"Iran has figured out that we can't beat them. We're not weakening Iran. We have strengthened Iran and we can't stop their drone attacks. And what you're seeing is far more chaotic decision-making is h..."

">> And you modeled for 20 years a war with Iran versus the United States. >> That's exactly right. I imagined uh in class for 90 minutes I laid out what a hypothetical bombing campaign of Iran would l..."

">> So when you did this 21 years of modeling these attacks, how did the model show America came out of this situation? >> There was a consistent set of findings you just couldn't ignore, Stephen, whic..."

">> So what is going on now? I want you to help me cut through all of this noise and all of this propaganda. What's going on now is uh we're not weakening Iran in a sense where Iran will be weaker a ye..."

"Secretary of War, Pete Hegsth, did a press conference, and one of the reporters said to him, "There's been a ceasefire announced, but it appears that Iran is still attacking neighboring countries." He..."

">> What do you think happens next? >> We are at a fork in the road. When I was here last time, uh, I was walking you through the three stages of the escalation trap and you kept pushing me, tell me mo..."

">> Explain that to me. So everybody now knows that Iran is uh controlling the straight of form and controlling shipping. That's selective blockade. I'm taking it a step further. That's not just about ..."

">> So what happens next? >> You know, as President Trump wants to do, call the war off. That's not going to put us back to February 27. Iran has 20% of the world's oil. It's going to be able to have u..."

"think the fundamental flawed assumption was at the start of all of this from the United States? >> That Iran was was was weak on its last legs and all we had to do was uh push it over the edge of a cl..."

"response to the last conversation, the the audience had lots of different types of questions. So, I'm going to try and represent some of the audience's questions to try and bring them into the convers..."

">> The other thing that the audience wanted to know is they wanted more specifics on stage three. >> Yes. Yes. >> And is stage three happening? We talked last time about ground troops. It's very impor..."

"like they're going to try and avoid that outcome. It looks like they're doing everything in their power, America, to avoid a scenario where they have to send troops in. The the threats that have come ..."

">> On that point, one of the questions and one of the points raised by the audience last time we had the conversation was really we didn't spend enough time talking about the 90 plus million people th..."

">> This company that I've just invested in is growing like crazy. I want to be the one to tell you about it because I think it's going to create such a huge productivity advantage for you. Whisper Flo..."

"the recent days about a ceasefire and Trump said he was going to he said tweet these horrific things about ending a whole civilization tonight and then at the final hour said that they had proposed a ..."

">> So, I'm looking at this apparent 10-point proposal submitted by Iran. Mhm. Um, and you you got to take this with a pinch of salt because there's different reports about what this 10point proposal l..."

"it so important to be the number one strongest state in the world? It's because in the last 300 years, whether it was Britain, the United States, or whether it's China in the future, the number one st..."

">> So on this point of oil, the US don't get their oil from the straight of Hammoose. >> We don't. But it's a global market and a lot of the uh price of oil that we're going to pay is going to be dete..."

">> So, what should Trump do? Do you think if you were president of the United States, what would you do right now? So when I was here 40 days ago, we had the same question. And what I said was we need..."

">> So presumably in such a scenario, Iran would continue to enrich uranium because they've now had a taste of what can happen to them if they're powerless. >> Well, let me extend this um a little bit ..."

">> So what do you think is going to happen? What I think is that we are going to go back and forth between stage three and stage four for months. >> What's stage three and stage four? >> So stage thre..."

">> You know, every once in a while you come across a product that has such a huge impact on your life that you'd probably describe as a gamecher. And I would say for about 35 to 40% of my team, they w..."

"on this point where you said you don't think Trump would want to be the president that presided over Iran releasing a nuclear weapon. Is that because if he pulled out now they would enrich the uranium..."

">> So the other route that played out in my mind was that Trump would just keep bombing Iran to keep them weak. But again, that doesn't solve the straight of Hammoose problem. >> Doesn't solve the ura..."

">> What do you think happens with Europe? I feel like Europe, you know, Europe aren't on either side of your scale here. You've got Iran, Russia, and China on one end of the scale scale. You've got th..."

">> What is your closing highlevel remark about all this stuff? And I guess I really want to focus it on on the average person who is going about their life as a normal civilian in any of these countri..."