
60 segments available
Dan McMurtrie is the Portfolio Manager at Tyro Partners, an asset management firm for institutions and HNWIs; and the General Partner at Anchorless Bangladesh, an early stage venture fund focused on Bangladeshi startups. Links: - Dan’s Twitter: (https://twitter.com/SuperMugatu) - Tyro Partners: (https://www.tyropartners.com/) - Anchorless Bangladesh: (https://www.anchorless.vc/) - Coolworks: Jobs in Great Places: (https://www.coolworks.com/) Show Notes: - Are we in the schadenfreude part of the market cycle? - Going back to the fundamentals - Solving the agency problem - Taking concentrated beta risk - Having clarity around your goals - The behavioural risk in investing - Do not get married to your investment thesis - It’s always you vs. you - Investing is about understanding other people's mistakes - Societal costs of stablecoins being unstable - Compatibility of social media and representative democracy - Issues with the current US Govt. administration - Number one existential risk for US currently - Risks of information overload - Improving education about commerce - Dopamine manipulators - Leadership vs. Stakeholder management - America vs China for policy changes - US legal immigration system - And MUCH more!
Dan McMurtrie discusses the current state of market mispricings, attributing them largely to agency costs. He emphasizes that many stocks are mispriced not because they are revolutionary, but simply because they are solid businesses that are currently undervalued. This segment highlights the importance of recognizing these opportunities amidst market chaos.
"i think the question is how much pain needs to happen in the middle i i have a framework for you know we do look at fundamentals but i think that the majority of mispricings that exist in markets now ..."
In this segment, Jim O'Shaughnessy introduces the concept of the emotional cycle in markets, referencing the classic chart that outlines phases from fear to acceptance. Dan McMurtrie reflects on the current market sentiment, suggesting we are in a phase of fear and panic, and discusses the implications of retail investors giving back profits from speculative excess.
"over time and you know and that's all there is to it there's no greater pitch to it hi i'm jim o'shaughnessy and welcome to infinite loops sometimes we get caught up in what feel like infinite loops w..."
Dan McMurtrie elaborates on how agency costs are influencing market dynamics. He explains that many investors are struggling to return to fundamental investing principles due to a shattered framework from previous market behaviors. This segment underscores the challenges investors face in regaining confidence in traditional valuation methods.
"we hope to offer our listeners a fresh perspective on a variety of issues and look at them through a multi-faceted lens including history philosophy art science linguistics and yes also through quanti..."
In this insightful discussion, Dan McMurtrie addresses the importance of having a solid investment framework. He critiques the current trend where investors abandon frameworks altogether after experiencing losses, leading to a lack of intellectual rigor in investment decisions. This segment emphasizes the need for a return to disciplined investing based on cash flows and valuations.
"podcast guests are solely their own opinions and do not reflect the opinions of o'shaughnessy asset management this podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon as a basis ..."
Dan McMurtrie shares his perspective on navigating market volatility and the challenges faced by investors. He discusses how even fundamentally sound investments can suffer due to broader market flows and sentiment. This segment highlights the complexities of maintaining a value-oriented strategy in a turbulent market environment.
"he the guy who blew it when i was going to do a debut show with ramp capital and super mugatu who doxed himself a week before we even did the recording and yet they tell me here all of the minions are..."
In this segment, Dan McMurtrie warns against the dangers of schadenfreude in the investment community. He explains how mocking others' failures can distract investors from focusing on their own strategies and opportunities. This discussion serves as a reminder of the psychological challenges investors face during downturns.
"once and i was unwanted as an anonymous uh talking head and then i think i came on during covet so thank you for having me back and more importantly thank you to your staff why to bribe liberally to g..."
Dan McMurtrie emphasizes the importance of maintaining focus on one's investment strategy amidst market noise. He argues that successful investing requires ignoring distractions and concentrating on identifying value opportunities. This segment provides valuable insights into the mindset needed for effective investing.
"don't invest in what they like uh with the phrase have fun staying poor like is is this the is this the schadenfreude part of of the market story or where are we i think there's that classic chart tha..."
Dan McMurtrie discusses the agency problems that plague the investment landscape, particularly how they affect capital allocation. He highlights the challenges faced by funds that have not been able to raise capital due to market conditions, leading to inefficiencies. This segment sheds light on the structural issues within the market.
"shot in freud right now and there's just a lot of losses and one of the things that we're discussing a lot internally is the difference between impairment and and volatility and you know i think that ..."
In this segment, Dan McMurtrie speculates on the future of value investing as market dynamics shift. He discusses the need for a resurgence of value-oriented strategies and the potential for new opportunities as the market corrects itself. This discussion is crucial for understanding the evolving landscape of investment strategies.
"spoke earlier this year and you were asking me about what i thought of fundamentals i said i think fundamentals are mostly fine but this this attitude in the market and what people are describing to m..."
Dan McMurtrie discusses the psychological challenges investors face, particularly the fear of being the 'butt of the joke' in market cycles. He emphasizes the importance of understanding market narratives and how they can mislead investors if they forget the fundamental principle that price leads narrative.
"then you've just missed out on a lot of games over many years and now you're going to mock your way through not making any gains now and you're seeing it kind of all over the place um so we're really ..."
McMurtrie explores the agency problems in investment management, highlighting the difficulties faced by institutional investors in maintaining consistent strategies over time. He notes that effective family offices often create networks of expertise to mitigate these issues, but larger institutions struggle with stakeholder management and turnover.
"conference call with them and i was telling them about the particular strategy that they were interested in and then one guy on their committee basically said first to the group but then asked me to a..."
In this segment, McMurtrie reflects on the challenges of implementing long-term investment strategies within large institutions. He discusses the importance of having a clear investment process and the difficulties posed by frequent staff turnover, which can hinder effective decision-making over multiple market cycles.
"problem is so there are a handful of very sophisticated family offices and if you look at some of them are deliberately doing this and some of them do this just out of instinct but what they do is the..."
McMurtrie shares insights on the value of consistency in investment management, citing historical performance data that shows successful managers adhere to a well-defined investment process. He emphasizes that while past performance is not indicative of future results, a disciplined approach can yield significant long-term benefits.
"um and so this really really really limits their ability to actually implement a plan um on a multi-cycle basis i mean it's incredible not it's probably not surprising to you but if you go back to let..."
This segment delves into the behavioral risks that investors face, particularly during market fluctuations. McMurtrie discusses how emotional responses can lead to poor decision-making, urging investors to maintain clarity about their goals and strategies, especially during downturns.
"multiple phd dissertations well yeah i remember like 1997 i was talking to the guy who would later be ceo and you know we were really close i invest in this deal and it turns out he knows everything a..."
McMurtrie highlights the need for honest communication between money managers and investors. He argues that many investment firms are not structured to optimize for returns alone, and that fostering open discussions about goals and decision-making frameworks can help align interests and improve outcomes.
"it has appeared that just taking highly concentrated beta risk was the best approach and so you had a lot of people we had people come to us and say shut your funds down and just start a new fund and ..."
In this segment, McMurtrie addresses the complexities of managing stakeholder expectations in large institutions. He discusses the challenges of justifying investment performance to stakeholders who may not understand the inherent risks involved, particularly in relation to endowment funds and their performance against benchmarks.
"but if everybody was everybody had an ability to have more honest conversations you could solve some of the problems but i do think that this momentum effect on agency is really really hard to overcom..."
McMurtrie discusses the concept of risk in investment, contrasting 'if risk' versus 'when risk' strategies. He emphasizes the importance of understanding the timing of investments and the psychological barriers that can prevent investors from making sound decisions during market downturns.
"interchangeable based on the risk return but as we talked about end of last year early this year i thought that if risk was priced at a level that just didn't make a whole lot of sense because you had..."
In this segment, McMurtrie reflects on the cyclical nature of markets and the unrealistic return expectations that investors often have. He stresses the importance of patience and long-term thinking in achieving substantial returns, while also acknowledging the behavioral tendencies that can lead to poor investment choices.
"thinking about the behavioral path risk of what we're doing and so when you have a framework or something you're doing really fail and especially in a public way especially in a way you have to justif..."
McMurtrie shares insights from historical investment practices, highlighting the significance of a well-articulated investment process. He recounts findings from a report on pension fund managers that revealed the common traits of successful managers, emphasizing the need for discipline and adherence to established strategies.
"uh essentially um people would you know the the entire report of whatever manager was managing your pension money would be um a statement of assets owned and and that was kind of it there was no uh di..."
In this concluding segment, McMurtrie discusses the emotional impact of investment outcomes on individuals, particularly in family settings. He reflects on the challenges of separating personal identity from investment performance and the importance of maintaining a rational perspective in the face of market volatility.
"slavishly uh stuck to um and the only thing i might say as far as the you're never sexy true however like in years when when like we have momentum stuff for example and uh 1999 was a vintage year for ..."
In this segment, McMurtrie shares insights from his early experiences on Twitter and the investment community. He highlights the prevalence of investors who become overly attached to their investment theses, often leading to poor decision-making. The discussion underscores the importance of adaptability and the risks of letting ego dictate investment choices.
"um but when you see it in people that you know and love i can't even imagine trying to do it in in a less or in a more uh formal environment where you don't even know the people that you're talking to..."
McMurtrie emphasizes that successful investing is about understanding the mistakes of others rather than just identifying good investments. He critiques the common belief in market efficiency and discusses how personal biases often lead to significant losses. This segment encourages investors to focus on learning from failures rather than chasing trends.
"talk about the markets being competitive or the markets being efficient i don't really buy into that as a thesis at all i think that you beat you 99 plus percent of the time um we try to keep very det..."
In this segment, McMurtrie reflects on the misconceptions surrounding stock investments. He compares the diligence people apply when purchasing tangible goods to the impulsive decisions made in the stock market. This discussion highlights the need for a more serious approach to investing and the dangers of treating it like a game.
"i never pitched that stock along to anybody are you without me 900 bases my position in my fund i don't know what you're talking about and i've gotten very good at using that uh you know it's very val..."
McMurtrie shares his belief that investing is a learned skill often shaped by painful experiences. He discusses how personal hardships can lead to better decision-making in investing. This segment emphasizes the importance of self-awareness and understanding one's own limitations in the investment landscape.
"i know what everybody else is too and i i don't want to you know have some i you know i don't want to have somebody else make an irresponsible decision because they respect me for some reason and then..."
In this segment, McMurtrie explores the challenges of educating new investors about the complexities of the market. He discusses the need for better education on base rates and the historical context of investing. This conversation highlights the difficulties in changing ingrained behaviors and biases among investors.
"and um we on the one hand like i i love the uh the idea of democratizing investing in terms of getting more people to actually be honest to goodness long-term investors et cetera for the future but th..."
McMurtrie argues that many successful investors learn from observing the mistakes of others. He discusses how personal experiences shape investment strategies and the importance of understanding market dynamics. This segment emphasizes the value of learning from past failures to improve future investment decisions.
"credible way to and this this is a tough question um to to get people to both understand and respect this i the lynch thing about buy what you know i don't know whether i agree so much with that it's ..."
In this segment, McMurtrie reflects on the complexities of investing and the various factors that influence decision-making. He discusses the importance of understanding compounding and the dangers of seeking high-risk investments. This conversation highlights the need for a balanced approach to investing, focusing on steady growth rather than chasing quick wins.
"um but i think that there has to be a lot of self-knowledge in order for you to be able to learn that's really the main thing if you're not self-aware um you're not going to be able to realize you kno..."
McMurtrie discusses the rise of younger investors and their approach to the market. He acknowledges the potential for both positive learning experiences and significant mistakes among new investors. This segment emphasizes the importance of education and awareness in navigating the complexities of modern investing, particularly in the context of emerging trends like cryptocurrency.
"a magnifying glass for every type of human folly that can exist i mean it's one of the reasons why i love markets and can't imagine anything else is it is the market is a factory that just mass produc..."
In this segment, McMurtrie reflects on the narrative that the stock market is a scam, particularly following events like the GameStop saga. He discusses how losses can lead to a loss of framing for investors, resulting in anger and poor decision-making, especially among those risking money they cannot afford to lose.
"lot of people from investing in real things for a very long period of time there's gonna be a lot of people um i mean we go back to the gamestop and amc saga and the popular narrative essentially was ..."
McMurtrie shares insights from a study on investment behaviors, suggesting that up to 40% of investment failures may be genetic and not easily educated against. He grapples with the challenge of discussing potential scams in investing without inciting hostility from those who may disagree.
"things where you know i probably should have said something right but it's like if you if you premeditate what happens if you say like oh that's a scam or you know that looks an awful lot like what po..."
Exploring memetic theory, McMurtrie discusses how societal behaviors influence market dynamics. He emphasizes the difficulty of being heard during market insanity and the importance of recognizing when the majority may be misled, drawing parallels to historical market behaviors.
"i just wonder you know i was i was looking at um tim urban on twitter did a thing actually i think you retweeted i think that's how i saw it uh about um you know the the orange mines and everybody all..."
McMurtrie critiques the current regulatory landscape, noting how asset managers can make statements that would have previously led to legal consequences. He questions whether the U.S. is approaching a more stringent regulatory framework or if current practices will continue to exploit vulnerabilities in the system.
"i just think it's a fascinating societal question because you mentioned regulatory failure absolutely i mean i have seen asset managers saying things that when i was younger when i was your age defini..."
In this segment, McMurtrie discusses the overwhelming amount of information in today's media landscape and its impact on democracy. He highlights concerns about how noise can drown out important signals, referencing a conversation between President Xi and President Biden regarding the U.S. system's ability to respond to crises.
"i do do a good amount of that um my concern right now is a few years ago we wrote a letter and we were talking about if you looked at uh the evening news on cable the headlines they were 80 percent wh..."
McMurtrie warns of impending supply crises in essential resources like oil and gas, criticizing the government's lack of coordinated action. He emphasizes the need for immediate investment in foundational infrastructure to prevent future shortages and the dangers of ignoring these issues due to political distractions.
"and we have you know two-year election cycles um plus state specific stuff and we have immense amounts of money moving into um government hands and um you know it's it there's a lot of talk about the ..."
In this concluding segment, McMurtrie reflects on the disconnect between government policy and the realities of market conditions. He expresses concern over the administration's ability to prioritize critical issues and the potential consequences of ignoring foundational economic needs in favor of political narratives.
"and we we are we are fighting about uh just completely irrelevant issues um and population so that that's the most scary thing to me right now in the united states is the inability of our governmental..."
In this segment, McMurtrie explores the concept of agency frictions in government decision-making. He questions whether decisions are made based on rational analysis or merely to adhere to past guidelines and political pressures. The discussion highlights the challenges of navigating complex political landscapes and the potential consequences of short-term thinking in governance.
"actually is happening in the world but i do understand how it relates to what people were talking about six months ago or 12 months ago and so again it's these agency frictions where you have to ask y..."
McMurtrie articulates the existential risks facing the U.S. due to its inability to manage crises effectively. He likens the current state of governance to a call center overwhelmed by an influx of issues, suggesting that society is entering a phase of constant crisis. This segment underscores the importance of effective leadership and decision-making in times of chaos.
"that is the number one existential risk for this country right now is that if our system just cannot handle it's like i almost think about like a call center a call center might be able to handle 50 c..."
This segment delves into the effects of information overload on mental health, with McMurtrie referencing Claude Shannon's theories on information theory. He discusses how the brain's inability to filter excessive stimuli can lead to mental health issues, drawing connections between elevated dopamine sensitivity and the current mental health crisis in society.
"because in order for somebody to stay in office and maintain their ability to make the correct long-term decision they may have to make a short-term dumb decision which then creates these weird non-li..."
McMurtrie proposes innovative solutions to societal challenges, including the idea of jury systems that bring together diverse perspectives to solve problems. He emphasizes the need for practical approaches to address the complexities of modern issues, advocating for a focus on tangible commerce education over abstract financial theories.
"went very very bad a la rome uh or went very very good when when uh some ex existential uh crisis and or event forced uh rethinking if you will of the underlying basic premise of how you're approachin..."
In this segment, McMurtrie discusses the impact of technology on human behavior, particularly how dopamine manipulators in social media and online platforms affect mental health. He argues that these platforms are designed to exploit human psychology, leading to increased sensitivity to dopamine and contributing to the mental health crisis.
"warren buffett and jury systems are really interesting in that when you put people from very different backgrounds together in a room and you give them the problem um they're unusually good at solving..."
McMurtrie contrasts leadership with stakeholder management, emphasizing the importance of decisive leadership in times of crisis. He argues that true leaders make tough decisions that may not always be popular, while stakeholder managers react to immediate pressures. This segment highlights the need for strong leadership to navigate complex societal challenges.
"right and and that is sort of the uh that is sort of the mantra of anyone who believes that we will continue to generate new knowledge we will continue to generate innovation but the innovation or kno..."
This segment focuses on the necessity of teaching commerce fundamentals to foster financial literacy. McMurtrie argues that understanding basic business principles is crucial for success, especially for aspiring entrepreneurs. He advocates for a shift in educational priorities to emphasize practical commerce knowledge over abstract investment strategies.
"in that case the way i think about it is a lot of people have a hard time focusing and the answer to that often is pain um if these problems we're dealing with do not abate soon they are going to get ..."
McMurtrie reflects on the dual nature of technological advancements, acknowledging both their potential benefits and the new challenges they create. He emphasizes the need for society to adapt to these changes and to find innovative solutions to emerging problems, maintaining a rational optimism about the future.
"statement is understanding the basic building blocks of what a business is bill ackman actually did a great youtube video a long time ago i think it's a big think or something if remember and it's 20 ..."
In this concluding segment, McMurtrie discusses the inevitable pain associated with societal change and innovation. He draws on historical perspectives to illustrate how crises can lead to significant transformations, emphasizing that while challenges are daunting, they also present opportunities for growth and improvement.
"you know i think that what technology is broadly doing right now we we have these verticals we define where we cover stocks by so some of them are things like trucking or manufactured housing or liver..."
Dan McMurtrie discusses the critical distinction between leadership and stakeholder management. He emphasizes that true leaders make tough decisions that may initially seem unpopular, while stakeholder managers often react to immediate issues without a strategic vision. This segment highlights the importance of strong leadership in times of uncertainty and the risks of a reactive approach.
"move for the tribe and we're all going to go with it and people grumble and then you know great leaders of the people where people go you know he was right she was right um we we all thought it was du..."
In this segment, McMurtrie reflects on the cyclical nature of faith in leadership and governance. He draws parallels between historical leadership crises and current societal sentiments, suggesting that a loss of faith can lead to extreme political shifts. The discussion underscores the need for effective leadership to navigate these turbulent times.
"and generally you know last year everybody's making a lot of money everybody felt really good everybody really felt that they had a voice about everything and you know burn the financial system down w..."
McMurtrie shares insights on historical leadership failures, particularly referencing Jimmy Carter's presidency. He discusses how poor communication and a lack of confidence can lead to significant political shifts, emphasizing the importance of effective messaging and leadership during crises.
"wow yeah they i love the bit about the difference between a leader and a stakeholder manager i think you are bang on um and what we are bereft of right now is true leadership and because you're absolu..."
This segment explores the consequences of humiliating nations and individuals in political contexts. McMurtrie argues that humiliation can lead to dangerous outcomes, referencing historical events that resulted from such actions. He stresses the importance of understanding human psychology in governance and the potential repercussions of political decisions.
"when when people lose faith i i remember i was young at the tail end of the 70s and we were in a position much like that uh that we are now then and essentially it was these combinations of things and..."
McMurtrie discusses the transformative effect of social media on political discourse, contrasting it with past communication methods. He highlights how the rapid spread of opinions can lead to confusion and misinformation, emphasizing the need for critical thinking in the digital age.
"why did woodrow wilson want to see germany just in abject poverty after world war one because he was a moralist and he wanted to teach them a lesson they they had behaved badly and and that just set u..."
In this segment, McMurtrie critiques the current governmental response to economic challenges, arguing for more proactive fiscal policies. He discusses the potential for significant investment in infrastructure and immigration reform as solutions to pressing economic issues.
"um and i think you've uncovered why i called this show infinite loops there we go go ahead yeah and and that's that's that's i think the difference um this time around uh is is just the the the veloci..."
McMurtrie highlights the urgent need for reform in the U.S. immigration system, pointing out the absurdities faced by skilled immigrants. He argues that addressing legal immigration could significantly benefit the economy and society, emphasizing the importance of attracting talent.
"like go bang policies changing with some notable exceptions so normally there will start to be kind of opinion pieces that look like they're independent thought you know somebody in the party council ..."
This segment focuses on the notion that many societal problems are solvable with the right approach and resources. McMurtrie expresses optimism about the potential for government action to address these issues effectively, contrasting it with the urgency felt during the COVID-19 pandemic.
"you know they were talking about there's a news story i read the other day that was really funny where it was saying you know it would take five billion dollars to start up this refinery to like produ..."
McMurtrie reflects on the rapid innovation seen during the COVID-19 vaccine development, discussing how it challenges preconceived notions about government capabilities. He emphasizes the importance of recognizing and harnessing this potential for future challenges.
"which is just reform the legal immigration system i think we both know people who've gone through that and as and as i talked to my friends who are going through that i it's like a monty python bit it..."
In this closing segment, McMurtrie shares insights into the inner workings of government and large organizations. He discusses the challenges faced by these institutions and the need for transparency and adaptability in addressing public concerns.
"the vaccine and i mean i i've done a lot of biotech investing and i watched that happen and i i was like there's no way there's no way this would be the the base rate the base rate's insane here this ..."
Dan McMurtrie discusses the often hidden complexities within large corporations and government institutions, likening them to a machine held together by 'duct tape and bubble gum.' He emphasizes the challenges faced by these organizations when exposed to public scrutiny and the difficulties of functioning under constant feedback, drawing parallels to athletes' experiences with media attention.
"or you or you work there it's not pretty inside uh especially at the early stages i mean we see these large corporations and everything looks it looks like this well-oiled machine but for the governme..."
McMurtrie argues that many societal issues we face today are solvable and that the lack of urgency in addressing them stems from a subconscious belief that solutions are within reach. He contrasts this with the urgency felt during the COVID-19 crisis, suggesting that the government has the means to resolve these issues with a single bill.
"reason we haven't addressed many of the problems that we're dealing with right now is because at some level i think subconsciously everybody knows we can solve them so there isn't the urgency right we..."
The conversation shifts to the potential of emerging markets, particularly through the Anchorless Bangladesh fund. McMurtrie expresses excitement about the opportunities available in these regions, highlighting the need for greater attention to the incredible prospects that exist beyond conventional markets.
"i think you know what i'll have yeah if you want to keep going no one can out talk you dad not even me [Laughter] you must be more irish than i am i don't know i'm 80 what what are you i think i'm onl..."
McMurtrie shares his vision of incepting a global mindset where individuals travel to vastly different cultures to foster understanding and collaboration. He advocates for immersive experiences that reveal the similarities among people worldwide, emphasizing the importance of personal connections over superficial interactions.
"i'm i'm now going to wave my wand and make you emperor of the world and you can't put anyone in a re-education camp and you can't kill anybody but give me give me the two things that you are going to ..."
In this segment, McMurtrie discusses the importance of engaging with differing opinions on social media. He encourages listeners to reach out and have conversations with those they disagree with, emphasizing that understanding different perspectives can lead to greater empathy and reduce the tendency to assume malice in others.
"um or do the military or do uh or do uh the peace corps or something like that um that would be one and then um you know the second one um i think that with everybody on social media i think people ar..."
The discussion wraps up with McMurtrie highlighting the transformative power of travel and real-world experiences. He shares resources for young people to find opportunities to work abroad, reinforcing the idea that such experiences can lead to personal growth and a deeper understanding of global perspectives.
"stressed than is ever been possible before um and uh you know and i really try to encourage people to try to try to put on blinders and force yourself into that first category even if it means you kno..."