"Today I have the pleasure of  interviewing Ilya Sutskever,   who is the Co-founder and Chief Scientist of  OpenAI. Ilya, welcome to The Lunar Society.   Thank you, happy to be here. First question a..."

"Got it. What's the explanation for why  there aren't more illicit uses of GPT?   Why aren't more foreign governments using it  to spread propaganda or scam grandmothers?   Maybe they haven't really go..."

"Would you be able to track  it if it was happening?   I think large-scale tracking is possible, yes. It  requires special operations but it's possible.   Now there's some window in which AI is  very..."

"from now till AGI pretty much. Okay. Because I'm curious if there's   a startup that's using your model, at some point  if you have AGI there's only one business in the   world, it's OpenAI. How mu..."

"Okay, so let's take the counterfactual where it  is a small percentage. Let's say it's 2030 and not   that much economic value has been created by these  LLMs. As unlikely as you think this might be, ..."

"to say precisely what the next paradigm will  be but it will probably involve integration of   all the different ideas that came in the past. Is there some specific one you're referring to?   It's h..."

"This hypothetical, imaginary person with far  greater mental ability than the rest of us.   When we're doing reinforcement learning on  these models, how long before most of the   data for the reinfor..."

"which teaches the next machine. I've had a chance to play around   these models and they seem bad at multi-step  reasoning. While they have been getting better,   what does it take to really surpass..."

"go. But at some point the data will run out. What is the most valuable source of data? Is it   Reddit, Twitter, books? Where would you train  many other tokens of other varieties for?   Generally sp..."

"seems like a very fruitful direction. If you're comfortable talking about this,   where is the place where we  haven't scraped the tokens yet?   Obviously I can't answer that question  for us but I'..."

"I think one could make progress in  robotics today, with enough motivation.   What ideas are you excited to try but you can't  because they don't work well on current hardware?   I don't think current..."

"Alright, so let's say it's something  that's almost AGI. Where is AGI?   Depends on what your AGI can do. Keep  in mind that AGI is an ambiguous term.   Your average college undergrad is an AGI, righ..."

"And you also want to be in a world where  your degree of alignment keeps increasing   faster than the capability of the models. Do you think that the approaches we’ve taken   to understand the model..."

"Today when you use Copilot, how do you divide  it up? So I expect at some point you ask your   descendant of ChatGPT, you say — Hey,  I'm thinking about this and this. Can   you suggest fruitful ideas..."

"So rather than say that there is a prize  committee that decides right away, you wait   for five years and then award it retroactively. But there's no concrete thing we can identify   as you solve t..."

"sensible extrapolations of anything. Maybe that  would be one answer. You need to have data,   you can’t come up with those things out of  thin air because otherwise, your error bars   are going to be..."

"What are you personally doing after AGI comes? The question of what I'll be doing or what people   will be doing after AGI comes is a very tricky  question. Where will people find meaning? But   I t..."

"Are you going to become part AI? It is very tempting.   Do you think there'll be physically  embodied humans in the year 3000?   3000? How do I know what’s gonna happen in 3000? Like what does i..."

"morally and progress forward on their own, with  the AGI providing more like a base safety net.   How much time do you spend thinking about these  kinds of things versus just doing the research?   I d..."

"Well, no in 2015, I did have all these best with  people in 2016, maybe 2017, that things will go   really far. But specifics. So it's like, it's  both, it's both the case that it surprised me   and I..."

"and you have a lot of memory and there is a  bottleneck between those two. And the problem   that both the TPU and the GPU are trying to  solve is that the amount of time it takes you   to move one fl..."

"part is where the real action takes place. Does that describe your entire career? If you   think back on something like ImageNet, was that  more new idea or was that more understanding?   Well, that..."

"and we’re super happy with it. How vulnerable is the whole AI   ecosystem to something that might happen in  Taiwan? So let's say there's a tsunami in Taiwan   or something, what happens to AI in ge..."

"is. If it is more useful than it is  expensive then it is not prohibitive.  To give you an analogy, suppose you want  to talk to a lawyer. You have some case   or need some advice or something, you're..."

"and more reliable, more trustworthy, so you  can trust their answers. All those things.   Yeah. But let's say it's 2025 and somebody  is offering the model from 2024 at cost.   And it's still pretty g..."

"behavior, where there is a lot of convergence  on the near term work, there's going to be some   divergence on the longer term work. But then  once the longer term work starts to fruit,   there will b..."

"Yeah. We talked about this a little bit at  the beginning. But as foreign governments   learn about how capable these models are,  are you worried about spies or some sort of   attack to get your weig..."

"What will happen in this parameter count,  what will happen in that parameter count?   I think it's possible to make some predictions  about specific capabilities though it's definitely   not simple a..."

"force behind the fact that the data exists, that  the GPUs exist, and that the transformers exist?   The data exists because computers became  better and cheaper, we've got smaller and   smaller trans..."

"one. You don't need to optimize your code as  much. When the ImageNet data set came out,   it was huge and it was very, very difficult  to use. Now imagine you wait for a few years,   and it becomes v..."

"very meaningful contributions. Other than that, do you think academia   will come up with important insights  about actual capabilities or is that   going to be just the companies at this point? ..."

"I don't think that there is a clean distinction  between the world of bits and the world of atoms.   Suppose the neural net tells you — hey here's  something that you should do, and it's going   to im..."

"obvious that such and such a thing can work. The reason the Transformer has been brought   up as a specific advance is because it's the  kind of thing that was not obvious for almost   anyone. So peop..."

"What is your opinion of your former  advisor’s new forward forward algorithm?   I think that it's an attempt to train a  neural network without backpropagation.   And that this is especially interesti..."

"It's the only algorithm. I guess I've heard you   in different contexts talk about using  humans as the existing example case that   AGI exists. At what point do you take the metaphor  less seriousl..."

"we just need to focus on  getting our own basics right.   One can and should be inspired  by human intelligence with care.   Final question. Why is there, in your case,  such a strong correlation betw..."