
47 segments available
Garett Jones is an economist at George Mason University and he is the author of The Cultural Transplant, Hive Mind, and 10% Less Democracy. This episode was fun and interesting throughout! He explains: * How migrants bring their values to their new countries, * Why national IQ matters, * How the Chinese people are an unstoppable global force for free markets, * Why we should have less democracy 𝐄𝐏𝐈𝐒𝐎𝐃𝐄 𝐋𝐈𝐍𝐊𝐒 * Transcript: https://www.dwarkeshpatel.com/p/garett-jones * Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3j3av8m * Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/3wvO1zK * Follow Garett on Twitter: https://twitter.com/garettjones * Follow me on Twitter: https://twitter.com/dwarkesh_sp 𝐓𝐈𝐌𝐄𝐒𝐓𝐀𝐌𝐏𝐒 00:00:00) - Intro 00:01:08) - Migrants Change Countries with Culture or Votes? 00:09:15 - Impact of Immigrants on Markets & Corruption 00:12:02 - 50% Open Borders? 00:16:54 - Chinese are Unstoppable Capitalists 00:21:39 - Innovation & Immigrants 00:24:53 - Open Borders for Migrants Equivalent to Americans? 00:28:54 - Let's Ignore Side Effects? 00:30:25 - Are Poor Countries Stuck? 00:32:26 - How Can Effective Altruists Increase National IQ 00:39:13 - Clone a million John von Neumann? 00:44:39 - Genetic Selection for IQ 00:47:02 - Democracy, Fed, FDA, & Presidential Power 00:49:42 - EU is a force for good? 00:55:12 - Why is America More Libertarian Than Median Voter? 00:56:19 - Is Ethnic Conflict a Short Run Problem? 00:59:38 - Bond Holder Democracy 01:04:57 - Mormonism 01:08:52 - Garett Jones's Immigration System 01:10:12 - Interviewing SBF
In this segment, Garett Jones, an economist from George Mason University, introduces his works, including 'The Culture Transplant' and '10% Less Democracy.' He discusses how these books relate to the impact of migrants on their new countries and the broader implications for democracy.
"Today I have the pleasure of speaking with Garrett Jones who is an economist at George Mason University. He's most recently the author of The Culture Transplant: How Migrants Make the Economies ..."
Garett Jones explores the dual impact of migrants on their new countries, weighing the cultural influence against their political voting power. He suggests that both aspects are significant in shaping a nation's productivity and governance.
"First question. Isn't the cultural transplant a continuation of your argument against democracy? Because isn’t one of the reasons we care about the values of migrants, the fact that we eliminate..."
Jones discusses the concept of National IQ, emphasizing the importance of elite intelligence over the lower end of the IQ spectrum. He argues that a nation's productivity is more influenced by its intellectual elite than by its least productive members.
"I'll cheat a little bit because we don't get to run experiments on this, so I just have to make an informed guess. I'm gonna call it 50-50. The way citizens influence a country through formal dem..."
In this segment, Jones contrasts median voter influence with elite IQ, suggesting that while median IQ matters in democracies, elite intelligence plays a crucial role in driving innovation and productivity in various nations.
"who are disrupting the whole process. The risks of crime from the lower end is a probabilistic risk. It's not like some zero to one switch. We're talking about something probabilistic. The median..."
Jones argues that the contributions of intellectual elites lead to significant innovations that benefit society as a whole. He posits that the positive externalities of elite innovation outweigh the potential negatives of lower-skilled immigrants.
"Hmm. Interesting. Does that imply the fact that, at least in certain contexts, that elite IQ matters more than the left tail? Does that imply that we should want a greater deviation of IQ in a c..."
This segment delves into the complexities of immigration policy, discussing how low-skilled immigration might lower the average IQ but could also increase the variance, potentially benefiting the elite. Jones emphasizes the importance of understanding these trade-offs.
"Can we just apply this line of reasoning to low skilled immigration as well then? Maybe the average IQ of your country goes down if you just let in millions of low skilled immigration immigrants..."
Jones introduces the concept of 'spaghetti theory,' explaining how migrants influence the cultural norms of their new countries. He argues that cultural assimilation is a two-way street, where both migrants and natives adapt to each other.
"Yes but if you get rid of their migrant's ability to vote, let’s assume you could do that, what is the exact mechanism by which the, the, the cultural values or the lower median is impacting the..."
Jones critiques existing studies on immigration and economic freedom, presenting his own statistical analysis that shows a negative relationship between low-skilled migration from corrupt countries and changes in economic freedom.
"Native Americans certainly changed in response to the movement of Europeans. English Americans certainly changed in response to the migration of German and Irish Americans. So this meeting in th..."
In this segment, Jones discusses the varying cultural values that migrants bring to their new countries. He emphasizes that these values can be both beneficial and detrimental, depending on the context.
"estimate you could run. Change on change. Change in one thing predicts change in another. They somehow never got around to running that very simple statistical analysis. One change predicts anot..."
Jones considers the potential for radical immigration liberalization from countries with high cultural values. He advocates for policies that prioritize migrants from nations with higher education and savings rates.
"got. And sometimes it's just up for debate. So if you had to guess what percentage of the world has cultural values that are equivalent to or better than the average of America’s? Equivalent to or..."
Jones argues for the importance of maximizing talent in America by attracting the best and brightest from around the world. He discusses the implications of hiring practices and the need for a diverse talent pool.
"US level on all three. Why do they have to be higher? Why not just equivalent? Part of the reason is because the entire world depends on US innovation. So we should make America as good as possib..."
This segment explores the concept of externalities in immigration, discussing how the introduction of lower-skilled immigrants could negatively impact the productivity of higher-skilled individuals.
"better but the median is a little bit lower. Because the median's shaping the productivity of the whole team. This is what it means when you believe in externalities. But if you have somebody who..."
Jones critiques the deep roots literature, particularly in relation to China and India, arguing that communism has significantly hindered China's economic performance and that the literature may not fully account for these anomalies.
"are coming from people from countries with low S A T scores. And by the way, you can explain what S A T means for the audience who's not familiar with how you're using that term. Oh yeah. So ther..."
In this concluding segment, Jones reflects on the economic trajectories of China, India, and the United States, suggesting that the lessons learned from these cases can inform our understanding of national prosperity.
"on institutional quality I don't really quite understand. If we had good data on North Korea, North Korea would be even a bigger sort of deep roots outlier than China is. ‘Don't have a communist ..."
In this segment, Jones critiques Brian Kaplan's analysis of ancestry scores, emphasizing the need to include all relevant variables, particularly the 'T' score. He argues that neglecting this factor leads to an incomplete understanding of economic performance in China and India.
"When Brian Kaplan made the claim that the ancestry scores, the deep root scores don't predict the low performance of India and China he only checked the S and the A in the S A T scores. Which le..."
Jones discusses the correlation between migration from corrupt countries and changes in economic freedom. He highlights the importance of measuring these changes accurately to understand the impact of immigration on institutional quality.
"Okay, interesting. The puzzle goes away. Somehow these guys just never seem to run the simple things, the transparent things. I don’t know. The one you mentioned, what was it? Nowrasteh? The name..."
Jones explores the relationship between innovation and immigration, arguing that while new ideas may be harder to find, the existing innovations still hold significant value. He advocates for maintaining open borders to foster innovation and reduce global poverty.
"Does the ideas getting harder to find stuff and great stagnation, does that imply we should be less worried about impinging on the innovation engine in these countries that people might wanna mi..."
In this segment, Jones proposes Iceland as a potential site for an open borders experiment, suggesting that it could serve as a model for assessing the effects of immigration on institutional quality without risking the integrity of larger, more innovative nations.
"rather than none. So obviously that's nice. But instead, I would prefer to have open borders for Iceland. If the Open borders advocates are right and we'll have no noticeable effect on instituti..."
Jones discusses the trade-off between maintaining a small, highly productive country versus a larger one with lower average productivity. He emphasizes the importance of selecting immigrants who can enhance the overall productivity of the nation.
"agglomerations of talent and capital and other things, which is not true of Iceland. Right? No, no. I thought the whole point of open borders is that there's institutional quality and there's som..."
Jones delves into the implications of admitting immigrants with varying skill levels on national IQ. He raises concerns about how lowering the average skill level could negatively affect the productivity and institutional quality of the host country.
"No. Take the simple version of my story, which is the median of the population ends up shaping the productivity of everybody in the country. The mean skill level ends up shaping the productivity..."
In this segment, Jones argues for the importance of considering first-order effects of immigration, suggesting that moving individuals from poorer countries to wealthier ones can have immediate positive impacts, despite potential long-term uncertainties.
"open borders for everybody who's over 85? This ends up being a math problem that’s a little hard to solve on a podcast. It's a question of do I want a smaller country with super high average prod..."
Jones advocates for conducting immigration experiments in countries like Iceland rather than the US, emphasizing the need to understand the effects of immigration on institutional quality in a controlled environment.
"order of effect seems good? And moving somebody who's in a poor country to a rich country. I don't know how the third and fourth order effect shapes out but the first order effect seems good. So..."
Jones discusses strategies for poor countries to improve their economic conditions by creating welcoming environments for migrants, particularly from China. He highlights the potential benefits of such policies while acknowledging historical challenges.
"check and see what happens in Iceland. And I use Iceland as a metaphor, right? People are obsessed with running it in America like there's some kind of need. I don't know why. Let's try it in Fran..."
Jones outlines his vision for increasing national IQ through public health interventions and education in poorer countries. He emphasizes the importance of nutrition and health in child development as a means to improve long-term economic outcomes.
"a poor country with lower s a t scores. In a better world, you can do this with North Korea too, but the population of North Korea isn't big enough to make a big dent in the world, right? China's..."
In this segment, Jones discusses the potential for improving global IQ by relocating children from poorer countries to those with better health outcomes. He highlights the short-run benefits while questioning the long-term implications for institutional quality.
"Fortunately we've done a fair amount to reduce the amount of environmental lead in a lot of poor countries. That's probably having a good effect right now as we speak in a lot of the world's poo..."
Jones reflects on the complexities of balancing global IQ improvements with the potential negative impacts on national IQ. He emphasizes the need for careful consideration of immigration policies to avoid degrading institutional quality.
"Well, that's a classic short run versus long run effect. Libertarians and open borders advocates tend to be focused on the short run, static effects. You're right, moving kids from poor countries..."
Jones examines the relationship between cultural traits inherited from ancestral nations and current economic productivity. He discusses how differences in frugality and personal responsibility can influence long-term productivity and income disparities across ethnic groups.
"rarely interested in that kind of timeframe. Is there any evidence about the impact of migration on innovation specifically? So not on the average institutional quality or the corruption or whate..."
In a thought-provoking discussion, Jones considers the hypothetical scenario of cloning a million John von Neumann's to increase national IQ. He reflects on the potential economic impact of such an increase and the long-term externalities associated with intelligence in society.
"There was a blogger who took a look at your 2004 paper about the impact of National IQ on GDP. They were just speculating, let's say you cloned a million John Von Neumann’s and assume that John ..."
Jones debates the optimal allocation of intelligence across the country, weighing the benefits of agglomeration in innovation hubs like Silicon Valley against the need for intelligent individuals to contribute to local communities. He emphasizes the importance of geographic distribution and the role of status games in fostering innovation.
"Because one answer, and I guess this is the default answer in our society, is you just send them where they can get paid the most because that's a good enough proxy for how much they're contrib..."
In this segment, Jones discusses his findings on the relationship between national IQ and economic productivity, suggesting that there are increasing returns to national IQ. He connects this to the organization of labor and the multiplicative effects of intelligence on productivity.
"people leave Kentucky and go to San Francisco? I'm a big agglomeration guy. The internet makes it easier but being in the room is still important. There's something both Hansonian and Girardian he..."
Jones shares his views on genetic selection for intelligence, advocating for voluntary practices that allow individuals to choose the traits of their children. He discusses the current state of genetic selection in society and its potential positive effects on future generations.
"Are you a fan of genetic selection for intelligence as a means of increasing national IQ or do you think that's too much playing at the margins? If it's voluntary, people should be able to do wha..."
In a fascinating discussion, Jones compares the measured IQ of AI models like ChatGPT to human intelligence. He reflects on the implications of AI's capabilities for jobs traditionally held by humans and the potential disruptions in various career fields.
"sign that a lot of mundane, even fairly complex, moderately complex human interactions can be simulated by a large language learning model. And I think that's gonna be rough news for a lot of peo..."
Jones analyzes the effectiveness of different government institutions, contrasting the Federal Reserve's independence with the challenges faced by the FDA and CDC. He argues for the importance of independent committees in enhancing institutional performance.
"If you look at something like the FDA, it's also somewhat insulated from democratic processes but it seems to not work as well. Controlling food democracy, what determines how well an institutio..."
In this segment, Jones discusses the European Union's impact on market dynamics and economic freedom. He argues that while the EU may not be perfect, it nudges member countries towards greater market orientation, reflecting the varying levels of market friendliness among European voters.
"Mm-hmm. The European Union is an interesting example here because they also have these appointed technocrats, but they seem more interested in creating annoying popups on your websites than with..."
Jones concludes by reflecting on the selection effects of migration, suggesting that those who migrate to America often possess traits that favor economic openness. He speculates on how this selection contributes to the differences in market attitudes between Europe and the United States.
"What do you think explains the fact that Europe as a whole and the voters there are less market friendly than Americans? Compared to the planet as a whole, they're pretty good. I never get that e..."
Garett Jones explores the effectiveness of elite technocratic control in democracies, arguing that it can yield positive outcomes even in less democratic systems. He discusses the balance between elite governance and democratic protections, emphasizing the need for competent elites in policy-making.
"more open to laissez faire than Europe would be. Does that overall make you more optimistic about migration to the US from anywhere? The same story Yeah, ceteris paribus. America gets people who a..."
Jones critiques the neoreactionary perspective that romanticizes monarchy, arguing that successful monarchies often function more like oligarchies. He emphasizes the importance of understanding the equilibrium between power structures in governance, rather than idealizing historical forms of rule.
"and steer everything toward themselves and not give a darn about the masses at all. A lot of elite control in any kind of democracy is gonna have a good effect if you're really looking at somethi..."
In this segment, Jones discusses the disconnect between median voter preferences and actual government policies. He explains how politicians navigate the contradictory demands of voters, balancing public desires with the need for economic growth to secure reelection.
"of the entrepreneur who owns the firm, or the monarch who has the long-term interest in being a stationary bandit. In real life, there's this sort of muddled thing in between that works out as t..."
Jones addresses the persistence of ethnic conflict, suggesting that while some tensions may fade, the underlying human tendency to find focal points for conflict remains. He argues that cultural values, rather than ethnicity, play a crucial role in mitigating or exacerbating these conflicts.
"Over the long run, should we expect all of the tensions of ethnic diversity to fade away? Nobody today worries about the different Parisian tribes in France butting heads at the workplace. Yeah, ..."
Garett Jones highlights how lower search and vetting costs can enhance the benefits of diversity in various professions. He discusses the role of online platforms in facilitating access to services and the importance of transparency in reviews to improve market efficiency.
"some of these things will fade with time. The problem with human beings, one of our great evils, is that we are always looking for a focal point. People will use visible appearance as a horrifying ..."
In this segment, Jones examines the concept of bondholder democracy, discussing how bondholders can influence corporate longevity and decision-making. He argues that a rigorous bond market encourages the reallocation of resources from low to high productivity firms.
"in 10% less democracy was the chapter on bond holder democracy. I'm curious, corporations are obviously an example to use here where they do have bond holders who hold them accountable but the a..."
Jones discusses the implications of fiscal policy on bondholders, predicting that the U.S. will address its fiscal challenges through a combination of tax hikes and reduced spending. He emphasizes the potential for a value-added tax to significantly increase revenue.
"Why are yields on 30 year fixed treasuries so low? Because theoretically, investors should know that we have a lot of liabilities in the form of social security to baby boomers and that we've radi..."
Garett Jones speculates on the future of the welfare state in America, suggesting that while it may shrink in quality or quantity, economic growth could still enhance healthcare quality over time. He reflects on the balance between maintaining welfare and economic progress.
"the middle class. That's probably the most likely outcome. Hence no hyperinflation. So are you expecting the welfare state to shrink either in quality or quantity over time? In relative terms, com..."
Jones explores the deep roots of Mormonism, attributing its high levels of trust and community cohesion to historical selection processes. He discusses how the challenges faced by early Mormons fostered a culture of commitment and prosocial behavior that persists today.
"fiscal policy credibility and they'll take action. What are the deep roots of Mormonism? Why do they have such high trust and such tight-knit communities? I think part of it is that they reflect ..."
In this concluding segment, Jones reflects on the economic implications of Mormon frugality, suggesting that it contributes positively to capital accumulation and productivity. He discusses the social value of leaving inheritances and the broader economic benefits of such behaviors.
"helping make us all more productive, which I think is something that fits in with Mormon values. Yeah. I think people have pointed out that people should be spending more money given the fact that ..."
Jones discusses the paradox of high IQ individuals in society, noting that while they may be less likely to commit fraud, when they do, they can be exceptionally skilled at it. He reflects on the implications of having a society with high intelligence and the potential risks associated with it, particularly in zero-sum economic scenarios. This segment raises important questions about the relationship between intelligence, cooperation, and ethical behavior.
"your personal skill, and education and things like No, I'd wanna launch a 10 year, maybe 20 year research project of figuring how to turn the deep roots scores into something useful. Right now wit..."
In this concluding segment, Garett Jones warns about the dangers posed by highly intelligent individuals in a competitive, resource-scarce environment. He argues that without economic growth, high IQ individuals may resort to self-serving behaviors that could harm societal cooperation. This discussion serves as a cautionary tale about the potential consequences of intelligence in a zero-sum world.
"How was the SBF thing? Did he just say “I'll fly you out?” I was there for the EA Bahamas and then while I was there, I talked to somebody who knew him and I'm like, “Hey, I would love to interv..."