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a16z Podcast | When Software Eats Cars
21 segments available
After the smartphone, what business has the global scale (in terms of people and profits) that make it attractive for tech companies to turn their attention and capital towards? The answer, argues a16z’s Benedict Evans, is the automotive industry. Sure, cars are mobile -- but what do our smartphones have to do with our rides? More than we might expect. Evans offers his vision of the future of cars, and perhaps the future of today’s biggest technology companies. Who will build these cars, who will own them, and who (or what) will drive them? We discuss this and more in this segment of the a16z Podcast.
Segments Timeline
The Collision of Cars and Technology
Benedict Evans discusses the intersection of the automotive industry and technology, highlighting how companies like Apple and Google are venturing into the car business. He emphasizes that the future of cars is closely tied to mobile technology, and explores the implications of this convergence for both industries.
"welcome to the a 16z podcast I'm Michael Copeland after the smart phone what business has the global scale in terms of people and profits that make it attractive for tech companies to turn their atten..."
Four Building Blocks of Automotive Innovation
Evans outlines four key trends shaping the future of cars: electric vehicles, on-demand services, autonomous driving, and the integration of software into vehicles. He explains how these elements interact and support each other, transforming the automotive landscape and making it more accessible for tech companies.
"welcome hello let's talk about what cars and mobile have to do with each other what cars in the smartphone industry have to do with each other and what even brought this subject to mind for you well w..."
The Shift to Electric Vehicles
In this segment, Evans delves into the advantages of electric cars, particularly how they simplify vehicle mechanics compared to traditional combustion engines. He discusses the implications for maintenance, supply chains, and the overall capital structure of car manufacturing, suggesting that this shift could open the market to non-traditional car manufacturers.
"then and start with the electric car and how that's a sort of lends itself to technology and technology play a la Tesla and others well the thing that the sort of most obvious and visible if people th..."
On-Demand Services and Changing Ownership Models
Evans explores how on-demand services are reshaping car ownership dynamics. He discusses the balance between owning a car and using ride-hailing services, and how this equilibrium will vary by city. The segment highlights the potential for reduced car ownership as on-demand services become more prevalent.
"example of this but the the question then becomes where does the value in a electric car lie and and for Tesla it's clearly in the battery for example yeah it's the battery and instead of the engine c..."
The Impact of Self-Driving Cars
This segment focuses on the transformative potential of self-driving cars. Evans illustrates how autonomous vehicles could change urban layouts by eliminating the need for parking spaces and altering the dynamics of commercial real estate. He discusses the implications for car ownership and the availability of on-demand services.
"it kind of different degrees in different places now the the what's interesting about self-driving cars is how much they change that and so just as tests as electric cars and not just about pollution ..."
Who Will Own Self-Driving Cars?
Evans raises questions about the ownership models for self-driving cars, debating whether individuals will own them or if fleets will dominate the market. He discusses the financial implications of these models and how they could affect the purchasing decisions for autonomous vehicles.
"equilibrium point changes again and then you have all sorts of and so you know that as the point is that self-driving cars set for make on-demand service is much much much bigger and they tend to resu..."
Redesigning Cars for the Future
In this concluding segment, Evans touches on the redesign of cars in light of electric and self-driving technologies. He emphasizes the need for innovation in vehicle design to accommodate new functionalities and consumer expectations, setting the stage for the future of automotive engineering.
"it's it's busy and boring yeah but you know how easy it is an idiot open the case and change the network card or whatever it is that you need to do these days so and so that becomes interesting for Ap..."
Impact on Urban Infrastructure
This segment examines the broader implications of self-driving cars on urban infrastructure and public transport. Evans discusses how the absence of manually driven cars could lead to changes in road layouts, traffic management, and even public transport efficiency. He raises questions about how these shifts might affect cycling, pedestrian safety, and the overall design of cities.
"inside of a car might look like and how it might be structured I mean right now when you look at a Tesla you wouldn't how you and be able to tell that it doesn't got a petrol engine inside it if you d..."
The Transformation of Public Transport
Benedict Evans discusses the potential transformation of public transport systems in a world dominated by self-driving vehicles. He considers how self-driving cars could impact the viability of buses and public transport routes, particularly for low-income individuals. This segment explores the balance between convenience and accessibility in future transportation models.
"need to the point again you get all kinds of sort of second-order effects so you know I think Carl Sagan said that it was easy to protect mass ownership of cars but hard to pollute Walmart right so wh..."
Changing Media Consumption Habits
In this segment, Evans speculates on how self-driving technology could alter media consumption habits. He discusses the potential for increased smartphone usage during commutes and the implications for radio and other media formats. This exploration highlights the unpredictable effects of autonomous vehicles on daily life and entertainment.
"which everyone should watch but it's a frightening game of Frogger where nothing gets killed yeah exactly it's it's like watching a circus act or something it's like you know people whizzing past each..."
The Future of Transportation Economics
Evans addresses the economic implications of self-driving cars on public transport and low-income commuters. He raises questions about the affordability of self-driving options compared to traditional public transport, and how this could reshape transportation economics. This segment emphasizes the need for a thoughtful approach to integrating new technologies into existing systems.
"each other then you also of course as a sort of the big question is what happens to public transport and where does that leave people on low incomes because you're kind of if you're kind of cherry pic..."
From Circuit-Switched to Packet-Switched Transport
This segment introduces the concept of transitioning from circuit-switched to packet-switched models in transportation. Evans draws parallels between traditional driving and modern traffic management, suggesting that self-driving technology could enable more efficient and flexible road usage. The discussion highlights the potential for swarms of cars to navigate without fixed lanes, transforming how we think about road systems.
"kind of transformative in the way to self-driving cars because it's always good right you know that's the space taken up by the driver isn't really the point but no what I was more thinking is you kno..."
Challenges for Tech Giants in Automotive
Evans concludes with a discussion on the challenges tech companies like Apple may face in the automotive space. He emphasizes the complexities of software development for self-driving cars, including routing and optimization. This segment underscores the competitive landscape of the automotive industry as it intersects with technology, highlighting the need for innovative solutions.
"example and because that then gets to who's best suited to be doing this and so when you say circuits is sort of this manual I'm driving I'm you know yeah I mean it's all perfect analogy maybe you cou..."
Challenges of Self-Driving Technology
The conversation highlights the complexities involved in developing self-driving cars, particularly focusing on the software challenges of routing and load balancing. The segment emphasizes the importance of optimizing vehicle positioning in urban settings to ensure efficient transportation services.
"Apple in that it's some you know who is it that's buying these things but there's another point which is it is which is what's the hard part of the software here there's at the heart there is a hard p..."
The Strategic Importance of Mapping
This segment discusses the growing significance of mapping technology in the automotive industry. As cars become more reliant on software for navigation, the strategic value of accurate maps is emphasized, paralleling the evolution of car technology with historical advancements in transportation.
"the hard part over time but it's just kind of worse sort of thinking you know yes they're not hitting things is hard but what is it that's going to fundamentally shape what's going on in a city it's p..."
The Evolution of Car Ownership
In this segment, the discussion shifts to the future of car ownership and the potential for software-driven upgrades. The analogy of cars becoming more like smartphones is explored, raising questions about how consumers will interact with and upgrade their vehicles in the future.
"important because gleave there's kind of ears all kinds of interim steps here it's a bit like you know steamships that have Marcin sales for the first 20 years just in case and so you know the first s..."
The Love for Driving vs. Automation
This segment contrasts the emotional attachment people have to driving with the rise of self-driving technology. The conversation reflects on how preferences for traditional driving experiences may persist even as automation becomes more prevalent in the automotive landscape.
"mate now it's like that app that there was an app in the early days of the App Store it would cost five thousand dollars and it just said I'm rich that's what people do with their cars but it's almost..."
Barriers to Self-Driving Cars
The discussion addresses the current technological barriers to achieving fully autonomous vehicles. It highlights the efforts of major tech companies like Apple and Google in developing self-driving technology, while also considering the timeline and feasibility of these advancements.
"horses are easy to love that's true and yet this interesting analogy here because of course the you know the one of the fundamental advantages of cork of cars over horses essentially again was you hav..."
The Business Case for Automotive Tech
This segment explores the business potential of the automotive industry for tech companies. It draws parallels between the smartphone market and the automotive sector, discussing the opportunities for innovation and growth as technology continues to reshape transportation.
"matter although probably not very much but when you have all of that in place at the same time you know your self-driving now we go back to electric it's a lot easier if yourself to having car to char..."
Tech Giants Eyeing the Car Market
In this segment, Evans reflects on why tech companies are interested in the automotive sector, likening the smartphone to a 'new sun' in the tech industry. He discusses the potential for cars to become technology products, driven by advancements in electric and self-driving technologies, and the implications for future vehicle ownership and market dynamics.
"tech coincidentally mobile network operators the revenue is about 1.2 trillion dollars as well so cars and mobile networks are about the same size but much bigger than anything in tech but on the othe..."
The Future of Car Ownership
Evans speculates on the future of car ownership and the types of vehicles that may emerge as technology evolves. He raises questions about the pricing of high-end cars in a world where self-driving and electric vehicles become the norm, and how this shift could redefine what constitutes a luxury vehicle. The discussion touches on the potential for new vehicle categories and the impact of technology on car prices and insurance.
"of why it becomes interesting does it break down along similar lines I know you know you've made arguments for why maybe Apple and it's kind of rarified product lineup isn't well suited to an on-deman..."