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Josh Wolfe – Caution and Innovation at Lux Capital, Venture is Eating the Investment World 8 ...

Josh Wolfe – Caution and Innovation at Lux Capital, Venture is Eating the Investment World 8 ...

34 segments available

Josh Wolfe is the Co-Founder and Managing Partner of Lux Capital, a $4 billion venture capital firm that invests in solutions to the most vexing puzzles of our time. Josh described his background and Lux’s approach back in 2018 on the show and that conversation is replayed in the feed. This time around, we dive into Josh’s cautious perspective on the venture landscape and how it impacts Lux’s investment process. We then turn to updates on companies we last discussed and a handful of “directional arrows of progress,” including smell, deception and detection, the tech of science, infrastructure for the metaverse, crypto, elemental power, space, and Africa. Subscribe to the mailing list: https://capitalallocators.com/ Access Transcript with Premium Membership: https://capitalallocators.com/signup/ Subscribe on Apple Podcast: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/capital-allocators-inside-the-institutional/id1223764016 Follow Ted on Twitter: https://twitter.com/tseides Follow Ted on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/tedseides/ Original Publish Date: 2/21/2022

Segments Timeline

1
0:02 - 2:05
2:02 duration270 words

The Role of Trusted Partners

In the introduction, the importance of having trusted partners in the investment landscape is emphasized. Janice Henderson Investors and Third Bridge are highlighted as key players providing insights and transparency to institutional investors, showcasing the need for collaboration in a complex financial environment.

"[Music] today's show is sponsored by janice henderson investors in an environment where allocators face more questions than answers having a trusted partner is critical janice henderson investors is c..."

2
2:05 - 4:35
2:29 duration346 words

Venture Capital's Evolution

Ted Seides introduces Josh Wolfe, co-founder of Lux Capital, and discusses the evolution of venture capital. Wolfe reflects on the dramatic changes in the venture landscape since 2018, noting the influx of capital and the resulting high valuations. He warns of potential market corrections as the current excesses may not be sustainable.

"hello i'm ted cities and this is capital allocators this show is an open exploration of the people and process behind capital allocation through conversations with leaders in the money game we learn h..."

3
4:35 - 6:49
2:14 duration373 words

The Excess of Excesses

Josh Wolfe shares his perspective on the current venture capital landscape, describing it as an 'excess of excesses.' He discusses the rapid pace of capital formation, inflated valuations, and the inverse relationship between diligence and deal velocity. Wolfe predicts that the exceptional returns seen in recent years may slow down or reverse, leading to potential negative outcomes.

"brought to you by omni omni helps private capital investors track and analyze individual deals while providing comprehensive financial and legal insights across their portfolio it houses the largest d..."

4
6:49 - 9:31
2:42 duration565 words

Future Scenarios for Venture Capital

Wolfe engages in a thought experiment about the future of venture capital, considering both optimistic and pessimistic scenarios. He discusses the potential for continued innovation and capital inflow versus the risks of economic downturns and market corrections. Wolfe reflects on historical drawdowns and the psychological impact on investors.

"means that eventually the great things that we've seen over the past few years which are exceptional returns not just unrealized but realized and returned and distributed cash to lps is going to eithe..."

5
9:31 - 12:15
2:43 duration585 words

Bifurcation in the Venture Ecosystem

Wolfe predicts a bifurcation in the venture ecosystem, where some investors will adapt to changing conditions while others will continue outdated practices. He highlights the challenges faced by limited partners (LPs) in navigating a crowded market and the potential for a slowdown in capital deployment as competition increases.

"band-aid being pulled off with hairs being pulled for two years and so you could see that same sort of thing happening now when you look at like arc invest as one proxy of this or the russell 2000 i t..."

6
12:15 - 15:01
2:46 duration686 words

Investment Strategies Amidst High Prices

In the face of high valuations and abundant capital, Wolfe discusses Lux Capital's investment strategy. He emphasizes the importance of not competing solely on price and suggests that creating new companies can provide better control over pricing and value. Wolfe draws parallels between resource scarcity and the current investment climate, highlighting the need for strategic decision-making.

"they plan their budget for their allocation as a percentage of their total endowment or whatever they're investing, that, a, certain, amount, is going to go into vc and private equity or vcnp and alts..."

7
15:31 - 17:01
1:30 duration300 words

The Allure of Software vs. Hard Science

Josh Wolfe reflects on the differences between investing in software companies and hard science ventures. He acknowledges the rapid scalability and high margins of software businesses but points out the intense competition in that space. In contrast, he argues that hard science investments face fewer competitors and often yield more reliable outcomes, despite longer timelines for results. Wolfe discusses the trade-offs between potential high returns and the stability of investing in scientifically rigorous companies.

"nobel prize winner that figured out how to make a microscope that can see into cells in real time there's somebody that developed an engineered capability to launch things into space in a certain way ..."

8
17:01 - 18:50
1:48 duration428 words

Balancing Exploration and Exploitation

In this insightful segment, Josh Wolfe shares his approach to balancing exploration and exploitation in investment strategies. Drawing from his experiences at the Santa Fe Institute, he discusses the importance of finding discipline in decision-making amidst market fervor. Wolfe explains how his team navigates the complexities of public and private markets, emphasizing the need for thorough diligence and the identification of high-value opportunities in a competitive landscape.

"perception but it is necessarily because of the better technology the hard sciences are more complicated so you have fewer competitors that are actually trying to start these businesses fewer competit..."

9
18:50 - 20:59
2:09 duration523 words

Learning from Control Labs' Journey

Josh Wolfe recounts the story of Control Labs, a company that Lux Capital invested in, and the lessons learned from its eventual sale to Facebook. He reflects on the importance of understanding the financial motivations of founding teams and the need for interim liquidity to support their decisions. Wolfe shares a personal anecdote about the emotional dynamics involved in investment decisions and the impact of financial pressures on entrepreneurs.

"thing is finding people that are off exploring something that nobody else is paying any attention to yet and that itself is very rewarding but then you also need and this is the benefit it's interesti..."

10
20:59 - 26:00
5:01 duration1142 words

Variant Bio: A Mission-Driven Approach

In this segment, Josh Wolfe discusses Variant Bio, a company focused on leveraging genetic research to develop innovative treatments. He highlights the unique team dynamics and mission-driven culture that set Variant apart. Wolfe shares insights into their partnerships and the exciting progress they are making in the field of liver disease, emphasizing the importance of having a well-capitalized and dedicated team to drive impactful scientific advancements.

"cursory at best it is like showing up for the finals exam if you're in college or you know your kids and just winging it people are just winging it on judgment and i think that they're looking at it a..."

11
26:02 - 27:43
1:41 duration409 words

Investing in Scent Technology

Wolfe explains how he approaches investing in scent technology, emphasizing the importance of broadcasting ideas to attract innovators. He discusses his collaboration with Nobel Prize winner Richard Axel and the iterative process of identifying and validating potential scientists and technologies in the field.

"mentioned directional arrows of progress it's always fun to talk to you about what your favorite ones are today well there's near-term and long-term ones one that i've talked about a little bit is sme..."

12
27:43 - 29:39
1:56 duration492 words

The Race Between Deception and Detection

Wolfe delves into the timeless struggle between deception and detection across various domains, from nature to geopolitics. He highlights the implications of this race in military and technological contexts, particularly regarding the influence of China and the evolving landscape of global power dynamics.

"points to the ability to capture and eventually replay scent for all kinds of things so in that process when it makes a ton of sense right all the other senses are captured on the phone how do you go ..."

13
29:39 - 32:28
2:48 duration562 words

Technological Competition Across Domains

Wolfe outlines the technological advancements in military and civilian sectors, discussing innovations in space, air, land, and sea. He emphasizes the importance of investing in technologies that provide strategic advantages, including satellite capabilities, drones, and autonomous systems.

"internal conviction and we write a check how about other directional arrows oh there's so many one that is near term and i feel very strongly about and this directional iro has less to do with a techn..."

14
32:28 - 34:55
2:27 duration495 words

The Quest for Scientific Prestige

Wolfe discusses the significance of scientific prestige and the tools necessary for groundbreaking discoveries. He highlights Lux Capital's investments in cutting-edge technologies that enhance scientific research productivity, including advanced microscopes and software solutions for biotech and pharma.

"will get new applications that will suck up that bandwidth in the air domain you have a thrust now an increasing concern whether you accept the dods at face value that hypersonics were either a total ..."

15
34:55 - 37:51
2:56 duration692 words

The Metaverse: A Double-Edged Sword

Wolfe shares his perspective on the metaverse, acknowledging its potential while expressing skepticism about its long-term impact. He contrasts virtual reality with augmented reality, emphasizing the importance of human connection and the infrastructure needed to support emerging digital experiences.

"compounding value investor types to them so those are some areas that we're very bullish on so when you step away from all of the earthly and to some extent space places there's this big buzz about ev..."

16
38:13 - 39:44
1:30 duration331 words

Infrastructure for the Metaverse

Wolfe delves into the infrastructure needs of the metaverse, likening companies like Subspace to Akamai for Web 3. He discusses the complexities of maintaining low latency across different internet speeds globally, especially in gaming contexts. This segment emphasizes the mathematical challenges involved in real-time protocols and their relevance to both gaming and cryptocurrency technologies.

"mathematically what's interesting about that is the same math that is doing real-time protocols to render graphics for you or me if we're in two different locations with two different internet speeds ..."

17
39:44 - 41:02
1:18 duration324 words

The Dual Cultures of Crypto

Josh Wolfe explores the fascinating intersection of two distinct cultures within the cryptocurrency space: the technical innovators and the more free-spirited enthusiasts. He reflects on how these groups have converged to address fundamental questions about the financial system, highlighting the blend of mathematical rigor and creative exploration that characterizes the crypto landscape.

"for math and science are actually saying there's, got, to be, a, better, way, to, do this like this is really like settlement on securities or borrowing or the treasury market like there's got to be a..."

18
41:02 - 42:25
1:23 duration318 words

NFTs: A New Perspective

In this thought-provoking segment, Wolfe shares his evolving views on NFTs, drawing an analogy between GPS technology and the concept of digital ownership. He argues that NFTs represent unique digital artifacts, much like how GPS triangulates location. This perspective shifts the focus from speculative assets to the underlying technology's potential utility.

"today it's depending on the market crashes two and a half to three trillion dollars predominantly bitcoin then ethereum then a long tail of solana and other stuff the other thing that i've changed my ..."

19
42:25 - 43:58
1:33 duration284 words

The Role of Belief in Technological Adoption

Wolfe discusses the critical role of public perception and belief in the success of emerging technologies, contrasting it with scientific truths that exist independently of belief. He emphasizes how societal acceptance can accelerate the adoption of innovations, using examples from nuclear energy and space manufacturing to illustrate his points.

"so that is to me how all this comes together the druggy freaks on the far end the hardcore math science nerds on the other end and actually coming up with the protocols in between i'm curious how you ..."

20
43:58 - 45:36
1:37 duration313 words

Rebranding Nuclear Power as Elemental Power

In this segment, Wolfe advocates for a rebranding of nuclear energy as 'elemental power,' highlighting its potential as a clean energy source. He discusses the historical resistance to nuclear power and the need for a cultural shift to embrace it as a viable solution for sustainable energy, emphasizing the importance of public support and perception.

"closer to the present and it's a very weird thing because it depends upon the belief of other people to decide that they're going to vote with their dollars and create the incentive for other people a..."

21
45:36 - 49:03
3:27 duration736 words

The Future of Space Manufacturing

Wolfe shares insights into the potential of space manufacturing, discussing how advancements in launch costs can create new markets for valuable products made in space. He recounts the journey of launching a manufacturing operation in low Earth orbit, emphasizing the role of belief and determination in bringing innovative ideas to fruition.

"lot of popular public resistance is because of neil young and joni mitchell and three mile island and china syndrome you had a movie in 1979 that coincided with the three-mile island which was a nucle..."

22
49:09 - 50:04
0:55 duration206 words

Building a Reputation: Attracting the Right People

In this segment, Josh Wolfe discusses the importance of building a personal brand and reputation that attracts intellectually curious and ambitious individuals. He shares his experiences with the Santa Fe Institute and the value of surrounding himself with brilliant minds, emphasizing how shared values and intellectual humility foster productive collaborations.

"understanding of this like with elemental power i'd love to twist that and just chat a little bit about how you've evolved in your thinking of your own presence on social media and the impact that's h..."

23
50:04 - 51:02
0:57 duration236 words

Speaking Truth to Power

Wolfe elaborates on his approach to speaking candidly about industry leaders and companies, including his critiques of major figures like Elon Musk and Ray Dalio. He explains how this honesty attracts like-minded peers and fosters a culture of critical thinking and debate, which he values in his professional relationships.

"the presence of so for me entrepreneurially those are the same people that i want to be with when you look at somebody like cassar eunice who runs our company applied intuition or you look at riordan ..."

24
51:02 - 52:23
1:21 duration297 words

The Marketplace of Ideas on Twitter

Josh Wolfe shares his thoughts on the dynamic nature of Twitter as a platform for intellectual exchange. He discusses how he engages with followers, debates ideas, and values the feedback he receives, believing that progress emerges from the competition of ideas in this digital marketplace.

"can't stand you like why are you so jealous of this person or why do you criticize him such a bad look for you so you get that mix but i've decided that the people that i enjoy being around are very i..."

25
52:23 - 53:38
1:15 duration281 words

Balancing Skepticism and Optimism

In this segment, Wolfe reflects on the balance between skepticism and optimism within his investment partnership. He discusses the importance of questioning assumptions and being prepared for potential downturns, while also recognizing the current positive trends in the investment landscape.

"and better ideas emerge how do you not go down the wormhole of spending 25 hours a day doing that i think i'm pretty efficient with it my own information diet i wake up at seven i'm with our kids unti..."

26
53:38 - 55:00
1:21 duration307 words

Heightened Expectations in Venture Capital

Wolfe addresses the increasing pressures and expectations in venture capital as Lux Capital manages more capital and seeks larger returns. He emphasizes the need for thoughtful investment decisions and the importance of recognizing the long-term implications of today's choices.

"really interesting signals i'm curious to just catch up on what's evolved in lux over the last couple of years sort of talked at the beginning about what's happening the excess of capital i know you r..."

27
55:00 - 56:30
1:30 duration311 words

The Importance of Historical Context

Josh Wolfe discusses the significance of remembering past challenges in the investment landscape. He warns against complacency during periods of good news and stresses the need for vigilance and preparedness for future downturns, drawing on lessons from previous market cycles.

"outcomes and so the pressure is higher than it ever was you have partners that are all very busy we're all on multiple boards you're trying to constantly triage and this is against a backdrop where i ..."

28
56:30 - 57:55
1:25 duration355 words

The Role of Skepticism in Partnerships

Wolfe explains how his skeptical nature is perceived within the partnership and how it influences discussions about potential investments. He highlights the importance of addressing risks and ensuring that entrepreneurs are prepared to defend their ideas against critical scrutiny.

"decision making on the small companies and the new companies that we're doing which are basically the things that are going to matter in four or five years and just us always remember that the things ..."

29
57:55 - 1:01:03
3:08 duration657 words

Investing in Africa: A New Opportunity

In this segment, Wolfe shares his insights on the emerging investment opportunities in Africa. He discusses the confluence of factors making the continent attractive for investment, including the return of educated individuals from abroad and the potential for growth in various sectors such as fintech and healthcare.

"to, come, in, and, by, the way, in, some, cases he thinks that this company's a fraud he thinks that this person is full of and, then, they, know, that, and, so, if i'm, a, champion, of, a deal, i, c..."

30
1:01:01 - 1:02:03
1:02 duration180 words

The Chaotic Landscape of Africa

In this segment, Wolfe paints a vivid picture of Africa's complex environment, where entrepreneurial opportunities coexist with geopolitical instability. He discusses the rise of violent extremism and the potential for Africa to become a focal point for international conflict, while also highlighting the emergence of new African unicorns.

"labor fights there's a friend who's making a film about an area called gashaka which i never knew about it's like a jurassic park in nigeria you have chinese gangs that are coming in illegally logging..."

31
1:02:03 - 1:02:59
0:55 duration186 words

Investing with Caution and Curiosity

Wolfe shares Lux Capital's cautious investment strategy in Africa, focusing on seed investments in promising companies. He emphasizes the importance of building relationships and learning from local entrepreneurs to identify genuine opportunities amidst the chaos.

"where particularly the u.s has been militarily under invested have you found ways to participate we have made a series of what i consider seed investments not all the companies are startups they're in..."

32
1:02:59 - 1:04:43
1:43 duration388 words

Personal Reflections and Daily Habits

In a lighter moment, Wolfe reflects on his personal life, discussing his favorite hobbies, daily habits, and the importance of family. He shares insights into how these moments contribute to his overall well-being and perspective on life.

"opportunity and i think done rightly with good partners it can be enormous and the first layer will be low-hanging fruit technologically but a meeting i had even earlier today was talking about the ne..."

33
1:04:43 - 1:07:34
2:51 duration653 words

Influential Figures in Wolfe's Life

Wolfe identifies key individuals who have shaped his professional journey, including his wife, co-founder Peter, and investor Bill Conway. He highlights the balance they bring to his life and the impact of their support on his career.

"set me on some new path and i get obsessive when i discover that it's that feeling of like wait a second this what and then i get really curious and then i ping some smart people and they don't know a..."

34
1:07:34 - 1:08:00
0:26 duration102 words

Lessons from Mistakes

In this closing segment, Wolfe reflects on his biggest mistakes, particularly regarding personal relationships and the importance of nurturing friendships. He shares valuable lessons learned from his experiences and the significance of long-term thinking in both business and personal life.

"people in my life all right josh one more what's the biggest mistake you've made and what did you learn from it there's so many and most of them i think around people there's old friendships that i un..."