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There’s a quote I heard a long time ago that goes something like this - “India has consistently disappointed both the optimists and the pessimists”. It is equal parts pithy and profound, and does a somewhat passable job of summarising the multitudes contained in 21st century India. It’s a quote that was brought to life for me numerous times in my conversation with this week’s guest on Infinite Loops - Sajith Pai. Sajith is a GP at Blume Ventures, one of India’s largest homegrown VC firms. He's known for his prolific writing and sharp frameworks that have become part of Indian startup canon over the past decade. In 2018, he swapped a long-time career as a media executive for one as a venture capitalist. This changing of lanes, relatively late in his professional life, has given him a refreshingly nuanced perspective on the Indian startup ecosystem (which he’s bestowed with the moniker of ‘Indus Valley’, as a nod to both Silicon Valley as well as the Indus Valley Civilisation, one of the cradles of the ancient world and the ancestral civilisation of the Indian people). His most compelling insight? That India isn't the monolithic 1.5-billion-person market that many Westerners believe. Instead, it's three distinct "countries" hiding in plain sight. There's India One: 120 million affluent, English-speaking urbanites (think the population of Germany) who love their iPhones and Starbucks. Then comes India Two: 300 million aspiring middle-class citizens who inhabit the digital economy but not yet the consumption economy. Finally, there's India Three: a massive population with a similar demographic profile to Sub-Saharan Africa, that’s still waiting for its invitation to join India’s bright future. ‘India 1-2-3’ is one amongst many pearls of wisdom that Sajith gifted me over our conversation, that also touched on India as a "digital welfare state", India as a ‘low trust society’; the emergence of a new class of ‘Indo-Anglians’; how cultural nuances in India shape everything from app design to payment systems; and much, much more. Whether you're an investor, founder, or just curious about where the next decade of innovation might come from, this conversation is your crash course to understanding India in the 21st century. Sajith likes to say that ‘India is not for beginners’. Well, if you are a beginner on India, this week you’re in luck. For the full transcript, episode takeaways, and bucketloads of other goodies designed to make you go, “Hmm, that’s interesting!”, check out our Substack - https://8ca54796.streaklinks.com/CJPd0z7cXCh07hc4JAiMaKTC/https%3A%2F%2Fnewsletter.osv.llc%2F. Important Links: - Sajith’s website - https://sajithpai.com/ - Sajith’s Twitter - https://x.com/sajithpai - Sajith’s Substack - https://sajithpai.substack.com/ - Blume VC’s Indus Valley Annual Report 2024 - https://www.indusvalleyreport.com/ Show Notes: 0:00:00 Intro 0:00:50 Main podcast 0:01:31 The Three Indias 0:06:19 Navigating India in the 21st century 0:10:07 India as a ‘low trust’ society 0:18:11 Touring India Two 0:24:17 The States and the Union 0:27:40 Caste and Class in Modern India 0:29:34 Governance and The Government 0:38:20 The Brain Drain 0:42:52 The English Tax 0:51:29 The Rise of the Indo-Anglians 0:59:25 ‘I, Writer’ 1:06:02 On Media and Markets 1:11:47 India as a Digital Welfare state 1:23:23 The Virtues of Leapfrogging 1:31:08 Sajith, The Emperor of the World Books and Articles Mentioned: - The Fortune at the Bottom of the Pyramid - https://www.amazon.in/Fortune-Bottom-Pyramid-Eradicating-Poverty/dp/8177587765; by C. K. Prahalad - Supercommunicators - https://www.amazon.in/Supercommunicators-Unlock-Secret-Language-Connection/dp/0593243919; by Charles Duhigg - Career Advice - https://dilbertblog.typepad.com/the_dilbert_blog/2007/07/career-advice.html; by Scott Adams - The Indus Valley Report 2024 - https://blume.vc/reports/indus-valley-annual-report-2024; by Blume VC
Sajith Pai discusses the common misconception that India is a monolithic market of 1.5 billion people. He emphasizes the need to recognize the distinct segments within the population, highlighting that only a small percentage is affluent and educated. This segment sets the stage for understanding the complexities of the Indian market, which is often oversimplified by outsiders.
"India is sort of seen by many American BCS as this great untapped country with 1.5 billion people but we see it a bit as a monolith out of the 1.4 billion people about 600 million people in the labor ..."
In this segment, Sajith introduces his framework of 'India 1, 2, and 3', categorizing the population into three distinct groups. India One consists of affluent urbanites, India Two represents the aspiring middle class, and India Three includes those largely excluded from economic opportunities. This classification is crucial for understanding the varied consumer behaviors and market potentials across the country.
"wouldn't mind uh one of the things that I have been learning a lot about that I'm sure that many of our listeners and viewers don't know too much about is India is sort of seen by many American BCS as..."
Sajith elaborates on the challenges and opportunities within India's economic landscape, particularly for startups. He explains how most products cater to India One and Two, while India Three remains largely untapped. This segment provides insights into the strategic considerations for businesses looking to enter the Indian market.
"but really most products really appeal to 30 million households 120 million people and if it can appeal to India to then it's really a big big big big product uh so that is sort of the three nations a..."
Sajith discusses the concept of India as a low trust society, explaining how cultural factors influence consumer behavior and business practices. He contrasts the high trust environment of the venture ecosystem with the general public's skepticism, highlighting the implications for product design and market entry strategies.
"experimentally uh we we don't have any preconceived notions about how that might or might not work but you've also written elsewhere that India is a low trust society and are Are there specific things..."
In this segment, Sajith shares practical examples of how businesses can build trust in a low trust economy. He discusses the friction in online purchasing processes and the prevalence of cash on delivery as a preferred payment method. This insight is vital for understanding consumer preferences and the operational challenges faced by e-commerce in India.
"really have uh uh like anything about 10 thou 105,000 so lot of that permeates itself through the cting um with regards to your second question how do you build products uh which are high trust uh ver..."
Sajith reflects on the evolving landscape of trust in India, noting the gradual shift towards digital payments and online shopping. He expresses optimism about the potential for increased trust and reduced friction in transactions, particularly in India One and Two. This segment highlights the ongoing transformation in consumer behavior and the implications for businesses.
"interesting this not related to trust as much but so much as so what it means is aligned with cash on delivery aligned with the fact that addresses are hard to pass and Etc they have return rates whic..."
Sajith shares insights into consumer behavior in India, particularly focusing on the importance of value over price. He discusses successful companies that have tailored their products to meet the needs of India Two, emphasizing the significance of understanding local market dynamics. This segment highlights how companies can thrive by offering high-value products at accessible prices.
"adoption curve and and what are your thoughts on how that might happen uh I could probably understand how you penetrate the aspiring country number two that's just below that 30 million figure you gav..."
In this segment, Sajith highlights innovative market strategies employed by companies like Tata and Hero Group to penetrate India Two. He discusses how these companies have successfully launched products by working backward from desired price points and ensuring relevance to Indian consumers. This approach has led to significant market success and demonstrates the adaptability of businesses in the Indian context.
"India too uh some of them are startups some of them are not necessarily startups in the trest sense but they are really larger companies uh you know launching Brands and one successful company is zudu..."
Sajith addresses the challenges of reaching India Three, the segment of the population that remains economically disadvantaged. He references C.K. Prahalad's work on the 'Fortune at the Bottom of the Pyramid' and discusses the difficulties in marketing to this demographic. This segment underscores the complexities of addressing the needs of India's poorest citizens while highlighting potential strategies for engagement.
"and extremely they were extremely successful uh so uh so this it's it's it's it's it's kind of said uh that uh Indian consumers are not low low price but the high value more than low price right and t..."
In this segment, Sajith reveals that only 1.5% of India's population pays income tax, discussing the implications of this statistic on economic participation and governance. He explores how low tax participation affects public goods and accountability, drawing parallels with historical contexts in the U.S. This segment highlights the challenges of fostering a more inclusive economic environment in India.
"he's he's passed away he was an American academic he was at the University of M ARA he wrote this book called The Fortune at the bottom of the pyramid where you talked about how Indian companies can a..."
Sajith discusses the role of the Indian government in economic growth, acknowledging both its proactive measures and the challenges it poses. He emphasizes the need for reforms in taxation and regulatory frameworks to support innovation and investment. This segment provides insights into the relationship between government policies and the entrepreneurial landscape in India.
"stat that kind of blew my mind uh which is only 1.5% of the total population in India pays an income tax yeah this yeah yeah so what's what noting is and uh uh and and this is how our two countries ha..."
In this segment, Sajith reflects on the ongoing influence of the caste system in India and its correlation with economic success. He discusses how caste dynamics affect opportunities and access to resources, particularly for lower castes. This segment highlights the complexities of social structures in shaping economic outcomes in contemporary India.
"of very different discussion and I I probably shouldn't go there uh there's also been uh a desire by the Indian state to not expand the tax base the the the direct tax base uh so sort of uh there's a ..."
Sajith addresses the rise of economic nationalism in India and its implications for global companies. He discusses the challenges faced by foreign businesses in navigating India's regulatory landscape and the increasing demand for local compliance. This segment sheds light on the evolving relationship between India and international markets.
"drive large cars and there's a trend towards uh richer households buying more and more cars while public transport is used not enough public transport is used there is a saying in the west that a rich..."
In this concluding segment, Sajith shares his thoughts on the future of India's economic landscape, emphasizing the importance of government reforms and the potential for growth. He discusses the need for a balanced approach to taxation and regulation to foster innovation while addressing the challenges posed by economic nationalism. This segment encapsulates the overarching themes of the conversation.
"privileged member of the apas so uh I won't see it it's sort of uh it's hard for me to kind of uh see the much like for example if you're a member of the minority in the US uh you will encounter for m..."
Sajith Pai discusses the emerging trend of economic nationalism in India and its implications for global companies. He highlights the Indian government's desire for control over digital platforms, drawing parallels with similar movements in Brazil and the challenges faced by companies like WhatsApp. This segment emphasizes the importance of understanding local dynamics in the Indian market and the potential risks for foreign investors.
"growth the other minor risk and this is not so much for Indian companies but for I would say global companies is that there is a uh and and this not only India there is a sort of economic nationalism ..."
In this segment, Sajith Pai elaborates on the critical role of WhatsApp in India's digital landscape, comparing it to the significance of WeChat in China. He discusses the necessity for the Indian state to recognize the importance of such platforms for economic growth and connectivity, while also addressing the challenges posed by regulatory demands.
"but we so I would say these three uh a little bit of of temperamental tax treatments uh uh laws being uh you know applied kidos uh a little indiscriminately and the third thing that I was mentioning J..."
Sajith shares insights from a conversation with a venture capitalist in Bangladesh, highlighting the misconceptions Westerners have about internet adoption rates. He explains that while traditional metrics may show low usage, platforms like WhatsApp and Facebook are widely used, underscoring the need for better questions to understand digital engagement in emerging markets.
"three ways in which the government sort of kind of uh you know you know creates challenges I would say yeah we are investors in a fund uh that concentrates on Bangladesh and one of the uh GPS there sa..."
Sajith discusses the Indian government's understanding of the digital economy and the importance of apps like WhatsApp for economic development. He reflects on the balance between regulation and fostering innovation, emphasizing that while there are risks, India is progressing towards becoming a global economic powerhouse.
"I think I think they do understand uh it's just that I think there are very powerful forces uh uh and and it's not unique to India alone uh we're seeing that in Brazil we're seeing it in China the sta..."
In this segment, Sajith examines the ongoing trend of migration among India's youth, particularly from Punjab and Kerala. He discusses the economic factors driving this migration, including the search for better job opportunities abroad, and the implications for India's labor market and economy.
"do you still see a diaspora of people of some of the brightest minds and who would make natural or uh has that um them leaving for places like the United States or uh other much more uh conducive to F..."
Sajith introduces the concept of the 'English tax,' which refers to the dominance of English in India's communication and public life. He explains how this creates barriers for non-English speakers, affecting access to opportunities and resources, and discusses the historical context of English as a gatekeeping mechanism in Indian society.
"migrate out and uh I was recently reading this uh podcast where the economist editors in India were being interviewed and one of them spoke about how when you go to Punjab almost every hoing you can s..."
Sajith elaborates on how English proficiency affects job opportunities in India, particularly in corporate settings. He notes that while English is essential for elite positions, it inadvertently creates a divide, limiting access for those who are not fluent, and discusses the implications of this divide on social mobility.
"positive for everyone because many of them send money back but what we're seeing in blue color uh kind of migration is uh been is something that's very interesting and uh uh I I I do think a lot of it..."
In this segment, Sajith reflects on the cultural implications of language barriers in India, sharing personal anecdotes about the challenges faced by non-English speakers. He discusses the potential for AI and translation technologies to bridge these gaps and improve accessibility in a rapidly evolving digital landscape.
"piece uh that looks at what you call the English txt uh talk a little bit about about that and I thought that piece very uh intriguing so the English tax is essentially uh fact that much of the Indian..."
Sajith introduces the concept of a new educated class in India, characterized by inter-caste and inter-religion marriages. He discusses the visibility and invisibility of this class, exploring how their experiences shape the socio-economic landscape of modern India and the challenges they face in a diverse society.
"wearing a Sor of okay and they were old people and they were sitting peacefully and uh you know this seemed um you know uh I can't prove for sure but this they were speaking in Canada and I thought li..."
Sajith Pai discusses the role of English in India's job market, highlighting how English speakers often gain access to better opportunities. He reflects on the global dominance of English as a language and shares a personal anecdote about the challenges non-native speakers face in understanding idiomatic expressions, illustrating the complexities of language in professional settings.
"knew English and who got into the bureaucracy who got access to the top jobs Etc and so that sort of continued and uh and and I I don't think it's very intentional gatekeeping but certainly uh it help..."
Sajith introduces the concept of a new elite class in India, characterized by highly educated, affluent individuals who often engage in inter-caste and inter-religion marriages. He explains the paradox of this class being both visible and invisible in society, and shares his experience of how his writing on this topic resonated with many while also attracting criticism.
"English is a fairly easy language to learn how to speak poorly um it has it's a ton of idiom especially American English is filled with idioms I I once had a guy who was a native Spanish speaker worke..."
In this segment, Sajith explores the limitations of Indian languages in expressing emotional nuances compared to English. He discusses the implications of this linguistic gap on interpersonal communication and the importance of emotional vocabulary in relationships, drawing on insights from Charles Duhigg's work on communication.
"little bit about that yeah that was uh my first big hit when it came to writing I've been writing for a long while and then I wrote this article and it just went viral across India uh I got a lot of f..."
Sajith shares a conversation with a Japanese colleague about how language influences thought and behavior. He emphasizes the importance of understanding emotions in decision-making, particularly in the context of capitalism, and how cultural backgrounds shape approaches to business and leadership.
"and uh one way uh is one way to kind of become a member of this is typically uh be from when you and your wife are from different communities two languages um and often uh the K you know uh speaks in ..."
Sajith discusses the significance of writing in his career as a venture capitalist, contrasting the dynamics of the VC landscape in India with that of the US. He explains how writing helps him stand out in a competitive field and why he believes that credentials alone are not enough to make an impact in the industry.
"limited vocabulary especially in the emotional bucket if if what I'm saying is true then that explains a lot uh of why the elite use English a lot more because the native Indian languages don't have e..."
In this segment, Sajith reflects on his background in media and how it informs his approach to venture capital. He shares insights on the importance of understanding incentives in startups and how his experiences have shaped his perspective on the entrepreneurial landscape in India.
"like you know they can't uh be Pickers there are few Founders who can be Pickers because they they they like second time Founders Etc it's changing but it's slow so this is one reason why VCS don't ha..."
Sajith Pai discusses his experience with Bennett, Coleman & Co., India's largest newspaper company, and the unique 'Bennett approach' to business. He highlights the importance of understanding incentives and how they can impact startup founders, emphasizing the need for a strategic lens in navigating the media landscape.
"company sort of like ganet in the US very well-run uh privately held uh very profitable and there was a well there's no word for it but there was a way of uh and the companies IND the name uh was Benn..."
In this segment, Sajith shares insights on the critical role of incentives in startups. He points out that many founders overlook how incentives can drive success and discusses strategies to align incentives with business goals, ensuring that team members are motivated to achieve long-term success.
"his chief of staff for a while and uh and it's sort of this Bennet approach or the Benet way or the times way was something that I kind of brought in in addition at I me working for about two decades ..."
Sajith emphasizes the importance of strategic thinking for startup founders who may not have formal business training. He discusses how a strategic lens can help founders navigate challenges and make informed decisions, ultimately leading to better outcomes for their businesses.
"like you know when when the customers like on board it and like you know it's it's it's a working partnership so so I think incentives was another kind of uh area where I was able to kind of really he..."
Sajith reflects on the dynamic between him and startup founders, noting that pushback is a natural part of the process. He appreciates the challenges of starting a business in India and respects the founders' autonomy while providing guidance and insights to help them succeed.
"listening to you it sounds like helping them understand GE these things over here really really matter and and you need to think about them more um I are are you finding that there's push back on that..."
In this segment, Sajith introduces the concept of India as a 'digital welfare state.' He explains how India's digital public infrastructure, including identity systems and payment solutions, has transformed the way the government provides subsidies and services to its citizens, particularly the economically disadvantaged.
"uh you know and I'm the person on the stands uh but yeah I got to be a mirror for the founder I got to kind of show his or her face ws and all so that they're able to kind of take the corrective missi..."
Sajith elaborates on the innovations in India's digital public infrastructure, such as the Aadhaar system for identity and UPI for seamless payments. He discusses how these advancements have facilitated economic inclusion and improved access to services for millions of Indians.
"most frictionless payment system called UPI where I can send money like a message uh there were about 15 million transactions that happened last month on UPI like it's crazy right yeah 15 billion tran..."
Sajith highlights the emerging opportunities in India's digital economy, driven by innovations like UPI autopay. He shares examples of startups leveraging these advancements to create new business models and enhance customer experiences, showcasing the potential for growth in the coming years.
"the V uh and and that is why it call India digital welfare state and you also refer to it sounds like you've mentioned a lot of uh things that in what you've call called Tony Wang Trifecta um and and ..."
In this segment, Sajith provides case studies of successful startups in India that have utilized digital public infrastructure to thrive. He discusses companies like ShareChat and their monetization strategies, illustrating how digital payments have transformed their business models.
"uh publication that we do uh which is what kind of very well-known you uh it's called the indust valy report uh and it's online uh you can access it so the indust value report the latest one which we ..."
Sajith discusses innovative business models emerging in India, such as Nayri, which operates on an open-source protocol for logistics. He explains how these models differ from traditional approaches, emphasizing the role of digital infrastructure in enabling new ways of doing business.
"there were a lot of Indian interesting I give you two examples there was a company called share chat in India and share chats uh think of it as Twitter or Instagram but in non- English languages so th..."
Sajith explores the evolving landscape of credit in India, highlighting how digital public goods are improving access to credit for underserved populations. He discusses the challenges of traditional credit systems and how new technologies are paving the way for greater financial inclusion.
"as indan Kuba but the difference as follows uh nayri is built on a open- source protocol called the Beck protocol and the beckan protocol is created so that companies like nayri and others could lever..."
In this concluding segment, Sajith compares India's digital transformation to the U.S. infrastructure, discussing how India's late adoption of technology has led to unique opportunities for innovation. He reflects on the potential for growth and the lessons that can be learned from India's journey.
"to ask him to mortgage his house or anything like that and historically the challenge has been that India is under penetrator credit because a lot of credit in India uh is given only on the back of as..."
In this segment, Sajith elaborates on India's transition from wired internet to mobile technology. He shares personal anecdotes about the challenges of obtaining a landline in the past and how mobile phones have revolutionized communication in India, allowing for greater accessibility despite limited wired infrastructure.
"are C another few examples that you would think that would fall into this line that it doesn't get develop excuse me it doesn't get developed in the US because you know we already have that infrastruc..."
Sajith highlights the shift from unorganized to organized markets in India, emphasizing the rise of B2B marketplaces. He discusses how mobile technology facilitates transactions across regions, enabling businesses to operate more efficiently and connect with a broader audience.
"WiFi uh uh like what my my the conversation is on Wi-Fi but a lot of Indians don't use Wi-Fi they use mobile internet because Wi-Fi means your house has to have good power regul power and uh and if yo..."
This segment focuses on unique Indian startups that cater to local consumer psychology and cultural nuances. Sajith shares examples of innovative apps like Friendif, which adapts dating to Indian social norms, and Jar, which allows users to save and invest in digital gold, showcasing the creativity within India's startup ecosystem.
"uh one trend line uh that is happening in India is a move from unorganized to organized so uh there are ways of doing business which is on paper which is on trust within a small community uh on high i..."
Sajith discusses the success of platforms like Stage, which provide vernacular content tailored to Indian audiences. He emphasizes the importance of catering to diverse linguistic and cultural backgrounds in India, highlighting the vast opportunities for innovation in this space.
"and get comfortable with each other when the chaon is there and then if you want to DM directly and you want to pay up something right and and sort of stuff like that there's an interesting app string..."
In a thought-provoking conclusion, Sajith shares his vision for a kinder world where people understand each other's challenges. He proposes the idea of reducing religious divisiveness, advocating for a more empathetic approach to human interactions, and emphasizing the importance of intent over actions.
"time uh for India um and I think uh I I'm fascinated by the differences but also by just the hu just like the opportunities you just mentioned I I those are very exciting to me because they're very un..."