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The Torch of Progress - Ep. 3 - Patrick Collison, CEO of Stripe
26 segments available
In the third episode of The Torch of Progress, we sit down with Patrick Collison, the Co-founder and CEO of Stripe. We discuss progress studies, his perspective on the sciences, Effective Altruism, on being a self-described 'fallibilist,' and the entrepreneurial mindset. Key Topics: - The rate of scientific progress and whether it's slowing down. - Progress Studies at large and Patrick's views on Effective Altruism - On being a self-described 'fallibilist' and the entrepreneurial mindset. - Q&A from students and attendees, and much more. In this episode we discuss: (0:15) Intro to Progress Studies for Young Scholars (0:50) Past guest speakers - see the replay on Youtube (1:00) Upcoming guests - Max Roser, Deridre Nansen McCloskey, Joel Mokyr (2:00) Introductions: Jason Crawford with Roots of Progress and Patrick Collison, CEO & co-founder of Stripe (3:00) Patrick talks about Stripe, an online payment system (5:42) Fast Grants for Covid-19 research: What have you learned and what does the future of Fast Grants look like? (13:00) The great corporate research labs (Bell Labs, Xerox PARC) - are they a thing of the past? If so, was that natural? Is there something new we should move to? Should we try to bring it back? (15:55) If you were asked to write a report on the future of science and research, like the Endless Frontier Memo by Vannevar Bush in 1945, what would you say? (18:50) - If you had to give society a progress KPI (key performance indicator), what are the key metrics? (23:40) what are the metrics people use to argue if science is slowing down? Scott Alexander said, "Constant progress in science in response to exponential increases in inputs ought to be our null hypothesis." What is your take on this? (29:45) Compare/contrast effective altruism and progress studies (33:28) If we just run full throttle ahead with progress, what about the risk that we are not careful enough and we get some global catastrophe? (36:05) Your twitter bio describes you as a fallibilist optimist. What does this mean and why did you choose those terms? (39:50) What advice that is commonly given to teens is actually wrong? (43:10) Follow Patrick on twitter @patrickc and online patrickcollison.com Q&A (43:50) What do you think about the future of the internet as the rate of adoption is slowing? Do you see it becoming increasingly zero-sum / less spending on r&d? (46:00) Some people have suggested a Manhattan Project for Covid-19. Is that what Fast Grants is doing? If not, is something like that even feasible anymore? (47:19) You mentioned the existential risk that comes with more progress can be mitigated. What do we need to do to mitigate it? (48:10) You gave the advice to keep learning another 5-10 years, but that is not what you did (started a company at a young age). Why? (50:35) Big companies need an effective organizational structure to avoid getting more inefficient and less innovative. What have you done with Stripe to keep it innovative and nimble? (54:06) How did you found a company? How did you know where to start and what steps to take? (55:40) What do you think about studying liberal arts if in college for technology? Links: Progress Studies for Young Scholars: progressstudies.school The Academy of Thought and Industry: thoughtandindustry.com The Roots of Progress Blog: rootsofprogress.org/ Higher Ground Education: tohigherground.org Guidepost Montessori: guidepostmontessori.com
Segments Timeline
Introduction to Progress Studies
In this segment, Jason Crawford introduces the Torch of Progress series and the Progress Studies for Young Scholars program. He outlines the program's goals of providing high school students with a foundation in the history of technology and economic growth, setting the stage for a deeper discussion with Patrick Collison.
"welcome everybody to this series the torch of progress this is the speaker series associated with our online high school summer program called progress studies for young scholars progress studies for ..."
Stripe: Revolutionizing Online Payments
Patrick Collison shares insights about Stripe, the online payment system he co-founded. He discusses its evolution from a simple payment processor to a comprehensive platform for moving money globally, emphasizing its role in facilitating economic activity through software.
"about stripe I don't know what you share publicly but like if you can tell us your revenue or your you know your market cap or your or how many amazing customers you have or whatever it is that you te..."
Fast Grants: A Response to COVID-19
Patrick explains the inception of Fast Grants, a program launched to expedite funding for COVID-19 research. He discusses the challenges faced by traditional funding bodies in responding quickly to urgent scientific needs and highlights the success of Fast Grants in supporting top scientists.
"more broadly a metric that we care a lot about and we sort of try to assess as best we can is what's our counterfactual significant you know we talk about the idea of growing the GDP of the Internet a..."
Lessons from Fast Grants
In this segment, Patrick reflects on the unexpected lessons learned from the Fast Grants initiative. He discusses the surprising lack of rapid response from established institutions and the potential for individuals to make significant impacts in urgent situations.
"encouraging there are really promising drug candidates already developed there are you know things that are allowed even with the trials or vaccine candidates and so you know if one posits or accepts ..."
The Fate of Corporate Research Labs
Patrick discusses the decline of corporate research labs like Bell Labs and Xerox PARC. He questions whether this trend is natural and explores what new models of research and development might emerge in their place.
"exceptionally small and and in fact I'm Berkeley published an article now that maybe a month ago saying that they'd applied or Berkeley scientists that applied for all kinds of repurposing zuv an inn ..."
Compensation and Innovation
In this segment, Patrick Collison analyzes how corporate research labs historically attracted talent through higher compensation compared to academia. He discusses the challenges of replicating this model today, given the multitude of lucrative opportunities available for top scientists and the changing landscape of innovation.
"natural like is there something new we should be moving on to or should we be trying to bring that back yeah I wonder about that a lot and I was either kind of various theories on it one thing that I ..."
Rethinking the Future of Science Funding
Collison reflects on the Endless Frontier Memo by Vannevar Bush and critiques the centralized approach to science funding it proposed. He advocates for a decentralized, heterogeneous system that encourages diverse approaches to scientific research, emphasizing the need for multiple funding bodies to foster innovation.
"way I you know the counter-argument obviously would be that well you know maybe there was like a kind of thinking maybe a sort of ambition maybe a willingness you know in monopolies like Bell Labs or ..."
The Evolution of Science Funding
In this segment, Patrick discusses the historical context of federal funding in science, noting its recent dominance and the controversies surrounding it. He argues for a return to a more diversified funding landscape that empowers scientists as quasi-entrepreneurs, fostering a healthier research ecosystem.
"kind of chronitons and destructors and dynamics and the main thing that I would do if writing such a report today is to argue for a kind of heterogeneity decentralization and competing approaches and ..."
Key Performance Indicators for Progress
Collison proposes key performance indicators (KPIs) for measuring societal progress, emphasizing the importance of GDP as a metric despite its critiques. He discusses the correlation between GDP, happiness, and life expectancy, while also advocating for a broader dashboard that includes cultural and scientific metrics.
"government getting more closely involved was actually quite controversial and many scientists at the time opposed it I think accurately foreseeing that much of the sort of that kind of hegemonic effec..."
Cultural Dynamics and Progress
In this segment, Patrick Collison elaborates on the cultural characteristics that foster progress, emphasizing the importance of heterodoxy and liberal values. He discusses how cultural openness to diverse ideas can significantly impact innovation and scientific advancement.
"are the key metrics on there I mean while all of the critiques of GDP and GDP per capita are valid I think you know if one just had to choose a single metric I really think GDP is is pretty good like ..."
The Interplay of Science and Entrepreneurship
Collison examines the relationship between scientific discovery and entrepreneurship, suggesting that successful entrepreneurship often stems from scientific advancements. He highlights the importance of fostering environments that support both scientific and business innovation.
"having said that in history you have to since they say for a complete dashboard um-hmm I guess okay you want metrics rent the the way I have imagined that kind of production function of of I guess pro..."
Measuring Inequality and Progress
In this segment, Patrick discusses the importance of measuring inequality in consumption as a metric for societal progress. He emphasizes the need to assess how effectively resources are distributed among different socioeconomic groups to gauge overall progress.
"secondly no metrics at the scientific process you know through distance cutting out a little but I would really think hard about what will we look at the tell to want to read the scientific process is..."
Research Productivity and Scientific Progress
Collison addresses the debate surrounding research productivity and whether science is slowing down. He references Scott Alexander's perspective on the relationship between research inputs and outputs, setting the stage for a deeper discussion on the metrics of scientific advancement.
"material way and then at the median or and choose your other percentile you tell okay well how effectively are we actually distributing it and and both of course are important so roughly speaking I th..."
Is Science Slowing Down?
Collison addresses the debate on whether scientific progress is slowing down, referencing Scott Alexander's argument that constant progress should be the null hypothesis. He discusses the implications of this perspective and how it conflicts with observed data on economic growth.
"so what do you think on this issue yeah Michael and I actually debated this question quite a bit and and first of all I recollection is that in Scotts posts he actually acknowledges that that kind of ..."
The Nature of Ideas and Their Impact
Patrick elaborates on the nature of ideas, asserting that significant discoveries can be deployed across large economies, leading to widespread benefits. He emphasizes the scale invariance of knowledge and how impactful ideas can emerge from small groups.
"distribution mechanisms we have can sustain an economy that growth so so again I think if he's right I think it actually has no pretty material additional consequences that will have to start really r..."
Challenging the Null Hypothesis
Collison critiques the notion that exponential increases in research inputs should lead to constant scientific progress. He argues that if this hypothesis is incorrect, it could have serious implications for our understanding of progress and the future of innovation.
"people or larger economies and and so three is I think a kind of scale invariance to knowledge and you know you would and i again i think probably intuition difference comes from are you imagining sor..."
Effective Altruism vs. Progress Studies
In this segment, Collison compares the Effective Altruism movement with Progress Studies. He discusses the importance of diverse approaches to problem-solving and critiques the focus of Effective Altruism on quantifiable metrics, suggesting that it may overlook significant long-term contributions to society.
"understanding it right but let me actually actually drill in on this a bit with a bit of an analogy like so if you look at the growth of a company and I I'm going to just guess that the following appl..."
Existential Risks and Technological Progress
Collison addresses concerns about existential risks associated with rapid technological progress. He argues that while caution is necessary, historically, the issue has often been too little progress rather than too much, and he believes that we can mitigate risks without stifling innovation.
"think that actually super interesting yeah okay I want to move on to some other topics um what do you think about so compare and contrast effective altruism movement with progress studies and I would ..."
Balancing Progress and Caution
In this concluding segment, Collison reflects on the balance between fostering technological advancement and managing potential risks. He acknowledges the importance of addressing existential threats while advocating for continued progress, suggesting that effective mitigation strategies can be developed.
"a good shift on the margin I think EA has been great and and I'm so delighted that they have but that they have had the progress they they've had know if the question is well kind of should everyone b..."
The Misguided Advice to Teens
Patrick reflects on common advice given to teenagers, particularly the notion of being precocious or overly talented. He warns against the dangers of underestimating the importance of continued learning and growth. Instead, he encourages teens to embrace a mindset of self-improvement and to recognize that there is still much to learn before committing to definitive career paths.
"want to ask you I've got I've got two more and then we'll go to questions for the audience so your Twitter bio describes you as fallibilist optimist what are those terms mean and why did you choose th..."
The Importance of Knowledge Acquisition
In this segment, Patrick emphasizes the value of knowledge acquisition for teenagers. He advises them to be cautious about overestimating their capabilities and to engage in a deeper understanding of their fields before making significant commitments. He shares his own experiences and the lessons he learned about the importance of continuous learning and the potential pitfalls of early success.
"advice has given as a teenager or that you have heard given - yeah yeah given generally you know common wisdom for teens that should be appended I think that I'm really a bit about like realizing or t..."
Future of the Internet and R&D
Patrick discusses the future of the internet as its rate of adoption slows. He reflects on the integration of the internet into society and the economy, suggesting that we are still in the early stages of its potential. He also critiques the current state of software development, arguing that there is still much room for improvement and innovation in the field.
"I'm definitive courses of action all right great and just so everybody knows Patrick has a website Patrick Collison comm where he has a bunch of links and writings including an advice page for teens b..."
Fast Grants vs. Manhattan Project
In this segment, Patrick addresses the comparison between Fast Grants and the Manhattan Project for COVID-19. He explains that while Fast Grants aims to enable the best researchers, it does not operate as a centralized project like the Manhattan Project. He discusses the challenges of mobilizing resources and expertise in the current context.
"great ok another question some people have suggested a Manhattan Project for covin 19 is that what fast grants is doing if not is something like that a Manhattan or Apollo project even feasible anymor..."
Mitigating Existential Risks
Patrick explores the existential risks associated with technological progress and discusses potential strategies for mitigation. He reflects on historical perspectives and emphasizes the need for ongoing dialogue and research to address these risks effectively. He acknowledges the complexity of the issue and the importance of learning from past experiences.
"prove sufficient great you mentioned that existential risk the reacts essential risk that comes with more progress could be mitigated what do we need to do to mitigate those risks are there general ph..."
Founding a Company: A Personal Perspective
Patrick shares insights into his entrepreneurial journey, influenced by his parents' backgrounds as entrepreneurs. He recounts how starting companies felt natural to him and the role of Y Combinator in supporting his ventures, illustrating the importance of connections and taking action in entrepreneurship.
"let's see I am going to we've got a lot of questions and probably won't be able to get to all of them in the next eight minutes so I'm going to sift filter and interpret a little bit there's a couple ..."
The Value of Liberal Arts in Technology
In this segment, Patrick discusses the significance of studying liberal arts for those pursuing technology careers. He argues that understanding culture and philosophy is crucial and emphasizes the need to study impactful works that can inform innovative thinking in technology.
"companies just because you know it was but you did um and so so it was just well you know you Google you know incorporate company into the followed the instructions that we were also lucky that early ..."