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Garett Jones — Immigration, national IQ, & less democracy

Garett Jones — Immigration, national IQ, & less democracy

47 segments available

Garett Jones is an economist at George Mason University and he is the author of The Cultural Transplant, Hive Mind, and 10% Less Democracy. This episode was fun and interesting throughout! He explains: * How migrants bring their values to their new countries, * Why national IQ matters, * How the Chinese people are an unstoppable global force for free markets, * Why we should have less democracy 𝐄𝐏𝐈𝐒𝐎𝐃𝐄 𝐋𝐈𝐍𝐊𝐒 * Transcript: https://www.dwarkeshpatel.com/p/garett-jones * Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3j3av8m * Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/3wvO1zK * Follow Garett on Twitter: https://twitter.com/garettjones * Follow me on Twitter: https://twitter.com/dwarkesh_sp 𝐓𝐈𝐌𝐄𝐒𝐓𝐀𝐌𝐏𝐒 00:00:00) - Intro 00:01:08) - Migrants Change Countries with Culture or Votes? 00:09:15 - Impact of Immigrants on Markets & Corruption 00:12:02 - 50% Open Borders? 00:16:54 - Chinese are Unstoppable Capitalists 00:21:39 - Innovation & Immigrants 00:24:53 - Open Borders for Migrants Equivalent to Americans? 00:28:54 - Let's Ignore Side Effects? 00:30:25 - Are Poor Countries Stuck? 00:32:26 - How Can Effective Altruists Increase National IQ 00:39:13 - Clone a million John von Neumann? 00:44:39 - Genetic Selection for IQ 00:47:02 - Democracy, Fed, FDA, & Presidential Power 00:49:42 - EU is a force for good? 00:55:12 - Why is America More Libertarian Than Median Voter? 00:56:19 - Is Ethnic Conflict a Short Run Problem? 00:59:38 - Bond Holder Democracy 01:04:57 - Mormonism 01:08:52 - Garett Jones's Immigration System 01:10:12 - Interviewing SBF

Segments Timeline

1
0:41 - 1:09
0:27 duration87 words

Introducing Garett Jones

In this segment, Garett Jones, an economist from George Mason University, introduces his works, including 'The Culture Transplant' and '10% Less Democracy.' He discusses how these books relate to the impact of migrants on their new countries and the broader implications for democracy.

"Today I have the pleasure of speaking with  Garrett Jones who is an economist at George   Mason University. He's most recently  the author of The Culture Transplant:   How Migrants Make the Economies ..."

2
1:09 - 2:20
1:10 duration192 words

Cultural Impact vs. Voting Power

Garett Jones explores the dual impact of migrants on their new countries, weighing the cultural influence against their political voting power. He suggests that both aspects are significant in shaping a nation's productivity and governance.

"First question. Isn't the cultural transplant a  continuation of your argument against democracy?   Because isn’t one of the reasons we  care about the values of migrants,   the fact that we eliminate..."

3
2:20 - 3:41
1:20 duration228 words

The Role of National IQ

Jones discusses the concept of National IQ, emphasizing the importance of elite intelligence over the lower end of the IQ spectrum. He argues that a nation's productivity is more influenced by its intellectual elite than by its least productive members.

"I'll cheat a little bit because we  don't get to run experiments on this,   so I just have to make an informed guess. I'm gonna call it 50-50. The way citizens   influence a country through formal dem..."

4
3:41 - 5:14
1:32 duration225 words

Median vs. Elite IQ

In this segment, Jones contrasts median voter influence with elite IQ, suggesting that while median IQ matters in democracies, elite intelligence plays a crucial role in driving innovation and productivity in various nations.

"who are disrupting the whole process. The risks  of crime from the lower end is a probabilistic   risk. It's not like some zero to one switch.  We're talking about something probabilistic.  The median..."

5
5:14 - 6:14
1:00 duration157 words

Innovation and Elite Contributions

Jones argues that the contributions of intellectual elites lead to significant innovations that benefit society as a whole. He posits that the positive externalities of elite innovation outweigh the potential negatives of lower-skilled immigrants.

"Hmm. Interesting. Does that imply the fact that,   at least in certain contexts, that elite IQ  matters more than the left tail? Does that imply   that we should want a greater deviation of IQ in  a c..."

6
6:14 - 7:25
1:11 duration181 words

The Trade-offs of Immigration

This segment delves into the complexities of immigration policy, discussing how low-skilled immigration might lower the average IQ but could also increase the variance, potentially benefiting the elite. Jones emphasizes the importance of understanding these trade-offs.

"Can we just apply this line of reasoning to  low skilled immigration as well then? Maybe   the average IQ of your country goes down if you  just let in millions of low skilled immigration   immigrants..."

7
7:25 - 8:52
1:26 duration237 words

Cultural Norms and Assimilation

Jones introduces the concept of 'spaghetti theory,' explaining how migrants influence the cultural norms of their new countries. He argues that cultural assimilation is a two-way street, where both migrants and natives adapt to each other.

"Yes but if you get rid of their migrant's  ability to vote, let’s assume you could do   that, what is the exact mechanism by which  the, the, the cultural values or the lower   median is impacting the..."

8
8:52 - 10:59
2:07 duration358 words

Statistical Analysis of Immigration Effects

Jones critiques existing studies on immigration and economic freedom, presenting his own statistical analysis that shows a negative relationship between low-skilled migration from corrupt countries and changes in economic freedom.

"Native Americans certainly changed in  response to the movement of Europeans.   English Americans certainly changed  in response to the migration of German   and Irish Americans. So this meeting in th..."

9
10:59 - 12:00
1:01 duration183 words

Cultural Values of Migrants

In this segment, Jones discusses the varying cultural values that migrants bring to their new countries. He emphasizes that these values can be both beneficial and detrimental, depending on the context.

"estimate you could run. Change on change. Change  in one thing predicts change in another. They   somehow never got around to running that very  simple statistical analysis. One change predicts   anot..."

10
12:00 - 13:17
1:16 duration187 words

Radical Immigration Liberalization

Jones considers the potential for radical immigration liberalization from countries with high cultural values. He advocates for policies that prioritize migrants from nations with higher education and savings rates.

"got. And sometimes it's just up for debate. So if you had to guess what percentage of the   world has cultural values that are equivalent  to or better than the average of America’s?  Equivalent to or..."

11
13:17 - 14:58
1:41 duration336 words

Maximizing Talent in America

Jones argues for the importance of maximizing talent in America by attracting the best and brightest from around the world. He discusses the implications of hiring practices and the need for a diverse talent pool.

"US level on all three. Why do they have to be   higher? Why not just equivalent? Part of the reason is because the   entire world depends on US innovation. So we  should make America as good as possib..."

12
14:58 - 16:03
1:05 duration182 words

Externalities of Immigration

This segment explores the concept of externalities in immigration, discussing how the introduction of lower-skilled immigrants could negatively impact the productivity of higher-skilled individuals.

"better but the median is a little bit  lower. Because the median's shaping the   productivity of the whole team. This is what  it means when you believe in externalities.  But if you have somebody who..."

13
16:03 - 17:31
1:28 duration261 words

Deep Roots Literature and Economic Performance

Jones critiques the deep roots literature, particularly in relation to China and India, arguing that communism has significantly hindered China's economic performance and that the literature may not fully account for these anomalies.

"are coming from people from countries with low  S A T scores. And by the way, you can explain   what S A T means for the audience who's not  familiar with how you're using that term.  Oh yeah. So ther..."

14
17:31 - 19:14
1:42 duration282 words

Lessons from Economic Trajectories

In this concluding segment, Jones reflects on the economic trajectories of China, India, and the United States, suggesting that the lessons learned from these cases can inform our understanding of national prosperity.

"on institutional quality I don't really quite  understand. If we had good data on North Korea,   North Korea would be even a bigger sort  of deep roots outlier than China is.  ‘Don't have a communist ..."

15
19:31 - 20:37
1:05 duration169 words

The Importance of Testing All Variables

In this segment, Jones critiques Brian Kaplan's analysis of ancestry scores, emphasizing the need to include all relevant variables, particularly the 'T' score. He argues that neglecting this factor leads to an incomplete understanding of economic performance in China and India.

"When Brian Kaplan made the claim that the ancestry  scores, the deep root scores don't predict   the low performance of India and China he only  checked the S and the A in the S A T scores.   Which le..."

16
20:37 - 21:40
1:03 duration150 words

Economic Freedom and Migration

Jones discusses the correlation between migration from corrupt countries and changes in economic freedom. He highlights the importance of measuring these changes accurately to understand the impact of immigration on institutional quality.

"Okay, interesting. The puzzle goes away. Somehow   these guys just never seem to run the simple  things, the transparent things. I don’t know.  The one you mentioned, what was it? Nowrasteh?  The name..."

17
21:40 - 22:55
1:15 duration228 words

Innovation and the Role of Immigration

Jones explores the relationship between innovation and immigration, arguing that while new ideas may be harder to find, the existing innovations still hold significant value. He advocates for maintaining open borders to foster innovation and reduce global poverty.

"Does the ideas getting harder to find stuff and  great stagnation, does that imply we should be   less worried about impinging on the innovation  engine in these countries that people might wanna   mi..."

18
22:55 - 24:07
1:11 duration202 words

Open Borders Experiment in Iceland

In this segment, Jones proposes Iceland as a potential site for an open borders experiment, suggesting that it could serve as a model for assessing the effects of immigration on institutional quality without risking the integrity of larger, more innovative nations.

"rather than none. So obviously that's nice. But  instead, I would prefer to have open borders for   Iceland. If the Open borders advocates are  right and we'll have no noticeable effect on   instituti..."

19
24:07 - 25:30
1:23 duration269 words

The Trade-off of National Productivity

Jones discusses the trade-off between maintaining a small, highly productive country versus a larger one with lower average productivity. He emphasizes the importance of selecting immigrants who can enhance the overall productivity of the nation.

"agglomerations of talent and capital and other  things, which is not true of Iceland. Right?  No, no. I thought the whole point of open borders  is that there's institutional quality and there's   som..."

20
25:30 - 27:03
1:33 duration255 words

The Impact of Immigration on National IQ

Jones delves into the implications of admitting immigrants with varying skill levels on national IQ. He raises concerns about how lowering the average skill level could negatively affect the productivity and institutional quality of the host country.

"No. Take the simple version of my story,  which is the median of the population ends   up shaping the productivity of everybody in  the country. The mean skill level ends up   shaping the productivity..."

21
27:03 - 29:11
2:07 duration376 words

First Order Effects of Immigration

In this segment, Jones argues for the importance of considering first-order effects of immigration, suggesting that moving individuals from poorer countries to wealthier ones can have immediate positive impacts, despite potential long-term uncertainties.

"open borders for everybody who's over 85? This ends up being a math problem that’s a little   hard to solve on a podcast. It's a question of do  I want a smaller country with super high average   prod..."

22
29:11 - 30:07
0:56 duration221 words

Running Experiments in Iceland

Jones advocates for conducting immigration experiments in countries like Iceland rather than the US, emphasizing the need to understand the effects of immigration on institutional quality in a controlled environment.

"order of effect seems good? And moving  somebody who's in a poor country to a   rich country. I don't know how the third and  fourth order effect shapes out but the first   order effect seems good. So..."

23
30:07 - 31:43
1:35 duration265 words

Creating Welcoming Environments for Migrants

Jones discusses strategies for poor countries to improve their economic conditions by creating welcoming environments for migrants, particularly from China. He highlights the potential benefits of such policies while acknowledging historical challenges.

"check and see what happens in Iceland. And I use  Iceland as a metaphor, right? People are obsessed   with running it in America like there's some kind  of need. I don't know why. Let's try it in Fran..."

24
31:43 - 33:10
1:26 duration246 words

Boosting National IQ through Public Health

Jones outlines his vision for increasing national IQ through public health interventions and education in poorer countries. He emphasizes the importance of nutrition and health in child development as a means to improve long-term economic outcomes.

"a poor country with lower s a t scores. In a better world, you can do this with   North Korea too, but the population of North Korea  isn't big enough to make a big dent in the world,   right? China's..."

25
33:10 - 34:28
1:18 duration211 words

Adoption and IQ Improvement

In this segment, Jones discusses the potential for improving global IQ by relocating children from poorer countries to those with better health outcomes. He highlights the short-run benefits while questioning the long-term implications for institutional quality.

"Fortunately we've done a fair amount to  reduce the amount of environmental lead   in a lot of poor countries. That's probably  having a good effect right now as we speak   in a lot of the world's poo..."

26
34:28 - 35:30
1:02 duration187 words

Balancing Global and National IQ

Jones reflects on the complexities of balancing global IQ improvements with the potential negative impacts on national IQ. He emphasizes the need for careful consideration of immigration policies to avoid degrading institutional quality.

"Well, that's a classic short run versus  long run effect. Libertarians and open   borders advocates tend to be focused  on the short run, static effects.  You're right, moving kids from poor countries..."

27
36:32 - 39:13
2:40 duration464 words

Cultural Traits and Economic Productivity

Jones examines the relationship between cultural traits inherited from ancestral nations and current economic productivity. He discusses how differences in frugality and personal responsibility can influence long-term productivity and income disparities across ethnic groups.

"rarely interested in that kind of timeframe. Is there any evidence about the impact of   migration on innovation specifically? So not  on the average institutional quality or the   corruption or whate..."

28
39:13 - 40:50
1:36 duration263 words

Cloning Intelligence: A Thought Experiment

In a thought-provoking discussion, Jones considers the hypothetical scenario of cloning a million John von Neumann's to increase national IQ. He reflects on the potential economic impact of such an increase and the long-term externalities associated with intelligence in society.

"There was a blogger who took a look at your 2004  paper about the impact of National IQ on GDP.   They were just speculating, let's say you  cloned a million John Von Neumann’s and assume   that John ..."

29
40:50 - 42:58
2:08 duration361 words

Allocating Intelligence: Market vs. Community

Jones debates the optimal allocation of intelligence across the country, weighing the benefits of agglomeration in innovation hubs like Silicon Valley against the need for intelligent individuals to contribute to local communities. He emphasizes the importance of geographic distribution and the role of status games in fostering innovation.

"Because one answer, and I guess this  is the default answer in our society,   is you just send them where they can  get paid the most because that's a   good enough proxy for how much they're  contrib..."

30
42:58 - 44:41
1:42 duration193 words

Increasing Returns to National IQ

In this segment, Jones discusses his findings on the relationship between national IQ and economic productivity, suggesting that there are increasing returns to national IQ. He connects this to the organization of labor and the multiplicative effects of intelligence on productivity.

"people leave Kentucky and go to San Francisco? I'm a big agglomeration guy. The internet makes it   easier but being in the room is still important. There's something both Hansonian and Girardian   he..."

31
44:41 - 46:10
1:28 duration252 words

Genetic Selection for Intelligence

Jones shares his views on genetic selection for intelligence, advocating for voluntary practices that allow individuals to choose the traits of their children. He discusses the current state of genetic selection in society and its potential positive effects on future generations.

"Are you a fan of genetic selection for  intelligence as a means of increasing   national IQ or do you think that's  too much playing at the margins? If it's voluntary, people should  be able to do wha..."

32
46:10 - 47:26
1:16 duration202 words

AI and Human Intelligence: A Comparison

In a fascinating discussion, Jones compares the measured IQ of AI models like ChatGPT to human intelligence. He reflects on the implications of AI's capabilities for jobs traditionally held by humans and the potential disruptions in various career fields.

"sign that a lot of mundane, even fairly complex,  moderately complex human interactions can be   simulated by a large language learning model. And I think that's gonna be rough news for a   lot of peo..."

33
47:26 - 49:42
2:16 duration369 words

Democracy and Institutional Effectiveness

Jones analyzes the effectiveness of different government institutions, contrasting the Federal Reserve's independence with the challenges faced by the FDA and CDC. He argues for the importance of independent committees in enhancing institutional performance.

"If you look at something like the FDA, it's  also somewhat insulated from democratic   processes but it seems to not work as well.  Controlling food democracy, what determines   how well an institutio..."

34
49:42 - 51:04
1:22 duration233 words

The European Union and Market Dynamics

In this segment, Jones discusses the European Union's impact on market dynamics and economic freedom. He argues that while the EU may not be perfect, it nudges member countries towards greater market orientation, reflecting the varying levels of market friendliness among European voters.

"Mm-hmm. The European Union is an interesting  example here because they also have these   appointed technocrats, but they seem more  interested in creating annoying popups on   your websites than with..."

35
51:04 - 52:16
1:11 duration181 words

Migration's Role in Economic Openness

Jones concludes by reflecting on the selection effects of migration, suggesting that those who migrate to America often possess traits that favor economic openness. He speculates on how this selection contributes to the differences in market attitudes between Europe and the United States.

"What do you think explains the fact  that Europe as a whole and the voters   there are less market friendly than Americans? Compared to the planet as a whole, they're pretty   good. I never get that e..."

36
52:10 - 53:15
1:04 duration173 words

Elite Control in Democracies

Garett Jones explores the effectiveness of elite technocratic control in democracies, arguing that it can yield positive outcomes even in less democratic systems. He discusses the balance between elite governance and democratic protections, emphasizing the need for competent elites in policy-making.

"more open to laissez faire than Europe would be. Does that overall make you more optimistic about   migration to the US from anywhere? The same story Yeah, ceteris paribus. America gets people who   a..."

37
53:15 - 54:44
1:29 duration209 words

Romanticizing Monarchy vs. Oligarchy

Jones critiques the neoreactionary perspective that romanticizes monarchy, arguing that successful monarchies often function more like oligarchies. He emphasizes the importance of understanding the equilibrium between power structures in governance, rather than idealizing historical forms of rule.

"and steer everything toward themselves and  not give a darn about the masses at all.  A lot of elite control in any kind of democracy is  gonna have a good effect if you're really looking   at somethi..."

38
54:44 - 56:19
1:34 duration244 words

Voter Preferences and Government Involvement

In this segment, Jones discusses the disconnect between median voter preferences and actual government policies. He explains how politicians navigate the contradictory demands of voters, balancing public desires with the need for economic growth to secure reelection.

"of the entrepreneur who owns the firm, or the  monarch who has the long-term interest in being   a stationary bandit. In real life, there's this  sort of muddled thing in between that works out as   t..."

39
56:19 - 57:58
1:38 duration263 words

Ethnic Diversity and Conflict

Jones addresses the persistence of ethnic conflict, suggesting that while some tensions may fade, the underlying human tendency to find focal points for conflict remains. He argues that cultural values, rather than ethnicity, play a crucial role in mitigating or exacerbating these conflicts.

"Over the long run, should we expect all of  the tensions of ethnic diversity to fade away?   Nobody today worries about the different Parisian  tribes in France butting heads at the workplace.  Yeah, ..."

40
57:58 - 59:39
1:41 duration299 words

The Benefits of Diversity in Low-Cost Vetting

Garett Jones highlights how lower search and vetting costs can enhance the benefits of diversity in various professions. He discusses the role of online platforms in facilitating access to services and the importance of transparency in reviews to improve market efficiency.

"some of these things will fade with time. The  problem with human beings, one of our great evils,   is that we are always looking for a focal point. People will use visible appearance as a horrifying ..."

41
59:39 - 1:01:56
2:16 duration374 words

Bondholder Democracy and Corporate Longevity

In this segment, Jones examines the concept of bondholder democracy, discussing how bondholders can influence corporate longevity and decision-making. He argues that a rigorous bond market encourages the reallocation of resources from low to high productivity firms.

"in 10% less democracy was the  chapter on bond holder democracy.  I'm curious, corporations are obviously  an example to use here where they do have   bond holders who hold them accountable but the  a..."

42
1:01:56 - 1:03:31
1:35 duration287 words

Fiscal Policy and Bondholder Influence

Jones discusses the implications of fiscal policy on bondholders, predicting that the U.S. will address its fiscal challenges through a combination of tax hikes and reduced spending. He emphasizes the potential for a value-added tax to significantly increase revenue.

"Why are yields on 30 year fixed treasuries so low?  Because theoretically, investors should know that   we have a lot of liabilities in the form of social  security to baby boomers and that we've radi..."

43
1:03:31 - 1:04:46
1:14 duration161 words

Welfare State Dynamics

Garett Jones speculates on the future of the welfare state in America, suggesting that while it may shrink in quality or quantity, economic growth could still enhance healthcare quality over time. He reflects on the balance between maintaining welfare and economic progress.

"the middle class. That's probably the most  likely outcome. Hence no hyperinflation.  So are you expecting the welfare state to  shrink either in quality or quantity over time?  In relative terms, com..."

44
1:04:46 - 1:07:46
2:59 duration470 words

Mormonism and Community Trust

Jones explores the deep roots of Mormonism, attributing its high levels of trust and community cohesion to historical selection processes. He discusses how the challenges faced by early Mormons fostered a culture of commitment and prosocial behavior that persists today.

"fiscal policy credibility and they'll take action. What are the deep roots of Mormonism? Why do   they have such high trust and  such tight-knit communities?  I think part of it is that they reflect  ..."

45
1:07:46 - 1:08:36
0:49 duration155 words

Mormon Frugality and Economic Impact

In this concluding segment, Jones reflects on the economic implications of Mormon frugality, suggesting that it contributes positively to capital accumulation and productivity. He discusses the social value of leaving inheritances and the broader economic benefits of such behaviors.

"helping make us all more productive, which I think  is something that fits in with Mormon values.  Yeah. I think people have pointed out that people  should be spending more money given the fact that ..."

46
1:09:05 - 1:10:13
1:07 duration216 words

The Complexity of High IQ and Fraud

Jones discusses the paradox of high IQ individuals in society, noting that while they may be less likely to commit fraud, when they do, they can be exceptionally skilled at it. He reflects on the implications of having a society with high intelligence and the potential risks associated with it, particularly in zero-sum economic scenarios. This segment raises important questions about the relationship between intelligence, cooperation, and ethical behavior.

"your personal skill, and education and things like No, I'd wanna launch a 10 year, maybe 20 year   research project of figuring how to turn  the deep roots scores into something useful.  Right now wit..."

47
1:10:13 - 1:13:45
3:31 duration569 words

The Dark Side of Intelligence

In this concluding segment, Garett Jones warns about the dangers posed by highly intelligent individuals in a competitive, resource-scarce environment. He argues that without economic growth, high IQ individuals may resort to self-serving behaviors that could harm societal cooperation. This discussion serves as a cautionary tale about the potential consequences of intelligence in a zero-sum world.

"How was the SBF thing? Did he  just say “I'll fly you out?”  I was there for the EA Bahamas  and then while I was there, I   talked to somebody who knew him and I'm  like, “Hey, I would love to interv..."