
56 segments available
Dan Hockenmaier is an expert on marketplace strategy and growth. He was previously the Director of Growth at Thumbtack as well as a partner at Reforge, where he co-created the monetization track. Currently, he is the Head of Strategy and Analytics at Faire. In today’s episode, Dan shares the building blocks of a growth model, important considerations when building your growth model, and how to get started. We also chat about retention best practices, the complexity of building a marketplace, the future of marketplaces, and when it makes sense to add a SaaS business to a marketplace, and vice versa. Find the full transcript here: https://www.lennysnewsletter.com/p/developing-a-growth-model-marketplace — Where to find Dan Hockenmaier: • Twitter: https://twitter.com/danhockenmaier • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/dan-hock/ • Website: https://www.danhock.com/ — Where to find Lenny: • Newsletter: https://www.lennysnewsletter.com • Twitter: https://twitter.com/lennysan • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/lennyrachitsky/ — Thank you to our wonderful sponsors for making this episode possible: • Amplitude: https://amplitude.com/ • Flatfile: https://www.flatfile.com/lenny • Eppo: https://www.geteppo.com/ — Referenced: • Reforge: https://www.reforge.com/ • Casey Winters on Lenny’s Podcast: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/how-to-sell-your-ideas-and-rise-within-your-company • Faire: https://www.faire.com/ • Dan’s blog post on the future of marketplaces: https://www.danhock.com/posts/the-future-of-marketplaces • Careers at Faire: https://www.faire.com/careers — In this episode, we cover: (00:00) Dan’s background (04:01) What is a growth model? (07:20) The building blocks of a growth model for your own business (10:22) The value in building your own model (11:12) The importance of retention over growth (14:49) Getting started building your model (19:18) The growth model at Thumbtack (20:36) The importance of the early user experience for retention (25:02) Why is a marketplace a good business? (28:23) Health metrics for marketplaces (33:47) Supply and demand, and why you shouldn’t neglect demand (36:23) The role of ROI equations and how to use them (39:16) Why you should tread lightly when working with marketplaces (42:43) Expanding marketplaces (46:50) How marketplaces can add a SaaS offering, and why adding a marketplace to a SaaS business is trickier (49:47) When is there an opportunity to unbundle? (54:43) B2B marketplaces (56:36) What is fragmentation? (58:46) The future of marketplaces — Production and marketing by https://penname.co/. For inquiries about sponsoring the podcast, email podcast@lennyrachitsky.com.
Dan Hockenmaier shares a crucial lesson about managing a marketplace, comparing it to gardening. He emphasizes the need for a light touch when influencing the ecosystem, as actions can have delayed and unforeseen consequences. This segment highlights the importance of understanding core incentives and mechanisms within a marketplace.
"one lesson I learned the hard way a bunch of times on this is that if you think about running a Marketplace you're basically like a gardener you have to have a very light touch like if you're building..."
In this introduction, Lenny welcomes Dan Hockenmaier, an expert in marketplace strategy and growth. Dan discusses his extensive experience with marketplace startups, including his role at Thumbtack and his current position at Faire. This segment sets the stage for a deep dive into growth models and marketplace strategies.
"on playing with those variables welcome to Lenny's podcast I'm Lenny and my goal here is to help you get better at the craft of building and growing products I interview world-class product leaders an..."
Dan explains the concept of a growth model, describing it as an analytical representation of how a business grows. He emphasizes the importance of building a growth model to understand business dynamics and make informed decisions. This segment provides foundational knowledge for listeners interested in growth strategies.
"hockenmeyer I'm excited to chat with my friend John Cutler from podcast sponsor amplitude hey John hey Lenny excited to be here John give us a behind the scenes at amplitude when most people think of ..."
Dan outlines the basic components needed to build a growth model for a business, particularly focusing on acquisition channels, retention rates, and monetization strategies. He highlights the value of creating a model to assess opportunities and understand business performance.
"well we've always thought of amplitude as being about supporting the full product Loop think collect data inform bets ship experiments and learn that's the heart of growth to us so the big aha was see..."
In this segment, Dan delves into the essential building blocks of a growth model for SaaS businesses. He discusses acquisition channels, retention metrics, and monetization strategies, providing a clear framework for listeners to apply to their own businesses.
"to another company after just one bad experience during onboarding so if your CSV importer doesn't work right which is super common considering customer files are chock full of unexpected data and for..."
Dan explains how to adapt a growth model for transactional businesses, emphasizing the need to consider customer transactions, average order values, and unit economics. This segment provides insights into the complexities of modeling growth for different business types.
"you here so we are actual relay friends and we've collaborated on a number of writing projects including the race car growth framework and a whole thing on consumer growth strategy but there's a coupl..."
Dan discusses the additional complexities involved in building a growth model for marketplace businesses. He highlights the importance of understanding both supply and demand dynamics and how they interact, which is crucial for accurately modeling growth in a marketplace context.
"more than 10 acts of business in that time from there I built a strategy consulting firm where we work with a bunch of the top gross stage marketplaces on a range of topics and ultimately that firm wa..."
In this segment, Dan emphasizes the significance of non-linear growth factors, such as customer referrals and reinvestment strategies. He explains how these elements can dramatically influence the speed of business growth, providing a deeper understanding of marketplace dynamics.
"other teams make better decisions so we're typically diving really deep into a bunch of topics across the business I think it's really easy to make that work kind of go off the rails or go too deep un..."
Dan elaborates on the critical interactions between supply and demand in a marketplace. He discusses how changes in supply can affect customer behavior and retention, highlighting the need for careful modeling to avoid pitfalls in marketplace management.
"these assumptions but it is a great tool for kind of opportunity assessment for the business awesome so maybe a simple way to think about it just summarizing is it's essentially a formula for your bus..."
Dan shares his approach to developing a high-level conceptual model for marketplace businesses. He advocates for creating mini-models for different teams within the organization to better understand their specific contributions to overall business growth.
"kind of basic monthly retention curve so how long are they staying around what's the survival rate of each of these in those kind of Stack over time and then you have monetization so in the simplest e..."
Dan Hockenmaier discusses the intricacies of building a growth model for marketplaces, emphasizing the importance of understanding both sides of the business. He warns about the sensitivity of assumptions in modeling and highlights the challenges of balancing supply and demand, using Amazon's pet supply category as an example of how new supply can impact customer retention and revenue.
"part to model but for transactional business you took that very high cogs or something else that you need to model something right because you're just taking a cut you're not selling software and then..."
In this segment, Dan explains the concept of creating mini models for different teams within a marketplace. He emphasizes that each product pod should have its own model to understand the specific levers that drive their metrics, allowing for a more granular approach to growth strategy and resource allocation.
"hard to side something we've spent a lot of time thinking about at Bears Marketplace businesses and so if you're not careful you can have a junk in junk out problem with marketplaces and so the thing ..."
Dan outlines two core archetypes for growth teams: those managing linear funnels and those dealing with complex tensions in the business. He illustrates how marketplace quality teams must balance the introduction of new suppliers with maintaining customer experience, highlighting the nuanced challenges of growth in a marketplace context.
"last point a little more concrete what's an example of that what's a team that would have their own little model and imagine every team has their own understanding of yeah whatever works but yeah what..."
Dan shares insights on the importance of building growth models from first principles rather than relying solely on templates. He discusses how the process of creating a model can lead to deeper understanding and learning about the business, ultimately guiding effective growth strategies.
"their models are going to look pretty different than like what a growth team is managing got it so you mentioned this idea of archetypes and I was going to ask you when you think about developing a gr..."
In this segment, Dan reflects on his experience building growth models for various companies, emphasizing the sensitivity of growth to customer retention. He explains how understanding retention can significantly impact customer lifetime value (LTV) and acquisition strategies, using Thumbtack as a case study.
"which is a product in grow school which we both know has done I think probably the most work to build this into a discipline and so if you want to go really deep on this my top recommendation would be..."
Dan provides tactical advice for founders on how to effectively start building a growth model. He suggests partnering with a smart analyst or finance person to iterate on the model, emphasizing the importance of feedback loops and understanding leverage points within the business.
"a result you may be misallocated your product and growth resources in a pretty significant way so your point there is really important that the more you work on the stuff the more you will learn what ..."
Dan discusses how a growth model can inform quarterly and annual planning processes for startups. He explains how it can serve as a common currency for decision-making across different teams, enabling better resource allocation and strategic focus.
"awesome so say that somebody has been listening to this episode maybe they've heard it they've listened to it three times now and they're just like hey I got a model that kind of feels like the beginn..."
In this segment, Dan shares a pivotal experience from Thumbtack where building a growth model revealed the critical importance of customer retention. He explains how this insight led to a strategic shift in resource allocation from top-of-funnel efforts to enhancing the customer journey.
"ability to make much better kind of allocation decisions so would be like at the most macro level and I think the more micro one is for an individual product pod I had this Northstar goal which lever ..."
Dan emphasizes the significance of optimizing the early user experience to drive retention. He discusses how understanding variability in customer experiences can help identify areas for improvement, using examples from ride-sharing platforms to illustrate the impact of first impressions on long-term retention.
"better customer Journey awesome your point about retention being one of the biggest levers always is really reminds me at Airbnb there's like a dive ones or a data dive ones where the data scientist f..."
In this final segment, Dan highlights the importance of streamlining customer experiences to improve retention rates. He discusses strategies for ensuring that new users have a positive initial experience, which can significantly influence their long-term engagement with the marketplace.
"why this is a valuable product and kind of prove to them that it's valuable and so the experience that have been most effective have been typically focused on very early early life cycle and one reall..."
Dan discusses the common pitfalls in analyzing user behavior to predict retention. He highlights the uniqueness of each customer's experience and cautions against relying solely on correlational data to drive retention strategies.
"curves going forward amazing such a great example and story it makes me think about this work that I imagine every company ends up doing which is what are leading indicators of future retention and I'..."
This segment explores the strategic focus on new users rather than resurrecting churned users. Dan explains why it's often more effective to enhance the onboarding experience for new users to drive retention rather than trying to win back those who have already left.
"and it's interesting that onboarding comes up a lot on these conversations just the power of onboarding and how much effect that has down the road you're to your point people often want to increase re..."
Dan shares his enthusiasm for marketplaces, explaining their unique business dynamics. He discusses how marketplaces can achieve compounding growth and why they are attractive for venture capital due to their scalability and defensibility once established.
"so I want to transition a bit to talking about marketplaces I honestly can't think of anyone that's worked on more Marketplace companies than you maybe Jeff Jordan at a16z who's invested in Airbnb and..."
In this segment, Dan reflects on the complexities of working in marketplaces. He highlights the challenges and intricacies involved in growing these businesses, which makes them particularly engaging for professionals in the field.
"great businesses I think to your question on on why they're fun to work on I think everything is just harder every question is more complex and so that's made them I think really fun fun to work on fo..."
Dan outlines essential health metrics for evaluating marketplace performance. He emphasizes the importance of Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) and unit economics, as well as liquidity and share of wallet as critical indicators of marketplace health.
"that I mean I think there's a there's a few folks in this community who've worked with a bunch of marketplace and you start to see the same topics over and over so it's really fun to riff with that gr..."
This segment dives into the concept of liquidity in marketplaces. Dan explains how to measure reliability in fulfilling customer needs and the significance of conversion rates in assessing marketplace performance.
"beyond basic click-through metrics and instead use our North Star metrics like activation retention subscriptions and payments an EPO supports tests on the front end the back end email marketing and e..."
Dan discusses the importance of share of wallet as a metric for marketplace success. He explains how it reflects the depth of customer relationships and its implications for retention and business growth.
"money on every drive and so I think understanding that and the components that lead up to is very important part of understanding your Marketplace so those would be the tube kind of obvious ones I thi..."
In this segment, Dan provides insights on the balance between focusing on supply and demand in marketplaces. He discusses the importance of both sides while emphasizing that early-stage marketplaces often need to prioritize supply.
"a liquid Marketplace and essentially until you have a liquid Marketplace really nothing else matters and so this should be the primary thing you're focused on defining and then building tours and this..."
Dan concludes by discussing the significance of depth versus breadth in marketplace relationships. He argues that fostering deeper connections with customers can lead to better retention and a more defensible business model.
"retailer unfair if they're buying to shop stock their store how much of the product on their shelf came from their reverse from somewhere else these are very important metrics for us to understand one..."
Dan Hockenmaier emphasizes the importance of deepening relationships with existing customers over merely acquiring new ones. He argues that increasing the share of wallet from current customers is a better strategy for future retention and marketplace defensibility, highlighting the significance of understanding customer loyalty in marketplace dynamics.
"if you could if you could tell me we could grow GMD 10 by getting 10 more customers or by getting 10 of more of our current customers wallet I would take the latter because you now have a deeper relat..."
In this segment, Dan clarifies the concept of 'share of wallet' and its relevance in both B2B and consumer marketplaces. He explains how measuring the percentage of a customer's spending that goes to a marketplace can provide insights into business performance and customer engagement.
"marketplaces and so I'm curious do you find sure wallet is important on both types of marketplaces or is it a lot more important in B2B so you typically have some form of business on the supply side o..."
Dan discusses the common dilemma marketplace founders face regarding whether to prioritize supply or demand. He notes that while supply is crucial early on, a successful marketplace ultimately hinges on effectively aggregating demand, which is the true currency of the business.
"in their store what percentage of that shelf came from Fair versus something else awesome another constant question Marketplace Founders have is whether they should focus on Supply or demand and I kno..."
In this segment, Dan stresses the need to prioritize the customer experience when making decisions in a marketplace. He argues that understanding customer needs and optimizing for demand should guide supply acquisition strategies, ensuring that marketplace growth aligns with customer satisfaction.
"have enough Supply you don't have anything and so you do have to focus on it to to a high degree early on and two is often the supply side by Marketplace is using the product more deeply there's more ..."
Dan introduces the concept of ROI equations for acquiring supply and demand in marketplaces. He explains how these models can help businesses understand the interplay between customer acquisition costs and the necessary supply to meet demand, emphasizing the importance of internalizing marketplace dynamics.
"and so demand is the currency and so when you think about trade-offs or how to optimize a business I think taking the perspective of the customer or the demand side is always the right one I think the..."
In this segment, Dan shares insights on identifying constraints within a marketplace. He discusses the significance of monitoring supply and demand balance while also considering external factors that could impact marketplace performance, advising founders to focus on customer benefits.
"kind of pet store example on Amazon there's some amount of Supply where you're probably no longer incrementally improving the pet buyers experience and so it's probably not worth investing those dolla..."
Dan provides guidance on developing effective ROI models for marketplace businesses. He outlines a basic formulation for calculating customer acquisition costs and emphasizes the need to account for the dynamics between supply and demand in these models.
"include the cack of acquiring that customer but also the cack of acquiring the supply for that customer to purchase which is based on some ratio between the two and similarly on the supply side that b..."
Dan reflects on the tendency of early-stage marketplace founders to overcomplicate their strategies. He suggests that many principles of business growth, retention, and profit apply to marketplaces, and emphasizes the importance of focusing on core business fundamentals.
"folks to come up with these models in some way or is that a whole Master Class of its own so there's a lot of nuance by business but the basic formulation is CAC for this side you're focused on so let..."
Dan discusses the complexity of decision-making in marketplace businesses, highlighting that every choice can have second and third-order consequences. He uses pricing as an example to illustrate the intricacies involved in balancing supplier commissions and customer satisfaction.
"stage marketplaces Founders sometimes over focus on like the theory of marketplaces and how all this stuff that people have put out including yourself and others about just like how to think about Mar..."
In this segment, Dan uses a metaphor to describe the different approaches needed for managing marketplaces versus traditional businesses. He emphasizes the need for a light touch in marketplace management, as decisions can have unpredictable long-term effects.
"business and you're trying to figure out how to price your subscription theoretically you can draw a curve which says as my price goes up fewer are going to convert and so just find the optimal point ..."
Dan elaborates on the challenges of pricing strategies in marketplaces, noting that understanding supplier sensitivity to commission rates is crucial. He discusses the balance between charging higher commissions and providing value to customers.
"lesson I've learned the hard way a bunch of times on this is that if you think about running a Marketplace you're basically like a gardener you have to have a very light touch like if you're building ..."
Dan shares insights on expanding marketplaces, focusing on the importance of adjacency to existing business models. He discusses how understanding market dynamics and leveraging existing networks can enhance the success of new marketplace ventures.
"them to adopt these recommendations building a model to actually come up with the recommendations and so it's your point pricing is such a complex beast and especially at a Marketplace absolutely and ..."
In this segment, Dan emphasizes the need to prioritize marketplace expansion based on how closely related new opportunities are to the core business. He discusses the significance of network effects and how they can strengthen a marketplace's position.
"Services industry for Thumbtack or the global wholesale industry for fair like these are meaningful percentages of global GDP they're like huge markets and as a result they're really frustrating to wo..."
Dan concludes by highlighting the critical role of product quality in marketplace expansion. He warns against allowing go-to-market strategies to outpace product development, stressing that a strong customer experience is essential for sustainable growth.
"more likely their current model is going to work there than trying to expand into something else and that's the right prioritization function for them to think about versus like is retail slightly big..."
In this segment, Dan highlights the critical role of product quality in marketplace expansion. He explains that while go-to-market strategies are important, delivering an exceptional customer experience is paramount. A strong product fosters customer retention and engagement, which are essential for sustainable growth.
"exactly awesome I think there's yeah there's one other lesson here which I've learned a few times which is that product is the thing that matters when expanding so because of this Dynamic we talked ab..."
Dan explores the dynamics between marketplaces and SaaS businesses, noting that it's generally easier for a marketplace to transition into a SaaS model than the reverse. He discusses the challenges of building demand for SaaS products without existing marketplace relationships and emphasizes the importance of solving customer pain points.
"happy and you can give people what they're looking for is there anything you can add there or talk about yeah I think that's exactly right and the reason this is the right advice is because everything..."
Dan advises founders on assessing the viability of adding a SaaS product to their marketplace. He stresses the need for a solid, liquid marketplace before considering expansion and emphasizes understanding customer problems that require new tools or products. This strategic focus can lead to successful integration and enhanced customer experiences.
"how do we add a Marketplace to what we're doing I'm curious how often you find that this actually works out and what do you have to get right to add this other type of business model on top of somethi..."
In this segment, Dan discusses the strategic decision between vertical and horizontal marketplaces. He uses eBay as an example, highlighting successful niche marketplaces that emerged due to trust issues with inventory. Dan cautions against overhyping the unbundling trend and emphasizes the importance of scale and network effects in marketplace success.
"Founder was coming to you and they're like hey Dan we are a Marketplace and we're thinking about adding a SAS product on top would you one try to discourage them from that and if two that doesn't work..."
Dan elaborates on the challenges of unbundling existing platforms, arguing that while user experience improvements are important, they often overlook the benefits of scale. He provides insights into successful examples of unbundling and the conditions necessary for such ventures to thrive, emphasizing the rarity of high-frequency, high-value opportunities.
"successful horizontal Marketplace yeah absolutely and in that eBay example there are now a few quite successful examples of this like like goat and stockx or two where they like carved out the sneaker..."
Dan shares his perspective on the current state and future of B2B marketplaces. He notes the scarcity of founders familiar with B2B challenges and the impact of market fragmentation on marketplace viability. Dan explains that lower fragmentation can hinder marketplace success, as concentrated supply and demand reduce the need for intermediaries.
"narrow thing unless you find something which that sub segment is itself very high frequency or very high dollar value so like airbnb's example with that they unbundled from Craigslist because they pic..."
In this segment, Dan defines fragmentation in the context of marketplaces and its significance for business viability. He explains how the concentration of suppliers affects transaction volume and marketplace dynamics, providing examples of both low and high fragmentation scenarios to illustrate the concept.
"low frequency it comes with all kinds of new challenges because without frequency customers forget about you and so what is the hook to get them to come back do you have to reacquire traffic it create..."
Dan Hockenmaier discusses the emerging trend of B2B marketplaces and the challenges they face. He explains that while there is potential for growth in this sector, the lack of founders with a deep understanding of B2B problems limits the number of successful ventures. He emphasizes the importance of market fragmentation for the viability of B2B marketplaces.
"there do you think there's a rising trend of B2B marketplaces do you think this is always going to be a smaller collection what's your feeling so I do think we'll see more of them part of the reason w..."
In this segment, Dan Hockenmaier defines market fragmentation and its significance in the context of B2B marketplaces. He explains how a concentrated market can hinder the success of a marketplace, as larger suppliers may not need the marketplace's services and are less willing to pay high commissions.
"is that B2B also comes with something else which is much lower fragmentation in many cases and you need fragmentation for a good Marketplace like the more concentrated either side of your Market is th..."
Dan elaborates on the relationship between transaction volume and marketplace viability. He discusses how high-value transactions can lead suppliers to bypass marketplaces, emphasizing the need for marketplaces to provide significant value to justify their commissions.
"fragmented you are and the challenge that creates for a Marketplace is if there's 10 companies in space that are doing 80 of the volume it's very important for me to have a relationship with those 10 ..."
Dan shares insights on the evolution of marketplaces, highlighting a trend where newer marketplaces charge higher commissions by providing more value. He discusses the distinction between traditional marketplaces and those that may evolve into e-commerce platforms, emphasizing the importance of creativity and supplier engagement in determining the future of marketplace models.
"makes sense basically like how much value are you bringing to this market and if it's not enough where you can charge anything meaningful to run a business is just not going to work and so yeah that's..."
In this closing segment, Dan Hockenmaier discusses the blurred lines between marketplaces and e-commerce. He explains how owning supply can shift a business away from being a marketplace, using examples like Open Door to illustrate this point. He emphasizes the importance of direct transactions between supply and demand in maintaining a marketplace model.
"variable to me that matters in deciding which case you're going to have whether they consolidate or not is how much creativity there is in the space so like how much do you need the supplier to be com..."
Dan shares how listeners can connect with him and learn more about his work at Faire. He invites those interested in the marketplace space to reach out and explore career opportunities, providing links to his social media and the Faire website.
"Marketplace when you don't own the supply you are is that anything about that yeah that's a good a good mental perhaps like another way to say owning a supply is when there's no longer a direct transa..."