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Annie Jacobsen is an investigative journalist and author of "Nuclear War: A Scenario" and many other books on war, weapons, government secrecy, and national security. Please support this podcast by checking out our sponsors: - HiddenLayer: https://hiddenlayer.com/lex - BetterHelp: https://betterhelp.com/lex to get 10% off - Policygenius: https://policygenius.com/lex - NetSuite: http://netsuite.com/lex to get free product tour TRANSCRIPT: https://lexfridman.com/annie-jacobsen-transcript EPISODE LINKS: Nuclear War: A Scenario (book): https://amzn.to/3THZHfr Annie's Twitter: https://twitter.com/anniejacobsen Annie's Website: https://anniejacobsen.com/ Annie's Books: https://amzn.to/3TGWyMJ Annie's Books (audio): https://adbl.co/49ZnI7c PODCAST INFO: Podcast website: https://lexfridman.com/podcast Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/2lwqZIr Spotify: https://spoti.fi/2nEwCF8 RSS: https://lexfridman.com/feed/podcast/ Full episodes playlist: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLrAXtmErZgOdP_8GztsuKi9nrraNbKKp4 Clips playlist: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLrAXtmErZgOeciFP3CBCIEElOJeitOr41 OUTLINE: 0:00 - Introduction 2:13 - Nuclear war 6:57 - Launch procedure 12:36 - Deterrence 16:09 - Tactical nukes 25:35 - Nuclear submarines 28:35 - Nuclear missiles 35:46 - Nuclear football 44:53 - Missile interceptor system 49:10 - North Korea 55:46 - Nuclear war scenarios 1:04:38 - Warmongers 1:09:06 - President's cognitive ability 1:15:19 - Refusing orders 1:23:17 - Russia and Putin 1:28:23 - Cyberattack 1:29:45 - Ground zero of nuclear war 1:34:24 - Surviving nuclear war 1:38:42 - Nuclear winter 1:49:05 - Alien civilizations 1:54:40 - Extrasensory perception 2:08:25 - Area 51 2:12:23 - UFOs and aliens 2:22:51 - Roswell incident 2:29:30 - CIA assassinations 2:48:23 - Navalny 2:50:48 - KGB 2:57:24 - Hitler and the atomic bomb 3:01:27 - War and human nature 3:04:53 - Hope SOCIAL: - Twitter: https://twitter.com/lexfridman - LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/lexfridman - Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/lexfridman - Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/lexfridman - Medium: https://medium.com/@lexfridman - Reddit: https://reddit.com/r/lexfridman - Support on Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/lexfridman
Annie Jacobsen discusses the staggering potential death toll of a nuclear war between the United States and Russia, estimating it could reach 5 billion people. She emphasizes the horrific details of nuclear war, from immediate casualties to long-term consequences like nuclear winter, and the chilling reality of the sole presidential authority that allows a single person to initiate such a catastrophic event.
"the United States has 1,770 nuclear weapons deployed meaning those weapons could launch in as little as 60 seconds and up to a couple minutes some of them on the bombers might take an hour or so Russi..."
Jacobsen explains the U.S. policy of 'launch on warning,' which allows for a counter-strike in response to a detected nuclear launch. She highlights the terrifying speed at which decisions must be made, with only six minutes to respond, and the implications of this policy on global security and the potential for miscalculation.
"here's Annie Jacobson let's start with a an immensely dark topic nuclear war how many people would a nuclear war between the United States and Russia kill so I'm coming back at you with a very dark an..."
The segment delves into the concept of sole presidential authority in nuclear warfare, where the president can unilaterally decide to launch nuclear weapons without consulting anyone. Jacobsen discusses the historical context and the implications of this power, emphasizing the urgency and gravity of such decisions.
"every Source I interviewed for this book from Secretary of Defense you know all retired nuclear subforce commander stratcom commander FEMA director except on and on and on nuclear weapons Engineers th..."
Jacobsen reflects on the psychological burden of making a nuclear launch decision within a six-minute window. She shares insights from former Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta about the lack of preparedness and understanding among presidents regarding the nuclear threat and their responsibilities.
"nuclear war and that's how I begin the scenario what are the different ways it could start like literally who presses a button and what does it take to press a button so the way it starts is in space ..."
In this segment, Jacobsen discusses the philosophy of nuclear deterrence, which relies on the assumption that no one will launch a nuclear attack. She warns that this assumption could collapse if a nuclear weapon is used, leading to catastrophic consequences for humanity.
"absorb a nuclear attack it will launch nuclear weapons in response before the bomb actually hits so the president as part of the launch on warning policy has 6 minutes I guess can't launch for 6 minut..."
Jacobsen explains the difference between tactical and strategic nuclear weapons, emphasizing the dangers of using tactical nukes in conflict. She highlights the potential for escalation and the devastating consequences of crossing the line into nuclear warfare.
"will unfold so fast only one person can be in charge the president he asks permission of no one not the Secretary of Defense not the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff not the US Congress so built ..."
This segment covers the launch times of nuclear weapons, detailing the phases of missile travel from launch to impact. Jacobsen shares insights from her research on the speed of missile launches and the implications for national security.
"inevitable that it's going to be escalated to a full-on nuclear war that destroys everything and it seems like it it will be it's inevitable in the position of the president it's almost inevitable tha..."
Jacobsen discusses the specific threat posed by North Korea, including the potential for a surprise nuclear attack. She highlights the urgency of understanding the geopolitical landscape and the risks associated with rogue states possessing nuclear capabilities.
"the first people that gets notified by noad or by stratcom or by nro these different parties that all see the early warning data one of the first peoples that's notified is the Secretary of Defense as..."
Annie Jacobsen explains the intricate launch sequence of nuclear missiles, detailing the three phases: boost, midcourse, and terminal. She highlights the alarming speed at which a missile can travel from launch to impact, emphasizing the simplicity and complexity of nuclear warfare. Jacobsen also discusses the implications of a North Korean missile launch, illustrating the urgency and potential devastation of nuclear conflict.
"not necessarily classified but it certainly wasn't out there and I felt like wow herb York left these behind for someone like me to find right and what the process of he wanted to know the answer to y..."
In this segment, Jacobsen reveals the terrifying capabilities of nuclear submarines, which can launch missiles undetected and reach the U.S. East Coast in under 10 minutes. She discusses the second-strike capacity of these submarines and the challenges of tracking them, highlighting their role as a significant threat to national security. The conversation underscores the hidden dangers posed by these stealthy vessels.
"minutes we just don't as a human civilization have experience with that but it doesn't mean it'll never happen it can happen just like that I mean I think what you're after and I couldn't agree more w..."
Jacobsen elaborates on the launch procedures for intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) from silos, noting that they can be launched within a minute of a presidential order. She contrasts this with the launch times of submarines and discusses the implications of these rapid response capabilities. The segment emphasizes the precarious nature of nuclear deterrence and the speed at which decisions must be made.
"know that why do we know that well I found a document inside of a budget um that the defense department was going to Congress for more money recently and showed maps of precisely where these submarine..."
This segment focuses on the role of intelligence agencies, particularly the CIA, in monitoring nuclear capabilities of adversaries like Russia and North Korea. Jacobsen discusses the transparency of U.S. nuclear silos and the challenges posed by mobile launchers used by other nations. She highlights the ongoing developments in nuclear weapon systems and the importance of intelligence in understanding global nuclear threats.
"answers not to ask top secret questions but uh to what degree do you think the Russians know the locations of the silos in the US and vice versa Lex you can you and I can find the location of every Si..."
Jacobsen provides an in-depth look at the 'nuclear football,' the briefcase that contains the launch codes and options for nuclear strikes. She shares anecdotes from Secret Service agents about the protocols surrounding the football, emphasizing its constant presence with the president. The segment reveals the gravity of decision-making in nuclear warfare and the classified nature of the information contained within the football.
"about these Hypersonic weapons well we have a Hypersonic weapons program you know Falcon Google blackswift right this is loeds doing um you know we're DARPA exists to create the vast weapon systems of..."
In this chilling segment, Jacobsen discusses the Doomsday Plane, which is designed to ensure continuity of government during a nuclear crisis. She explains the roles of various command centers and the urgency of response during a nuclear attack. The conversation highlights the complexities of nuclear command and control, as well as the human element involved in making life-and-death decisions under extreme pressure.
"that Satchel but the peed presidential emergency action directives right those have never been leaked no one knows what they are what we do know from one of the mill AIDS who spoke on the record a guy..."
In this segment, Jacobsen critiques the U.S. missile interceptor system, revealing that it consists of only 44 interceptors with a 50% success rate. She contrasts this with the number of Russian nuclear weapons, highlighting the inadequacy of the current defense strategy against a potential nuclear attack.
"happens so again going back to this absurd Paradox nuclear war will never happen you know Mutual assured destruction that is why deterrence will hold well I found a talk that the deputy director of st..."
Jacobsen discusses North Korea's nuclear arsenal, estimating it to be around 50 weapons, and the challenges posed by their lack of transparency. She outlines the fears surrounding a potential North Korean attack and the inadequacies of the U.S. interceptor systems in countering such threats.
"stopped I was at a dinner party with a very informed person right like somebody who really you know should have known this and I this is when I was considering writing and Reporting this book and he s..."
Jacobsen shares insights from her discussions with Pentagon generals about the likelihood of mistakes and false alarms in nuclear scenarios. She recounts a historical close call involving a training tape that nearly led to a nuclear alert, emphasizing the human element in the nuclear command structure.
"atmospheric kill vehicle okay there's no explosives in that thing it's literally just going to take out the Warhead ideally with Force so one of them is going like you know March 20 and the I mean the..."
In this segment, Jacobsen explains the concept of 'escalate to deescalate' in nuclear strategy, where a nuclear response is intended to deter further aggression. She discusses the implications of this strategy and the potential for catastrophic outcomes if communication fails during a crisis.
"this it's an actual fact after 911 Congress considered putting and you know egis missiles and maybe even Thad systems along the west coast of the United States to specifically deal with the threats ag..."
Jacobsen highlights the risks of communication breakdowns during nuclear crises, referencing a recent incident involving a mistaken missile alert. She underscores the importance of reliable communication channels to prevent misunderstandings that could lead to nuclear conflict.
"confirmed all of this as fact this is not this is this is this is the situation right so in the scenario I have the nuclear ICBM coming in the Interceptor missiles try to shoot down the Warhead the ca..."
Annie Jacobsen shares the story of former Secretary of Defense Bill Perry, who experienced a near-miss nuclear alert. She discusses his reflections on the madness of nuclear arsenals and the moral responsibility of those involved in nuclear weapons development.
"at the Pentagon and it was the the the night watch fell on him essentially right and he gets this call in the middle of the night he's told that Russia has launched not just icbms but submarine launch..."
Jacobsen delves into the classified nuclear war gaming scenarios run by the Pentagon, revealing insights from a recently declassified exercise called 'Proud Profit.' She discusses the implications of these scenarios, which consistently end in catastrophic outcomes, reinforcing the dangers of nuclear escalation.
"Perry for example spent his whole life dedicated to building weapons of war only later in life to realize this is madness and he shared with me that it was that idea about one's grandchildren inheriti..."
In this segment, Jacobsen critiques the reliance on deterrence as a strategy for preventing nuclear war. She discusses the historical context of nuclear arsenals and the flawed assumptions that underpin current defense policies, emphasizing the need for a reevaluation of nuclear strategy.
"right in terms of disarmament but there were 60,000 and by the way that was not the ultimate High the ultimate high was 70,000 okay this is insane and Ronald Reagan was President and he orders this wa..."
Jacobsen concludes with a discussion on the existential risks posed by miscommunication in nuclear scenarios. She highlights the potential for catastrophic misunderstandings, particularly in the context of escalating tensions with adversaries like North Korea and Russia.
"the procedure escalates always I mean here's a crazy nomenclature jargon thing for you ready escalate to deescalate that's what comes out of it think about what what I just said escalate to deescalate..."
Jacobsen highlights a specific incident during the Ukraine war where erroneous reports of a Russian missile hitting Poland led to a 36-hour communication breakdown between U.S. military leaders and their Russian counterparts. This example illustrates the dangers of miscommunication in high-stakes situations and raises concerns about the potential for catastrophic misunderstandings during nuclear confrontations.
"our adversary right now that we're sort of saber rattling with just trust us and that is where nuclear war unfolds into Armageddon and that hole in National Security is shocking and as Panetta told me..."
In this segment, Jacobsen discusses the critical role of political advisors during a nuclear crisis. She questions whether current leaders have the wisdom and character necessary to make sound decisions under pressure, especially when faced with the prospect of nuclear war. The conversation touches on the importance of having diverse opinions in the decision-making process and the risks of surrounding oneself with like-minded individuals.
"him how are you going to not have an absolute Armageddon like furer with nuclear weapons in the air if people can't get on the phone during a ground war I I'd like to believe that there's people in ma..."
Jacobsen introduces the concept of 'jamming the president,' where military advisors may push for aggressive counterattacks without considering the broader implications. She emphasizes the urgency of decision-making in nuclear scenarios and the potential for advisors to influence the president's choices in a way that could lead to disastrous outcomes.
"talking about Copans and the more a political leader becomes divisive becomes pmic it the more his platform is predicated on hating the other side either within his own country or with enemy alleged e..."
This segment explores the immense pressure on the president during a nuclear crisis, particularly the six-minute window for decision-making. Jacobsen discusses the psychological burden of making life-and-death choices and the importance of having a leader with strong judgment and cognitive abilities in such critical moments.
"window so it's not exactly like you can let me put a pot of coffee on and really tell me what you think and we can strategize here right you have your SEF and your chairman maybe the vice chairman and..."
Jacobsen poses a provocative question about whether a commander of Stratcom would defy presidential orders in a nuclear scenario. She reflects on the implications of such a decision and the complexities involved in interpreting the president's behavior, especially in times of heightened tension.
"there's also a really interesting term which I learned about called jamming the president which is often understood in Washington that the military advisers would we don't know if this is legit we've ..."
In this segment, Jacobsen discusses historical beliefs about winning nuclear wars, referencing past military leaders who thought it was possible to fight and win despite the catastrophic consequences. She contrasts this with the modern understanding that nuclear war cannot be won, highlighting the evolution of thought surrounding nuclear strategy.
"not if which targets the argument would be about which targets not about if yes I I hope that even the warmongers would uh at this moment because what underlies the idea of you wanting to go to war it..."
Jacobsen emphasizes the importance of cognitive abilities and sound judgment in presidential candidates, particularly regarding nuclear launch decisions. She critiques the current political landscape, questioning the qualifications of leaders and the implications for national security.
"thought and only over time did did the did the kind of concept come into play that no we can we can never have a nuclear war it's the famous gorbachov and Reagan joint statement a nuclear war cannot b..."
This segment focuses on the human aspect of nuclear decision-making, stressing the need for leaders of high character and wisdom. Jacobsen reflects on the historical context of military and intelligence programs designed to prevent nuclear war and the importance of thoughtful leadership in maintaining global security.
"president is uh this scenario that we've been describing these six minutes imagine the man or woman sitting there 6 minutes waiting for the pot of coffee but I think about that issue with with any wit..."
Jacobsen calls for greater citizen involvement in the political process, particularly regarding the selection of leaders who will make critical decisions about nuclear warfare. She stresses the responsibility of the public to understand the implications of their votes and the potential consequences of electing unqualified candidates.
"opinion well uh I agree with you first of all but it feels like when nuclear war one person becomes like exponentially more important with uh regular War the decision to go to war or not advisers star..."
Annie Jacobsen discusses the immense responsibility and psychological burden of making nuclear launch decisions. She emphasizes the importance of public awareness regarding who is entrusted with such critical roles in government, highlighting the potential consequences of untrustworthy leadership in nuclear scenarios.
"situation when the the the the the future of human civilization hangs in the balance I mean it to be the person that says yes launch it's no matter what I just can't see a human being on Earth being a..."
Jacobsen shares her experiences interviewing experts on nuclear weapons, including Al O'Donnell, a member of the Manhattan Project. She reflects on the contrasting perspectives of those involved in nuclear arms development and the growing concern among experts about the risks of nuclear conflict.
"Noels from there also I want to look up who's the commander of stratom now um speaking of which you've interviewed a lot of experts for this book is there uh some commonalities about the way you've ta..."
The conversation shifts to the evolving views of Cold War veterans regarding nuclear weapons. Jacobsen notes a growing movement among former advocates for nuclear arms towards advocating for disarmament, revealing a significant change in mindset about the dangers of nuclear proliferation.
"years because he was an engineer who actually wired nuclear bombs in the 1950s he was a member of the Manhattan Project in 1946 worked on operation Crossroads the first explosions of nuclear bombs aft..."
Jacobsen discusses insights from Russian nuclear expert Pavle Podvig, comparing U.S. and Russian nuclear command structures. She highlights the flaws in Russia's satellite systems and the implications of recent shifts in Russian nuclear policy under Putin, particularly regarding launch protocols.
"central figure in a book I wrote about the cia's paramilitary called surprise kill vanish and W Halo jumped um a tactical nuclear weapon into the Nevada test site with a small team almost unknown to a..."
Exploring Vladimir Putin's background as an intelligence officer, Jacobsen speculates on how his mindset may influence his approach to nuclear weapons. She discusses the potential dangers of paranoia in decision-making and the impact of distrust between Russia and NATO.
"differs perhaps yes well for that you you want to go to The Experts right so in for Russia for example um there's a guy called pavle podvig who is probably the West's top expert on Russian nuclear for..."
Jacobsen addresses concerns about cybersecurity in the context of nuclear command and control. She shares insights from General Tohill, emphasizing the reliance on analog systems that are less vulnerable to hacking, and discusses the potential chaos following a nuclear attack.
"very very dangerous shift in nuclear Russian nuclear policy which is this many Russian experts will tell you that Russia has always maintained that it never had a launch on warning policy now I don't ..."
In a chilling scenario, Jacobsen describes the immediate aftermath of a nuclear strike on Washington, D.C., focusing on the Pentagon as a primary target. She details the catastrophic effects of a nuclear explosion, including the destruction of infrastructure and the human toll.
"the way that you know military men think and it's very different right so Putin's not a military person per se he's an intelligence officer so what con would concern concern me there if I had to guess..."
Jacobsen discusses the grim reality of survival following a nuclear attack, referencing insights from FEMA's Craig Fugate. She highlights the lack of population protection and the desperate fight for resources that would ensue in the wake of widespread devastation.
"and perhaps makes it less likely that the president would pick up the phone and talk to the other president and or that the close advisors near the president would make that happen you were talking ab..."
Exploring the concept of nuclear winter, Jacobsen shares insights from Professor Brian Toon, who discusses the long-term climatic effects of nuclear war. She explains how the aftermath would lead to agricultural collapse and a drastic drop in temperatures, threatening human survival.
"when chaos takes control well let let's talk about it uh so God forbid if a nuclear weapon reaches its Target what happens what uh perhaps you could say what you think would be the first Target hit wo..."
Jacobsen paints a vivid picture of the aftermath of nuclear conflict, detailing the environmental and societal collapse that would follow. She discusses the potential for radiation poisoning and the long-term consequences for humanity, emphasizing the urgency of addressing nuclear threats.
"one Megaton nuclear weapon is 19 football fields of fire think about that nothing remains nothing remains and there's then a radius where people die immediately and then there's people that are dead w..."
Annie Jacobsen discusses the catastrophic consequences of nuclear war, focusing on the concept of nuclear winter. She explains how the aftermath of a nuclear exchange would lead to mega fires, blocking sunlight and causing a dramatic drop in temperatures, resulting in agricultural collapse and widespread extinction. Jacobsen emphasizes the long-term effects on the environment and human survival, drawing parallels to historical extinction events.
"me how the climate models today with the systems we have the computer systems reveal that actually nuclear winter is worse right so to answer your questions the bombs stopped falling in my scenario 72..."
In this segment, Jacobsen reflects on the potential collapse of civilization following a nuclear war. She explores the idea of humanity reverting to a primitive state, where survival instincts take over. Drawing from archaeological insights, she contemplates whether future generations would rebuild society and retain knowledge of past technological advancements, or if they would forget the lessons of history entirely.
"winter you know after the Sun starts to come back let's say 8 nine 10 years um now you have no ozone layer or you have a severely depleted ozone layer and so the sun's rays are now poisonous so you ha..."
Jacobsen shares a poignant story about the oldest known archaeological site, Göbekli Tepe, and its significance in understanding human nature. She connects the concept of a 'wishing tree' to the hopes and desires of ancient peoples, prompting reflections on what modern humans wish for in the face of existential threats like nuclear war. This segment emphasizes the enduring human spirit and the quest for meaning amidst chaos.
"this idea I looked at uh the oldest known archaeological site in the world in Turkey which is called gockley tapy and it's really fascinating to me because I interviewed one of the two archaeologists ..."
Jacobsen and Fridman delve into the philosophical implications of the Great Filter theory regarding alien civilizations. They ponder whether advanced societies inevitably self-destruct, drawing parallels to humanity's potential fate. Jacobsen references astronaut Ed Mitchell's insights on human consciousness and its connection to the universe, suggesting that understanding our inner lives may hold the key to avoiding catastrophic outcomes.
"remember about this time right it is terrifying to think that most of it will be forgotten everything we kind of assume will not be forgotten we think maybe some of the technological developments will..."
In this reflective segment, Jacobsen discusses the relationship between human consciousness and the cosmos. She emphasizes the importance of understanding our existence and the potential for self-destruction. The conversation touches on the need for deeper connections among humans and the pursuit of peace over conflict, highlighting the significance of legacy and the human experience in the face of existential threats.
"stones let me ask you about the great filter when you look up into our galaxy into our universe look up at the sky do you think uh there's other alien civilizations that are contending with some simil..."
Jacobsen reveals the CIA's historical interest in extrasensory perception (ESP) and its connections to military applications. She discusses the origins of these programs post-World War I and how they paralleled the nuclear arms race. This segment explores the complexities of human consciousness and the military's attempts to harness psychic abilities, raising questions about the ethical implications of such investigations.
"near-death experience but a sort of near life experience right where he believed that the human consciousness which is where so much of this thoughtfulness about metaphysics and uh ESP perhaps come fr..."
In this segment, Jacobsen and Fridman discuss the placebo effect and its historical ties to the CIA. Jacobsen shares insights from her research on how the CIA explored the psychological aspects of warfare and the implications of belief on human behavior. This conversation highlights the intersection of science, psychology, and military strategy, revealing the enduring fascination with the power of the mind.
"maybe just in general espb what is it what what do you know of it the book was so interesting to report because I spend so much time dealing with like mechanized systems machines war machines and yet ..."
Annie Jacobsen shares her complex feelings about the CIA, highlighting both the positive aspects of their work, such as aerial reconnaissance programs that helped prevent nuclear war, and the darker side involving paramilitary operations. She emphasizes the importance of understanding the duality of organizations like the CIA, which can engage in both beneficial and harmful activities.
"think he was also at MIT for a bit um he came up with that term and you might even say for the CIA does that trouble you that so much of this is coming from the CIA first you mean the placebo concept ..."
Jacobsen discusses the importance of trust in her work as a journalist, particularly when interviewing sources from the CIA. She reflects on her experiences traveling with a long-serving CIA operator, revealing how personal connections can lead to deeper insights into the lives and sacrifices of those involved in national security.
"that information was King the U2 spy pain was developed out at are at Area 51 and I interviewed hervey Stockman the first man to fly over the Soviet Union in a U2 gathered all this intelligence preven..."
In this segment, Jacobsen recounts a poignant moment with a CIA operative, illustrating the personal sacrifices and emotional weight carried by those in intelligence. She shares a story about a trip to Vietnam, where the operative brought an American flag to honor fallen comrades, showcasing the human element behind the often secretive world of national security.
"that's where it gets conflicted because you in a good way because you realize where we're all such creatures of our personal lives right so you have a professional life where your National Security ar..."
Jacobsen introduces Area 51 as a legendary site shrouded in mystery, discussing its dual reputation as a testing ground for advanced aerospace programs and a rumored site for alien encounters. She emphasizes the intrigue surrounding this top-secret military facility and its historical significance in the context of national security.
"write about war and weapons and National Security and government secrets and the people I interview are at the heart of all of this I mean they are really capable people intellectually brilliant physi..."
In this segment, Jacobsen details the technological advancements developed at Area 51, including the U2 spy plane and the A-12 Oxcart. She shares insights from interviews with pilots and military personnel, highlighting the groundbreaking work conducted in secrecy that has shaped modern intelligence and military capabilities.
"real real what is their real truth you know when I went to Vietnam with Billy w i mean so much of it was the details are just you know every detail right I mean starting with the fact that he he showe..."
Jacobsen addresses the persistent rumors of alien encounters at Area 51, sharing her perspective based on extensive interviews with military and intelligence personnel. She expresses skepticism about the existence of extraterrestrial life, while acknowledging the cultural fascination with UFOs and the role of disinformation in shaping public perception.
"my husband repacked his bag and uh with you know like got him a proper suitcase that was carryable and small and didn't have the hangers you know he wasn't trailing the hangers but it was the it was t..."
In this segment, Jacobsen discusses the CIA's use of strategic deception campaigns, particularly in relation to UFO sightings. She explains how the agency has historically manipulated public perception to divert attention from classified military projects, emphasizing the complexities of truth and belief in the realm of national security.
"people and probably there's a bunch of human details that you can't possibly Express in words things left unspoken but you saw in the silence exchange between the two of you the sadness the the maybe ..."
Jacobsen explores the intersection of intelligence work and UFO narratives, suggesting that many reports of unidentified flying objects may stem from advanced military technology. She highlights the challenges of discerning truth in a landscape filled with misinformation and the implications for public understanding of national security.
"there um what can you describe as the sort of the history of technological development that went on there I mean Area 51 is huge by the way and it's you know it's a secret it's a top secret military f..."
In this segment, Jacobsen reflects on the various theories surrounding alien life and government secrecy. She acknowledges the diversity of opinions within the scientific community, particularly regarding the existence of extraterrestrial intelligence, while maintaining her own skeptical stance based on her research.
"that with such fondness this is like in 2009 when I was reporting that and all many of the guys who were in their 80s and 90s were World War II Heroes like serious World War II Heroes like Colonel Sla..."
Jacobsen discusses the societal implications of belief in UFOs and aliens, emphasizing the psychological and cultural factors that contribute to these narratives. She warns against the dangers of misinformation and the potential for strategic deception to shape public perception of reality.
"passed now yeah so there's there's a lot of incredible technological work going on there so the legend the lore like you said aliens mhm were there ever aliens in Area 51 as you understand it so I've ..."
Annie Jacobsen discusses the strategic deception surrounding UFO sightings and the military's response to them. She argues that the Defense Department's claims of losing control over airspace due to unidentified flying objects are dubious. Jacobsen references her conversations with ufologist Jacques Vallée, who believes the phenomenon is more of an intelligence issue than a military one, leading to a deeper exploration of consciousness and the implications of alien civilizations.
"is this is a very strong argument for why this is a big strategic deception campaign right think about the defense department and the air think about how jealously they guard its airspace right I mean..."
Jacobsen emphasizes the need for radical humility when considering the existence of alien civilizations. She suggests that if aliens exist, they may not conform to our understanding of technology or intelligence. This segment delves into the philosophical implications of consciousness and the potential for alien life to already be among us, challenging our perceptions of reality.
"problem because jacqu believes that this is some kind of intelligence right which really the closest I can do to wrapping my head around that takes me to Consciousness right the idea of what is consci..."
In this segment, Jacobsen reveals her controversial theory regarding the Roswell incident, suggesting it may have been a disinformation campaign orchestrated by Stalin. She discusses her source, a credible nuclear weapons engineer, who provided insights into the alleged black propaganda hoax designed to create chaos in the U.S. This narrative intertwines with historical events and the Cold War's espionage tactics.
"like and it I to me it's beyond military lications it's like the basic human question of like what is even this thing like you mentioned Consciousness that's going on like where does this come from wh..."
Jacobsen shares a shocking revelation from her source, a nuclear weapons engineer involved in secretive government programs. He confessed to participating in experiments that resulted in human casualties, highlighting the ethical dilemmas faced by those in power. This segment underscores the moral complexities of national security and the lengths to which governments may go to maintain secrecy.
"grotesque child siiz Aviator just looking back at all that now years later um what's the probability that it's true what's the probability it's not so you know I've never I've never revealed who that ..."
This segment explores the CIA's covert operations and the ethical implications of assassination as a tool of national security. Jacobsen discusses the historical context of CIA operations, including the infamous 'third option' for dealing with threats. She reflects on the blurred lines between legality and morality in intelligence operations, raising questions about the justification of such actions.
"source told me that the the the reason for this program and that the real Roswell crash remains where in fact it was a a black propaganda hoax infiltrated you know or rather predicated at this idea th..."
Jacobsen explains Title 50, the legal framework that allows the CIA to conduct covert operations, including assassinations. She discusses how this title enables the agency to operate outside the constraints of military law, exemplified by the operation that led to the killing of Osama bin Laden. This segment sheds light on the complexities of legal and ethical considerations in covert actions.
"so it sounds Preposterous and if it was just someone saying I you might say well it's ridiculous tell me and get them onto another subject but the difference was is this Source who is very well-placed..."
In this reflective segment, Jacobsen recounts a conversation with a former operative about the planning of assassination missions. She highlights the operational challenges and moral considerations faced by those involved in such missions, particularly in politically sensitive contexts. This discussion emphasizes the human element behind covert operations and the potential consequences of such actions.
"wow well I uh you received a lot of criticism over this story and it confused me why because it's give in the context of everything you've described with the CIA and other intelligence agencies it is ..."
Annie Jacobsen discusses a covert operation involving a Halo jump to capture Venezuelan leader Hugo Chavez. She shares insights from a legendary operative, Billy W, who reflects on the moral implications of such missions and the potential consequences of their actions on international relations.
"Halo jump in to the palace and grab Chavez and probably kill him because he wouldn't allow himself to be captured and uh you know what Billy and by the way Halo jumping for those of listeners who don'..."
Jacobsen delves into the technical challenges of conducting assassinations on foreign soil. She highlights the importance of reconnaissance and the meticulous planning required to ensure the right target is identified, referencing her conversations with operatives who have firsthand experience.
"the bigger picture that you're asking me about right yeah I think pretty much The Operators I know they just stick to the mission so on the technical difficulty of those missions just your big sense h..."
In a light-hearted yet serious discussion, Jacobsen recounts a hypothetical duel between operatives Billy W and Rick Pra, revealing the mindset of operatives who often resort to cunning strategies to achieve their objectives. This segment illustrates the competitive nature of intelligence work.
"really EOD mugia we're about to kill right um but I once asked Billy when I was trying to get the question you know and he wouldn't answer it and I said so there's another person in my book named Rick..."
Jacobsen emphasizes the significant role women play in special operations, particularly within the CIA's Special Activities Division. She discusses how their unique capabilities can enhance mission effectiveness, challenging traditional perceptions of gender roles in military operations.
"the that's the umbrella agency that has the different paramilitary organizations under it right so the most lethal one is Brown Branch um and that's what I reported on in Surprise kill vanish and its ..."
Jacobsen shares a compelling story about the hunt for Imad Mughniyeh, a notorious terrorist. She illustrates the complexities and dangers of intelligence work, highlighting the lengths operatives go to in order to gather crucial information and execute missions.
"more difficult than you would imagine mhm mhm but perhaps that's the intelligence aspect of it not the actual assassination of locating the person well I think most it's because mostly from what I und..."
In this segment, Jacobsen discusses the CIA's involvement in high-profile assassinations, including the operation that led to Mughniyeh's death. She reflects on the secrecy surrounding these missions and the challenges of attributing credit for successful operations.
"the story right but how we got there was we needed you know the CIA needed confirmation you can't kill the wrong person so the seal panicked according to Billy W and was just like I'm out of here this..."
Jacobsen explores the strengths and weaknesses of various intelligence agencies, including the CIA, MI6, and Russian intelligence. She discusses the challenges of obtaining accurate information and the biases that can influence perceptions of effectiveness.
"with mad and M is dead now that the truth about that being a co- CIA mission was not reported for many years after the fact it was originally mad took credit as the CIA often likes to just give other ..."
Jacobsen explains her journalistic approach to verifying information from intelligence sources. She emphasizes the importance of multiple sourcing and thorough research in constructing credible narratives about national security and intelligence operations.
"information that I'm getting is based on perception of others which one would think would be deeply clouded by the idea that America's the greatest right right right right we're better than them you k..."
Jacobsen discusses the recent events surrounding Alexei Navalny's death in prison, speculating on the possibility of assassination. She draws parallels to historical Russian assassination tactics, providing context for the current geopolitical climate.
"that you said great question I don't know uh not enough people say I don't know and that's a sign of a great journalist uh but speaking about things you might not know about uh let me ask you about so..."
In this segment, Jacobsen contrasts the operational methods of the KGB and CIA, particularly in the context of assassination. She reflects on the historical ruthlessness of Soviet tactics compared to the more restrained approach of American intelligence.
"answers the door and instead of killing him he has like this moment of conscious of Crisis or crisis of conscience and says like I can't kill you even though that's what I'm supposed to do and then si..."
Jacobsen discusses the evolution of surveillance technology and its implications for privacy. She highlights how civilian data sharing has outpaced government surveillance efforts, raising ethical questions about personal data and security.
"Russia I'm far less familiar with modern-day Russian assassination activities although we certainly know on the record you know that they exist some people have done great reporting on that um but the..."
In this segment, Jacobsen elaborates on the capabilities of advanced surveillance technologies and their potential misuse. She discusses the implications of biometric tracking and the ethical dilemmas posed by such invasive monitoring.
"surveillance job for them by all of us sharing our facially recognizable images on Instagram and Facebook and everywhere else X um by sharing information by writing up narratives about ourselves um th..."
Jacobsen reflects on the historical context of the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. She discusses the moral implications of these actions and speculates on the alternate history had Nazi Germany developed nuclear weapons first.
"in drone strike boom if we could uh return to nuclear war you've briefly mentioned that a lot of things go back to the third Rank and Hitler if we go back to World War II we look at Hiroshima and Naga..."
Annie Jacobsen contemplates the future of human civilization in the context of war and conflict. She discusses the potential for humanity to evolve beyond a mindset of violence and the importance of legacy and education for future generations. Jacobsen emphasizes the need to address the growing dangers posed by advanced technologies, including artificial intelligence and autonomous weapons, as humanity navigates the complexities of modern warfare.
"Churchill quote the story of the human race is war except for brief and precarious interludes there has never been peace in the world and before history began murderous Strife was Universal and unendi..."
The conversation concludes with a powerful quote from John F. Kennedy about the dangers of secrecy in a free society. Jacobsen and Fridman reflect on the importance of transparency and the historical opposition to secret societies and proceedings. This segment underscores the need for open dialogue and accountability in governance, especially in matters of national security.
"Annie thank you for being a wonderful example of a great journalist a great writer a great human being and I'm a big fan of yours it's a huge honor to meet you to talk with you today so thank you so m..."