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Why Scale Will Not Solve AGI | Vishal Misra - The a16z Show
Vishal Misra

Why Scale Will Not Solve AGI | Vishal Misra - The a16z Show

Mar 17, 2026

Key Takeaways


Vishal Misra returns to explain his latest research on how LLMs actually work under the hood. He walks through experiments showing that transformers update their predictions in a precise, mathematically predictable way as they process new information, explains why this still doesn't mean they're conscious, and describes what's actually required for AGI: the ability to keep learning after training and the move from pattern matching to understanding cause and effect.

Timestamps
00:00 — Introduction
02:58 — LLM as Giant Matrix
08:24 — What Is In-Context Learning
13:00 — Bayesian Updating as Evidence
19:13 — Bayesian Wind Tunnel Tests
27:22 — Brains Simulate Causality
36:34 — Manifolds and New Representations
42:17 — Simulation as Short Program

Read the full transcript here: https://www.a16z.news/s/podcast

Resources:
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