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FTX, Hedge Funds and the Value Spread | Cliff Asness | Episode 142

FTX, Hedge Funds and the Value Spread | Cliff Asness | Episode 142

38 segments available

Cliff Asness is the Founder, Managing Principal and Chief Investment Officer at AQR Capital Management. Prior to co-founding AQR Capital Management, he was a Managing Director and Director of Quantitative Research for the Asset Management Division of Goldman, Sachs & Co. Cliff joins the show to discuss FTX, AMC , why hedge funds aren’t hedging, the role of index funds and a whole lot more. Important Links: - Cliff’s Twitter - https://twitter.com/cliffordasness - Cliff’s Blog - https://www.aqr.com/Insights/Perspectives - AQR Capital Management - https://www.aqr.com/About-Us/OurFirm/Cliff-Asness-Bio - Do Hedge Funds Hedge - https://www.aqr.com/Insights/Research/Journal-Article/Do-Hedge-Funds-Hedge Show Notes: [00:01:16] - Main Podcast [00:02:18] - Cliff’s take on FTX and crypto [00:11:38] - The AMC saga [00:24:32] - HODL and the MOASS [00:29:05] - Finding the right media format for substantive investment conversations [00:34:36] - Thoughts on the value spread [00:40:35] - “We don’t want a world where markets are perfect” [00:46:38] - Hedge funds aren’t hedging [00:53:42] - The role of index funds [01:00:49] - Never override a model [01:06:01] - “Study statistics and stick to your principles”

Segments Timeline

1
0:00 - 1:14
1:14 duration192 words

Investment Decisions: The Danger of Stories

Cliff Asness warns against making investment decisions based on sensational stories or trends. He emphasizes the importance of understanding market dynamics and the role of hedge funds in correcting market inefficiencies. Asness argues that true hedge funds should focus on making money on the spread rather than simply betting on market movements.

"I'm going to tell you a series of stories about why you shouldn't make investment decisions on stories anything that goes up a bajillion gazillion percent in the last 10 years attracts a lot of uh und..."

2
1:16 - 2:15
0:59 duration175 words

Introducing Cliff Asness: A Quantitative Pioneer

Jim O'Shaughnessy introduces Cliff Asness, the founder and CIO of AQR Capital Management, highlighting his significant contributions to quantitative finance. The conversation sets the stage for discussing current market events, particularly the FTX situation, and the broader implications for investors.

"well hello everyone it's Jim O'Shaughnessy with another infinite loops and today I must tell you I I have one of my Quant Heroes as my guest I have Cliff asness founder CIO of aqr Capital Management o..."

3
2:18 - 7:12
4:53 duration840 words

FTX and the Crypto Controversy

Cliff Asness shares his insights on the FTX scandal and the broader implications for the cryptocurrency market. He discusses the nature of crypto, the potential for scams during market bubbles, and the challenges of understanding this asset class, especially for older investors. Asness emphasizes the need for caution and skepticism in the crypto space.

"don't really have other than an independent Observer Viewpoint into this but like what the is going on with FTX and Sam whatever bankman why is he not behind bars in your opinion oh well I'm gonna gue..."

4
7:12 - 9:02
1:50 duration324 words

Incompetence vs. Criminality in Finance

Asness explores the fine line between incompetence and criminality in financial scandals like FTX. He reflects on the potential for ignorance in financial management and the implications of negligence versus intentional wrongdoing. This segment raises important questions about accountability in the finance industry.

"crypto world and again this is not a shot at crypto in particular anything that goes up a bajillion gazillion percent in the last 10 years attracts a lot of the underbelly um so you know and I'm still..."

5
9:02 - 10:14
1:11 duration223 words

The Fiduciary Mindset in Investing

Cliff Asness discusses the fiduciary mindset that guides his investment philosophy. He emphasizes the importance of understanding risk and making informed decisions based on quantitative analysis rather than speculation. This segment highlights the challenges faced by investors in navigating complex markets.

"like both of us like I've been a fiduciary for more than 35 years and you have I don't know if you're as long in 10 years I'm close but the algorithms in our brain are run by a fiduciary mindset yeah ..."

6
10:14 - 12:22
2:08 duration374 words

The AMC Saga: Insights from CNBC

Asness recounts his experience discussing AMC on CNBC, highlighting the challenges of communicating quantitative investment strategies to a broader audience. He reflects on the misconceptions surrounding stock picking and the importance of understanding market dynamics rather than focusing solely on individual stocks.

"that's one thing all investors should know totally agree and I put it in the same so we exited that hedge fund it's a fun story because I first written it off because the first month came back and I'd..."

7
14:08 - 15:18
1:10 duration240 words

The Challenge of Naming Stocks

Cliff Asness humorously discusses the difficulty of naming specific stocks as a quant investor. He explains that while quants have high conviction in their trading strategies, they often have low conviction in individual stock names. Asness shares his experience on a TV show where he was challenged to name stocks, emphasizing that the names he provided were merely indicative and not definitive recommendations.

"which they are no neither do I absolutely and I have I always joke quants are high conviction Traders on the whole process particularly if given enough time we're very low conviction on any individual..."

8
15:18 - 16:43
1:25 duration287 words

The AMC Short Position

In this segment, Cliff Asness reveals his short position on AMC, the movie theater chain, during a TV appearance. He outlines the reasons for his bearish stance, citing poor earnings, high valuation metrics, and low quality measures. Asness humorously reflects on the backlash he received from AMC supporters, highlighting the challenges of discussing low-conviction positions in a volatile market.

"remember exactly what I said but they did that they let me do that but of course I asked my team to put together you know give me five Longs and five shorts that that and here's probably where I got i..."

9
16:43 - 18:00
1:16 duration233 words

The Backlash from AMC Supporters

Cliff Asness recounts the intense backlash he faced from AMC supporters after discussing his short position. He reflects on the aggressive responses he received on social media, illustrating the emotional investment many have in the stock. Asness shares his perspective on the irrationality of the market and the challenges of being a messenger of unpopular truths.

"account I was quoting it was like a 12 basis point short right so I literally I think I actually said 12 basis points short and here's where I made my fatal era and I admit this sounds really challeng..."

10
18:00 - 19:03
1:02 duration195 words

Understanding the Cult-like Following

Asness delves into the cult-like mentality surrounding AMC and its supporters. He discusses the irrational beliefs and extreme reactions from the community, comparing it to apocalyptic cults that predict inevitable outcomes. This segment highlights the challenges of engaging with such fervent supporters and the emotional toll it can take on investors.

"which and now you have to roll into the fact that very much against my better instincts and the instincts of all the grown-ups at my farm of which I'm not one of I'm active on Twitter right and I've a..."

11
19:03 - 20:28
1:25 duration254 words

The Role of Social Media in Investing

Cliff Asness reflects on the impact of social media on investing discussions, particularly in the context of AMC. He shares his experiences with Twitter, acknowledging the challenges of engaging with both reasonable inquiries and extreme reactions. Asness emphasizes the importance of maintaining a level-headed approach in the face of online criticism.

"be fair to be honest really gross and nasty really fast I had no idea what this world was like I had watched from 2021 the Melvin Capital stuff with with GameStop and and a few others like you know we..."

12
20:28 - 21:54
1:26 duration284 words

The Misconceptions of Short Selling

In this segment, Asness addresses misconceptions surrounding short selling, particularly in relation to AMC. He clarifies his position on the stock and discusses the broader implications of short selling in the market. Asness emphasizes the importance of understanding the fundamentals behind investments rather than succumbing to emotional reactions.

"Enemy Number One is Ken Griffin of course it started out where they think he's the one who told Robin Hood to take away the buy button on a certain day I don't think my personal opinion I have no know..."

13
21:54 - 23:39
1:44 duration310 words

Navigating the Financial Narrative

Cliff Asness discusses the complexities of navigating the financial narrative surrounding stocks like AMC. He reflects on the challenges of communicating investment strategies in a landscape filled with misinformation and emotional responses. Asness highlights the importance of sticking to fundamental analysis and avoiding the noise of social media.

"it's obvious again they find these crazy things on the internet at one point they wrote that a Ken Griffin's firm Citadel lost I forget the number I call it a hundred quadrillion dollars and what they..."

14
23:39 - 25:03
1:23 duration241 words

Investing with Conviction

Asness shares his insights on the importance of conviction in investing, particularly when faced with market volatility. He discusses the balance between holding onto investments and recognizing when to pivot. This segment emphasizes the need for a disciplined approach to investing, grounded in research and analysis.

"it was just silly why do you know why do I invest in this company someone will say and this is maybe 50 times because I love movies and I would respond because I you know I'm occasionally sarcastic th..."

15
25:03 - 26:28
1:25 duration236 words

The Mother of All Short Squeezes

Cliff Asness introduces the concept of the 'Mother of All Short Squeezes' (MOASS) and its implications for investors. He discusses the cult-like mentality surrounding this phenomenon and the unrealistic expectations some investors have. Asness reflects on the challenges of predicting market movements and the importance of rational analysis.

"success in investing at times you know if you go back to the beginning of my career I probably would have said Mo all of investing successes this would have been arrogant is about being clever or smar..."

16
26:28 - 27:40
1:11 duration193 words

The Emotional Toll of Investing

In this segment, Asness discusses the emotional toll that investing can take on individuals, particularly when their financial well-being is at stake. He shares anecdotes about the pressures investors face and the importance of maintaining a rational perspective. Asness emphasizes the need for emotional resilience in the face of market challenges.

"apocalyptic cult whenever it doesn't happen because they do say they'll find things I've never heard of the options for the on the AMC expire three Tuesdays from now it had to happen at that point we ..."

17
27:40 - 29:03
1:23 duration249 words

The Evolution of Financial Media

Cliff Asness reflects on the evolution of financial media and its impact on investment discussions. He contrasts the past, where longer, more substantive conversations were common, with the current fast-paced, sensationalized format. Asness emphasizes the need for thoughtful dialogue in the financial space.

"no this is partly what keeps bringing me back is first there's the general fintuit Community there are a lot of very Earnest good people trying to figure things out having great conversations you lear..."

18
29:05 - 30:47
1:41 duration279 words

The Shift in Financial Media Formats

Asness reflects on the evolution of financial media, contrasting his earlier experiences on CNBC with the current trend towards sound bites. He laments the loss of in-depth discussions that allowed portfolio managers to explain their strategies, emphasizing the need for longer formats to convey complex investment ideas effectively.

"I appreciate that I appreciate that I think you know to to shift it a little bit to CNBC Bloomberg Etc I owe a ton of My Career Success to those guys back in the day when I was on CNBC seemingly every..."

19
30:47 - 32:20
1:33 duration301 words

The Demand for Long-Form Investment Content

Cliff Asness discusses the bifurcation in media consumption, highlighting a growing appetite for long-form investment content. He argues that platforms like YouTube and podcasts are filling the gap left by traditional financial media, providing a space for deeper discussions that cater to serious investors seeking nuanced insights.

"stopped going oh and the soundbite you can get a trade recommendation out if you're a stock picker and for us once that's just like are you kidding me it's like okay here's what I want you to buy and ..."

20
32:20 - 34:01
1:41 duration289 words

The Challenge of Educating Investors

Asness expresses his frustration with the difficulties of educating investors in a fast-paced market. He emphasizes the importance of providing nuanced information and context, particularly when discussing investment strategies and market conditions, to help investors avoid being misled.

"with me it's like I always want to acknowledge listen my career got a huge Boost from journalists at TV journalists The Wall Street Journal Barons I owe it tremendous amount to them have a great deal ..."

21
34:01 - 35:16
1:14 duration199 words

Understanding Value Spread in Investments

Cliff Asness delves into the concept of value spread, discussing the historical context of cheap versus expensive investments. He shares insights on how current market conditions reflect a significant spread, urging investors to consider value opportunities amidst prevailing market trends.

"really drives me crazy when I see them being taken advantage of and but like there it's very difficult unless it's a long form unless you can like kind of give the nuance and this is why it take the e..."

22
35:16 - 37:01
1:44 duration321 words

The Impact of Zero Interest Rates

Asness analyzes the long-term effects of zero interest rates on market valuations and investment behavior. He warns that the consequences of prolonged low rates will take time to unwind, emphasizing the need for investors to remain patient and informed as market corrections unfold.

"clients who had been with us from the my first company O'Shaughnessy Capital Management which morphed into you know anyway I go down he stopped I walk into his office my my head of intermediary sales ..."

23
37:01 - 38:41
1:39 duration280 words

The Nature of Market Irrationality

Cliff Asness reflects on the irrationality of markets, acknowledging that while he recognizes the potential for bubbles, he also understands the complexities of investing during such periods. He discusses the importance of maintaining a long-term perspective and the challenges of navigating market volatility.

"still expensive versus history and and the value spread as we measure it the spread between cheap and expensive for those who are interested it's well down from its coveted eyes but it's not way off o..."

24
38:41 - 39:59
1:18 duration218 words

The Role of Mistakes in Investing

Asness shares a personal anecdote about the importance of recognizing mistakes in investing. He emphasizes that while investors should learn from errors, they must also understand that market dynamics can lead to irrational behavior, making it crucial to stay grounded in evidence-based strategies.

"get very local about it they're like this incredibly painful year and I won't deny that for the markets in general but they have this initial this immediate reaction like oh it's such a terrible year ..."

25
39:59 - 42:26
2:26 duration420 words

The Paradox of Market Perfection

Cliff Asness discusses the paradox of market perfection, arguing that while imperfect markets create opportunities for investment professionals, they also lead to frustration. He reflects on the societal role of investors in correcting market inefficiencies and the inherent challenges that come with it.

"two years he was very kind to me I wrote a dissertation on price momentum something you knew about at the time but academics didn't saying that it's actually effective and he was good about that still..."

26
42:26 - 44:23
1:57 duration373 words

The Future of Value Investing

Asness contemplates the future of value investing, sharing his hopes and concerns about market trends. He humorously imagines a conversation with his children about investment strategies, highlighting the generational differences in understanding market dynamics and the ongoing relevance of value principles.

"jumping dumping the rational for the irrational as many do and some days they'll tell you you can't predict when this will turn around I and I'm sure you've said the same no but I can predict with a s..."

27
44:05 - 45:20
1:14 duration236 words

Correlation and Value Investing

In this segment, Asness analyzes the correlation between his investment strategies and value investing over time. He discusses the historical performance of value funds and the challenges faced during market bubbles, emphasizing the importance of understanding market dynamics and the limitations of traditional value metrics.

"I had this nightmare fantasy about being like a dinner one night and one of my kids saying so that's how value thing still not working huh and and me think what and then and then one of them being lik..."

28
45:20 - 46:39
1:18 duration237 words

The Storytelling Nature of Investing

Cliff Asness reflects on the narrative-driven approach to investing, acknowledging that while data and statistics are crucial, human emotions and stories often influence investment decisions. He discusses the need for quants to balance empirical analysis with the storytelling aspect of finance, highlighting the complexities of investor psychology.

"our Lives occasionally we put on our value Superman suits and go fight the battles yeah and ours regresses the same way we've looked at it and again you know it's part of the challenge for we quants r..."

29
46:39 - 48:02
1:23 duration266 words

The Hedge Fund Identity Crisis

Asness addresses the identity of hedge funds in the current market landscape, discussing the expectations versus the reality of hedge fund performance. He critiques the industry for often failing to hedge effectively and emphasizes the importance of transparency regarding correlation and beta in hedge fund strategies.

"written a lot about this and I have personal experience with this when I was starting out and got my first big client it was a a wonderful family where he was a gold prospector and saltabeer sold his ..."

30
48:02 - 49:40
1:38 duration309 words

Understanding Hedge Fund Performance

In this segment, Asness elaborates on the performance metrics of hedge funds, discussing the average betas and correlations with the stock market. He emphasizes the need for investors to understand the underlying dynamics of hedge fund returns and the challenges of achieving true alpha in a bull market.

"gotta tell you something man yeah you got to turn yourself into a hedge fund and I'm like but like you know I why and he's like dude like the alpha that you're generating over here you should just you..."

31
49:40 - 50:57
1:16 duration246 words

The Evolution of Hedge Fund Research

Asness reflects on the evolution of hedge fund research over the years, sharing insights from a pivotal paper he wrote on whether hedge funds truly hedge. He discusses the challenges of data collection and the implications of his findings for the hedge fund industry, highlighting the importance of rigorous analysis.

"I'm sure you have some of these I'm sure you have many of these I do where the outer sample period is considerably longer now than the in Sample period that we had for the paper that'll make you feel ..."

32
50:57 - 52:41
1:44 duration350 words

Industry Reactions to Critical Research

Cliff Asness recounts the backlash he faced from prominent hedge fund managers after publishing his critical research on hedge fund performance. He shares anecdotes about the reactions he received, illustrating the tension between innovation in investment strategies and traditional industry practices.

"not help but if someone owns micro cap stocks that trade every six weeks it does help and you could show that the betas were actually somewhat higher higher base means lower Alpha if it's been a bull ..."

33
52:41 - 54:01
1:19 duration248 words

The Right Path for Investors

In this segment, Asness discusses the importance of finding the right investment path for different types of investors. He advocates for low-cost index funds for the average investor while emphasizing the value of active management for those who can engage with the complexities of the market.

"um who came out I think he came out of the Goldman mergers group they if you did a taxonomy of where people in hedge fund started there was Tiger that was there it was Commodities Corp there was some ..."

34
54:01 - 55:28
1:27 duration280 words

Index Funds vs. Active Management

Asness debates the merits of index funds versus active management, addressing criticisms of index funds as free riders in the market. He argues that while active management has its place, the average investor benefits significantly from low-cost indexing, reinforcing the need for a balanced approach to investing.

"it's if you for most people honestly I tell them buy and eat a really low cost ETF Global in your 401k keep adding to it you'll do great yeah I was once speaking to a conference and someone asked me w..."

35
55:28 - 57:47
2:18 duration403 words

Jack Bogle's Legacy and Indexing

Cliff Asness shares a conversation he had with Jack Bogle about the future of indexing and its role in the investment landscape. He reflects on Bogle's insights regarding the proportion of investors who can successfully index, highlighting the ongoing relevance of Bogle's philosophy in today's market.

"but there was it's got a big splash because it said index funds were worse than Marxism and Eddie I appreciated that someone thought Marxism wasn't that great it's nice that's not always what you read..."

36
58:00 - 1:01:00
2:59 duration501 words

Pride in Following Models

Cliff Asness expresses his pride in never overriding a model throughout his career. He recounts a conversation with a colleague during the financial crisis, emphasizing the importance of sticking to principles and models even during challenging times, and the psychological challenges that come with it.

"was trying to get John Neff who many listeners or viewers won't even know who he is legendary value manager and a wonderful gentleman I went down there to have lunch with him and just what a wonderful..."

37
1:01:00 - 1:02:27
1:26 duration269 words

Evolving Without Overriding

Cliff and his co-host discuss the distinction between evolving investment strategies and overriding models in response to market pressures. They emphasize the importance of research-driven changes rather than emotional reactions to short-term performance, advocating for a disciplined approach to investment.

"and like I learned from the guy who's now the head of all research and Senior portfolio manager and my co-cio like he he told me after the great financial crisis he goes hey Jim do you remember during..."

38
1:02:27 - 1:05:00
2:32 duration453 words

The Importance of Statistics

In a light-hearted conclusion, Cliff shares his two key pieces of advice for the world: to study statistics and stick to one's principles. He reflects on the significance of statistical knowledge in making informed investment decisions and the value of maintaining a disciplined approach.

"the same wavelength here not overriding a model is not equivalent to not changing and evolving oh come on absolutely absolutely we evolved forever I have told people one of the hardest things is as we..."