"if we don't ask how long do they last but instead ask what's the probability that there have been any civilizations at all no matter how long they lasted I'm not asking whether they exist now or not I..."

"elsewhere over the course of cosmic history the following is a conversation with Adam Frank an astrophysicist interested in the evolution of star systems and the search for alien civilizations in our ..."

"the big question how many alien civilizations are out there yeah that's the question right the amazing thing is that after two and a half Millennia of you know people yelling at each other or setting ..."

"that uh planets were really rare we didn't really understand how planets formed and so if you go back to say the turn of the 20th century uh there was a theory that said planets formed when two stars ..."

"itself and you want to do planets things get a little bit more complicated because the physics gets more complicated now you got to start worrying about dust because actually dust which is just dust i..."

"Jupiter and Saturn don't have so much but the moons do the moons have so much water in them that there's there's oceans right that we've got a number of those moons have got more water on them than th..."

"crust and the atmosphere do you think hugely important so I'm part of a collaboration at the University of Rochester where we're using uh the giant laser it's literally this is called the laboratory f..."

"why do you think PL tectonics might be uh useful for the formation of complex life there's a bunch of different things one is that you know the Earth went through a couple of phases of being a snowbal..."

"there can get excited for one second clip it but at what I mean by that is that there really weren't many mountain ranges right the beginning of I think the term is orogenesis mountain building the tr..."

"is some uh extremely elevated levels of chaos almost like catastrophes behind every Leap of evolution like you're not going to have Leaps um like in in in human societies we have like an Einstein that..."

"grinspoon and Sarah Walker both say and you know uh I agree with this it's a really nice way of putting it um so uh you know PL tectonics um the evolution of oxygen of an oxygen atmosphere which only ..."

"on a scale of a planet when there's a billions trillions of organisms on a planet they can actually have planetary scale impact yeah so the chemical Shenanigans of an individual organism once scaled o..."

"and like there were all these guyan festivals with guyan uh dances and so you know became very popular in the New Age Community but love loock actually they were able to show that no this has nothing ..."

"the technosphere also has a guyan feedback or elements of a guyan feedback such that the technosphere will also fight to some degree for homeostasis open question I guess well that's I'm glad you aske..."

"alive so as of right now I'd say we're not autopoetic well I wonder if we look across thousands tens of thousands hundreds of thousands of years that perturbations the technosphere should create pertu..."

"you can think of right now with what's happening with the anthropos scine the great acceleration that that uh the is the technosphere you know is the creation of that is a giant pertubation on the bio..."

"reasoning he said there must be a few very hard steps for evolution to get through to make it to intelligence right so there's some steps are going to be easy so every generation you know you roll the..."

"uh details or none of the conceptual structure of this matches with what the people actually study the planet and its evolution is it mostly about the the fact that there's not really discret big step..."

"those details as we were talking about like with do you have to know about the planet do you have to know about PL tectonics yeah you're going to have to I mean to be fair to Carter on the first point..."

"standing we're staring at the you know multiple guns pointing out you know nuclear war climate change AI um so you know how long on in general does civilizations last now each one of these terms was b..."

"far-reaching effect on astrobiology because it did break the problem up in a way that gave useful uh uh you know sort of marching orders for all these different groups like for example it's because of..."

"papers some of those papers are good I've written some of those and some of those papers are bad um you know I'm not sure where my paper fits in on those I'm saying you know one should be careful abou..."

"you can all you need is one like right now it's an any you know our understanding of life we have one example we have n equals one example of life so that means we could be an accident right it could ..."

"subp the fraction of stars that have planets it's one every freaking star that you see in the sky hosts a family of Worlds I mean it's mindboggling because every one of those those are all places righ..."

"habitable zone is an idea um that was developed in the um uh 1958 by the Chinese American astronomer xuang and it was it was a brilliant idea it said look this is there you know I can do the simple ca..."

"so you know the habitable zone is a good place to start and it helps us and there's reason there's reasons why you do want to focus on the habitable zone because like Europa I couldn't I won't be able..."

"to me it seems like there should be alien civilizations everywhere why the fmy Paradox why haven't we seen them okay the fmy Paradox let's talk about the I love talking about the fmy Paradox because t..."

"got picked up as a formal thing in 1975 in a paper by Hart where he actually kind of went through this calculation and showed and said well there's nobody here now therefore there's nobody anywhere th..."

"there was no fish in it and so now are we going to say up well there's no fish in the ocean right so there is absolutely positively no indirect firmy pars we just haven't looked um but we're starting ..."

"too sparse the only way maybe you could tell is by looking at the isotopic uh uh Str uh to see if there was anything reminiscent of an industrial civilization but the idea that you know you'd be able ..."

"short amount of time yeah this is not to say that there was like so oh whenever I gave you know I like when I was on Joe Rogan for exactly this paper and I had to always emphasize we're not saying the..."

"certain way yeah it goes to war all this kind of stuff independently ores fascinating Santa Fe Institute the stuff the Santa Fe Institute does on this as complex systems you know the origin of hierarc..."

"basically uh that the there have been 10 billion trillion habitable zone planets in the universe and what that means is that are those are 10 billion trillion experiments that have been run um and the..."

"that you know the burden of proof is now on the pessimists right so that's why we called it the pessimism line there's been you know throughout history there's been uh uh you know alien pessimists and..."

"that's my that's my gut feeling you know yeah I mean day by day this changes for me but I I just see once you create bacteria it's it's it's Off to the Races you're going to get complex life yeah as l..."

"common so the to me then the the only explanation is the L our galaxy is a graveyard of civilizations yeah because you know you think about it we've only been around I mean as a techn lot truly you kn..."

"so you had David Kipping on not too long ago um and David and I did a paper uh and Caleb sharf David really drove this where we you know it was a basian calculation to sort of ask the question if you ..."

"agent based modeling you could do it with that so you know our group has used agent based modeling to do something like the firmy Paradox that was that was agent-based modeling but you can also do thi..."

"don't think it'll be necessarily all that different you know because really I think within a few hundred years we will have lots of people in the solar system and it doesn't even have to be on Mars we..."

"you know I think we'll settle every nook and cranny we possibly can and it's you know it's a beautiful what I love about what's hopeful about it is this idea you're going to have all of these pockets ..."

"of human civilization because you really have to think about these webs the the the complexity of these webs and recognize the biosphere has been doing this forever the biosphere knows how to do this ..."

"technosphere the whole the whole thing by yourself uh you know if you just hey the aforementioned cockroach with some bacteria place it in Europa uh I think you'd be surprised what happens yeah right ..."

"interesting idea I wonder if somebody has done those experiment yeah you think somebody would like let's take a bunch of microbes the harsh the take the harshest possible condition of all different ki..."

"to to just sort of be like oh just drop it over here and it all you know because the bacteria even though they're individual examples of life and I kind of believe this the true unit of life it's not ..."

"question I don't know if we uh have a rigorous way of investigating that because everybody everything on life is you know has the same lineage we all come from Luca you know the last Universal common ..."

"yeah yeah the potentially Dead part I think right it could be that like making civilizations is easy they just don't last long so we when we went out there we'd find a lot of extinct civilizations ext..."

"about its civilizing business you know without asking whether they want to be contacted or not so this is what we call a bio signature or a techno signature it is an imprint in the light from the plan..."

"chlorofluorocarbons so we've dumped you know we dumped a huge amount of chlorofluorocarbons into the atmosphere by mistake um it was affecting the ozone but we put so much in there that actually this ..."

"rock same thing for Tech we're that's what we're working on right now that for techno signatures as well so how do you detect techno signatures okay so with techno signatures I gave the example of chl..."

"now working with us what do you think is the most detectable thing about Earth uh wow we just this is fun we just have a Sophia sheif gu who's part of our collaboration just did a paper we did Earth f..."

"multigenerational project how long did it take to build the pyramids how long did it take to build the giant Cathedrals right those were multi-generational projects and I think we're on the cusp of th..."

"looking through uh different kinds of anouncements that have been detected there's been some direct Imaging yes like a single Pixel the kinds of exop plants were able to direct image I guess would hav..."

"see into the atmosphere we can see to the atmosphere so well that we can be like oh look methane methane was a five Sigma detection like you knew that the data were so good that it was like the the go..."

"sphere structure yeah he basically meant a swarm so yeah that like you said in the limit basically starts to look people started to say yeah it was like a sphere and we actually almost thought we migh..."

"uh signal uh Transit signal yeah one you wouldn't expect from a star that doesn't have anything exactly or just a planet right or a couple of planets there'd be so many of these that it would be like ..."

"Carter shf scale and where are humans on it right so the cter chef scale was the same time this is this golden age of seti like kind of like 6059 to 65 when it just starts like this is you know um Fra..."

"times more energy than that you're you're not going to do it on on world so how do we detect uh Alien type one two and three civilizations so we've been kind of talking about basically type one civili..."

"looking for that's one idea um of looking for uh you know large scale interplanetary which is kind of like when you're getting to a type type two um another possibility is looking for the tailings of ..."

"with um artificial intelligence we have you know the moon has been mapped down to like a couple of meters with various probes and all that data is sitting there so have why not use machine learning to..."

"possible we can detect anomalies in in space time well you could detect and there's there's been some work on this like with the acbra drive you know these proposals for warp drives and we can talk ab..."

"problem with all of those proposals is they all need something the thing you added the little fictional term you added on the into the equations is something called um exotic matter and it doesn't exi..."

"fundamental physics problem yeah I mean I agree with that in princible but I think there's been you know I mean there's a lot of ideas out there people you know String Theory people have been playing ..."

"about about we were talking about the space habitats but if you really had a space habit not some super cramped you know crappy the usual version of a century ship but if you had these like space habi..."

"great action sequences too as we get better and better advancements in large language models that are able to be fine-tuned on you it's it raises a question because I to me they've already passed the ..."

"which is you know life B anything that we're going to call life is probably going to work on darwinian Evolution that's the nice thing about darwinian Evolution just like we know the laws of physics a..."

"you can expect certain classes of solutions to the basic problems that life is going to is going to uh be presented with stay alive reproduce um but one of the weird things about like with the UFO thi..."

"the idea and this is important so yes you should expect legs or jointed sticks how many joints there going to be anybody's guess um you know do you expect humanoids you know things with a you know a s..."

"it's you know the hive mind idea or you know bacterial colonies that actually manag to you know come to their own version of high cognition well I wonder if there's if we stretch out time across 10 20..."

"integrated into a mature biosash technosphere and of course you know evolution is not working for anything well here's the actually interesting thing right so people are very much you know evolutionar..."

"was set and it was achieved if there's Advanced civilizations out there what do you think is the proper protocol for interacting with them do you think they would be peaceful do you think they would b..."

"as as cognizing beings one of my favorite movies is arrival I don't know if you ever seen that one I really love that one because you know they literally they have a different language they have a dif..."

"somehow we have to figure out how to think about it but be so careful of our biases or figure out like a systematic way to break through our biases and not just tell make science fiction movies you kn..."

"the idea that evolution is a natural process that's what I would go for first right there there's that just seems it's so much easier to do it that way than adding you know sort of because it's kind o..."

"to understand that that interaction will be extremely difficult to detect that will not be obvious right I understand the logic of what you're saying but the problem for me with that is that right the..."

"we're very much we have a very particular kind of cognitive structure or cogni you know and and we're very governed by you even if you went and talked to this is an interesting thing to think about yo..."

"I think in our engagement in our engagement yeah yeah probably so using that trivial bias logic I just it just feels like aliens would need to be engaged in in a very obvious way yeah yeah yeah which ..."

"could support that claim well I generally assign a lot of value to anecdotal evidence from Pilots not scientific value but just like it's always nice to get anecdotal evidence as a first step I was li..."

"and all these things we're used to doing in other scientific Enterprises and without that if we don't do that we're going to be having the same damn argument about these things for you know the next h..."

"look at do the telescopic stuff yeah I think the more likely explanation is is uh either the sensors are not working correctly or it's secret military technology being tested absolutely I mean if you ..."

"nefarious purposes okay let me ask the pad question another yet another podast another the whole conversation I'm sorry bongs before breakfast it's it's science and Pad questions back and forth okay u..."

"the verb to be appears so this is something that you uh write about in the blind spot why science cannot ignore Human Experience sort of trying to pull the fire into the the process of uh uh science u..."

"the way to say this that is the the precondition for the possibility of Science and the whole nature of science the way has evolved is that it it purposely pushed that out it pushed that out so it cou..."

"an epip phenomena Consciousness I I don't I tend not to use the word Consciousness because it's I think it get you know it leads us in the wrong direction we should focus on experience because it's a ..."

"it'll people can it it'll help them understand what we mean so think about uh degrees Celsius right we kind of have in the modern scientific culture we live in we think like oh yeah degrees Celsius th..."

"this crisis of meaning emerg so scientific triumphalism is the idea that only the only thing that's true for us are scientific truths right unless it can be codified in a formal system and represented..."

"is about politic itics right but about you know for the entire history of the species we've we've had this experience of For Better lack of a better word the sacredness I'm not connecting this God or ..."

"yourself from it so how do you do so so one of the the things that Whitehead said was you you know you we have to avoid the bifurcation of Nature and what he meant by that is the bifurcation into like..."

"turns out to be it's kind of the same language that we're using in a project that's about the physics of life where um we have a grant from the uh Templeton Foundation to look at semantic information ..."

"what you said is exactly it how do we bring this sort of recognition that there's always us the agent or life the agent interacting with the world uh and drawing in both giving information and passing..."

"laws are amazing but they need an account but not an account that strips you know that turns the experience turns the agent into just a you know an epip phenomena that it pushes the agent out and make..."

"post empirical uh and you know I want always wanted to write a paper or an article that was like physicists have been smoking their own stash right there's this way we've gotten used to like you know ..."

"ground to explore yeah like time is a really interesting one this time is really important to us humans what is time yeah that's a right what is time so the way we have tended to view it is we've take..."

"self membrane creates itself so there's this strange it's always with life there's always this strange Loop and so somehow figuring out how to jump into that strange Loop is you know the science that'..."

"or not but I'm saying I'm giving you examples of like you know when you when you see the blind spot when you acknowledge the blind spot it opens up a whole other class of kinds of scientific investiga..."

"well it is I mean I think there is a hunger to acknowledge that there's an elephant in the room like that we're just removing the agent like it's everyone is doing it and it's like yeah yeah we there'..."

"science view is want like Bulman brains you're just a brain floating in the space you know yeah there there's a fascinating degree to which uh agency is fluid like you are an individual but you and I ..."

"of science that would flow out of that so going back to content organism versus machine so I showed you uh a couple of uh legged robots very cool is it possible for machines to to have agency I would ..."

"kind of stuff yeah I think so I I you know it's possible right it's possible but I think probably the view I'm advocating would say that one of the most important parts of agency is there's something ..."

"cognition argues that cognition does not occur solely in the head but is also embodied embedded enacted and extended by way of extra cranial processes and structures they very much invogue 4E cognitio..."

"of looking at uh at at what we mean by Nature what do you make of the fact that this individual Observer you as an individual Observer only get a finite amount of time to exist in this world does it m..."

"world is just you know uh Buddhism has this idea of codependent arising nothing exists nothing has self nature nothing exists by itself it's an endless infinitely connected web but still there's a del..."