All Segments
How Much Will China Risk for Taiwan? – Sarah Paine (Naval War College)
3 segments available
Full Episode: https://youtu.be/YcVSgYz5SJ8 (October 2023) Transcript: https://www.dwarkeshpatel.com/p/sarah-paine Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/sarah-c-m-paine-how-xi-putin-think-maritime-vs-continental/id1516093381?i=1000630184469 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/episode/073V9sl5GLf7R0JlMSFdK7?si=Z3Eu2BZiQiCe1rDINzCZDQ Follow me on Twitter: https://twitter.com/dwarkesh_sp
Segments Timeline
China's Economic Miracle and Political Monopoly
Sarah Paine discusses the remarkable economic achievements of China since Deng Xiaoping, highlighting how hundreds of millions have been lifted out of poverty through reintegration into the global maritime order. However, she emphasizes the Communist Party's struggle to maintain its monopoly on power amidst rising demands for autonomy from an educated populace and successful businesses.
"this is what's so tragic about China think about how many people have been lifted out of poverty so many since dung sha ping hundreds of millions it is a great achievement of our lifetimes it's happen..."
The Nationalism Card: China's Last Resort
In this segment, Paine explains how the Chinese Communist Party has shifted to a nationalism narrative as its primary tool for unification and control. With corruption and economic growth faltering, the party is increasingly framing Taiwan as a nationalistic issue, which could lead to significant geopolitical consequences if pursued aggressively.
"and so that went in tandem for a number of years now we're at the inflection point where you have a lot of educated people and businesses who are really integrated in the world and they want to make a..."
The Consequences of Conflict Over Taiwan
Paine warns of the potential brutality of a Chinese military action against Taiwan, drawing parallels to the situation in Ukraine. She argues that ignoring Taiwan and allowing it to operate independently could benefit both China and Taiwan economically, while emphasizing the importance of maintaining sovereignty in the global order and the long-term effects of sanctions on China.
"card and they're playing it butt hard because it's a unifying thing for Chinese for the Han ethnic group in China um who constitute the overwhelming majority uh that Taiwan should be theirs it's a mis..."