
37 segments available
Ray Dalio is an investor, author, and founder of Bridgewater Associates. Please support this podcast by checking out our sponsors: - Athletic Greens: https://athleticgreens.com/lex and use code LEX to get 1 month of fish oil - GiveWell: https://www.givewell.org/ and use code LEX to get donation matched up to $1k - Magic Spoon: https://magicspoon.com/lex and use code LEX to get $5 off - Blinkist: https://blinkist.com/lex and use code LEX to get 25% off premium - MasterClass: https://masterclass.com/lex to get 15% off EPISODE LINKS: Ray's Twitter: https://twitter.com/RayDalio Ray's Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/raydalio Books & resources mentioned: Ray's books: https://amzn.to/3swN5uw Ray's free personality test: https://principlesyou.com/ PODCAST INFO: Podcast website: https://lexfridman.com/podcast Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/2lwqZIr Spotify: https://spoti.fi/2nEwCF8 RSS: https://lexfridman.com/feed/podcast/ Full episodes playlist: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLrAXtmErZgOdP_8GztsuKi9nrraNbKKp4 Clips playlist: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLrAXtmErZgOeciFP3CBCIEElOJeitOr41 OUTLINE: 0:00 - Introduction 0:42 - Money or power 4:18 - Big Cycle 24:11 - Collapse of the American Empire 32:38 - War 35:45 - Xi Jinping 41:49 - Importance of freedoms 47:52 - Democracy's vulnerability 51:17 - Communism's vulnerability 58:18 - Vladimir Putin 1:02:23 - Understanding China 1:09:51 - Henry Kissinger 1:13:24 - Bitcoin 1:20:12 - Elon Musk and Dogecoin 1:22:09 - How to take notes 1:25:52 - Advice for young people 1:29:58 - Hope for humanity SOCIAL: - Twitter: https://twitter.com/lexfridman - LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/lexfridman - Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/lexfridman - Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/lexfridman - Medium: https://medium.com/@lexfridman - Reddit: https://reddit.com/r/lexfridman - Support on Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/lexfridman
In this segment, Lex Fridman introduces Ray Dalio, a legendary investor and founder of Bridgewater Associates. Dalio discusses his influential books, including 'Principles' and 'Principles for Dealing with a Changing World Order,' which explores the geopolitics of today through historical lenses, particularly focusing on the dynamics between the U.S. and China.
"the following is a conversation with ray dalio his second time on the podcast he is a legendary investor founder of bridgewater associates author of a book i highly recommend called principles and als..."
Ray Dalio delves into the relationship between money and power, explaining how they are interconnected and often compete with each other. He illustrates this dynamic through historical examples, highlighting how those with financial resources can influence political power and vice versa.
"when you look at the history of the world as you have done in your new book principles of dealing with the changing world order what is more important more impactful money or power they go hand in han..."
Dalio discusses the historical evolution of power dynamics, particularly during the 16th and 17th centuries. He explains how the rise of nation-states changed the landscape of power, with a focus on the relationships between royal families, nobility, and the church, and how these dynamics have shifted over time.
"um and and so you see this throughout history this symbiotic relationship you know um for example between um the royal families the nobility and the church so you see that group of people supporting e..."
In this segment, Dalio introduces the concept of the 'big cycle' that governs the rise and fall of empires. He outlines the three critical cycles: long-term debt and capital market cycles, internal order and disorder cycles, and external order and disorder cycles, explaining their significance in shaping nations and their economies.
"anymore but you still see the same dynamic you see those with money dealing with those who have political power around those assets that are considered most valuable to particularly the productive ass..."
Dalio reflects on the establishment of the world order after World War II, particularly the Bretton Woods system. He discusses how the U.S. emerged as a dominant power and the implications of this new order on global governance, including the roles of the United Nations, World Bank, and IMF.
"the coordination of those that determines how the country is run you write that the quote archetypal big cycle governs the rising and declining empires and influences everything about them including t..."
Dalio explains the historical significance of capitalism since the 1500s, detailing how it has been a powerful tool for wealth creation. He discusses the transition from agriculture to industrialization and how this shift has led to wealth and opportunity gaps in society.
"order so that the united nations was in new york the world bank and the imf were in washington and they built that new order so classically you have a war to determine whose rules we're following and ..."
In this segment, Dalio emphasizes the importance of education in fostering innovation and prosperity. He discusses how education contributes to societal civility and the ability to work together, which are crucial for a nation's success in a competitive global landscape.
"built that prosperity in that process of doing that they create wealth gaps naturally those who make a lot of money make a lot more and than those that don't and it also produces opportunity gaps beca..."
Dalio outlines the cycle of decline that empires often face, including the accumulation of debt, internal conflict, and the challenges posed by rival powers. He uses historical examples to illustrate how these factors can lead to significant changes in the world order.
"expensive um and and newer countries come along like um the uk um then uh be learned to build ships from a lot the dutch and could do that less expensively and also when they become more expensive so ..."
Dalio discusses the importance of using objective measures to assess the health of nations and empires. He highlights the 18 measures he includes in his book, which allow for a quantitative analysis of a country's strength and stability over time.
"and to you the dutch empire is a good example that the british what are some of the key examples that you think about in the book of this process that follow the big cycle well the leading reserve cur..."
In this segment, Dalio compares the current financial and internal conditions of the U.S. and China. He discusses the implications of debt levels, economic competitiveness, and internal conflicts, providing insights into how these factors may influence future global dynamics.
"that shows the picture of where we are today and i think one of the most important things about the book is that it allows people to monitor how those things are transpiring i think for policy makers ..."
Ray Dalio discusses the precarious financial position of the United States, highlighting the negative real returns on dollar-denominated bonds and the Federal Reserve's dilemma between raising interest rates or monetizing debt. He contrasts this with China's stronger balance of payments and its position as the world's largest trading country, emphasizing the risks associated with the U.S. maintaining its status as the world's reserve currency.
"dollar denominated bonds because as the world's reserve currency they sell sold on them and they have very bad returns negative real returns negative real returns significantly and so on so that um me..."
Dalio examines the internal conflicts within the United States and China, noting that while the U.S. faces significant internal strife, China's more autocratic governance allows for less internal conflict. He discusses how political and economic bifurcation in China contributes to its economic prosperity, while the U.S. struggles with its internal order and conflict.
"but i'll get into some of the other ones too right now um there's a lot of internal conflict in the united states uh which affects its and um how well it works um in china there's less internal confli..."
In this segment, Dalio emphasizes the critical role of education as a leading indicator of a nation's success. He discusses the importance of broad-based education and meritocracy, drawing parallels with historical Chinese dynasties. Dalio argues that a well-educated populace fosters social stability and economic competitiveness, while the U.S. is losing its educational advantage compared to China.
"also there are different types of conflict uh competition which makes things makes everything better is is a productive conflict whereas destructive conflicts are not good over the short time so you k..."
Dalio highlights the deterioration of public education in the United States, comparing it unfavorably to China's rapidly improving education system. He acknowledges the U.S.'s continued strength in higher education but warns that the overall decline in educational quality could jeopardize its future competitiveness and prosperity.
"but education is not just uh education in understanding facts and so on it is education and um civility of how to behave together and so if they're smart they understand how to be productive because t..."
In this segment, Dalio discusses the technological race between the U.S. and China, noting that while the U.S. has historically led in technology, China is rapidly catching up. He emphasizes the importance of innovation and the need for the U.S. to maintain its technological edge to ensure future economic stability and competitiveness.
"if you were to look at the american nation the american empire and the trajectory is looking into the future given these measures what is the trajectory that leads to the collapse of the american empi..."
Dalio explains the challenges of reversing the decline in key indicators such as education and financial health in the U.S. He discusses the political incentives that encourage borrowing and spending without addressing underlying debt issues, highlighting the difficulties new leaders face in managing inherited problems.
"um but um it's sort of along the lines that i'm i'm dealing with if you were to follow through in terms of um actual productions i i think uh you you know in terms of technologies um there are some ar..."
Dalio stresses the importance of strong leadership in addressing the systemic issues facing the U.S. He advocates for bipartisan cooperation to tackle major challenges, such as investing in education and innovation, to ensure broad-based prosperity and prevent further decline.
"care of itself but you make it sound simple of course because there's a momentum when things degrade when the education system degrades when you start borrowing when um i mean all of these indicators ..."
Dalio outlines the various types of potential conflicts between the U.S. and China, including trade, technology, and military tensions. He highlights the Taiwan issue as a significant flashpoint and discusses the implications of these conflicts for global stability and the future of U.S.-China relations.
"whatever they do if they do it that way i can say i'm happy about because that other alternative is the really scary alternative the the scary alternative the different ways it has evolved throughout ..."
Dalio analyzes Xi Jinping's rise to power and his approach to economic reform in China. He highlights the shift towards a market economy, the challenges of corruption, and the establishment of a vibrant capital market. Dalio also discusses the implications of Xi's leadership style and the centralization of power within the Chinese government.
"have the competition between those other kinds of wars and whoever is strongest in those areas will um win where do you put cyber war within the five well cyber war is a military war i'm assuming the ..."
In this segment, Dalio explores the tension between economic growth and individual freedoms in China. He contrasts the collectivist approach of the Chinese government with the individualism prevalent in the United States, discussing how this affects entrepreneurship and innovation. Dalio emphasizes the importance of finding a balance between state control and personal liberties.
"that the property developers had to live within and that is then causing the adjustments that are going on now which in my view are very healthy because um whenever there's uh bankruptcies and so on t..."
Dalio reflects on the vulnerabilities inherent in democratic systems, particularly in the context of internal conflict and populism. He draws parallels between historical instances of democracies turning to autocracy during crises and the current political climate in the United States, highlighting the risks of losing faith in electoral processes and the potential for chaos.
"for society well they have a view which is the idea of a dialectic which means that two things are at obvious that everything comes with pros and cons and two opposites exist and you want the benefits..."
In this concluding segment, Dalio discusses the vulnerabilities of communist systems, using historical examples like the Soviet Union. He examines the challenges faced by such regimes in maintaining control and stability, particularly in the face of internal dissent and economic pressures.
"so the kind of the trend that started in 2020 this or i mean i mean i suppose it's been there it's been growing a rep one representation of this internal disorder has been the growing trend of being s..."
In this segment, Dalio contrasts the vulnerabilities of democratic systems with those of autocratic regimes, such as China. He argues that autocratic systems lack the flexibility to adapt to discontent, which can lead to their downfall. He discusses the economic implications of communism and the necessity for productivity and innovation within such systems.
"against the other group and so since then it's been like that and it continued to grow you've mentioned the vulnerability of democracy that internal disorder is the vulnerability of democracy what's t..."
Dalio explores the cyclical nature of empires and human behavior, noting how leaders often lose touch with reality over time. He discusses how generations that have not experienced war may become more aggressive and nationalistic, leading to conflicts. This segment delves into the historical patterns that repeat throughout human history.
"as far as an autocratic system rather than um one man one vote from the population up the risks of the autocratic system is that there's enough discontent that arises that the system doesn't have the ..."
Dalio provides an analysis of Vladimir Putin's rise to power in Russia following the collapse of the Soviet Union. He describes Putin as a strong leader who has brought stability to Russia but also highlights the complexities of his leadership style and the geopolitical implications of his alliances, particularly with China.
"what you see normally that movement is that one of the systems is it is not working let's say the democracy is not effectively everybody's arguing with each other and nobody's getting anything done an..."
In this concluding segment, Dalio emphasizes the importance of understanding different cultures and perspectives in international relations. He discusses the complexities of global governance and the need for empathy and respect in cross-cultural interactions. Dalio reflects on the challenges of communication and the significance of listening to truly grasp the nuances of different societies.
"um what his position is strong leader um popular um [Music] these are not subjective interpretations these are uh objective interpretations yeah it's interesting just in this conversation you're not s..."
Dalio reflects on his relationship with Henry Kissinger, praising his unique ability to see geopolitical issues from multiple perspectives. He describes Kissinger as a historian and practitioner who understands the strategic nature of geopolitics, making him a valuable figure in discussions about international relations.
"more i was very lucky because as i say uh you know since 1984 so for more than half of my life i've been going there and i and the common people and all sorts of people and i've got to meet them i don..."
In this segment, Dalio emphasizes the importance of understanding the human motivations behind political actions. He argues that recognizing the hopes and fears of leaders like Vladimir Putin is crucial for effective negotiation and communication, which often gets lost in translation.
"98 years old and he's equally able to do that and he has a background that in which he's a historian so he really understands history super um he doesn't understand economic history as much so that's ..."
Dalio critiques the media's portrayal of political conversations, noting how headlines often misrepresent the true nature of discussions. He stresses the need for deeper understanding in political negotiations to avoid misunderstandings and foster better international relations.
"doing whether it's business deals or um political negotiation or geopolitical negotiation i'm often surprised again sorry to go to the russian thing because i i i hear sort of like i hear putin talk i..."
Ray Dalio shares his evolving perspective on Bitcoin, discussing its resilience over the years and its role as an alternative form of money. He highlights the competition among various forms of currency and the implications of Bitcoin's rise in the global financial system.
"that's at some kind of distortion and there's a lack of understanding of really what's going on if it's okay let me ask you a couple questions about cryptocurrency uh you've had a few opinions about b..."
Dalio compares Bitcoin to gold, discussing their respective roles as stores of value. He expresses skepticism about Bitcoin surpassing gold in value, while acknowledging its significance in the evolving landscape of alternative currencies.
"but there'll be many monies not just crypto monies but there'll be central bank crypto monies um but they'll be uh different kinds of monies um and even monies um are things that you buy and sell nfts..."
In a light-hearted discussion, Dalio reflects on Elon Musk's ambitions for Dogecoin, considering its potential as a currency for future space endeavors. He highlights the humorous and viral nature of meme coins and their impact on communication in the financial world.
"things will be uh trashed so um um but when i look at it um i think we are in an environment of you know what is an alternative money a money has two purposes a medium of exchange and a storehold of w..."
Dalio shares his insights on effective note-taking, emphasizing the importance of documenting principles and reflections after making decisions. He believes that capturing these thoughts can help navigate the complexities of life and decision-making.
"the other but it's a little bit part of my mix but then you look at it it hit i think 69 000 this year as the high bitcoin hit do you think it's possible you mentioned gold do you think it's possible ..."
Ray Dalio reflects on Elon Musk's ambitious plans for space exploration, including the idea of establishing life on Mars. He discusses the symbolic nature of Musk's vision and the humor involved in meme coins like Dogecoin, emphasizing the importance of communication and the viral nature of ideas in today's world.
"official currency maybe uh reserve currency on the moon and on mars my reaction is that's cute i remember elon when he first got he he first got his money from paypal i think he said to me it was he g..."
Dalio shares his insights on the importance of documenting principles for decision-making. He explains how writing down decisions and their underlying principles can clarify thinking and improve communication, drawing on his experiences in leadership and management over the past 30 years.
"you've uh talked about the importance of writing ideas down and uh you have principles in particular in principles and you have this really nice thing in your in your book we actually um i think there..."
In this segment, Ray Dalio offers valuable advice for young individuals navigating their careers and lives. He emphasizes the importance of self-awareness, following one's passion, and understanding personal strengths and weaknesses. Dalio introduces a five-step process for achieving goals and overcoming obstacles.
"it's so much easier to make decisions and it's so much less confusing because it's like coming up on a species and you say okay well what species is it not just another it's a thing no what species is..."
Dalio discusses the concept of evolution and humanity's capacity to adapt and innovate. He expresses hope for the future, highlighting the potential for human civilization to expand beyond Earth. The conversation concludes with a powerful reminder about confronting painful truths and the choices we face in life.
"minute to answer it you dedicate the book quote to my grandchildren and those of their generation who will be participants in the continuation of the story may the force of evolution be with you so le..."