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Stephen Kotkin — How Stalin became the most powerful dictator in history
53 segments available
Stephen Kotkin is arguably the world’s foremost expert on Joseph Stalin and has written a massive 2-volume biography about him (with a 3rd volume in the works). No other individual had more of a profound impact on the 20th century than Stalin. He held the power of life and death over every single person across 11 time zones, and he killed tens of millions of people, utterly consumed by an ideology aimed at building paradise on Earth. And he was one half of the biggest and most consequential military confrontation in history (even if Hitler didn’t prove to be his match). Read the transcript: https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/stephen-kotkin Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/dwarkesh-podcast/id1516093381?i=1000716709877 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/episode/0Wb7GWB1DmmO8Jw3ILPavW?si=2bcf0bfa96b442ba ---------------------------------------- SPONSORS * Lighthouse is THE fastest immigration solution for the technology industry. All they need is your resume or LinkedIn profile to tell you which visas you’re most eligible for, and they’ll send you this eligibility document for free, no commitment required. Get started today at https://www.lighthousehq.com/ref/Dwarkesh. To sponsor a future episode, visit https://dwarkesh.com/advertise ---------------------------------------- TIMESTAMPS 00:00:00 – Was the tsarist regime the lesser of 2 evils? 00:24:38 – The peasants brought Lenin to power, then he enslaved them 00:38:31 – Why did so many go along with enforced famine and the Great Terror? 01:03:19 – Today's leftist civil war 01:13:54 – Doesn’t CCP deserve credit for China's growth? 01:36:06 – Why didn't somebody just kill Stalin? 01:53:38 – Overcoming the pathologies of communism with tech: USSR vs China
Segments Timeline
The Tsarist Regime: A Comparative Analysis
Stephen Kotkin discusses the repressive nature of the tsarist regime in Russia, comparing it to modern standards and other historical regimes. He emphasizes the need for the tsarist regime to modernize its military and industry while suppressing political dissent, highlighting the dilemma of needing modernization without political freedom.
"My guest today is Stephen Kotkin, who is a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution and author of two-thirds of his three-volume Stalin biographies. The first one, Stalin: Paradoxes of Power. The s..."
Modernization as a Geopolitical Necessity
Kotkin explains that modernization in the tsarist regime was driven by geopolitical competition. He argues that the need for a modern military and industry compelled the regime to repress the very intellectual and working-class elements necessary for that modernization, creating a paradox that persists in authoritarian regimes today.
"It needs to be able to compete in the international system. That means it needs a modern military and modern industry to underwrite that modern military. So it needs armaments, it needs steel, it ..."
The Dilemma of Autocratic Regimes
In this segment, Kotkin elaborates on the challenges faced by autocratic regimes in balancing modernization with political repression. He draws parallels with contemporary regimes, illustrating how the need for technological advancement often conflicts with the desire to maintain control over political ideologies.
"importing modernization but keeping out the political side, the value side that goes along with that. They need to have some way to repress and control the working-class organization, movement s..."
Lessons from History: The Lesser of Two Evils
Kotkin reflects on historical lessons regarding the choice between autocratic regimes and revolutionary movements. He discusses the complexities of cooperating with less repressive regimes to avoid greater chaos, using examples from the tsarist era and the rise of Bolshevism.
"Do you think that that still applies in today's world? Yes, there are pockets of conflict in the Middle East or in Ukraine, which would motivate the key powers there to want to have modern milit..."
Stalin's Revolutionary Path: Unintended Consequences
This segment focuses on Stalin's early life and his dedication to fighting the injustices of the tsarist regime. Kotkin highlights how Stalin's revolutionary methods ultimately led to a regime that was more oppressive than the one he sought to overthrow, illustrating the concept of perverse and unintended consequences in revolutionary movements.
"while importing as much as they can of the attributes… It's two sides of the same coin. The thing that gets you the engineers also gets you the possible political ideas. So the tsarist regime begi..."
The Failure of Constitutionalism in Russia
Kotkin discusses the failure of constitutional movements in Russia during the early 20th century. He explains how the lack of a stable political order led to chaos and the rise of more radical leftist movements, contrasting this with successful constitutional developments in other countries.
"It's totally unjust and the claims of the people protesting are legitimate. Stalin goes into the underground, not because he's looking for power. It's because he's dedicated to fighting the injus..."
The Paradox of Revolutionary Change
In this segment, Kotkin examines the paradox of revolutionary change in mass societies. He argues that while revolutions can lead to radical leftist outcomes, failing to reform existing regimes can also result in instability and social upheaval, complicating the path to a more inclusive political system.
"The constitutionalists, otherwise known as the Kadets, we would call them the classical liberals. They're the private property, constitutional order, anti-autocracy people fighting the tsarist re..."
Historical Patterns of Regime Change
Kotkin analyzes historical patterns of regime change, particularly in the context of the tsarist regime and its response to modernization pressures. He discusses how autocratic regimes often fail to adapt, leading to revolutionary outcomes that can be counterproductive to societal progress.
"before the modern era. Why? Because when you institute constitutional order, like in England, in the US, to a certain extent in France which has a more complicated process, you do it before you'..."
Building an Inclusive Political System
In this concluding segment, Kotkin addresses the challenges of creating an inclusive political system that accommodates all societal levels. He emphasizes the importance of reforms that engage the masses and provide opportunities for upward mobility, drawing lessons from both successful and failed attempts at modernization.
"The opposite has happened in most other cases where you've gotten an attempt but a failure to introduce enduring constitutional order in a mass society. But there's a paradox here. If you institu..."
The Paradox of Political Overthrow
Stephen Kotkin discusses the complexities of political movements in Russia, highlighting the challenges of transitioning from autocracy to a more participatory governance. He explores the interplay between leftist and rightist radicalization, illustrating how each side's existence can reinforce the other's power, ultimately leading to dictatorship. This segment delves into the historical context of the Tsarist regime and its radical right, setting the stage for understanding the rise of Leninism and the Bolshevik Revolution.
"repressed the political movement, the Tsar wanted to undo those concessions and go back to being an autocrat. An autocrat, autokrator, means a "self-power, a power unto itself". So this is your ..."
Peasant Land Hunger and Revolution
In this segment, Kotkin examines the critical role of peasant land hunger in the Russian Revolution. He explains how the lack of land ownership among peasants created a politically unstable environment, leading to radical movements. The discussion highlights the failed reforms of the 1860s and how the peasants' desire for land ultimately fueled the Bolshevik rise to power, contrasting this with the situation in Germany where peasants had more land and stability.
"You say that in 1917 a leftist revolution of some kind was inevitable, but that it didn't have to be the Bolshevik October Revolution. Why was leftism inevitable in Russia? You put your finger on ..."
The Irony of Peasant Revolutions
Kotkin articulates the irony of the peasant revolutions in Russia, where the very actions of peasants seeking land led to their own re-enslavement under Stalin. He discusses how the radicalism of the peasant class inadvertently supported the Bolsheviks, who ultimately betrayed their initial goals. This segment explores the unintended consequences of revolutionary movements and the cyclical nature of oppression in the context of land ownership.
"resolved right through 1917, 1918. So the peasants had their own revolution in 1917 and 1918, which was not about the socialist parties. It's not about the Bolsheviks, it's not about Lenin, it's ..."
The Role of Peasantry in Political Stability
In this insightful segment, Kotkin discusses the significance of peasantry in shaping political outcomes across different societies. He contrasts the situations in Russia and Central Europe, emphasizing how land distribution and peasant integration into the political system influenced the rise of leftist or rightist dictatorships. The conversation highlights the importance of managing peasant relations to maintain stability and prevent revolutions.
"In central Europe—the southern German case, the northern Italian case, the Hungarian case—you don't have the endurance of the leftists in power. They're all thrown out. They're thrown out by the..."
The Repressive Apparatus of Stalinism
Kotkin provides a detailed analysis of the repressive mechanisms employed by Stalin's regime compared to the Tsarist era. He explains how the expansion of the secret police and the military's role in repression evolved, leading to a more brutal and pervasive system of control. This segment sheds light on the transformation of state power and the implications for the peasantry during Stalin's rule.
"unrest is caused by the mistreatment of peasants in China and in Russia, you have the mistreatment of them to an extent unimaginable after the collectivization in 1928 where literally 100 millio..."
Sadism and Ideology in Stalin's Regime
In this thought-provoking segment, Kotkin explores the psychological and ideological motivations behind the sadism exhibited by Stalin's interrogators and enforcers. He discusses how ideology fueled a sense of purpose among those involved in the regime's brutal tactics, leading to a culture of violence and repression. This analysis provides insight into the mindset of individuals participating in the regime's atrocities.
"surveillance and infiltration. You're reading their mail, which is something that's invented in France. The black cabinets are a French invention that the tsar's secret police borrow. You're follo..."
Ideology and the Pursuit of a New World
Kotkin concludes with a discussion on the ideological fervor that drove individuals to commit acts of violence in the name of communism. He reflects on the motivations of young activists and the belief in building a new world free from exploitation. This segment examines the complexities of ideological commitment and its impact on personal actions within the broader context of revolutionary movements.
"Again, a fantastic question. We get this from Lev Kopelev, The Education of a True Believer. He was one of these people. He later then becomes a dissident. He gets forced into exile in Germany. He'..."
The Allure of Ideology
Kotkin explores why young people and intellectuals are drawn to Marxism-Leninism despite its bloody history. He discusses the appeal of total transformation and the eradication of social injustices, emphasizing the ideological simplicity that attracts those seeking quick solutions to complex problems. This segment highlights the tension between ideological commitment and the harsh realities of historical outcomes.
"He wants to allow people who can't afford Manhattan to live there. That's a good idea. Life should be more affordable. There should be more places like Queens, where you can come in as immigrant..."
Loyalty to the Party vs. Personal Beliefs
This segment examines the conflict between personal beliefs and loyalty to the Communist Party during Stalin's regime. Kotkin references Trotsky's acknowledgment of party discipline and the fear that drove many to conform, even when they believed Stalin was betraying the revolutionary ideals. He discusses the psychological complexities of loyalty, fear, and the sacrifices made by individuals in the name of ideology.
"There's ideology, but there's a very specific thing to these Marxist regimes. They might believe in class conflict and that you need this revolution and so forth. But there's also this sense that ..."
The Intellectual Class and Marxism
Kotkin analyzes the empowerment of the intellectual class within Marxist regimes, arguing that these systems allow intellectuals to wield significant power without the need for democratic legitimacy. He discusses how Marxism-Leninism appeals to young people by positioning them as decision-makers in the pursuit of social justice, despite the inherent coercion involved in social engineering.
"to young people and to intellectuals? Why? We have this history, which is a bloody mess. Millions of people die, and they die because of the enactment of this ideology. How could people continue t..."
The March of History and Its Costs
In this segment, Kotkin reflects on the historical narrative of Marxism-Leninism, emphasizing the belief in a transformative march towards peace and justice. He discusses the inevitability of sacrifices along the way, including the suffering of innocents, and the ideological justification that underpins such actions. This segment highlights the tension between ideological goals and the moral implications of achieving them.
"The other reason, which is even deeper than that, is that Marxism-Leninism empowers the intellectual class and the lumpen-intellectual class. In a market system, you get to do what you want. You w..."
Self-Destruction of Totalitarian Regimes
Kotkin presents a compelling analysis of the self-destructive nature of Stalin's regime, where even loyalists were purged. He contrasts Stalin's approach with Hitler's, noting that Stalin's terror targeted not only enemies but also those who were once allies. This segment delves into the paradox of a regime that could sustain itself despite its internal contradictions and the psychological factors that allowed it to persist.
"They love the state. They love the state as an instrument for social justice, social engineering. They love to empower themselves as the decision-makers because, after all, they're the intellectu..."
The Complexity of Human Psychology
This segment explores the intricate psychology of individuals within totalitarian regimes, discussing how people can hold contradictory beliefs and act against their self-preservation. Kotkin emphasizes the need to understand the motivations behind actions taken during Stalin's purges, highlighting the interplay of fear, ideology, and personal conviction in shaping behavior during times of crisis.
"Social engineering is always coercive, always coercive. The issue is how much of the coercion is necessary that we accept in the tradeoff to right some of the things that are obviously wrong. All..."
The Role of Ideology in Dictatorships
Kotkin discusses the fundamental role of ideology in sustaining dictatorships, particularly Marxism-Leninism. He examines how the belief in a better world can lead to justifications for extreme actions, including the purging of perceived enemies. This segment highlights the paradox of ideological commitment and the moral compromises made in the pursuit of revolutionary goals.
"socialism and the building of Marxism-Leninism." So people did believe that Stalin was actually going against this end goal that they had. At least Khrushchev believed that. In many cases, they t..."
The Necessity of Coercion in Social Engineering
In this segment, Kotkin addresses the inherent coercion involved in social engineering under Marxist regimes. He discusses the trade-offs between necessary coercion and the pursuit of social justice, emphasizing the complexities of implementing ideological goals in practice. This segment raises critical questions about the moral implications of using state power to achieve social change.
"The ones who publicly decry the failures of the system and its perverse and unintended consequences, the ones who decry the dictatorship as opposed to the freedom that Marx predicted would happe..."
The Civil War on the Left
Kotkin outlines the ongoing ideological conflict within the left, contrasting revolutionary Marxists with social democrats who advocate for reform within capitalism. He discusses the historical context of this civil war, highlighting the debates over the means of achieving social justice and the implications for contemporary political discourse. This segment underscores the enduring relevance of these ideological divides.
"they're implicating themselves? They know they're not an enemy. Again, the party is a larger cause than they are. You're building a new world. Your life can contribute to that or not, and it's ins..."
The Dangers of Ideological Purity
In this segment, Kotkin warns against the dangers of ideological purity in revolutionary movements. He discusses how the pursuit of a perfect ideological vision can lead to violence and oppression, as seen in Stalin's regime. This segment emphasizes the need for pragmatism and the acceptance of complexity in political ideologies to avoid the pitfalls of totalitarianism.
"We could give many examples. You've had people like that on your show, for example. So the psychology is not as surprising in some ways. What's surprising is that this whole thing succeeds. It d..."
Understanding the Nature of Socialism
Kotkin concludes with a discussion on the multifaceted nature of socialism and the historical trajectory of communist parties. He explains the ideological framework that drives the transition from capitalism to socialism and the challenges faced in realizing these goals. This segment provides a comprehensive overview of the ideological underpinnings of socialism and its implications for political movements.
"One of the things they do is to walk through the fire of their self-immolation on behalf of the cause. This belief in the new world, in the better world, in transcending capitalism, in getting p..."
The Revisionist Debate in Socialism
In this final segment, Kotkin explores the divide within the socialist movement between revolutionary and revisionist approaches. He discusses the implications of accepting capitalism and markets as part of the path to socialism, highlighting the historical context of this debate. This segment underscores the ongoing tensions within leftist ideologies and their relevance in contemporary political discussions.
"Socialism means many different things. A communist party is building socialism. Why? Because their view of the world is: feudalism, capitalism, socialism, communism. First they have to destroy ca..."
Revisionism vs. Revolution
Kotkin examines the historical context of socialist movements, focusing on figures like Eduard Bernstein who advocated for a revisionist approach to socialism. He explains how these social democrats accepted capitalism and sought to reform it rather than overthrow it, leading to a significant ideological split within the socialist movement. This segment highlights the complexities of leftist politics and the challenges of reconciling different visions for achieving socialism.
"and prosperity, in order to have freedom. We need to manage it better, redistribute. This civil war on the left, which arises in real time, the critics of Lenin's revolution, the German Social De..."
Stalin's Legacy and the System
In this thought-provoking segment, Kotkin discusses how the horrors of Stalin's regime are often attributed to his personal failings rather than the underlying communist system. He argues that even after denouncing Stalin's crimes, the belief in the communist system persists, leading to a paradox where failures do not discredit the ideology. This analysis sheds light on the enduring nature of communist beliefs despite historical atrocities.
"You have this deep and fundamental problem for the left. The tragedy of the left that it's never able to overcome, even to this day, where it comes out and says, "No more anti-capitalism ever, th..."
The Paradox of Communist Reform
Kotkin explores the paradoxical nature of communist reform, particularly in China under leaders like Deng Xiaoping. He explains how the Communist Party, despite its failures, adapts by allowing economic liberalization while maintaining political control. This segment illustrates the tension between economic growth and the party's need to suppress political alternatives, revealing the complexities of governance in a post-Mao China.
"It's a second wind that it was Stalin who was the problem, not the system that was the problem. So here we have the experience of going through the horrors, then having those horrors publicly den..."
The Role of the Communist Party in Economic Growth
In this segment, Kotkin argues against the narrative that the Communist Party is solely responsible for China's economic success. He emphasizes that the real drivers of growth are the entrepreneurial spirit and hard work of the Chinese people. This discussion challenges the perception of communism as a successful economic model and highlights the importance of individual agency in achieving prosperity.
"but to them, that's the solution. This is a paradoxical element of communism where its failures don't become discrediting for so many of the people. They instead become a kind of second wind once..."
The Role of Policy in Economic Success
Stephen Kotkin discusses the complexities of economic policy in the United States, emphasizing that while policy matters, it cannot solely account for the nation's sustained global economic dominance. He argues that the wealth of the U.S. over 150 years is influenced by a variety of factors beyond policy, including incentives for officials and the broader economic environment.
"government wasn't maximally stupid. Fair point, DK. We often exaggerate the role of policy in all realms because we do policy ourselves or we talk to policymakers. We have a bias towards the causa..."
Incentives and Economic Growth in China
Kotkin explains how the Communist Party of China adapted its policies to create incentives for economic growth. He highlights the transition from a struggling economy under Mao to a more entrepreneurial environment under Deng Xiaoping, illustrating how policy changes can lead to significant economic outcomes.
"We have to understand in the communist sense that incentives matter. When you create incentives for officials to increase GDP and to increase job creation, and that's how they get rewarded, you'r..."
Deng Xiaoping's Economic Strategy
In this segment, Kotkin outlines Deng Xiaoping's strategic pivot from Soviet-style communism to a market-oriented approach, drawing parallels with Japan's post-war recovery. He discusses how Deng's policies, including establishing special economic zones, were crucial for China's economic miracle, leveraging American consumer demand.
"of human capital and policy got less stupid. If we're going to complain about a country like Bangladesh being poor—and there are many poor countries in the world… Maybe we're going in circles her..."
The Importance of Hong Kong and Foreign Investment
Kotkin emphasizes the role of Hong Kong as a financial hub that facilitated China's economic growth. He explains how British colonial rule established a system of law and finance that allowed for foreign direct investment, particularly from Taiwan and Japan, which was essential for China's development under Deng Xiaoping.
"thanks to Jimmy Carter. The communist regime in Beijing gets most-favored-nation status, which has to be renewed every year and is renewed every single year until 2000-2001, when they're admitte..."
The East Asian Economic Miracle
This segment explores the broader East Asian economic miracle, comparing China's rise to that of Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan. Kotkin discusses how these nations capitalized on their relationships with the U.S. market to achieve rapid economic growth, highlighting the competitive advantages they developed.
"The other thing they have is overseas Chinese who know the culture, speak the language, and are going to do the FDI, again routed through Hong Kong. So you have Taiwan. Ironically, the failure t..."
The Role of the Communist Party in China's Success
Kotkin argues that while the Communist Party of China played a role in the country's economic success, it primarily benefited from existing conditions and external partnerships. He critiques the narrative that attributes China's economic miracle solely to the Party, emphasizing the contributions of other factors.
"that American consumers will buy. American consumers are not forced to buy Chinese products. They're just better, and they're cheaper. So they buy them because it's a market and there's competitio..."
Counterfactuals in Historical Analysis
In this thought-provoking segment, Kotkin discusses the importance of counterfactuals in understanding historical events. He questions what might have happened if different leaders had been in power during critical moments in Soviet history, particularly regarding Stalin's rise and the policies he enacted.
"Counterfactuals are really critical for historical thought. A lot of historians are pedantic about this. They say we're against counterfactuals, it's just speculation. But every single one of th..."
The Making of a Dictator: Stalin's Rise
Kotkin delves into the psychological and environmental factors that shaped Stalin's character and leadership style. He examines how Stalin's experiences in power transformed him into a dictator, exploring the dynamics of power struggles within the Communist Party and the implications for future leaders.
"what the larger context in the world looks like? Here you have a Communist party that seizes power. As I said, unlike the case of Bavaria, southern Germany, northern Italy, Hungary, it holds power..."
Why Assassination Attempts Fail in Dictatorships
In this segment, Kotkin addresses the paradox of why elites in dictatorships often do not attempt to assassinate their leaders, despite their detrimental policies. He discusses the collective action problem and the lack of trust among officials, which complicates efforts to challenge authoritarian rule.
"Someone who would then come out the other side of that as the victor with this gigantic secret police that was really small but got really big in the process of doing the very thing that people..."
The Paradox of Dictatorship
Stephen Kotkin explores why elites in authoritarian regimes, like Xi Jinping and Putin, don't remove their leaders despite the ruin they bring. He discusses the collective action problem and the unique effectiveness of Stalin's dictatorship, which creates a sense of loyalty and fear among those in power. Kotkin argues that the fear of losing the revolution and the future they believe in prevents them from acting against such leaders.
"him let him do that? Around Putin, the people are falling out of windows. Instead of falling out of the windows themselves, why don't they push him out the window? Khamenei in Iran, he's brought r..."
Trust Issues in Totalitarian Regimes
In this segment, Kotkin delves into the lack of trust within Stalin's regime, explaining how fear of betrayal prevents functionaries from uniting against him. He illustrates the paranoia that permeates these dictatorships, where even discussing dissent can lead to severe consequences, thus maintaining Stalin's grip on power.
"Of course, they know that they can't do what he does. If they tried to unseat him, they might save their lives but they might lose the revolution, the system and the radiant future, the overthro..."
Stalin's Isolation and Security
Kotkin contrasts Stalin's approach to leadership with that of other dictators like Hitler, noting how Stalin's isolation and lack of public appearances contributed to his security. He discusses the absence of serious assassination attempts against Stalin and how the regime's structure insulated him from threats, unlike other totalitarian leaders.
"There's a lack of trust inside these dictatorships. If you knew that Stalin hadn't sent me for sure 100%, you would say, "You know, you're right. You got a point there. What can we do about this?..."
The Absence of Assassination Attempts
This segment examines the rarity of assassination attempts on Stalin compared to other dictators. Kotkin highlights the unique mentality of Stalin's followers and the internal dynamics of the regime that led to self-destruction rather than rebellion against their leader, emphasizing the psychological factors at play.
"Even so, it is paradoxical because when Hitler goes to make a speech, every year Hitler makes a speech in Munich. It's known when he's going to make the speech. It's announced in the paper. There..."
Lessons from Eastern Europe and China
Kotkin draws parallels between the Soviet Union's struggles in the 1980s and China's current situation. He discusses the challenges of maintaining a Marxist-Leninist regime and the potential pitfalls of political reform, emphasizing the historical lessons that Chinese leaders may learn from the collapse of Eastern European regimes.
"They didn't know that Stalin was in the boat. You've written other books about the collapse of the Soviet Union. There's this last ditch effort in the Eastern Bloc where there's falling productiv..."
The Dilemma of Economic Liberalization
In this segment, Kotkin discusses the challenges faced by authoritarian regimes like China when attempting to balance economic liberalization with political control. He explains how too much openness can threaten the regime's stability, while too little can hinder economic growth, creating a precarious situation for leaders.
"What happens in communist political reform, not economic reform where they allow some market behavior, but where you liberalize the system and you open it up politically… You say, DK, let's have..."
Tech as a Double-Edged Sword
Kotkin explores the belief among authoritarian leaders that technology can enhance their control and efficiency. He argues that while tech may offer short-term solutions, it cannot address the fundamental issues of political legitimacy that underpin their power, drawing on historical examples to illustrate his point.
"You have this constant back and forth of how much economic liberalization you can have before it becomes a threat, or how little economic liberalization you can have before it becomes a threat t..."
The Illusion of Strategic Partnerships
In this segment, Kotkin critiques the notion of strategic partnerships among authoritarian regimes, particularly between China, Russia, and Iran. He argues that these alliances are opportunistic and ultimately fail to provide the political legitimacy that regimes like Iran desperately need to maintain power.
"Here's the problem with that argument. First, it didn't work the last time. That doesn't mean it won't work this time, but the track record, even though it's a small number of cases, is not good. ..."
The Role of Political Legitimacy
Kotkin emphasizes the importance of political legitimacy in sustaining authoritarian regimes. He discusses how regimes that fail to maintain legitimacy face significant challenges, including public dissent and potential collapse, highlighting the disconnect between the ruling powers and the populace.
"legitimacy to Iran. They can give dual-use technology. They can give them missiles. They can give them anti-missile defense. They can never give them political legitimacy. That's the vulnerability..."
The Fragility of Repressive Systems
In this concluding segment, Kotkin reflects on the fragility of repressive systems, explaining how the loyalty of those enforcing the regime can shift. He draws parallels to historical events where the repressive apparatus failed to act, leading to significant political changes, underscoring the unpredictable nature of authoritarian rule.
"You never know when it's going to happen. It's very hard to predict beforehand. But there comes a moment where the people who are supposed to do the shooting decide not to shoot. The people who are..."
The Long Run vs. Short Run: A World War III Scenario
Kotkin reflects on the potential for global conflict, suggesting that while the short run may be perilous, the long-term outlook is more optimistic. He discusses the importance of avoiding a hot war between great powers and the benefits of a cold war dynamic, where competition can exist without direct conflict. This segment underscores the complexities of geopolitical tensions and the hope for a stable future.
"real freedoms. They have the right to vote. Now, they can't get what they want. They go to the polls and they see bad candidate, worse candidate, even worse candidate. But they can punish what they..."
Closing Thoughts: Complexity and Future Prospects
In the closing moments of the podcast, Kotkin acknowledges the complexity of the issues discussed and expresses gratitude for the conversation. He reflects on the challenges of succinctly addressing intricate topics and hints at the potential for future discussions. This segment encapsulates the overarching themes of the podcast while leaving the audience with a sense of ongoing inquiry.
"So we have to elongate the short run. No world war between the US and China. Get to the long run, get to the competition, get to the cold war instead of hot war, where we're not having a hot war. ..."