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a16z Podcast | So Where Are We on the 'S-curve' for PC Devices?

a16z Podcast | So Where Are We on the 'S-curve' for PC Devices?

30 segments available

There have been a number of new device announcements this past month -- from Google’s new Pixel phone (the first time they made their own phone on the hardware side as well) to more recently, Apple’s announcements around a new Macbook Pro and innovations in touch (including a Touchbar that replaces function keys and bringing TouchID to Macs); and then Microsoft, which among other things announced a new Surface Studio -- an all-in-one touchscreen desktop PC. How do these change the future of work? Turns out, even seemingly small interface improvements could have significant consequences for user behavior. Just look at touch. More broadly, though, what happens when a software maker becomes a hardware maker? Or when we're in the middle of an architecture shift, as we are right now with x86 to ARM processors in mobile (and beyond)? It's all about where you're at on the "S-curve" of innovation (a concept first coined by Gabriel Tarde and expanded on Everett Rogers in his theory of innovation diffusion). And sometimes, the best is the last... But how can we tell where something is on that curve? The right comparisons matter here, and a16z's Benedict Evans and board partner Steven Sinofsky try to make them in this episode of the podcast!

Segments Timeline

1
0:01 - 0:43
0:42 duration158 words

The Exciting Week for PCs

Benedict Evans and Steven Sinofsky discuss the recent surge in PC announcements, including Google's Pixel phone, Apple's new MacBook Pro, and Microsoft's Surface Studio. They explore the implications of these innovations on the future of work and the evolving landscape of device ecosystems.

"hi everyone welcome to the a6 and Z podcast today is another one of our hallway conversations and no seriously this actually started off as a conversation in the hallway between Benedict Evans and a 6..."

2
0:43 - 1:12
0:28 duration89 words

Changing of the Guard in PC Leadership

The conversation shifts to whether recent announcements signify a changing of the guard in PC leadership. Benedict and Steven compare the marketing strategies of Microsoft and Apple, questioning if Microsoft has outperformed Apple in advertising their new devices.

"of s-curves and innovation covering everything from the x86 to ARM processor shift to ecosystem fragmentation to the role of touch and interface and finally how it all changes work well we were talkin..."

3
1:12 - 2:02
0:50 duration170 words

Ecosystem Dynamics: Google and Microsoft

Benedict highlights the significance of Google and Microsoft entering the hardware space. He compares the Pixel phone to the iPhone and the Surface to the Mac, discussing how these moves affect their respective ecosystems and the broader implications for user experience.

"design even talking about did Microsoft do better ads for their devices than Apple did for their devices even though Apple sort of created the metaphor for doing the sleek ID walkthroughs what's on yo..."

4
2:02 - 3:01
0:58 duration214 words

Fragmentation in the Android Ecosystem

The discussion delves into the fragmentation issues within the Android ecosystem, where multiple manufacturers create a diverse range of devices. Benedict explains how this fragmentation complicates software development and performance, especially in emerging technologies like VR.

"you've got these ecosystems and you've got these operating system providers moving into a hardware ecosystem then you've also got the state of the PC ecosystem the state of the smartphone you can syst..."

5
3:01 - 4:10
1:09 duration265 words

Google's Push into Hardware

Benedict and Steven analyze Google's strategy in launching the Pixel phone, questioning whether it aims to address gaps in the Android ecosystem or simply to compete with high-end devices like the iPhone. They explore the potential motivations behind Google's hardware ambitions.

"huge and very vibrant ecosystem for making Android phones at the high end it struggles to compete with the iPhone there were some companies that do okay against the iPhone but Apple's got 650 million ..."

6
4:10 - 5:37
1:27 duration323 words

The Challenge of Ecosystem Relationships

The conversation highlights the complexities of ecosystem relationships as software companies venture into hardware. Steven discusses the challenges of maintaining healthy relationships between developers, platforms, and OEMs, emphasizing the precarious nature of these dynamics.

"actually competing with out there we are OMS who you could argue don't have anywhere else to go because Windows Phone is now kind of shrunk away but Google is kind of going out into the phone business..."

7
5:37 - 6:59
1:21 duration292 words

Revenue vs. Margins in Hardware

Benedict and Steven reflect on the financial challenges faced by software companies entering the hardware market. They discuss the difference between revenue generation and profit margins, questioning the sustainability of hardware ventures for companies accustomed to high-margin software.

"was a thing that I had to navigate and so the the problem is is that ecosystems are fundamentally about a relationship and it goes all the way up and down the chain because you start with developers a..."

8
6:59 - 8:11
1:11 duration254 words

The Role of Brand and Reach

The discussion shifts to the importance of brand reach for companies like Google and Microsoft. Steven shares insights on how having their own hardware can enhance their brand presence and influence in the market, particularly in relation to Android and Windows devices.

"is you can always drive the top-line revenue because the devices are expensive it's $900 and you multiply that by a few million and whoa it's a big number but the margins are very very difficult and w..."

9
8:11 - 9:18
1:07 duration263 words

Price Perception in the Tech Market

Benedict and Steven analyze the contrasting perceptions of pricing between Windows and Mac users. They explore how the pricing of new devices influences consumer sentiment and the competitive landscape, highlighting the ongoing debate over value in high-end technology.

"look at the surface studio which starts at $3,000 and for basically something with laptops it like with mobile chips in it and then it goes up to is it four or even five thousand dollars two hundred w..."

10
9:20 - 10:01
0:40 duration169 words

The Reach Problem in Tech

The speakers delve into the 'reach problem' faced by tech companies, particularly Google and Microsoft. They discuss how the inability to showcase their products effectively to influential users can hinder their market presence. The conversation touches on the internal challenges within Google, where employees often prefer iPhones, and how this affects their ability to promote Android effectively. This segment emphasizes the importance of user experience and brand loyalty in the tech industry.

"maybe it's the fragmentation and the fragmentation is a problem for VR and that's they're trying to get ahead of that but that's a bit more speculative yeah to me I think and like now I'm speaking per..."

11
10:01 - 10:49
0:48 duration190 words

Pricing Dynamics in the PC Market

This segment discusses the contrasting perceptions of pricing between Windows and Mac users regarding the new MacBook Pro. The speakers highlight the reality of PC pricing on the S-curve of innovation, suggesting that high prices are becoming the norm in the PC market. They explore the implications of this trend for consumers and manufacturers alike, emphasizing that the cost of PCs reflects the current state of technological advancement.

"even internally like where the people use iPhones and stuff and particularly as you like spread out beyond the core Googleplex people and you just go to the subsidiaries and all around the world iMess..."

12
10:49 - 11:55
1:05 duration266 words

Understanding the S-Curve of Innovation

The conversation shifts to the concept of the S-curve in innovation, explaining how technological advancements follow a predictable pattern of slow initial growth, rapid acceleration, and eventual slowdown. The speakers reflect on the historical context of PC development, noting that current advancements are less noticeable compared to the rapid progress seen in the past. This segment provides insights into how the S-curve framework can help understand the lifecycle of technology products.

"reason to be cheap yeah so the s-curve I mean this is an interesting conversation as well and I the thing that I got a lot of flack for on Twitter was was actually just talking about s-curves and so w..."

13
11:55 - 12:37
0:42 duration182 words

The Evolution of Computing Devices

In this segment, the speakers compare the evolution of computing devices, particularly focusing on the transition from propeller planes to jets as a metaphor for technological advancement. They discuss how the current state of PCs reflects a plateau in innovation, while mobile devices continue to accelerate. This segment highlights the importance of recognizing when a technology has reached its peak and the potential for new innovations to emerge.

"because you've basically done as much as you can do and you can't think of anything else to do I wrote a blog post about this in the summer talking about propeller planes and jets and say looking like..."

14
12:37 - 13:19
0:42 duration150 words

Apple's Position on the S-Curve

The discussion centers on Apple's recent innovations with the new MacBooks and how they represent incremental improvements on a flattened S-curve. The speakers analyze Apple's strategy of refining existing products while acknowledging the rapid growth of mobile devices. This segment emphasizes the competitive landscape between PCs and mobile devices, illustrating how Apple is navigating its position within this evolving market.

"and say therefore the sort of the point I was making is that basically what we've seen is Apple with the new MacBooks basically moving a little bit along further along that flattened s-curve I'm sayin..."

15
13:19 - 14:30
1:11 duration237 words

Microsoft's Missed Opportunities

This segment reflects on Microsoft's challenges in the mobile space and its attempts to adapt to the changing landscape of computing. The speakers discuss Microsoft's failure to capitalize on mobile innovations and how this has affected its market position. They explore the implications of Microsoft's strategy to integrate touch into Windows and the difficulties of transitioning from traditional computing paradigms to modern touch interfaces.

"there are PCs sold yep but that's one of the many companies on the arm curve versus all of them yeah exactly and you know people quibble about this about the replacement cycle but that's not really th..."

16
14:30 - 15:02
0:31 duration122 words

The Innovator's Dilemma

The conversation addresses the Innovator's Dilemma faced by established companies like Microsoft and Apple when introducing new technologies. The speakers discuss the challenges of integrating touch into existing operating systems and the trade-offs involved. This segment highlights the complexities of innovation within large organizations and the risks associated with abandoning legacy systems for new paradigms.

"phones anymore and so Microsoft quite sensibly turned around and said okay what do we do about this well we've got to try and add some of this stuff to the old platform so we add touch and we we try a..."

17
15:02 - 16:01
0:59 duration223 words

Navigating Platform Transitions

In this segment, the speakers explore the difficulties of transitioning from traditional computing interfaces to touch-based systems. They discuss the implications of moving from x86 architecture to ARM and the challenges of creating a seamless user experience across different platforms. This segment emphasizes the importance of understanding user needs and the complexities involved in implementing significant technological changes.

"look at iOS like the thing that was most innovative to me about iOS is that they I sat there in the launch of the first iPhone and jobs strategy says the beautiful thing about this is it's really just..."

18
16:01 - 17:01
1:00 duration242 words

The Future of Computing Interfaces

The final segment reflects on the future of computing interfaces and the ongoing evolution of technology. The speakers discuss the historical context of computing advancements and the potential for new innovations to reshape the industry. They emphasize the importance of adaptability and foresight in navigating the rapidly changing landscape of technology, highlighting the need for companies to embrace new paradigms to remain competitive.

"change like the question always became what we should have just done a whole separate thing yeah well so this is like an innovators dilemma a problem well this is the question now is what Apple should..."

19
17:00 - 18:02
1:02 duration253 words

Navigating Interface Transitions

In this segment, the discussion revolves around the challenges of transitioning from traditional mouse and keyboard interfaces to touch-based systems. The speakers highlight the difficulties users face when adapting to new operating systems, particularly iOS, and the implications of moving from x86 to ARM architecture. They emphasize the importance of understanding these transitions in the context of innovation and user experience.

"when does a mouse and you can't get data between like these confusing states they exist and and you hear that and just to be super clear about it you're all the same things if you use like a Mac and y..."

20
18:02 - 19:04
1:01 duration247 words

The Innovator's Dilemma

The conversation delves into the concept of the Innovator's Dilemma, where successful organizations struggle to pivot away from their established products. The speakers reflect on the historical context of innovation in computing, discussing how the evolution of PCs mirrors the current shifts in technology. They stress the importance of recognizing when to embrace new innovations, especially as PCs become more expensive and complex.

"getting at is that the the arm touch in things starts in a little phone right and said but it's not about a little phone just as the PC thing exactly starts as is little thing on a desk and you like b..."

21
19:04 - 20:07
1:03 duration274 words

S-Curve Dynamics in Technology

This segment explores the S-curve of innovation, contrasting the flat part of the curve with the upward trajectory of new technologies. The speakers analyze how Apple and Microsoft are approaching innovation differently, with Apple focusing on optimizing existing technologies while Microsoft is seen as enhancing legacy systems. They discuss the implications of these strategies for the future of computing and user experience.

"never gonna get tired of just analyzing it and thinking about it because I I do think it's a very a very interesting thing but the thing that we have to make sure folks understand that we're coming fr..."

22
20:07 - 21:03
0:56 duration219 words

Comparative Analysis of Devices

The discussion shifts to comparing various devices, such as the Pixel phone, Surface Pro, and MacBook. The speakers debate the merits of these devices in terms of innovation and user experience. They highlight the importance of understanding the context of these comparisons, particularly as operating system providers venture into hardware, and how this affects the competitive landscape.

"of the curve and so it sort of makes me love Apple has had I've been able to draw on my iPad for what a year not with a pen whereas for Microsoft because Microsoft didn't have that thing that was goin..."

23
21:03 - 22:14
1:11 duration269 words

The Touch Bar: Incremental Innovation

In this segment, the speakers discuss Apple's Touch Bar and its implications for user interaction. They analyze how this feature represents an incremental innovation rather than a revolutionary change. The conversation touches on the challenges developers face in adapting to new input methods and the importance of maintaining compatibility with existing applications.

"innovation Apple is things doesn't think that the Mac is the place where all the grace is going to come from well it's about the phone and the tablet hey let's let's we have to talk about for yes cuz ..."

24
22:14 - 23:40
1:25 duration308 words

Rethinking User Interfaces

The speakers reflect on the evolution of user interfaces and the potential for software-driven changes in hardware design. They discuss the limitations of current interaction models and the need for developers to rethink how applications are built in light of new technologies. This segment emphasizes the importance of innovation in user experience and the challenges of adapting legacy systems.

"laptop it doesn't have haptic feedback so it doesn't click when you touch it which I would imagine will come next but it it look does look like part of the keyboard so it's not like glowing or glaring..."

25
23:40 - 24:56
1:15 duration274 words

Ecosystem Challenges in Innovation

This segment addresses the challenges faced by companies like Samsung in innovating within a crowded ecosystem. The speakers discuss the need for rapid component development, software creation, and developer engagement to drive innovation. They highlight the importance of understanding market dynamics and user needs in fostering successful technological advancements.

"computer it works it works super well in that regard for a key ecosystem reason which is basically you know the idea that people the cynical people are saying oh this is Apple like their last-ditch ef..."

26
24:56 - 27:13
2:16 duration490 words

Touch vs. Traditional Interfaces

The final segment contrasts Apple's approach to touch interfaces with Microsoft's Surface Studio. The speakers critique how Microsoft has marketed its new device, emphasizing the need for a fundamental shift in how users interact with technology. They discuss the implications of these approaches for the future of computing and the importance of designing products that prioritize user experience.

"they're so cognizant of the fact that this is sort of an inner incremental innovation that they actually tell you not to try to replace the UI of your app don't do anything revolutionary with it but t..."

27
27:31 - 29:01
1:29 duration326 words

The Changing Nature of Work and Mobility

This segment explores how the nature of work is evolving, with a significant shift towards mobile devices. The speakers discuss the changing roles of salespeople and designers, highlighting the need for software that caters to a mobile-first workforce. They also touch on the limitations of traditional PC-based workflows in the context of modern work environments.

"show me that what they showed me is if I'm a professional illustrator and I've been drawing since I'm 10 and I can put produce beautiful drawings this is a great new tool for me great there's only 7 m..."

28
29:01 - 30:39
1:37 duration394 words

Understanding User Needs Beyond Software

The discussion continues with a focus on the actual needs of users versus the software they claim to require. The speakers analyze how many users do not fully utilize software like PowerPoint or Excel, emphasizing the importance of understanding the underlying tasks that users need to accomplish rather than just the tools they think they need.

"interesting thing is is that like if you're a company like Salesforce building software for twenty five million people you know ten years ago those twenty five million people would bunch up all their ..."

29
30:39 - 32:20
1:40 duration397 words

The Future of Vertical Software and Innovation

In this segment, the speakers discuss the future of vertical software solutions and the slow transition from PC-based systems to mobile platforms. They highlight the importance of domain experts in driving innovation and the need for software that adapts to new workflows, particularly in industries like healthcare and real estate.

"done on this device yet but then there's everyone else and what L would have all these other people doing on there people like in the way to think about it is back to the ecosystem and where innovatio..."

30
32:20 - 33:32
1:11 duration282 words

Navigating the S-Curve of Innovation

The final segment wraps up the discussion by reflecting on the S-curve of innovation and the excitement surrounding new technology. The speakers emphasize the importance of looking at macro-level trends and understanding the long-term impact of innovations, while acknowledging the hard work and creativity of those in the tech industry.

"you know like the Multiple Listing Service for real estate agents here in the US was you know it was very much like a PC based thing and then it moved to the web and then all of a sudden you have redf..."