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Steve Hsu - Intelligence, Embryo Selection, & The Future of Humanity
82 segments available
Steve Hsu is a Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University, and one of the founders of the company Genomic Prediction. We go deep into the weeds on how embryo selection can make babies healthier and smarter. Steve also explains the advice Richard Feynman gave him to pick up girls, the genetics of aging and intelligence, and the psychometric differences between shape rotators and wordcels. Read Transcript: https://www.dwarkeshpatel.com/p/steve-hsu Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/3wob9AK Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3PCNK5m Steve Hsu's Blog: infoproc.blogspot.com Follow Steve: https://twitter.com/hsu_steve Follow me: https://twitter.com/dwarkesh_sp TIMESTAMPS 0:00:00 Intro 0:00:49 Feynman’s advice on picking up women 0:12:21 Embryo selection 0:24:54 Why hasn't natural selection already optimized humans? 0:34:48 Aging 0:43:53 First Mover Advantage 0:53:50 Genomics in dating 1:00:32 Ancestral populations 1:07:59 Is this eugenics? 1:16:00 Tradeoffs to intelligence 1:25:02 Consumer preferences 1:30:15 Gwern 1:34:36 Will parents matter? 1:45:26 Word cells and shape rotators 1:57:27 Bezos and brilliant physicists 2:10:24 Elite education
Segments Timeline
Meeting Richard Feynman
Steve Hsu shares a memorable encounter with the legendary physicist Richard Feynman during his senior year at Caltech. He recounts how Feynman, intrigued by gym culture, offered humorous yet insightful advice on social interactions and confidence, emphasizing the importance of rationality in approaching women.
"the the big future AI in the the singularity looks back and says, "Hey, who gets the most credit for this genomics revolution that happened in the early 21st century?" That AI is going to find these p..."
Feynman's Unconventional Advice
Steve Hsu shares a humorous and insightful story about the advice he received from the legendary physicist Richard Feynman on how to approach dating. Feynman's perspective, shaped by his unique background and era, emphasizes the importance of confidence and rationality in social interactions, particularly in the context of meeting women.
"the the big future AI in the the singularity looks back and says, "Hey, who gets the most credit for this genomics revolution that happened in the early 21st century?" That AI is going to find these p..."
Embryo Selection Explained
In this segment, Steve Hsu delves into the concept of embryo selection, discussing its implications for health and intelligence in future generations. He explains how advancements in genomics can help parents make informed choices about their embryos, potentially leading to healthier and smarter offspring.
"That means a lot for me to hear hear you say because I'm a big fan of your podcast. My first question is, what advice did Richard Fineman give you about picking up girls? Wow. Um, so one day in the sp..."
Feynman's Dating Advice
In this segment, Steve Hsu elaborates on the dating advice he received from Richard Feynman. Feynman emphasized that dating is a numbers game, encouraging Steve to be rational and not take rejection personally. He also highlighted the importance of confidence and humor in social interactions, providing a unique perspective on dating from a physicist's viewpoint.
"That means a lot for me to hear hear you say because I'm a big fan of your podcast. My first question is, what advice did Richard Fineman give you about picking up girls? Wow. Um, so one day in the sp..."
Natural Selection and Human Optimization
Steve Hsu explores the question of why natural selection has not already optimized human beings. He discusses the complexities of evolution and the factors that influence genetic traits, providing insights into the interplay between genetics and environmental pressures.
"let's talk about your, uh, company, Genomic Prediction. Uh, yeah. Yeah. Do you want to talk about what this company does? Do you want to give an intro into what this is? Yeah. So, if you don't mind, w..."
Cultural Shifts in Dating
Steve Hsu reflects on the cultural differences in dating practices between his generation and today’s youth. He discusses the challenges of approaching women in social settings, contrasting it with modern dating methods like swiping on apps. This segment provides insight into how societal norms around dating have evolved over the decades.
"that's interesting because I wonder when he when I mean in the 40s when he was at that age, was he doing this? I don't know what the cultural conventions were at the time, but I don't know during the ..."
Introduction to Genomic Prediction
Steve Hsu introduces his company, Genomic Prediction, explaining its role in the IVF process. He outlines how genomic data can help families make informed decisions about embryo selection, emphasizing the scientific and practical implications of this technology in improving health outcomes for future generations.
"thing. Of course, the Romans and the Greeks had it to some degree, but it was kind of lost for a long time and it was just coming back in the US when I was growing up. And so, yeah, if you if you were..."
Understanding Aging
In this segment, Hsu discusses the genetics of aging, examining how our understanding of DNA and genomics can shed light on the aging process. He highlights the potential for scientific advancements to influence longevity and health in aging populations.
"that was that was super fascinating and I I commented on that about that on Twitter. Uh, What what is really interesting about that is um I guess two things. One is you have this really interesting ev..."
First Mover Advantage in Genomics
Steve Hsu explains the concept of 'first mover advantage' in the context of genomic technologies. He discusses how early adopters of genomic prediction technologies can gain significant benefits in health and intelligence, shaping the future landscape of human development.
"interesting because I remember reading in the selfish gene that like he hypothesizes um the reason we have aging or one of the possible reasons we have aging is that um there's antagonistic philosophy..."
Genomic Prediction in Embryo Selection
Steve Hsu discusses the practical applications of genomic prediction in embryo selection, explaining how genotyping embryos can reveal risks for diseases like breast cancer and cardiovascular issues. He highlights the collaboration with IVF clinics worldwide and the significance of polygenic risk factors in determining health outcomes.
"the science that I described is well we can now genotype those embryos from a small biopsy and I can tell you things about the embryos. I could tell you hey number four is an outlier for breast cancer..."
The Role of Theoretical Physics in Genomics
Hsu elaborates on how his background in theoretical physics and mathematics has enabled him to navigate the complexities of genomic data. He emphasizes the importance of understanding algorithms and the mathematical foundations that underpin genomic predictions, particularly in the context of high-dimensional data.
"individual snips or polymorphisms, those are individual locations in the genome where I might differ from you and you might differ from another person. And typically, if you just take pairs of individ..."
Genomics and Dating
In this thought-provoking segment, Hsu discusses the intersection of genomics and dating, exploring how genetic information could influence romantic relationships and mate selection. He raises questions about the ethical implications of using genomic data in personal relationships.
"that's super interesting um what is uh so you mentioned that you're accumulating um data and improving your techniques over time is there a first mover advantage to you know a genomic prediction compa..."
Machine Learning and Genomic Data
In this segment, Hsu explains the machine learning challenges associated with genomic data, including the need for effective algorithms to predict traits based on genetic information. He discusses the significance of compressed sensing and how it applies to building predictive models in genomics.
"that I had to confront about 10 years ago was I knew the rate at which sequencing costs were going down. So I could anticipate we would get to the day today when there are millions of genomes with phe..."
Ancestral Populations and Genetics
Steve Hsu dives into the topic of ancestral populations, discussing how understanding genetic heritage can inform current genomic practices. He emphasizes the importance of recognizing genetic diversity and its implications for health and disease.
"let's say in 50 years or 100 years all the majority population is doing this and if that means that the diseases that are highly heritable get um pruned out of the population. Does that mean we'll onl..."
The Transition to High-Performance Predictors
Hsu shares insights into the evolution of genomic predictors, detailing how advancements in data availability have led to significant improvements in predictive accuracy. He reflects on the phase transition in performance and the implications of his research for understanding human traits.
"And it turns out for some subset of algorithms that algorithms there are theorems there they're actually performance guarantees that tell you they give you a bound on how much data you need to capture..."
Is This Eugenics?
In a critical discussion, Hsu addresses the controversial topic of eugenics in relation to modern genomic technologies. He examines the ethical considerations and societal implications of selecting for certain genetic traits in future generations.
"actually raises the next question I was about to ask which was uh how applicable are these scores across uh you know different ancestral populations. Huge huge problem right now because most of the da..."
Tradeoffs in Intelligence
Hsu discusses the tradeoffs associated with enhancing intelligence through genetic selection. He explores the complexities of intelligence as a trait and the potential consequences of prioritizing certain cognitive abilities over others.
"main outcry will be if it turns out that there are really big gains to be had and only the billionaires are getting them. But but that might have the consequence of causing countries to make this a fr..."
Simplicity in Genetic Predictors
Hsu discusses the surprising simplicity of genetic predictors, emphasizing that despite the complexity of genetic interactions, the ultimate models often remain additive. He contrasts this with earlier assumptions about nonlinear interactions in genetics and highlights the implications for understanding human differences.
"some of these technical details are really just not understood even by practitioners in computational genomics who are not quite that mathematical. They don't understand actually these results that in..."
Consumer Preferences in Genomics
In this segment, Hsu examines how consumer preferences are shaping the field of genomics. He discusses the demand for genetic testing and selection, and how market forces are influencing the development of genomic technologies.
"with intelligence? I mean, uh with certain populations, oh, of course, by the way, disclaimer, 5,000 years is not enough, blah blah blah. Um but given that uh obviously obviously obviously um but give..."
Additive Genetic Architecture
In this segment, Hsu delves into the concept of additive genetic architecture, explaining how individual genetic variants contribute to traits. He discusses the evolutionary significance of this architecture and its implications for predicting health outcomes and human traits.
"particular region in the genome or I don't and then I need to know what is the waiting but then the the function is a linear function of it's an additive function of the state of your genome at some s..."
Evolutionary Constraints on Human Optimization
Hsu addresses the question of why humans have not been fully optimized through evolution. He explores the limitations of evolutionary time and the changing environments that influence human traits, arguing that optimization is a complex process influenced by various factors.
"subtlety into it in it but the the main point which you made which is that the ultimate predictors which are very simple and additive just sums over effect sizes times states actually works really wel..."
The Influence of Gwern
Steve Hsu reflects on the contributions of Gwern, a notable figure in the field of genetics and intelligence. He discusses Gwern's insights and how they relate to the broader conversation about genomics and human potential.
"really detailed uh post about embryo selection and um he he he writes in it uh my belief is that the total uptake will be fairly modest as a fraction of the population and he's talking about embryo se..."
Will Parents Matter?
Hsu poses a provocative question about the role of parents in the future of human development. He explores how advancements in genomics may shift the influence of parental genetics on offspring, raising questions about the nature of parenting.
"for a long time, but obviously like his his persona is very mysterious. Um, I don't know if you have like something obviously nothing that isn't already public, but like what is going on here? Like ho..."
The Impact of Lifespan on Disease Evolution
Hsu discusses how the evolutionary pressures on human lifespan have shaped the prevalence of diseases. He explains that many common diseases manifest later in life, which has implications for how evolution has optimized human traits over time.
"So, okay. So, the first issue which is how why you know why is this why is this genetic architecture so simple surprisingly simple and again 10 years ago we didn't know it was going to be simple. So w..."
Genetic Modularity and Disease Independence
In this segment, Hsu explores the modular nature of genetics, discussing how different traits can be governed by independent genetic factors. He uses analogies from programming to illustrate how genetic switches operate, emphasizing the complexity and independence of various traits.
"So it was well known for you know at least among a tiny population of theoretical population bi biologists that that additive variance was the dominant way that uh populations would respond to selecti..."
Word Cells vs. Shape Rotators
In this engaging discussion, Hsu contrasts two cognitive styles: 'word cells' and 'shape rotators.' He explains the implications of these differences for understanding intelligence and how they may relate to genetic predispositions.
"gains will be greater in any given trait? You could think about for parents who are already high in that trait or for parents who are um lower in that trait compared to the average of the population. ..."
Bezos and Brilliant Physicists
Hsu shares insights on the relationship between successful entrepreneurs like Jeff Bezos and the role of brilliant physicists in shaping technological advancements. He discusses how intelligence and innovation intersect in the modern world.
"had an interesting post on that uh recent uh Twitter viral meme about the word cells and shape rotators about how actually the concept of a shape rotator is combining two separate abilities math and s..."
Information Theory in Genetics
Hsu concludes by discussing the application of information theory to genetics, explaining how the vast amount of genetic variation allows for a multitude of independent traits. He highlights the challenges of communicating these concepts to biologists and the implications for understanding genetic diversity.
"in the last 10,000 years. Like for a while we didn't have agriculture. Now we have agriculture. Now we have swipe left if you want to have sex tonight. You know, we the the environment didn't stay fix..."
The Complexity of Genetic Traits
Steve Hsu discusses the intricate nature of genetic traits and how various diseases are governed by disjoint regions of the genome. He explains that traits like diabetes and schizophrenia have modest overlap in their genetic predictors, challenging traditional views of pleiotropy. Hsu emphasizes the vast potential for independent genetic variation, likening it to a multi-dimensional space where numerous traits can vary independently.
"on in uh the genome. So when we looked at we were the first group to I think we had at for like initially like say 20 major disease conditions we had decent predictors for and we just started looking ..."
The Future of Elite Education
In this concluding segment, Hsu reflects on the future of elite education in light of genomic advancements. He discusses how educational systems may evolve to accommodate the changing landscape of intelligence and genetic selection.
"mentioned um is it potentially the case I mean obviously the common uh criticism of like physics as a community is that they're absorbing too much uh talent you know like three or four standard deviat..."
The Elite School Advantage
Steve Hsu discusses the overrepresentation of graduates from elite schools like Harvard in top jobs. He explores whether this is due to a selection effect based on personality traits or if the environment at these institutions fosters high achievement. Hsu shares personal anecdotes about his curiosity regarding the backgrounds of successful individuals and the networking advantages that come with attending prestigious universities.
"elite schools are over represented. Um, and so I'm I'm curious, do you think this is this is because of a selection effect based on who like Harvard selecting based on personality as well and that you..."
Rethinking Aging and Evolution
In this segment, Hsu critiques Richard Dawkins' theories on aging, suggesting that the trade-offs he describes may not apply universally. He argues that many traits are controlled by thousands of genetic variants, which are often disjoint, leading to the possibility that aging could be better understood through a more complex lens of genetic variation. Hsu highlights the need for a modern understanding of genetics that incorporates recent data.
"interesting because I remember reading in the selfish gene that like he hypothesizes um the reason we have aging or one of the possible reasons we have aging is that um there's antagonistic philosophy..."
The Brain Drain Phenomenon
In this segment, Hsu examines the underrepresentation of countries like China and India in prestigious awards like the Nobel Prize. He highlights the lagging indicators of scientific achievement and discusses the brain drain effect, where top talent from these countries often migrates to the US for better opportunities. Hsu reflects on the changing landscape of education in these countries and the implications for global talent distribution.
"So, what's the difference in their lives? One, somehow maybe the guy went to Harvard because he kind of understands how the world works a little better than the other dude. Okay. Two, when he gets to ..."
Engineering Longevity Through Genetics
Hsu explores the potential for genetic engineering to extend human lifespans significantly. He discusses how polygenic predictors can identify individuals with the best health outcomes and suggests that with advancements in technology, we could engineer humans to live much longer than current averages. He emphasizes the vast genetic variance available for selection and the implications of this for future generations.
"Yeah, I see. Um and uh and then yeah so you had this paper I think um it was polygenic health index general health and disease risk and then you showed that with 10 embryos you could increase uh disab..."
The Future of Genetic Engineering
Steve Hsu outlines the future of genetic engineering, predicting that advancements in CRISPR and gene editing technologies will allow for extensive modifications to human genetics. He discusses the high-dimensional space of genetic traits and the potential for rapid exploration of this space, suggesting that we are on the brink of significant breakthroughs in health and longevity through genetic science.
"early population geneticists who bre who breed corn who breed uh animals they know this. This is actually something they explicitly know about because they've done calculations. Now interestingly the ..."
Talent Competition and Immigration
Steve Hsu addresses the impact of immigration on the job market for native-born Americans, particularly in elite sectors. He discusses the advantages and disadvantages of hiring foreign talent and how it affects competition for jobs. Hsu raises concerns about the long-term implications for native talent pools and the potential discouragement of local students in fields heavily influenced by international competition.
"the explanation? Well the the easy answer to that question is many of the things or almost all the things you mentioned are lagging indicators. So, so they reflect the fact that the west was developed..."
Closing Thoughts and Future Conversations
In the concluding segment, Hsu reflects on the depth of the conversation and expresses interest in future discussions covering topics like his physics work and advanced concepts in quantum mechanics. He shares information about his podcast, 'Manifold,' which features in-depth conversations across various fields, encouraging listeners to explore more of his work and engage with the content.
"American kid to, you know, get the job he deserves, you know, at these elite levels where he's strongly impacted by immigration. Um, so, you know, you got winners and losers. Uh, whether there's a lon..."
First Mover Advantage in Genomic Prediction
In this segment, Hsu discusses the competitive landscape of genomic prediction companies. He highlights the first mover advantage that his company has in establishing relationships with clinics and building trust in the market. Hsu acknowledges the potential for larger companies with more data to disrupt the market but emphasizes the unique expertise and track record his team has developed over the years.
"Like, no, we we're mapping this space out now. pretty confident in 10 years or so the crisper gene editing technologies will be ready for massively multipplexed edits and we're going to start navigati..."
The Role of IVF Clinics in Genetic Testing
Hsu explains the operational aspects of his genomic prediction company, detailing how IVF clinics conduct embryo biopsies and send samples for genetic analysis. He describes the robust nature of DNA and the efficiency of their lab processes, emphasizing the potential for rapid genetic testing and reporting back to parents. This segment highlights the integration of genetic technology into reproductive health.
"insemination, um modeling of the traits using ML. last 10 years has basically for cow breeding now it's totally totally done by ML now I I had no idea that's super interesting um what is uh so you men..."
Navigating Genetic Regulations
In this concluding segment, Hsu addresses the potential regulatory challenges facing genetic technologies. He discusses the implications of being able to upload genetic data from anywhere in the world and the ease of accessing genetic information despite regulatory barriers. Hsu emphasizes the importance of focusing on health-related traits while acknowledging the broader ethical considerations of genetic selection.
"stuff like that, but that this general idea of like who's going to be the best at predicting human traits from DNA, it's unclear who's going to be the winner in that race. Maybe it'll be the Chinese g..."
Predicting Embryo Appearance
Hsu explains the potential of using DNA to predict physical traits, such as facial features, of embryos. He describes how advancements in AI and genetics could allow for accurate predictions of what an embryo will look like at different ages, raising ethical questions about the implications of such technology.
"regulate because it's just bits, right? So, you have the bits and you're in some repressive terrible country, you know, that doesn't allow you to select for some special traits that people are nervous..."
Genetic Surveillance and Privacy
The conversation shifts to the implications of genetic surveillance, particularly in the context of public figures and potential espionage. Hsu discusses how easily DNA can be collected and analyzed, leading to concerns about privacy and the lengths individuals might go to protect their genetic information.
"where I can do the inverse problem where I have your DNA and I predict each of those parameters in the face recognition algorithm and then from that I reconstruct the face. So, I say like this embryo ..."
The Future of DNA and Public Figures
Hsu speculates on how public figures might react to the increasing accessibility of genetic information. He suggests that leaders may become overly cautious about their DNA being collected, leading to extreme measures to protect their genetic identity.
"to old school Gatka, but you don't even need the face. You can just say like I'm going to take a few molecules of, you know, skin cells from you. I'm going to take a few skin cells off of you and just..."
Heritability of Diseases and Genetic Editing
Hsu discusses the potential future where genetic editing could eliminate heritable diseases from the population. He raises questions about the remaining lifestyle diseases and the implications of such advancements on societal health and longevity.
"all over. Yeah. But the thing is um like there's so much as you I'm sure you know there's like speculation that Putin might have cancer or something. If we have his DNA we can just see like oh actuall..."
Optimizing for Genetic Variability
The discussion turns to the concept of optimizing embryos for genetic variability. Hsu explores the idea of selecting embryos based on their genetic potential for intelligence and other traits, suggesting that this could lead to smarter offspring.
"those people live to be 300 years old naturally. I I don't think that's excluded at all. So, um I think that's within the realm of possibility, but you know, it's going to happen for a few lucky, you ..."
Dating Apps and Genetic Matching
Hsu shares insights from conversations with executives from dating app companies about the potential for integrating genetic data into matchmaking algorithms. He discusses how DNA verification could address common issues like height misrepresentation on dating platforms.
"senior people at the company that owns all the dating apps. So, you can look up, you can figure out what company this is, but they own Tinder and Match and stuff like this. And they're kind of interes..."
Genetic Compatibility in Relationships
The segment delves into the idea of genetic compatibility in romantic relationships. Hsu explains how understanding the genetic makeup of partners could lead to better predictions of their children's intelligence and health outcomes.
"actually. But but no, the the the application to what you were discussing is more like let's suppose that we're selecting on intelligence or something and let's suppose that the regions where your gir..."
Height and Environmental Factors
Hsu discusses the heritability of height and the significant impact of environmental factors on growth. He emphasizes that while genetics play a role, nutrition and living conditions greatly influence height outcomes across generations.
"that is unbelievably interesting. Um, and but by the way, speaking of high, this just uh this this just occurred to me, but you know, it's like supposed to be highly heritable, but especially people i..."
Challenges in Genetic Prediction Across Populations
Hsu addresses the challenges of applying genetic predictions across different ancestral populations. He explains how the quality of genetic predictors diminishes when applied to populations that differ from the one they were trained on, highlighting the need for diverse genetic data.
"genes are a cap on what can be achieved and we can estimate you know we can uh predict that. Yeah. So in fact in our data actually we we have like I have data from Asia where yeah you can see um there..."
Causal Mechanisms in Genetics
The conversation explores the complexities of identifying causal mechanisms in genetics. Hsu discusses the importance of understanding how different genetic variants affect traits across populations and the implications for future research in genetics.
"hypothesis. But even so, the tagging quality falls off. So my group, you know, we spend a lot of our time looking at performance of predictor trained in population A on distant population B and doing ..."
Ethical Implications of Genetic Research
Hsu concludes with a discussion on the ethical implications of genetic research and the potential societal consequences of revealing differences in traits among ancestral populations. He emphasizes the need for careful consideration of how this information is communicated and understood.
"Steve how do I know how do I know if I don't know which one is causal how what do you mean by improving the tags this is a machine learning problem so So the question is if there's a snip which when I..."
The Future of IVF and Genetic Selection
In this segment, Hsu explores the future of IVF technology and its implications for genetic selection. He discusses the potential for significant advancements in genetic testing and selection, and how societal reactions may evolve as these technologies become more mainstream. Hsu raises concerns about access and equity, suggesting that countries may either embrace these technologies as part of national healthcare or restrict them altogether.
"but most of them actually don't really follow it at this the technical level that you and I are disc are discussing it. So, they're just like kind of instinctively negative about it, but they don't th..."
Eugenics and Progressivism
Steve Hsu delves into the historical context of eugenics and its shifting perception among progressives. He contrasts early 20th-century progressive views on eugenics with contemporary attitudes, noting how societal values have transformed. Hsu discusses the implications of these changes for modern genetic discussions and the potential for misunderstanding in current debates.
"fun times. There's no doubt about it. Yeah. I I guess one way it could go is some countries decide to ban it all together, and another way it could go is countries decide to give everybody free access..."
Intelligence and Genetic Correlation
Hsu addresses the complex relationship between genetics and intelligence, speculating on the potential for future research to correlate genotype with cognitive abilities. He expresses frustration over the lack of data due to societal fears surrounding intelligence research, emphasizing the importance of understanding cognitive function in medical studies and the challenges posed by contemporary social issues.
"you know I don't want to credit the person but somebody made an interesting comment um they they wouldn't want their name associated with this maybe but somebody made an interesting comment about this..."
The Trade-offs of Intelligence
In this segment, Hsu discusses the potential trade-offs associated with selecting for intelligence, including the possibility of increased incidence of certain disorders. He speculates on the implications of these trade-offs for genetic engineering and the importance of understanding the multifaceted nature of intelligence as a trait influenced by numerous genetic factors.
"um do do we what is the potential that we'll be able to actually acquire the data to be able to um correlate the genotype with intelligence? Well, that that's the most personally frustrating aspect of..."
Data Challenges in Genetic Research
Hsu highlights the challenges faced in genetic research, particularly regarding the collection of cognitive data alongside genomic information. He discusses the potential for predictive models based on genetic data and the importance of overcoming societal fears to advance understanding in this field. Hsu emphasizes the need for comprehensive data to unlock insights into cognitive abilities and their genetic underpinnings.
"of genomic data where there's actually no cognitive measurement attached as a field to that data. Uh, which would have been very cheap to measure. Again, wokeists hate this, but I can measure your IQ ..."
Understanding Educational Attainment
In this segment, Hsu examines the relationship between educational attainment and genetic predictors of intelligence. He discusses the complexities of measuring intelligence through educational success and the potential confounding factors that may influence these outcomes. Hsu advocates for a clearer understanding of the distinctions between educational attainment and cognitive ability in genetic research.
"like average differences or anything just how the genotype is tagged. Uh and if the Chinese do this first then that's like an adv they have an advantage that can't be transferred over I guess right? u..."
The Future of Genetic Engineering
Hsu speculates on the future of genetic engineering and the potential for selecting desirable traits. He discusses the importance of understanding the high-dimensional nature of genetics and the ability to navigate trade-offs in trait selection. Hsu emphasizes the need for robust data and advanced modeling techniques to inform genetic engineering practices and the ethical considerations that accompany them.
"Israel is so progressive when it comes to genetic screening and IVF and things like this. Um, one thing people talk a lot about is schizophrenia. So they say like, "Oh, schizophrenia could be correlat..."
The Complexity of Genetic Traits
In this concluding segment, Hsu reflects on the complexity of genetic traits and the challenges of predicting outcomes based on genetic data. He discusses the nuances of various traits, including intelligence and educational attainment, and the importance of understanding their interrelations. Hsu emphasizes the sophistication of current genetic research and the potential for future breakthroughs in understanding human cognition.
"who is the strong I guess these aren't necessarily correlated but like the person who has like the highest mathematical ability will not be the person who has the highest verbal ability even though th..."
The Power of Polygenic Scores
Steve Hsu discusses the predictive capabilities of polygenic scores in determining traits like height and diabetes among siblings raised in the same environment. He highlights the differences in predictive power between genetic traits and educational attainment, emphasizing the sophistication of their research and the misunderstandings from critics.
"don't really understand these polygenic scores and they're very skeptical and they think, oh, we're we're capturing we're not really capturing the real stuff, etc. Well, you know what? I will just loo..."
Critics and the Complexity of Genetics
Hsu addresses the skepticism surrounding genetic research, particularly from critics who fail to grasp the complexity of the work. He contrasts the understanding of those with a physics or AI background with the misconceptions held by critics, emphasizing the depth of their research in genetics.
"when I read your papers, I have a much easier time like the pros part and the explanation in the organization is uh I don't know if it's your physics background or whatever, but I noticed with Scott E..."
Consumer Preferences in Embryo Selection
The conversation shifts to consumer attitudes towards embryo selection technologies. Hsu references Goran's perspective on the modest uptake of these technologies, discussing the financial and emotional barriers that may deter potential users and the implications for the future of embryo selection.
"really detailed uh post about embryo selection and um he he he writes in it uh my belief is that the total uptake will be fairly modest as a fraction of the population and he's talking about embryo se..."
Market Perspectives on IVF
Hsu contrasts two perspectives on the market for embryo selection: the venture capitalist view focused on market size and the ethical concerns regarding human evolution. He discusses the current adoption rates of IVF in developed countries and the potential for growth in this market.
"that that that's for the venture guys, okay? You you you know how to get in touch with me. Um from the oh I'm really worried about human evolution or when are we going to get another vonoyman? That's ..."
The Future of Genetic Diversity
The discussion continues with concerns about genetic diversity in the face of advanced reproductive technologies. Hsu suggests that even with the rise of embryo selection, there will always be a natural reservoir of genetic diversity, alleviating fears of a homogeneous future.
"who are concerned about I have a sense that this whole argument about like uh the oh we're not going to have the evolutionary diversity or whatever that's just a front for just like a moral reservatio..."
The Role of Technology in IVF
Hsu explores the implications of emerging technologies in IVF, particularly the potential to create embryos from induced pluripotent stem cells. He discusses the ethical considerations and the potential for significant advancements in embryo selection processes.
"So, I'm not sure what he means by that. Like, like I mean, Goran, I I admire him a lot, but what what does he mean by that? It's not very many people are going to adopt it. Does he mean like the perce..."
The Future of Embryo Selection
The conversation wraps up with Hsu speculating on the future of embryo selection technologies and their implications for human evolution. He emphasizes the rapid advancements in genetic editing and the potential for unprecedented control over genetic traits in future generations.
"perspective is is this a big enough market for you to make money in it or is this like going to change the future of the human species? I you know, you can have different perspectives. Yeah. By the wa..."
The Future of Egg Production
Steve Hsu discusses the advancements in egg production using induced pluripotency, suggesting that creating human eggs from skin cells is feasible. He highlights the potential for gay couples to use this technology for embryo selection, while also addressing public concerns about the safety and risks of using untested methods for egg production.
"pluropotency to make the eggs. Um and so my guess would be to get it working in humans is not that hard. It's a matter of some years of just slaving away in the lab to get it working. And I know of st..."
Iterated Embryo Selection Explained
In this segment, Hsu explains the concept of iterated embryo selection, where multiple embryos are created and evaluated before deciding which to implant. He emphasizes the plausibility of this method and its potential implications for reproductive technology and genetic selection.
"mean, eventually there's no technical barrier. Now I would say that on roughly the same time scale for the pleur potent production of eggs to get mature to be tested so that people are confident in it..."
Progressive Goals in Genetic Technology
Steve Hsu addresses the ethical concerns surrounding genetic technology, arguing that the goals of creating healthier and longer-living individuals align with progressive values. He challenges critics to consider the benefits of such advancements and the importance of addressing societal inequalities through genetic resources.
"see. I'm hoping it's ready by the time I'm ready to have kids, which is still a while away. So, another possibility that Gwen discusses is iterated embryo selection where you just you can keep I'll le..."
Concerns About Genetic Inequality
Hsu acknowledges the potential for genetic technology to exacerbate social inequalities, discussing the risks of a society divided by genetic advantages. He emphasizes the need for societal structures to ensure equitable access to genetic advancements and resources for all families.
"ultimate goal of what you want? I mean, just think about it. Yeah. Yeah. To steal I guess to steal I guess to steal manand them a little bit. Somebody might say, "Listen, one of the things that preven..."
Government Intervention in Genetic Resources
In this segment, Hsu explores the idea of government intervention in providing genetic resources to underprivileged families. He suggests that a more egalitarian approach could help mitigate the risks of genetic inequality and ensure that advancements benefit all segments of society.
"have to. Actually, maybe this might not be globally beneficial, but for at least this particular debate, it might be beneficial if the case was uh when I asked you like, oh, do people who are lower on..."
Psychometric Differences: Shape Rotators vs. Word Cells
Steve Hsu delves into the psychometric differences between 'shape rotators' and 'word cells,' discussing how these cognitive styles impact problem-solving and learning. He reflects on his experiences in theoretical physics and how different thinkers approach challenges in unique ways.
"give more genomic prediction sources to people who who need them. It's easy. Uh, okay. So, in your uh just to shift topics quite a bit here. Um, in your you had an interesting post on that uh recent u..."
The Importance of Spatial Ability in Education
Hsu shares insights from his educational experiences, emphasizing the significance of spatial ability in practical tasks. He contrasts the skills of students in shop class, illustrating how spatial visualization plays a crucial role in hands-on learning and problem-solving.
"know really trying to get get into that. Um, one of the things that fascinated me when I was being educated and going through training as like uh in theoretical physics and math is like looking at how..."
Visual Thinking in Physics and Programming
In this segment, Hsu discusses the prevalence of visual thinking among physicists and its relevance to programming. He reflects on how different cognitive styles influence the way individuals approach complex problems in both fields.
"look. So in the real economy of atoms and grams of steel, kilograms of steel, which has all moved to China now or something, that all this stuff is super important. Like you can't just like theorize a..."
Transitioning from Physics to Finance
Steve Hsu explains the connection between physics and finance, particularly in derivatives trading. He discusses how the mathematical principles of physics apply to financial models and the evolving landscape of quant funds, highlighting the increasing importance of machine learning.
"particular discipline, which do you think is the more pertinent skill? I was going to say people are going to do it different ways. Yeah, I do think that if you compare the category of engineers to th..."
Dealing with Noisy Data in Physics
Hsu elaborates on the unique skills physicists develop in handling noisy data from experiments. He contrasts this experience with that of mathematicians and computer scientists, emphasizing the importance of practical problem-solving in understanding complex systems.
"hire physics students. Uh the answer is a little bit complicated. I I think all the factors you mentioned are true. But uh one of the things was that uh in the early phase like in the 80s and 90s when..."
The Unique Skill Set of Physicists
Steve Hsu discusses the unique analytical skills that physicists possess, particularly in dealing with noisy data and connecting it to theoretical models. He contrasts this with the approaches of mathematicians and social scientists, emphasizing the importance of confronting reality in experimental physics and the necessity of rigorous analysis in both physics and computer science.
"noisy like you're measuring muon cosmic rays coming through the roof and hitting your detector and then you have to analyze the data and when you're building this thing you you screw it up and so like..."
Intelligence Beyond Physics: The Bezos Example
In this segment, Hsu reflects on the career paths of physicists like Jeff Bezos, who transitioned from physics to other fields. He explores the idea that while physicists possess high analytical skills, their success in other domains often depends on a combination of hard work, creativity, and the ability to communicate effectively across different contexts. Hsu argues against a unidimensional measure of intelligence, highlighting the multifaceted nature of cognitive abilities.
"know I had another experience of this which was uh I I recently interviewed Sam Mcenfrieded who's the CEO of FTX on my podcast and one interesting like I for that interview and I guess generally for a..."
Global Talent Disparities
In this segment, Hsu examines the underrepresentation of countries like China and India in prestigious awards like the Nobel Prize, despite their vast talent pool. He reflects on the lagging indicators of scientific achievement and the brain drain phenomenon, where top students from these countries often migrate to the US for better opportunities, impacting the quality of research produced domestically.
"So, what's the difference in their lives? One, somehow maybe the guy went to Harvard because he kind of understands how the world works a little better than the other dude. Okay. Two, when he gets to ..."
The Brain Drain Effect
Steve Hsu elaborates on the implications of talent migration, particularly how the US benefits from attracting top researchers while developing countries suffer from a loss of their brightest minds. He discusses the competitive landscape for native-born Americans in elite positions and the potential long-term effects of this dynamic on the domestic talent pool.
"the explanation? Well the the easy answer to that question is many of the things or almost all the things you mentioned are lagging indicators. So, so they reflect the fact that the west was developed..."
Tech Talent and Market Dynamics
Hsu analyzes the tech industry's response to foreign talent influx, noting that while software development remains competitive, traditional engineering fields may experience salary suppression due to global competition. He highlights the unique demand for tech talent and how it contrasts with other sectors, providing insights into the broader implications for the job market.
"over the world. So much harder for an American kid to, you know, get the job he deserves, you know, at these elite levels where he's strongly impacted by immigration. Um, so, you know, you got winners..."
Closing Thoughts and Future Conversations
In the conclusion of the discussion, Hsu expresses his appreciation for the conversation and suggests future topics, including his work in physics and quantum computing. He invites listeners to explore his podcast, 'Manifold,' which features in-depth discussions across various fields, emphasizing the importance of high-quality dialogue in understanding complex subjects.
"elasticity. Awesome. Okay, Steve, this was so much fun. This uh I I really really enjoyed this conversation and in preparing for it and in talking to you, I like really got to learn a lot more about t..."