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Manifold Markets Founder - Predictions Markets & Revolutionizing Governance
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Stephen Grugett is a cofounder of Manifold Markets, where anyone can create a prediction market. We discuss how prediction markets can change how countries and companies make important decisions. Manifold Markets: https://manifold.markets/ Podcast website + Transcript: https://www.dwarkeshpatel.com/p/stephen-grugett Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/3cDjwBF Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3RkZD12 Follow me on Twitter to be notified of future content: https://twitter.com/dwarkesh_sp TIMESTAMPS: Introduction 0:00:00 Predicting the future 0:02:29 Getting Accurate Information 0:05:16 Potentials 0:06:20 Not using internal prediction markets 0:09:29 Doing the painful thing 0:11:04 Decision Making Process 0:13:31 Grugett’s opinion about insider trading 0:14:52 The Role of prediction markets 0:16:23 Dealing with the Speculators 0:18:17 Criticism of Prediction Markets 0:20:33 The world when people cared about 0:22:24 Grugett’s Profile Background/Experience 0:26:10 User Result Market 0:28:49 The most important mechanism 0:30:17 The 100 manifold dollars 0:32:59 Efficient financial markets 0:40:30 Manifold Markets Job/Career Openings 0:46:28 Objectives of Manifold Markets 0:48:02
Segments Timeline
The Power of Prediction Markets
Stephen Grugett introduces Manifold Markets, a platform for user-created prediction markets. He explains how these markets allow individuals to create questions and aggregate information through betting, ultimately leading to more accurate predictions. Grugett discusses the potential of prediction markets to revolutionize decision-making in various sectors.
"now here's a question i've had for a while why don't companies who have direct incentive to get the best possible information on themselves on the factors affecting their business why aren't they usin..."
The Power of Prediction Markets
Stephen Grugett introduces Manifold Markets, a platform for user-created prediction markets. He discusses how anyone can create questions and allow others to bet on outcomes, emphasizing the potential of prediction markets to aggregate information effectively. Grugett explains the mechanism behind using play money and how it taps into human nature, driving competition and status rather than greed.
"now here's a question i've had for a while why don't companies who have direct incentive to get the best possible information on themselves on the factors affecting their business why aren't they usin..."
Why Aren't Companies Using Prediction Markets?
Grugett addresses a critical question: why don't companies leverage internal prediction markets to gather the best information? He shares insights on how companies like Google and the CIA have experimented with prediction markets but often abandon them due to management's reluctance to receive negative feedback. This segment explores the psychological barriers that prevent organizations from fully utilizing these tools.
"that's uh that's a very interesting point which makes me wonder do you expect that in the future wall street firms will be enticed to get the top people on the leaderboards on manifold markets to come..."
Harnessing Human Nature
Grugett shares insights on why people might engage with prediction markets, emphasizing the role of status and competitiveness over monetary gain. He discusses how users can demonstrate their predictive skills and build a reputation through their betting history, making the platform appealing beyond just financial incentives.
"that's uh that's a very interesting point which makes me wonder do you expect that in the future wall street firms will be enticed to get the top people on the leaderboards on manifold markets to come..."
The Painful Truth of Decision Making
In this segment, Grugett discusses the challenges of decision-making within companies and the reluctance of managers to embrace prediction markets. He highlights how the introduction of these markets can threaten management's authority and create doubt among employees, ultimately impacting the success of corporate missions.
"we talked about whether uh if finance firms would want to hire these predictors but it would be incredibly exciting if we lived in a world where you know news firms would want to hire the people who a..."
The Future of Predictive Talent
The conversation shifts to the potential for Wall Street firms to recruit top predictors from Manifold Markets. Grugett reflects on the overlap between skilled predictors and financial professionals, suggesting that the platform could identify untapped talent in the forecasting community.
"we talked about whether uh if finance firms would want to hire these predictors but it would be incredibly exciting if we lived in a world where you know news firms would want to hire the people who a..."
The Future of Prediction Markets in Corporations
Grugett speculates on the future of prediction markets in corporate environments. He discusses whether, in the long run, companies will adopt internal prediction markets as a standard practice. He reflects on the potential for top companies to embrace these tools, despite the current resistance from management.
"question a lot of people will be interested in and maybe you can't comment but is there any potential um that eventually through crypto or offshoring or some other option that the somebody's ability t..."
Challenges of Internal Prediction Markets
Grugett addresses why companies often abandon internal prediction markets despite their potential benefits. He explains that managers may avoid seeking negative feedback, which can hinder the success of these markets. This reluctance to confront uncomfortable truths is a significant barrier to adopting prediction markets in corporate settings.
"question a lot of people will be interested in and maybe you can't comment but is there any potential um that eventually through crypto or offshoring or some other option that the somebody's ability t..."
The Reluctance to Embrace Prediction Markets
Stephen Grugett discusses the common corporate hesitation to adopt prediction markets, highlighting that managers often avoid them to prevent negative feedback on their decisions. He explains that this reluctance stems from a desire to maintain control over their vision for the company, even if it means missing out on valuable insights.
"um they they will use it people will talk about it for a bit um they will even praise the benefits of prediction markets but ultimately they'll abandon them um and i i think the the main reason for th..."
The Painful Truth of Decision-Making
The discussion continues on the reluctance of managers to implement internal prediction markets. Grugett argues that while some successful startup founders embrace difficult decisions, the prevailing corporate culture often resists transparency and accountability, making it unlikely for prediction markets to become standard practice in the near future.
"that now here's a question i've had for a while why don't companies who have uh you know a direct incentive to get the best possible information on their you know on on themselves on the factors affec..."
The Painful Truth of Decision Making
Grugett reflects on the challenges faced by startup founders and managers in making tough decisions. He questions whether the best companies will eventually adopt internal prediction markets, suggesting that managerial resistance may hinder this progress despite the potential benefits of enhanced decision-making.
"i would say that that's the biggest point it steps on management's toes and they don't like that interesting it's almost the opposite of his point about consultants so he's one of our consultants is t..."
The Painful Decisions of Management
Grugett elaborates on the challenges faced by managers in making difficult decisions. He contrasts the behavior of startup founders, who often take risks for the benefit of their companies, with corporate managers who may shy away from using prediction markets due to fear of undermining their own decisions. This segment emphasizes the cultural and structural issues that hinder the adoption of innovative decision-making tools.
"i would say that that's the biggest point it steps on management's toes and they don't like that interesting it's almost the opposite of his point about consultants so he's one of our consultants is t..."
Usability Challenges in Prediction Markets
In this segment, Grugett addresses the usability concerns surrounding prediction markets. He emphasizes the need for a user-friendly product that allows employees to participate easily, which is crucial for the success of prediction markets in corporate settings.
"so strong that that's not going to happen so i would say there are two parts i would say the first is a rational concern on the part of managers to not use prediction markets because it undercuts thei..."
Usability Challenges in Prediction Markets
In this segment, Grugett addresses the usability concerns surrounding prediction markets. He notes that creating a user-friendly product that allows employees to engage without extensive training is a significant hurdle. Grugett shares Manifold's mission to simplify participation in prediction markets, making them accessible and enjoyable for all users.
"happen so i would say there are two parts i would say the first is a rational concern on the part of managers to not use prediction markets because it undercuts their mission part it's not merely an i..."
The Dilemma of Insider Trading
Grugett shares his perspective on insider trading, particularly in the context of Congress. He argues that while insider trading can enhance market efficiency, it raises ethical concerns about fairness and transparency. This segment explores the complexities of insider information and its implications for corporate governance and public trust.
"yeah yeah that it definitely is um you know i was about to suggest you know maybe it would help zuckerberg to know maybe it's like subsidizing market to find out how many vr devices there will be in t..."
The Dilemma of Insider Trading
Grugett shares his perspective on insider trading, particularly in Congress. He argues that while it may contribute to price efficiency, it raises ethical concerns about fairness and transparency, suggesting that elected officials should be compensated through more open means.
"yeah yeah that it definitely is um you know i was about to suggest you know maybe it would help zuckerberg to know maybe it's like subsidizing market to find out how many vr devices there will be in t..."
Long-Term Predictions and Market Limitations
This segment explores the limitations of prediction markets when it comes to long-term questions, such as the likelihood of catastrophic AI. Grugett discusses the challenges of gathering reliable information for such distant predictions and the inherent human tendency to discount the future.
"using that information i'm curious what is your opinion about um insider trading in congress for example i know this is like a big debate um do you think it serves like a useful price discovery functi..."
Long-Term Predictions and Their Challenges
This segment delves into the limitations of prediction markets when it comes to long-term forecasts, such as the potential for catastrophic AI. Grugett discusses the inherent difficulties in predicting events far in the future and the challenges of gathering reliable information. He emphasizes the need for caution and critical thinking in interpreting long-term predictions.
"using that information i'm curious what is your opinion about um insider trading in congress for example i know this is like a big debate um do you think it serves like a useful price discovery functi..."
The Value of Proxy Questions
Grugett suggests that breaking down long-term speculative questions into more immediate proxy variables can enhance the effectiveness of prediction markets. He provides examples of how to approach complex predictions by focusing on measurable short-term indicators.
"would not normally condone now one place where i'm skeptical of prediction markets is when we're talking about um questions that resolve over a long period of time and which the um which there's no go..."
The Human Nature of Forecasting
Grugett reflects on the human tendency to discount the future and its impact on prediction markets. He discusses how this fundamental aspect of human behavior affects the accuracy and reliability of long-term forecasts. This segment highlights the psychological factors that influence decision-making and forecasting in various domains.
"would not normally condone now one place where i'm skeptical of prediction markets is when we're talking about um questions that resolve over a long period of time and which the um which there's no go..."
Proxy Variables in Prediction Markets
In this segment, Grugett explains the importance of using proxy variables to make long-term predictions more manageable. He suggests breaking down complex questions into smaller, more immediate metrics that can provide insights into future outcomes. This approach allows for more effective use of prediction markets in uncertain scenarios.
"they have nothing to gain uh if catastrophic ai happens so um in these kinds of scenarios what do you think is the role of prediction markets do you have these kinds of concerns uh what are your thoug..."
Critique of Prediction Markets and Financial Instruments
In this discussion, Grugett addresses critiques of prediction markets that suggest they should be replaced by financial instruments. He argues that prediction markets allow for a more focused analysis of specific risks, providing clearer insights than broader financial markets.
"they have nothing to gain uh if catastrophic ai happens so um in these kinds of scenarios what do you think is the role of prediction markets do you have these kinds of concerns uh what are your thoug..."
The Value of Isolated Questions
Grugett discusses the advantages of prediction markets in isolating specific risks and questions. He contrasts this with the broader influences on financial markets, arguing that prediction markets can provide clearer insights into targeted issues. This segment underscores the unique value proposition of prediction markets in decision-making processes.
"elias rudowsky actually do have a bet on um naia apocalypse the bet is about whether there will be like um you know catastrophic ai i think by 2030 is the exact path and so the uh brian pays eleazar n..."
Isolating Risks with Prediction Markets
Grugett elaborates on the advantages of prediction markets in isolating specific risks. He explains how creating markets on targeted proxy variables can yield better insights into complex questions, contrasting this with the multifaceted nature of financial markets.
"be there to to collect your winnings uh the money is worth less in that universe so you you should rationally uh bet against it actually so brian kaplan and elias rudowsky actually do have a bet on um..."
The Critique of Prediction Markets
Stephen Grugett discusses Tyler Cowen's criticism of prediction markets, which suggests that if prediction markets are effective, one should simply bet on financial instruments linked to those predictions. Grugett counters this by explaining the complexity of financial markets and how prediction markets can isolate specific risks, providing clearer insights into particular questions.
"running show interest in running as a politician etc etc and those are much more short-term questions which you can use to you know get a sense of um uh you know of the the longer the longer-term more..."
A Vision for the Future of Prediction Markets
Grugett envisions a future where prediction markets are widely understood and integrated into everyday news media. He believes that this would lead to a more informed public, grounded in facts rather than speculation, ultimately fostering better conversations and understanding of political and social issues.
"you can still get a much better understanding of the thing that you care about by picking multiple well-targeted like proxy variables and creating markets on those rather than like oil prices you know..."
A Vision for the Future of Prediction Markets
Grugett envisions a future where prediction markets are widely understood and integrated into everyday news reporting. He believes that this would lead to a more informed public, grounded in facts rather than speculation, enhancing the quality of political discourse and decision-making.
"you can still get a much better understanding of the thing that you care about by picking multiple well-targeted like proxy variables and creating markets on those rather than like oil prices you know..."
The Role of Prediction Markets in News Consumption
In this segment, Grugett reflects on how prediction markets could transform news consumption by embedding market insights into articles. He acknowledges the challenge of changing how people consume political news, emphasizing that while many seek accurate information, a significant portion may resist it.
"that's the case um you know there's a pessimistic take that people are not consuming politics to understand what's happening um or uh and that they'll almost resent you for presenting them with this k..."
Market Fees and Liquidity Concerns
Grugett addresses concerns about the fee structure in prediction markets, which includes creator fees and liquidity fees. He explains how these fees might deter some traders but are necessary to incentivize market creation and maintain overall market health.
"exciting so one question i have is these trays that people do on your market um you know four percent of the four percent of uh the church what is traded or the traders winnings they go to the market ..."
The Role of Prediction Markets in Understanding Politics
In this segment, Grugett reflects on the potential of prediction markets to help people genuinely understand political events. He acknowledges the challenges of political news consumption but expresses hope that prediction markets can provide valuable insights for those seeking accurate information.
"that's the case um you know there's a pessimistic take that people are not consuming politics to understand what's happening um or uh and that they'll almost resent you for presenting them with this k..."
Market Fees and Liquidity Concerns
Grugett addresses concerns about the fee structure in prediction markets, which includes creator fees and liquidity fees. He explains how these fees might impact market participation and liquidity, while also emphasizing their role in incentivizing market creation and sustainability.
"exciting so one question i have is these trays that people do on your market um you know four percent of the four percent of uh the church what is traded or the traders winnings they go to the market ..."
Background of Manifold Markets Founders
Grugett shares his background in computer science and finance, detailing his previous experiences in options trading and developing financial software. He highlights the technical expertise of the Manifold Markets team and their entrepreneurial spirit.
"the entire market i'm curious how what is your background so you know one of your co-founders is your brother um do you guys have some sort of financial background or mathematical background because y..."
Background of Manifold Markets Founders
Grugett shares his background in computer science and finance, detailing his previous experiences in options trading and developing financial software. He highlights the technical expertise of the Manifold Markets team and their entrepreneurial journey leading to the creation of the platform.
"the entire market i'm curious how what is your background so you know one of your co-founders is your brother um do you guys have some sort of financial background or mathematical background because y..."
The Throne App Experience
Grugett discusses his previous startup, Throne, a subscription-based group chat app for online creators. He explains the app's purpose and the challenges faced in a saturated market, providing insight into the entrepreneurial journey leading to Manifold Markets.
"well too so we're all we're kind of like full stack entrepreneurs i guess you could say uh can you talk a little bit about your previous entrepreneurial experience i think listeners might be intereste..."
The Evolution of Prediction Markets
In this segment, Grugett reflects on the historical context of prediction markets and the challenges in creating a user-friendly platform. He emphasizes the importance of user-resolved markets and how they differ from traditional centralized systems.
"yeah i have a friend who has a popular fantasy football channel and he has um you know he has a very profitable patreon where um basically from the the point of the patreon is it'll give you the link ..."
The Throne App and Lessons Learned
In this segment, Grugett discusses his previous startup, Throne, a subscription group chat app for online creators. He reflects on the challenges faced in a saturated market and the lessons learned about user experience and market dynamics that informed the development of Manifold Markets.
"could say uh can you talk a little bit about your previous entrepreneurial experience i think listeners might be interested sure um so right before this um my brother and co-founder james and i were w..."
Simplicity in Design and Functionality
Grugett discusses the importance of simplicity in the design of prediction markets. He argues that a straightforward user experience is crucial for usability, even if it means sacrificing some edge cases, drawing parallels to successful platforms like Unix and Bitcoin.
"somebody to make a user experience that was so um comfortable as yours or is there something else that uh you know prevented somebody from making a manifold yeah i would say the other uh key piece of ..."
User-Resolved Markets: A Unique Approach
Grugett explains the innovative concept of user-resolved markets at Manifold Markets, allowing users to create and judge their own markets. He discusses the potential for fraud and how this model can enhance scalability and user engagement compared to traditional centralized systems.
"monetizing one way or another and aren't keen on moving monetizing using a new platform um so when it comes to the manifold markets i mean the idea for having um prediction markets even the idea of ha..."
Simplicity in Prediction Markets
Stephen Grugett emphasizes the importance of simplicity in creating user-friendly prediction markets. He discusses how a straightforward mechanism is crucial for usability, prioritizing ease of understanding over handling every edge case perfectly. This approach is vital for the success of platforms like Manifold Markets.
"something super elegant and beautiful um and you know grunt has a really good blog post about this uh bitcoin is worse is better um where he makes the same point about uh you know bitcoin like some of..."
Simplicity in Design and Functionality
Grugett emphasizes the importance of simplicity in the design of prediction markets. He argues that a straightforward user experience is crucial for adoption and usability, drawing parallels to lessons learned from previous entrepreneurial ventures and the broader tech landscape.
"know there is a small amount of fraud but it's actually quite small and manageable if you uh you know allow users to choose which markets to participate in they for the most part are making pretty goo..."
Learning from Past Mistakes
Grugett reflects on lessons learned from previous startups regarding simplicity in business models and user interfaces. He highlights the significance of creating a minimum viable business model that supports creators, showcasing how these principles apply to Manifold Markets.
"something simple and easy to understand more so than handling every possible edge case perfectly you know as long as it's the core experience is extremely simple and easy to use and user friendly um y..."
Challenges of Free Money in Prediction Markets
Grugett addresses concerns about potential abuse in Manifold Markets due to the distribution of free manifold dollars. He explains the measures taken to prevent bot behavior and discusses the implications of giving away free money, comparing it to the early growth strategies of PayPal. This segment explores the economic sustainability of promotional strategies in prediction markets.
"something simple and easy to understand more so than handling every possible edge case perfectly you know as long as it's the core experience is extremely simple and easy to use and user friendly um y..."
Assessing Predictor Skills
In this segment, Grugett discusses how to evaluate the skills of predictors on Manifold Markets. He suggests creating sub-leaderboards for specific market categories, such as geopolitical predictions, to provide a more accurate assessment of user performance. This approach contrasts with a global leaderboard, emphasizing the relevance of context in evaluating predictive success.
"with our policies it kind of reminds me of the paypal story where they had to they were getting like 10 20 bonuses for people for signing off and it basically meant they got exponential growth but the..."
Addressing Abuse in Prediction Markets
In this segment, Grugett addresses concerns about potential abuse in Manifold Markets, such as users creating multiple accounts to exploit the system. He discusses the measures in place to prevent such behavior and the possibility of changing policies as the platform grows.
"know okay so one concern somebody could have about manifold markets is um you know you said you were giving out one thousand manful dollars um somebody could you know just maybe even make a bot that i..."
The Challenge of Free Sign-Up Bonuses
Grugett compares Manifold Markets' free sign-up bonuses to PayPal's early growth strategy, discussing the potential downsides of giving away free money. He explains how user behavior may necessitate stricter policies in the future to maintain the platform's integrity.
"with our policies it kind of reminds me of the paypal story where they had to they were getting like 10 20 bonuses for people for signing off and it basically meant they got exponential growth but the..."
The Role of Play Money in Market Efficiency
Grugett shares insights on the dynamics of play money in prediction markets, discussing how large bets can influence market efficiency. He explains the potential for whales to distort market outcomes and the importance of maintaining a balance in user engagement. This segment delves into the complexities of financial incentives in virtual economies.
"thinkers are you may not care about the straight cat um but a lot of people really do care about the stray cat uh in in other contexts so it's a it's a fine balance to strike another interesting part ..."
Personalized Leaderboards in Prediction Markets
Grugett discusses the evolution of leaderboards in prediction markets, emphasizing the importance of personal relevance over global rankings. He shares how communities and personalized markets can enhance user engagement and provide a better assessment of predictors' skills.
"we'll probably bring that back in some capacity in the future can you can you give an example of that like i guess something like that yeah so once one thing you might care about is like who is the be..."
Using Prediction Markets for Internal Decisions
Grugett reveals how Manifold Markets utilizes its own prediction markets to inform internal decision-making. He shares examples of markets created to gauge fundraising success and employee onboarding, illustrating how the platform's predictions can guide company strategy. This segment highlights the practical applications of prediction markets in organizational governance.
"although i ha i have toyed with some other um interesting like monetary schemes in the past um so one one idea i had is uh introducing demurrage or like um basically negative interest rates on cash ba..."
The Role of Play Money in Market Efficiency
In this segment, Grugett explores the dynamics of play money in prediction markets and how it can distort perceptions of proficiency. He discusses the implications of users buying more play money and the potential effects on market efficiency and price discovery.
"fine balance to strike another interesting part of your platform is so p people can buy more play money um and i guess the concern is even within these uh even within these sub domains where people ar..."
Internal Decision-Making with Prediction Markets
Grugett explains how Manifold Markets utilizes its own prediction markets to inform internal decision-making. He shares examples of markets created to predict fundraising success and employee onboarding, illustrating how these insights guide the company's strategic actions.
"market actually you know substantively informed our our decision about how how to act as a company um was um an early market we created on whether whether we should try to monetize by selling the fake..."
The Evolution of Manifold Markets
In this segment, Grugett outlines the timeline of Manifold Markets' development, from its inception in December 2012 to the decision to pivot away from crypto. He highlights the importance of quickly building a prototype and engaging with the ACX community to establish a user base.
"yeah so this company began long long ago way back in december of 2012 yeah yeah so it's a very very new company um basically decided to ditch crypto after like a maybe like a week a week's worth of yo..."
Innovative Monetary Schemes
Grugett shares his thoughts on innovative monetary schemes, including the concept of demurrage, or negative interest rates on cash balances. He reflects on the challenges of implementing such ideas in practice, given user resistance to losing money.
"easy solution for you um to solve to uh you know to obviate that problem where you will no longer have so much capital um you know to to you know throw about there's a direct analogy to this actually ..."
Using Prediction Markets for Internal Decision Making
Grugett reveals how Manifold Markets utilizes its own prediction markets to inform internal decision-making. He discusses specific markets created to gauge fundraising success and employee onboarding, highlighting the practical application of prediction markets in guiding company strategy.
"um but it's it's interesting to think about sorry i'm not sure i understood if the re-explanation um is unnecessary then we could just cut it out of the final but just for my benefit can you can you c..."
Dynamic Paramutual Systems Explained
Grugett delves into the concept of dynamic paramutual systems, discussing how the team initially approached the idea from first principles. He reflects on the learning process and the eventual discovery of existing literature that informed their implementation.
"i i i know you guys do something called uh dynamic pair mutual uh vetting system you know i looked into the paper i i think i understood like maybe a quarter of it um so is uh what was it like a exper..."
Career Opportunities at Manifold Markets
Grugett shares current job openings at Manifold Markets, including roles for full-stack developers, community managers, and heads of growth. He encourages interested candidates to reach out, emphasizing the company's focus on scaling and community engagement.
"you had to talk me through it over dinner um the next time yeah so you mentioned that you are hiring maybe maybe there are some people in my audience who might be interested um so you want to talk abo..."
Internal Decision-Making with Prediction Markets
Grugett explains how Manifold Markets utilizes its own prediction markets to inform internal decision-making. He shares examples of markets created to gauge fundraising success and employee onboarding, illustrating how these predictions guide the company's strategic actions.
"market actually you know substantively informed our our decision about how how to act as a company um was um an early market we created on whether whether we should try to monetize by selling the fake..."
Innovative Uses of Prediction Markets
In this segment, Grugett discusses the creative ways users have leveraged prediction markets beyond traditional applications. He highlights features like free response markets and community-driven research, showcasing the versatility of prediction markets in various contexts.
"um and any other topics involved with production markets or manifold that we have not discussed yet that you you would like you know you want to touch on i guess they're um one of the things that we'v..."
The Evolution of Manifold Markets
In this segment, Grugett outlines the timeline of Manifold Markets' development, from its inception in December 2012 to the decision to pivot away from crypto. He discusses the rapid prototyping of their prediction market system and the importance of user feedback in shaping the platform.
"yeah so this company began long long ago way back in december of 2012 yeah yeah so it's a very very new company um basically decided to ditch crypto after like a maybe like a week a week's worth of yo..."
Dynamic Paramutual Systems Explained
Grugett delves into the concept of dynamic paramutual systems, explaining how they were developed from first principles. He reflects on the learning process and the integration of existing literature to enhance their implementation, showcasing the innovative approach taken by the Manifold team.
"i i i know you guys do something called uh dynamic pair mutual uh vetting system you know i looked into the paper i i think i understood like maybe a quarter of it um so is uh what was it like a exper..."
Career Opportunities at Manifold Markets
In this segment, Grugett shares the current hiring needs at Manifold Markets, including roles for full-stack developers, community managers, and heads of growth. He emphasizes the importance of experience in scaling startups and invites interested candidates to reach out.
"you had to talk me through it over dinner um the next time yeah so you mentioned that you are hiring maybe maybe there are some people in my audience who might be interested um so you want to talk abo..."
Innovative Uses of Prediction Markets
Grugett discusses the creative ways users have leveraged prediction markets beyond traditional applications. He highlights unique features like free response markets and community-driven research, illustrating the versatility and potential of prediction markets in various contexts.
"um and any other topics involved with production markets or manifold that we have not discussed yet that you you would like you know you want to touch on i guess they're um one of the things that we'v..."