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Matjaž Leonardis - Science, Identity and Probability
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Matjaž Leonardis has co-written a paper with David Deutsch about the Popper-Miller Theorem. In this episode, we talk about that as well as the dangers of the scientific identity, the nature of scientific progress, and advice for young people who want to be polymaths. Episode Website: https://www.dwarkeshpatel.com/p/matjaz-leonardis Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/3AyRz5Z Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3PZ5R5D Follow Matjaž's excellent Twitter: https://twitter.com/MatjazLeonardis Follow My Twitter: https://twitter.com/dwarkesh_sp
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Welcome to the Lunar Society
In the introduction to the podcast, the host expresses gratitude to listeners for their support and shares updates about the podcast's progress. He highlights the importance of community engagement through sharing episodes and mentions personal contributions from listeners that have helped enhance the podcast's quality.
"hello and welcome to the lunar society sorry it's been so long since the tyler account interview i want to thank all of you for joining this podcast so early on i especially want to thank those of you..."
Welcome to the Lunar Society
In the introduction to the podcast, the host expresses gratitude to listeners for their support and shares updates about the podcast's progress. He highlights the importance of community engagement through sharing episodes and mentions personal donations that have helped enhance the podcast's quality.
"hello and welcome to the lunar society sorry it's been so long since the tyler account interview i want to thank all of you for joining this podcast so early on i especially want to thank those of you..."
Introducing Matjaž Leonardis
The host introduces Matjaž Leonardis, who has co-authored a paper with David Deutsch on the Popper-Miller Theorem. The discussion will cover significant themes such as the dangers of scientific identity, the nature of scientific progress, and advice for aspiring polymaths, setting the stage for a deep dive into these topics.
"manchas is covered in a paper with david deutsch about the problem miller theorem and we get into that as well as the dangers of the scientific identity the nature of scientific progress advice to you..."
Introducing Matjaž Leonardis
The host introduces Matjaž Leonardis, who has co-written a paper with David Deutsch on the Popper-Miller Theorem. The conversation will explore significant themes such as the dangers of scientific identity, the nature of scientific progress, and advice for aspiring polymaths.
"for your gift i also want to let you know that i'll be writing daily at dwarkash.stack.com so please sign up there to receive my blog via email the newest post i have out is titled if prediction marke..."
The Nature of Science
Matjaž discusses the complexities of defining science and the confusion that arises from trying to distinguish it from other disciplines. He argues that the identity of being a scientist can be counterproductive, leading individuals to question their contributions rather than focusing on their inquiries.
"here's matcha's leonardus okay masha's you have court written a paper with david deutsch about uh bass theorem but before we get into that let's talk about the big picture questions science uh what is..."
Defining Science: A Complex Identity
Matjaž Leonardis discusses the complexities of defining science and the confusion surrounding the identity of scientists. He argues that the label 'scientist' can be counterproductive, leading individuals to question their contributions and roles within the scientific community, which may hinder genuine inquiry and understanding.
"doing is science um they they think they are scientists and wonder what is it that they should do in their capacity as scientists um and i think that often has a counterproductive effect on on on basi..."
The Historical Context of Science
Leonardis explores the historical evolution of the term 'scientist' and its implications. He notes that prior to the 19th century, individuals engaged in scientific inquiry were often referred to as natural philosophers, suggesting that the modern identity may impose unnecessary constraints on the pursuit of knowledge.
"people not consider themselves natural philosophers before then um there is definitely been sort of names for for um for this role um the the so so one way to sort of think about it is that people peo..."
Historical Context of Scientists
Matjaž provides historical insights into the term 'scientist,' which was coined in the early 19th century. He emphasizes that individuals engaged in scientific inquiry existed long before this label and that the perception of science has evolved over time, impacting how people view their roles.
"they they wonder whether what they are doing is science um they they think they are scientists and wonder what is it that they should do in their capacity as scientists um and i think that often has a..."
The Role of Universities
The conversation shifts to the role of universities in supporting scientific inquiry. Matjaž argues that while universities provide valuable resources and community for researchers, the traditional understanding of science may not fully encapsulate the diverse activities taking place within these institutions.
"think about you know uh what what is a scientist and uh sorry who is a scientist and what is science a bit too much but i don't know the history here do people not consider themselves natural philosop..."
The Role of Universities in Science
The conversation shifts to the role of universities in supporting scientific inquiry. Leonardis argues that while universities play a crucial role in fostering collaboration and resource sharing, the traditional understanding of science may not fully encapsulate the diverse activities taking place within these institutions.
"activity when one is trying to understand nature and uh you know there'll be kind of a special social role for that like all of that obviously had to develop um but but it does seem to be the case tha..."
Understanding Scientific Inquiry
Matjaž elaborates on the idea that scientific inquiry does not need to be viewed as a unified activity. He compares it to entrepreneurship, where various individuals pursue different interests without the need for a singular definition of their work, suggesting that this perspective could enhance understanding.
"um and you know they were they were able to sort of do it just fine and one of the things that uh you know at some point that obviously changed um you know uh this sort of idea that that one is engage..."
Diverse Activities Beyond Science
Leonardis illustrates the variety of activities occurring within academic institutions, emphasizing that not all pursuits can be classified under the umbrella of science. He compares this to entrepreneurship, where individuals engage in various projects without the need for a unified definition of their activities.
"know it is useful to have institutions that you know kind of keep all the relevant books at the same place and kind of get some of the same people um um you know at the same place that sort of organiz..."
The Pitfalls of Scientific Methodology
The discussion continues with Leonardis critiquing the rigid adherence to specific scientific methodologies. He argues that this focus can stifle creativity and hinder the natural progression of inquiry, suggesting that a more flexible approach may yield better results in understanding complex problems.
"you know somebody who was interested in you know liquid helium and uh he would be writing about it and talking with all the people that were interested in it and then you would have another person and..."
Critique of Scientific Methodology
Matjaž critiques the prevailing notion that there is a specific scientific method that must be adhered to. He argues that this belief can hinder creativity and problem-solving, as it may lead individuals to conform to rigid frameworks rather than exploring questions organically.
"that i mean clearly they're not doing construction or um you know building archers or something like that so so like there is an activity ie trying to understand natural world that seems to work bette..."
The Dangers of Self-Consciousness in Science
The discussion continues with Matjaž highlighting the potential pitfalls of self-consciousness in scientific endeavors. He suggests that overthinking one's role as a scientist can detract from the genuine pursuit of knowledge and understanding.
"particular way of looking at that activity is is the right one um is is less clear okay so you do identify there's a special role for universities and they're doing a distinctive distinctive activity ..."
The Misconception of Scientific Rigor
Leonardis addresses the misconception that scientific rigor is synonymous with following a strict methodology. He posits that this belief can lead to self-consciousness among researchers, potentially detracting from their ability to engage deeply with their subjects and pursue innovative solutions.
"right uh comparison might be um um for kind of the the particular review that i have it's just like you know um um you know um like like people have this idea of an entrepreneur right um well you know..."
Popper's Perspective on Scientific Method
The conversation touches on Karl Popper's views regarding scientific methodology. Leonardis references Popper's assertion that he taught a subject he believed did not exist, highlighting the philosophical debates surrounding the nature of scientific inquiry and the validity of established methods.
"there is this particular method in other words um that that you know one that one is somehow doing something more other than just being engaged um you know with a particular problem or question and pu..."
The Entrepreneurial Analogy
Matjaž draws an analogy between scientists and entrepreneurs, emphasizing that just as entrepreneurs pursue various ventures without questioning their entrepreneurial status, scientists should focus on their inquiries without being burdened by labels.
"you know evolution and that person would be sort of you know again writing about this talking with other people about it and you know you could have so on for for just a bunch of other things now you ..."
Reevaluating Scientific Identity
The conversation shifts to the implications of the scientific identity. Matjaž argues that the current understanding of science can lead to unnecessary scrutiny of individuals' contributions, which may stifle innovation and exploration in the field.
"review that i have it's just like you know um um you know um like like people have this idea of an entrepreneur right um well you know in a certain sense um you know and all these entrepreneurs are ki..."
The Method of Scientific Inquiry
Matjaž Leonardis discusses the importance of pursuing scientific questions with a specific method rather than allowing the logic of the problem to dictate the approach. He highlights the potential pitfalls of self-consciousness in scientific inquiry and argues for the value of understanding one's position within a framework of established methods, such as falsifiability.
"um uh you know the thinking is that you need to pursue the various questions with a specific method as opposed to just where kind of the logic of the problem itself leads you and i'm not saying this t..."
Popper's Perspective on Scientific Method
Matjaž references philosopher Karl Popper, who questioned the existence of a definitive scientific method. He shares insights from Popper's lectures, suggesting that the pursuit of knowledge should be more about engaging with questions rather than adhering to prescribed methodologies.
"scientists comes with this idea that there is this particular method in other words um that that you know one that one is somehow doing something more other than just being engaged um you know with a ..."
Popper's Paradox of Scientific Method
Leonardis references Karl Popper's lectures on scientific method, where Popper himself questioned the existence of a definitive scientific method. He explores the ambiguity in how scientists utilize methods and the historical context of scientific thought, emphasizing that understanding the natural world has evolved over time.
"there is a specific method or at least a family of methods right we have proper we have you know um falsifiability accessibility and you know we privilege these over other methods we could be using li..."
The Methodological Debate
Matjaž Leonardis discusses the importance of pursuing scientific questions with specific methods rather than allowing the logic of the problem to dictate the approach. He highlights the potential pitfalls of self-consciousness in scientific inquiry and the value of understanding one's position within a framework of established methods, referencing Karl Popper's views on scientific methodology.
"um uh you know the thinking is that you need to pursue the various questions with a specific method as opposed to just where kind of the logic of the problem itself leads you and i'm not saying this t..."
The Enlightenment and Methodology
In this segment, Leonardis reflects on the Enlightenment's impact on scientific thought and the debate surrounding the effectiveness of certain methods. He acknowledges the complexity of causality in scientific progress and the differing narratives about the Enlightenment's significance in shaping modern scientific inquiry.
"i think that that that is still like what what patterns work you know how one thinks about them and so on all of these things are kind of um more of a great mystery than an exact science to put it to ..."
Induction and the Limits of Reason
Leonardis delves into the philosophical challenges posed by induction, referencing Hume's skepticism about the reliability of reasoning from experience to general theories. He articulates the ongoing debate about the role of reason in understanding the natural world and the limitations inherent in inductive logic.
"and it does seem to be because of a family of methods right so doesn't the case of the success of the enlightenment lend credence to the idea that um certain methods are to be privileged and are more ..."
Popper's Paradox
Leonardis reflects on Karl Popper's lectures where he humorously claims to be a professor of a subject he believes doesn't exist. This segment explores the complexities of scientific methods and the ambiguity surrounding how scientists think and identify with their methodologies, emphasizing the mystery of understanding the natural world.
"there is a specific method or at least a family of methods right we have proper we have you know um falsifiability accessibility and you know we privilege these over other methods we could be using li..."
Introducing the Popper-Miller Theorem
Matjaž Leonardis introduces the Popper-Miller Theorem, co-authored with David Deutsch, which challenges the notion of probabilistic support in scientific theories. He explains the theorem's implications for understanding how evidence interacts with theories and the ongoing discourse surrounding inductive logic.
"how causality works with with most of these things um but but to this idea that it was due to to um a change in method i mean like well that's like a lot of people at the time had that idea but a lot ..."
The Enlightenment's Impact
In this segment, Leonardis examines the narrative surrounding the Enlightenment and its significance in scientific progress. He questions whether the changes in thought during this period were truly due to methodological advancements or if other factors, such as economic progress, played a more crucial role in fostering scientific understanding.
"what what patterns work you know how one thinks about them and so on all of these things are kind of um more of a great mystery than an exact science to put it to put it like that so then um to paraph..."
The Nature of Probabilistic Support
In this segment, Leonardis elaborates on the Popper-Miller Theorem, discussing how evidence does not confer inductive support on theories as commonly believed. He outlines the theorem's argument and its significance in the context of Bayesian reasoning and the challenges it presents to traditional views of scientific support.
"yeah that was a very interesting answer uh speaking of induction let's get into the paper you co-wrote with david that's coming out uh soon um so do you want to describe it oh sure so we um we wrote a..."
Induction and Reason
Leonardis discusses the philosophical challenges posed by the problem of induction, particularly in relation to Enlightenment theories. He references David Hume's skepticism about the reliability of reason as a means to understand the natural world, highlighting the ongoing debate about the foundations of scientific reasoning.
"and it does seem to be because of a family of methods right so doesn't the case of the success of the enlightenment lend credence to the idea that um certain methods are to be privileged and are more ..."
Introducing the Popper-Miller Theorem
Matjaž Leonardis introduces the Popper-Miller Theorem, co-authored with David Deutsch, which challenges the notion of probabilistic support in scientific theories. He explains the theorem's implications for understanding how evidence interacts with theories and the complexities of inductive logic.
"how causality works with with most of these things um but but to this idea that it was due to to um a change in method i mean like well that's like a lot of people at the time had that idea but a lot ..."
Logical Content and Scientific Theories
Leonardis concludes by connecting the Popper-Miller Theorem to broader themes in scientific methodology, particularly the logical content of theories. He discusses the implications of measuring the content of theories and how this relates to the understanding of scientific progress and inquiry.
"basically uh um what what their what their theorem aimed to show was that was that this that this probabilistic support that evidence sort of confers on theories i you know a piece of evidence comes i..."
Probabilistic Support Explained
In this segment, Leonardis elaborates on the Popper-Miller Theorem, explaining how it argues against the idea that evidence can confer inductive support on theories. He discusses the nuances of how evidence affects the probability of theories and the philosophical implications of this argument.
"yeah that was a very interesting answer uh speaking of induction let's get into the paper you co-wrote with david that's coming out uh soon um so do you want to describe it oh sure so we um we wrote a..."
Popper's Logical Content
Leonardis explains Karl Popper's ideas on the logical content of theories, emphasizing that some theories convey more information than others. He discusses the relationship between probability measures and content measures, and how this perspective challenges probabilistic approaches to knowledge.
"okay did this serum for the broader theme and popper's work um well it sort of did right so so the basic idea that that popper had um um that i think kind of sort of came out this theorem i think came..."
Challenges to Bayesian Reasoning
Leonardis addresses the challenges posed by the Popper-Miller Theorem to Bayesian reasoning in scientific inquiry. He discusses the theorem's relevance to artificial general intelligence (AGI) and the broader implications for scientific methodology, emphasizing the need for a deeper understanding of how evidence and theories interact.
"basically uh um what what their what their theorem aimed to show was that was that this that this probabilistic support that evidence sort of confers on theories i you know a piece of evidence comes i..."
The Conjunction Fallacy Explained
In this segment, Leonardis introduces the conjunction fallacy, referencing Daniel Kahneman's work. He illustrates how people's beliefs often contradict probability calculus, using the example of a woman named Linda to demonstrate how people prefer explanatory theories over mere likelihood.
"more likely than that theory i can say this theory says less than this theory um that was kind of the idea of it and um and and basically um what the the reason therefore he i think kind of became ske..."
Logical Content of Theories
In this concluding segment, Leonardis reflects on Popper's interest in the logical content of scientific theories. He discusses the idea of measuring the content of theories and the constraints that govern scientific reasoning, highlighting the ongoing quest to understand the nature of scientific inquiry.
"interesting challenge to this idea of of um you know sort of kind of trying to use bayesian reasoning to to either build an agi or or for various other purposes and we thought it would be sort of a ve..."
Believability vs. Probability
Leonardis discusses the distinction between believability and probability, particularly in the context of explanatory theories. He argues that people tend to favor theories that provide deeper explanations, even if they are less likely, and explores the implications of this preference for scientific inquiry.
"that so um there is this famous experiment i think it was popularized by uh daniel kahneman in his book thinking fast and slow um which was i think the sort of case of linda so um the you know in this..."
Explanatory Theories vs. Likely Theories
In this segment, Leonardis explores the preference for explanatory theories over merely likely theories. He references the conjunction fallacy and discusses how people often seek informative and explanatory frameworks, rather than accepting tautological theories that lack depth. This preference is tied to the psychological need for regularity and understanding.
"kind of less likely theories um and if you want kind of an example of the fact that that people do seem to think about that way right there is something known as the conjunction fallacy um that would ..."
The Role of Explanatory Theories
Leonardis elaborates on the importance of explanatory theories in scientific progress. He argues that these theories not only provide insights but also drive the quest for knowledge, allowing for the discovery of truths that may not be evident through mere experience.
"probability okay and can you explain why explanatory theories uh should be preferred well i'm i'm not saying that they should be i'm you know um i i do i do like explanatory theories i find them inter..."
Exploring the Need for Regularity
In this segment, Leonardis reflects on the psychological need for regularity in human understanding. He discusses how this need influences the development of universal theories and the pursuit of knowledge, while also questioning the existence and implications of this need.
"on the other hand i think that's another thing that is great about explanatory theories is that is that they allow and i think that this was another point that you would make is that is that they sort..."
The Role of Explanatory Theories
Leonardis argues for the significance of explanatory theories in scientific progress. He explains how these theories facilitate the discovery of truths and the accumulation of knowledge, contrasting them with mere experiential learning. He emphasizes that engaging with universal explanatory theories can lead to greater understanding and advancement.
"probability okay and can you explain why explanatory theories uh should be preferred well i'm i'm not saying that they should be i'm you know um i i do i do like explanatory theories i find them inter..."
Advice for Aspiring Polymaths
Matjaž Leonardis shares his insights for young individuals aspiring to be polymaths. He cautions against rigid learning structures and emphasizes the importance of natural curiosity and broad interests. Leonardis suggests that learning should be an organic process rather than a systematic one, encouraging exploration across disciplines.
"on the other hand i think that's another thing that is great about explanatory theories is that is that they allow and i think that this was another point that you would make is that is that they sort..."
Advice for Aspiring Polymaths
Leonardis shares his insights for young individuals aspiring to be polymaths. He emphasizes the importance of pursuing diverse interests and learning organically, rather than adhering to rigid educational structures that may hinder creativity and exploration.
"okay let me ask about being polymathic so this paper clearly pulls from a lot of disciplines and i think a lot of the work you do generally does um what advice do you have to a young person who's tryi..."
The Nature of Learning
In this concluding segment, Leonardis reflects on the nature of learning and the misconceptions surrounding it. He challenges the notion that one must follow a strict progression of study and advocates for a more fluid approach to acquiring knowledge. Leonardis encourages embracing diverse interests and experiences as a pathway to becoming a well-rounded thinker.
"person who's trying to be a polymath um well uh first of all the first piece of advice is is that is that i would give is that no you should never take advice from me uh the second piece of uh the sec..."
Learning Beyond Formal Structures
In this concluding segment, Leonardis critiques the conventional approach to learning, arguing against the necessity of systematic study of fundamentals. He encourages a more fluid and intuitive approach to knowledge acquisition, fostering a genuine curiosity and broad interest.
"you think okay first then you just study the fundamentals then the intermediate level then the advanced levels and all of these levels are fiction the there is sort of not none of that there and all o..."
The Polymath's Journey
In this segment, Leonardis reflects on the nature of being a polymath, suggesting that it is less about acquiring knowledge and more about unlearning restrictive frameworks. He encourages young people to explore their interests without the pressure of achieving specific outcomes, highlighting the liberating aspect of curiosity-driven learning.
"because um like you know as i said like every single one every single thing you see in a textbook wasn't written to be put in a textbook wasn't developed so that somebody could learn it it was it was ..."
Connecting with Problem Solvers
In this segment, Leonardis emphasizes the value of connecting with groups of people who are actively solving problems. He highlights the challenge of identifying relevant problems and the importance of collaboration in contributing to meaningful solutions.
"substantial uh uh but history often history of things often gets around that because um like you know as i said like every single one every single thing you see in a textbook wasn't written to be put ..."
The Challenge of Identifying Problems
Leonardis reflects on the difficulty of creating a comprehensive list of unsolved problems in any field. He explains that problems are often subjective and context-dependent, making it challenging for individuals to identify what issues they can contribute to effectively.
"when it comes to that i think my impression at least is that the most important thing is to connect um with other people or groups of people that are doing something because there you will um you know..."
Connecting with Problem Solvers
Leonardis emphasizes the importance of connecting with others who are actively solving problems. He discusses the challenges young people face in identifying the right problems to engage with and the necessity of collaboration. He suggests that finding a community can provide support and direction in their learning journey.
"when it comes to that i think my impression at least is that the most important thing is to connect um with other people or groups of people that are doing something because there you will um you know..."
The Importance of Mentorship
Leonardis discusses the significance of mentorship for young people seeking to engage with the right problems. He reassures that the world is not hostile to young learners and that there is goodwill towards those who seek to connect and contribute, emphasizing the need for awareness of available opportunities.
"um and those people might not actually know in advance that that's what they would want and for that reason it's actually quite difficult to sort of put um you know that seems to be a kind that's that..."
Overcoming Barriers to Connection
In this concluding segment, Leonardis addresses the perceived barriers young people face in connecting with mentors and problem solvers. He reassures that the world is not hostile to such connections and that there is goodwill towards young learners. He encourages awareness of the opportunities available for engagement and collaboration.
"um and those people might not actually know in advance that that's what they would want and for that reason it's actually quite difficult to sort of put um you know that seems to be a kind that's that..."