All Segments
How Much Will China Risk for Taiwan? – Sarah Paine (Naval War College)
3 segments available
Full Episode: https://youtu.be/YcVSgYz5SJ8 (October 2023) Transcript: https://www.dwarkeshpatel.com/p/sarah-paine Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/sarah-c-m-paine-how-xi-putin-think-maritime-vs-continental/id1516093381?i=1000630184469 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/episode/073V9sl5GLf7R0JlMSFdK7?si=Z3Eu2BZiQiCe1rDINzCZDQ Follow me on Twitter: https://twitter.com/dwarkesh_sp
Segments Timeline
China's Economic Miracle and Political Dilemma
Sarah Paine discusses the remarkable economic achievements of China since Deng Xiaoping, highlighting how hundreds of millions have been lifted out of poverty through reintegration into the global maritime order. However, she emphasizes the Communist Party's struggle to maintain its monopoly on power amidst rising demands for autonomy from an educated populace and successful businesses.
"this is what's so tragic about China think about how many people have been lifted out of poverty so many since dung sha ping hundreds of millions it is a great achievement of our lifetimes it's happen..."
The Nationalism Card: A Last Resort
In this segment, Paine explains how the Chinese Communist Party has shifted to nationalism as its primary tool for unification, especially regarding Taiwan. She warns that any aggressive move to reclaim Taiwan could lead to significant errors, drawing parallels with historical dictatorships that have made similar claims. The segment underscores the importance of understanding Xi Jinping's intentions as he openly declares ambitions for Taiwan.
"and so that went in tandem for a number of years now we're at the inflection point where you have a lot of educated people and businesses who are really integrated in the world and they want to make a..."
Consequences of Conflict: Sanctions and Sovereignty
Paine outlines the potential consequences of a military conflict over Taiwan, predicting a brutal approach similar to the situation in Ukraine. She argues that the global order is based on sovereignty and discusses how sanctions can weaken China over time, using North and South Korea as a historical example. This segment emphasizes the need for a strategic response to any aggressive actions by China regarding Taiwan.
"card and they're playing it butt hard because it's a unifying thing for Chinese for the Han ethnic group in China um who constitute the overwhelming majority uh that Taiwan should be theirs it's a mis..."