
61 segments available
Seth Stephens-Davidowitz, a data scientist and bestselling author, is known for his brilliant use of data to upend conventional wisdom - often with humorous, surprising, and occasionally shocking results. His latest book, Who Makes the NBA, uses data to interrogate some of basketball’s biggest questions, consistently yielding unexpected insights. Here’s the kicker - he wrote the entire book in just 30 days after discovering Code Interpreter. Unsurprisingly for a former quant, I had a blast chatting to Seth. Topics discussed include why so many NBA players are called Chris, whether basketball is due for a Moneyball moment, and why so many of us misunderstand the rags-to-riches story. I hope you enjoy this conversation as much as I did. For the full transcript, episode takeaways, and bucketloads of other goodies designed to make you go, “Hmm, that’s interesting!”, check out our Substack - https://8ca54796.streaklinks.com/CJPd0z7cXCh07hc4JAiMaKTC/https%3A%2F%2Fnewsletter.osv.llc%2F. Important Links: - Seth’s Website - https://sethsd.com - Twitter - https://x.com/SethS_D Show Notes: 0:00:00 Intro 0:01:05 Author, data scientist… comedian? 0:03:47 Using Code Interpreter to write a book in 30 days 0:11:09 The trait that makes it incredibly easy to become an NBA player 0:14:08 Why the best NBA player in history isn’t who you think it is 0:17:22 Is basketball due a Moneyball moment? 0:20:21 Why are so many NBA players named Chris? 0:23:34 What people get wrong about the rags-to-riches story 0:32:29 The hidden magic of data storytelling 0:35:18 Finding your audience 0:38:14 The danger of glamour 0:43:54 Keep it simple, stupid 0:48:02 Why the standard interview sucks 0:54:50 Doppelgangers & the power of A/B testing 1:04:07 The overdue revolution in health data 1:11:33 Why Google should be worried 1:14:08 Stated vs revealed preferences 1:19:10 The power of enormous data sets 1:23:27 Seth as World Emperor Books Mentioned: - Who Makes the NBA?: Data-Driven Answers to Basketball's Biggest Questions; by Seth Stephens-Davidowitz - Don't Trust Your Gut: Using Data to Get What You Really Want in Life; by Seth Stephens-Davidowitz - Everybody Lies: Big Data, New Data, and What the Internet Can Tell Us About Who We Really Are; by Seth Stephens-Davidowitz - What Works on Wall Street: A Guide to the Best-Performing Investment Strategies of All Time; by Jim O’Shaughnessy
Seth Stephens-Davidowitz shares his struggles with writing books and how discovering the Code Interpreter revolutionized his writing process. He emphasizes the drastic reduction in time for tasks that previously took months, highlighting the transformative potential of AI in creative fields.
"writing a book is just such a pain in the ass I'm just like I don't know if I can do this again then I came across code interpreter I'm just like oh my God things that were taking me four months are a..."
Seth discusses the common misconception that NBA players often come from troubled backgrounds. He presents data showing that players from two-parent, middle-class homes are more likely to succeed, challenging the narrative of the rags-to-riches story in sports.
"a lot of things get overhyped but on the things that you've just mentioned it is very difficult to overhype what that will be able to do across every industry the geek shall truly inherit the earth th..."
In this segment, the host introduces Seth Stephens-Davidowitz, highlighting his impressive academic background and diverse career as a data scientist, author, and comedian. The conversation sets the stage for discussing the intersection of data and basketball.
"if you look at the data both African-American and Caucasian males much more likely to reach the NBA if they come from a two parent home if they come from a middle class background rather than a four b..."
Seth expresses his passion for data and its ability to unlock insights that are not immediately obvious. He shares his journey through academia and how his experiences have shaped his understanding of data's power.
"shasy with yet another infinite Loops I am so excited by today's guest Seth Stevens David a witz did I get that right close enough yeah close enough in the ballar for a guy who's oh what to see I get ..."
Seth recounts his experience taking stand-up comedy classes as a break from his PhD studies. He reflects on how this creative outlet helped him recharge and approach his work with a fresh perspective.
"can unlock so many things that you do not intuitively get to listen you you've got a ba in Philosophy from Sanford you were 58 to Kappa PhD in Harvard and economics wow you are quite the overachiever ..."
Seth shares the challenges he faced while writing his previous books and how the Code Interpreter changed his approach. He emphasizes the importance of efficiency in the writing process and how AI can facilitate creativity.
"love a graduate of the American Comedy Institute yeah so that is true yeah what a what a talent stack welcome SE well it was more just I was so burnt out I was doing a PhD in economics and I was just ..."
Seth describes the transformative experience of writing his latest book in just 30 days using AI tools. He reflects on how this period was unexpectedly fulfilling, contrasting it with typical milestones in life.
"yeah it was really fun it ended with a show in New York City I I kind of rigged the audience I had all my friends and family there so everyone like just cheered even when my jokes sucked everyone just..."
Seth discusses the profound impact of AI and data tools on various industries. He emphasizes the potential for these technologies to revolutionize fields that struggle with data management and analysis.
"graduate level course in economics and the the guy was going on and on about you know the model does this the model does that and it was you know typical Kan I'm 64 so it was when kanes was still kind..."
The conversation shifts to Seth's book about the NBA, where he reveals counterintuitive insights derived from data analysis. He highlights the surprising findings that challenge conventional wisdom in basketball.
"do he goes maybe you better try comedy instead of Economics Mr well what I love I love all your books I recommend them to people who makes the NBA don't trust your gut everybody lies they are just pac..."
Seth explains the correlation between height and the likelihood of becoming an NBA player. He shares data showing that each inch of height significantly increases a player's chances, illustrating the unique advantages that height provides in basketball.
"chance to talk about all of them today but but I want to start with a comment that you made when you when you discovered code interpreter you were like holy [ __ ] this stuff rocks and then you made y..."
Seth introduces the 'Muggsy Stat,' a metric he developed to evaluate players' performance based on height. He discusses how this stat highlights the achievements of shorter players like Muggsy Bogues and the implications of height in the NBA.
"I was so I'd written these two books everybody lies and don't trust your G and I was really happy you know proud of them and they led to all these great opportunities and you know they're bestsellers ..."
Seth reflects on the potential for AI to transform sports analytics, particularly in basketball. He discusses how AI can streamline data collection and analysis, leading to more accurate insights and strategies.
"know for for me I'm just a perfectionist so you know like there you know I got to disappear for years in writing these books and you know I I do a lot of regional research data analysis and then I cam..."
The discussion turns to the future of data in sports, with Seth pondering whether basketball is ready for a 'Moneyball' moment. He explores how data analytics could reshape team strategies and player evaluations.
"of like a data scientist life code interpreters just doing it in seconds and I'm just like wow that just leaves me to do the things I actually really like which is coming up with ideas testing them uh..."
Seth addresses the challenge of identifying top talent in data science, comparing it to the height advantage in basketball. He discusses the complexities of finding exceptional data scientists and the skills that contribute to success in the field.
"of I kind of say it was the best 30 days of my life which I was explain to a friends that recently and I just like said that like that was a normal thing and they're like set that's kind of odd like m..."
Seth discusses how AI tools like ChatGPT can enhance sports analytics, exemplified by creating an acronym for 'Mugsy' that stands for 'Understanding Game Given Sporting Individuals Effectiveness and Size.' He raises the question of whether basketball is ready for a 'Moneyball' moment, highlighting the potential of data analytics in the sport.
"for 14 years so he's number one so I'm like you know uh so I called the stat bugies after him and I'm like you know it' be really interesting uh I should like that should be an acronym for something m..."
In this segment, Seth reflects on the drafting process in the NBA, particularly the luck involved in selecting players like Nikola Jokic. He shares insights from an assistant general manager of the Denver Nuggets, emphasizing that many successful picks are often a matter of chance rather than strategic genius.
"equivalent uh for data scientists like in other words 7 foot tall one and seven chance to get into the NBA right what about a guy not being height but is there a similar metric for finding that fabulo..."
Seth elaborates on the complexities of player selection in the NBA, noting that salary cap rules often dictate choices rather than purely seeking out talent. He discusses how this complicates the idea of finding inefficiencies in the market, contrasting it with the 'Moneyball' approach.
"makes a great soccer player I don't think there's something like height that is so important relative to everything else I think there are lots of traits that come into play on that note do you think ..."
Seth challenges the common narrative that players from troubled backgrounds are more likely to succeed in the NBA. He presents data showing that both African-American and Caucasian players are more likely to reach the NBA if they come from two-parent, middle-class homes, highlighting the importance of socioeconomic status.
"I found out some interesting things one of the things that I uh found out is that kind of the stats people so much of picking the players just have to do with Arcane and very formulaic salary cap rule..."
In this segment, Seth discusses the prevalence of common names among NBA players, particularly among black players. He explains how names like 'Chris' and 'Paul' are more frequently given to players from wealthier backgrounds, revealing insights into the socioeconomic factors influencing player demographics.
"you know in and even the great picks in basketball yeah and and outside of sports there are many other industries that kind of fall into the same uh sunt cost fallacy uh and by that I mean like no thi..."
Seth critiques the rags-to-riches narrative often associated with successful athletes. He argues that the compelling stories of overcoming adversity can overshadow the reality that many successful players come from stable, supportive backgrounds, which is crucial for understanding the true dynamics of success in sports.
"specifically black players in the NBA which are the majority um and and the the common um wisdom is that they have unusual strikingly unusual in many uh uh instances names but you found that was not t..."
Seth emphasizes the significance of family structure and background in determining an athlete's success. He discusses how having a supportive family environment, particularly a two-parent household, plays a critical role in a player's journey to the NBA, countering popular misconceptions.
"rather than a poor background wealth is a huge advantage to reaching the NBA and the way you see it most striking is in the first names of black NBA players uh so the name the title for the chapter wa..."
In this segment, Seth explores why society is drawn to stories of individuals who overcome significant obstacles. He discusses how these narratives, while compelling, can lead to misguided career choices and a misunderstanding of what constitutes a realistic path to success.
"why people were struck by that um is because elsewhere you you write about you know there's a huge percentage of stories that fit into six structures right and and one of them is the rags to riches uh..."
Seth advises leveraging one's unique advantages when pursuing success, whether in sports or business. He warns against emulating one-in-a-million success stories and encourages focusing on areas where individuals have a higher probability of success based on their background and expertise.
"story for people to get involved with emotionally but you also point out that location where where the player grows up very very important the the father super important to the player as well and and ..."
Seth discusses the societal tendency to idolize extraordinary success stories, such as Mark Zuckerberg's, and the risks involved in pursuing similar paths without recognizing the underlying challenges. He emphasizes the importance of making informed decisions based on data rather than sensational narratives.
"and they tend to be uh insiders like really they know their business well and they tend to have already been good employees they were good at their job before they left out of their own to be an entre..."
In this segment, Seth reflects on the appeal of underdog stories in sports and business. He cautions against using these narratives as a blueprint for success, arguing that they can lead to unrealistic expectations and poor decision-making in one's career.
"we pay really close attention to novel dangers dangers that have been around for a long long time we're like he yeah we we we know about that and as I was listening to you of course intuitively one wo..."
Seth concludes by discussing the reality of entrepreneurship, emphasizing that success often comes from experience and insider knowledge rather than from taking wild risks. He encourages aspiring entrepreneurs to focus on their strengths and advantages rather than chasing the allure of extraordinary success stories.
"that particular class of football players and and and I think that it makes sense that the the Vivid unexpected unusual is is going to grabb our attention much more than the much more you know pedestr..."
In this segment, Seth reflects on how society is captivated by extraordinary success stories, which can skew perceptions of what it takes to succeed. He argues that the entertainment value of these narratives often overshadows the more mundane but realistic paths to success, leading to misguided aspirations.
"right right yeah and and that's the part that intrigues me to no end right the the movies are entertainment right and what's entertaining what's entertaining is not watching a guy go build a car deale..."
Seth highlights the significance of data-driven decision-making over anecdotal success stories. He compares the need for reliable data in investing to seeking a competent doctor, emphasizing that understanding the broader patterns in data can lead to better outcomes than relying on isolated success narratives.
"lead to really bad decisions down the road right be because if you if you are um going the root of I gonna take this incredibly rare individual who I have great admiration for and and I'm going to do ..."
Seth discusses the challenge of making data compelling and relatable. He shares his experience of presenting data in a way that resonates with audiences, emphasizing the need to weave stories into data presentations to capture attention and convey complex ideas effectively.
"I used to say I tell stories to explain to you why you shouldn't pay attention to stories when making your investment decisions but we we it seems to me that we humans are OS runs on stories right and..."
In this segment, Seth reveals insights from his research on online dating, highlighting that the most successful daters often have polarizing traits. He explains how being unique can attract a dedicated audience, paralleling this concept with business success and the importance of finding the right audience.
"other methods of telling stories cuz you know they are the stories of the masses they're this the stories of how Society Works in some like fundamental way and that is something I do put a lot of work..."
Seth critiques common metrics used in dating and relationships, such as beauty and career success, arguing that they often fail to predict long-term happiness. He emphasizes the importance of psychological traits and compatibility over superficial attributes.
"something similar in business sometimes where even if you are like a total geek like maybe you just need to sell the total Geeks right if you came and gave the presentation it was all numbers and grap..."
Seth explores the concept of 'glamour' in business, explaining how it can mislead individuals into pursuing unprofitable ventures. He shares findings that suggest businesses perceived as glamorous often have higher failure rates, urging a focus on substance over style.
"not found the right people to go on dates with so yeah and that also brings up your observation that people often uh with regularity choose the wrong metric right like Beauty career are they Rich are ..."
Seth discusses the tendency to overcomplicate ideas in academia and business, advocating for simplicity in decision-making processes. He shares anecdotes about how straightforward approaches can yield better results than complex models, emphasizing clarity and accessibility.
"us right so if someone shows up to the date like one of them is just stunning but they don't really have their stuff together and the other one is a little plain looking but gets the job done you know..."
In this segment, Seth addresses the pitfalls of relying on certain metrics, such as GPA, in hiring practices. He explains how these metrics can be misleading and advocates for a more nuanced understanding of what contributes to success in various fields.
"to the smaller was was very helpful but I think that we also we can't do that everywhere it's it's like the famous story about the Brits trying to get rid of rats in uh Colonial India and and they sai..."
Seth concludes by discussing the importance of balancing traditional metrics with a broader understanding of individual potential. He emphasizes the need to consider various traits and experiences beyond conventional measures to make informed hiring decisions.
"a universal pattern i' I've seen in in many areas yeah one of the things that is also difficult and I wonder if you've run into this situation as well sometimes when a pattern or a again I'm thinking ..."
Seth discusses the importance of data collection in hiring practices, advocating for a systematic approach to understanding interview effectiveness. He emphasizes that many organizations neglect to analyze the correlation between interview ratings and employee performance, leading to outdated hiring methods that may overlook valuable candidates.
"I'm coming across and my personal experience here is sort of interesting because I look at the world same way as you do and uh another thing that was found to actually not add anything and in certain ..."
Seth shares a unique interview question he used to gauge candidates' problem-solving skills, focusing on their thought processes rather than specific answers. He reflects on the backlash he faced for deviating from traditional interview norms, highlighting the resistance to change in established hiring practices.
"that I gave all of them was the S&P 500 is a total return index in other words it reinvests dividends and gives you the total return had you reinvested dividends over this period from 1926 27 through ..."
In this segment, Seth emphasizes the necessity of data-driven decision-making in business. He argues that many organizations fail to test their hypotheses and rely on outdated practices, which can lead to biases and ineffective strategies. He advocates for a culture of experimentation and data analysis to improve outcomes.
"frustrations I have with like the world and definitely business is just people don't collect enough data so like it's really frustrating to me that they've been doing all these interviews and they hav..."
Seth explains how tech companies utilize A/B testing to optimize user experiences and improve engagement. He contrasts traditional randomized control trials with the rapid experimentation capabilities of tech firms, illustrating how data can drive significant improvements in product design and user interaction.
"driven by the way the they didn't call my group at be Stern's quantitative Equity they called it systematic Equity right just used say yeah right and one of the things that um I have always believed i..."
Seth discusses the importance of understanding audience preferences through data analysis. He highlights how companies like Amazon and Netflix leverage user data to recommend content, emphasizing the effectiveness of data-driven strategies in enhancing user satisfaction and engagement.
"right I who knows whether this idea that I think is great really is great or really is going to attract the right type of audience that I'm interested in and one of the things you call it doubleganger..."
In this segment, Seth addresses the ethical implications of data-driven practices, particularly in A/B testing. He acknowledges the potential for manipulation but also recognizes the value of using data to understand user behavior and preferences, advocating for responsible data usage in tech.
"your site whatever metric you're interested in and I think Google was one of the first ones that really used this and you know initially they're doing a few experiments and they realized you know we c..."
Seth explores the concept of doppelganger searches in data analysis, particularly in the medical field. He discusses how understanding similarities between individuals can lead to better treatment outcomes and emphasizes the potential of data to revolutionize personalized medicine.
"experiments CU it's very easy to get a group of a thousand people in you know for a treatment control group to do an experiment and another advantage of scale is they can find someone just like you wh..."
In this segment, Seth discusses the challenges of accessing comprehensive health data and the potential breakthroughs that could arise from analyzing large datasets. He emphasizes the importance of avoiding overfitting in data analysis and the need for careful interpretation of results.
"individuals this this composition of the meds works best Etc I have a um uh a relative who like you highly degreed he's also got an MD but he's got I think he's got a PhD in data science as well and t..."
Seth shares insights on how data from various sources can lead to significant advancements in health research. He discusses the frustrations of fragmented data and the potential for curing diseases if comprehensive datasets were accessible to researchers.
"better do you see those kinds of things getting unlocked across various disciplines and industries for sure but you have to be careful I don't want to get too technical but obviously overfitting is a ..."
Seth addresses the ethical dilemmas surrounding the use of personal health data by companies. He argues for the necessity of using data to improve health outcomes while acknowledging the concerns about privacy and the potential misuse of information.
"huge frustrations in health is just the data is all over the place there's so much data but you know it it seems clear that you could cure all kinds of diseases at this point uh if someone just had ac..."
In this segment, Seth discusses the cultural lag in adopting new data analysis tools and the need to shift perceptions about the ethical use of data. He argues that analyzing search data could lead to life-saving insights and emphasizes the importance of transparency in data usage.
"enormous data set to find that yeah and um the obviously the quality of the data as you point out and the availability of the data are critical um and one of the reasons why uh I've invested in a lot ..."
Seth highlights the significance of early detection in diseases like pancreatic cancer, discussing how search data can reveal patterns that are not yet recognized by the medical community. He stresses the potential benefits of using this data for early diagnosis.
"I there's this example I talk about everybody lies my first book it was all about all the things we could learned people about people from search data and there's this study where they followed people..."
Seth examines the darker aspects of search data, including the prevalence of racism and other societal issues that emerge from anonymous searches. He discusses the implications of these findings and the need for awareness of the underlying societal problems.
"by the medical community nobody has data sets that big you know with the time series of symptoms and I it's it's kind of like but you know so Microsoft did this study but I don't think Google's done a..."
In this segment, Seth argues for the ethical use of data to address pressing social issues, such as racism and mental health crises. He advocates for leveraging data insights to create early warning systems that could potentially save lives.
"the biggest things is just you know changing the idea of what's ethical and what's not ethical you know and I think there is a a bit of a paranoia I I feel around some of these issues you know why why..."
Seth discusses the cultural resistance to using data for social good and the need for a shift in mindset. He emphasizes the potential benefits of analyzing data to improve public health and address societal issues.
"want to analyze and understand some of this data yeah I I think a a big factor here is cultural leg in other words the time it takes a culture to change and adopt some of the new tools that it it can ..."
Seth reflects on the future of data analysis in health and society, discussing the potential for new tools to revolutionize our understanding of health issues. He emphasizes the importance of ethical considerations while advocating for the positive impact of data-driven insights.
"regulations in other areas but it just does I I sure that there are diseases that could be cured and that and there are you know L many many lives that could be saved sa with existing data that we sho..."
Seth Stephens-Davidowitz discusses how social media can distort perceptions of reality, particularly among teenagers. He highlights the disparity between the idealized lives portrayed online and the actual struggles people face, emphasizing the importance of understanding the full picture through data, such as Google searches, which reveal deeper societal issues like depression and racism.
"example of the difference you know based on the incentives you give people what kind of data you get and also the difference in uh you know you what's really going on I think a lot of depression these..."
In this segment, Seth reveals the shocking contrast between survey responses about racism and the explicit racist searches people make on Google. He discusses how this data can uncover uncomfortable truths about societal attitudes and the implications for African-American communities, including health outcomes and police interactions.
"picture definitely in people's Google searches uh I have long said social media is the ultimate poent good Village yeah yeah I definitely agree with that other you know sometimes there's a Darkness to..."
Seth explores the ethical considerations of using data to address societal issues like racism and teen suicide. He advocates for the development of early warning systems that could leverage data to identify and mitigate these dark trends, while also acknowledging the sensitivity required in handling such information.
"dangerous too you know can lead to riots and uh Wars and all kinds of problems yeah and uh should not be ignored um and it brings us back to that point right like I I I agree with you on the sensitivi..."
Seth discusses the utility of Google Trends data as a public service and its potential for research. He cites examples of how researchers have used this data to predict health outbreaks, emphasizing the vast possibilities for societal improvement through the analysis of large data sets.
"available to people right and and potentially it changes their mind yeah I I think it was a public so a lot of the data I analyze and everybody lies is Google Treads data and they make all this Anonym..."
In this segment, Seth contrasts the insights gained from large data sets with those from smaller samples. He illustrates how small data can lead to misleading conclusions, using the example of hospital birth rates to highlight the importance of larger samples for accurate pattern recognition.
"ways the other thing that we've touched on uh throughout our conversation but we haven't explicitly called out and and that is the the seeming preference of many people for small data sets where they ..."
Seth explains the significance of analyzing large data sets by slicing and dicing them to uncover unique patterns. He emphasizes that certain health patterns, such as those affecting specific demographics, can only be identified through extensive data analysis, which small sample sizes cannot provide.
"for doing these kinds of research studies and and learning so many new things that that people should consider yeah I think a lot of it is slicing and dicing the data set so you know you the example o..."
Seth shares his experience of writing 'Who Makes the NBA' in a month and reflects on his obsessive nature when working on projects. He discusses the balance between his writing ambitions and personal life, hinting at future projects while acknowledging the challenges of deep focus.
"yeah I agree are you working on a new book right now uh not I don't know I maybe I'm going to the same Parts trip and if I get inspired I might start one I kind of initially when I wrote who makes the..."
In a thought-provoking exercise, Seth imagines being the emperor of the world and shares two ideas he would implant in people's minds. He emphasizes the importance of recording personal data to improve life decisions and encourages people to engage in activities that genuinely make them happy.
"have a whole bunch of ideas cooking I definitely hear you on that obsessive uh pull um I very much like you in in that respect I guess we could say uh gotta always make [ __ ] for infinite books maybe..."
Seth discusses the research on happiness and the importance of engaging in activities that promote well-being. He urges listeners to reflect on their weekly routines and ensure they prioritize actions that lead to happiness, drawing from historical human behaviors that foster joy.
"to incept in the world's population wait so are they just going to hear the idea decide whether to act or they're going to hear the idea just they're going to think they came up with the idea th Incep..."
Seth concludes by discussing the transformative potential of big data and AI, while also cautioning against its misuse. He highlights the need for awareness of the darker aspects of data usage, advocating for a balanced perspective on the benefits and risks associated with big data.
"next week I would say I love both of those uh data uh can definitely set you free if you use it the right way and ask the right questions it can also enslave you as we talked about uh when when people..."