
54 segments available
Josh Wolfe is the co-founder of Lux Capital, a $1.5 billion venture capital firm formed to support scientists and entrepreneurs who pursue counter-conventional solutions to the most vexing puzzles of our time. Josh’s innovative thought process across his activities offers frameworks and insights applicable across the spectrum of investing. Our conversation covers Josh’s early passion for science and finance, building a competitive advantage in venture capital from scratch, sourcing ideas, conducting due diligence, making investment decisions, constructing portfolios, making exits, learning from mistakes, navigating a challenging private equity environment, posting on Twitter, active vs. passive management, dinner table conversation, and life lessons. Subscribe to the mailing list: https://capitalallocators.com/ Access Transcript with Premium Membership: https://capitalallocators.com/signup/ Subscribe on Apple Podcast: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast... Follow Ted on Twitter: https://twitter.com/tseides Follow Ted on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/tedseides/ Original publish date: 8/20/2018
Ted Seides introduces the Capital Allocators podcast, emphasizing its focus on exploring the people and processes behind capital allocation. He sets the stage for a conversation with Josh Wolfe, co-founder of Lux Capital, highlighting the firm's mission to support innovative solutions to complex problems.
"[Music] hello I'm Ted sides and this is capital allocators this show is an open exploration of the people and process behind Capital allocation through conversations with leaders in the money game we ..."
Josh Wolfe, co-founder of Lux Capital, shares his background and the firm's focus on cutting-edge solutions. He is recognized for his innovative thinking and contributions to various prestigious institutions, setting the tone for a deep dive into his investment philosophy and experiences.
"[Music] my guest on today's show is Josh Wolf the co-founder of Lux capital a billion and a half dollar Venture Capital firm that targets cutting-edge solutions to the most vexing puzzles of our time ..."
Josh reflects on his upbringing in Coney Island, Brooklyn, and how it shaped his perspective on life and investing. He discusses the diverse environment of the boardwalk and the lessons learned from observing the hustle and schemes of various individuals, which fostered a healthy skepticism in him.
"passion for Science and finance building a competitive advantage in venture capital from scratch the full-blown investment process at Lux including sourcing ideas conducting due diligence making inves..."
Wolfe recounts formative experiences, including being mugged and learning about trust and skepticism. He emphasizes the importance of developing a thick skin and a critical mindset, which are essential skills in the investment world where distinguishing between genuine innovation and fraud is crucial.
"please enjoy this wide-ranging conversation with Josh Wolf Josh great to see you great to see you Ted look I always love starting with so much background and I know yours is as interesting as anyone s..."
Josh discusses the impact of his mother's encouragement as a school teacher and his early interests in science and finance. He shares how a pivotal moment in high school sparked his desire to make a significant impact, particularly in the field of science, leading him to pursue opportunities in research.
"basically sculpt you into a somewhat cynical squinty-eyed distrustful person of you know somebody trying to scheme over you which I think in my business where you never really know if somebody is goin..."
Wolfe describes his introduction to capital markets while working in a lab during his teenage years. He became fascinated by the intersection of science and finance, leading to a passion for investing and a desire to understand how markets operate, ultimately shaping his career path.
"but they're taking the easy way out and so you have this amalgam of ethics and morality and ambition and it just makes for this awesome hodgepodge but if you get mugged at an early age or you get conn..."
Josh reflects on the excitement of venture capital during the late 90s tech boom. He discusses how witnessing young millionaires at Cornell inspired him to explore the potential of investing in innovative technologies and the thrill of supporting undiscovered talent.
"started it's all started at Coney Island and what was your like early form of Education like Mom a school teacher uh school teacher should push me to be a nerd you know I love playing basketball I lov..."
Wolfe shares his investment philosophy, emphasizing the importance of seeking opportunities where others are not looking. He discusses the value of intellectual curiosity and the need to identify unique insights that can lead to successful investments.
"uh you know I was probably 13 years old there's no way that they're gonna let some 13 year old work in a lab and I just want to take no for an answer this guy Dominic Goss he was a PhD scientist he to..."
Josh draws inspiration from various investment styles and philosophies, including those of renowned investors like Warren Buffett and early venture capitalists. He highlights the importance of understanding risk and value creation in the context of both public and private markets.
"see all these people particularly you know there are a few people at Cornell that started I think was called theglobe.com and all of a sudden there were these young millionaires on campus you know tha..."
Wolfe candidly discusses the role of luck and randomness in his career trajectory. He reflects on how chance encounters and opportunities shaped his path, leading to the founding of Lux Capital and the focus on neglected areas of investment.
"it starts with I think looking where other people are not looking so if you are looking where everybody is looking as Buffett has said very famously you pay a high price virtuary consensus so that mea..."
Josh recounts the early days of Lux Capital, including the challenges of raising funds and establishing credibility in a competitive landscape. He shares insights on the questions that guided their strategy and the importance of differentiating themselves from established firms.
"you know mobile stuff that I think has very little relevance but like real hard technology it's provable it's real it's verifiable it's not you know the things that are sort of prone to fraud so you o..."
Wolfe discusses the critical questions that helped define Lux Capital's competitive edge. He emphasizes the need to articulate their unique value proposition to both entrepreneurs and limited partners, focusing on how they could stand out in a crowded venture capital market.
"the parachute he looks for he looks for the best in people he looks for the best in outcomes of our companies I on the downstroke I'm thinking okay what could go wrong let's kill all the things that c..."
Josh explains how Lux Capital sought to influence public policy to benefit their investments. He shares the importance of understanding legislative processes and how they aimed to secure funding for the sectors they were investing in, showcasing their proactive approach.
"it's good that one of them have both and your friends have or family have money we had a lot of friends we had a lot of family none of them had any money and we got very lucky and threw a guy that I k..."
Josh Wolfe discusses the critical question of establishing a competitive edge in venture capital. He reflects on the challenges Lux Capital faced in persuading entrepreneurs to accept their funding despite being an unknown entity. Wolfe emphasizes the importance of demonstrating tangible value to attract both investors and entrepreneurs, highlighting the necessity of building relationships and credibility in a competitive landscape.
"will be your Competitive Edge what's going to be your really durable Advantage competitively when you're looking at these amazing people at Sequoia and Benchmark and axel and Kleiner why would an LP p..."
In this segment, Josh Wolfe shares his early experiences with public policy and how Lux Capital sought to influence funding flows in their investment spaces. He recounts his naivety and the serendipitous connections that led to forming public policy groups, which ultimately provided Lux with access to key decision-makers and resources. This experience shaped his understanding of the political landscape and its impact on venture capital.
"financing risk for a company that we might invest in was going to be very high right because we had no signaling value like if sequoia or Benchmark is investing in a series a company 10 years ago the ..."
Wolfe explains how Lux Capital utilized media partnerships, particularly with Forbes, to enhance visibility for their portfolio companies. He draws parallels to George Gilder's influence in the late 90s and discusses the importance of social proof in attracting attention and investment. This strategic approach allowed Lux to build credibility and attract entrepreneurs seeking exposure.
"who happened to work in the Clinton Administration he had seen me give a talk about nanotech and Advanced Materials he saw in his own self-interest There's an opportunity here to form some in public p..."
Josh Wolfe elaborates on the establishment of Lux Research, a spin-off that provided valuable insights and reduced uncertainty for clients. He discusses the importance of intellectual property and how Lux Research became a significant player in the market, helping to identify trends and opportunities in technology. This initiative was crucial in solidifying Lux's reputation as a thought leader in venture capital.
"a partnership with Forbes which was a great brand we were able to have a megaphone we had a soapbox and always fully disclosed which was one of Bill Conway's great admonitions is 10 years to build a r..."
In this reflective segment, Wolfe contemplates the randomness involved in building Lux Capital and the serendipitous events that shaped their journey. He emphasizes that while it may appear linear in hindsight, the reality is filled with unpredictability and chance encounters that led to significant opportunities. This perspective highlights the importance of adaptability and seizing opportunities as they arise.
"most importantly we can get you access to all the key decision makers who are going to be customers Partners investors acquirers licensers and that became real and that was really the foundational thi..."
Wolfe discusses the early fundraising efforts for Lux Capital and the challenges they faced in securing initial investments. He shares insights into their first fund and the importance of building relationships with influential investors. This segment illustrates the strategic decisions made during the early days of Lux and how they laid the groundwork for future success.
"companies to invest in exactly we're in the sequences okay we now have some proposition that allow us to go raise money or did you just try to raise money and then build this as you went on putting ou..."
In this segment, Josh Wolfe outlines how Lux Capital's investment strategies evolved over time. He reflects on the initial deal flow and how they became more sophisticated in sourcing ideas. Wolfe emphasizes the importance of pattern recognition and thesis-driven investing, sharing examples of successful investments that stemmed from identifying unique opportunities in emerging technologies.
"of fun one and then was that when did fun one hit that was uh 2003 for time frame or 2004-2005 and then fund two which was really our First Institutional phone was about 11 years ago and that was 100 ..."
Wolfe shares a compelling example of thesis-driven investment in the nuclear energy sector. He discusses how Lux Capital identified opportunities in nuclear technology amidst a focus on cleantech and alternative energy. This segment highlights the importance of recognizing market gaps and the potential for significant returns when investing in underappreciated sectors.
"talking about it and then when you scratched the surface double click in and say okay what is the biggest problem the answer is and I always like to ask this sophisticated two-word question I joke whi..."
In this thought-provoking segment, Josh Wolfe introduces the concept of the 'half-life of technology intimacy.' He explores how human interaction with technology has evolved over the decades and the implications for future innovations. Wolfe's insights into directional arrows of progress provide a framework for understanding technological advancements and their impact on society.
"so that's under development they start they work on pigs because pigs are the biggest proxy for our own skin it'll probably launch internationally first and then come to the US but sometimes you find ..."
Wolfe traces the evolution of computing devices from the massive Eniac computer to modern wearables like the iWatch. He emphasizes how technology is becoming more integrated into our daily lives, moving towards more natural human interactions. This segment underscores the significance of understanding these trends for anticipating future technological advancements.
"particular case the thesis around half-life of Technology intimacy was 50 years ago this is all about the way that we interact with our machines and vice versa 50 years ago you had a giant eniac compu..."
In this segment, Wolfe discusses the future of human-computer interaction, focusing on advancements in voice and gesture recognition technologies. He shares his excitement about a company called Caliope, which is developing technology to detect neural signals for seamless interaction with computers. This exploration of cutting-edge technology illustrates the potential for revolutionary changes in how we communicate with machines.
"as voice assistants you already have gesture in the form of cameras like connect for Microsoft Xbox or leap motion and we felt that the next logical thing would be not visually detecting what you were..."
Wolfe describes a groundbreaking technology that allows users to type by merely thinking about the words, eliminating the need for physical keyboards. He shares his experience with a demo that felt like magic, showcasing the potential of this innovation to transform how we interact with technology. This segment highlights the intersection of neuroscience and technology in creating new user experiences.
"retires then goes and founds another company joins open wave gets sold to phone.com they basically invented the mobile browser and then really retires and now he's wealthy and he's retired and he's in..."
Wolfe emphasizes the critical question of whether a technology actually works during the due diligence process. He reflects on the importance of verifying the functionality of innovations and shares insights on the risks associated with technology investments. This segment serves as a reminder of the necessity for thorough evaluation in venture capital.
"described it felt like magic you're sitting there with these two things on your wrists that are sort of like sweat bands or wristbands that are detecting the nerve signals from your hand and as I thin..."
In this segment, Wolfe outlines the various risks involved in technology investments, including technology, market, product, and people risks. He discusses the importance of understanding these risks and the role of human nature in investment decisions. This analysis provides valuable insights into the complexities of venture capital and the decision-making process.
"yes yes well the two words that you just used are the most important thing it works you know I remember I had a friend at Morgan Stanley who um was making some big large private Investments and he wen..."
Wolfe discusses the significance of having exceptional people in venture capital, emphasizing the need for strong operators and promoters. He explains how great teams can navigate challenges and adapt to failures, highlighting the human element in technology investments. This segment underscores the importance of team dynamics in achieving success in the venture capital landscape.
"recruit it's about psychology it's ultimately about whether the technology Works which is scientifically verifiable but all the other risk you're taking is you know sort of a function of the price tha..."
Wolfe shares insights into the decision-making process within his investment team, explaining how they balance differing opinions and ensure that passionate advocates for ideas are heard. He discusses the structure of their investment decisions and the importance of avoiding groupthink. This segment provides a glimpse into the collaborative nature of venture capital decision-making.
"recruit people just while as in obscurity so it's really about great people now sometimes you have a great inventor but you don't have the great operator or you don't have the great promoter that can ..."
In this segment, Wolfe elaborates on portfolio construction strategies, discussing the balance between seed investments and core positions. He explains the challenges of investing in early-stage companies and the importance of time management in the investment process. This analysis highlights the strategic considerations that venture capitalists must navigate to build successful portfolios.
"entrepreneur and opportunity they get one of those in a fund and the reason that we do that is number one we want to avoid a situation where we made an error of omission that this person accurately sa..."
Wolfe elaborates on the methodology behind portfolio construction in venture capital, highlighting the significance of timing, sector dynamics, and the need for a contrarian approach. He shares insights on how market conditions can influence investment strategies and the importance of anticipating shifts in capital and talent availability.
"when you think about the other layers of portfolio construction other than sort of time and size aside from timing and sizing different sectors at various times can have counter cyclicality you even s..."
In this segment, Josh reflects on significant missed opportunities in his investment career, including a notable case with Cruise Automation. He discusses the balance between process discipline and the outcomes of investment decisions, emphasizing the lessons learned from both successes and failures.
"times when you think about a contrarian stance in the public markets there's a vector of time and sometimes their trades or their longer term strategic plays how do you think about that kind of contra..."
Wolfe shares his perspective on exit strategies in venture capital, explaining how many companies are acquired rather than sold. He discusses the factors that can influence successful exits and the importance of timing and market conditions in maximizing returns.
"many of our companies get bought not sold usually the companies that we are trying to sell are companies that may be struggling maybe they struggle to raise money and we're looking and saying okay how..."
Josh discusses the critical mistakes made in leadership decisions within portfolio companies, particularly the challenge of removing underperforming CEOs. He emphasizes the emotional difficulty of these decisions and the importance of recognizing when leadership is failing.
"a missed opportunity conversely there are companies where we funded a company called Crystal is this was a spin out of Rensselaer they were making UV LEDs and the basic thesis was get rid of mercury t..."
Wolfe analyzes the current state of private equity, noting the influx of capital and the potential for a pullback in allocations. He discusses the bifurcation in the venture capital landscape, highlighting the emergence of small funds and the dominance of large players like SoftBank.
"shouldn't take a step back and think about the private Equity environment you know there's a lot of capital how does that affect how you're going about your business so the way that I'm thinking about..."
In this segment, Josh critiques the influence of SoftBank in the venture capital space, discussing the risks associated with their investment strategies. He warns about the potential pitfalls for companies that become overly reliant on SoftBank's capital and the implications for market dynamics.
"going to amount to something and so they're able to raise 25 50 7 500 million dollars and as a single GP that's a pretty good deal there's hundreds of those people and so we look at that and we say yo..."
Wolfe shares his thoughts on his Twitter strategy, discussing the topics he engages with and the motivations behind his posts. He expresses his concerns about misinformation and the importance of supporting innovative thinkers across various disciplines.
"rounds to give to these later stage guys you also have KKR Apollo Carlisle tpg that are actively doing investments in much earlier stage things in part they're doing it because it's opportunistic to b..."
Wolfe shares his thoughts on his Twitter activity, revealing his disdain for certain figures like Trump and Elon Musk. He explains his motivation to speak out against what he perceives as exploitation of followers and discusses his interest in highlighting innovative thinkers and unconventional ideas.
"yeah you do a lot of interesting tweeting yes do you have a strategy or thought process that leads to what you put on Twitter first of all you're kind uh to euphemistically call it interesting uh look..."
In this segment, Wolfe draws parallels between the behavior of ant colonies and venture capital investing. He explains how ants forage and communicate through pheromones, relating this to how investors seek out opportunities and navigate the market, emphasizing the importance of recognizing patterns in nature.
"specifically as it relates to Tesla as a publicly traded company you don't really see me doing that about SpaceX and the last thing that I really against also which I think is utter BS is IBM Watson a..."
Wolfe discusses a fascinating analogy between neural connections in the brain and the lifecycle of industries. He explains how industries experience exponential growth followed by pruning, mirroring the synaptic pruning that occurs in early childhood development, and highlights its implications for venture capital.
"there's there's interesting analogies I think if you can find interesting analogies I love tweeting about that kind of stuff too I know you recently did one about parallels in biology yes and markets ..."
Wolfe introduces the concept of slime molds as a metaphor for economic behavior. He explains how, in times of abundance, individuals and companies expand and experiment, while scarcity leads to consolidation and a return to traditional roles, drawing parallels to current economic trends.
"same words over and over and over time that sort of becomes you okay well what's the parallel if you look at that chart if you substitute the number of neurons or the synaptic connections between them..."
In this segment, Wolfe shares his heuristic for predicting market downturns based on conversations with peers. He discusses the importance of gauging sentiment and how a shift in collective belief can signal impending market corrections, emphasizing the need for vigilance in investment strategies.
"be able to do in that space second analogy which I talked about was the slime mold and the slime mold is the single cellular organism which in the presence of abundant resources in the environment jus..."
Wolfe provides insight into the dynamic conversations at his dinner table, where he discusses life principles with his children. He emphasizes the importance of learning from mistakes, the balance between fitting in and standing out, and the value of being prepared for unexpected challenges.
"and you saw that by the way in the late 90s or early 2000s with the Regis in the workspace Guys these guys got crushed and so I think the same thing will happen there so then you have this Recon deali..."
Wolfe explains his approach to fostering relationships by creating task lists after meetings. He discusses the dual motivations of intellectual honesty and reciprocity, highlighting how planting ideas in others' minds can lead to future collaborations and opportunities in the venture capital space.
"of my imperfect sample size on a weekly basis when we are I think that's when things turn because it's gonna then there's nothing left in people there's just you have a diversity breakdown to use a pr..."
Josh explains his approach to meetings, where he often leaves with a task list to help others. He discusses the dual motivations behind this practice: fostering reciprocity and planting ideas in others' minds. This segment emphasizes the importance of collaboration and building a network of trust in professional relationships.
"two-legged mammals these humans that we bet on it's you never know you're going to leave here and you're going to have a conversation with somebody else and if I've planted in your mind an idea or a n..."
Josh shares his experience with Coney Island Prep, a non-profit organization aimed at empowering underprivileged youth. He discusses the significance of setting high expectations for students and the impact of mentorship in helping them achieve academic success, highlighting the need for role models in disadvantaged communities.
"fundamentally selfish thing okay yeah I think most people you interact with probably disagree with you on that all right let's turn to some closing questions what was your favorite extracurricular ach..."
In this segment, Josh elaborates on the transformation of students at Coney Island Prep from being labeled as 'kids' to 'Scholars.' He emphasizes the importance of instilling a college-bound mindset and the success of the program in graduating students into higher education, showcasing the potential of youth in underserved areas.
"you know I I would say growing up it was the Westinghouse you know science stuff but but later and outside of work it was Coney Island prep I mean this was to me sort of taking the best things I learn..."
Josh expresses his pet peeve regarding entrepreneurs who view competition as validating. He advocates for a mindset that sees competition as a challenge to overcome, encouraging a fierce and ethical competitive spirit among entrepreneurs to drive innovation and success.
"producers and I don't mean of music but of content of Science of intellect of writing to be producers in the world I think you could skew the odds because there are enormous number of people in Coney ..."
Josh reflects on the emotional risks he has taken in his life, particularly regarding his relationship with his father. He discusses the importance of honesty and self-reflection in personal development, emphasizing how confronting past challenges can lead to growth and better relationships.
"people there that did not have the nepotism they don't have the access they don't even have the role models and so I think anybody in the inner city that just is you know has basketball players and Hi..."
In this segment, Josh shares how high expectations set by his mother shaped his drive for success. He discusses the impact of these expectations on his personal and professional life, and how they translate into the culture he fosters at Coney Island Prep, aiming to inspire students to reach their full potential.
"kids in the projects in fifth grade and we stopped calling them kids that first year and we started calling them Scholars and we set expectations for them it's so critical of like you are going to col..."
Josh discusses his voracious reading habits and the anxiety of missing out on information. He highlights the significance of staying informed and synthesizing knowledge from various sources, including academic papers and industry insights, to maintain a competitive edge in his field.
"validating of our Market or something like that I pull my hair out because I don't want you to find competition validating I want you to find it infuriating and that is me you know that's psychoticall..."
In this segment, Josh emphasizes the value of synthesizing information and recognizing patterns over mere consumption of data. He shares how insights can emerge from seemingly unrelated pieces of information, underscoring the importance of critical thinking in decision-making.
"validating what's the riskiest thing you've ever done there's physical risk there's emotional risk you know I mean physically whether it was surfing or snowboarding or rock climbing like there's thing..."
Josh reflects on his past feelings of bitterness towards wealthy individuals and how that shaped his competitive nature. He shares a lesson learned about the importance of appreciating people and building relationships, advocating for a more positive outlook on success and collaboration.
"like that you know I would say probably the biggest emotional risk was related to my growing up and my father and my parents split when I was a very young and the open raw reconciliation with him and ..."
Josh concludes with an invitation to join his mailing list, where he shares curated insights and reflections. He emphasizes the importance of community engagement and staying connected with others in the industry, fostering a culture of sharing knowledge and experiences.
"better of super high expectations it's what we do in our family that you know you can do better no matter what it is that you're doing I think it carries over into our school at Coney Island prep sett..."