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Judea Pearl: Correlation and Causation | AI Podcast Clips
4 segments available
Full episode with Judea Pearl (Dec 2019): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pEBI0vF45ic Clips channel (Lex Clips): https://www.youtube.com/lexclips Main channel (Lex Fridman): https://www.youtube.com/lexfridman (more links below) Podcast full episodes playlist: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLrAXtmErZgOdP_8GztsuKi9nrraNbKKp4 Podcasts clips playlist: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLrAXtmErZgOeciFP3CBCIEElOJeitOr41 Podcast website: https://lexfridman.com/ai Podcast on Apple Podcasts (iTunes): https://apple.co/2lwqZIr Podcast on Spotify: https://spoti.fi/2nEwCF8 Podcast RSS: https://lexfridman.com/category/ai/feed/ Judea Pearl is a professor at UCLA and a winner of the Turing Award, that's generally recognized as the Nobel Prize of computing. He is one of the seminal figures in the field of artificial intelligence, computer science, and statistics. He has developed and championed probabilistic approaches to AI, including Bayesian Networks and profound ideas in causality in general. These ideas are important not just for AI, but to our understanding and practice of science. But in the field of AI, the idea of causality, cause and effect, to many, lies at the core of what is currently missing and what must be developed in order to build truly intelligent systems. For this reason, and many others, his work is worth returning to often. Subscribe to this YouTube channel or connect on: - Twitter: https://twitter.com/lexfridman - LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/lexfridman - Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/lexfridman - Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/lexfridman - Medium: https://medium.com/@lexfridman - Support on Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/lexfridman
Segments Timeline
Understanding Correlation
Judea Pearl explains the concept of correlation, emphasizing that correlation does not imply causation. He discusses how correlation is observed when two variables vary together over time and the importance of understanding the underlying causation that may exist. This segment sets the stage for a deeper exploration of how we interpret relationships between variables in statistics and science.
"what is correlation what is it so probability of something happening is something but then there's a bunch of things happening and sometimes they happen together sometimes not they're independent or n..."
Conditional Probability vs. Causation
In this segment, Pearl delves into the distinction between conditional probability and causation. He illustrates how selecting specific conditions can create misleading correlations, using the example of flipping coins. This highlights the flaws in observational studies and the challenges of inferring causation from correlation, a critical point in understanding statistical analysis and scientific research.
"does conditional probability differ from causation so what is conditional probability conditional probability how things vary when one of them a stays the same now staying the same means that I have c..."
The Leap from Correlation to Causation
Pearl discusses the common pitfalls in disciplines like psychology, where researchers often leap from correlation to causation without sufficient evidence. He emphasizes the importance of rigorous experimental design to avoid misleading conclusions. This segment underscores the necessity for careful consideration of variables and the potential for outdated methodologies in psychological research.
"the flows comes if we try to impose causal logic on correlation it doesn't work too well I mean but that's exactly what we do that's what that's has been the majority of science is your reality of of ..."
Historical Perspectives on Causation
In this segment, Judea Pearl reflects on historical experiments, such as the biblical story of Daniel, to illustrate the long-standing quest to understand causation. He notes that while the questions about cause and effect have existed for centuries, the mathematical tools to analyze these relationships were only developed in the 20th century. This highlights the evolution of scientific inquiry and the ongoing challenges in establishing causal relationships.
"psychology you know okay what is the ACM no no I was thinking of Applied Psychology studying uh for example we work with human behavior and semi autonomous vehicles how people behave and you have to c..."