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you're watching tvpn live from the Temple of Technology The Fortress of Finance that's right the capital of capital today is Friday February 28th and we got to say happy birthday to our vice president Ben he's back in the studio for
you're watching tvpn live from the Temple of Technology The Fortress of Finance that's right the capital of capital today is Friday February 28th and we got to say happy birthday to our vice president Ben he's back in the studio for
Ben they tried the enemies tried to take him down they could not do he's too powerful uh but we got a great show for you today we're covering GPT 4.5 we're going to answer the question what do you get when you spend 10 times as much money pre-training an llm uh there's
been a bunch of conversation on the timeline about this we're going to break it all down also Skype is shutting down I'm sure we'll have to do a little moment of silence for that tell some stories about our early Skype usage days uh give you a little background on the
company and how they wound up there uh and then the timeline has just been in turmoil so we're going to be spending a ton of time on the timeline to say the least yeah it's been spicy the least this uh this morning there's been drama
and there's been tons of fun posts as always so stay tuned we got a great show for you today Jordy how you feeling I am feeling good uh I'm I'm a little frustrated because Ben didn't tell us that it was his birthday until about 5
minutes ago and you know how people or you know they try to be nonchalant you know they wait till it's it's it's almost you know we got an hour till it's noon and he just drops oh yeah it's actually my birthday today yeah yeah cool cool you're so nonchalant no tell
me Tell he's uh Ben's going to mute me but no this goes out to all the nonchalant birthday boys out there tell us tell us it's your birthday a week a month before a week before a day before in the morning of and I want to know so
I can set up singing telegram Mari we were at breakfast with Ben earlier today I should have had the whole staff come out and sing him happy birthday done pancakes with candle exactly pancakes with candles but he robbed us of that opportunity anyway and
I will never forgive you for that Ben uh anyway Jordy would you like to hear a joke I love your jokes you love my jokes but these aren't my jokes you didn't write this joke I didn't write this joke this is what this is a joke written by a
model that cost $5 trillion actually uh we should get into the actual cost but for those that are maybe listening for the first time this is my thing this is John's eval yeah your cougan eval and we should we should actually you got to coin this we got to coin this uh so
kugan eval is where you take the new model and you say tell me a funny joke make sure it's actually funny joke like a standup set and not just a knock knock joke or something simple my favorite comedians are Shane Gillis Dave Chappelle Etc and so why don't you read
out the joke and uh buckle up I mean you're going to be in tears we should get some tissues because you're goingon to be laughing so hard uh so hey you ever noticed how technology makes us think we're way smarter than we actually
are like I realized this when my Wi-Fi went out the other day I immediately panicked because without Google I'm basic basically just an ape holding an iPhone seriously if you took me back to the Middle Ages and asked me how to build a simple pulley system I'd be like
uh you got YouTube here hey everybody AGI achieved AGI cheat hang it up AI everyone's out of a job it's incredible amazing of course that's not the goal of these models their job is to work in the mindes are you going it's so bad okay so
and it's not just the internet remember when we thought Alexa and Siri were going to make our lives easier now it's just me arguing with a speaker about whether I said play Kanye or order Pad Thai my credit card's maxed out but hey
my Spotify playlist is fire I like how it just throws in this completely random nonse yeah I don't get why is it maxed out cuz he's paying for like AI tools pad tie I don't know uh speaking of tech I think the weirdest part about AI isn't that it's smarter
than us it's that it's becoming more human we're programmed we programmed AI to mimic humans and now ai lies makes mistakes and blames other people we invented digital middle management congratulations Humanity we've automated incompetence wow a real knee slapper
right perfect I mean I did that was that that stolen from Shane Gillis or Dave Chappelle it might I think I think what we need to do is feed your lines back into the model and ask it to judge your delivery because it really might come
down to the delivery right setting it up you're setting it up to fail you don't want to believe that the model can be as funny as you are uh but uh anyways we're not we're not we don't have AGI yet we're not out of a job yet so stay tuned
but I mean that realistically that's not why like they're not even trying to make these models that funny uh it is eval I think it's a good eval I think that they should be able to do that at some point and it and and the humor eval is a way
of asking you know the model like can you do something that you haven't been trained on right yeah the the move 37 of of writing is a joke a novel joke in my mind the real Benchmark is a true knee slapper I think so I think so uh but
anyway uh we got a much more serious analysis from Andre karpathy uh he says GPT 4.5 and an interactive comparison today marks the release of GPT 4.5 by open AI I've been looking forward to this for 2 years ever since GPT 4 was released because this release offers a
qualitative measurement of the slope of improvement you get out of scaling pre-training compute this is something we've talked about I'm super scale pilled scaling is real but the question is if you scale the model up 10x do you
get a 10x Improvement do you get a 1x 2x Improvement get 10% do you get 100x like sometimes you know and he talks about the evolution here so each .5 in the version is roughly 10x pre-training compute now recall that gpt1 barely generates coherent text gpt2 was a
confused toy GPT 2.5 was skipped straight into gpt3 which was even more interesting than GPT 3.5 crossed the threshold where it was enough to actually ship as a product and sparked open ai's chat GPT moment and if you remember when GPT 3.5 was getting really
good there was this da Vinci model as GPT 3.500 2- D Vinci a great name of course Very memorable but that was the moment when people in the developer Community were toying with it and being like okay this thing is actually like passing the
touring test like it sounds like human and it is remarkable it's a remarkable uh Innovation uh and so GPT 4 in turn also felt better but I'll say that it definitely felt more subtle I remember being part of a hackathon trying to find
concrete prompts where gp4 outperformed 3.5 they definitely existed but clear and but clear and concrete slam dunk examples were difficult to find it's that everything was just a little bit better but in a diffuse way the word choice was a bit more creative
understanding of nuance in the prompt was improved analogies made a bit more sense the model was a little bit funnier World knowledge and understanding was improved at the edges of rare domains hallucinations were a bit less frequent The Vibes were just a bit better it felt
like the water that rises all boats where everything gets slightly improved by 20% so it is with that ex expectation that I went into testing GPT 4.5 which I had access to for a few days and which saw 10x more pre-training compute than
GPT 4 uh and I feel like once again I'm in the same hackathon two years ago everything is a little bit better and it's awesome but also not exactly in ways that are trivial to point to still it is incredibly interesting and exciting as another qualitative
measurement of a certain slope of capability that comes for free just from pre-training a bigger model keep in mind that g 4.5 was only trained with pre-training supervised fine-tuning and rhf so this is not yet a reasoning model
therefore this model release does not push forward model capability in cases where reasoning is critical like math and code in these cases training with RL reinforcement learning and gaining thinking is incredibly important and
works better even if it is on top of an older base model GPT 4ish capability or so the state-of-the-art here Remains the full 01 presumably open aai will now be looking to further train with reinforcement learning on top of GPT 4.5 model to allow it to think and push
model capability in these domains however we do we we do actually expect to see an improvement in tasks that are not reasoning heavy and I would say those tasks are more EQ as opposed to IQ so it's more it's more just better to chat with and actually have a
conversation with uh related and bottlenecked by World Knowledge creativity an analogy making General understanding humor Etc so these definitely bottlenecked by humor yes uh so these are the tasks that I was most interested during my vibe checks so
below I thought it would be fun to highlight five SL funny SL amusing prompts to test these capabilities and organize them into an interactive LM Arena light right here on X using a combination of images and poles in a thread sadly X does not allow you to
include both an image and a poll in a single post so I have to alternate posts that give the image and then so basically he put he left it up for eight hours this got a million views lots of people voted and he broke down the
results and interestingly he says okay so I didn't super expect the results of the GPT 4 versus GPT 4.5 poll from earlier today uh but GPT 4.5 outperformed gtt4 on only one of the five questions Wild G people prefer gp4 in four out of five questions awkward
and it's always odd I mean the splits are not huge 56% of people prefer GPT 4.5 in one question the margins were 10 20% it wasn't like it wasn't like 100% 90% of people thought it was one way or another still two 640 for every one
person that prefers you know GPT 45 in question three two people prefer gp4 that is pretty significant yeah and he says to be honest I found this a bit surprising as I personally found GPT 4.5 to responses to be better in all cases but maybe I'm just a high taste tester I
think that's probably true considering you built this Andre and you're like one of the greatest programmers of all time and so you probably have high taste and uh yeah uh but uh the thing to look for is that gbd4 more often says stuff has a
refine taste in another kind of model uh the thing to look for is that gbd4 more often says stuff that on the face of it looks fine and type checks as making sense but if you really think about it long or more care carefully you
will often more you will more often catch it saying things that are a bit of an odd thing to say or a little too formulaic a little too basic a little too cringey or a little too tropey slightly reassuring a number of people noted similar surprise in the replies I
noticed uh the few I noticed as an example uh for the roast 4.5 is punchier for the story 4.5 narrative jumped in had dialogue and hinted at a unique storyline uh B was a little bit more schematic um for the poem uh 4.5 is
obviously way better the rhyme scheme and meter of B are so unsophisticated a has to be 4.5 the voters have poor taste I like that so yeah either High taste testers are noticing the new and unique structure but the low taste ones are overwhelming the pole
all normies L don't can't if you can't tell the honestly if you can't tell the difference if you can't tell the difference between 4.5 and four like I don't even know if you should be allowed to be a member of society it's interesting you have to
imagine uh open AI is trying to continuously dominate The Narrative right it's sort of they're sort of uh ahead on Revenue but very you know well beyond but it's like a knockout drag out fight in terms of attention and what's what's atten so they had grock last week
or the was it over the it was Friday it started last week but then the app rolled out the voice mode out the re new CL model and open like there there's some value in being the last Model to drop right in in just terms of you know
sucking the air out of the room and I believe that this uh that this model will be the top of the stack in benchmarks and and open ey has always done this Cadence where they come out with the best and then a couple months later there's a whole flood of everyone
else catching up and all of a sudden you're beating them by like a few and then open AI comes back and is back on top and so if you average out like like open AI is not always on the top of the r rankings on every single Benchmark but
they probably have the most number of days on top because they're on top like you know for about half the year yeah and then towards the back half of the Year everyone else is kind of chipping away at their leads and different benchmarks and stuff but uh but it's fun
so he closes out and says so we'll wait for the larger there's also this feeling it's hard to know if it's accurate but there's a general feeling that I have and I'm sure others do that that that the other uh Foundation model companies
are are launching stuff uh as fast as they possibly can and and open AI is maybe sort of timing things more and that who knows you know I kind of disagree with that I mean I think that uh I mean the narrative is like anthropic has some insane voice model
that they haven't released for safety reasons and I think if anything all the grock push and stuff that's really pushing Cadence at open AI I'm not saying they're not feeling the pressure I'm just saying they seem to be they seem to be uh keep you know you
can imagine if they wanted to launch GPT 5 yeah you know could do they feel the urg they they felt clearly an urgency to come out with four five sure maybe they don't and they're feeling the pressure to get five out but there's not they're
sort of like trying to stay just perpetually slightly ahead Y and um focusing on quality whereas grock was just we have massive amount of compute we're just going to Brute Force spend launch as fast as possible iterate grock
was clearly not actually ready for production it didn't have the reinforcement learning that made it so you would just get these obscene answers that never should have been live right it clearly was more of even it was a almost like a beta version of the
product in many ways it was responding to stuff that was more of an alpha level product where that stuff should have been caught it's so funny to me that the nonprofit board at open AI was upset with Sam for launching Chachi PT the
very first version and they were like he's moving too fast he's too dangerous can you imagine the nonprofit board watching Elon launch grock 3 and they're just like no no no reinforcement learning no reinforcement learning it's like giving you gas like how to make a
bomb stuff it's generating intellectual property that's completely infringing like it has sexy mode they're just like what like actually like Sam would be much better BR Sam back yeah yeah actually we should have back Sam and and kept Elon
out of the turn out our biggest nonprofit backer was the most degenerate hilarious least safety pilled yeah is just accelerate accelerate accelerate totally totally the entire time yeah uh but yeah to elon's credit he doesn't he he he you know makes the
claim that that Sam is is disingenuous and and uh or whatever he's not saying that Sam is reckless exactly it's actually a very different critique yeah and I and I think I think it's good like I think that this shows that you know just scaling up uh you know um like
there was definitely a a drum beat from the AI Doomer community that that GPT 4.5 GPT 5 you scale up the pre-training by uh by 10x they were so scale pilled that they said when you scale up by 10x you're going to get a 10x more dangerous
model you're going to get 10x more risk and that does not feel like what's going on right now at all it feels like yeah these things are still like friendly and nice and they make mistakes and they're just simulating humans and humans are
default like kind of good but also sometimes midwit and sometimes they you know come up with good stuff and you know it's all about how you implement them and if somebody uses one of these models and creates a rapper that does something bad then yeah you're going to
get a bad outcome but the model it's self is not going to you know break out and have a mind of its own and destroy everything um so Andre finishes out by saying one really bad mistake that bugs me is in the GPT 4 uh 4 versus 4.5
conversation the one generated by 4.5 4.5 asks still buffering your responses like it's dialup internet this is really bad because it clearly borrows tropes from early days Computing huh interesting anyway uh let's go to some of the other takes Michael mcnano is is
this comment is interesting I this about it no the uh from Maine reaction there I don't know if we have the answer but it says is it possible the 40 update last month was already a distillation of 4.5 I think the results would be less
concerning if so huh um oh yeah because maybe maybe we got some of that already baked in to such a small you know difference yeah yeah yeah it's hard to tell because like if you're just trying to this goes back to people right now people right now are are almost
comforted in the fact that you're getting chapped of an llm right sort of like version one two Etc and they all have different naming schemes but over time you can imagine they're just perpetually updating but that's uncomfortable to be yeah you know humans
get smarter Dumber over time right depending on their environment and their view Viewpoint of the world and knowledge and all that stuff but it's not necessarily perpetually updating throughout even a day where you wake up
and your your employee in the morning is brilliant and then there're slightly you know Dumber later in the day nerfed um I mean the the the the Vibes around the Cadence going from chat GPT which launched on 3.5 to gp4 everyone saw chat
GPT and 3.5 and we were like we crossed the Turing test AI is here this is going to be massively disruptive like there's going to be no more marketing jobs because it can just write copy like like there's going to be mass unemployment like people even even Beyond like the
doomers who were saying this is going to kill us a lot of people were like this is going to fundamentally change the world very rapidly because it's happening at internet scale it's not it's not an Adams Company it's a bits company and so this can be rolled out
into every single company and layoffs can happen now right and so people were people were worried and then three months later it was like oh we did we did we went from three to four which feels like a 25% 33% increase it just
felt like oh okay if we're continuing at this pace like the acceleration is real and and but then over the last two years we've just been incrementing on fours 4 41 4 five 40 people were starting to call that out but Sam if you're out
there in the markets trying to raise 40 on 350 yeah 350 billion or whatever the price is with the Moss around you want there to be this sense of hey there's this sort of impending super intelligence and you know every if you're needing to raise that kind of
capital you need Super intelligence to perpetually be right around the corner even even Elon was posted I think earlier this week we are on the it's the eve of super intelligence you know whatever everybody sort of um if if the models were to stagnate completely
yep there there would be a massive pullback in in sort of new investment right because you see the difference between four and four five that's not going to get the incremental uh whatever 20 billion of investment it's such an interesting
dance because if you go too hard and you say super intelligence is right around the corner well then The Regulators is going to come out people are going to be Pro protesting in the streets yeah the doomers are going to have a bigger
argument saying look you can just look at what Sam is saying he's going to say it's the most powerful God in a box like we have to control this we have to regulate it but if you don't say hey super intelligence is coming well then we're why should we invest a trillion
dollars in the capex like we we we in order to make these types of Investments it's got to be the real deal and so finding that balance is really really tricky in my opinion I think SAA has the right balance which is that uh AI in its
current state and and for the near future is this sort of almost like a co-pilot it's a thought partner uh it's not uh it doesn't yet have you know total agency right it's not actually replacing an employee but it's it's being a a work sort of partner for you
yeah and that still justifies a lot of capex but I don't think it justifies an incremental $30 billion investment in open AI at the moment in time interesting um I think people massively underestimate how much work there is point of view one point of view I I
forget who was talking about this uh earlier this week is that there's so much value to be created and captured from the current technology set it would take a even if we had even if all model development paused yep and we had a
10year shot we just Implement to implement the technology we could still there would still be numerous numerous you know and that's what happened with the doom boom like the internet rolled out uh dial up was pretty terrible pretty limited but even in like I don't
know 200 what 2004 2005 people were starting to get High-Speed Internet DSL uh cable stuff that you where you could play video games online you could stream videos and then there was a question about like okay well what if your
internet gets 10 times faster well like you're not going to watch 10 movies at the same time like and yes you could stream 8K video instead of 1080p but most people just are fine with 1080p still entertaining and you know exactly
and so and so like like we accelerated the speed and con and number of connections to the internet and then it took us 20 years to actually reap that benefit even though the tech kept getting better and the internet has gotten faster and now you can download
an 8K video very quickly if you have the right line but most people are just like yeah I just need you know a couple gig download and I'm fine yeah um it is interesting um well let's move on to some reactions we got Michael mcnano he
says technology is not emote never has been there are so many examples of incumbents copying startups Technologies and leveraging their distribution to crush competition and AI coding models are quickly making technology even less defensible with coding models like
Claude assistance like cursor and no code tools like lovable and bolt it's becoming stupidly easy to copy existing products and apps with virtually no effort turns out the stuff that actually matters is what always mattered strong
products real Network effects ruthless distribution and brands people actually care about the winners will double down on those things while everyone else wonders why their perfect Tech keeps getting cloned into irrelevance so the most uh most relevant
uh sort of Point related to all of this is that uh you know we've talked about this on the show before this idea of Easy Come Easy Go yep and so the same the same re you know the the the the the the issue with cursor is if you can go
to $100 million building a product that that was an open you know sort of you open source they it was like vs code Fork um they forked it uh get to $100 million in Revenue lovable and bolt come out you know lovable goes from0 to 17 million in three months with a small
team uh but the same technology that enables them to do that also enables other people to come and compete away their market right so winds surf AI which is a cursor competitor they are have gotten to a $40 million run rate in a very short amount of time and so
historically if you look at these businesses that have the sort of explosive growth sometimes there's sort of specific market dynamics that allowed that to happen or allowed a specific team to do that or relationships that enabled it but often times If a pure
play software company explodes in growth yep uh and there's no network effects which which Michael references here uh or sort of durable distribution Advantage right um that that that that value creation can erode very quickly um
and so what I think we're all interested to see how this plays out is all these companies that have this explosive Revenue growth one it's great because when people say oh there's this big bubble you can point and say well but but real customers are handing
over dollars to pay for these products and uh uh you know cursor would have gone public you know a year ago if it was 2021 right um but what what I think we're all waiting to see play out is uh does this Revenue um you know ultimately
get competed Away by other teams that you know there's teams that will use cursor to compete with cursor right which is uh you know so we'll see uh I think we're generally you know bullish on these companies uh in the in the short to medium term but unclear how
they sort of maintain uh and and continue to create value when people just say you know there will be a version of cursor that allows somebody to Vibe code a free version of cursor right how far like I'm actually surprised we haven't seen somebody say I
use cursor to rebuild cursor and that would definitely go viral we've seen some people do additional forks and and there's been some push back I think y company yeah uh and so yeah there has been push back my uh I wonder uh are you
a bull or bear on uh docus sign docus sign's like theint essential you should be able to rebuild that with cursor right it's just forms and filings but maybe those 10 20 100,000 employees they have are just the best sales guys
they're embedded in every organization they're calling you on your birthday they're celebrating you they're pick kids and they tell you they tell they tell you their birthday that morning they wake up and say hey it's your it's your favorite sales rep so yeah you
clone doc you sign for you know $5 in cursor credits or whatever you have Devon on the case for the weekend and you got yourself a docy sign clone how are you Distributing it you need 10,000 sales guys maybe maybe uh you know I I
just I don't think we know I one you know the bigger threat to docy sign is again uh so Google workspace I think just rolled out a doc document signing product we already pay for Google workspace it's one click away it's not going to be as good but for sure
Google's like calendar booking link throttled the growth of of cley other things like that and so I think the bigger uh threat to some of these sort of commodity products the thing is is I mean doc document signing has the vi viral sort of effect where sign up and
sign up but that also enabl yeah distribution is baked in yep um but I mean we've said this maybe five times on the show before how has docy sign not said hey our products actually pretty simple we should be able to maintain it
with a team of 100 Engineers we actually don't need a thousand let's sort of give back uh let's free these people to go work on other more interesting products set them free set them free uh instead of slaving way in the in the docu sign
mind mind yeah uh and just let them go work on more interesting things and then you know give that give that cash back to shareholders or invested in new products it it just seems like a very uninspiring company uh but um but we'll see yeah uh anyway uh Scott woo CEO of
cognition chimed in with his take on GP G PT 4.5 I thought this was an interesting uh data point because he's obviously using these models very deeply he says GPT 4.5 has been awesome to work with of course they build this into
Devon you can run Devon on a number of different uh llms and he says our agentic coding benchmarks uh on our agentic coding Benchmark it it already shows massive improvements over 01 and 40 excited to see the models continued trajectory on code one interesting data
point although GPT 4.5 and Claude 3.7 Sonet score similarly on our overall Benchmark we find that GPT 4.5 spikes more heavily on tasks invol involving architecture and cross- system interactions whereas Claude 3.7 Sonet spikes more on Raw coding and code
editing uh as AI takes on increasingly complex tasks we believe that multimodal agents multimodel agents that incorporate each model's unique strengths will perform best just like in your brain you have different sections of your brain to do different tasks on a
team you have that developer who's really good at architecture and you have that other guy who's just Beast writing code all night long and so uh I might be off here but with Devon and cognition position where as the underlying models
get dramatically better their product gets you know better and more valuable that's a great position to be in y given the complexity of building out the sort of of Team like uh product you know like a individual contributor sque product
that's integrated into a team y will cognition be better positioned than a cursor where you know as uh how long until you can get Devon to build a version of cursor and just say hey Fork you know we might be 10 years away from that but it's it's not even that I mean
like the the mental model I have for for cursor versus Devon is like completely separate things one is like this totally and with Devon I I almost see it as like you could see them like a like a McKenzie almost where it's like there's
a large company and they're like hey we have this app and it runs on iOS and we need to get it to run on Android and so you just need to take that code and transfer it and it's just going to be a lot of work and it's got to be done
perfectly and so we just want you we're going to give you $10 million to do it because it would cost 50 million to do it with you know some human Outsourcing team and and cognition just goes and cranks and like gets it done and then eventually you're doing that all over
your organization and it's much more for like these these like corporate projects than like you know uh yeah or backlogs Etc yeah yeah exactly I I've seen a lot of of case studies like that but it's very it's very different and then Al
also yeah it's it's very um it's very like it's a B2B product like they are in Open Access you can just go install it um but it is expensive and it's a very different uh sales motion I think yeah anyway uh let's go to uh chubby hilarious name uh with the most serious
post talking about open AI Mark Chen uh who I actually got dinner with a couple months ago uh great guy uh Mark Chen says we found a new paradigm through reasoning which we're also scaling that's right because GPT 4.5 was clearly
proven that pre-training has definitely reached a wall GPT 5 must be a banger last chance says chubby um and uh so a lot of people throwing a little bit of a little question on you know hey everyone is going to be shifting to oh no no no
we don't we don't focus on just bigger bigger models we focus on reasoning um because like that's the next Paradigm but I think that's fine I don't care where you're optimizing your AI system I don't care if it's all the games are in pre-training all the gains are in
posttraining all the gains are in rhf when rhf came out people were like oh so like how like to scale and improve a model you just need to have a bunch of people like writing answers like this is an AI and it's like I don't care I just
want just give me I just good results I just want make me laugh John just wants to laugh but also also do the research reports and make them great you know and and and and you know throw scale all of these things and I think that there's
probably going to be these cycles of memes online where people are like oh it it like scale doesn't matter at all it's all about reasoning oh F doesn't matter it's all about post training or pre pre-training or you know fine tuning or
custom stuff I do think it's fair for people like chubby to feel like they have the right to try to hold a open Ai and these other model companies who have made these sort of massive audacious claims and they've put out a lot of Communications on uh on this topic to
try to say yeah last last chance you know GPT 5's got to be a banger they're basically holding um funny to be in and be like hey $300 billion company last chance who are you to decide whether or not this happens but yeah there there's
this balance between the the are it's it's more so uh chubby is probably a customer of open AI they're allowed to have strong opinions they're marketed something to uh but at the same time open AI it's squarely within their right
to try to massage the narrative and say well actually this is the thing so I think both both sides have have clear let's go to another hater do you know Gary Marcus I do not Gary Marcus is a fascinating figure in AI he wrote a piece called Deep learning is hitting a
wall he he uh he was at uh he sold an AI company to Uber I believe and his whole thing is uh what is it symbolic symbol manipulation so he believes that like you cannot just throw a big pile of data at add a basic algorithm like the gpt3
algorithm and then just do predict next word predict next word predict next word and then get God or get the genius human he maintains that like humans represent information in their brains in different ways than that it's not just predict the
next word every two seconds right um and so we special and unique snowflakes he's he's somewhat right because they're are clearly like the reasoning and and being able to search the web and use Python and all these different tools were
building out the machine brain in multiple different sectors uh but he's also been like massively wrong for a long time because he was saying like deep learning will never scale and it's like I'm talking to Michael B of models exactly exactly and so but you only got
to you know if he's right right now he's going to be pretty V A lot of people have been like this guy is a joke like why is he be why is he testifying in front of Congress at the same time you know he I think he does have a PhD he is like he's like a serious researcher uh
he's just taken a very contrarian stance but so has uh n Chomsky n Chomsky was a linguist at MIT and and and had yeah and had a lot of a lot of theories on the way language is constructed and and saw and argued that uh you could not rep
like you could not represent a human through like a sloppy algorithm there needed to be some sort of more fundamental truth and so uh symbol manipulation basically says like you know we need to have uh you know a concept baked into the model of like
what a table is how it interacts with a chair all these different things and so uh it's been it's been controversial because there haven't been as many gains in the Sy symbol manipulation world uh but Gary's been uh you know happily
taking a uh a Victory lap I guess over uh GPT 4.5 not just purely proving that pre-training scale is all you need uh but let's find out so chubby again says judging by the mood GPT 4.5 is the first big failure for open AI too expensive
too little Improvement and often in I to GPT 40 even in comparison in Creative answers in community tests like what Andre karpathy posted and it's interesting because uh too expensive don't care at all they're going to distill this model and get it a thousand
times cheaper in two seconds uh too little Improvement that is interesting but again you have to run the the the capex to profit calculation and the GPT 4 training run I think was like under 100 million or something which is still
like a lot of money at the time but $100 million and they're making billions and so you if you train a100 million run and then generate billions you generate billions a year forever potentially if you can Beck not necessarily super high
margin not yet but once you bake it down onto silic onto a chip or something I'm just yeah yeah like true like they're not profitable right now but uh just the idea of any of these AI companies throwing a billion at or 10 billion when
you think about how much usage there's going to be it's not as crazy as you think and so the question especially when you consider there's models that no one uses that have raised $100 million and have spent most of it and with nothing to show for it yeah and I mean
open AI looks like they're allocating fairly efficiently and and and you can say the same thing about like amazon.com they built out huge data centers 10 times as they 10x their capex like 10 times right uh did did the experience of
amazon.com get that much better no but they printed money whole time because they have a great product on top of it and so like you don't necessarily need a 10x Improvement in the core product if the business is working and it's generating cash you can underwrite those
capex expenses all day and and that's what I think a lot of people that's why a lot of people are jumping into this because Elon is saying look I'm gonna spend billions of dollars on grock and xai but then I'm G to vend that into Tesla I was thinking about this like
having a deeply integrated grock and xai integration in Tesla is going to be amazing there's so many times when I'm when I'm driving into the office and I'm talking to chat about hey here are some topics that I want to talk about can you
do deep research on this one just using the voice mode and if that was integrated into a Tesla so it's basically self-driving itself and you're just having a conversation with grock okay today I gotta I gotta talk to Jordy about the show I gotta pay this bill I
gotta schedule a meeting and it's just catalog yeah yeah just cataloging all of this oh okay you did Legs yesterday hit chest here's what you should do Con in the car l in the car you know I spend enough time on the road you know these
days because of all the traffic that if I get in the car for 90 minutes and I'm driving I'm going to have 20 thoughts that I want to be able to execute on in that moment but I end up having to like wait until I'm at a stoplight write it
down keep going and then I've built this huge backlog of tasks where if you can have this sort of omnipresent AI that that says hey grock can you uh you know call uh you know uh the cable company I want to increase my uh I want to get fiber I have like you know I want to
upgrade my plant it's like that's an item you're checking off the to-do list exactly and I'm sure your car all your cars have some sort of voice recognition but it's awful right it's like call John and it's like oh did you want me to you
know call you a tow truck or whatever like always gets it wrong no one ever uses it imagine if it's if it's you know truly Frontier best in class and so the question is not does spending a billion dollars on capex to train a frontier model get you something that's thousand
times the competition it's just does it get you a valuable asset that then you can vend in and sell all over the place and so can Elon sell grock to ex premium members and make the money back there can he sell it into Tesla can he sell it
into other things like can he hook it up to neuralink like can he make money from the money he spent that's that's the only thing that matters at the end of the day this capitalism right uh anyway so um you know people are pouring cold
water all over this is a tough timing too so yeah they're pouring cold water on it calling it the first big failure of open AI meanwhile por Sam had his first kid like last week it's rough uh this guy and so Gary Marcus says big surprise only to you and
the many other open AI fans who refus to listen to me when I patiently and endlessly explained that this would be exactly what would happen for the rest of us this was all but inevitable and so he's taking a Victory lap but it's but
it's odd because it's like okay like go do the thing then Gary like go go do your approach like do the the symbol manipulation and beat them start a podcast he might he might um but yeah I mean it's easy to be a pessimist and say that approach isn't working like the
like like the the Starship isn't going to work to get us to Mars I don't care build something better that will get us to Mars then if you think the slingshot we were talking about toan about this like if he wants to get there with a
space plane he'll do that like I don't know I don't know I mean that's an obvious critique of but at the same time if you are highly uh researched on a specific topic you are an expert on that topic in many ways but Gary You could argue he's an exited AI founder he's
been talking about this for years yep he's perfectly entitled to have an opinion on the world changing technology that everybody else and and it's fine if he take I I think he can take a Victory lap we're not we're not he's not trying
to say that I can do it well he has been for years for years he was saying he was saying my Approach is better than deep learning okay so he that's why because he he hasn't been advancing the ball on his thing it would be one thing if it
was like they did this and then SLE manipulation his approach outperforms and it's like oh my God he was right like we should have we were going going down the wrong path Gary was right instead he's just saying like my their thing sucks but my thing really sucks
yeah yeah which is kind of like my read on it but I don't know still you know he can't take a he can say hey to say I'm I'm right and open AI won't respond to this but if they they could or would or wanted to they would say cool like let's see your benchmarks
exactly exactly he wouldn't sounds like he wouldn't have a good answer yeah well now he would say oh I'm I'm out of the game I'm not I'm I'm working on policy and stuff I'm not I'm not really building I'm not trying to compete in
that but uh it is it is a little frustrating cuz you know like the deepsea team over they're making they're saying hey we have a slightly different approach and we're getting we're getting better performance with less investment
I mean you know the the the actual Investments debatable but there were clearly some optimizations there where they where they got close to the frontier with obviously less than what it cost to train 4.5 and so uh I I I'm much more I'm much more sympathetic to
like a deep seek stand saying like hey the the best investment in uh in this technology in the next wave here is on the optimization side not on the scale side I I I'm I'm receptive to that but if you're just saying like this isn't
working but also like my thing is like okay anyway I was right but I also failed uh anyway let's move on let's close out with another attempted humor uh Dan shipper says gpg 4.5 is actually so effing funny be me be Dan shipper wake up at 5:00 a.m. journal for 45
minutes about the dream I had last night dream was in second person probably inspired by a obscure Neuroscience paper I read last Tuesday Brew Coffee using beans handpicked by monks on a remote Guatemalan Mountain sit down to write
today's newsletter accidentally outline four new business ideas resist resist the temptation to launch them all by noon meditate feel mind literally expanding into previously undiscovered cognitive Dimensions tweet and insight for my meditation session immediately
gain 200 new subscribers open laptop to write an article on models realize the mental the ultimate mental model was within me all along it's only 9:00 a.m. uh why aren't you laughing I mean what's wrong I mean do you not understand the humor did go over
your head Jordy yeah it flew over my head it's too sophisticated you don't if you can't tell the difference between. and four you're you're not really like high IQ yeah I mean Claude actually got fed this and laughed like it actually played a laugh track that
was its only response so the models are making each other laugh yeah they're not making us laugh just yet I do think there's something cool about this I I think he had personalization model is actually sophisticated enough that it
knows will laugh harder if it just delivers a Terri like a terrible joke and just botches it and we go haha yeah you dumb model it it's uh yeah it's being sneaky behind the scenes it's hiding its power level yeah exactly secretly it could be the best it could
put every comedian out of business it's like playing basketball with a kid EX EXA oh no I I I dropped the ball I guess you scored yeah that's what it's doing clearly um anyway I'm glad he thought it was funny uh I uh what is interesting
here is that this was personalized so he fed it in his his timeline or some more context around him it doesn't and so it so it it clearly made jokes that were highly personalized to to him and I think that that is cool and I think
there is something there and we've talked about this with the grock stuff uh it creates a more unique uh interaction unique product especially when uh I think the most relevant again won't be humor it'll be research where it will know hey Jordy you're uh you're
an expert in Angel Investing and ads and Entrepreneurship so I don't need to explain to you what a safe is but you're not an expert in mining you know Rare Minerals so I'm going to break down yeah yeah I'm going to explain to you in granular
detail okay lithium ion where does that come from and I'm going to explain it to you like I'm five and then I'm going to go deeper and I'm going to work with you to understand where your knowledge is and get you up to speed really quickly I
think that's going to be amazing um anyway well one of the companies that I love that's implementing AI better than anybody else is of course ramp go ramp.com time money both easy to use corporate cards bill payments accounting and a whole lot more all in one place
and it is I I mean obviously I'm joking around but it is true uh ramp is a perfect place to to implement AI they uh when you take a picture of the receipt they get scanned of course an llm processes that and it's gotten so much better and it's the exact type of
organization that you want to be with where they're I mean the cognition guys work there like they have they have an insane team that can go and look at whatever the Frontier Model is swap it in in two seconds they move very fast
they move very quickly and so all the product just keeps compounding in a way that's you know great from from an in you know from a company that you would potentially join there are companies out there that are just sort of boilerplate sass that maybe
have a lot of Revenue today like docus sign but presumably over time we'll we'll be more like cable where some people keep paying but you know they get sort of replaced these sort of businesses that are more um you know this is for informational purposes only
obviously but the businesses that are more uh in these sort of regulated spaces that require payment rails and banking licenses and stuff like that are super well positioned to implement AI for customers but um you know not not in the same way you you can't just you know
uh use Cur the the version of cursor in 10 years and generate ramp because banks are going to say I'm sorry you know we're not you know we we we work with a smaller number of Partners ETA so um any and uh yeah I mean it's just great
there's obviously a lot of larger companies more established companies that uh have beening to implement AI MacKenzie's printing money uh all of the all of the Consultants are going around to every business here's how you can use
AI ramp actually has an obvious narrative here which is uh you know receip classification and iterating over your financials uh to get you more accurate data more quickly anyway go check it out couple comments before we jump into the next section uh Vall in
the chat says guys react to zalinsky vers Trump I said too political for us ball look nasty though and he says makes sense Jordy we need another Allin uh which is a great point we're trying to hold the line on politics people you
know will ask you to cover politics Cu uh they get a lot of attention but we are a technology and business show we are firmly I mean my my answer on zilinsky versus Trump I see Trump as the founder of Truth social more than the president I mean that's something he
does politics but we're interested in him as a right I think they're arguing about the mines and so once we once we hear zin's business Acumen then we can comment but in terms of the politics stuff not really interesting to us so
and cder says watching John get better at transitions is like watching Tiger Woods practice his swing so better every day every day uh eventually you won't know if it's an ad or it's all Blended together it's going to be perfectly blend C we'll have to have you on the
show and when we have you on the show we'll have you call in not via Skype but via Zoom or FaceTime because Skype is out of business they're shutting it down breaking news here on the show we're actually breaking this news it BR it
broke earlier elsewhere but we're breaking breaking it on the show uh Sheil monut says end of an era uh and says exclusive uh Microsoft is finally shutting down Skype in May it's the end of an era uh Skype could have been WhatsApp Plus zoom in one but it was a
terrible Balmer esque M Balmer era Microsoft acquisition for .5 billion let's go historical size yeah so it was it was maybe terrible for Microsoft but it was fantastic for the Skype shareholders and so we should celebrate that yes and one of uh so Skype
fascinating story sure they took that IL liquid you know they got the returns from the illiquid Skype stock rolled it into other IL liquid assets that have since you know multiplied hey you're getting ahead we we got the whole breakdown right here great uh 2003
company founded in Estonia by the founders of of kazah which was which was a competitor to Napster if you're familiar uh the P2P fil sharing service used to Pirate music I was using kazab back then that was fun download some corn tracks or Lim biscuit albums it was
fantastic this is like the best ERA of the internet the Kazam money meant run over by a truck in 2003 really yeah wait what are you I'm actually Ser K wait what do you mean you got run over this is some lore I got run over by an off
duty ambulance driver who was uh driving a pickup truck is this why you can't bench three plates yet yes that's exactly why they I was actually they I went you know got taken in a real ambulance to the hospital and they said you know your son's fine but he's never
going to be able to bench three plates and that stuck with me it put a chip on my shoulder well when you do it you know we're going to be but I'm going to prove him wrong I'm not going to listen to that doctor back in 2003 I'm going to
you know do the impossible yeah once you do it we're going to saber open a bottle of D perion and saber open a bottle of uh protein shake chug that perfect so they didn't need to raise VC 2003 2005 they have 54 million users 7 million in
Revenue 60 million in 05 they're printing just Estonia has got to be a great place to start an illegal peer-to-peer file sharing platform very fast internet there do you know this story so estonia's Eastern block used to be part of the US is that
where a lot of the vpns are uh I don't know if there's that many but uh there are some there are some fantastic entrepreneurs there so uh they break away from Russia and they invest very very heavily in the internet they get very very high internet speeds and so
they have tons of kids that get online and learn all sorts of stuff very early in my YouTube career I I had a research assistant who was an Estonian guy he was obsessed with Estonia and was always like we should cover this Estonian story
and I'm like I don't know if I should do another Estonia thing but I like the I like where your head's at kid um and but I did do one on bolt uh and the founder of that company which is an Uber competitor and the kid uh built this business into billions and billions of
dollars kind of uber for the rest of the world and has been fantastically successful and uh and one of his I think one of his Angel Investors was this guy Yan who was a founder of Skype who got a bunch of money out of Skype and became a
big investor and that guy also invested in FTX very early on he's a fascinating character uh so he's been he's been all over Silicon Valley um and so uh in 200 five they get acquired by eBay for 2.6 billion eBay claimed it would help buyer
seller communication but that never made sense to shial uh and eBay wrote it down by 1.7 billion in two in 2007 uh by 2009 they have 400 million users 100 million daus and $700 million in revenue and so 65% of stripe gets acquired by Silver
Lake a16z cppib an index for 1.9 billion valuing the company at 2.75 billion a16 wrote a 50 million check $50 million check out of their $300 million first fund people thought they were crazy for investing in a late stage private Equity
deal didy well that is crazy and I remember that being on their on their uh I remember that being on their um portfolio page and I didn't realize that they did it post acquisition which is very very rare for uh for VC um so in 2011 yeah but it's sort of some
interesting lore given that they've turned into more of this sort of multi-stage asset manager that resembles private Equity started back in 20 2009 they've been in the game for 16 years in these odd deals so uh you know if you're
out there saying oh they're completely pivoting their model Maybe not maybe they've been maybe they've cut their teeth in in yeah they didn't return the fund even though it was a good outcome but uh certainly got some of the way there yeah I mean they they invested at
one point uh at at 2.75 and they sold it at 8.5 so uh 3x they probably got 150 mil out on that $50 million check but that's a that's a $300 million fund so they returned half the fund on that deal which is pretty good um and it was just
two years so by 2011 there had 600 million users 170 million da Maus uh 1 billion in Revenue Balmer they probably recycled the investment and just reinvested that the 3x and potentially got exactly so a16z looks really smart with early DPI and so they're what this
is their first fund and they're say hey we you gave us 300 we already got 150 back we got a bunch of other bangers in here let's do the second fund the third fund the growth fund the dynamism fund all these different things at Balmer era
Microsoft Innovation slowed Skype never really made the move from desktop to mobile Skype had poor UI technical debt and made and never got much mobile adoption meanwhile Zoom was founded in 2011 and WhatsApp took off WhatsApp has
$2.5 billion and is probably worth at least 10 B 100 billion yeah that sounds right uh Zoom has 300 million is worth 25 billion still blows my mind that Zoom trades lower than it did pre pandemic when it had fewer users it went from 10
million to 300 million another interes only had 10 million users pre pandemic yeah it was small but then it was but then uh Google was way way behind and uh there were a bunch of problems that actually Google internally was using Hangouts because they're like wait we
got to dog food our product but once they went realiz how bad it was everyone was like this is awful like it's it's it's breaking all the time uh we can't get 50 people in there crashing so what's the choice we either fix this problem or we go to zoom and there's
this story about they put all their best Engineers on it uh even like the AI guys came in for a couple days and we're like okay let's let's figure out what's going on let's optimize this let's go deep seek mode on this and is wild I have
zero you know I have so many memories using Skype as a kid playing Starcraft other video games uh having Skype would be something that I would get home from school you know I'd finish soccer practice or something like that I would turn it on and it would just be on
almost until basically until yeah dinner or sometimes even later you know know doing you know homework hanging out this was I used a lot of these uh IRC were you using Skype when you were um gaming no in your early part of your career a
little bit actually I was I was trying to make a joke about you being old I mean yeah like Skype was the thing yeah you you would Skype with someone uh definitely in college Skype was like the default it was like the best video
chatting platform for sure uh but the other interesting tidbit is like game boys over Skype uh it was actually uh pong that was the one pong and uh and and a lot of telegraphs you know like that was the main thing if you wanted to raise money get on Skype and
practice you're exactly exactly I'm a beast at the Morse code Morse code yeah Morse code uh and carrier pigeons obviously time to lot of lot of Scrolls passing around on Horseback this is kind of the vibe uh back when you know draft
dodging trying to not go to Vietnam this is like my where I cut my teeth stff exactly uh Tony Bates the CEO of Skype at the acquisition by Microsoft was considered a rising star at Microsoft and was actually one of the top folks considered to be in the running for CEO
of Microsoft but was but left once nadela got the gig anyway fun to look down memory lane I use Skype a lot in my life um I use Skype regularly until 2018 because it was the industry Norm for one of my companies in 2018 they started uh
requiring Microsoft la login and they lost many of the users they had left and he and then he did add a correction Skype 1.0 did raise VC dollar they raised 18.8 million from dfj in index Mangrove and besser a year before they got acquired for 2.6 billion Mangrove
was the first investor and got 100x on the deal in two years and so you you had a story about um uh like a pen pal on Skype what was your experience with Skype uh no I would just use it while playing Starcraft there um and uh I just
remember a bunch of my friends after school get on Skype because I lived in a I I grew up uh in wine country and uh everybody was super spread out so if you didn't your parents weren't going to drive you around you just kind of had to
go home after school and get online so and so if you wanted to get a bunch of your Skype friends together out in wine country for a long weekend at a nice house what would you do well I'd go to wanderer.com of course fantastic and
you'd find your your happy place find your happy place we got to know got do find your happy place find your happy place thank you to Tyler for the recommendation he said next time Jingles for sure sure to sing it flip that book of wander with inspiring views Hotel
great amenities dreamy beds and top tier cleaning and 247 coner service it's a vacation home but better folks what's not to like and we got a post from Kyle Tibbits over at wander he says International expansion has kicked off
at wander with pins popping up on the map in new places like Quebec Cabo and Costa Rica stay tuned for more I never leave the United States but if you do good luck to you book a wander while you're abroad you are really America pilled and that I'm still America you
try not to leave at all I'm not leaving you're gonna have to drag me out I'm not leaving I'm not leaving but fortunately there are hundreds of wanders in the United States and I'm going to visit all of them yep I'm going to I'm going to
drive to all 50 states I'm I'm going to go to stay in every single wandering Amer am and then I'm sure I'll see some videos of people in these issue is they added they added 100 in the last month so if you were trying to go to Every wander and they keep this P you never
you'd have to be doing three a day you wouldn't even actually get to spend the night in every single one but you just pop in you know remote unlock it jump in and uh anyways but the pace is ridiculous and uh we got some more news we got more news some really breaking
news this shook the tech IND this shook the tech industry I would say more than any of the AI news this was the biggest story this week maybe this month I think we're going to look back on 2025 and say this was the year of Sam suck getting
his ifbb Pro card and so uh Cody main says extremely Niche tweet for my fellow Jim Bros but Sam suck earning an ifbb Pro card in his second ever show is one of the coolest things I've seen in a long time he's 23 years old he's got no
coach he documented every step of his Journey on YouTube and he's a certified freak look at that man that is the Pinnacle of excellence and we got another post from Zack uh he says Sam suak suck is the ultimate example of obsession he just became an ifbb Pro he
was looking absolutely diced grainy he was peeled it was fantastic uh winning two he winning first two bodybuilding shows he posted daily YouTube videos for two years documenting every single workout he gain 4 million subscribers This Is What It Takes apply
this mentality to your goals and I really think we are the Sam Su of tech and business podcasting in the sense that we every single day and it's silly and you can look at this and say oh he's just some bodybuilder he's just some
vlogger whatever but there is a lesson in here about the obsession mentality and just doing things daily and improving daily over time you see it with uh why is Jake Paul big you know you might not like his content but he posted it's every day bro he literally
posted a Blog every single a vlog every single day for years something about a coach what a coach often provides as much as advice advice is free on the internet you go get advice anywhere it's infinitely available uh a coach provides
accountability and so Sam by just sharing every single workout has the accountability of hundreds of thousands or millions of people right that are going to say you didn't push yourself as hard as you could there right and they're going to call them out on it and
it's and it's part of the part of the program um but uh but yeah I think it's I think it's with his uh 3D renders he posted a new 3D render every single day for something like 10 years I think Joe Rogan uh famous uh thought leader had a
had a quote that was something to the effect of how would you live your life if you if your life was you know a movie right and you had you knew that you had an audience right you probably would wouldn't Doom scroll and you would go to
bed early because you know you're a main character you're a hero right you'd get snug snuggle up in your eight sleep and you'd crash you'd get that good sleep score yep um but uh but yeah there's this idea of like how would you work out
in the gym if if you actually had an audience right and a lot of people just go through the motions in their life they don't take it very seriously but take your life seriously Sam takes his life seriously he's 23 ifbb Pro he's completely natural
to future future Terminator I'm really pushing for that that's our uh that's our 2025 2026 goal please reboot Terminator cast Sam suck the the lines will be around the block at every theater in America truly it would actually would be a blockbuster it would
be absolute Blockbuster and it's a perfect movie where you don't need it's it's about the Ridiculousness of it you don't need the best actor no and that's the thing if you do the full reboot the first Terminator Arnold still was working on his English and his acting
I'm pretty sure and so he's the bad guy and he doesn't really say that much he's actually like the monster so most of what he's doing is just marching and shooting and stuff he's not really delivering that many lines then by the second one they like reboot
him and he becomes the good Terminator plays into all the AI stuff I would totally watch it the Terminator franchise really really cool but it's gone downhill with all these like kind of shoddy spin-offs and we're in like Series 7 go get uh James Cameron back
can you believe it's a James Cameron movie that's crazy uh get Sam suck get James Cameron get in the same room uh and make a great Terminator reboot I would absolutely watch that it's crazy to think that if uh James Cameron didn't
didn't survive his reading and driving era remember he was driving trucks while reading uh very very uh sketchy but uh we would never have Terminator and we would never maybe have Titanic Avatar we' never have Sam solic cast as Terminator yeah well if you're thinking
about going for your ifbb pro card you know that sleep is the number one way to increase your testosterone naturally and uh yeah maybe you're competing in the naturals and if you want to get great sleep we recommend getting an aid I
would I would love if someone in our community uh actually went to be to be a bodybuilder we would put the full force of the Brotherhood behind them and uh we'd even pay off judges and stuff do whatever it whatever it took uh and so
eight sleep of course it's nights that fuel your best days turn any bed into the ultimate sleeping experience go to 8sleep.com tvpn to check it out's your what's your sleep score o I don't know it might have been a rough night I actually had a
rough night too eight sleep the app my rough night is your best you got me beat a couple days oh what what what you got I got a 91 yeah you beat me yes let's go I got I got an 86 okay I got I just didn't get I didn't put I just put
didn't put the time into it quality wasn't great routine wasn't quite on point but we're getting better I had to pick someone up early this morning uh earlier than usual it's a journe talking about soon well let's go by the way we got to mention it we have
a link in the in the YouTube and we have a code TB just a code is TBN or sleep.com tvpn get a few hundred off your eight sleep and you can enter the The Challenge and try to uh you know beat us on our sleep scores yep fantastic well
let's go to some launches we got Splash robotics coming out of Y combinator uh they are building unman Patrol boats to defend our nation's critical infrastructure and secure our borders they're able to autonomously detect and intercept threats faster than any human
operator I love stuff like this uh you know all the memes are like I guess we're doing boats now I guess we're doing military technology uh and and I saw someone reacting to that like did the dod just take over YC or something but this is the perfect hack project for
a YC team to go build I'm I'm so I'm so happy with these typ projects is this this is a seric competitor probably at some scale but you know with these YC companies like who knows like they're so early that they could wind up finding
some little niche here and there it's very unclear that it's like yeah this is a real shot across the bout to the billion dooll company that is like working with the dod uh this could be something that goes into uh Coast Guard
or or or responds to an entirely different program area um It could wind up being something that's more commercial focused it could be something that gets Aqua hired or merged into another company it's just a bunch of people building some cool stuff and so
I'm I'm here for it one of my favorite YouTube channels is this guy hi Sutton who's a defense analyst you know this guy no he just talks about Naval Warfare and he makes these like oneshot monologue videos about this great interesting Tech okay so he'll basically
start the video and being like yeah I didn't really people have said oh get a better microphone get a camera all this stuff not doing it just making this video and his videos are super engaging he just nerds out about you can go uh
watch this video essential guide to 2024 Naval Warfare in the Black Sea and so it'll talk about this guy and it'll talk about all the ways that they're using uh you know autonomous uh Technologies and so Splash robotics I wouldn't be
surprised if they're using his videos to inform their product development because they talk about how uh they'll they'll actually take jet skis and turn them into sort of these uh remote control bombs and you know eventually would potentially be autonomous so cool cool
the nerd out on awesome well congrats to the team and let us know how it goes um let's move on to Brendan arbe the uh former co-founder of oculus VR with Palmer lucky uh he has a new company called Sesame he says we're exploring a future where the computer isn't just a
tool it's a partner with a truly natural voice and personality no big claims just early work we're excited to share and a bunch of people were uh shouting this out Toby looky the founder and CEO of Shopify uh said man sesame's voice model
is absolutely insane you have got to try this demo and post the link still puts up 1K likes let's see it buil different you love to see someone include a link do numbers I love it you want to try to play it I don't know we're nun also says
this is the most her moment I've felt in the last few years it's truly uncanny recommend trying this now uh but in the comments gav v v says what am I missing this felt trash and the just says what like so little bit of different uh of
different experiences you just got to go try it for yourself I don't think we're going to pull it up uh but uh it seems like a cool uh cool chat focused voice focused AI tool so uh excited for for them to launch that and we recommend
that you go make your own decision about whether or not you like it or not but speaking of AI uh we got a post from Kushi she says uh where is cursor for figma and you got an answer figma is cursor for figma that's true uh you've been talking with the team over there
yep uh they got some big big plans in the works yeah it's really shocking that a Founder mode CEO who's a teal fellow and has been in the game just got a billion dollar breakup fee yeah billion dollar breakup fee and has been studying
this stuff for billion dollar of non- deluded financing he's actually heard of AI you know and he's been on the same timeline that we've been on and so he is well aware of it and building plenty of uh tools to make figma uh easier to use
and and more uh diffuse both on the uh prompt to design side and then also deployment into actual app obviously you can imagine where figma goes on either side of the design program uh they've built this great Network they've built
this great Core Design tool that's very very rich very deep it makes a ton of sense they would extend in both directions I think figma should ultimately do the sort of quarterly release model I think they have more to release than someone like a flex Port
right they need to be dominating sort of high visual yeah it's highly visual having and and know having the team say going be shipping you know these sort of uh incredible advancements in the product every single quarter would be cool to
see I I was thinking about this like uh have you ever seen those like uh pictures where people use Ms paint and then they paint like the Mona Lisa it's like the most incredible thing or they do art in Microsoft Excel I really want to see an account pop up that's like
figma abuse basically basically where someone builds like the cinee chapel in figma and it's like Pixel Perfect and just with the individual pixels yeah exactly exactly so just having someone there obsessively abuse figma to do
something that it can do but it was certainly not designed to do I think that is highly viral potential and I think great Mark in the age of AI generated images I want the art Artis designer to be making a an image pixel by pixel I want to see the time lapse
with the face cam colored hand painted exactly uh go and do it we'll cover it here live it's great well let's move on to Weber who says introducing Flora your intelligent canvas every creative AI tool thoughtfully connected we've built
Flora uh florana AI side by side with creative professionals from art students to designers at top agencies like pentagram to give them speed control and collaboration in one seamless system this feels like figma adjacent potentially is that right yeah um we
built Library creative workflows from cinematic storyboarding to typography variations designed by creatives with tast it still feels more oriented around generating uh things like copy and images versus design but I'm sure they're thinking about it yeah like less
prummer less professional and maybe more like uh what's that what what's that other uh uh design tool visual electric no the one that's uh the Australian girl runs you know who I'm talking about uh how do we not how am I blanking on this
it's worth like billions right I you know what I'm talking about can canva canva canva I was going to say if you search design tool it will be the but canva was always like a little bit more consumer like make a meme make a postcard make an invite and then it's
gone kind of up Market figma has been more of like what the best designers in the world use and now they're going a little bit more down Market to something where an individual uh programmer could use it um and this feels a little bit
more like pop in make something and they're starting with uh you know something that's a little bit more organic Eugene GC driven then uh hey we're plugging this right into Enterprises on day one uh they' said they built a library of creative
workflows from cinematic storyboarding to typography variations uh these workflows could save weeks of iteration to get access repost the first post above and comment Flora that's hilarious little little algorithm hacking on your on your launch video 1,000 reposts and
3,000 likes half a million views very smart you don't see that as much you see that on when people release podcasts on Instagram now they'll say comment for the link you know uh and I'll DM you the link right and it's sort of a way to
just hack the algorithm to think that there's a ton of interest in in a in a post but clearly there was a bunch of real interest here and uh go watch the demo it's very cool how they you know link these models together and this feels something uh you know closer to uh
cognition or Devon for me and that as if they can own the workflow as the underlying models you know get better and they're connecting them in different ways to generate um you know final outputs uh they'll they'll be well positioned and their product will
improve as the underlying models get better yeah well it's cool to see people exploring new tools and uh yeah love to play with that and see if we can generate some content for the show with it or something uh let's play around
with it well anyway let's move on to the timeline which has been in turmoil Vall in the chat just asked for this so his timing was perfect fantastic pachy McCormick says andal versus Jason calacanis who you got and a lot of people are sounding off in the comments
Reggie in the comments drone strike his ass um now we're talking well I've got the popcorn and so this all started with uh there's been news in the just in the world that like there might be some Epstein files coming out some Epstein
leaks or something Palmer posts a picture of the black book uh with Jason cis's phone numbers listed there uh I guess this is a Rolodex from uh uh the the late Mr Epstein um and uh but this is actually old news this this broke years ago this is not to be confused
with The Client List exactly yes yes yes and and Jason it doesn't you know it doesn't necessarily make uh certainly doesn't make Jason look good yeah but there are lots of people in that in in the black book because they met him for
any sort of reason in this case they had at least four of his phone numbers so it sounds like it looks like three or three in an address right I think I think um but yeah uh so obviously they met and uh and Matt Grim uh quote tweets Palmer and
says this is the face you make when your weekend just got a little bit more complicated we see you Jason so the Andro guys are really coming for jcal uh and Jason responded he says and now Matt Grim Palmer Lucky's partner is using a
Photoshop photo of me being twice as fat as I ever was and trying to slander Me by insinuating I was involved with Epstein Matt knows full well that I wasn't that I've said I wasn't and that there is no news here like thousand the
issue here just just double clicking on the Photoshop thing is how do we know this is Photoshopped it doesn't even if you were going to go to the lengths of photoshopping a picture uh you would you would maybe take it a bit further I would say because he looks yeah sure
Jance ones where he's like full red or like the gigachad one yeah yeah take it a little bit further this is just very believable the other thing is you know Jason has been vocal about being aoic and these things and he he used to have
an some some extra weight on him so the issue with Jason is he does tend to uh say things that aren't true from time to time and so uh I do believe there's some factually correct things in here uh related to this not being The Client List things like that but at the same I
kind of think it might be a real pick I think it might be a real pick and Ted in the 1990s I am in his black book which has been out for over a decade that's true and has hundreds of other Ted Tech Finance New Yorkers in it what is Ted yeah so so it is a real
picture so a few a few the guys in the chat uh Rory Hull and Brian say Matt actually has a screenshot of the source he pulled it from okay okay he is a real photo Jason I mean we we respect we respect someone who's uh looking great
now yeah he's looking younger than ever he's getting diced he's on OIC and I see an ifbb Pro card potentially in the future you know this one not looking great but he's looking better now keep going apologize to Palmer clean up the relationship and then hit the
gym yeah go subscribe to Sam sule stage the Arnold Classic he basically open sourced I'm not asking him to go people have been people have been uh people have been investing in creators I'd like to see Jason cis's launch yeah invest in
you know give you know invest in Sam silic I would kill to be in that round I would actually that's a great deal should try we should try to put that together John would would kill somebody to get allocation oh man I think he's going to
be extremely successful I'm super bullish on Sam suak uh and so yeah little bit of little bit of spicy timeline today you know we love the andal folks we love jcal uh there is one problem that we need to address which is the fact that uh Jason calacanis still
does not run ads on the Allin podcast and that I think have to imagine with the the Allin and turmoil now you have to imagine he he's seeing a window to potentially get some ads on there right people sax is out of the picture is the reason why he doesn't run
ads do you think that's what Epstein told him say hey my final wish to you don't run ads I we weren that close I know you never came to the island yeah but just please whatever you do run ads don't run ads and Jason maybe just wants
to respect it seems like they were maybe they certainly were friendly they certainly were friendly we don't know if were friends yeah yeah um they were defin acquaintances I I I think I think Jay Cal has a chance to turn it all around apologize to Palmer
clean up the relationship and then run some ads for anderol it really is a stain on uh it's rough Jason and it's rough and and we know that Palmer does have the ability to turn the other cheek uh you know he was going after Zuck and
meta and Facebook for a long time and they cleaned that up they cleaned up that relationship something happened uh things changed and they clearly you know had a conversation Palmer went and looked at the Orion headset said hey this is great you know and so I would I
would love to see that turn around because I hate when uh the big dogs and Tech are fighting I don't like it hate to see it yeah I hate to see it see it I just want one one solidified podcasters technology podcasters and Industry
podcasters and Founders should never fight never never anyway uh well if you love Jason calanis don't work at Ander roll I guess uh Devin Luton says crazy andal campaign that's an amazing extension I want to see an ad quick billboard that says if you love Jason
calanis you'll hate working you'll hate working at Ander roll yeah if you're listening to this week startups probably don't work at andal because uh yeah you'll be uh it'll be rough for you but they have a crazy andal campaign here at
Boston South Station they put up a bunch of different posters they're literally obsessed with America don't work at andal they have the graffiti uh some great design going on and uh people are loving the advertisements and if you're looking to do some out of home we
recommend adquick dcom baby out of home advertising Made Easy and measurable say goodbye to the headaches of outof Home advertising what's an adquick line that we could s only ad Qui only ad quick combines technology ad enables you to
launch hyper targeted out of home campaigns we we're still working we're still workshopping that um but it combin technology out of home expertise and data to enable efficient seamless ad buying across the globe go to adi.com to check it out work with a bunch of
fantastic companies too uh if you work with adquick you're working with Shopify carvana door Dash Poshmark butcherbox uh ramp Wall Street Journal Warby Parker Discount Tire cool uh the H&R Block lift instacart credit K Compass base camp
Equinox Pluto TV duck ducko uh Nike NFL Amazon drizzly gopuff they got all the big dogs up there go be a big dog run some out of home ads with adquick and you can follow Chris on X he said hey Elon Musk look at this and it's a post
from uh someone flagging the fact that Google is buying Apple search ads on the grock term is just too beautiful a circle of life for me Google is buying Apple search ads on term hey you wanted this extremely Politically Incorrect correct uh llm how about the most the
most politically correct most politically correct one do you want the opposite yeah uh and so yeah I actually know I don't know how I didn't know Google had a Gemini app we talked about this they spun it out because it was so hard to find because I was complaining
they listened to me I was complaining about how I paid all this money and I couldn't get to Gemini although I'm sure when I download the app who knows what model I'll be on and the model probably won't even tell me what model I'm on and
what the context window will be but that's not how people use these things and so they say block the power of Google AI on your phone you search for grock you get Google Gemini don't make the mistake uh you know be sharp don't get fooled if you're looking for grock
sexy mode you're not going to find it in Google Gemini um let's go to uh Brent leang who we've doing some work with we love this guy he says the Lean Startup thinking has been has probably done more harm than good lots of low conviction
3-month pivots and folding based on an abysmally small sample size encourages being neurotic and constantly skeptical almost the opposite of being an entrepreneur what do you think Jordy I mean the thing that yeah I think the Le like the the
whole thing the best thing you can do if you're early in your startup journey is just read all the books read 0er to one read The Lean Startup Founders podcast Founders podcast I think Founders podcast is advice or or wisdom that's more Timeless right where Dave CRA is
not saying you need to F follow the McDonald's founder and just do what they said he's just saying this is his approach to work learn from it take it apply it uh I read The Lean Startup back in the day I think it's um it's this
fine line between sometimes if you're willing to just persevere and look stupid and and be okay with the fact that you don't have traction and just keep pushing forward trying to get it sometimes you get paid off you know you get paid for it y if you look at uh you
know uh crypto Founders the ones that have been successful have not followed this approach for the most part they've sort of just said uh you know they've stayed stayed lean but more so they're willing to look stupid for two years so that when the market rips they look like
a genius right um and so it's definitely uh this is a vintage post I think we're now seeing if you're going and building in hard tech for example you can't afford to follow purely The Lean Startup approach it's it's it's a model that I
think works really well for pmf or die style products where it just says you know intense Focus stay really lean you know um but uh but yeah it's not going to work if you're trying to build andril right you need to have this sort of bold
ambitious plan and be very patient and executed over many many years and um you know realize that you know you could do years of work before being paid for it and that's part of the game yeah I think this is the Lean Startup thinking has
kind of mutated a little bit like the original idea of the Lean Startup was just that in the dot era in order to build a website you had to raise $10 million and build a data center like I I remember as a kid like my dad worked at
a you built some of those data C I literally did I would rack servers as like a summer job and and and this was just for like a company with a website you got to when when when we're you know 60 and and some Anon posters in the comments you know you chirping at you
you say I myself I was racking servers When I was Your diapers yeah uh but it's true like like the default the default path to building even just a website like we want to build a car a car auction website or we want to build any
startup it was raise $10 million because you are going to need to buy servers hire a lot of different people because there are not these abstraction layers of AWS there's no cursor there's not even python like the code needs to be written in Java or C++ well what happens
when you write in Java and C++ you need five times as many people because everything takes longer to write and so um so the Lean Startup was just getting the word out that it is possible to now build a company yeah in a lower cost
lower capex intensive way and that was true yeah he basically just coined what was happening exactly some circles and said you know this is a way bit it's founder mode right where founder mode didn't have a name exactly and then but
people kind of were aware that certain companies just operated you know and CEOs just operated differently yeah and and so he people were he was just saying like hey we don't need these $10 million seed rounds to build websites anymore
you can build on top of these services and stay lean and then once you find traction talk to your customers get out of the building these were all these ideas of like don't go and waste all this money and and do a $10 million experiment do a $1 million experiment
but I agree with Brent that pivoting every three months folding based on an abysmally low sample size that is wrong you should you should make sure that you really tested things actually understand the product and ideally you have a ton
of conviction about the the direction that the company's going before you even start so you're like yeah for the first three months have been rough but I still know that there's an Insight here I still know that there's some fundamental
value of what I'm creating anyway let's move on to Rohit he says excellent portrait of Tyler Cowen in The Economist lots of known Beats but this is the most underrated part and so the economist did a whole profile in Tyler Cowen I highly
recommend you go check it out uh but I love this quote he says Cowan's life Cowan's emotional life remains a mystery he told me he did not experience regret I don't know what the function of it is he said is it to Signal thoughtfulness to stop you making further mistakes it's
like Revenge I don't understand it Cowen also said he doesn't understand Envy or anger he didn't know what uh he didn't know what he should be envious of he didn't get lonely by himself or in company he actually said why bother when
he told me he had never been depressed I asked him to clarify what he meant he'd never been clinically depressed depressed for a month for a week an afternoon I looked up from my notebook an an enormous smile one I had not seen before spread across the whole of
cowen's face like for a whole afternoon he asked hugely grinning just mogged uh so on the on the topic of our earlier subject GPT 45 Tyler Cen was quoted today saying I'm more positive on 45 than almost anyone else I have read I view it as a model
that attempts to improve on the dimension of Aesthetics only as we know from K's third critique that is about the hardest achievement possible yeah and so somebody did the be me prompt uh so be me Tyler Cowen yeah wake up at 5:23 a.m. precisely eat exactly seven
blueberries three Brazil nuts and a/4 cup of Icelandic SK here sky sky I don't know productivity. jpeg write two blog posts one on obscure Romanian Cinema the other on the economics of parking meters check email reply exclusively in
lowercase very interesting thanks for this send perhaps send 10 breakfast meeting with unnamed intelligence officials discuss Singaporean food stalls instead of geopolitics yep uh lunchtime arrives ask waiter what is your least popular dish waiter visibly
confused what is your least popular dish recommend some for Ed Herring special wonderful I'll have that extra spicy genuinely enjoy it back to office podcast guest waiting it's a chess Grandmaster who's also an amateur botanist and former DJ that's great so I
actually think this is like pretty fun that's pretty good and and and that's just like so many different threads pulling all together like like there must be a lot of different data in the training model if you're pulling all
that together because some of that stuff you really have to you know follow all of his blog posts all of his tweets all of his podcast transcripts to understand or talk to him in person to really get that flavor so yeah good job uh maybe
potentially underrated maybe the early haters are wrong we'll see we'll see as it rolls out either way it's just nice to have a more aesthetic model I think that's good even if it's not that's actually maybe even a better outcome if it's just a nicer friendlier more more
aesthetic experience uh it doesn't necessarily need to be 190 IQ Sol generally what car karpathy was kind of alluding to just said differently which was if you're a high taste tester you're going to notice the difference here if
you're a loby uh you know uh word cell you know you're going to maybe Miss I need to we we need to try the be me prompt and maybe that should be the new prompt see how it goes B me golden retriever start day run around the house bark a little bit turbo
s.png put on sunglasses indoors it's great uh well we got a post from Katherine Bole uh JD Vance is going to be headlining the American dynamism Summit next month this is Coachella for G for Tech Bros that like guns yes and Coachella for Tech Bros that don't like
guns had gaver Gavin Nome and Dr Chelsea Clinton at The Upfront Summit and so this is the opposite of the Allin sum it says Chris Fric uh and wait Chelsea Clinton has a venture fund Metro Venture fund what I didn't know that how we not
we we've we've said before we would never raise a round yes yes yes also when did she get her doctor I I Metro Dora Ventures interesting anyway uh yeah upfront Summit happened this week it was very popular I think Delian stopped by some
other people texted me that they were in town yeah so she has a values conscious Venture Capital firm investing in health and learning huh maybe she could back the pmf or die Founders they also don't want to raise but yeah you know Ventures
about value ad more than capital I bet you Doctor what were the values that she cares about health learning oh she should back Sam suck he's all about heal so true that's so true the didn't up tront try to get Sam suck but he just
was busy they got Chamillionaire a long time ago did you know that yeah they've had a they've had as like aine it was very fun I think Andre had NS and then upfront had Chamillionaire and so you'd hop on a call and Chamillionaire would just be hanging out
with you talking on talking sass talking sass great uh anyway speaking of the P for die guys let's go to Blake he says standards I have for new employees Partners work 12 plus hours a day make massive sacrifices desire to pay their
dues won't break Under Pressure these are 100% within uh one's control so the the the key here yep is it's perfectly fine for a leader to say this if they live all those things Blake is you can go on pmf or die. XYZ which is not our website and see exactly how much he's
working y tracked uh every single second of the day he's massive sacrifices he's not leaving the cage for 90 you know potentially 90 days paying his dues potentially ever he hasn't broken Under Pressure he hasn't broken Under Pressure
I mean there was a lot of pressure there was a lot of pressure week one the thing the thing we didn't fully calculate with the cage is that there would be hundreds of people basically you know demanding that uh demanding attention in the chat
so we'll get to talk about that we're actually going to be doing a press conference on the pmfr dive stream uh at 1 p.m. uh Pacific in just 30 minutes so we got we got to check on him because if pmf for die doxyz shows Blake in the seat for 11
hours 59 minutes it's not going to look good for him yeah he's got he's got to be down he's got work cell number 17's got to be operating at full capacity totally uh let's go to Elon Musk um he's quote tweeting someone who is doing another AI Game Dev uh demo uh he says
wow this is cool uh Danny says I believe that grock can be a serious tool to build quality games I've been pushing the limits of grock 3 by having it code this retro Doom inspired Gothic shooter from scratch uh it's been less than 24
hours to of work and I think I got it to a pretty good place and the Demo's pretty cool um but yeah uh there's another Post in here that I wanted to highlight that was that was fun about how if you want to go viral the best way is to code a a game right now and and
screen share the the video let me see if I can find that one your self building the game you build the game and then play it and then you build it play it build it play it yeah Kristoff says if you want to go viral right now start making a video game with cursor and post
the progress I'm sick of seeing it but that's what gets the Impressions right now and so yeah maybe we should build a t tvpn game go viral hey we built this in 10 we just need to bait we need to be f one post a day from each of us baiting
an Elon repost that's good wow Elon is awesome and and grock is so awesome I love grock I I stopped using all I stopped using chat and everything else and I just use Gro it is the best repost your phone just your phone your phone
just starts melting shaking I Crush my 911 into a into a ball of metal and I bought a the the metal sidings on my cyber truck with it with Crush 911 melted down 911 is the side side plating for sure we actually should do one of those we we it would be worthwhile doing
a uh you know telling Jason calacanis huge Tesla guy to uh say hey we're going to drive a vintage uh Ferrari you drive a cyber Tru and do one of those you know pulling battles and just let the Cyber truck win post it from our account so we
get the so we get the ratings we get the ratings we get the ratings as Jake K say yeah uh but it is cool I I love that people are building cool games with with uh cursor with grock with all these different tools uh very very fun and and
we love to people be able to instantiate like silly ideas like pmf or die or pmf or die. XYZ in a very quick fashion which is only possible with the AI era and so yeah if you have some funny idea something on your bucket list go build
it post it you might get quote tweeted by Elon Musk and get three million views on your on your app drive a bunch of followers and then start a podcast who knows anyway let's move on too Le Hamilton okay I want to I want to read this because this is uh this sounds like
something that SRA would say and it it's clearly he might be quoting potentially you know a lot of the best uh athletes you know uh actors Etc have just been ripping senra but clearly inspired by by Timmy or potentially happening at the same time Lewis
Hamilton uh now over at Ferrari says don't ever compare me to anybody else I'm the first and only black driver and that's that's ever been in the sport I'm built different I've been through a lot I've had my own Journey you can't
compare me to another 40-year-old Pastor present Formula 1 driver in history because they are nothing like me I'm hungry driven don't have a wife and kids I'm focused on one thing and that's winning that's my number one priority I
love how locked in he is there's this quote I think it's uh it's Alonzo yeah where he's driving and he makes this like very very like sketchy pass yeah and he goes after they're they're interviewing he goes oh he's got a wife and kids at home I knew he would break
and it's like the craziest thing because you can tell he's you know they're both gunning for the corner he's like yeah this guy's guy racing again is like I don't want to die wow that is crazy I hav't thought about that and so when
you're racing it's it's you know the you know I don't know what the actual I'm sure that Bas jumping is more dangerous than you know F1 but f1's one of the most dangerous you know um high level professional sports and thankfully getting a lot less dangerous thanks to
the Halo and some of this and 100% I I drive a lot slower than I did pre kids you know I I used to go up in the canyons and have a rip uh I do that much less frequently now yeah Mak sense anyway let's move on to Sam lesson Sam says Elon what did you get done this
week at at AI scale is in fact the AI future AI isn't going to be your professional assistant it's going to be your professional manager getting spicy a lot of people probably won't like this one uh over and over I see doesn't get
enough credit for being up there in the rage bait Hall of Fame with with people like sweaty Stardust oh yeah uh you know he's up there Sam is more sophisticated you know in his approach brow he's not saying you know I want my employees to
work hard he's saying you're going to be managed by an AI uh and I think this is a cool take you know we've talked before you can imagine a world where a an individual who's never managed another person before is managing you know Devon and other agents to run their business
uh but this is sort of uh flipping that on its head so he says over and over I see people pushing these Rosy ideas that AI is going to be your assistant fine yes you will get some cute AI that schedules for you in some form and sends
sweet nothings in the morning about your day it will prepare little reports for you that might make you feel all warm and fuzzy but that won't be the real leveraged impact the real leveraged impact is that AI is going to be your manager you are the order taker for it
not the other way around Elon has got this right the real value of asking for formally what have you done this week and knowing who is pulling weight culling those who don't and optimizing pushing those who are slan you couldn't
do it effectively before AI at scale but now you can it might be nicely disguised as a coach cute hey to be more productive to do XYZ or it looks like you could focus on X versus y if you want to get that promotion but what it will really be doing is snitching for
your boss your boss's boss and ultimately the dreaded shareholder why well that is where the productivity is going to come from AI will clear the path for basic easy tasks to make sure your time is leveraged fully and will make it easy for managers to deal with
all the complexity cut to the chase of where and how value comes from and who is driving it more transparency is generally good but people who think this is some Rosy machine works for man nah it's the other way around uh interesting
especially interesting in light of that uh controversial AI uh sweat shop company from YC this week um that that it's like the what did you get I no one really pieced it together but that company could have just been called what did you get done this week Ai No
it's more of like what did you get done in the last hour what you get done in the last 10 minutes and then comparing that over time previously and and knowledge workers have this thing where they they sort of get assigned a project
or they have a general area of responsibility and then they just sort of have to there's actually really delayed feedback everybody that's managed a team before if you started a company you hire somebody you sort of break down what they need to get done
you check in with them a week later and sometimes you're you're saying wow this is amazing incredible progress you're crushing it yep sometimes you're sitting there and being like well what did you do the last two days you're coming to me
now confused I wish you asked me you know question two days ago and even worse is like if if something slips for a couple weeks and it's like oh it didn't even get started yep and AI can sort of potentially be omnipresent and sort of be in real time guiding people
towards you know the right outcomes so I still think there's like a manager sitting above the AI coach manager yep that is sort of setting you know the goals but maybe over time you know that that Fades and it's just we're all just
working for the who knows hardworking paperclips the shareholders at the end of the day yep uh let's go to rolloff B in just on you know to kind of extrapolate there you can imagine a world where uh shareholders in a public company say we're actually collectively
you know as shareholders uh are going to vote to H you know basically hire this AI Consulting team that's going to micromanage the management uh it's it doesn't seem unreasonable that that that could happen uh and potentially allows
shareholders to exert you know more more day-to-day control over uh the management at a company could be a lot of push back we'll see I wonder what will happen with that post if it will break containment and get some push back but for now I think it's a it's a
reasonable take who knows we'll see uh let's go to Rolla bota over at seoa he says uh we remain destined to repeat the mistakes of the past spvs are making a comeback where the lead investor speaks for less than 10% of the capital yet
eagerly lines up the latest set of tourist Chumps who think the story will end differently this time it's only been three years what do you think uh who is he subtweeting yeah crazy I mean I'm sure he's just seeing number of rounds Happ
across his portfolio and saying wait this person's doing you know a20 million investment and they only have $50 million under management how does that work and it's oh it's a it's a manager who's um but yeah again there there's a bunch of really um you know good players
out there that use spvs they're great you know tool for investors and often times they provide access to uh great companies but certainly there are many examples where um you know spvs typically get sort of La if you're a Founder putting together a round you're
you're prioritizing people that have the capital ready to wire right or it's one Capital call away to wire uh spvs are often times a not a last resort but you know you're maybe you make room for somebody to do an SPV because they're
saying oh I'm going to bring in this celebrity and this you know person and whatever um but again I think you know I don't think he's subtweeting figure but figure right now one of the risk of the rounds they're putting together is he's basically
Marketing in my view he's almost marketing to retail investors because if he needs to raise $2 billion at a $40 billion valuation the people that will do those rounds are tourist Chumps who uh think they're getting in on the next
Tesla yep uh but are ultimately that when that company has been you know certainly a firm like sequoia or Founders fund is not doing figure almost twice the price of andal right yeah and so there's clearly like a spectrum of uh
kind of credibility in rounds not just what uh you know are you doing an SPV or going with a traditional VC firm but even within the VC world uh there are some funds that have very high GP commits where the partner who's doing the deal has a m very material portion
of their wealth in that fund and so they are like they've basically solved the principal agent Problem by putting their tying their net worth to that firm and uh and so yeah you might raise a $10 million series a and $2 million of that
might come from the partners of the GP or more in some cases uh and so uh if it's a professional investor who's highly aligned that can usually be the best possible signal or the best possible outcome but there's a it when a good comment here from uh har he says
this is generally true uh responding to roll off this is generally true like 99% of the time but when you stumble on a diamond in the rough dot dot dot I'm still chasing the high for my second ever Angel investment into an SPV with no institutional lead run by nval into
the notion seed round in 2016 so he you know I'm sure that was somewhere around 20 post and uh is now sitting at north of 10 billion and did did pretty well and I wonder if that SPV was the was the lead check or not because it's very
different if it's like oh there was well it said it had no institutional lead so it basically you know was the biggest his investor group was the biggest yeah um uh yeah I mean nal's like pretty coated as SPV Runner uh anyway let's
move on uh what comes after smartphones AI glasses you actually want to talk to says uh an midha uh we at Andre and Horwitz are excited to invest in sesame's mission to bring the computer to life ref back to Tech demo earlier in the show where uh you know somebody was
saying that this is the most herik moment that they've experienced other people were pushing back on it but uh I just like the domain sesame.com that's a good one yeah good a good one feels very you know it's very memorable yeah and
then it still ties to like this idea of like open sesame you're talking to a Genie in a lamp you have three wishes like there's like some fun lore there but it's still a word you can spell you can get the do it's this is a company that's competing directly with meta Ray
bands which is going to be tough because ASAP Rocky famed rapper I know style God yeah is working with Rayban and so re I saw Reggie was posting that I'm sure ASAP Rocky will then be working on the meta Ray bands Y and you'll see and they
have like crazy partnership with luoda for to bring in house all the Rayband stuff and uh and then obviously they're they're rolling out llama and all these different tools and that was one of the more attractive features of the meta Ray
bands when I experienced them was taking the dog for a walk and being able to just say hey hey meta what's you know like how old is this tree or something or whatever it's was like it was it was cool to be able to ask you know History
questions you're listening to a podcast and then you can just say hey meta like tell me more about this and it becomes more of a conversation anyway let's move on to Bridget Harris over at Founders fund uh she says demand for yield will send the stable stable coin Supply way
way higher finx are realizing stable coins are the best way to deliver yield to customers and it'll become status quo the same way cash back did once customers adjust to getting yield on everything it's hard to go back Latin America is the first mover here but
popular us-based fintech platforms are also starting to offer yield which consumers are increasingly recognizing as The New Normal right now coinbase automatically offers 4.1% API on any usdc held on their platform and there's
a bunch of other compan companies that are getting into the game into the stable coin game uh Robin Hood's mentioned and they're pushing uh a yeah different API for for subscribers apy for subscribers and so uh moving people into stable coin so crazy that bology
was formative and actually just making this category and now the market cap is the stable coin market cap is how many yeah uh well yeah 21 Co was was was his company he wanted to create a computer that could mine Bitcoin and also uh do a
bunch of other stuff with stable coins and micro payments using crypto and now uh the technolog is finally approaching reality uh the micro payments haven't really rolled out yet painful that one of the areas of crypto that has the strongest product Market fit you
couldn't really invest in the tokens themselves right yeah is one one well if you got into that deal they're making a ton of money they're printing money because they take a slice of the apy on top of it the yield uh but uh I mean it
also has to work better in a high rate environment right because uh how can you get high yield on usdc in a zero interest rate environment it's got to be land it to FCX they're going to try to make a 10x in a day you might lose it all well we
got some personel news Joe gbia the founder of op of Airbnb is moving on to Doge he says he's excited to share I'm bringing my designer brain and startup Spirit into the government my first project at doge is improving the slow and paper based retirement
process hilarious like that is a job that no one in his position would ever want has ever done has ever done I'm going to go be a a product manager for the government it's insane that PLL I love it thank you thank you for your
service like I 100% want a smoother uh and less paper-based retirement process this is fantastic since leaving his operating role at Airbnb in 2022 he's been looking for the next design uh challenge in the digital realm and he can think of a few more important uh he
and he says I can think of few more important ones than volunteering to improve the user experience within our government if anyone else in good standing wants to help design beautiful userfriendly digital products reach out and so he's going over to the office of
personnel management trying to uh smooth things over with good design and that makes a ton of sense I love it so cool to see and you've seen just like the flaws with uh like the the Medicare website to took all this time and like
whenever you interact with any government website you're just like this feels 20 years old like what's going on here and so just having someone in there who can you know staff a team of designers turn things around quickly actually Implement changes most people
haven't you know build a company like like Airbnb you know and they go they go into the the OPM yeah uh business other people's money yeah tot Joe said okay I'm going to go into the office of I'm going to go into the op M uh you know
sector the office of personnel management love it and uh you know make our country a better place to be and I mean it is crazy like like you think about his experience at Airbnb he wasn't just the co-founder who was there for a
couple years he was there all the way to 2022 so historic run 15 14 years something like that and then also everybody be operated at a scale that is actually somewhat relevant to the government you know it's like millions and millions of people they're dealing
with payments they're dealing with uh not maybe not Social Security numers but certainly kyc and've a lot of different tools here so great post congratulations to you Joe and good luck on your mission to improve uh the retirement workflow incredible uh
before we jump into the next post we got a uh request from Brandon jacobe we're gonna pull up a video right now that Zach just posted on his Instagram Ben's pulling it up do we doesn't have audio I don't think we need uh I don't think we
need audio oh look at this wow so Zu posted this on his Instagram oh my God this is incredible people who call the top on Zuck okay but wow but I live reaction I have no idea this is for I don't think Zuck can move like this I I think he's
flexing a new I don't think so I think he did it I think it's real look at yeah look at the jump yeah that's accurate the fingers count up everything looks good they're having a blast he's singing this is amazing where is this he's doubling down birthday or something
something like that wow what an amazing amazing post I love it okay I'm you know you you know in China that would get you in prison did you see uh that would get for sure so he says your wife only turns 40 once there we go uh wait what what song is he
singing This is incredible here I'm gonna pull up the audio real quick react it's so good um yeah Jack Ma did something similar okay so he's lip syncing okay that's great still yeah Jack ma did the Rockstar thing on stage and shortly
after kind of disappeared literally because it was like people were like okay he's becoming like a god like people are like woring him credit to zck he practiced that to a degree that he oh yeah he looked yeah like a real The Perfect Blend of robot and bro clearly
tested it to totally mogging all the people that said oh they were trying to do a poly Market on if he was going to get divorced this year or not remember fake news on that back and yeah I mean I think gamblers are in shambles I think
he did the right thing you know there's a lot of questions about like oh should he back off the Bro stuff no double down go crazier keep it going I mean this is sophisticated and wholesome stuff you're 40th you're going to put on this
incredible show she's going to remember that forever yep uh the the PR team behind this must be paid so well it's like this clearly came from him let him cook let him cook the blue I love it that's great that's fun anyway uh let's move on to some uh reports from
altimer uh from shio monot incredible early vintages from Al ultimiter VC funds uh wonder how much of total returns are from Snowflake they led the series see a $260 million Post in 2015 that stake was worth 4.4 billion at the
IPO let's do a little size gong for Al boom thank you BC is a power law game and they crushed it on snow wild that Brad started with just $3 million in 2008 R that's insane ran it up uh 61% net irr $6.5 billion realized on 2.8 billion in cap committed Capital they
got a bunch of funds here there're a lot of Rippers and uh it's great stuff Brad is just such a cool guy too I ran into him at my local coffee shop he spends he's a surfer so he spends some time in Malibu and uh you know walked up to him
said hi we're in a handful of companies in the same companies but um just such a such a cool downto Earth dude who has a has been on an absolute Terror he had a rough go with the hedge fund sure in 2022 I think it was when the market sold off cred people were
like is over um but uh that's the game and the interest rates went up and obviously if you're highly into Tech you're going to get burned I and I feel like as as journalists like newcomer started leaking performance this is a great time if
you're an investor to leak your screenshots oh look at this look at this screens actually oh oh please don't share this please don't share that I have 61% net irr on billion of dollars you know I would hate for that to get to get loose um anyway anyways let's move
on to uh Nick who posts a screenshot of Jeff Bezos liking his post you know you gotta you gotta do some engagement bait for the billionaires that are hanging out on X all day uh Nick apparently posted news Amazon just dropped their first Quantum Computing chip code named
ocelot we are so back that could have been me posting that but you know Nick got to it first he got the Bezos like and I wanted to break this down a little bit it's in the journal today Amazon unveils its first Quantum Computing chip
we heard this from Google a couple months ago uh Google in December said it developed a new chip called Willow and that really at that moment the people that were watching Quantum Computing closely we're like okay this is a breakthrough where're we're now starting
to accelerate the development here and then of course earlier this week we covered uh Sai Nadella on dwar cash Patel announcing the majorana chip um and they claimed a Quantum Computing breakthrough by creating a new state of
matter now Amazon's in the game uh their cloud computing business on Thursday unveiled its first ever Quantum Computing chip which claims marks which it claims marks an important step in the development of useful reliable quantum
computers that's what we want folks uh the chip dubbed ocelot can lower the costs of reducing Quantum Computing Errors By up to 90% Amazon said uh and there's and the race is on everyone wants to build a pra practical quantum computer uh the Amazon ocelot ship is a
prototype not a full-blown Quantum system uh said Oscar painter head of quantum hardware for AWS To Be Honest John I'm a little bit frustrated we were prepping our Quantum chip launch we got kind of edged out by this Saia goes on
our cash y uh you know even uh even Google's working on one they've got Willow they're teasing that we kind of got beat to the punch but I want to let people know we're still in the game uh Ben has been working on it while we record he's been working Quantum ship he
was he never actually had his wisdom teeth removed he actually grinding he was actually grinding reducing Quantum noise y yeah and this is going to change podcasting you I mean you start compressing our audio feed with a quantum computer it's going to be super
high fidelity the the best takes possible anyway let's move on Mike Taylor says I may have underestimated the power of my product appearing in an every post rip my calendar 30 onboarding calls booked in 24 hours little 15minute
slots the guy is slammed his product's ripping uh and congratulations to him have you ever had a calendar booked like this on a single day I have remember I remember having this exact calendar setup the my son was uh born on a Saturday and my calendar looked like
this on Monday was kind of brutal yeah I don't recommend that but I'm sure Sam Al uh Sam Alman look like that this week too so sometimes you just got to do it you know yeah you got to you got to be in a certain frame of mind to really
deliver and bring the same pitch you know 50 times back to back to back to back to back back to back back 15 minute segments but you probably get really good at your pitch if you do that and you get the Reps in you learn what works
what resonates what doesn't how to talk how to let talk I've done this you know not not in a you know sort of micromanaging way but portfolio companies where they'd say like oh like we're not creating sales momentum it's like cool screen share your calendar I'm
like you're talking with you're talking with like two customers a day yeah you should be talking you're never you're never going to actually be a top deile company from a growth standpoint unless you have some crazy product Le uh growth
motion uh unless you have this extreme volume because it really is just um you know should should be obvious but it's just a numbers game if if he has a 10% hit rate but he's doing 20 calls a day great adding he's going to be getting you know significant amount of traction
from this so six minutes left we're going through some quick bangers I will read them you give me your take let's start with Morgan Barrett big night for hardtech in California in America at Valar atomics so proud of Isaiah Taylor
they had a big announcement last night looked like something out of a sci-fi movie what was your take Jordy um uh anyways uh this was absolutely wild I didn't know what to think we we we got invited but uh could make it uh it it's it seriously would be easier for
us to get to Austin than that side of town right now yep uh but uh what a show an absolute showman yeah uh I was pissed because I feel like he really upstaged us on the production value like we're the ones that bring in the Hollywood
designers and create elaborate sets and his set was way above what we people say oh you guys have such a nice set yep and uh not anymore he's making us look atomics is the one that cool so anyway congrats to the team over there uh let's move on to uh uh lowan
Banger from Rob davit he says high yield Harry City when it comes to accidentally sending people money and it's just a dunk and it's a dunk reel and uh I don't know if you read this story it's in the journal today City Group almost made a81 trillion
mistake they accidentally moved to transfer 81 trillion to a customer yes trillion a bank employee mistakenly entered the absurdly high figure last year while trying to manually input a transfer to a client's escrow account despite the fact do they have 81
trillion uh uh that seems a little bit well the annual GDP of the United States is around 25 trillion so no Jordy I don't think so no but I just like uh yeah what what is like just to put this in perspective yep they they I'm assuming they
have what uh they have billions I'm sure but not hundreds of billions yeah maybe uh and so there's a couple different examples of uh the fat finger transfer Could Happen uh is a lesson of technical that go through would it appear on the
customer screen oh you now have I have seen that happen I've had friends who have said like oh some Bank air happened and for a moment I had you know a couple billion dollars in my account because they messed it up and then they reverse
it of course so it's all fake yeah all the money's fake all the money's fake the money's in the computer I talked to a hedge fund guy who actually said like there's money in the real world and there's money in computer he's like and the computer
money like that's the stuff that goes up and down or something like that it was a really funny thing anyway uh if you're trying to make $81 trillion you got to start a hedge fund you got to go on public.com investing for those that take it seriously they got multi-asset
investing industry-leading yields and they're trusted by millions and they're not going to send 811 trillion to anyone accidentally they run a tight ship over there um let's go to ni over at default they announced a $4 million new funding
round from abbc we covered it here on the show and they did this launch which I know you'll have something to say about uh they sent out 100 branded champagne bottles in custom pelican cases and Tom Osman says solid sponsor
for TBN TBH what' you think uh on a long on a long enough time Horizon we will work with every champagne company right we you know as long as it's truly champagne from the Champagne region of France uh but this was a story I actually heard this from Sam blonde uh
he was at yeah didn't didn't they do he at zenitz and then uh bra I think and he said that one of the things that worked really well was sending people champagne uh he was in sales because you're not giving them a beverage you're giving
them a moment yeah a moment that they can take home and then they open it with their wife and they think about it and they're having fun or something or their team there's a lot of different way we never we always offer champagne to Ben yeah yes yes anyway we covered this
earlier on the show and Mike Maples responded we talked about his amazing BMW Z8 he says TV panners glad you like the Z8 I actually fell in love with it when BMW showed the zo the z7 concept back in the late 90s at the time I lived
in Austin and the local dealer wouldn't even take my deposit because they were sold out instantly so I called around and found a dealership in sheveport Louisiana willing to let me buy their allocation in 20 1 I've had it ever since and it's probably the one car I'd
never sell cheers we got to have him on the show we got to ask him what other cars he owns what El what cars would he sell y you know but uh fantastic car and thanks for replying Mike uh we'd love to have you on the show come chat about
cars uh I've never driven the Z8 but I've heard really good things about it everyone talks true classic yeah so thanks for engaging Mike we'd love to have you chat about cars you're welcome to come in call in anytime uh let's go
to Reva she says looking to hire a chief of staff We have basically a minute till we're starting to well we got some promoted posts we got we got Reva she's hiring a chief of staff trying the usual agencies recruiters but struggling to
find someone viby so if you're looking for a chief of staff go work for Reva who else we got uh we got some merch let's save some of these for Monday okay yeah we'll save some John's got an incredible podcasters high right now I I don't want to stop I want to stop well
we got we got one more we got one more we got to do is an ad we we we we got to do this so it was Steve Jobs birthday on Monday and bezel replied to us and said he's a minimalist watch King and in here he's uh he's wearing a beautiful Seiko
uh and I love that bezel we text them all the time can you clock this watch and that's why we wanted to run an ad for bezel today go to I know I know Brandon jacobe is listening right now and I think he's one of the biggest Steve Jobs uh fans that I know glazers
Brandon I expect you to be in a Steve Jobs Seiko on bezel send us send us scen andat on the Fant over 22 22,500 luxury watches they're fully authenticated inous by bezel team of experts that's a great place to end the show actually the the
real place to end the show uh is uh Sarah was was watching from home and she commented in the chat and said you have 12 years she's 28 right now so she was referencing toar Lear the song uh anyways um great great day of timeline today through timeline we're trying to
do more timeline we there's a lot of news to cover but we're trying to do yeah we want to make sure the Pod is snackable so thank you for tuning in with us on a Friday we are going to jump over uh to the pmf or die stream and
Grill Patty and Blake on uh what did what they got done this week uh they've certainly been busy and uh we are excited to uh Grill them so anyways have a great weekend Brothers uh we will see you on Monday see you on Monday thanks for thanks for watching for