0:10
[Music] Yeah. Heat.
Search this video
0:23
[Music] [Music] Double kill.
0:49
[Music] [Music] [Music] [Music] [Music] Hey, hey, hey.
1:52
[Music] [Music] [Music] [Music] I see multiple journalists on the horizon. Stand by. Hey, hey, hey.
2:39
[Music] [Music] [Music] We came to this world to reach the stars.
3:25
We came to this world to see a future.
3:36
We came to this world [Music] to shape our future [Music] to feel the new [Music] Friendly IPM inbound.
4:15
[Music] [Music] [Music] Large journalistic force headed towards you. Standby. [Music] Founder Mo. >> You're watching CBN.
5:02
>> Today is Wednesday, September 3rd, 2025.
5:05
We are live from the TBPN Ultra Dome.
5:09
Let's look at the wide pull Ultradome on screen. There we go. Domest.
5:17
You can't really see the troughs, but anyway, uh we will uh be revealing more of the dome as we build it out.
5:22
Uh we continue to uh build out the temple of technology, the fortress of finance, the capital of capital.
5:28
Uh today, >> show off the trust a little bit.
5:32
>> Show off the trust a little bit.
5:32
Can do you have a camera?
5:33
How are you going to show off the trust?
5:36
>> Can't Can't they see it? >> I don't know.
5:37
Um well, we have a big truss and we're going to hang some uh hang some lights from it and show people off.
5:43
I think Jord's going to do some some pull-ups or something. He's going to climb.
5:46
I don't know if we have the insurance for this, Jordy.
5:47
This is very, very uh risky. There he is.
5:50
You can see him in the background.
5:53
Uh anyway, uh we're talking about Google today.
5:55
We covered it a little bit on the show yesterday.
5:59
Um but it made the front page of the Wall Street Journal.
6:02
You love to see it when tech businesses, companies that we love and feature every day on the show, make >> We're pushing them to rebrand it to the Sand Hill Journal.
6:12
>> Yes, the Wall Street Hill Road Journal.
6:15
Uh, Google dodges the worst penalties.
6:17
Search giant can't pay for exclusivity, but it isn't forced to divest Chrome.
6:23
So, good luck if you're out there bidding for the Chrome browser.
6:24
Google's holding on to it. I'm not selling.
6:29
You're going to have to drag me out of here saying Chrome at Google.
6:32
>> Arvin just punched a hole through the >> So did Sam.
6:35
>> Yeah, I think a lot of those I mean the postmortem on that is like all those companies were kind of trying to like mess with the legal case, right?
6:40
To just kind of be a thorn in Google's side.
6:42
Is that is that basically the takeaway or did they actually want to buy it or something?
6:47
I it seemed like some sort of >> I think a lot of people would love to own Chrome. >> Yeah.
6:51
But also a lot of people would love to just troll Google in the midst of their uh high high stakes case.
6:56
Uh anyway, so yesterday the news is Google wrapped up the case with the Justice Department and the result landed somewhere between nothing ever happens and we are so back in my opinion.
7:08
Haki says, "I think we all owe Sundar an apology." >> Yes.
7:13
Time to fill out the Sundar Pachai apology form.
7:16
I was not familiar with your game, Sundar. You're an absolute dog.
7:20
And >> can we pull up the Sundar uh chart? >> Yes. Yes.
7:23
Do we have a Sundar graphic we can pull up?
7:25
Uh he has been looking fantastic.
7:28
He has clearly been enjoying bulking season.
7:30
Uh and so we'll pull that up.
7:32
Um so lots of pundit pundits have been bearish on Google for years now.
7:36
I have probably issued a bearish proclamation at some point during this show, but uh it was it was easy to do, right?
7:43
Because uh they, you know, the narrative was very clean.
7:46
They failed to release a consumer LLM chat app as quickly as OpenAI.
7:51
Not only did, and the crazy thing is, first mover advantage really, really mattered.
7:55
First mover advantage did not matter in cloud.
7:57
AWS came out first, GCP came out second, Azure third or second, third, we don't even know.
8:04
And they're both huge businesses. very oligopolistic. Not true. Here we go. >> There we go.
8:11
>> Sundar, we got to get this revised.
8:11
Uh, but he looks fantastic. Yeah. Wow.
8:15
He really has been hitting the gym. I'd love to see it.
8:19
Anyway, >> really filling out the shirt there.
8:22
>> So, first mover advantage really, really did matter in consumer.
8:24
We've seen that with the amount of LLM queries from consumers.
8:27
Open AAI is running away with it.
8:29
it. Obviously there are lots of other good businesses to build in AI but in terms of consumer um even though Gemini that app launched three months later to consumers it wasn't fast enough and it obviously was made like it stung all the more because the transformer was invented at deep mind at Google and so
8:48
>> you have this narrative of like they can do science and they can do research but can they do consumer products and and so open AI is running away with it and it was very easy to be like open AI is going to disrupt Google, people are not going to be searching on Google anymore, blah blah blah. Uh, and there's some
9:01
Uh, and there's some still some good cra there's some good cases for cracks in the search business, I think.
9:07
Uh, semi analysis has laid out one that seems pretty reasonable.
9:09
Um, >> yeah, this case could have been a lot different if >> yes, LLM hadn't exploded. >> Yes, totally. Totally.
9:15
And so, the interesting thing is, um, it's been very easy to write the the Google Bear case.
9:21
At the same time, Buco Capital bloke, friend of the show, has been, uh, Google bull posting for a long time.
9:26
uh uh Ben Thompson has come out kind of pro Google really uh outlining what's going on.
9:34
They saw that that breakdown of the various parts of their business and when you look at it that way you're like wait a minute okay like couple trillion dollars like if you're only the Wall Street analyst that put this together they were only valuing Google search at like 800 mill 800 billion it was like
9:49
cloud was worth a ton demind was worth a ton who was worth over a hundred billion so you add all YouTube you add all these things up and the the properties become very valuable so when you look at it in its totality all of a sudden Google looks a lot more stable where you could say yeah maybe search sells off a little bit over the next 20 years. Like it's
10:04
Like it's clearly extremely lindy.
10:06
Uh and then simultaneously like YouTube gets even better because there's AI generated content and they have all the ability to generate AI video and like there's just a whole new wave, right?
10:14
So there's a million different ways that they can play this and Sundar's clearly uh an absolute dog and uh never doubt him ever. Um so >> never again.
10:22
Um uh but the interesting thing that you mentioned uh is that in an odd twist, the pressure from open AI and consumer AI chat interfaces potentially competing with traditional Google search might have sort of saved the search giant from more severe penalties.
10:36
And uh Ben Gilbert of Acquired summed it up well.
10:38
He said the court recognized the advantage Google has in paying browsers for distribution but held off on banning it because of the new AI disruption threat that they face.
10:49
>> I can read from the actual PDF from the case.
10:52
case. The court well recognizes what is skewing a payment banuing issuing >> issuing a payment >> a payment ban may mean for competition due to Google's massive financial advantage and its superior monetization distributors will be incentivized to
11:05
stick with Google because it can pay more thus leaving in place the very forces that effectively have made the ecosystem exceptionally resistant to change in the space and early uh sorry the money flowing into the space and how quickly it has arrived is astonishing. These companies already are in a better
11:20
These companies already are in a better position both financially and technologically to compete with Google than any traditional search company has been in decades except perhaps Microsoft.
11:28
They also are moving toward monetization on commercial queries.
11:33
These new realities give the court hope that Google uh will not simply outbid competitors for disruption if superior products emerge.
11:40
It also weighs on favor of caution before disadvantaging Google in this highly competitive space.
11:44
So, for now, Google will be permitted to pay distributors for default placement.
11:49
Um, and if you've been living under a data center, that is uh making Google search the default in Safari on the iPhone.
11:55
And there's other place placements as well.
12:00
But >> yeah, it's a very a uh it's a very like online take almost.
12:04
It's a very tech Silicon Valley take to see in a court document.
12:09
Like the context here is very fascinating to me.
12:13
lit written in this legal document is then venture funding in internet search was considered Silicon Valley's biggest nofly zone like yeah you can't raise money for something that's competitive with internet search like it's just not a thing uh but today >> there was you.
12:25
com >> yep >> trying to play in search founders coming on later today they're now an enterprise AI company >> oh interesting okay so pivot full pivot yeah uh >> I'm sure they're using some of the same foundational tech today established technologies are and startups are receiving hundreds of billions of dollars in capital to develop Genai products that pose a threat to the primacy of internet traditional internet search. Uh interesting.
12:49
Uh wouldn't it be wouldn't it be amazing if like the Apple wallet like by default had just like a ramp card in it.
12:57
They should just place for like default ramp in Apple.
12:59
I feel like we should make this deal happen.
13:03
The >> official card of business, >> but until that happens, go to ramp. com. Time is money. Save both.
13:07
easy to use corporate cards, bill payments, accounting, and a whole lot more all in one place. >> All in one place.
13:13
>> Um, >> it's unbelievably good. >> Yeah.
13:15
Uh, the other news, I mean, just to give some extra context on the financial outcomes here, uh, Tan, who's been on the show, summed it up, the financial results, Google stock is up 7%.
13:24
And it's a big, don't never say law of large numbers ever again to me.
13:28
You can pop 7% in a day off of one legal result.
13:34
Uh Apple stock is up 3% representing $250 billion of added market cap um on this antitrust ruling that Google can continue to pay Apple but in a non-exclusive manner and won't need to divest Chrome Android.
13:46
So um there are a bunch of good takes we're going to go through people who have been this way.
13:52
>> Again the reason that Apple is up is they have 20 billion a year coming in from Google that is effectively like one line of code >> and it's Yeah. It's ultra profitable. It's incredible. Yeah.
14:01
And uh and it's something that like when I was thinking about that going away, I was like this is actually like pretty pretty material to the business.
14:09
Like it it it's a goo Apple's a huge business, but we I mean we watched that Tim Cook interview from what a decade ago and he was like we made 50 billion in revenue, 10 billion in profit and now they're making what 5 billion a quarter from this something like that.
14:23
Uh like this is a this is a serious amount of money.
14:25
It's definitely like a material piece of the business.
14:29
Yeah, they're they're sitting at a 36 >> 36 times >> earnings. Yeah.
14:34
>> So, take away that >> they make a lot of money. >> Hundreds.
14:38
>> No, I'm just saying that economic value. >> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Billion or something.
14:42
>> Hundreds of billions of dollars. >> Crazy. Okay.
14:43
So, anyway, we're going to run through uh Ben Thompson's take because he's been studying this for the entire journey and and for years and I feel like he knows this stuff way better than we do.
14:52
Um but I do have some questions that I want to dig into.
14:54
We can kind of debate this, Jordy.
14:56
So, and by the way, the the the chat was uh was concerned because John actually was not in the chat.
15:01
Uh he's on a flight, but he got the flight Wi-Fi, so he locked in.
15:08
>> What an absolute problem.
15:09
>> And thank you to to all the brothers in the chat for for checking on uh Brother John. >> It's great.
15:16
Uh so, my question is, uh we're going to go through the timeline.
15:22
Uh Tyler Cosgrove has written out the full United States versus Google case timeline.
15:27
We're going to dig through.
15:27
Um we're also going to go through Ben Thompson's.
15:30
But my question that I want to answer is what do these what do these pay for default deals look like going forward?
15:36
Specifically in artificial intelligence, there is going to be a particularly odd dynamic around how LLM queries route on the iPhone by default.
15:48
like the last possible moment to start taking AI seriously and build like a serious uh AI foundation model lab.
15:52
Uh the la the last moment that you could credibly do that I feel like or was earlier this year.
16:00
Like that was when the the the the last train left the station.
16:04
And who was driving that train? Mark Zuckerberg. And what did he do?
16:06
He went and tried to buy everything that was viable and hire everyone who was hirable >> that weren't viable. >> And yeah, for sure.
16:13
And what he wound up with was not exactly a dream team. He didn't get Ilia. He didn't get Daario.
16:21
He didn't get Demis, but he got a really solid crew, right?
16:25
>> And some great business guys.
16:26
>> Some great business guys, some great researchers.
16:28
He he also just filled out the the the researcher tears.
16:30
Like he's got a ton of researchers.
16:32
So I feel like >> wasn't worried about salary caps.
16:36
>> No, no, no, not at all.
16:36
And so and and so we were debating yesterday whether Alex Wang was a good pickup for Meta.
16:43
And my conclusion is like he is the best possible option and I think it'll pencil out.
16:47
I think it'll be a good deal.
16:47
It is a big acquisition and it'll be interesting to see how we look on that in a decade.
16:51
But I think the opportunity is so big it makes sense.
16:53
Um at the same time uh like what would Apple even do if they wanted to compete in AI?
17:00
Like everyone is taken off all the all the pieces are off the board at this point.
17:06
They don't have the DNA for mega acquisitions.
17:07
So they're not going to go and try and buy anthropic like that.
17:10
That's just not how they work.
17:10
uh they don't like writing hund00 million checks for talent. Tim Cook only makes $74. 6 million a year.
17:17
They're not going to pay some AI researcher $100 million.
17:20
It's just not going to happen.
17:22
Uh and so everyone else sort of has a dance partner at this point.
17:25
Apple wouldn't just be like trying to turn the cruise ship that is Apple.
17:29
They're building an entirely new cruise ship.
17:31
It's just not going to happen.
17:32
So I don't think Apple is is going to try and build a serious frontier lab.
17:37
I think they're going to partner on this.
17:38
And the question is where does it leave them?
17:40
They have something incredibly valuable.
17:42
Uh do you know how many active iPhone users there are worldwide right now?
17:49
>> One and a half billion. >> 1. 4 billion. Isn't that a ton?
17:50
That just I I feel like I was if I had to just guess, I'd be like >> job's not finished. >> Truly. >> Truly.
18:00
But but so like that is incredibly valuable because it's not just it's not just over a billion users.
18:05
It's over a billion users that have >> they can charge $9.
18:06
99 a month forever randomly. >> Yeah. Yeah.
18:10
So many different monetization, but it's also it's like it's it's the top 1 billion really us like basically of like earners because it's the most expensive phone usually.
18:20
Um and so and they also have that button on the side that right now activates something that should feel like AI but is very clearly far from the frontier.
18:30
And so the logical outcome feels like a partnership here.
18:32
But what will the scale and structure of that partnership be if Open AI really nails agentic commerce as semi- analysis suggests?
18:39
It wouldn't be crazy for OpenAI to pay Apple billions of dollars to be the default.
18:46
And so right now we're thinking about if you push the Siri button, you trigger an LLM inference query. That's very expensive.
18:55
Every time I hit chat GBT, it's a couple cents.
18:57
If I do some crazy reasoning things, some deep research report might be a dollar. I don't even know. It's expensive, right?
19:04
If I'm sending off some agent to go and like research every single type of >> an aquifer somewhere. >> Yeah. Yeah.
19:10
That's what it feels like, right?
19:11
It feels like every time you hit uh you hit a query, it's expensive.
19:13
And so, but that's going to flip.
19:16
And I think each query is actually going to be monetizable and they're all going to be they're basically all going to be profitable like Google searches.
19:22
And so what if they are profitable?
19:24
If every time someone hits an LLM, it's not a cost center, but it's actually a profit center.
19:31
Well, then OpenAI can pay to get more search volume, some more query volume.
19:37
And so that means that maybe OpenAI will wind up paying Apple billions of dollars to be the default.
19:44
And of course, they're going to try and build their own device.
19:45
And there's a lot of other dynamics, but um would they go with Gemini because they're already on Google for the search default, but would they go w would they do that or or is that too is that never are they never going to be able to compete there because uh Gemini is so deeply integrated with Android and the Android phones are are over here do kind of doing their own thing.
20:07
So um you can imagine >> and and over this year there's been rumors bubbling up of Apple in conversations with Anthropic with ChatgBT with Gemini right and a lot of these companies have been throwing around >> some very big numbers with uh with with with Tim and the Apple team and I think they had at least back then they they seem to have some stickers.
20:28
So right now it feels like the foundation labs are going to Apple and saying every time we run a query it costs us 1 cent, 10 cents, a dollar, whatever.
20:38
You got to pay us to use our amazing intelligence. >> Yeah.
20:44
To bring value to your users.
20:46
>> But I think it might flip.
20:46
And I think that the each query might actually be profitable just at the query level because there's going to be commerce that's triggered from those.
20:56
So, in the future, you'll pick up your phone, you'll press the button on the side, and you can instantly fire off a best-in-class OpenAI agent to do your bidding.
21:05
So, you'll say, "Order me some creatine." And it'll just go do it.
21:07
And that will be valuable and that will actually drive that will be a profitable query.
21:15
And so, OpenAI could potentially be paying Apple for the right to do that.
21:20
So, right now, Open AI, OpenAI and Apple do have a partnership in place, but the reporting suggests that no money is directly changing hands.
21:25
But I don't necessarily expect it to stay that way. So I don't know. Uh what's your take?
21:31
What how do you do you think that this is reasonable that Open AI could be paying Apple billions of dollars within the next I don't know five years?
21:38
Or do you think it it flips the other way and Apple is the one shelling out billions of dollars for access to frontier AI models from maybe Anthropic, maybe uh maybe OpenAI, maybe someone else.
21:54
>> Yeah, it's interesting.
21:54
I mean, the people that are paying for chat GBT today probably have a pretty insane overlap with iPhone customers.
22:00
Like, it probably looks something Yeah. >> like this.
22:07
>> Um, I I think that Sam recognizes I mean, every consumer tech entrepreneur has like realized how important it is to integrate at the hardware level, right?
22:19
This is why Zach is >> hellbent on winning in VR, right?
22:21
he's been sick of like being at the app layer.
22:26
And I know that Sam >> uh uh does not want to be in that same, you know, why would he pay billions for Johnny Iive and that team like he he he he understands the importance of the hardware layer and certainly will recognize the leverage that Apple is going to have over the entire ecosystem.
22:44
I think the question is a lot of this just comes down to uh in my view uh are consumers going to be paying for AI in the long run?
22:53
I haven't been totally convinced that that that the everyday American is going to be spending certainly not $200 a month.
22:58
I don't even know about $20 a month. >> I think it flips.
23:03
>> It's going to it's going to ultimately flip.
23:05
>> And so I can see I can see there being a period where OpenAI is willing to pay to be like the default intelligence. Yeah.
23:14
>> product within the Apple ecosystem.
23:14
But again, there >> it is just going to be a really it'll be it'll be an interesting dynamic and partnership, right?
23:22
Because it's gonna it's so there's so much tension there because Apple is going to want to Apple is already selling intelligence as a reason to upgrade the iPhone, right?
23:29
And they they've gotten lawsuits over this because they sold Apple intelligence and then people are like, "This isn't very smart at all.
23:36
What did what did I just buy?" Right?
23:38
And so are they going to be incentivized to say >> even 70 IQ is a form of intelligence.
23:44
It's just a low level of intelligence.
23:46
They didn't say they didn't say Apple high IQ intelligence.
23:48
They they didn't say Apple super intelligence.
23:50
They just said Apple intelligence.
23:51
It has some level of intelligence. >> Apple room temp.
23:55
>> Room temp intelligence. >> Room temp. I Apple.
24:00
>> What do you think, Tyler?
24:00
Do you think that OpenAI will be paying Apple or do you think Apple will be paying other foundation labs or or what where will the flow of money go in the next few years?
24:12
>> Yeah, I I don't really see it flipping very soon to where uh like >> prompts or or tokens are like actually super profitable.
24:19
super profitable. Um because you need like both massive you need like way better capabilities and it needs to be way more efficient because like if you just have more capabilities still like right now most people are not paying for chatbt they're just using the
24:33
the you know free tier >> which is like if you compare I mean >> if you compare 40 like look at like 5 months ago if you compare 40 to like 03 >> it was like massive you know difference and people still weren't paying >> in cost or in in capabilities >> capabilities yeah and People say weren't pink. So, you needed to be like way
24:51
So, you needed to be like way better in order for people to actually start paying or you need to be way cheaper.
24:58
>> Yeah, I don't know if I agree with that.
24:59
I I I feel like 40 was definitely good enough.
25:01
People were obsessed with it.
25:03
People were like falling in love with it, right?
25:05
>> Even Meek Mill >> like I understand why as a power user like didn't get that much out of it.
25:09
But >> yeah, but I I think you like if you ask norm people what they think of like AI, they're like, "Oh yeah, this is not going to take my job at all." Yeah.
25:16
>> When in reality, if you used like 03 and they if they used 03 every day, if they were a power user, they would be I think they'd be way more bullish on AI generally. >> Yeah.
25:25
>> So, I think that might be evidence that people like I don't know are not >> I think I mean one crazy dynamic is is Apple says I mean if they were to do a deal with OpenAI, they could just say like great like we're going to we're going to sign up every like how many how many paying subs do you have? Great.
25:42
We're going to start heavily we if Apple just starts heavily pushing chat GBT they will by default get their 30% from the app store right but they could work out >> so like this could end up being like even if even if openai is not directly paying yeah
25:58
>> Apple for it could end up generating >> I don't think it's enough >> you don't think it's enough >> I don't think it's enough money for the value that that it'll bring on if it was actually integrated into like the Siri button at the low level. I can just
26:10
I can just press a button and say, "Order me creatine. Order me creatine."
26:16
And it knows my address because it knows my home address from my contact in the in there.
26:19
It has my payment information saved. It does all of that.
26:25
like I don't know if taking 30% of my chat GPT subscription if I subscribe and if I subscribed on mobile but really most people are going to subscribe on desktop and OpenAI is going to be constantly being like hey go over here and like use a web view to like subscribe this way and stuff. >> I don't know.
26:42
Uh it'll be interesting to see how it how it pencils out.
26:45
I feel like there's going to be some new deal that that that that's going to happen.
26:50
Someone's gonna someone's going to pay someone's going to bid.
26:51
Someone's going to pay out. >> Yeah.
26:53
The Google team says, "Hey, we're already paying 20 20 billion.
26:55
Why don't we double it >> to be Gemini be the default?" >> Can you imagine?
27:01
I mean, if Gemini was the default on on on iPhone, that would be bizarre, but I mean, it does kind of like it does kind of match with the with the search deal, right?
27:13
>> Um anyway, let's read through Ben Thompson.
27:15
Maybe we may maybe go through the the history first to get us up to speed.
27:19
Tyler, do do you mind taking us through? >> Take us through it.
27:20
Um, so this is the United States versus Google. Yeah. Which started in 2020.
27:26
>> 2020 starts in October 2020. So that's under Trump. >> Okay.
27:30
>> Um, so yeah, I think let's just go over like kind of the central claim of the actual case first.
27:35
>> So it's basically that Google is violating the the Antitrust Act of 1890.
27:40
>> It's wild to think about and you know before Donald Trump was a technology founder Yeah.
27:45
with True Social, there was a time where he was beefing with big tech.
27:50
so long ago >> instead of just competing.
27:52
>> Oh, thanks for getting us up on uh VHS. >> We needed this. >> Fantastic. Only possible on reream.
27:57
One liveream 30 plus destinations.
28:02
Multiream your VHS tapes and reach your audience wherever they are. Head over to Reream. >> It truly is.
28:08
The technology is incredible. >> Yes. Also, yeah. Continue. >> Okay.
28:12
So, so um Sherman Antitrust Act of 1890.
28:14
I also put some of the the victims previous victims of this act. So, we see Standard Oil. >> Okay.
28:21
>> Standard Oil, American Tobacco Company, US Steel, AT&T.
28:24
This is what broke up Bell Labs.
28:27
>> Um, probably set us back a couple decades.
28:29
>> You know who founded Bell Labs? >> Uh, pop quiz. Who founded Bell Labs?
28:34
>> Wait, is it like Oh, I don't know. Is it Claude Shannon? >> No. >> No.
28:38
>> Who founded Bell Labs? >> Oh, >> Bell Labs. >> Alexander Granbell. >> Alexander Graanbell. Yeah, that's correct. Yep.
28:47
Alexander Graanbell started Bell Labs. >> Let's go. We don't know.
28:49
We don't know how to name We don't know how to name companies. >> I know.
28:52
I was looking at the name.
28:54
>> Standard Oil American Tobacco US.
28:57
>> What does the A in AT&T stand for? Is that America? >> American technology.
29:00
And >> let me ask Gemini. Okay.
29:04
>> What does AT&T >> Okay. Anyway, continue.
29:06
And then Microsoft, of course, it was a headache for Bill Gates for his entire career until he retired. >> Yeah. >> Oh, that's so good.
29:11
American Telephone and Telegraph. >> Oh, that's so good.
29:14
When you pick a name like that and you actually you understand the job and you're just like, "Yeah, standard oil.
29:21
I'm going to standardize oil."
29:24
>> I need a name for my telephone and telegraph company.
29:25
H what about American American telephone and telegraph? >> Company founder. >> Okay. Okay. Anyway, sorry. >> Okay.
29:34
So, so basically the claim is that um they're legally monopolizing the search engine and uh the the advertising markets like in search.
29:42
>> Um so they're they're uh locking up distribution.
29:44
Uh they're self-reinforcing barriers to entry.
29:45
Um and and they're >> and the evidence is that they paid billions to Apple and other vendors. Exactly.
29:52
Probably hundreds of billions at this point because it's been like 10 billion for decades, right? Yeah. So, wow. They are they are up.
29:59
>> So, so that is uh they filed the the case DOJ in 2020.
30:04
>> Um >> wait, should we start with the history of Google search and Safari and then run through this? That might be better. >> So, yeah. Okay.
30:09
So, so Google search and Safari. So 2002 >> 2002.
30:14
>> This is >> pre iPhone.
30:15
>> Yeah, this is pre iPhone.
30:15
This is just on Safari on the >> Wow.
30:19
>> I I guess the Mac or whatever it was.
30:21
>> So So Google's the default there.
30:21
It's just like >> they just Apple just picked that because it's just the best. They just put it in. Yeah. There's no like dealer.
30:29
>> So Google's been the default search engine on Apple devices since 2002.
30:34
>> And they we don't know specifics.
30:34
Most recently it was $20 billion annually, but but it's been over 20 year partnership.
30:41
I mean that's a crazy it's crazy to go I mean Google was founded late September >> 1998 and then by 2002 you're the default on Apple like the previous era biggest computing company.
30:53
I mean I guess Apple wasn't like what it is today back in 2002 uh kind of pre iPhone.
30:56
It was certainly not like the biggest company in the world but still like >> pretyler too. >> Yeah.
31:04
>> It's all pre I mean you 2005 >> 200.
31:08
Hey, if you want to feel old, >> born in 2005. >> Born in 2005.
31:13
Okay, so anyway, uh Sergey Brin, what does he think?
31:16
>> So, so 2005, Sergey Brin suggest suggest some kind of revenue share.
31:19
They always call it a revenue share out of the goodness of his heart.
31:21
What What is he thinking? That's crazy.
31:24
>> I I have to assume there's it's like there's some competition.
31:26
He's seeing it on the horizon.
31:29
>> Um but yeah, I like that he they always call it a revenue share.
31:31
They don't they're not paying to be the default. >> Sure.
31:35
>> They're just helping a brother out, you know.
31:36
And then um 2007 >> yeah 2007 2009 these are like the real negotiations.
31:43
They're like it's like Sergey Bren says like oh yeah we need revenue share but then when it comes down to it he's like well you know let's slow down let's push the brakes a little bit.
31:51
The numbers are getting a little high.
31:52
Um and then basically the the actual like numbers are not public.
31:55
Um >> they really only show up as a result of this case like them being >> oh after the fact.
32:02
So we learned this through the case.
32:03
We didn't know for years. Wow. >> Yeah.
32:05
So it's not really till 2021.
32:07
>> So there's like a full decade where people were like, "Yeah, like Google's probably paying Apple something."
32:10
But >> yeah, but hiding hiding a >> $30 million >> $20 billion line item and you're >> you can do it if uh I I I believe the disclosure rules in SEC filings are something like if it's a if it's a if it's a division of the company that reports the CEO, then you have to break out the financials. This is like YouTube.
32:31
This is uh the story of like AWS when we first got the AWS financials.
32:34
Um so if it's just something like like you know is some deal and it's just one deal like it's not it's not even uh it's not even like a whole division of the company.
32:44
>> A deal I did with Steve. >> Yeah.
32:45
It's just like just like other other income >> or something like that. I don't know. >> Yeah.
32:50
So 2021 it's it's kind of revealed or or estimated at least that uh payments are around 20 billion a year.
32:57
>> Um and then 2023 this is also a result of the case.
33:00
Um, Apple is like confirmed to be taking uh 36% of the the revenue from Safari that Google makes. >> Okay.
33:07
Oh, so it's similar to their app store revenue a little bit higher 36%.
33:11
And that's probably how they got to the number.
33:14
>> That's pretty crazy that Google's making $6 billion off of >> I never knew they got where they were getting 30 36% for the big man.
33:21
>> For the big >> for the big man. >> That's crazy. >> Yeah.
33:24
And then 2025 >> like we know you paid to be here, but I'm going to need a cut, too. >> Yeah. Wow. Yeah. Okay.
33:29
So, let's go through the the full the case.
33:32
So, um >> September 2023, uh this is really the first like actual like trial.
33:40
>> Um it's a bench trial.
33:40
I >> don't really know what that is, but August 2024 is is the actual like initial judgment.
33:49
>> So, this is Google is in fact violating antitrust. Yes.
33:53
>> Like something needs to be done.
33:53
We don't know what is to be done. >> Yes.
33:56
what we're going to do, but then we will eventually decide what the punishment is. >> Yeah. >> But they are guilty. >> They are guilty.
34:01
There's no uh you know results like what are they going to do?
34:06
But >> yeah, they're guilty.
34:06
Um and then it's not till April of 2025.
34:08
So this is 5 years after the you know it was actually filed.
34:12
Um there's the remedies trial.
34:12
I think that's what it's >> uh so this is like what is actually to be done now?
34:20
Like we know that they're a monopoly.
34:23
>> What do we do about it?
34:23
Y >> and then it wasn't until uh I guess yesterday >> that was Got it.
34:30
>> So we I think we already went through some of the verdict, >> but it's um >> the the uh the judge denied the DOJ's request for forest vesture, >> okay, >> of Chrome and Android.
34:40
>> Um they ordered Google to end exclusive distribution agreements.
34:43
Um so that's like I think we talked about this too with Apple.
34:47
Uh you can't like just it can't be exclusive to Apple the like payments or whatever. >> Yeah.
34:53
What what does that mean in practice?
34:54
Uh it can't be exclusive.
34:54
So they have to pay like Xiaomi or something.
35:01
Are we talking about other phone manufacturers?
35:02
Are we talking about other other search engines?
35:04
Like I know that it like like it's not like if I go into my Safari settings, I I can't pick Bang.
35:11
Like I I I can still pick other things.
35:14
It's just the default that that they're paying for.
35:17
>> Uh we have to dig into that.
35:17
Jordy, do do you want to look that up or >> Gemini? >> Okay, cool.
35:21
I don't it's kind of like legal ease.
35:23
Um and then then there's uh mandating Google to share search index and and user >> basically sharing data with >> so I don't understand the exclusive.
35:31
So so Google pays Mosilla.
35:35
>> Y >> they Mozilla basically wouldn't survive without Google apparently.
35:39
It's like a very significant amount of their revenue which is funny because >> Google obviously competes with >> on Chrome >> with Chrome.
35:47
Um, and then they do this with device manufacturers like Samsung, um, that just makes make, you know, continue to make, uh, Chrome and Google search pre-installed default. >> Okay.
36:00
And then what's the last one?
36:00
Uh, uh, search index sharing of the search index and user interaction data with rivals. So is what is that? Bang.
36:09
>> I Yeah, so I guess this means these are all basically direct quotes from the actual like file.
36:13
Um, but I assume it means that they have to just share some of the like actual like >> index data from like whatever page rank is.
36:22
>> Um, they have to like put out publicly.
36:25
>> So, we got to hammer the chief product officer of Microsoft today about Bing and what this means because uh, yeah, I mean there's got to be a way to make money off this if you're Microsoft.
36:34
This is this is the way to do it. Okay.
36:38
Anyway, any anything else from the the history?
36:39
So, so just to be clear, the ex they prevent exclusive contracts.
36:42
So, Google's barred from entering or maintaining exclusive contracts that give its search engine, Chrome, Google Assistant, or Gemini app a monopoly position on a device.
36:52
So, basically, they can't go to a >> uh smartphone manufacturer and say you just can't host any other. >> Sure.
36:59
Uh in the chat, Periclet says, "Google's only going to share their search data with like other top three companies.
37:05
It's still remaining a monopoly." Uh interesting.
37:06
and people people enjoy the VHS.
37:09
So, thank you for for tuning in.
37:12
Um, >> also so so these rules um also apply to like Genai stuff.
37:16
So, this all this also applies to like Gemini if they want to do the same, you know, if they want to lease it to Apple or whatever.
37:20
Um, all the same rules apply about >> if you've been enjoying the whiteboard segments, we are thinking about getting a smart whiteboard where we can put up a Fig Jam from Figma.
37:29
Of course, we're sponsored by Figma.
37:31
Think bigger, build faster.
37:33
Figma helps design development teams build great products together.
37:34
You can get started for free. figma. com.
37:39
Let's run through Ben Thompson's take.
37:41
Um, so he kicks it off with uh Google's remedy decision. Alphabet Inc.
37:44
will be required to share online search data with rivals while avoiding harsher penalties, including the force sale. We know this.
37:51
Uh, Google's statement was short and sweet.
37:53
Earlier today, US court overseeing the DOJ's lawsuit over how he distributes search issued a decision on next steps.
37:59
He the Google closes says as always we continuing to we're continuing to focus on what matters building innovative products that people choose to love choose and love.
38:08
Um it's a good line that's a statement of a company that lost some battles but won the war in my estimation says Ben Thompson in in strategy which you should go subscribe to.
38:17
There are some cursory objections to Judge Meta's decision but by and large that statement exudes relief and rightfully so.
38:24
The company that is truly breathing the com uh the company is truly breathing easier today, however, is Apple.
38:32
Apple's actually breathing easier because they're getting that sweet sweet 20 36% off the >> top 99% margin 20 20 billion a year.
38:43
>> The first set of remedies uh were the ones that Google proposed and has already implemented, namely ending the exclusive agreements that were the foundation of Judge Meta's original finding of liability. So, uh, let's see.
38:57
Uh, I want to know what these actual, uh, remedies are. Here we go.
38:59
Again, this is literally illegal behavior.
39:02
What >> we should just highlight again.
39:05
So, Google will be barred from entering or maintaining any exclusive contract relating to the distribution of search, Chrome, assistant, and Gemini.
39:11
Uh, Google shall not enter or maintain any agreement that conditions the licensing of the Play Store or any other Google application on the distribution, preloading or placement of Google search, Chrome.
39:23
That's just >> this is the bundling thing.
39:25
So, a lot of the antitrust cases hinge on bundling.
39:30
You say, "Oh, you can't have the Play Store on your Android phone unless you're defaulting to search or you you have to have Chrome pre-installed if you want access to search."
39:40
Like all of that stuff is uh is seen as anti.
39:45
>> So Ben says again this is literally illegal behavior.
39:47
So ending it was the bare minimum.
39:48
Antitrust precedent however dictates that judge meta go further again from the opinion. >> Uh this is from meta. >> Oh this is good too.
39:56
So uh they cannot ma enter or maintain an agreement that prohibits any partner either Apple or Samsung uh from simultaneously distributing any other search engine browser or genai product.
40:13
So you c so Google can't go to someone and say and say hey uh you in order to have search as your default or Google search or whatever deal we're doing or whatever we're paying you uh you can't have anthropic pre-installed or you can't have um uh Mosilla pre-installed like you you can't be in the contract uh and and that was and that is illegal behavior and so ending it was the bare minimum says Ben Thompson.
40:40
Antitrust precedent, however, dictates that Judge Meta go further.
40:44
Again, from the opinion, the question now is what to do about Google's violations.
40:48
Precedent requires fashioning antitrust re remedies that effectively pry open to competition a market that has been closed by a monopolist's illegal restraints.
40:59
Denying the fruits of the violation is a valid objective, and so too is ensuring that anti-competitive behavior will not recur in the same or related ways.
41:08
The court has broad discretion to impose remedies to accomplish those aims.
41:13
Judge Meta laid out four fruits of the violation.
41:16
The court found that the agreements had four main anti-competitive effects.
41:20
They one foreclosed a substantial portion of the relevant markets, thus impairing rivals opportunities to compete.
41:27
Two, denied rivals access to user queries or scale uh needed to effectively compete.
41:32
Three, reduce the incentive to invest or innovate in search.
41:37
and four, enabled Google to increase text ad prices without any meaningful competitive restraint, thereby allowing Google to earn monopoly profits to secure the next iteration of exclusive deals through higher revenue share payments.
41:48
These effects did not persist independently.
41:52
Together, they enabled Google to widen the moes and pull up draw bridges to ward off competition. Great analogy.
41:58
Judge Meta attempts to address number two, necessary scale by forcing Google to share various types of data, including Google's search index, but not the actual data from the web pages in the index or the output of Google's page rank algorithm.
42:11
>> Competitors, which explicitly include Genai providers, will get a one-time snapshot, not an ongoing one, and only need to pay Google's marginal cost for providing the information.
42:20
User click and query data showing what results users clicked on.
42:24
competitors will get this data at least twice, but the final number will be determined by the technical committee the court will set up and oversee.
42:32
Do you fully understand like Yeah, that's a very very odd odd like change and and and remedy like I I I guess it like lets people catch up to where things are.
42:45
I it it feels like the remedy is like like there has been this this unfair advantage for Google for years.
42:52
We're letting everyone catch up and then we're creating like a fair race, but we're restarting the race and then everyone can go out and do whatever they want, but but we're not we're not permanently making Google share everything, but we're making a one-time catchup of of like data, I guess. Is that what's going on? I don't know.
43:06
>> Tossing some scraps of data.
43:08
>> That's what it seems like.
43:08
So, we'll continue with Ben Thompson.
43:10
Uh, in addition, Google needs to make its web search results available via syndication at ordinary commercial terms for 5 years capped at 40% of an alternative search engine's annual queries.
43:20
These are all worthwhile remedies.
43:22
The problem, however, is that it is that that's it.
43:27
The Google patronage network.
43:27
So, uh there there is a lot here.
43:30
Um and and he does talk about Bing.
43:33
Uh I'm going to work through the remaining fruits, three fruits backwards.
43:35
Uh first or fourth, uh Judge Meta decided that Google sharing userclick data for ads was both a request too broad and also the court didn't know what data needed to be disclosed.
43:47
So, that one was discarded.
43:49
The third fruit, meanwhile, is getting a lot of attention because Judge Meta said that basically no long that it basically no longer existed.
43:54
Generative AI products are now a competitor to search and are getting plenty of funding.
43:59
This is what we talked about earlier.
44:01
Um, very interesting to see that there is a lot of competition there.
44:05
Uh, in early 2023 when the new Bing with generative AI search, OpenAI, Sam Alman, told uh Ben Thompson in a techy interview, I think it's fabulous for both of us.
44:14
I think there's so much upside for both of us here.
44:17
We're going to discover what these new models can do.
44:19
But if we're sitting on a lethargic search monopoly and had to think about a world where this was going to be a real challenge to the way that monetization of this works and new ad units and maybe even temporary downward pressure, I would not feel great about that.
44:31
Uh do you know what that lethargic search monopoly does feel great about?
44:37
Being able to keep the fruits of its anti-competitive actions because OpenAI exists. It's crazy.
44:44
Anyway, uh that leaves one point in the Apple connection.
44:47
Judge Meta admits that a ban on Google payments for search placement would have an impact on the market.
44:52
The rationale for a payment plan payment ban is straightforward.
44:55
It would pry open the market to competition.
44:56
And we talked about this a little bit earlier.
44:59
Um and yet, Judge Meta declined because of the harm ending payments would cause to recipients of those payments, leading to a list of downstream effects.
45:08
quotes from the opinion lost competition and innovation from small developers in the browser market.
45:13
Fewer products and less product innovation from Apple apparently they don't have enough money otherwise that is a funny funny conclusion.
45:19
Higher mobile phone prices and less innovative phone features.
45:23
Uh Judge Meta further argued that the ultimate outcome would harm consumer welfare and that was that the entire section was in fact a total endorsement of the Google approach uh Ben described in friendly Google and Enemy Remedies.
45:37
Yeah, this this uh this is great.
45:40
The cleverness uh from Ben, the cleverness of Google strategy was their focus on making friends instead of enemies, thus motivating Apple in particular to not even try.
45:48
Tech company, particularly advertising based ones, famously generate huge amounts of consumer surplus.
45:54
Yes, Google makes a lot of money showing you ads, but even at a $300 billion plus run rate, the company is surely generating far more value for consumers than it is capturing.
46:03
That is in itself some degree of defense for the company.
46:06
I should note much of uh much as standard oil brought light to every level of society.
46:11
What is notable about these contractual agreements though is how Google has been generating surplus for everyone else in the tech industry.
46:17
Maybe this is a good thing.
46:19
It's certainly good for Mosilla which gets around 80% of its revenue from its Google deal.
46:22
It has been good for device makers commoditized by Android who have an opportunity for scraps of profit.
46:28
It has certainly been profitable for Apple, which has seen its high margin services revenue skyrocket thanks in part to the $20 billion per year of pure profit it gets from Google without needing to make any level of commensurate investment.
46:43
>> So what Ben actually recommended >> and and one more line here from from an old um from from Judge Meta, he says, "The revenue share payments shape the market for general search services in Google's favor.
46:53
They provide an incredibly strong incentive for the ecosystem to not do anything.
46:56
They effectively make the ecosystem resistant to change >> and their net effect is to basically freeze the ecosystem in place.
47:03
Apple's like why would like we could compete in search but why would we if we can get 20 billion a year and the device manufacturers they say like I mean technically they could create a new search engine or or new intelligence but we could just get a revenue share from from Google.
47:20
from Google. There was a I I feel like there was a dust up uh back in the Steve Jobs era over Siri and whether Siri counted as a search engine and where the Siri project would go because at a certain point search had become so well defined in terms of the technology that
47:40
you need to actually build a search engine that Apple could do it similar to training a foundation model now like it's something that uh if you have the money and you have the talent you can just do it and there are a number of companies that have done it. Um the
47:50
Um the problem is the distribution.
47:52
Like there are other search engines out there uh duck.
47:55
go but the the problem is actually getting the aggregation of everyone actually showing up and getting the flywheel and getting the uh and making it making it making it a default.
48:04
And Apple has the ability to make something a default but uh you're basically paying them off to not go and build their own search engine.
48:12
Um and uh and yeah, it's this like there there's there's this tension.
48:17
Um anyway, uh Ben Thompson recommended that Judge Rup Meta do the following uh back when he was writing about this case earlier.
48:26
Ben said, "This is why ultimately I am comfortable with the implications of my framework and why I think the answer to the remedy question is an injunction against Google making any sort of payments or revenue share for search.
48:39
If you're a monopoly, you don't get to extend your advantage with contracts. Period.
48:44
Now, do most favored nation clauses.
48:47
Um, more broadly, we tend to think of monopolies as being mean.
48:52
The problem with aggregators is that they have the temptation to be too nice.
48:56
It has been very profitable to be Google's friend.
48:58
I think consumers and Google are better off if the company has a few more enemies.
49:06
So, basically, don't pay Apple at all. What will happen? Apple becomes an enemy.
49:13
Apple partners up with a different search engine, builds their own, creates more competition, maybe ad prices on Google go down, maybe there's more consumer surplus.
49:21
I think that's kind of what Ben's uh, you know, initial take was.
49:26
Um, but Judge Meta disagreed. >> Well, yeah.
49:29
I mean, it's interesting because if you take away you make it so that Google can't pay Yeah.
49:33
for for search placements and Mozilla dies and then browsers become less competitive. >> Yeah. Yeah.
49:39
That is the that is the flip side of the coin, which is very interesting.
49:42
Usually, you would you would assume that it's the opposite.
49:43
You would assume that like like they're maintaining this monopoly, but in fact, they're kind of at least they're they're maintaining their search monopoly, but then they're propping up an oligopoly in in browsing because they're like, "Ah, it's okay."
49:54
Because the browsers are just a a window into the actual high profitable, highly profitable search results.
50:00
Uh so, Judge Meta disagreed because Google strategy sharing its monopoly profits was deemed too important to undo. Note the paradox.
50:08
Judge Meta is implicitly admitting that as long as Google is able to pay for search placement, they will in fact continue to dominate search placement.
50:15
After all, continued Google dominance is a prerequisite to Google money continuing to flow, thus avoiding the downstream effects.
50:22
Judge Meta is uh concerned about.
50:25
Um so he did he did allow for the fact that not banning payments might be a mistake.
50:30
So he he says so for now Google will be permitted to pay distributors for default placement.
50:35
There are strong reasons not to jolt the system and to allow market forces to do the work.
50:39
Still, judges must be open to clarifying and reconsidering their decrees in light of changing or unchanging market realities.
50:47
The court is thus prepared to revisit a payment ban or a lesser remedy uh if competition is not substantially restored through the remedies the court does impose.
50:59
>> Anyway, uh let's move on.
50:59
Let's tell you about Vanta.
51:01
Automate compliance, manage risk, improve trust continuously.
51:04
Advantage trust management platform takes the manual work out of your security compliance process and replaces it with continuous automation whether pursuing your first framework or managing a complex program.
51:14
>> This is >> this is Vanta country.
51:16
>> This is Vanta country. Uh Annie says be Nestle. Hire a French CEO.
51:19
Act surprised that the Frenchman is having taboo debaucherous relations on the job.
51:24
Uh their president literally married child.
51:29
Oh, you haven't heard about this?
51:29
So, this was in the Wall Street Journal yesterday and we didn't get to it.
51:31
And then it was also in the Wall Street Journal today. And >> pull it up. Pull up. >> Got to pull it up.
51:36
So, uh, Nestle has fired their CEO following a probe of a romantic relationship with a subordinate.
51:44
>> You can't even marry your childhood teacher in this country. >> No, you can.
51:47
You can you can't have a romantic relationship with a subordinate if you are running Nestle.
51:52
So, Laurent F uh fricche, I I don't know how to pronounce the the X in that name, but uh Laurent is out after just a year at the top job of the food giant, which is trying to sell a number of underperforming businesses.
52:05
Uh they dismiss the CEO with immediate effect following an investigation into an undisclosed romantic relationship with a direct subordin that breached the group's code of conduct.
52:14
The Swiss maker of Nes Cafe coffee, Pyina Pet Food, said Monday that his board had ordered the probe overseen by chairman Paul Bulk and lead independent director Pablo Isla Isla uh with support of an independent outside council.
52:30
This was a necessary decision decision.
52:33
They said Nestle's values and governance are strong foundations of our company and I thank Lauren for his years of service at Nestle.
52:40
Uh they didn't identify the employee in the relationship.
52:43
Um, but it's a dramatic shift in the top echelons of Nestle in little more than a year.
52:49
Uh, he, uh, this CEO, Laurent, had replaced CEO Mark Schneider in a bid to revive growth as the company grappled with sluggish sales.
52:58
Uh, he was the first outsider to run Nestle since 1922.
53:04
Um, he was dismissed because he wasn't seen by his board of directors as a cultural fit.
53:09
Um, the new guy, Laurent, who just got fired, uh, who had previously run businesses at Nestle in Europe and Latin America, took the helm of the company in September of 2024, so less than a year, exactly a year.
53:20
Um, in July, the they were reviewing some u um some underperforming brands.
53:26
Um, but uh let's see where where is it?
53:31
Uh, the company's been so he isn't.
53:33
So basically the he gets fired and then today he's in he's in the news again. Where is it? It's here I think. >> Not again.
53:43
>> He's in again uh with a detail.
53:43
So an anonymous tip led to the fall of Nestle's CEO.
53:48
Nestle's chief executive Laurent Forche.
53:51
Uh his downfall started with an anonymous tip to an internal hotline called Speak Up.
53:57
Uh Laurent was having an intimate relationship.
54:01
>> The this tip initially came through like last year or something.
54:03
episode had been bubbling up. >> Yeah.
54:06
So, um he was having an intimate relationship with a marketing executive who reported to him.
54:11
The tipster reported uh the couple initially denied any relationship.
54:15
It took two investigations, more hotline reports and a letter to the Nestle chairman before the food company acted.
54:21
Uh he didn't request for he didn't respond to requests for comment. Shocking.
54:27
>> Gabe sent a unhinged message in the chat.
54:30
He says, "Who cares about this nonsense?
54:31
the divorce rate is like 50% makes your brand more personable if your CEO is cheating on his >> the qu the real question that we need to dig into is how is Nestle gonna come back from this.
54:41
They got to get Gwennneth Paltro or something to do some viral video.
54:46
>> Um >> yeah playbook now.
54:49
>> So uh the executives's downfall throws Nestle into disarray after the company abruptly ousted its previous chief for underperformance. Mark says it's luron. Lauron. >> Loron. >> It's not Laurent. >> Laurent. Oh, Loron. >> Lauron. Thank you. >> Lauron.
55:06
Wait, how do you pronounce forche?
55:07
Is that is that am I close on that? I don't know. He was nest quickly.
55:12
He was nest quickly escorted out of the office. That's really good.
55:18
Oh, absolute great chatter.
55:18
Uh so uh Lor Luron uh was 60 is 63 years old and was in Nestle since 1986.
55:29
He uh refocused the company on core brand >> 86 >> 86 a 40-year run >> almost >> 40year run.
55:36
He was 24 when he joined the company.
55:39
>> 20 20 years before Tyler was born. >> Yes.
55:42
Put everything in the context.
55:44
>> I mean it's important. >> Wow.
55:46
So, uh, you're telling me that America was founded 220 years before Tyler was born. Wow. >> Wow.
55:55
>> Um, so, uh, the French CEO slashed costs to reinvest in more promising products such as cold coffee and shored up Nestle's executive team, uh, at the company's headquarters on the shores of Lake Geneva in Ve, Switzerland.
56:07
I guess I'm probably mispronouncing that, too.
56:12
Um, his Swiss successor, Philip Navatil, uh, faces the task of arresting a yearslong slide in the company shares and restoring calm after scandals, snafoos, and executive departures.
56:21
Uh, anyway, um, there's more.
56:24
Well, speaking of uh corporate controversy, the Los Angeles Clippers and owner Steve Balmer are accused of paying star Kawhi Leonard $28 million for a no-show job as a way to circumvent the NBA salary cap.
56:42
According to a report by Pablo uh Tori Tori Tori laid out the alleged scandal on his program Pablo Tori Finds Out uh earlier today.
56:51
The show, which features plenty of direct quotes from legal documents, made the argument that Leonard was paid 28 million through a company owned by Balmer to essentially do nothing.
57:03
>> Palmer is accused of using this agreement as a way to pay Leonard more than his contract.
57:06
U which if true is a violation of NBA rules, the entire situation >> I thought there was no tax on tips.
57:12
I thought you could just tip a player if you really like them.
57:15
And wouldn't that not count in the salary cap?
57:19
>> Should have just been tipping.
57:19
I feel like you should have just been tipping >> and that tip tip 28 mil to your favorite player on the team. >> Why not?
57:26
>> No, that uh the entire situation revolves around a now bankrupt company called Aspiration. >> Okay.
57:32
>> Which is a tree planting service funded by Balmer.
57:34
So I think tree planting feels like a little bit disingenuous.
57:38
This was a I think it was a fintech company >> that uh that had sort of an eco angle to it that had been >> it would plant a tree every time you like saved a dollar on the app or something.
57:49
every time you fly, you know, something like that.
57:53
>> Um, and so yeah, Balmer had invested a lot of money in this company and uh, yeah, they were effectively paying him as a spokesperson.
58:03
Um, but uh, in the contract with uh, Kauai's uh, one of Kauai's entities >> stated that Leonard could decline to proceed with any action desired by the company.
58:16
So, uh, he could they could say like, "Hey, you want to do this?"
58:19
And he could say, "Nah, no, no thanks."
58:21
And, uh, he would, his contract was still, you know, valid.
58:26
He wasn't wasn't violating anything.
58:28
>> It is, it is an odd choice.
58:28
I feel like if you're Balmer and you're a multi-billion, I mean, he's one of the richest people in the world, right?
58:37
And your goal is to get someone who you're effectively doing business with on the court. he's basketball player.
58:45
Your goal is to get him an extra $28 million.
58:50
Isn't there a better way to do that?
58:53
Like, isn't there isn't there a way to like set up some fund that's, you know, you cut him in on and then you're actually like doing something economically valuable like >> go invest, get into Founders Fund, growth fund.
59:06
that I mean that that that's one option, but honestly it's like couldn't you just make some calls and get him more Super Bowl ads and get him more like ad deals?
59:14
Like just just make some calls and get and get some like legitimate business like it doesn't seem like that crazy of a number to try and pull together.
59:22
um like somewhat like much more legitimately, you know, like there are probably advertisers out there who would say, "Oh yeah, like we'll we'll pay them a couple million dollars to be like our, you know, the face of our brand."
59:37
>> 20 28 million is a lot though for a company that had only raised a couple hundred million dollars. >> No, no.
59:43
What I'm saying is is that like is it like >> I mean the the question is power at Microsoft to to say, "Hey, we're we're rolling out a new version of Excel and you're going to be the face of the camera.
59:53
New Clippy is going to be Kawaii. >> Awesome.
59:56
>> Little Kauawaii hanging out. >> I love it.
59:58
>> Hanging out, helping you.
59:58
And >> there's got to be some other way to >> Well, the the the way is to actually make him an ambassador for the company.
1:00:06
Like that that the I don't think there's anything illegal about somebody, you know, a basketball player getting a major endorsement deal outside of their team.
1:00:14
But I think the the thing that ticks it off is you know really big number and then uh not doing any not doing they they they weren't able to find any content that Kawaii was in related to aspiration.
1:00:26
So signing this big sort of like >> if you sign a deal with a company to promote them you have to run ads for them.
1:00:33
You have to tell the audience about graphite code review for the age of AI.
1:00:37
Graphite helps teams on GitHub ship higher quality software faster. Get started for free.
1:00:44
They're not always tell you >> they're not paying us to to get around the podcast or salary cap. No way. >> Yeah.
1:00:50
I mean, I read this and I just I was feeling so grateful that we don't have any salary caps in business. >> Yes. Yes. 100%.
1:00:58
>> We wouldn't have been able to retain We wouldn't have been able to retain title.
1:01:00
>> I also I also don't know if I I I don't I don't know that I feel that this story is finished.
1:01:06
It feels like it's viral and there's some allegations.
1:01:09
Um, but I will be reserving my judgment until I hear Steve Balmer in >> Yeah, the Clippers already responded. They said neither Mr.
1:01:18
Balmer nor the Clippers circumvented the salary cap or engaged in any misconduct related to aspiration.
1:01:24
Any contrary assertion is provably false.
1:01:28
>> Yeah, it's like an anonymous inside source from Pablo Toré founds out.
1:01:32
>> I mean, I do think if you care if you if you care about basketball Yeah. and you care about this.
1:01:40
If you're another team, are you not like deeply frustrated?
1:01:44
>> If it's true, it might not be true.
1:01:44
Like they he might have he might have been like, "Yeah, I had a deal. We signed the deal. It was 28 million.
1:01:50
They did not >> they were not very good at planting trees and so they didn't pay me anything and I didn't do any promotion for them.
1:01:59
So yes, there's technically a contract or there could not be a contract.
1:02:01
There could be this this anonymous source just saying like whatever.
1:02:04
I mean it's this is not an anonymous source.
1:02:07
>> It says inside source. Inside source.
1:02:09
>> I mean but he's like a a capital Jouro. >> Pablo Tore. >> Yeah. >> Okay. I don't know. >> Yeah.
1:02:14
I mean he seems >> Is he athletic or something?
1:02:17
>> Pretty legit journalism.
1:02:17
But the funny thing is so Leonard Leonard joined the Clippers on a threeyear $104 million deal in 2019.
1:02:23
Re-upted in 2021 for $176 million and then reuped again in 2024 for a threeyear $149 million extension.
1:02:33
And so the $28 million is like almost like a rounding error in in in all of this.
1:02:39
I mean, it's a big number, but at the same time, like >> would he not have joined the Clippers? >> Yeah.
1:02:44
>> Like would would he have gone somewhere else if he hadn't gotten this? >> Yeah. I I I don't know. Yeah.
1:02:48
Maybe maybe the nature of the salary cap is uh like like there there is more cap space at another at another >> NBA fans in the chat.
1:02:56
Does this piss you off or is this fair game for uh for for Kawhi Leonard to be the face of the faceless face of Aspiration?
1:03:08
>> Yeah, >> Aspiration isn't even around anymore.
1:03:11
They're they're chapter 11.
1:03:12
>> There are plenty of spa there are plenty of uh sports with no salary caps, right?
1:03:16
Where they can just spend as much as possible.
1:03:18
Isn't F1 kind of like that?
1:03:19
>> Maybe maybe Kawaii just paints trees and wanted to put this put this company in the dirt. >> Who knows? Who knows?
1:03:25
Um, anyway, we have massive news from one of our sponsors, Shane Copelan, over at Poly Market.
1:03:33
Poly Market has been given the green light to go live in the United States of America by the CFTC.
1:03:40
Congratulations to Shane >> founder.
1:03:42
>> He has the eagle in his bio or in his name tag and uh that is the most appropriate sound effect for today.
1:03:47
Uh, credit to the commission and staff for their impressive work.
1:03:51
This process has been accomplished in record timing.
1:03:53
Uh fantastic uh fantastic turn of events. What a story.
1:04:00
What Mike Wer's there in the reply saying ban to approval in three and a half years is an absolute speedrun.
1:04:07
Uh very very difficult to to get new things done in the government generally is very tricky and uh they figured it out.
1:04:16
So congrats to everyone over there.
1:04:17
Um and if you're tracking if you're tracking any any news, head over to Poly Market to check it out.
1:04:22
We we of course have Poly Market powering our ticker down there.
1:04:26
Uh anyway, I want your review of the new Aston Martin Vanquish.
1:04:30
Uh particularly this one.
1:04:30
This is your favorite colorway, right? Green over tan. >> Yes.
1:04:36
>> So, it's green over tan.
1:04:36
It's finished in historic California Sage over 21in liquid silver wheels. It features a 5.
1:04:41
2 L V12 twin turbo with 835 horsepower and 1,01 new meters of torque.
1:04:49
I absolutely love the Vanquish. Yes.
1:04:52
I think I want to pick one up when they're half off in two years.
1:04:57
>> You think there'll be a depreciation?
1:04:58
>> Uh I think this is like a half a million dollar car right now feels like it's going to be a4 million car in a couple years. >> What? Why do you think Yeah.
1:05:05
Why do you think Aston Martin depreciate so much faster than Ferraris?
1:05:13
>> Is it the limited run nature? What's driving him?
1:05:15
Uh one big issue over the last few years has been the uh uh lack of James Bond movies internal uh internal electronics have been extremely dated.
1:05:26
So until the last two years they were extremely dated.
1:05:28
So you buy >> is that true for Ferrari?
1:05:31
>> Is Ferrari known for like amazing CarPlay integrations?
1:05:34
>> I mean not not to the same degree.
1:05:34
I mean if you buy a 2021 Aston Martin it feels like sitting in a car from like 15 years ago.
1:05:41
And people just don't like that, right?
1:05:42
Like I've looked at them and I'm like if I'm driving this around LA, >> can you just rip all that out and get one of those aftermarket things with like 20 12 sub 12in subwoofers in the back and >> it's kind of it's kind of janky.
1:05:54
>> I think you could put it on spinners and uh take it to the Pimp My Ride shop with Exhibit and throw a throw a TV in the front. I don't know.
1:06:01
Or or you could pull off like you know what the cops do where they put the full laptop next to them.
1:06:06
Have you seen that where you pull up next to a police officer and they have the full laptop >> and you're like, "Wait, you're pulling somebody over using >> their phone and you're on your laptop."
1:06:15
Oh, >> you're watching TBPN. >> Yeah.
1:06:17
Little hypocritical, don't you think? >> Um. >> Oh. Well, >> but uh >> Yes. Why? Yeah. Why?
1:06:24
I think this will change too many of them or something.
1:06:30
>> Lawrence Stroll is out to win in the category, taking it very seriously.
1:06:34
They've they've um upped their um manufacturers like guarantees now.
1:06:38
They've made it uh much easier decision. >> Um we'll see. We'll see how these do.
1:06:41
Uh I still think uh they lack the kind of like cult um the scale of the cult following that that obviously Porsche has.
1:06:51
But I think in this case I I like this colorway.
1:06:54
I think uh green on tan green on tan uh the meta uh it's timeless, but I think the meta is is fading.
1:07:01
And uh brown on brown is brown on brown.
1:07:04
Yeah, you we saw a brown on brown on brown Porsche at the >> at the gym yesterday.
1:07:08
Jumped out of the car to go shake the person down and >> tried to made it made a made a bid. >> You made a bid.
1:07:15
>> Well, I just said, "Would you sell me your car?" >> You said that.
1:07:17
Oh, I didn't realize that's why you went said no. That's hilarious.
1:07:21
>> But uh Brown on Brown.
1:07:21
The most bullish catalyst for this vanquish going uh uh asmmptoic and going into the stratosphere in terms of price.
1:07:28
Aston Martin is of course partnered with public. com. >> That's right.
1:07:34
>> And so all the public.
1:07:34
com fans, the investors who take it seriously because they have multi-asset investing, industryleading yields, trusted by millions. All the public.
1:07:41
com fans will buy Aston Martins now.
1:07:45
>> And public is a sponsor of the US Open and some tennis players.
1:07:48
So, us is Aston Martin paying in public to That's a good sound. Smell it.
1:07:54
Oh, >> I don't think I don't think you're supposed >> You're definitely supposed to smell it.
1:07:59
>> That's rule number one of opening a ball of tennis and tennis ball.
1:08:02
>> Going to kill me, John.
1:08:02
Um, anyways, these are fantastic.
1:08:06
>> We got to we got to get it.
1:08:06
I mean, we we almost have room for for court here.
1:08:10
>> Now, now, are those actually tennis balls or could those be used for some of the less popular sports, the pedal and the and the pickle ball?
1:08:16
Oh, I think I think it would be wrong to use these for anything but tennis.
1:08:20
>> Do does Padal or Pickle have like this different ball?
1:08:24
>> Pickle ball does play. >> What does Podell use? >> I don't know.
1:08:28
Anyway, um thank you to the public.
1:08:32
>> Podell Padell have have higher pressure, thicker fell, slightly larger size. >> Okay, interesting. Um well, >> sorry.
1:08:40
Standard tennis balls are are um pedal is smaller, I guess. Anyways, >> yes.
1:08:46
Well, uh, uh, Clara is going public.
1:08:49
Uh, and Eli, uh, says >> friendly IPO in the >> That's a good one.
1:08:55
Uh, says, "Internest in this IPO, but $35 seems like a lot to pay all at once.
1:09:00
Would it be possible to split this up into four interestf free payments?" Uh, of course there is.
1:09:04
Um, this is what basic basic capital is doing.
1:09:11
They're basically >> Oh, they are >> leverage to the to the people. your 401k. >> Yeah. Yeah. Pay later.
1:09:16
Um it's very interesting. Yeah.
1:09:19
I mean, we talked to Max Levchin and a firm.
1:09:20
We've talked to Sebastian and Clara.
1:09:21
Uh and uh a firm's doing very well.
1:09:25
So, that probably bodess well for CLA going out.
1:09:27
At the same time, it's oddly competitive.
1:09:30
It It's kind of shocking to me that there's that there's such a duopoly here and and one company hasn't run away with it.
1:09:39
like Shopify has really compounded and compounded and compounded and and uh and really defeated a lot of the other e-commerce platforms, but in terms of the the payment processors, it's been much more igopolistic.
1:09:49
Maybe it's just because the uh the dynamic of the buyer wants to bid the two against each other.
1:09:56
So like the Stripe aden dynamic kind of comes to Clara and a firm.
1:09:58
Um but both really big companies.
1:10:02
We'll get to see the financials and uh and dig into CLA as they go out.
1:10:06
CLA's total revenue in 2024 was 2. 8 billion. I'm 29 right now.
1:10:12
Uh the firm's 2024 revenue was 2. 3 billion.
1:10:16
>> Wow, they're really close.
1:10:17
>> CLA made a very narrow profit in 2024.
1:10:20
$21 million for like >> that. Love to see it.
1:10:25
>> Um and uh so yeah, they they've been cutting.
1:10:27
Uh but uh >> yeah, >> I mean credit to Clara for for getting to the scale while competing against uh Max Lejin. It is crazy.
1:10:37
>> That is like a night nightmare uh nightmare competitor.
1:10:40
>> There's also something very very odd about the the Clara and Adyan are both European companies, correct?
1:10:45
And they both compete with like Stripe and and a firm these like sort of PayPal mafiaesque Silicon Valley firms that have been doing it the very Silicon Valley way.
1:10:57
Like there's this odd dynamic that's in both both companies. >> Y um >> Yeah.
1:11:02
So, one of the things cutting into Clarno's profitability is their uh just like credit losses.
1:11:07
They lost uh half a billion dollars last year, which is more than they spent on sales and marketing. >> Interesting.
1:11:14
And is that just because people sign up for CLA, they do the pineal pay later thing and they just bail.
1:11:20
>> Like they buy a burrito and they say, "So, yeah."
1:11:22
>> Does that not get sent to collections?
1:11:22
I imagine it does, but eventually it doesn't get >> Well, I think part of their value, Wasn't there part of their value prop is that it's not tied to your >> Okay.
1:11:30
It's like completely optional to pay it.
1:11:32
Like it has to hurt your credit score, right?
1:11:34
I imagine like I I I mean maybe it goes into some sort of database, but uh the idea that you could just go around and use buy now pay later willy-nilly and never pay your later Bart uh does not seem does not seem sustainable.
1:11:48
Uh anyway, if you're looking to slice up a bunch of financial data, do it on Julius.
1:11:53
What analysis do you want to run?
1:11:55
Chat with your data and get expert level insights in seconds.
1:12:00
It's the AI data and analyst that works for you.
1:12:03
Used by Princeton, BCG, and Zapier.
1:12:07
>> Clara, get on Julius before you go public. >> For sure. >> Thanks, Slater. >> For sure.
1:12:11
Uh, let's go to this tier list by Mert Helios. dev. He's been on the show. Good friend.
1:12:15
Uh, he says, "A city tier list that will trigger everyone, but is true.
1:12:19
S tier is Moscow and Tokyo. A tier is NYC.
1:12:24
B tier is Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Singapore, Hong Kong, Istanbul, uh, St.
1:12:30
Petersburg, Amsterdam, San Francisco, Koala, Lur, and Austin.
1:12:32
Ctier is Paris, Berlin, Lisbon, Seoul, Chicago, and Rome. Dt tier is Los Angeles. Come on, Mert.
1:12:40
You're doing us dirty here.
1:12:42
Of course, >> I think that I I think that LA is definitely a Dtier city.
1:12:46
I I love living in Los Angeles County, but the city >> the city itself is mid.
1:12:56
>> Yeah, we should do a We should do our own tier list.
1:12:58
Can you wipe that down, Tyler?
1:13:00
And >> yeah, start working on a tier list.
1:13:02
>> Just just draw up the the the S, A, B, C, D, F, and uh and we'll fill in them. We'll throw them out.
1:13:09
Um uh this is so funny because one of the first replies, SF, not even on the list, is accurate.
1:13:18
An SF is on the list in B tier. Reading comprehension. Not quite there, Sam. But good job.
1:13:23
I like that you have putting flag putting Austin above places like Paris and Berlin.
1:13:32
>> It's a good m like of like >> No, this is the perfect post. It is a great post.
1:13:36
Like you'll get people that agree and people that disagree and it's perfectly controversial. >> Yep.
1:13:41
Um, uh, anyways, I I got a text from a financial technology expert that says, "Most BNPL providers don't report to bureaus because of bureau systems haven't been able to use the data intelligently.
1:13:54
They've tried to fix, but they're a cluster F."
1:13:56
Uh, so that's interesting.
1:14:00
>> Clar is like, "Hey, we got a lot of I mean, the thing that Clara can obviously do is say like if somebody buys a burrito and doesn't pay for it, they can just like not work with that customer.
1:14:10
So then when you try and hit it the second time, you don't get a chance. >> Yeah.
1:14:13
And say most consumers would be like, I want to keep having options. Probably >> pay it back. >> Yeah.
1:14:20
Um well, uh there was a timeline was in turmoil.
1:14:24
A little battle between the scrot goat and Nikita beer. Very interesting.
1:14:29
Nikita is having a hilarious time on X.
1:14:30
I feel like >> he's on an absolute role.
1:14:31
I'm so happy that I'm so happy that he he took uh >> it's really the best.
1:14:36
It's just the best like narrative art.
1:14:40
>> It's basically poster and residence. >> Yeah.
1:14:43
>> But then gets to mold the platform. >> Totally.
1:14:46
>> And I mean I' I I think I I've been having a good time.
1:14:48
I haven't noticed any like really negative changes.
1:14:49
It seems like there's some intractable problems. >> Dude, it's great.
1:14:53
Did you notice the changes they made on on video?
1:14:55
Like they totally updated the UI on >> video. Oh, yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.
1:14:59
With the buttons down at the bottom. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. That's great.
1:15:01
Um >> uh let's do the tier list now.
1:15:04
My god, this this account though is rocket, you know, actually adding followers now for getting in this war.
1:15:12
And this is Nikita's advice.
1:15:14
Remember he said if you're a tiny account on Twitter, Yeah.
1:15:18
the best thing you can do is go and pick a fight with the biggest account you can find.
1:15:22
>> And that's exactly what this guy's doing. It's so good.
1:15:23
So yeah, Scrotgoat says like uh I have I have eight followers and they're all bots and uh and the algorithms keeping my reach from being like, you know, uh like I'm not getting enough reach.
1:15:38
The only way to get reach is via comments.
1:15:40
Nine followers is a byproduct of no reach.
1:15:44
And Nikita says, "Maybe the scrot goat is not the best name for your account." No, man.
1:15:48
Like if anything, it's an al-timer.
1:15:50
People should follow it just for the name. And uh and it worked.
1:15:52
The scrot goat said the truth always wins.
1:15:57
Nikita beer got 600 likes and I checked the account had a couple hundred followers.
1:16:01
So we might be looking at a future future Hall of Fame poster. Okay, Tyler.
1:16:06
Uh let's uh let's do the tier list.
1:16:09
I want to go first and then you can you can do your tier list.
1:16:11
Uh maybe we can just do a little line down the center.
1:16:15
Can you do a line down the center?
1:16:17
like uh after the city tier list like a little bit further.
1:16:20
A little bit further so that uh we can put mine. Okay. So um yeah, that's fine.
1:16:24
So uh I I'll I'll start with F tier. I'll agree with Mert.
1:16:30
I'll put London in F tier just like Mert did.
1:16:32
Um and uh Mert also has Toronto and Brussels. He has it in Dtier.
1:16:39
I'll I'll leave Toronto and Brussels in Ftier as well.
1:16:41
Uh so for me, I think we're good. Yeah.
1:16:46
Uh, so to uh, so put Toronto and Brussels in F tier.
1:16:52
Then for then for LA, >> have you been to Toronto and Brussels? >> Yeah. Terrible.
1:16:55
Uh, then Los Angeles, he put it in D tier. I'll actually go S tier. I love LA. It's fantastic. I'll put LA there.
1:17:02
Then uh, in C tier, he has Paris, Berlin, Lisbon, Seoul, and Rome.
1:17:09
I would, this is a little controversial.
1:17:10
I would put those in F tier.
1:17:10
So, I'd put Paris, Berlin, Lisbon, Seoul.
1:17:12
So, Paris, Berlin, Lisbon, Seoul, and Rome. All in F tier. Then, uh, for in B tier.
1:17:20
In B tier, he put San Francisco and Austin. I put those in S tier. So, put those up there.
1:17:29
Uh, and then he put Dubai in B tier.
1:17:33
Uh, this is going to be a little controversial, but I would put Dubai in F tier. Yeah.
1:17:37
Uh, he also put Hong Kong in B tier. >> Sensing a pattern.
1:17:42
>> I think that's F tier.
1:17:42
Let's put Hong Kong down there.
1:17:44
And then also uh Istanbul. I'd put that in F tier.
1:17:46
Uh, and then New York City. He put it in A tier. I'd put it in S tier.
1:17:51
Uh, and then also I' I'd also add uh Phoenix in S tier and uh Philadelphia. Just put Philly. And then uh San Diego.
1:18:01
I mean, have you been to San Diego? Absolutely. Put an S tier. And then Dallas.
1:18:06
Let's put Dallas in S tier. Um, and you got Chicago. Oh, you missed Chicago.
1:18:13
Chicago's obviously S tier. Okay, cool. Yeah, we're good.
1:18:15
Uh, and then Moscow and Tokyo. He had them in S tier. >> Let's go Dtier. Let's go Dtier. Dtier. No, no, not S. D.
1:18:24
>> Tyler, what are you doing? What are you doing? >> Dtier. Moscow and Tokyo. We'll give him a bone.
1:18:28
And so, this is kind of like how I think of the city's tier list, but >> how your view of the world broadly.
1:18:34
>> This is kind of my world view right now.
1:18:36
Uh, and so yeah, I mean you can see some pattern.
1:18:39
>> You're probably the next time your passport expires, you probably won't even renew it, right?
1:18:42
Like what do I need a passport for?
1:18:44
Why would I >> I have I have a a long list of S tier cities. >> I could be in Philly.
1:18:51
>> I could be in Philly right now Tokyo.
1:18:52
>> Why would I Why would I go to London London? >> London Paris.
1:18:58
>> I could Rome >> and I could be in Baltimore.
1:19:02
The London of of Pennsylvania.
1:19:02
Wait, the London of the East, >> Baltimore, Maryland. >> Uh, yeah.
1:19:07
Anyway, uh, what about you, Jordy?
1:19:11
Do you want to do you want to take a crack?
1:19:12
>> I don't think I I don't think I can.
1:19:13
>> You don't think you can outdo my dear? >> I don't think I can.
1:19:16
I I don't think my my only controversial I mean, I don't >> Oh, we got we got some questions in the chat.
1:19:21
How are we feeling about Charlotte, North Carolina? >> S tier for sure. >> I think it's S tier.
1:19:25
Yeah, Charlotte is probably S tier.
1:19:27
It's part of the Isn't it part of the research triangle?
1:19:31
It's one of the greatest places to New Orleans. How do we miss Nola? >> Nola in the S tier.
1:19:38
New Orleans is definitely S tier.
1:19:40
Oh, Mark says it's not S tier.
1:19:43
Maybe we got to move it down to A tier. I don't know.
1:19:45
Nola, it's not that good.
1:19:48
>> That the lonely lonely A tier city. >> Yeah. No. Okay. Anyway, >> good stuff. >> Yeah.
1:19:55
And then but also admit that that LA is S tier in the in that it's sunny >> that we're here >> hundreds hundreds of days a year >> and it's absolutely stunning but but functionally it's a terrible city. >> Here's a tough one.
1:20:10
Where would you put Pyongyang?
1:20:15
>> People love Pyongyang P. >> Love PIF.
1:20:17
>> The Pyongyang investment fund. >> Yep.
1:20:20
>> Um >> highly authoritarian.
1:20:20
Some people are into that these days. limited food option.
1:20:26
>> I don't think you could put Pyongyang in S tier, >> but I think it's definitely within the in the top.
1:20:32
>> Do you remember when uh when 4chan tried to send Justin Bieber to Pyongyang? Do you see this? >> Oh, this is amazing.
1:20:37
This is like one of the greatest like the internet does something funny.
1:20:39
So, Justin Bieber put up a poll on online saying, I will pick my next tour date.
1:20:45
I'm going on a world tour.
1:20:46
I'll let the fans vote and if the fans vote for a particular city, I'll go to that city.
1:20:51
And so of course the fans voted for North Korea.
1:20:54
Then you got to go to North Korea.
1:20:56
And it was like a classic lesson in like do not let the internet decide anything.
1:21:02
>> You could pick any you could >> Yeah, you could pick any city. Suggest any city.
1:21:05
And he was like, I'll go where the fans want me to go.
1:21:09
>> Where do I have the most fans?
1:21:09
Of course, the fans were like, "Go to North Korea."
1:21:12
And he had to be like, "I'm not going to North Korea."
1:21:14
Uh, anyway, thank you for doing the city tier list.
1:21:16
Now, let me tell you about Turbo Puffer. Search every bite.
1:21:20
Search every bite. serverless and full text search built from first principles and object storage fast 10x cheaper and extremely scalable if you're >> you want to be like cursor you want to be like notion you want to be like >> website that can we pull that up again I
1:21:35
I look at this website >> this is honestly the biggest reason why I was excited to partner with them uh was you have to go to their website it's so beautifully designed and it's so the layout is awesome uh and it's a it's >> officially puffing We're puffing, baby. >> And you should, too. >> And you should, too. >> Yeah.
1:21:52
Go check out Turbo Puffer.
1:21:52
Um, anyway, let's move on to another Nikita post. Yep.
1:21:58
Nikita says, >> Nikita's uh apparently gets a lot of DMs from people that gets their accounts suspended for spam.
1:22:04
They say, "I wasn't spamming.
1:22:07
I was just commenting the same thing on every post, regardless of the context."
1:22:12
Uh, Elizabeth Holmes says, "Dear Nikita, rumors swirl that my account's been hijacked for a crypto rugpole. Not true. It hasn't. Please don't suspend me.
1:22:21
Unless I start shilling a coin for then it's surely compromised.
1:22:24
Thank you for your attention to this matter. >> We got to know. >> We got to know.
1:22:28
I mean, there's she's mixing a lot of stuff in here.
1:22:31
>> So, my theory is that it's the husband.
1:22:34
I don't think that I think it's hard to get access to a phone and post from prison.
1:22:39
We should have Martin Skrey on again to discuss like the theories behind what's going on here because >> could she could she get a printed out like you know could she get a hundred posts a day delivered to her that are just like basically fan mail letters >> and then she could write back >> replies absolutely >> letters one by one.
1:22:56
>> What are the time stamps on here? 2 hours ago 8:45 a. m.
1:22:58
It feels like it's too quick of a turnaround.
1:23:00
At the same time, there have been reports of uh of like mob bosses, gang members in prison who get access to cell phones that get smuggled in.
1:23:11
I mean, all sorts of stuff gets smuggled into prisons.
1:23:13
They're not the most secure places.
1:23:14
Uh they're designed to keep people in, not necessarily keep everything out.
1:23:18
So, they bribe someone, they get something in.
1:23:21
And there was a case where I believe in LA there was a gang member who was calling hits on people from prison like organizing crimes from inside the clink. So not very good.
1:23:32
And yes SBF did do the pod from prison.
1:23:35
I'm not sure how they did that.
1:23:37
It might have been over the prison.
1:23:39
>> No, but he was he got in trouble the prison for doing that.
1:23:41
>> Yeah, but I don't actually know the rules.
1:23:43
Like are you allowed to do pods in prison over the cell phone?
1:23:45
Like I I don't Can you record that?
1:23:47
It feels like building I know that after you go to prison, you can't sell your life rights.
1:23:52
Like you can't make a bunch of money off of selling the rights to your movie or your book.
1:23:56
Like I I I think it just doesn't work like that.
1:23:58
I actually don't know enough about it.
1:23:59
We should we should dig in much more and do a whole deep dive.
1:24:02
Tyler, did you have something else you wanted you want to share on SPF thing?
1:24:06
Cuz I mean he had a laptop so I >> full laptop but was he posting too? Is he still posting?
1:24:13
>> I >> I don't know if he was it it like the the novelty kind of like wore off for sure.
1:24:17
Um, either way, uh, Elizabeth Holmes got to clean up her SEO results.
1:24:23
She's got to get her brand mentioned in Chat GBT. No, she doesn't.
1:24:24
But serious businesses do, and serious businesses need to use profound.
1:24:29
You need to get your brand mentioned in ChatGpt.
1:24:31
Reach millions of consumers who are using AI to discover new products and brands.
1:24:36
More important than ever in the age of agentic commerce.
1:24:38
What's coming is a lot of consumers buying a lot of things through discovering through LLM.
1:24:42
You need to know how you're showing up and Profound helps you do that.
1:24:47
So, uh, you know, this was, uh, this is crazy.
1:24:52
Morning Brew has some, uh, a highlight from The Athletic, uh, Stream East, the world's largest illegal sports streaming platform shut down in a sting.
1:25:01
They had 80 unauthorized domains, 136 million average monthly visits, and 1.
1:25:07
6 billion total visits in the last year.
1:25:09
The digital equivalent of catching black.
1:25:13
>> Whoever writes for Morning Brew. Fantastic. Fantastic.
1:25:15
Um, so, uh, >> Stream East was, uh, the bane of, uh, Dana White UFC, I'm sure. Yeah.
1:25:23
So, a lot of, uh, a lot of the pay-per-views were were streamed over here.
1:25:27
And this, I I would assume that this platform alone, you know, accounted for >> a billion plus of like lost revenue for the UFC.
1:25:39
Has been operating for years.
1:25:41
anybody from anywhere in the world could just tune in and watch a pay-per-view.
1:25:45
Um, >> and uh I think that uh this was like a game of whack-a-ole.
1:25:48
like they had all these different domains they'd be buying every every time they spin up a new domain, they have one getting shut down and and and people are just like, you know, um I wonder if there this is this is oddly timed because if you think about it, like what's what's coming in the next couple weeks that would be illegally streamed that's not going to be publicly streamed that everyone's going to want to watch?
1:26:14
>> It's obviously the Antichrist lectures in San Francisco Peter Teal's hosting. Yeah.
1:26:18
>> So they shut that down.
1:26:18
They shut down this because people were going to go there with a phone and live stream it, but you know, everything's off the record, right?
1:26:24
What do you think, Tyler?
1:26:26
Would you be tuning in on Streamies, breaking the rules? >> Yeah.
1:26:28
So, like I I personally have a I have a couple guys there who are going I have a plug, you know? Oh, yeah.
1:26:32
My personal streaming, but Yeah.
1:26:35
>> Oh, so they're going to like FaceTime you and you can just watch >> Well, just be sitting in their pocket reveal. >> Yeah.
1:26:43
Um I was trying to think of like uh like why am I not familiar with this?
1:26:48
Why am I this is the first time I'm hearing about Stream East?
1:26:50
It's because like well I don't watch sports at all and I uh and I don't and I can't think of anything that I would want to watch that's behind I've never bought a pay-per-view in my life.
1:27:02
>> The first literally the first >> freeload off of Rob. >> Yep. I fre of you for sure. >> Nice dude. Nice. >> For sure.
1:27:08
And and other than that I mean are there other are there was their entire business just >> like UFC piracy? Like what else?
1:27:18
>> All sports >> because there's people that don't have cable. >> Oh, so the NFL game. Yes.
1:27:20
So like I I also don't really watch sports, but at at school in college, >> stream is like >> I mean everyone knows stream like that's like basically the default rather than I mean some people have like the cable equivalent or something.
1:27:36
>> But yeah, every UFC, every uh football game.
1:27:39
>> Um >> and they were monetizing like crazy, right?
1:27:42
Cuz they have 136 million visits.
1:27:44
Imagine how much sports betting like signups they can pull a list of all your friends who are using Streamies so we can contact the authorities and and make sure that they >> let's include them in the sting.
1:27:52
>> Yeah, let's get uh they owe Dana White money and uh we're going to collect. Okay.
1:27:57
Uh let's make Dana, you know, I have a funny story.
1:27:59
Uh I had a buddy in college who uh was very much into watching football, >> did not have cable, and he uh and I go over to his like Harvard dorm room and he pulls up uh a website and he's like, I can watch sports on here.
1:28:14
where I can watch my Raiders.
1:28:15
Uh even though they're not even like like the Raiders game is so local to I guess they were in Oakland at the time.
1:28:23
Uh that like even if you paid you'd have to be on like the highest tier of NFL Sunday ticket to get access to a cross country game.
1:28:28
Like you could like if you were if you were at school in Boston, you could get like Nessen, the local regional sports network, New New England Sports Network, and you could see the Patriots games.
1:28:40
Uh, and then the local news channel or the local sports channel would show you like the local games.
1:28:44
Like you could probably see like the I don't know the New York, what is it, the Giants, like they'd play and like they'd be local.
1:28:49
So they'd be played, but you couldn't just go see the Raiders unless you paid the highest tier. It was really expensive. No one wanted to pay.
1:28:55
And so he pull he gets out his laptop, he pulls up this website and he's like, I can watch the Raiders on this website.
1:29:02
Do you know what website it was? Justin. tv. >> No way. >> Yeah.
1:29:06
And and the f it was the funniest thing because he he explains it to me.
1:29:11
He's like, "Yeah, anyone can go on Justin TV. This is pre- Twitch.
1:29:14
>> They're saying we should we should arrest Tyler's friends for for using streamies." >> Yeah. Yeah. Can you >> Yeah. Guys, no show tomorrow.
1:29:20
We're >> Can you invite them?
1:29:22
Tell them we're hiring like tons of interns and they pay really high and like they got to get out here. Just it's a one week.
1:29:29
>> We'll arrest we'll do a citizen's arrest on the street.
1:29:32
>> Shut it in support of Dana White.
1:29:32
But so so my buddy pulls up Justin TV and is like, "Yeah, >> apparently Mark Mark in the chat says LeBron uses Stream East."
1:29:38
I guess he was was he like I feel like I remember this.
1:29:42
Was he like >> Oh, I've seen this.
1:29:45
>> Well, a lot of people do this.
1:29:45
Oh, F1 was big on Streamies. Yeah, that makes sense.
1:29:48
Uh, a lot of people uh do it just because it's a hassle to figure out how to do the pay how to pay.
1:29:53
>> Trey says, "I would never watch Stream East because then I wouldn't see the local ads."
1:29:56
That's an advertising industry. >> Thank you. >> Thank you, Trey. >> Thank you, Trey.
1:30:00
Thank you for supporting big television advertising.
1:30:04
>> So my buddy's watching Justin TV.
1:30:04
Justin TV had all sorts of crazy because anyone could spin up a stream so people would do all sorts of crazy stuff.
1:30:09
The gaming thing was the first intersection of like oh wow this is legal and growing and it's a niche that no one else is catering to.
1:30:19
like G4 TV existed, which was a TV channel just for video games, and it was like scripted content and talk shows and interview shows.
1:30:26
They had a whole bunch of stuff, but uh but there wasn't that much video game content.
1:30:30
So, like like they eventually pivoted into Twitch and figured out that that was the right thing.
1:30:35
But before they pivoted, Justin TV was playing whack-a-ole with all the scammers, all the illegal streams, and it was like a huge hassle.
1:30:42
And of course, you get adult content, all sorts of stuff.
1:30:43
Um, but the >> and it's a uh interesting challenge for a platform like that that's trying to bootstrap itself and get a lot of content and users because that's some of the most in- demand content is like an NFL game.
1:30:56
>> Look at the visits on this.
1:30:56
Stream East had 136 million average.
1:31:00
>> We got we got to take we got to knock out these these illegal streams.
1:31:02
But at the same time, >> isn't that more than all of F1 combined or something like that?
1:31:08
>> Yeah, I think they get >> Wasn't F1 at like 100 million or something like that?
1:31:11
No, they they get like a few million live viewers in the US >> and then and then an incremental hundred million on Stream East.
1:31:18
Uh and so yeah, they should be selling those ads.
1:31:20
Hey, if you're putting your logo on a F1 car, it's going to be seen on Stream East, so you got to pay up.
1:31:26
Uh anyway, this should should we should we pull up this video? This hot mic moment.
1:31:32
>> Uh yes, but I want I want to close out.
1:31:34
So I so my buddy is like Justin TV is explaining to me and he's like he describes it to me as like there's just a guy named Justin and he has a website where you can watch this stuff and didn't have this conception and it kind of was that way but really it's like
1:31:47
there was a team behind it and Emma Shear was there and a bunch of other >> probably wasn't Justin and EMTT >> no at that point they probably had 10 or 20 people but there was this there was this moment in like 2007208 where like people didn't realize that websites were companies that had
1:32:02
organizations and stocks and like could become like massive like Facebook like like the in 2005 when people were first introduced to Facebook they were like oh it's like some kid at Harvard like put up a website >> Justin was so early >> yeah well if you're trying to build the
1:32:17
next great streaming platform do it legally and do it using linear linear is a purpose-built tool for planning and building products meet the system for modern software development streamline issues projects and product road mapaps start building on linear uh let's pull up the hot mic moment on CTV. First, First, truth zone.
1:32:35
Is this real or is this uh is this dubbed and faked?
1:32:37
Like this says this was picked up by Bloomberg. This seems crazy.
1:32:41
I I would like to know if this is real, but let's play it and then we'll decide if it's real. >> Yep. Bloomberg confirmed.
1:32:51
>> Okay, so this is Cing talking about Wait, we can't see the subtitles. Okay, start it over. >> Yeah. What are the subtitles? >> No, they're here.
1:33:07
>> Andrew, what's he saying?
1:33:09
>> These days, 70 years old.
1:33:09
Earlier people rarely lived, but these days 70 years. You're still a child. >> You're still a child. >> It's amazing. Putin speaks inaudible. >> He's walking.
1:33:23
How are they picking this up on this microphone? This is so rough.
1:33:28
With the development of biotechnology, human organs can be continuously transplanted and people can live younger and younger and even achieve immortality. >> Immortality. >> Wow.
1:33:37
Predictions are this century there's a chance of living to 150 years old. That is crazy.
1:33:45
>> Um >> she is is he's like I'm just getting started actually. >> I'm I'm down.
1:33:49
>> Extremely bullish for New Limit. Jacob Kimmel. >> True. True. Extremely bullish.
1:33:52
Um, speaking of old people, guess who the oldest billionaire in America is?
1:34:03
His name's Or guess how old he is.
1:34:06
The oldest billionaire in America, >> 94.
1:34:11
>> You're 10 years short.
1:34:13
>> Turns 104 in September.
1:34:13
He founded the insurer Mercury General in 1961.
1:34:17
His name is George Joseph.
1:34:21
We got to get a founders episode on this guy if there isn't already one.
1:34:24
That is an incredible run. 61.
1:34:26
That's That's what 50 years before Tyler was born.
1:34:30
The chat's calling it BT before Tyler. >> BT >> BT.
1:34:36
Uh the the journal has a fun article uh deep diving all the biggest billionaires in America.
1:34:44
>> He also has non-traditional background.
1:34:46
He he actually got his bachelor's degree at Harvard.
1:34:49
H uh the youngest to oldest anonymized mostly. Uh the Ko and Ko Jr. are under 30. They're billionaires.
1:34:59
Uh Selena Gomez and Taylor Swift are under 40.
1:35:04
While 86% of the billionaires are men, more than 150 out of the thousand that the uh Wall Street Journal collected are women, including Selena Gomez and Taylor Swift.
1:35:14
Mark Zuckerberg's in his 40s.
1:35:14
uh has a huge circle here on this graphic.
1:35:20
Uh Musk, Paige, Brin, these guys are all in the charts.
1:35:24
Elon Musk is at 423 billion.
1:35:27
The next richest person, Jeff Bezos, is worth 283 billion. Of course, 423 billion.
1:35:33
There's only 300 million Americans.
1:35:37
So, that's enough to make every American a millionaire if he just gave his money away. Um that's how it works.
1:35:42
It's way better for him to keep it because he gets to do all the cool stuff with it. >> Yeah. >> Sick. >> Yeah.
1:35:49
>> Uh Illinois Governor JB Pritsker and President Trump are among more than 360 billionaires who started with some inherited wealth. Uh >> just a bit.
1:35:58
>> Uh uh Jensen Wong's on here. Steve Balmer's on here. He's almost 70.
1:36:01
The Waltons are on here and they're in their 70s. Milin's on here. He's almost 80.
1:36:08
Uh, what a run to go to jail, come out, still hold on to a billion. Not bad.
1:36:13
Larry Ellison's in his 80s. Uh, Geffin's on here. George Lucas is on here.
1:36:16
Uh, it's a murderer's row. You love it. Rockefeller.
1:36:21
There's still a Rockefeller. Who's alive? Who's Rockefeller?
1:36:25
>> So, did you did you you didn't cover this?
1:36:27
Collectively, these people, you were joking, but these people are worth 5. 7 trillion.
1:36:30
That's enough wealth to buy a Corvette Stingray convertible for every 65 plus US driver.
1:36:38
>> Wait, did you actually do this math? The journal did this? That's hilarious. >> Uh, so that that's 4. 7 trillion.
1:36:42
A 4-year Harvard tuition room and board for 1 million students plus $10,000 annual stipen only 388 buildings.
1:36:51
>> How much How much are they worth in total? >> Uh, 5. 7 trillion. >> I am deaf. Congratulations. That one hurt.
1:37:00
Uh, all the stock in McDonald's, Delta Airlines, Ford, and Lululemon. >> There we go.
1:37:05
>> And every every residential property in Chicago, 245 billion with 8 billion to spare.
1:37:10
That was not that impressive.
1:37:12
>> This is a weird stat from the journal.
1:37:14
So So they collected uh they collected what a,00 1,135 uh billionaires.
1:37:20
So, so I got to put their stat in stats in the true zone because >> if you tried to buy a Corvette Stingray for every 65 plus US driver >> going to drive the market price going to go way way way up soar.
1:37:31
You're going to you're going to get uh you're going to hit real scarcity real real quick.
1:37:39
>> Um >> you might be able to lease a Model 3 for everyone.
1:37:41
But but is this not like an incredibly like you could get >> a Corvette for every American 65 plus a four-year degree for 1 million students.
1:37:51
You could buy McDonald's, Delta, Ford, and Lululemon and some property in Chicago.
1:37:55
And that's >> that's that's the journal saying like look how much how much they have to spare.
1:38:01
I mean that >> can you imagine how long it would take to calculate all the sales tax for all those Corvette Stingray?
1:38:06
>> I don't even want to think about it.
1:38:06
I'd rather spend five minutes.
1:38:07
I'd rather spend five minutes with numeral sales tax and autopilot.
1:38:11
Spend less than five minutes per month on sales tax and place.
1:38:14
In fact, it's the only way you could actually execute that deal to buy 300 million Corvette Stingrays.
1:38:18
Um, but this is a funny stat.
1:38:20
So, uh, billionaires are everywhere.
1:38:22
So, they they they they track a thousand billionaires, right?
1:38:25
In the US, they own more than 3,000 homes.
1:38:27
That's only three per person.
1:38:30
I feel like that's not that many.
1:38:33
Like, if you're a billionaire and a house is like 10, 20 million. >> Yeah.
1:38:37
These must be residential properties, but still that seems extremely low. >> 300 home.
1:38:41
Yeah, it seems like the data was not like widely available.
1:38:43
I feel like they must have like oh that's only what they could like pull together.
1:38:47
But there's a lot more homes home ownership.
1:38:51
>> A lot of these billions like 20 homes just in Palo Alto.
1:38:53
>> A lot of these only only a third of them inherited wealth meaning that that the other 700 or so are not beating the American dream allegations.
1:39:05
This is the real headline here.
1:39:05
700 billionaires in America are not beating the American dream allegation.
1:39:09
They were born, they didn't inherit anything and they created billions of dollars of wealth.
1:39:15
>> They're not beating the allegation.
1:39:16
>> They're not beating the allegations.
1:39:18
They are living the American dream.
1:39:19
>> They're living the American dream. They can't deny it.
1:39:20
>> Started without inherited wealth and now they empire.
1:39:23
Now they own not one, not two, but three homes on average.
1:39:28
>> What's funny is I I feel like I heard this story about like Bill Gates owns like a thousand homes or something like that or like all the land or whatever.
1:39:34
Like isn't there Ken Griffy owns 50 homes.
1:39:38
>> You don't even have to be a billionaire to be to be just collecting homes on the fly, just browsing.
1:39:42
>> I feel like I see a guy on Instagram every day, but buy a forplex, buy seven homes, rent them out, make a billion dollars.
1:39:49
>> I'm assuming this is like residential, so it's not like >> what they actually Yeah, like one real estate developer billionaire would own more than 300 homes. You think?
1:39:56
Isn't Black Rockck counted?
1:39:58
Don't Black Doesn't Black Rockck own like a bajillion homes or something like that?
1:40:02
Isn't that the They conspiracy?
1:40:02
own 105% of all the homes in America.
1:40:06
>> But that's that's just because they're counting the tents at Burning Man in Black Rock City as individual homes.
1:40:12
If you take those out, I mean, like, you can't count a Black Rock tent as a Black Rockck owned home because it's not really a permanent home.
1:40:21
It doesn't make any sense. I don't get it.
1:40:23
Uh uh, also underrated alpha.
1:40:27
If you're trying to be the only billionaire in a state, you got to go to Wyoming and Alaska because there's no billionaires with primary businesses in Wyoming and Alaska. >> Primary business. >> Primary businesses.
1:40:39
So like, you know, >> so just move your business there. >> Yeah.
1:40:43
I I mean Alaska, it's it's just sitting there waiting.
1:40:46
It is crazy that Wyoming I feel like they're super like crypto friendly.
1:40:49
You think there'd be somebody who like went and built some massive thing there, but it hasn't happened. At least not yet.
1:40:53
Uh Jack on X said, "Uh, Costco should get into web services.
1:40:59
Kirkland cloud would clean up." >> It really would.
1:41:02
I would be repping Kirkland Cloud. We would build on Kirk. >> This is interesting.
1:41:06
Shiel highlights German discount ger Lidle. >> Lidle. >> L. Okay. Little. Sure. >> Lidle. Yeah.
1:41:14
>> Built their own cloud infrastructure because of German data laws and now has a $2 billion revenue business selling it to others. AWS. >> It actually worked.
1:41:21
If you're a retailer, get into cloud. >> Neocoud. >> Get into cloud.
1:41:25
>> Costco should do Neocloud.
1:41:25
Buy buy GPUs by the bulk. >> Buy rack.
1:41:31
>> Do you get this meme, the Doctor Strange tweet or how I learned to love the RT just after the uh just after the Cun Pang and Vladimir Putin were caught on a hot mic.
1:41:42
Uh there's this meme of this woman looking at this screen and this is the this is the what would >> No, I don't I missed I missed the original meme.
1:41:50
Tyler, you were born uh long ago.
1:41:54
Do you understand this meme?
1:41:55
>> When it's the woman looking at the screen. >> Yeah. >> Yeah.
1:41:59
>> Some Netflix documentary or Apple TV. >> Yeah.
1:42:02
I never watch the show, but um >> Yeah.
1:42:05
>> Uh I I think it's like it's just like a boomer meme.
1:42:08
It's like, oh, what like the old woman is like doesn't understand the internet.
1:42:12
>> We are boomers because we don't understand the boomer meme.
1:42:16
>> Yeah, it's kind of a meta boomer take. I don't know. >> It's a boomerang.
1:42:20
Anyway, it's always like her looking at the screen is like, "Oh, what what do they mean by this?"
1:42:24
>> I'm curious to know what the actual show is because it like the original photo of that meme, it looked it looked cinematic. It looked interesting.
1:42:30
And of course, I have to watch 100% of the movies around here since Jordy isn't lifting his weight.
1:42:38
Uh anyway, uh do you see this uh interaction between uh Daniel Tenrio and Rune?
1:42:44
Do you think this is real?
1:42:46
So Daniel says, "Hedge fund guys are so much more fun to spend time with than tech guys.
1:42:50
Rigorous, irreverent, and don't have their heads up their own butts."
1:42:54
And Run says, "Bro tweeted this 5 minutes after we got done hanging out."
1:43:00
>> And do you think it's real?
1:43:00
Do you think Do you think this actually happening?
1:43:04
He's trolling Rune or do you think this is just completely random?
1:43:05
And Run is just like taking the opportunity.
1:43:08
>> Run is in SF and I think I think Daniel's in New York City.
1:43:09
Run's been on a little trip. He was in LA briefly.
1:43:12
I didn't get a chance to meet up with him, but um do want to hang out with him soon.
1:43:17
Um >> hedge fun guys are serious guys.
1:43:21
>> Serious that some he's saying irreverent.
1:43:23
That's the opposite of serious.
1:43:25
>> No, they're serious about making money.
1:43:26
More serious than venture capital.
1:43:28
>> This is the the what Jeremy Gon take that that investors are more interesting than founders.
1:43:31
They the fox and the hedgehog thing, right?
1:43:34
The >> is that a public take?
1:43:35
Yeah, it was at the founders uh it was at the founders event with David Center, which I don't know if that was ever streamed or released, so maybe it's not, but you're leaked. Sorry, bro.
1:43:45
>> I mean, yeah, founders that are the average founder that is incredibly locked in knows a lot about their business and their market, not a lot about other things. >> Yep.
1:43:54
>> And uh it's more difficult to be a a a generational investor, you know, only knowing about super narrow.
1:44:04
>> It's like the fox and the hedgehog, right?
1:44:05
That's the that that's the analogy.
1:44:07
The fox knows a little bit about a lot of different things.
1:44:09
The hedgehog knows one big thing.
1:44:10
That's like the mind uh what's it called?
1:44:12
Like the mindset, the ah what what was it called?
1:44:16
Like the I don't know framework. The mental model.
1:44:18
The mental model that people talk about >> like sort of spiky intelligence.
1:44:23
>> The hedgehog that that completely blows up the metaphor because the metaphor is that the hedgehog only knows one thing.
1:44:29
It in fact does not have spiky intelligence. Oh, I guess it does. You know, you're right.
1:44:34
spiky intelligence because >> it's actually better now. That's fantastic. Yeah. Okay.
1:44:39
Yeah, we need to expand on the fox and the hedgehog metaphor for sure. Um anyway, Finn.
1:44:42
AI, the number one AI agent for customer service, number one in performance benchmarks, number one in competitive bakeoffs, number one ranking in G2.
1:44:50
You want some spiky intelligence?
1:44:53
Spike that intelligence right into your customer service organization. >> Smart.
1:44:58
>> It's the best place to spike the intelligence.
1:45:00
It's like the football after you bring AI enabled service to your organization.
1:45:06
>> Um, >> Victoriao says, "Incredible white pill scientists just mapped how aging rewires our genes.
1:45:11
They found universal switches that control decline.
1:45:15
>> Basically, aging is a coordinated epigenetic drift of which we now have the atlas we will solve aging in our lifetime."
1:45:22
>> Maybe maybe Putin and Xihinping were >> they said just Yeah, just Yeah. Yeah.
1:45:28
They probably follow Vtorio and they were and and like right before that clip started they were like, "Oh, did you see what Vtorio posted?"
1:45:35
>> And then they're like, "Yeah, we're going to live 150."
1:45:37
>> Like, "Yeah, Victoria is like the best."
1:45:39
That's where I get my news from. >> Yeah.
1:45:41
Just a couple 72-year-old bros following Victoria.
1:45:44
>> I like to think that they both both Putin and Cunping have a nons on X through VPNs that they just scroll the timeline like the rest of us. >> I could see it. >> It's possible.
1:45:54
It is funny if you assume that that organ trans, you know, if they assume that organ transplants are the solution to immortality, why are they assuming like 150 is the cap? >> Yeah.
1:46:06
>> Is by that point you're so such a mix of different parts, it's not really you anymore.
1:46:10
>> Well, you're a ship of thesis. Yeah. The ship of thesis.
1:46:12
You've been >> You have no original parts anymore.
1:46:14
So, you're like entirely different.
1:46:16
>> I mean, that's the classic classic question.
1:46:18
If you if you swap out everything but your brain, it feels like it's still you.
1:46:21
Isn't there crazy Isn't there crazy stories around like heart transplants like changing >> your soul?
1:46:29
>> Yeah, your personality. >> Really? No way. I had no idea. I haven't seen that.
1:46:32
Um, what do you think, Tyler?
1:46:35
>> Well, I mean, you're already enthusiasts because like your sales guy. >> Oh, true. True.
1:46:38
>> But I think it's more likely that Jin Ping Putin were have been watching Darc. Yes.
1:46:42
And saw the Jacob Kimlop. >> That's probably true. That's probably true. >> Yeah.
1:46:46
So, >> I mean, I wouldn't be surprised since Dwarvesh is like the foremost interview scholar on China right now.
1:46:51
Like, >> I'm being serious. >> Yeah. No, 100%.
1:46:53
Like, yeah, that makes sense.
1:46:55
And apparently podcasts are booming there.
1:46:56
Did you see that post about how uh like uh like China seems to be going through some sort of like boom of translated uh American podcast content that's doing very well there. So, stay tuned. >> I'm on I'm on Gemini.
1:47:09
The idea the idea that a heart transplant can change a person's personality is fascinating and controversial.
1:47:15
The medical community broadly says uh that that personality these sort of psychological changes that happen after a heart surgery are due to >> trauma and side effects from the medication.
1:47:26
But there's more speculative >> um uh ideas around how potentially memories are stored in places other than the brain.
1:47:34
And so and what happens there's there's there's people that report like personality changes that mirror the donors.
1:47:42
>> The person that that that uh the original person's heart >> gets transferred into the new host and then and then the new host starts being being and acting more like the original donor which is crazy.
1:47:55
>> That is actually crazy.
1:47:55
So, anybody in the chat had a >> if you've had a heart transplant, >> maybe we should get our hearts swapped >> like Face Off, which I movie you haven't seen. I know.
1:48:06
Uh but in the movie Face Off, Nicholas Cage and John Travolta take their faces off and swap faces because of some convoluted thing where one of them is a criminal and one of them's a uh one of them is a hardened criminal who has some information about where like a bomb will go off or something like that.
1:48:24
And then the and then the the the the special agent needs to go undercover as the criminal.
1:48:29
And so they swap faces and then they of course the actors just play each other and then they go on a >> I don't know what our if we did a hard swap it would just be we it' just be more golden retriever mode activation. I don't know. I don't know.
1:48:46
I don't know how much it would do.
1:48:47
Uh do you want to do you want to kick off this article about open AI think?
1:48:48
I I would I would rather tell you the full plot of Face Off, actually. >> Okay, tell it to me. I'll be listening. >> Okay, perfect.
1:48:57
So, FBI special agent Sean Archer survives an assassination attempt by Caster Troy, a terrorist for hire, but the bullet kills his son, Michael.
1:49:07
Archer then engages in an extended vendetta against Troy.
1:49:09
It culminates six years later in his team ambushing Troy who is with his younger brother and accomplice uh Polu Pollocks on a remote desert airirstrip.
1:49:20
Troy goads Archer by saying he knows of a bomb that is located somewhere in Los Angeles and is set to explode in a in a few days.
1:49:28
I was correct about the bomb.
1:49:30
Uh before Archer can learn more, Troy is knocked unconscious and falls into a coma. Uh Palo Palo Pelux.
1:49:34
I need to figure out how to how to pronounce that.
1:49:39
Uh, the guy in custody affirms that the bomb is real, but refuses to reveal its act it its location.
1:49:43
Um, in secret, Archer reluctantly undergoes a highly experimental face transplant procedure by do by Dr.
1:49:51
Malcolm Walsh to take on Caster Troy's face, voice, and appearance.
1:49:55
Archer as Troy is taken to the same highsecurity prison where Paloo is being held in order to obtain information on the bomb's location.
1:50:05
Troy, >> I got some visuals for you, Jen. >> Oh, you got it. Yeah, this is great.
1:50:09
Troy unexpectedly awakens from his coma and discovers that his face is missing.
1:50:12
He calls his gang and they force Dr.
1:50:14
Walsh to transplate transplant Archer's face onto him.
1:50:17
Meanwhile, Archer successfully learns the bomb's location from Paloo before being informed that he has a visitor.
1:50:25
Anticipating a reunion with his colleague and return to his normal life, Archer instead instead finds Troy wearing his face.
1:50:30
Upon revealing he has murdered everyone else who knows about the face transplant.
1:50:36
Troy gleefully informs Archer that he looks forward to running his FBI career and ravishing his wife. It's a great film. It's a classic. 90s. Is it 90s? When did this come out? 1997 thriller. You got to watch it. It's the best.
1:50:49
Uh >> I'll add it to my list.
1:50:53
>> You should you should for for when the singularity hits.
1:50:54
Uh do we have the singularity tracker up and running yet or is it working, Tyler? What do we got?
1:51:00
How many days until uh >> right now it's at uh 344. I can you >> 344 days. 344 days until what? What are we saying? Until AGI. >> Till AGI. I >> Until Singularity. >> Yeah, I see. >> You need a light on. >> Hold it up. We can't really see it.
1:51:16
>> Yeah, you need a light.
1:51:17
>> You need a light on that. >> But we got a ticker.
1:51:19
We got a uh a an analog uh date tracker.
1:51:23
We will be tracking the amount of days until the singularity.
1:51:30
Sam Alman said that the singularity is just a few thousand days away.
1:51:35
Wasn't that what he said?
1:51:35
What how did how did Sam Alman exactly uh describe the few thousand days?
1:51:41
He said uh super intelligence is a few thousand days away. Super intelligent AI. So that's ASI.
1:51:49
So AGI is here essentially.
1:51:54
Um let's see thousand days.
1:51:54
So, um, super intelligence is a few thousand days away according to Sam Alman.
1:52:01
Tyler Cosgrove has a much shorter timeline apparently, just 300 days.
1:52:06
We're we're booting up for a ASI in in 300 days.
1:52:13
Yeah, we got to do better on the lighting here.
1:52:14
We're getting some crazy reflections in that thing.
1:52:16
Um, maybe we need to take off the front, you know, take off the glass so we can just see it fully.
1:52:22
But um anyway, uh what realistically how how many days do you think should go on there, Tyler?
1:52:30
>> Uh >> timeline to ASI. >> ASI.
1:52:32
>> It's super intelligent.
1:52:32
Sam Alman puts it at a few thousand days. I count a few is three. A few is three. A couple is two.
1:52:41
>> What's a few is three.
1:52:44
What do you think a few means?
1:52:44
Do you think a few could be four? >> How many few?
1:52:49
I would I would maybe put >> more than two hand but less than a significant amount.
1:52:53
A couple often implies two.
1:52:56
A few usually starts at three or more which can extend to small indetermined quality that is not many.
1:53:03
The exact number depends heavily on the context and what is being discussed.
1:53:05
So could a few >> Max is saying it feels feels pretty gentle says. >> Yeah. Yeah.
1:53:11
It is a gentle singularity for sure.
1:53:13
Um >> I was going to say 3,000 days which is 10 years right? What? 3,365.
1:53:20
>> Yeah, I' I've updated my >> Oh, wow.
1:53:24
Ultra bearish >> short everything.
1:53:28
>> I don't think it's How many years is that? 99999 divided by 365. That is 273 years away.
1:53:34
You got to be more optimistic than that, Tyler. >> Do we do the Ollie G?
1:53:39
Uh, somebody asked Ollie G, how many days until the singularity?
1:53:45
999999999 I I realistically I'm at I'm at 6,000 days.
1:53:52
Uh I'm on Kerszswhile timelines.
1:53:55
>> Kerszswall timelines put us at may maybe even more honestly. Maybe maybe 7,000 days.
1:54:00
Uh >> you put it in GTA terms like is that GTA 7 probably.
1:54:06
So So I'm on 2045 ASI Kerszswhile timelines.
1:54:10
I remain unchanged by any developments essentially.
1:54:14
So, uh, 2045 ASI arrives. It's the singularity.
1:54:18
And so, I'm around 7,000 days.
1:54:20
Sam Alman's at a few thousand. Is seven a few? I don't know. We'll decide.
1:54:24
But, uh, Tyler, feel free to to feel free to update that to whatever you think, uh, is the correct estimate for when ASI arrives.
1:54:31
Jordy, you've gone from, uh, not AGI pill to extremely AGI pilled, back to, you know, top signal maxer, uh, extremely AGI not pill.
1:54:43
How are you feeling about the progress towards super intelligence?
1:54:45
I think we're a few thousand days away.
1:54:49
>> I think there's only uh I think there's only >> it feels like there's there's this very small number of people that that have any like uh real sense of of the truth and they're all extremely conflicted.
1:55:03
>> They all have no incentive to tell you that it's >> Yeah.
1:55:06
They have an incentive to be like try to be a little realistic about it, but they have no incentive to say, you know, we're we're 10 years away or or it just all feels >> But you specifically don't have foundation model lab bags. You have adio.
1:55:22
com or Adio bags, customer relationship magic.
1:55:24
Adio is the AI native CRM that builds, scales, and grows your company to the next level.
1:55:30
Uh, obviously Adio has their own timelines, but what are your timelines?
1:55:35
my I don't even know if it's the right I I I think >> are you over under my estimate of 7,000 days until super intelligence and a singularity me and Ray Kerszswall riding together are you earlier selfreinforcing >> fullon super intelligent smarter than everyone can do any job can do anything >> can make itself smarter >> and it's just like it's a thing that just runs you know >> one shots anything full full self-reinforcing. Who knows?
1:56:05
Maybe it maybe it goes to war.
1:56:07
Maybe it just leaves, you know?
1:56:09
But it is it is fully >> definitely more than a decade.
1:56:13
Definitely more than a decade out. >> Yep.
1:56:14
So over 3,000 days for sure.
1:56:14
That's the low end of Sam Alman's prediction. >> Yeah.
1:56:19
I just uh I still find it hard to believe entirely. >> So maybe never. Maybe infinite days.
1:56:25
You you could be in the 9999999 if it happens99.
1:56:34
if it happens99. So, so, so this is the updated take actually from from some of the so from some of the AI pill they will say they will say uh it either happens very soon or doesn't happen at all which is kind of a funny way to
1:56:49
frame it but if you put it in those terms if it happens 10 years 20 years 30 years what are you feeling >> I just I just feel like it'll end up being I I I think we're going to continue to get more and more advanced capabilities
1:57:05
but I I don't I just believe that even the even the smartest people in the room like clearly we're getting machines that are just more intelligent and capable in many ways than humans but you can take >> you can take an and and and
1:57:25
>> uh I just sort of disagree with like the ramp that will come from that right because if you took >> if you took you know a thousand of the smartest people in the world and put them in a room and you say like solve world hunger or like get us to Mars. It's like
1:57:38
It's like >> they're not going to do it in it doesn't work.
1:57:40
It's not going to happen in a year. >> Yep.
1:57:43
>> Like if you take a really smart group of people like with SpaceX and you say get to Mars, say like great, well, >> we're going to work on this for decades, right?
1:57:51
And so I I I just >> I disagree with um or I don't believe in in this uh uh >> I don't believe in the fast takeoff.
1:57:57
I believe that like machines will continue to get smarter and smarter and more capable and more valuable to humanity, but I but I don't believe in in a in a fast takeoff.
1:58:08
>> It is somewhat of an abstraction of that uh philosophical question of like can God create a rock so heavy he can't lift it.
1:58:15
Like can can a human create something that's smarter than a human in every way?
1:58:20
Like how would that work?
1:58:22
There is an there is sort of like a fundamental philosophical >> and also like raw intelligence is rarely the bottleneck for >> progress.
1:58:31
>> That's a very good point. Yeah. I don't know.
1:58:33
I I'm still I still am rooting for the Terminator outcome where super intelligence comes around 2045.
1:58:42
We go to war and the indomitable human spirit wins out and we kill all the robots and we win.
1:58:50
I think that would be the most exciting outcome.
1:58:53
>> That would be fun >> because you It would be so unifying to humanity to have a common enemy, the Clanker.
1:59:00
>> Humanity needs a a true common enemy. >> Exactly.
1:59:02
There's so much infighting. >> America.
1:59:04
>> I don't want I don't want to manifest like an alien race that wants to destroy us, but it'd be so good for the world. We could stop. >> Fantastic.
1:59:11
>> We we we could ignore all politics and just focus on >> imagine the dream team.
1:59:14
Djun Ping, Donald Trump, Vladimir Putin, all the all your boys working together to shoot the clankers. Be great. It'd be amazing.
1:59:25
And and the funny thing is that the doomers will come to you and they'll say uniform human race.
1:59:29
>> Haven't you seen the ter haven't you seen the Terminator?
1:59:31
That's what's going to happen if we create AI.
1:59:32
We're going to get the Terminator outcome.
1:59:35
Well, I've seen Terminator.
1:59:36
I know you haven't, but I've seen Terminator.
1:59:38
What happens in Terminator?
1:59:40
Who wins at the end of Terminator? >> The humans.
1:59:42
The humans win at the end of Terminator.
1:59:44
That's the That's the conclusion of the movie.
1:59:46
They fight and the humans win.
1:59:48
And so if we get the Terminator outcome, that means we win. That means we win.
1:59:52
And that's going to be a lot of fun.
1:59:54
So tool up, get the guns, get ready to fight the clankers.
1:59:59
We're going to war, but not for the next two decades.
2:00:01
It's going to be two decades of enterprise sass.
2:00:03
It's going to be two decades of of of shareholder value >> cruel.
2:00:11
And it's going to be two years of delightful rest on an eight sleep. >> Get a pod five.
2:00:17
5-year warranty, 30- night risk-free trial, free returns, free shipping, >> fantastic sleepw. com, >> and I got a 90. So, please roll. >> Thank you.
2:00:34
>> Congratulations, John. >> I am on a roll.
2:00:35
And you know who else is on a roll? Microsoft.
2:00:38
Microsoft has been on a roll.
2:00:40
And we have the chief product officer of Microsoft joining us ultra >> the final boss of product people.
2:00:50
>> This is the true gatekeeper to our plan to bring back Clippy.
2:00:52
So we will welcome uh the CPO. Welcome to the stream. How you doing? >> What's happening?
2:01:02
>> I think we can hear you. How you doing? >> Okay. >> Yes. Fantastic.
2:01:04
Uh thanks so much for hopping on the stream >> Microsoft.
2:01:08
So, just so you know, I have I said there's many bosses, but Clippy is the ultimate boss.
2:01:15
>> Yes, Clippy is the ultimate boss.
2:01:15
Has Clippy actually been thrown around as an idea?
2:01:19
It feels like more and more, you know, mega companies, like the huge companies are starting to have a little bit more fun every once in a while.
2:01:25
It is a bit of a wild uh I've seen some like throwback Microsoft merch that's gotten out.
2:01:31
Is there any serious discussion in internally to think about reviving Clippy?
2:01:36
I feel like it would be so much fun. Dude, I I'm with you.
2:01:38
I feel like um unironically Clippy was just like early, right?
2:01:44
So, >> totally totally the original convers interface interface.
2:01:49
Um anyway, uh would you mind introducing yourself and give us a little bit of an overview of like what your day-to-day actually looks like?
2:01:57
It's such a huge organization.
2:01:58
There's so much to do, but I'd love to have a little bit more context on what you oversee and what your role actually looks like.
2:02:06
>> Yeah, let me give you the me.
2:02:06
I I um I've been at Microsoft for 2 years.
2:02:09
I'm the chief product officer for AI at work.
2:02:12
So focused on kind of like how do you make work great again with AI um and if I and before that I was uh at uh Robin Hood uh and before that I was at Google for many years.
2:02:24
But I think the steel thread through all of this for me has been like uh the way I think about this bringing near future science fiction and putting it in product >> and making sure that billions of people have it.
2:02:37
So I did that with Google search uh and then I founded this area called Google Lens with you know the where the camera turns into a search engine um and of course Robin Hood for firsttime investors and at Microsoft my focus has been and our team's focus has been we have hundreds of millions of professionals we've got to make work not just about doing more but about being better.
2:03:00
So how does co-pilot work?
2:03:00
What are the agents that you get for work today?
2:03:04
You get a badge and a PC.
2:03:04
Should you get a team of agents?
2:03:08
>> How are you thinking about the trade-off of uh put a chat box?
2:03:09
Obviously, Microsoft has fantastic access, exclusive access to GPT5, the you know, frontier level capabilities.
2:03:19
Um there, but there's a trade-off from the product perspective.
2:03:23
put the chat box next to it, which is almost just one level away from just having two tabs open next to each other and having GPT5 in chat.
2:03:32
com over here versus do the hard work of have the product teams go and dig into how do we add AI functionality into every subtool if you're in Excel?
2:03:45
How do you create, you know, smarter functions within the cells as opposed to just a sidebar which has kind of been the status quo for a lot of AI at work projects broadly? >> Totally.
2:03:58
And I think this is the I mean the answer is yes is yes and right in some sense like look every shift and I've been through three of these.
2:04:04
I've been through three of these. I worked at Akami like 20 years ago and the internet was like a a thing was going to be a thing and then you know I was obviously mobile and cloud at Google and now at Microsoft with AI >> the first wave of all of these things is
2:04:19
just add AI right like put chat next to it put bring some intelligence to it and it's no different from you know the first wave of mobile apps were like desktop form factor like shrunk into the mobile screen form factor or the first
2:04:33
websites actually were like scanned brochures which are PDFs right um in back in the day folks uh and I think now I feel like one of the that's why you see the across the industry saying oh let's let's add AI to it but I think the
2:04:50
yes and comes from two things one is you want to make sure that when there's a natural way because of the natural language interface you're actually asking AI to do a lot more higher order things right instead of this fine grain manipulation of like oh let's go through
2:05:06
2200 menus and remember the magic incantation like you want to kind of say hey do it for me right so there's a bunch of things where chat is the right answer but then there are other things where if you're an Excel bro like you want to be in the in your IDE right and
2:05:21
get get your uh you know get your get the assistance right where you are so meeting you where where you are so if you saw last um two weeks ago we talked about and we announced the equals co-pilot but that's like is the hello world of like what we are thinking of
2:05:37
and say how do we actually right now in teams or in your meeting how do you have assistance right along with the chatbot >> yeah from a from a product perspective there's something very interesting going on where I mean Microsoft kind of coined the term or the
2:05:54
definition of like being a platform where uh the companies that built on top of Windows created more value than Microsoft captured and it was like the classic example of of a technology platform driving like incredible value. Um, there's something potentially at
2:06:08
Um, there's something potentially at least that we've been tracking where we've talked to what three or four different companies that are building AI add-ons to Excel >> or or trying to rebuild it >> or trying to rebuild it, but a lot of times it's actually integrated into Excel.
2:06:23
And there's one frame where okay, those companies are going to get steamrolled by Excel uh and the team there.
2:06:30
There's the other frame which is >> we said it, not you.
2:06:33
Uh well I mean that that's a risk that I'm sure every investor in those companies is discussing.
2:06:36
Uh but then there's another frame where Excel becomes a platform like Windows became a platform and there is a robust ecosystem of apps and services on top some of those that are complimentary to copilot functionality some of those that are competitive.
2:06:52
Um, so I guess the question is like is Excel becoming a platform and do you see like how do you how do you message around the openness of the Excel platform?
2:07:03
Are you trying to take learnings from the openness of the Microsoft ecosystem and bring that into the developer communications on top of Excel or is there a different strategy at play?
2:07:12
at play? Yeah and I think you know look super sharp point and I I think in the in the fullness of time office as a whole has always been a platform right if you look at like word excel powerpoint actually outlook plugins teams has a very healthy like bot ecosystem so the platform play is always
2:07:34
been kind of at the center of it and it's the question though is there are certain it's keeping the user in mind are there things that are much more intuitive and native to be part of the product and are there things that are kind of like let's say you're doing something very specific for accounting. It is absolutely the right thing for
2:07:48
It is absolutely the right thing for that to be a plug-in and addin versus doing something horizontal that should really be a feature of the product.
2:07:54
So that's the way we thinking about it.
2:07:59
>> Um have you thought any at all about how AI can supercharge the way people use LinkedIn?
2:08:06
I imagine that there's a lot of I I that might be a completely separate world from what you're doing, but I it does seem like something that uh that in the future um people have been people have been out there for so long. I need a personal CRM.
2:08:20
I need some sort of thing on top of my LinkedIn connections to remind me.
2:08:23
And you get those like on every social app you get the reminder, hey, it's somebody's birthday.
2:08:28
You should write them a note.
2:08:30
But with AI, you could imagine so much more power there to say, I'm trying to sell this particular thing.
2:08:35
I'm hiring for this particular thing and having GPT5 go and crawl all the profiles, put together something for you.
2:08:41
Have you thought about anything that's happening over in the LinkedIn world or is that just kind of out of your purview?
2:08:47
>> It's you look we we Ryan and I talk all the time and he's actually like much more front and center on the office world now.
2:08:53
So I think the the thing that's interesting there is that a lot of these ideas were just like unfundable or bad ideas before because it didn't have enough tokens.
2:09:02
So my favorite thing to say is like, hey, take take all these like ideas people thought were like really bad.
2:09:07
So for example, like I'd have like a whole bunch of people pitch back in Google the whole alerting, oh wouldn't it be great if you could kind of like ongoing do like event discovery.
2:09:18
I'm into this favorite like my favorite band is this obscure thing and like you know wouldn't it be great if I knew something about like >> oh I think we have >> I think we're having some difficulties actually >> sorry I I I think we're having some technical difficulties here um can you hear us okay >> I I can hear you but it's fine >> okay sorry I think you're cutting out um le let's move on to uh >> I didn't say anything controversial.
2:09:50
>> No, no, it's not that.
2:09:50
I think I think it's the uh the the backbone internet infrastructure in this company in this country that's uh that's controversial.
2:09:59
Um, what uh what what about >> Yeah, I would like I guess like my my biggest thing that I' I'd be curious to get your insight on is is are there like how many businesses in the in the Microsoft ecosystem have just totally opted out of AI that are not that are not responding to upsells that are just not interested.
2:10:22
Maybe they have employees that are kind of using various AI tools themselves, but I would have to imagine it's like a very very large percentage of companies within that are >> off contrary.
2:10:34
I think um it's in fact we we've had like more than 90% of Fortune 500 using some form of like you know co-pilot AI products.
2:10:41
We have like 100 million customers that have just we've just crossed 100 million across commercial and consumer on co-pilot usage.
2:10:51
usage. The thing that's actually interesting that I see is maybe a variant of what you're asking which is you know like there's one extreme uh there's a set of folks who are just leaning much the posture is much more uh proactive I would say and kind of like
2:11:07
in the game get in the arena building stuff it's not just about oh like there's an offtheshelf thing this is a chatbot that I'll buy and see who who uses it in my company so that set of firms in fact like we've started calling them frontier firms, right? These guys
2:11:20
These guys are like out there starting to kind of like invest both build and buy and partner and we are starting to see oh those folks actually get a lot more out of AI.
2:11:32
So for example like one example for me is like these guys are using the reasoning models.
2:11:36
So when you if you step back and think like you know where we are in AI the first version of AI it's just been more about like next token prediction and like chatbot right? >> Yeah.
2:11:47
Um but the next really real big unlock came in January and February around that time when the reasoning models came online.
2:11:55
>> Yeah, >> that's when we saw a very clear shift.
2:11:58
There's certain companies that just jumped in and said, "Oh, all these things that we couldn't do 6 months ago or one year ago, let's try them now."
2:12:06
>> Has that been including Microsoft by the way? >> Yeah.
2:12:09
Has that been affecting gross margins?
2:12:11
We saw in the Wall Street Journal yesterday that notion obviously sells a few competitors to Microsoft products saw gross margins drop from 90% to something like 80%.
2:12:19
I was talking to Ivan he said it actually wasn't even that bad but there was some sort of an impact obviously you can upsell against that but how is the how's the economic trade-off how are you thinking about that with uh you know selling obviously people want frontier level intelligence but uh there there it might change the economic equation.
2:12:37
Are you seeing anything that indicates that uh going forward the the fundamental gravity of the economic equation might be different?
2:12:44
different? I mean look look I think it's going to be proportional in the sense that like I was joking with someone saying like you know using GBD5 thinking like in your product is like taking a flying car to a grocery store right or 03 pro or whatever like so in some sense
2:13:00
you do have to be it's no longer about like just being a rapper on the model sure yes the model is eating the product right absolutely so that's I think one thing both these statements seemingly contradictory are true and we're seeing that on one hand the model is eating the product. What do I mean by that? Like What do I mean by that?
2:13:15
product. What do I mean by that? Like you know internally even us we spent a bunch of time trying to solve what I call the sixfinger problem right like remember two years ago when Deli 3 came out and like to generate humans it would be like six fingers and five like 18 toes or what have you and there's a
2:13:32
whole bunch of startups that said oh we'll solve that right and whole bunch of product teams inside Microsoft too saying oh we'll just like figure out how to solve the six-finger problem metaphorically speaking 6 months later the model GBD 40 came out and like, you know, there's there's no longer a six-finger problem. >> Yeah. I mean, hallucinations, >> Yeah.
2:13:49
I mean, hallucinations, >> yeah, hallucinations seem to be at an all-time low.
2:13:53
Like, the models are getting way more.
2:13:56
>> Uh, there's been a lot of reports of of consumers developing like friendlike relationships with various LLMs.
2:14:01
Do you have is there any evidence that that uh employees at companies are are developing real relationships with with AI in the way that some people on on Reddit have developed relationships with models like 40? >> Yeah.
2:14:17
I mean I I think we've made uh the product choices that kind of squarely put AI uh at Microsoft as tools, right? Yeah.
2:14:26
And even even these tools, they can be agentic tools, meaning they can be working for you in background.
2:14:30
You have a natural language interface to it.
2:14:36
Uh but there is this is this is not an accidental thing.
2:14:38
We have to make intentional choices.
2:14:39
In fact, I I I coined a term called neural software, meaning that it's not software as usual.
2:14:46
In fact, Steve Synowski and I had a spat on Twitter about it.
2:14:49
on Twitter about it. uh saying uh like because for me the way I think about this is look uh yes it is software as engineers we all know that it's like stoastic models and it's like you know you you peel a few layers it's all
2:15:02
software but it is probabilistic and there are three things that are really important going on here and we like as builders I I feel like we got to pay attention to it number one is the natural language interface right it just
2:15:16
has this humanlike anthropomorphic interface so when poor gets replaced by five like you're like you're not like oh who moved my cheese or this menu item moved you're like who fired my you know like chef right so I think that is a point whether at work or in um in
2:15:34
personal life but I think the second thing that we are underestimating and we certainly see that inside is the way we building products and releasing them is changing like previously we'd say oh yeah like 2.1 to 2.2 too, right? Like 1 to 2. 2 too, right?
2:15:45
Like the software is updated, release notes and change log.
2:15:49
But now it's just like you're you have to kind of slow roll out.
2:15:54
You have to kind of do eval benchmarks on how the interaction works, not just the accuracy of things, right?
2:16:02
>> And then the third thing I'm seeing at least like and this one's a hard one to kind of like crack.
2:16:05
Um we're still trying to figure out what that means is the composition of the team, right?
2:16:10
the composition of the team, right? Like in the past it' be like oh you had engineers your you know your devs your test your product your UX it's all a blur right it's all a mush and like you have a bunch of generalists and you have the model whispers right and then you
2:16:28
have go to market like that's the new triangle that that we're seeing >> well it's a fun puzzle to solve thank you for hopping on the stream this was great we will talk to you soon have a great rest of your day >> and just uh let let everybody know internally that we're we're We're we're riding >> riding with the XL Bros and Clippy. Yes,
2:16:42
Yes, >> we're riding with Clippy for sure that we would love to help relaunch Clippy given the opportunity. >> Thank you so much. >> Great to meet you. We'll talk to you soon.
2:16:52
Have a great rest of your day.
2:16:54
>> In the meantime, let me tell you about adquick. com.
2:16:55
Out of home advertising made easy and measurable.
2:16:57
Say goodbye to the headaches of out of home advertising.
2:17:00
Only adqu combines technology out ofome expertise and data to enable efficient seamless ad buying across the globe.
2:17:04
Uh Nick, did you see this posed by Nick Dobos?
2:17:07
uh OpenAI cackling right now today.
2:17:09
Uh so OpenAI acquired Stats Sig.
2:17:12
We talked about this yesterday.
2:17:14
Um but he's uh he's sharing a photo of anthropic and telemetry services for data usage.
2:17:20
Cloud code connects from users machines to the stat service to log operational metrics as latency reliability and usage patterns.
2:17:29
Uh, and so is what he's is what he's saying like they are they're going to rug Anthropic by buying their their telemetry like their logging service like is this monopolistic like market?
2:17:41
Can Anthropic not just use another company or product?
2:17:43
I I don't this doesn't quite like sit with me as like oh yeah it's like they totally owned Anthropic.
2:17:51
It's like, yeah, they bought a company that Anthropic uses.
2:17:55
Like the the Anthropic will probably keep using maybe they'll replatform. I I don't know.
2:17:59
It doesn't seem like that big of a deal. >> Yeah.
2:18:01
I mean, I I do wonder uh curious if if Stat Sig is going to >> remain an independent brand or just be rolled under OpenAI. >> Yeah. >> Yeah.
2:18:14
There's a bunch of companies that use Statsig.
2:18:15
I'm just looking at the website. Yeah.
2:18:17
Uh EA, Microsoft, Atlassian, and Bloomberg >> effective altruists use it. >> You said EA's use it. [Music] >> Just kidding.
2:18:28
>> Uh Tyler, do you think this is uh do you think that that uh >> what are they using tracking shrimp welfare?
2:18:36
>> I frankly I don't know what stat sig really does.
2:18:38
So I I have no like it seems like yeah anthropic can just >> Why don't you know what it does?
2:18:43
It's no more complicated than palanteer.
2:18:44
It's equival It's equivalent to oh uh we got R for Rock dropping massive alpha on ML uh ML's closing $14 billion uh blew past the initial target of $9 billion.
2:18:57
I assume that's market cap.
2:18:59
Uh the rumors about Apple's acquisition were fake. Uh that seems right.
2:19:05
>> That always seemed fake.
2:19:05
I mean in what world was France going to let their national AI champion be >> Wait, wait, wait, wait. Is this real?
2:19:12
This hello hello breaking Apple and Google have reached a deal to have Gemini power a new Siri platform as per Bloomberg.
2:19:16
Let's pull that up because that's literally my prediction today.
2:19:21
Did I just not read Bloomberg?
2:19:22
>> Well, this was rumor this is rumored for a while.
2:19:25
>> Is it actually Whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa.
2:19:28
Uh, we got >> either I'm going to look extremely dumb or extremely smart. Let's read this.
2:19:32
>> Okay, so this >> Okay.
2:19:33
Apple plans AI powered search tool for Siri to rival OpenAI perplexity.
2:19:38
Apple is planning to launch its own artificial intelligence webpowered search tool next year, stepping up uh competition.
2:19:45
I'm going to put this in the chat or should I put it in the tab?
2:19:49
Um the company's working on a new system, world knowledge answers that will be integrated into the Siri voice assistant according to people with knowledge of the man of the matter.
2:19:56
Uh and wait, who are they? So it's Google. Okay.
2:20:02
Um Apple is aiming to release the service described by some executives as an answer News breaking right now is crazy.
2:20:09
So, American Eagle just beat earnings up another 20% after hours.
2:20:14
>> Also, moment of silence for Figma. They missed earnings. Very sad to see that.
2:20:18
But never bet against our boy Dylan Field and the whole team.
2:20:23
>> Yeah, everyone is ripping. American Eagle.
2:20:25
Uh, wait, I I wonder if they actually beat earnings because of that Sydney Sweeney thing.
2:20:28
Like, we were talking about the value that she brought to that brand and it probably was like a hundred million in market cap.
2:20:33
She should have gotten like a $50 million payday.
2:20:37
Like it really did change the the trajectory of the of the business.
2:20:41
Uh Sweeney XA ideal incoming.
2:20:41
Regal is a poster in the on Thank you for you do >> American uh American Eagles still down 30% the last 12 months, 20% year to date.
2:20:58
So Sween Sweeney really was the turnaround. >> Sydney bottom ticket.
2:21:01
Hopefully she got some shares.
2:21:03
>> She basically bought it.
2:21:03
Uh, the underlying technology enabling the new Siri could come in part from Alphabet Google, Alphabet Inc.'
2:21:10
s Google, Apple's longtime partner in Internet Search.
2:21:12
The company's reached a formal agreement this week for Apple to help evaluate and test a Google developed AI model to help power the voice assistant. So, very interesting.
2:21:22
I would imagine Apple has to pay Google for this version of just an answer engine because the answer engine is not going to be directly monetized, but Google has to be working on agentic commerce, agentic ads in the LLM results. It seems so obvious.
2:21:37
I I feel like this is going to flip at some point, but I don't know, maybe I'm wrong.
2:21:42
Um, Apple's new search experience will include an interface that makes use of text photos. Yeah.
2:21:46
What do you So, how does how is Google going to feel about this?
2:21:49
Giving them >> why what's wrong with this?
2:21:53
>> They're building something that is that is a a they're building an AI powered web search tool for Siri. >> Yeah.
2:22:00
They're building software because they're a software company and they're selling it to the hardware company or they're partnering with the hardware company.
2:22:06
>> So, you think Apple's saying you're going to keep paying us 20 billion and we're going to compete with you?
2:22:12
>> How are they competing? No, this is them not.
2:22:14
This is them saying, "We're not getting into foundation models.
2:22:17
We're not going to do our own our own.
2:22:18
We're going to use Gemini."
2:22:22
>> Oh, they're saying, "Okay, I missed the part." >> No.
2:22:24
So, uh, today Siri can answer basic questions.
2:22:27
>> Yeah, we got we got to the companies reached Apple and Alphabet reached a formal agreement for a Apple to evaluate and test a Google developed a AI model to help power the voice assistant. >> Yes.
2:22:38
So, um, so what like what like this is I mean it's a formal agreement to evaluate and test it.
2:22:43
So like we're still like years away from anything happening here.
2:22:48
Like I like the next iPhone event is like next week and like they're not going to roll out a Google partners.
2:22:54
I I'd imagine they don't roll out a Google partnership.
2:22:56
Um, this feels like something that they're going to be working in over time. I don't know.
2:23:00
May maybe they will, but either way, >> so Apple is rebuilding Siri around three core components.
2:23:07
planner, the search systems for the web and devices, and a summarizer.
2:23:10
The planner interprets voice or text input and decides how to respond.
2:23:14
The search system scans a web or user data, and a summarizer pulls it all together into an answer.
2:23:19
>> And uh Apple has recently leaning toward a customuilt Google Gemini model for the summarizer.
2:23:25
It would run on Apple's own private cloud computer uh computing servers.
2:23:30
>> That's going to be important.
2:23:30
>> Search Giant already delivered the technology to Apple and both companies are now collaborating on fine-tuning and testing it. So, >> yep.
2:23:39
Um, Apple has been recently >> does say that Apple considered acquiring Perplexity to enhance the search features in Siri.
2:23:45
So, I mean Perplexity is the the big uh >> Yeah, but Perplexity sits on top of >> other foundation models.
2:23:52
So, like it doesn't it doesn't fully solve Apple's problem all the way to the root of the stack in my opinion.
2:23:59
So, um, somewhat makes sense that they would that that the the the secret sauce that Perplexity builds is something that Apple's like capable of instantiating. Yeah. What you got?
2:24:13
>> Uh, so I'm reading the article.
2:24:13
It says um Google was not initially the front runner for the Siri project.
2:24:16
Anthropic had been uh in the lead for the deal.
2:24:20
>> Um, but then their price was too high. >> Yeah. >> Interesting.
2:24:23
anthropic demanded a high price for using this technology more than 1.
2:24:26
5 billion a year and Google was open to more favorable financial terms.
2:24:30
So uh the the end result is that we should expect that Apple pays Google less than 1.
2:24:35
5 billion per year to vend Gemini models into Siri essentially.
2:24:46
And I feel like as soon as Gemini has ads in the results or monetized commerce in the results >> and Apple can take a cut of that.
2:24:57
>> Apple should want to take a cut of that.
2:24:59
And so it feels like this this this economic flow is going to reverse at some point. I don't know. May maybe it doesn't.
2:25:07
Maybe maybe inference is really remains really expensive and the and the monetization never really pencils out or something.
2:25:15
But this feels like something that that would flow the other direction at some point. >> They're a gatekeeper.
2:25:19
They're going to they're going to take the cut. >> Yeah.
2:25:22
I mean, OpenAI is now in the league of actually >> like they are are they're they're they're very much in the mag seven league in terms of competing uh competing.
2:25:33
I mean this in a world where Apple device users are just pushed into using new new effectively.
2:25:39
This is a Google product, right?
2:25:42
that will be powered by still powered by Google search and and theoretically built into the existing Google ads engine.
2:25:50
It's just going to be um I would I would not uh bet against OpenAI in any way, but it's certainly uh this is some real competition more so than than just a net new Gemini app that people are >> I guess the question is what is the value of this particular knowledge engine right?
2:26:12
Isn't that what isn't that how they're characterizing it?
2:26:14
Like the the uh what's it called?
2:26:17
They >> world knowledge answers.
2:26:21
So to me, this is starting with something that's just like, hey, what are some things I can do for fun when in New York?
2:26:28
And it's like you should >> world knowledge answers.
2:26:30
Is that related to World Liberty Financial or World Coin, the or the orb scanner? >> Potentially both. >> Potentially both. The Kretzu. put them all together. No.
2:26:42
Uh, world knowledge answers that feels like something high value searches. >> Yes. Not highly monetizable. Yeah.
2:26:52
>> And so maybe there's some bifurcation where the user activity when they want world knowledge answers that is a cost center and when you want to do agentic commerce and shopping that's monetizable. >> But apps want both.
2:27:06
>> But apps want both. companies want both types of searches because I would assume consumers >> I would assume I would assume that what like the world knowledge answer what headphones should I buy that's a question that I would want the new Siri to answer and then I would want it to
2:27:22
buy buy them for me why not >> more data hello in the chat says more data for Google let's give it up for Google they are just >> data world champions >> it is it is wild people yeah this is uh this was not on many people's bingo cards early earlier >> of course it probably Mark up. Everyone's everyone's
2:27:38
Everyone's everyone's ripping.
2:27:40
Uh the Mag 7 remains undefeated.
2:27:44
Um anyway, uh speaking of Mag 7, let's go to Lulu uh Msurvy's breakdown of the Tesla master plans V.
2:27:53
She's highlighting V2 and V4, and she calls it founder writing versus committee writing.
2:27:59
And if you look, and we touched on this yesterday, if you look at the way the the the first two master plans are written, it really does feel like Elon just tapped it out on the phone almost like couple bullet points here and there.
2:28:13
There's one chart in there.
2:28:13
Then when master plan V3 comes out, it's this 40page PDF with a bunch of charts.
2:28:19
Maybe he was involved, but the latest version uh does feel very dry.
2:28:24
And uh Christian Kyle had a very good reply.
2:28:28
He just replied with the M dash because of course the Tesla master plan V4 had 14 M dashes in it.
2:28:36
It's a lot of M dashes at a time when the M dash is highly controversial.
2:28:41
I was I was thinking about the M dash.
2:28:43
I don't know how to create an M dash.
2:28:46
Like I don't have the button on my keyboard.
2:28:49
I have a minus sign and I have an underscore.
2:28:54
>> All you have to do is hit the the d uh dash button twice and >> minus minus and then space and and it turns it into I never learned how to use >> You can also do shift.
2:29:03
>> You were too poor and then you were too rich.
2:29:04
>> I was too poor and then I was too rich to use the M dash. I'm not kidding.
2:29:06
I've never like you can look at any of my writing in any of the scripts I've written or blog posts.
2:29:12
Like I just have never used the M dash. I don't know why.
2:29:15
>> I was pretty devastated by by Chad GBT just stealing it.
2:29:19
>> You were a big MD guy before.
2:29:21
>> It's just it's very functional.
2:29:22
>> I'm just all about the comma.
2:29:22
Like why do you ever need an M dash when you can just use a comma, you know?
2:29:26
just use a comma, you know? Like so in the Tesla thing how we develop and use autonomy >> it's more than dash and it's a statement >> why just use a comma I I don't know I don't understand do you Tyler do you understand why the mdash is valuable at all we should just destroy it we should
2:29:42
just get rid of it I don't think it makes any sense >> yeah I mean there's some like stylistic value >> what is the stylistic value just looks nice or something >> looks maxing you're writing >> aura farming the mdash I just don't like it doesn't have spaces around it like the the comma is just so much cleaner. Use a comma, use a period, use a space.
2:30:00
Use a comma, use a period, use a space.
2:30:02
It just like did Shakespeare write M dashes.
2:30:07
>> Let's figure that out. >> I think so.
2:30:08
>> Who was the first person to really dominate the M dash?
2:30:10
I see it in I see it all over the place now.
2:30:12
I see it I see it in the I mean it's in Is it in the journal usually? I don't know.
2:30:15
I don't see a lot of it in the journal. No. >> Okay.
2:30:19
Well, if it's not in the journal if it's not in the journal should be in your it should get out of the training data.
2:30:24
Some of the most well-known users of the M dash.
2:30:25
I asked Gemini because I I just feel like biased. >> Uh James Joyce. >> Oh, okay. >> Emily Dickinson.
2:30:36
Uh >> Mash >> Vladimir Noacov. >> Noacov. >> Master of style.
2:30:41
Noacov used the M dash to create a specific kind of voice and pacing.
2:30:46
>> No, Shakespeare did not use the M dash.
2:30:49
Uh, does the Bible does the Bible?
2:30:52
>> JK Rowling has been a notable user of the Mdash.
2:30:56
Maybe she is an AI that traveled back in time >> to bring Harry Potter forward >> to bring the chosen one.
2:31:05
>> Does does the M dash occur in the Bible? No.
2:31:09
The Bible, at least in its early printings and manuscripts, did not use M dashes.
2:31:13
ancient texts, the Hebrew Bible and the Greek New Testament were originally written without punctuation at all. >> Not in the Bible. >> This is hilarious.
2:31:20
So, Chachi says, "No, Mdash.
2:31:22
The Bible at least did not use M dashes.
2:31:25
The the Greek New Testament were originally written without punctuation at all.
2:31:30
Mdash, just continuous script.
2:31:33
Breaks, pauses, and emphasis were conveyed by spacing, rhythm, or oral tradition. modern editions.
2:31:38
Some 19th and 20th century English Bibles, especially in America, started using dashes to mark sudden breaks or interruptions in thought, but this is a modern editorial choice, not a part of the original text or the earliest print traditions.
2:31:53
So, the Mdash is relatively recent punctuation invention.
2:31:56
I think we got to return.
2:31:58
We got to get rid of the M dash. Destroy the Mdash. I'm sick of hearing it.
2:32:03
Take it out of your writing. Instead, get on bezel.
2:32:05
Your bezel concier is available now to source you any watch on the planet. Seriously, any watch. Go to get bezel.
2:32:13
>> Alex Conrad went viral yesterday.
2:32:13
He shared a screenshot from Bloomberg Airwan.
2:32:18
The cult Los Angeles grocery chain is opening its first New York City tonic bar inside a private West Village Podell Club. Okay.
2:32:25
>> He said none of these words appear in the Bible. >> Oh, there we go. Related to the Bible.
2:32:29
Uh this is the this is the Arowan thing in New York that Emily Sunberg broke. Very excited. Very excited.
2:32:33
Um uh did you see that um Josh Kushner was at the US Open and >> he's so famous >> he's so recognizable they didn't need to give him a little Chiron a little lower third they had to explain who Adam Silver was >> a man that needs no introduction.
2:32:53
>> Who is who is Adam Silver again? He's like a sports guy.
2:32:55
Adam >> I don't know if you're serious.
2:32:59
>> He's the commissioner of the NBA. What's the NBA?
2:33:01
That's a guy that said, "Get ready to learn Chinese."
2:33:05
>> The NBA is the National Basketball Association.
2:33:07
Um, so what is is that a sport? What is basketball?
2:33:12
Basketball, uh, basketball is a dynamic team sport where two teams of five players try to score points by shooting a ball through an opponent's hoop. Okay.
2:33:23
So, so, so the guy on the left apparently he he I guess he runs a company that where people they have teams where they have five players each and they they try and throw a ball through a hoop. Okay.
2:33:39
Uh, so there's there's Adam Silver, that that the basketball guy.
2:33:43
Then there's Josh Kushner.
2:33:44
Everyone knows Josh Kushner. Then there's Bob Iger. Who is Bob Iger? Who is Bob Iger? Okay.
2:33:49
Bob Iger is the CEO of Disney. What is Disney? What is Disney?
2:33:56
Disney is a global American mass media and entertainment conglomerate known for its familyfriendly content and and content and services including theme parks.
2:34:07
What What is a theme park? [Music] A theme park.
2:34:15
A theme park is an amusement park. Oh.
2:34:18
Oh, it's an amusement park, but it has a unifying setting or idea.
2:34:22
almost like somewhat of a theme to it. Yeah. Okay.
2:34:27
>> The themed amusement park. Okay. Park. >> Okay.
2:34:30
>> So, anyway, I think we cracked it.
2:34:30
So, obviously everyone knows Josh Kushner, uh, Thrive Capital, but >> Adam Silver, good to know about >> I guess he made his money like with some game where you throw basketball through the hoop and then Bob Iger does he's a media guy, I guess. Yeah. Cool.
2:34:46
Well, I'm glad that they put their names there because >> otherwise I'd be lost. I'd be lost.
2:34:53
Anyway, uh Robin Hood, former guest on the show, Vlad Tennv said, "Investing for a living could replace labor in a post AAI world."
2:35:01
Will Brown quote posts it gets 1.
2:35:04
3K likes says Roblox CEO David Bazooki has said that gaming for a living could replace labor in a postAI world.
2:35:13
>> Podcast hosts John Kugan and Jordy Jordi Hayes say that podcasting for a living could replace labor in a post AI world.
2:35:20
I I you know what I would hope replaces labor in a post AI world?
2:35:26
>> Pull-ups and push-ups. >> Wandering.
2:35:27
Just going from wander to wander.
2:35:29
Finding your happy place.
2:35:30
>> Finding your happy place.
2:35:30
Booking wanders with inspiring views, hotel grade amenities, dreamy beds, top tier cleaning, and 247 concier service.
2:35:35
It's a vacation home but better. >> Better.
2:35:40
>> And in just 6,000 days, you'll be able to just spend all of your time wandering around. Hopefully. Hopefully.
2:35:46
Uh, last post before we go into our next guest.
2:35:51
They're in the reream waiting room.
2:35:52
They're about to come into the TV pan Ultradome. >> Get that gong ready.
2:35:56
>> Would you buy Ilia Sutskiver merch?
2:35:56
Uh, Alps has printed Ilia's head on a hat and also on a mouse. Went mega viral with 2. 6K likes. People are excited.
2:36:10
>> I mean, the mouse looks clean. Ilia.
2:36:13
Uh you uh Tyler, you've said that Ilia is like the best aura farmer of all time. Something like that.
2:36:20
>> He's a goated ora farmer. Yeah.
2:36:22
>> He But I feel like in terms of his aura farming >> explain that like like I'm a hundred years old. >> Yeah.
2:36:27
I But I would argue I would argue that his aura farming strategy is do nothing win.
2:36:33
>> I think that is an example of or farming.
2:36:35
It's like it's kind of like a uh like a nonchalance, you know. >> Yeah.
2:36:40
He has a certain Jennqua. >> He has a >> Yeah.
2:36:45
>> Don't nonchalant for nonchalant with Ilia. That's my advice. >> You don't nonchalant. >> Don't do it, dude. >> Don't do it.
2:36:53
He will not post up like this.
2:36:55
>> He will out nonchalant you for sure. For sure. You'll get roasted. Don't even try it.
2:37:00
Also, don't go for fun with our next guest, >> Ilia or Richard from you. com. Oh, he did. >> No.
2:37:08
Oh, I thought that was news.
2:37:08
Anyway, we got our next guest in the reream waiting room coming into the TVPN Ultradome. >> Welcome.
2:37:15
>> We got Richard from you. com. How you doing? >> Very well. How are you guys doing?
2:37:19
>> We're doing fantastic. It's a wonderful day.
2:37:21
We're having a great time.
2:37:21
Uh, what's new in your world? Give us the news. >> Any big numbers?
2:37:27
>> Yeah, we just raised $100 million at a$1. 5 billion. >> Boom.
2:37:33
Uh, when did you start the company again?
2:37:37
uh in 2020 >> overnight success.
2:37:39
>> Nothing like a 5year overnight success. Love it.
2:37:41
Um give us give us the update.
2:37:44
You were on the show was it uh I'm forgetting was it maybe three months ago at this point? >> Mhm. Yeah. Yeah.
2:37:50
Main main thing since then is we kept growing more and more aggressively.
2:37:55
Uh like we have over a billion API calls a month now.
2:37:58
There are not many other startups.
2:38:01
In fact, I can't think of any other startup at that scale now.
2:38:05
And these API calls give search results for both people directly, but also for LMS like the way we search is going to change, right?
2:38:14
So, you have this whole Google thing that's unfolding now.
2:38:18
But that's kind of the the last uh you know, sort of past um of of searching.
2:38:23
Now, people are going to search more and more through the LMS and LMS can search hundreds of times and then summarize all of that content for you, right?
2:38:30
So it's a whole new world and we're building composable infrastructure layers for companies and startups massive consumer companies like Dr.
2:38:39
Go uh and also enterprise companies like Harvey and Windsurf uh the NIH is a customer view.
2:38:46
com telegraph like lots of different organizations uh both for the APIs but then also we built endto-end solutions cuz not every company is ready to just like take in an API and may have an epic AI transformation.
2:38:58
So, we're doing both of those together. >> Yeah.
2:39:01
When when did you realize that that it made sense to combine those efforts?
2:39:04
I'm I'm sure early on companies like may maybe that maybe that you know actually building out these uh that this infrastructure for companies was not something that you were selling and then you realized like hey we in in order to actually unlock the value of our product we need to we need to kind of like handd deliver some of these features. >> That's right. Yeah.
2:39:22
For the last couple of years, we were the most accurate answer engine uh in the world.
2:39:26
But normal consumers, they care more about marketing and and fun ads and stuff like that and designs, but companies kept coming to us and be like, "We did a benchmark.
2:39:37
You are the most accurate. We need that."
2:39:39
You know, there are hedge funds, the NIH, like journalists like that really care about accuracy.
2:39:42
And so they were like, "We want the technology, but we don't necessarily want it on. com.
2:39:49
We wanted inside our own products on our own websites in our own apps and so on.
2:39:54
And so at some point there's so much market pull there for the technology that we said let's build out a proper sales team.
2:39:59
Let's really go to market with those APIs in an enterprise context.
2:40:04
>> Give us your reaction to the Google news today.
2:40:06
They beat the charges almost.
2:40:06
I mean they were found guilty but then the remediation battles. They won the war.
2:40:12
Uh you're obviously an expert in this category.
2:40:14
Uh walk us through how you process the news.
2:40:19
Yeah, I mean I think overall it goes in the right direction um in terms of giving uh some more access to certain companies um for their index and some of their data.
2:40:28
Uh at the same time, you know, we're a startup still and by the time this gets really implemented, you know, they're probably going to try to appeal it.
2:40:40
>> Really, we were really struggling to understand what giving the search index one time and then on ongoing basis means.
2:40:46
It's only like some percentage of the quer data based they're giving you data based on some percentage of your query. >> Yeah.
2:40:54
Can you explain like what exactly is available?
2:40:56
Can I just go get this data? Can you. com go get this data?
2:40:58
Can anyone get this data?
2:41:00
Like what does it actually take?
2:41:02
Is this just like Microsoft Bing and the other like duck.
2:41:05
go like the big competitors? Are they named?
2:41:07
Like how does this actually work? >> Yeah.
2:41:10
So no one fully knows yet, right?
2:41:12
there's like recommendations from judge and then like so there's like a ton of meta within eh not company meta um but >> insider dealing >> um but like my hunch is uh the one the most extreme scenario here would be like they have a full-on API the way you.
2:41:31
com right now sells it, right?
2:41:33
Which could be good uh for some people.
2:41:35
My hunch is they're going to try to drag their feet as much as possible on that for as long as possible because that is very much core IP for them.
2:41:43
Um, and then they're also going to realize that the index, the way it used to be built was for people to decide which of 10 blue links to click on.
2:41:52
Our index now is looking very different. Uh, it can go deeper. Uh, it can crawl more.
2:41:57
It has these decomposible components and it actually gives you much more content per link back rather than just a short snippet.
2:42:06
the way like the Google search results would.
2:42:08
And so by the time this all comes out and is might become available maybe as an API, um it'll probably be somewhat outdated for the use cases LM need.
2:42:20
>> Do we need an API here?
2:42:20
I feel like if I have an AI agent that has a browser, the browser can go to Google and search for me and then scrape the results.
2:42:29
Like is not the the front end the API?
2:42:32
not the the front end the API? Like we does Google have a like a blocker on this like can openai not just Google things like they certain their employees can Google things I imagine um but can they not like resell that to me in their chat app like what's the dynamic there >> yeah it's a really interesting world actually you know there are not many uh
2:42:54
real web indices out there and you have a lot of startups including some of our competitors who essentially just do what you described uh through so-called SER APIs and proxy networks where you have your phone, you have your smart TV, uh, and you install some app and that app then has some SDK installed somewhere where if you're not using your phone or your TV, it becomes an IP address. >> Interesting. >> Interesting.
2:43:18
>> And then pretends to be a user, goes to Google, scrapes the content from a search query in that, sends it back to centralized IP, and then folks sell search results, but they're really just Google results.
2:43:29
Like literally biggest competitors in the consumer space are just really fast at scraping Google results and then connecting it to an LLM and doing all of that. It's it's hilarious.
2:43:39
Now the problem with that is that a if you're a bigger company like OpenAI or or Facebook Meta, like they wouldn't want to send all of their data and all their queries to Google, right?
2:43:50
They're literally trying to compete with them.
2:43:51
So that's not an ideal setting.
2:43:51
Um two, it doesn't really scale.
2:43:54
um like cuz Google can and does shut down these proxy networks all the time and they try to block it and have captures and all of that and then three as it you know as you go through someone's random phone and maybe they did click on something now it's really slow and there slow response times and so where we actually have benchmarks that we can you know back up we can go on.
2:44:15
com and find them like we are super fast and we're more accurate than Google serve APIs and that is really unique in the market. What about this news?
2:44:24
It just broke that um Apple will be potentially partnering with Google to have uh Siri powered by some sort of version of Gemini.
2:44:36
Was that on your bingo card? Was that expected?
2:44:41
Does that seem like a reasonable uh kind of end state of the market uh dynamic?
2:44:43
I was I was talking about this earlier. >> Feels very >> Yeah.
2:44:51
something that feels like it'd be on your on like your forecast given that you guys are helping a lot of companies build these sort of like knowledge. >> Yeah.
2:45:00
Like if you're if you're in like business 101 going to Silicon Valley, you would say that like the ability to search and get great results is valuable.
2:45:08
Therefore, Apple would be paying Google for search results.
2:45:10
But in fact, the money flows the other direction because the search because Google's making $60 billion a year or whatever off of uh off of Safari search results.
2:45:20
And so how do you see the relationship and the and the economic flow d uh changing there?
2:45:24
I think the news report was that Anthropic wanted 1.
2:45:29
5 billion and Apple said that's too much.
2:45:32
We're going with Google and Google will be getting less than 1.
2:45:34
5 billion maybe from Apple for the rights to use the LLM.
2:45:40
But what yeah what's your take on all that? >> Yeah.
2:45:43
So a couple different angles here.
2:45:45
So one, it's surprising that Apple cannot do it themselves still. Like it's kind of crazy.
2:45:49
uh and surprising they're like you know trillions of dollars worth and and somehow are not able to execute on this themselves.
2:45:55
Um the second thing and you know they have great privacy at Apple but then you know they partner with companies uh that have a different stance on privacy.
2:46:03
So there's like interesting complexities there.
2:46:05
The second thing is that uh indeed you know one of the biggest changes also uh of the um uh of the ruling today was that Apple is will continue to be allowed to take the 20 billion to not build their own search index. Right.
2:46:24
Um so that's that's a really interesting part of the ruling too.
2:46:27
Google is allowed to still pay Apple $20 billion a year to stay the default.
2:46:32
Um, so that is is a really important piece of this whole situation because defaults are very strong.
2:46:37
I don't know where I read this, but like 80% of all iPhone users never change a single setting.
2:46:43
Maybe not your viewers, but many normal iPhone users, they don't change any setting ever.
2:46:47
So, if you're the default, you'll be on there forever.
2:46:50
>> I wonder how I I mean, I imagine for me don't need >> I don't need to adjust the volume.
2:46:54
I'll never adjust the brightness of my screen. Not a single setting.
2:46:57
No, I imagine that it's like deeper in the settings, of course. That is hilarious.
2:47:02
Uh anyway, do you have anything else?
2:47:04
We're We have a couple other people in the >> re very happy to to hear about your your progress. >> Yeah. Congratulations. This is awesome.
2:47:11
I I >> It's my favorite new pun. Unicorn. >> Yeah. There we go. There we go. >> Unicorn. Unicorn. >> Fantastic. >> Well, yeah. Tremendous. Thanks for joining.
2:47:21
>> We'll talk to you soon.
2:47:21
Have a great rest of your day.
2:47:24
>> Our next guest is already in the reream waiting room.
2:47:26
We got Pablo from Happy Robot.
2:47:28
And I think we got some more news.
2:47:30
Let me put my pack in here so I can get ready. Let's bring in >> Pablo. >> Pablo, how you doing? >> Welcome to the show. >> How are things? >> Can you hear us? >> Are the robots happy? Are they sad?
2:47:44
Are they going to turn into Terminators? What's the plan? >> Can you hear us? Can you hear us? >> Sorry, guys. No worries.
2:47:50
Probably watching uh the live TV here.
2:47:52
We're gonna work on this. Send it back to you.
2:47:57
Uh but thanks so much for hopping on. Give us the update. Give us the news. What's the latest?
2:48:02
>> We just raised our Sears V 44 mil. Uh yes, go >> 44. Great number. Great number.
2:48:11
>> Take us through the story of the company, what unlocked this fundraising round, uh what are the biggest drivers of growth for the business? >> Yeah.
2:48:20
To set the scene a little bit for the for the audience, we're building uh the AI workforce for an entire industry for supply chain.
2:48:25
Okay, >> there's a lot of work that is very repetitive and manual in that industry.
2:48:30
Uh kudos and and take my my hat off to all of those folks that are running uh those operations every day so that you guys can have that very cool uh RAM TVPN hat on your uh doorstep every time you order an Amazon or any other platform. Right?
2:48:44
So we are powering those operations so that we take away the work out of work.
2:48:48
We're trying to uh lift off the the the mundane and repetitive tasks from those folks running operations in supply chain and logistics so that they can focus on the more strategic and higher value uh tasks.
2:49:00
We started over a year and a half ago raised our series A last summer uh on announced December last year raised 15 mil from from Anderson Haritch uh now we announced our our B with uh ben uh and follow on from other folks like YC and existency.
2:49:17
>> Very excited to be here.
2:49:17
Is it fair to characterize this as like AI ERP?
2:49:19
Like uh like how much of this is like uh like you know some sort of like point solution within the supply chain and operations stack versus like system of record.
2:49:33
>> We're really building that system of record that layer of interaction we call it.
2:49:36
So we define it as a layer of interaction, layer of um of connectivity if you will that sits on top of the actual data that already exists today.
2:49:45
You can have a a transportation management system, a a warehouse management system, an ERP.
2:49:48
If you're talking about the shippers and distributors, today we serve multiple verticals within supply chain.
2:49:53
Uh shippers is one, freight brokers is another one.
2:49:57
Ocean carriers is another one, right? But but right on, right?
2:50:01
Like this is exactly what we're doing.
2:50:02
We're building that layer of interaction so that users don't have to go and look for that little detail on the TMS.
2:50:06
Where the where the hell is my load, right? Where's my truck today?
2:50:10
Oh, let me just look it up on this messy UI from the 90 from the 80s, you know what I mean?
2:50:16
Uh, instead they just go and chat with their data.
2:50:20
>> And not only that, an AI also is exposed to the customers, to the vendors that are calling in every day.
2:50:24
We're automating a over million phone calls every week with our customers.
2:50:27
We serve eight of the top 10 >> million phone calls, >> a lot of lot of uh a lot of emails as well.
2:50:34
Uh ultimately, our customers come to us.
2:50:35
customers like DHL >> or uh Uber Freight come to us to uh automate what their team doesn't want to do. >> Yeah. What's the story? >> Yeah. So, so how Yeah.
2:50:44
Have have you guys had had a more enter, you know, working with Uber, Freight, DHL?
2:50:49
Are you taking more enterprise focus because I know there's a long tale of players in in logistics and and and supply chain broadly.
2:50:58
Uh but but are are you focusing there or going up market?
2:51:02
>> Fully focused on on enterprise.
2:51:02
Uh >> we're very lucky to have been able to to cater to these enterprises from very early on.
2:51:09
Um I think AI has unlocked that capability in startups.
2:51:12
Maybe 10 years ago it was harder to tap into the enterprises.
2:51:18
>> Today they just understand that they don't have the AI capabilities themselves.
2:51:23
So they're just looking at it at whoever is tempted or or willing to go into that space.
2:51:27
We were early on in the space of supply chain and logistics and we've kind of defined that category for AI agents in this space.
2:51:33
So they they really don't have anyone else to go to.
2:51:36
They just come to to us as a trusted partner and that's really what our customers are looking for.
2:51:40
They're looking for a for a for an AI partner really.
2:51:45
>> Uh you're based in San Francisco. >> Yeah. >> Fantastic.
2:51:48
because there's this big German company that's been in this space forever and I can't wait to just like fully put them out of business and just make America dominant in enterprise resource planning. Let's make it happen. Jordy, anything else? >> No.
2:52:04
What were you doing before this out of curiosity?
2:52:08
>> I was doing my PhD in actually Germany.
2:52:10
I was in >> for all three founders are one of my co-founders is my brother whom they've known for a while and the other one is my best buddy from college from from Spain.
2:52:21
We studied in Madrid but yeah know the the company's is based out of SF.
2:52:25
We have offices in Madrid as well opening up in in Chicago and office now because of all the freight and logistics that happen.
2:52:31
>> Maybe you got to take the fight to Germany.
2:52:32
You got to you got to invade Germany.
2:52:36
The big boys the big boys. >> I love it.
2:52:38
couple couple brothers armed with with $44 million ready to do some international business. Love it. Fantastic.
2:52:46
>> Um, >> thank you so much for joining.
2:52:47
Congrats on uh on on all the progress. >> Congratulations.
2:52:51
>> I'm sure you'll be back on soon given the past couple raises.
2:52:54
I'm I'm sure you you'll you'll be >> I'm excited. Let's do that. Let's bomb for that.
2:52:58
Appreciate the >> We will talk to you soon. Have a good one. >> Great chatting.
2:53:01
>> Our next guest is in the reream waiting room already.
2:53:04
We'll bring in Will from EXA with another massive fundraising round.
2:53:08
Uh you can do the honors on this one, Jordy.
2:53:10
Uh let's bring Will in from the reream waiting room into the TVP Ultradome.
2:53:15
Welcome to the stream, Will. How you doing? How's your day? >> Hello. How you doing? >> What you got?
2:53:20
>> What are where where are you sitting right now? You're >> on a train.
2:53:23
>> I'm in a phone booth within our Okay, cool. We need some of these.
2:53:27
>> That looked like it was like some type of like tractor or something.
2:53:29
This is the uh this is the the physical instantiation of the lock the great lock in of of September to December.
2:53:39
>> You get locked in booth. Fantastic.
2:53:39
Uh you've clearly been locked in. What's the news?
2:53:45
>> Yeah, big big day today.
2:53:45
We just raised a series just announced our series B uh uh $85.
2:53:53
>> Sorry, couldn't hear you. Couldn't hear you.
2:53:58
>> Oh yeah, Peter Fenton. That's exciting.
2:54:00
What's it like working with him?
2:54:02
>> Yeah, I mean, he's a legend.
2:54:02
He uh he's super experienced.
2:54:05
He's taken seven companies to IPO.
2:54:07
He really he just honestly his vision for EXA was just like matched or exceeded ours.
2:54:12
And so that was really exciting to work with a VC who just like saw what we saw and saw how big this company could get. >> Yeah. >> Yeah.
2:54:20
Uh so he's joined the board.
2:54:20
Had you worked with him before or is this new? >> No.
2:54:24
No, I met him like like a month ago, month and a half. >> Month ago. Nice.
2:54:27
Yeah, >> fast friends and partners.
2:54:30
>> Uh, so yeah, take us through the the story of the business.
2:54:32
I mean, only a couple years old, well on your way to an overnight success.
2:54:36
I think if we check in with you any decade, it will be pretty clear that you're an overnight success.
2:54:41
Uh, but uh, take us through the history of the company, uh, where you are now, kind of what what what's been the key growth driver.
2:54:49
>> Yeah, so we actually started in 2021, so summer 2021. This is way before CHBT.
2:54:53
And the idea was like, you know, at the time GB3 had recently come out and it was like this magical thing that could understand like a whole paragraph of text.
2:55:00
And then at the same time there was Google which felt like it hadn't changed in a decade.
2:55:02
So the idea was what if we could build a search engine that was as smart as GB3, something like fully understand understood the web and fully understood your query and get you like way better results than Google.
2:55:10
And that's how we started.
2:55:11
Uh so not necessarily a search engine for AI.
2:55:13
It was more like a search engine for nerds because we were building it for ourselves.
2:55:16
Uh and then when Chhat came out a couple years later, uh it turned out that like the search engine we were building for ourselves for nerds was actually perfect for AIS because AIS and nerds are very similar.
2:55:25
Uh but yeah, I mean it basically we had to go build a search engine from scratch for years. Uh which is really hard.
2:55:30
So we did, you know, we bought a GPU clust a million dollar GPU cluster after YC.
2:55:32
We trained you know a ton of different models, tried a ton of different transform architectures until we had like a new type of search engine.
2:55:39
So, so the uh so the GPUs are trained to actually So you're not doing you're not doing crawling on GPUs, right?
2:55:46
That's like traditional CPU workloads, right? >> That's right.
2:55:50
So we have our CPU batch processing and then we train models on our GPUs. >> Okay.
2:55:54
And uh and yeah, what there's been a ton of news today in the search engine world with the Google news like what what's been your interpretation of it? >> Oh yeah.
2:56:04
>> Oh yeah. I mean there's so much like what's crazy like AI is very exciting but then search for AI is like now the most exciting uh space is really cool >> um I think everyone's realizing that uh like sure like we want smarter and smarter LLMs but really we want more knowledgeable LM like we want to connect our LM to like the best data in the world and search is a like basically the
2:56:22
most important tool to connect your LLM to uh and so yeah I mean that's pretty exciting the there's a Google news like for example like uh yeah I mean uh they're sharing their data has one thing about the search space everything's very counterintuitive so for example like if everyone now has access to Google's data, people are less incentivized to build new search engines, which is interesting. Um, so there's there's all
2:56:39
Um, so there's there's all sorts of counterintuitive like uh things in the search space. >> Yeah.
2:56:44
So what so yeah, how how does that shape like your strategy?
2:56:47
Because um it feels like right now Google's not only like the the they they have the search monopoly, they were kind of like, you know, found guilty of that.
2:56:56
Uh the remedies are not uh exactly putting them on the back foot. The stock's up 8% today.
2:57:02
And it feels like they're partnering even they're going even deeper with Apple potentially.
2:57:05
The the Bloomberg reporting that just came out uh is that there are rumors that uh that Apple will be partnering with Gemini to test out if Siri can be powered by Gemini which is obviously built on top of uh the Google crawler and Google's search index.
2:57:21
And so is the future for you look like a really long tale of you know tons of businesses that need to use some s some form of like best-in-class search and they can't go to Google for uh for a particular reason at like an API level because Google doesn't want to sell that as a product and you're there to sell that.
2:57:42
>> Yeah, that's exactly right.
2:57:42
Like a big difference between us and Google is that Google is not trying to be search infrastructure.
2:57:46
They're trying to be a platform like they want people to go to Google.
2:57:49
uh and uh but we are uniquely trying to be search infrastructure.
2:57:52
trying to be search infrastructure. So we want a long tale of companies like every company to be able to have the highest quality search inside their applications and so that makes us very unique like when we said we were a search engine for AI like a couple years ago uh no one really got what that means but I think that world has really played
2:58:06
out where now we have you know thousands of companies using Exa uh powering all sorts of applications uh whether internal or external uh with high quality search and and like you said like Google doesn't like is not doing that like they're not going to have an API because >> well there's a lot of searches that are valuable in the context of specific applications that are not even that valuable to Google, right? >> Like
2:58:25
>> Like >> yes, >> like like when you're trying to retrieve information that you can then take action on, that's not necessarily something that Google is like act, you know, able to run a bunch of great ads against. Is that is that right? >> Yeah, that's right.
2:58:37
And the business model determines basis model determines uh like how the search feels or how the algorithm works.
2:58:43
And so for example, like Google's really bad at recruiting.
2:58:46
Like you can't use Google to find like give me all the engineers in San Francisco who have like a PhD in machine learning and get a list of those things.
2:58:52
Like why why isn't Google good at that?
2:58:53
Well, it it doesn't make them more ad revenue.
2:58:55
Whereas we're very good at that because uh all sorts of customers AI applications want that high quality knowledge.
2:59:00
And so like you're the the end user you're selling to like really determines the search algorith which also makes us very unique. >> Yeah.
2:59:06
What is the value of actually training a model?
2:59:08
I feel like there's enough of a business.
2:59:11
I don't know if now's the best time for this for that particular business, but but like just being the best web scraper index.
2:59:17
You have all the every single web page perfectly indexed in a database that people can query.
2:59:24
That feels like a valuable product in and of itself.
2:59:26
Um, and then someone else brings their foundation model to bear on top of your search index.
2:59:33
And you're a partner to the big labs that train the big models.
2:59:38
Why are you training your own model?
2:59:40
>> Yeah, I mean well the easy part is actually gathering all the data.
2:59:42
I mean it's hard that you need like crazy scale infrastructure but it's it's an engineering problem once you gather all the you know trillions of pages.
2:59:48
The hard part is how do you filter those trillion pages to the right 10 or 100 pages in real time and that's where all the secret sauce is.
2:59:56
>> And so like we train our own we train embedding models because we see that as the like the the way to get the highest quality search.
3:00:02
Like how do you get like perfect search over the world's information?
3:00:04
you need to train all these like crazy neural uh models which is in contrast to the old world which is like Google for example mostly uses like keyword based method obviously they use a mix of things but like we we're very bitter lesson at exa and so we believe if you have the right uh you know training data set and like uh feedback signal you can get an extremely good search engine for the thing you're training for.
3:00:23
Yeah, I mean when you say you're bitter lessons pilled, I feel like that's rough because like who's more bitter lesson than Google?
3:00:33
Like they have the most data, the most compute, deep mind, all this other stuff.
3:00:36
Like like what is the can walk me through like the counterpositioning against against like Google's like business here?
3:00:40
I I the whole like Google will do it is like a complete trite over I don't believe in it.
3:00:47
I I'm bullish on you, you know, but like there is something weird about like what you just said in that I would expect Google to be able to move off of keyword pretty quickly.
3:00:55
Uh at least from a technology perspective. >> Yeah.
3:00:59
Well, there are two things.
3:00:59
So, one, it actually is kind of hard for uh for a giant shift to switch to a different algorithm.
3:01:03
It's like have that works really well.
3:01:05
It's it's very reliable and there are a lot of benefits to a keyword search algorithm.
3:01:08
Uh and so it's it's it's hard.
3:01:10
You know, you have a lot of people at the organization who are like been there for decades who like have a certain thing.
3:01:14
uh you have all sorts of like uh advertisements that are connected to the keywords actually.
3:01:20
But and I think the more important thing is that it comes back to the the way the revenue model.
3:01:23
So they are serving humans with ads and so >> to ser like and by the way Google is fantastic at that like Google has built amazing consumer search engine for humans to make money from ads and uh and optimize for what humans click on but that's not what AI applications want.
3:01:36
So a critical part point of Exa is that like we are optimizing for a different thing than Google.
3:01:41
Google is optimizing for humans and clicks and ads.
3:01:42
we are optimizing for AIs and AI applications and like all these complex searches that this new AI world makes. Yeah.
3:01:49
>> So that that explains like even if we both have a ton of compute uh we'll build very different search algorithms.
3:01:54
>> Yeah, it does seem like with the uh what what is it AI search overviews like those have at least anecdotally been hallucinating like crazy.
3:02:00
So um they definitely have some gaps to bridge between like some phenomenal stuff going on in Gemini and some frontier level uh like reasoning models and then some very reliable Google search results and then the the AI search overviews still they haven't fully solved the hallucination problem and some grounding in truth there obviously a problem they're working >> you guys compete with with you.
3:02:21
com we just had on Richard on is is that is that or is it is it it's not a lot not a lot of >> if I see him it's on site Well, it was funny if you both announcing fundraisers today.
3:02:33
I don't know if that would saw that. >> Yeah. Yeah.
3:02:37
I I mean they they mentioned that they do search and they also do AI agents.
3:02:41
Uh so uh like we are definitely like in a similar space.
3:02:44
I would say like the the space is very hot like the market everyone's realizing the market is massive. Sure.
3:02:49
>> Uh and so like you know I welcome other players there.
3:02:51
Uh I think you know we've been doing this for many years.
3:02:55
>> You welcome them but you encourage them to take the full Memorial or Labor Day weekend off.
3:02:58
Yeah, you guys should It's a hot space.
3:03:00
It's going to be a long road.
3:03:02
Just take the full 3-day vacation. We grind. >> Yeah. Uh, okay. Sorry. Last question for me.
3:03:08
Um, you bought a GPU cluster.
3:03:08
Uh, that can mean a million different things. Uh, what does that mean? Do you own the land?
3:03:15
Do you own the data center? Do you own the cards?
3:03:17
Do you own a space within Azure?
3:03:19
Like there's so many different are you partnered with the Neocloud?
3:03:23
What can you tell me about what it means to actually own or manage a GPU cluster?
3:03:27
What are the best practices like what actually works?
3:03:31
You're down dealing with depreciation.
3:03:32
There's so much going on.
3:03:32
Love to just learn more about like owning and managing a GPU cluster as a startup, not as some hyperscaler. >> Yeah, sure.
3:03:40
So, in terms of like getting GPUs, like there are a couple options like you could spin up on demand clusters. Yep.
3:03:44
Uh which is more expensive.
3:03:46
Uh but if if your workloads are like very like spiky, then that makes sense.
3:03:49
But for us, we're doing constant research.
3:03:50
So we want something that we're like constantly using get to like you know 80% utilization.
3:03:53
Uh when you start to have that kind of utilization then you want to get like either reserved or your own cluster and you know do the math and like uh you know it often makes sense to buy your own cluster if you're crazy enough to like set it up if you have the you know if you have the expertise to set it up and and uh you could customize in all all different ways.
3:04:08
Um and so yeah we kind of went that route.
3:04:11
Also it's just freaking badass and like we know we're going to get bigger and we want to have experience like building clusters.
3:04:15
Um, I would say like we're not.
3:04:18
>> So, you have servers like in your office like the cluster exists physically. Okay.
3:04:21
It's like George Hod literally has like server racks in his comma AI uh spot in in San Diego and it's like the craziest thing you've ever seen.
3:04:29
Then Nat Freiedman when he was doing NFTG they he spun up the Andromeda cluster and that was more like in partnership with someone else which made a lot more sense because like why do you have to learn how power routes necessarily like that's not necessarily the differentiator. >> Yeah. Yeah.
3:04:45
So we don't we're not big enough yet or our previous one wasn't big enough where we had to buy the land or buy the data center.
3:04:49
We have a part data center but you know as we expand at some point we'll have our own dude.
3:04:54
>> I see land and on your horizon.
3:04:54
Well >> I think you got to vertically integrate.
3:04:58
You got to buy oil and gas tract.
3:04:58
You you got to buy the the natural gas resources in the ground.
3:05:05
Buy the sand that you can turn into silicon. Fab your own chips. Design your own chips.
3:05:09
You got to be vertically integrated.
3:05:11
It's the only way to win. >> From sand to search. >> Exactly. from Sam to search.
3:05:14
That's a great That's a great line. Iron t-shirt.
3:05:18
>> Give him I' I've seen enough. Give him 10 billion. >> Give him 10 billion.
3:05:20
Thank you so much for hopping on.
3:05:22
Jordy, you got anything else? >> No, that's great. Awesome. Awesome progress.
3:05:25
Congratulations for uh breaking it down for us.
3:05:28
>> We will talk to you soon.
3:05:28
>> Congrats to the whole team. >> Have a great one. >> Yeah. Thanks, guys. Bye. Cheers.
3:05:32
>> Our next guest, Charlie from Orchard Robotics, is in the reream waiting room.
3:05:36
We'll bring in Charlie from Orchard. >> Charlie. Charlie. Charlie. >> Orchard. Orchard.
3:05:41
com, >> a teal fellow Cornell dropout. >> Wow. Flush. How you doing, Charlie?
3:05:49
>> Charlie, it's great to have you in the Ultra Dome.
3:05:51
>> Great to be on the uh the Temple of Technology, the capital's capital. The >> Welcome. >> There we go. There we go.
3:05:58
>> What What else can we do?
3:05:58
Can we play a soundboard for you?
3:05:59
Can we ring this gong for you?
3:06:02
Do you have anything for us?
3:06:03
>> It would be an honor to us. >> Give us something. >> Yeah.
3:06:05
So, today we announced our $22 million series A led by Quiet Capital and SH. >> Let's go.
3:06:12
So excited to finally have the space out there.
3:06:14
We've been growing the team a bunch.
3:06:15
We've been scaling up our technology into a bunch of new farms.
3:06:18
It's really been an exciting time these last couple of months.
3:06:21
>> Thank you for making cool looking robots.
3:06:24
We got to we got to pull this.
3:06:25
We got to we'll have the team >> pull up pull up the landing page.
3:06:27
I want to look through this.
3:06:29
Also, thank you for making a company with a name that directly translates to what you do. Orchard. ai. It's a farming company. Uh it's fantastic.
3:06:39
Uh, and I love your background, by the way.
3:06:41
How did you get into this?
3:06:43
Did you just like do a market map and figure out there's opportunity in farming or did you have some background? How did you like that?
3:06:50
>> My My grandparents were actually apple farmers and my parents agriculture before they immigrated to the US.
3:06:53
I grew up in Virginia, got into robotics early on, built my first robot when I was like seven years old, trained my first ML model in middle school, ended up going to school to study CS and mechanical engineering.
3:07:04
And this was kind of during the COVID years.
3:07:05
And um people love people to know this, but Cornell is actually the number one agriculture school in the nation.
3:07:10
And we have >> a robot, John. It's a beautiful robot.
3:07:14
You made a beautiful robot. >> Yeah, thank you.
3:07:16
It's our our our amazing team made that.
3:07:18
But um it's it's been a pretty long journey the past three years to get to this point actually.
3:07:23
And you know, the first iteration of this was actually this huge six foot tall autonomous rover that I built my dorm room.
3:07:28
And then we realized, wait a minute, you know, you don't really need a rover.
3:07:31
You can just have a camera because you have tractors that go through the farms all day already.
3:07:35
Um, but really it was talking to I think you know when I first started the company I talked to like a hundred different farmers just drove around upstate New York talked to everyone I could and basically learned that you know here in the US even on the largest commercial farms like these farmers are relying on very very small amounts of data to make every decision.
3:07:51
So, you know, say an apple farmer is going to send their 10 best workers out to the fields for an entire week to count and size fruit on trees.
3:07:58
And maybe with 400 man hours, they get to 500 trees.
3:08:01
Seems like a lot until you realize there's 5 million trees in the farm.
3:08:05
And that sample size is what they use to make every decision across their entire company, which is kind of insane to think about, but you know, we're helping them get >> So, you started starting with with counting, which sounds simple, but >> So, we we can do a lot of things.
3:08:18
We started with now we can count and size, measure color, measure grade, detect disease, measure growth rate, do inventories of plants.
3:08:27
Basically tell a farmer everything they want to know that can be, you know, gleaned from visual information out in the fields, which is, you know, pretty much all of the important information that they've, you know, been lacking for these last couple of decades.
3:08:39
>> Nerd out with me for a second on the hardware.
3:08:42
I see a bunch of different lenses and cameras on here.
3:08:43
I imagine that that you're driving right by a tree.
3:08:48
There's going to be apples that are obscured by leaves.
3:08:50
You need high definition, some 4K, 8K, some zoomed in, some zoomed out.
3:08:58
Like what's the optic stack that gets you enough resolution or data to actually determine, you know, is this an Apple or is this Apple healthy?
3:09:09
Like, walk me through that decision. >> Yeah, sure.
3:09:10
We have four lenses on each of our cameras and they're basically two stereo pairs. Uh we use stereo vision. They're RGB cameras.
3:09:16
They're pretty much off-the-shelf cameras.
3:09:18
Camera technology has gotten really good in the last couple of years.
3:09:21
Um, the real magic is in the machine learning models that we run on the edge.
3:09:25
So, we have some state-of-the-art multiobject detection tracking models that we run on cameras.
3:09:31
We have NVIDIA Jets and or inside every single one of them that run these models the edge.
3:09:34
And we can basically do things like, you know, of the hundred images we take every single second, we can tell, you know, even through occlusion, through, you know, things like leaves blocking fruit or fruit that are, you know, as small as 5 millimeters, we can actually size.
3:09:46
Uh you actually hit the nail on the head.
3:09:48
We have a really wide angle lens and a really narrow angle lens and that lets you know do things like zoom in to see very very small things but also things like a you know 12 foot tall tree from three or four feet away. >> Yeah.
3:09:59
>> Being a farmer and just refreshing your dashboard and seeing that you have a bountiful harvest must must must hit extremely hard.
3:10:06
Uh how do you how do you how do you sell robots?
3:10:08
Are are you uh like I imagine if this is replacing the need to send hundred, you know, hundreds of people or a bunch of people into the field to like physically count fruit, it's uh it can pay itself back fairly quickly.
3:10:22
But what what's the what's the business model?
3:10:24
>> Yeah, so we actually charge a per acre per year subscription fee.
3:10:26
So it's it's similar to SAS pricing where it scales a on the number of acres they use it on.
3:10:32
We since the hardware is so, you know, relatively inexpensive, we actually don't even charge for the hardware.
3:10:36
It's it's it's you know boxed in with the subscription fee.
3:10:39
So it's really easy and not capital intensive for a farmer to you know try on a couple hundred acres and scale into thousands or tens of thousands of acres.
3:10:48
>> Are those LED lights on the sides of the robot? >> They are. Yeah.
3:10:50
They're LED strobe lights.
3:10:52
So even at night we we can operate.
3:10:54
>> Oh, and you and you only strobe them when you're taking a picture with the cameras to save energy. >> Yep. >> Makes a ton of sense.
3:11:00
>> All of the cameras are powered.
3:11:00
So we we actually can power them off of any 12volt power source.
3:11:03
So we, you know, we have farmers that actually plug them into like the uh the 12vt sockets like the car jacks like on your car.
3:11:09
Uh we have, you know, like people who use external batteries.
3:11:13
You know, you can wire it into like, you know, the the car battery of any tractor or ATV.
3:11:16
It's really >> What's the What's the refresh rate on the flashing on the strobes?
3:11:20
Are you doing like one per second or something?
3:11:25
>> It's it's more It depends, but it's more than 15 times a second. >> 15 times a second.
3:11:31
You're flashing LED lights.
3:11:32
Is this going to make squirrels go insane?
3:11:37
>> Hopefully the squirrels aren't awake.
3:11:39
>> I might have a problem.
3:11:40
>> Yeah, go to sleep, squirrels.
3:11:40
Yeah, we're doing farming out here. >> We're farming. Get out of here.
3:11:43
Uh yeah, I mean I maybe there's a pest control.
3:11:47
We talked to the laser weer guy and uh maybe there's a pest control angle where maybe you can also >> You have a lot of VCs on >> tell you to pick a different.
3:11:54
Oh yeah, >> it actually it's it's a it's a good point that you brought up because you know we started this company back in March of 2022 and it was actually I think it was around the time that like the whole American dynamism thing >> and they were like please make weapons please >> make weapons.
3:12:11
I'll give you 100 million. >> Put a gun on it.
3:12:14
>> I I I I remember actually when I when I met my first like VC ever, they were like, "Oh, you should pivot into crypto."
3:12:19
Like that that was the because this is March of 2022.
3:12:22
It was before everything came, you know, tumbling down.
3:12:25
And you know, we were like, h, you know, I don't really want to do crypto.
3:12:28
I think, you know, this is my life's work.
3:12:29
I'm going to do this for the next 10, 20, 30, 40 years.
3:12:30
Um, and, you know, I think over the last year or so, there's been kind of this rise in, you know, robotics and American dynamism and, you know, like manufacturing, all these like industry things and, you know, suddenly, you know, agriculture and a tech is sexy now.
3:12:43
And, you know, it's been, you know, uh, when we went out to raise this last round, it was, I'd say, a bit, I don't say easy.
3:12:51
Nothing's ever easy, but you know, it was it was a lot better than, you know, when we were raising our first two rounds.
3:12:56
>> You could have gone into beans. Do you remember beans? >> Beans.
3:12:59
>> Hey, you know, I I've actually heard that uh coffee beans are are a pretty big market.
3:13:04
>> I'm talking about I'm talking about the crypto project beans.
3:13:06
I don't know if you're familiar with this, but it was popular on Twitter for like, you know, right around that time, right about when you would have been print uh uh uh pivoting from agriculture themed robotics into agriculture themed uh crypto.
3:13:19
It was a very popular crypto app where you would put your the whole thing was like staking coins, but the metaphor was like you stake your beans and your beans uh harvest and they yield and stuff and then every there were tons of people that all of a sudden they put in like $1,000 and then they like the the the harvest came and they were worth like a million dollars on paper, but then the the thing got hacked and so they lost all their money.
3:13:43
It was a wild >> I'm glad I'm glad you you tripled down.
3:13:47
>> Seems like you did something much more value creative than It feels like um I have to imagine uh this is like already helping solve labor shortages with farms and and the same thing that you know when people sell in AI to the enterprise
3:14:02
are saying we're freeing up people's time to do higher leverage work and like accounting and doing doing this stuff uh you know you're s just sort of like getting the state of things by by understanding like crop yields and things like that. And then I I imagine
3:14:15
And then I I imagine this is freeing up labor to like actually take action to increase yields and fight off uh pests and things like that that that uh actually impact the bottom line. >> Yeah.
3:14:29
You know, the big thing is, you know, not only is it freeing up labor from, you know, having to go out and do this counting and sampling work, but the perhaps the the more important thing that's actually being, you know, done in the immediate ROI a lot of our farmers can see is actually reduction in labor costs and crop inputs.
3:14:41
costs and crop inputs. Because right now what you know this is a bit of a simplification but what happens across a lot of these farms is that you know a farmer who's managing millions of trees and thousands of acres might go out and say hey you know this is like one you
3:14:54
know 50 acre plot of land I'm going to do the exact same thing to every one of the 50,000 trees in this 50 acre plot of land when in reality half the trees might only need half the amount of you know pesticides or pruning or you know fertilizers you know whatever it is they might be applying or doing to those trees. So it's very one-sizefits-all and
3:15:08
So it's very one-sizefits-all and you know we can tell these farmers things like hey wait a minute in this half of this block it only needs you know half the amount of pruning you only need to send half the amount of workers into that half and suddenly you're saving 25% of labor costs in that block.
3:15:22
So you know that's probably one of the first big things that a lot of our customers notice when they use our technology is just this you know ability to see where you need more of something and where you need less of something else.
3:15:33
And you can see pretty immediate labor and cost savings just from that alone.
3:15:36
But you know in in the long run we have this I guess this conception of what we call like an AI farmer which is that if we can see you know tens or hundreds or you know like billions of of trees across their entire life cycles across multiple seasons we can start training large embedding models on all of this data that can basically farm or know how to farm better than any human ever could because it has so much experience.
3:15:59
And you know from there it's like what could we do with that right we get down to the tree level and like prescribe you know individual recommendations to what every single plant in a farm needs and that's super exciting to me and I think that's ultimately where you know a lot of this technology is going to go over the next couple years. >> It's amazing.
3:16:14
>> I'm incredibly bullish on you and Orchard.
3:16:17
>> Extremely bullish for Arowan too. >> Very exciting.
3:16:20
Uh thank you so much for >> congrats Charlie.
3:16:22
Uh it's uh it's great to to get the story and uh I'm sure you'll be back on very soon.
3:16:27
We're excited for >> Amazing. Thank you, guys.
3:16:30
>> And send me Send me Send me your address, too. Uh DM. >> Yeah.
3:16:33
I'll send you an Orchard hat. Yeah. In exchange for this. >> Yeah.
3:16:36
We're going to need a robot to count and make sure nobody's overdosing on caffeine in this studio.
3:16:39
That's That's a problem we have. We'll talk to you soon. >> Great talking.
3:16:45
>> Have a great rest of your day. >> Um >> what a legend.
3:16:48
>> His product's called Fruit Scope.
3:16:50
>> And we got to talk about no scopes. 360 no scopes.
3:16:53
A Call of Duty movie is officially in the works.
3:16:55
This could be the second movie that Jordy sees in his entire life after Boron.
3:17:00
Borat will be the first one. Thank you.
3:17:04
>> Would you see the Call of Duty movie?
3:17:06
>> Uh, >> so Paramount also has the rights to expand Call of Duty into a multi into a universe of multiple films and TV shows.
3:17:13
>> I wouldn't just watch it. I would study it. >> Sit down and listen.
3:17:15
I would sit down and listen to the Call of Duty movie.
3:17:19
The Call of Duty movie seems like a no-brainer. Seems awesome.
3:17:22
Um, Dodford, a great YouTube creator, uh, says, "The sensible thing to do would be adapting Black Ops or Modern Warfare.
3:17:30
Instead, I fear they'll do a Minecraft movieesque comedy with trick shots and noob tubes." Uh, what do you think?
3:17:39
Do you think they're going to go slapstick comedy lighter PG-13 jokey or for kids?
3:17:44
Or do you think they will actually try and make it like Blackhawk Down gritty serious >> like you know uh >> brain rot or >> I think I don't think they're going to go comedy.
3:17:56
I think they're going to go uh Oh, Jordy saw Mountain Head. Daniel's correcting me. That's true. >> I did.
3:18:02
And I So this would be the third movie.
3:18:04
>> I felt like I needed to give a review. >> Yeah. >> A watch. >> Yeah.
3:18:07
And uh >> well, we'll have to give a review of the Call of Duty movie.
3:18:10
Obviously, everyone will demand it.
3:18:13
>> And listen uh well, we got to get over onto Substack.
3:18:18
>> We got to hop on with Philadelphia. >> That's right.
3:18:20
Uh no, but we actually are going to do a live over on Substack right now.
3:18:24
>> You can go watch us on Substack.
3:18:24
You might already be watching on Substack.
3:18:27
Uh we're going to be live with Emily Sunberg TB. We'll see you tomorrow. Thank you. We'll see you tomorrow. Have a great evening. Goodbye. >> Cheers.