All Segments
Tyler Cowen - The Great Reset
56 segments available
Tyler Cowen is Holbert L. Harris Professor of Economics at George Mason University and also Director of the Mercatus Center. Episode Website: https://www.dwarkeshpatel.com/p/tyler-cowen Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/3AxN5wr Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3KuDICx Follow Tyler Cowen on Twitter: https://twitter.com/tylercowen Follow me on Twitter: https://twitter.com/dwarkesh_sp 0:00 The Great Reset 2:58 Growth and the cyclical view of history 4:00 Time horizons, growth, and sustainability 5:30 Space travel 8:11 WMDs and end of humanity 10:57 Common sense morality 12:20 China and authoritarianism 13:45 Are big businesses complacent? 17:15 Online education vs university 20:45 Aesthetic decline in West Virginia 23:20 Advice for young people 25:18 Mentors 27:15 Identifying talent 29:50 Can adults change? 31:45 Capacity to change men vs women 33:10 Are effeminate societies better? 35:15 Conservatives and progress 36:50 Biggest mistake in history 39:05 Nuke in my lifetime 40:35 Age and learning 42:45 Pessimistic future 43:50 Optimistic future 46:28 Closing
Segments Timeline
The Prophetic Great Reset
Tyler Cowen discusses his earlier predictions in 'Complacent Class' about an impending crisis leading to a 'Great Reset.' He reflects on the current state of American institutions and the unexpected speed of this reset, emphasizing the need for flexibility in response to crises. Cowen also predicts a resurgence of dynamism in biomedical innovation as a result of the pandemic.
"i want to ask you about the great reset so you wrote a book in 2017 called complacent class and in it you predicted a great reset you wrote quote at some point our country will face an immediate crisi..."
The Prophetic Great Reset
Tyler Cowen discusses his 2017 book 'Complacent Class' and how he predicted a great reset in America. He reflects on the unexpected timing of this reset and the failures of American institutions to adapt to crises. Cowen emphasizes the need for flexibility in response to challenges and the potential for a resurgence of dynamism in the biomedical field post-crisis.
"i want to ask you about the great reset so you wrote a book in 2017 called complacent class and in it you predicted a great reset you wrote quote at some point our country will face an immediate crisi..."
Cyclical Views on Economic Growth
In this segment, Cowen contrasts his views in 'Complacent Class' and 'Stubborn Attachments,' discussing the cyclical nature of economic growth. He argues that while short-term growth may fluctuate, long-term growth is possible with liberal institutions. Cowen emphasizes the importance of time horizons in understanding economic sustainability.
"what surprised you the most about how the great reset has occurred well you may recall also in the complacent class i predict that racial issues and segregated segregation will be a central part of it..."
Cyclical Views on Economic Growth
Cowen explores the tension between his two books, 'Complacent Class' and 'Stubborn Attachments.' He argues that while economic growth may be cyclical in the short term, liberal institutions can foster long-term growth. He discusses the importance of time horizons in understanding sustainability and economic progress.
"what surprised you the most about how the great reset has occurred well you may recall also in the complacent class i predict that racial issues and segregated segregation will be a central part of it..."
Sustainability vs. Economic Growth
In this segment, Cowen elaborates on the relationship between sustainability and economic growth, referencing a lecture he gave at Stanford. He argues that a balanced time horizon is crucial for fostering growth while avoiding excessive risk aversion. Cowen suggests that economic growth is essential for addressing long-term challenges facing civilization.
"and let's talk about the really long run so you give a really interesting lecture at uh stanford where you're talking about how time horizons influence how we should weigh um sustainability and econom..."
Sustainability vs. Economic Growth
Cowen elaborates on the relationship between sustainability and economic growth, referencing a lecture at Stanford. He critiques the notion of eternal economic growth and discusses the risks of being overly safety-oriented. Cowen suggests that a balanced perspective on growth is essential for addressing future challenges.
"and let's talk about the really long run so you give a really interesting lecture at uh stanford where you're talking about how time horizons influence how we should weigh um sustainability and econom..."
The Limits of Earthly Growth
In this thought-provoking segment, Cowen debates the finite limits of growth on Earth. He discusses the potential for human innovation and adaptation, while expressing skepticism about space colonization as a solution. Cowen highlights the importance of addressing earthly challenges, such as conflict and resource management.
"uh that's correct i probably said something like that in the talk and i think there's a big qualifier here if you're what i would call a space optimist you can believe in a very long-term horizon with..."
The Limits of Earth and Space Optimism
Cowen discusses the constraints of growth on Earth and the implications of space colonization. He expresses skepticism about the feasibility of becoming a space-faring civilization and emphasizes the importance of addressing issues on Earth. Cowen argues that while growth may be finite, there are still many opportunities for innovation and expansion within our planet's resources.
"uh that's correct i probably said something like that in the talk and i think there's a big qualifier here if you're what i would call a space optimist you can believe in a very long-term horizon with..."
The Threat of Weapons of Mass Destruction
Cowen warns about the long-term risks posed by weapons of mass destruction and the potential for major wars. He critiques the optimism surrounding declining violence and emphasizes the unpredictable nature of future conflicts. Cowen's insights raise concerns about the fragility of civilization amidst technological advancements.
"years uh weapons of mass destruction i think in any year the chance of a war is quite small but if you just let the clock tick for long enough a major war will happen and i don't think you have to bel..."
The Threat of Weapons of Mass Destruction
In this segment, Cowen addresses the risks posed by weapons of mass destruction and the potential for major wars in the future. He critiques the notion that violence is on a permanent decline and warns that the possibility of catastrophic conflict remains. Cowen emphasizes the need for vigilance against the dangers of war and the fragility of civilization.
"years uh weapons of mass destruction i think in any year the chance of a war is quite small but if you just let the clock tick for long enough a major war will happen and i don't think you have to bel..."
Common Sense Morality and Its Relevance
In this concluding segment, Cowen reflects on the alignment of his views with common sense morality. He discusses the evolution of moral standards and their implications for societal progress. Cowen suggests that common sense morality, while not perfect, often leads to sound judgments in complex issues.
"this crisis i don't see any evidence of a major war in this crisis or indeed at all in 2020 uh maybe the single biggest problem would be china taiwan south china sea possibly north korea uh those are ..."
Common Sense Morality and Its Evolution
Cowen reflects on the alignment of his views with common sense morality, discussing its evolutionary nature. He suggests that while common sense morality may not always lead to optimal outcomes, it often provides valuable insights into societal issues. This segment highlights the importance of understanding moral frameworks in the context of economic and social challenges.
"this crisis i don't see any evidence of a major war in this crisis or indeed at all in 2020 uh maybe the single biggest problem would be china taiwan south china sea possibly north korea uh those are ..."
The Future of Free Societies
In this segment, Cowen reflects on the future of free and prosperous societies, acknowledging the complexities of defining 'freedom' in an era of advanced surveillance. He expresses skepticism about totalitarianism as a long-term strategy and discusses the current state of China’s governance.
"again in the book that um your views uh end up aligning with common sense morality a lot now is there a re deeper reason why common sense morality is so often right about these issues or is it just a ..."
The Future of Free Societies
Cowen reflects on the future of free and prosperous societies, acknowledging the complexities of defining 'freedom' in an era of advanced surveillance. He expresses a qualified optimism about the long-term viability of free societies, while also recognizing the competitive nature of autocracies like China.
"your views uh end up aligning with common sense morality a lot now is there a re deeper reason why common sense morality is so often right about these issues or is it just a coincidence well common se..."
China's Autocratic Future
Cowen shares his views on China's political trajectory, suggesting that there is no evidence to support the idea that increased wealth will lead to greater democracy. He highlights the current lack of democratic desire among the Chinese populace and the implications for global governance.
"competitive pressures people observe what's relatively successful again not an optimum process but if your philosophy totally contradicts common sense morality as say peter singer sometimes does i thi..."
Big Business and Complacency
Tyler Cowen discusses the relationship between big business and the complacent class. He examines the decline in startup formation and its implications, arguing that while big businesses are efficient and productive, they also face significant competition. Cowen emphasizes the innovative potential of large companies and their role in driving economic dynamism.
"more i don't think totalitarianism is a long run winning strategy i think autocracy has proven to be a much better competitor than we all thought 20 years ago we should take that seriously uh that's w..."
The Great Stagnation Thesis
In this segment, Cowen addresses the Great Stagnation thesis, asserting that while big businesses are innovative, sectors like education and healthcare continue to stagnate. He critiques the American response to the pandemic and highlights the need for breakthroughs in these critical areas.
"so i think the startups that will carry dynamism uh again covetous side that's obviously damaging startups uh it's not clear to me they're doing worse than they were doing 10 years ago and i would jus..."
Big Business and Complacency
Cowen discusses the relationship between big business and societal complacency, referencing his book 'The Complacent Class.' He analyzes the decline in startup formation and the implications for innovation, arguing that big businesses can still drive dynamism despite their size.
"ago we should take that seriously uh that's where i am right now so in the long term you think china will remain um autocratic depends what you mean by long term but i don't see any particular reason ..."
The Role of Big Business in Innovation
In this segment, Cowen argues that big businesses are often at the forefront of innovation, countering the narrative of stagnation. He cites examples like Amazon and Google to illustrate how large companies can adapt and innovate, contributing positively to the economy.
"startups are less common well it depends on the area you look at so if you look at the decline in startups it's actually remarkably concentrated in retail and i don't think i knew that when i wrote th..."
Marginal Revolution University
Cowen shares insights about Marginal Revolution University, an online platform for economics education. He emphasizes that it serves as a supplement to traditional education rather than a replacement. Cowen discusses the benefits of online learning while acknowledging the irreplaceable value of in-person interactions and mentorship in a university setting.
"it's the other stuff and speaking of the education sector you created a marginal revolution university which is like an online college for economics courses how did that turn out and i mean in terms o..."
Personal Reflections on West Virginia
Tyler Cowen reflects on his personal experiences in Parkersburg, West Virginia, where he lived during his youth. He shares anecdotes about his time there and the connections he has to the area, providing a personal touch to the broader themes discussed in the episode.
"okay so on a lighter note you visited parkersburg this summer west virginia absolutely i was so excited yeah i i lived there for three years um between i think the age of 12 to 15. and my my dad worke..."
Stagnation in Key Sectors
Cowen addresses the concept of the 'great stagnation,' emphasizing that while big businesses are innovative, sectors like education and healthcare continue to struggle. He expresses optimism about potential breakthroughs in biomedical research but remains critical of the overall productivity in these areas.
"business so i'll still write them a love letter but about the bigger picture ah interesting um but it is there then something complacent about the fact that big business is especially efficient and pr..."
Marginal Revolution University: A Supplement, Not a Replacement
Cowen discusses his initiative, Marginal Revolution University, emphasizing its role as a supplement to traditional education rather than a replacement. He highlights the benefits of online learning while acknowledging the irreplaceable value of in-person education and mentorship.
"so you know healthcare is one area where we might make major breakthroughs through biomedical research and on that i'm much more optimistic on education it seems to me the sector is getting hammered a..."
Decline of Aesthetics: A Cultural Reflection
In this segment, Cowen explores the decline of architectural beauty in Parkersburg and compares it to historical examples of aesthetic degradation under communism. He ponders the loss of cultural self-confidence and the implications of economic decline on community pride.
"some things about parkersburg that i never noticed in three years of living there uh can you talk about your experience there well it's an old west virginia town that has a background in oil and gas m..."
Advice for Young People
Cowen shares personal anecdotes from his youth and offers advice to young individuals. He emphasizes the importance of finding good mentors and building a supportive network of friends, highlighting how these relationships can significantly impact personal and professional growth.
"get so much worse because i i mean i didn't even think about this before um i read your column about this but i don't know if you got to see parkersburg high school while you were in parkersburg uh pr..."
The Value of Traditional Education
In this segment, Cowen reflects on the unique benefits of attending traditional universities, such as networking, mentorship, and social interaction. He argues that while online resources are valuable, the experiences gained from in-person education are crucial for personal and professional development.
"educational experience so tell me what we can't replace because uh marginal unit revolution university is great and if i was a young person interested in economics what am i getting from going to coll..."
The Impact of Mentorship
In this segment, Cowen elaborates on the critical role mentors play in shaping one's potential. He explains how mentors provide insights and inspiration that can help individuals recognize their capabilities, even if they don't always follow their advice directly.
"in interesting um okay so i want to ask you about your advice for uh young people you so can you tell us about what you were like when you were 19 and what advice you would give to like a generic 19 y..."
Personal Ties to West Virginia
Cowen shares his personal connection to West Virginia, reminiscing about his childhood experiences in Parkersburg. He reflects on the significance of place and community in shaping one's identity and perspectives.
"it and that's my vision and again we can have competition and figure out if 20 is the right number 15 30 whatever but the people who think it's somehow all khan academy or i don't know i've never seen..."
Advice for Young People
In this segment, Cowen reflects on his own experiences at 19 and offers advice to young individuals. He emphasizes the importance of finding good mentors and building a supportive network of friends. Cowen believes that these relationships are crucial for personal and professional growth, providing guidance and inspiration.
"so i thought my daughter and i we drove there hmm what happened why did the aesthetics get so much worse because i i mean i didn't even think about this before um i read your column about this but i d..."
Learning from Mentors: A Personal Journey
Cowen reflects on a mentor from his youth who inspired him to read extensively. He discusses the profound influence of personal connections and how they can instill ambition and a love for learning, emphasizing the importance of having tangible role models.
"made me wiser and more prudent and i eventually was able to do things like manage projects that i certainly was would not have been able to do at 19 and that came through listening to advice but my ki..."
The Impact of Mentorship
Cowen elaborates on why mentors are vital for personal development, explaining that they provide insights and glimpses into potential futures. He shares a personal story about a mentor who inspired him to read extensively, highlighting the profound influence that mentors can have on one's ambitions and aspirations.
"advice why are mentors so important i think they only teach you a few things but those few things are so important they give you a glimpse of what you can be and you are oddly blind to that in the abs..."
The Importance of Personal Connections
Cowen argues for the significance of having personal mentors over solely relying on online resources. He discusses the value of face-to-face interactions and how they can enhance one's understanding and ambition, advocating for a balanced approach to mentorship.
"i don't know that you listen to them that much or even ought to uh like there was one fellow i met when i was young his name was walter grinder and he had just tried to read as many books as possible ..."
Sneak Peek into Cowen's Upcoming Book
Cowen provides a brief overview of his upcoming book on identifying talent, co-authored with Daniel Gross. He shares insights about the book's focus on spotting and signaling talent, while maintaining a commitment to delivering fresh content that stands apart from his previous works.
"get both um okay so this this is this is uh this is very interesting because it it goes to the topic of the new book you're writing which is unidentifying talent yeah are you ready to give some sneak ..."
Unidentifying Talent: A Sneak Peek
Cowen introduces his upcoming book, co-authored with Daniel Gross, titled 'Unidentifying Talent.' He discusses the focus of the book on spotting and signaling talent rather than merely developing it. This segment provides insights into the book's themes and Cowen's approach to understanding talent in various contexts.
"important and again it's a portfolio approach you want both and now you can get both um okay so this this is this is uh this is very interesting because it it goes to the topic of the new book you're ..."
Optimism in Talent Development
In this segment, Cowen discusses his views on the capacity for individuals to develop talents after the age of 18. He reflects on the importance of continued growth and learning, suggesting that while early development is crucial, significant progress can still be made later in life.
"i'm not pretending it's some other thing you want to buy and people demand that you do it but like my bloomberg columns they won't just be from the book they won't just be from the blog the blog will ..."
Optimism in Talent Development
In this segment, Cowen addresses the capacity for individuals to develop talents after the age of 18. He expresses optimism about the potential for growth and development in adulthood, suggesting that while early training is beneficial, significant progress can still be made later in life.
"just like talk about cass or something right you might actually want to in fact they do but they won't let you i'm very excited to read it um oh let's go back to the great stagnation and it's a very p..."
Optimism in Talent Development
Cowen shares his views on the capacity for individuals to develop talents after the age of 18. He argues that while early development is crucial in some fields, many people can still cultivate their skills later in life, drawing on diverse experiences to enhance their perspectives.
"do it huh because before 18 you're much less able i mean clearly there's some areas where that's not true so like some areas in sports if you start tennis at 19 these days you're just not going to be ..."
Optimism in Talent Development
Cowen shares his perspective on the capacity for individuals to develop talents after turning 18. He argues that while early development is crucial in some fields, many people can still cultivate their skills later in life, bringing fresh perspectives from diverse experiences.
"do it huh because before 18 you're much less able i mean clearly there's some areas where that's not true so like some areas in sports if you start tennis at 19 these days you're just not going to be ..."
Temperament Stability and Change
This segment explores Cowen's views on temperament stability from ages 18 to 70. He suggests that while some changes can occur, particularly in women due to societal pressures, overall temperament remains relatively stable during adulthood.
"and do you think temperaments can change significantly after 18 or just interests and skills i guess i tend to think temperament is relatively stable i mean when you're very very old it's different an..."
The Stability of Temperament
Discussing the stability of temperament, Cowen posits that while interests and skills may evolve, a person's core temperament tends to remain stable from age 18 to 70. He acknowledges exceptions but believes that significant changes in temperament are rare during this period.
"significantly after 18 or just interests and skills i guess i tend to think temperament is relatively stable i mean when you're very very old it's different and when you're very very young it's differ..."
Gender Differences in Development
Cowen discusses the differences in development between men and women, particularly in how societal factors influence their capacity for change. He notes that women may experience more significant changes due to societal disadvantages and formative experiences.
"radical hmm you're just like a smart nerdy white guy at 18. like if there's something you can be really good at like you're going to get your chance i'm not saying you might not hit some bad luck but ..."
Gender Differences in Change
Cowen examines the differences in how men and women may change over time, attributing women's potential for greater change to formative experiences such as childbearing. He suggests that societal disadvantages can lead to more radical changes in women compared to men.
"radical hmm you're just like a smart nerdy white guy at 18. like if there's something you can be really good at like you're going to get your chance i'm not saying you might not hit some bad luck but ..."
Feminization and Societal Safety
In this segment, Cowen discusses the implications of a more feminized society, arguing that increased safety is a positive outcome. He explores the trade-offs between safety and economic growth, suggesting that while feminization may lead to lower growth, it is an inevitable and beneficial societal shift.
"rejigger when you start the age count for personality not changing that much maybe for some people it's a little after 18. and uh speaking of the gender distinctions here you've mentioned um when you'..."
Feminization and Societal Safety
In this thought-provoking segment, Cowen argues that the feminization of society has led to increased safety, which he views as a positive outcome. He discusses the trade-offs between safety and economic growth, suggesting that a balance can be achieved.
"and uh speaking of the gender distinctions here you've mentioned um when you're talking about the great stagnation thesis that uh society has turned more effeminate and that that is on balance a good ..."
Economic Growth vs. Redistribution
Cowen addresses the debate between economic growth and redistribution, asserting that growth is essential for improving the lives of the least privileged. He emphasizes the importance of patience in recognizing the long-term benefits of economic progress.
"highly feminized society and i think we can do that i mean i i view myself as a part of trying to do that somehow thinking reversing feminism feminization will get the rate of growth high again uh it'..."
Economic Growth vs. Redistribution
Cowen contrasts the views of conservatives and progressives regarding societal progress. He argues that while progressives focus on redistribution as a means to help the least privileged, he believes that long-term economic growth is more effective in raising overall living standards.
"highly feminized society and i think we can do that i mean i i view myself as a part of trying to do that somehow thinking reversing feminism feminization will get the rate of growth high again uh it'..."
The Biggest Mistake in History
Cowen reflects on the concept of historical mistakes, suggesting that it is difficult to pinpoint a single decision that had the most negative impact. He discusses the complexities of historical events, such as World War II, and the potential consequences of alternative outcomes.
"because of our own impatience and i get you can go quite a while and not see that happening but it's nonetheless true um okay so this is a question i asked brian kaplan uh when he was on what's the bi..."
The Biggest Mistake in History
In this segment, Cowen reflects on the concept of historical mistakes, discussing the complexities of events like World War II and the potential consequences of different historical outcomes. He emphasizes the difficulty in pinpointing a single mistake that had the most significant negative impact.
"because of our own impatience and i get you can go quite a while and not see that happening but it's nonetheless true um okay so this is a question i asked brian kaplan uh when he was on what's the bi..."
Nuclear Threats in Our Lifetime
In a sobering discussion, Cowen predicts the likelihood of a nuclear event occurring within our lifetime, emphasizing the risks associated with terrorism and accidents. He contrasts this with the lower probability of a full-scale nuclear war, providing insights into contemporary global security concerns.
"in many many parts of the world and that was hardly to have been expected and do you think a nuke's going to go off in my lifetime uh a non-tested nuke yes absolutely a nuke used to kill people yes um..."
Nuclear Threats in Our Lifetime
Cowen shares his views on the likelihood of nuclear incidents occurring in our lifetime, expressing concern over the potential for a nuclear attack or accident. He discusses the implications of such events and the current state of global safety.
"in many many parts of the world and that was hardly to have been expected and do you think a nuke's going to go off in my lifetime uh a non-tested nuke yes absolutely a nuke used to kill people yes um..."
Learning and Knowledge Accumulation
Cowen reflects on his learning journey from ages 15 to 25, noting the diminishing returns of knowledge acquisition as one ages. He discusses the importance of early exposure to diverse economic theories and the gaps in his education, particularly in programming and mathematics, which he wishes he had pursued more vigorously.
"you know thomas shelling was my doctoral advisor and he was the person who first in a serious way pondered these possibilities in print in an academic manner i think we don't know what any of these le..."
Learning and Knowledge Accumulation
Cowen reflects on his learning experiences from ages 15 to 25, noting the diminishing returns of knowledge as one ages. He discusses the importance of early exposure to various economic theories and how it shaped his current views, while also expressing a desire for more technical skills like programming.
"you know thomas shelling was my doctoral advisor and he was the person who first in a serious way pondered these possibilities in print in an academic manner i think we don't know what any of these le..."
Pessimistic and Optimistic Futures
Cowen shares his concerns about the long-term effects of the current crisis, including psychological scarring and economic collapse. He contrasts this with a more optimistic view of potential recovery, highlighting improvements in death rates and the possibility of better preparedness for future pandemics.
"but not as high as they had been and if you were exposed to like left-wing economics when uh when you were a teenager instead of austrian stuff would you today is there a high likelihood you would be ..."
Pessimistic and Optimistic Futures
Cowen shares his concerns about the long-term effects of the current crisis, including psychological scarring and economic collapse. He contrasts this with an optimistic outlook, highlighting the potential for improved health outcomes and economic recovery post-pandemic. Cowen emphasizes the importance of being prepared for future pandemics and the silver linings that may emerge from current challenges.
"and if you were exposed to like left-wing economics when uh when you were a teenager instead of austrian stuff would you today is there a high likelihood you would be um more to the left or would you ..."
The Silver Lining of Crisis
In this concluding segment, Cowen discusses the potential benefits that could arise from the pandemic, such as advancements in biomedicine and preparedness for future health crises. He acknowledges the severity of the current situation while suggesting that the lessons learned could lead to significant improvements in public health and global cooperation.
"immigration uh i worry about all those things and i think those quite possibly are plausible outcomes they're not like you know tail scenarios they're happening right now okay i think people think som..."
Silver Linings in Crisis
In this concluding segment, Cowen discusses the potential positive outcomes of the pandemic, such as advancements in biomedicine and preparedness for future health crises. He emphasizes that while the current situation is dire, it could have been much worse, and there are reasons to remain hopeful.
"immigration uh i worry about all those things and i think those quite possibly are plausible outcomes they're not like you know tail scenarios they're happening right now okay i think people think som..."