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The 48 Hour Rule To Sorting Through Fake News | Scott Adams Interview
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From inside our reassuring bubbles of like-minded discourse, swirling around in the chaos of today’s divisive world, we often can’t tell the difference between genius and stupidity, and we are often guessing about how to interpret situations based on our own view of facts, our own biases, and the emotions we feel. There’s plenty of information out there on hand to give us the straight facts, but it’s so mired in misinformation (and information that doesn’t support what we’re going to believe anyway) that we forgive ourselves for being uninformed. But what if the big problem is that we just don’t know how — or are unwilling — to think productively? On this episode we talk to Scott Adams, Dilbert creator and author of Loserthink: How Untrained Brains Are Ruining America, who always brings fascinating (and often controversial) discussion to the table. We dig into what Scott means by the term “loserthink” and how we can spot it in others while avoiding it in ourselves, critical thinking, when ego isn’t our enemy, how to poke holes in bad arguments, how to spot fake news, failing mental models, and much more. ✍️ Full show notes and worksheet for this episode: https://jordanharbinger.com/273 What We Discuss with Scott Adams: 🤔 Why the term “loserthink” isn’t about being uninformed — it’s about unproductive thinking. 🤔 Mental models we use that sometimes fail us, and thinking traps that we fall into when we’re looking to interpret communication, evaluate facts or evidence, and form opinions. 🤔 How to evaluate fake news and see why the business models of many media outlets have been redesigned to keep us engaged at the expense of accuracy and truth. 🤔 When and how to dial down our ego so we can clarify our thinking, and also when and how we can use our ego as a tool to move forward. 🤔 Ways to evaluate and poke holes in bad arguments, and strengthen our own methods of thinking and arguing. 🤔 And much more… 📖 Loserthink: How Untrained Brains Are Ruining America by Scott Adams Buy on Amazon https://geni.us/tSds0M Want to watch more in-depth interviews with some of the world’s most amazing and successful people click here for more full episodes - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FNbAQB8BYtM&list=PLxuPu-uyanrrBgAl5-76enemxVsxFjnEQ&index=1 Never miss a single incredible insight by subscribing to the Jordan Harbinger Show here http://www.youtube.com/THEJORDANHARBINGERSHOW?sub_confirmation=1 Welcome to the Jordan Harbinger Show, a podcast where each week you get to join a conversation with some of the world’s highest achievers. I’ll ask them the tough questions to tease out their top tips so that you can reach levels of personal growth and mastery that you never imagined possible. Subscribe to the podcast: http://jordanharbinger.com/subscribe/ Learn more about Jordan: http://jordanharbinger.com/ #interview #podcast #jordanharbinger #jordan #harbinger #jhs #entertainment #technology #personaldevelopment #scottadams
Segments Timeline
Understanding Loserthink
Scott Adams introduces the concept of 'loserthink,' clarifying that it refers to unproductive thinking techniques rather than labeling individuals as losers. He emphasizes the importance of recognizing bad examples of thinking and how to correct them, using practical strategies to remove emotion from discussions.
"so loser think the news great title by the way I'm sure that's one of those where people think ah I do that I'm gonna pick that up I think everybody has a different idea what I mean by it yeah so I us..."
The Power of Evidence
In this segment, Adams discusses the effectiveness of using printed evidence to challenge someone's flawed reasoning. He explains how presenting a page from a book can lend credibility to an argument and help others see the objective flaws in their thinking without escalating emotional responses.
"works for me to take emotion out of the equation but it it did it did receive some emotion in return in the form of somebody who doubled down and their loser think and decided that I was just being an..."
The Importance of Diverse Thinking
Adams highlights the significance of being exposed to various fields of study to develop productive thinking skills. He contrasts the analytical tools of individuals with different educational backgrounds, illustrating how a lack of diverse knowledge can lead to unproductive conclusions.
"of reasoning yeah if you're doing it on Twitter normally you can fit like a half a page of explanation in there see right Hey look at this this photo here's an image because I didn't feel like typing ..."
The Talent Stack Advantage
Scott Adams shares his personal experience of building a 'talent stack' through diverse education and skills, including economics and law. He explains how this combination allows for a broader perspective and better problem-solving abilities, encouraging listeners to cultivate their own unique skill sets.
"all you need yeah and you can see in five minutes on Twitter that that's clearly not the case oh yeah I mean I I don't know if you knew this but the listeners often do I studied economics and have a l..."
The One Variable Problem
In this segment, Adams discusses the pitfalls of oversimplifying complex issues to a single variable. He warns against the dangers of certainty in complicated matters and emphasizes the need for humility and a broader understanding to avoid falling into the trap of loserthink.
"superpower I use you as my example I can't think of many things that would be more useful in the modern world than a knowledge of economics law and now what you're doing here communication from the te..."
Evaluating Leadership Performance
Adams critiques the common practice of evaluating political leaders based on simplistic metrics. He argues that without proper context and comparison, judgments about a president's performance can be misleading, highlighting the need for a nuanced understanding of economic cycles.
"people don't have electricity so like yes it's bad for the soil but what's really bad for these people who live there is the fact that they don't have clean water because they don't have electricity y..."
The Role of Economic Context
Scott Adams elaborates on how economic performance should be viewed in context, using historical comparisons to illustrate his point. He emphasizes that understanding the broader economic landscape is crucial for making informed judgments about leadership effectiveness.
"thinking like a broad set of skills and diverse thinking and I think a lot of people don't necessarily have that I certainly even with my broad set of skills and diverse thinking realize even more tha..."
The Complexity of Economic Indicators
In this segment, Adams discusses the complexity of economic indicators and how they can be misinterpreted. He warns against drawing conclusions from short-term data without considering the long-term implications and the context of previous administrations.
"scientists the economists the businessperson a lot of other domains would say well you can't really tell anything until you've compared it to something that is a sensible comparison and president she ..."
Understanding Economic Recovery
Adams explains the dynamics of economic recovery, particularly how initial gains can be misleading. He discusses the importance of recognizing the conditions under which economic improvements occur and how they relate to previous downturns.
"time this two year period it's like well is that from the current administration the previous administration or one that came so far before that that we built infrastructure for whatever we were enjoy..."
The Right Leadership for Economic Challenges
Scott Adams reflects on the qualities of effective leadership during economic crises. He contrasts the calm demeanor of past leaders with the unpredictability of others, suggesting that the right personality can significantly impact public confidence and economic recovery.
"trained you're ready to go so the first gains should be the easy ones once you get to the end of an improvement you've got the really hardcore hard to employee people and we're down to three point fiv..."
The Impact of Economic Background on Perception
In this segment, Adams discusses how individuals with different educational backgrounds interpret economic data. He emphasizes the need for critical thinking and a comprehensive understanding of economics to avoid falling prey to simplistic narratives.
"thrown a President Trump into that situation maybe you got problems because he's you know he's a little more unpredictable and people maybe are not as comfortable but he came in when the economy was a..."
The Manipulation of Statistics
Adams warns about the manipulation of statistics in political discourse. He explains how selective data presentation can mislead the public and emphasizes the importance of critical analysis to discern the truth behind economic claims.
"music majors and the you know the the art majors are looking at the percentages and saying I know Obama had a bigger percentage game than Trump he must be the good one yeah it is easy to look at stats..."
The Sunk Cost Fallacy
Scott Adams introduces the concept of the sunk cost fallacy, explaining how past investments should not dictate future decisions. He stresses the importance of rational decision-making based on current circumstances rather than emotional attachments to previous expenditures.
"things right yeah and people who have experience like I do which is four years in my day job in corporate America I was supposed to do financial projections and people who see it from the outside say ..."
The Power of Naming Concepts
Scott Adams discusses how naming concepts can empower them, using Elon Musk's advice to his staff to avoid actions that could appear in a Dilbert cartoon as an example. He explains that by introducing the term 'loserthink,' he aims to help people recognize and mock unproductive thinking patterns, emphasizing the role of mockery as a tool for social correction.
"putting a word on things gives it power it doesn't have as a as a concept as to be explained the best example I give that in looser think is that when Elon Musk wanted to explain to his staff what the..."
Understanding Sunk Costs
In this segment, Adams explains the economic principle of sunk costs, emphasizing that past expenditures should not influence future decisions. He highlights the importance of recognizing this fallacy to avoid unproductive thinking and encourages listeners to question their mental models and assumptions.
"collecting a bunch of bad thinking technique so that people could mock it more easily right so mocking or mockery is useful because basically it shames unwanted behavior mockery is one of the most pow..."
The 48-Hour Rule of News
Scott Adams introduces the '48-hour rule' for evaluating news, suggesting that most sensational stories are overturned within two days. He argues that waiting for more context can lead to better-informed opinions and cautions against reacting too quickly to breaking news, especially in politically charged situations.
"something that I've got plenty of notes on here that I want to dive into soon as well and this show is largely about freeing people from what you call mental prisons I want people to question everythi..."
The Impact of Media Business Models
Adams discusses how the changing business models of news media prioritize engagement over accuracy, leading to a cycle of misinformation. He draws parallels to Malcolm Gladwell's observations on emotional perception, explaining how sensationalized news can distort public understanding and critical thinking.
"mentioned the business model of the news has changed let's talk about this because this affects everyone's thinking and makes it less accurate whereas people think they're becoming more accurate becau..."
Measuring What Matters in News
In this segment, Adams explains the principle that 'what is measured is what is managed' in the news industry. He critiques how news outlets focus on metrics that drive clicks rather than informing the public, leading to a prevalence of sensationalism and misinformation.
"ever were with the TV off yeah the the big problem that made everything bad in the news world is when technology got us to the point where we could measure with great specificity real precision what w..."
The Nature of News and Truth
Scott Adams elaborates on the nature of news, asserting that the most attention-grabbing stories are often the least true. He emphasizes the importance of skepticism and patience in consuming news, particularly in politically charged contexts where misinformation can spread rapidly.
"yeah you see headlines now even and even in reputable and I hate using air quotes but I'm gonna do it again even in reputable sources you'll read a headline and you if you ever see comments sections p..."
The Importance of Context in News
Adams stresses the significance of context in news reporting, particularly in times of crisis. He advises listeners to reserve judgment for 48 hours to allow for a clearer understanding of events, highlighting how initial reports can often lack crucial information.
"universally true of anything in politics today the 48 hours later the other side is gonna say here's the context you left them and it really will be important context so we should follow this 48 hour ..."
Avoiding Cognitive Lock-In
In this segment, Adams discusses the cognitive lock-in that occurs when individuals form opinions based on initial information. He encourages listeners to remain open-minded and to actively seek out opposing viewpoints to avoid being trapped in outdated or incorrect beliefs.
"stories those might be manufactured so the individual anecdotes might not be true although I I do to be fair I have a friend in Syria right now right there who's managing some humanitarian stuff and i..."
Sampling Different News Perspectives
Scott Adams advocates for consuming news from multiple sources to gain a balanced perspective. He explains that understanding differing viewpoints can help individuals discern facts from misinformation, emphasizing the importance of critical thinking in today's media landscape.
"information into your system right and one of the techniques that I recommend and it seems incredibly obvious except people don't know don't do it which is you just have to sample the other side's new..."
The Challenge of Public Discourse
Adams reflects on the challenges of honest public discourse in a polarized environment. He shares his personal experiences with backlash for expressing unpopular opinions and discusses the economic implications of being outspoken in today's media climate.
"is a hurricane coming pack your stuff and get out of there well whether or not it's gonna be as severe as they all say I don't really want to find out by being the first person to get blown off the ro..."
The Value of Honesty in Communication
In this closing segment, Scott Adams emphasizes the importance of honesty in public discourse. He discusses his commitment to providing objective insights, even when they contradict popular opinion, and highlights the need for more honest voices in the media landscape.
"out for you to be such a loudmouth on Twitter I had periscope yeah that was correct I made a conscious choice that there are only a few people in the country probably just a few maybe a handful who wo..."
Imagination and Understanding Context
Scott Adams introduces the concept of the 'lack of imagination problem,' where people fail to consider multiple explanations for a set of facts. He illustrates this with a personal anecdote about his dirty car, highlighting how irrational fears can shape our perceptions. This segment encourages listeners to broaden their thinking and consider alternative viewpoints.
"your vote to matter I know that's a really cynical perspective and maybe I shouldn't have that but you know you just made me wonder I wonder if there are just a few key battleground states where if on..."
The Complexity of Political Narratives
Adams reflects on the complexities of political narratives and how they can be misinterpreted. He discusses the importance of recognizing that there may be multiple reasons behind political actions, urging listeners to avoid jumping to conclusions based on limited information. This segment emphasizes critical thinking in evaluating political discourse.
"well let me refer ulster to something from my book there's one problem that we all have and I certainly fall into this all the time and the best you can do is is be aware that it could happen I call i..."
The Weakness of Labeling in Arguments
Scott Adams critiques the tendency to label opponents instead of addressing their arguments. He explains how labeling weakens discourse and suggests that effective debate should focus on deconstructing arguments rather than resorting to name-calling. This segment highlights the importance of strong reasoning in public discussions.
"Public instruction's meaning you know an ATM a self-checkout or most of our car washes you know have an element where you've got to do something yourself and I'm sure that I'll go into this car wash I..."
The Laundry List of Arguments
In this segment, Adams discusses the concept of the 'laundry list' in arguments, where individuals present multiple reasons to support a claim. He argues that if someone cannot identify their strongest point, it indicates a lack of a solid argument. This segment encourages listeners to critically evaluate the strength of arguments presented in public discourse.
"do that instead of just saying here's all these reasons that you're actually wrong yeah the the classic examples of course are the abortion question so if if your definition of life is that it starts ..."
Subjective Reality and Humility
Scott Adams explores the idea of subjective reality, suggesting that both sides in a debate may be wrong in different ways. He emphasizes the importance of humility in discussions, recognizing that context is often missing from arguments. This segment encourages listeners to approach debates with an open mind and a willingness to consider multiple perspectives.
"in loser think so I really like that so if you're sitting around thinking of why someone's a big mean jerk or a nasty person or a [ __ ] or whatever racist or whatever instead of saying here's where y..."
Understanding Half Opinions
In this segment, Scott Adams introduces the concept of 'half opinions,' where arguments often focus on either costs or benefits without considering the full picture. He illustrates how debates can become unproductive when both sides fail to acknowledge the other half of the argument, leading to misunderstandings and ineffective discussions.
"if I had to you know sort of bet on a lot of complicated debates yeah and you said all right you got a place you're bad is this one right here this one right I think I would usually put it on both wro..."
The Role of Ego in Decision Making
Scott Adams explains how ego can influence our decision-making processes, often leading us to prioritize being right over effective communication. He shares personal anecdotes about how ego can hinder professional growth and emphasizes the importance of viewing ego as a tool rather than an identity, allowing for more productive interactions.
"no nobody says oh yeah that's a good point I should include the cost and the benefits people don't do that yeah the idea of being an advocate versus a judge I think that there's there's we could expla..."
Dialing Down Your Ego
This segment focuses on practical strategies for managing ego, such as journaling predictions and recognizing when we are wrong. Scott Adams discusses how dialing down ego can lead to better outcomes in discussions and decision-making, encouraging listeners to be open to differing viewpoints and to question their own beliefs.
"in our daily lives we don't do anything like that no and it's because it's inefficient and we're not evolved to go well ninety to six-day deliberation on whether or not this mattress commercial is rea..."
The Dangers of Ego in Arguments
Scott Adams shares insights on how ego can cloud judgment during arguments, often leading to defensiveness instead of constructive dialogue. He reflects on personal experiences where ego influenced his reactions and stresses the importance of being receptive to feedback, especially in heated discussions.
"but you don't want to keep it there you ought to be able to dial it down just as easily when you're in some complicated conversation and you think well I I think I know the right thing to do here but ..."
Spotting Fake News: The 48 Hour Rule
In this segment, Scott Adams outlines his strategy for identifying fake news, emphasizing the '48 hour rule'—if a story seems too outrageous, it likely isn't true. He advises checking multiple news sources and highlights the importance of skepticism in evaluating information, particularly in today's media landscape.
"over effectiveness classic loser think that's the I don't know is that your like button on the end of the chapter there yeah I mean I I had the job opportunity once back in my corporate days where a h..."
The 20-Year Rule: Judging Past Actions
Scott Adams presents the '20-year rule,' suggesting that we should not judge individuals by their actions from two decades ago. He argues that people change over time and that past mistakes should not define current character, except in extreme cases. This perspective encourages a more forgiving approach to evaluating others.
"if only one of them is and it doesn't matter which one that's that's the other thing then it probably is not you'll probably learn later that it's not a fact so those are the big ones and you know if ..."
The Impact of Social Media on Reputation
Adams discusses the dangers of social media in preserving and amplifying past mistakes, which can haunt individuals long after they have changed. He reflects on how today's technology can unfairly judge people based on actions from their youth, emphasizing the need for a more nuanced understanding of personal growth.
"now most people improve throughout most of their life that if you have a what I'd call the ideal life arc you start as a selfish little baby who can't do anything but take you know you you get to the ..."
Forgiveness and Personal Growth
In this segment, Scott Adams advocates for forgiveness and understanding that individuals evolve over time. He argues that judging someone by their past actions, especially if they have changed, is counterproductive. This discussion highlights the importance of focusing on how people respond to their past rather than the past itself.
"situations so if I see for example some governor who were black face 30 years ago certainly don't you know I don't endorse it or approve of it but I also don't count it is that person the same person ..."
The Magic Question: Clarifying Misunderstandings
Scott Adams introduces a powerful technique for resolving arguments by asking the 'magic question.' This approach encourages individuals to articulate specific beliefs they think differ from yours, helping to clarify misunderstandings and mischaracterizations in discussions, particularly on social media.
"somebody might police something you did taking it out of context and then putting it at the 20 years from now context right is pretty bad I mean there were things that I did 10 years ago and even five..."
Navigating Mischaracterizations in Debate
Adams elaborates on the common issue of mischaracterization in debates, especially online. He shares strategies for addressing these misinterpretations and emphasizes the importance of understanding the underlying assumptions in disagreements. This segment provides valuable insights into effective communication and argumentation.
"you've got this concept called the magic question and this was great because I can see this solving a lot of arguments that probably never even needed to happen in the first place so the most common t..."
The Power of Belief in Success
Scott Adams discusses the importance of maintaining a positive mindset and believing in one's ability to succeed. He emphasizes that the mindset of resentment towards the wealthy can hinder personal progress. Instead, he advocates for hard work and the belief that anyone can achieve their goals, regardless of their starting point.
"say something like hey you know somebody wrote to me and says oh you have a nice car I can never get one of those you know screw these rich a-holes and I was like you know that mindsets really not gon..."
Spotting Mind-Reading in Arguments
In this segment, Scott Adams explains the concept of 'mind-reading' in arguments, where individuals assume they know what others are thinking. He provides techniques to identify and counteract this behavior, emphasizing the importance of clear communication and the need to challenge incorrect assumptions about one's thoughts.
"closing there's one thing that I really want to get before we go because there's so much useful are these rhetorical devices I guess I don't know what you even call these argument argumentation techni..."
Calling Out Mind-Reading
Adams elaborates on how to effectively call out mind-reading during discussions. He shares personal experiences where assumptions about his thoughts led to misunderstandings. By labeling such assumptions as 'mind-reading,' he suggests that individuals can regain control of the conversation and clarify their actual viewpoints.
"example of we're putting a label on something can consolidate a concept that people were being bothered by but until you have a word for it you don't have as much power to manipulate so by simply sayi..."
The Absurdity of Logical Leaps
Scott Adams reflects on a recent experience where his innocuous comment was misinterpreted as a racist dog whistle. He illustrates how extreme logical leaps can distort communication and emphasizes the need for critical thinking to avoid falling into such traps. This segment highlights the challenges of navigating discussions in a polarized environment.
"else to say if somebody has based an argument on an incorrect assumption of what you're thinking you're the only expert on that and once you've said it's an accurate bow well we see this a lot recentl..."
Understanding Dog Whistles in Language
In this segment, Adams discusses the concept of 'dog whistles' in political language, particularly how certain phrases can be interpreted as coded messages. He shares insights on the implications of using terms like 'articulate' and how they can be perceived differently across racial lines, prompting a discussion on unconscious bias in communication.
"usually really not secret at all like if you look at somebody like who is a David Duke or somebody who's like an avowed racist he's not going well you know sometimes ABCD if you catch my drift he's sa..."
Navigating Racial Bias in Commentary
Scott Adams and Jordan Harbinger explore the nuances of racial bias in sports commentary. They discuss how language can unintentionally reinforce stereotypes and the importance of being aware of these biases. This segment encourages listeners to critically evaluate the language used in everyday discussions and its potential implications.
"I've ever heard it so if you see somebody using that word you ask yourself why they're using it it's a good question you say are you one of those people who knows what that word means are you one of t..."