
48 segments available
Jacob Kimmel thinks he can find the transcription factors to reverse aging. We do a deep dive on why this might be plausible and why evolution hasn’t already optimized for longevity. We also talk about why drug discovery has been getting exponentially harder, and what a new platform for biological understanding to speed up progress would look like. As a bonus, we get into the nitty gritty of gene delivery and Jacob’s controversial takes on CAR-T cells. For full disclosure, I am an angel investor in NewLimit. This did not impact my decision to interview Jacob, nor the questions I asked him. 𝐄𝐏𝐈𝐒𝐎𝐃𝐄 𝐋𝐈𝐍𝐊𝐒 * Transcript: https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/jacob-kimmel * Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/why-evolution-designed-us-to-die-fast-how-we-can-change/id1516093381?i=1000722975425 * Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/episode/3xUwUYLpjGI3bxsEM114jq?si=mo4FBuI4RoG42PUYYCFUDw 𝐒𝐏𝐎𝐍𝐒𝐎𝐑𝐒 * Hudson River Trading uses deep learning to tackle one of the world's most complex systems: global capital allocation. They have a massive in-house GPU cluster, and they’re constantly adding new racks of B200s to ensure their researchers are never constrained by compute. Explore opportunities at https://hudsonrivertrading.com/dwarkesh * Google’s Gemini CLI turns ideas into working applications FAST, no coding required. It built a complete podcast post-production tool in 10 minutes, including fully functional backend logic, and the entire build used less than 10% of Gemini’s session context. Check it out on Github now: https://goo.gle/4mw9BNg To sponsor a future episode, visit https://www.dwarkesh.com/advertise 𝐓𝐈𝐌𝐄𝐒𝐓𝐀𝐌𝐏𝐒 00:00:00 – Three reasons evolution didn't optimize for longevity 00:12:48 – Why didn't humans evolve their own antibiotics? 00:26:08 – De-aging cells via epigenetic reprogramming 00:45:24 – Viral vectors and other delivery mechanisms 01:07:03 – Synthetic transcription factors 01:10:13 – Can virtual cells break Eroom's Law? 01:32:13 – Economic models for pharma
Jacob Kimmel discusses the reasons evolution may not have optimized human longevity. He explores the selective pressures that influence lifespan, the constraints of genetic optimization, and the implications of high baseline hazard rates during human evolution. Kimmel argues that understanding these factors can reveal opportunities for interventions in aging and health.
"You always have to start by asking yourself, did evolution spend a lot of time optimizing this? If yes, my job is going to be insanely hard. If no, potentially there are some lowhanging fruit. And so ..."
In this segment, Kimmel draws parallels between the evolution of longevity and intelligence. He examines how high hazard rates in early human populations may have limited the selection for intelligence and longevity. Kimmel suggests that the age at which fluid intelligence peaks could be linked to population dynamics during evolution, raising questions about the interplay between lifespan and cognitive abilities.
"aging. That's getting eaten by a tiger. That's falling off a cliff. That's like scraping your foot on a rock and getting an infection and dying from that. And so from the best evidence we have, the ba..."
Kimmel introduces the concept of aging as a regularizer in evolutionary terms. He discusses how extending lifespan without addressing aging could negatively impact genetic fitness. This segment delves into kin selection and the implications of demographic aging on population dynamics, suggesting that evolution may favor turnover over longevity.
"thesis. You know, I think in biology in general, when you're trying to engineer a given property, be it being healthier longer, be it making something more intelligent, and this is true even at the mi..."
This segment focuses on the constraints faced by evolution in optimizing human longevity. Kimmel compares genetic optimization to machine learning models, explaining how mutation rates and population sizes limit evolutionary adaptations. He highlights the historical pressures of infectious diseases as a primary factor shaping human genetics, suggesting that these constraints hinder the evolution of longevity.
"very intermediate goals that last an hour or a couple hours, it's actually surprising that any signal propagates across a 20 20 year horizon. Um, by the way, on the point about fluid intelligence spea..."
Kimmel concludes by arguing that because evolution has not optimized for longevity, there are potential opportunities for intervention in aging. He emphasizes the simplicity of modern medicines and their significant benefits, using antibiotics as a clear example of how evolutionary pressures can be countered. This segment sets the stage for discussing the potential of reversing aging through scientific advancements.
">> the third piece is basically optimization constraints so I think this is where another ML analogy is helpful which is something like well actually a two-layer neural network is technically a univer..."
In this segment, Kimmel elaborates on the Red Queen Hypothesis, illustrating the constant evolutionary competition between pathogens and their hosts. He explains how bacteria and fungi evolve rapidly to outpace each other, leading to a scenario where even if humans could produce antibiotics, pathogens would likely evolve resistance quickly. This discussion sheds light on the complexities of evolutionary biology and its impact on human health.
"antibiotics. Yeah, it's actually an excellent question that I haven't heard posed before. Um so we think about where do antibiotics come from? To your point, we could synthesize them. They're just met..."
Kimmel hypothesizes about the existence of historical antibiotics that may have been effective in the past but are now obsolete due to bacterial evolution. He discusses how remnants of ancient antibiotic genes could still exist in bacterial DNA, providing insights into the evolutionary history of pathogens and their interactions with hosts. This segment emphasizes the potential for rediscovering lost antibiotic mechanisms through genetic research.
"getting there, is that bacteria and other types of microorganisms are very well adapted to building these complex metabolic cascades that are necessary to make something like antibiotics. And they are..."
This segment dives into the co-evolution of pathogens and hosts, using the example of the TRIM5-alpha gene in humans. Kimmel explains how evolutionary pressures have led to the loss of certain defenses against viruses like HIV, illustrating the complexities of genetic evolution and pathogen resistance. The discussion highlights the challenges faced in developing effective treatments against evolving pathogens.
"sequences. In mammals where I do know a bit better, we do have examples of this where there is this co-evolution of pathogen and host. Imagine you have some antiathogen gene A fighting off some virus ..."
Kimmel discusses the role of gene duplication in evolution, explaining how it allows organisms to adapt to new challenges without losing original functions. He emphasizes that gene duplication provides a backup, enabling mutations to occur in one copy while preserving the other. This segment provides a deeper understanding of how evolutionary mechanisms can lead to increased adaptability in response to environmental pressures.
"a situation where you can go in and take human cells and make just a couple edits in that trim 5 alpha gene and it's currently protecting against a virus which no longer exists and you can edit it bac..."
In this segment, Kimmel addresses the challenges of evolutionary adaptations, particularly in the context of developing defenses against pathogens. He explains how multiple mutations may be required to adapt to new threats, and how the evolutionary process can be hindered by negative fitness impacts. This discussion underscores the intricate nature of evolutionary biology and its implications for health and longevity.
"a minimal number of mutations, but then you lose its original function. So we have this nice feature of the genome, which is it can just copy and paste. And so occasionally what'll happen in evolution..."
Kimmel explains how genes can be categorized by homology, revealing the evolutionary relationships between them. He discusses how gene families often arise from duplication events, leading to specialized functions. This segment highlights the significance of gene evolution in understanding biological processes and the potential for leveraging this knowledge in medical advancements.
"instance, in trim 5 alpha for this particular phenomenon we're talking about for memory, but it's in like the tens. It's not it's not that you need massive kilobase scale rearrangements. It's actually..."
Kimmel discusses the complexities of aging, arguing that it is not caused by a single factor but rather a combination of molecular regulations. He emphasizes the need for a multifaceted approach to anti-aging treatments, suggesting that future medicines will extend healthspan but may not address all aspects of aging simultaneously. This segment provides a nuanced perspective on the challenges of developing effective longevity therapies.
"Okay. Um, back to aging. You'll cancel your evening plans. I've got so many questions for you and I keep going. Um, so the second reason you gave which was that there's selective pressure against peop..."
Jacob Kimmel discusses the multifaceted nature of aging and the challenges in developing medicines that can effectively add healthy years to life. He emphasizes that evolution has not optimized for longevity, leading to a decline in health over time. Kimmel introduces the concept of epigenetic reprogramming as a potential solution to address the degradation of the epigenome with age.
"There's not going to be a singular magic pill, but rather you're going to have medicines that add multiple healthy years to your life, years you can't otherwise get back, but it's not going to fix eve..."
In this segment, Kimmel elaborates on the process of epigenetic reprogramming, likening transcription factors to orchestra conductors that regulate gene expression. He explains how the epigenome influences cellular functions and how its degradation with age can lead to increased susceptibility to diseases. Kimmel's goal is to restore the epigenome to a youthful state to improve cellular function.
"All right, back to Jacob. All right, so um uh evolution didn't select for aging. What are you doing? What's your approach at New Limit that you think is um is likely to find the true cause of aging? >..."
Kimmel addresses the complexities involved in using transcription factors to revert aged cells to a younger state. He discusses the potential for unintended consequences when modifying cell states and the importance of ensuring that cells maintain their identity and function. Kimmel highlights the need for careful measurement of gene expression and cellular functionality to avoid pathological outcomes.
"combinations of these transcription factors that are able to actually remodel the epiggenome so that they can bind to just the right places in the DNA and then shift the chemical marks back toward tha..."
Kimmel references the groundbreaking work of Shinya Yamanaka, who identified four transcription factors capable of reprogramming adult cells into embryonic stem cells. He discusses the implications of this discovery for aging research and the challenges of applying similar methods to reverse cellular aging without causing harmful changes in cell identity or function.
"also measure any potential detrimental effects that that emerge. >> So there are canonical examples where you can seemingly reverse the age of a cell for instance at the level of a transcriptto but si..."
In this segment, Kimmel explains why artificial intelligence is crucial for advancing research in cellular reprogramming and aging. He contrasts the straightforward success criteria in Yamanaka's experiments with the complexities of measuring success in aging. Kimmel emphasizes the need for predictive models to efficiently explore the vast combinations of transcription factors necessary for effective interventions.
"question, but it will help me understand why an AI model is necessary to do any of this work. So, you mentioned the Yamanaka factors. From my understanding, the way he identified these four transcript..."
In this segment, Kimmel elaborates on how transcription factors are designed by evolution to have modular effects, allowing for significant phenotypic changes with minimal genetic edits. He draws parallels between the developmental processes in biology and the potential for manipulating these factors to achieve desired outcomes in cellular aging and rejuvenation.
"imagine some arbitrary mappings as well. And so I think as you get to these more complex problems that don't have the same features that Sha benefited from, which were the ability again to measure suc..."
Kimmel presents a compelling analogy comparing transcription factors to levers in a codebase, suggesting that small changes can lead to large effects in cellular behavior. He discusses the implications of this for drug design, highlighting how targeting transcription factors could revolutionize medicine by allowing for precise manipulation of gene expression.
"large changes in phenotype. Otherwise, it would just take a very long time across evolutionary history for enough mutations to accumulate in some duplicated copy of the gene for you to evolve a new TF..."
Kimmel addresses the role of transcription factors in pathogens like HIV, explaining how they exploit these biological mechanisms to persist in the host. He contrasts this with the challenges of drug development, noting that while many existing drugs indirectly affect transcription factors, direct targeting remains elusive due to the complexities of their interactions within cells.
">> Yeah, you're you're sort of hinting that uh if we analogize it to some code base, we're going to find a couple lines that are like commented out that's like daging, you know, and then like unhyen o..."
Jacob Kimmel discusses the limitations of current drug delivery methods in targeting transcription factors directly. He explains how traditional small molecule drugs and recombinant proteins struggle to effectively interact with these large molecular targets, leading to indirect approaches that may not be optimal. Kimmel highlights the need for innovative solutions to overcome these challenges in drug development.
"what's occurring. And so that ultimately leads to transcription factors being some of the final aectors in these signaling cascades. So a lot of the drugs we have that for instance inhibit a particula..."
In this segment, Kimmel explores new nucleic acid and genetic medicines, particularly the use of lipid nanoparticles and viral vectors for delivering RNA and DNA into cells. He emphasizes the potential of these methods to target transcription factors more effectively than traditional approaches, paving the way for advancements in therapies aimed at reversing aging.
"think it's pretty exciting is we now have new nucleic acid and genetic medicines where you can for instance deliver RNAs to a cell that can get through using tricks like lipid nanoparticles. You wrap ..."
Kimmel shares his vision for the future of medicine delivery, suggesting that engineered cells could become the primary method for administering therapies. He draws parallels to the immune system's ability to patrol the body and deliver signals, proposing that similar engineered cells could provide targeted treatment for various conditions, including aging.
"types with lipid nanop particles. So even if nothing else worked for the next several decades I think companies like ours would have more than enough problems to solve and with the cells that we can a..."
In this insightful discussion, Kimmel explains how the immune system's T-cells and B-cells could inspire new therapeutic strategies. He discusses the potential for these cells to be engineered to deliver specific treatments throughout the body, highlighting the interconnectedness of bodily systems and the implications for treating aging and other diseases.
"which is how do I patrol the body, find arbitrary signals in the environment, and then deliver some important cargo there when some set of events happens. how do I you know find a specific place and o..."
Kimmel addresses the implications of targeting specific cell types for aging therapies. He argues that even partial interventions can yield systemic benefits due to the interconnected nature of bodily systems. Drawing on transplant studies, he illustrates how improving one organ's function can positively impact overall health, suggesting a holistic approach to aging treatment.
"think that's ultimately how delivery will get solved. We've got many many stepping stones along the way. But if I could like clone myself and work on an even riskier endeavor, that's probably what I w..."
In this concluding segment, Kimmel discusses findings from transplant experiments that reveal how young organs can confer health benefits beyond their immediate function. He emphasizes the potential for therapies targeting aging to have broader implications for health, reinforcing the idea that addressing aging at the cellular level can lead to improved outcomes across multiple systems.
"delivery folks credit, they're currently ahead. There are currently no reprogramming medicines for aging and there are medicines that deliver nucleic acids. So like they're still winning the race agai..."
In this segment, Kimmel explores the role of hormones like GLP-1 and GIP in health, discussing their unexpected benefits beyond weight loss. He illustrates how targeting a small number of cells can lead to significant health improvements, including cardiovascular health and neuroprotection, emphasizing the interconnected nature of bodily systems.
"sort of implies the inverse may also exist. >> Is this related to why has so many downstream positive effects that seem even not totally related to its um effects just on making you leaner? Yeah, I th..."
Kimmel explains the potential of transcription factors in drug development, noting that their low expression levels in the genome make them ideal candidates for therapies. He discusses the feasibility of delivering multiple transcription factors using current mRNA technologies, suggesting that the payload size will not be a limiting factor in future treatments.
">> Interesting. How big will the payload have to be? >> Uh, how many transcription factors? >> Yeah, >> I think just a countable number. I think some of those that we found today that have efficacy ar..."
Kimmel delves into the concept of epigenetic reprogramming, discussing how targeted edits can lead to lasting changes in cell behavior. He presents evidence that these changes can persist for years, raising the possibility of one-time treatments that could significantly extend healthy lifespan.
"either. >> And is it would it have to be a chronic treatment or could it just be a onetime dose? >> In principle, it could be one time. I think that would be an overstatement for today, but I can sort..."
In this segment, Kimmel considers the potential of non-human transcription factors in developing therapies. He discusses the evolutionary basis for human transcription factors and the possibility of using synthetic or modified factors to enhance reprogramming efforts, suggesting that innovation in this area could lead to breakthroughs in longevity treatments.
"don't want to overstate. Um, we do have data that these positive effects can last several weeks after a dose. And so you could imagine even without many leaps of faith up toward this upper bound limit..."
Kimmel addresses the limitations of cellular therapies in treating age-related conditions like skin sagging. He explains the role of elastin in skin elasticity and suggests that future therapies may need to engineer cells to restore or enhance the polymerization process, highlighting the complexity of aging at the cellular level.
"about the effects of aging which are um okay so I don't know your skin starts to sag because of the effects of gravity over the course of decades. Is that a cellular process? How would how would some ..."
Kimmel introduces Eroom's Law, which describes the declining efficiency of drug discovery over time. He contrasts this with Moore's Law in technology, explaining how the increasing costs of developing new medicines have not been matched by proportional increases in returns, and discusses the implications for the future of biotech investment and innovation.
">> Interesting. Okay. What is Arum's law? Iram's law is a funny portman who created by a friend of mine Jack Scanell where he inverted the notion of Moor's law which is the doubling of compute density..."
In this segment, Kimmel elaborates on the complexities of identifying the right genetic targets for drug development. He explains that while biotech firms may excel at creating antibodies for specific genes, the real challenge lies in determining which genes to target for effective treatments, underscoring the vast unknowns in drug discovery.
">> So, you need to then be able to find medicines that treat most people. All of us will one day get sick and die. So, arguably the TAM for any really successful medicine could be everybody on planet ..."
Kimmel introduces the concept of a 'virtual cell' as a model to enhance drug discovery. He explains how measuring gene expressions and perturbations can lead to insights about disease states and potential treatments, aiming to create a comprehensive model that predicts cellular responses to various genetic interventions.
"Yeah. In this particular case, if we we bound ourselves to we must use small molecules as our modality, then there are lots of targets which are very difficult to drug. There are many other modalities..."
In this segment, Kimmel discusses the methodology behind training models to predict cellular states based on genetic perturbations. He draws parallels to language models, explaining how initial training can lead to more targeted applications in drug discovery, particularly in understanding aging and disease progression.
">> So there are multiple ways one might approach this problem. the most common today. Um, this is often what people are describing when they talk about a virtual cell. This is sort of a a very nebulou..."
Kimmel explores the idea of developing general-purpose models in biology that can adapt to various therapeutic needs. He emphasizes the importance of understanding not just how to manipulate genes, but also what cellular states to aim for in treating diseases, drawing comparisons to advancements in AI and machine learning.
"that's another version of what would a all-encompassing model look like where you actually have compounding returns in drug discovery. >> Right. And you basically described um one of the models you gu..."
Kimmel reflects on the evolution of perturbation techniques in drug discovery, explaining how advancements in sequencing technology have improved the ability to analyze cellular responses to genetic changes. He discusses the significance of these techniques in understanding complex biological systems and their potential for future breakthroughs.
"These are all questions you can ask. They're not the ones we're going after, but that that is the more general broader vision. >> This is so similar to in LLMs. You have first imitation learning with ..."
Jacob Kimmel discusses the evolution of perturbation technology in developmental biology, highlighting the advancements made since its inception in 2016. He explains how the integration of new genes into cell genomes allows researchers to measure gene activity and understand cellular responses, emphasizing the improvements in sequencing technology that have made large-scale experiments feasible.
"Potentially. It's more like developmental biologists locked in a room as my friend Cole Trapnel would say. >> Um, it seems like what you're describing seems quite similar to perturb. And we've had per..."
In this segment, Kimmel elaborates on the technical challenges faced in gene detection during perturbation experiments. He compares the early inefficiencies of sequencing to a poorly labeled experiment, illustrating how advancements have improved the accuracy and reliability of data collection in genetic research.
"ask questions like, well, I've turned on genes A and C. What did it do to the rest of the cell? So that's the general premise of the technology. And so it's useful to just set that up because it expla..."
Kimmel explains how advancements in technology have enabled the scaling of genetic experiments to millions of cells in a single day. He draws parallels between the development of virtual cells and LLM dynamics, discussing the potential for companies to create and lease virtual cell models for various research applications.
"They've all improved to the degree where now you can actually operate at scale. And then groups like ours have had to do a bunch of work in order to actually enable combinatorial perturbations, turnin..."
In this segment, Kimmel discusses New Limit's approach to gene therapy, focusing on the integration of proprietary data to predict the effects of transcription factors on aging. He emphasizes the importance of targeting specific cell types for effective medicine delivery and the potential for creating groundbreaking products in the field.
"different companies that have um you know are doing these cheap uh perturb like experiments and building their own virtual cells or at least a couple um and then they're like leasing this out to other..."
Kimmel addresses the economic challenges facing the pharmaceutical industry, particularly regarding reimbursement models for long-term therapies. He proposes innovative solutions like pay-for-performance models that could incentivize insurers to cover treatments that provide long-term health benefits, despite the complexities of the current healthcare system.
"carving out a region of this massive parameter space and saying if we can learn the distribution of effects even just in this small region it's going to be really effective for us and we can make real..."
In this discussion, Kimmel explores the implications of the gray market for pharmaceuticals and how traditional companies can maintain profitability amidst emerging competition. He highlights the importance of IP enforcement and the potential for direct-to-consumer models to reshape the landscape of drug distribution and access.
">> Interesting. And then um this is more more a question about the broader pharma industry rather than just new limit which is that in the future how are people going to make money if you have you kno..."
Kimmel reflects on the growing percentage of GDP spent on healthcare and the need for a shift towards funding innovative treatments rather than merely administering existing ones. He discusses the potential impact of new therapies on overall healthcare costs and the importance of developing effective reimbursement strategies for long-term health solutions.
"measuring that. So that's a big a big challenge in this industry is like how would you demonstrate that any one of these medicines is still working for the patient. In the few examples we have today, ..."
Jacob Kimmel discusses the allocation of healthcare resources, emphasizing the need to invest more in developing new treatments rather than merely administering existing ones. He highlights the inefficiencies in the current healthcare system, where a significant portion of GDP is spent on maintaining the status quo instead of innovating for better health outcomes.
"looked the numbers up, but the overwhelming majority of this is going to administering treatments that have already been invented. Um, which is good, but nowhere near as good as spending this enormous..."
In this segment, Kimmel explores the potential impact of new de-aging technologies on healthcare costs. He argues that preventative medicines could reduce the overall burden on the healthcare system by minimizing the need for expensive interventions in later life, thus shifting costs from administration to pharmaceuticals.
"these are things that biotech probably isn't going to be able to solve as an industry alone. That's probably a larger a larger economic problem. But when you think about how will this affect sort of t..."
Kimmel explains the evolving landscape of the pharmaceutical industry, where smaller biotech firms are leading early drug discovery. He discusses how traditional pharmaceutical companies are adapting by collaborating with these nimble startups to harness innovative ideas and technologies, reflecting a shift in R&D strategies.
">> Okay, final question. Um, so pharma is spending billions of dollars per new drug it comes up with and surely they have noticed that the lack of some general platform or some general model has made ..."
In this concluding segment, Kimmel elaborates on the trend of pharmaceutical companies relying on external innovation departments to source new ideas from biotech firms. He highlights the importance of partnerships in advancing drug development and the necessity for large pharma to adapt to a rapidly changing landscape.
"something like 70% of molecules approved in a given year come from originally small biotechs rather than large pharmas even though you look at the actual like dollars of R&D spend on the balance sheet..."