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a16z Podcast | Seeing into the Future -- Making Decisions, Telling Stories
37 segments available
with Steven Johnson (@stevenbjohnson), Chris Dixon (@cdixon), and Sonal Chokshi (@smc90) There's a lot of research and writing out there on "thinking fast" -- the short-term, gut, instinctual decisions we make, biases we have, and heuristics we use -- but what about for "thinking slow" -- the long-term decisions we make that both take longer to deliberate and have longer spans of impact on our lives... and the world? Because we're not only talking about decisions like who to marry (or whether to move) here; we're also talking about decisions that impact future generations in ways we as a species never considered (or could consider) before. But... why bother, if these decisions are so complex, with competing value systems, countless interacting variables, and unforeseeable second- and third-order effects? We can't predict the future, so why try? Well, while there's no crystal ball that allows you to see clearly into the future, we can certainly try to ensure better outcomes than merely flipping a coin, argues author Steven B. Johnson in his new book, Farsighted: How We Make the Decisions That Matter Most. Especially because the hardest choices are the most consequential, he observes, yet we know so little about how to get them right. So in this episode of the a16z Podcast, Johnson shares with a16z crypto general partner Chris Dixon and a16z's Sonal Chokshi specific strategies -- beyond good old-fashioned pro/con lists and post-mortems -- for modeling the deliberative tactics of expert decision-makers (and not just oil-company scenario planners, but also storytellers). The decisions we're talking about here aren't just about individual lives and businesses -- whether launching a new product feature or deciding where to innovate next -- they're also about even bigger and bolder things like how to fix the internet, or what message to send aliens with outcomes spanning centuries far into the future. But that's where the power of story comes in again. * * * The content provided here is for informational purposes only, and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to purchase any investment solution or a recommendation to buy or sell a security; nor it is to be taken as legal, business, investment, or tax advice. In fact, none of the information in this or other content on a16zcrypto.com should be relied on in any manner as advice. Please see a16zcrypto.com/disclosures/ for further information.
Segments Timeline
Introducing the Podcast and Guests
In this segment, Sonal Chokshi introduces the a16z podcast and welcomes guests Chris Dixon and Steven B. Johnson. They discuss Johnson's background and his latest book, 'Farsighted,' which focuses on long-term decision-making. This introduction sets the stage for a deeper exploration of how we make significant life decisions.
"hi everyone welcome to the a6 and Z podcast I'm sonal and I'm here today with Chris Dixon a general partner on a 6 + Z crypto and Steven B Johnson who is the author of many books including where good ..."
The Importance of Long-Term Decision-Making
Steven B. Johnson emphasizes the need for a shift in focus from short-term, instinctual decision-making to long-term deliberative processes. He discusses the disproportionate amount of literature on gut decisions compared to the more complex, consequential slow decisions that shape our lives and future generations.
"could you start just telling us a little about the book yeah this is a book that has been a long time in the making which is appropriate for a book about long-term decision-making I had a long incubat..."
Pros and Cons: An Outdated Tool?
Johnson critiques the traditional pros and cons list as a decision-making tool, highlighting its limitations in addressing complex life choices. He argues for the necessity of more sophisticated methods to navigate the intricacies of significant decisions, which often involve multiple variables and competing values.
"have a much longer both time span in terms of how much time you spend deliberating them and then also the time span of their consequences and I got interested in what the the kind of the science is an..."
Understanding Decision-Making Frameworks
In this segment, Johnson discusses the descriptive and normative aspects of decision-making. He explores how people currently make decisions and how they should ideally approach them, emphasizing the importance of developing better tools and frameworks for effective long-term decision-making.
"of state of the art for most people that's the one tool they have for making a complicated decision and actually we have a lot more tools and we have a lot more insight about how to make these things ..."
The Complexity of Life Decisions
Johnson reflects on the unique nature of complex life decisions, such as career choices and marriage. He explains that these decisions are often influenced by numerous variables and competing values, making them challenging to navigate. He introduces the idea of using structured thinking to better understand these complexities.
"and stuff like that and it turns out really that a lot of the the the science of this and the kind of practice of making a deliberative decision is a set of tricks to get your mind to see the problem ..."
Scenario Planning: A Business Approach
Johnson introduces scenario planning as a valuable tool for decision-making, particularly in business contexts. He shares insights from his experiences with large oil companies that utilize rigorous scenario planning to anticipate market changes and prepare for various future outcomes.
"that's usually used in a kind of business context right so you're like okay we're trying to decide should we start this launch this new product let's generate some scenario plans for what the market i..."
The Power of Storytelling in Decision-Making
This segment highlights the role of storytelling in decision-making. Johnson discusses how creating narratives around potential future scenarios can help individuals and organizations prepare for uncertainty. He emphasizes the importance of considering various outcomes, including unexpected ones, to foster a mindset open to change.
"years with with Peter Schwartz whose shear in the Bay Area and and he was one of the pioneers of scenario planning and one model that that he talks about is you do three different narratives one where..."
Long-Term Thinking and Societal Progress
Johnson argues that society is increasingly capable of making long-term decisions, such as addressing climate change and the implications of superintelligence. He notes that the ability to consider the long-term consequences of our actions is a sign of progress, contrasting it with historical limitations in foresight.
"variables but the other thing I was just gonna say on the storytelling front that one of the places where it kind of came together there's there's a lot in the book about collective decisions like wha..."
Science Fiction as a Cognitive Tool
In this segment, Johnson discusses the value of science fiction as a tool for exploring future scenarios. He explains how fictional narratives can help us envision potential outcomes and guide our decision-making processes, even if the scenarios themselves are not realistic.
"and superintelligence is even better example of it I think because the fact that we're having a debate about a problem that is not at all a problem for us now but that potentially might be a problem i..."
The Challenge of Complex Decisions
Johnson shares a personal anecdote about moving to Northern California, illustrating the complexities involved in making significant life decisions. He emphasizes the multitude of variables at play and the long-term impact such choices can have on family and personal life.
"context yeah my bias has always been towards history for example like the only way you're ever going to possibly get a lens on how to predict the future is to read a lot of history understand how thin..."
The Future of Decision-Making Simulations
The discussion shifts to the potential of simulations in decision-making. Johnson and Dixon explore how advancements in computing could allow for more sophisticated modeling of complex decisions, enabling better predictions and outcomes in various scenarios.
"right yeah everybody we've got ten of you that are going to move you mentioned the book simulations we have like a actually some investments in this area but like the idea that computing is getting po..."
Narrative as Simulation
Here, the speakers connect the idea of simulations to storytelling, arguing that novels serve as a form of parallel simulations of life choices. They discuss how reading fiction allows individuals to explore emotional complexities and outcomes of decisions they cannot simulate in reality, thus enhancing their understanding of potential life paths.
"for moving to California but you could run a simulation for changing interest rates now or for closing down a bridge those things I think are fairly limited today you could imagine them getting orders..."
The Evolutionary Role of Narrative
This segment explores the evolutionary significance of storytelling. The speakers argue that narratives help individuals prepare for future decisions by allowing them to experience different scenarios emotionally and intellectually. They highlight how engaging with stories expands our mental landscape and enhances our ability to navigate complex choices.
"some some ways my first book was shaped by that Marc Andreessen Elsa says is a huge influence yeah yeah and so so we will I think that is that it's something that's coming we should explain Sameer wor..."
Mock Trials and Decision-Making
The discussion shifts to the effectiveness of mock trials as a form of simulation for group decision-making. The speakers analyze how these trials can reveal insights into group dynamics and decision processes, emphasizing the importance of diversity in groups to enhance decision quality and explore a wider range of possibilities.
"right yeah yeah what was that thing he was like life streams now he's he thinks about in the context of streams as like browsers Twitter like the automation that we constantly live in so you basically..."
Diversity in Decision-Making
In this segment, the speakers discuss the classic idea that diversity trumps ability in group decision-making scenarios. They explain how diverse groups, even if less academically accomplished, can outperform homogenous groups by bringing varied perspectives and experiences to the table, ultimately leading to better decision outcomes.
"real war that he's fighting in the final simulation so the other thing about simulations is a big theme of the book it's one of those kind of ways in which the book connects to storytelling as well be..."
Uncovering Hidden Knowledge
The conversation focuses on the concept of 'hidden profiles' in group decision-making. The speakers highlight the tendency of groups to discuss only shared knowledge, which can limit the effectiveness of decision-making. They propose strategies to surface hidden information by assigning roles and encouraging diverse contributions to enhance group outcomes.
"practice of seeing oh it played out this way with this person's life this book that this other person dies and in the novel's ability to take you into this psychological in emergency of what's going o..."
Foxes vs. Hedgehogs in Expertise
This segment contrasts the classic 'fox vs. hedgehog' framework in decision-making. The speakers discuss research showing that individuals who possess diverse knowledge (foxes) tend to perform better in complex decision scenarios than those with a singular focus (hedgehogs). They emphasize the importance of adaptability and breadth of knowledge in making accurate predictions.
"do that is because there is an incredible adaptive value in running those simulations in our heads is that then it prepares us for our we're building kind of the emotional like logic space or somethin..."
The Art of Prediction
The speakers delve into the challenges of predicting future events and the limitations of expert opinions. They reference Philip Tetlock's research on forecasting, highlighting that many experts struggle with accuracy. However, they identify a subset of individuals who excel at making predictions, emphasizing the need for diverse perspectives in understanding complex future scenarios.
"to do that to sort of adapt to be more sufficiently sophisticated there's a there's a great essay by tooby and cosmides I believe names are pronounced about that kind of evolutionary function of story..."
Uncovering Hidden Knowledge in Groups
In this segment, the discussion revolves around the importance of revealing hidden information within group decision-making. Steven Johnson explains how assigning roles can help surface unique insights that might otherwise remain unshared, emphasizing the psychological tendency of groups to focus on common ground rather than diverse perspectives.
"knows about this decision that's obvious for the group to be effective you've got to get the hidden pieces of information that only one member knows but that add to the puzzle right and for some reaso..."
Foxes vs. Hedgehogs in Decision-Making
Johnson contrasts the classic archetypes of foxes and hedgehogs in decision-making. He highlights that while hedgehogs may have deep expertise in one area, it is the foxes—those with diverse knowledge and interests—who tend to excel in making accurate long-term predictions, as evidenced by Philip Tetlock's research on forecasting.
"of seeking common ground but then later you talk about this difference between the classic phrase of boxes and hedgehogs yeah and how actually it's not hedgehogs that are deep experts in a single thin..."
The Role of Diverse Interests in Innovation
This segment explores how individuals with varied hobbies and interests often drive innovation. Johnson shares anecdotes from Xerox PARC, illustrating how experts in different fields, such as material science and information theory, also engaged in unrelated passions, contributing to their creative breakthroughs.
"significantly better than average at predicting kind of long-term events which of course is incredibly important for making decisions because you're thinking about what's going to happen you can't mak..."
Long-Term Thinking in Business
The conversation shifts to the importance of long-term thinking in business and innovation. Johnson discusses how traditional business practices often focus on short-term horizons, while those in academia and technical fields can afford to think on a longer timescale, leading to more significant advancements.
"specific like music whatever yeah there's a funny connection actually to Wonderland my last book which is all about the importance of play and driving innovation and and so much of kind of Hobby work ..."
The Long Now Foundation and Future Decision-Making
Johnson reflects on his experiences with the Long Now Foundation, which encourages thinking about decisions that will impact humanity for thousands of years. He discusses the challenges of making decisions with such long-term consequences, particularly in the context of climate change and superintelligence.
"they're under a different set of incentives well that's I mean one of the one of the great things that I got out of actually deciding to move to California is spending a bunch of time with the folks t..."
Communicating with Aliens: A Long-Term Decision
In this thought-provoking segment, Johnson discusses the controversial project of sending messages to potentially habitable planets. He highlights the complexities and ethical considerations of making decisions that won't yield results for thousands of years, emphasizing the unpredictability of long-term outcomes.
"controversial project and there are a bunch of people including the late Stephen Hawking who think it's terrible idea and if you read the three about your Parliament yeah it's the worst idea everybody..."
The Challenge of Predicting Outcomes
Johnson addresses the inherent difficulties in predicting the future, even in the short term. He emphasizes the importance of developing better decision-making strategies, as some individuals have shown the ability to make more informed choices than simply relying on chance.
"good decision why don't we just sort of let it work itself out in a series of complex little because there's you can't do it you can't really do you can't predict the future I mean we don't know how t..."
The Value of Extremism in Decision-Making
This segment explores the role of extreme viewpoints in decision-making processes. Johnson argues that while mainstream perspectives are essential, incorporating fringe ideas can lead to innovative solutions, as demonstrated by the transformation of the High Line in New York City from an abandoned rail line to a thriving urban park.
"you make the right choice make life right so I have a question - so you talked a little about the Fox and the hedgehogs one of the things you mentioned your book is the role of extreme person vs. main..."
Fringe Voices and the Internet's Diversity
In this segment, Johnson reflects on the role of niche communities and fringe voices in shaping the internet and innovation. He argues that while the internet has its downsides, it has also enabled diverse groups to collaborate and create impactful projects, such as Oculus through crowdfunding, and discusses the challenges of maintaining this diversity in an increasingly centralized digital landscape.
"it's trying to get what I call is the optimal extremism like how do you and it's a tricky one I don't have actually a clear recipe for this but it's I think when you're making a decision are you you k..."
Governance in Decentralized Systems
Johnson explores the concept of governance within decentralized systems, particularly in the context of blockchain technology. He discusses how governance structures are embedded in code, allowing for collective decision-making without a central authority, and raises questions about how these systems can evolve and self-govern in a way that empowers users.
"other people right and and it is an issue that I think a bunch of people are talking about right I mean you see it discussed and when people talk about these issues like demonization D platforming you..."
Innovating Beyond Traditional Models
This segment delves into the differences between software and hardware innovation, with Johnson referencing Marc Andreessen's idea that 'software eats the world.' He discusses the need for new governance models in software development and how these can lead to innovative solutions that address contemporary challenges, moving beyond outdated physical models.
"you know about halfway through it I began to think that some of the blockchain models and some of the token economy stuff that that you've written about as a way of creating sustainable business model..."
Pre-Mortems: A Strategy for Better Decision Making
Johnson introduces the concept of 'pre-mortems' as a technique to combat groupthink in decision-making. He explains how this method encourages teams to envision potential failures before they occur, allowing for a more thorough analysis of risks and better preparation for future challenges, ultimately leading to more informed decisions.
"itself and then the question people are looking at is can you take those that interesting incentives design and can you apply it for things that are more useful than simply solving cryptographic puzzl..."
Risk Assessment in Autonomous Systems
In this segment, Johnson discusses the risk assessment strategies used in autonomous systems, such as self-driving cars. He highlights the importance of creating a 'bad events table' that ranks potential risks by likelihood and impact, suggesting that this approach could enhance decision-making processes in various fields by providing a structured way to evaluate potential negative outcomes.
"have embedded in this code a set of rules governing like what we collectively are going to decide for the future of this platform and that the fact that that's now being built into the software the id..."
Beyond Pros and Cons
Johnson critiques traditional pros and cons lists, suggesting they lack depth in evaluating risks. He advocates for a weighted decision-making approach, where different factors are assigned varying levels of importance. This method allows for a more nuanced understanding of potential outcomes, leading to better decision-making processes.
"magnitude of the of the risk right so two pedestrians die very high magnitude but if it's very low probability you kind of measure it and I think of that as in a sense the car is doing that at the spe..."
Moral Algebra and Decision-Making
The segment explores Benjamin Franklin's concept of 'moral algebra' as a sophisticated method for decision-making. By comparing and contrasting the magnitude of pros and cons, individuals can make more informed choices. This historical perspective highlights the evolution of decision-making techniques and their relevance in today's complex landscape.
"back to this famous letter that Ben Franklin writes to Joseph Priestley who Quin cently was the hero of my book the invention there but he's like explaining this technique he has which is basically a ..."
The Role of Diversity in Decision-Making
Johnson emphasizes the significance of cognitive diversity in decision-making, including the integration of machine intelligence. He discusses how diverse perspectives can enhance creativity and innovation, ultimately leading to better outcomes. This segment highlights the future of decision-making as a collaborative process between humans and machines.
"decision making yeah and I think it's very important to stop and say okay what would the alternate scenarios be what what if it gets better what if it gets worse what if it gets weird and the other th..."
Inclusive Intelligence in Decision-Making
The conversation shifts to the concept of 'inclusive intelligence,' where human and artificial intelligence collaborate in decision-making. Johnson illustrates how this partnership can lead to more effective outcomes, particularly in complex scenarios like legal decisions. This segment underscores the potential of technology to augment human judgment rather than replace it.
"effectively it's not that we want to hand over the process to the machines entirely but the idea that you would be assisted in making a choice like that I think it's gonna be something we'll see more ..."
Openness to Experience and Empathy
Johnson discusses the traits that contribute to effective decision-making, particularly 'openness to experience' and empathy. He connects these traits to the ability to understand diverse perspectives, which is crucial in making informed choices. This segment highlights the psychological aspects of decision-making and their implications for personal and professional growth.
"probably be better for us right it feels like crowd intelligence on a whole different scale yeah were there any qualities of people that you've seen one of the things that you put in the book was that..."
Certainty in Decision-Making
In the final segment, Johnson reflects on the importance of measuring certainty in decision-making, referencing techniques used by influential figures like Jeff Bezos. He advocates for making decisions with a reasonable level of certainty rather than waiting for absolute clarity. This pragmatic approach encourages timely decision-making in the face of uncertainty.
"great and then finally what do you make of all those folks that have like these lists of tips and advice like when they think about like Jeff Bezos does this and Elon must do that I think you might've..."