All Segments
Tyler Cowen - The Great Reset
55 segments available
Tyler Cowen is Holbert L. Harris Professor of Economics at George Mason University and also Director of the Mercatus Center. Episode Website: https://www.dwarkeshpatel.com/p/tyler-cowen Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/3AxN5wr Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3KuDICx Follow Tyler Cowen on Twitter: https://twitter.com/tylercowen Follow me on Twitter: https://twitter.com/dwarkesh_sp 0:00 The Great Reset 2:58 Growth and the cyclical view of history 4:00 Time horizons, growth, and sustainability 5:30 Space travel 8:11 WMDs and end of humanity 10:57 Common sense morality 12:20 China and authoritarianism 13:45 Are big businesses complacent? 17:15 Online education vs university 20:45 Aesthetic decline in West Virginia 23:20 Advice for young people 25:18 Mentors 27:15 Identifying talent 29:50 Can adults change? 31:45 Capacity to change men vs women 33:10 Are effeminate societies better? 35:15 Conservatives and progress 36:50 Biggest mistake in history 39:05 Nuke in my lifetime 40:35 Age and learning 42:45 Pessimistic future 43:50 Optimistic future 46:28 Closing
Segments Timeline
The Prophetic Great Reset
Tyler Cowen discusses his 2017 book 'Complacent Class' and how he predicted a 'Great Reset' for the U.S. He reflects on the current crisis, the lack of flexibility in American institutions, and the potential for a resurgence of dynamism in the biomedical field post-crisis. Cowen emphasizes the importance of adaptability and innovation in response to challenges.
"i want to ask you about the great reset so you wrote a book in 2017 called complacent class and in it you predicted a great reset you wrote quote at some point our country will face an immediate crisi..."
The Prophetic Great Reset
Tyler Cowen discusses his 2017 book 'Complacent Class' and how he predicted a 'Great Reset' that would challenge America's flexibility in crisis management. He reflects on the current state of American institutions, noting the failure of the regulatory state while highlighting the resilience of the Fed and Supreme Court. Cowen emphasizes the urgency of adapting to crises and the potential for renewed dynamism in the biomedical field post-reset.
"i want to ask you about the great reset so you wrote a book in 2017 called complacent class and in it you predicted a great reset you wrote quote at some point our country will face an immediate crisi..."
Cyclical Views on Economic Growth
In this segment, Cowen contrasts the arguments of his two books, 'Complacent Class' and 'Stubborn Attachments.' He explains how a cyclical view of history can coexist with the belief in long-term economic growth, emphasizing the importance of maintaining liberal institutions for sustained progress. Cowen argues that while short-term cycles may slow growth, a long-term perspective can still yield positive outcomes.
"what surprised you the most about how the great reset has occurred well you may recall also in the complacent class i predict that racial issues and segregated segregation will be a central part of it..."
Cyclical Views vs. Economic Growth
Cowen explores the tension between his two books, 'Complacent Class' and 'Stubborn Attachments.' He argues that while economic growth may be cyclical in the short term, liberal institutions can foster long-term growth. He discusses the importance of time horizons in evaluating sustainability and economic progress.
"what surprised you the most about how the great reset has occurred well you may recall also in the complacent class i predict that racial issues and segregated segregation will be a central part of it..."
Sustainability and Economic Growth
In this segment, Cowen elaborates on how time horizons influence our approach to sustainability and economic growth. He critiques the notion of eternal economic growth and discusses the balance between risk aversion and the necessity for growth to address future challenges.
"and let's talk about the really long run so you give a really interesting lecture at uh stanford where you're talking about how time horizons influence how we should weigh um sustainability and econom..."
Time Horizons and Sustainability
Cowen elaborates on how time horizons influence our approach to sustainability and economic growth. He critiques the notion of eternal economic growth as a 'perverse fairy tale' and discusses the balance between risk aversion and the need for growth. He suggests that a moderate time horizon can foster innovation while avoiding excessive safety concerns.
"and let's talk about the really long run so you give a really interesting lecture at uh stanford where you're talking about how time horizons influence how we should weigh um sustainability and econom..."
The Limits of Earthly Growth
In this thought-provoking segment, Cowen addresses the finite nature of growth on Earth. He discusses the potential for human conflict and environmental challenges while asserting that living space and energy are not currently limiting factors. Cowen humorously suggests that we should focus on improving life on Earth before considering colonization of other planets.
"uh that's correct i probably said something like that in the talk and i think there's a big qualifier here if you're what i would call a space optimist you can believe in a very long-term horizon with..."
The Limits of Earthly Growth
Cowen addresses the finite nature of growth on Earth and the potential for human innovation to overcome constraints. He discusses the importance of addressing human conflict and environmental issues while emphasizing that living space and energy are not the primary limitations to growth.
"and i think i kind of estimated off the top of my head in semi-joking but also semi-serious fashion i thought we had another good seven or eight hundred years left in us and i remember that because i ..."
Weapons of Mass Destruction and Civilization
Cowen warns about the risks posed by weapons of mass destruction and the potential for major wars to disrupt civilization. He critiques the optimism surrounding declining violence and discusses the unpredictable nature of future conflicts, emphasizing the need for vigilance.
"galaxies but that to me also is is a weirdness i want to avoid because it also means something about the world we live in no longer matter no longer matters very much you get trapped in this other fun..."
The Threat of Weapons of Mass Destruction
Cowen warns about the long-term risks posed by weapons of mass destruction and the potential for major wars. He reflects on the historical patterns of conflict and the dangers of complacency regarding future wars. Cowen critiques the optimism surrounding declining violence, arguing that the possibility of catastrophic wars remains a significant concern.
"years uh weapons of mass destruction i think in any year the chance of a war is quite small but if you just let the clock tick for long enough a major war will happen and i don't think you have to bel..."
Common Sense Morality and Its Evolution
In this segment, Cowen reflects on the alignment of his views with common sense morality. He discusses how common sense morality evolves and its implications for societal decision-making, suggesting that it often leads to sound judgments on complex issues.
"years uh weapons of mass destruction i think in any year the chance of a war is quite small but if you just let the clock tick for long enough a major war will happen and i don't think you have to bel..."
Common Sense Morality and Its Relevance
In this concluding segment, Cowen discusses the alignment of his views with common sense morality. He explores the evolution of moral standards and their implications for societal progress. Cowen suggests that while common sense morality may not always lead to optimal outcomes, it often reflects a deeper understanding of human behavior and societal needs.
"this crisis i don't see any evidence of a major war in this crisis or indeed at all in 2020 uh maybe the single biggest problem would be china taiwan south china sea possibly north korea uh those are ..."
The Future of Free Societies
Cowen contemplates the future of free and prosperous societies, acknowledging the complexities of defining 'freedom' in an era of advanced surveillance. He expresses a qualified optimism about the long-term viability of free societies, while also recognizing the competitive nature of autocracies, particularly in the context of China's political landscape.
"common sense morality a lot now is there a re deeper reason why common sense morality is so often right about these issues or is it just a coincidence well common sense morality evolves and i really w..."
The Future of Freedom and Prosperity
In this segment, Cowen reflects on the inevitability of free and prosperous societies in the future. He acknowledges the complexities of defining 'freedom' in an era of advanced surveillance and discusses the competitive nature of autocracies, particularly in the context of China.
"again in the book that um your views uh end up aligning with common sense morality a lot now is there a re deeper reason why common sense morality is so often right about these issues or is it just a ..."
China's Autocratic Future
Tyler Cowen discusses the likelihood of China remaining an autocratic state in the future. He challenges the naive belief that increased wealth will lead to democracy, citing evidence that China has become less democratic despite its economic growth. Cowen emphasizes the current political realities and the potential for change over time.
"fare that well if you try it so that argument points to uh the equilibrium being with free and uh prosperous societies do you think that then there's almost something inevitable about you know the suc..."
China's Autocratic Stability
Cowen shares his views on China's political landscape, suggesting that there is no clear evidence that increased wealth will lead to greater democracy. He highlights the current state of Chinese governance and the potential for long-term autocratic stability.
"fare that well if you try it so that argument points to uh the equilibrium being with free and uh prosperous societies do you think that then there's almost something inevitable about you know the suc..."
Big Business and Complacency
Cowen discusses the relationship between big business and the complacent class, questioning the implications of declining startup formation. He argues that while big businesses are efficient, their dominance may stifle innovation in certain sectors.
"those are the facts on the ground and um let's talk about your most recent book big business now i think i um also see a contradiction between the complacent class and big business a big business almo..."
Big Business and Innovation
In this segment, Cowen addresses the relationship between big business and innovation, arguing that large companies can be significant drivers of dynamism. He acknowledges the decline in startup formation but suggests that big businesses are innovating effectively. Cowen highlights the productivity of big firms and their role in the economy.
"those are the facts on the ground and um let's talk about your most recent book big business now i think i um also see a contradiction between the complacent class and big business a big business almo..."
The Great Stagnation Thesis
Cowen reflects on the Great Stagnation thesis, asserting that while big businesses are innovative, stagnation persists in sectors like education and healthcare. He expresses optimism about potential breakthroughs in biomedical research but remains critical of the overall productivity in these key areas.
"business so i'll still write them a love letter but about the bigger picture ah interesting um but it is there then something complacent about the fact that big business is especially efficient and pr..."
Innovation in Big Business
In this segment, Cowen highlights the innovative capabilities of big businesses, using examples like Amazon and Google. He argues that despite concerns about complacency, large corporations are driving significant productivity and innovation.
"so i think the startups that will carry dynamism uh again covetous side that's obviously damaging startups uh it's not clear to me they're doing worse than they were doing 10 years ago and i would jus..."
Marginal Revolution University
Tyler Cowen discusses his initiative, Marginal Revolution University, which offers online economics courses. He clarifies that the platform is intended to supplement traditional education rather than replace it. Cowen emphasizes the value of face-to-face interactions and mentorship in the educational experience.
"so you know healthcare is one area where we might make major breakthroughs through biomedical research and on that i'm much more optimistic on education it seems to me the sector is getting hammered a..."
The Great Stagnation Thesis
Cowen addresses the Great Stagnation thesis, asserting that stagnation primarily affects sectors like education and healthcare rather than technology and big business. He expresses optimism about potential breakthroughs in biomedical research.
"business look at amazon they were this weird crummy website selling books now they help keep us alive they send me rainier cherries like whenever i click on the thing and they're on my front doorstep ..."
Marginal Revolution University
Cowen discusses his initiative, Marginal Revolution University, which offers online economics courses. He emphasizes that it serves as a supplement to traditional education rather than a replacement, highlighting the value of face-to-face interactions in learning.
"it's the other stuff and speaking of the education sector you created a marginal revolution university which is like an online college for economics courses how did that turn out and i mean in terms o..."
The Value of Traditional Education
In this segment, Cowen elaborates on the irreplaceable aspects of traditional education, such as networking, mentorship, and socialization. He argues that while online resources are valuable, the unique experiences and relationships formed in a university setting are crucial for personal and professional development.
"educational experience so tell me what we can't replace because uh marginal unit revolution university is great and if i was a young person interested in economics what am i getting from going to coll..."
The Value of Traditional Education
In this segment, Cowen reflects on the irreplaceable aspects of traditional college education, such as mentorship and social interactions. He argues that while online resources are valuable, they cannot fully replicate the benefits of in-person learning experiences.
"educational experience so tell me what we can't replace because uh marginal unit revolution university is great and if i was a young person interested in economics what am i getting from going to coll..."
Reflections on West Virginia
Cowen shares personal reflections on his time in Parkersburg, West Virginia, where he lived during his youth. He connects his experiences to broader themes of community and place, hinting at the significance of local environments in shaping individual perspectives.
"okay so on a lighter note you visited parkersburg this summer west virginia absolutely i was so excited yeah i i lived there for three years um between i think the age of 12 to 15. and my my dad worke..."
Nostalgia for West Virginia
Cowen shares his personal connection to Parkersburg, West Virginia, reminiscing about his childhood experiences there. He discusses the significance of place and memory in shaping one's perspective and identity.
"it and that's my vision and again we can have competition and figure out if 20 is the right number 15 30 whatever but the people who think it's somehow all khan academy or i don't know i've never seen..."
Advice for Young People
In this segment, Cowen shares personal anecdotes from his youth and offers advice to young individuals. He emphasizes the importance of finding good mentors and building a supportive network of friends, highlighting how these relationships can significantly impact one's personal and professional development.
"it's not that far from from where i live so i thought my daughter and i we drove there hmm what happened why did the aesthetics get so much worse because i i mean i didn't even think about this before..."
Advice for Young People
In this segment, Cowen shares personal anecdotes from his youth and offers advice to young individuals. He emphasizes the importance of finding good mentors and building a supportive network of friends, highlighting how these relationships can significantly influence one's personal and professional development.
"it's not that far from from where i live so i thought my daughter and i we drove there hmm what happened why did the aesthetics get so much worse because i i mean i didn't even think about this before..."
The Role of Mentors
Cowen elaborates on the critical role mentors play in shaping one's potential. He explains that mentors provide invaluable insights and inspiration, often revealing possibilities that individuals may not recognize on their own. The discussion underscores the importance of choosing mentors wisely.
"barnstormed around the u.s very early got this love for travel it's from many parts of the nation i never would have gotten to just like grand rapids or like eastern kansas all sorts of places like i'..."
The Impact of Mentorship
Cowen elaborates on the critical role of mentors in shaping one's potential. He explains how mentors provide insights and inspiration that can illuminate paths for personal growth, even if their advice isn't always directly applicable. The segment underscores the profound influence mentors can have on an individual's journey.
"people or even older people the first is get at least one really good mentor preferably two or three and second get like a small group of good friends that you love talking to hanging out with maybe w..."
Spotting and Signaling Talent
Cowen introduces the concept of his upcoming book on identifying talent, discussing the importance of spotting and signaling abilities rather than merely developing them. He emphasizes that understanding these aspects can lead to better personal and professional growth.
"i think usually it has nothing to do with them telling you they might tell you whatever bs who knows right but it's what you see i don't know that you listen to them that much or even ought to uh like..."
Optimism in Talent Development
In this segment, Cowen expresses his optimism regarding individuals' capacity to develop talents after the age of 18. He discusses the nuances of talent development, suggesting that while early training is beneficial in some fields, significant growth can still occur later in life.
"well i write a lot i've blogged every day for 17 years i write for bloomberg uh i try not to have overlap so if people are buying my book i don't want them to think oh i've read this guy's blog whatev..."
Spotting and Signaling Talent
Cowen introduces themes from his upcoming book on identifying talent, discussing the importance of recognizing and signaling one's abilities. He emphasizes that understanding how to showcase talent is crucial for both talent seekers and those aspiring to be recognized, hinting at practical insights from his research.
"been on that path for a while yeah and i think i was 14 when i met him that was just amazing now did he once tell me read as many books as possible like who knows but i i got that lesson you know in a..."
The Age of Talent Development
Cowen shares his views on the optimal age for talent development, suggesting that after 18 is the best time for most individuals to cultivate their skills. He acknowledges the importance of early experiences but encourages those without a head start not to lose hope.
"huh because before 18 you're much less able i mean clearly there's some areas where that's not true so like some areas in sports if you start tennis at 19 these days you're just not going to be that g..."
Optimism in Talent Development
In this segment, Cowen expresses his views on the capacity for individuals to develop their talents after the age of 18. He discusses the nuances of talent development, suggesting that while early training is beneficial, significant growth can still occur later in life, particularly in various fields.
"well i write a lot i've blogged every day for 17 years i write for bloomberg uh i try not to have overlap so if people are buying my book i don't want them to think oh i've read this guy's blog whatev..."
Temperament and Change: A Gender Perspective
This segment explores Cowen's thoughts on temperament stability and the differences in change between genders. He suggests that while temperament is generally stable from 18 to 70, women may experience more significant changes due to societal factors and life experiences.
"significantly after 18 or just interests and skills i guess i tend to think temperament is relatively stable i mean when you're very very old it's different and when you're very very young it's differ..."
The Age of Talent Development
Cowen shares his views on the optimal age for talent development, suggesting that after 18 is the best time for most individuals to cultivate their skills. He acknowledges that while early exposure can provide advantages, those without such opportunities should not feel discouraged, as diverse experiences can lead to unique perspectives.
"huh because before 18 you're much less able i mean clearly there's some areas where that's not true so like some areas in sports if you start tennis at 19 these days you're just not going to be that g..."
Stability of Temperament
In this thought-provoking discussion, Cowen reflects on the stability of temperament from ages 18 to 70. He suggests that while some individuals may experience changes due to life events, the general temperament remains relatively constant during adulthood, with notable exceptions.
"significantly after 18 or just interests and skills i guess i tend to think temperament is relatively stable i mean when you're very very old it's different and when you're very very young it's differ..."
The Impact of Feminization on Society
Cowen discusses the concept of feminization in society, arguing that it leads to increased safety and stability. He reflects on the trade-offs between safety and economic growth, suggesting that while feminization is inevitable, it can also foster a more dynamic society.
"radical hmm you're just like a smart nerdy white guy at 18. like if there's something you can be really good at like you're going to get your chance i'm not saying you might not hit some bad luck but ..."
Economic Growth vs. Safety: A Delicate Balance
In this segment, Cowen addresses the tension between prioritizing economic growth and ensuring safety in society. He argues that while feminization may lead to lower growth, the long-term benefits of safety and stability should not be overlooked.
"and uh speaking of the gender distinctions here you've mentioned um when you're talking about the great stagnation thesis that uh society has turned more effeminate and that that is on balance a good ..."
Gender Differences in Change
Cowen examines the differences in how men and women may change over time, attributing women's potential for greater change to societal disadvantages and formative experiences like childbearing. He contrasts this with men's more stable development trajectory, particularly in terms of risk-taking behaviors.
"radical hmm you're just like a smart nerdy white guy at 18. like if there's something you can be really good at like you're going to get your chance i'm not saying you might not hit some bad luck but ..."
The Biggest Mistake in Human History
Cowen reflects on the complexities of historical events and the difficulty in pinpointing a single mistake that had the most significant negative impact. He discusses the outcomes of major conflicts like World War II and the implications of historical contingencies.
"the best of it and let's build a more dynamic highly feminized society and i think we can do that i mean i i view myself as a part of trying to do that somehow thinking reversing feminism feminization..."
Feminization and Societal Safety
In this segment, Cowen discusses the implications of a more feminized society, arguing that increased safety is a positive outcome. He acknowledges the trade-offs between safety and economic growth, suggesting that while feminization may lead to lower growth, it is an inevitable and beneficial societal evolution.
"and uh speaking of the gender distinctions here you've mentioned um when you're talking about the great stagnation thesis that uh society has turned more effeminate and that that is on balance a good ..."
Nuclear Threats: A Grim Reality
In this sobering segment, Cowen predicts the likelihood of a nuclear event occurring in the near future, emphasizing the risks associated with terrorism and accidents. He contrasts this with the lower probability of a large-scale nuclear war, providing a nuanced view of current global threats.
"because of our own impatience and i get you can go quite a while and not see that happening but it's nonetheless true um okay so this is a question i asked brian kaplan uh when he was on what's the bi..."
Economic Growth vs. Redistribution
Cowen addresses the debate between economic growth and redistribution, asserting that growth, even when unevenly distributed, ultimately benefits society as a whole. He emphasizes the importance of patience in recognizing the long-term benefits of economic progress.
"highly feminized society and i think we can do that i mean i i view myself as a part of trying to do that somehow thinking reversing feminism feminization will get the rate of growth high again uh it'..."
Nuclear Threats in Our Lifetime
Cowen addresses the likelihood of nuclear weapons being used in the future, suggesting a high probability of a nuclear event occurring during our lifetime. He contrasts this with the lower likelihood of a full-scale nuclear war, exploring the psychological and strategic implications of such scenarios.
"and that was hardly to have been expected and do you think a nuke's going to go off in my lifetime uh a non-tested nuke yes absolutely a nuke used to kill people yes um enough to like significantly po..."
The Biggest Mistake in History
In a reflective moment, Cowen contemplates the biggest mistake in human history, suggesting that it is difficult to pinpoint a single decision with the most significant negative impact. He discusses the complexities of historical events, such as World War II, and the potential consequences of alternate outcomes.
"because of our own impatience and i get you can go quite a while and not see that happening but it's nonetheless true um okay so this is a question i asked brian kaplan uh when he was on what's the bi..."
Nuclear Threats in Our Lifetime
Cowen expresses a sobering prediction about the likelihood of a nuclear event occurring within our lifetime. He discusses the potential scenarios, including accidents and terror attacks, while contrasting this with the lower probability of a full-scale nuclear war.
"in many many parts of the world and that was hardly to have been expected and do you think a nuke's going to go off in my lifetime uh a non-tested nuke yes absolutely a nuke used to kill people yes um..."
Learning and Knowledge Accumulation
In this segment, Cowen reflects on his learning journey from ages 15 to 25, discussing the diminishing returns of knowledge acquisition as one ages. He shares insights on how early exposure to different economic theories shaped his views and the importance of continuous learning.
"you know thomas shelling was my doctoral advisor and he was the person who first in a serious way pondered these possibilities in print in an academic manner i think we don't know what any of these le..."
Concerns for the Future Post-Crisis
Cowen expresses his worries about the long-term effects of the current crisis, including psychological scarring and the collapse of international cooperation. He emphasizes the potential for ongoing challenges and the misconception that political changes alone will resolve these issues.
"but not as high as they had been and if you were exposed to like left-wing economics when uh when you were a teenager instead of austrian stuff would you today is there a high likelihood you would be ..."
Learning and Knowledge Accumulation
Cowen shares insights on his learning journey from ages 15 to 25, highlighting the diminishing returns of knowledge acquisition as one ages. He discusses the importance of early exposure to different economic theories and reflects on the fields he wishes he had explored more deeply during his formative years.
"you know thomas shelling was my doctoral advisor and he was the person who first in a serious way pondered these possibilities in print in an academic manner i think we don't know what any of these le..."
Optimism Amidst Uncertainty
Cowen concludes with a discussion on the optimistic scenarios that could emerge from the current crisis, including advancements in biomedicine and preparedness for future pandemics. He highlights the unexpected improvements in death rates and the potential for economic recovery, framing it as a silver lining in a challenging situation.
"immigration uh i worry about all those things and i think those quite possibly are plausible outcomes they're not like you know tail scenarios they're happening right now okay i think people think som..."
Pessimistic and Optimistic Futures
Cowen outlines his concerns about the long-term effects of crises, including psychological scarring and the collapse of international cooperation. He contrasts this with a more optimistic view of potential recovery, discussing the improvements in death rates and the possibility of a V-shaped economic recovery post-pandemic.
"but not as high as they had been and if you were exposed to like left-wing economics when uh when you were a teenager instead of austrian stuff would you today is there a high likelihood you would be ..."
Silver Linings in Crisis
In this concluding segment, Cowen reflects on the potential positive outcomes of the pandemic, such as advancements in biomedicine and preparedness for future crises. He emphasizes that while the current situation is dire, it could have been much worse, and there are reasons to remain hopeful about the future.
"immigration uh i worry about all those things and i think those quite possibly are plausible outcomes they're not like you know tail scenarios they're happening right now okay i think people think som..."