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Today is Monday, March 10th, 2025.
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We are live from the Temple of Technology, the fortress of finance, the capital of capital. This show starts now.
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We got a great show for you today.
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We are under attack, folks.
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Hackers have been attacking.
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They've seen what we've been doing with this show.
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They know it's too powerful. They're coming for you. They're coming for us.
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They came for the whole platform. Be afraid. What is going on?
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Elon Elon says it's a cyber attack by a nation state.
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We have we do have some We have a post. We already printed it.
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It went up and we printed it immediately.
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Uh Elon says there was there was slash still is a massive cyber attack against X.
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Uh we get attacked every day, but this was done with a lot of resources.
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Either a large coordinated group or a country is involved.
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He's tracing it and then someone in the comments says they want to silence you and this platform and he says yes. So we know the truth.
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This platform, we are part of this platform.
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They're trying to silence us.
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Uh but we can't be stopped. We're still streaming. We're still live.
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We're still reading posts out loud.
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But first, we got to talk about this weekend.
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I went skiing in Lake Tahoe. It was fantastic.
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And we wanted to break down what's going on.
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If you haven't followed, the market's in turmoil. It's in freef fall.
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And we have a thesis for what's for what's going on.
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And we have a bunch of evidence to back this up. We do. We do.
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What are we calling it, folks? Uh the yard sale. The yard sale. It's a yard sale.
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So, for those that don't know, yard sale is when you're skiing and you have you have a a bad enough accident that all of your gear basically just gets it rejected off of your body and both skis and and oftentimes the helmet, goggles, and gloves. Yeah. Exactly.
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And so they get spread out over the mountain when you have to go look.
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Everything's laid out for you.
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Today is don't check your public account. Yep.
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Just don't even look at it. Just watch. Uh stay stay with us.
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But it's maybe it's a good day to teach people about dollar cost averaging. Yeah. Right.
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And not trying to time the markets. Never worked.
2:05
So that's what we'll be talking about. Yeah.
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I actually have to when when uh when Nvidia after DeepSeek announcement, Nvidia went down uh tremendously. I was down 15%.
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I just, you know, instantly bought it. Yep.
2:20
I'm I'm guessing I've ran country. Yeah, for sure.
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But for a minute there for about a month, I look like you look genius. I look like a genius.
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Okay, so we but but anyway, so this is John's working theory.
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He was skiing this weekend.
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He's sort of figured this out.
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But the the yard the yard sale thesis. Yeah, the yard sale.
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What What is the What is the genesis of it?
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Talk to the audience about it.
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So the yard sale thesis is essentially as everyone knows during ski season, all the greatest capital allocators in the world head to the slopes.
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They're sitting on ski lifts.
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And what's unique about ski lifts, it's almost it's very much like a sauna uh in that there are there's no one that's eavesdropping on you.
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There's not a lot of technology around. People can speak freely.
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And you also ran wind up with somewhat random people, but everyone's kind of in the same millu because they're all paying $2,000 a day to ski at some Icon Pass or Epic Pass location.
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And so I don't know about 2,000.
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Are you talking about room and board and and everything?
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I mean, I'm pretty sure the lift tickets are like over 600 now a day for like a one day thing. So, yeah.
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So, so, so there's this filter that basically says, you know, there's this economic floor that basically you have to be a capital allocator to get on the slopes these days with the prices where they are.
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Uh, but that creates a lot of of random chance interactions between folks who have different insights into different pieces of the market. And they're moving size.
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They're moving size for sure.
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And they're speaking freely because they're just like, I'm up here. I'm cold.
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I'm trying to just bond with someone on this ski lift.
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And I'm not worried I'm being eaves dropped on because I'm not in an office.
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I'm not I'm not at a crowded coffee shop.
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I'm on a I'm on a ski chair lift.
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And so uh so the rumors start flying.
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The rumor mill happens on on the ski lift.
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And if you'll see at the end of the ski lift, there's always a sign that says tips up.
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This is like this is like put the stock tips away guys because you don't want the stock tips going out once you're once you're off the ski.
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the ski. You want to keep you don't want them you don't want to be getting a notification that says the market is down% tips up tips up and so and the other thing the other factor is even on gondilas yeah there's a big issue where let's say you're skiing with a buddy you get on a gondola maybe it's a sixp
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person gondola everybody's got their goggles on their helmets couple you know two guys think they're just having a regular conversation they don't know that somebody that has 10 billion of aum is two seats over picking that up and trading this this happened to me I because I would get on I in full gear. You couldn't tell who I was and and I
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You couldn't tell who I was and and I would overhear people saying, "Oh, there's like TBPN.
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It's like the biggest thing.
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Like, it's the best thing ever.
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Like, it's taking over the world."
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I wish they did 7 days a week. Yeah.
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A lot of people were saying like, "I used to be a podcaster.
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I'm actually shutting down because of what's going on with."
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So, but they probably wouldn't have said that if if they knew that I was sitting right there.
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So, that those types of conversations because they don't know you're 68. Yeah. Yeah. Exactly.
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There's not that many 68 people skiing if they Yeah.
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If they knew you were 68, but you're sitting down all the time on the show, so it's hard to tell. Yeah. Exactly.
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So, uh, so there's a lot of there's a lot of stock tips flying around and you know, sometimes someone has a little tip.
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Hey, maybe Silicon Valley Bank isn't so hot.
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You hear it on the ski chair.
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You go, you take out a short position.
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One thing leads to another and the whole company collapses.
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Uh, but you think we're crazy.
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You think this is some weird thing that, oh, really there should just be like the average amount of financial collapses and frauds are discovered during ski season, right?
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It's only a couple months.
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But we have a list here for you of financial frauds that happened during ski season.
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And when you hear this list, you're going to start believing in the yard sale, the yard sale theory of finance.
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You're going to believe us because look, Black Monday, the global stock market crashed.
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Right when the mountains around the mountain, October 19th, 1987, the Dow Jones plunges 22. 6% in a single day. Yep.
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Like I mean yeah it was probably early early snow but it was it was you know often times the mountain's not open to everyone.
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You got to have a special relationship you know be you know exactly and uh and and so the only people that would even be skiing then are the most important allocators for the heaviest uh the bearings bank collapse February 16th. I mean ski season.
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There's no other way to explain this other than and this was a 20 233 year old UKbased merchant bank.
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They failed after a rogue traders unauthorized losses.
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Those those losses 830 million bankrupted the firm.
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Those could have been hidden for months more.
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But of course rumor mill comes out on the ski lift and boom gone dead.
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February we got to figure out more about this because it's a 233y old company and one dude goes rogue.
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Oh there's a movie about it. It's great.
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Maybe because he wasn't invited on a ski trip. He was in Singapore. They don't ski there. Yeah. Yeah.
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That's probably what happened. Wow. Yeah. Yeah.
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The rest of the firm back in the UK was going to Switzerland and he he got a was it did they even have email in uh so he gets an email. He says it's I know.
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I think they might they might have faxes but not many emails. 95.
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That's like right on the cusp of email. Yeah. Well, speaking of email.
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com crash March 10th, 2000 that that's actually 25 years ago today.
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It became by the 2000s it was ubiquitous. Yeah.
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Mid mid 90s they were definitely using.
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So he probably sent an email to a client auto or not a client his coworker auto response. Yep.
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Hey in Switzerland this weekend skiing with the firm and he realized that he just goes rogue. He just goes rogue.
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He's like I I I I I I got to make more money because I got to be able to get on these ski trips. Yeah.
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That's for sure what's happening.
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So bankrupts his 233y old company.
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It is the Can you believe it's the 25 year anniversary of the dot crash March 10th 2000? Wow.
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There was a 78% index drop by 20 by 2002.
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Just total total sell-off.
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And everyone's like, "Oh, it's so telling like there's a minor drop today.
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It's, you know, forecast."
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Uh but it does feel like that. Feels crazy today.
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Anyway, um Enron scandal December 2nd, 2001.
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The Argentine economic crisis in December of 2001. Yep. The Parmalot bankruptcy.
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The Enron of Europe December 24th, 2003. Early ski season.
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Pre Christmas dairy giant.
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Bear Sterns collapsed during ski season.
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Bernie Maidoff was discovered during ski season.
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You know that that has to be a ski season tip, right?
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That that has chairlift tip all over.
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Somebody said, "Hey, I tried to, you know, pull my funds out." Yeah.
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He said, uh, you know, give me give me a few years.
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Theronos was discovered March 14th.
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Gosh, you know, John Keroo was probably on the slopes picking something up from some investor who passed and saw the saw the data room.
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Uh, the CO 19 market crash.
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I mean, really, clearly really the fault of ski season.
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Ever Grand, FTX, SVB, and Credit Swiss all happened during ski season.
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So that last one makes total sense because I'm sure that deal this was a rescue but I'm sure that deal was getting done in Switzerland on the slopes.
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So it's one of those things the the catalyst for these crashes are happening on the slopes and then the fix is also happening on the slopes right so it's for sure you know interesting scenario for sure anyways did you get any did you get any tips this weekend?
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Uh, not not too many tips.
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Just the usual like rare fish, rare birds, you know, uh, perpetual alpha.
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Putting uh, buying mice in a 5 to1 female tomale ratio and releasing them in your competitor's Yeah. office. That just the usual.
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A lot of people on your trip were probably doing that years ago. Exactly. Exactly.
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It's kind of priced in at this point.
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Uh, mo most competitors have have mice defenses at this point. It's priced in. Yeah.
10:06
I heard there's a rumor that there's a firm building a Godzillaized humanoid robot and uh sort of shaking up the market going Pacific Rim mode.
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Yeah, I mean it's part of why Tesla's down.
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Um uh Tesla this year uh at least Tesla is down over 36% in the last month.
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And some people are saying it's because somebody came out and they're making a a humanoid a humanoid that's a hundred times bigger than Optimus.
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Uh and uh so anyways, market obviously pricing that in. Yeah.
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I mean the real the real risk is the dripped out humanoid, right?
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As soon as someone puts it in Balenciaga in Balenciaga, then it's truly over. Yeah.
10:55
Uh yeah, speaking of it's over, I have a funny post here from David Holes, founder of MidJourney.
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Uh he's quote tweeting Intel that just tweeted AI and then he quote tweets it and says it's over. It's so it really is.
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They they they didn't quite topic it but they they they they marked like the last sort of potentially the the dying breath of the bull market.
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It's it's pretty powerful like if you're running that brand like and you're self-aware and you understand that by by you're going to like the read on you posting that is going to be top. Yep.
11:29
Maybe you should move Intel's entire treasury into a short position and then tweet AI.
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Yeah, that's a really powerful move.
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Yeah, you need to make a quick buck.
11:39
You're not really making much out of semiconductors anymore.
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Intel is saying chipsack going away.
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We need a different source of capital for this.
11:46
Yeah, become a hedge fund.
11:46
Yeah, just know that that by by being extremely cringe on the timeline, you can move the market. Intel. Yeah, they did it. They did it. They did it. They did it.
11:56
Anyway, uh should we move on to some of these uh some of these more serious stories? It is it is interesting.
12:02
interesting. Uh uh I'm sure somebody out there has a ridiculous conspiracy theory that requires a tinfoil hat that basically says that uh if you were a hedge fund that was needing to unwind a lot of positions and you knew that like
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a lot of trading activity was catalyzed by like general you the retail traders are on X being like what is happening like the market's down and you needed to unwind like one if you needed like an to buy you know uh yeah uh cause turmoil just just take down X. You start you
12:32
You start you know unwinding those positions. Interesting.
12:36
Um totally uh probably uh you know unrealistic but uh it's funny to think about. Yeah. Yeah. Interesting.
12:44
Uh I mean my my experience on X today has not been that bad.
12:47
I've been seeing most most things.
12:48
I feel like you said it's really bad for you. Terrible. Yeah.
12:52
But uh maybe they're targeting you because you're too powerful.
12:54
But I think it could be they're they they could be faking it one to elevate their brand.
13:00
and we're so important that a nation state would attack us.
13:02
And two, that's faking it. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.
13:04
And two, to remind us how good the app is. Yeah. Yeah.
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And to say like we can take this away at any time. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.
13:09
Pony up an extra $10 a month.
13:11
I still I still think the leading theory is they're coming after us. Yeah.
13:16
Um anyway, uh China autonomous agent Manis changes everything article in Can we can we create a Forbes Manuse?
13:27
I'm going to call it Manuse.
13:29
Manuse I mean Manis Manis I don't know we should probably I think you're right that it's anyway there's a profile in uh in the Forbes about some shaking up the timeline last week.
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Why don't we read through it and then I have some other supporting posts.
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Uh one recent evening in Shenzhen a group of software engineers gathered in a dimly lit co-working space.
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You know you're in the journalistic trenches when you're writing about dimly lit co-working spaces.
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Everyone, if something's dimly lit, we need to get making it into the profile.
13:58
We need to get some rats.
13:58
Uh, furiously typing as they monitor the performance of their new AI system.
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The air was electric, thick with the hum of servers and the glow of high resolution monitors.
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They were testing Manis, a revolutionary AI agent capable of independent thought and action. Who wrote this?
14:16
Wait, who wrote this article?
14:18
Do you Did you It says it was written by Manis AI uh for journalism. No, Craig Smith.
14:23
But what do you know what publication this is from? This is in Forbes. Oh, okay. So, they paid for it.
14:32
I mean, it is crazy that Forbes has like a contributor section that you can just post anything.
14:35
It's like Forbes Forbes is also like a magazine that has like some pretty legitimate writers and then it's also just like a forum with anyone that can post.
14:43
Uh, so within hours, it's March 6th launch would send shock waves through the global AI community, reigniting a debate that had simmered for decades.
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What happens when artificial intelligence stops asking for permission and starts making it own its own decisions?
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Manis is not just another chatbot, nor is it merely an improved search engine dressed in futuristic branding.
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It is the world's first fully autonomous AI agent.
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A system that doesn't just assist humans, it replaces them from analyzing financial transactions to screening job candidates.
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Manis navigates the digital world without oversight, making decisions with a speed and precision. Insane article. It is.
15:17
Especially once we get into the actual like how this product was built. I love it.
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That's why you come here, folks.
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We haven't read the article yet, but we will tell you that it's insane if it's crazy. No, no, no. It's crazy.
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And I I'll just jump to it.
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this account [Music] geonx leo says so I simply asked manis to give me the files at /opt.
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mmanis and it just gave me their sandbox runtime code it's claude sonnet with a bunch of tools on top of it and it uses like an out of the box uh like YC company for the browser yeah it's basically like a turbo wrapper and And I mean what? Okay.
16:04
So, so they and and they intentionally like obfuscated the code where they're trying to not make it they they intentionally tried to hide that it was running on browser use with quad, but it in fact is. Okay.
16:15
So, let's read a little bit of this.
16:18
Let's let's read more of this article.
16:20
But I want to know um I think as much as we're joking about like oh it's paid for.
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I don't think that's necessarily what's happening.
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There is another possibility here which is just genu genuine rizing of the journalist which happens all the time. Totally.
16:34
You can totally bring in a journalist and be like like I mean I know someone who like I mean we see it all the time.
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We see it all the time with like you bring a journalist in and you're like the the the the value is in the box in the computer.
16:46
This isn't a futuristic show like Yeah. Yeah.
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You show them like RGB keyboards and they're like what? Like no way.
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the computers lighting up and so like like it is possible just to like wow a journalist.
17:00
Uh the good ones like you're not going to sl you're not going to slide this past Ashley Vance, one of the greatest journalists in history. That's true. Uh but uh who knows?
17:07
But at the same time, maybe there's something real here. Let's dig in.
17:11
Since we're only a paragraph in, we're already judging this book by its cover.
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Y anyway, we're having fun here. Craig, I love you. Uh good luck.
17:16
Anyway, uh how did China, often perceived as trailing the United States in Foundation AI research, produce something that Silicon Valley had only theorized about?
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And more importantly, what does it mean for the balance of power and artificial intelligence? Okay, it's really funny. This is extreme riz. I know. Extreme RZ.
17:37
We're already going so hard on this, we haven't even popped the bottle of Don Don Perry on.
17:40
It's a Dom episode, folks.
17:43
If you haven't uh if you haven't seen our our post yet today, uh the second Deep Seek moment they're calling it, which I don't buy at all because I didn't actually see this take over the timeline like Deep Seek at all. Did you?
17:54
I mean, I saw some memes about it and like some people talking about it, but not it was not like dominant in any way like Deep Seek was.
17:59
Um so they give some backtory on Deep Seek moment, by the way.
18:03
So the this article is called China's autonomous agent Manis changes everything built, you know, entirely on on US uh technology.
18:10
technology and then Techrunch.
18:13
Techrunch uh Anthropics in the UK, right? Aren't they?
18:16
Wait, why do I think Why do I think they're a European company? I don't know. Anyway, you were skiing.
18:23
Maybe you banged your head. John John has had this.
18:25
They just have like they just have like a European aesthetic to them, I guess.
18:29
Yeah, they do have a state of mind, but I think they might literally be in San Francisco. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.
18:32
But then Techrunch publishes an article that says Manis probably isn't China's second Deep Seek moment. Okay. Wait. Oh, Techrunch did. Okay. Techrunch and Axio.
18:42
Axios, who's always sort of very bearish on tech, says, "New Chinese AI agent draws deep sea comparison."
18:50
Maybe they were referencing. Well, that's true.
18:52
Like that's that's like literally what happened.
18:55
Um uh but Manis represents something entirely different.
18:57
It's not just another model.
18:59
It's an autonomous agent, an AI system that thinks, plans, executes tasks independently, capable of navigating the real world as seamlessly as a human intern with an unlimited attention span.
19:08
And so I mean I guess if you're a Forbes reader and you've never heard of an AI agent, this is like informative.
19:12
Uh Manis is unique in its ability to deliver end toend results across diverse domains without human prompts.
19:18
While most other AI systems require some level of human input or operate within narrower scopes, Manis acts independently offering a seamless self-directed experience.
19:24
I mean there is something real about autonomous agents and stuff like it just depends on you know how far are we going with this because they're like it doesn't require any input and they're like if you tell it to do this it will do it.
19:34
It's like well that's an input right?
19:36
Um, autonomous agents already exist in narrow domains. Think trading. Wow, typo.
19:42
Trading BTO's clearly trading bots. This was hammered out.
19:45
I guess they didn't, but you know, it's not AI. You know, it's not AI.
19:49
That's the beauty of this.
19:51
You know, maybe maybe this entire article, my respect for this article just went through the roof.
19:54
Uh, but Manis multi- aent architecture enhances its ability to manage complex workflows by deploying specialized sub aents for various tasks. That's pretty cool.
20:05
uh a feature not yet standard in most autonomous AI systems.
20:09
I don't know if that if that's actually true.
20:10
I think there are sub agents in in some systems.
20:13
Um but anyway, well this entire article is written like they they took all the talking points from a PR team and just wrote it out.
20:22
I mean this is an open secret that like companies write Forbes articles sometimes. Yeah.
20:27
But it's not as open as it should be I guess. Yeah.
20:30
Uh this is what sets Mannis apart from its Western counterparts.
20:34
While chatgptt 4 and Google gemini rely on human prompts to guide them, uh manis doesn't wait for instructions.
20:40
Instead, it is designed to initiate tasks on its own, assess new information, and dynamically adjust its approach.
20:44
Uh for instance, given a zip file of rums, Manis doesn't just rank candidates.
20:47
It reads through each one, extracts relevant skills, cross references them with job market trends, and presents a fully optimized hiring decision.
20:55
It's funny because OpenAI could have come out with operator and done exactly this 100%.
21:00
But they would be over because it would be it would justn't work. Exactly.
21:04
Everyone would be like, "Oh my god."
21:04
So, I will actually be highly impressed with Manis and give them credit if we can see evidence of American users being like, "This is super valuable. Totally.
21:12
I'm using this for XYZ task." Yeah.
21:15
Like m maybe maybe operator needs a puff piece like this like to actually break through.
21:21
That'd be that'd be good. Just Yeah.
21:23
The only thing standing between operator and world dominance is a Forbes. Yeah. Yeah. Let's call Sam.
21:28
Hey, uh you know, quit the going direct stuff.
21:31
Quit quit the quit the beef.
21:33
You just need puff pieces from here on out. Time to puff. Time to puff.
21:40
Yeah, we need the inverse Lulu. Don't go direct. Just just puff. Pure puff.
21:42
Uh anyway, Manis operates like an executive overseeing a team of specialized sub agents. Probably cool and good.
21:51
This is called the multi-agent architecture.
21:54
I think this is going to be a real trend.
21:57
It's cloud-based asynchronous operation is another game changer. Game changer. I love it.
22:03
Traditional AI assistants need a user's active engagement. Manis does not.
22:05
It runs in ta its tasks in the background, pinging users only when results are ready.
22:11
Much like a hyperefficient employee who never requires micromanagement.
22:14
I want I want Scott Woo from Cognition on the show so badly right now because he's been building on this. Yeah. Yeah.
22:22
I'll I'll I'll text him and see if he can come on because like he's probably reading this being like he's not reading this.
22:30
He's not He's not reading this. Let's be honest.
22:32
The only article you should be reading in Forbes this week is Justin Mars, the Broth King. Yes.
22:38
Who will be coming will be coming on the show on Thursday. Yeah, that's great.
22:41
Uh, so we love Forbes, but that's like an actual Forbes article that was like a profile with a real writer.
22:47
That was like went and hung out with him. Yeah.
22:49
Instead of just like took the took the talking points and printed them.
22:53
You just managed you just managed to make this article. Okay. Uh, here. Let's go to Rowan.
22:57
Rowan Chung, a tech writer who tested Manis by asking it to write a biography of himself and build a personal website.
23:02
Within minutes, the agent had scrapes social media, extracted professional highlights, generated a neatly formula formatted biography, coded a functional website, and deployed it online.
23:10
It even troubleshot hosting issues without ever asking for additional input.
23:14
That's a pretty cool use case if that's if that's doable.
23:18
Um, no, that that is the real potential of this technology and it's amazing and people are going to do it.
23:25
Yeah, I I only have issues with how it's being framed. Yeah.
23:28
A shock to Silicon Valley system.
23:30
For years, the dominant AI narrative has centered around large US tech firms, OpenAI, Google, Meta developing more powerful versions of their language models.
23:37
The assumption was that whoever built the most sophisticated chatbot would control the future of AI.
23:43
Manis disrupts that assumption.
23:45
It is not just an improvement over existing AI.
23:46
It's a new category of intelligence shifting the focus from passive assistance to self-directed action.
23:52
and it is entirely Chinese-built.
23:55
It has triggered a new wave of unease in Silicon Valley where AI leaders have quietly acknowledged that China's aggressive push into autonomous systems could give it a first mover advantage in critical sectors.
24:08
Like break out the I was going to say break out the dom because I just want to distract myself from this terrible article, but uh ridiculous. Uh anyways, continue.
24:19
Yet Mannis raises profound ethical and regulatory questions.
24:21
What happens when an AI agent makes financial decisions that cost a company millions?
24:26
Or when it executes a command incorrectly, leading to real world consequences, who is responsible when an autonomous system trained to act without oversight, makes the wrong call.
24:32
Well, it's the person that initiated the uh the system very clearly.
24:36
Um, but I'm sure there'll be plenty of legal court cases around that.
24:40
Chinese regulators historically are more willing to experiment with AI deployment, yet have out but have yet to outline clear guard rails for AI autonomy.
24:47
Meanwhile, Western regulators fac. Yep.
24:54
Or it's pretty simple guardrails. Yeah.
24:56
Uh, the era of autonomous AI agents has begun and China is leading the charge.
25:00
The rest of us need to rethink what it means to work, create, and compete in a world where intelligence is no longer a uniquely human asset.
25:09
Last line is what you got. The last line's fair.
25:11
I think that's that's the only Yeah.
25:13
only sentence that I didn't have to put in fair lines in there.
25:18
It's not all it's not all junk.
25:19
Anyway, yeah, there's another reaction the guy Philip Schmid from the a he's at Google deep mind. So, he's conflicted.
25:30
So he said hype verse reality it's built on anthropic claude sonnet not their own foundation model has access to 29 tools and uses browser uh browser use which is a browser control product u the user communicates with the exeutor agent and not the planner and other agent.
25:52
Each user gets an isolated sandbox environment and it outperforms OpenAI deep research on the GIA benchmark.
26:01
And his his take is building AI products doesn't require training your own foundation model.
26:04
We're probably just scratching the surface of what existing models can do with the right tooling and integration.
26:09
And this was the big point.
26:11
I think it was Sarah Guo who was saying this where like even if all the models just like ceased to get smarter and there's still so much low hanging fruit. Yeah.
26:21
low hanging fruit. Yeah. still hanging fruit ashen Brener like the unhobblings like you need to give it access to Python you need to give it access to the web browser you need to give it access to databases and once it has that it's going to perform so much better it is funny that I mean this whole narrative would be so much so much stronger if
26:35
they were using deepseek then it would really feel like oh wow like you know like like the ch yeah yeah it might be two different Chinese companies and they might be built on they might be a deepseek rapper but it's like there's something serious going on over there in China this is like kind of silly that they built it on on claude but I I guess they got to go with the best. I mean,
26:51
I mean, it's kind of a bare signal for Deep Seek, too. Yeah. Odd. Yeah.
26:54
Anyway, should we pop this bottle of Don Perryon? Uh, let's do it.
27:00
If you if if you're not following along, we open a bottle of Don Perryon every time we double the show.
27:11
You don't need You don't need to cut away from that.
27:14
We open a bottle of Don Perry.
27:16
every time we double the show's audience and size.
27:18
We've been on an absolute tear lately if you haven't been following.
27:22
Uh we crossed uh 16,000 uh followers.
27:25
This was a this was a while ago at this point. It was a while ago.
27:28
We we there was a lot going on.
27:28
We were doing guests, so we didn't have a lot of time to actually uh do a proper Dom episode.
27:34
Um but those who have been with us from the start have seen uh four or five at this point.
27:40
So, the next one the next one is going to be at 32K and we just made a new higher which we haven't formally announced yet, but I think we're going to hit that 32K mark uh fairly quickly with where things are going. Thank you, sir.
27:52
And every time I open the DOM, it goes everywhere. That's part of life. It is. It's part of champagne. It is. John, cheers to you. Cheers to the show. Cheers.
28:05
It really is going fantastically.
28:06
Uh we like to say that uh exponential growth is the most powerful force in the world. Cheers. And uh delicious.
28:15
And also um Ben, do you want some?
28:19
The only the only thing you should uh stay locked in. Stay locked in. Staying locked in. Uh yeah.
28:26
And and and the only alcohol you should drink is Don Perion. Correct. Um I stand by that. Yeah.
28:30
Uh well, let's move on to another AI story.
28:33
Sam Alolman's other startup is building an app to compete with Elon Musk's X.
28:38
Talk about they are competing in every possible realm.
28:42
Now, uh this is Yeah, this is just Yeah. Yeah.
28:48
This of Open AI imagines a future where you'll where you'll constantly demonstrate that you're not a robot.
28:53
His everything app is the answer, but first he needs to look deep into your eyes.
28:59
From Christopher Mims, an actually great journalist. love Christopher Mims.
29:02
Um, MIM and uh, yeah, this is obviously built on top of Worldcoin, the eyeball scanner.
29:09
Very controversial, but at the same time, there's a ton of bots.
29:11
I don't know if you saw Nikita Beer talking about this, uh, over the weekend. Yep.
29:14
Saying like, you know, anytime you get some weird reply, just Google a person's name, see No, not even weird, just any reply. Reply. Yeah.
29:20
See if they're a real person.
29:23
Oh, the the the interesting uh uh relevant example to this was there was a woman that just was hyping Manis just over and over and over super aggressively.
29:33
Uh this woman named Jen Zoo and I she says she's an investor. She has a TED talk. Yeah. Uh which which is real. Yep. But then you go to her.
29:44
But to be fair, Sam Hyde also has a TED talk. So that's true. It's not the bar.
29:49
Anybody Anybody can have a TED talk these days.
29:51
Everybody gets a universal basic basic TED talk and Forbes article.
29:55
Um uh so uh anyways I I look uh I look up her fund and on LinkedIn there's there's nobody that works for the fund, not even her. Weird.
30:06
So and it's an AI generated image.
30:06
She's got a bunch of followers.
30:09
It's like clearly, you know, you know, if she's a real person, Jenzu, come on the show. You're welcome.
30:17
Love to talk to you about Manis.
30:19
is like there's clearly a real person behind the bots.
30:21
So like why don't they just use their own photo and name? Like it's very odd.
30:24
Anyway, uh let's read a little bit of this and give you some backstory on uh on what Sam's thinking with a social network that is bot free.
30:33
Uh Mims writes, "These ubiquitous orbs would allow us to do anything requiring identification online or in real life from buying bread to paying taxes."
30:43
Very interesting example there.
30:46
Uh, it's a vision reminiscent to of other efforts.
30:49
It's like the most dystopian. Dystopian.
30:53
You're going to use your orb.
30:53
You're going to use your orbit when you're in the bread line.
30:56
When you're in the bread line and when you're paying Uncle Sam. Yeah. Yeah. Paying taxes.
30:59
And the future is just buying bread and paying taxes.
31:04
It's not like it's not It could be so much more optimistic.
31:06
It could be You could be this.
31:09
It could easily be like Yeah. Yeah.
31:12
You need this to log into your flying car.
31:14
Like, you know, when when you get through customs on the moon, like you could be so much more optimistic.
31:20
Instead, it's just buying bread and paying taxes. That's the future. Uh what do they say? Death and taxes. Uh bread and taxes. That's the future.
31:27
Uh it's a vision reminisces. Yeah. Bread and circuses.
31:30
Uh it's a vision reminiscent of other recent efforts, including Amazon's attempt to replace credit cards with our palms and Ant Group's efforts in China to make it possible to pay with your face. The big difference.
31:41
The builders of an app called World, including chief executive Alex Blania and his co-founder Sam Alman of OpenAI fame, envision a time in the not too distant future when you can't do much without an ocular check-in.
31:52
AI agents will be so prevalent and so humanlike that we'll need to repeatedly prove we're human to prevent those AIs from masquerading as humans on everything from payment platforms to social networks.
32:03
I think that there is something legitimate here.
32:04
Run had a good post about like the the the the variations in understanding how much AI is between you and the person that you're interacting with.
32:12
And it's like it's like because there will be you're you're interfacing with like a humanoid robot but there's uh there's a human teleaoperating it and you're hearing a real voice versus the opposite which is like you're talking to an actor but everything all the lines they're saying are chat GBT generated or something.
32:29
are chat GBT generated or something. So there's like all these weird edge cases or or the humanoid that you're talking to in English is a AI agent that is just generating totally you know and I mean we like clearly this is coming clearly
32:42
there needs to be some sort of counterweight to this whether it's regulatory or technology and I like the idea of a techbased solution here as opposed to something like oh we're scared of bots online let's ban them or like let's make it illegal to to use you know AI generated Next. I mean,
32:58
I mean, everybody that's traveled at all, it's now the facial recognition is technically not required, but it is so aggressively pushed that people don't realize it's not required when you're at when you're in the TSA. Yeah.
33:13
Security, you can just say, I don't want to do a facial recognition scan today. And they go, okay.
33:22
And they just look at your ID and you can go through. still opt in.
33:32
I want to prove my loyalty to America. Yeah.
33:34
And and and the deep state specifically.
33:36
I want them to know I'm on their side. I'm on your team. These are my guys. Yeah. Yeah. John's guys. Yeah.
33:42
Um AI agents will be so future member. Yeah.
33:47
Uh to accelerate adoption hall of fame.
33:50
to let's just make sure we keep politics out of the deep state folks.
33:52
Uh to accelerate adoption of what the world calls its autonomous proof of human system, the company re recently launched a mini app inside of its app which is available for iPhones and Android devices.
34:06
Um world's mini app is part of a broader strategy to create an everything app.
34:10
These apps so-called super apps are common throughout Asia.
34:14
Um, world's mini app store, which currently includes services to send and receive cryptocurrency, chat with verified humans, and access microloans, is a first step towards creating what Altman, Blania, and their team hope will be a vast ecosystem reaching more than a billion people.
34:29
As the company's identification system expands, they anticipate their main competitor will be Elon Musk's own attempt at an everything app X.
34:38
Uh, I think it will take a while until we seriously collide.
34:40
Blania told me on Tuesday, given that X is now primarily a social network, the app, formerly known as Twitter, has yet to launch a payment service.
34:48
So, here's the crazy thing.
34:53
I do believe that OpenAI will have significantly more monthly activives than X by the end of the year. Yeah.
35:00
Which is a wild situation where so Elon is competing with OpenAI by, you know, forcing you to use Grock in these various ways, which is smart. Yep.
35:07
But then Sam Alman could catalyze his own competitive product to X by funneling people from Chad GPT into the world everything app or whatever.
35:19
It's an interesting dynamic. Yeah.
35:21
Um so so the orbs have not launched in the United States there but there are pictures of them all over in like foreign countries which is kind of an interesting strategy.
35:31
I mean most of the time like you want to launch in the US first and then kind of broaden out but they were kind of doing the opposite.
35:36
Within about 12 months, however, Blania believes the two services will start to compete in earnest.
35:42
If so, it would be notable development in part because making everything apps work in the west has proved ex extremely difficult.
35:47
The bottom line is that for most people with an Android phone or iPhone who haven't grown up in the tech ecosystems of Asia, those app stores already offer the versatility and flexibility that everything apps do.
35:58
Sam Alman's involvement in world might also encourage competition between world and X by virtue of it's so hard to puglistic nature.
36:06
It's so hard to kickstart an everything app because imagine if you go and you get Uber, Door Dash, you build your own messaging.
36:14
You know, you need some sort of like WeChat for example has some core like calling Yep. browser chat etc.
36:20
And if you go to an American user now and you say, "Hey, I'm going to give you messaging, a browser, chat, and I'm going to give you like Uber and all these other and games and all these things."
36:33
They're going to say, "Okay, I have all of that."
36:35
So potentially the only way to actually get somebody to switch over is be like, I'm going to pay you to switch like other because like the value trading, right?
36:42
Because if you get on World Coin, they give you some World Coin, then they can moon and it's like the same.
36:48
So it's the same economics. Yeah. Yeah.
36:50
So it's just yeah unless you're literally your users is like you could you could very easily imagine this working if Apple somehow I don't know like acquired it or like built it in because when you think about like like you know you need to be scanning all the time.
37:07
You need very deep access to the camera APIs to make sure that you're getting like real images instead of like images that have been passed through some sort of extra layer or something.
37:16
uh all the different biometrics in the face in the face ID system, but I I don't think like Face ID API you can plug into.
37:24
We need an orb to figure out if these are real images of JD vans or not.
37:31
Um so, uh few people in the US have heard of World, formerly known as Worldcoin.
37:36
Uh if they have, it's probably on account of the company's unique biometric identification system, the orb.
37:41
So far, orbiting millions of people hasn't proved popular with governments around the world as more than a dozen have either suspended its operation in their countries or else examined its handling of personal data.
37:53
Uh, world investor and venture capitalist Ben Horowitz said on a recent episode of his podcast with Mark Andre that the loosening restrictions on crypto companies in the US, he anticipates World will become legal in the US this year.
38:04
At present, the company doesn't scan eyeballs in the US or allow Americans to hold its World Coin token for fear of regulators, Altman has said.
38:13
Um, when asked how long it will be until World sets up locations in the US where people can walk in, present their irises, and become part of the network, Blania declined to say, but he adds the effort is top of mind for him.
38:26
In general, Blania brushes aside concerns about regulators both in the US and abroad.
38:30
Okay, so this is a crazy statistic.
38:34
world and its orb eyeball scanner have verified 11 million people.
38:36
They've scanned the irises of 11 million people.
38:41
That is very impressive just from a logistical standpoint. Totally. To get that done. Yeah.
38:45
Um and I I wish we had more footage on the ground of how this is happening because I'm imagining they show up in a small town. Yeah.
38:52
And they basically and it's just one dude with an orb and he's like, "Okay, like you're come get your eye scanned.
38:58
We're gonna you might get money in the future."
39:00
That seems like probably the trade. Yeah. Yeah.
39:05
Basically, you get a token drop. Yeah.
39:07
And maybe those tokens are liquid.
39:09
You can sell them immediately.
39:09
No, but I don't think they're anybody's getting airdrop the token yet. No, not if you scan.
39:14
I thought that was one way to get access.
39:16
I thought you could also just buy the token right now, but I don't know. Uh you can just buy it. Okay. It's at a 7. 5 billion valuation. Not bad.
39:26
Fully diluted with a market cap of uh 800 million if you just look at the circulating.
39:31
So, significantly lower than than Trumpcoin.
39:35
Well, I haven't looked at Trumpcoin.
39:35
Is Trumpcoin gonna offer uh eyeball scanning? Official Trump. They really should.
39:41
Uh Trump is down to a $2 billion market. Two billion. It's funny.
39:45
So, Trumpcoin is down less than the S&P.
39:49
It's a better store of value than than Apple, Microsoft, Google, Amazon. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.
39:57
I I think it's doing better than Mag 7. H this is fantastic.
39:59
Uh, other systems that rely on biometrics have unnerved users and governments in the past.
40:05
It's easy to forget the hue and cry once raised about Face ID on the iPhone.
40:09
The face scanning technology most people now use to unlock their Apple devices. When is it introduced?
40:15
There were concerns about it both as a potential security liability and because of the way it evoked mass surveillance systems in China that rely on facial recognition.
40:24
World says its network is auton is anonymous and secure and only proves you're a person, but it could be made part of a broader identity system.
40:30
Uh, one of world's distinguishing features is that it is an anonymous proofofhuman system.
40:37
That is, it's eyeball scan can verify that you're a human being and not an AI, but without additional software and systems, it can't identify who you are.
40:44
What could drive people to adop adopt a system like that?
40:46
worlds will be uh the rise of ever more sophisticated AIs that will make doing business on the internet almost impossible. Interesting. Yeah.
40:55
I mean, if the content's good, sign me up. Scan my eyeball.
40:58
I want to I want to see uh good posts.
40:59
And if there's no bots and the posts are better, I I I'm a slop pig for the content.
41:06
I I'm willing to share my biometric data uh if it if it gets me uh you know, a couple funny bangers in the in the feed.
41:12
The real question is is will will the slop app be John by the way has already finished his first his first first class here. Cheers. Cheers. Um yeah.
41:21
I mean the real question is like is like revealed preferences.
41:23
The stated preference is like oh I don't want to I don't want to interact with any bots online.
41:27
But the revealed preference might be oh I love when a hundred bots show up and like my post. Yeah. You know. So we'll see.
41:33
We'll see which one people go with.
41:38
There's been there's been a few of these where the challenge here is that they're mixing they're trying to do multiple things at once. Yeah. Right.
41:47
They're they're trying to build this in their words autonomous proof of human system. Yep.
41:52
Which to me says it's more like this developer product that other applications and services and things in the real world could leverage as a tool to verify identity and prevent bots. Yeah.
42:06
Simultaneously they now have this token which is its own product in itself. Right.
42:10
We've talked about this before.
42:11
The the the sort of the the product of the token is its price. Yeah.
42:16
And so the incentive is just to to just sort of like drive up uh drive up the price and and do sort of you know manipulate the market in that way.
42:23
And then now they're also saying we're going to also do consumer apps and we're also going to do an everything app.
42:28
And it's starting to be like a lot of things have to go right. Right.
42:33
Samson talked about this last week and I think this is a good framework which is like if you're investing in something how many individual things need to go right what was this phrase like no bank shots or something like that. Yeah. Yeah.
42:43
And so here like you know these some of these are experiments. Yeah.
42:47
But and but and it's clear they have sort of like user traction on the supply side.
42:52
They got they got eyeballs right? They got eyeballs. Mary Mer would be proud.
42:57
Mary Maker would be very proud.
42:59
11 million eyeballs during the dot.
43:02
That's 10 billion or in market cap for sure easily.
43:08
She'll take that public all day.
43:10
And so they got to a lot of things seemingly they're trying to do a lot at once. Yeah.
43:13
And it seems unclear that any of these things are again what what users want.
43:20
I mean Mims is you were you were impressed by 11 million.
43:22
Mims here says world has only or verified 11 million people worldwide despite the fact that it literally pays them.
43:30
So they are paying them in real time 25 tokens per scan roughly $25 at today's prices now offers 16 tokens per scan at the launch date for X's money account service is unclear.
43:43
The company has said that it will count Visa as its first partner for AX.
43:48
AX did not respond to a request for comment.
43:50
Um, and so yeah, I mean I wonder I wonder if they can keep the the token price high enough, keep raising money, keeping X has vastly more users than World does, but it's unclear how many people will be eager to entrust an Elon Musk owned company with their financial lives.
44:07
I mean, they trust him to drive them Yeah. around.
44:09
Uh so anyways that seems like a stretch but but overall uh X has more users than world but I believe by the end of the year Open AI will have more users than X. Yeah.
44:23
And so wait are you proposing some sort of like like theory of like you know Elon companies and we should be thinking about like the No, I'm I'm more so saying I'm I'm more saying you can imagine a collaboration between OpenAI and World Sure.
44:37
where they drive worldcoin usage through the open the same way that X is partnered with XAI and they're two separate companies but they're obviously deeply integrated.
44:46
You can see the same thing happening with with Worldcoin and the Chat GBT app.
44:52
Yeah, that'd be pretty crazy.
44:52
But I but I think that makes sense. Yeah, you could imagine.
44:55
So here's something I've thought about before.
44:56
So a lot of people have said give me the best OpenAI models unlimited access.
45:01
One of the challenges there is that you could sort of do that, but then people would build software on top of them where they would just be like querying it and using it for other apps.
45:10
And so Sam could come out and say, "Okay, you can use unlimited open AI as long as you are periodically doing the sort of like eyeball recognition through through the orb or some something to that effect, right?
45:22
So it's like you're actually using the product.
45:24
you're not just like software a bot that's just sort of like using up inference on behalf of other applications.
45:30
So I want to see I want to see the the the pen testers and the hackers try and beat this thing.
45:37
I want to see George hot jailbreak a an orb.
45:38
Uh because when when Face ID came out, people were like, "Well, if I 3D print my face and then I put it up and I have this mask, like I can still get through."
45:47
Um and it's not that big of a deal.
45:50
people were trying to break it, but obviously like it is a huge vulnerability if it's like, you know, the FBI sees a phone and they're not supposed to be able to get in, but then they can just like 3D print a picture of your face and then put hold it up and it verifies.
46:02
Yeah, it seems like Apple's gotten pretty good at that.
46:06
Yeah, it does seem like it's you don't hear about, oh, the FBI hacked this person's phone by, you know, holding it up holding it up.
46:12
I Wasn't there some story about that where they they hold it up to someone's face like while they're sleeping or something like that?
46:17
I feel like that's happened.
46:18
the the the safety mechanism is that you your eyes have to be open.
46:23
Oh, for for Face ID, I think so. Okay. Interesting. Let me confirm. Yeah.
46:27
Well, it'll be a uh a knockout dragout. I'm sure it continues.
46:30
I'm sure there'll be more entertainment.
46:33
Uh, never a dull moment when Sam Alman and Elon Musk are I would like to have I I I would like to get uh I'd like to have the World Coin CEO on the show and just have him give the the full pitch because it's clearly compelling at a high level.
46:50
It does feel weird, but it also feels like something that like we could look back on and been like, "Yeah, that was like that was a novel enough idea that it broke out because because it's weird and different."
47:01
Um, and so I've been Yeah.
47:03
And if I'm ever if I'm traveling in any exotic landsc that's that's a uh uh that's a shish kebab somewhere, you know.
47:14
Uh air uh it's an air burrito. Burrito. Yeah. Yeah.
47:20
With with almost you could almost get it delivered off. Almost. Not overseas though. Almost. Not overseas. Almost. Um uh Okay. Okay.
47:27
Well, should we move on to to Palmer Lucky in the Wall Street Journal? Yeah. Who is this guy again?
47:33
Uh Palmer Lucky or Tim Higgins, the guy who wrote the show? Tim Higgins, of course. Tim Higgins. No. Uh I'm just joking. Palmer Lucky.
47:39
They're calling him Donald Trump's original tech bro.
47:44
He gets his moment in article. Slur in the title. Yeah.
47:47
Technology brother, please.
47:49
Trump's original technology brother.
47:51
Once an outcast, the Ander founders vision for modernizing the government seems possible. Okay.
47:55
opening line of this article.
47:58
Generally, tech bros tend to overestimate their ability to change the world.
48:03
It's I was talking to Sal about this.
48:07
We're going to have Salon on the show and and talk about like the edmology of the tech bro thing. Yeah.
48:13
It's a tough thing because we love the journal. Yeah.
48:14
It's overall fantastic, but to take such a clear and aggressive shot against our culture and the opening line of it of, you know, what I'm sure got a mention on the front page. Yeah.
48:26
I I mean I think we I think we've kind of like retoled and reclaimed this term enough, but it's just very silly because it's such a meaningless term that it really just meant like anyone who's a male in tech was a bro.
48:41
Also, if you think about anybody who ever invented anything Yeah.
48:44
a lot of them could be described as like, oh, he was a guy that was into technology. Yeah.
48:53
And yeah, there's many more people that that sort of overestimated their abilities and came up short and didn't invent this important thing.
48:59
Uh but we need the we need a hundred people to try and only one to be successful in order to sort of move the world forward. Yeah.
49:07
Like when this came out, I thought the bar for bro should be way way higher. Like what do you mean?
49:12
What I mean is that like like so there's there's everyone in tech and then there's everyone in tech who's male.
49:18
But though not everyone in tech who's a male is a tech bro.
49:23
In order to be a tech bro you have to be actively running a technology company that's like building software or hardware but then also doing keg stands chugging Miller light like crushing nuners lots of tattoos lots of days on the lake like lots of tank tops lots of push-ups.
49:42
Like you have to be jacked. Yeah.
49:44
Like Alexis joined with a tank top.
49:46
You could kind of say he lives in South Florida. Yep. Yep. Yeah.
49:48
I I I I I I would forgive the journal for for calling him a tech bro, but uh as a ter this picture is he's wearing a Hawaiian shirt.
49:59
He looks like he's he's potentially the social chair at the top fraternity at his college.
50:03
I think it's really just like up to up to Palmer if he if he's if he wants to be a tech bro and and use that that's fine.
50:09
But it but for many years it was it was it was used as pjorative.
50:14
It was it was used as a slur.
50:16
It was used to discredit someone.
50:18
Uh and and the reason was because uh the idea of doing science and doing engineering was antithetical to crushing beers with your absolute boys in the frat house.
50:29
And so by saying, "Oh, this person's a bro," it meant that they can't be a serious technologist when that was clearly proven false. Yeah.
50:35
By Zach, the Winkle brothers. Yeah.
50:37
All these different running a top crypto exchange. Yes. Yes. Yes.
50:41
Uh so uh he goes on to write uh Palmer's support of Donald Trump in 2016 got him according to his recounting booted from liberal Silicon Valley, pushed out of his job at Facebook and made into a pariah.
50:54
All that despite the fact that he had sold his virtual reality company Oculus VR to Mark Zuckerberg's social media company for billions and was seen as the OG of VR.
51:04
I kind of like this writing actually. It's pretty good. Uh dejected.
51:08
He went on to build the next thing, Killer AI.
51:09
Uh, it's a hell of an origin story for Anderal Industries, whose initials spell AI.
51:14
Lucky named the company after the hero sword in the Lord of the Rings, a weapon also known as the Flame of the West.
51:21
In many ways, Lucky wants his weapons company.
51:22
And that's just what it's just one of the best Yeah.
51:28
names and stories behind the name. Yep.
51:31
In Silicon Valley history, the Flame of the West. Flame of the West. Incredible.
51:37
In doing so, Lucky has become one of the brightest examples of a new wave of ascendant entrepreneurs.
51:44
They assue what has made Silicon Valley so powerful, personal gadgets and adtech, and pour themselves into super hard and sometimes controversial sciences and engineering as they say and they they say can make America better.
51:54
Supersonic airplanes, nuclear energy, space travel.
51:56
These days, Lucky and tell his origin story because those examples shouldn't really be contra like why are they controversial? We should have Yeah.
52:06
controversial airplanes that can go.
52:06
I mean, I guess nuclear is a little controversial, but space travel isn't controversial, is it? I guess it is.
52:13
There's people that say we shouldn't go to space and stuff. No, no, no.
52:14
We have problems on cuz they're because they're challenging God because it's a front god to try and leave God's green earth.
52:21
Uh they say, "Why are you spending all this money blowing up your rockets in space?
52:28
We have enough problems on Earth."
52:28
All those hundreds of millions of dollars.
52:31
Also very controversial of your flatearther, the space travel stuff.
52:32
So they they might be talking about that.
52:35
They might be highlighting the fact that flat-earthers don't like tech people.
52:39
Oh, we're gonna go to space and they're like doing it over and over again, making movies about it. Exactly. Exactly.
52:44
Um, these days, Lucky likes to tell his origin story, especially when it became uh become cool for Zuckerberg and other tech leaders to be seen as cozying up to President Trump.
52:54
Zuckerberg told Congress that Ly's Facebook departure had nothing to do with politics.
52:57
Hey, speaking of Zuckerberg cozying up to uh the American right wing, uh he was at the UFC Saturday night and the stream was really not functioning well and so Dana uh like the pay-per-view.
53:11
So Dana White was streaming from his phone really and you could hear he was just Yeah, it was round one.
53:17
He just had it playing and you could hear Zuckerberg talking being like, "Oh, where are you streaming from right now?
53:22
What account are you streaming from?"
53:23
like he I could I think he wanted to go look and like test like see the quality.
53:27
So even even during the UFC event he was founder mode like wanted to make sure it was during the main event. It was cool. I love that.
53:33
Uh all these people have tidied up all of their inconvenient beliefs. Lucky says which I love.
53:41
Uh I'm not going to throw it back in their faces and say oh yeah but what about this thing that you did eight years ago?
53:46
It's just not productive. Yeah.
53:49
One one man that's a little bit different.
53:52
That's not really an inconvenient belief.
53:52
That's like a personal interaction.
53:54
Um but uh yeah, we don't talk about politics on this show. Uh better position now.
53:59
Lucky is clearly trying to take advantage of the moment that Trump's ascent has created, especially with the Elon Musk led government efficiency effort.
54:06
And other high-tech companies are trying to convince the Pentagon that their technologies are part of the solution to for a more efficient and modern government than what's offered by the lumbering giants in defense.
54:18
The core thesis of Anderil is that we are not a defense contractor.
54:22
Lucky you said we are a defense product company.
54:24
We put our own money into building things and we show up not with a PowerPoint but with a working product and so the taxpayer isn't taking on the development risk for these products. It's great.
54:33
The flipped model venture capitalists are makes a lot of sense. Exactly. We're grateful for them. Yep.
54:41
Uh uh Lucky was dismissed by tech peers as crude and out of touch.
54:44
Even now, some in Washington remain unimpressed, but for different reasons.
54:48
What does this guy know about virtual reality?
54:52
What What does this guy known for virtual reality know about the battlefield?
54:54
A rival last year called Anderl, the therronos of defense.
54:57
I I I I think I know who they're talking about.
55:00
And it's like it's like not not a rival at all.
55:03
It's not like another entrepreneur, business person.
55:04
It's like a random poster. Yeah. Right.
55:06
It's like it's not like an online rival. Exactly. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.
55:11
But giving them too much credit to say they're a rival.
55:14
Also, Theronos, yeah, you could give it blood, but it would just sort of not, you know, couldn't really do much with it.
55:20
Yeah, they've shown that they can actually create products that do, you know, they can blow up a truck. Yeah.
55:26
Which by nature means that Theronos is not the right comparison at all. It's very silly.
55:33
Uh, Lucky responded on the social media platform X with a photo of his own head superimposed on Elizabeth Holm's body.
55:38
A former journalism major before dropping out to work on Oculus in a camper parked in his uh parents' home.
55:45
Lucky understands the power of narrative.
55:46
Even his name sounds like something out of an Elmore Leonard novel.
55:50
Like he should be a lone shark busting heads in Miami rather than an arms dealer holding court in Mara Lago.
55:58
He's known for his Hawaiian t-shirts, flip-flops, and goatee, and a willingness to talk about whatever's on his mind, conspiracy theories, video games, management theories, etc.
56:05
The first time I met Lucky a few years ago, he talked to me with an incredible enthusiasm.
56:10
It's also So, I mean, this article is funny because it's making him sound really cool, but at the same time, like clearly is like has a negative bend to it. Yeah.
56:20
Calling him an arms dealer versus a technologist focused on defense. Exactly. Exactly.
56:25
comparing him to a lone shark busting heads because his name based on his name.
56:30
Yeah, I I I don't get that.
56:34
This person clearly hasn't studied nominative determinism because there's nothing in Palmer free man Lucky that says lone shark to me. Yeah.
56:43
Anyway, uh the first time this writer met Palmer Lucky a few years ago, he talked to me with an incredible enthusiasm about an idea for why people should raise hippos in the swamplands of Louisiana for food.
56:54
It was something he read about from the 1950s.
56:56
He said, "I've read this book, The American Hippopotamus. It's a fantastic plan.
56:59
It actually got all the way to Congress.
57:03
There was a bill proposed to bring hippos to Louisiana, raise them for food."
57:08
Uh, and it and you know, Palmer's here arguing kind of the same thesis.
57:10
It was better for land management than grazing cattle on prime real estate elsewhere.
57:16
Like, you're not going to build a bunch of housing on the bayou, so put the hippos there.
57:19
They're a little dangerous, but you can like, you know, fence them in and then it's fine.
57:23
Uh, and he says, "Uh, Lucky assured me that Hippo meat was tasty. It's red meat.
57:27
Though after some proddding, he admitted that he had never tried it."
57:31
Yeah, because it's it's hard to get a a hand on.
57:34
And was originally backed by Peter Teal's Founders Fund and co-founded with Palanteer Technology alums, Democrats.
57:39
We should give some background on on Founders Fund for anybody that Oh, yeah. For sure.
57:44
Maybe joined a second ago. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.
57:48
Anyone who's living under a rock.
57:48
Uh, it started out as building sensor towers during the first Trump administration to spot people crossing the border illegally.
57:55
The company evolved to produce robot drones and then robot submarines called ghost sharks.
57:58
The gist is to keep US soldiers out of harm's way if they all operate with AI running on a central operating system andor developed uh to run across its hardware.
58:07
That's called Lattis, which we've talked about before.
58:10
This show actually runs on Lattice.
58:16
Just the most That's our nickname.
58:16
That should be our new nickname for Ben. Hey, Lattice. Lattice. Yeah, Jarvis.
58:20
Pull up this this uh post right now.
58:23
The entrepreneur has proven AI has a place in war and the Ukraine, Russia, and Israel, Hamas war show that futuristic ideas are becoming commonplace, changing the face of war and how it will be fought in the years ahead.
58:35
In general, in in January, Ander announced plans to invest almost a billion dollars into a factory in Ohio to build autonomous jet fighters in the US for the Air Force, a contract it won last year.
58:45
And in February, Andrew said it was taking over Microsoft's $22 billion contract with the US Army to develop augmented reality headsets for the battlefield, a project that marries Ly's past and present.
58:54
And I I love that a lot of people are like, uh, what's going to happen there?
58:58
It's like he is the perfect person for this.
59:02
He's like the most qualified person in the world to do for this line.
59:04
So he made this announcement.
59:06
He says, "Whatever you are imagining, however crazy you imagine I am, multiply it by 10 and then do it again."
59:12
Lucky wrote, "I am back and I'm only getting started." It is over. We're so back. It's great. I love it. Yeah, it's a lot of fun.
59:22
Um anyway, um yeah, it's so funny when people come for Palmer is like, "Oh, he he he's unqualified for this."
59:29
It's like he's I think he's now like in his 30s and he spent his entire career in in like the most powerful rooms in America in like high growth companies doing real work in every industry. every industry player.
59:42
The consensus view of the future of warfare is sort of swarms of autonomous often small uh hardware devices.
59:51
So maybe you want to you want the guy who built like this super complicated VR product and scaled it to millions of sales.
1:00:00
Maybe that would be a good guy to to to Yeah.
1:00:04
He's like he's like one of the only hardware founders to be successful out of that 2010's batch.
1:00:09
Like there were a few others that did okay, smart watches, scales and stuff, but like yeah, obviously Oculus fantastic.
1:00:17
So we'll have to have him on the show. Dig in more.
1:00:21
A little bit of a little bit of a puff piece, a little bit of a just just like, you know, little tour of who Palmer is.
1:00:26
I wouldn't call it a puff piece.
1:00:28
Yeah, it's a little had a very negative.
1:00:30
It had some negativity, some positivity, but you know, didn't go too deep.
1:00:34
We didn't have to put it too hard in the truth zone. No, no, no.
1:00:36
It was a mild mild truth zone.
1:00:38
Anyway, I'm gonna use the restroom when you get started in the next one. Yeah. Yeah.
1:00:41
We're moving over to Deep Seek.
1:00:43
This is an interesting story.
1:00:45
So, uh, obviously Deepseek blew up and did have an impact on the timeline.
1:00:50
A lot of people were following it and now investors want a piece of Deepseek, but the founder of Deepseek says not now.
1:00:56
This is from the Wall Street Journal March 10th.
1:00:59
The founder of chi Chinese artificial intelligence star Deepseek, which of course spun out of that hedge fund we talked about, has rejected proposals to make quick money from his programs, telling prospective investors that he wants to keep the science project ethos that brought him to global renown.
1:01:16
Overwhelmed by millions of users, Deepseek's chatbot has frequent service hiccups and authorities around the world are restricting its use over data concern data security concerns.
1:01:23
The US is weighing measures including banning DeepSeek from government devices, which of course makes sense because if you're using DeepSeek as an open-source LLM that you're self-hosting, you're not sending data there.
1:01:34
There's still the question of is there some sort of Manurion candidate deep inside the weights.
1:01:39
Uh but that's kind of, you know, science fiction right now.
1:01:41
Um, but if you're using the DeepSeek app, literally every query, everything that you put into that uh that chat that that chat box is going to deepsee, which of course uh is a Chinese company and and ultimately responsible to the CCP uh potentially.
1:01:55
And so uh he is also cautious about government linked investors, they said, because he believes the connection to Beijing could make it harder to win global adoption of deep sea AI models.
1:02:05
Leong is at the same uh Leong Wang has told associates that he isn't in a hurry to get investment.
1:02:12
The Chinese company made a global spa splash earlier this year with its freeto use open- source AI models.
1:02:16
It was the moment Deepseek had aimed for since Leang's band of AI researchers began their quest two years ago with words they attributed to French director Francois Trufol.
1:02:27
Be insanely ambitious and and insanely sincere. Interesting. He's interesting.
1:02:37
So, I'm just pulling this up.
1:02:39
It was my first thought was uh Deep Seek is number 20 in productivity right now. Yeah, Grock is 31. 31. So, Grock stolen.
1:02:49
Uh Jimmy John's I don't believe is in the productivity category.
1:02:52
Uh Jimmy John's app store.
1:02:54
If you if you weren't following the app store last last week, the top three apps were ChatGpt, Jimmy John's, and Hallow. Yeah, a prayer app. Big week.
1:03:05
So, you really get to choose your god.
1:03:08
You get to choose your AI god, your Christian god, or your sandwich god.
1:03:12
So, Jimmy John's has taken an absolute tumble.
1:03:15
They're they're 46 in food and drink.
1:03:16
So, nowhere near terrible.
1:03:22
Not even in the game anymore.
1:03:22
Uh they're come out with a new sandwich. Yeah.
1:03:24
Get some get some referral friend going on there.
1:03:28
Or they could say, "Hey, if you can prove you're human, you can get a $25 gift card to Jimmy John."
1:03:31
John should do what Nikita does where where you go to you go to get your sandwich, you check out, and then afterwards it says like, "Hey, do you want to know what the sandwich artist that made your sandwich thinks about you?"
1:03:44
And then you click $5 and it unlocks.
1:03:46
It's like, "Yeah, they thought you were kind of rude or like they thought you were kind of rude."
1:03:50
Oh, they actually thought you were really nice and you tipped really well.
1:03:52
They thought you were dripped out.
1:03:54
They thought you were dripped out. Exactly. Yeah. Yeah.
1:03:55
Pay to unlock a compliment.
1:03:58
It's a cure male loneliness.
1:04:00
This This might actually be a good idea.
1:04:03
I I I think we got to get Nikita on the line and and and pitch it to him and then pitch it to Jimmy John himself who also should come on the show.
1:04:09
Um Leong was invited to a who's who list of Chinese executives who met leader Cinping on February 17th and his success has prompted a gushing of patriotism in China.
1:04:21
You know, this is something we should copy.
1:04:23
I feel like if you if you inv if you invent a a viral app or a cool foundation model, get let's get you in the White House, shake the president's hand, the whole tour, you know, the same if you if you are an athlete and you do something remotely. Yeah. Yeah.
1:04:39
They always invite the winning Super Bowl team, presidential medal of freedom, you know, if you build a chat GPT rapper that Yeah.
1:04:44
We need the medal of innovation. Yes. Exactly. Exactly. And the medal of slop. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.
1:04:50
The worker 17 guys from YC.
1:04:52
Get him in the White House shaking hands. Yeah.
1:04:54
Uh, how you doing with that Don Peran over there?
1:04:56
Why don't you polish that off? I'll refill.
1:05:01
The stateowned Bank of China has offered to That was just John not wanting to to double down.
1:05:06
Uh, the stateowned Bank of China has offered to grant a lowinterest loan to the company.
1:05:10
People familiar with discussions said in interest.
1:05:14
In recent weeks, uh, executives from Chinese technology companies, including Tensson and Alibaba, have met Leang to discuss potential cooperation.
1:05:21
I'm sure they want a stake with this company.
1:05:23
Uh, he said people familiar with the companies.
1:05:27
Uh, those people said Leang didn't want to charge for Deep Seek's core AI models, which are currently free.
1:05:31
If your models if your model's so good, why don't you charge money for it?
1:05:34
The startup published techniques it's used to train its AI models using downgraded chip Nvidia designed for China.
1:05:41
It aims to release its next model.
1:05:43
upgraded uh designed for solving complex problems as early as April.
1:05:48
So stay tuned for Deep Seek V4 probably.
1:05:51
Uh we'll see if that's a bigger model.
1:05:54
Be interesting to follow.
1:05:55
Uh Rise of the High Flyer Leang born in 1985.
1:05:58
We already did a deep dive on this guy.
1:05:59
You can go find it on the channel.
1:06:01
Um but founded a hedge fund known in English as Highflyier in 2015.
1:06:06
Its Chinese name alludes to an ancient Han Dynasty diagram with a magic square, a mathematical peculiarity in which the rows, columns, and diagonals of the square all add up to the same number.
1:06:20
Going Sudoku mode, Sudoku vibes. I like it.
1:06:23
Leong was proud that Chinese sages discovered the concept long before the West, said people who know him.
1:06:28
In its hiring advertisements, Highflyer sounded more like a technology firm than a hedge fund.
1:06:34
This is pretty common with what's going on with Jane Street and Citadel.
1:06:38
It even tried to put the word technologies in its name before regulators said no. I mean, that's cool.
1:06:43
It looked for people who had won math contests.
1:06:45
We've seen this happen in America before with the IMO gold medalists all going to work for RAMP.
1:06:52
Um, the fund promised as much as $270,000 a year for AI engineers at a campus event in 2020 to support their AI ambitions.
1:06:59
Leong and his team used the profits from from the hedge fund which charged the same type of hefty fees as US hedge funds do.
1:07:05
So probably two and 20 or more.
1:07:07
Um Leong's quant fund significantly outperformed the market between 2015 and 2020 sometimes scoring returns that were 20 to 50 percentage points more than stock market benchmarks.
1:07:18
In 2021, Highfly, you're doing pretty well. Yeah. Had 14 billion.
1:07:22
You want to keep reading? I'll keep reading.
1:07:24
Um where did you end off?
1:07:27
Uh, in 2021, Highflyier's assets under management.
1:07:30
In 2021, Highflyier Technologies assets under management reached around 14 billion according to people familiar with the matter, but the fund's performance soon faded.
1:07:38
By late 2021, when dozens of Highflyers products were down by more than 10% from their recent peak, the company apologized to its investors for its performance.
1:07:47
One of its flagship funds lost money in both 2022 and 2023, although it beat the benchmark index it was supposed to track.
1:07:54
Two years ago, Highflyier largely closed itself to new investors and started in mid 24 2024 to encourage some investors to redeem their investments.
1:08:03
They're like, "We have such a good short position that we're building.
1:08:07
building. we would like you to just sort of uh take out your money and then just let us just like reap the uh um by the end of last year like but a lot of hedge funds have done this like Jane Street doesn't have any outside capital I believe and a lot of other funds have
1:08:23
kind of moved towards less and less LPS if they can by the end of last year highf flyier's assets under management had shrunk significantly uh to me this looks like you know one reason is that you just don't want sort of outsized uh outside scrutiny into what you're doing. I don't want more I don't want more leaks.
1:08:40
Newcomers going to get your returns as soon as you get an LP who has a subscription and and you can't have that happening.
1:08:46
Uh and and also just regulation because there's just more people that can sue you for saying, "Hey, you know what what you did was was not meeting your fiduciary responsibilities." Yeah.
1:08:55
Uh and then of course once you have so many investors, of course, you might need to go public or something.
1:09:01
Yeah, there's a lot of different.
1:09:02
So, in mid 2023, the fund announced a strategic shift and created DeepSeek as an independent organization.
1:09:08
Highflyier put almost all its revenue from the quant fund business into AI development.
1:09:11
According to the company's posts on Chinese social media, Highflyier said it would devote itself fully to AI technology that serves the common good of all man mankind.
1:09:18
Sounds like it was uh written by the CCP.
1:09:28
Um, deepseeks AI models are generally free.
1:09:31
free. Although it does offer so yeah they just they they just care about the good of humanity purely purely purely uh its problem is handling the traffic surge so they're struggling to handle the traffic but they don't want
1:09:46
investment they'll just take the ultra low interest rate loan from the bank of China not conflicted at all they're just in it for humanity okay like it's just about humanity they want to keep the models free just free models just working with the government. That's we're going to
1:10:01
That's we're going to lever up. Yep.
1:10:02
From We're going to take low interest rates from uh from from the Bank of China Bank of the CCP. Yep.
1:10:08
Just one board member, Cinping. That's it. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.
1:10:12
Uh to lessen the overload on its servers, Deepseek has been offering deep discounts to paying customers who use its services in the early morning.
1:10:19
So, you can get Teimu Deepseek credits if you're using it at the right hours.
1:10:23
Uh, so some Chinese tech giants such as Tencent are testing DeepSeek to power features including a search engine of Tencent messaging and payment app.
1:10:31
They don't have to pay DeepSseek to do so.
1:10:32
Tencent users can opt for a chatbot that is powered by Deep Seek.
1:10:36
Deepseek, but uses Tencent's own more stable computer network. Yeah.
1:10:42
Um, so since late 2023, Deepseek pitched itself to several venture capital firms, including some foreign firms.
1:10:48
This is a great strategy, by the way. Say you're not raising.
1:10:51
say you don't want money but then go raise.
1:10:52
It creates this dynamic that uh you know can really get people to FOMO in.
1:10:57
Um uh apparently the foreign firms declined to invest because they couldn't see a clear path to recouping their money.
1:11:05
It's never stopped a western capital allocator from investing before to be clear.
1:11:10
opening eyes like we're gonna we're gonna you you didn't they come out with some like perspectives that was like at a certain point when you're raising Yeah.
1:11:18
you know tens of billions of dollars you basically have to tell people like we see no path to we see no realistic path to like recouping this investment.
1:11:26
Oh just like safe harbor stuff. Yeah. Safe harbor stuff. Yeah. Yeah. Maybe. Maybe.
1:11:30
I mean I think the projections are pretty pretty aggressive but yeah. Yeah. Yeah.
1:11:34
No, it's it's we're going to lose money and then we will be the only uh you know profit center in the entire world basically. Yeah, good strategy.
1:11:46
Um yeah, so uh anyways, he says for now, yeah, yeah, that's it.
1:11:52
He says, "For now, uh Leong appears to be sticking to the vision he expressed in a rare interview in 2023.
1:11:57
We don't do applications.
1:11:57
We just do research and exploration."
1:11:59
He said then yeah I mean I I think the real way to like kind of understand what's actually going on with DeepSeek is like you have to benchmark its uh app store performance as you just did.
1:12:09
They're at 47 42 something like that.
1:12:11
No 21 21 uh you have to benchmark that against what happened with Tik Tok.
1:12:17
happened with Tik Tok. Um, I'm sure Tik Tok was number one in the app store for a little bit and then dropped down and then but the question is like will it regain momentum and will it continue to become dominant and will there be some
1:12:30
sort of economy or or durable growth engine like we saw with Tik Tok there were there were a series of strate growth strategies that really drove it into the significant penetration of the western market and that was first and foremost um you know a unique feature. You could not make a lip-s sync video
1:12:49
You could not make a lip-s sync video with with uh like IP protected music very easily on Instagram or Snapchat.
1:12:59
And so you would download just like you downloaded Instagram to do photo filters and then it happened every photo that you filtered it would happen to post and then you would share that photo elsewhere.
1:13:08
Maybe you'd save your camera roll and share it elsewhere.
1:13:10
Maybe upload it on Facebook but it was shared to the social network.
1:13:14
Same thing happened with with Tik Tok.
1:13:15
Then it became, okay, well, now they're advertising on Facebook and Snapchat very aggressively bringing in new users. Yeah.
1:13:24
And then finally they created the creator fund.
1:13:26
And so all of a sudden the power law creators on Tik Tok had jobs, had like businesses.
1:13:31
And so you had people like Charlie Demilio and uh there were a whole ton of these creators that would get a slice based on how much traffic and how much how many views they were getting.
1:13:41
They were getting tons of views.
1:13:42
They weren't getting paid a ton, but they were making enough quitting their jobs and going all and then also just creating the dream of this new American dream of like if you have an idea or you're good at dancing or you're hot or you have anything going on, you can get on TikTok if you go viral enough times, you will start getting a corporate athlete. You remember that guy?
1:14:02
This was one of the first probably creators that we sort of like reated.
1:14:07
We thought it was more funny than I think anyone else. What's the guy's name? I have no idea.
1:14:11
I I I I never remember the name of a short form creator ever. Yeah. It's just weird. Podcasters.
1:14:17
The only thing you remember you remember their bit.
1:14:19
This guy who would he would wake up and he'd be like running and he'd be like, "Yeah, lock in that whole thing."
1:14:25
No, I know exactly who you're talking about.
1:14:26
I don't remember his name because it was just like so ethereal.
1:14:29
Uh it's it's very much like like Tik Tok and the short form stuff is very much like uh bathroom graffiti.
1:14:35
It's like everyone sees it, no one remembers it. Yeah.
1:14:37
one remembers it. Yeah. just like high high traffic but it doesn't like make a statement as opposed to you know a two-hour Christopher Nolan film like leaves an impression on people even if less people see it has like a profound effect or a really good TED talk or a
1:14:50
really good TED talk we talked we looked at the data we talked to the experts the Sam TED talk is very memorable it's one of the greatest comedy bits of all time like it's it's very very funny um anyway um should we do uh car technology driving people crazy. Should we move on
1:15:08
Should we move on to the timeline?
1:15:10
What do you think, Jordy?
1:15:10
I'm down to hit this and then let's get into the timeline. Okay. Yeah.
1:15:13
So, you know, we're car people here. We like talking cars.
1:15:15
We like talking trends in cars.
1:15:17
We're big advocates for the next Tesla Roadster having a naturally aspirated V8 with a gated manual shifter.
1:15:24
Uh we're we're willing it.
1:15:26
We're going to make it happen.
1:15:26
We're going to have Elon on the show eventually and we're going to confront him about that, recommend it to him, and I think we have a winner on our hands if he can get that across the line.
1:15:32
There's been a lot of talk about, oh, Tesla Tesla's down 36%. last month. How do you get back? Gated, man. V12. Exactly.
1:15:41
Anyway, uh door handles used to be simple.
1:15:43
Now they are another piece of technology that can fail.
1:15:45
Drivers are finding that they wish the smart technology in their cars was just a bit dumber.
1:15:49
Automakers have added new features uh in 2020s that go beyond touchscreens, assisted driving systems, and companion phone apps.
1:15:55
Some vehicles come with infrared night vision and seasonal ambient light lighting and interior fan cams that show rear passengers.
1:16:03
That's obviously for kids, but um many drivers say it's too much.
1:16:07
The share that had positive feelings about intuitiveness of their car controls fell from 79% in 2015 to 56% in 2024.
1:16:15
The perfect car, the perfect car was the Porsche 911, the 997 generation manual. You sit inside.
1:16:24
It's it's, you know, relatively high performance vehicle.
1:16:27
It's not a track star or anything like that, but it's it's, you know, it's sporty. It's fun.
1:16:33
It's not There's nothing over the top or anything like that.
1:16:35
Every, you know, everything is just like ultra utilitarian.
1:16:38
Everything's super solid.
1:16:40
You can leave it in the sun forever.
1:16:42
Nothing's going to happen to the seats. It's perfect car.
1:16:43
Um and today you have a situation where um I uh actually have a funny story about that.
1:16:51
I I bought the car on Bring a Trailer uh during in 2021, sold it at a profit like a couple years later, but took ETH for it. Really?
1:17:02
I had a buddy who was like, "Would you like can I like buy it like with ETH?" I was like, "Yeah, sure. Fine." ETH dropped like 20 20%.
1:17:11
So, I basically round I round trip back to the original purchase price.
1:17:16
But uh to compare that to today, the um one of the most annoying like the the most annoying thing about my cars are the smart features. So the G63 Yeah.
1:17:26
Um there's this feature where uh when I turn it on, it automatically has a lane keeping assist they call it. Sure.
1:17:34
Which you have to manually turn off every single time, which is like a small That's so weird.
1:17:40
Normally you have to turn it on.
1:17:41
No, it's it's default on and it's and it is a truly terrible feature.
1:17:43
you're driving and if and and I drive you I'm in Malibu so to get out of Malibu I have to take these sort of like one or two lane you know canyon roads and so if you go slightly off of the road it it breaks like one of the wheel like it's this very weird experience where it just sort of like has this breaking effect that just slams you back onto the road and it's the most jarring experience.
1:18:07
It's never when you actually would want it.
1:18:11
And then the other thing is you have to turn on the you have to turn off the thing that shuts the engine off when you're at a stoplight.
1:18:16
And that's like you know about this.
1:18:18
This is like the EPA rules where new cars have to have this feature.
1:18:23
Also, if you put your car in sport mode, you now the EPA requires that when you start the car, it starts in eco mode or like comfort mode.
1:18:30
It can't start in the mode. Yeah.
1:18:32
You used to be able to start a 911 in sport mode.
1:18:35
In sport mode and just leave it at that dial proper country.
1:18:37
We used to be a proper country.
1:18:41
I think the real the real the real sad thing here is that, you know, a lot of the premium features have trickled down.
1:18:47
You know, you get like heated and cooled seats in like a Hyundai these days, but uh some of the really important features have not trickled down.
1:18:52
I'm talking about, you know, doors that go up. Doors that go up. That should be standard. Should be standard.
1:18:59
Also, the champagne fridge in the back of the Rolls-Royce with with the champagne flute thing that grabs them so that so that as you're going around a corner, your champagne flute doesn't fall over.
1:19:08
They should be available in a Honda and for some reason it hasn't made it.
1:19:12
Uh but yeah, totally ignoring customer demands. I agree. Yeah, I agree.
1:19:18
Uh anyway, uh people are having problems with battery electric vehicles.
1:19:23
Uh owners of EVs reported their door handles being difficult to open at a rate of 3.
1:19:28
1 problems per 100 vehicles, up from 02.
1:19:32
It's like your door should always open unless you have a G Wagon.
1:19:37
Well, then it's hard to close, right? It's not hard to open.
1:19:40
Yeah, that's the real tell.
1:19:40
The real the real tell is if anybody has spent time in LA is if they know how to close a Gwagon door for for those who haven't really slam it. You have to out there.
1:19:51
Uh you know, if she knows how to close a Gwagon door, just work on yourself. Focus on yourself.
1:20:00
Uh, we've changed door handles from being a problemfree experience to now they pop out whenever the owner approaches and we're seeing all these problems. Yeah. Uh, all all good reason. Yeah. This is super annoying.
1:20:10
I I walk out of my garage. Yeah.
1:20:11
And my uh like my 911 just like completely like turns on.
1:20:18
Like it throws the lights on.
1:20:18
It throws like the the the handle open.
1:20:20
I'm like I'm just grabbing the mail. Relax.
1:20:25
It just knows you're there. Yeah. Yeah.
1:20:28
Anyway, um you know, and this is the same thing with smart homes today where I have yesterday. Yeah.
1:20:33
Uh I hit the remote for my blinds in my kitchen and it didn't didn't move. I'm like, "Oh, great." I'm pressing it again.
1:20:42
I'm like playing around with the remote. Yeah.
1:20:44
Uh I finally like walked like close to it and it worked.
1:20:49
But I was like I was just not my blinds were just gonna be down until I could find somebody that like specializes in smart homes to just come over and like figure out what's broken.
1:20:59
And I'm like that's so annoying versus just like going like I I I think I'm very bullish on the sort of analog home experience of like you know you flip a switch, you have a you know something that doesn't need batteries that you can like change the heater.
1:21:11
You know I don't need a remote for my fireplace.
1:21:13
It's not like I'm not in my bedroom being like I really want to like, you know, turn on the my fireplace.
1:21:19
Like there's something beautiful about analog products.
1:21:21
This is somewhat of a boomer take, but I think that I think that there is something real about like technology introducing more friction over time.
1:21:30
and it's been captured in some sci-fi like I don't know if you've seen well you probably haven't seen Fifth Element uh or uh Demolition Man, but they both paint a picture of the future where basically like all the smart features are like very inconvenient and so Sylvester Stallone is like in Demolition Man getting like fined every time he swears and there's like he can't get like that.
1:21:54
Yeah, actually we'd be bullish on that.
1:21:56
Um and then it would get boring quickly.
1:21:58
And then in Fifth Element, he lives in this like pod and it like deploys like like you you have been you have three points left.
1:22:04
It's like super connected world and like he's like trying to quit smoking and it gives him like one cigarette out of this like disposer and stuff. Uh it's very funny. Anyway, great movies.
1:22:13
You should see a film sometime. Jordy, I'll watch one.
1:22:16
You should watch a movie for your first movie.
1:22:17
That would be I have I have been enjoying uh the new White Lotus. Oh yeah. I I'm caught up.
1:22:24
very cliche to watch, but it's just watching the first everybody was like, "Okay, the first few episodes were boring and then last night's really got deranged.
1:22:32
It it, you know, the dad is developing this sort of like drug addiction and like the mom is also, you know, and it's just all like you can tell it's just like starting to fully unwind." Yeah.
1:22:41
I find that like I like somebody was asking me like, "Oh, like was it a good episode?"
1:22:45
And I was kind of like, "Did you mean just starting in the middle?"
1:22:48
Saying like your No, no, no, no, no.
1:22:50
Like like so yeah the really deranged way to watch white watch random episodes.
1:22:55
Uh no no like like like cuz I I hadn't watched any and then I was in Tahoe and had some free time away from kids so I catch up.
1:23:01
I watch the first three then episode 4 premieres.
1:23:03
I watch it and a friend asks me how was episode 4 and I say like ah I thought it was great.
1:23:09
Like it's the same as all of them.
1:23:10
Like does it but does anything happen?
1:23:12
because people are saying like it's a little slow and I was like it kind of happens at the same rate in every episode but more importantly it's just such a lovely place to like hang out. It's like beautiful. It's intriguing. It's chaotic.
1:23:22
There's like all these little vignettes.
1:23:24
Like I don't need there to be like some really major plot point.
1:23:28
Like I that's why Succession was such a hit is because it was allowing people to be immersed Yeah.
1:23:33
in your everyday lifestyle. Exactly. Exactly. Yeah.
1:23:37
I mean, White Lotus is like basically about the Aman, right? Yeah.
1:23:42
Like it's like the Aman hasn't actually Yeah.
1:23:46
They haven't actually done it at an Aman. Yeah.
1:23:47
They've done it at four seasons, I think.
1:23:49
It's that level of But but that's like the vibe and so it's a very funny like way to poke fun.
1:23:55
The the guy who wrote White Lotus actually went to my high school, Mike White. Very cool.
1:23:58
Yeah, we should have him on talk about business of White Lotus. Did you guys overlap? No. Come on.
1:24:07
He's like 50 now or something.
1:24:07
Like this guy's like a Hollywood legend. Like he's not like Yeah. young. Okay.
1:24:14
I know you think I'm I know you think I'm old, but I'm not that old. Come on.
1:24:18
I mean, he he he directed School of Rock, which a film I'm sure you haven't seen, but came out in like mid 2000s.
1:24:25
You know, I've seen School of Rock. You see School of Rock?
1:24:26
That's a that's a that's a class. Yeah.
1:24:28
The the teacher in there based on my Latin teacher, actually. So, really? Yeah. That's cool.
1:24:34
I I would go to rock band camp every summer and it was basically that. What would you play?
1:24:39
I would uh guitar and and I would sing. Oh, really? Yeah, that's cool.
1:24:44
Can you can you blast like a lick on the guitar?
1:24:46
If we had like an electric guitar here cuz we've been talking about soundboard.
1:24:49
Maybe we just get you a guitar and like whenever I could actually have it just strapped up always here and just being Yeah.
1:24:55
Just like when a founder comes on and they're we're interviewing them and you just want to play the you know I have the size gong.
1:25:00
I play the gong on this show. You play the guitar.
1:25:02
I had one one moment that I'll always remember.
1:25:06
We do this rock band camp and there's all this prep and then at the end of the summer you play this like live performance for all of your extended, you know, all the other kids in camp and all this stuff with your band of five people and our lead singer, I was a backup singer.
1:25:20
Our lead singer didn't show up. Yeah.
1:25:22
For the perform like got cold feet.
1:25:24
It was this big group and I had to like go founder mode for the band just like I had to sing it.
1:25:30
But it was like it was like a foreign person singing like western karaoke.
1:25:31
It was just like the right sounds but like didn't quite I just like didn't I didn't you know it was like five minutes beforehand that I fig. Oh well. Yeah.
1:25:40
I think we need a guitar. No.
1:25:43
I've been playing a lot of uh I've been playing a lot of uh like dinosaur themed renditions of like picture like John Mayer meets dinosaurs playing it for my son. Yeah. Great.
1:25:54
Uh, they've been do you know enough like power chords just to like jam and it sounds like vaguely like Blink182 or something like that? Yeah.
1:26:01
You know how you know like the basic and then you work it together? That's great.
1:26:04
Like the Suzuki method more or less. Yeah. Yeah.
1:26:06
I play piano but I only learned like how to play like the sheet music.
1:26:10
So I knew you got too into the symphony.
1:26:12
So for you it was more euphoric to just be immersed in it versus to even play the notes yourself. Exactly.
1:26:19
You could have been a conductor.
1:26:20
Another great I mean I named my dog after a conductor Gustavo Dudl. Really? Yeah. That's great.
1:26:27
Lord His Instagram handle is real Gustavo Dudl. It's great. Yeah.
1:26:32
And people get confused often.
1:26:33
John's dog had more followers.
1:26:36
And the conductor of the He used to be the conductor of the LAFL.
1:26:39
Gustava Dudl is aware of the dog because people will see the dog because the dog has like almost as many followers as the actual conductor cuz I grinded up the account to like 20k and and and the conductor has like had like a hundred at the time and so like people would like let him know and we were all in LA so we'd run into people and be like oh yeah like that's the dog friends with the conductor. Yeah. What do you ever say?
1:27:01
Would you ever say I'd love to have your I'd love to have your dog Gustavo in attendance. Yes.
1:27:05
at at we considered we considered bringing him.
1:27:08
We we had season tickets for a while. We got to go back.
1:27:11
It's right down the street from the capital of capital, the fortress of finance, Disney Hall.
1:27:15
We got I think I think we both came to the conclusion that this uh What's the next boy trip?
1:27:23
This article is not that interesting.
1:27:25
It's not that interesting. I agree.
1:27:26
Anyway, let's move on to some post timeline and some ads.
1:27:28
Of course, I know that's what you've really been waiting for, the advertisements.
1:27:32
Just because it's a Dom episode means doesn't mean we're not going to do some ads. Come on people.
1:27:37
Uh Tyler says, "This is a really deep understanding how VC works tweet.
1:27:44
The headline is cursor raises hundreds of millions at 10 billion.
1:27:47
Are these investors visionary or crazy?
1:27:49
That is because we intuitively assume that those investors lose money if cursor is ultimately worth less than 10 billion. But that's not true.
1:27:57
They just don't make money.
1:27:59
to get the point to get to the point where investors actually lose money, the compu the company's valuation needs to fall below the amount raised.
1:28:07
So if you're investing in this round, here are your outcomes.
1:28:09
Cursor exits at greater than 10 billion, you make money.
1:28:14
Cursor exits at greater than 300 million to 10 billion, you get your money back.
1:28:18
Cursor exits um at under 300 million, you lose your money.
1:28:22
uh from a decision-making perspective that changes the discussion from is this worth 10 billion to what is the likelihood that this is worth 20 to 50 billion in a few years and to be clear that's good.
1:28:33
I think it's a very good thing for us to have risk capital that is both cleareyed and focused on the potential for growth and then there's some uh there's some assumptions here.
1:28:43
Uh what do you think Jordi? Why' you like this?
1:28:44
It's a good breakdown of the cursor deal.
1:28:46
I mean I'm sure a lot of people know about this you can write it down.
1:28:50
founders understand this because they've run the calculus where they're like if I I mean Jeremy was on last week and was talking about this.
1:28:57
They don't usually run the calculus until series A or B. Yeah.
1:28:58
I find No, but I mean they they intuitively understand, okay, you raise $10 million sell for $10 million, you're going to make zero dollars. Yep.
1:29:08
Um, and Jeremy talked about this last week talking about founders that have 10 million of ARR, but they raised $200 million and they're growing at 30% which means that they could grow for another five years, sell the company and still make zero dollars, right?
1:29:24
Unless you get really creative.
1:29:25
Like there are plenty of stories with aqua hires where the the investors get hosed and the founders get really like egregious pay packages. Yeah.
1:29:36
at big companies and a lot of found a lot of funds are really upset by that depending on their structure.
1:29:40
Some funds don't care because they're like yeah like like oh okay yeah we wrote down 10 million whatever. Yeah.
1:29:45
Like we're we're we're just happy for you to go on to the next thing.
1:29:49
Call us when you leave and get your earn out and do the next thing. Yeah.
1:29:53
Um make it all make it all back on one term. But it's delicate.
1:29:56
It is it is risky and and and you usually I would say it's the employees that are most frustrated by that because they're like the structure of the earnout.
1:30:07
Well, sure, but I'm just saying uh I know a situation of a very high-profile company that sold in 2021 and the the price of the acquisition was like way too low for the traction of the company. Yep.
1:30:20
But the CEO got this like ridiculously large like incentive package at the new company and all the CEOs like didn't even get all the employees most of the employees didn't get the opportunity to join the inquir and so they were frustrated because they're like we worked all this time for this equity and then you you are the only one that got the everyone just has to feel like it's fair. Yeah.
1:30:39
And and I thought this was I thought this was worth highlighting of people like everybody's trying to pick apart oh is cursor's revenue durable?
1:30:46
It's it's so easy to switch off.
1:30:48
You've got YC partners like promoting wind surf. Sure. All this stuff.
1:30:53
And this is the right framework to be, you know, it sounds like Thrive and and Kushner y are doing this new round.
1:31:00
Hasn't been formally announced yet, but it's not so crazy to price it that way.
1:31:06
And it's possible that Curser I would imagine Kurser is in a position where they don't need money.
1:31:11
So they're saying if you want to own a piece of this company, you got to pay. This is the case.
1:31:15
And if you're investing in this company and you think you could get a two or 3x on this, if you're putting in $300 million, it's a great it's a great it's not necessarily a slam dunk grand slam venture return, but you're going to return potentially hundreds of millions of dollars off of a single investment.
1:31:32
And it's and and your downside is is relatively protected if you think that cursor in a bare case scenario could sell for $300 million.
1:31:42
And I would and I would argue that I would argue that there's a lot of companies on Earth that even if Cursor's revenue dropped dramatically, they would say, "We'll pay $300 million because you have great tech and we can integrate it.
1:31:54
You want a new co-pilot 2. 0 basically. Yeah, interesting.
1:31:57
I mean, there there's a bunch of scenarios where where it could work out, you know, if they're just printing money and they just keep growing the business and they get to high EBIDA, like they could trade at, you know, I don't know, 10xida and get up to Yeah.
1:32:09
you know, a couple hundred million in ibita and be good. Yeah. Right. It's not that crazy.
1:32:13
Uh and then yeah, also all like every hyperscaler might need something that looks like this if they're doing a lot of development or or or running a uh you know, you think like this could fit into AWS and the AWS tech stack.
1:32:26
It could replace GitHub and be GitHub 2. 0 or C-pilot 2. 0. I don't know.
1:32:30
Uh it's certainly a a high valuation, but um exciting for the team that built it and very cool.
1:32:37
We won't know the truth unless we have the full size moment. Size gong moment.
1:32:43
Let's give a cheers for the cursor team. Cheers. Let's down this Jordy. Come on. Down it. I don't know.
1:32:52
I'm going to keep uh nursing it here. The brother. The brother.
1:32:53
Uh well, let's go to Flo. Peer pressure. Do it. Great.
1:32:57
Uh Flo Cllio says, "Just bought 50,000 flower seeds on Amazon.
1:33:00
I'm going to throw them all over the place in San Francisco.
1:33:03
Just a heads up in case you're wondering why everything is suddenly so fl fragrant and beautiful. It'll be me. It'll it'll be all me. Amazing.
1:33:11
I put this in for you, John.
1:33:13
This is very couan coded. Totally.
1:33:13
This is this is what you live for. Yes.
1:33:15
We want to elevate people that are making the world a more beautiful place.
1:33:20
Whether you are making putting flowers everywhere or putting up swings everywhere. Yes.
1:33:23
Um you know, go repave the road. Yeah.
1:33:26
If you're upset with the road in front of your house, just hire private contractors to it. Do it yourself. cement out there. Do it.
1:33:33
No, I I I think smell is underrated in terms of the evaluation of a particular neighborhood.
1:33:39
Uh I've noticed that Beverly Hills smells very nice, but deafening noise pollution from all the Lamborghinis and and M5 competitions.
1:33:51
You you might have something to do with that. Yeah.
1:33:52
Uh no, it's a lot of it's a lot of kids clearly driving like exorbitant sports cars.
1:34:00
Their daily driver to school, the GT3 RS.
1:34:02
And I do think, yeah, I mean, we were talking about the EPA earlier.
1:34:06
Maybe we do need uh, you know, some some quiet modes. Yeah.
1:34:08
But if you can put up enough flowers on either side of the road and and do GMO flowers to get them the size of trees, that' be great.
1:34:15
They could really dampen. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.
1:34:19
Or uh or or maybe just, you know, upgrade from the the Aventadors and the Huracans to 19 spiders because it's a hybrid.
1:34:26
You can drive it in electric only mode. That's great. That's great.
1:34:27
A lot of the new hyperars, supercars, they have an electric drivetrain, so they're hybrids.
1:34:33
You can drive them quietly until you get up into the canyons.
1:34:36
Nobody cares and you can rip.
1:34:36
Uh, thank you, Flo, for your for your work. Thank you, Flo.
1:34:42
I'm excited to see how that pans out.
1:34:44
Visit SF and see the flowers.
1:34:46
Uh, let's go to Kyle Harrison with some news.
1:34:48
Uh, Service Titan is at a 7. 95 billion market cap.
1:34:53
Uh, this is an $8 billion company that started as software for garage door repair people.
1:34:57
TAM is almost always a terrible reason to pass. So, little lore for you.
1:35:03
Uh, in college, I wanted to move to LA. Sure.
1:35:07
I was working on what became my first, you know, company and I was barely making money at the time.
1:35:15
I was making like a couple grand a month and it was like like senior year.
1:35:18
I was like, I don't know if I can actually sort of scale this to the point where I can like pay for rent and food and all this stuff.
1:35:25
So, I interviewed at Service Titan.
1:35:27
First interview went well.
1:35:27
Second interview, thought it went well. They rejected me.
1:35:30
Uh, and I'm sure I would have done actually very well if I obviously I wouldn't have stayed in the wage cage. In the wage cage.
1:35:36
Um, no, just finally, just financially if I just stayed there.
1:35:41
Uh, but I won in the end because that turned, you know, what I was working on turned into a business that, you know, does millions of dollars in revenue to this day.
1:35:47
So, um, you're lost, Service Titan.
1:35:50
But I'm glad though I'm glad they are building, you know, great software for garage door repair.
1:35:58
And I believe they're in LA here. Service. They're in Glendale.
1:36:01
So, right around corner from there.
1:36:03
And great name, like really aggressive name. I love it.
1:36:06
Anyway, let's move on to an ad.
1:36:09
We got an ad from Adquising made easy and measurable.
1:36:11
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1:36:15
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1:36:20
Let's go get yourself a billboard on adqu. Okay.
1:36:25
Speaking speaking of ad company. Yeah.
1:36:27
Uh Ted Turner, founder of CNN, started by running his father's out ofome ad business.
1:36:33
It was basically like Adqu, but they owned easy there, John.
1:36:38
But uh instead of adqu uh doesn't own the underlying in inventory.
1:36:43
There's sort of software layer on top of it.
1:36:45
But Ted Turner's dad had started an out ofome advertising network that uh Ted Turner took over.
1:36:52
And the reason I know that is because I was listening to the founders podcast episode this morning because Reggie uh posted about Ted Turner on Friday.
1:37:01
Reggie Reggie had said uh and this this post analysis is brought to you by Adquick obviously.
1:37:06
Uh he said I've been re he says I've been researching the 80s a bit as a comparison for viewing the world today.
1:37:12
I feel like Ted Turner is such an interesting character.
1:37:14
Founder of CNN which was the start of the 247 news cycle.
1:37:20
Um we restarted it for tech. Yes.
1:37:20
Uh genuinely a futurist in many ways.
1:37:23
My favorite quote from him.
1:37:25
We won't be signing off until the world ends.
1:37:27
We'll be on and we will cover the end of the world live and that will be our very that will be our last event.
1:37:32
But the thing is, he actually made a video made for the last broadcast ever known as the Turner Doomsday video.
1:37:38
It was leaked by an intern and posted on YouTube. That's amazing.
1:37:42
We got to watch that on We should make our own Doomsday video. We should.
1:37:46
And it's just us popping hundreds of bottles.
1:37:48
Not even drinking them, just saying, "Hey, we had the stockpile. It's the doomsday.
1:37:52
We don't need it anymore." Yeah.
1:37:54
What an interesting thinker to do that.
1:37:56
I wonder if there's anyone else who's filmed a doomsday video in tech that hasn't leaked.
1:38:03
Like, is there a Zuck doomsday video or an Elon doomsday video or Sam Alman doomsday video?
1:38:07
It's out there, brothers.
1:38:09
If you're an intern, go find it and leak it.
1:38:11
Put it on YouTube, please.
1:38:12
We will we'll cover your cost of living until you can get rehired by, you know, uh, the next Beanire that you're going to leak their doomsday video. That's great.
1:38:22
Uh, let's move on to Antonio Garcia Martinez.
1:38:24
The hardest to acquire and most exclusive watch in the collection, almost three years in the making.
1:38:29
And it says, "Thank you for being a part of the base team.
1:38:31
This custom Seikko watch designed by our creative team honors precision, reliability, and motion.
1:38:37
Qualities that define base and drive us forward.
1:38:39
Its automatic movement winds with every step a symbol of the momentum we're building together.
1:38:45
Here's to the work we've done and to 2025.
1:38:47
It's time to bring the world on chain. That's great.
1:38:49
Inspired by We still have Oh, the XL watch that said it's time to Oh, it's time to create shareholder value. Yeah. Yeah.
1:38:58
It's time to bring the world on chain. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. A time piece is great.
1:39:01
I was wondering I I got to we got to ask Quaid at Bezel.
1:39:04
Was this factory or is this they just bought it and then they just redid I don't know.
1:39:08
Yeah, I mean sometimes you can swap out the dial uh and just kind of upgrade that.
1:39:12
But of course go to bezel do go to getbzel.
1:39:14
com get a luxury watch, get a Seikko, get a grand seiko, get anything. Get get an FPJ.
1:39:23
We've been looking at we've been looking at uh Ptech uh chronograph stopwatches. Oh yeah.
1:39:29
Because we want the show.
1:39:32
We want to top time the show.
1:39:33
And just looking at your computer clock.
1:39:35
Over 20,000 luxury watches fully authenticated by Bezel's in-house team.
1:39:41
Highly recommend installing the app, surfing, finding something great to add to your collection.
1:39:46
Uh in Tahoe this weekend saw a lot of Apple watches.
1:39:49
It really really harshed the mood, I would say.
1:39:53
Yeah, it would be much better to see something uh more more more fitting of that of that echelon of If you're And it Yeah.
1:40:01
If you're skiing too, where wear your nicest watch.
1:40:04
What do you mean Apple Watch for?
1:40:05
I uh when I was in Switzerland just before New Year's, I saw a guy uh that was just got back from skiing and he took off his gloves and he had like this like uh I think it was the orange the orange aquinaut. Oh, nice.
1:40:19
Uh that that Alex Karp rocks and I was like that's that's great. You know, go out skiing. Love it.
1:40:26
you know, with a six-f figureure watch on shows confidence in your abilities. It's great.
1:40:30
Um, where is this second post?
1:40:37
Um, we got a lot of posts in here we got to go through.
1:40:43
Let's Let's just do this one.
1:40:45
Mount Rushmore at sunset. Let's go.
1:40:45
I just wanted to celebrate Mount Rushmore Rushmore at sunset. Here we go. I got it.
1:40:52
Is this Is this a real picture? It almost looks Yeah. generated. It is.
1:40:55
Do you have this one, Ben?
1:40:57
But we got to we we we got to make a new Mount Rushmore.
1:41:01
We got to more monuments. A lot.
1:41:03
We got to do Where's your Rushmore?
1:41:05
We got to do uh Statue of Liberty on the East Coast. What was it?
1:41:10
Statue of Justice on the West Coast.
1:41:13
Replace uh Alcatraz with a massive statue. I love Mount Rushmore. You've been? It's beautiful. I haven't been. We should go. We should. We should set up.
1:41:24
So, I'd really like to get a a mobile studio, but like set up more like one of those phone phone booths where the truck like drops it off and then leaves.
1:41:33
So, we're just sitting there right in front of Mount Rushmore recording with a nice view of it. Be great.
1:41:39
Um and uh if the police come, we'll just lock the doors and just keep podcasting as long as we have an internet connection. Yeah.
1:41:45
I mean, yeah, just so cool to go blow up some mountains and make some make some faces. So much fun.
1:41:51
Anyway, uh the story that I want to talk about was Orca.
1:41:55
Orca is an energy water uh launched by this guy Michael Moriotti.
1:42:02
13 months ago, he put up this idea and it's now live and available.
1:42:08
150 milligrams of caffeine, zero calories, zero sugar.
1:42:10
Uh and he posted 13 months, four failed production runs, and more stress than we ever imagined. All for the clear can. Worth it? And uh gift of trees.
1:42:20
So to be clear, we covered this last week.
1:42:22
Uh oh, last week we did this.
1:42:25
Remember this is launch video of the guy from High School Musical that was just reading out the signs. Very creative. Very creative. Very fun.
1:42:32
Um but but he's getting dunked on here by Gift of Trees of Drought of Barrel.
1:42:38
Doesn't sound like that person has a uh LinkedIn, but uh we'll read it anyway.
1:42:44
The clear P plastic PET beverage can patent was granted in 2015 to a Polish packaging manufacturing company.
1:42:51
This dude did nothing but pay a beverage contract packer to license the patent and fill it with liquid designed in the c-acker's lab.
1:42:57
And yes, that is exactly true.
1:42:59
That that's how you uh launch a new consumer package.
1:43:02
You go product these days, you go to a c-acker, have them uh make it.
1:43:05
He made the interesting choice of using the clear plastic can, which I want to talk to you about because um on the one hand, it really this really does stand out on the shelf and you could imagine seeing this and and and it would just look different than Celsius, Red Bull, uh you know, monster where they're all aluminum cans, but at the same time, plastic could not be less cool right now. So, yeah. What's your take?
1:43:29
So, I've seen Michael working on this for a long time.
1:43:32
Yeah, I think he's got good instinct and taste.
1:43:34
I think the marketing's been great.
1:43:36
I think the packaging looks cool.
1:43:38
I think the concept of just a clearish energy water like energy water like conceptually is just cool as opposed to like this like looking Red Bull that's green and like it's like what am I drinking?
1:43:50
So energy water is super cool. Yep.
1:43:53
I do believe the actual formulation is difficult to get to the point where it's zero calorie and it tastes good and it's not filled with filled with a bunch of, you know, insane additives. Yep.
1:44:04
I looked at this entire thread, Gift of Trees of Drought of Barrel by Intractable Lion. Yes.
1:44:10
Uh and he's he's a massive hater against people that are not so so I actually looked at the backtory.
1:44:19
So he's a runs ceries where he restores so he restores these sort of legacy uh uh orchards that have been run down and he and his wife so it's like the most craft process not even making the liquid but making the barrels making the trees sustaining the orchard.
1:44:37
So, so he's uh the gift of trees and draw a barrel.
1:44:41
Of course, the gift of trees and draw.
1:44:45
So, I'd like to have this guy on the show to talk about the business of of bespoke cery. That sounds interesting.
1:44:51
But he's a huge hater on this guy Michael for no reason. Yes, I agree.
1:44:55
It's he didn't say I invented the clear plastic.
1:44:59
He said, yeah, if you're making a a caffeinated caffeine has a super bitter taste. Totally. Yeah.
1:45:04
You have to iterate on stuff.
1:45:06
You've got to iterate on it.
1:45:08
Yeah, it's a good thing that they didn't just use the first version that they produced.
1:45:12
And so this this is actually a much longer thread where where Gift of Trees have draw of barrel is just hating on this guy super hard.
1:45:21
And uh I don't it's like just don't buy it. Yeah. Yeah. Just don't buy it. It's fine.
1:45:25
You don't have to buy it.
1:45:25
The beauty of capitalism I think Michael will be dramatically more commercially successful and gift of trees of draw of barrel is upset. I don't know about that.
1:45:36
Is this really a long short trade right now? Who knows?
1:45:38
Maybe they both I'm going long. I'm going long orca. Orca.
1:45:44
I would not invest in gift of trees of drawum barrel. I don't know, man.
1:45:48
I think there might be something to this. He scales this up.
1:45:50
Maybe he starts putting the cider in plastic bottles. Yeah, maybe.
1:45:54
Honestly, here's what I'd like to see. Collab. Work it out. Both come on the show.
1:45:58
We'll negotiate a joint venture. Yeah. And you guys can collab.
1:46:04
Maybe you guys can collab.
1:46:04
Maybe you can find plastic bottles.
1:46:05
Exactly what the world needs.
1:46:09
Bring bring the science project with the trad based stuff together.
1:46:13
It's a match made in heaven. Everyone can be happy.
1:46:15
Uh but Michael does respond and he says, "I wish it had been that easy.
1:46:18
We didn't invent the can.
1:46:19
We spent 13 months figuring out how and who could actually fill them at scale.
1:46:22
At every step, we were told just to switch to a normal can.
1:46:26
Every canning line in the c country is built for aluminum.
1:46:27
Nothing was plug-and-play.
1:46:29
And so yeah, like it is hard at work even to just put something in a can that exists or is patented because the manufacturing supply might not be there.
1:46:37
And and and and this is the, you know, the the unfortunate like struggle and the schle of getting a consumer product to uh to to market.
1:46:44
I mean, you I'm sure you went through it with Aurora where you're like, okay, there's like a million different manufacturing decisions to make and we want to maintain our brand values and what we're doing.
1:46:56
No, there's there's and there's a bunch of trade-offs.
1:46:57
I distinctly remember when uh my co-founders Brian and Charlie, we got the visual that looked almost identical to this and then there were still like 10,000 decisions to be made and and Bri, both Brian and Charlie were just like, you know, incredibly in the weeds on every single one.
1:47:17
They're all very high stakes and, you know, there's so many small setbacks and things like that.
1:47:22
So, uh, that that's the beauty of the reason that beverage attracts so many sort of new entrepreneurs is that it's this super tangible idea of I can see it in my head.
1:47:34
I can put the right ingredients in the can and then I'm going to sell it. Yep.
1:47:37
And it's just so much harder. It's a widgets business. Yeah.
1:47:39
But at the same time, it for a long time software was super like high status because it was so complicated.
1:47:45
You had to understand C++ or Java or Python and deployment and AWS and servers and all this stuff.
1:47:52
And now it's been like, "Oh, well, you can vibe code a flight simulator in a day."
1:47:56
Uh, but it takes 13 months to put caffeine in a can. Yeah.
1:48:01
It's like kind of kind of weird, but we're kind of flipping.
1:48:03
And this is like the bits and Adams thing.
1:48:04
Um, bits just move faster. Yeah.
1:48:06
Uh, so good luck, Michael.
1:48:09
Send us send us some product if you see this.
1:48:11
But I'd love to There's a um uh my wife invested in a company. Yeah.
1:48:17
Uh that at like a like a five cap. Yep.
1:48:22
that put olive oil in a plastic bottle. Yep.
1:48:24
And it's up 50x uh in in like two something years. Great.
1:48:30
Um and so just something as simple as you know as sort of in this case novel product energy water in a new form in a new bottle.
1:48:39
It's very possible this is wildly successful.
1:48:42
It's funny seeing him gripe about production because wait until you try and go into retail, buddy.
1:48:49
It's going to be because you have to change everything retail generally. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.
1:48:54
Just like actually getting retail distribution on this is going to be a thousand times more frustrating.
1:48:59
No, not that he can't do it and it won't be difficult, but it's going to be a lot more just unreasonable.
1:49:04
Basically, you have to pay us to put this on our shelf. Oh, totally.
1:49:08
totally. like every deal's bespoke and you're competing with Alani New and Celsius and Red Bull and uh they all have monopolies and they all want hey we want to keep our yerba mate on the on on the shelf and you're competing against every other company and and that's really where the game is won like Graza
1:49:22
the olive oil company has won because they're in every store now um it I'm sure they're doing great on e-commerce but uh that company is not a 50x return if they don't figure out retail and retail is hard and a shle and it's something that is probably going to make these four failed production runs look like the easy mode. Anyway, good
1:49:40
Anyway, good luck to you, Michael, and send us some.
1:49:45
We'd love to We'd love to try it.
1:49:45
Uh, should we go to Max Meer?
1:49:46
Before that, I'd like to do a promoted ad. Let's do it.
1:49:51
So, we have uh from Jose, highass and tasteful.
1:49:55
Uh, and he doesn't even do any type of review.
1:50:00
He just does the headline which is high class and tasteful.
1:50:04
Five stars and he jumps right into the ad which is very aggressive. Yeah. What is this?
1:50:08
But potentially a smart move because most people have been putting it.
1:50:11
So he says variable and early stage company HQed in Dallas helps manufacturers scale efficiently with a flexible ondemand labor model.
1:50:17
This gives US manufacturers a competitive edge over China without relying on AI sweat shops or bloatware staffing pro platforms like Traba. Hey taking shots.
1:50:29
Mike's a friend of the show, but um uh you know, sometimes attack ads are are uh are effective.
1:50:35
V variable optimize your labor, eliminates low uh or OT work, boost productivity, and tracks key metrics. Visit variable ops.
1:50:43
com and tell them to give Jose a raise.
1:50:45
So, he's just taking the initiative.
1:50:48
He's he's not the founder, but he's getting out there.
1:50:50
So, uh I'm going to go there and just tell them to give Jose a raise. Good guy.
1:50:56
Even though I don't think we're qualified unless we need to get unless we need to get unless we need to get Ben.
1:51:01
Yeah, we gota test drive that product. Ben, where are you? Oh, he's there.
1:51:05
Um, and one more review while we're at it.
1:51:08
This is hard power, soft beliefs in my review of Technology Brothers.
1:51:13
TBPN is the seminal technology podcast of our day.
1:51:15
John and Jordy exemplify the human desire to create and contribute to a product that is bigger than the self, a devotion to the aesthetic.
1:51:22
And for that, I'm grateful to the brotherhood.
1:51:24
This five-star review is brought to you by Techno Republic on X, a new project that shares the best quotes and ideas from Alexander Karp's book, The Technological Republic.
1:51:31
Follow Techno Repub on X today to join your fellow brothers building the future of the West. Uh, very cool.
1:51:39
I'm going to go I'm going to go follow this right now. Fantastic.
1:51:43
And uh, thank you for the review, Tech.
1:51:45
While you're doing that, we'll move over to Max Meyer, also another publisher similar to Alex Garp, actually works with a another Palunteer co-founder uh over at ABC.
1:51:55
Max Meer says airports these days are the perfect picture of American affluenza.
1:52:04
The US upperish class has too much money, but never enough.
1:52:07
Lots of suspicious pre-borders.
1:52:09
teens in designer clothes, $500 headphones muttering what to flight staff.
1:52:15
There are like 50 people in boarding group one now as well.
1:52:19
You can see the confusion on people's faces who've clearly been boarding first for a while who now wait 20 minutes standing just to have their spot in line. The lounges are overrun.
1:52:30
And again, you can see the exasperation on the faces of people waiting for them, thinking they'd paid for a service and realizing that now it's like Disneyland.
1:52:38
Prices across the board have gone up and demand keeps up.
1:52:40
This is one of the main effects of mass affluence.
1:52:42
I guess airline taxes are as high as ever and as a result actual budget flights allan air are not allowed.
1:52:52
At this point a budget flight is anything under $300.
1:52:56
People are amazingly unforgiving.
1:52:59
They get violent looks in their eyes when staff announce that overhead bin space will run out.
1:53:02
For many flyers, being asked to check a bag is like being asked for one of their kidneys.
1:53:07
So many people look at children like they're rodents that have infiltrated the house rather than the our treasures and our futures. He's such a good writer.
1:53:16
Uh parents are the scapegoat of every flight.
1:53:21
Funny enough, the TSA feels like the one thing that has gotten better.
1:53:26
Maybe I choose my airports and flying times well, but I don't remember the last time I waited more than 15 minutes to get through.
1:53:30
Sometimes the clear line is comically longer than the regular line next to it.
1:53:34
And for whatever reason, people will just not move over to the shorter line.
1:53:37
It's pretty rare to see actual balling, brawling, but you do hear about those things.
1:53:42
As a writer and Chronicle of America, this entropy interests me. Uh yeah, interesting.
1:53:49
Basically an ad for private jets.
1:53:51
I completely agree with you, Max.
1:53:54
Uh everyone should be flying in a G650 ER ideally.
1:53:56
Um maybe a We're going to have that.
1:53:58
We're going to have that super intelligence.
1:54:00
Yes, that's one of the things Sam Alman's gone on record.
1:54:04
He says exactly if Ma is able to do this round.
1:54:08
Everyone has a private jet obviously. Yeah. So, problem solved soon.
1:54:14
Figure allegedly is training their robots to build PJs.
1:54:15
Actually, you won't even need to and mine the ore needed to create the jet. Fantastic.
1:54:22
You buy your figure for 20 grand, it'll actually build you a Gulfream.
1:54:25
And that's coming in 12 to 18 months, right? Yes. Perfect. Perfect. Okay, great. Just just after the IPO. Yeah.
1:54:32
Just just after the next fund raise. It'll be here. Great.
1:54:34
Uh well, that's fantastic. Um let's move on.
1:54:39
Aby Shiffman back on the show.
1:54:39
We got to have him on live soon.
1:54:41
He says, "Companies should shut down when the founder leaves." Pretty good take. Yeah.
1:54:51
Uh yeah, I mean Ben Thompson has an interesting take on this.
1:54:53
They and they should uh if a founder passes away, they should just like it should shut down in solidarity. In solidarity. Dead man switch.
1:55:03
If I die, my company goes with me.
1:55:05
Uh no, I mean uh Ben Thompson has a take on this which is basically like like companies do not need to go on forever.
1:55:10
So it's actually okay for a company to be in kind of its late stage and just dividend all the profits until it's like done.
1:55:16
This is kind of what's happening with like the cigarette companies like like literally no one is no one like new smokers are not emerging. The market is shrinking.
1:55:21
They just increase the price on the on the reducing customer base and over time they they make the same amount of revenue but their cash flows are steady and so they're just going to like whittle down basically and they all have plans of like oh we'll get into the new markets but none of them are doing that well in the new alternative market.
1:55:38
And so a lot of people are just like, well, they dividend a lot. They they they pay out.
1:55:44
And so, you know, if you have, you know, Altra is a hundred billion dollar company.
1:55:48
If you invest right now and you get $150 billion in cash returned to you over the next five years or something like that could be a good that could that could be a good deal.
1:55:58
Even if even if the value of the stock is zero at the end, like it's fine. Yeah.
1:56:01
So I I I think I think I think Avi dropping these uh they're thoughtprovoking. Totally.
1:56:12
And I think there's some value to that. Yeah, it's fun. Good poster.
1:56:13
Uh Tim Susman says, "We invested in a YC startup a week ago.
1:56:19
Their revenue growth was so high it would have been crazy to ignore it.
1:56:23
Just saw them in alumni demo day.
1:56:25
They doubled their revenue in the past week. Let's go. That's exciting.
1:56:30
We're we're very Oh yeah. And a cheers. Let's size gong that.
1:56:32
Let's cheers the Dom Pering.
1:56:33
Um, and we have some YC news that we'll be sharing.
1:56:38
We will be at demo day in just a few days.
1:56:40
I was gonna say we're gonna share it tomorrow.
1:56:41
Um, well, we'll be there.
1:56:44
Well, we're going to announce what we're going to be doing there in tomorrow, I guess.
1:56:47
Um, but let's move on to uh Windsurf sharing a uh a video from YC uh from their light cone podcast. Jason.
1:56:57
So, Windinsurf says, "Not every day you wake up to a shout out from Y Combinator."
1:57:02
Jared Freeman explains why founders are switching to Windsurf.
1:57:05
Is Windsfur a YC company or are they just like loved by YC? I don't know.
1:57:09
We'll have to figure it out.
1:57:10
The the fact that the partner was coming out and taking such a strong stand makes you think.
1:57:17
Anyway, Jason Lmin says, "Brutal competition always comes to software.
1:57:23
Partners become competitors. Collaborators compete.
1:57:27
Usually it takes a few years though to get real.
1:57:29
AI is accelerating at the pace an order of magnitude in coding and contact center already. Huh.
1:57:35
I can't really understand that.
1:57:38
Uh will it do the same to your category? Interesting.
1:57:43
Um so yeah, I mean like I don't even understand.
1:57:46
A lot of people a lot of people were pushing back on this saying if you don't think that cursor indexes your codebase, you haven't used it.
1:57:53
But indexes your codebase.
1:57:55
Oh, like pulls it in as like training data.
1:57:57
I mean, there there's just like layers and layers to this fight right now.
1:58:01
There's like the cursor versus wind surf debate, but then there's also the cursor versus claude code debate that's happening. Yeah. Will it all commoditize? Who knows? Yeah.
1:58:12
Anyway, all Gill is in the Gundo wondering if he should get some curls and Zin in.
1:58:16
He also really wants a mustache.
1:58:19
This place may have changed me forever.
1:58:21
I like I love when a new size lord capital allocator takes the Gundo tour.
1:58:25
You know, Augustus took them around.
1:58:28
I'm sure introduced him to everyone else.
1:58:30
Uh little bit of a controversial post because he spells Zin wrong. It's Zynn.
1:58:36
He said Cyn and also in the Gundo man.
1:58:36
I mean, this is like, you know, highest penetration place in the world for Lucy.
1:58:44
So Zen's kind of out there.
1:58:44
Got to get on the next generation of products when it comes to nicotine.
1:58:48
But um you should do some curls and some bench press and you should uh you know basically just wind down your podcast, become a size lord, become a mass monster and go for your IFBB pro card.
1:59:00
Uh I've met you and I think you have it. It's got what it takes.
1:59:04
I think you can get diced.
1:59:04
Get big and do the the the Mount Rushmore of the West. Yes. Next topic.
1:59:09
Uh my uh dear friend, my oldest friend um called me last night. Okay.
1:59:18
like long after I went to bed. I go to bed very early. Yes.
1:59:20
So, I saw it this morning and uh he just joined the chat on YouTube and said, "Hey, Jordy."
1:59:24
He just called me and I told him, "I'm I'm live right now. I can't talk."
1:59:28
And he said, "Uh, in the chat, uh, I wanted to let you know I got engaged." So, congratulations.
1:59:34
Cheers to to Cody and his lovely fiance, Emily.
1:59:37
And, um, uh, congratulations, Cody. I love you.
1:59:46
and uh if we ever need a financial model, he is the guy to go to.
1:59:48
Right now, we're just sort of vibe coding our finance, but um absolute finance, Chad. And uh congratulations.
1:59:56
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I was miserable the last two nights honestly at the Ritz Carlton which not a bad hotel.
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They don't have eight sleeps and it was miserable.
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Uh it was it was not a fun experience.
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Uh this morning I it was so I woke up Yeah. 4:45. Yeah.
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It's effectively 3:45 according to my brain. It's completely dead. It's the dead of night. Yeah.
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And you know what I thought to myself?
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I thought, "Thank God for eight.
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and uh get to experience the the sort of feeling warming effect uh in the morning.
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It really makes waking up so easy. It's crazy.
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And the vibration alarm clock. I don't do that one. You got to try it. You got to try it. Yeah. It's subtle. I I I've tried it.
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I I I just The warm works for me. It's subtle.
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Well, anyway, go check it out.
2:01:23
Uh let's move on to the Optify Kids.
2:01:25
This is the uh YC company that was cancelled briefly, but they're back.
2:01:31
Uh they created uh sweatshop software essentially.
2:01:36
Uh that was a critique of them, but they leaned in.
2:01:38
They went direct and they printed t-shirts that say justice for worker 17.
2:01:42
And Spore says the Optify kids are going to be all right.
2:01:48
They're having fun with it.
2:01:48
They clearly realized that their first message didn't resonate. They turned it around.
2:01:54
And I cannot wait to talk to these guys because I think they're having fun and I and I love it.
2:01:58
Yeah, we're going to talk to them Wednesday. Yeah. And it was great.
2:02:00
So, uh, love Justice for Worker 17.
2:02:04
Uh, creating a lot of fun on the timeline, a lot of a great meme and, uh, still just so funny that that that happened, all the back and forth.
2:02:13
Uh, but they had a good time and I think they I I think this is the right way to handle it.
2:02:16
They they they didn't put out some graveling post saying like, "We're sorry."
2:02:20
Oh, they just like they they kind of took a breather.
2:02:24
I think if anything it will be helpful because every investor at the very least will want to talk to them from the novelty for the novelty of talking to the Yeah.
2:02:32
the legends that made that video. The legends.
2:02:35
And I mean we and we talked about this before like there's so many things that you could tweak in that presentation and that software that would be beneficial.
2:02:41
And I mean they created such a meme that someone built an optify clone for PMF or die. It's fully functional. It's fully functional. You can go to pmferdai.
2:02:53
xyz and see the productivity of the two guys that are in the cage right now, Blake and Patty.
2:02:57
Uh, and so you can check it out and it's it's it's hilarious that somebody built that so fast.
2:03:03
Uh, but I mean it helps when they're live streaming constantly.
2:03:05
Uh, anyway, let's move on to another YC founder, an alum, one of legends, EMTT Shear.
2:03:13
He says, "When I was CEOing at Twitch, one of the things I'd do every batch for of interns was a very short presentation on the origins of the company and then a Q&A.
2:03:22
One of the questions is always where should I work and what job should I get or should I start a company?"
2:03:27
And he goes on to say, "It's an interesting question to try and answer for an intern I didn't really know because of course the actual answer is dependent on that person and their life.
2:03:37
So I decided so I had to figure out how to articulate the framework I used. First, there's money.
2:03:41
Obviously, you want money, but money is well known for diminishing returns. Debatable.
2:03:44
Um, after you have enough for rent and food and so on, then so you don't want to optimize for cash.
2:03:51
It's more of a constraint. Then there's prestige.
2:03:52
How much will getting this job impress people?
2:03:56
Prestige is mostly a trap.
2:03:56
For the same reason designer clothing brands are bad deals, also debatable.
2:04:00
Um, brand might make something less discerning, people think better of you, but it won't actually make you better or better off.
2:04:10
Uh, power is also on offer.
2:04:10
usually called impact and the chance to make a difference or mission.
2:04:14
We like power because it feels good to wield the pure joy of throwing a stone in the lake and watching it splash and also we need Evan to write a book.
2:04:23
Yeah, I mean he's a great writer and and really great prince.
2:04:26
Uh what what is your framework when someone asks you where should I work or should I start a company? So general advice Yeah.
2:04:32
generalized advice is probably one of the most dangerous things in the entire world. Yep. There's nothing.
2:04:41
Yes, you can get advice and try to kind of general advice from somebody that you don't know and try to apply it to your life.
2:04:47
Everyone should have an eightleaf.
2:04:48
Everyone should buy a watch on bezel.
2:04:49
Everyone should be on public. Yeah.
2:04:51
Everyone should be on ramp. But I hear your point. Yes.
2:04:53
And obviously advertise on adequate.
2:04:55
Obviously, no, this this is the thing to to me the the the most important thing you can do in your 20s y is develop a meaningful enough relationship with smart enough people whose lives you admire and only get advice from them.
2:05:11
Y like David Senra and Sean Frank are like two of the only people on earth that aren't immediate family or you that or Ben, our lovely producer Ben.
2:05:20
Uh uh but but in general like I I only take sort of professional advice from a couple people in the world. Yep.
2:05:26
Because they understand my values.
2:05:28
They know the things that I care about.
2:05:30
They know what I want to optimize for.
2:05:31
They know all these things.
2:05:31
And they are have a unique and earned perspective.
2:05:36
Y and so it's much better to have you know one or two people and and only get sort of professional advice from them.
2:05:43
And uh that is the thing that has served me uh the best in life.
2:05:46
the best career decisions that I've made were in response to people like Sean Frank's advice, people like, you know, David Center's advice, and I can kind of pinpoint even the conversation. So, yeah.
2:05:58
Get a rich wallet, start a podcast. Yeah.
2:06:00
Like, like, um, I think if you had a strong personal relationship with Naval, I'm sure he could give you really, really, really good advice.
2:06:10
But just blanket, you know, taking his advice like you should work like a lion and then somebody like works hard for two days and then takes like two days off.
2:06:18
Like don't do that, you know, like like you need to sort of like take it Yeah.
2:06:22
and process it and then ideally get the same advice from somebody that actually knows.
2:06:25
Well, I threw this post in here randomly, but it seems like an answer to EMTT Shear's post uh from GMO Ralph over at Versel.
2:06:33
He says, "In a world of infinite possibility, the alpha is in focus, quality, and depth."
2:06:37
And that feels like the right level of like meta advice that that is almost safe to apply to everyone.
2:06:45
It's not it's not go work at this specific company except if you're an investor and you're like, "Oh, I'm really into games."
2:06:51
And then somebody pitches you a CRM and then it becomes Salesforce.
2:06:54
It's like you like you you took the advice of like I'm just going to follow like so so again you can always apply these things.
2:07:01
Focus, quality, and depth.
2:07:03
Does that keep you from investing in in Salesforce? Yeah.
2:07:06
Because you're saying, I'm going to be the best.
2:07:07
I'm going to be the investor. You're too focused.
2:07:09
Like, I'm going to deliver the best returns and I'm just going to focus on Well, it depends on what you're focusing on.
2:07:13
You could be focusing on founders, right? Quality of businesses.
2:07:16
Like, it doesn't necessarily need to be something as narrow as I mean, focusing on a specific company or specific niche.
2:07:22
You could be focusing on a uh on on a an axiom of investing.
2:07:23
But yes, I I I I hear your point. Interesting.
2:07:29
Um well, let's go to another post about being young and doing great things.
2:07:34
Uh, Gabriel says, "The only thing stopping me from doing great things when I was young was that I thought I was a and there were too many people smarter than me. I still do.
2:07:43
The only difference is that I realized everyone else is a as well."
2:07:45
It's kind of a midwip meme. Yes. It was actually Yes.
2:07:50
When I when I realized the bell curve of people is not that wide and being economically productive seems to come from what thoughts and insight about the world rather than genes. Interesting. Good one.
2:08:01
Uh did we talk about service now at all?
2:08:05
I don't think we have service now is buying move works the AI platform for almost $3 billion.
2:08:11
They were backed by Bane Kleiner for the shareholders and Bane and Lightseed and Kleiner and their LPS. Great moment. Great moment. Great exit.
2:08:21
Uh Service Now is a company that I just don't know anything about.
2:08:25
I mean honestly when we put this in the stack I was like I kind of got them confused with Service Titan. Yeah. Yeah.
2:08:32
Service Now, Service Titan, like we're doing two stories on the same thing.
2:08:35
And this is $160 billion company.
2:08:37
This one's much bigger than Service Titan.
2:08:38
Service Titan's what, 8 billion?
2:08:40
It's a cloud computing platform for the creation and management of automated business workflows. Let's go.
2:08:44
Buying a platform called Move Works, which Dundo bros hate this.
2:08:50
Hate this one weird trick. Yeah.
2:08:53
Make a hundred billion dollars building B2B SAS.
2:08:59
Augustus, somebody needs to do a wellness check on Augustus Dico right now.
2:09:02
now. Yeah, because honestly somebody should go and and do like a content warning like tell Augustus like hey don't listen to this episode minute you know they're talking about trigger warning trigger warning they're talking about service now be careful you're
2:09:16
going to be super depressed when you hear how much money people are making automating business processes yeah well that's the thing some people wake up and from a young age they know they want to live a life that allows them to deliver value through automating business processes using AI guy. Like that's just
2:09:31
Like that's just beautiful. Different. Yeah. I icky guy. Yeah. It's their life's work. They're live players.
2:09:37
My icky guy is automating business processes.
2:09:40
You're laughing, but it's true. It's real. Some people love this. You're built for it. It's great.
2:09:47
Anyway, um if you want to get on on service now and the action, head over to public. com.
2:09:56
Investing for those who take it seriously.
2:09:58
They have multiasset investing, industryleading yields. are trusted by millions.
2:10:02
Of course, this is not financial advice, but it is the preferred platform of the Technology Brothers. So, go check it out.
2:10:10
Uh, anyway, let's move on to former brother of the week, Justin Mayor's profiled in none other than Forbes, our favorite publication that we never say anything negative about. We love Forbes here. Uh, that's right.
2:10:26
Eight years of hard work, Justin and Kettle and Fire have been featured in Forbes. Congratulations.
2:10:30
So, to be clear, this this was not a contributor piece that, you know, you can basically get for 20 bucks. This was a cover story. Cover story. Daily cover story. Let's go.
2:10:42
Beautiful picture of Justin.
2:10:44
It shows him uh looking fantastic.
2:10:47
And there a bunch of the brothers in the community uh quoted this and you know said uh said nice things about about him.
2:10:55
But uh I I just liked The Boy Who Sold Soup. The Boy Who Sold Soup.
2:11:01
That's That is so good from John Fio. Oh my god. The Boy Who Sold. Incredible read. So good.
2:11:07
Here's the thing, though.
2:11:10
Justin is is is incredibly uh hardworking and kind and uh it's fantastic.
2:11:16
There's a reason he's a former brother of the week. Yes.
2:11:17
And I you know, some people have said to me, they don't know when I'm being sarcastic or when I'm being serious.
2:11:23
I'm not being sarcastic right now. Incredible human. Great guy.
2:11:27
And I'm lucky to call him a friend. Yeah.
2:11:29
And uh can't wait for our episode on uh Thursday when Justin joins.
2:11:33
We're going to be talking about the hot topics in consumer health.
2:11:34
We'll talk about who's making money on Maha, which I'm excited about.
2:11:41
What uh what the vibes are like at Mara Lago, where he's been spending time. It's great.
2:11:45
Um and of course the of course the bone broth empire he's built.
2:11:50
He made he made his money in basically built a um almost like I don't even say this ironically, he almost has a monopoly on the bone broth market. He really does. He really does.
2:12:02
Because it's actually How much money is he making, Jordy? Hundred a year. Let's go. $100 million. That's their run rate.
2:12:09
I think they're probably well uh that was when whenever you know I think they're probably well beyond that now.
2:12:14
It's a fantastic business.
2:12:16
He's a fantastic entrepreneur.
2:12:16
Um we got a fantastic post from Bucko Capital Bloke and I'm going to read this. Read it, dude. It's Jevan's paradox.
2:12:23
It's literally Bal's cost disease, a classic example of Galman's amnesia effect.
2:12:29
Oh, that's the Monty Hall problem.
2:12:31
It's orthogonal to Dutch disease.
2:12:33
It's a prisoner's dilemma. You're a prisoner. You're in prison. You're in prison. You're imprisoned. It's great. Mental models framework.
2:12:43
Trapped in the mental trapped in a mental model. Trapped in a framework. Can't get out.
2:12:46
Anyways, absolute banger.
2:12:49
He's had some great posts today.
2:12:49
I while we're at it, I'm gonna I'm gonna pull he he was talking about the Red Fin acquisition, right? Oh, yeah. Yeah.
2:12:54
I think that's the bottom of the stack.
2:12:57
Uh the bloke was um says Redf Fin got acquired today.
2:13:02
Shout out to their CEO for one of the wildest things I've ever heard on an earnings call.
2:13:07
The analyst on this earnings call for Red Fin says, "What if mortgage rates don't come down?"
2:13:14
Of course, this would be harmful to Red Fin's business because they buy and sell homes.
2:13:17
Uh, and when mortgage rates go down, people buy a lot of homes.
2:13:21
And Glenn, the CEO, says, which is a public, this is a public company. Answer any of this? I don't think so.
2:13:27
Uh, Glenn says, "Will drink our own urine or our competitor's blood stay in the foxhole?" No.
2:13:32
He says, "Great question. Plan B.
2:13:34
Plan B is drink our own urine or our competitor's blood stay in the foxhole."
2:13:42
I don't know if you remember, but our last earnings call ended with a single line from a who song, won't get fooled again, where I said, "We're not banking on low rates when other people had thought they might come down." I don't know. Weird. Go Glenn. He got out. He sold the company. Congrats to Glenn. Size gone for Glenn.
2:13:58
And uh yeah, I I love a I love a I love a CEO dropping a hot take on an earnings call.
2:14:03
Real uh you know, don't have a lot of time to post when you're running a public company.
2:14:08
You got to get those bangers out in the earnings call when the analyst asks. That's crazy.
2:14:12
They were they were trading. Yeah. What was refining worth?
2:14:17
Zillow competitor, right? Oh, wow.
2:14:19
They were trading at like a quarter of their revenue. Rough. Yeah. Yeah. Tough tough go.
2:14:25
Um anyway, but they got out. Yeah, they got out.
2:14:28
Uh let's move on to Blake Anderson.
2:14:30
He's locked in the cage right now, but he says 10X will be a hund00 million company within one year.
2:14:36
He's manifesting uh what's their AR right now?
2:14:41
They haven't launched yet, so they're still at zero, but they haven't spent much money.
2:14:43
They're only a couple weeks into the cage.
2:14:45
And their goal, of course, is to hit $1 million in AR in 90 days.
2:14:50
And he's very confident about that.
2:14:51
And he's confident that he will take it further.
2:14:53
Take it all the way to $100 million. All the way. So, good luck to Blake.
2:14:57
If you want to go check out what he's doing, go to pmfred. com.
2:15:01
Anyway, let's move on to uh Oh, Josh Wolf.
2:15:05
He says, uh, "Incredible leadership in the United Arab Emirates as a husband to a super successful feminist in a male-dominated world and father to two bold daughters raised by my sacrifice at all.
2:15:17
Single mom and grandma, women have more rights in the UAE than some US states."
2:15:21
He's clearly fundraising, but I just want to take a second to say the UAE is one of the greatest innovations in human rights in the world.
2:15:31
And I think that everyone needs to acknowledge that at this point.
2:15:35
Everything in the Middle East is fantastic and um and I can't say enough good things and um you know I really hope that everyone in the Middle East can can can come together and support American financial markets uh more aggressively than ever before.
2:15:49
What do you think, Jordy? I agree, John. Fantastic. Absolutely.
2:15:52
Uh let's move on to Gary.
2:15:54
You're not uh you're not beating the the fundraising allegations.
2:15:58
Will Will started a rumor mill last week when he said he was leading around in TBPN.
2:16:02
Uh it's you know you know there had been rumors that we had been in the Middle East and so you're not really helping the rumor mill John but anyways back to the show.
2:16:12
We do what we have to do.
2:16:13
Uh did you hear about uh the Simpsons producer who was forced to demolish his 24year-old Simpsons inspired treehouse after the city of LA demanded he permanent like a single family dwelling.
2:16:24
Gary Tan says deregulate housing. Yes in my backyard.
2:16:29
And uh yeah I I I couldn't agree. It is postfires.
2:16:32
It's more important than ever to reconsider uh how permitting is is is done.
2:16:38
Uh it's a treehouse and they wanted it to be ADA compliant.
2:16:40
So they wanted a wheelchair ramp into the treehouse which I think was probably impossible.
2:16:48
Uh so they made him tear it down. Very sad.
2:16:50
Uh, and and and and my my problem with this is like I am okay with I'm okay with with housing regulations and and and rules around how you build things because, you know, you don't want someone building some massive structure that just falls over and destroys your house next to you.
2:17:05
Um, but you need high throughput approvals.
2:17:08
And what I was what I was kind of pitching was like there should be a CAD plugin where you design your structure and at every moment it's running the algorithm to say is this approved or is this denied and then you can just see okay everything's green click print the plans go build it you're good. Yeah.
2:17:24
Instead of instead of oh we designed the blueprints and then we send them in and then month later it comes back and they have one tweak and then another month and just goes back and forth and back and forth.
2:17:33
um and and it's very annoying and and now is the time um to to fix housing and Gary Tan has been a very vocal voice for that. So we love it.
2:17:41
We actually have a whole bunch of uh of of Gary Tan posts here.
2:17:44
Let's go to the next one.
2:17:45
Um uh he's quote tweeting someone who says I uh so I just simply asked Manis to give me the files.
2:17:51
We already talked about this.
2:17:53
Um and uh and Gary this but he came to a similar conclusion which is all the alpha is in prompting custom prompting tool use and clever workflow and eval.
2:18:05
So um I can't wait for demo day.
2:18:08
I'm sure we're going to see a lot of people adopting similar approaches to manuse as some some people call it manuse some people call it manis.
2:18:16
My noose the nominative determinism is that you will be hung by it. Yes. It's not great.
2:18:21
Uh anyway, uh things got a little spicy with the acquired podcast. They flew out to Taiwan.
2:18:28
They interviewed TSMC founder Morris Chang. Legend.
2:18:31
I've been calling for Morris Chang to go on Joe Rogan for years now and it hasn't happened. We saw Zuck go on. We saw Peter Teal go on. Uh we saw Nal Rob go on. Mark Andre's been on.
2:18:43
I wanted Morris Chang to go on Rogan. Didn't happen.
2:18:45
But fortunately, the good folks over at Acquired Podcast got it done. They flew out there. They interviewed him. But funny exchange.
2:18:50
Um Gilbert says TSMC is essentially the only trillion dollar company in the world, not on the west coast of the United States.
2:18:59
It is incredibly it is this incredibly important thing in the world.
2:19:03
It is it's this unlikely success of grand scale.
2:19:07
And Morschang cuts him off and says unlikely in your opinion.
2:19:12
And Gilbert says I mean you started it when you were 56. There are many things.
2:19:15
And Chang chimes in again and says I'm not going to argue with you. I merely asked it.
2:19:19
I merely asked as a point of curiosity.
2:19:21
I didn't think that it was unlikely. Mom, I love it.
2:19:23
You go over to meet with a what 80year-old founder and he just tells you I never had a doubt in my mind. Not for a second myself.
2:19:32
But I mean the the the acquired guys are doing fantastic interviews and they are I I mean I hope this sound bite goes viral or like there's more sound bites from the Morris Chang uh interview that go viral because uh there's that famous uh Jensen Wong uh interview that they did where there's that clip that goes viral where they're like if you had to go back and you had to do it all again would you do it?
2:19:57
And he's just like no I wouldn't do it. It's been too hard. It's been too miserable. I don't like it. It's bad. Like but I'm here.
2:20:02
Check out my leather jacket. Yeah. Yeah.
2:20:04
It's a it's a very very very funny interaction and they're and they they obviously do a ton of research on these companies so they show up extremely prepared and get great sound bites and so go check it out.
2:20:13
You can listen to the TSMC founder Morris Chang on the acquired podcast.
2:20:16
You can go to their YouTube.
2:20:18
It's probably in their RSS feed as well. Okay. Um one more post. Yep.
2:20:22
And then um and before we do that last post, I wanted That's what you got to do before that next post.
2:20:29
I'm gonna stop myself at two because uh I we haven't finished the bottle.
2:20:36
Yeah, there's no rule about a dom.
2:20:38
There's no rule about a dom episode.
2:20:40
Uh let us know in the chat what you think should let us know in the chat.
2:20:44
Um no, but I wanted to uh give a quick shout out to Wander. Okay.
2:20:48
Number one place to book vacation rentals in the world.
2:20:53
They are more than vacation homes.
2:20:54
They are simply uh find your no start over find find your happy place. Find your happy place.
2:21:05
Book a wander with inspiring.
2:21:07
We need We need the guitar for that. Yeah, we do. We do need the guitar.
2:21:10
Uh hotel, great amenities, dreamy beds, top tier cleaning, and 24/7 concier service is a vacation home but better.
2:21:16
Jordy, do you have a link or a code?
2:21:18
Yeah, you just have to go to wander.
2:21:20
com/tbpn and if you just create an account, they're going to give away a I think it's like a 4ishnight trip to someone in our audience. That's a long trip. That's nice.
2:21:29
Longer than I was in Tahoe. Um, so go do it. Takes a second.
2:21:35
You can use Google or any other login and you would be silly not to. Uh, and invite us. Maybe we'll come. That sounds great.
2:21:41
We rarely leave the house except to to do the show.
2:21:43
If you book one that has a podcasting room, we'll be there. Yeah. Fantastic. Uh let's go to Gabe.
2:21:49
Tech guys take up a creative hobby because they want to prove they are insold unlike all other tech guys.
2:21:53
And then they end up taking uh and then they end up with the exact same hobbies as all other tech guys which are making electronic music and photography uh bodied.
2:22:07
I do know some tech guys that have taken up electronic music and photography. Yep.
2:22:11
But that's why we advocate for nurburging, bodybuilding, MMA, MMA, long-distance rifle shooting, watch making most dangerous game. Uh car collecting even.
2:22:26
Even if you don't want to drive the cars fast, just collect the cars.
2:22:29
Sailing alone across the Pacific Ocean. That's right.
2:22:31
These are hobbies that will differentiate you if you're looking for something.
2:22:34
You're not going to become glorious and remembered in in the trenches of EDM and photography.
2:22:40
carve your own Mount Rushmore.
2:22:41
Yes, in the Marin uh uh highlands. Yes, I agree. Just do it.
2:22:48
Someone says, "Want to go bouldering?"
2:22:50
And Gabe says, "I will not do this." Very popular hobby.
2:22:53
But yeah, get get out there.
2:22:55
Get deep in some rabbit holes on YouTube. Find an obscure hobby.
2:22:57
And that's really really deep. Watch collecting. Go to bezel.
2:23:01
Start start collecting watches.
2:23:03
It's much better than photography.
2:23:07
Uh anyway, uh Lancier Enga says, "You think cursor's growth is is crazy.
2:23:13
There's a company in this YC batch that hit $50 million in annualized profit in two months."
2:23:19
What do you think, Jordy? Annualized profit.
2:23:21
Like it's a weird weird stat, right? Yeah.
2:23:24
Because capex because if you're making that much money, you should probably hire and scale the team and and sort of spend even, you know, like I don't know. Yeah. annualized profit.
2:23:35
It's like did you make is that like one good day?
2:23:37
It also would be hilarious if it was Yeah, it was one day one hour no payroll expenses hit.
2:23:44
It was just exactly nothing per profit that day.
2:23:46
I mean it's still impressive. It's still impressive.
2:23:47
I'm sure I'm sure it's a great company.
2:23:48
But uh it it is it is funny that we're now talking about annualized profit, which is not like really a thing.
2:23:53
Uh cash balance over time is what matters.
2:23:57
But if you're making so much profit and you need to manage your expenses, you got to go to ramp. com. Time is money.
2:24:03
say both easy to use corporate cards, bill payments, accounting and a whole lot more all in one place.
2:24:08
Uh I really hope that YC company uh signs up for RAMP and if we meet them, we will definitely be pitching them ramp.
2:24:14
Anyway, we should have an iPad where anybody that comes uh that we run into, we just sign them up for RAMP. Yeah. Oh, that'd be great.
2:24:24
It's a it's more of a public service than a sales activity, a sales motion. Yeah. Yes. Yes.
2:24:28
Uh let's go to Richard Crab. Very fascinating poster.
2:24:30
Does the post very often?
2:24:33
Do you know John John has insane podcasters high right now because we were like we're this is the last post like three post talking about I never agreed to that.
2:24:42
You still have the champagne you haven't finished. Let's keep going.
2:24:46
What do you What do you have to do the rest of the day? Nothing. You're posted.
2:24:49
You're you're podcasting. Let's keep going.
2:24:50
We We We literally only have six posts left. We can get through this. We're good. We're good. I'll skip some of these.
2:24:56
Some of these are are are repeats, too. We'll skip this. Stick with us, folks. We'll skip John. Save the best for last. Okay. Um, we'll skip this one.
2:25:04
We'll skip this is a duplicate.
2:25:07
Uh, yeah, let let's just let's just uh let's just close out of Richard Crepe. Very interesting poster.
2:25:13
He only pops up when something big is happening in the market.
2:25:15
He runs a a hedge fund uh Numera and he said he woke up today wondering how Leopold Ashen Brener situ situ situational awareness hedge fund is doing.
2:25:25
And so uh do you know the story of Leopold Ashen Brener? Is that the o open AI? He was at open AAI. He left.
2:25:33
He did a great podcast with Dorcas Patel.
2:25:36
Talked about uh scaling laws and basically predicted that uh you know if you follow if you scale out the AGI systems like it's going to get really really crazy.
2:25:45
Uh made a bunch of uh kind of pivots away from the the traditional AI safety arguments towards uh kind of geopolitical relevance. Yeah.
2:25:53
Uh the fact the the idea that these will be you know akin to nuclear weapons very controlled.
2:25:59
But um I think what Richard here is saying that uh you know Leopold's bet was that situ situational awareness hedge fund like like go turbo long Nvidia basically like like AI is the future and then of course like things are selling off right now and if you're levered long Nvidia even if it's a good bet over the very long term to be in a rough spot timing and sizing. Exactly. Exactly.
2:26:21
Um, and so Richard Crabs throwing some throwing some questions up on the timeline I thought I thought were interesting, but good luck to Leopold.
2:26:29
Uh, I'm a big fan of his podcast.
2:26:31
I thought it was very interesting.
2:26:32
Anyway, anything else you want to cover?
2:26:36
I don't know if this is somebody messing around. Okay, it's not. This is breaking news.
2:26:42
We got some personnel news. What is this?
2:26:44
Uh, somebody on uh the chat.
2:26:47
Oh, you're talking big game about me going too long.
2:26:48
Now we got breaking news. Jord's.
2:26:50
Oh, we got to do one more. Oh, okay. Okay. Yeah. Did you finish?
2:26:54
You You didn't quite finish the bottle, but that's all that's all you bottle's done.
2:26:57
So, under the number, not less than 10 minutes ago, he says, "When's the next some personnel news?
2:27:04
Should be a regular segment."
2:27:04
And the answer is right now.
2:27:05
Eric Schmidt, former CEO of Google, is the new leader of relativity space. He's joining his CEO. This 50 minutes ago. Um, that's incredible.
2:27:17
And uh it says I got an article here from RS Technica.
2:27:20
Another Silicon Valley investor is getting into the rocket business.
2:27:24
Everybody's getting into the rocket business.
2:27:26
We've we've you know sketched out some designs.
2:27:30
We're exploring it, but just to get some of our own low Earth orbit satellites just to stream the show down.
2:27:35
Um uh but uh apparently he's been quite involved over the past few months.
2:27:41
Um and that he's been largely been bankrolling the company since the end of October.
2:27:47
dangerous position to get in when you are the lifeline of the company and the burn becomes your own personal expenses.
2:27:54
But if anybody uh can afford it, it's Schmidt.
2:27:56
Um and it's not immediately clear why Schmidt is taking a hands-on approach at Relativity.
2:28:01
Um and uh but but this article says it's one of the few US-based companies with a credible path toward developing a medium lift rocket that could potentially challenge the dominance of SpaceX and its Falcon 9 rocket. So, um, pretty wild.
2:28:20
Uh, anybody that wanted, uh, the Google founders to go back to Google, founder, he's, uh, oh, CEO. Crazy.
2:28:26
CEO for a long time, but he was never founder of Google. That's wild. Exposed. Exposed.
2:28:34
But granted, I was but I was a but I was a small I was a small child in that era. Yeah. Yeah.
2:28:40
I mean, he clearly like, you know, he grew the company.
2:28:44
He's like a fantastic executive but uh technically not a founder but maybe that's a bull case because relativity has already been founded.
2:28:51
He comes in and if he can do what he did for Google to relativity it's very bullish. True. I don't know.
2:28:57
Uh and uh Google is down 5% on the news after hours. Obviously not No, it is. It is. It is.
2:29:07
But it's because of the market. Yeah.
2:29:09
because he's this guy who hasn't been involved in the company a decade former that's an issue of some personnel news anything can happen in the market. Yeah. Yeah.
2:29:18
No, I mean there's an argument.
2:29:20
It's like okay um Eric such so insane for Eric to join relativity space and Eric's thinking is still embedded in this company.
2:29:28
Maybe the company's worth less.
2:29:29
The fact that he's that he's choosing to go back into the CEO role and he's not going back to Google. Bare case.
2:29:35
Yeah, maybe that's what you come here for.
2:29:37
the worst financial advice you've ever heard.
2:29:39
No, it's our job to give the worst advice so that nobody could ever say as a joke so nobody could ever say you guys are giving financial advice, which we never do. We never have.
2:29:51
Um, anyways, fun show today. Fun show.
2:29:55
I will make sure John finishes the Dom.
2:29:57
I will make sure Jordy finishes his dom.
2:30:00
I refilled it to the top. To the top.
2:30:03
Ridiculous for Cheers to you, John.
2:30:06
Cheers to the great show.
2:30:06
This is our life's work and ack and uh thank you everyone for watching.
2:30:16
We will see you uh tomorrow.
2:30:16
We have some we have a big we have big week big big announcement tomorrow morning.
2:30:20
Big announcement tomorrow morning.
2:30:22
If you're if you follow us on X, get ready to repost. Engage please.
2:30:25
You'll know it when you see it. That is for sure. We'll see you tomorrow. See you tomorrow. Bye.