Tuesday, November 4th

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Hey, hey, hey. Heat. Heat. Yeah, hey.

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>> [music] >> Hey, hey, hey. Heat. Heat. N. Heat. Heat.

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You came to this world to reach the stars.

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We came to this world to shape our future.

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We came to this world to shape our future.

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We came to feel the new [music] If you let me You let me [music] so crazy.

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[music] You're watching TBPN.

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Today is Tuesday, November 4th, 2025.

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We are live from Silicon Valley. >> That's right.

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>> Uh we're not going to say exactly where we are, but we're in Silicon Valley and we're hanging out with some absolute dogs today. So, we took on the road.

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Thank you to producer Ben for helping us get set up.

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And thank you for RAMP for making this possible. Time is money. Say both.

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Easy to use corporate cards, bill payments, accounting, and a whole lot more all in one place.

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Um, >> so glad we have Ben here to be our live studio audience.

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>> Yeah, you got to clap for everything. This is required.

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>> Uh, we have some breaking news out of Sequoia Capital just down the street from where we are.

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Um, they have a new set of bosses, new top dogs. >> Top dog alert. >> Yep. Top dog alert.

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Uh, they're going Linsanity mode and the Gradinator. >> The Gradator.

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Pat Grady and and Alfred Lynn are in.

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We haven't had Pat on the show. We've had Alfred Lynn. He's fantastic.

5:56

>> I can read through Roloff's message.

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He said uh they they love to structure these as emails.

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So subject a new gener generation of Sequoia stewards.

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Don Valentine founded Sequoia with the future in mind.

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He instilled a distinct culture focused on stewardship.

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We think of stewardship as leaving the firm better than when we found it.

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This belief has enabled successful intergenerational transfers and ensures we hire the right people who want to create a partnership that outlives all of us.

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Stewardship grounds our culture in an ethos of performance, excellence, teamwork, and continuous innovation.

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It also extends to our companies.

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Even though we're called an investment firm, we think of ourselves as company builders.

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Since 1972, Sequoia Stewards have transitioned the partnership from one generation to the next when they saw that the team was ready for the challenge.

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With each transition, a new generation is able to stand on the shoulders of those who came before them and build on and strengthen the Sequoia partnership.

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That moment has come for me.

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Today, I am announcing that Alfred Lynn and Pat Grady are Sequoa's new stewards.

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Alfred and Pat embody the cultural traits that have defined Sequoia for the last 53 years.

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They have exceptional performance, having partnered with companies like Door Dash, Service Now, Airbnb, Snowflake, Citadel Security, Zoom, Khi, OpenAI, Open Evidence, and Harvey. They are leaders.

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Alfred has co-led Sequoia's early stage business since 2017 and Pat our growth stage business since 2015.

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They embrace our apprenticeship model.

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They have a fearless and resilience fearlessness and resilience that's necessary to win in this business.

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They do not shy away from difficult conversations and they roll up their sleeves to company build.

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Let's give it up for rolling up sleeves.

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[applause] >> Let's roll up our sleeves.

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uh both with founders and within Sequoia, the two of them are true teammates to founders, to their partners, and to each other, they are the right pair to entrust.

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With the stewardship of Sequoia, like the stewards before me, I will transition into a new role advising the partnership while continuing to represent Sequoia on boards, I'm confident that Sequoa's ethos will endure and the deep bench of talent at Sequoia will thrive under Pat and Alfred's leadership.

7:56

Best regards, Rolloff, both.

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Uh, >> are you reading between the lines here?

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I think I know what happened.

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I think Roloff probably just recently got into racing cars and he's just like, I need to go fulltime. I need to go.

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I gota I gotta >> I found my real calling.

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>> I found my real calling. >> It's time.

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>> I'm going I'm going to spend more time.

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>> I can't wait another day. >> I can't spend Yeah.

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[laughter] >> Spending time at managing Sequoia as a steward is just it's not it's not reducing my lap times.

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>> I I put this post in from Alex because this was my first thought, too.

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Alex says, "Bro went out and said venture capital is return free risk and then handed over the keys.

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The timing is is interesting."

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Um that uh >> if you read too much in that I don't think you need that.

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He said that on the Delelfy Deli podcast. Is that right? >> I think so.

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>> That's that's such a funny place to go drop a bombshell and then bounce.

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I I I don't think you can read too much into it because it's it's uh but he doesn't do a lot of media. So I don't know.

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May maybe he was like I'm I'm out of venture. >> It's been a good run. Venture capital.

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>> Uh we'll have to keep keep tracking it.

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But anyway, um thank you to Reream for making this stream possible.

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One live stream, 30 plus destinations. Multiream.

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Reach your audience wherever they are.

9:15

Uh Anthropic is the new king of AI API sales.

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Boatload of new financials and projections below from the information.

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Uh, Anthropic this summer hiked its most optimistic growth forecast by roughly 13 to 28% um over the next three years and and is projecting as much as 70 billion in revenue in 2028.

9:34

Okay, so that's up from close to five billion this year.

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So five billion then 10 then 20 then 30 like they're more than doubling every year for the next three years. >> Pretty remarkable.

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Are you walking over here to hit the gong somehow? What are you doing? Oh, is I off mic? >> Yeah. >> Okay, thank you.

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[laughter] >> Um, >> we're back. >> We're back.

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Uh, the company expects demand from businesses for its AI models to drive that growth.

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Anthropic projected that its 2025 revenue from selling AC access to these models through an application programming interface will roughly double the revenue its bigger rival OpenAI generates.

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And uh, Peter, well, >> yeah, the notable thing here is they're projecting cash flow. >> Yeah. profitable in 2027.

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>> 17 billion in cash flow in 2028.

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Not something you see from AI players outside of Nvidia.

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>> I don't know from the way Anthropic talks about pre-training and scaling and new models, I would be remember the whole Daario idea of like each each model individually is cash flow positive, but you keep having to scale up by 10x.

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And so we're gonna do a10 billion dollar training run and then we're gonna advertise that over five years and it's going to look great, but in the short term it's going to look terrible and it keeps looking terrible because you keep scaling up.

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This is the exact opposite of that.

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>> I I wonder if there's >> actually to actually be cash flow positive at the company level.

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I have to imagine they would have to not do the next training round.

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>> Well, not do something that's 10x or or 100x. I don't I don't know.

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I I understand that like compute will continue to scale with with revenue.

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So they can still be like extremely compute scaling pled.

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Um but uh in terms of viewing the incremental progress on their models as uh essentially capax that puts them deep in a hole.

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It feels like there's some shift in the way that they're thinking about this or at least messaging it to the market.

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Um I don't know may maybe this is in reaction to uh that last quote that came out about uh each model being so so unprofitable in the short term.

11:46

Well, let me tell you about Privy, wallet infrastructure for every bank.

11:49

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11:55

Uh, so Peter Willford said, "OpenAI's plan, spend 115 billion to then become profitable in 2030.

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Anthropic's plan is spent six billion to then become profitable in 20 27.

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We'll be curious to see what works best."

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Um, people are are are the bub talk is going through the roof.

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It's going back and forth.

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Uh mass mimemetic theory, the the swing builder himself, the man who built the system swing, he was saying that Rune has become extremely defensive lately, taking shots at at former TBPN guest Rune and Jacob Rentamaki, another guest says, "To be fair to Rune, people have also been saying a lot of crazy stuff about Sam Alman and AI Capex Twitter discourse in general just makes me want to take a shotgun to the brain. so deeply midcurve.

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Um, and Mass is going back and forth showing that um, OpenAI has to 1,000x their revenue over five years to get to a standard 15x PE ratio, which is certainly not the goal for most companies.

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And I think Jacob makes a good point here.

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He says Palanteer's price to earnings ratio is 67.

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Meta is at Meta's at something like a 22 27 >> 27 to get to 15 is like yes that might happen as a 40year-old company but certainly not as a company that's tripling revenue every year.

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>> Also >> enterprise large language model API market share this graph this the this like study that was done is from Menllo Ventures who's a big investor in Anthropic and it was like a relatively it was I think a relatively small sample size.

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I mean, I think it could be correct about the about the market share.

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The market's growing super fast.

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It's much less of an issue and very clearly like the stated mission of OpenAI has never been like we're a pure play enterprise large language model API company. >> Yeah.

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>> It's been like give us credit in our price to earnings uh relative to our advances on science and our consumer app and our agent commerce and and our AI slop.

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The the other notable thing from that specific report was that uh >> OpenAI's share of closed source foundation models uh via API dropped from 50 to 30 50% to 34% across 2024. >> Sure.

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>> And then went down 25%.

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That's what it looks like.

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But I mean if the market's growing like how much does this really matter?

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Um it's uh but yeah they're they're going back and forth.

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Um they're they're duking it out.

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But Jacob Rinamaki uh shares something funny uh just a reflection on Nvidia that I wanted to share because it's the wojack meme of in 2019 people saying Nvidia stock is extremely overvalued.

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This was pre the Ethereum pump I believe and Nvidia's market cap was hundred billion dollars and it did seem like oh they just like make they just make chips like it's just like they they have like one product kind of oh they make great gaming graphics cards.

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uh it was at 100 billion then at 500 billion in 2021.

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Uh now now Nvidia did trade down crazy after the crypto proof ofstake move.

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Um but uh then in 2023 Nvidia hit one trillion and everyone was saying this has got to be the top.

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And then in 2025 we now see that the market cap is 5 trillion and the wjack is extremely dismayed.

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And pulling up this post from Trevor Scott when uh Nvidia, >> this was a crazy photo.

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>> This this pretty surreal to see this image surface.

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I'm surprised uh Jensen uh did this and allowed himself to be photographed uh doing it.

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But this was June 4th, 2024. Yeah.

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he uh was signing a woman's shirt at a conference and uh Nvidia is up uh 85%.

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And uh obviously a lot of folks were calling the top on this manufactur fake >> historically historically these these have been crazy >> uh top signals but um uh here we are.

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>> But I mean to to to steal man this like Jensen has always been a rock star.

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Like he's always like fashioned himself like a rockstar.

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It's not like he put on the jacket as at at the top.

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He's just always been wearing the he was born in it and so I think he's just a man who manufactures a new top signal every quarter and that makes him >> the arm link >> beer chugging.

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>> Yeah, we're going to look back on that in a year and be like how was that [laughter] not the top >> and you know that Korean fried chicken stocks were pumping? >> Wait, really? Because of what he said.

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>> Well, I think he was eating that >> there's a I don't I don't on Wall Street Bets 3 days ago.

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This could be a copy copy pasta, but uh there's a there's a post with 18,000 up votes that says, "I am financially ruined shortselling Korean fried chicken companies.

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I have lost everything and I'm not sure how to continue.

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This week I lost $472,000 shortselling Korean fried chicken companies.

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My idea was with the declining Korean population and the recent trend towards healthier eating [laughter] and vegan diets, there is an opportunity here."

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I did some research into consumer trends in Korea and determined that this would be a lucrative play.

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So, I shorted Korean fried chicken companies across the board.

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Unfortunately, earlier this week, Nvidia CEO Jensen dined out at a Korean chicken restaurant called Kaboo Chicken and Soul and pictures went viral of him enjoying fried chicken and beer.

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Stocks of chicken companies in Korea soared 20 to 30% and I was margin called. Everything is gone. >> It's great.

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>> Uh, I don't know how to continue.

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How could I not have known that Korean fried chicken is the future of AI? >> That's hilarious.

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Uh that does seem like a copy pasta, but the internet is such a wide such a big place that it is possible that there's one person that did that that actually yoloed their full full send.

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>> There's been crazier bets made on >> I mean, we know some retail traders who full into crazy thesis, like a crazy thesis every week.

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So, I wouldn't be surprised if someone out there did go giga short the Korean fried chicken stocks. It's totally possible. >> Well, yeah.

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If you were shorting a variety of restaurant stocks in the US this this year, you did incredibly well. >> They all did poorly. Is that the Zenic trade?

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>> Uh, I don't even know. I don't even know that.

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There was just a lot of these restaurants that started trading at like 50 to 100 times earnings.

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Um, we'll get to it later in the show.

18:21

I'll try to I'll try to put >> Well, before we move on, let me tell you about Cognition, the makers of Devon.

18:27

Devon is the AI software engineer.

18:27

Crush your backlog with your personal AI engineering team.

18:32

Um, there's some debate over how impactful the Chat GBT launch has been on uh job displacement.

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We keep going back and forth on this.

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I mean, I was working on a slide deck yesterday with Tyler and I was and we were mapping it out and I drew it out on I drew out the slide on the whiteboard and I was like, "Okay, now I need to get this this the picture of the whiteboard into Google Slides and have it like animate or get it into Figma and have it animate so I can actually use slides."

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And and I just like it there was still a disconnect and we still wound up doing a bunch of it manually.

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And there wasn't just like take a picture of something you scribbled and turn it into a presentation.

19:16

Like it's just we're we're not in that like the era of agents.

19:18

You said this on the show yesterday.

19:20

You were like you're like codeex or uh co Microsoft copilot doesn't get enough credit for bringing us into the era of agents.

19:28

But co-pilot is not actually an agent.

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It's it's like it's a co-pilot which is different.

19:34

An agent I see as a pilot. Yeah.

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>> C-pilot is like sitting alongside you doing spellch check.

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I would see like Grammarly is a full Grammarly the original Grammarly was like a co-pilot and then and then uh deep research is an agent and so I see >> they have some agent specific functionality.

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>> I see Devon as an agent.

19:51

I see codeex as an agent but uh but I I think there's still a there is still a big problem to solve of like what is the agent in every category?

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How can someone actually get to be reliable?

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So, I guess my point was like co-pilot is meant to be a way to orchestrate agents.

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>> They certainly want it to get there, but it it that's not how people use it just yet.

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yet. like for the most part it is like >> well I think the notable I think I think something notable about like when I think of the chat GBT like jobs displacement debate and discourse like I look at our company which is like >> despite a bunch of new tools popping up

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>> we still need to hire video editors we still want to hire writers >> there's like a bunch of these different roles that AI is great at like AI is I mean AI isn't necessarily great at writing, but it can produce a lot of writing, right? >> Yeah. >> Yeah.

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>> Uh AI, it's great at writing code, >> or at least it's great at at at uh increasing um productivity and velocity.

20:59

That just meant that we hired a software engineer. Yeah. Right.

21:02

>> We should we we should have a bigger debate about this.

21:04

I feel like me and you can debate this a little bit, but we we we should have some we should have some folks on the show to go back and forth on this chart because it is first.

21:14

First, I mean, we need to figure out how accurate is the how how accurate the actual chart is.

21:17

Um, because it doesn't include a y-axis and uh and it's one of those things where where we've seen these viral we these viral charts where when you go and recreate them, they kind of like, you know, don't quite uh line up.

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>> This this chart to me has always been about interest rates going through the roof.

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>> That that that's what it just happened to almost perfectly coincide with the Chad GBT launch.

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And then if you look at the growth of the S&P 500, like almost all the growth is driven by AI.

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So it's like the narrative here is just >> it's just weird because high interest rates, higher interest rates should should hurt the S&P 500, right?

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Like that's what happens when interest rates go up, like you flood to bonds, the equities sell off, like and that did happen a little bit in 2021 at the end of the top.

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Um but then we got the AI boom and and we wound up building um much bigger.

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And so uh Bubble Baby or something says uh Bubble Boy uh who we've talked about before says if only there was some major event a year before that was important and affected interest rates and hiring trends.

22:26

And so is this the is this the Silicon Valley crisis and then the or the Silic Silicon Valley bank crisis and and then the interest rate right hike that I think Bubble Boy is referring to.

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Uh and Young Macro uh is replying and says but shouldn't restrictive policy also have impacted growth proxied by the black line. Yes.

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And that's what I think we were getting at.

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Uh not saying the chart is great but I don't get the consensus push back which is that policy was being tightened around the divergent point.

22:54

Um, so yeah, I would love to dig into more of this because there's just so many different things that are going on.

23:00

There's like there's like the the cultural trends around the what what Elon did at X that that just kind of like woke a lot of CEOs up to this idea that they could run leaner.

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The interest rates is huge.

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The the different like geopolitical dynamics of like do you want to offshore or not?

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There's like so many different different aspects.

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And then even just even just if AI isn't displacing, but if CEOs think that AI is going to displace people or AI will be in five years, well, a lot of the reason why you hire someone isn't because you need that you need the job done today.

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It's because like >> you need time for them to ramp. >> Exactly.

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Like like the reason that a law firm hires a junior associate is because they need a new partner. Yeah.

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And the partner will they'll grow up into a partner in 20 years. >> Yeah.

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And I I've said this probably 20 times by now, but I think that every CEO, even if they're not if they don't have an AI narrative, wants an AI narrative.

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So if you have to do layoffs, why not say, "Hey, we're getting a bunch of efficiency out of AI tools and that's why we're doing layoffs or that's why we're not opening up a bunch of new."

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>> So the cost of capital went up, you have to pull back on a bunch of investments because you can't get cheap debt anymore.

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You're tightening your belt and then you wrap it in the AI narrative. Yeah, it is possible.

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Uh >> if you're worried about AI job displacement, why not invest in a SPV that has fees with 0% carry and a 7% onetime management fee? Just 7% tax immediately.

24:35

Uh this is not even the craziest that that uh we've heard about.

24:41

There's some out there floating around that are just 10% immediately. >> 10% off the top. >> Right off the top.

24:45

the 0% is great for the principal agent problem.

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Like sure that >> they're not incentivized just to raise as much money as humanly possible.

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>> I I mean it it feels like, you know, I've I've heard a lot of early managers like flip this around where they where they only get carry and they give on the management fee. Yeah.

25:04

Uh and they're basically working >> Yeah.

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Where they're charging like just an admin fee to cover the cost, >> barely anything.

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And you'll see people with like small funds that seem, you know, some somewhat sizable, but the actual management fee once they've given so many fees because they don't just come out with a three or 4% fee structure.

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They might have two 2% and then they're giving it away in a bunch of places to get early LPs on board.

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And so there's plenty of early stage managers that are making like 100K or 200K.

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Like they're just not taking that much home.

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but they're heavily incentivized on the carry side that if it works um they will they will wind up doing very well and so they're betting on themselves.

25:43

This is kind of the opposite of that.

25:44

[laughter] >> Uh anyway, let me tell you about figma. com.

25:47

Think bigger, build faster.

25:49

Figma helps design and development teams build great products together and get started for free.

25:52

Um Michael Bur has just filed his uh his 13F 11 days early.

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He has never done this before. Massive put.

26:01

He's going short Palanteer and Nvidia.

26:03

But didn't Pal didn't uh didn't Bur come out and say this is fake news?

26:08

>> Yeah, this is a I mean it's also >> Do you think people not understanding the notion the notional >> the market?

26:14

Do you think that they're maybe one way or another? >> It's a bubble.

26:17

>> It's a bubble is the entire account.

26:19

Imagine what happens after the after the bubble pops.

26:22

Like your account is just so sad.

26:23

Uh yeah, this is just this is just a I I think in general uh people continuously misunderstand uh the sort of like notional value versus the size of the actual portfolio. >> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.

26:37

Uh and also just like I I I think that there's there's oftent times where there's multiple funds and multiple vehicles within there and multiple multiple things that are hitting the reporting threshold and so there's so much like legal nuance.

26:49

I don't I don't know that uh it's super easy to just like see a a big number in a 13 and and tell a whole story around it. >> Totally. >> Let Bur cook.

27:00

We'll see what he has to say.

27:04

>> I wonder if Bur wish he played himself in the big short so that all the meme if if he knew all the meme images would be shared hundreds thousands of times a day.

27:13

It would just he would just it would be the ultimate uh marketing engine.

27:17

>> It'd be it'd be a very toler that that was a tough role.

27:19

I mean, it wasn't the toughest, I guess, in Christian Bales.

27:23

It wasn't the biggest transformation, but it was like I mean, Christian Bale is a great actor.

27:26

It's hard to >> It was It was perfect.

27:29

>> Is it called The Big Short?

27:29

Is he big or is he short?

27:32

>> Is he both the big short?

27:34

>> Both at the same time.

27:35

>> He He was He was defending his height.

27:37

He said, "I'm not 5'4" or something like that. I don't know.

27:39

[laughter] Yeah, >> I've been there. >> Cooked.

27:44

[laughter] >> Um, >> very cool.

27:46

Uh AMET uh shared some more on Palunteer earnings.

27:49

We covered it a little bit at the end of yesterday's show. Q3 they did 1.

27:53

18 billion of revenue up 63% year-over-year.

27:56

Uh 883 million of US revenue up 77% year-over-year.

28:02

397 US commercial revenue up 121% year-over-year.

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Almost half a billion of US government revenue up 52% uh year-over-year.

28:12

gap net income of uh nearly half a billion at 40% margin rule of 40 at 114%.

28:21

>> Yeah, government contracts boom.

28:21

This was particularly good for them.

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Although >> it's growing slower than uh commercial revenue commercial, but >> uh still people understand.

28:33

>> Why did the journal go with with uh government contracts boom? That's interesting.

28:38

Um data analytics company said it had 1.

28:40

18 billion in the sales for the third quarter.

28:43

Um Palander stock here another record high.

28:46

Man what a what a wild story the Palunteer story. It's over 20 years old.

28:54

>> It's down it's down 8% today.

28:54

So >> yeah, but still I mean like this is just such a fascinating company that just like >> beating like this and then beating like this and then trading down 8% the next day >> is uh shows that the market's a little shaky.

29:08

>> Another iconic quote from Karp.

29:08

Uh he says some of our detractors have been left in a kind of deranged and self-destructive befulement.

29:15

This remains the beginning the first moment of a first chapter. >> Yeah.

29:22

uh super uh super to be 20 20 years in and just be like >> I like that the Wall Street Journal summarizes what Palinger does.

29:29

The Denver based firm sells software to centralize, manage, and analyze large amounts of data.

29:36

>> It's like the simplest oneliner like >> what does Paler do?

29:40

>> Uh Palunteer was also in the journal today um because they're h they're they're they're hunting for they're hiring high schoolers now.

29:47

They're just like college is pointless.

29:48

we'll just hire you straight out of high school, which is insane and awesome. I love it.

29:56

Uh, one Palunteer post says, "College is broken."

29:59

And we talked about this when when they went like out with like the meritoc meritocracy like kind of campaign. Yeah.

30:05

Uh, but the journal is writing on it a little bit more.

30:07

Uh, the fellowship offers a path for high school students to work full-time at the company.

30:13

After deciding to apply, uh, Matteo Zenini found out that he got the fellowship at around the same time he got admitted to Brown University.

30:21

Brown wouldn't allow him to defer and he had also landed a full ride scholarship through the Department of Defense.

30:28

What a crazy >> What kind of track is that?

30:32

>> This [laughter] kid is is like uh what's a good example?

30:36

Uh, Seal Team Six level or something like this.

30:39

He's like an elite operator.

30:41

The DoD is like, "We will pay for your Brown education."

30:43

And then Palunteer's like, "But we'll also hire you."

30:47

>> I got a scholarship to be on the equestrian uh team at uh Brown.

30:49

Like, I got >> the DoD is paying me to be here.

30:53

Who is this Matteo Zenini?

30:56

This is a crazy crazy person.

30:58

Okay, let let's go through this.

31:00

I'm super interested in this now.

31:02

I said, "Uh, no one said to do the fellowship," said Zenini who turned 18 in September.

31:06

all of my friends, my teachers, my college counselor. It was a unanimous no.

31:11

His parents left the decision to him and he decided to go with Palanteer.

31:15

Zenini is one of more than 500 high school graduates who applied for Palanteer's meritocracy fellowship, an experiment launched under Alex Karp.

31:24

Palanteer is a data analytics company that has been known lately for its government contracts, including um with the US military and intelligence agencies.

31:33

uh Karp, who studied uh philosophy at Havford College and got a law degree from Stanford, said in an August earnings call that hiring university students these days meant hiring people who have quote just been engaged in platitudes.

31:50

[laughter] The inaugural class of 22 Palunteer fellows wraps up in November.

31:54

If they have done well in the four-month program, they will have the chance to work uh full-time at Palanteer Sans College degree.

32:01

The fellowship kicked off with a four-week seminar with more than two dozen speakers. Each week had a theme.

32:06

Foundations of the West, US history, uniques culture.

32:08

Uh they're talking about Abraham Lincoln and Winston Winston Churchill.

32:12

We felt obligated to provide more than the average internship, said Jordan Hirs, a senior counselor who works with Karp on special projects.

32:21

The interns experience show early on.

32:24

>> So they're getting some some classroom time in >> basically. Yeah. Yeah.

32:27

They're they they're studying.

32:29

They are studying some stuff.

32:31

They're studying game and they're also getting into the history books.

32:35

>> Yeah, it's pretty crazy. >> That's cool.

32:37

I do I I find it a pretty a pretty common experience to be like blown away by let's say like a a somebody in their like mid to mid to late 20s >> and discover that they didn't go to college or they dropped out very quickly.

32:52

like these people just uh I I I don't have a lot of um maybe it's maybe it's like uh I don't know may maybe it's something to do with like our network but uh it seems like you can basically get a three >> a two to threeyear head start by dropping out right and by the time you're in your 20s like you look you you kind of appear and are accomplished like somebody that that is in their mid-30s. >> Yeah. Yeah.

33:18

you just got to be ready to kind of build your own thing.

33:20

Like if you're if you're not capable of that, like you're gonna have a bad time.

33:25

Um but uh if you're if you're ready to like, you know, just kind of go independent and like lead from and just like solve any problem that comes your way, uh it's it's clearly very very accelerating to your career.

33:38

Getting on Vanta, automate compliance, manage risk, and accelerate trust with AI.

33:43

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33:47

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33:56

>> Couldn't have said it better myself.

33:58

John, let's get into this uh highlights from this article uh in the Financial Times.

34:02

The state of AI is China about to win the race. Clickbait. It worked.

34:04

Uh let's [laughter] get into it.

34:07

Uh Arnod Arnod Bertrand shared some highlights.

34:12

He says, "This is rare enough to be highlighted.

34:14

an actually good Financial Times article on the state of the AI race between the US and China. He put race in quotes.

34:19

Three interesting points stood out to Arnod.

34:22

Uh one, the fact that for a general purpose technology such as AI, long-term advantage often comes down to how widely and deeply technology spread across society.

34:31

This is because at the risk of pointing the obvious, benefits from a new technology come from using it widely, not just creating it.

34:40

>> You wouldn't get any benefit from discovering the steam engine in and of itself.

34:43

itself. what drove productivity gains and ultimately Britain's advantage in the industrial revolution was spreading and using this technology in its society and China has advantages here as the article notes since they're unarguably better at orchestrating societywide transformation as that's all they've

34:59

been doing for the past three decades they got some reps in uh to the point that US semiconductors uh export controls actually help China and AI since they pushed Chinese companies towards a different playbook pooling commute compute optimizing efficiency and releasing openweight models. Uh John John is uh I mean like the

35:17

Uh John John is uh I mean like the efficiency impressive but I mean the the actual I I would love to know about like the data point that I have not seen that I would like to see is is actual basically like consumption of AI like it's clear that they were able to catch up on creation of frontier model with deepseek but uh how much is actually getting implemented like If you look at in America, you would go to like what's happening on Open Router.

35:48

Let's look at OpenAI's revenue.

35:50

Let's look at uh Palunteer's revenue.

35:53

Let's look at Anthropics revenue, right?

35:54

And we and we can see that companies are paying to actually implement this stuff um to understand how close China is.

36:00

I'd want to benchmark that a little bit more and try and understand that. Anyway, we can move on. >> Uh good point.

36:09

Um the the the efficiency thing is real.

36:12

The other thing that's um uh fascinating is just like the you know there there's the energy abundance that China has right is like helps off offset the the uh like >> Yeah. >> Yeah.

36:27

If they can use more energy and be more efficient then then that's that's an edge.

36:32

>> Before we move on to the next point, let me tell you about graphite.

36:33

dev code review for the age of AI.

36:35

Graphite helps teams on GitHub ship higher quality software faster. Jordy, where were we?

36:39

Uh this is extremely ironic as the US effectively pushed China to develop models that are more efficient uh and open source which turns out to be a better strategy for global diffusion.

36:47

If you're a company in say Germany or Brazil, you can download Quan or DeepSeek, run it locally, fine-tune it for your market and never worry about API rate limits.

36:55

>> But does that mean that you win? Like it's like cool.

36:58

Like Lionus Torvoltz is not the most powerful person in computing.

37:02

Like he did great thing by creating Linux. It's awesome.

37:04

But he's not like he's nowhere near as powerful as anything.

37:09

If anything, it seems like you you kind of hurt the anthropics and the open AIs of the world that have uh we we Chesy was came out and talked about using Quen models at Airbnb because they were fast and >> cheap and they were >> I'm dying to talk to the CEO of Red Hat because Red Hat Linux is is built on top of Linux.

37:29

It's the ultimate like the the apex predator of the for-profit business built on top of an open- source uh software product.

37:37

And uh to to to actually understand how much leverage you get from developing something like Quen or Deepseek uh is a very open question to me.

37:49

I I I feel like it might be two orders of magnitude less value capture.

37:54

capture. If you look at I mean all of the Linux value creation I mean the creation is immense but the value capture is I think on the order of tens of billions >> and I think that the closed ecosystems iOS and uh iOS and uh and uh Microsoft Windows is in the trillions maybe I

38:15

don't know it's hard it's hard it's hard >> last point here which I think is the most notable um the oft ignored point of societal enthusiasm as the article notes the public in China is the most optimistic in the world about AI far more than in the US or the UK. Optimism

38:28

Optimism can be a powerful fuel.

38:30

Uh our nod says, "I often lament about this as a European.

38:35

We often have a doomous take on new technologies, AI very much included, which is a huge repellent for entrepreneurship and technological diffusion and that ultimately hurts Europe in a lot of ways precisely because the first point above advantages from new technologies come down to how widely and deeply it spreads in society.

38:51

If China is the most enthusiastic country in the world about AI, this in and of itself will help drive the widespread adoption that peroint. 1 point.

38:59

1 is actually what matters for long-term competitive advantage.

39:04

Um DJ Levy says, "The point made about operating under constraints reminds me of how post-war Japan adopted fine-tuned and promoted lean manufacturing to overcome scarcity." Um interesting point.

39:17

Um >> um there's a there's an article in the Wall Street Journal today about um about what happened behind the scenes between Nvidia and China.

39:28

Uh the the reporting says that uh that uh the Trump administration uh Trump aids sank Nvidia push to export AI chips to China.

39:41

President hearing from his inner circle opted not to discuss polity policy shift with Cinping.

39:47

They met in South Korea and an urgent issue emerged.

39:51

Trump wanted to discuss a request by Nvidia chief executive Jensen Wong to allow sales of a new generation of artificial intelligence chips to China.

40:01

Current and former administration officials said greenlighting the export of Blackwell chips would be a seismic policy shift potentially giving China the US the US's biggest geopolitical competitor a technological accelerant.

40:15

Wong who speaks to Trump often has lobbied relentlessly to maintain access to the Chinese market as they prepared to meet Cinping.

40:24

Top officials, including Secretary of State Marco Rubio, told Trump the sales would threaten national security, saying they could boost China's AI data center capabilities and backfire on the US officials said.

40:35

And so I I still wonder, I mean, it's like Nvidia is a $5 trillion company.

40:40

Like like if they could sell to China, how much like it's not like it's a$10 trillion company, is it?

40:47

Is it that big of a deal?

40:49

Like how how how big is the China opportunity?

40:51

>> It's the second largest computing market in the world. It's huge. That's right.

40:56

But so do you think do you think that there's five trillion at stake here?

40:58

Is that is that how big of a deal this is? I don't know.

41:02

>> Depends on how AGI pelled you are, John. >> I guess. Yeah. Yeah. I don't know. Yeah.

41:07

I mean, if I if if you if you think AI is like safe, but you know, it's you you want to sell it everywhere. Um I don't know.

41:14

I also just wonder like, you know, how many how many American tech companies have really been able to do well in China over long over a long period of time?

41:20

Uh it feels like even if you have the blessing of the United States, uh you won't have the blessing of the CCP forever.

41:25

So seems like a very temporary thing. >> Yeah.

41:29

Tesla was uh selling into China as long as well as long as it took for them to copy it.

41:36

Granted, uh chips are quite a bit harder to make than cars.

41:40

>> Before we move on, uh you might be aware that on the other side of the country, there's a mayoral election.

41:45

in New York City is choosing between Mamani and Cuomo.

41:50

And you can go to polymarket. comnyc to track it.

41:54

There are 12 hours 22 minutes and 33 seconds left.

41:57

And mom Donnie is at 95% chance.

42:00

Cuomo at >> around 90 earlier but as >> yes they they they they flipped in July and Mamani has been grinding it up from the 70% up to 95 where he is right now.

42:19

Uh and his odds look very good and um but you know there's a lot of people out there saying smart money is on Quomo. Maybe he'll win.

42:27

>> I think the degenerate money is on Cuomo. >> That's probably true. I mean, yeah. >> Yeah.

42:31

Somebody said that to me and I was like I was like I don't think that it's like hard to pull Quomo voters.

42:35

Like I don't know that much about it, but it doesn't feel like the Quomo voters are like are like under a rock like oh they don't pick up the phone.

42:42

Like if anything it's like the Mani voters he's bringing out like a new voter. So uh I don't know.

42:49

Uh you can go track it at polyarket. comny. >> Yeah.

42:52

>> Yeah. There there's been some debate on whether or not like foreign whales could be be uh kind of uh you know pushing up uh one you know pushing up so for some reason but there's so much uh there's so much volume uh on uh on this market that

43:12

uh it's I think at a scale that um someone would have to be extremely motivated to try to really >> I always forget that I believe we were doing the show during the election last year and I think we were so locked in on technology we barely covered it. >> I'm sure. >> I'm sure.

43:28

>> But but I think it hap I I think the election happened like because the election was in November and we started the show in October. >> Yeah.

43:35

>> So it's like >> well that was the first that was the first >> didn't cover it.

43:39

>> That was I mean but that was the first election that everyone was glued to the prediction markets. >> Totally. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.

43:46

But also, I think that uh it it it was exhausting and every show was obsessed with politics and so it was kind of refreshing to hop on the microphone and actually just talk about technology business >> skitso and on poster and break them down. >> Exactly.

44:05

and and there was truly I I still I still maintain that uh technology is like the most important story of 2024 for example and uh and tracking what's happening with open AI is is just as important >> most important to us that's for sure >> for sure for sure just like Julius.

44:21

>> for sure for sure just like Julius.ai AI the AI data analyst is the most important AI data analytics company uh connect [applause] your data ask questions in plain English and get insights in seconds no coding required

44:36

uh what's this post from Martin Skrey >> so uh a couple accounts were sharing uh a couple big shorters were sharing that uh >> uh uh copper GPU rental index with a big move down in late October now down 28% year to Just Dario says no signs of GPU over supply whatsoever. And Skrey comes over

44:56

And Skrey comes over the top and dunks and mogs uh by sharing uh some NeoCloud.

45:03

I I I don't know which one exactly showing that every single >> um uh every single uh service that that this cloud is offering is is out of capacity.

45:15

So A100s, H100s, B200s, GH200s, etc.

45:18

So, um definitely a uh tale of tale of two chips. >> Yeah.

45:27

Uh it's seems very very hard to to to uh to like in to assess the market based on spot pricing in the single dollars per hour.

45:44

like just the the the amount of like liquidity in the market if you want to spend 10 grand is probably way different than wanting to spend 10 billion dollars.

45:55

And when you look at what the hyperscalers and the frontier labs are are talking about, uh I don't think that they're that they're happy one way or another to hoover up a couple little instances all over the place.

46:10

I think I think they need they need a real data center. >> Yeah. Um, but I don't know.

46:15

We we haven't we haven't heard I like this is so interesting because like have you have you seen reports like we see reports when like a startup's website goes down, right?

46:28

Because it's like oh maybe AWS went down or maybe like they're just like not they're being sloppy, right?

46:34

Like like if especially if it's a company that somebody like wants to dunk on, right?

46:38

like a Cluey like if like if Cluey was like out of GPUs like people would dunk on Cluey, right? >> They were dunking. You didn't see this?

46:47

I mean they people uh were were showing >> but not for GPU.

46:52

>> No, they were just showing that the service was down. >> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.

46:55

That was just like the ser the status page and there was actually some FUD about that.

46:59

Like I wasn't sure if that was if that was super real.

47:00

was super real. Um but but there are plenty of reasons why in in any igol igopolistic like startup market if there's two companies that are duking it out and one of them is like oh they couldn't secure their GPUs to do their

47:13

inference to do their AI agents thing one of them would dunk right you'd think you'd see this but you don't and so I'm I'm much more I'm much more on the like there are generally enough GPUs to go around right now but I don't know I' I' I'd like to know more. Um, we do we I I

47:28

Um, we do we I I I know Tyler does does run into uh GPU constraints every once in a while, but um it hasn't been it hasn't been like a major majorly gating factor. Yeah.

47:41

>> Um most of it's available.

47:41

And if you need some GPUs or on demand clusters for generative media, head over to fall the world's best generative image, video, and audio models all in one place.

47:51

Develop and fine-tune models serless GPUs and on demand clusters.

47:55

>> Shopify, Corora, let's go. Adobe anymore.

47:59

>> Uh this was uh the data that I was referencing earlier in the show.

48:01

Uh QCAP shared uh year-to- date uh >> uh or actually sorry uh monthly performance from Canva, Wingstop, >> Shake Shack, a bunch of other uh restaurants in there.

48:15

CMG CMG is down 22% in the last week.

48:18

In the quarter they're down 27.

48:22

>> Hey, they're only down 47% year to date.

48:27

Um, so rough, >> but yeah, really rough.

48:28

Uh, Wasteland Capital shares, most of these restaurant stocks were trading at 35 to 100 times forward PE just recently. Many still are.

48:38

They were valued at a massive premium to the Mag 7 and any comparable growth stocks in tech and AI.

48:45

>> This is just a bubble deflating.

48:45

Bubbles can't be sustained indefinitely. Uh, >> okay.

48:49

Let me give you some more context on Chipotle because Chipotle was actually in the journal today. B10.

48:53

Uh, first let me tell you about Turbo Puffer Search everybody service vector and full text search built from first principles and object storage fast 10x cheaper and extremely scalable.

49:02

So uh the the Wall Street Journal says Chipotle's big bet on younger consumers is unraveling.

49:10

An uncertain US economy is catching up to younger Americans and Chipotle Mexican Grill.

49:16

The Mexicaninsp inspired chain has spent years cultivating a younger clientele, pitching its burritos and bowls as nutritious proteinpacked meals for gym bros and healthy eaters. What do you think, Ben? >> Are you still a fan? >> Do you still love it? >> I still love it. >> I still love it.

49:31

You're >> so It's so Me and Ben used to go to Chipotle every day.

49:36

>> No, I used to I used to get almost I I used to get easily 90% of my calories from Chipotle at certain times in my life.

49:42

And And anytime you were like on a long drive Yes.

49:44

Knowing that at some point in the drive you could pull over and have a nice fresh nutritious >> Yes.

49:53

>> slot bowl >> was just it [snorts] it it it was something to look forward to. >> Oh, it was amazing.

49:58

>> And now the last time I I pulled over and got Chipotle, I'm I'm like, >> "Oh, this is going to be rough."

50:04

>> Is it is it a quantity or it's a quality thing?

50:06

>> It's entirely a quality.

50:06

the quality is degraded to such an extreme degree that it's no I'd rather fast than eat Chipotle in almost in almost any situation.

50:15

Obviously, I'm uh >> I'm extra picky, but >> So, apparently, they've been going they've been going younger.

50:19

They've been targeting younger clientele.

50:20

Uh and it says here, Chipotle sponsors video game competitions, and some dedicated fans dub themselves Chipotle Boys.

50:34

That sounds like something they're trying to I haven't seen this at all. Have you seen? >> That's not good.

50:38

I I would never selfidentify as a Chipotle boy.

50:40

In fact, the existence of the Chipotle boy makes me never want to shop at Chipotle ever again.

50:47

Millennials and Gen Zers have helped power Chipotle sales despite rising menu prices and slowdowns at rival chains.

50:54

In recent months, though, a harsher economic reality has set in.

50:57

rising student loan payments, stagnant wage growth, and higher health insurance costs have bumped burritos down younger consumers priority lists.

51:04

They're just >> what what are they eating instead?

51:09

>> Dude, I've I've been in this scenario.

51:12

When I first came to Silicon Valley, Chipotle was like a once a month luxury.

51:17

>> No, at that same time, >> literally ramen noodles.

51:19

You go to Costco, you get ramen noodles.

51:20

Ramen noodles is truly 10 cents a meal.

51:22

like it is the cheapest cheapest thing.

51:27

>> I mean, yeah, the I I I$10 I sort of look back fondly on the days when Chipotle was felt and was a luxury when I was like okay >> getting extra meat and guacamole >> extra extra guac and extra meat was like I am a king.

51:45

>> Were you a Were you like a frozen chicken breast guy too? >> Yeah, for sure.

51:48

I'd just be looking I'd be looking at the the huge bag, you know, one pound bag of rice and the frozen chicken breast being like >> again, >> well, we meet again, my friend. >> We meet again.

52:00

[laughter] >> And then be like, I got to I got to mix it up and and have chicken and rice from somewhere else.

52:06

>> They're eating at home more often.

52:07

They're eating with us less frequently.

52:09

Chipotle CEO Scott Boat Wright, I like that name, uh said in an interview.

52:12

Uh, one is Sean Chopra, a 23-year-old law student at UCLA.

52:18

Uh, Chopra typically stopped at Chipotle several times a week, but lately he decided he should make more Mexican style food at home.

52:26

Okay, >> he's diying Chipotle.

52:26

Uh, it isn't that difficult to replicate what you get there. That's a great point.

52:31

Uh, he has to cut back his h Chipotle habit to twice a month.

52:35

Chipotle said last week that customer traffic slid over the three months ended September 30th.

52:40

For a third consecutive quarter, the company cut its forecast for same store sales.

52:47

Consumers from 25 to 35 who account for roughly one quarter of Chipotle sales are pulling back on visits.

52:51

Um other fast casual uh restaurant stocks including Cava and Sweet Green also declined ahead of their own earnings reports scheduled for the week ahead.

53:01

Thrifty eaters, there's more stuff.

53:03

revenue is growing because they're they're they're opening new stores.

53:04

But at existing stores, you see >> they got to go up market caviar bowls.

53:11

>> Yes, I'll have double caviar. I'll have double beluga. Can I get double beluga?

53:17

Yeah, we got a double beluga with extra caviar. [laughter] >> Yeah.

53:23

Can I have Can I have Wagyu?

53:23

A5 Wagu bowl with double beluga on top. Can I get that?

53:29

That's the only way that they're gonna survive.

53:30

They got to go out market the young people.

53:34

>> The permanent underass.

53:34

Do you remember the moment that you you you heard that you could just order even if you got a bowl you could get tortillas on the side? >> I never did that. Never.

53:43

I've never once wrapped my own because I just don't >> No, it wasn't even for me the calculus is I wasn't even going to wrap it.

53:49

It was just extra calories. >> Extra calories. Okay. Okay.

53:52

That that that's a true minmaxer. I respect that. I respect that.

53:56

I also respect Google AI Studio.

53:59

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54:01

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54:07

You can get started at ai. studio/build.

54:12

Let's move on to the timeline.

54:12

Burn Hobart, we got to get him on the show. It's been too long.

54:16

Uh, a bunch of people have mentioned how cheap restaurant stocks are.

54:19

So, I looked at Sweet Green and I would love to know what first principles you could use to deduce the existence of a fast food chain that pays 5% of market cap per year in stockbased comp.

54:30

This stockbased comp thing is very very interesting interesting to me.

54:35

>> They got I think we got got has to get this number up more into the Snapchat range where it's where it's every 10 years they >> so it's 10% of market cap per year.

54:42

This is an interesting metric.

54:45

I would love to know across across a wide swath of companies uh market cap per year in stockbased comp.

54:53

This is a deep research report.

54:55

Somebody's got to fire it off.

54:57

>> Uh I want to get the Sweet Green Founders on the show ASAP. Jonathan or or Nicholas.

55:03

>> Uh >> I I I wonder Yeah.

55:04

It just feels like at a certain point you're a mature business.

55:10

>> You can just pay cash, right?

55:10

But maybe stockbased comp is just advantageous because it's cheaper than cash somehow or it it changes the financial profile.

55:22

It feels like something that's more it's more just financial engineering and it doesn't it doesn't really create any value but like you have to play the game on the field, >> right?

55:32

>> I think they've they've always invested more on the software side than other fast casual chains as well.

55:37

fast casual chains as well. And so I just imagine this a lot of this is executives and then >> yeah I'm just saying like there is a world where where instead of instead of taking 5% of your market cap and giving your employees shares you just sell 5%

55:53

in the open market you get the cash and then you pay the employees cash right like that's those two should be economically equal and yet comp certain companies Snapchat among them uh will will pay stockbased comp and I feel like it's because the public markets price things differently. And this is just

56:09

And this is just this is just like the reality of the public markets.

56:13

Like right now, $1 of AI contract revenue is worth $4 in market cap.

56:19

Like we just see this again and again and again.

56:21

And so um if the if the markets are pricing things in a certain way, put the game on the field.

56:29

>> 38 billion over over seven years all of it to it.

56:33

But it's worth 15 billion.

56:33

It was a crazy moment >> of uh added market cap for Amazon. >> Yeah.

56:39

I mean at the same time like it it the reason you could price that just to steal a little bit.

56:44

The reason that you could price a $ 38 billion contract at 120 of market cap or something like that is well it's not just what's going to happen after that 30 mil 38 million 38 billion runs out. >> Yeah.

56:58

>> They're going to size up the next contract because they're going to keep growing like like this is the beginning of a long relationship.

57:02

I mean, it seems like this is a capital intensive business.

57:06

They're they're they're building restaurants.

57:09

It seems like >> you would want to compensate employees with stock, so you don't you like >> you have cash.

57:16

I'm sure it's not like an necessarily an infinite bid. >> Yeah. Yeah.

57:20

>> Um that's interesting.

57:21

>> Uh in other news, Mustafa Sullyman says, "It's an understatement to say a lot of us haven't felt good about our relationship with technology.

57:28

So, the absolute last thing we should be doing is making that relationship romantic. >> Shots fired.

57:35

Uh, let's check in with the stock.

57:38

The stock's down 69% today. >> That's not that much. >> Um, >> what is that?

57:44

>> Uh, it's like 60 billion though or something like that.

57:48

>> Well, a 1% move on them is is 40 billion right now. >> So, >> 38 billion.

57:54

>> 38 billion. So, so, so it's a it's 30 billion was uh the price of the of the adult content in in Excel that was just uh >> or it was already priced in >> not going to happen mostly priced in >> uh anyway you got to get your brand

58:10

mentioned in chatbt you got to go to profound reach millions of consumers who are using AI to discover new products and brands and get started um Josh Wolf who I believe we might see today I'm excited to hang out with him uh says history was just made. Lux family

58:24

Lux family company Anderal Technology uh Anderl has just successfully flown the first ever fully autonomous fighter jet ever in US history.

58:36

So this is the uh secretary office of the secretary of the air force shares uh today the air force made continuous progress in the CCA the collaborative combat aircraft program with the first flight of the YFQ44A developed by Anderil.

58:53

This is a milestone that shows how competition drives innovation and accelerates delivery.

58:59

He says one of two and then maybe doesn't.

59:03

>> It is a crazy looking jet. >> Yeah.

59:06

>> Like at some point it just starts looking like a missile.

59:10

>> Was this so so the the the the mainstream narrative is that this was created by humans.

59:16

>> That's what and I find that >> that's what >> almost impossible wants us to believe. >> Yeah.

59:21

That's the >> just like the Aston Martin Valkyrie.

59:24

Everyone wants to say, "Oh, this >> Yeah. Human hands made." Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. They got a carpenter.

59:29

They got a carpenter guy. >> Pull up.

59:31

That thing looks like alien technology. >> It does. It does. Make it make sense. >> Make it make sense. >> Make it make sense. >> Make it make sense. >> Uh linear.

59:39

Do you think linear was built by human hands? >> Also hard to believe. I know.

59:43

We know the team very well.

59:48

>> It could have been discovered though.

59:48

It could have been something that they unearthed. That's right. Yeah.

59:52

>> And it was and it was built by >> intergalactic SAS that landed here on Earth was discovered by humans to help >> build more and more great >> software and build products. Yes.

1:00:01

Uh you can go check it out at linear meet the system for modern software development streamline issues projects and product roadmaps.

1:00:10

>> You remember when we talked about that UFO ETF? >> Oh yeah. Yeah. Let's check it on that. How's it doing? Is it ripping? It's probably way up.

1:00:17

Tell me it's off because they had good stuff in there.

1:00:20

Like that was the funniest thing.

1:00:22

>> Okay, >> Procure Space ETF, NASDAQ ticker UFO. UFO >> up 40% all time.

1:00:28

So you you bought it in 20 >> you could have bought it at $25 a share in 2019.

1:00:34

It's currently sitting at $35 a share.

1:00:38

>> Invest in aliens people. Simple.

1:00:38

Um the uh procure space may provide diversification beyond the limitations of solely earthbound companies.

1:00:47

Um and uh I'll read from their uh in investment objectives.

1:00:53

Since the beginning of humankind, our ancestors have looked to the skies with immense curiosity in search of answers.

1:00:58

Space has always captured human interest, but recently the space economy has also captured commercial interests like never before.

1:01:05

UFO may provide diversification beyond the limitations of solely earthbound companies. Um >> huge. >> This is uh huge.

1:01:12

So um yeah, it's uh >> up 40% this year basically.

1:01:19

>> Where do you how do they have Sirius XM in as in their top 10 holdings. >> They have satellites.

1:01:24

It's they're out in space.

1:01:26

They're literally out in space.

1:01:28

How do you think they'll make contact?

1:01:30

>> What's the What's the UFO theory behind Sirius?

1:01:32

Not through Howard Stern recordings being blasted out into the the deep depths of space.

1:01:37

That's how we make first contact with Stern.

1:01:43

Howard Stern >> I can see it >> broadcast on Siri.

1:01:46

>> I don't think he's actually broadcast anymore on there.

1:01:47

Um >> uh did you see this company one energy?

1:01:53

>> I Yeah, you mentioned this and Harris nails it.

1:01:55

Harris Rothermel says, "Where are all these companies coming from? We're so back." And I completely agree.

1:02:01

Like we've been talking everyone everyone in tech has been talking about >> we don't know how to do this anymore.

1:02:06

>> Where are the solar panel companies?

1:02:08

Casey Hanmer's doing a whole press tour. He's been on Dor Cash.

1:02:10

He's been on Cheeky Pint coming on this show multiple times.

1:02:13

Like Casey Handmer has been saying like we're not making solar in America effectively.

1:02:17

And here's this company that's just uh that's just cooking setting out 14 megawatts of solar panels in a single day. They're producing 5.

1:02:25

1 gawatts annualized play pace.

1:02:28

I very very worry I I I I I worry that there's um uh Jerry Rig everything says he'll go and make a video for free. That sounds awesome. I hope he does.

1:02:37

So the thing that was worrying for me on this front is that the company T1 Energy uh is just TE on NY >> is valued at $683 million which felt very low in comparison to some of the American Dynamism uh companies that we've had on the show uh who have valuations uh far beyond this despite not not even uh you know 10% of the overall production capacity.

1:03:05

Um >> yeah, I really I really am so confused.

1:03:11

Like where did this come from?

1:03:11

This was something that everyone was saying is not happening in America, impossible.

1:03:17

Like we're so behind and this seems really good.

1:03:19

Uh I guess we need to actually handicap this against the real production numbers in China. What how what is demand?

1:03:28

>> Um >> also it seems like this is maybe a newer company that just hit 14 megawatts.

1:03:31

It's not like some background.

1:03:33

So, uh the company initially started as >> you did the deep research Freyer uh Freyer battery.

1:03:42

It was founded in Norway.

1:03:43

It merged with Elusa Energy Spa listed on NY as Frey. That was 2021.

1:03:50

Uh 2024, uh they bought Trinina Solar's 5 gawatt Wilmer, Texas module plant.

1:04:00

uh and uh only earlier this year they rebranded T1 energy and so this was an existing company that basic that spacked in the US that then bought a uh existing solar panel uh plant and so this didn't just get spun up overnight typical spec I guess it went out at 10 bucks a share

1:04:20

roughly four billion dollar market cap I think and now is traded down to $4 a share 680 million in uh market cap, but as we've seen with a number of these of these uh spaxs that went out and got crushed after the interest rates, like some of them build back. Like some of

1:04:38

Like some of them just just make it make it work after a while.

1:04:43

Uh I love the story of Dave, you know, Dave. com. I think it's Dave. com. >> Oh yeah.

1:04:49

>> So, uh it's a it's like a loan company.

1:04:52

I know one of the co-founders. >> It's Neo Bank.

1:04:55

>> Uh yeah, it's Neo Bank. >> Lending component.

1:04:56

So, uh, went out at 4 billion.

1:04:59

Everyone was like, "Awesome." Like, "We did it."

1:05:01

Trades [snorts] down like 99. 999%.

1:05:07

>> The chart is just absolutely brutal. >> The chart is insane.

1:05:09

It goes down so >> they've done a number of reverse splits because I think they actually went out at like $10 a share or something and now it's at So, so if you split adjusted, I think it went out at like $310, traded down to like five bucks. So, literally down 99%.

1:05:25

I think it was trading like well below cash for a while and now it's back up and is a three billion dollar company and so if you held on through all of that.

1:05:34

Um but there were like multiple people who basically at the IPO were like I could I I I'm worth 100 million or like my fund is returned and then it was like not yet [laughter] you're going to need to wait and then and then they actually came back. It's such a crazy story.

1:05:54

I mean that that that was during peak bearishness around neo banks. >> Yeah.

1:06:00

>> And uh >> anyways, turns out that high >> cheers salute to T1 Energy. Love what you're doing.

1:06:06

CEOs, welcome on the show.

1:06:08

We'd love to talk to you. This would be fantastic.

1:06:09

And if you need to sell your solar panels online, you got to pay taxes. Head over to numeralhq. com. Sales tax on autopilot.

1:06:17

Spend less than five minutes per month on sales tax compliance.

1:06:21

Um what else is going on?

1:06:21

I don't I don't think we can play this video of Sasha Nadella, but uh the BG2 podcast is still burning up the timeline.

1:06:29

It's uh it is the current thing.

1:06:33

>> Brad knows how to start a conversation >> clinic.

1:06:36

Um Martin Skrey is forecasting that Nvidia will get to 100 trillion in market cap.

1:06:41

Uh human thought is values by businesses.

1:06:47

Even desk email jobs require human thought, but higher priced jobs like legal, medical, finance can also be replaced by AI.

1:06:56

He's got a crazy bullcase here.

1:06:56

Uh we will see 10 trillion as I prophesized years ago.

1:07:01

This is short-sighted and extremely lazy analysis. Stock might goes down.

1:07:04

So he's he's uh he's he's uh putting putting it putting the screws to the to the Nvidia bears. uh in pharma drug.

1:07:15

>> That's a nightmare post for Nvidia Bears.

1:07:16

[laughter] >> This is really you're like you're telling me we got 20x upside >> and 25% of the cost of a human thinker a digital thinker is a great bargain.

1:07:25

digital thinker is a great bargain. 10 trillion in revenue creating 40 trillion in additional human thinking work 1000 trillion market cap that's his math uh pretty remarkable and I don't know >> yeah I think it would be awesome if

1:07:40

Nvidia can uh be you know scale to being valued at uh the uh global GDP for 2020 >> yeah I mean the crazy thing here is that he doesn't uh I mean it's already worth two candidates GP GDP wise although you can't really it's not really apples to apples Um but I I believe >> Canadian GDP is >> 2.5. 5. >> Yeah. 2. 24. >> Yeah. 2. 2.

1:08:04

>> Um but again GDP is more of like a revenue figure than like a valuation figure.

1:08:09

So you can't it's not really apples to apples but it's a funny comparison of the size.

1:08:14

>> Um anyway, let me tell you about Finn. ai.

1:08:16

The number one AI agent for customer service, number one performance benchmarks, number one competitive bake ops, number one ranking on G2.

1:08:20

Um, do you want to read this Chris Pike post about the end of cloud inference?

1:08:25

Is this uh is this worth? >> Looks very long.

1:08:28

I I'd say we should just have him back on again.

1:08:31

>> Uh, but I would be very interested to hear this thesis.

1:08:33

Um, I think it is too a little bit too long to read through the whole thing.

1:08:37

Um, but I'm glad that he's and and the same thing for for Casey Hanmer.

1:08:42

We should have him on the show to break down uh his his extreme hot take on NASA's Orion space capsule capsule. He calls it hot garbage.

1:08:53

that we we need to do like one of those complex style trading cards for one of the TVPN trading cards for the this quote like this is a bombshell quote and like in other contexts news outlets would put this in big quotes and be like quote flaming garbage like Casey Hanmer declares NASA's Orion space capsule in >> theyations $ 31.

1:09:15

6 $6 billion and they're planning to fly it around the moon with four astronauts next year and also test the life support system and heat shield which kind of sort of failed on the last flight.

1:09:27

>> Anyway, this was miserable to write. I hope you enjoy it. Link below. >> So rough.

1:09:32

Uh >> uh we got to talk to the astronauts that are uh >> uh potentially going to be going.

1:09:40

>> There's another What is this post by Robin here?

1:09:41

Robin says, "You can't make this stuff up. SpaceX Starship 2.

1:09:44

7 billion hls contract cost includes docking adapter NASA locked Orion 31.

1:09:50

6 billion cost and counting 19 in 19 years in development docking is an extra 2. 5 billion extra. >> Wow.

1:10:05

>> Yeah, the dock I mean >> the dock's going to be an extra two and a half. We're sorry. We know.

1:10:10

We know it's already been 31, but we're going to need another 2.

1:10:15

5 to really >> rough >> get this functional. >> Rough.

1:10:19

Well, if you want to dock your body in your bed, get an eightle. Go to eightle. com. >> Transition king. >> Get a pod five.

1:10:31

>> They said you wouldn't be able to do a transition like that.

1:10:35

>> I got an 86 despite uh despite the early takeoff this morning. Seven and a half hours. Not bad. >> I got to 77, I think. >> Oh, there we go. >> Let's see. But let me see.

1:10:45

I think I forgot to like turn it off in the morning. Yesterday I got 97. Today 77.

1:10:52

Not quite as good, but my REM sleep was up 17%.

1:10:54

So for that, >> there we go. >> Not bad, John. >> Pli pivoted.

1:10:58

We barely touched on this.

1:11:01

Maybe we mentioned it, but uh I don't know. Did they actually pivot?

1:11:04

It was It's a refinement.

1:11:06

It's certainly like a shift in the messaging.

1:11:08

Uh but uh let's go through some of the hot takes and then let's uh let's let's give our sort of analysis.

1:11:17

So uh Hero Thousand Faces uh great account uh says all this to be an AI notetaker app number 87 blah blah blah blah blah.

1:11:26

Uh Nizzy says clearly didn't pivot.

1:11:29

They're simply selling they're simply not selling to 20 year olds anymore.

1:11:32

So, the Cluey homepage now says the number one AI notetaker for meetings.

1:11:38

How would that have happened? There's so many.

1:11:40

How do you jump straight to number one?

1:11:43

>> Always claim the top spot. >> Number one in what? In what way?

1:11:45

Uh [laughter] number one in newness. I don't know.

1:11:51

Uh but the pitch is to get accurate notes, live transcripts, and follow-up emails at the end of every meeting.

1:11:58

Uh you can get it for Mac.

1:11:58

I felt a little bit bad because I was going so hard on AI notetakers last week.

1:12:04

[laughter and gasps] >> Yeah, you could read Toby Lkey tweeting this. No.

1:12:08

Yeah, no one had no one had seen this like this new landing page, but then Toby lookkey just posted last week.

1:12:14

Um, I'm I'm not a fan of those AI noteakers that come into the Zoom rooms.

1:12:19

>> Well, he kind of >> he said it was the equivalent of coming into a meeting with your fly down.

1:12:23

Doesn't sound >> uh he he kind of clarified it and said, "I like some of them.

1:12:27

I just don't like the the on bringing an entourage into the into the meeting.

1:12:32

>> The entourage is hilarious.

1:12:32

But uh so so I mean he said that bringing an AI noteaker to a Zoom meeting is the equivalent of having your fly down which seems negative.

1:12:42

And then you went you were like I don't like it.

1:12:45

I'm not I'm not letting me I'm not letting them in.

1:12:49

But I think clearly to their credit is more of a is a desktop product which means it wouldn't have to actually join the meeting >> which is >> so maybe they're building with the direction that people want.

1:12:58

I think what what they're doing here is is uh is like a half pivot right y >> uh they uh they had a lot of traction around viral marketing towards a cheating tool. Yep.

1:13:10

And I think they realized that that wasn't going to be a great, you know, a trillion dollar market.

1:13:17

And so they decided, hey, let's pivot to enterprise SAS. Yep.

1:13:21

>> Uh they had always been, I think, doing some of this, right?

1:13:24

I remember Roy talking about when he came on our show talking about uh how, you know, Fortune 500 CEOs in his DMs, that that kind of thing.

1:13:34

Um, but a half pivot is always dangerous because they're using this Cluly brand uh which they built a a very controversial brand really quickly and uh and then and then uh now need to kind of leverage that brand and the initial technology software that they built to try to pivot into a category that is uh kind of uh I mean just squarely at odds with the with the original brand, right?

1:14:02

If you have like an AI uh notetaker, uh you want to have, you know, full faith and trust in the team around uh a number of different things.

1:14:11

There was another post in here.

1:14:12

I'm trying to find it around um uh Ilia Sukar says, "Never kill yourself.

1:14:23

There's so so many postgranola depositions to read in the next decade."

1:14:28

Um, >> those granola deposition like when a when if somebody's in a deposition and the opposing council has a bunch of your granola transcripts and they can be like on this meeting that you had on this date.

1:14:41

>> You said >> everything is admissible in court if you have an AI following you around as opposed to a lot of people would say, okay, be careful about what you put in writing, but if you hop on the phone and you're spitballing on, oh well, like will we have monopoly if we do this strategy?

1:14:57

Like that's not going to be admissible in court. >> Yeah.

1:14:59

>> But but once you have a uh once you have every meeting transcribed, even like a little joke can be taken out of context in the court of law. So uh pretty aggressive. >> Yeah.

1:15:11

The question the question here is is there a market for an AI noteaker for the kind of people that Cle is really good at marketing to, right?

1:15:18

If you just hypers scale an AI noteaker to the Tik Tok, Instagram, younger generation that's not getting market marketed the same way as as Granola. Yes.

1:15:27

The challenge is like I don't think it's possible for them to make a 10x better product than Otter and Granola.

1:15:32

Otter's been around for a long time, but Fireflies. >> Yeah.

1:15:38

There's >> Fireflies has been literally doing it since like 2015. >> Yeah.

1:15:42

>> Yeah. It's it's some of these companies have been >> I think it's I think it's possible that they'll they'll still have this opportunity but it's possible like basically like killing just retiring the Culie brand and saying like hey this didn't work we're going to take another crack with it with a new brand >> and there were also there were also note takingaking uh there were also like like non like like I don't know what do you

1:16:04

call it like vertical SAS within note takingaking so like there are certain like just for SDRs call recording and analytics for uh like you're not just bringing the AI noteaker to your general meeting, your staff meeting, you're actually bringing your a special one just for your sales calls and then it's doing analytics on how you're performing, what what uh what uh points you're making, and then plugging all that into your CRM. If you need a

1:16:35

If you need a CRM, go to Adio relationship magic.

1:16:36

Adio is the AI native CRM that builds, scales, and grows your company to the next level.

1:16:41

Uh Daniel said, "Of course, I'll give the guys who gleefully break every rule access to all my meetings for a product experience I could get from dozen other companies."

1:16:50

What's interesting is uh go back to the cheat on everything uh pitch.

1:16:54

That was pretty hard because um what what are college students actually using? Like what?

1:17:03

Like from what we've heard the stack if you want to like cheat on your homework.

1:17:10

[laughter] What is the stack Jordy?

1:17:13

It's actually chatbt Atlas.

1:17:13

It's CHPT and Atlas because >> I talked to a student who said uh I started offering him dollar amounts on what it would take to get him to quit Atlas. >> Yeah.

1:17:24

>> We got up to $200 a month.

1:17:26

>> So So Atlas is is just like Cluey in the sidebar hanging out all the time while you're navigating your homework.

1:17:31

And then uh you we on the free tier you get 10 messages every 5 hours and one message per day with the GBT5 thinking model.

1:17:41

And then also if for $20 you can upgrade get more thinking models uh thinking uh and and for a lot of parents I bet you the parents will see oh chatbt yes that's like a professional tool like I'm happy to pay uh for your $20 a month plan like because it's like a tutor almost and even the $200 a month plan I bet is getting expensed to the parents right and so whereas cluey you come to your parent I want to buy this clue thing.

1:18:11

It's a little bit harder to underwrite. Uh it's much easier.

1:18:13

And then not to mention, this was your point that Gemini and Google is giving away a ton of queries for students and every student in college probably sets up a Gmail account when they when they get there.

1:18:25

So >> Roy posted uh a couple days ago, sometimes you have to listen to what the AB test tells you, even if it means changing the words on your landing page.

1:18:32

And he shows a chart of when they introduce a new language on the website and uh the growth uh accelerates. So, um, anyways, good.

1:18:41

Uh, >> did you see this pleometric post? Uh, talking to Claude.

1:18:48

[laughter] You have made the same mistake three times in a row now.

1:18:52

You should kill yourself.

1:18:54

Claude, consider the weight of a life such as mine. You're absolutely right.

1:19:00

>> This is so clearly fake.

1:19:00

But, uh, it's very funny and and, uh, sometimes Photoshop is very, very funny.

1:19:05

Uh hero Thousand Faces back on the timeline second time in the show uh talking about OpenAI marketing breaking down what all the different uh labs are looking like.

1:19:18

So OpenAI marketing ominous evil mega corp openai employees.

1:19:21

We are making the the world a better place.

1:19:23

We are building the most beautiful human friendly future imaginable.

1:19:26

Anthropic marketing the friendly a the friendly AI and enthropic employees.

1:19:32

Every single atom that is not a GPU is an atom wasted.

1:19:38

[laughter] I love I love checking in on the vibes on the timeline.

1:19:42

It's it's very very funny.

1:19:44

Uh if you want to check in on the vibes of the market, go to public. com.

1:19:48

Investing for those that take it seriously.

1:19:49

Multiass investing industry that yields trusted by millions.

1:19:51

Uh benchmark 2020 vintage fund marked at an 8x.

1:19:56

Tyler Hodgej has the story. They're doing just fine.

1:19:59

Do I think >> crazy >> for the most part because of Sierra? >> Yep.

1:20:06

>> As well as fireworks which we had on I think last week.

1:20:09

>> We had all three CEOs. The royal flush. >> Royal flush.

1:20:14

>> And I think what uh Ed Randall should do, new GP over at Benchmark is 10x that fun again. >> Yeah, for sure. >> Do another 10x. The 80x on top. On top. So Oh, 10x. Okay. The 8x is a base hit. 10x it again. Yeah. >> To a to an 80x run.

1:20:33

>> Well, well, we're going to get him on the show again.

1:20:35

We're going to talk to him about uh our expectations for him and we're going to tell him, uh, please don't let us down. Just one more 10x. >> One more 10x. >> One more 10x.

1:20:46

>> That's what the LPS are going to want to see.

1:20:47

It's going to give them faith. >> Yeah.

1:20:50

Uh, you're bringing fresh blood in there.

1:20:53

You got to bring in some fresh ideas.

1:20:55

Uh, you got to go on adquick. com.

1:20:57

You got to put benchmark on the 101. Put your face.

1:21:00

This is the first thing you do. Put your face.

1:21:01

Hey, do you need venture capital?

1:21:03

Call Ev Randall at benchmark >> 1800. >> 1800.

1:21:07

Let me just uh let me just say his phone number right here on the stream. Adquick. com.

1:21:11

Out of home advertising, but easy and measurable.

1:21:13

Say goodbye to the headaches of out of home advertising.

1:21:16

Only adqu combines technology, out of home expertise and data to enable efficient, seamless ad buying across the globe.

1:21:21

Uh in other news, people are making money on blueberries. That's right. Fruttist.

1:21:29

Fruttist raises $150 million to power the next wave of healthy snacking.

1:21:34

>> Fruttis has closed $150 million funding round led by JP Morgan asset management with Ray Dallio doubling down.

1:21:39

We got to try some of these valuing the berry powerhouse at over 1 billion.

1:21:43

The round also brought in Oak Tree Steve Kaplan and >> Alignment.

1:21:50

>> This is a crazy >> element Capital bringing total equity raised to 443 million.

1:21:52

The snacking company best known for its jumbo blueberries and new grab-and-go snack cups generated more than 400 million in revenue last year with blueberry sales.

1:22:03

They got to get an AI narrative here.

1:22:05

This this could this should easily be a 4040 billion uh company at this point.

1:22:11

>> Uh with blueberry sales tripling as Fruttus expanded to 12 uh 12,500 stores across 40 countries. >> Wow.

1:22:20

>> Uh they're trading at two and a half times sales.

1:22:22

times sales. I remember we uh talked about we talked about this company when they made the CNBC disruptors list and they were like above and I [laughter] was like why why is a big fruit company above and uh apparently >> fruit maxing is a good

1:22:40

>> strategy pulled some strings maybe >> Henry said Charlie Mer once said take a simple idea and take it seriously and sometimes the simple idea is obscenely large blueberries >> do you see how chaotic the uh the comments are on this Drew Fallon post. There's the the food manufacturing guy

1:22:55

There's the the food manufacturing guy is in there being like, uh, yes, GMO blueberries are all the ra like like I don't like the fact that these are GMOs.

1:23:04

And then Jeff Long Le Young is here and he's saying Driscoll's quality is more consistent and [laughter] it seems like everyone has their favorite fruit brand that they're that they're pushing on and uh it's knockout dragout fight.

1:23:16

Um, so will I am is in the news because he will be teaching a new class on a gentic AI at Arizona State University.

1:23:29

I don't know if this is the first time Willam has got in into the professor game but he's >> professorial >> professorial game but he will be teaching a general electrif general elective course uh in his Hollywood studio with some students in person and others joining from ASU classes.

1:23:48

So, the same the same people that thought Jensen signing >> that woman's shirt.

1:23:55

>> A lot of people are saying this is a top signal. >> This is the top. This has to be the top. Uh, who knows?

1:23:59

Uh, Kevin G is sharing that reminder.

1:24:04

>> Personally, I think that hearing how well I am is using AI would be interesting.

1:24:09

>> Yeah, >> I find that interesting >> and I'm I'm I'm endlessly entertained by there's somebody who has a craft.

1:24:16

Like, you might not like his music.

1:24:18

You might love his music, but clearly you know that he makes music. Like he has a process. He has a studio. He makes he makes hits. Exactly.

1:24:25

And there's a whole process for that.

1:24:26

You know, scheduling the the studio time assembling the music.

1:24:32

Here's here's why I think it's not so crazy. Kevin G is highlighting.

1:24:35

Will I was an early investor in Tesla pre Elon as CEO.

1:24:40

Open AAI, Anthropic, Twitter, Pinterest, Dropbox, Hugging Face, Beats, and Runway.

1:24:49

So, he's got exits, he's got IPOs, he's in the labs, he was even in the everything app.

1:24:56

>> He was in Hugging Face.

1:24:56

So, uh, put some respect on Will I Am.

1:24:59

Uh, not not a bad portfolio at all.

1:25:03

And uh yeah, I I I hope they end up open sourcing the class so we can we can study along with them. >> I would love to.

1:25:12

>> We should actually have Tyler.

1:25:12

Tyler, >> I was thinking about it.

1:25:15

>> Tyler, get ready to go to ASU.

1:25:17

>> Get ready to transfer.

1:25:20

>> We know you're studying physics, but we now need you to study. Aentic AI. >> I like that. >> That's very funny.

1:25:26

Uh, in other news, there's some >> In other news, bezel.

1:25:30

Your bezel concierge is available now to source you any watch on the planet. Seriously, any watch. >> Any watch.

1:25:38

>> Uh, do you know who kim.

1:25:38

com is or is this before?

1:25:41

>> This was kind of before my time, but I've seen some kind of vibe reels and I I think this guy >> he had a wild build.

1:25:46

He was running a crazy build.

1:25:48

He had a very like mob boss enforcer type build.

1:25:51

Uh, >> I mean, he's still running it, right? >> I believe so. But he's 67.

1:25:58

>> Oh, >> according to Wikipedia >> and prosperous.

1:26:01

com >> rose to fame in Germany in the '9s as a hacker and internet entrepreneur.

1:26:06

>> I got to I I got to get my >> arrested in 19 uh 1994 for trafficking and stolen phone calling card numbers.

1:26:14

He was convicted on 11 charges of computer fraud.

1:26:16

So, he's definitely kind of mob boss coded. >> Crazy crazy guy.

1:26:20

Um, and so L3 tweet engineer says, "You don't really see guys like Kim. com anymore.

1:26:26

Modern internet culture doesn't have room for these guys." >> It's interesting.

1:26:33

Yeah, you you see them a little >> AGM says they exist in crypto, which embodies much of the unhinged uh ethos of earlier internet waves just siloed in crypto, Twitter, and Telegram. >> So that's true.

1:26:46

But yeah, it it is the siloing effect is very very important.

1:26:49

I was thinking about that guy who takes those like funny pictures. He always goes viral.

1:26:55

He's like the I'm rich guy.

1:26:57

Like he kind of has that aesthetic.

1:26:57

But the weird thing about Kim.

1:26:59

com was that like he actually made a product mega upload that a lot of people used and it was like very controversial and >> it and no one else was getting rich on it.

1:27:12

It was for file transfers.

1:27:12

it. It was for file transfers. So I could I I you could it was it was in theory I could say hey we're going to record a podcast I'm going to send a 4 gig file to our editors like we use you know you could use we transfer you could use Google drive you could use any sort

1:27:26

of air there's a whole bunch of different services for transferring uh like files >> in the chat says 67 mentioned >> 67 mention there we go but um but uh mega upload quickly became used for for piracy so People would use it to upload uh software and movies, >> maps of the high seas. >> Maps of the high seas. Exactly. Uh so it

1:27:48

>> Maps of the high seas. Exactly.

1:27:48

Uh so it was just a wild time.

1:27:52

Um >> uh Andrew Curran says, "An AI generated song has entered a Billboard radio chart for the first time.

1:27:57

Zenia Monae, created by human Telicia Jones, who used Sunno >> also signed a $3 million record deal a few weeks ago.

1:28:06

Imagine just it up and then all of a sudden you got the $3 million record deal. >> Um 3 million.

1:28:13

>> It is funny that this is a Yeah, that's 2% of our revenue. >> AI song. >> We'd like that.

1:28:19

>> AI song that we can't play on the show.

1:28:23

>> Oh, because it's on >> It's an actual artist. >> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. We can't. Oh, that's annoying.

1:28:27

>> What's the difference between that song and the other 103 titles that have made the chart this year alone?

1:28:31

Zane Monet uh is an AIdriven artist, the product of a poet named Telicia Jones, and her song's Chart Arrival marks the first known instance of an AI based act to earn a spot on a Billboard radio chart.

1:28:42

The move also represents another step in the evolving relationship between AI tools and creators in the music industry.

1:28:48

I would like to see an AI musician uh not share their real identity and and uh >> Satoshi or sort of a Satoshi of of music >> music. Yeah.

1:29:03

Um not a pop star but a slop star potentially.

1:29:08

>> Uh well we have Michael, one of the co-founders of Suno coming.

1:29:13

>> Extremely excited for on the show Friday. Can't wait for that.

1:29:14

Uh, and if you want to log off, if you want to touch some grass, head over to Wander. Find your happy place.

1:29:22

Book a wander with inspiring views, hotel, great amenities, dreamy beds, top tier cleaning, 24/7 concier services, vacation home, but better.

1:29:27

They can't make you listen to slop if you're in your wander.

1:29:32

>> Uh, Guart says, "Like most of you guys, I didn't get into crypto to get rich.

1:29:34

I got into crypto because I believed in the vision of 500 different stable coins issued by 500 different centralized institutions on 500 different blockchains. >> It's hilarious.

1:29:49

>> The good news is you're going to be able to swap in and out of all I do wonder what the stable result is like.

1:29:52

What what is the final equilibrium?

1:29:55

Is it just endless proliferation of new coins or is it a consolidation?

1:30:00

because uh there was a war for store of value.

1:30:03

Like there was like Bitcoin classic and and uh and uh I can't even remember that other one.

1:30:11

There was the one that was like it's the gold to Bitcoin's gold and it wasn't I I can't believe I I don't even remember it anymore. It wasn't Ethereum.

1:30:21

It was a different one and it was like very popular for a while and it's just completely left my brain. >> Monero.

1:30:29

No, I'm so I'm I'm completely lost. I don't know.

1:30:34

Anyway, yeah, uh there were a whole bunch of those, you know, there was a war.

1:30:38

There was a war and Bitcoin won capital >> and then and then there's been a war in the other in the other chains and the other like values and I wonder if there will be a winner in in uh in stable coin or like or stable duopoly.

1:30:52

I mean, right right now, right now there there's uh I would it's effectively a duopoly between USDC and >> yeah, but there's still a lot of value in in creating new new uh stable coins. >> Let's look it up.

1:31:06

Uh stable coin market top stable coin tokens by market cap.

1:31:13

>> You have Tether at 183 billion, USDC at 75 billion.

1:31:17

The next largest is USDE at 9 billion. And below that is die.

1:31:22

And then below that, >> below that is world liberty financial. >> Wow. Remarkable.

1:31:32

Palmer Lucky has a post here.

1:31:35

He says, "I have this partially formed hypothesis that artist backlash against generative AI crystallized largely in response to textdriven user interfaces.

1:31:45

The art world has come to accept tools like Photoshop and earlier photography itself that still shares the aesthetic of traditional art creation.

1:31:56

If Midjourney, Chad GBT, Dolly, etc.

1:31:56

had interfaces along the lines of Nvidia canvas from 2020 pictured below. I remember this tool. It was awesome. Uh you could do that.

1:32:07

You could draw whatever whatever like outline you wanted and it would just automatically generate it and it looked great.

1:32:13

Uh Palmer says it would look enough like existing tools that that the critique would look purist and elite.

1:32:19

Art via command line on the other hand looks sufficiently other that you can easily bate the users as not artists.

1:32:27

You just typed a few words you aren't an artist has a better ring than your drawing skills rely on Photoshop somewhat more than mine. You aren't an artist. And that's really true. That's good.

1:32:42

I I do I was thinking about like I don't know if it's like bullcase for Adobe or someone else but um there I I I was shocked.

1:32:53

I wanted to do a I won't leak it just yet, but I wanted to make a big like we do those market maps.

1:32:58

I wanted to make a big a big tapestry with a lot of detail that I could zoom in and zoom out on.

1:33:05

And I wanted to be able to to >> iteratively put together the collage with generative AI.

1:33:10

I didn't want to just try and oneshot the entire thing.

1:33:12

I wanted to zoom in and say in this corner I want a house and so generate a house and then I'll zoom out and then over here I want a person and over there I want a forest or whatever.

1:33:22

And I wanted to use something that was like the uh like the Nvidia canvas UI or something and and I just I haven't found a tool and I was wondering I I need to go back through all of the different like effectively like drawing tools there.

1:33:40

There's been a few that have really taken off on the iPad uh that allow you different brushes.

1:33:46

So, you can say, I want to make my brush a rubber stamp of a tree and then you can just kind of scrub in some forest and it will just stamp the tree again and again.

1:33:55

And that's not generative AI, but it certainly helps you speed up drawing a forest, for example.

1:34:01

Um, and and I was wondering like h how far caught up are those companies on implementing things like nano banana or GPT, you know, images in chat GP because those models are great, >> but I am kind of sick of just the command line because I try and oneshot it and then I'm like, oh, that's not good.

1:34:21

I try again and then it's back and forth as opposed to like actually building it up like clay where you're molding it.

1:34:26

That's way more satisfying in my opinion. >> Yeah.

1:34:29

The thing the question for Adobe that I I don't necessarily have an answer >> around yet or or even a strong take is >> if Genai makes it a lot easier for people to be creative like combine these two ideas and make an image of it.

1:34:43

>> Does that create more people going down the pipeline to becoming power users that ultimately subscribe to various Adobe products? Right.

1:34:52

>> Um because historically like the learning curve the learning curve on a lot of those tools is very steep. >> Yeah.

1:34:58

learning curve on just generating an image is much lower. So, I don't know.

1:35:03

I think I think that bearishness was uh on on Adobe specifically was was always uh always overblown.

1:35:10

But, uh Photoshop, I'm I'm going to get to the bottom of this because I I if I am somewhat comfortable in Photoshop mapping up, cutting and lassoing and stuff.

1:35:23

Um, I know they have Firefly.

1:35:29

If they if they had if they had Okay, so they have choose a model and then they have one of the non-flyerfly models.

1:35:39

What model could you use?

1:35:39

I'm going to dig into this and understand this because um potentially there there's some cool stuff you could do because I really I really want to make this like collage and uh I need to figure out the correct tools or I need to delegate to someone.

1:35:53

the chat uh has some ideas for you.

1:35:56

There was Bitcoin Gold >> which was a thing. There was also Litecoin.

1:36:01

Litecoin I was thinking of Gustav called it. >> Thank you Gustav.

1:36:04

>> It was silver to Bitcoin's gold.

1:36:06

>> Yeah, it was silver to Bitcoin's gold.

1:36:07

And I don't know where the market caps are now, but just in terms of like my my, you know, mental awareness, the light litecoin has truly fallen by the wayside, whereas it was it was something that I was aware of during the Bitcoin rise.

1:36:23

You >> probably invested in at one point. >> I don't think I did.

1:36:26

>> Yeah, Litecoin is down at a $6.

1:36:26

8 billion valuation >> and and Bitcoin's at two trillion, right?

1:36:33

I think Bitcoin two 2T >> that is >> yeah two two trillion on the dot it's at 100,000 today uh Bitcoin is off its high and the markets in general are very red the NASDAQ is down 1. 88 88 Dow Jones down 64. >> Meta down 16. >> Everything is red.

1:36:52

Everything is red today except for Apple >> which is up. And guess what?

1:36:56

My take today was a bull case for Apple. You're welcome Apple.

1:37:01

I will take full I will take full responsibility.

1:37:04

Maybe we close out with my take.

1:37:06

Uh I would love to get your uh feedback on what I >> talent is now almost >> getting it may may get to uh down being almost down 10% today 9.

1:37:17

3% >> blood bath well not for Apple and it feels like Apple's getting the good ending.

1:37:24

ending. Uh it's not that like it's over that it's not like the conclusion of the AI play like like you know Game of Thrones has played out but uh it feels like we just watched the total vibe reversal on Google and I feel like there might be one coming for Apple and the reason is that there's this popular

1:37:41

narrative that they missed AI right like Apple missed AI it's so egregious >> and German G German didn't really mince words he was he he said it was wildly embarrassing for them >> and he said even internally they feel that And so it's weird playing like the bull from the outside. >> Still getting the the do nothing win

1:37:58

>> Still getting the the do nothing win dynamic.

1:38:00

>> The do nothing win dynamic.

1:38:00

I should have put that in here.

1:38:01

Uh because that was the correct phrase that we should have used.

1:38:05

But um but and and and to be clear like I do think that they missed AI.

1:38:09

Like I'm frustrated with Apple intelligence. I never use Siri.

1:38:11

I can't even use the native dictation and speech to text reliably.

1:38:15

Like if I need to read a a story out loud, I'll still like dump it in Gemini or Chad GBT and like if I want to dictate something, I'll use a different app for that.

1:38:26

I don't just >> trying to get your phone to dictate an article challenge >> and it's like that is not super intelligence.

1:38:33

Like that's a very basic model that's been out for two years.

1:38:35

So I so I do think they missed it and for you know this phone costs almost two grand.

1:38:40

Like it should be able to do that.

1:38:41

Like that's the expectation.

1:38:41

But uh there might be worse fates than missing AI.

1:38:46

Like there is a worse scenario which is imagine if they if they were like oh we we're missing AI and instead of just being like oh let's do some software and do some ondevice inference and do some cute little gen emojis.

1:39:00

It's like we need to spend $200 billion of capex right now to build a massive thing.

1:39:04

We got to build the Colossus data center.

1:39:06

We got to build all this crazy crazy frontier model.

1:39:07

And then they burn all that and then they get a model that's not even as good as Chetuk.

1:39:12

They can't really integrate it.

1:39:14

And then they run into imagine, you know, uh Google like dealt with the whole like uh the generative image thing where the the the German soldiers were depicted with the wrong races.

1:39:22

You remember this black Nazi fiasco?

1:39:24

Like Google doesn't love that type of PR fiasco. They got through it.

1:39:29

Apple is like 10 times more riskaverse than Google in my opinion.

1:39:35

And so Google is not like a move fast, break things company.

1:39:39

They but they were able to move fast enough to get through that and now they have V3 which like has been amazing and Nano which has also been amazing.

1:39:45

Um but Apple really would not want that if Genmoji was doing crazy Black Nazi stuff like that would not be good.

1:39:53

And so they they they you know Apple we we heard this yesterday.

1:39:58

They kicked they kicked the tires on some multi-billion dollar AI acquisitions but they never really got anything over the line. Now they're partnering.

1:40:04

The news yesterday was they're partnering with Google to essentially white label Gemini into Siri. I think this is awesome.

1:40:09

I think consumers will love this. I want exactly this.

1:40:13

Uh right now Apple's paying Google for the API calls.

1:40:16

But I still have this question about the pay.

1:40:20

is is an underrated threat to chatbt >> because what German said that was most notable to me is that Apple will try to pursue the agent commerce opportunity which >> I didn't understand that at all because I don't know how they would set that up.

1:40:37

I think that I think that it's going to offload to Gemini entirely.

1:40:38

offload to Gemini entirely. And so my question and my my take is that in the long term what so so first off yes I do think I do think chatbt usage could fall if Siri plus Gemini gets good enough that when you want to fire off a a you

1:40:54

know a a GPT5 pro query some of the time you're just like let me just ask Siri because I know Siri's going to Gemini it's good enough right um there's there's that possibility the the flip side is is if if the If the end state if

1:41:11

like next year all of the models when you ask buy me a pair of shoes they just go do it because that's just a functionality in the API >> well then Gemini is going to start making a ton of money like the API is going to make money because

1:41:24

>> like a certain percentage of the requests sometimes it's going to be like tell me the history of the Roman Empire and sometimes it's going to be like buy me a case of Diet Coke and when it's buy a case of Diet Coke they're going to make money. Apple is not Apple. Apple Apple is not Apple.

1:41:34

Apple Apple at the product layer if they're using Gemini at the intelligence layer does not mean they're doing revenue shares at the at the model layer at all. >> What do you mean?

1:41:47

>> Like if Apple has has like their LLM experience, which is like Apple intelligence.

1:41:53

>> No, that will be Gemini.

1:41:53

That's what they >> No, but that's not how I read that's not how I read Mark's thing.

1:41:57

He said that Gemini will be below the surface powering the product experience >> because there's a world like you can imagine chat GBT could use nonopen AI models under the hood and still own the customer experience and own the customer relationship and monetize the queries. >> Sure. Yeah. Yeah. Okay. Okay. Okay. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. No, no, no. I I think you're right.

1:42:19

So, basically, this is the thing that I want to do.

1:42:21

thing that I want to do. Apple sees what they have going with the app store >> and Apple historically has not they historically haven't been able to monetize commerce well like all think about all the economic activity that's being >> uh driven by Apple products right how many >> yeah unless it's digital

1:42:41

>> you probably spend you probably spend >> like the average Apple user is like driving so much purchase volume off of their phone whether it's buying clothes buying groceries just on Amazon on your iPhone like the iOS sales on Amazon of >> and that was always off limits that was off limits for app store

1:42:59

>> you know revenue share because it was real world products being sold and traded >> and so I think they look at this and they're like hey this this could be a >> you know trillion dollar opportunity for >> it's going to be >> for Apple and it's going to be super super competitive they're going to be competing with Google open AAI uh you

1:43:17

know bunch of other companies but uh uh I just felt this is this uh >> I don't know I I think if it happens in the LLM like in the in the LLM like for loop basically like if I go to Siri and I say order me a case of Diet Coke and it goes to Gemini and says the prompt is order John a case of Diet Coke. It's

1:43:40

It's pretty hard for Apple to say like and we want the revenue.

1:43:46

Like it's like Google did the work so they are going to get the commission.

1:43:52

It's the same thing as like wouldn't it be nice if if Apple was like oh yeah like you know you can use Google on your on your phone but like if you click an ad like we're going to take the cut like no that's not how it works.

1:44:04

>> Yeah but if they surf if they're surfacing the ad >> yes >> at the app layer for Apple. >> Yes.

1:44:12

>> Then Apple can decide what ad network do we use?

1:44:15

Do we use a native ad network that we're building similar to the app store? Do we partner? >> I don't. No, no, no.

1:44:19

So, so, so what I what I'm proposing is I mean, yes, you could build it either way.

1:44:23

And this is obviously going to be a point of debate and a point of negotiation, but there is a world where where you go to Siri, you say, I order me a case of Diet Coke.

1:44:31

It goes to Gemini for with that prompt and Google says, "We're using Google Checkout, and we'll have it delivered to your thing, and we'll book your and we'll book your credit card that's on file."

1:44:43

Does that sound like Apple?

1:44:45

>> Apple would definitely fight that off because >> and they and they're doing they they ran a bake off with a bunch of different intelligence providers. >> Yep.

1:44:52

I'm just saying >> I think that that was something that would be top of the list in terms of hey, we want to use you for search >> and >> knowledge retrieval for sure.

1:45:01

>> Knowledge retrieval and that's why Apple's paying Google.

1:45:02

But but if if if like play this out in a year, >> but it would be flipped.

1:45:08

If if if if >> what if Google is like we can order you a case.

1:45:14

>> If Google knew they would moneti they could monetize this. >> Yes.

1:45:17

>> They would be like you can have it for free. >> Totally.

1:45:19

And I think it flips at some point.

1:45:21

>> I think well well okay.

1:45:21

So you think it flips at some point?

1:45:23

I think it flips at some point within the grounds of the current agreement.

1:45:25

I believe that Apple will want to >> own any sort of like payments own capture at least.

1:45:34

>> That's certainly their leverage, but there is totally a world where where Gemini learns my home address through Siri, learns my credit card number through Siri.

1:45:44

>> Yeah, but I mean literally the final boss of of like disintermediating all business.

1:45:49

I'm not I I'm I'm not saying that they won't have leverage in the negotiation, but I but I am saying that like like Google is more set up to actually build the product that delivers diet. >> I totally agree.

1:46:02

And so I think they're going to be in the same >> the middle ground the middle ground to me would more likely be like a revshare. >> That's Yeah.

1:46:08

No, that's exactly what I'm saying.

1:46:10

>> And that's what's happening with Google search.

1:46:11

>> But I'm saying yeah, exactly. Exactly.

1:46:14

>> Apple has built >> a taxation engine with the app store.

1:46:18

They've already built an ad network.

1:46:18

And so I think internally they would probably like all the margin.

1:46:24

>> But I mean you could use the exact same logic to like they should build a search engine then and then take all that margin. >> Yeah.

1:46:29

But it was also >> it was much harder to build like a search experience until >> I don't I don't think they're going to I don't think they're going to do it.

1:46:35

I think they're going to I think that they're going to say, "Hey, look right now right now LLM search queries cost a dollar every time you fire them off.

1:46:42

So we're gonna pay you a billion dollars for like a million of them or whatever.

1:46:47

you know, it's not a dollar each, but like, you know, a million a million prompts is a couple bucks or whatever, whatever the whatever the math is.

1:46:53

Uh, over time, it's going to be like, no, every prompt generates money.

1:46:58

So, you want people prompting your system because you make money every time people prompt it. Yeah.

1:47:05

>> And and and and you monetize through advertising.

1:47:08

And so, at that point, there's going to be another bake off, but the bakeoff is going to be who's going to pay Apple the most money. >> Yeah.

1:47:15

Anyway, uh that was that was a big part of the debate.

1:47:18

Uh the the last question I had was like who how do you feel if you're Tim Cook right now?

1:47:21

You have to be pretty happy was my take.

1:47:23

Uh you don't get you didn't get over your skis chasing the AI boom.

1:47:26

You didn't invest in a bunch of infrastructure.

1:47:28

You didn't acquire a company for 20 billion that you didn't need to.

1:47:31

Uh even though AI features are super nifty, lacking them clearly doesn't cause people to switch phones.

1:47:37

iMessage is such an insanely locked in network effect.

1:47:42

Everyone still went out and bought the 17 Pro.

1:47:43

Uh, more importantly, Apple got through a massive existential crisis during Liberation Day and the ensuing trade war with China.

1:47:50

Playing the political Game of Thrones while being a supply chain mastermind is more than enough to propel Apple to a $4 trillion valuation and earn Tim Cook a major pat on the back.

1:48:02

And so I think I think his comp to 100 at least >> at least at least at least let's get him in the nine figure club.

1:48:10

It's uh it's really really depressing that he hasn't been there.

1:48:14

But >> let's get to this post by Jason Schuman.

1:48:18

He was highlighting uh service titan at $9 billion market cap on $866 million of revenue.

1:48:25

Comparing that to uh Harvey, which is $8 billion valuation on somewhere around 100 million of AR.

1:48:31

I think they're I think they're quite a bit beyond that at this point.

1:48:35

But Jason says, "At this point, you have to believe that we're moving from a world of niche vertical SAS to the next industrial revolution."

1:48:41

I [clears throat] think that's exactly what the VCs that are backing Harvey at 8 billion believe, right?

1:48:48

They believe they're eating this is a uh labor displacement, labor replacement opportunity.

1:48:56

And so they're they're underwriting underwriting Harvey against the overall revenue of of law firms globally and and can they capture a percentage of that?

1:49:08

>> You would not be able to underwrite Harvey like this against like the existing legal AI market.

1:49:12

And so yeah, this is a bet that uh this is this is a bet on uh labor labor displacement. >> Yeah, I I don't know.

1:49:24

Oh, I mean it is just like it is just a new market like in some ways like Service Titan is a is a I mean not to boil it down too much but it's like customer relationship management software for trades people with applications focused on sales, customer service, marketing, automation.

1:49:42

So it is in like a niche of a niche that's big and they make a ton of money.

1:49:47

Um but it's it's somewhat niched down which is the the point about the niche vertical SAS.

1:49:53

Uh Harvey, at least right now, it feels like is in a fairly new and broader niche.

1:50:01

Like it's not it's not uh it's like the legal market.

1:50:04

It's had it's had niche vertical SAS, but um something that's like pretty dramatically accelerated.

1:50:14

Like it's it feels like it feels like the returns to the AIification of your vertical SAS product are just higher in legal than in >> in CRM for trades people.

1:50:29

>> Yeah, >> I would think.

1:50:29

So >> yeah, apparently the 200 largest law firms in the world annually provide 130 billion of legal services. So that's the top 200.

1:50:38

Uh so Harvey's already sitting at you know basically their market cap at like 6% of the of the uh global annual spend.

1:50:50

>> Also just the top the I mean the growth rates are like wildly different.

1:50:52

So price to earnings growth if you do if you just do PEG like you're going to get to a wildly different number.

1:50:57

Um but uh I don't know uh we've seen a bunch of examples of like you know the the the lawyers genuinely like expressing that they are ready to pay for AI in a serious way. Yeah.

1:51:15

>> Um >> well I have the right post to end it on >> a rare Pagani Zonda R.

1:51:20

One of only 15 ever built has found a new life not on the racetrack but as a centerpiece inside a luxury oceanfront condo. Valued at over 1. 5 million.

1:51:29

This Italian hypercar has been suspended on custom engineered steel beams serving as a breathtaking room divider between the master suite and living area.

1:51:38

The designs transforms what was once a track exclusive masterpiece into a sculptural focal point.

1:51:45

Celebration of speed art and architecture.

1:51:51

uh very chat GPT uh coded unfortunately [laughter] writing but uh yeah this is absolutely insane.

1:51:57

I had seen some of the pictures of it um uh I'd seen some of the pictures of it being like lifted up into the room.

1:52:05

>> Uh it's kind of cool to to be able to like walk around the car and see see the bottom of it.

1:52:09

Although we can't see the pictures of it here on the track, keep it out of there.

1:52:13

I I This is disrespectful to my culture as a track guy.

1:52:16

As someone whose entire personality is about tracking cars now that I went once, uh this is uh this is extremely disrespectful.

1:52:24

Take it out of >> Yeah, it really is. >> Give it to a track.

1:52:27

Could you not Could you not give it to a track junkie and give it to a track junk?

1:52:32

>> Could you not have created gone to Hollywood and say, >> "For $100,000, I want you to make a model of my car.

1:52:37

I'm gonna keep my car at the track, but I want to have it in my living room. >> Yeah.

1:52:42

>> Uh so yeah, I'm a little >> also like what is going on?

1:52:43

Like why is this in a condo?

1:52:47

Like like if you have $1.

1:52:49

5 million to spend on like a centerpiece like get a house?

1:52:54

>> Ever heard of a penthouse?

1:52:54

Ron [laughter] >> Ever heard of a Miami penthouse? >> Condo. Doesn't say penthouse. >> Yeah.

1:53:01

>> It doesn't say Oh, they own the whole building.

1:53:04

>> A condo says they got a condo.

1:53:04

They got they got a little studio and they put a 1. 5.

1:53:08

I mean, honestly, respect for going crazy with the prioritization.

1:53:11

You're just like, "Yeah, my my rent's 4K a month and I decided to put a $ 1.

1:53:15

5 million car in my in my 4K a month uh studio." >> Do what? >> Uh yeah.

1:53:22

[laughter] Uh tenant upgrades. I don't know.

1:53:26

Uh, let us know in the comments how what you would do with if a if you had a Pagani Zonda R, one of 15 ever built.

1:53:35

I say keep it on the track.

1:53:36

>> Yeah, personally, I would have at least kept it flat so you could use it as a as a call booth. >> Phone booth for sure.

1:53:42

>> If you need to jump on a Zoom and kind of loud, >> you just jump in there.

1:53:45

So, >> anyway, thank you for watching the show. Thank you for listening.

1:53:49

Leave us five stars on Apple Podcasts and Spotify and we will see you tomorrow back in the Ultra in Los Angeles. We'll see you then. Goodbye. >> Thank you to Ben.