All Segments
Luca Dellanna — How to Play (and Win) Long Term Games | Episode 228
38 segments available
When Luca Dellanna speaks, I listen. Unlike many of the other management, productivity and behavioral gurus out there, Luca is ruthlessly committed to providing actionable, tangible advice which is rooted in the messy, chaotic reality of daily life. This conversation, my second with Luca, revolves around his excellent new book, Winning Long-Term Games: Reproducible Success Strategies to Achieve Your Life Goals - https://luca-dellanna.com/winning-long-term-games/. Why should you care? Because long-term strategies consistently deliver better results. In other words, being able to identify, play, and win long-term games is, quite literally, the secret to success. With examples ranging from NASA janitors to Stonehenge spray painters, we discuss how to successfully identify reproducible long-term strategies and how to persuade others to get on board with them. We also explore how hypotheticals can be an insanely powerful tool for ensuring our short-term actions remain consistent with our long-term goals (and yes, before you ask, my beloved premeditation makes an appearance). I hope you enjoy our conversation as much as I did! For more thoughts on the episode, the full transcript, and bucketloads of other stuff designed to make you go; “Hmm, that’s interesting!” check out our Substack - https://newsletter.osv.llc. Important Links: - Winning Long-Term Games: Reproducible Success Strategies to Achieve Your Life Goals - https://luca-dellanna.com/winning-long-term-games/ - Luca’s Website - https://luca-dellanna.com - Luca’s Twitter - https://twitter.com/dellannaluca?s=21&t=vtqwBZ0zdc1S-VbrHeivzA - Luca’s Previous Episode - https://www.infiniteloopspodcast.com/luca-dellanna-on-survival-signals-success-ep174/ - Five Counterintuitive Truths We Learned From Luca Dellanna - https://newsletter.osv.llc/p/5-counterintuitive-truths-we-learned Show Notes: 0:00:00 Intro 0:00:58 Main podcast 0:01:42 The Tale of the Three Bricklayers 0:07:55 Tighten Up Those Feedback Loops 0:13:21 The Perils of Short-Term Thinking 0:20:35 How to Signal Long-Term Intentions 0:27:45 Reproducibility is King 0:39:58 The Mighty Power of the Humble Hypothetical 0:48:52 Concretizing the Abstract 0:51:19 Goldilocks Solutions 0:55:18 Extracting Tangible Benefits From Stratospheric Objectives 0:59:26 Intuition & Luck in Long-Term Games 1:04:53 Risk of Tactic vs Risk of Strategy; Flexible North Stars 1:15:42 Build Your Own Long-Term Company 1:22:59 Tesla’s Risky Success 1:27:50 Luca as Emperor of the World Books Mentioned: - Winning Long-Term Games: Reproducible Success Strategies to Achieve Your Life Goals - https://luca-dellanna.com/winning-long-term-games/; by Luca Dellanna - The WEIRDest People in the World: How the West Became Psychologically Peculiar and Particularly Prosperous; by Joseph Henrich - The Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy; by Douglas Adams - Antifragile: Things that Gain from Disorder; by Nassim Nicholas Taleb - The Infinite Game: How Great Businesses Achieve Long-Lasting Success; by Simon Sinek
Segments Timeline
Defying Human Nature in Investing
Luca Dellanna discusses how successful investors defy human nature by taking actions that yield no immediate returns. He emphasizes the importance of long-term thinking and how changing focus can alter one's future. This segment sets the stage for understanding the mindset required for winning long-term games.
"[Music] successful investors don't really comply with human nature they defy it to get the most out of the year you also need to take some actions that have no immediate return today a very short time..."
The Tale of the Three Bricklayers
In this segment, Luca shares the allegorical tale of three bricklayers, each with a different perspective on their work. He advocates for the mindset of the third bricklayer, who sees his work as contributing to a greater purpose. This discussion highlights the significance of long-term goals and deriving meaning from one's work.
"with another infinite Loops I'm very excited to welcome back today's guest Luc Deana I love you you my my children are in Italy right now where I used to go every year and I need I really need to get ..."
Balancing Short-Term and Long-Term Goals
Luca explores the balance between short-term and long-term goals, emphasizing that both the second and third bricklayers can have valid motivations. He discusses the importance of ensuring that pursuing long-term goals does not come at the expense of personal responsibilities, such as family.
"that our listeners and viewers should be in your book well definitely not the first one I think personally that both the second and the third one are spine as long as you derive meaning from it and as..."
Engaging the Second Type of Bricklayer
Luca addresses how to engage employees who may only see their work as a means to an end. He suggests that managers should recognize and celebrate the immediate impact of their team's efforts, fostering a sense of purpose and motivation in the workplace.
"might have if he only cares about the cathedral that's great if that's everything he really cares about but if for example he cares both about the cathedral and his family for example he needs to bala..."
Immediate Feedback for Long-Term Engagement
In this segment, Luca advocates for immediate feedback in the workplace rather than relying on annual reviews. He explains how timely recognition of efforts can significantly boost employee morale and engagement, leading to a more motivated workforce.
"companies I work with like if you only like you cannot pretend that the all brick layers in your company are of the third type you cannot tell all you're here because we're working for the cathedral b..."
Shifting Mindsets for Long-Term Success
Luca discusses the common misconception that maximizing daily productivity leads to long-term success. He emphasizes the need to adopt a mindset focused on long-term strategies that allow for better options and less risky decisions, ultimately leading to sustainable success.
"Cathedral yeah I think that the key is to show them the impact of their work but the impact that they have now so not the impact they will have in a century once the cathedral is finished but the impa..."
The Importance of Time Frames in Goal Setting
Luca presents a thought experiment about time frames for achieving goals, illustrating how extending the timeline can open up better, less risky options. He encourages listeners to think about long-term strategies rather than seeking immediate results.
"I've seen that do I've seen people doing that not not at Starbucks I've seen it in other in other context and sometimes it can really bring some people to tear to to tears because for the first time t..."
Long-Term Solutions for Climate Change
In this segment, Luca critiques a recent activist group's approach to climate change, arguing that immediate actions can be counterproductive. He advocates for a long-term perspective that fosters collaboration and sustainable solutions, emphasizing the need for broad support in tackling global issues.
"conversation one of the things that I do now is uh I don't do any type of annual or even quarterly review for people who work with me I give them immediate feedback if I see them doing something that ..."
Shifting Focus to Long-Term Success
Luca Dellanna discusses the importance of shifting from a mindset of achieving goals as quickly as possible to one focused on achieving them with certainty and impact over a longer time frame. He critiques short-term thinking, using the example of climate change activism, and emphasizes the need for strategies that consider long-term consequences and societal support.
"that do not bring you the sacrifices that are accessive so one of the keys about winning long-term games is to s from how do I achieve my goals as fast as possible which makes you think about bad solu..."
The Dangers of Hyperbolic Discounting
Dellanna explains how investors often fall into the trap of hyperbolic discounting, focusing on short-term gains rather than long-term strategies. He highlights the risks associated with quick-fix mentalities and the importance of maintaining a long-term perspective to avoid poor decision-making and negative externalities.
"options some options are like some people become engineers and find some solution Advanced Grech some other people is b trust become a respected person and use your platform to change some habits in t..."
Inspiring Long-Term Thinking in Teams
In this segment, Dellanna shares strategies for inspiring employees to adopt a long-term focus. He emphasizes the need for clear communication about long-term objectives and the importance of leading by example through actions that demonstrate a commitment to sustainable success.
"um but that seems to be such a guiding it seems to be in the base code of our human operating system that we we look for and thus the popularity of all of the you know how how how to make a million do..."
Costly Signals for Long-Term Commitment
Dellanna discusses the concept of costly signaling as a way to demonstrate commitment to long-term goals. He suggests that actions which require investment or sacrifice can unify teams and reinforce a culture of long-term thinking, contrasting this with mere virtue signaling.
"think there are two parts to Des and and they are both necessary to work so the first thing is you should make extremely clear that you will not accept any objective that is achieved in a way that com..."
The Power of Premeditation
This segment focuses on the technique of premeditation, or premortem analysis, as a tool for decision-making. Dellanna explains how anticipating potential failures and considering various outcomes can help individuals and teams avoid common pitfalls and make more informed choices.
"value for that and so I I don't know top of my head it could be something like investing in the education of your employees even if you have a high to over that that's a way of signaling we are here f..."
Learning from Failures: A Strategic Approach
Dellanna emphasizes the importance of learning from both personal and others' failures to refine strategies. He advocates for a proactive approach to identifying potential obstacles and adjusting plans accordingly, using the example of authorship to illustrate the need for a comprehensive understanding of success.
"of like it it helps with some avoiding like common mistakes like quitting too early that's something that I mean everybody knows that it when you interview somebody who's like a great podcaster right ..."
The Illusion of Smartness in Decision-Making
In this concluding segment, Dellanna explores the cognitive biases that lead individuals to overestimate their intelligence and decision-making abilities. He discusses the importance of humility and awareness of one's limitations in order to make better long-term decisions and avoid common traps in thinking.
"reproducible give us give us a couple more ideas along those lines yeah I think the the key is the last um like you the last word you use is producible I think that this is the key because there are a..."
The Illusion of Driving Skills
Dellanna uses a driving analogy to illustrate how people often overestimate their abilities. He references a study showing that 93% of American drivers believe they are better than average, which is statistically impossible. This segment explores cognitive biases and the difficulty of recognizing one's own flaws while being quick to judge others.
"and he said to the questioner you know your question isn't isn't really Mak sense because it it it's abstract I I had to make decisions in the full-blooded and very emotional reality of the Here and N..."
Emotional Decision-Making in the Moment
In this segment, Dellanna addresses the challenge of making decisions under emotional pressure. He suggests that creating guidelines and protocols can help mitigate impulsive choices. He also mentions a Swiss law requiring investors to document their motivations before making stock purchases, highlighting the importance of structured decision-making.
"not so this is this is this is one thing one one uh one component and for me the the answer is to see your myses always see your myses as an evidence that you are doing the of an underlying problem so..."
The Lake Wobegon Effect and Self-Perception
Dellanna discusses the Lake Wobegon effect, where individuals believe they are above average, and how this impacts self-awareness. He shares insights from his asset management career, emphasizing the need for protocols to counteract emotional decision-making. This segment underscores the importance of recognizing biases in self-assessment.
"be so I think that like you can start thinking about all um all of the systems uh and then anyway I think that it just goes to understanding that making the wrong emotional decision will be the one of..."
Training for Long-Term Success
In this segment, Dellanna outlines a three-step process for fostering a long-term vision within teams. He emphasizes the importance of clearly communicating goals, using hypotheticals for training, and providing consistent feedback. This approach aims to align team members with long-term objectives and improve decision-making.
"maxims like if if you want to know what your own deficiencies are simply look at what irritates you at other people and that's going to give you a pretty good example of what your own flaws are H how ..."
Hypotheticals as a Training Tool
Dellanna elaborates on the effectiveness of using hypotheticals in training sessions. He explains how role-playing scenarios can accelerate learning and decision-making skills. This segment highlights the emotional engagement and immediate feedback that hypotheticals provide, making them a powerful tool for developing long-term thinking.
"so I think that there that there is a like us use a three-step process the first one which really doesn't have to be to be long like it can really be just just a few minutes is to explain extremely cl..."
Feedback Loops for Continuous Improvement
In this segment, Dellanna stresses the importance of regular feedback in the learning process. He advocates for structured feedback sessions following training exercises to reinforce learning and correct mistakes. This approach aims to create a culture of continuous improvement and accountability within teams.
"good good point because uh you're you're missing this F something like that and then you move to that to the next step which is you make them take decisions and you give them like feedback on the deci..."
Using AI for Hypothetical Scenarios
Dellanna discusses the integration of AI in generating hypothetical scenarios for decision-making. He believes that AI can help explore null sets and hypotheses that humans might overlook. This segment emphasizes the potential of AI as a collaborative tool to enhance strategic thinking and learning.
"the time what do you think about uh I love the idea of hypothetical something I do quite a bit uh when I'm thinking about things uh and one of the things that I've been doing increasingly is using uh ..."
Inspiring Long-Term Thinking in Teams
In this concluding segment, Dellanna shares strategies for inspiring teams to adopt long-term thinking. He suggests exposing team members to successful role models and demonstrating the values of strategic thinking. This approach aims to shift mindsets from short-term gains to sustainable success.
"via negativa about all the things that didn't work when we were at osam uh shasy Asset Management we had what we called a research graveyard and it was all the things that we researched that didn't wo..."
Antifragility in Action
In this segment, Dellanna explains the concept of antifragility, illustrating how challenges can strengthen individuals and organizations. He draws parallels between physical training and mental resilience, emphasizing the need to find the right balance of challenges that motivate without overwhelming. This approach is crucial for fostering a culture of growth and adaptability.
"that said that said I think that some some of the things like you can do one if possible is to bring people in contact with people who already demonstrate the values of or the thinking that you want t..."
Finding the Goldilocks Zone
Dellanna introduces the 'Goldilocks solution' in management, where tasks must be neither too easy nor too difficult to foster motivation and growth. He discusses the importance of providing challenges that are just right to encourage employees to engage and succeed, thereby creating a positive feedback loop that reinforces their efforts.
"would be what this would be one thing put it them in contact even just for an hour with someone who's already practicing and leaving the values and the judgment and evaluations you want them to to do ..."
The Value of Big Goals
This segment explores the significance of ambitious goals, such as the moon landing, and how they can lead to unexpected innovations. Dellanna emphasizes the need to communicate the tangible benefits of such goals to motivate individuals and groups, ensuring that they understand the broader impact of their efforts.
"reinforcement so a lot of management whether you're a personal coach at the gym whether you a teacher at the at the school or whether you're a manager in the company is finding the range that is that ..."
Intuition vs. Empirical Evidence
Dellanna contrasts intuition with empirical evidence in decision-making. He argues that while intuition can be valuable, it must be supported by data to mitigate risks. This balance allows individuals to leverage their instincts while remaining grounded in reality, enhancing their ability to navigate long-term challenges.
"advancements that spring from it I think that one necessary thing is again like this concept is sometimes like upstart and I would make it as concrete as possible so for example if you tell people jus..."
Increasing Your Surface Area of Luck
In this insightful discussion, Dellanna highlights the importance of increasing one's 'surface area of luck' through strategic networking and preparation. He emphasizes that simply being in the right place is not enough; individuals must also be ready to seize opportunities when they arise, requiring a proactive approach to personal and professional growth.
"intuition so that also leads us into the idea of how how can somebody pursuing these long-term games uh and goals uh increase their surface area of luck that fascinates me I think this is super import..."
Evaluating Risk: Tactics vs. Strategy
In this segment, Luca differentiates between the risks associated with tactics and those linked to overall strategy. He explains that while a single high-risk tactic may seem daunting, repeated attempts can lead to success, emphasizing the importance of a long-term perspective in evaluating risks.
"like you need to think about everything not just what's necessary but but you need to have a set of actions which is sufficient no the other part of uh human nature it seems to me that uh I I've had a..."
Overcoming Past Limitations
Dellanna addresses how past successes can blind companies to new opportunities. He uses the example of GE's missed chance to commercialize transistors due to their focus on vacuum tubes, illustrating the need for a broader perspective to adapt to changing markets.
"something might appear at least originally like like oh you know that's going to be costly or that isn't going to work that's not sustainable um and you know things like the internet people said that ..."
Defining Mission Statements for Flexibility
In this discussion, Luca explains how to craft mission statements that focus on customer benefits rather than internal processes. He argues that a broad, customer-centric mission allows for greater adaptability and innovation within a company.
"payoff you have a 95% chance of losing if you can take that b 20 time you have a very high chances of succeeding eventually so it becomes a very good B so very often we evaluate the risk based on the ..."
Building a Long-Term Focus from Day One
Dellanna outlines the steps to establish a company dedicated to long-term goals. He stresses the importance of hiring the right leadership and fostering a culture that prioritizes long-term thinking over short-term gains.
"do so I make an example if Facebook said we are a social website they would have missed the transition to mobile if Facebook says we are a way for people to connect online then moving to Mobile become..."
Encouraging Agility in Organizations
In this segment, Luca discusses the balance between agility and stability in organizations. He emphasizes the need for companies to remain adaptable while also maintaining a clear focus on their long-term objectives, suggesting methods to empower employees to pivot when necessary.
"form those networks of people so how how would you practically get let's say again you're working with the management team um and uh you you read their mission statements and what you see is exactly w..."
The Purpose of Mission Statements
Luca Dellanna discusses the importance of mission statements in organizations, emphasizing that they should not be self-contained tasks but rather tools that shape the future. He highlights the need for agility in management and the balance between structured processes and flexibility, advocating for prioritization in achieving long-term goals.
"like you do it as an independent task okay that done which is whose purpose is self-contained it's doing the task no the purpose is not selfcontain is about how that changes the future so having the i..."
Agility vs. Structure in Management
In this segment, Luca explores the critical balance between agility and structure within organizations. He explains how companies can encourage agility while avoiding the pitfalls of hasty decision-making. By using hypotheticals to clarify expectations, leaders can foster a constructive environment that supports both innovation and accountability.
"then how would you um one of the things that I've noticed about especially younger Enterprises is that the agility of the management team is quite important um and and by that I mean you know you can ..."
Tesla: A Case Study in Long-Term Vision
Luca uses Tesla as a case study to illustrate the complexities of balancing long-term vision with short-term operational strategies. He acknowledges Tesla's successes while critiquing some of its riskier short-term decisions. This discussion highlights the importance of maintaining a long-term focus to ensure sustainable success.
"ways in which you can do it wrong so you need to take uh you need to balance those two thingss the long way to balance is you start with just agility and then someone at some point someone will take s..."
Elon Musk: The Nuance of Risk
Luca Dellanna delves into the polarizing figure of Elon Musk, discussing how his approach to risk can be both inspiring and cautionary. He suggests that while Musk's long-term goals are admirable, a more balanced approach to short-term risks could lead to even greater success. This nuanced perspective encourages a deeper understanding of risk-taking in business.
"happened earlier in Tesla history and uh and it went bankrupt or got Acquired and so on and sometimes when people read about my book like they're saying like Luka you're advising like take a bit less ..."
Incepting Long-Term Thinking
In this concluding segment, Luca shares two powerful ideas he would instill in the world: the importance of long-term thinking and understanding opportunity costs. He emphasizes that taking actions with delayed results can lead to greater rewards, urging listeners to consider the long-term impact of their decisions rather than seeking immediate gratification.
"I love that because then you can increase the base rate in parallel worlds in which Elon succeeds well I'm my producer always gives me the metaphorical hook on my phone um so I could talk to you for f..."