Technology Brothers Live | Tuesday February 11th 2025

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not say anything because we're going live welcome to technology Brothers the number one live show in Tech we are live from the Temple of Technology The Fortress of Finance that's right the capital of capital it is Tuesday what day is it it's February 11th three days

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from Valentine's Day so get ready for that this show starts now we have a fantastic show for you we're going through open AI uh crazy uh fight with Elon and launched VR headset they're working on the new ivas system with the military uh boom supersonic they don't have a boom anymore they're going

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boomless we'll break it down a16z launched a new market map we're going through an alien technology ETF you're going to be able to bet on alen technology in the public markets uh we're breaking down the GPU Whisperer a good buddy of mine who uh helps build out GPU clusters uh we're going through

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a defense Tech OP ED pouring some cold water on all the def F Tech hot companies right now in the Wall Street Journal and we're breaking down the hyms Super Bowl ad and then of course we have a fantastic timeline looking through a bunch of posts on X for you Jordy how is

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your day how have you been what's new with you four espressos so far about to crack a Red Bull firing on all cylinders let's go I got to uh got to hang out with Patrick oesi this morning which was fun um and uh yeah just get got me really fired up on uh content I love making it I love

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listening to it and I'm very excited about what Colossus has coming up they got some big stuff in the works but um yeah a lot of lot of news to cover this uh the Tim the timeline has been consistently in turmoil and it's a blessing for uh episode 50 Jordy can you

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believe episode 50 episode 50 baby ah can you I can't honestly genuinely can't wait for episode 5,000 that's really the one that's the one takes most podcasters a year we've been doing it a couple months we caught up we caught up we caught up I love it bad day to be a

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weekly podcast it's very weak it's R the name anyway let's move on to yeah let's move on to the open AI news we got a clip from Sam Alman he is in France uh at an AI Summit JD Vance is there Emanuel mccrone is there lots of Heavy Hitters lots of Lords uh but of course they asked Sam about the craziness from

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yesterday Elon submitted a bid to buy the open AI nonprofit for something like 97.1 billion or 97.4 billion uh obviously that complicates the uh the not the for-profit spin out and conversion process that's obviously kind of unprecedented at this scale and so let's go to Sam let's hear what he had

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to say in France about this offer opening eye is not for sale the open ey mission is not for sale Elon tries all sorts of things for a long time um this is the late you know this week's episode you take it seriously at all what do you think he's trying to drive out with this

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I think he's probably just trying to slow us down um he obviously is a competitor uh it's you know he's working hard and he raised a lot of money for xai and they're trying to uh compete with us from a technological perspective from you know getting the product into

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the market and uh I wish he would just compete by building a better product but I think there's been a lot of tactics you know many many lawsuits all sorts of other crazy stuff now this um and we'll try to just put our head down and keep working do you think musk's approach

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then is from a position of insecurity about xai probably his whole life is from a position of insecurity I feel for the guy you feel for him I do actually I don't think he's like a happy person I do feel for him okay do you worry that he has this proximity to to to the

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president and he can influence the decision making of of the US Presidency and and policies around this this agenda on AI not particular maybe I should but not particularly I mean I I try to just wake up and think about like how we're going to make our technology better what you think

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Jordy narrator he wasn't just thinking about how to make the technology better like you know Elon like here's the whole situation Elon feels that Sam has played extremely dirty you know doing the whole uh just doing this uh because I love it bit you know Senate you know testifying

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in front of the Senate to then converting into a for-profit uh Elon is frustrated because he was very early to this trend now he's like playing katchup with xai both of them in their own ways have been playing dirty right elon's choosing to do that through law fair and

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um it's in you know it's in many ways like exactly what Elon should be doing right he feels like he was feels like he was slighted uh feels like he deserves some aspect of you know some position in the company and then simultaneously Sam is doing exactly what he should be doing

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which is fighting the lawsuits trying to keep the team focused on the mission and the product and winning um and when I look at every founding journey is like a roller coaster ride anybody that's built a company will tell you it's like a roller coaster ride one day you're like

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super stoked the next day you're you know questioning like is this going to work and if you think about Sam's like last two weeks it's like okay deep seek launches and like so that's like a low moment and then they launch like deep research and then you know he's getting

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and then it's like a Super Bowl ad and then like new law like new lawsuit new offer to buy the company so it's like it's it's you know the the waves that he's going through um you know I I I don't think uh regardless of your position on Sam or open AI or Elon uh as a you know former uh CEO of a much much

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much much you know a company that that is like tiny tiny tiny tiny fraction of the size um I feel for Sam in terms of like the roller coaster that he's going through and how difficult the job is where you know I just posted about this five minutes ago Sam is actively

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competing with four of his former co-founders in open AI that have all raised more than you know that have all raised billions of dollarss so not only is he fighting like the world's richest man he's like in lawsuits he's getting attacked by Deep seek he's fighting four you know three

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other of his former partners and so the pressure it can't be overstated how much pressure he's under and so I think that he I I read this as like good talking points he's nailing it you know he it's a good response but you can tell it's wearing on him like getting to the point

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where he's saying I wish that they would just focus on the product or the technology so it's clearly wearing on him and and I don't know there's not many people on Earth that would be able to deal with this much pressure for this long while being this much in the spotlight while trying

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to you know innovate in in a very meaningful way while trying to stay ahead of all these other labs while trying to stay ahead of China um while facing you know I didn't even bring up like meta and Facebook and llama right like that's been a whole other aspect

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and so you know Sam made a choice to play the biggest game in the most competitive space and now he's dealing with the repercussions on that but there's not a CEO on the planet that's under more pressure than Sam Alman yeah and it's certainly does it pales in comparison to like Steve Jobs was not

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under the same level of pressure when he was launching the iPhone uh even Zuck I mean they were making movies about him as a kid basically uh basically hitpiece movies about everything he did it was rough he did not have uh the world's richest man going after him at that time

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in fact he was partnering with Microsoft and Bill Gates and it was somewhat of a friendly relationship it wasn't that much of like Google wants to kill you yeah Google launched uh Google Circles or whatever that was uh I I I can't even remember the name but it was like kind

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of a shot across the B it was nowhere near as serious as what's going on right now um yeah and so what's interesting is that Sam actually has to kind of restate the fact that hey this uh the nonprofit is still going to exist like he people don't even understand what's going on

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there it's not that the nonprofit is converting it's that almost like you're running a nonprofit you discover some you know gold in those Hills that you happen to own or like you invent something brilliant and then you're spinning it out as a company you're effectively selling that asset off the

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balance sheet of the of the nonprofit and it's very it's very confusing because the nonprofit does want to continue going on and it's not really a full conversion there's actually two organizations that are going to split out but it's all been so complicated from day one that it's been just there's

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been so many vectors to attack it and it's not just Elon Zuck has also put pressure on them in California for trying to do this and what's interesting is that I think about the dawn of open AI like what the initial uh pitch was and what the initial strategy was and

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it's very clear to me that no one actually predicted scaling laws would be as capital intensive as they wound up being the thought was let's get the smartest people in the world the smartest computer scientists Greg Brockman he already he was the CTO of stripe he's already really really rich

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probably a billionaire he he's going to work for a nonprofit for whatever you know healthare it doesn't matter and a lot of people are going to say hey yeah I could make two million a year Google do an app but you know this nonprofit still going to pay for my health

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insurance pay for my kids it's going to be a fine life and I get to work on the most important problem in human history if it was just a human capital problem of just let's design the perfect algorithm for AI game over you don't need the capital it works as a nonprofit

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the original strategy works but then they run into the scaling law and all of a sudden it's very funny to me it feels like the machine God of AGI is like okay Humanity if you want to summon me fully you have to be all in on Capital none of this nonprofit this nonprofit stuff does not work you have to be a

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highly tuned Capital formation machine in order to make this happen because I demand gpus I demand sacrifice of gpus to the Sho and so it's very interesting how it how it's played out uh but but what else have you taken away and then maybe let's move into some uh some post

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and some reactions to this yeah it's just it's an interesting scenario to think about would open AI be the company it is today if it didn't have this massive group of Founders that now is is its biggest detractor right the fact that you have Meera going and raising billions for a company to directly

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compete with the original company you have Ilia doing the same thing right you have John going to anthropic helping them out now going to joining mea right y so in many ways it's like the company probably wouldn't exist in its current form if it didn't have like all these

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Brilliant Minds working on it but it also set it up because of how you know brilliant and independently gifted all those you know Founders were it also caused all of them to basically think I can do this better myself right yeah and I'm going to do this better myself and I

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can attract the capital and you know if um who knows right and they're all sort of drafting off of Open AI in terms of like the billions of dollars that were spent on you know research internally and the learnings from that and and just like genuinely you know generally being

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able to uh go faster with their new Ventures but uh it's certainly um completely unprecedented and I can't wait to watch the the probably Ash read the Ashley Vance book or documentary uh because it's going to be it's going to be absolutely wild for sure let's move

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on to some posts Kevin qua says elon's open AI bid of course is to move FMV fair market value for nonprofit conversion interestingly this has been gray area in Tech startups because technically anyone can screw up a company's 409a option pool Planning by sending unsolicited term sheet which is

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very interesting I didn't know that you could actually do this hasn't been a major issue because it would be a very aggressive move and burn Bridges plus mostly companies are fuzzier on all this stuff with IRS than they should be uh but this has been a known attack area

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for a while Kevin follows up and says I really do want to spend one day uh I I really want to one day spend a weekend talking with both open Ai and elon's legal tax people not about this thing just in general they have such amazing structures they've navigated sigh and I

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love that he's just like I want to nerd out with these folks because they've done such crazy stuff and it really is crazy I know multiple uh people that got Early Access to open AI in their first for-profit like fundraising and they just passed even though it's like how

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could you pass on that team like the initial team was like Greg Brockman Sam Alman like it's just the most insane founding team and it's like they're going to make money like you shouldn't it it's all green flags and then you just see the biggest red flag ever which is like you're not getting stock you're

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getting units and and of course like it seems like it's G to work out and it could but it's obviously such fight yeah I mean there are so many reasons that you could have written a memo and said I love the team and the opportunity but it's not the right fit for our firm on

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his note about you know term sheets potentially screwing up foreigna and option pools every every startup founder eventually goes to a position where they're expecting a term sheet and then they're trying to process a bunch of like you know employee onboarding type stuff to make sure that it hits before

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getting that term sheet and I've been in positions before where I've told the investor wait until end of day Monday to send this because like I need to get a few things in order to make sure that my you know people that are about to join the team are getting refresher grants

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are going to get them at the at the you know previous valuation effectively um and so SB attorney says what Elon Musk just did in his 97 billion bid for open AI is genius the previous go private price was 40 billion he's playing chess here's why Delaware courts apply

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something called the Revlon rule to m&a bidding situations when a board decides to sell a company their legal fiduciary duty shifts to getting the highest price for shareholders but open aai isn't a normal company it started as nonprofit then created a for-profit arm open a LP

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to raise investment uh that structure creates a legal gray area musk's bid isn't about just buying open AI it's about forcing a decision if open ai's board considers even considers transitioning fully into a for-profit company musk's bid puts them in a position where they might have to apply

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Revlon rules maximizing value just like any other corporate sale it's a strategic move that could expose whether open AI is still Mission driven or if it's just another big tech company playing Wall Street rules and that's the real play musk is challenging open AI

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relationship open AI leadership on both legal and ethical level testing whether their decisions align with their original Vision or the financial incentives of investors like Microsoft Sam Alman and open ai's board rejected musk's offer outright but that response

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raises more questions than it answers you see they probably have a duty to create a special committee consider all offers and and entertain an auction if open AI isn't a company that can be bought why do they take billions in investment if they are a company that can be bought why turn down 97 billion

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either way musk has put them in a position where they have to justify their existence not just to him but to the Delaware chancell Court it all comes back to Delaware baby it's crazy because Delaware I mean screwed over M certainly Elon has had his issues with Delaware

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but the Delaware courts have proven to be unpredictable right everybody would have said like there's no way that they're going to to entertain this ridiculous lawsuit from a shareholder that has like seven shares that that clearly is just basically working on behalf of lawyers that are going to make

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hundreds of millions of this decision goes and just with that you know some people were predicting we covered this last week that the decision to end elon's pay package could literally cost Delaware billions of dollars in Lost tax revenue as companies say hey you know

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what I'm going to go to Nevada I'm gonna go to Texas so I feel like Delaware is unpredictable right now they we've seen their judges be um you know make make sort of more political decisions but this is such an unprecedented situation so much gray area so many conflicts it's

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such a uh I don't know that there's great precedent in Delaware for nonprofit to for-profit conversions that have already raised tens of billions of dollars like it's just nobody really knows and I think um yeah we we covered we were able to live react to this on

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the show yesterday it was very obvious that he was throwing like this a hundred billion dollar wrench or a hundred billion dollar grenade into the into the for-profit conversion and it's great to see uh S&B attorney kind of breaking down like hey what's actually going on behind the scenes here

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and it really comes down to like it's an Ethics thing there's a legal question um you know it seems like if open AI board just immediately rejected it then to me like at least the board is kind of aligned on the deal that they want to do yeah but then again if you if you get

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the courts involved you know maybe maybe like they they start poking holes in that decision yeah well hopefully there leads to some legal precedent that allows more nonprofits to convert to forit profits we've been advocating for the Red Cross and Peta to go for-profit

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and we'd love to see uh more nonprofits uh move over to the Venture Capital world or maybe do private equ I want to see I want to see Peta transition to a private military contractor and actually put it on the line and defend the animals you know exact Commando style

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you know if if you could yeah basically black water for poaching Black Water For Pets yeah yeah blackw for poaching oh you think you're taking down an elephant well there's a Apache helicopter coming through paid for by Peter yeah yeah Reaper drones gonna be circling every hippo in the

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savannah uh anyway let's close with uh some uh great analysis as always from Ben Thompson over estery an absolute dog he says uh the open AI nonprofit is controlled by its board which does not have a fiduciary duty to maximize open ai's value value again because it's a

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nonprofit that means it can say no at the same time the structure that lets open AI board say no is exactly what Altman is trying to get rid of in favor of a for-profit structure that will unlock new investment um and so he says I think that's as far as The Story Goes while musk needed to round up a viable

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Investment Group to make this offer legitimate and would gladly take over open aai if his offer were accepted the primary motivation and the primary outcome is very likely to be to make to be to make an already complicated and pricey transaction even more so so I think we'll close there we'll see where

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it goes maybe there's more wrinkles in this story I'm sure there'll be more drama uh the boys are fighting it feels like that scene in The Matrix when uh Neo and Morpheus are fighting and all the crew Neo and Morpheus are fighting and they got to go in and watch because

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it's a it's a knockout drag out fight two of the greatest uh Tech entrepreneurs in in in the modern era uh Waring and uh we'll be here reporting on it folks so stay tuned uh let's move on to some to some other fantastic news Palmer lucky uh announced on X this

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morning that anderol is taking over ivas and we don't have time for business as usual whatever you are imagining however crazy you imagine I am multiply it by 10 and then do it again I am back and I am only getting started and so for those who don't know andal is taking over the

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US Army's integrated vision ual augmentation system the ivas program that's an augmented reality headset for the Modern War fighter uh and it's pending the department of defenses approval we are now fully responsible for production Hardware software and

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integrating lattice to greatly expand Warf fighter capabilities this is incredible news and uh Palmer posted a whole blog breaking it down let's read through it now um as of today andal Industries is taking the Reigns of the largest project in of its kind in history the United States Army

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integrated visual augmentation System Program for me this announcement is deeply personal since my pre ulous days as a teenager Who had who had the opportunity to do a tiny bit of work on the Army's Brave mine project I've believed there would be a headset on every Soldier long before there is a

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headset on every civilian because you can kind of mandate it and it can be designed exactly for what the war fighter needs it's a very specialized use case um given that America loses more troops in training than combat the squad immersive virtual trainer side of

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ivas alone has the potential to save more lives than practically anything else we can imagine building tactical heads up displays that turn Warf Fighters into technomancers and pair us with weaponized robotics where one of the products in the original anderol

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pitch deck for a reason the past eight years we have spent building lattice have put anderol in a position to make this type of thing actually useful in the way military strategists and technologists have long dreamed of ever since Robert Hein Lin's 1959 novel Starship Troopers fantastic book great

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movie too not just day and night and thermal and UltraViolet but peering into an idealized interactive real-time composite of the past present and future that will quickly surpass traditional senses like vision and touch put in another way Superman doesn't use menus

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he just sees and does I love it uh if anderol had been more than a dozen people when IAS was first getting spun up all those years ago at least the tragic Heap guys didn't win our country really dodged a bullet there I do believe our crazy pitch would have won this from the start as things stands

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though there is no time like the present the ivas program one of the most important programs to the Army represents just the beginnings of A New Path in human augmentation one that will allow America's War fighters to surpass the limitations of human form and

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cognition seamlessly teaming enhanced humans with large packs of robotic and biological teammates uh I can go on and read more but Jordy you got anything for me in the interim oh I mean it's just crazy because every time andal does anything like you know uh around the world multiple teams just

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cry out in in anguish because the andal just ends up doing the thing that that's that that was the only thing in somebody's pitch deck right and this was just one of the things in ander's Pitch deck eight years ago and they're getting around to these things slowly as they

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build out this incredible distribution Channel and relationship with with the do uh so anyways I think uh obviously makes a ton of sense uh it's just wild how anderol continues to basically own the product areas that were in every sci-fi novel that basically anyone has ever read and

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they're just getting to these things first and just capturing you know not only contracts but but mind share and um you know as as always um you know seems to be a a huge win for andal but also you know I love to see the the kind of even the language that they're choosing

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technomancers is some great uh great great choices of uh of words so very cool very cool to see and this is the kind of thing you know like the reality is that average Soldier today grew up playing Call of Duty and so they like already had this experience as 12year olds in a Xbox 360 Lobby screaming you

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know and so these are all the things that I think our soldiers have you know expected and just simply haven't really existed right there's been heads up displays and things like that but nothing that was you know truly truly integrated and and something that was on

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par with even an Oculus esque experience so to me this is like basically this is probably a a this is clearly a product that Palmer and the rest of the team have wanted to build forever and they're just now getting to the point where um they can actually really deliver these

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ideas that that seem like they're out of a Sci-Fi novel from the 9s uh but are you know very becoming very real real so yeah yeah technology has advanced so quickly that uh the integration into the military just hasn't happened nearly as fast enough there's funny pictures of uh

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like drone Pilots using literal Xbox 360 controllers because the government doesn't have the resources to build their own so they just patch that in and sometimes that's great uh Google Maps is often used to as a targeting system because they just have the most reliable

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app for understanding where the roads are and great satellite imagery and so you'll literally drop a pin send it to the guy and be like yeah call in the artillery right here it's crazy yeah do you remember um when that submarine uh the Titanic submarine went down and then

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everybody like this video started going viral they were like oh they were using an Xbox controller like can you believe that like of course they went down but it's like no that's literally what our entire military Le like running on like basically like Xbox controllers also sometimes it's like well yeah actually

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the Xbox controller is like one of the most mass-produced products on the planet is probably the most reliable controller than some oneoff that you build like a lot of times it's like why deal with that when you can just get something off the shelf that's been manufactured

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to like complete Six Sigma uh Precision uh anyway uh so a couple years ago I was doing a deep dive on ivas and I asked Palmer hey like like you're like the perfect guy to do this project why is it still sitting with Microsoft and he was kind of kg like oh like maybe we'll do

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it one day and now we know it just was in the pipeline clearly um so I I wanted to give the the the listeners a little bit of background on the ivas program it's a really interesting story of how Microsoft won that contract what was going on in the military at the time um

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so let's let's go through some of it because this this idea of like BR AR for soldiers goes back decades so in the early 2010s uh VR and AR is going to be the next thing everyone's calling it Oculus is blowing up and Microsoft wants to get in the game uh they launched the Xbox Connect in 2010 which was uh an

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augmented reality system that would track your motion and then put that in the game and then they launched the first Hollow lens in 2016 that never made it to a consumer device but they did roll it out in some industrial capacities and it was more of like a tech demo um so they

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Microsoft ultimately determined that augmented reality was too cumbersome for everyday consumers and I used the hollow lens and it was rough it was heavy and the field division was very narrow we're still you know a full decade before meta's uh glasses and The Meta the new

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uh I forget what they call it the Icarus or something it has some funny name uh but uh the the the new metag glasses they're not even out yet and so we're still not there even the Apple Vision Pro is still not widely used High churn and so uh Microsoft is just too early

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but nevertheless they decide that uh they're good at selling to large Enterprises plays to their strengths and few Enterprises are larger than the US military so they get a $22 billion contract for a project called ivas and think about it I mean andal is Raising on1 billion doll uh acv1 billion doll

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revenue or something like that a22 billion do contract goes out to Microsoft for this obviously it's over a number of years but still that's massive uh and this is like perfect for andal to do um so the initiative aims to equip over a 100,000 American soldiers with

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augmented reality headsets based on Hollow lens Technologies they're going to mass-produce these this is a lot of a lot of tech going out so ivas was the latest chapter in the military's long running fascination with augmented reality and it starts all the way back

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in the 80s so the Army had recognized that technology was transforming Battlefield intelligence as satellites and drones generated vast amounts of data that traditional communication tools like radio struggle to keep up with so you know you can hear somebody in your in your headphones over a radio

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but it's so much easier if you can just be like let me actually pull up the map and see what you're talking about it's really hard to describe hey over that Hill there's a bad guy and you're like which Hill and you're like the one on your left and it's like I can't hear

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that right yeah I think people don't people like it it truly is going to be so transformative where you know like often times like a a corporate office is chaotic right it's like you don't know where like like oh where's like uh where's your cooworker where's this

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person oh can you try to get this person over there imagine a battlefield where there's hundreds or thousands of vehicles that are all coordinating individuals different platoon teams that are working together and the enemy engaging with you and you know it's just like the most chaotic environment that

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you can possibly imagine I yes my great grandpa fought in World War II and was like shot down like twice and he's like told me a bunch of stories about how like once you're in there it's just like all out chaos and uh and that you know that that like that largely hasn't

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changed like teams have gotten better communication's gotten better but it's still chaotic and so the potential for this technology is like it will become like impossible to actually engage in a productive way on a battlefield if you're not like in this VR experience and having full visibility of the

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battlefield and where your teammates are and stuff like that and it really will transform the effectiveness of uh the reason this technology is important and the reason that the mil the military said we're going to spend 20$ 222 billion to try to get this thing is that

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it's gonna you know the potential is obviously there um but but technically it's an extremely difficult Challenge and so the first thing that the Army does is they start this prototype project called the solders computer and but the results are really underwhelming the heads up display used the same low

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resolution uh red only screen found in the Nintendo's Virtual Boy which was a complete consumer flop I don't know if you remember this thing but you could play like Mario Tennis and it would have like like basically just two planes of 3D and it was really cool I remember

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playing with it as a kid and being like wow for like two seconds and then being like that's miserable I'll just stick with the Game Boy um but uh it but it makes sense so the project was moved to uh the US Army's natic soldier center in Massachusetts the budget increases

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expectations sore and now there's more money at stake and so in 1992 the soldiers computer entered field testing early Impressions were promising uh soldiers praised how thermal imaging extended their sight range and how the system enabled them to fire around corners while staying in cover so they'

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actually have a camera mounted to the gun and then they could see the what the gun saw in their heads up display so they could put the gun around the corner shoot and and basically uh you know stay in cover it's pretty cool um that's so so such a funny product that I imagine

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the soldiers in practice absolutely hated because it's so like it's so it's so so out of a James Bond like villain movie I have put your gun around well there's there's also an old Soviet uh gun that actually has a a curved yeah a curved Barrel so you can aim around corners and

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it completely destroys the ballistics like it's a disaster and I think if you put more than like a a couple hundred rounds through it it just completely melts down and breaks um anyway um so there's there's a ton of drawbacks the head mounted display was bulky data

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transfers La data transfers lagged by up to 75 seconds over a full minute you're waiting for it to refresh the system crashes were frequent a US Army Research Institute report uh featured blunt Soldier feedback they call it junk they say it sucks and they all mention how

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painful it is to wear one particularly damning quote encapsulated the frustration I don't know whoever put it on the solders back in the original configuration and had them walk around with it it appears to me to be designed in a vacuum as in well uh well we need all these things to make the system run

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but we don't really consider the reality of a soldier walking on a street hopping a wall going through a door coming out of a hatch uh the equipment added 40 pounds to a soldier's pack by contrast the meta Oculus Quest 2 weighs just over a pound and so clearly the technology

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has advanced everything's shrunk down like even even like heavy headsets now you know you're talking about one pound two pounds you throw that on a ballistics helmet it's not going to be that big of a deal you throw a couple pounds of battery packs in the backpack

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probably doable at this point um so but despite these shortcomings senior military officials believed in the program and there's just this there's just this chain of like hey we got to keep going this is my job I'm I've been working on this for a decade now this is

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my career and so in 1996 the dod rebranded the effort as Land Warrior and they approved a billion doll budget remember they've spent all this money and this has never made it to the field really like this has never been a successful project um and so the dod appointed a colonel to serve as an

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intermediary between engineers and soldiers however the project faced a fatal flaw lever to leverage cuttingedge technology the military began incorporating consumer Hardware into the systems Design This is a smart move but unfortunately consumer grade equipment

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wasn't built for the battlefield and so it's a perfect example of like why you need Palmer in here because he's the he's the consumer guy he's built the Oculus he's built uh you know the chromatic but then he's also built stuff that needs to sit on the battlefield like you know all of the drones and

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sensor towers that anderol has produced and and so uh the hard fa the hardware failed in Rain couldn't withstand electromagnetic interference and the effort to Rize it caused cost to Skyrocket by 1999 spending had increased 50% a private company burning this much

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cash with little to show for it would likely face investor intense investor scrutiny but too many military leaders had tied their reputations to Land Warrior making failure Unthinkable and so I can go on here one of the Project's biggest Champions was Navy Admiral William Owens who served as Vice

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chairman to the Joint Chiefs of Staff during the Clinton Administration Owens was a staunch advocate for what he called Network Centric Warfare which is actually a really cool idea um in a rare candidate interview from the mid 90s he declared I genuinely believe and this

35:11

sounds like this sounds like it could be said today uh I genuinely believe in the next five years there will be a revolution in the way this nation fights Wars it will PRI it will come primarily from the smart front end of Warf fighting that is the ability to use high

35:25

technology surveillance of a very large Battlefield we have never in the history of warfare seen the battlefield that way and so Owen's Vision aligned with the armies with the Army's post Cold War shift towards a smaller better equipped fighting force and this was the story of

35:40

the uh of the Gulf War uh the Iraq had a huge military but it was really just America had way better technology and so that war was supposed to go on for a long time it ended in just a few days um in in 2005 229 infantry soldiers were equipped with the system nearly 20 years

35:57

after the project had begun soldiers in Iraq used the gear to digitally Mark safe regrouping points but enthusiasm remained lukewarm more refiners necessary it's it's interesting because this type of headset is competing with with literally a radio that just can call out to someone else and be like hey

36:17

here's the rough coordinates let's meet there and then you're using this clunky headset and it's like not working and if it's not working perfectly you're on the battlefield you're in the most intense situ ation your life is at risk your team's life is at risk the the mission

36:31

objective is at risk you're going to if it's not perfect you're just going to pick up the radio and or or call up to you know air support and say hey let me you know can you get a visual on this what do you see cool you know and it just quickly becomes something that so

36:45

it's crazy to think that you know however many 20 plus billion dollars after 20 years Nets out as as a a a mid product for 229 soldiers um the best trade but again there's an argument to say like hey they were they were right they were just basically too early and to me the interesting thing here is like

37:08

I I would love to the long-term I think everybody has a sense that the battlefield long term will be a bunch of autonomous and teleoperated devices right in the same way that the people that fly uh uavs in the mid in the Middle East for the United States like are sitting in Nevada right like

37:28

outside of Las Vegas like you know basically uh remotely flying these um craft and it does seem that you'll eventually have a range of different types of robots similar to that that will be teleoperated and and so I'd be interested to hear how Palmer and Trey

37:45

and the rest of the andal and Matt and the rest of the andal team are thinking about what is how does this new um you know sort of uh augmented reality VR I don't know whatever what what this headset how does that fit into the teleoperated future is that you have one guy on the battlefield that can use the

38:02

headset to basically drop into like some type of drone or you know robot that they can then carry out other activities because ultimately at the end of the day um it doesn't you know it seems like there's there's an obvious trend of just REM removing human life from the

38:19

battlefield entirely because the the actual loaded cost of a human not to mention the the the value that the the family and that person's family and that person themselves puts on their own life but the full cost of a soldier annually is just so every every lost life is a

38:38

tragic because you you know we have an individual who's not going to go home to their family but then there's also the economic burden of every individual Soldier is always going to be worth an order you know orders of magnitude more than a robot that could just blow up and

38:53

maybe it's unrecoverable but it's replaceable right yeah yeah the 22 billion sounds like so much but I remember we were talking about the F-35 and I think I mentioned that it cost a trillion dollars and you were like that's impossible and someone followed

39:06

up with me and were like no it was a trillion dollar project like like Jordan it is an unbelievable amount of money it wasn't over one year it was over decades but still the total cost of that project was in the trillions um but in 2010 they actually did descope it and move kind of

39:21

halfway you know VR headsets the future radio the past under the Obama Administration what over over over 20 over 20 billion in the whole and you're like guys I think it's time to like let's descope this one a little B this yeah no they literally do and so uh in 2010 Land Warrior rebrands as net

39:41

Warrior this is like the fourth name for this project and the bulky pack and headgear are replaced by a resect Android phone secured to The Soldier's chest and so they basically flip it down and then they can see maps and all the information but it doesn't need any of

39:56

the headset not heavy on the face uh kind of leaning into like what the technology was good at at the time and so mobile technology had evolved to fulfill much of Williams Owen William Owen's Vision but the Army was determined to extract more from its decades long investment in 2019

40:11

Microsoft Engineers were invited to a military base to learn what soldiers needed from an augmented reality headset that weekend birthed the mark of ivas given the years of research behind the project and Microsoft's extensive experience with augmented reality one

40:25

might have expected a smooth roll out in instead ivas encountered problems from the outset soldiers were blunt in their critiques you've got to ask yourself the question in Warfare where does this Tech just become too much and not really worth having it doesn't do any more to

40:39

help the troops it may actually hinder them because of the hassle Factor another Soldier warned my worrior My worry is that if we give these to soldiers they're going to rely on them too much they need to know how to fight without them they really do others were frustrated by the logistical B burden

40:55

Perfect all I heard was we have like five new pieces of sensitive items we have to worry about common sentiment was that the system was unwieldly it doesn't look promising I mean this thing is just too way too big it looks uncomfortable it's heavy if you're sprinting jumping

41:10

running doing infantry stuff you're going to be sweating despite these concerns Microsoft and the Army remain committed to making ivas work the project holds potential to improve solders situational awareness moreover the US faces pressure to stay ahead of

41:24

technological advancements from Russia and China both of which are also pursuing augmented reality programs the military is determined not to fall behind their current goal is to deploy working Hollow lens based headsets into the field this was written in 2022 they

41:40

wanted to deploy it by the end of 2023 it's always just a few years away hopefully that changes going forward because andral's on the job and they've been able to ship stuff like a tech company which is great uh and so we wish the entire andal team massive luck in this endeavor go get them build some

42:01

cool stuff get it out in the field help our soldiers and uh and I'm Proud to be an American's move on the next story let's do it we got a massive news story from Blake sha over at boom supersonic boom supersonic no longer has booms they cracked it today we are introducing

42:20

boomless Cruise superon Sonic flights up to 50% faster with no audible sonic boom We quietly har har demoed this on xb1 first supersonic flight three times actually uh how did it work it's actually a well-known physics uh called the mock cut off when an aircraft breaks the sound barrier at a sufficiently high

42:39

altitude the boom refracts in the atmosphere and curls upward without reaching the ground it makes a U-turn before anyone can hear it mock cutof physics is a theoretical capability on some military supersonic aircraft now xb1 has proven it with airliner ready technology just as a light Ray bendz is

42:57

goes through a glass of water sound Rays Bend as they go through media with varying speeds of sound uh this means the supersonic booms can make a U-turn in the atmosphere without ever touching the ground boomless Cruise requires engines powerful enough to break the

43:11

sound barrier at an altitude high enough that the boom has enough altitude to U-turn and real-time weather and Powerful algorithms to predict the boom's propagations precisely now I heard an interesting take on this that even though they cracked the science and I and I think NASA and some government

43:29

organizations were working on uh Sonic Boom reduction and the militaries had some technology here uh it's obviously it's a huge thing to get this into a commercial craft so congratulations to the boom team um but uh even though the the uh the the technology might be here

43:47

now uh the law has not caught up and I think it is in many places illegal to fly at supersonic speeds even if you're not producing an audible supersonic boom on the ground because we have a speed limit not a sound limit so obviously uh this needs some some some legal uh work

44:07

to get in and uh you know I hopefully hopefully this will be a bipartisan issue hopefully this will be a thing that everyone supports don't give uh MKBHD a boom Super Sonic because he will just be he will just be ripping around school zones being like if nobody can

44:24

hear me I can't get in trouble uh but no I think I I I I do ask myself did they know did they think that they were going to be able to achieve this when they named the company and they just thought hey this is still if we can pull this off it'll be ironic that the Boom the supersonic plane company

44:47

actually doesn't produce the supersonic boom it's just the Boom Jet so I think it works either way whether or not they were planning on it but um I just I just this is such a great story to me I'm I'm you know it's still unfolding but to we've talked about this before but to go

45:04

from this like horrible recap down round everybody kind of rallying to say hey this is an important American company we want to save it nobody else is is um you know we need teams working on this problem to now seeing a very real reality where a decade from now we could

45:21

be getting on a boomjet and flying to you know across the country in you know I don't know how long they're actually predicting that it'll take but a fraction of the time uh is just really exciting so I look forward to doing a live uh a live show in the jet traveling

45:38

at supersonic speeds it's gonna be congratulations to Blake and the boom team it's incredible how long you've been at this and the results you're finally getting patience is a virtue and it paid off here so congrats yeah well let's move on to our next segment Andre

45:54

and horrorwitz has just released a New Market map on text to web Market map time uh text to web app and website generation Market map from Justine Moore at Venture twins uh new a16z thesis building websites apps with AI there's been explosion of products that help users Vibe code a web app from text

46:15

prompts we Dove deep on these tools who's using them how they work and where they might be headed now this got a little spicy I quot tweeted this with a video of a rainbow six Siege streamer saying incredible map knowledge incredible map knowledge holy map knowledge uh just because I think it's

46:32

like the funniest video ever and I've been waiting for a market map to drop to post this clip and I think she thought I was talking trash because she replied with a video saying uh from girls I believe saying um something to the effect of like oh you're you're you're

46:47

coming after me just for trying but I'm not and I'm on record saying that there is massive Alpha for the first VC firm to go back to simply talking about doing deals and making money and so not talking trash that was that was a banger let's let's uh let's get this

47:03

over 1K yeah yeah go like this we're we're 40 40 likes away um and uh and so so I I I am I am fully uh pro market map I love Market maps and I think that I understand why she thought I was talking trash because Market maps have been derided as a little like if there's a

47:24

market map you're too late and I think that's true for people that are thinking about what company should I start or maybe even what company should I seed invest in but if I'm a customer like I don't know about these products this is genuinely helpful to me as a customer

47:40

like we need to build websites for our company uh for our podcast to things I want these and as a growth stage investor someone who later stage even in the public markets being aware of this stuff all of the the the work that's that went into this Market map is actually valuable and I think it's a

47:55

little bit of an odd it's it's a little bit of an odd take because everyone's been talking trash about Market maps for so long but I am pro market map I Am pro uh this this core Venture content that stays away from deranged politics I love Market Maps I I just it's a way for investors to basically

48:12

out you know open source their deal flow and insights and I think it's a it's um people yeah people joke about it but it's genuinely interesting to cover and I actually think we should do more segments on the show where we break down a spefic cfic Market obviously we're

48:28

doing we're doing that now Court courtesy of Justine um it's kind of funny they left off web flow on the website Generation section which feels like a big player that was one of the first things that that stood out to me felt like webflow is like very hot only a few years ago um but one thing that's

48:48

it's kind of this interesting Dynamic it seems like website generation or website Builders like webflow you know framer Squarespace Wicks they seem to be uh good businesses overall because people set them up and generally forget about them and they find ways to like stack

49:07

fees so it starts at $20 a month and next thing you know you're paying $150 for you don't even know why um so they seem to be good businesses but it seems like there's because they're these sort of single player one to many products there's no moat in these businesses at

49:24

all right so they're able to get to many meaningful scale but there's no reason like framer came out and I was like okay this is just a better version of web flow right it's like the billing is more clear I like the user interface more it's less clunky and developers in my

49:40

network quickly got comfortable with building on framer when before everybody it seemed like was building on webflow so Yep this is and and so the last thing that uh the last thing that these companies that are more these Legacy website generation and hosting companies

49:55

needed was more competion because they were already facing like tons of competition from each other and so now you have this new category that really I think like the generative AI experience applied to websites makes a lot of sense right because if I'm working with a designer I'm like hey here's two sites I

50:13

like this is my brand this is what I want it to look like these are the features and then basically it's the same thing as like I could just type that into a text box add the add the relevant links and then hit generate and that's very Sim IL to me just talking to a designer explaining what I want and

50:28

then coming back to it and then even when you get a version one of the site you can be like change this change that and again you can just still deliver that via you know the sort of llm chat style interface so I I'm um I I still wonder if it's one of those things like

50:45

you know you sort of use this for like a quick V1 of a site and then you just still transition to working with a developer but you can imagine the developers might just end up as these tools get better just using the same tools in the same way that that you use

50:57

framer web flow yeah yeah so I mean I think text is the universal interface uh even even if these website builders make it easy to change the background color that can often be hidden in some UI six levels deep in menus and just saying it into an llm is often uh more Universal

51:16

and more accessible so uh that's obvious uh now the question of why web flow is left off it's possible that they haven't launched a text to web product yet they might just be behind on that because I think I think this Market map is specifically for it is a chat interface

51:32

or a text interface that then builds a website or a web app but there are a lot of cool companies on here and uh it's interesting because during the Super Bowl there was an ad for a website generator and it had uh uh Barry Keogan somebody some famous actor was like

51:48

laptops I don't remember that's the thing it was either Square P space or Wix but he's going around this Irish town and he's throwing laptops to to let people know that they could design a beautiful website if you're like the local pub and it was very cute and he's

52:01

riding the stonkey and he's this famous guy I think he dated Sabrina Carpenter and yeah it was Squarespace okay it was Squarespace but it could have been Wix because I don't think of them as like super differentiated products and there's a big question about um will the Legacy generators be able to retool

52:16

their brand fast enough to let the the the the market know hey we have the best text to text to web development tools like we we've rolled these out we're not behind versus a new company that comes in with that as their main their main like go to market hook and their main

52:33

marketing messages hey it's just text uh that's a big differentiator and it's always hard for the for the Legacy companies to kind of say hey hey we we also have the AI tools don't worry yeah so so goad is a good example this popular place to buy you know a domain they like absolutely Jam their

52:51

sort of AI website generation tools in your face it's actually really annoying to use it as just a pure uh domain you know hosting registar because they're so oriented around okay youve spent $12 on this domain now we're going to upsell you on this sort of AI gener generated website and so I think

53:09

that I can easily see some of these registrars just buying these text to website generators if they get if they actually like start to really execute on the product side because it has been sort of a funny experience where you know historically you register your

53:23

domain and then you then go to some other site you got to connect the too and and Squarespace was pretty aggressive you know they they acquired Google domains if you remember that and that transition I think is still happening um and so all these all these um platforms know that the the two

53:41

things should be integrated but it's a weird challenge too because you don't know am I developing that you know over time companies tend to want to just fully own their web you know experience in front end they they and they end up hosting on you know AWS or sort of other

53:56

other platforms outside the registar so you're kind of in this weird space of of work building for prosumers and smbs individuals and then you know who knows where it goes from there but well let's read through some more of this thread and uh Justine's analysis uh to start

54:13

why is there so much Buzz thousands of users from consumers to experienced developers are sharing what they've made with these tools the growth is impressive bolt is at 20 million ARR lovable is at 10 million in two months of monetization uh now how do these products work most llms uh generate code

54:31

based on the prompt and then run it through middleware Logic for things like tracking files and API calls uh the agents then push the code to a browser execution environment that streams the display to the user um but do they really work obviously uh llms hallucinate a lot there's a lot of risk

54:48

uh Justine says yes and no they excel at simple builds and if you can't code otherwise they feel like magic but there's a limit to what they can rely generate uh Integrations are difficult bugs persist and code can get too big quickly uh now how do users pick a

55:04

product Justine says that that uh a16z interviewed dozens of customers and scoured thousands of posts and they created a flowchart uh so where do you want to start code or text well there's code generation and editing tools versus do you want to make a website or web app

55:19

if you want to make a web app do you want fine grain control over the design yes if you're a designer do you need to be able to export the design Des as code then you're going to need UI generation tools with code migration so all of this depends on the level of sophistication

55:34

and uh really what the developer is end goal is this just some fun side project that they're trying to build in an hour or is this the start of a real business that will eventually have software developers coding with cursor and then eventually they'll get Devon involved

55:47

and be pushing things through a traditional GitHub repo or is this just something where I want this website live today and I don't even want to get off my phone so yeah she goes and gives shoutouts to a ton of different companies um and that's what's so great

56:01

about these Market Maps is that they do a great job of uh of showing a bunch of different companies and highlighting everyone together uh it really brings that the the particular Community together uh and so there are a number of uh segments here obviously consumers uh

56:18

you think about the long tale of personalized apps the cater to Unique interests and needs there's a guy here who built a bedtime story creator probably for his son or daughter um there's a second user segment which is developers that people can code but they use text to web app tools to get a leg

56:35

up on prototyping and shipping new things and then the last segment is consultants and agencies these people aren't typically Engineers but they're hired to make websites for solopreneurs and smbs they previously used tools like Squarespace and Wix but now they are using these a tools there's still Alpha

56:53

and going to your local plumber and offering to build them website for $1,000 and generating it in two in two seconds with with one of these uh apps there's you've probably got like 10 more years before people fully figure it out yeah it also just really speaks to the

57:11

the importance of distribution like the instantiation of these ideas is getting easier and easier you can have an idea spin up a website have it live in a day even if you're non-technical but then yeah where are you going to share it are you going to run ads against it is the

57:25

monetization funnel good or is it just going to live out there maybe share it with some friends like I'd probably use that bedtime story Creator but I'm hearing of it for the first time now um there used to be a we did you ever use stumble upon back in the day do you

57:38

remember this thing yeah yeah that was U yeah yeah uh Garrett uh G Built it uh really really cool tool you would just click it and it would take you to a random website on the internet that was submitted and you would just find crazy websites in the open web completely not

57:53

a thing anymore I actually built a version of of stumble upon that would scrape my Twitter feed and Export all the links there and then I could stumble upon the tweets the links in the tweets of my feed and I could just look through all those and it was really fun it was

58:09

really cool now it's impossible because no one shares links and links don't even work and stuff so it would just be it would just be a a feed of only fans spam Bots that are saying yeah probably please look at the link in my awful awful terrible um but yeah great Market map thanks for posting it

58:28

Justine and hopefully there's no hard feelings about the the Rainbow Six meme I thought it was funny anyway let's move on to our next top story we got a way to invest in alien technology I have been saying this for a long time people say oh the aliens are here the aliens are

58:45

there uh we got some evidence and I've always said look call me when we're ready to commercialize the technology it's not moving the market I don't care I don't care if there's a massive UFO parked outside in downtown LA if I can't make money off of it I'm not paying

58:58

attention but fortunately now you can pay attention to it because Tuttle Capital has filed for an alien Tech ETF the new fund to invest in Reverse engineered alien technology based on government disclosures about UFOs Tuttle Capital has filed to invest in reversed engineered alien technology this is

59:16

exactly what I was asking for this is not Financial advice by the way um but I'm sure this will be available on public.com when it goes live um with the Tuttle Capital UFO disclosure AI powered exchange traded fund which is one of eight new products the manager has

59:30

registered with the SEC with the ticker UFO great ticker and an the actively managed UFO ETF will invest at least 80% of its net Assets in a basket of companies that Tuttle Capital believes to have potential exposure to Advanced or reverse engineered alien technology John you're missing a big Point here

59:50

which is that it's AI powered ETF so not only will it be you know an ETF with a basket of assets that may have exposure to reverse engineered or alien technology it will be managed by AI which to me is like as a guy who loves AI I mean you're you're making the

1:00:09

perfect ETF for me here right yeah can't get any can't get any better right we need to have Jesse Michaels on to discuss this to get the to get the take we got to have Packy on I know P's been watching a lot of Jesse uh I mean this probably isn't the the SEC probably wouldn't allow you to advertise uh

1:00:28

Securities uh in this way but you know the obvious play for Tuttle and and their UFO uh ETF is to just like create the New Jersey drone effect but all over the country so just like put drones everywhere you know that are doing light shows that say you know fly a swarm of

1:00:49

drones over a small town that's been Untouched by technology do it you know you know make everybody think they're being invaded by aliens and then do a drone light show immediately after it says like buy UFO today uh and I don't know if you can do that but I know that

1:01:05

you can advertise ETFs I see ads for ETFs on Bloomberg and CNBC all the time um yeah it was really popular during the the Bitcoin ETF launch um but also you just see I shares QQQ ETFs all sorts of TAC ETFs that are out there uh you know downside risk mitigated ones debt ones

1:01:23

uh people advertise ETFs all the time so hope we'll be able to see ETFs so here's here's some Alpha so uh adquick can help you execute uh drone swarm ads like light the light show ads and so what Tuttle should do the second they launch this log on to adquick get uh get ready to uh

1:01:47

you know do a drone swarm ad for their ETF over the Manhattan skyline but the key is make everybody think early on that it's an actual as alien inv people pull out their phones because we've talked about out of home strategy before you want them to think that they're

1:02:01

being invaded by aliens and boom it's an ad for UF buy it on public.com I love it it's a great partnership there um so the companies in the ETF to start will include Aerospace groups and defense contractors that may have research and development programs rumored to work with classified technology potentially

1:02:21

leading to groundbreaking advancements Matthew tutle the chief EX Tuttle Capital said he has been interested in UFOs for years while they are by definition an unknown quantity Tuttle said he believes he believed investing in UFOs and the technology they may use

1:02:37

could take off once his product hits the market I'm a Trader I look at UFOs and I say if they're using a power source that is Light Years beyond anything we have if our government has this technology and it's released that will be a game Cher each ETF will be traded on the CBOE

1:02:54

B bzx tax exchange the forthcoming products do not have S set launch dates or listed fees the ETF will short companies that are threatened or could be made obsolete because of Any alien level technology that is discovered so you you got to harden your business to alien technology you know yeah if you're

1:03:14

out there you're saying and you're saying hey hey our business is gonna be great as long as aliens don't show up well get ready for a short position to get built in your company yeah uh this is this is the time every company that's privately held is you know feeling very

1:03:29

grateful because you know you might be wanting to IPO in a couple years but that gives you some time to build up the narrative around that you're using alien technology like I want to see stripe I want to see stripe talking about their alien payment rails that they're using I

1:03:42

want to see ramp talking about their their alien payment rails you know I want to see I've said this I've said this for a long time about Salesforce like if you think about you know if you're an alien if you're an alien species and you're managing essentially a Fleet of sales reps across the entire

1:03:59

galaxy you're going to have some really Advanced CRM running that program and all of a sudden if one of these uh if one of these uh Alien sdrs uh crash lands and we get a hold of this alien CRM no one's going to be buying Salesforce anymore and so that's a major

1:04:15

risk to that stock and so uh obviously not Financial advice but uh I I I'd watch out if you're if you're a Salesforce shareholder and uh the alien ETF is taking in a short position Anything Could Happen well said well said and so ufd UFO's launch is not a sure thing however according to Tuttle

1:04:34

without sufficient information sourced from government disclosures on UFOs the product might not go to market but he's optimistic that there will be disclosures uh the risky and opaque nature of alien investment is not lost on Tuttle and his firm can't believe

1:04:49

that was printed in the financial times government confirmation or denial of advanced alien is uncertain and rumored breakthroughs might never materialize this entire theme is highly speculative and subject to rumor Cycles uh the other seven so they're launching seven others

1:05:05

the agentic AI ETF Ai and Healthcare AI power generation drone industry AI ETF Quantum Computing AI ETF UFO technology may be out of reach for the average investor but AI is one known advancement that Tuttle believes is reshaping the financial landscape what AI can do as a

1:05:24

GameChanger and I don't think people have fully wrapped their heads around that said Tuttle who added that he used AI for 90% of his investment process and so we'll be following I love I love uh Tuttle capital is just absolutely hurling ETFs at the market I mean it is uh it is impressive uh he has

1:05:48

you know more more ETFs than some people have uh positions so uh an absolute dog so stay tuned for more on ufood we'll be covering it here on the show uh let's move on to the GPU Whisperer who's making software for data centers this is Aaron gin the co-founder and CEO of Hydra host wait I I hate to interrupt

1:06:11

but we got a comment from Calder in the chat he says SEC uh securing extraterrestrial currency he said it was right in front of us this whole time so um yeah it it was programmed uh well said died great well let's move on to this article in the information the GPU Whisperer uh

1:06:34

covering Aaron gin uh is going bare metal in data centers the future of cloud computing if so it could signal a shift away from big big cloud firms toward a new group of AI Computing startups bare metal isn't a subset of rock music but an industry term for renting servers to Cloud customers on

1:06:52

terms that give them access to the hardware allowing customers to control servers directly and run their own operating software customers going this route miss out on some bells and whistles offered by big cloud firms like Amazon web services and Microsoft Azure

1:07:05

but they might gain better performance for more demanding and complex tasks like training and running AI workloads we certainly saw this with deep seek they were not on AWS they had none of the niceties of the Azure Cloud they were as bare metal as you get optimizing

1:07:21

small tweaks and memory bandwidth restrictions on their uh cluster of kind of random hodgepodge Nvidia nerfed gpus um some of the industry such as Aaron gin CEO of software firm Hydra host think this is the future gin is known to some as the GPU Whisperer this is a great moner if you're trying to get

1:07:42

through break through to the the other side we talked about we've talked about coinages there's a lot of Alpha and coining cougan law you know you already know the haze Paradox uh there there's coin new coins uh right now there's more crypto coins emerging every day than there are

1:07:59

coinages but we're hoping to flip those uh soon but you know the other side of this is monikers you want to be developing monikers all the time shipping new monikers testing you know testing the market with monikers and you know have your friends test them on you

1:08:14

you know we we have been pushing this David senra The Godfather of podcasting you know y we we we throw these out all the time we need to come up with more because uh they really they really help tell the story of an individual and help them break through in the media and so

1:08:32

uh he has an intricate knowledge of and connections to the firms that design make and install data center servers I won't explain the history of cloud computing but one thing to remember is that the big cloud firms AWS Google cloud and Microsoft Azure were

1:08:45

originally designed to allow companies to rent virtual machines uh for traditional Computing workloads like running applications or databases many believe the new wave of AI Computing startups might be better positioned to pres to provide customers with access to gpus for AI workloads which are

1:09:00

fundamentally different from hosting a website for instance gin is in that camp the GPU whisper speaks he wants to give operators of data centers firms that typically own and operate facilities Cloud computers Cloud providers use the ability to rent GPU servers directly to

1:09:16

customers data center operators have long operated like apartment landlords allowing companies like AWS to rent space in their data centers gin thinks the rise of AI Computing puts data centers in a position to be a hotel and generate more revenue from their real estate they can actually have they can

1:09:33

actually do five-day rentals weekl Long rentals long-term rentals but they have no software to do it Tooling in the data center space has been highly open to Source because the main big money cow was the cloud you either sold space to the cloud or you tried to get free

1:09:49

software to of to kind of sell to an end customer that's where Hydra host comes in Hydra sells automation software to Data Center operators so they can rent out gpus to businesses or even Cloud startups who want to rent out servers themselves so they're going a layer

1:10:05

deeper into the uh data center stack we've been talking about data centers for a long time obviously a big narrative in the AI race right now got anything uh I mean my head immediately goes to Why haven't we personally put money into Hydra because it seems like every everybody you become friends with

1:10:26

10 years later their companies go public so you got to learn from the mistakes of like 2012 John cougan and just gotta give Aon a call yeah let's let's get him on the show well big congrats to him uh he already manages 15,000 gpus with its software embedded in 30 data centers

1:10:45

across 14 companies he hopes to manage a million gpus in the next two years and massive breaking news this has not been covered on TBN yet therefore before it is breaking news uh Hydra host last month raised an $8 million in a round LED by Scott McNeil's Flume Ventures

1:11:03

boom siiz gong baby bringing its total amount raise to $22 million the latest round was a simple agreement for future Equity safe at a $500 million cap let's go okay that's the most Boomer way to write out round like if you write out that you clearly don't know

1:11:25

meme of like this the German meme from glorious bastards right like oh oh simple agreement for future Equity what's going information guys yeah yeah I don't think Jessica I don't think Jessica this oh who wrote this got gotta go to YC demo day Ana G dizzy yeah get your game up uh but Mass congrats to

1:11:49

them $500 million cap Banger company half unicorn uh so cruso Cloud uh CEO Chase lockmiller who we've covered on the show before uh who and a guy who just left lamb Lambda labs they came in as Angel Investors uh Trey Stevens from Founders fund previously LED hydra's $8 million

1:12:09

seed round which included paler founder Joe Lonsdale so all the boys are in this one it's great company we're excited to highlight it on the show and congrats to Aaron the GPU Whisperer let's leave it at that let's leave it at that and let's stay with uh with Trey Stevens and the defense boys

1:12:30

because uh John CNU over at the Wall Street Journal has got an oped pouring some cold water on the defense Tech boom let's see what he's got to say he says Tech firms want to upend the Pentagon the old defense guard has some has some lessons for them upstart defense upstart

1:12:47

defense contractors such as paler upstart it's 20-year-old company it's worth a quarter trillion trillion it's a quarter trillion it's decades old a little it's not 80 years old they couldn't possibly know what they're doing like you can only know what you're doing if everyone who started the

1:13:05

company is dead I I was looking at one of Palmer's uh Rivals like the General Dynamics founder or something and there's a picture of him uh on a literally on a Civil War era submarine because the guy developed like the first submarine for General General Dynamics which

1:13:24

eventually spun out general atomics which is now going head-to-head with andal in the uh coll in the CCA fight and the collaborative compat aircraft and so I was like trying to Benchmark the founders and I traced it back and I was like I was like the founder of the

1:13:39

of the company Palmer is fighting with or duking it out for this contract died a hundred years before Palmer was born something like that it was like insane I was like his birthday he's more than he's like 150 years older than Palmer and like this is the this is the

1:13:55

difference in culture like we're going to see we're going to put it to the test can the Young Bucks make it happen well let's find out in this wall stre Journal article what you got Jord I I have so little trust in mainstream media especially especially op-eds which op-eds are just an opportunity to just

1:14:10

like basically fud whatever's going on like it seems like every time you hear about an oped it's it's uh or pump or pump I mean soft the world that was an oped by Mark Andre Teal's got some great Banger op out there [Music] floating when you hear about an when you

1:14:29

hear about an oped from somebody in our world yeah it's usually to predict something about the future yep and when you hear about an opad uh that's not from our team it's usually to FUD something that that our team is doing yep yep yep so our boys they're coming for our boys and and everybody's

1:14:48

everybody's deeply conflicted if you're not deeply conflicted by the age of 30 you're not heavily invested enough exactly everybody conflicted everybody's pumping their bags uh this guy riding the oped probably has has he's just mad because he's holding North's locked Mark

1:15:07

General yeah Ben pull up side with the chart look at this chart chart pull up the chart yeah uh this is uh this is North R Grumman General Dynamics and locked Martin uh flat for the last year and paler is like mooing up 300% uh so a lot of a lot of hot takes flying given given

1:15:28

the spiciness in the market uh let's let's read through some of this maybe we got to put in the truth Zone we'll decide maybe there's some good points you know maybe Jon's on to something let's let's give him a shot uh in the defense business silicon Valley's motto

1:15:41

of move fast and break things doesn't always ensure Victory there is a Divergence across military contractors the stock of paler which is riding the artificial intelligence boom is up 34% from a week ago after the software and dat analytics giant reported 75% growth in earnings per share for 2024 at the

1:16:00

same time shares in locki Northrup and General Dynamics have fallen over the past six months what's going on guys put together their market value is now less than peners this is in part because Elon musk's Doge has led investors to believe military procurement will be reshaped to

1:16:16

cut waste let in new entrance and give priority to software drones and Robotics paler as well as musk SpaceX open Ai and Robotics and AI specialist andoral Industries are cheering for change at the expense of Legacy players quote Oh from the absolute boy sham Sankar paler

1:16:35

CTO he says we sense a huge amount of fear among the traditional systems integrators and providers here uh some Legacy software projects he added our sacred cows of the deep State sham not pulling punches I love it let's go wow uh a lightning rod for criticism of the

1:16:54

Pentagon including musk himself has been using it has been its use of Cost Plus agreements which reimburse contractors for expenses incurred and add a fee for profit margin on top Cost Plus contracts were Infamous infamously used in Lock's F35 lightning to not just for developing

1:17:12

the fighter as is almost always the case since R&D is uncertain but also to buy several initial batches of it only later purchase of the aircraft which has become the most expensive military program in history have started placing the burden of cost overruns on the company rather than the public purse

1:17:30

this is why the Air Force is now buying the first limited production units of the B21 bomber in developed with North R under fixed price contracts the US space force created by President Trump in 2019 strongly favors them too as do the Silicon Valley challengers challengers

1:17:45

indeed analysts believe that the shift away from Cost Plus will accelerate under defense secretary Pete hegseth who has pledged to make procurement nimbler but the industry has been down this road many times before in the 50s officials made heavy use of Cost Plus contracts to

1:18:02

Foster innovation in response to huge expense overruns Robert mcnamer introduced total package procurement in the 60s which involved fixed price deals after many firms bid too aggressively for projects and ended up bankrupt or close to it locky had to ask Washington for a bailout the framework was

1:18:18

abandoned yet fixed price Contracting regained popularity in the 80s and the private sector once again burned its fingers the pendulum has kept swinging back and forth since so's saying hey you guys have it good right now your stocks Riding High but you're doing these fixed

1:18:34

price contracts you get one wrong you might wind up bankrupt but you know we know the people that run these companies and they're really sharp and I don't think they're going to make mistakes but we'll see yeah it's interesting because every every business runs that risk

1:18:49

right and it creates a posit it means that Capital generally does not get incin incinerated to the degree that it does within defense right that said defense has two you know two factors out of many that drive this sort of overspending one is projects become too important to National Security to fail

1:19:12

and so sometimes startups they they have an ambitious product that you know project or idea they try to build it and they're unsuccessful and there's no nobody to bail them out right the investors say like we don't want to put more money into this like it just didn't

1:19:24

work so it fail sales the issue with technology that relates to National Security is if our peer adversaries are developing the same technology and we want to you know maintain or exceed uh their capabilities we just can't allow for specific technology to fail and so

1:19:40

there is some situations where things should be like they're they're too important to fail that said the other factor is that you have internal cheerleaders for a technology in the dod or various you know parts of the military that be that bet their career on a specific you know project or

1:19:58

technology and then suddenly they're the ones fixated on that thing working out because they've told everybody in their professional life like no this is important and we need this and we just should keep spending and spending and spending um but what happens is um one

1:20:13

of one of the uh I'm an adviser mentioned this's company on the podcast before to a company called uh Aon and they're like developing groundbased tactical missile systems and already they're producing missile systems that cost 80% less than what the primes are able to make that for right and so it's

1:20:32

uh the sort of Cost Plus model once you have an established program of and and the technology is working and it's deployed it's almost like the Cost Plus model works for like super high-risk R&D to incentivize but then at a certain point once it's established you don't

1:20:49

want it to be Cost Plus because then the manufacturer says well we're just going to run up the price on this so that we can generate more margin for our shareholders yep so I think that the The Cost Plus thing really comes down to the iteration cycle here and so when you

1:21:04

think about all the R&D even the best startup the best people the best technology the hottest company you're not going to be able to build a new aircraft carrier in a year it's just not going to happen and so when you look at something like the F-35 it's it's just a massive project and although there were

1:21:21

major cost overruns it took way too long uh it's something that was going to take decades no matter who was who who was at the helm at least a few years like it was going to take a while whereas when you look at what Apple does Apple's releasing a new iPhone every single year

1:21:36

for better or worse if the cost comes down they can cut their cost that year people buy new phones same thing if the cost goes up they can raise the price a little bit and and so for these things that are triable systems you have more ability to iterate on the price as well

1:21:51

because you're not locked into that same contract and you can actually uh you don't need to do the Cost Plus thing as much now this would be very bad if you think about andal going bigger and going into the uh aircraft carrier space or going after the next F-35 project they

1:22:06

really could wind up saying hey we're doing a fixed price contract and they could get bitten but andrel is only playing and I think they will continue to play because the of the way Warfare is evolving in these Atri systems and so what's the future of warfare it's not an

1:22:21

even bigger aircraft carrier it's a drone swarm how will drones purchased 100,000 drones every single year and there'll be a new drone that comes out every year you're already seeing this with the ghost platform at andal they're helicopter drone they're on like ghost 4

1:22:35

five five I can't even keep I can't even keep track and when you think about the headset the ivas system Microsoft was going to produce a 100,000 of those obviously that was not going to be 100,000 all in one go it was going to be 10,000 and then 20,000 a quarter and if

1:22:50

andal really Nails the ivas program they're going to be iterating on that there's going to be new head sets new features coming out every single year we see how fast the technology is advancing in the consumer space there's no reason why the military would not want to integrate even better screens and and

1:23:05

better batteries and you know better better CPUs and all this stuff so it will look a lot more like an Apple product release which gives them more flexibility to stay on that fixed price contract and not lock in a price that will you know that they have to deal with and they don't have to predict it

1:23:22

out 10 years they're saying hey we got a v here this is what it cost us this is what we think we should sell it for you know this is what we can deliver it for we're working against that and there's much less Capital At Risk so I'm optimistic Let's uh let's close out with

1:23:35

the end of this uh article a little bit says as much as upfront setting of prices as the standard in the private sector defense procurement is different yes today's highly Consolidated defense industry gives contractors more leverage but it also exposes a single customer

1:23:50

with unrealistic and everchanging goals uh big generational programs are scarce and firms must bid aggressively or risk losing a Core Business segment this was the case with the B21 uh the Raider uh which has now caused large write Downs for Northrup in its fourth quarter

1:24:06

earnings report locki reported a 72% drop in operating profit profit alongside a $1.7 billion charge on fixed price contracts mostly related to missiles in its own quarterly release Boeing took a $ 1.7 billion hit related to fixed pric contracts on its t7a Jet

1:24:27

and so uh lots of companies are in trouble for these big big massive programs that they take on I think the new direction is avoid those big projects both from a financial perspective but also from the nature of warfare uh uh perspective the future is systems and that results in more

1:24:46

flexibility on the financial side as well uh I don't think I don't think it's uh anybody should feel bad for the boeings and the and the Rons and the locked Martins for taking a big risk for a huge payoff right like Yep they're they they're making a calculated risk in

1:25:05

the sense that hey would we risk you know uh 10 billion do to make a hundred billion dollars yes right you know that's like a good bet to take and so when it doesn't work out they're going to complain and say that you know they should have been bailed out or or or they should have been uh but but again

1:25:25

there's a difference between the taxpayers and the shareholders they're not there's there's a vend diagram but they're they're very different groups and so it's not uh it shouldn't always be the responsibility of the of the taxpayer if a uh defense contractor

1:25:41

blows way over budget or fails to execute right like there needs to be consequences otherwise you get situations like the the Microsoft program where they get20 billion do to deliver nothing right yeah just doesn't make any sense yeah completely agree well overall I think this was a pretty

1:25:58

good article uh raises some interesting questions uh closes with a with with a quote from Byron Kalen at Cal Capital Alpha Partners uh he says ultimately I don't see how the smaller guys are immune to the same problems that have caught the traditional players obviously

1:26:14

I I gave a counterargument to that already uh none of this to denies the market thesis that Prime military contractors have gotten complacent and that the likes of paler and andal can re large rewards from expanding their defense foothold especially since their investors are laser focused on growth in

1:26:31

the case of software which has shorter development cycles and a blurrier line between development and production the recent pivot towards fixed fixed cost contracts and tapping upstart biders has a greater chance of being successful great strategists however must learn from the mistakes of the past and I

1:26:47

think that speaks to you know the real risk is uh one of the new defense defense companies taking on too large of a project basically betting the entire Farm on something that might not even be that relevant if a smaller more triable system can make it irrelevant to begin

1:27:05

with yeah take the risk bet the farm if you have the conviction in in completely independent of a potential bailout right it seems like you know these contractors were willing to take big risks if they felt like there was a good chance that they would also get a bailout if they

1:27:21

weren't successful but we want them to uh you know be comfortable with taking risks independently because you know the the reward of you know massive future contract should be the incentive not there there should not be risk-free Innovation right as a privately held

1:27:38

company with with shareholders and running as a for-profit organization I agree uh well let's move on to our next story uh the hymns Super Bowl ad uh there's an article in the Wall Street Journal here him Super Bowl ad spotlights weight loss drug copycats as

1:27:55

clock ticks on their business uh there's a full-blown War over copycat versions of Blockbuster obesity drugs but their days are likely numbered during Sunday's Super Bowl hims and hers Health ticker HS a teleah health provider known for its provocative ads promoting erectile

1:28:12

dysfunction and hair loss treatments aired a commercial portraying America's obesity epidemic as a rigged game where people are denied affordable weight loss medications because of a greedy Healthcare System system the ad positioned him and hers which sells a

1:28:27

compounded version of semaglutide a copy of the active ingredient in noo nordis wui and OIC as a Robin Hood of healthcare there are no there are medications that work but they're priced for profits not patience the narrator says as Childish Gambino's social justice Anthem this is America plays in

1:28:46

the background hmns and hers offers life-changing weight loss medications they're affordable doctor trusted and for at in the United States predictably the ad sparked backlash even before the big game a pharmaceutical lobbying group called Pharma labeled it misleading and

1:29:04

Senators dick Durban and Roger Marshall a Democrat and a republican sent a letter to the FDA calling it a deceptive advertisement that failed to disclose side effects of or safety risks unlike traditional Pharma ads spokeswoman for hyns said the ad aims to raise awareness

1:29:21

to a critical issue the Obesity Public Health crisis by showcasing the impact of obesity and realities of the lack of access to life-saving weight loss treatments and so uh him stock is way up the company is doing fantastically uh but little bit of controversy about the

1:29:37

compounding strategy uh what did you see the ad Jordy what did you think about it uh what do you think about the ad that just the overall strategy of uh advertising weight loss drugs at the Super Bowl uh so one I think that TJ Parker had probably one of the better takes here I don't know if you remember the

1:29:56

post maybe we could pull it up he he was hyper critical of it so for those that don't know uh TJ uh is the founder of pillpack sold it to Amazon for a billion dollars built a healthtech company the hard way like being very very very diligent about following the rules and

1:30:12

working well with the regulators and that's part of the reason they had such a big outcome and were able to be acquired by you know a massive player like Amazon um his he he pushed back and he was basically like you're completely uh disrespecting all you know patent law

1:30:28

with this you're selling at the same exact price as the um the people that actually own the IP and you're playing in a very aggress you know very aggressively in a gray Market that um isn't you know you're not even passing on those benefits to uh consumers right so his his main takeaway was you're

1:30:49

selling this for the same cost as the other players yet you are you know trying to position them as as taking advantage of of consumers and so he felt it was somewhat disingenuous I mean this is not the first time that hims has been in hot water uh the CEO Andrew and and

1:31:10

this again for context like hims and hers was like one of the big success stories out of the D Toc era there was like very few companies that made it1 billion it might be literally the most successful DTC company other than maybe chewy uh to come out but even that's

1:31:27

more of an e-commerce platform um but in terms of yeah I mean huge huge success for everyone involved and so yeah there was a very long period of time where people said this company was like basically zero and like shouldn't be public because they were losing a lot of money and they flipped and then they

1:31:43

were in a bunch of they had a bunch of controversy uh it must have been back in the middle of 2023 um but uh they the CEO has uh you know family history in in Palestine and like came out very aggressively um in uh against you know sort of Israel's action there and then the stock like you know dropped

1:32:10

dramatically there was a ton of you know Short Selling pressure so he's no stranger to controversy um and so anyways I mean I I think they're just selling so much gp1s right now that the market is like basically what the market is saying to me is yeah they're they're

1:32:32

um yes of course they're bending the rules around compounding and like but they seem to be okay with that risk appetite because they're printing so much cash off of this that they're like it's one of those situations where they're like even if we get you know a few hundred million dollar fine down the

1:32:48

road like we'll just pay it and we'll be in a better position with a bigger customer base and so I just think this is one of those things hims and hers was like very well positioned to take advantage of this new development of this new drug and we've talked about you

1:33:04

know when we talked about um Nova Nordisk Nova nordis had very few customers in the US right it's very possible that him and hers is is like acquiring more customers on a day-to-day basis uh even with heavy composition from row and individual doctors and things like that so yeah so believe row

1:33:24

is uh White labeling uh or reselling and really just a portal to the actual Novo product which probably means lower margins uh whereas uh because typically the the name brand drug uh is on patent for a number of years and then it eventually goes generic um but if there

1:33:47

is a shortage uh the FDA uh will allow essentially patent infringement for from like the patent rules don't apply if there's a shortage of a drug and the FDA determines that the drug is important and this kind of makes sense you know obviously if uh if there was some sort

1:34:03

of like you know like you know cancer drug that everyone was getting a certain type of cancer and there was some cancer shortage we'd be like let's make as much as possible in every possible lab and so the the the fundamental rule makes sense and so the FDA recently declar the

1:34:18

shortage of Eli Lily's monjaro and Zep bound over but novo's uh OIC and wui remain on the shortage list uh and so this has allowed compounding to continue unabated and there's been a big big discussion over uh you know when will the shortage end when will this

1:34:36

compounding not be allowed to happen is the compounding higher quality lower quality there's been a lot of debate there uh the company said it's increasing Supply and is in talks with uh Regulators to it as it seeks to get off the shortage list so Novo does not want to be on the shortage list because

1:34:51

it means hims can comp but yeah you know it's unclear what him strategy will be post post shortage ending they could wind up acting just as an e-commerce platform to get the the the real drug the non-compounded version there's a lot of different uh ways and I think shareholders might be looking at

1:35:10

hey they're acquiring all these customers they'll still stick around and buy you know the quote unquote real thing non lower margin yeah yeah the lower margin version of exactly because I mean it is you know obviously like whole dynamic of tele medicine is uh it

1:35:26

is embarrassing to go into your doctor and say I have a problem with erectile dysfunction or I hair L problem and so you click a button it's very sterile you just go through their web flow and then boom the medicine shows up at your doorstep great great like consumer user

1:35:42

experience essentially and it's the same thing for over being overweight you might not want to talk to a doctor about that necessarily and so an A T Health tele medicine uh interaction might actually be higher verion rate for selling these drugs and if they can sell

1:35:56

more of them through even if they're at a lower margin maybe there's a bull case here I don't know we we'll see yeah TJ I pulled up TJ's post he said this was on this was on January 28th uh so they they released their ad early clearly trying to front run the other campaigns TJ uh

1:36:14

didn't hold back he said imagine shamelessly stealing IP compounding their drugs which results in patient harm time and time again selling your fraudulent product for the same net price as the original inventor and then painting them as the problem in an effing Super Bowl commercial um so you

1:36:31

know very uh you know that's his point of view words didn't mince words um the thing about compounding pharmacies that it's fascinating is you can go and just buy a compounding pharmacy for less than a million dollars and just start making drugs and and so anybody uh uh there was

1:36:49

one in my YC batch uh and I think they they didn't even buy one they just uh they just set up and got the licenses and I think they were doing uh retinol retinoid it's like acne medication skin care basically so you I mean in general if you're trying to do something with

1:37:04

health or FDA you can usually go the neutraceutical uh you know supplement route which is basically unregulated you can be like Alpha Giga brain enhancement and you can say all the crazy things you want because you're not really making claims you're only making like structure

1:37:20

and function claims then as you move up you go into comp pounding uh and then eventually you go into FDA drug typically then you're a biotech company you go through phase one phase two phase three trials you get a patent you're you are releasing like a real drug and that's what Novo and Eli Lily do

1:37:35

startups in the Silicon Valley sense have never been able to really crack that uh it's been more of like the biotech path you go public really early it's a different path um but now we're in this area blurry territory yeah so these weight loss drugs fall into the

1:37:50

pep like broadly into the peptide category and so people are uh for a while it's been this sort of gray Market of you can get peptides and and the same you can get peptides for weight loss purposes but you can also get them for you know that that stimulate testosterone production because peptides

1:38:06

end up being these sort of precursors to hormones in the body so it can be a precursor to HGH right is one so um there's a there's a famous peptide called bpc157 that is referred to as the Wolverine peptide and this is um uh this is what Aaron I think Aaron Rogers was

1:38:26

taking where he tore his ACL and like basically was back on the field in like remarkable time and so uh bpc157 allows you to heal from injuries like just ridiculously quickly there's there's you can look up on forums people that are like I broke my leg and I was like fully

1:38:42

healed in like six weeks you know so it's like really effective really uh but they're super complicated you're dealing with complex processes in the body they haven't been uh many of them haven't been studied well enough so it's very much a wild wild west um I do know

1:38:58

there's some startups that are looking to take advantage of the sort of gray market right now and um but it's a difficult space to build in because there's so much demand if you tell people like I will help you lose weight or be stronger in the gym or recover from injuries it's going to be a lot of

1:39:13

demand for that but then are you going to be able to build durable IP value without these big pharmaceutical companies coming in and TJ's Point around you know patient harm related to compounding it is a good you know there's a you know the the uh Pharma industry gets so much hate from so many

1:39:32

different types of people because they have had numerous incidents where they've done you know sort of bad things or released drugs that they knew weren't effective or that had a bunch of harmful side effects but one thing is if you're getting a drug that you know is

1:39:44

effective you actually really want it to be made in like the most you know professionalized uh commercial capacity with Incredible testing and uh that's something that that the big Pharma companies generally are going to do better than you could be ordering you know compounded W goie and it's just

1:40:03

some dude in in a random compounding pharmacy that could just be one room somewhere it's just a license right he's just making this putting it in you know a vial and chipping it off to you and then you're just injecting this into your body and so generally I think we

1:40:18

want uh patients and people that are using these drugs to have access to highly reliable you know you intensively pretty clear that the compounding like I don't know it's not even a loophole but like the compounding faracy regulations were written for hey your town might have a local pharmacist and in a

1:40:38

shortage you should be able to walk down to the pharmacy and they should be able to make you uh you know something that they can't otherwise buy and then this was taken this law it's very similar to the D Minimus loophole for teu where it's like no one thought that you could

1:40:52

put 5 billion doar of product through one company through the compounding uh like regulations uh but the free market will always put it to the test yeah how about uh we need we need hims and hers for Mass monsters what about like Chads and Stacy's something like that but I

1:41:11

mean trt I'll tell you I'll tell you offline but our our friend of the show is making a a peptide uh sort of like tele medicine type company he's gonna send us some we're going to inject it we're going to inject it on the show I know about that so all inject doing great Nat

1:41:29

and I think I want to I think I want to maintain my Natty my Natty status but we'll see maybe if I get a terrible injury I'll need to give that one a try um this is an interesting Wrinkle in here uh once you have a large customer base you essentially have a large voter

1:41:42

base on your side and they can demand regulatory changes which explores uh and so uh well Uber disrupted the taxi industry him and hers is up against Eli Lily Novo Nordisk and and the entire pharmaceutical and health insurance complex and the law is pretty clear that when it comes to a shortage is when it

1:41:59

that when a shortage is deemed over Mass compounding can't continue that's why him and hers doesn't sell compounded versions of Zep bound it may take a few more quarters but Nova Nordisk will eventually produce enough Supply to end the shortage of its drug when that

1:42:13

happens despite their efforts to influence public opinion compounded versions will likely be severely limited so fascinating story very interesting use of a Super Bowl app drove a lot of contentious debate on the timeline um but the end day probably good for business I mean I I I I knew

1:42:34

some people starting uh you know weight loss tele medicine companies and uh you know roughly two years ago and I was kind of short new entrance into tele medicine but many of them the demand is so significant and there really is a shortage broadly of these drugs that

1:42:52

almost anybody that launched and had any type of quality operating experience you know and capabilities like did pretty well um so number of companies that that just rocketed massive rounds in general hims can hims you know the narrative for hims to take the high road is to say uh

1:43:11

being fat is so unhealthy that we are willing to play in a gray Market if it means helping more people lose weight and they they do have there is a narrative to be like uh you know we are you can hate what we're doing but you know judge us based on our C on how our

1:43:29

like you know customers feel after using the product because the person that takes a hims and hers you know compounded version of one of these products and then loses 50 plus pounds I guarantee you they they have positive feelings towards hims and so I don't think we'll know the sort of impact or

1:43:49

if if him was good or bad yeah until we can see like you know enough customer and patient outcome data yeah I mean just just thinking about it like from like a technologist future of the internet thing like having a doctor that's available on your phone or your laptop over a zoom call or a text

1:44:09

message that feels like something that will be real and we've thought very narrowly about these companies early on is like this one just does Ed this one just does hair loss this one now they're doing two three but eventually I mean you could see a lot of young people

1:44:27

don't have primary care doctors they could effectively replace that and then hey we need some blood work go here do this oh we need we actually need you to go in and get a physical we need to like you know scan you or something go to this location um but for the basics uh

1:44:43

and just the prescriptions it does seem like the future is some sort of online tele medicine that's not going away and so uh you know hopefully all the companies that are working on this can get through all the complicated regulations play by the rules and uh win on product and I saw somebody on X

1:45:02

saying that uh that hims was a one trillion dollar company I've seen that too and that's very funny but maybe there's something there with like all of healthare in one app or something I don't know yeah I mean I think uh it makes sense you can make an argument that generally the ne that the next

1:45:23

trillion dollar consumer company will be in healthcare yep is is it going to be um is it going to be him no idea never been a medical aggregator in that way there are obviously massive Hospital networks there's massive drug companies but there's never been anyone that

1:45:40

succeeded in really aggregating all the market power where it's like you know if you need paper towels you're going to open up Amazon and that has not been the case where it's like if you need a refill on your medication there's one place you go unclear how much of a win

1:45:53

or take all Market it is obviously would have to be extremely monopolistic for there to be a trillion dollar outcome in the space but uh you know exciting to watch it play out I'm sure there'll be more drama in the future we'll have to have TJ on maybe we'll have to have

1:46:05

Andrew dudam on the CEO of uh himms hear it from him we gotta have we gotta have PVP debates on the show where we just take opposing views and let them let them duke it out you know ready I'm ready well speaking of PVP we got a post about PVP meme coins from arjan bology

1:46:24

he says meme coins were once fun and pure but the in but the industrialized trenches have turned a harmless PVP game into a predatory one dominated by Insider Edge traditional casino games and meme coins share a core design idea a a high return to player that masks a built-in Edge while delivering

1:46:44

intermittent variable rewards to players traditional casino games like slots and blackjack offer High rtps 90 to 99% meaning you might lose $1 in expectation of $100 of Wagers uh these games work because they leverage near Miss effects and the gamblers fallacy ensuring that

1:47:02

the lure of a big win keeps you in the game even as you're bleeding bankroll as I see it the main issue with mem coins as gambling to game today is that they have moved away from their purest form to a fully industrialized version of The Trenches initially they function more

1:47:17

like PVP slot machines most bets evaporate but there's a small chance to graduate with 5 to 25x multiplier or even hit a jackpot level payout of 100 to 1,000x when they when they temporarily become PVE The Thrill is from catching a runner or watching someone hit a massive win now only one

1:47:37

to one and a half% of pump fund launches graduate every day I would guess nearly all of these are industrialized oper operated by sophisticated influencers and insiders uh who launch them to their audiences with ever shortening half- lives the death Nowell for these games

1:47:53

is when RTP drops so low that uninformed players have no chance to profit gamblers fallacy in social media can temporarily keep the game Alive by spotlighting winners over time if nearly all profits are captured by the house Edge the player pool is liable to dry up

1:48:08

and destroys the original harmless PVP Thrills that made the memes fun in the first place what do you think about meme coins Jordy uh so funny funny anecdote uh Jason kakanis posted today like yeah please ban these meme coins uh at secg and then which is funny because you

1:48:31

can't actually ban meme coins like the the the the nature of them being just like code that runs on a blockchain yeah just kind of means that that no matter what the government says they can make it harder to onramp funds but even then it's like there's enough like actual

1:48:47

uses for crypto that it would be hard for the SEC to be like coinbase you know you can't onramp funds anymore so cat's out of the bag you know it's not going back in uh but the funny reaction to that is somebody immediately launched a token called uh Stupid effing meme coins

1:49:04

and then that went to like a multi-million dollar market cap and like immediately had a bunch of volume so all it took was one post from Jason and somebody used that as an opportunity to launch a token um so I told you this you're going to say uh you know not Financial advice like never buy meme

1:49:21

tokens and someone's going to launch a meme coin called not Financial advice or never launch M like you can't even have fun with it and that's what I really don't like about it I I follow the what would your mother say rule if you can't explain it to your mom and make her

1:49:34

proud you shouldn't be doing it uh this applies to the language that you use the vitel that you bring to the timeline as well as the pro projects that you launch um a lot of these meme coins are low class and vulgar and we don't support them here on the show yeah we will never

1:49:49

launch a token at technology Brothers but going back to the original piece I think it makes a lot of sense the the whole you know people are doing meme coins for two kind of real reasons it's like very much an entertainment thing right like gambling is entertainment

1:50:05

there's like this social entertainment uh exhilarating element to it of I might win a lot of money um but as you know as more and more of these uh you know in the same you know basically meme coins incentivize groups of people to coordinate against groups of other people so it's PVP it's can be oneon-one

1:50:28

but then it ends up being you know small groups of um there's been a lot of pressure under under a on a group called The the LA Vape cabal um which is a group uh Loosely led by somebody named FaZe Banks who was like a famous you know gaming um you know part of the FaZe

1:50:47

Clan which I think FaZe Clan was like publicly traded or maybe still is um I got to see if they're still at it um but um yeah let's see there oh the brand still lives on even though the stock's down wait no they're they I think they're at they're at a $14 million market cap and you

1:51:07

can't they were delisted it looks like Dlisted but they still do sponsorships and there's still different content creators that join their Collective essentially yeah so anyways you uh solicited zero dollars on public um but uh but anyway so so there's been a lot

1:51:24

of pressure on them uh they had the hawk Tua girl they like went on their podcast and then people were saying that they were sort of doing insider trading against that so overall like it feels like they're again the president launcher meme coin so and and it's just sort of

1:51:42

like code that's out there running it's not going back in the bag but I don't um it what what arjent is basically saying is like unless you let the average player make some money sometimes like people are going to stop playing the game right so it's possible that um it's possible that this thing becomes it

1:52:03

feels more likely that like it needs to find some independent equilibrium versus like the government solution to me but who knows it's a wild wild space um yeah I don't know I mean we kind of went through this with the nft boom I'm surprised we're going through it again I

1:52:21

thought we learned our lessons there but uh people keep going for this stuff they can't stop gambling Americans it is funny it is interesting to think you know openc at one point was a 14 or 15 billion dollar company like I'm sure if they rais money now it' be a tiny fraction of that uh it's very possible

1:52:41

the same thing happens to to pump fun and uh they end up at a point where you know people you know people just say eventually get so burned like people got on nfts where they sitting there they're like I have a picture in my wallet that I paid $20,000 for and I don't want to

1:52:59

play this game anymore because I'm not having fun um so uh we'll we'll see what happens but one thing's for sure gambling always finds a way uh so well you know what else always finds a way the Consultants uh let's go to Rohit matal he says Accenture had $1.2 billion

1:53:18

in new bookings related to generative Ai and it has 69 9,000 people working in data and AI very funny number 69,000 people who don't know anything about AI are helping the largest US companies with navigating the fast changing AI world one of the biggest griffs in the

1:53:35

world I don't know about that I mean you can get up to speed on some of this stuff a lot of it's just like hey uh you're a massive company do you have a chat Enterprise prog uh like subscription yet because maybe your people could benefit from using chat GPT more regularly like some of the

1:53:53

transformation stuff so basic and it can drive a lot of a lot of uh shareholder value if you're just improving everyone's like just going in and saying like the recommendation from some of these companies might be like hey go install Devon go get cognition and like

1:54:08

you know okay you just have an extra developer and the ROI on that contract is positive and they it's crazy to think because you think you would just go on X and figure it out yourself but if you're a massive company and you need to pay Accenture to tell you this or put it

1:54:22

together in a deck or or do all the implementation stuff on what's the legal implications how does this fit in our organization so I I understand where he's coming from with a grift idea but not not fully convinced actually what do you think yeah I mean uh the yeah totally I mean one it feels

1:54:41

absurd but this has always been the business of Consulting there's a new technological Trend and then they ride that Trend in order to drive you know bookings and and new demand for their services um I have talked with people in the past about you know there's totally

1:54:56

a possibility to build the AI Accenture that helps people use AI so like basically like yeah agents as consultants that are internal at companies sort of helping uh employees better leverage AI tools in the business because if for example you had an employee with a basically some screen

1:55:14

capture all day long and it was just analyzing what you're doing all day and saying almost like clippy style like hey did you know that you could like you know use this autom or things like that so um I don't know I think companies wouldn't be spending the money if they

1:55:28

didn't feel like there was some value sometimes the value of Consulting Services is so Executives can just say hey we have an AI strategy that we're working on with Accenture and they're experts right they're paid to be experts and the value is not necessarily the actual results they drive in the

1:55:44

business it's value to the management teams to be able to say that they have things under control if they're not um but again I would look at this as like you know if I was like in college right now I would be learning how to use these new AI tools and reaching out to Legacy

1:56:02

companies that maybe aren't in the target market of Accenture because they're smaller but reaching out to 10 to 50 millionar a year businesses and saying I will help you use AI better in this part of your business or I will help your developers use AI tools to be

1:56:17

more efficient right so if Accenture is booking you know 1.2 2 billion uh for their gen work um a college student should be able to print 10 20K a month just helping other you know similar businesses better leverage AI so we've talked about this on the show before that's that's the new version of I will

1:56:37

help you to use Google AdWords or I will help you to run meta ads or I will help you do social media management like that is the opportunity on the ground and so we had somebody in the audience ask um um we had somebody in the audience ask uh Green Gorilla says Brothers what advice

1:56:57

do you have for new College grads what industries companies you see the most upside in joining you were 22 or 23 today what would you do and um yeah I mean one is just like whatever you're doing don't wait to join a company to learn how to use these tools like just

1:57:13

spend 18 hours a day uh learning how to use these products sharing your work on X is a good start and then go you know there's so many companies right now uh more so than than five years ago where you can go and have that company go from 5 million of AR to you know a hundred in

1:57:33

a very short period of time so um but again there's still there's also opportunities with these Legacy businesses to go in and say I'm gonna um find find a somebody with a $50 million annual business and show them how you can replace you know $100,000 a month of of payroll by like

1:57:52

leveraging AI properly in the organization so yeah I mean that's a great take Long Lake is doing that with HOAs there's already companies doing that at larger scales with private Equity buyouts no reason that a young person couldn't start an amazing Consulting business today I love that

1:58:06

take I think that's a very good very good advice for young people uh let's move on to a post from impatient Ventures uh this is an older post but I wanted to highlight it just to give the audience a little bit more background on our friends at over at bezel uh they

1:58:22

raised an $8 million seed round uh of course we've talked about bezel before it's a watch Marketplace for buying luxury watches we're huge fans of watches here we're going to be doing a Valentine's Day gift guide lots of good stuff on bezel that you could pick up for the loved one um but uh the seed

1:58:39

round was stacked they got John Legend Kevin Hart Steve aoke Michael Ovitz Michael Rubin uh so many good uh celebrities in there tons of uh great VC firms liquidity Capital box group shrug abstract Ventures lots of lots of great VCS in there and just wanted to let the

1:58:57

audience know bezel is here to stay they're making money they've raised money it's a solid company and we love what they do and I'm quickly becoming addicted to the app yeah it's funny that that you uh you pulled this post from impatient too because the GP of

1:59:15

impatient uh Jack was in the chat on the live he was in the chat amazing he said I don't social media until now now I'm a brother lover and uh s sent from the sauna at the standard Miami so fantastic I love the standard Miami R rip a fun rip a fundraising announcement and then

1:59:35

just go hit go hit the standard um great and uh yeah crazy crazy lineup they basically got all the most watch obsessed celebrities in the world into a single round and best part about it all those celebrities were marking me up I got in at the prior round I got prior

1:59:54

round so thank you for the markup John Legend uh that's brother Behavior right there so that's great uh well here's a very random post bit of a bucket pull but I wanted to highlight on the show it's from PF Yung uh content creator on YouTube he does mostly politics uh I find him very entertaining he has a

2:00:13

series of videos describing online politics through the lens of League of Legends and they're wildly entertaining even if you don't know that much about League of Legends you can watch these and understand how all of the different groups and sub formations of how Jordan

2:00:28

Peterson and Candace Owens work together and how Hassan and Bernie Sanders work together uh fascinating content creator uh love him and he says I am assembling a loyal C cult following and it's a screenshot of a comment uh comment on his YouTube channel says at this point I only watch because it's

2:00:46

kind of fascinating to see how far someone can get as a political commentator who refuses to read the news or learn anything about politics and I love that the life of a political commentator that's the life of every uh of every uh content creator you just go out there and you rip the Vibes

2:01:04

and some people like it and some people hate it but uh we love PF young and uh we got to have him on the show if we ever get into politics he'd be a great guest but he's a very fun fun guy somebody somebody posted yesterday uh that they posted a meme responding to

2:01:21

Luke Metro and it was it was the saw this it was a cycle meme I'm just oh I got to you're fine hold it way up there but he says I look for Tech podcast I find an interesting podcast downloads go up with politics it becomes all political slop and then I look for

2:01:38

techet Tech podcast again so yep I'm going out uh to say uh to ilas that uh who posted this that we're going to hold the line uh for you strictly Tech and business forever it's on record uh we never discuss politics and de from now we're still covering Tech earnings baby we're still

2:01:59

going to be covering Tech earnings uh I genuinely out am not qualified to discuss politics and your views are just too extreme to to talk about without both of our views far too extreme for yeah it would piss off it would piss off everyone everyone everyone on both sides

2:02:17

of the aisle actually we can't share we can't share anything be too rough so we got to we got it but yes I mean that Meme is pointing out a a real phenomenon which is that uh the addressable Market The Tam of tech content just isn't that big and I mean even though acquired has not become a

2:02:39

politics show they have gone out of tech originally they were doing Acquisitions in Tech they would tell you like the story of Google Maps getting bought or the story of Instagram getting bought that's why it was called acquired then it became the history of Facebook the

2:02:53

history of Google the history of Microsoft but then they went over and did lvmh and Porsche and Mercedes and and all these just amazing firms and they' and they've graduated out of that and become a broader show and now I think of them was just a great business show they still haven't gone full

2:03:09

politics um but at a certain point you just run out of tech content and so you gota you got to add in some other spites fortunately we have discovered a hack which is instead of talking about politics we talk about luxury goods so so that this might this might uh go down

2:03:23

and we stopped talking about tech and we're just talking about uh sports cars what happened in F1 uh the latest news and horse breeding um but we won't be talking about politics that's for sure but we will be derailed a little little Alpha for for the listeners so John and

2:03:40

I maybe we mentioned this on the show we're exploring getting our own racehorse so I don't I don't think you I hav told you this yet John but tomorrow we have a call set up with a guy who specializes in in helping a race horses so uh very you know this could just become a horse podcast and in that case

2:03:58

would be cool because then we'd have just Tech journalists come on the show exactly they could talk about tech and we would just be constantly trying to talk about horses and it' be this Dynamic where they're like what are you guys you're the technology Brothers but

2:04:09

you only want to talk about the the the the you know prepping for the Derby you know yeah yeah exactly and everyone will be like oh I missed when it was a tech show now they just talk about horses oh no it's all horse con cont they're tooed like they just want to go back to the

2:04:25

old days the old episodes are so good well that's the way the cookie crumbles folks you know we might get derailed who knows but not today because we're still talking about tech and we have an update breaking news from Mato over at eight sleep he says sleep Fitness is taking

2:04:40

over the world and the eight sleep pod is now available in Mexico so if you're listening from Mexico go buy an eight sleep pod buy 10 right now code TBN I think that's our code but yeah we love eight sleep I have been crushing it got a 100 sleep score my first two nights

2:04:58

ago let's see what I did last night it was a little rough oh 100 let's go I got another 100 Sunday 100 Monday 97 Tuesday 100 7 hours and 44 minutes of sleep I'm feeling great uh that's great here's the issue with with the issue with sleep is most people overestimate how much they're

2:05:20

actually sleeping yeah you think that you're you think you're getting you know your eight hours because you were in bed but it's like oh well maybe you didn't fall asleep for 40 minutes or you woke up at some point in the night so um I'm excited we we're gonna be announcing uh

2:05:35

some some big news on pmf or die then kickoff soon but uh I got um uh the players set up uh in the space yesterday and we're getting pods for them uh so they'll be sleeping sleeping like uh sleeping like babies uh which I'm excited foras um and uh yeah what else we got I mean let's just jump in we got

2:05:55

a post from Delan oh yeah we got some breaking news from Delian Delan broke the news on this uh Google Maps has updated uh that big body of water south of Louisiana uh it's now called the Gulf of America and honestly I've honestly forgotten what it was called before I I

2:06:13

I don't remember it as anything but the Gulf of America I've been calling Gulf of Texas I guess but now we've expanded it to the Gulf of America but I'm very happy to see it uh it's very cool that Google hopped on the train they didn't fight it they said look if it's going to

2:06:27

be the Gulf of America that's what the people want it's the Gulf of America uh little bit of a mouthful I don't know how long it'll stick around I wonder if this is going to be one of those things that goes back and forth we you know Democrat wins in 2028 and boom it's back

2:06:40

to something else it's funny because it it seems like a political issue but it should we should all be United around it it's like hey this is massive body of like I didn't know I didn't know that the US had the authority to write executive orders to get you know bodies of water renamed but uh it's it's a

2:07:00

pretty you know one if Mexico tries to make some you know International effort to rename it the Gulf of Mexico yeah uh I think Trump would basically say like 50% tariffs on all Goods coming in from Mexico until you till you you know just accept the Gulf of America gva uh for

2:07:20

those of us that that say you know frequently uh but I me I think this is the start of something great I I I I think we got to take this renaming much further uh New England Patriots we're dropping the new it's just the England Patriots England you're old England now you're not you're not just England your

2:07:38

old England or we have England now yeah I don't want that I don't want that also Greenland Iceland it's always been confusing Greenland's the icy one Iceland's the green one let's flip those names around let's switch it I want I want to rename those let's go around all

2:07:54

just clean up the whole taxonomy any any weird names out there you're on notice if your country name doesn't make sense we're renaming you if your body of water doesn't make sense we're going to rename you it's gonna happen yeah we got the keys to the kingdom here uh Dean's gonna

2:08:08

make it happen over at Google and uh the Google Maps you better take some screenshots now because it's gonna look completely different in a couple months anyway let's move on to Kyle over at wander we got a post from him his pin post a banger from 2019 uh just trying

2:08:23

to give you some more color on who this guy is Kyle he runs wander company we partnered with talked about them on the show before they have wonderful rental homes beautiful rental homes you got to go scroll the feed for wander and see what's available it's really amazing

2:08:37

some of the greatest homes people are saying it's fantastic homes folks they're saying it's fantastic uh and so he says underappreciated phenomenon working at a high growth margin focused startup is a real life MBA where you get paid six figures plus equity to learn how to build a bus instead of paying six

2:08:55

figures to go into debt and learning how to do how to build a theoretical one absolute Banger 5K likes I can see why he got so much love on this post and that really just uh uh gives you a little insight into how they're building this business they are high growth but

2:09:12

they're also uh margin focused every dollar matters in this business because when you pay you know couple hundred bucks couple thousand bucks to rent a wander uh they have to pass a lot of that cost on to the person the renter right they only take a fee they're a

2:09:26

Marketplace remember and they don't own a lot of their inventory or I I think very much of any of their inventory at this point in the future uh it will be a Marketplace business and so um you know he's obviously learned as they've been assembling the plane as they're flying

2:09:42

it and uh you know gotten the real life MBA and it shows because the business is ripping well said well said well said well let's move on to some more geopolitics geography news we never talk about politics but Germany is in shambles again uh EU Regulators think

2:10:01

it's too dangerous to Simply break a bottle across the bow of a new ship instead they insist on the use of this contraption this is why the European Union is failing this is Economist economy Minister habc flailing and uh we can't show the video we're still working on it but uh the guy is absolutely

2:10:22

hammering this this champagne bottle I guess uh across the bow of this ship with this very awkward Contraption and uh Joe Londale says sad metaphor for overregulation Europe in 2025 uh 5K Banger we love to see it very funny very funny very odd I don't know why they're using this apologies

2:10:42

apologies follow up too from another angle and he goes uh you switch the screen Ben so I can't see it he says he says he eventually just the old way and and it works a metaphor there there I love it yeah so uh Germany we put you on notice weeks ago when we talked about

2:11:00

your your crumbling economy we told you you got to stop reading out all of the documents during a financing close that's unacceptable that's unamerican Germany is a very unamerican country and you're on notice so start doing deals start doing deals the oldfashioned way

2:11:16

on a napkin we've been mess napkins yeah huge napkin with the next cell sheet printed on it that's the wayal uh you can map that a full DCF multiple sheets but it's got to be done on a napkin and closed over a text message uh let's move on to John Arnold with a fantastic story about Enron the

2:11:37

real Enron not these Enron imposters who are selling scam cryptocurrency uh but the old Enron energy Traders from the Texas based company that went bankrupt in around the turn of the Millennium he says I can confirm this story from B burn Hobart uh as head Trader for at Enron when it

2:11:59

failed when when it filed for bankruptcy I received many calls from firms that were recruiting I was busy trying to close out the trading book and wanted to take some time to decide my future so it didn't take any meetings but Citadel was by far the most aggressive other

2:12:11

companies set up few interviews with Enron Senior People Citadel interviewed seemingly everyone in the trading operation all functions at all levels citadel's team called me twice but I declined to meet it wasn't it was apparent to me that their intent was to reverse engineer the business and I

2:12:26

wasn't going to help them they knew that people looking for a job particularly if they didn't have a fiduciary responsibility to a current employer would be very free with info interview everyone and you get a 360 perspective of the industry how the business makes

2:12:38

money its Competitive Edge who the best employees are Etc Citadel probably interviewed several hundred Enron employees in the end they maybe hired five much more importantly they built the framework for how to enter the energy business which as Ken notes has been an enormous success I eventually

2:12:54

did talk with Citadel on their third call to me they asked if I would talk with Ken directly I was at the airport heading to Aspen for a quick industry event legendary um I didn't know Ken personally but had great respect for what he' built so I told this rep he

2:13:08

could call me when I got back to Houston the following week she said great but called back a few minutes later with a question if Ken flew to Aspen to meet me in person the next day would I out of respect I said of course the next day I had a great meeting with him and later

2:13:20

that week he offered me a job as head gas Trader I wanted to fully run an operation and thought there was more upside if I could have my own fund so I declined I ended up building my own firm starting with Traders and hiring deep fundamentals expertise uh Citadel started with the

2:13:35

research as is their DNA and built up a trading operation around it both models worked fabulously well I came away from the experience with an even deeper respect for both Ken and Citadel and remain friends with him to this day I started with a niche gas Trading buil a niche fund and burnt out after 17 years

2:13:54

Ken started with a niche convert ARB and built one of the most successful Financial firms ever and has never tired uh and and the quote image here is uh yeah Jordy what you got no I mean just amazing amazing story that that gives uh insight into just how Savage a firm like

2:14:13

Citadel is you don't get you don't get to to be that impactful and that large by simp simp L being a good investor it's or or being you know smart or making you know some great trades um it there's a level of professionalism and just execution in that industry where inventure Capital

2:14:35

you can kind of sit on your hands and and if you're at a good firm you'll meet most of the best Founders and if you do one good deal every couple years you can make a great career out of that and that's just like not how it works in in the hedge fund world you will get get

2:14:51

absolutely lapped by a a firm that uh you know many of these firms are playing PVP and they will send an army out you know in a situation situation like Enron and just use that as an opportunity to launch a new business line and basically just completely mine um mine Enron for

2:15:11

all of their Alpha in the sort of basically the dying days and and the sort of um you know during the funeral basically um so absolutely abs absolutely Savage and I'm glad that story had you know a happy ending and that it sounds like he you know was able to do well uh independently and um yeah

2:15:30

it's it's cool to see yeah couple couple takeaways for me I mean first is that like a lot of people know Enron just as a fraud and they think about it like a Theos fraud where there was never really a product that worked and that's just not true Enron had multiple business

2:15:46

lines that were doing phenomenally their gas trading business energy Trading a lot of that was going well they just cooked the books and had this accounting Scandal and were doing this crazy marketto Market thing and there's like all this uh crazy accounting Cycles

2:16:00

we'll have to do a whole Deep dive on Enron but um there there were some super talented people there that went on to do great things in other financial institutions and Ken clearly uh was able to extract the signal from the noise and understand that certain pieces of the

2:16:13

business you wouldn't want to touch with a 10- foot poll probably the accounting department but there were plenty of part pieces of the business that were running finan like like super tight ships and creating a ton of financial Alpha and going and getting that Alpha and those

2:16:26

Secrets was incredibly valuable a lot of these firms they trade on some secret strategy some insight some flow nothing illegal just a different pattern of pricing a a commodity or stock maybe they have a different strategy maybe it's highly quantitative maybe it's highly qualitative maybe they're doing a

2:16:45

ton of research there's hedge funds that are buying satellite data for example to understand oh if there's this many WM straty that's there's million are and those are hidden within firms and if you can get the guy who knows that secret when his firm's collapsing you're just

2:17:04

going to be able to take all that Alpha you got yeah the the the I always love the example of like using satellite data and like developing your own uh data sources to better better price uh bets and and that's the kind of thing you just don't uh BCS never do that like yeah General

2:17:25

there would be more stories about them being like yeah I went to uh the competit I sat outside the competitor's office or I paid somebody to sat sit outside the competitor's office and and realized that you know XYZ company had a very flexible remote policy and so I

2:17:43

decided to go all in on you know their competitor who was like in person you know maybe they're they're looking at some of that same information but it's not as much of a it's more of like a positive sum game and there's more risk you know not not necessarily more risk

2:18:00

but there's more just sort of luck and patience required that um there's not maybe the same information Arbitrage or it's just not as serious of an industry yeah when I worked at Citadel I remember this hilarious story where uh you know the uh the weather reporter on the local

2:18:18

news they always say let's go to the Doppler 5000 we got Doppler radar system we're going to tell you oh there's a cold front coming in here it's going to rain on Tuesday that type of stuff and one of the one of the weather Traders who's essentially trying to determine

2:18:31

how much rainfall there's going to be and that will affect crop yields and then crop prices so you can trade the Commodities based on the weather report is like yeah their their weather system their Doppler radar that's like a Honda Civic we have a Ferrari here and they

2:18:44

could predict the weather much better than the local news and you think about the weather report as like the most authoritative Source because it is is just a random consumer of weather news but the hedge funds have it way more dialed way more dialed and there's a

2:18:58

million little micro areas where they figure out one market Edge and then exploit the the you know that 1% margin all the way up to the full Market size this is the original story of Ken Griffin I mean he found that convertible debt was was there was this massive Arbitrage that was available he

2:19:13

completely mined it but then completely capped out on the size of the market because uh he basically brought convertible debt out he he arbitraged all the value out so was correctly priced he had to scale up into other strategies and that's where the Quant side came from that's where the global

2:19:27

macro side came from and he eventually built a very insane huge firm and then that doesn't even take into account cial Securities with the market maker and is such a bigger company now and at one point he was doing an investment bank and was thinking about going public it's

2:19:39

a crazy story um but anyway um fascinating story and a good lesson there that even in chaos uh go get the good people because uh not everyone is a disaster when the ship is sinking yeah I wonder if anybody did that with when when bolt was basically imploding you know I'm sure I'm sure they were

2:19:57

getting um I think stripe did actually I stripe went and some people out but but not as aggressive as like going and camping out outside you know the office basically yeah so well it's different because the the the thing with like I'm sure bolt had some great Engineers you

2:20:15

put those people to work on Stripes Core Business they're going to drive some value it's very different when there's like one key Insight at this hedge fund that's delivering you know a billion dollars of profit if it's run effectively or hundred million a profit or something like that and it really

2:20:30

goes to this uh this idea Ben Thompson was writing about in his uh I think his Monday piece about how open AI chat GPT deep research is a fantastic product but it is fundamentally flawed in some ways in that it's it only has access to the internet and so if you run a report from

2:20:51

Deep research on an industry where there are secrets there are firms that no one knows about because maybe there's a big player in uh the or in the industry that barely even has a website but they're actually really important and you know them by reputation if you actually

2:21:07

operate in that industry but there's just nothing about them on online deep research completely miss it this was uh an example there around industry Secrets uh it's not even Secrets it's just like operating know how when when the whole Creator economy boom was happening in

2:21:24

sort of 2020 2021 I had been working with creators through branded native my first company and and literally paying millions of dollars to creators and so I would get pitched these ideas and I'm like yeah that's a good idea and it totally makes sense if you've never worked with

2:21:41

creators Y and and and so I I didn't end up investing in any of those companies because I just knew fundamentally that they weren't going to they just weren't going to work and so you have this this happens Tech the the the good thing about tech and a lot of

2:21:55

great companies come out of this is you have people that are talented and smart but without industry experience will come into a new industry and you know basically completely change it upend it disrupt it um by just having a fresh point of view and and and thinking what

2:22:12

if we just like did you know did this from first principles or whatever whatever their approach is and for as many like success stories as there are there's a bunch of you know lowprofile failures that happens when you know people that you know apply that sort of startup mentality like I'm gonna come

2:22:30

into this industry with no experience and and disrupted and in the situation with Ken he was like I'm gonna come in and and take over this Market or compete in this market but I'm going to do that by downloading as like hundreds thousands in this case thousands of

2:22:45

hours of interviews where they're just grilling people on the exactly what they did How do they in where you know what what aspects of the business were really making money who was who were the top performers and then just drilling them you know grilling them even more so um

2:23:01

anyways lot a lot of learnings from that yeah fantastic story we'll have to do Deep dive on Ken Citadel and Enron and so many more things so stay tuned I'm sure there'll be tons more content uh we will probably we get some travel tomorrow some board meetings tomorrow so

2:23:17

we might be on later we might skip but uh we will see you guys later this week and please leave us a festar review Apple podcast Spotify please leave it on both it really helps the show and when you do leave an ad for your company a company you like something funny just write a bunch of stuff in the comment

2:23:38

with your festar review we'll read it live on the show we got one review I'll just read right now uh from c518 3 on Apple podcast he says uh rare combination of funny and educational TB combines acquired caliber research with a solid amount of humor and self-awareness which you don't get many

2:23:56

places it's poised to become red scares for guys who want to show you their deck couldn't have said it better couldn't have said it better the exact idea I had yeah that that actually yeah you actually nailed it that was that was literally said that yeah and I didn't

2:24:11

even know what redcare was at the time and you were like look at it this is what we're doing uh so format wise uh the only the only critique of uh the only critique of uh that review is there's no ad in it so I'm kind of feel a little bit much like redcare they don't run ads and the business could be so much

2:24:31

better Anna and Dasha get it together you wouldn't need to launch a coin Dasha if you just ran some ads there you go there you go anyway thanks for watching we appreciate you guys stay safe out there we'll see you on the timeline have a great day have a great day bye bye for