"It's dangerous to do non-consensus investing. Like that's a dangerous idea. If you're alone in your view, you may just be missing something. >> Eventually, you have to get to consensus. If you're depe..."

"So Martin, it looks like uh you've helped uh spark a little bit of an existential crisis on venture Twitter um on BC and I thought we'd uh we'd all come here to to talk about it. >> Great. Super nice ..."

"very clear. I did not say and I would never say consensus investing is a good idea. I'm just saying not being aware of consensus is a bad idea. And I think the underlying the last thing I'll say on th..."

">> Yeah. And and then there's sort of broader commentary on looking at a list of you know big winners over the last you know 15 20 years and saying hey what was consensus what you know which were cons..."

"so like it really comes down to don't you shouldn't be looking for good deals with respect to other investors. You should be looking for good companies and price shouldn't sway you from that. I mean t..."

">> Yeah, I would love to do a correlation analysis. Actually, Leo and I had I thought a very interesting discussion on trying to figure out how you'd actually measure this, how you'd actually throw so..."

"quite know um the answer, but I think a lot of these theories prove out pretty anecdotally. And I think maybe that's the problem. There's kind of an anecdote for every theory. >> Yeah. I I I think the..."

"maybe starting companies changed a lot year to year. Um and so that to me is sort of an indicator like it's not just the fundamentals, there are all these other like forces as you mentioned. Yeah tota..."

"look consensus when you're when you're raising. Um, and and I I I think that's probably that's actually probably right. I >> I think this is probably one area where I differ a bit. I think I think the..."

"the bad ones and you're just marking it up because you want to be in the hot deal and like that ends up not being good for anyone. >> I think this is a tremendously important and good point. Um I I I ..."

"think like consensus investing is is is is definitely very dangerous and only leaning into this for a founder is definitely dangerous. But I also think the flip side is true, which is you're totally b..."

">> well, I'd love to hear Leo's view on this. >> So, you know, it's something I've been thinking about for a while. My take would be that for non-conensus companies, it's getting more efficient becaus..."

"but I I think there's like like there's for me like those two are kind of the opposite opposite ends of the spectrum >> yeah this is a great this is a great qu I I I totally agree this is a great ques..."

"mean, it's the reality. I mean, AI, you know, there's there's AI companies that clearly are raising, you know, speculative money where nobody even really understands the business model, and there's gr..."

"conversation a little bit, right? So, you know, I did my PhD at Stanford. I was a classic, you know, take the research, do a startup. um you know we had so many term sheets before we had any idea of w..."

"actually what we had pitched at that time didn't make any sense. Like we were like we're going to change you know um you know switch hardware which didn't make any sense. And so there's one view that'..."

"it's just I think it's so different to invest at the seed where there's like a thousandx versus like the A at a billion where now maybe there's still like a 10x or 20x but just very different. So, I'v..."

">> Yeah. Yeah. So in I mean so in this case you do think about like what the follow-on thing is going to want to see. You you you have reached a conclusion for the current round that is non consensus...."

">> I'm probably a bad person to ask. I actually haven't invested much in AI because of the deep tech angle. So I see maybe like 10 15% of my companies are pure AI. Um, others obviously use it in some ..."

"evaluated it because I've invested that much of that stuff. >> I I agree. Yeah. >> Um on the deep tech side, I definitely see areas with a lot of hype from time to time. Uh like we for example, we inv..."

"tough for that just because the unit economics right now are just so unknown. Like competing with a human body is a very very hard thing to do. And then of course you can be like, okay, well, you know..."

">> Yeah, I agree. I I have sort of an aside here on the humanoid stuff. Think what I what I've seen over the last like 1015 years is if if the market is big enough it really distorts like VC investing..."

"and also the fact that none of them were Silicon Valley insiders, none of them were, you know, traditional early stage investors, etc. So there's a very reasonable question which is you know maybe som..."

"few years ago, you know, um and so >> it it doesn't seem like we've sort of truly internalized that this is the norm that there's going to continuously be hundred billion dollar, you know, outcomes if..."

"you're, you know, let's say you're doing a series A like a billion posts or something, right? and you want 100x even ignoring dilution. >> Well, you'd have to bet that there's more of them and that mo..."

"str. This is why I think a lot of this comes back to fund size. I mean, even in the Andreas portfolio, I was just thinking off the top of my head, we have three companies that are at the 100 four comp..."

"magnitude higher fund size if you want to play the strategy of being in the winner. I mean there's clearly multiple strategies but if you want to I again I don't know the for me the key question I don..."

"class is uh is is is is dead or something. The idea of an of a more efficient market. Um and I think what that really means is more um that that individual's firm is is is if an individual firm can't ..."

"I'm probably somewhere in between. Like I don't think venture is dead. I think it gets a lot more fun if it's purely consensus. The reason is I think in a purely consensus world, like it all just come..."

">> Yeah. >> I I mean, >> that's exactly right. I'm gonna I'm I'll get a little bit philosophical on this, but like the thing that I've always that's always bugged me about PE investing and public mark..."

"creative destruction, man. I'm like, man. Get them out of the way. Let's invest in growth. And so I love the idea of venture as an asset class getting more efficient and I love the idea of more money..."

">> Yeah and this is so critical. I'm glad you brought you brought it out. Uh I really believe the best companies themselves are non-conensus to customers. I just think that the investing market is is ..."

"I I I do want to build Martin Martino on your point because I think it's so interesting just to comment on how not everyone's incentives are totally aligned here especially between sort of the what's ..."

"okay. I also do still very much believe in the in the barbell that there will be you know these big these big you know sort of um ma massive funds that continue to to to to win and invest in compound ..."

"Does that sound fair? >> Yeah, I think that sounds fair. I definitely agree with the not looking for price arbitrage piece because I will say for me personally, my best investments have been ones on o..."