All Segments
The Brutal Truth About Biotech: Why $2B Per Drug Is Killing Innovation
10 segments available
Two venture capitalists dissect why biotech burns billions while China runs trials in weeks, and why the next Genentech won't look anything like the last one. Elliot Hershberg reveals the "three horsemen" strangling drug development as costs explode to $2.5 billion per approval, while Lada Nuzhna exposes how investigator-initiated trials in Shanghai are rewriting the competitive playbook faster than American founders can file INDs. When the infrastructure that built monoclonal antibodies becomes the commodity threatening to hollow out an entire industry, the only path forward demands inventing medicines that are literally impossible to make without tools that don't exist yet, and they're betting everything on which approach survives. Timestamps: 00:00 - The State of Biotech: Record Lows and Structural Challenges 03:00 - The Biggest Disconnect: Technology Progress vs Market Reality 06:00 - Eroom's Law: Why Drugs Cost $2 Billion and Take Longer Than Ever 10:36 - How the Biotech Industry Actually Works: From Dye Manufacturers to Drug Discovery 13:33 - China's Speed and Cost Advantage: The Geographic Arbitrage Problem 17:00 - "We Have to Invent Stuff": America's Path to Competing with China 22:24 - AI in Drug Development: Can It Make a $2.5B Drug Cost $500M? 33:00 - GLP-1s: The Drug That Gave Biotech Its Mojo Back 38:14 - What Is Aging? We'll Treat It Before We Understand It 58:00 - Where Are The Next Iconic Biotechs? Rebundling the Stack Follow Jorge on X: https://x.com/JorgeCondeBio Follow Lada on X: https://x.com/ladanuzhna Follow Elliot on X: https://x.com/ElliotHershberg Follow Erik on X: https://x.com/eriktorenberg Stay Updated: If you enjoyed this episode, be sure to like, subscribe, and share with your friends! Find a16z on X: https://x.com/a16z Find a16z on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/a16z Listen to the a16z Podcast on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/5bC65RDvs3oxnLyqqvkUYX Listen to the a16z Podcast on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/a16z-podcast/id842818711 Follow our host: https://x.com/eriktorenberg Please note that the content here is for informational purposes only; should NOT be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice or be used to evaluate any investment or security; and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any a16z fund. a16z and its affiliates may maintain investments in the companies discussed. For more details please see a16z.com/disclosures.
Segments Timeline
The State of Biotech: Record Lows and Structural Challenges
"Since the birth of this industry, we only had increasing regulation over time. I think there was like only one time in history of biotech where we made it easier to develop an appropriate drug. >> So ..."
The Biggest Disconnect: Technology Progress vs Market Reality
"Amgen IPOs um their investors making first huge exits more so than in tech back then and uh we had human genome projects that sort of promised that all the biotech will become precision medicine and w..."
Eroom's Law: Why Drugs Cost $2 Billion and Take Longer Than Ever
"wrote a great post where are all the trillion dollar biotechs. Uh what's your diagnosis of the situation? what what is it about the fundamentals of the industry that make it uh so challenging economic..."
How the Biotech Industry Actually Works: From Dye Manufacturers to Drug Discovery
"just assume that these things are expensive and take a lot of time. >> So that argument would be that the the challenge is not uh technological that in some level the challenge might not even be the r..."
China's Speed and Cost Advantage: The Geographic Arbitrage Problem
"first place. And the origin of drug discovery startups and um and biotechs is that we are the lunatics that take on that IR negative um business and say that we're in the business of making these new ..."
"We Have to Invent Stuff": America's Path to Competing with China
"they print medicine that would already otherwise exist in the US. I think it's somewhat outdated view. They are now leading in in bivocartis. They are leading in gene editing and gene therapy and part..."
AI in Drug Development: Can It Make a $2.5B Drug Cost $500M?
"I do think that secrecy really matters. I think many people are starting to ask themselves whether they want to present at conferences. So whether they want to publish papers, whether they want to fil..."
GLP-1s: The Drug That Gave Biotech Its Mojo Back
"specific mRNA cancer vaccine designed for that patient, right? And so in that case, it's hard to even disentangle like it it totally breaks our conception of what the target is, what the drug is. The ..."
What Is Aging? We'll Treat It Before We Understand It
"rare diseases. So sort of making up for smaller population sizes with larger price tags. And I think in terms of the general pressure on pricing plus the sort of uh carrot of the success of GLP1, ther..."
Where Are The Next Iconic Biotechs? Rebundling the Stack
"some type of new modality. >> One of the one of those options, right? Yes. >> Okay. Yeah. >> I mean, >> you re combinant DNA gifted us the first offtheshelf insulin. Um mRNA vaccines gifted us vaccine..."