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Byrne Hobart - FTX, Drugs, Twitter, Taiwan, & Monasticism
Sam Bankman-Fried

Byrne Hobart - FTX, Drugs, Twitter, Taiwan, & Monasticism

Dec 1, 2022

Key Takeaways


Perhaps the most interesting episode so far.

Byrne Hobart writes at thediff.co, analyzing inflections in finance and tech.

He explains:
- What happened at FTX
- How drugs have induced past financial bubbles
- How to be long AI while hedging Taiwan invasion
- Whether Musk’s Twitter takeover will succeed.
- Where to find the next Napoleon and LBJ
- & ultimately how society can deal with those who seek domination

Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/3GYC6B1
Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3VKmncT
Episode Website: https://www.dwarkeshpatel.com/p/byrne-hobart-2

Follow me for updates on future episodes: https://twitter.com/dwarkesh_sp

Timestamps:
0:00:00 Intro
0:00:50 What the hell happened at FTX?
0:07:03 How SBF Faked Being a Genius: 
0:12:23 Drugs Explain Financial Bubbles
0:17:54 On Founder Physiognomy
0:21:44 Indexing Parental Involvement in Raising Talented Kids
0:31:17 Where are all the Caro-level Biographers?
0:39:45 Where are today's Great Founders? 
0:49:07 Micro Writing = Macro Understanding
0:52:13 Elon's Twitter Takeover
1:01:33 Does Big Tech & West Have Great People?
1:12:17 Philosophical Fanatics and Effective Altruism 
1:18:00 What Great Founders Have In Common
1:20:39 Thinkers vs. Analyzers
1:26:22 Taiwan Invasion bets & AI Timelines

Video