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Garett Jones — Immigration, national IQ, & less democracy

Garett Jones — Immigration, national IQ, & less democracy

48 segments available

Garett Jones is an economist at George Mason University and he is the author of The Cultural Transplant, Hive Mind, and 10% Less Democracy. This episode was fun and interesting throughout! He explains: * How migrants bring their values to their new countries, * Why national IQ matters, * How the Chinese people are an unstoppable global force for free markets, * Why we should have less democracy 𝐄𝐏𝐈𝐒𝐎𝐃𝐄 𝐋𝐈𝐍𝐊𝐒 * Transcript: https://www.dwarkeshpatel.com/p/garett-jones * Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3j3av8m * Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/3wvO1zK * Follow Garett on Twitter: https://twitter.com/garettjones * Follow me on Twitter: https://twitter.com/dwarkesh_sp 𝐓𝐈𝐌𝐄𝐒𝐓𝐀𝐌𝐏𝐒 00:00:00) - Intro 00:01:08) - Migrants Change Countries with Culture or Votes? 00:09:15 - Impact of Immigrants on Markets & Corruption 00:12:02 - 50% Open Borders? 00:16:54 - Chinese are Unstoppable Capitalists 00:21:39 - Innovation & Immigrants 00:24:53 - Open Borders for Migrants Equivalent to Americans? 00:28:54 - Let's Ignore Side Effects? 00:30:25 - Are Poor Countries Stuck? 00:32:26 - How Can Effective Altruists Increase National IQ 00:39:13 - Clone a million John von Neumann? 00:44:39 - Genetic Selection for IQ 00:47:02 - Democracy, Fed, FDA, & Presidential Power 00:49:42 - EU is a force for good? 00:55:12 - Why is America More Libertarian Than Median Voter? 00:56:19 - Is Ethnic Conflict a Short Run Problem? 00:59:38 - Bond Holder Democracy 01:04:57 - Mormonism 01:08:52 - Garett Jones's Immigration System 01:10:12 - Interviewing SBF

Segments Timeline

1
0:41 - 1:09
0:27 duration87 words

Introducing Garett Jones

In this segment, Garett Jones, an economist from George Mason University, introduces his work and books, including 'The Culture Transplant' and '10% Less Democracy.' He discusses how migrants influence the economies of their new countries and sets the stage for a deeper conversation about democracy and migration.

"Today I have the pleasure of speaking with  Garrett Jones who is an economist at George   Mason University. He's most recently  the author of The Culture Transplant:   How Migrants Make the Economies ..."

2
1:09 - 2:20
1:10 duration192 words

Cultural Impact vs. Voting Power

Garett Jones explores the dual impact of migrants on their new countries: cultural influence and political participation. He argues that both aspects are significant, suggesting a 50-50 split in their contributions to shaping a nation's productivity and governance.

"First question. Isn't the cultural transplant a  continuation of your argument against democracy?   Because isn’t one of the reasons we  care about the values of migrants,   the fact that we eliminate..."

3
2:20 - 3:41
1:20 duration228 words

The Role of National IQ

Jones delves into the concept of National IQ, discussing whether the benefits stem from having a higher elite IQ or a lower left tail of low productivity individuals. He emphasizes that the upper tail of intelligence is crucial for innovation and productivity in nations.

"I'll cheat a little bit because we  don't get to run experiments on this,   so I just have to make an informed guess. I'm gonna call it 50-50. The way citizens   influence a country through formal dem..."

4
3:41 - 5:14
1:32 duration225 words

Median vs. Elite IQ in Democracies

In this segment, Jones contrasts median voter influence with elite IQ, arguing that while median IQ is important in democracies, elite IQ can drive significant productivity gains. He cites examples from Gulf states and South Africa to illustrate his points.

"who are disrupting the whole process. The risks  of crime from the lower end is a probabilistic   risk. It's not like some zero to one switch.  We're talking about something probabilistic.  The median..."

5
5:14 - 6:14
1:00 duration157 words

Innovation and Elite Contributions

Jones discusses the importance of elite contributions to innovation, suggesting that the positive externalities from high achievers can outweigh the negatives associated with lower-skilled individuals. He presents a case for valuing elite intelligence in economic discussions.

"Hmm. Interesting. Does that imply the fact that,   at least in certain contexts, that elite IQ  matters more than the left tail? Does that imply   that we should want a greater deviation of IQ in  a c..."

6
6:14 - 7:25
1:11 duration181 words

The Trade-offs of Immigration

This segment addresses the complexities of immigration policy, particularly regarding low-skilled migrants. Jones argues that while low-skilled immigration may lower average IQ, it could also increase variance, which he believes has its own set of implications for society.

"Can we just apply this line of reasoning to  low skilled immigration as well then? Maybe   the average IQ of your country goes down if you  just let in millions of low skilled immigration   immigrants..."

7
7:25 - 8:52
1:26 duration237 words

Cultural Norms and Assimilation

Jones introduces his 'spaghetti theory,' explaining how cultural norms evolve through the interaction of migrants and natives. He emphasizes that migrants can influence the cultural landscape of their new countries, leading to a blend of values.

"Yes but if you get rid of their migrant's  ability to vote, let’s assume you could do   that, what is the exact mechanism by which  the, the, the cultural values or the lower   median is impacting the..."

8
8:52 - 10:03
1:11 duration210 words

Statistical Analysis of Immigration Effects

In this segment, Jones critiques previous studies on immigration and economic freedom, presenting his own statistical findings that suggest a negative relationship between low-skilled migration and economic freedom, challenging the prevailing narratives.

"Native Americans certainly changed in  response to the movement of Europeans.   English Americans certainly changed  in response to the migration of German   and Irish Americans. So this meeting in th..."

9
10:03 - 12:00
1:57 duration332 words

Cultural Values and Migration

Jones discusses the cultural values that migrants bring to their new countries, asserting that these values can be both beneficial and detrimental. He speculates on the percentage of the world with cultural values that align positively with American values.

"freedom. I just used the normal economist tool.  I thought about how economists check to see if   changes in the money supply  change the price level?  That's what we call the quantity theory.  The wa..."

10
12:00 - 13:17
1:16 duration187 words

Radical Immigration Liberalization

Jones contemplates policies for immigration liberalization, suggesting that countries with higher education and savings rates should be prioritized for migration to the U.S. He argues for a strategic approach to immigration that enhances national productivity.

"got. And sometimes it's just up for debate. So if you had to guess what percentage of the   world has cultural values that are equivalent  to or better than the average of America’s?  Equivalent to or..."

11
13:17 - 14:58
1:41 duration336 words

Maximizing Talent in America

In this segment, Jones emphasizes the importance of maximizing talent in America, advocating for hiring the best individuals regardless of their background. He discusses the implications of hiring practices on national productivity and innovation.

"US level on all three. Why do they have to be   higher? Why not just equivalent? Part of the reason is because the   entire world depends on US innovation. So we  should make America as good as possib..."

12
14:58 - 16:14
1:16 duration213 words

Externalities of Immigration

Jones elaborates on the concept of externalities in immigration, arguing that bringing in individuals with lower productivity can negatively impact the overall productivity of a nation. He stresses the need to consider these externalities in immigration policy.

"better but the median is a little bit  lower. Because the median's shaping the   productivity of the whole team. This is what  it means when you believe in externalities.  But if you have somebody who..."

13
16:14 - 18:09
1:55 duration318 words

Communism and National Prosperity

Jones critiques communism as a detrimental force for national prosperity, using China as a case study. He argues that the legacy of communism has long-lasting effects on institutional quality and economic performance.

"roots literature that are widely used. Two are S and A. That is State History   and Agricultural History. That's how many  thousands of years your ancestors have had   experience living under organize..."

14
18:09 - 19:14
1:04 duration195 words

Deep Roots Literature and Economic Performance

In this concluding segment, Jones discusses the reliability of deep roots literature in explaining economic performance, particularly in relation to China and India. He argues that the unique historical contexts of these countries challenge conventional predictions.

"cul-de-sac and they just don't quite know how to  get out of it. And it's for the people who live   there. If the other side had won the Chinese  Civil War, things would probably be a lot,   lot bette..."

15
19:31 - 20:37
1:05 duration169 words

The Importance of Testing All Variables

In this segment, Jones highlights the significance of including all relevant variables in economic studies. He points out that previous analyses overlooked key factors, such as the 'T' in the SAT scores, which could provide a more accurate understanding of the economic performance of nations like China and India.

"When Brian Kaplan made the claim that the ancestry  scores, the deep root scores don't predict   the low performance of India and China he only  checked the S and the A in the S A T scores.   Which le..."

16
20:37 - 22:09
1:32 duration232 words

Innovation and the Role of Immigration

Jones discusses the relationship between innovation and immigration, arguing that while new ideas may be harder to find, the existing innovations still hold immense value. He suggests that maintaining a few innovation powerhouses is crucial for global progress and proposes using countries like Iceland as experimental grounds for open borders.

"Okay, interesting. The puzzle goes away. Somehow   these guys just never seem to run the simple  things, the transparent things. I don’t know.  The one you mentioned, what was it? Nowrasteh?  The name..."

17
22:09 - 23:50
1:41 duration283 words

Open Borders: A Case for Iceland

Jones advocates for open borders in countries with good institutional quality, using Iceland as a prime example. He argues that experimenting with open borders in a lightly populated country could yield insights without jeopardizing the institutional integrity of major innovation centers.

"ideas that we're still getting are still worth so  much. If we're still increasing lifespan a month   for every year of research we're doing, that just  seems great. A decade that adds a year to life,..."

18
23:50 - 25:30
1:39 duration316 words

The Trade-Off of Immigration Policies

In this segment, Jones explores the trade-off between admitting high-skilled immigrants and maintaining a country's average productivity. He emphasizes the importance of selecting immigrants who can enhance the overall productivity and externalities of the host country.

"If you wanted to get Singapore levels of  population density in Iceland, that'd be   about 300 million people. I think that's  about what the numbers end up looking like.  But the value of open border..."

19
25:30 - 27:03
1:33 duration255 words

The Dilemma of Population Growth

Jones raises concerns about the potential dilution of productivity when admitting lower-skilled immigrants. He discusses the implications of population growth on national productivity and the challenges of balancing high-skill immigration with maintaining institutional quality.

"No. Take the simple version of my story,  which is the median of the population ends   up shaping the productivity of everybody in  the country. The mean skill level ends up   shaping the productivity..."

20
27:03 - 29:36
2:32 duration468 words

First-Order Effects of Immigration

Jones argues for the importance of considering first-order effects when discussing immigration policies. He suggests that moving individuals from poorer countries to richer ones can have immediate positive impacts, despite the uncertainty surrounding long-term consequences.

"open borders for everybody who's over 85? This ends up being a math problem that’s a little   hard to solve on a podcast. It's a question of do  I want a smaller country with super high average   prod..."

21
29:36 - 30:58
1:22 duration242 words

Running Experiments in Iceland

Jones proposes conducting immigration experiments in countries like Iceland rather than the US, emphasizing the need for controlled environments to assess the impacts of open borders on institutional quality and economic outcomes.

"Because if you have a compelling reason to think  that the direction of strength of the second and   third and fourth order things are negative and the  variance is really wide, then you're just addin..."

22
30:58 - 32:04
1:05 duration213 words

Creating Welcoming Environments for Migrants

Jones discusses the potential for poor countries to improve their economic conditions by creating welcoming environments for migrants, particularly from China. He highlights the historical context of migration and the need for policies that encourage skilled migration.

"could do is create a welcoming environment for  large numbers of Chinese migrants to move there   persistently. I don't think that's of course the  only thing that could ever work, but I think it's   ..."

23
32:04 - 34:28
2:23 duration364 words

Boosting National IQ through Public Health

In this segment, Jones outlines strategies for increasing national IQ in poorer countries through public health and education interventions. He emphasizes the importance of nutrition and health in child development as a means to enhance cognitive abilities and long-term productivity.

"Famously so in Indonesia. There have been many  times across Southeast Asia where anti-Chinese   pogroms have unfortunately been a fact of life. Or Indians in Uganda under Idi Amin. I'm curious how yo..."

24
34:28 - 35:30
1:02 duration187 words

The Long-Term Effects of Migration on IQ

Jones examines the long-term implications of migrating individuals from lower IQ countries to higher IQ countries. He discusses the potential negative externalities that could arise from such migrations and the importance of considering the overall impact on institutional quality.

"Well, that's a classic short run versus  long run effect. Libertarians and open   borders advocates tend to be focused  on the short run, static effects.  You're right, moving kids from poor countries..."

25
35:30 - 37:07
1:36 duration277 words

Migration's Role in Innovation

In this segment, Jones examines the relationship between migration and innovation, questioning whether historical migrations have positively influenced global innovation. He reflects on the potential benefits and drawbacks of migration on the innovation landscape, particularly in the context of the European invasion of North America.

"lower institutional quality, productivity, and  savings rates. It's hard to avoid that outcome.  I don't remember the exact figures,  but didn't Bryan address this in his   Open Borders book as well, ..."

26
37:07 - 39:13
2:06 duration356 words

Cultural Traits and Economic Productivity

Jones discusses how cultural traits inherited from ancestors can impact economic productivity and income disparities across different ethnic groups. He emphasizes the importance of personal responsibility and frugality as cultural factors that contribute to long-term productivity and economic success.

"Yep. Do you think that the people who are  currently Americans, but their ancestry,   traces back to countries with low S  A T scores? Is it possible that US   GDP per capita would be higher without t..."

27
39:13 - 40:35
1:22 duration224 words

Theoretical Impacts of Cloning Intelligence

In a thought-provoking discussion, Jones considers the hypothetical scenario of cloning a million individuals with exceptionally high IQs, like John von Neumann. He evaluates the potential economic impact of such an increase in national IQ and its implications for GDP growth, while acknowledging the complexities involved.

"There was a blogger who took a look at your 2004  paper about the impact of National IQ on GDP.   They were just speculating, let's say you  cloned a million John Von Neumann’s and assume   that John ..."

28
40:35 - 42:58
2:23 duration401 words

Allocating Intelligence for Maximum Impact

Jones debates the optimal allocation of intelligence across regions, weighing the benefits of agglomeration in innovation hubs like Silicon Valley against the need for a more equitable distribution of talent. He discusses the importance of geographic proximity for productivity and the role of status games in intellectual pursuits.

"If you had a choice of which country  to have the million John Von Neumanns,   it's probably gonna be one of the I-7. Maybe  Switzerland would be a good alternative.  What is the optimal allocation of..."

29
42:58 - 44:41
1:42 duration193 words

Increasing Returns to National IQ

Jones presents his findings on the relationship between national IQ and economic productivity, suggesting that there are increasing returns to national IQ. He connects this to the organization of labor and the multiplicative effects of enhanced cognitive abilities on overall productivity.

"people leave Kentucky and go to San Francisco? I'm a big agglomeration guy. The internet makes it   easier but being in the room is still important. There's something both Hansonian and Girardian   he..."

30
44:41 - 45:39
0:58 duration178 words

Genetic Selection for Intelligence

In this segment, Jones discusses the ethics and implications of genetic selection for intelligence. He argues that voluntary genetic selection could have positive effects on national IQ and societal outcomes, highlighting the existing practices of genetic selection in modern culture.

"Are you a fan of genetic selection for  intelligence as a means of increasing   national IQ or do you think that's  too much playing at the margins? If it's voluntary, people should  be able to do wha..."

31
45:39 - 46:31
0:51 duration138 words

AI and Human Intelligence

Jones reflects on the measured IQ of AI models like ChatGPT, discussing the implications for human jobs and the future of work. He considers how advancements in AI could disrupt traditional roles and the potential challenges this poses for various professions.

"What do you make of the fact that  Chat GPT had a measured IQ of 85?  Yeah, I've seen a few different measures of  this. You might have seen multiple measures   too. When you see people using non IQ t..."

32
46:31 - 49:42
3:11 duration522 words

Democracy and Institutional Effectiveness

Jones analyzes the effectiveness of different government institutions, contrasting the Federal Reserve's independence with the challenges faced by the FDA and CDC. He argues for the need to enhance the independence of regulatory bodies to improve their performance and accountability.

"simple problems. That's pretty bad news for  their careers. I'm disappointed to hear that.   At least for the transition. I dunno  what's gonna happen after the transition.  I'm hoping that's not true..."

33
49:42 - 51:04
1:21 duration219 words

The European Union's Market Influence

In this segment, Jones discusses the European Union's role in shaping market dynamics and economic freedom among member states. He reflects on the EU's influence on market policies and the varying degrees of market friendliness among European voters compared to Americans.

"appointed technocrats, but they seem more  interested in creating annoying popups on   your websites than with dealing with the  end of economic growth on the continent.  Is this a story where more de..."

34
51:04 - 52:16
1:11 duration181 words

Migration's Impact on Economic Openness

Jones concludes by speculating on how migration has shaped America's economic openness compared to Europe. He suggests that the adventurous spirit of migrants has contributed to a more laissez-faire attitude in the U.S., influencing its economic landscape.

"What do you think explains the fact  that Europe as a whole and the voters   there are less market friendly than Americans? Compared to the planet as a whole, they're pretty   good. I never get that e..."

35
52:10 - 53:15
1:04 duration173 words

Elite Control in Democracies

Jones explores the effectiveness of elite technocratic control in democracies, arguing that it can be beneficial even in less affluent nations. He critiques the notion that elite control is only effective in high IQ countries, suggesting that moderate democracies can still benefit from expert governance.

"more open to laissez faire than Europe would be. Does that overall make you more optimistic about   migration to the US from anywhere? The same story Yeah, ceteris paribus. America gets people who   a..."

36
53:15 - 54:44
1:28 duration209 words

Romanticizing Monarchy vs. Oligarchy

Jones critiques the neoreactionary view that romanticizes monarchy, arguing that successful monarchies often function more like oligarchies. He emphasizes the importance of understanding the balance of power between rulers and councils in effective governance.

"and steer everything toward themselves and  not give a darn about the masses at all.  A lot of elite control in any kind of democracy is  gonna have a good effect if you're really looking   at somethi..."

37
54:44 - 56:19
1:35 duration259 words

Voter Preferences and Government Involvement

Discussing Bryan Kaplan's insights, Jones examines the disconnect between median voter preferences for government involvement and actual policies in the U.S. He highlights the challenges politicians face in balancing voter demands with the need for economic growth.

"the equilibrium. Something more like a corporate  board and less like either the libertarian ideal   of the entrepreneur who owns the firm, or the  monarch who has the long-term interest in being   a ..."

38
56:19 - 57:58
1:38 duration263 words

Ethnic Diversity and Conflict

Jones addresses the persistence of ethnic conflict, suggesting that while some conflicts may fade, humans will always seek focal points for division. He discusses the correlation between cultural values and ethnicity as a source of conflict, emphasizing the need for uncorrelated values to reduce tensions.

"Over the long run, should we expect all of  the tensions of ethnic diversity to fade away?   Nobody today worries about the different Parisian  tribes in France butting heads at the workplace.  Yeah, ..."

39
57:58 - 59:39
1:41 duration299 words

The Role of Technology in Vetting Services

In this segment, Jones discusses how technology, particularly online ratings and reviews, has lowered the barriers for entering various professions. He emphasizes the importance of transparency and the need to protect honest reviews to enhance service quality.

"some of these things will fade with time. The  problem with human beings, one of our great evils,   is that we are always looking for a focal point. People will use visible appearance as a horrifying ..."

40
59:39 - 1:01:50
2:11 duration358 words

Bondholder Democracy and Corporate Longevity

Jones explores the concept of bondholder democracy, questioning why corporations tend to have short lifespans despite the accountability bondholders provide. He argues that the natural cycle of business innovation and failure is beneficial for economic growth.

"in 10% less democracy was the  chapter on bond holder democracy.  I'm curious, corporations are obviously  an example to use here where they do have   bond holders who hold them accountable but the  a..."

41
1:01:50 - 1:03:31
1:41 duration301 words

Fiscal Policy and Bondholder Influence

Jones discusses the implications of low treasury yields and the influence of bondholders on U.S. fiscal policy. He predicts that the U.S. will address its fiscal challenges through tax hikes and spending cuts, particularly affecting the poor and middle class.

"send a market signal to move capital from low  productivity to high productivity projects. Why are yields on 30 year fixed treasuries so low?  Because theoretically, investors should know that   we ha..."

42
1:03:31 - 1:04:46
1:14 duration161 words

The Future of the Welfare State

In this segment, Jones speculates on the future of the welfare state in America, suggesting that while it may shrink in quality or quantity, economic growth will still improve healthcare over time. He reflects on the balance between maintaining welfare and ensuring economic productivity.

"the middle class. That's probably the most  likely outcome. Hence no hyperinflation.  So are you expecting the welfare state to  shrink either in quality or quantity over time?  In relative terms, com..."

43
1:04:46 - 1:07:46
2:59 duration470 words

Mormonism and Community Trust

Jones delves into the deep roots of Mormonism, attributing its high levels of trust and community cohesion to historical selection processes. He discusses how the challenges faced by early Mormons fostered a culture of commitment and prosocial behavior.

"fiscal policy credibility and they'll take action. What are the deep roots of Mormonism? Why do   they have such high trust and  such tight-knit communities?  I think part of it is that they reflect  ..."

44
1:07:46 - 1:08:36
0:50 duration155 words

Mormon Frugality and Economic Impact

Jones reflects on the economic implications of Mormon frugality, suggesting that it contributes positively to the capital stock of the U.S. He discusses the potential long-term benefits of this frugality for future generations.

"helping make us all more productive, which I think  is something that fits in with Mormon values.  Yeah. I think people have pointed out that people  should be spending more money given the fact that ..."

45
1:08:36 - 1:08:52
0:15 duration46 words

Social Trust and Multi-Level Marketing

In this closing segment, Jones addresses the downside of high social trust within the Mormon community, particularly regarding the proliferation of multi-level marketing schemes. He critiques these schemes as exploitative and indicative of rent-seeking behavior.

"them for decades. That's one of the popular  multi-level marketing schemes that actually   gets to men. A lot of them are targeted  at women through cosmetics, as you might   know. But at least the me..."

46
1:09:53 - 1:10:13
0:20 duration64 words

Deep Roots and Immigration Policy

Garett Jones proposes a long-term research project to integrate deep roots scores into immigration policy. He compares the current understanding of deep roots literature to Milton Friedman's early monetarism theories, suggesting that while the ideas are not yet policy-ready, they could inform a points-based immigration system in the future.

"know which points I'd use. But something along  those lines is worth thinking about. I would   never use any quotas or hard cutoffs. If you  think about point space systems, 10-20 years of   further r..."

47
1:10:13 - 1:11:14
1:01 duration188 words

Reflections on Interviewing SBF

Jones reflects on his past interview with Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF), expressing a desire to revisit the conversation with more informed questions. He acknowledges the complexities of the situation and the importance of understanding the financial fraud that occurred, emphasizing the need for better oversight in financial institutions.

"How was the SBF thing? Did he  just say “I'll fly you out?”  I was there for the EA Bahamas  and then while I was there, I   talked to somebody who knew him and I'm  like, “Hey, I would love to interv..."

48
1:11:14 - 1:13:19
2:04 duration327 words

The Risks of High IQ Societies

In this thought-provoking segment, Jones discusses the dual nature of high IQ individuals in society. While they may be less likely to commit fraud, when they do, they can be exceptionally skilled at it. He warns of the potential dangers posed by intelligent individuals in a zero-sum economic environment, where competition could lead to destructive behaviors.

"I'm really curious to ask you this, because in  Hive Mind you're talking about the fact that   higher IQ people on average are more cooperative  in prisoner's dilemma type situations and I just   inte..."