"the the big future AI in the the singularity looks back and says, "Hey, who gets the most credit for this genomics revolution that happened in the early 21st century?" That AI is going to find these p..."

"the the big future AI in the the singularity looks back and says, "Hey, who gets the most credit for this genomics revolution that happened in the early 21st century?" That AI is going to find these p..."

"That means a lot for me to hear hear you say because I'm a big fan of your podcast. My first question is, what advice did Richard Fineman give you about picking up girls? Wow. Um, so one day in the sp..."

"That means a lot for me to hear hear you say because I'm a big fan of your podcast. My first question is, what advice did Richard Fineman give you about picking up girls? Wow. Um, so one day in the sp..."

"understand it. And that was the era, this was the 80s, so that was an era when Gold's gym was like becoming a world national franchise. And so there were gyms all over the place, 24-hour fitness and s..."

"was much bigger than him obviously. He was like, "Wow, you're a big guy, Steve. Uh I got to ask you something." And Fman was born in like 1918. So he he's not really like from the modern era. Like he ..."

"So, uh, you know, and he he gives a little more some colorful details and stuff. Uh, but the point is he's like, you should not care what they think of you. You're you're trying to do your thing. And,..."

"you know, he's a kind of an expert on. Yeah. And he says to me, he goes, he goes, um, one of the things he says to me, he says like, I don't know how much girls really like guys that are as big as you..."

"matter So just do your best. Yeah, that's interesting because I wonder when he when I mean in the 40s when he was at that age, was he doing this? I don't know what the cultural conventions were at the..."

"said other things which were pretty standard like you know be funny you're a funny guy you know girls like that be confident you know just basic stuff. But the main thing I remember was the oper opera..."

"you a funny story because I was one of the reasons Fineman found this so weird was because the way bodybuilding entered the United States or became widespread was a very interesting story because at f..."

"yourself out of that right but by by the way when uh for context for the audience when fine men you were a big guy like you you were a football player at Caltech right and then there's a picture of yo..."

"That was like considered advanced knowledge at that time. And so I remember once I had an injury and I was in the trainer's room at the Caltech athletic facility and the lady was looking, it was a fem..."

"in the trainer's room at the Caltech athletic facility and the lady was looking, it was a female trainer and she was looking at my quadriceps and because I had pulled a muscle and she was looking at t..."

"there's like a lot of sculptures in the ancient world where I mean not that ancient but like the people look like they have well-developed musculature. So the Greeks were very special because they wer..."

"the science that I described is well we can now genotype those embryos from a small biopsy and I can tell you things about the embryos. I could tell you hey number four is an outlier for breast cancer..."

"the science that I described is well we can now genotype those embryos from a small biopsy and I can tell you things about the embryos. I could tell you hey number four is an outlier for breast cancer..."

"individual snips or polymorphisms, those are individual locations in the genome where I might differ from you and you might differ from another person. And typically, if you just take pairs of individ..."

"individual snips or polymorphisms, those are individual locations in the genome where I might differ from you and you might differ from another person. And typically, if you just take pairs of individ..."

"that's a typical attitude among theoretical physicists. So the the thing that I had to confront about 10 years ago was I knew the rate at which sequencing costs were going down. So I could anticipate ..."

"that I had to confront about 10 years ago was I knew the rate at which sequencing costs were going down. So I could anticipate we would get to the day today when there are millions of genomes with phe..."

"algorithms that algorithms there are theorems there they're actually performance guarantees that tell you they give you a bound on how much data you need to capture almost all of the variation in the ..."

"some of these technical details are really just not understood even by practitioners in computational genomics who are not quite that mathematical. They don't understand actually these results that in..."

"called compressed sensing which is a penalized form of highdimensional regression which tries to build sparse predictors. Uh machine learning people might know it as L1 penalized uh optimization. And ..."

"some of these technical details are really just not understood even by practitioners in computational genomics who are not quite that mathematical. They don't understand actually these results that in..."

"all the training and your the dust settles the models are very simple. They have an additive uh structure. So it's basically like I either assign a nonzero weight to this particular region in the geno..."

"you end up doing is this super highdimensional optimization where you you you only activate you grudgingly activate a snip when the signal is strong enough and you once you activate that one the algor..."

"simple especially in an era where we have all this uh machine learning and but it seemed like they were getting good predictive results out of that. So what is the delta between how good you can go wi..."

"different variants close by that have roughly the same statistical significance if you just do some simple regression math but then you don't know which one of those 10 to use and you might be overoun..."

"So, okay. So, the first issue which is how why you know why is this why is this genetic architecture so simple surprisingly simple and again 10 years ago we didn't know it was going to be simple. So w..."

"things. One is you have this really interesting evolutionary argument about why that would be the case. You might want to explain. And the second is it makes you wonder um if it's just if just becomin..."

"So it was well known for you know at least among a tiny population of theoretical population bi biologists that that additive variance was the dominant way that uh populations would respond to selecti..."

"in the last 10,000 years. Like for a while we didn't have agriculture. Now we have agriculture. Now we have swipe left if you want to have sex tonight. You know, we the the environment didn't stay fix..."

"say like it's the bigger uh rats that out compete the smaller rats. At what rate does the rat population then start getting bigger? He showed that it's dominated by the additive variance that that dom..."

"five ten years of work in this area. Now um you were asking about why evolution hasn't like completely quote optimized all traits in humans already. Now, I don't know if you ever do deep learning or v..."

"to make the analogy and I'm curious if this is valid, but when you're programming, one thing that's good practice is to have all the implementation details in separate function calls or separate progr..."

"on in uh the genome. So when we looked at we were the first group to I think we had at for like initially like say 20 major disease conditions we had decent predictors for and we just started looking ..."

"brain would be like this this big or something. So you can't reason that naively about uh stuff like that. I see. Yeah. Okay. So I guess it could make sense for example with certain health risk like t..."

"interesting because I remember reading in the selfish gene that like he hypothesizes um the reason we have aging or one of the possible reasons we have aging is that um there's antagonistic philosophy..."

"on in uh the genome. So when we looked at we were the first group to I think we had at for like initially like say 20 major disease conditions we had decent predictors for and we just started looking ..."

"interesting because I remember reading in the selfish gene that like he hypothesizes um the reason we have aging or one of the possible reasons we have aging is that um there's antagonistic philosophy..."

"early population geneticists who bre who breed corn who breed uh animals they know this. This is actually something they explicitly know about because they've done calculations. Now interestingly the ..."

"Yeah, I see. Um and uh and then yeah so you had this paper I think um it was polygenic health index general health and disease risk and then you showed that with 10 embryos you could increase uh disab..."

"will be the plateau for a trait like uh you know how long you live? Well is because four is I guess with the current data and techniques you think it could be significantly greater than that or well w..."

"early population geneticists who bre who breed corn who breed uh animals they know this. This is actually something they explicitly know about because they've done calculations. Now interestingly the ..."

"you want a a chicken that grows to be this big instead of this big, you can do it. If you want a cow that produces literally 10 times or 100 times more milk uh than a regular cow, you can do it. The e..."

"Like, no, we we're mapping this space out now. pretty confident in 10 years or so the crisper gene editing technologies will be ready for massively multipplexed edits and we're going to start navigati..."

"Chinese government in 50 years. Who knows? Yeah, that's interesting. I mean, if you think about like a company like Google, like it's theoretically it's possible you could come up with a better algori..."

"you want a a chicken that grows to be this big instead of this big, you can do it. If you want a cow that produces literally 10 times or 100 times more milk uh than a regular cow, you can do it. The e..."

"have to be us. I mean, we're not we don't do those we don't do the edgy stuff. We only do the health related stuff right now. But if you want to know how tall this embryo is going to be, I'll tell you..."

"stuff like that, but that this general idea of like who's going to be the best at predicting human traits from DNA, it's unclear who's going to be the winner in that race. Maybe it'll be the Chinese g..."

"So um so then you're gonna be able to say like, "Oh, look, here's a report. Look, let's embryo 4 is so cute. Why don't we, you know, before you get married?" We now we don't do that, but uh it's going..."

"regulate because it's just bits, right? So, you have the bits and you're in some repressive terrible country, you know, that doesn't allow you to select for some special traits that people are nervous..."

"they'll be wearing like a hazmat suit to make sure they don't like lose a hair. The new the next time Pelosi goes, she's going to be in like a space suit if she cares. Or or the other thing is they're..."

"those people live to be 300 years old naturally. I I don't think that's excluded at all. So, um I think that's within the realm of possibility, but you know, it's going to happen for a few lucky, you ..."

"I have your DNA and I predict each of those parameters in the face recognition algorithm and then from that I reconstruct the face. So, I say like this embryo when she's 16, this is what she's going t..."

"6'2 and they're actually 5'9. Probably the DNA could say that's unlikely actually. But but no, the the the application to what you were discussing is more like let's suppose that we're selecting on in..."

"take a few skin cells off of you and just genotype you. I know exactly who you are. Mhm. So, I've had conversations with these spooky intel folks about, you know, they're very interested in like, oh, ..."

"very favorable environment maybe the genes are a cap on what can be achieved and we can estimate you know we can uh predict that. Yeah. So in fact in our data actually we we have like I have data from..."

"naturally. I I don't think that's excluded at all. So, um I think that's within the realm of possibility, but you know, it's going to happen for a few lucky, you know, Elon Musk like people before it ..."

"senior people at the company that owns all the dating apps. So, you can look up, you can figure out what company this is, but they own Tinder and Match and stuff like this. And they're kind of interes..."

"think, you know, it'll probably be solved in 5 years. Um, the first really big bio banks that are non-European are coming online and so we're I think we're going to solve it, you know, in some number ..."

"actually. But but no, the the the application to what you were discussing is more like let's suppose that we're selecting on intelligence or something and let's suppose that the regions where your gir..."

"they don't they don't really understand it very well. Oh, that's good to hear because I that's um yeah, in a lot of other spaces you see this pattern that by the time that somebody might want to regul..."

"idea that like the height is supposed to be super heritable? Another great observation. So the correct the real correct scientific statement is we can predict height uh for people who are born who wil..."

"fun times. There's no doubt about it. Yeah. I I guess one way it could go is some countries decide to ban it all together, and another way it could go is countries decide to give everybody free access..."

"you know I don't want to credit the person but somebody made an interesting comment um they they wouldn't want their name associated with this maybe but somebody made an interesting comment about this..."

"hypothesis. But even so, the tagging quality falls off. So my group, you know, we spend a lot of our time looking at performance of predictor trained in population A on distant population B and doing ..."

"but most of them actually don't really follow it at this the technical level that you and I are disc are discussing it. So, they're just like kind of instinctively negative about it, but they don't th..."

"among the literal communists, you know. So um so let's talk about one of the traits that people might be interested in potentially selecting for which is um intelligence. um do do we what is the poten..."

"reasons for medical researchers to want to know the cognitive ability of people in their studies. uh for example when you want to study aging or decline of cognitive function memory in older people it..."

"fun times. There's no doubt about it. Yeah. I I guess one way it could go is some countries decide to ban it all together, and another way it could go is countries decide to give everybody free access..."

"consider left at the time tends to be winning, but what is left changes a lot over time, right? So, if in the early 20th century, uh, prohibition was a left cause, right? It was a progressive cause an..."

"to gather this data and then once we have my prediction from this earlier math that I was talking about is that when you get to a quarter a million it could be 1 million it could be two million uh wel..."

"little bit too science fictiony because the leaders who run these countries are not transhumanist rationalist people who read, you know, your blog my blog posts on the internet. They are not they're n..."

"um do do we what is the potential that we'll be able to actually acquire the data to be able to um correlate the genotype with intelligence? Well, that that's the most personally frustrating aspect of..."

"measurement if I just take like the NFL has this thing called the Wonderlick, which every player that's being considered for the draft is asked to take this wonderlick. You can go back and look at the..."

"Israel is so progressive when it comes to genetic screening and IVF and things like this. Um, one thing people talk a lot about is schizophrenia. So they say like, "Oh, schizophrenia could be correlat..."

"need lots of AI ML and I'll do it and that's the answer which again most people don't really get this but it's true right yeah so I mean there's a thing where if two traits are correlated at the ends ..."

"um because it's only applicable or uh advantageously applicable to um their population. No, it's a great point. It you can easily imagine even in a small country like Singapore or Taiwan has enough da..."

"don't really understand these polygenic scores and they're very skeptical and they think, oh, we're we're capturing we're not really capturing the real stuff, etc. Well, you know what? I will just loo..."

"Israel is so progressive when it comes to genetic screening and IVF and things like this. Um, one thing people talk a lot about is schizophrenia. So they say like, "Oh, schizophrenia could be correlat..."

"That's super fascinating. And and again like people who criticize us have no idea how sophisticated the work is. They just don't they don't read our papers. If they try to read our papers, they can't ..."

"who is the strong I guess these aren't necessarily correlated but like the person who has like the highest mathematical ability will not be the person who has the highest verbal ability even though th..."

"when I read your papers, I have a much easier time like the pros part and the explanation in the organization is uh I don't know if it's your physics background or whatever, but I noticed with Scott E..."

"when I read your papers, I have a much easier time like the pros part and the explanation in the organization is uh I don't know if it's your physics background or whatever, but I noticed with Scott E..."

"really detailed uh post about embryo selection and um he he he writes in it uh my belief is that the total uptake will be fairly modest as a fraction of the population and he's talking about embryo se..."

"really detailed uh post about embryo selection and um he he he writes in it uh my belief is that the total uptake will be fairly modest as a fraction of the population and he's talking about embryo se..."

"that that that's for the venture guys, okay? You you you know how to get in touch with me. Um from the oh I'm really worried about human evolution or when are we going to get another vonoyman? That's ..."

"right? One out of 10 families in all developed countries maybe including China. Um you have the genome of mom and dad and the kid and uh maybe you can sell them some health services later on. Maybe yo..."

"investors. Yeah. Something tells me that that won't not be satisfying enough to the people who are concerned about I have a sense that this whole argument about like uh the oh we're not going to have ..."

"not be satisfying enough to the people who are concerned about I have a sense that this whole argument about like uh the oh we're not going to have the evolutionary diversity or whatever that's just a..."

"through AWS server, right? So, I'm not sure what he means by that. Like, like I mean, Goran, I I admire him a lot, but what what does he mean by that? It's not very many people are going to adopt it. ..."

"Like, like I mean, Goran, I I admire him a lot, but what what does he mean by that? It's not very many people are going to adopt it. Does he mean like the percentage adoption within IVF families or th..."

"have different perspectives. Yeah. By the way, GR is such an interesting character. Um I've been reading from him for a long time, but obviously like his his persona is very mysterious. Um, I don't kn..."

"the way, GR is such an interesting character. Um I've been reading from him for a long time, but obviously like his his persona is very mysterious. Um, I don't know if you have like something obviousl..."

"with those guys. So I think it's awesome that we live in this internet age that some totally anonymous dude can produce really good thinking about a wide variety of things and he's not wrong. Most of ..."

"that we live in this internet age that some totally anonymous dude can produce really good thinking about a wide variety of things and he's not wrong. Most of the stuff he writes about embryo selectio..."

"intellectual, you know, exchange. Even the this conversation that you and I are having is an example of that. Um the the thing I'm afraid is not going to happen just because science is so specialized ..."

"intellectual, you know, exchange. Even the this conversation that you and I are having is an example of that. Um the the thing I'm afraid is not going to happen just because science is so specialized ..."

"pluropotency to make the eggs. Um and so my guess would be to get it working in humans is not that hard. It's a matter of some years of just slaving away in the lab to get it working. And I know of st..."

"pluropotency to make the eggs. Um and so my guess would be to get it working in humans is not that hard. It's a matter of some years of just slaving away in the lab to get it working. And I know of st..."

"mean, eventually there's no technical barrier. Now I would say that on roughly the same time scale for the pleur potent production of eggs to get mature to be tested so that people are confident in it..."

"mean, eventually there's no technical barrier. Now I would say that on roughly the same time scale for the pleur potent production of eggs to get mature to be tested so that people are confident in it..."

"see. I'm hoping it's ready by the time I'm ready to have kids, which is still a while away. So, another possibility that Gwen discusses is iterated embryo selection where you just you can keep I'll le..."

"see. I'm hoping it's ready by the time I'm ready to have kids, which is still a while away. So, another possibility that Gwen discusses is iterated embryo selection where you just you can keep I'll le..."

"ultimate goal of what you want? I mean, just think about it. Yeah. Yeah. To steal I guess to steal I guess to steal manand them a little bit. Somebody might say, "Listen, one of the things that preven..."

"ultimate goal of what you want? I mean, just think about it. Yeah. Yeah. To steal I guess to steal I guess to steal manand them a little bit. Somebody might say, "Listen, one of the things that preven..."

"have to. Actually, maybe this might not be globally beneficial, but for at least this particular debate, it might be beneficial if the case was uh when I asked you like, oh, do people who are lower on..."

"have to. Actually, maybe this might not be globally beneficial, but for at least this particular debate, it might be beneficial if the case was uh when I asked you like, oh, do people who are lower on..."

"give more genomic prediction sources to people who who need them. It's easy. Uh, okay. So, in your uh just to shift topics quite a bit here. Um, in your you had an interesting post on that uh recent u..."

"give more genomic prediction sources to people who who need them. It's easy. Uh, okay. So, in your uh just to shift topics quite a bit here. Um, in your you had an interesting post on that uh recent u..."

"it. I think that's one of the most fascinating things about this field of psychometrics and psychology is that you know really trying to get get into that. Um, one of the things that fascinated me whe..."

"know really trying to get get into that. Um, one of the things that fascinated me when I was being educated and going through training as like uh in theoretical physics and math is like looking at how..."

"look. So in the real economy of atoms and grams of steel, kilograms of steel, which has all moved to China now or something, that all this stuff is super important. Like you can't just like theorize a..."

"look. So in the real economy of atoms and grams of steel, kilograms of steel, which has all moved to China now or something, that all this stuff is super important. Like you can't just like theorize a..."

"particular discipline, which do you think is the more pertinent skill? I was going to say people are going to do it different ways. Yeah, I do think that if you compare the category of engineers to th..."

"particular discipline, which do you think is the more pertinent skill? I was going to say people are going to do it different ways. Yeah, I do think that if you compare the category of engineers to th..."

"hire physics students. Uh the answer is a little bit complicated. I I think all the factors you mentioned are true. But uh one of the things was that uh in the early phase like in the 80s and 90s when..."

"hire physics students. Uh the answer is a little bit complicated. I I think all the factors you mentioned are true. But uh one of the things was that uh in the early phase like in the 80s and 90s when..."

"noisy like you're measuring muon cosmic rays coming through the roof and hitting your detector and then you have to analyze the data and when you're building this thing you you screw it up and so like..."

"noisy like you're measuring muon cosmic rays coming through the roof and hitting your detector and then you have to analyze the data and when you're building this thing you you screw it up and so like..."

"mentioned. Oh, no. Because actually that's that's really good to know because that that is very relevant to my question. I um my friend and I have this continual debate about the importance of intelli..."

"mentioned. Oh, no. Because actually that's that's really good to know because that that is very relevant to my question. I um my friend and I have this continual debate about the importance of intelli..."

"know I had another experience of this which was uh I I recently interviewed Sam Mcenfrieded who's the CEO of FTX on my podcast and one interesting like I for that interview and I guess generally for a..."

"know I had another experience of this which was uh I I recently interviewed Sam Mcenfrieded who's the CEO of FTX on my podcast and one interesting like I for that interview and I guess generally for a..."

"So, what's the difference in their lives? One, somehow maybe the guy went to Harvard because he kind of understands how the world works a little better than the other dude. Okay. Two, when he gets to ..."

"So, what's the difference in their lives? One, somehow maybe the guy went to Harvard because he kind of understands how the world works a little better than the other dude. Okay. Two, when he gets to ..."

"the explanation? Well the the easy answer to that question is many of the things or almost all the things you mentioned are lagging indicators. So, so they reflect the fact that the west was developed..."

"the explanation? Well the the easy answer to that question is many of the things or almost all the things you mentioned are lagging indicators. So, so they reflect the fact that the west was developed..."

"American kid to, you know, get the job he deserves, you know, at these elite levels where he's strongly impacted by immigration. Um, so, you know, you got winners and losers. Uh, whether there's a lon..."

"American kid to, you know, get the job he deserves, you know, at these elite levels where he's strongly impacted by immigration. Um, so, you know, you got winners and losers. Uh, whether there's a lon..."