All Segments
a16z Podcast | Centers of Power, War, and History
22 segments available
"When a rising power threatens to displace a ruling power, shit happens." It's true of people, it's true of companies, and it's even more true of countries. It's also the fundamental insight captured by ancient Greek historian Thucydides in his History of The Pelopennesian War. But where he was describing the war between Sparta and Athens, modern historian and political scientist Graham Allison describes how U.S. and China can escape this rising vs. ruling power "Thucydides trap" in his new book, Destined for War. Allison -- advisor on U.S. national security and policy to several secretaries of defense spanning decades -- was former dean of the Kennedy School and most recently Director of Harvard's Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs. Based on an internal policy series lunch speaker event earlier this year (and moderated by a16z partner Matthew Colford), the conversation touches very briefly on centers of power and creativity; tech in China; North Korea; and finally, the role of applying history -- "applied history", much like the field of engineering could be considered applied physics -- to our thinking about the future. By analyzing the analogs and precedents in the historical record, what clues or insights or lessons might we draw? Because business as usual will produce history as usual argues Allison... but only those of us who fail to study history will repeat it.
Segments Timeline
Introduction to Graham Allison
In this segment, the podcast introduces Graham Allison, a prominent political scientist and author of 'Destined for War.' The discussion is moderated by a16z partner Matt Colford and sets the stage for exploring the dynamics of U.S.-China relations through the lens of historical insights.
"hi everyone welcome to the a 6nc podcast today's episode based on an internal lunch series conversation is moderated by a six in Z policy team partner Matt Cole furred and is what the author of the ne..."
Thucydides and the Nature of Power
Graham Allison discusses the historical context provided by Thucydides, the ancient Greek historian, who chronicled the conflict between Athens and Sparta. He highlights the concept that when a rising power threatens to displace a ruling power, conflict becomes inevitable, a theme central to understanding modern geopolitical tensions.
"more about the author political scientist Graham Ellison was Dean of Harvard stron of Kennedy School of Government and is currently the director of the Harvard Belfer Center for Science and Internatio..."
The Rise of Athens and Its Implications
Allison elaborates on the rise of Athens and the fear it instilled in Sparta, which he argues made war inevitable. He draws parallels between ancient conflicts and contemporary issues, emphasizing how historical insights can inform our understanding of current U.S.-China relations.
"about people who have institutional knowledge particularly at the Defense Department there's really nobody who equals Graham we're really here to talk about your new book about the state of the us-chi..."
Lessons from History: The Thucydides Trap
In this segment, Allison introduces the concept of the 'Thucydides Trap' as a framework for analyzing the U.S.-China relationship. He discusses historical precedents where rising powers have threatened established ones, noting that in 12 out of 16 cases, this led to war, underscoring the importance of studying history to avoid repeating past mistakes.
"just to remember that the Persians were ruling the area though Sparta was the main power on in Greece Sparta was the ultimate Marsh culture kids at four or determined whether they're strong enough if ..."
Comparing U.S.-China and U.S.-India Relations
Allison contrasts the U.S.-China relationship with that of the U.S.-India relationship, highlighting the unique risks posed by China's rapid rise. He discusses the perception that China is a more significant threat to U.S. dominance in Asia compared to India, which does not aspire to displace the U.S. as a predominant power.
"war so in this book I take this insight Thucydides trap to try to illuminate what's happening in the relationship between the US and China by particular on the canvas of history so I look at the last ..."
China's Economic Ascendancy
Allison discusses China's economic growth and its implications for global power dynamics. He emphasizes the importance of purchasing power parity as a measure of economic strength, noting that by this metric, China is currently the largest economy in the world, which has significant geopolitical ramifications.
"that it actually doesn't mention that it is pushing up against us everywhere I've had the benefit of a couple of great tutors including my old professor Henry Kissinger and Lee Kuan Yew the founder of..."
Innovation and Technology in China
In this segment, Allison highlights the technological advancements in China, contrasting them with the U.S. He discusses how Chinese companies like Alibaba and WeChat are leading in innovation, challenging the narrative that China merely copies U.S. technology, and emphasizes the need for the U.S. to recognize and adapt to these changes.
"if you look at $0.10 or at the Alibaba or at Baidu or at the Weibo you see I've been actually Phoebus compared in terms of market cap what's happened in the last in this year Vincent and Alibaba are b..."
The Pivot to Asia: Challenges and Missed Opportunities
Allison reflects on the Obama administration's pivot to Asia, discussing the challenges it faced due to ongoing conflicts in the Middle East. He critiques the lack of focus on Asia in U.S. foreign policy during that time and emphasizes the importance of prioritizing relationships with Asian powers, particularly in light of China's rise.
"pave a narrow alley Alibaba pay there's a bridge it does between the Harvard Business School and the Kennedy schools across the Charles River is called the Anderson bridge the reconstruction this brid..."
China's Economic Influence in Asia
The conversation shifts to China's growing economic power and its influence over neighboring countries. The speaker uses the seesaw analogy to illustrate the balance of power between the U.S. and China, emphasizing how China's economic relationships dictate the behavior of countries like the Philippines and Norway, showcasing the strategic use of economic leverage.
"great point in the book that the administration was really fully intending on recenter in Asia as a priority in their foreign policy but that you know fighting two wars in Iraq and Afghanistan not to ..."
The Asian Infrastructure Bank
In this segment, the discussion focuses on China's establishment of the Asian Infrastructure Bank as a response to dissatisfaction with existing global financial institutions like the World Bank. The speaker explains the concept of 'transitional friction' where rising powers create their own systems when feeling constrained, highlighting the implications for global governance and economic order.
"the Chinese would not only have economic power but they exercised economic power so when the Philippines behaves in a way they don't like they say I think you're bananas that you're importing the Chin..."
The U.S. and China's Competing Economic Systems
This segment explores the competitive dynamics between the U.S. and China regarding their respective economic systems. The speaker discusses China's push for greater representation in global financial institutions and the U.S.'s reluctance to accommodate these changes, leading to the establishment of alternative systems by China, which could reshape global economic governance.
"political order or security order that order included the World Bank that gives development loans for countries trying to develop and importantly the IMF the international monetary system that basical..."
Lessons from the Cold War
The speaker draws parallels between the current U.S.-China relationship and the historical context of the Cold War. They discuss how the Cold War was characterized by competition in various dimensions, excluding direct military conflict, and question whether a similar covert cold war is emerging between the U.S. and China today.
"when they could have done the Obama administration but we said no no we're not doing it Oh Chinese say that's fine we'll set up our own system so now for for development loans the Chinese Development ..."
Strategies for Global Leadership
In this segment, the speaker reflects on the strategic initiatives developed by the U.S. post-World War II that led to a stable international order. They emphasize the importance of innovative strategies in addressing global challenges and the need for a proactive approach to maintain leadership in the face of rising powers like China.
"war with China already let me say just a word about what was the Cold War for world war ii was the most devastating war ever 50 million people killed in April of 1946 the number two person in the US E..."
Cyber Cold War Dynamics
The conversation concludes with a discussion on the emerging cyber cold war between the U.S. and China. The speaker highlights the similarities in the competitive aspirations of both nations and the implications of cyber warfare on international relations, suggesting that this new front could redefine global power dynamics.
"Germany and Italy who are just killing our guys 18 months ago do you think what forget about it I mean imagine a president or a presidential candidate said I have a good idea now climate is a big deal..."
Historical Parallels: Teddy Roosevelt and Xi Jinping
This segment draws intriguing parallels between Xi Jinping and U.S. President Teddy Roosevelt, focusing on their respective nationalistic ambitions. Allison discusses how both leaders embody a sense of manifest destiny for their nations, with Xi's narrative rooted in historical grievances against Western powers. The conversation highlights the role of historical context in shaping current geopolitical strategies.
"the greatest differences - so first what is the slogan for President Trump or just campaign make America great again well four years before that five years before that she's in pain became president o..."
The North Korean Factor in U.S.-China Relations
Allison addresses the North Korean situation as a critical element in the U.S.-China dynamic. He explains how the rising power of China and the ruling power of the U.S. create a precarious balance, with North Korea's nuclear ambitions adding to the tension. This segment emphasizes the unpredictability of international relations and the potential for miscalculations leading to conflict.
"will say well they're doing a good job in you know well I'm doing in the Trump case you see a expression of you know nationalism that's basically rejecting the system that was there but the similariti..."
Lessons from History: The Path to Conflict
In this segment, Allison reflects on historical events leading to conflict, using World War I as a case study. He discusses how misunderstandings and miscalculations among nations can escalate tensions, drawing parallels to the current U.S.-China relationship. The segment underscores the importance of learning from history to avoid repeating past mistakes, particularly in the context of rising powers and potential conflicts.
"with Germany and then with Britain about a territorial dispute in Venezuela where they're trying to settle the dispute then we sponsor a coup in Colombia and create a whole new country Panama which th..."
North Korea's Nuclear Threat
Allison addresses the ongoing nuclear threat posed by North Korea, tracing its development through various U.S. administrations. He contrasts the diplomatic approaches taken and emphasizes the complexity of resolving such international issues, particularly in the context of U.S.-China relations.
"one thing lead to the other in edgemon north korea has built nuclear weapons they have tested missiles that can deliver these nuclear weapons that's the train coming down track number one this story h..."
China's Perspective on International Order
Allison explores the fundamental differences between Western and Chinese conceptions of international order. He explains how China's hierarchical view contrasts with the Western emphasis on balance and equilibrium, shedding light on the challenges of diplomatic negotiations.
"problem but we say wait a minute we didn't choose to be there we only came there but try to help South Korea from being incorporated in part of this Stalinist North Korean regime now South Korea has b..."
The Hierarchical Nature of Chinese Order
In this segment, Allison delves deeper into the Chinese worldview, rooted in Confucianism, where social order is based on hierarchy. He discusses the implications of this perspective for international relations and how it shapes China's interactions with other nations.
"the top of the pyramid and as we said earlier the term China even in Mandarin means center of the universe and it connects the universe to heaven and everybody else is subordinate to us so that the an..."
Cultural Diplomacy: A Unique Encounter
Allison recounts a memorable moment during a summit involving President Trump and Chinese leaders, highlighting the cultural significance of a song performed by Trump's granddaughter. This anecdote illustrates the complexities of diplomacy and the importance of cultural understanding.
"there was a moment that Trump pulled off at the very lack of summit where she's in pain and his wife arrived and Chinese were terrified to what was Trump gonna do they like scripted events he's he lik..."
The Case for Applied History
Allison advocates for the establishment of a White House Council of Historical Advisors, proposing that applied history can provide valuable insights for contemporary challenges. He argues for the relevance of historical analysis in informing policy decisions and preventing future conflicts.
"note I want to ask one more question within the book you mentioned this idea that you've been kicking around to establish the White House Council of historical advisors which would essentially be simi..."