"What will be at stake will  not just be cool products  But whether liberal democracy survives, Whether the CCP survives, what the world   order for the next century is going to be The CCP is going to ..."

"tell me about the trillion-dollar cluster. Unlike most things that have recently come   out of Silicon Valley, AI is an industrial  process. The next model doesn’t just require   some code. It’s build..."

"most of them will be inference GPUs. US power  production has barely grown for decades.   Now we’re really in for a ride. When I had Zuck on the podcast,   he was claiming not a plateau per se, but th..."

"how feasible is $100 billion a year from  AI revenue? It’s a lot more than right   now. If you believe in the trajectory of  AI systems as I do, it’s not that crazy.  There are like 300 million Micros..."

"interacting with them like coworkers. You  can do Zoom calls and Slack with them. You   can ask them to do a project and they go off and  write a first draft, get feedback, run tests on   their code, ..."

"Again, if it’s 100 tokens a minute, a few million  tokens is a few months of working time. There’s a   lot more you can do in a few months of working  time than just getting an answer right now. The  ..."

"First of all, pre-training is magical.  It gave us a huge advantage for models of   general intelligence because you can predict the  next token. But there’s a common misconception.   Predicting the n..."

"I don’t know, between six months and three  years. But it's possible. It’s also very   related to the issue of the data wall. Here’s one  intuition on learning by yourself. Pre-training   is kind of l..."

"By the way, if that take sounds familiar it's  because it was part of the question I asked   John Schulman. It goes to illustrate the thing  I said in the intro. A bunch of the things I've   learned a..."

"as somebody who was really following the AI stuff. What were you doing in 2023?  OpenAI. When you were at OpenAI in 2023, it was a  weird thing. You almost didn't want to talk about   AI or AGI. It wa..."

"worker. Your stuff is not going to matter. So that's done. SF, this crowd, is paying   attention now. Who is going to be paying  attention in 2026 and 2027? Presumably,   these are years in which hund..."

"They’re superbly competent at all things. They're going to figure out robotics. We   talked about that being a software problem. Well,  you have a billion super smart — smarter than the   smartest hum..."

"it's going to be an extremely  intense international competition.  One thing I'm uncertain about in this picture  is if it’s like what you say, where it's more   of an explosion. You’ve developed an A..."

"more people. The trend lines will become clear. You will see some amount of the COVID dynamic.   COVID in February of 2020 honestly feels a lot  like today. It feels like this utterly crazy thing   is..."

"Again, a lot of this really depends on how  much people are feeling it and how much people   are seeing it. Our generation is so used to  peace, American hegemony and nothing matters.   The historical..."

"The great power conflict definitely seems  compelling. All kinds of different things   seem much more likely when you think  from a historical perspective. You   zoom out beyond the liberal democracy ..."

"things I took away from growing up in Germany. A  lot of this stuff feels more visceral. My mother   grew up in the former East, my father in the  former West. They met shortly after the Wall fell.   ..."

"Will they be in charge though? In some  sense, this is also the case in the   US. This is like the rapidly depreciating  influence of the lab employees. Right now,   the AI lab employees have so much ..."

"Interesting. Let's go back to the $100 billion  revenue question. The companies are trying to   build clusters that are this big. Where  are they building it? Say it's the amount   of energy that woul..."

"Another thing is they can just seize the compute.  The issue here is people right now are thinking   of this as ChatGPT, Big Tech product  clusters. The clusters being planned now,   three to five yea..."

"You can do a lot with 33 million extremely  smart scientists. That might be enough   to build the crazy bio weapons. Then  you're in a situation where they stole   the weights and they seized the comp..."

"If you're in this really tight race, this  sort of feverish struggle, that's when   there's the greatest peril of self-destruction. Presumably the companies that are trying to build   clusters in the ..."

"I think natural gas production in the United  States has almost doubled in a decade. You do   that one more time over the next seven years, you  could power multiple trillion-dollar data centers.  The..."

"We have to do at least one. Then this  stuff is possible in the United States.  Before the conversation I was reading a good book  about World War II industrial mobilization in the   United States cal..."

"It wasn’ just that. Before 1939, the American  military was in total shambles. You read about   it and it reads a little bit like the German  military today. Military expenditures were I think   less ..."

"some point, the same way the United States and  a lot of people in the US government are going   to wake up, the CCP is going to wake up. Companies realize that scaling is a thing.   Obviously their w..."

"work with them, they'll just support China. There's some merit to the argument in the   sense that we should be doing benefit-sharing  with them. On the road to AGI, there should be   two tiers of coa..."

"Suppose you're right. We ended up in this place  because, as one of our friends put it, the Middle   East has billions or trillions of dollars up  for persuasion like no other place in the world.  Wit..."

"espionage, it needs to be much more intense. The thing that people aren't paying enough   attention to is the secrets. The compute stuff is  sexy, but people underrate the secrets. The half   an order..."

"all this stuff was published until recently. Look at Chinchilla Scaling laws, MoE papers,   transformers. All that stuff was published.  That's why open source is good and why China   can make some go..."

"The reason this would matter is if being  one year ahead would be a huge advantage.   In the world where you deploy AI over time  they're just going to catch up anyway.  I interviewed Richard  Rhodes,..."

"might be the difference between a system that's  sort of human-level and a system that is vastly   superhuman. It might be like five OOMs. Look at the current pace. Three years ago,   on the math benc..."

"So you have to look at it from the point of  view that these technologies are dangerous,   from the alignment point of view. It might be  really important during the intelligence explosion   to have a..."