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The U.S. Can’t Build AI Without These Materials
39 segments available
It can take more than 15 years to permit and build a new mine in the United States - yet nearly every modern technology we rely on, from smartphones to fighter jets to AI data centers, depends on a steady supply of critical minerals. In this episode, Erik Torenberg is joined in the studio by Turner Caldwell, founder of Mariana Minerals, along with American Dynamism general partner Erin Price-Wright and partner Ryan McEntush. Turner spent nearly a decade at Tesla, working his way upstream from factory design to battery materials and mining. Now, he’s building a new kind of mining and refining company - vertically integrated and software-first- designed to meet the demands of our industrial future. We get into why the industry is so broken, what it actually takes to turn rocks into usable materials, and how the U.S. can rebuild its capacity to mine, refine, and manufacture the things that matter most. Timecodes: 00:00 Introduction 00:53 The Importance of Critical Minerals 01:54 The Mining Process Explained 04:05 Challenges in the Mining Industry 05:46 Career Paths in Mining 06:40 Personal Journey and Insights 11:16 Tesla's Vertical Integration 12:47 Geopolitical & Market Dynamics 16:24 Technological Innovations in Mining 20:47 Industry Challenges & Opportunities 28:19 Mariana's Product & Thesis in Construction and Mining 29:30 Leveraging Technology in Mining 32:02 Automating Chemical Processing & Optimizing Refining Operations 35:25 Challenges in Scaling & Commissioning Refineries 36:55 Deciding What to Build & Where to Partner 38:05 Supply Chain & Commercial Deployment of New Technologies 40:20 Venture Capital & the Mining Industry 42:59 Critical Minerals & Their Importance 47:45 Permitting & Regulatory Challenges in the US 53:46 International Strategy & Future Goals 54:44 Conclusion: Rebuilding Infrastructure & Capability Resources: Find Turner on X :https://x.com/tbc415 Find Erin on X: https://x.com/espricewright Find Ryan on X: https://x.com/rmcentush Stay Updated: Let us know what you think: https://ratethispodcast.com/a16z Find a16z on Twitter: https://twitter.com/a16z Find a16z on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/a16z Subscribe on your favorite podcast app: https://a16z.simplecast.com/ Follow our host: https://x.com/eriktorenberg Please note that the content here is for informational purposes only; should NOT be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice or be used to evaluate any investment or security; and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any a16z fund. a16z and its affiliates may maintain investments in the companies discussed. For more details please see a16z.com/disclosures.
Segments Timeline
The Foundation of Modern Technology
Turner Caldwell discusses the critical role of minerals in everyday technology, emphasizing their importance in devices like smartphones and AI data centers. He highlights the urgent need for aluminum, copper, iron, and zinc, and the potential for hard tech companies to innovate in the mining sector, which remains largely untapped by technology.
"Critical minerals fundamentally underpin everything that we do every day. It's in your phone. You have in your AirPods, your screens, your laptops. Everything that we use, how they're refined, and how..."
Understanding Critical Minerals
In this segment, Turner Caldwell explains what critical minerals are and why they are essential across various industries, including aerospace, renewable energy, and AI. He stresses the need to bring the production and refinement of these minerals to the forefront of public awareness, as they are crucial for modern technology.
"[Music] So Turner, uh you're coming out of stealth with $85 million raised. Um why don't we get into what are critical min minerals and why do they matter? Critical minerals fundamentally uh underpin ..."
From Rocks to Usable Materials
Turner outlines the complex process of turning raw minerals into usable products, starting from exploration to mining and refining. He details the steps involved, including separating ore from waste, concentrating the minerals, and producing high-purity metals and engineered materials for batteries and magnets.
"that. Well, why don't we get into how do we turn rocks into batteries or magnets and and why is that so important? Yeah. So, it starts with mining obviously. Well, it actually starts with exploration...."
Bespoke Mining Processes
This segment delves into the bespoke nature of mining processes, where each site requires a unique flow sheet tailored to its specific ore characteristics. Turner discusses the challenges posed by varying ore grades and impurity concentrations, emphasizing the complexity of designing effective refining operations.
"the magnet side of things, you know, similarly, you'll get to a a refined um, a refined rare earth product. Um, and you know, it's a long list of rare earths. They often get bundled into like one grou..."
Diverse Careers in Mining
Turner Caldwell highlights the diverse range of professionals involved in the mining industry, from geologists and mining engineers to chemical engineers and site workers. He discusses the importance of collaboration among these various roles to successfully operate complex mining and refining operations.
"what that flow sheet ultimately looks like. Um, but yes, and I imagine very hard to change as the nature of the ore changes as you mine a site. That that's right. Um, and so, you know, part of what we..."
Turner's Journey to Mining
Turner shares his personal journey from graduating college to working at Tesla, where he gained experience in factory design and battery manufacturing. He reflects on his growing interest in the mining industry and the importance of understanding the supply chain for battery materials.
"Did you always love rocks? Like did you always know that you were going to start a mining company? Yeah, so funny funny kind of a funny story. The day that I graduated from college, the like urge that..."
The Cost of Metals and Industry Dynamics
In this segment, Turner discusses the cost dynamics of metals in the mining industry, highlighting the misalignment of incentives between customers and producers. He explains how increased demand can lead to higher prices, contrasting this with manufacturing where higher volume typically reduces costs.
"of digging much deeper uh into why metals are so expensive. Um and what you kind of run into is that um there's this interesting um incentive misalignment that exists between uh the customer and the p..."
Cultural Insights from Battery Manufacturing
Turner reflects on his experiences in Asia while working with Panasonic on battery manufacturing. He discusses the cultural aspects that contribute to precision and long-term investment in the industry, emphasizing the iterative improvements that lead to cost reductions in high-precision manufacturing.
"work across across those scales which is which is exciting. Something I found interesting about Tesla especially early days working with Panasonic that a lot of the the knowhow the the process knowled..."
Lessons from Tesla's Vertical Integration
Turner shares insights from his time at Tesla regarding vertical integration. He explains how Tesla's need for specific parts led to early vertical integration and how misaligned incentives with suppliers drove the company to insource development to meet product specifications.
"yeah, the labor pool is a big piece and and I think that some some of it is definitely cultural. Your time at Tesla like you know Tesla famously vertically integrated very early. Um you're building a ..."
Automation Challenges in Mining
The conversation shifts to the challenges of automation in the mining industry. Caldwell explains how the absence of automation has historically impacted profitability and how the current labor shortage is exacerbating these issues, making it difficult to implement advanced technologies.
"um misalignment that existed between the industries. Um the you know the degree to which um automation was absent um was pretty interesting. Um there's a there's a long period of time where minds make..."
Life Inside a Mine
Caldwell provides a glimpse into the daily operations of a mine, contrasting experiences in developed countries like Australia and Canada with those in developing nations. He describes the calmness of operations and the varying degrees of automation present in different regions.
"and less available. Um, you know, the mining industry has kind of been taking it on the on the head for a long time. It's not been a sexy industry that everyone wants to go into. Um, and so the labor ..."
From Tesla to Mariana: A New Venture
Caldwell reflects on his decision to leave Tesla and start Mariana Minerals. He discusses his desire to push further upstream in the mining supply chain and the critical inflection point the industry is facing due to labor shortages and advancements in AI and machine learning.
"Um and and that's in Australia and in Canada. Um like it's not this like buzzing atmosphere. Um in developing countries it's a little different. Um there's like a different degree of um there's defini..."
AI's Role in Mining Optimization
Caldwell explores the potential of AI and machine learning in solving complex optimization problems in mining. He emphasizes the need for innovative solutions that can operate without human intervention, particularly in large-scale infrastructure projects.
"in the opposite direction of demand in the mining industry. Um but uh AI and ML are getting you know to the point where and it and it's not that it hasn't it hasn't been that long right like the Alph ..."
Current State of Mining Technology
The discussion turns to the status quo of major mining companies like BHP and Rio Tinto. Caldwell critiques their reliance on external consultants for digital innovation and highlights the challenges of integrating new technologies into established operations.
"poised to to solve. Um and then on the construction side um that is like an entirely different story. I think construction um there's a lot of workflow automation opportunities and there's also tons o..."
Cultural Resistance to Change
Caldwell addresses the cultural barriers within the mining industry that hinder the adoption of new technologies. He discusses the risk-averse nature of large companies and the difficulties startups face in gaining trust and acceptance for their innovations.
"do for like a lot of like some of the stuff you're talking about like the from a software perspective like internally they have digital innovation arms they have they do have digital innovation arms I..."
The Challenge of Piloting New Technologies
Caldwell explains the challenges of conducting pilot projects in the mining industry. He notes that the slow pace of new mine development limits opportunities for startups to demonstrate their technologies on a commercial scale.
"within like large companies. I think the um on the construction side when they build new projects, you know, they're building 510 billion projects um and so they are always bringing in an EPC and kind..."
Tech Adoption in Mining: A Slow Process
Caldwell discusses the barriers to technology adoption in the mining sector, emphasizing the need for operators to trust new solutions. He describes the industry's reluctance to change and the resulting stagnation in innovation.
"Um and some of that comes from like the talent acquisition challenge that the mining industry has faced over the last 20 years. Again, the mining industry industry has not been this um magnet um for t..."
Geopolitical Context of Mining
The conversation shifts to the geopolitical landscape of the mining industry. Caldwell contrasts the challenges faced by Western companies with the rapid growth of Chinese mining firms, exploring the reasons behind this disparity.
"and hardware tools for mining. The challenge seems to be like how do you get these kind of calcified large incumbents who operate in a very decentralized way, have very low risk appetite and um you kn..."
The Death Spiral of Mining Innovation
In this segment, the challenges of introducing new technologies into the mining industry are discussed. The slow pace of infrastructure development and the reluctance of operators to adopt new solutions create a 'death spiral' for innovation. The conversation highlights the difficulties faced by tech companies trying to penetrate a conservative industry that is slow to change.
"innovation with the same risk every single time. Um, and that's where kind of like spot technical solutions are challenging to sell into the mining industry. and they'll do pilots. They'll definitely ..."
Geopolitical Context of Mining
This segment explores the geopolitical dynamics affecting the mining industry, particularly the rapid growth of Chinese companies in the sector. The discussion emphasizes the importance of government support and a skilled labor pool in fostering a competitive mining environment, contrasting it with the slower pace of Western companies.
"Um, and so there's a lot of folks that are doing like SAS SAS products to which is kind of the lowest cost way to get into um to like generate uplift in a in a in a mining project or or a minerals ref..."
The Splintering of Mining Roles
The conversation delves into the current structure of the mining industry, where junior mining companies focus on exploration while major companies handle development. This segment discusses the challenges faced by junior companies in securing funding and the difficulties in discovering large enough resources to attract major investments.
"that the talent pool is insane. Like it is not just a large talent pool. It is a large skilled experienced talent pool. I was in Indonesia um in February and was kind of visiting one of the uh recent ..."
Mariana's Efficient Mining Approach
Turner Caldwell explains Mariana Minerals' strategy to capitalize on subscale mining assets. The segment discusses how Mariana aims to efficiently bring these assets into production, leveraging their expertise to operate at a scale that competes with larger mining companies.
"they'll go into this kind of orphan period uh is what it's called in the industry. Um, and it's hard for them to break out of that orphan period. And that's kind of where we see our ability to kind of..."
Mariana's Vertically Integrated Model
In this segment, Turner outlines Mariana's vertically integrated approach to mining and refining. He explains how the company focuses on the entire minerals value chain, from engineering and permitting to construction and operation, emphasizing the need for a skilled team to navigate labor shortages in the industry.
"Yeah. Yeah. Well, maybe then I I think this might be a a good opportunity then to talk a little bit more about like what is Mariana's product? Like you said a few minutes ago, you're not a you're not ..."
Leveraging Technology in Mining Operations
This segment discusses how Mariana Minerals is utilizing recent advances in technology to automate workflows in construction and mining. The conversation highlights the importance of reducing latency and improving data access to enhance project management and operational efficiency.
"fundamental thesis is that the um with a contracting labor pool. Um you know you have to start with an awesome team. The table stakes is that you build an awesome team. Um but how do you enable 200 pe..."
Plant OS: Automating Refining Processes
Turner introduces the concept of Plant OS, a software stack designed to automate chemical processing and refining operations. This segment emphasizes the potential for significant efficiency gains by removing human decision-making from the process, allowing for better management of complex refining operations.
"democratize access to data fundamentally um, and run construction projects like manufacturing facilities. Um, and it starts there. And and the reason construction and mining are so kind of integrated,..."
Optimizing Mineral Recovery
The discussion focuses on the critical importance of maximizing metal recovery in refining processes. Turner explains how Mariana aims to optimize operations by adapting to the variability of feed materials, thereby reducing costs and improving overall efficiency in mineral processing.
"You have the sensing and telemetry. You have the actuators to control how the plant operates. And um you know they're you know imagine like tea operating uh humanoid robots like forever like that is w..."
Challenges in Commissioning Refineries
In this segment, the challenges faced by Western companies in commissioning refineries are discussed. Turner contrasts the lengthy timelines of Western projects with the rapid commissioning capabilities of Chinese companies, highlighting the urgent need for improved efficiency in building and operating mining infrastructure.
"means is that the upstream unit operations, think of a refinery as like 20 unit operations kind of all in series in a in a relatively simple refinery. Um the upstream operations relatively simple. Yea..."
Challenges in Refinery Commissioning
This segment addresses the significant delays in commissioning new refineries compared to those in China. The speaker outlines the lengthy timelines faced by Western companies, which can take two to four years, and the implications of these delays on the overall mining and refining capacity needed to meet demand. The discussion emphasizes the urgency of improving these timelines to support the growing need for critical minerals.
"So how long does it take to bring a refining to commission a refinery today? Uh I mean there are some refineries that were built recently that are still not commissioned. Um the like they were built i..."
Integrating Technology in Mining
The conversation shifts to the integration of technology in mining operations. The speaker discusses the importance of leveraging commercially demonstrated unit operations and optimizing software systems for better control of mining facilities. The focus is on enhancing operational efficiency and addressing bottlenecks in the supply chain, particularly in sourcing equipment and materials.
"So how do you think about like you're building a a company that mines and refineses a product? There's a lot of tech that you can interject at essentially every step of that process. like how are you ..."
Navigating Supply Chain Challenges
In this segment, the discussion revolves around the broken industrial supply base for mining equipment and the challenges of sourcing materials domestically versus internationally. The speaker highlights the long lead times for equipment from Australia compared to China, underscoring the need for a more robust supply chain to support mining operations in the U.S.
"bunch of bottlenecks in building these facilities that that we will need to solve. I mean the like industrial supply base just for like manufacturing tanks is broken. Like the kind of there's specialt..."
The Case for Vertical Integration
This segment explores the rationale behind pursuing a vertical integration strategy in the mining industry. The speakers discuss the necessity of controlling the entire lifecycle of metal production to achieve efficiency gains. They emphasize the geopolitical urgency and the technological advancements that make this an opportune time to invest in domestic mining capabilities.
"actually something that we think that RL and will enable with like a pretty meaningful like pace adjustment. Um where you don't need the humans to kind of like fine-tune the process conditions around ..."
Critical Minerals and Market Dynamics
The final segment delves into the critical minerals needed for future technological advancements, including lithium, copper, and nickel. The speakers discuss the forecasted demand for these metals and the challenges of meeting that demand, particularly in light of geopolitical dynamics and the need for innovative processing technologies. The conversation highlights the importance of investing in these minerals to support the electrification of various industries.
"um you know e even my you know my my conservationist mother who I think if like we had had this conversation 5 years ago she would have clutched her pearls she doesn't wear pearls but she would have c..."
Permitting Challenges in U.S. Mining
Turner Caldwell outlines the significant permitting challenges faced by the mining industry in the U.S. He explains how the lengthy approval processes hinder exploration and development of new mines, contrasting the U.S. with faster-moving countries like Australia and Canada.
"Um and that's why we're focused on lithium. Copper um copper just has this like macro trend that is like pretty uh hard to ignore. Um we're just going to need an insane amount of copper. copper grids ..."
Exploration and Resource Availability
Caldwell emphasizes that the U.S. has abundant natural resources but suffers from a lack of exploration activity due to stringent permitting requirements. He discusses the geological potential for rare earth minerals and the need to streamline exploration processes to unlock these resources.
"know you don't know Canada for for moving quickly. What are some of like the the the bottlenecks there? What why what does America need to do to accelerate this as as one of these companies trying to ..."
Talent Pool and Industry Perception
In this segment, Caldwell addresses the talent pool issue in the mining industry, noting that the lengthy permitting processes deter skilled workers. He highlights the recent positive shifts in government attitudes towards mining and the importance of making the industry more appealing to new talent.
"Yeah. We haven't either we haven't looked for it or it's Yeah. Well, it's it's hard to find in like high concentrations that are minable which we're trying to kind of like drop the percentage requirem..."
Streamlining Permitting Processes
Caldwell discusses the need for efficiency in the permitting process from discovery to operational status. He suggests that improving the review of environmental permits and increasing accountability in permitting offices could significantly enhance project timelines in the mining sector.
"then I, you know, I think the permitting requirements broadly for going from a discovery to a to an operating asset there there's a there's a big there should be a big focus on kind of efficiency in r..."
Government Support for Mining Demand
Caldwell outlines recommendations for government support to bolster the U.S. mining industry, emphasizing the importance of demand-side support such as offtake agreements and price stability. He discusses how these measures could attract private capital and stabilize the market for critical minerals.
"What what else aside from kind of permitting efficiency? Um what are other things that if you you know if you could send a list of recommendations to the government for what they should do to support ..."
International Strategy for Resource Acquisition
In this segment, Caldwell shares insights on Mariana Minerals' international strategy for resource acquisition. He explains the necessity of expanding operations beyond the U.S. to secure critical minerals and the importance of developing a scalable platform for future growth.
"um you know participating in the capital stack is is important. I think lowering the hooks or the the um uh you know the extra burden that comes in with receiving government funds um is important and ..."
Vision for the Future of Mining
Caldwell concludes with a vision for the future of Mariana Minerals, aiming to rebuild the capability to construct large-scale infrastructure and operate complex mineral plants. He expresses the goal of completing ten projects in ten years while ensuring a sustainable and efficient approach to mining.
"expand overseas um and underwater maybe. When we look back a decade from now, what's the single clearest indicator that Mariana has achieved what it set out to do? we won't be as worried about our abi..."