"so the existence of sex is the most pessimistic thing there is I find that ironic to miss sexiest right so it could be Y combinator is a bit stale but stale in the good sense like Harvard is stale rig..."

"so the existence of sex is the most pessimistic thing there is I find that ironic to miss sexiest right so it could be Y combinator is a bit stale but stale in the good sense like Harvard is stale rig..."

"get talent in just a second but I've got a few questions for you first absolutely so in terms of novelty and wonder do you think traveling to the Past would be a fundamentally different experience to ..."

"a lot of the IDW people have very clear Peaks which now lie in the past but they made Extreme bets on very particular ideas hmm and maybe different people will disagree about those ideas but I think a..."

"yeah you can put this in the podcast if you want to you so I like the pre-podcast talk often better than the podcast okay well yeah we can just start rolling okay today it is my great pleasure to once..."

"historians lose right so I'm curious how is how has traveling a law just changed your perspective when you read a work of history in what ways are you skeptical of it that you weren't before like what..."

"a huge mystery right Republicans act wacky Or democrats sort more uh the issues realign in particular ways so uh I think that's why Conquest law locally is mostly holding oh interesting so you don't t..."

"a few questions for you first absolutely so in terms of novelty and wonder do you think traveling to the Past would be a fundamentally different experience to traveling to different countries today or..."

"um okay how much of talent or the lack thereof is a moral judgment for you so just to get some context when I think that somebody is not that intelligent for me that doesn't seem like a moral judgment..."

"you'll realize how little you can learn about the current places just by reading about them oh interesting okay so it's like travel versus history and the historians lose right so I'm curious how is h..."

"history okay interesting um so you've asked this question to many of your guests and I don't think any of them have had a good answer so let me just ask you what do you think is the explanation behind..."

"but you look at your Bill Gates's your mark zuckerbergs without pretending to know what their childhoods were like it sure sounds like they were upper middle class kids treated very well at least from..."

"a huge mystery right Republicans act wacky Or democrats sort more uh the issues realign in particular ways so uh I think that's why Conquest law locally is mostly holding oh interesting so you don't t..."

"it's not about really the people but to what extent is when you do find a cluster of talent in a place to what extent does can that be explained by sort of like a cyclical view of what's happening in ..."

"what is left at consider left at the time is the thing that ended up winning or at least looking back on it that's how we categorize things like um I something insightful I heard from Burn Hobart is t..."

"not taking prosperity for granted it will have for quite a while like Indy is still pretty poor what do you think makes certain places the actual place where the clusters of talent uh congregate and p..."

"that somebody is not that intelligent for me that doesn't seem like a moral judgment that just seems like a lot of the lottery when I say that somebody's not hard working for me that seems like more o..."

"uh London it's much harder but it seems to me London is a sink for somewhat established Talent which is fine right uh but in that regard much inferior to New York okay I want to play a game of overrat..."

"one doesn't is there a difference in how you perceive humility or the lack thereof oh sure the 50 year old you want to see what have they done and you're much more likely to think the 50 year old shou..."

"such a common Trope I would love to see the data but I'm not convinced that it's more common than with other people so famous people especially those who have biographies on average they're from earli..."

"like an important very good question it seems to me maybe one could investigate it but I've never seen an actual result is there something you've learned about Talent spotting through writing the book..."

"but no one's ever said that to me you know this the famous Mark Zuckerberg story where he went into the VC meeting at Sequoia wearing his pajamas and he told Sequoia not to give him money I think he w..."

"move to London to New York to somewhere so I find that a bit depressing it's not about really the people but to what extent is when you do find a cluster of talent in a place to what extent does can t..."

"dressed when they didn't need to so they've got a Chris clean shirt they've got a nice wash 20. they're too conformist hmm again some jobs Conformity is great but I get a little suspicious at least fo..."

"like you are you know maybe they're not being a conformist right or just some kind of nut and then you're interested again yeah an overall sense that you get from the person that they're really conten..."

"are humble but I just get a wee bit like what's up with you you're not really humble are you oh so like maybe the humility is a way of like avoiding confrontation like you don't have the confidence to..."

"you perceive humility or the lack thereof oh sure the 50 year old you want to see what have they done and you're much more likely to think the 50 year old should feign humility than the 15 year old be..."

"need this uh that's like my actual reaction but again at the intellectual level it does seem to work for some people or at least not screw them up too much you don't drink caffeine correct zero why I ..."

"could be true right so there's definitely positive correlations between that stuff and artistic creativity cause a little harder to say but correlates so uh you you certainly should take the person se..."

"year old said to me in three years I'm going to invent her perpetual motion machine right I would think like no you're just crazy but no one's ever said that to me you know this the famous Mark Zucker..."

"School in Oakton it's right nearby I went in I wasn't paid I disfigure I'll do this it seems to me a lot of high schools don't even try and they could get a bunch of people to come in for free and jus..."

"ends so it's really hard to be too arrogant but once you say this dislike the second order effect you start thinking well are they just being arrogant as an act and then in that in the accents yes the..."

"Wi-Fi access and then just leave them alone or do you think that they need some sort of structure I think they need some structure but you have to let them rebel against it and do their own thing also..."

"Francisco right now it seems like the conformist thing is not to wear a suit to an interview if you're like trying to be a software engineer yeah there might be situations where it's so weird so over ..."

"need this uh that's like my actual reaction but again at the intellectual level it does seem to work for some people or at least not screw them up too much you don't drink caffeine correct zero why I ..."

"well I I guess more specifically if you don't need um it seems that Brian's book relies on the argument that you need a costly signal to show that you have talent or you know you have intelligence and..."

"getting in college is there like something you can point to that says oh clearly they're getting some context otherwise they wouldn't be able to do this well I think if you meet enough people who didn..."

"could be true right so there's definitely positive correlations between that stuff and artistic creativity cause a little harder to say but correlates so uh you you certainly should take the person se..."

"School in Oakton it's right nearby I went in I wasn't paid I disfigure I'll do this it seems to me a lot of high schools don't even try and they could get a bunch of people to come in for free and jus..."

"is true but in principle they're demonstrable uh then you would be much more skeptical about the context being the thing that mattered but as it stands now that's the residual and it's probably what m..."

"uh his level of enthusiasm ability to speak with respect to detail and just kind of bursting with everything was immediately evident as it still is Brian has changed less than almost anyone else I kno..."

"rebel against it and do their own thing also zero structure strikes me as great for a few of them but even for the super talented ones not perfect they need exposure to things and they need some teach..."

"for us uh that it's not a problem so it does the endorsement does get credentialized mostly that's a good thing right like you help the people you pick and then you see what happens next and you you k..."

"well I I guess more specifically if you don't need um it seems that Brian's book relies on the argument that you need a costly signal to show that you have talent or you know you have intelligence and..."

"getting in college is there like something you can point to that says oh clearly they're getting some context otherwise they wouldn't be able to do this well I think if you meet enough people who didn..."

"particular that they have if it's not the particular thing that they're working on some intangible kind of intuition where they feel the right thing in the people they meet and we try to teach people ..."

"genomics that we'll see somehow I don't think that will change this so you don't think like getting apologetic or a score of I don't know uh drive that's going to be a thing that happens maybe future ..."

"is true but in principle they're demonstrable uh then you would be much more skeptical about the context being the thing that mattered but as it stands now that's the residual and it's probably what m..."

"uh his level of enthusiasm ability to speak with respect to detail and just kind of bursting with everything was immediately evident as it still is Brian has changed less than almost anyone else I kno..."

"but you can't say that's true I priori inequality of income might go up right and then but will the slack in the system go away for people who are not top performers like as you can tell now if we're ..."

"for us uh that it's not a problem so it does the endorsement does get credentialized mostly that's a good thing right like you help the people you pick and then you see what happens next and you you k..."

"measuring their labor power but still what they're doing is working and they're making more from it if uh Talent is partly heritable then the better you get at spotting Talent over time will the socia..."

"so maybe initially they can help the people who are around them but if you like find somebody in Brazil they help people around them but once they're found they're going to go to those clusters you ta..."

"particular that they have if it's not the particular thing that they're working on some intangible kind of intuition where they feel the right thing in the people they meet and we try to teach people ..."

"right you see what I'm saying well you might discourage the people you turn away but if they're really going to do something they should take that as a challenge and many do like oh I was rejected by ..."

"genomics that we'll see somehow I don't think that will change this so you don't think like getting apologetic or a score of I don't know uh drive that's going to be a thing that happens maybe future ..."

"but you can't say that's true I priori inequality of income might go up right and then but will the slack in the system go away for people who are not top performers like as you can tell now if we're ..."

"sort of LeBron James's basketball history past a certain point it just seems everyone wanted him you know for a bunch of decades now I think deliberately with a lot of candidates you shouldn't encoura..."

"like climate change or pandemics very well so where should It Go rationality Community gets some of it that's related to EAS I'm sure you know just like the tech startup Community gets some of it that..."

"measuring their labor power but still what they're doing is working and they're making more from it if uh Talent is partly heritable then the better you get at spotting Talent over time will the socia..."

"religions we needed were just flat out religions but in the meantime EA will do are there times when somebody asked you or ask you for a grand and you view that as a negative signal so let's say they'..."

"so maybe initially they can help the people who are around them but if you like find somebody in Brazil they help people around them but once they're found they're going to go to those clusters you ta..."

"if you uh I I remember uh that the president of the University of Chicago so many years back said that if he rejected the entire class of freshmen that are coming in and accepted the 1500 people that ..."

"right you see what I'm saying well you might discourage the people you turn away but if they're really going to do something they should take that as a challenge and many do like oh I was rejected by ..."

"but a lot of these rejected people and projects I don't think they're so like spilling tears over it like you get an application someone's in Akron Ohio and they want to start a non-profit dog shelter..."

"sort of LeBron James's basketball history past a certain point it just seems everyone wanted him you know for a bunch of decades now I think deliberately with a lot of candidates you shouldn't encoura..."

"for a lot of them the money per se doesn't matter right then so what is the function of returns look bad for that if you like 10x the money or you 0.1x the money for some of these things do you think ..."

"like climate change or pandemics very well so where should It Go rationality Community gets some of it that's related to EAS I'm sure you know just like the tech startup Community gets some of it that..."

"by quite a bit so women will develop defense mechanisms that men maybe don't have as much one thing I heard from somebody I was brainstorming these questions with she suggested that maybe it's because..."

"yeah I think it's somewhat like a religion to me that's a plus we need more religions I wish more of the religions we needed were just flat out religions but in the meantime EA will do are there times..."

"if you uh I I remember uh that the president of the University of Chicago so many years back said that if he rejected the entire class of freshmen that are coming in and accepted the 1500 people that ..."

"writing correlates with um just general competence so it I do but especially the areas that I'm finding it's strongly true okay whether it's true for everything is harder to say Can stamina be increas..."

"well I don't think that's totally false the people who have superhuman stamina are born that way but there's plenty of Origins I mean take physical stamina you don't think people can train more and ru..."

"but a lot of these rejected people and projects I don't think they're so like spilling tears over it like you get an application someone's in Akron Ohio and they want to start a non-profit dog shelter..."

"for a lot of them the money per se doesn't matter right then so what is the function of returns look bad for that if you like 10x the money or you 0.1x the money for some of these things do you think ..."

"which is another kind of simple proof that you can boost your mental stamina now um after reading the book I was inclined to think that intelligence matters more than I previously thought not less so ..."

"by quite a bit so women will develop defense mechanisms that men maybe don't have as much one thing I heard from somebody I was brainstorming these questions with she suggested that maybe it's because..."

"my view and kind of by definition I agree with that view but yeah there's a way of reading it where intelligence really matters a lot but for a relatively small number of jobs right so maybe you just ..."

"um so you cite the data of that Sweden collects from everybody that enters the military there and then you know the CEOs apparently are not especially smart but one thing I find interesting from that ..."

"writing correlates with um just general competence so it I do but especially the areas that I'm finding it's strongly true okay whether it's true for everything is harder to say Can stamina be increas..."

"well I don't think that's totally false the people who have superhuman stamina are born that way but there's plenty of Origins I mean take physical stamina you don't think people can train more and ru..."

"it's just mutational load or uh like the actual Act of I think you actually have to be really smart to figure out like how to lead a team how to improve yourself how how to practice how to outsmart th..."

"and Magnus Carlson would say the same with chess hmm um so being in reasonable physical shape is important for your mental stamina which is another kind of simple proof that you can boost your mental ..."

"interesting and he's not that tall you can't say oh he succeeded because he's seven foot two he was maybe top six foot four and they called him the round mound of rebound now how did he do that he was..."

"there more than who does guys I mean I feel what the book presents is in fact my view and kind of by definition I agree with that view but yeah there's a way of reading it where intelligence really ma..."

"well with restaurants you have selection pressure where you're only going to ones that have cleared certain hurdles right so this is true for talent only for talents who are established so if you see ..."

"multiplicative model where the IQ returns only cash out for people good at all these other things and for a lot of geniuses they just can't get out of bed in the morning and your stock and you should ..."

"generalization is that it tends to come out of larger units so small groups and tribes and linguistic groups they get absorbed those people don't stop being creative and other venues but there are few..."

"from would be Canada all other things equal again I'd want this to be measured uh the people who come from countries that are hard to come from India actually the numbers are fairly high but the roots..."

"I'm with you all the way do you think it's just mutational load or uh like the actual Act of I think you actually have to be really smart to figure out like how to lead a team how to improve yourself ..."

"think will change in Talent spotting as Society becomes older Society depends what you mean by Society uh I think the U.S unless it totally screws up on immigration will always have like a very seriou..."

"than Charles Barkley huh that's really interesting and he's not that tall you can't say oh he succeeded because he's seven foot two he was maybe top six foot four and they called him the round mound o..."

"to be the case to what extent do you need uh a sort of great man ethos and in your culture in order to empower the top talent that if you have too much political and moral egalitarianism you're not go..."

"well with restaurants you have selection pressure where you're only going to ones that have cleared certain hurdles right so this is true for talent only for talents who are established so if you see ..."

"Europe is too few dimensions of status competition not enough room for the proverbial like Village Idiot interesting you say in the book The Question sent into grade over time if you don't replace the..."

"so what happens with cultural diversity I think the most reliable generation generalization is that it tends to come out of larger units so small groups and tribes and linguistic groups they get absor..."

"comedy routine you got to write a new one each year that's right but when when your show's on the air you do give it your best jokes right um is somebody who's applying to Merchant Ventures if they've..."

"uh maybe an easy country to come here from would be Canada all other things equal again I'd want this to be measured uh the people who come from countries that are hard to come from India actually the..."

"few places but not here what do you think will change in Talent spotting as Society becomes older Society depends what you mean by Society uh I think the U.S unless it totally screws up on immigration..."

"finding Talent Timeless so if you're looking for let's say General in the French Revolution how much of these does the advice change or are the are the basic principles the same over time well one of ..."

"again the issue is that the details that stick on my mind for reading the biography are the ones that make him seem autistic right yes and there's a tendency in biographies to storify things and that'..."

"wouldn't surprise me if that turned out to be the case to what extent do you need uh a sort of great man ethos and in your culture in order to empower the top talent that if you have too much politica..."

"what do you mean oh maybe they ran a car dealership yeah and earned three million dollars in 1966 yeah which is a pretty good life back then right but it's not like what they have ended up being um um..."

"Europe is too few dimensions of status competition not enough room for the proverbial like Village Idiot interesting you say in the book The Question sent into grade over time if you don't replace the..."

"comedy routine you got to write a new one each year that's right but when when your show's on the air you do give it your best jokes right um is somebody who's applying to Merchant Ventures if they've..."

"things not everything is that not true of other fields like if you're looking for a public intellectual right you're partially hoping for the outcome that they become remembered or they become their i..."

"genuine or people are too self-conscious or too stilted or do something mm-hmm is there something you can do about that or is that just baked in the cake I don't know if you do your best to try to act..."

"the particular way in which I ended up doing well yet was still at a younger age overconfident interesting I want to back test uh some of your methods of finding Talent on certain people um okay so uh..."

"what do you mean oh maybe they ran a car dealership yeah and earned three million dollars in 1966 yeah which is a pretty good life back then right but it's not like what they have ended up being um um..."

"thing and there's something quite discreet about a novel that until a person has done it it's hard to tell how good they are or say a great non-fiction book well like you know Taylor Pinker or whoever..."

"things not everything is that not true of other fields like if you're looking for a public intellectual right you're partially hoping for the outcome that they become remembered or they become their i..."

"suggesting maybe I could learn but right now I'm totally at Sea with that one okay Joseph Conrad like was I going to get that Herman Melville I don't think so interesting uh okay let's back test with ..."

"thing and there's something quite discreet about a novel that until a person has done it it's hard to tell how good they are or say a great non-fiction book well like you know Taylor Pinker or whoever..."

"very well at emerge Adventures sure yeah I agree let's talk about uh effective altruism I don't like terrorism you have expressed skepticism to the idea that you can use long-termism to say that exist..."

"but we shouldn't invest in good things now I do favor like an asteroid Protection Program by the way to the extent there was a trade-off in that hypothetical would you uh would you like put the same w..."

"suggesting maybe I could learn but right now I'm totally at Sea with that one okay Joseph Conrad like was I going to get that Herman Melville I don't think so interesting uh okay let's back test with ..."

"very well at emerge Adventures sure yeah I agree let's talk about uh effective altruism I don't like terrorism you have expressed skepticism to the idea that you can use long-termism to say that exist..."

"right I I'm curious generally why is the possibility of humanity serving for a very long time uh not something that uh is like a strong part of your world view given that you're strong long-termist I ..."

"the sloppiest people you've got to worry about and they are not sitting in on your class on AGI and Alignment yes um although it is surprising to the extent that like the the companies in the US that ..."

"population feudal governance lots of violence rape whatever and there's no reason to think like oh just thought you like read a copy of the constitution in 400 years we're back on track that's crazy w..."

"um so I'm not the pessimist sexiest right let's take an argument that economic growth is very important yeah does that imply anything in particular about what somebody should do with their life or is ..."

"stuff by calling yourself worried about existential risk there's plenty of people in the U.S foreign policy establishment who think about all this stuff until recently most of them had never heard of ..."

"um so I'm not the pessimist sexiest right let's take an argument that economic growth is very important yeah does that imply anything in particular about what somebody should do with their life or is ..."

"don't invade Russia or I don't know beware Talent you know tally Rand or whatever it just seems to miss the point if you were to if like a young person were to read a bunch of biographies not necessar..."

"I've been blogging almost 20 years and there's this I hope there's some lesson in the constancy of that for people um I was struck while reading your book uh that some of the advice you offer for how ..."

"don't invade Russia or I don't know beware Talent you know tally Rand or whatever it just seems to miss the point if you were to if like a young person were to read a bunch of biographies not necessar..."

"important topics should you just try to increase the variance so you can get the important things right I think it's again context specific you want to understand where a person is understand they wer..."

"I've been blogging almost 20 years and there's this I hope there's some lesson in the constancy of that for people um I was struck while reading your book uh that some of the advice you offer for how ..."

"they're dealing with the flow coming their way so I I prefer to work with people's strengths and boost the strengths rather than like have a list set out of how to reform them I think it's a way more ..."

"more of it or if you're hitting them over the head like why don't you you know wake up at seven a.m in the morning maybe they should it's like come on you have something better to do than that like if..."

"writing more books interesting though I will write more books so like it's a it's like your late career that you think the most important thing is institution building and talent spotting yes at this ..."

"spotting yes at this point and I've written like 16 17 books so it's not like I haven't had my say sure but one interesting thing about top performers in many fields is that they have intricate philos..."

"more broadly hmm like you need a unique way of looking at the world is is that a correlate in the sense that uh it like jolts you out of uh complacency or protect you from other people's idiocy uh you..."

"more broadly hmm like you need a unique way of looking at the world is is that a correlate in the sense that uh it like jolts you out of uh complacency or protect you from other people's idiocy uh you..."

"as well right where we've seen this with many of your even former podcast guests people like Jordan Peterson uh Christopher hitch and Sam Harris like how do how do public intellectuals make themselves..."

"and I work quite hard not to do that a lot of the IDW people right have very clear Peaks which now lie in the past yes and I suspect we'll have fairly rapid declines well I don't I don't want that to ..."

"that to happen to me I want to be in the thick of things just for selfish reasons what do you think what's the explanation for why they're why they Peak so early oh I don't know if early is the word l..."

"I've thought about this quite a bit I think the selection filters are very strong they're very pro-conformity people care a lot what their peers think of them you're selecting for conformists to begin..."

"I can get that here and you're free how malleable is uh risk reverse uh aversion I think a lot of the students we produce have done unusual things certainly relative to other programs it could be bett..."

"easy right so let's say you're like F this tenure I'm gonna get up and take a risk like what do you do you say demand curve slope upwards it's just not that easy is there something that would be analo..."

"I can get that here and you're free how malleable is uh risk reverse uh aversion I think a lot of the students we produce have done unusual things certainly relative to other programs it could be bett..."

"know yeah um whereas Richard cobbton not like a deep economic thinker but for free trade against the Corn Laws he and John bright they made that happen I would say they were correct but it's not that ..."

"bored too quickly doing that okay I was just about to ask uh is there a reason why you haven't adopted the strategy yourself yeah it's uh I don't like that's the way in which I am risk-averse I don't ..."

"could say sub stack is bigger than blogs it's a bit different but it's broadly a similar thing right what do you see is the differences between a sub stack and a Blog sub stack posts tend to be longer..."

"they've survived right it's good material that's 17th and 18th centuries so why can it survive today when the technology makes it easier and uh more readily preserved just the notion that you write an..."

"fruits I think that's a reason but I don't think it's the most fundamental reason in this sense maybe like Patrick Collison would see it as more important than I do I think exhausting the literal low-..."

"uh what I find interesting is that you're an optimist in the short term given this uncertainty but in the long term given the uncertainty about the future human civilization you're a pessimist is ther..."

"instapundit has done I don't think there's really a sub stack version of that For Better or Worse you don't need one it's done on blogs he's mostly Vin editor a lot of Mr is just me as editor or somet..."

"don't think it's the most fundamental reason in this sense maybe like Patrick Collison would see it as more important than I do I think exhausting the literal low-hanging fruits at the technological l..."

"gonna do it and I hope there's a payoff under all these different scenarios yeah does State capacity just continue to decline is there something I don't know that it's declining okay it feels like it ..."

"explanation I have is so stupid I'm embarrassed to present it what is it it's that you have some people in the system who want to make it better and they make it better like not very sophisticated I d..."

"uh what I find interesting is that you're an optimist in the short term given this uncertainty but in the long term given the uncertainty about the future human civilization you're a pessimist is ther..."

"people spew am I allowed to curse on your podcast yes people spew so much and it's tribalism and then it's like are you short the market and oh well I haven't bought anything lately it's like they be..."

"gonna do it and I hope there's a payoff under all these different scenarios yeah does State capacity just continue to decline is there something I don't know that it's declining okay it feels like it ..."

"seen it yeah like when would that have been but maybe right after you win a war there's some kind of giddiness and desire to build for the future but it can't last that long right um I'm curious why y..."

"classical liberal values will advance that's optimistic I think there's quite a good chance for that is there any difference between you and the fukuyama view of the end of history that the capitalist..."

"what are you supposed to do watch TV okay but is your own podcast a compliment do you think to actual intellectual inquiry or I know I don't I don't assume that it is uh I think of it is a very high c..."

"ask them this question they should just say well that those are my tribalist sympathies you know I'm neurotic and overly stressed what I do is pretty optimistic of course um but but the general fact t..."

"absolutely and for that reason okay um let me ask a little question what do you think podcasts are for like what is happening to anesthetize people oh interesting feel they're learning something to pu..."