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a16z Podcast | Capitalizing on an Autonomous Vehicle Future
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with Peter Ludwig, Qasar Younis (@qasar), and Sonal Chokshi (@smc90) When people talk about autonomous vehicles, we hear everything from "we're much closer than you think" to "we're much further than you think". So where are we, really, in the widespread reality of autonomous vehicles today? It depends, of course, on how you define autonomy -- which is where a handy recap and update of the SAE (Society of Automotive Engineers) levels of autonomy comes in. But still, given everything out there from self-driving shuttles to Teslas, it's really hard to tell just where we are and where the nuances of, say, Level 2-plus vs. Level 3 might come in. This episode of the a16z Podcast takes a quick pulse on where we are in the state of autonomy in 2019 when it comes to autonomous cars, shuttles, robots -- basically any "autonomous" and/or "self-driving" vehicle out there -- as well as the analogy of mobile for understanding the space: where it works, where it breaks down. But did even the mobile industry itself really have a clear iPhone "moment"? When did mobile devices that seemed so limited -- or seemed like just "toys" -- suddenly (or not so suddenly) go to an apps layer that we use every single day? How do we build "the rails" and "the trains" at the same time in this case? And perhaps most importantly, where will the spoils of this new wave of innovation go -- to Silicon Valley or Detroit? Or outside the U.S.? Who are the players? How do regulatory -- and quite frankly, nationalistic -- concerns come into play here? And finally, how does one balance the desire to embrace innovation in an open and fast, yet still very thoughtful and safe way? The answers, according to Applied Intuition co-founder and CEO Qasar Younis and CTO Peter Ludwig (in conversation with Sonal Chokshi), have to do with commodities and capitalism, with science and science fiction, with simulation and software as infrastructure, and more... And really, how we define autonomy now, and in the future.
Segments Timeline
State of Autonomy in 2019
In this segment, Sonal Chokshi introduces the podcast episode focused on the current state of autonomous vehicles in 2019. The discussion highlights the varying perceptions of autonomy, the importance of understanding SAE levels, and the intersection of Silicon Valley and Detroit in the context of autonomous vehicle development.
"hi everyone welcome to the A6 andz podcast I'm sonel today we're continuing our series on consumer Tech Trends with an episode that pulse checks the state of autonomy in 2019 where are we with autonom..."
The Mobile Analogy for Autonomy
Qasar Younis draws parallels between the evolution of mobile technology and the current state of autonomous vehicles. He discusses the hype cycles, the rapid changes in technology, and how the demand for autonomous vehicle engineers mirrors the early days of mobile development, emphasizing the potential for significant advancements in the next decade.
"through the hype on whether autonomous vehicles are coming soon or not it's interesting you can kind of read Publications and within a three-month period you'll hear we're in the early days the hype s..."
Capitalism and Innovation in Autonomy
In this segment, Qasar Younis elaborates on the role of capitalism in driving innovation within the autonomous vehicle industry. He discusses how advancements in technology and the commodification of components are creating a thriving ecosystem for autonomy, drawing comparisons to the smartphone revolution and the gradual acceptance of mobile technology.
"so far as it might even be a commodity and I think interesting that's kind of controversial I think there will be a lot of parallels as well uh on the hardware front as well as the software front look..."
Defining the 'iPhone Moment' for Autonomy
The conversation shifts to defining the 'iPhone moment' for autonomous vehicles. Qasar Younis explains that this moment is characterized by widespread public adoption and experience with autonomous technology, similar to how the iPhone transformed mobile technology. He emphasizes the importance of user experience in recognizing the potential of autonomy.
"even if you're sitting in 2012 I don't think anybody had the aha I can't believe it the mobile era has arrived exclamation mark and people when we talk about autonomy they almost want a declarative ev..."
Current Levels of Autonomy Explained
Peter Ludwig provides a breakdown of the SAE levels of autonomy, starting from Level 0 to Level 3. He explains the characteristics of each level, highlighting the differences between basic automation features and more advanced systems like Level 2 plus, which includes functionalities such as automatic lane changes and freeway interchanges.
"take the the iPhone the iPhone rests on hundreds of companies and thousands and thousands of Innovations and they're not just in you know the the screen no the entire store the payment processing all ..."
Challenges in Achieving Full Autonomy
The discussion continues with Peter Ludwig addressing the challenges faced in achieving full autonomy, particularly the complexities involved in reaching Level 3. He emphasizes the engineering efforts required to handle edge cases and the importance of ensuring safety in autonomous systems, which remains a significant hurdle in the industry.
"moment so so let's define the iPhone moment first you know I think it it was Steve Jobs who said you know the 60s really happened in the' 70s and the iPhone moment really happened in the like 2012 201..."
Diverse Applications of Autonomous Technology
Qasar Younis discusses the various applications of autonomous technology beyond just robo-taxis. He highlights the different waves of autonomy, including shuttles, self-driving trucks, and warehouse robots, and explains how each application requires specific engineering solutions tailored to its unique operational environment.
"that to your point in terms of defining what the iPhone moment is is not the moment it's actually the experience of the iPhone it's the applications the the iPhone phenomenon even so that's really wha..."
Understanding the Levels of Autonomy
In this segment, Peter Ludwig continues to explain the taxonomy of autonomy levels, detailing the characteristics of Level 2 and Level 2 plus systems. He clarifies the distinctions between these levels and the implications for manufacturers and consumers, emphasizing the ongoing evolution of autonomous vehicle technology.
"autonomy and can you quickly break down that taxonomy for our listeners sure so going through the levels just just one by one so level zero is where most production vehicles are today and this would b..."
The Confusion of Level 3 Autonomy
Ludwig discusses the complexities surrounding Level 3 autonomy, where the vehicle is expected to handle driving without constant human attention. He highlights the industry's hesitation to classify systems as Level 3 due to safety concerns and the blurred lines between Level 2 and Level 3 functionalities.
"level two plus exactly and uh and so major vendors for example Moto mobile ey they are now uh marketing their level two plus systems to to oems uh level three is sort of a a a bit of a dubious uh clas..."
Exploring Level 4 Autonomy
The conversation shifts to Level 4 autonomy, characterized by fully autonomous vehicles operating within specific geographic boundaries. Ludwig explains the concept of operational design domains (ODD) and how delivery robots and autonomous shuttles fit into this classification, emphasizing their ability to operate without human intervention.
"design domain and that's uh the the set of capabilities that the car has and so as long as the car is within the region of the world where uh it knows based on the the engineers who worked on the syst..."
The Future of Level 5 Autonomy
Ludwig outlines Level 5 autonomy as an aspirational goal where vehicles can operate in all conditions without human input. He notes that no current technology is close to achieving this level, emphasizing the significant challenges that remain in the industry.
"and then the very last level is level five which is more of an idea than than a reality it's the notion that there could be a vehicle that is is able to drive autonomously in in all conditions where a..."
The Mobile Analogy in Autonomy
The discussion draws parallels between the evolution of mobile technology and autonomous vehicles. Ludwig and Younis explore how the mobile industry had predictable applications, while autonomy may have clearer potential use cases, yet still faces unknown second-order effects that could reshape industries like real estate and insurance.
"interesting so you drew the analogy earlier about the mobile analogy but where does that apply and where does that fall apart because the one a couple of differences I I would argue here are one that ..."
The Inevitable Shift to Autonomy
Younis asserts the inevitability of autonomous vehicles becoming mainstream due to their advantages in cost, convenience, and safety. He compares the current skepticism around autonomy to past attitudes towards mobile technology, emphasizing that the transition will happen despite uncertainties about the timeline.
"our imagination only goes so far and there will without a doubt be autonomy applications which we're just not thinking of I agree and also in the Sci-Fi world I think was it William Gibson I can't rem..."
Ecosystem Players in Autonomy
The conversation shifts to the key players in the autonomous vehicle ecosystem. Younis outlines the roles of consumer-facing companies, service providers, and infrastructure companies, drawing analogies to the automotive industry and highlighting how the shift to autonomy will reshape existing business models.
"consumer facing companies who will have brands that interface with a consumer now whether those are r companies AV providers or continue to be the BMW or the Teslas uh I think that that's that's Up Fo..."
The Mundane Revolution of Autonomy
Younis and Ludwig discuss how the transition to autonomous vehicles will change everyday experiences, from mundane tasks to the overall design of vehicles. They emphasize that while the changes may seem subtle at first, the long-term impact will be significant, reshaping how we interact with technology and transportation.
"because this the change is pretty significant what we're talking about autonomy the human driver becoming a software product but you also have the internal combustion engine becoming an electric drive..."
Mundane Changes, Significant Impact
The speakers reflect on how seemingly mundane changes in vehicle technology, such as starting a car with a button instead of a key, signify a larger transformation in the automotive industry. They draw an analogy to personal self-improvement, suggesting that significant changes often occur at a gradual, everyday level.
"it's an example of what you're talking about which is like it changes everything things you don't even think about all these great revolutions are very mundane yes I like that concept actually because..."
The Role of Simulation in Modern Automotive Development
This segment delves into the evolution of simulation in the automotive industry, contrasting past methodologies with current practices. The speakers discuss how simulation is now used to develop software products rather than just hardware, highlighting the importance of integrating real-world data into the simulation process.
"most accurate term what's different about simulation in the past versus simulation today is simulation in the past was usually used to build Hardware products and we're using simulation to build a sof..."
Reality in the Loop: A Nonlinear Feedback System
The discussion continues on the concept of 'reality in the loop,' where real-world data continuously informs simulation processes. The speakers explain how this nonlinear feedback loop enhances the development of autonomous vehicles, making the process more dynamic and interconnected.
"software let's talk a little bit more about that yeah simulation is not new to Automotive or Aerospace these these these methodologies have existed for decades and and and and even longer than that uh..."
Building Infrastructure While Innovating
The speakers explore the dual challenge of building the necessary infrastructure for autonomous vehicles while simultaneously innovating the technology itself. They liken this to laying down train tracks while inventing the train, emphasizing the co-evolution of different components in the automotive ecosystem.
"because like for instance if you're managing large amounts of data is that really simulation technically it's not but you need to do that in order to make uh your simulations useful uh connecting to t..."
The Importance of Specialization in Autonomy
In this segment, the speakers discuss the importance of specialization within the autonomous vehicle industry. They debate whether companies should build everything in-house or leverage existing technologies, emphasizing the benefits of focusing on core competencies to drive innovation and efficiency.
"real life goal I had of comparing Sim my simulation company to uh well we're all fans of music so you know using your analogy of trains because you mentioned like the train tracks so this is interesti..."
Capitalism and Market Efficiency in Autonomy
The conversation shifts to the economic aspects of the autonomous vehicle industry, discussing how capitalism drives market efficiencies. The speakers highlight the role of collaboration among various players in the ecosystem, which leads to advanced products at lower costs.
"or is the path to buy things off the shelf where in this ecosystem where do you draw that line of what is critical for autonomy quote unquote and what is what is not and so you know my rough View and ..."
The Historical Parallel of Automotive Innovation
The speakers draw historical parallels between the current autonomous vehicle industry and the early automotive industry. They discuss the personalities and dynamics that shaped the automotive landscape a century ago, highlighting the similarities in competition and innovation.
"doesn't mean you can go ahead and you can definitely go and do that vertical company there will always be an apple in every ecosystem exactly but you know there's only you know you better be Steve Job..."
The Shift from Vertical Integration to Ecosystem Collaboration
This segment explores the shift from vertical integration in automotive manufacturing to a more collaborative ecosystem. The speakers discuss how modern companies are moving away from controlling every aspect of production to relying on a network of suppliers for efficiency.
"Who's Alfred P Sloan I don't even know who that is oh okay so the early Automotive Pioneers Oh I would have thought it was Henry Ford Sloan was so he's not technically the founder of General Motors bu..."
Defining the Circle of Competence in Autonomy
The speakers emphasize the importance of defining a narrow circle of competence in the autonomous vehicle industry. They argue that focusing on algorithms and core technologies is crucial for success, drawing comparisons to other industries that prioritize specialization.
"supplier ecos system well that's like capitalism to the tea I mean that's like the classic you don't you don't want to it's very who was it uh someone did an experiment where they tried making their o..."
Silicon Valley vs. Detroit: The Future of Autonomy
In this concluding segment, the speakers discuss the interplay between Silicon Valley and Detroit in the context of autonomous vehicles. They explore the potential for collaboration and competition between these two hubs of innovation, emphasizing the need for both to adapt and evolve in the rapidly changing landscape of the automotive industry.
"coveted Golden Nugget it takes confidence to focus narrow laser focus like that so you can go to like a a completely different industry go to a you know consumer cpg or you can go to Consulting if McK..."
Silicon Valley's Strengths and Weaknesses
This segment discusses the strengths and limitations of Silicon Valley in the hardware space. The speakers express concern about companies venturing too far outside their core competencies, particularly in hardware development. They draw parallels to other industries, emphasizing the importance of staying within one's expertise while pushing boundaries.
"so where Silicon Valley I think Strays is when we start doing things which Frankly Speaking are outside this very small circle of software and I get a little nervous when you know companies are doing ..."
Personal Connections to Detroit's Automotive Legacy
The speakers share their personal backgrounds growing up in the Detroit area and how it shaped their perspectives on the automotive industry. This segment highlights the deep-rooted connections individuals have to the automotive legacy of Detroit, providing a personal touch to the broader discussion on autonomy.
"you're pushing and trying new things in your area of competence right I can go and try to be an NBA basketball player but guess what uh it's probably not going to work no matter how much effort and an..."
The Future of Jobs in the Automotive Sector
In this segment, the speakers reflect on the changing job landscape in Michigan due to technological advancements in the automotive industry. They discuss the challenges faced by workers and the need for new job opportunities as the industry evolves, emphasizing the emotional impact of these changes on families and communities.
"had no idea you guys grew up in Detroit yeah of all the random coincidences not only we grew up in the same town we grew up in the same subdivision uh we're literally at the same Crossroads for people..."
Global Competition in the Autonomy Space
The conversation shifts to the global landscape of autonomous vehicle development, highlighting the competition between regions like Silicon Valley, Detroit, Japan, and China. The speakers discuss how different countries are positioning themselves in the race for autonomy and the implications for the automotive industry.
"jobs and guess what you my family included those jobs didn't come my dad never became a software engineer in his late 50s that doesn't happen and then also I think any business in The Human Experience..."
Wealth Concentration and Autonomy
This segment addresses the issue of wealth concentration resulting from advancements in technology and autonomy. The speakers explore how the benefits of innovation can be distributed more equitably and the potential risks of concentrating wealth in specific regions, particularly in the context of the automotive industry.
"there's a company that wins it for a town I think that's different I think we sometimes get that analog because of the internet where you have Google which is basically home home home team which is Mo..."
National Interests in Autonomous Vehicle Development
The discussion focuses on the nationalistic concerns surrounding the development of autonomous vehicles. The speakers highlight how governments are protective of their automotive industries and the implications for global competition. This segment emphasizes the intersection of technology, policy, and national interests.
"concentration you know that the next wave which is autonomy doesn't keep just kind of underlying that one of the other things that is not talked a lot about autonomy but should be talked about autonom..."
The Dual Nature of Capitalism
In this segment, the speakers discuss the dual nature of capitalism, particularly in relation to innovation and inequality. They argue that true capitalism should benefit all, and share personal anecdotes about their experiences with economic development and access to resources, highlighting the broader implications for society.
"what I love about what you're describing too though is it is true capitalism because I think capitalism gets a bad WAP for the inequality which is a fair complaint and a fair criticism but to me true ..."
Regulatory Challenges in Autonomy
The conversation turns to the regulatory challenges faced by the autonomous vehicle industry. The speakers discuss the balance between fostering innovation and ensuring public safety, highlighting the risks associated with regulatory arbitrage and the need for thoughtful policies that support the growth of the industry.
"LED lights and like little vases as candles that's freaking amazing exactly no I agree so on that I think I think I think where autonomy is is different is I think it has the potential and I think whe..."
State-Level Innovation and Autonomy
This segment explores how different states in the U.S. are approaching the regulation of autonomous vehicles. The speakers discuss the competitive nature of state regulations and how they can serve as laboratories for innovation, while also acknowledging the risks involved in being early adopters of new technologies.
"components and these components will come from everywhere one of my friends who's Indian who wish that that states themselves in India would have more of a control over their own laws because they bel..."
The Balance of Innovation and Safety
In the final segment, the speakers reflect on the importance of balancing innovation with safety in the development of autonomous vehicles. They discuss the potential consequences of rapid innovation without adequate oversight and the need for a regulatory framework that supports both progress and public safety.
"and I think um I think though probably what again doesn't get covered is I think that night there were also 10 other pedestrian accidents in America where people died you're right there is a statistic..."
Global Perspectives on Capitalism
This segment explores the varying shades of capitalism across different regions, particularly focusing on the U.S., China, and Europe. The speakers discuss how these differences impact the development and regulation of autonomous technologies, highlighting the need for a nuanced understanding of global economic dynamics.
"we're talking this this conversation has been very us-centric maybe 1980 capitalism was a very you know regional thing the real Revolution that's happened in the in the last you know 30 4 years is a c..."
The Role of Simulation in Development
The importance of simulation in the development of autonomous systems is emphasized here. The speakers discuss how advancements in simulation technology have become integral to the automotive and aerospace industries, allowing for safer and more efficient development processes.
"we're really Advocates of best practices for safe development and so that means really taking the the steps necessary to ensure that the systems and the software are safe before they actually go to th..."
Limits and Realities of Simulation
In this segment, the limitations of simulation are addressed, acknowledging that while simulations can be highly effective, they are never perfect. The speakers stress the importance of achieving a balance between simulated and real-world behaviors to ensure the reliability of autonomous systems.
"uh and so I think that's because the underlying kind of software industry has become so much more uh Advanced it's computationally more efficient you you can apply you have things like the the cloud R..."
Data Differentiation in Autonomy
The discussion focuses on the significance of data in the autonomous vehicle ecosystem. The speakers explore how companies differentiate themselves through data and the challenges of collaboration among various players in the industry, including mapping and sensor companies.
"with that said uh there will always be situations and scenarios where there are differences in Behavior between the simulated environment and the Real Environment right okay so what's also interesting..."
The Future of Autonomy and Commoditization
This segment speculates on the future of autonomous technology, discussing the potential for commoditization of algorithms and tools. The speakers draw parallels to the mobile app industry, envisioning a future where creating autonomous vehicles becomes as accessible as developing mobile applications.
"autonomy system there is some what we call light Network effects there between companies well I mean if you go to Stanford they teach classes that help you learn an's simulation tools there's literall..."
Democratization of Autonomy
The final segment wraps up the conversation by discussing the democratization of autonomy. The speakers reflect on how advancements in technology could lead to a future where building autonomous vehicles is easy and widespread, transforming the landscape of transportation and innovation.
"indust industry is still working on right it's actually kind of funny because the the conundrum here is that software is bits and it's it's abundant and therefore it's accessible to everybody but the ..."