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a16z Podcast | It's Complicated
17 segments available
For better or worse, most of the computing systems that run much of our lives (whether invisibly or visibly) have become increasingly complex -- they're not fully engineered; they're almost grown. And with that we enter a brave new world of "biological" (as opposed to a more "physics") mindset applied to computing. It's more like evolution, horns and all. This isn't just abstract or backend-only stuff. Complex system design affects everything from datacenters and SaaS to word processors and cars, touching human lives in very tangible ways. So how do you solve problems in such systems? How do you even begin to understand "the system" in the first place? And is there anything out there yet that lets us test and verify the output of these systems? (Inquiring minds want to know!) All this and more in this episode of the a16z Podcast, a riff on the theme of "complicated" with complexity scientist Samuel Arbesman and author of the new book Overcomplicated. Also joining the conversation (with Sonal Chokshi) are a16z board partner Steven Sinofsky and research and deal team head Frank Chen. image: brewbooks / Flickr
Segments Timeline
Welcome to Complexity
In this opening segment, Sonal introduces the theme of the podcast, focusing on the complexities of modern computing systems. She sets the stage for a discussion with experts Steven Sinofsky, Frank Chen, and Samuel Arbesman, highlighting the tension between complicated back-end systems and deceptively simple front-end designs.
"hi everyone welcome to the a6 & Z podcast I am sonal today's episode is one of our hallway conversations where we just riff on a topic for a bit and the topic we're talking about today is the theme of..."
Understanding Phones: A Product Manager's Dilemma
Sonal poses a classic product manager interview question about how phones work, revealing the complexity that most people are unaware of. The discussion highlights the gap between user experience and the intricate technology behind devices, emphasizing that many systems are created without full understanding.
"alright guys let's just get started I'm excited to talk about this topic so Sam I was reading the book and one of the first things that occurred to me is I wanted to ask you my favorite product manage..."
The Illusion of Understanding
The conversation delves into the illusion of understanding complex systems. The speakers discuss how even product managers struggle to explain the underlying technology, illustrating the disconnect between user perception and the reality of system complexity.
"been shielded from that complexity the reason I ask is because that's what really jumped out at me when I was reading the book which is like we create systems that nobody understands and so exact turn..."
The Role of Experts in Complexity
Sonal and the guests explore the role of experts in understanding complex systems. They discuss the challenges of relying on specialists when no single person can grasp the entirety of a system, stressing the importance of having a basic understanding of technology as users.
"send me a nice email to thank me how does that email get to me right and the same exact thing right this cascade of technology that's layer and layer and so what you're looking for if you're trying to..."
Embracing Complexity: A Double-Edged Sword
The discussion shifts to the cultural acceptance of complexity in technology. The speakers debate the benefits and drawbacks of embracing complicated systems, questioning when it is acceptable to celebrate hacks and when it poses risks to critical systems like healthcare.
"it's fine I think the the major problem though is that it's one thing to say that oh there's some experts somewhere who can understand the system its entirety and really knows what's going on we can k..."
Iterative Tinkering in Technology
The guests discuss the iterative nature of technology development, likening it to biological evolution. They emphasize the need for deliberate growth in systems while acknowledging that many technologies evolve in a messy, unengineered manner, leading to unforeseen complexities.
"hack hack is gone from like a problem to like we now celebrate it with hackathons and and so I'm trying to understand or think about you know why is it good to embrace the complicated nature of things..."
The Biological Mindset in Computing
The conversation highlights the shift towards a biological mindset in computing, where systems are seen as living entities that evolve over time. The speakers discuss how this perspective can help in understanding and managing complex systems, particularly in software development.
"mess I do think though I ideally we should be deliberate in how we grow these systems and change them over time certainly if we're building something from scratch we should try to be as logical and dr..."
Change Review Boards: Navigating Complexity
The guests explain the role of Change Review Boards in managing complex systems. They describe how these boards convene to assess changes in technology, illustrating the collaborative effort required to navigate the intricacies of modern computing environments.
"have an architect but if you look at what happens inside companies as these complicated sites are actually being built what happens when you have a very complicated change is you have this entity call..."
Self-Driving Cars: A Case Study in Complexity
The discussion turns to self-driving cars as a prime example of complex systems that impact daily life. The speakers explore how algorithms make decisions and the challenges of understanding their learning processes, emphasizing the tangible effects on users.
"causing that and is it a network problems that storage problems a database problem no single person can understand it and so you need to have groups of people to try to figure things out and it's not ..."
Programming Paradigms: From Physics to Biology
The guests discuss the evolution of programming paradigms from deterministic to probabilistic systems. They highlight the challenges of integrating traditional programming with new deep learning techniques, emphasizing the need for a new approach to understanding technology.
"very tangible ways yeah I think this is one of the fascinating changes to the way computers are being programmed increasingly right so for basically up until this point in time programming has been fu..."
User Expectations vs. System Complexity
The conversation addresses user expectations regarding technology reliability. The speakers reflect on the low tolerance for errors in critical systems, contrasting it with the acceptance of complexity in biological systems, and the need for a shift in mindset.
"that I'm curious how in a sociological sense like because they've been like say 75 years of computers being these exact precise things and you know and your use the analogy of physics and biology in t..."
Learning from Failures in Technology
The guests discuss the importance of learning from failures in technology. They emphasize the need for a humble approach to understanding complex systems, recognizing that failures can lead to better insights and improvements in technology.
"say don't panic hasn't really worked for your writer I'm guessing like when and actually I've been on calls with super famous writers and don't panic just it's biological the next evolution you know D..."
Chaos Monkey: Testing Resilience
The speakers introduce the concept of 'Chaos Monkey,' a tool used to test system resilience by intentionally disrupting subsystems. They draw parallels between biological learning and technological robustness, highlighting the need for adaptive strategies in system design.
"out of commission and see how the overall system responds live it'll just knock out portions of Netflix and see how it responds the idea is to lower the gap between how they assume the system works an..."
Biological vs. Physics Thinking in Technology
The discussion contrasts biological and physics thinking in technology design. The guests argue for a shift towards recognizing the complexity and messiness of systems, advocating for a more nuanced understanding of technology's evolution.
"chaos monkey is a great example of this big that's happened inside data centers precisely because we had to introduce biological thinking rather than physics thinking into even designing and troublesh..."
The Evolution of Data Centers
The speakers explore the evolution of data centers from traditional models to modern, resilient architectures. They discuss how companies like Google have pioneered designs that anticipate failure, reflecting a biological approach to system reliability.
"now of course there are many physicists who dwell in details in our many biologists who have grand theories and computational models so it's not a perfect way of describing the two different groups of..."
The Future of Software and User Perception
The conversation concludes with reflections on the future of software and user perceptions of technology. The guests emphasize the need for a cultural shift in how users understand and interact with complex systems, advocating for a balance between acceptance and inquiry.
"when you look at like the types of terms used to describe those types of data centers like resilient or robustness like these are the types of terms that are often used when thinking about an ecosyste..."
Closing Thoughts
In the closing segment, the guests summarize the key points discussed throughout the episode, reiterating the importance of understanding complexity in technology and the need for ongoing dialogue about its implications for society.
"still fascinated by the fact that the people at the end of the services still think of them as physics yeah I don't I just don't see a tolerance for failure because what happens is immediately people ..."