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4:59
>> 3 2 1 >> You're watching TVPN.
5:03
>> Today is Friday, July 25th, 2025. We are lively, John.
5:07
TBPN Ultradome, the temple of technology, the fortress of finance capital.
5:13
Uh today we got to talk about Intel.
5:13
We have a post from Tay Kim who wrote the book on on uh on Nvidia, the Nvidia way about Jensen Wong.
5:21
Uh he says indeed literally by the way >> literally wrote the book. Yes.
5:25
Uh Intel now expects to have 75,000 employees at year end down from 116,500 in June of 2024.
5:34
That's basically one year ago. That's a massive cut.
5:37
Nvidia is on the other side of the trade.
5:40
Uh Nvidia CEO said they now have 42,000 employees yesterday, up from 36,000 in January of 2025. Massive shifts.
5:47
Uh it's crazy to think about the market cap per employee difference there. It's pretty remarkable.
5:56
If you're cutting costs, you got to get on ramp. Time is money. Save both. Easy.
6:00
Use corporate cards, bill payments, accounting, and a whole lot more all in one place.
6:03
So the news is a ramp problem.
6:06
Yeah, they really should get on ramp.
6:08
Lip Bhutan, I know you're listening. You should get on ramp. Lip lip bhutan.
6:11
Uh, so this is from the Wall Street Journal, the business and finance section.
6:16
Intel is going to lay off 15% of their workforce.
6:19
Uh, chip giant stands at a strategic crossroads.
6:21
The CEO warns no more blank checks.
6:23
Intel detailed dramatic steps to revive its sagging fortunes, outlining layoffs for 15% of its workforce and scrapping plans to spend tens of billions of dollars on new chip facilities in Europe. Oo, bearish for Europe.
6:37
I didn't realize that was going on.
6:38
Uh, the chipmaking giant said Thursday it would refocus its strategy on the highly competitive market for AI chips, regaining market share in personal computer processors, and developing its advanced 14A technology to sell to large customers.
6:54
It's like, okay, we're going to we're going to narrow down.
6:56
We're just going to do three incredibly difficult things.
7:00
we're going to compete in in the most aggressive AI chip market where we're not just competing with Nvidia but also the TPU from Google, all the upstarts, Grock, Cerros, all these different companies.
7:12
Uh so we're going to like go from zero to one there and then we're also going to turn around our our personal computer processing market. >> Bold bold.
7:20
Intel, which has long dominated the business of making chips for laptops and desktop computers, fell far behind competitors like Nvidia, AMD, and TSMC after it failed to anticipate the surge in demand for the powerful chips fueling the artificial intelligence boom.
7:35
Lip Bhutan, the CEO, the new CEO of of Intel after Pat Gellzinger stepped down uh about a year ago, I believe.
7:44
Uh he said, "There are no more blank checks."
7:47
He wrote in a memo, "Every investment must make economic sense." Love to hear that.
7:53
Exactly what you want to hear from >> nominative determinism of lip bhutan.
7:58
>> Um, >> hate to put you on the spot.
8:00
>> Hitting the beach, getting a tan. I like that.
8:04
>> You know, >> I can see it. I can see it.
8:05
>> Maybe if maybe if Intel doesn't work out, he can get into cosmetics.
8:07
It's like get a tan with this tanning oil. Get some lip balm. Lip balm. Tan. >> Yeah.
8:13
something that something called lip blushing where where I think it's like a mild tattoo.
8:17
So maybe if this whole semi thing doesn't work out, he could get into the lip blushing franchise game. >> Yep. I I agree.
8:26
Uh revenue in the June quarter was roughly flat at 12.
8:30
9 billion, beating Wall Street's expectations.
8:34
Uh the quarterly loss though widened to 2.
8:36
9 billion for the quarter from a 1.
8:39
6 six billion loss in the year earlier period.
8:42
The results represent the company's sixth consecutive quarterly loss, extending its longest streak in 35 years.
8:47
It's got to suck to be in a position where computing broadly computers are doing incredibly cool things. AI is magic.
8:54
We pass the touring test and you're not a beneficiary.
8:59
you're losing money and it's because of a bet on, you know, the server and these large scale CPUs and not getting into GPUs and then missing mobile.
9:10
There's a whole bunch of things that went into it.
9:11
Um, so sales in Intel's PC chip division, the company's largest segment, fell 3% from the year earlier period.
9:17
I remember about a decade ago, I built a new, you know, ma massive PC rig to do uh CGI rendering on it.
9:25
tell was >> you weren't you weren't building it to as a gaming rig.
9:31
>> I did use it for a gaming rig.
9:34
John's vice he said uh you >> there's market research.
9:37
I need to understand what the gaming market's going.
9:39
I need to understand uh the future of VR.
9:41
I actually I think I think uh you you beat your video game addiction in years.
9:46
Um and so uh uh it's uh it's an interesting time for Intel.
9:55
We uh I have some more more information here.
9:57
Uh >> do you remember six months ago there was the rumors floating around that that Elon was was a potential buyer feel so long ago?
10:05
>> I was propagating those rumors.
10:07
>> And >> ultimately it feels like uh you know he he got the uh got the fun experience of a turnaround at Twitter.
10:17
>> Does he want to do that again? >> Yep. >> I don't know.
10:19
I mean, my take when when he bought Twitter and turned it into X was that it was exciting.
10:23
I thought that he could make it a lot better.
10:26
He has in many ways made it a better product.
10:28
We stream on it now and and it feels like it's still a vibrant community and there's a whole bunch of new features, good stuff, bad stuff, but overall I think he put the company back in startup mode.
10:40
They're shipping very quickly.
10:41
Interesting things are happening and he's making plays in an interesting way that I like.
10:45
But at the time I was like, "Okay, $44 billion.
10:48
There's something like $50 billion from the chips act, maybe going to Intel and foundaries in America.
10:56
Run this back and marshall the same amount of capital.
10:58
Let him buy Intel, turn that around."
11:00
That feels like something that Elon would be uniquely equipped to turn around and would put us on a very different path uh if he got into semiconductor manufacturing, but it would be a huge challenge and maybe it wasn't as important to him. So, I don't know.
11:15
Um, but >> I mean only a week ago a a small company called AOL AOL.
11:19
com was posting that is Elon Musk about to buy Intel?
11:25
>> Um, so this feels like um very uh you know Dylan Dylan Patel on January 17th saying Elon's jet is in Florida.
11:32
Global Foundaries jet is in Florida.
11:34
Qualcomm's jet is in Florida.
11:37
>> Um and uh but ultimately a lot of people were in Florida at that time.
11:40
Well, if your jet's flying around the world, you got to take your jet to a wander. Find your happy place.
11:45
>> Find your happy place.
11:46
>> Book a wander with inspiring views, hotel, great amenities, dreamy beds, top your cleaning, and 24/7 concier service.
11:51
It's a vacation home, but better folks.
11:52
Um, and so, uh, Dylan Patel, speaking of Dylan Patel, um, he actually hung out with Lip Bhutan at a conference and he has this hilarious story where he clearly wanted to meet Lip Bhutan and spend some time with him and everyone's coming up to Lip Bhutan asking him what the future of Intel is.
12:07
So he goes up and offers to make him tea and makes his tea for him.
12:11
And they sit down and they have tea and they like and I I think Dylan Patel really understands like tea culture and knows what makes for a good cup of tea in the same way that someone like a coffee snob knows about good coffee.
12:21
So they they have tea and and Dylan Patel's kind of picking his brain and um and it just feels like Lip Bhutan's overall goal is just layoffs, reduce cost, write the ship, refocus.
12:34
And so what's interesting is that we talked to Ben Thompson and I wanted a clear I wanted a I wanted a clear narrative.
12:40
I wanted something like, oh, it's obvious just split the foundry and the design business.
12:45
Split up Intel into two companies and that will solve all the problems.
12:49
But everyone seems to agree it's more complicated than that because part of Intel's foundry business is that they design their own chips.
12:55
And so they're they're both they're both their customer and their supplier.
12:57
And breaking those up might be more difficult. It's not a cure all. It's not a panacea.
13:02
And so, uh, it is more complicated.
13:05
Um, so there's not a super clear path forward.
13:07
It's a lot of hard decisions.
13:09
It's a lot of cuts to employees.
13:10
And that's what we're seeing today with the 15% layoff.
13:12
There will probably be more in the future as Intel continues to downsize the workforce.
13:18
>> Really, really rough for morale knowing that the workforce will just be, you know, continue to get cut into um, you know, like you said, probably not the last. >> Yep.
13:28
And so they are focusing on uh the the the direct quote is refocus strategy on the highly competitive market for AI chips, regaining market share in personal computer processors and advancing the 14A technology.
13:39
Now the problem is that Intel is still more expensive than TSMC on a normalized per wafer basis.
13:46
This comes from uh this comes from uh semi analysis.
13:50
So they have the Intel 3 node, the 18A, and that goes up against the N5, N3, and N2 nodes from TSMC.
13:59
And across the board, um, Intel is more expensive on a per wafer basis.
14:04
So this is at their own fabs.
14:06
They're trying to catch up.
14:06
They're trying to create uh chips that are that are as um as powerful, but the name of the game is always cost. Yeah. >> Um, >> yes.
14:15
Semi analysis says the company has cost discipline in its DNA.
14:17
Talking about TSMC, Intel not necessarily.
14:19
This manifests in many ways.
14:22
TSMC has more aggressive cost down targets and exercises its leverage on suppliers.
14:26
It has not used the copy exact dogma that creates unnecessary overhead and resistance to improvements.
14:36
>> Hence, Intel is now moving to copy smart.
14:37
Are you familiar with the copy exact strategy? >> No.
14:40
So when Intel built the original fabs, >> what they would do is they would build this.
14:45
I mean it is a incredibly precise process.
14:48
So you can think of lithography is basically etching.
14:52
That's why that company that semiconductor company is called etched because they that you're etching grooves in a silicon wafer and that's where when you put electricity through it, it goes through a series of gates and that's what a semiconductor is.
15:05
And >> that's how you create magic.
15:06
>> That's how you create magic. Yes. It's the it's the spice.
15:07
the the dune analogy is the most important one here.
15:10
Um but basically you have to etch these grooves at as small as small a scale as possible.
15:18
So three nanometers silicon atoms are 1 nanometer.
15:20
So you in theory cannot go smaller than one nanometer chip because the space between the atoms is only one atom or one nanometer.
15:28
So this is incredibly small and so you basically have to shine like a laser or some sort of light or some sort of radiation to actually etch into the silicon to create the grooves.
15:41
Basically, this is very very high level abstraction, but um in order to do that, they get these m they get these mirrors from a company called Trump, which is unrelated to Donald Trump, but uh and and Zeiss makes these lenses and they focus all this stuff and this liquid tin gets like, you know, dispersed and then they bounce light off of it. It's this crazy process.
16:01
The mirrors are so flat that if you if you if you if you like blew them up to like the size of the moon, you would still would not be able to see a groove even this high.
16:10
It's like the most precise process in every single world.
16:14
>> By the way, uh Intel missed opportunity to create the TPU, Google's obviously owning that right now.
16:20
But if Intel had said, "We're making Trump processor." >> Yeah.
16:25
The spacket >> and you know, I mean, they're already public. So, >> yeah.
16:29
I mean, you know, what's the chip that's going to be in the Trump phone?
16:33
The golden the golden Americanmade phone should be an Intel processor. Who knows? Americanade.
16:39
>> So, the the the semiconductor manufacturing process is so precise that apparently a TSMC like if there's an earthquake or anything like that, everyone they don't even need to send out a notification.
16:47
Everyone just knows go to TSMC to just deal with everything because the slight change in like the road noise or slight could like miscalibrate the machines.
16:55
If it like rains too much, there will be extra salt in the parking lot that will get tracked in.
17:02
Even when they go into the clean room, it'll get tracked in and the small sodium particles will throw off the yield.
17:07
So, all of this is about yield.
17:10
They'll make a ton of these wafers.
17:11
There'll be small imperfections.
17:11
It ruins the whole wafer.
17:12
That's been a big problem with the wafer scale, >> which is why TSMC getting any yield in Arizona despite setting up, you know, this new facility so recently was very unexpected. It's a miracle. Yes.
17:24
And so the copy exact dogma was >> it is so hard to build a fab that manufactures semiconductors reliably at good yields that when Intel figured out how to make one fab they said let's make a second and let's change nothing.
17:41
And so they build a building they build the exact same foundation.
17:46
They'd build the the bathrooms would be in the same place.
17:50
If there was two urinals in one bathroom, like there would be two urinals at the other one.
17:55
Like everything was exactly the same. Copies.
17:58
>> Basically extremely superstitious. >> Yeah.
18:01
Basically, because they were like anything that changes like if the water flows through the pipe in the bathroom at the wrong flow rate, it might throw off the amount of molecules in the air over here and the atoms over.
18:10
It's like it's crazy precise, right?
18:11
And so that worked for Intel, but it had this problem which was that every once in a while you do want to make an iterative change when you're building the next fab.
18:22
And you do want to increase yield by maybe not copying exactly and doing things a slightly differently.
18:26
And so now Intel is pivoting to copy smart, only copy what's actually improvement instead of just copying everything exactly.
18:33
Uh NTSMC has never held themselves to that same standard.
18:35
And so uh customers are likely baselining the 18A Intel node against N3 3 nanometer nodes TSMC um given the characteristics.
18:47
Um but uh Intel will have to be aggressive on pricing if they want to compete because they are not competitive on the actual cost of the wafer and so they would need lower margins if they want to compete.
19:00
And so you can think about Intel as having kind of like three feature products that people are focused on.
19:06
It's Intel 3 uh which is their 5nanmter class.
19:09
Uh that one is fabbed in Arizona and Oregon and Ireland.
19:13
These are at Intel facilities.
19:16
Intel also has the Intel 18A which is at the same sites plus Ohio.
19:22
And this is competitive with the 2nanmter class from TSMC.
19:24
And then they have the 14A which is supposed to be 1. 4 nanometer or below.
19:29
This is the most cutting edge uh extreme ultraviolet really really aggressive lithography and uh and this is also made in America which is great.
19:40
Um and these will compete with Nvidia's Blackwells and then the next generation uh Blackwell successor.
19:47
And so they're going head-to-head but uh the real question will be can they go head-to-head and still squeeze out a decent margin because the in the Nvidia TSMC partnership is really really strong.
19:59
They both have good margins and they've really optimized for cost and reliability and yield and Intel has kind of lost a step there and so um they will probably need to get on linear to make this work.
20:11
Linear is a purpose-built tool for planning and building products, meet the system for modern software development, streamline issues, projects and product roadmaps.
20:17
So lip bonan if you need an intro to the folks over at linear let us know reach out and uh and we'll figure it out.
20:26
Um so >> and uh Intel is of course down almost 10% today.
20:31
Uh market is not loving >> much of anything happening over there right now. >> Yep.
20:38
So semi- analysis continues saying Intel the home of Moore's law.
20:41
Gordon Moore of course worked at Intel and coined Moore's law the idea that uh the number of transistors will double every few years on on a silicon chip allowing for more compute power basically at the same price.
20:55
uh they are they're evaluating if it will continue at the leading edge.
20:59
This is this is what moves the stock in my opinion more than the 15% layoff.
21:03
The layoff seems like reasonable downsiding, but uh deciding, hey, we're not even going to compete on the on the most advanced semiconductors, which is what Elon, Google, Anthropic, Sam Alman, you know, every single company is like, give me all of the best and give me hundreds of thousands of the best.
21:21
The rest of the stuff is like, okay, I'll go to anyone because I need a, you know, Wi-Fi chip in my toaster.
21:27
Um, so the quote from the 10 Q from Intel's 10Q is, however, we are unable to secure a significant external if we are unable to secure a significant external customer and meet the important customer milestones for Intel 14A.
21:40
We face the prospect that it will not be economical to develop and man manufacture Intel 14A and successor leading edge nodes on a go forward basis.
21:51
In such event, we may pause or discontinue our pursuit of Intel 14A and successor nodes and various of our manufacturing expansion projects.
22:00
Just and semi analysis says just like that we could be talking about a TSMC monopoly and the death of Americanmade semiconductors forever. Very dark.
22:10
Um well let's tell you about Reream one live stream 30 destinations.
22:17
We couldn't do the show without it.
22:19
Multiream and reach your audience wherever they are.
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You can sign up for free at reream.
22:22
Um so in other semiconductor news there's a big debate going on around etched.
22:27
I reached out to the founder.
22:30
I did an interview with him a while back.
22:33
I'd love to have him on the show.
22:34
Uh he was Gavin Uberti at etched is the the the the basic highle pitch is we're taking the transformer architecture and we're baking it down into silicon.
22:43
Semi analysis has been taking some shots at the idea saying hey it's just marketing but I feel like he has something else going on some other strategy.
22:52
uh he's teal fellow, very smart guy, very interesting, very nuanced take on AI and a lot of his predictions have been right since I interviewed him a few years ago.
23:01
And so I'd love to catch up with him and and hear his rebuttal to this at least.
23:06
Um but uh basically they semi analysis makes a very detailed analysis saying that uh transformers are 90% matrix multiplications.
23:15
You take a bunch of math, you multiply it together.
23:17
Um, so baking trans the transformer architecture into silicon doesn't actually get you that much.
23:22
A different semi semi uh semiconductor analyst semi analyst.
23:28
>> A different semi analyst.
23:28
I don't know why they call them semi- analysts.
23:30
I think that they're full-time analysts.
23:33
Yeah, I I don't think they're anything but semi. >> It's rude.
23:35
>> It's very rude >> to say that they're parttime.
23:36
Clearly putting it all on the line.
23:39
>> They're putting it all on the line for sure.
23:40
So Sally Ward says, "Okay, I'll bite."
23:43
Yes, making trans a transformer chip does mean making a large matt mole engine, but there's a lot more to efficient transformer inference than gems/flops.
23:52
You need to be able to feed and use those flops efficiently.
23:54
Goes back and forth a bit.
23:56
Even takes a shot at them using uh GPGPU, which I guess is an industry term, and uh and the semi- analysis team uh drops a very very thorough post. You can just go read it.
24:09
But uh they close in regards to by the way no one in AI has used the term GPGPU since about 2020 that that this is not correct.
24:15
Many chip architects definitely continue to refer to AMD Nvidia Intel art class of software as GPGPU and differentiate from the tranium TPU gaudy style architecture and programming model.
24:27
So uh little bit of timeline and turmoil in this semiannalysis world which I enjoy.
24:30
Um, >> by the way, uh, somebody, one of our early listeners, Wade Lloyd, bought timeline inturmoil.
24:39
com >> and redirected it to TBPN.
24:42
So, thank you to Wade for doing that.
24:45
It is a fantastic domain.
24:49
>> But yeah, um, so big debate over how much more you can squeeze out of uh, baking the transformer into silicon.
24:57
There's also this interesting concept that the the trans uh which I didn't know a lot of people think like attention all is all you need is the paper that dropped the transformer architecture isn't going anywhere your long transformers but apparently according to semi analysis the transformer architecture moves in on the
25:13
order of months and how and the typical chip life cycle is years and so yes we're still using transformers but the transformer is changing slightly and so we don't have a new word for it new buzzword but there are changes that if you got really locked into V2 of the transformer architecture, then V3 might not be as advantageous. So, uh, big
25:33
So, uh, big debate over the future of semiconductors.
25:37
Um, Intel will have to figure it out and see where they can play.
25:41
Um, let's tell you about Figma.
25:44
Think bigger, build faster.
25:44
Figma helps design and development teams build great products together.
25:47
They're IPOing next week.
25:49
So, >> and Figma make is publicly available. >> Go check it out. >> Uh, for free now. Check it out. >> For free. Um, yep.
25:55
In other news, uh, Jared Isaacman, uh, who we know was Trump's initial pick for NASA administrator, uh, just took Secretary Duffy up in one of his personal fighter jets. So, >> this guy rocks.
26:08
If you have a personal fighter jet and you can fly it yourself, I think, uh, I think you should have a good shot at becoming the NASA administrator.
26:17
I think that kind of narrows the options down to probably one man. I don't know.
26:22
I we we should figure out how many people on Earth have their own jet fighter jet that they can actually fly.
26:29
>> I wonder what can't be that many.
26:31
>> I wonder what fighter jet this is.
26:31
I know people used to buy MIG trainers and fly around in those and those are fighter jets but they were like decommissioned easier to get and I don't believe they were actually that expensive.
26:42
I think they're cheaper than a Gulfream.
26:43
And so >> well the TAM of people that are going to buy one and and uh use it >> Yeah. Just very small.
26:52
>> Yeah, very very small.
26:52
Uh obviously high skill ceiling, but if you pull up in a jet, it's just incredible aura. Incredible aura.
27:01
>> I mean, the one that's going to be uh, you know, the the best personal jet will be the F-35.
27:06
It's a little bit pricey, but being able to, you know, vertical takeoff landing makes it much more uh >> this up. That is cool.
27:16
>> I wonder Yeah, we got to figure out what what how much that thing costs.
27:17
what how much that thing costs. I've I've long advocated for the president to recommission the SR71 and uh and use that as the Air Force One because at going I mean this is the pitch for Hermus and boom supersonic but
27:32
>> Michael Mirlo in the chat says that's a MIG 29 >> MIG 29 so it is a MIG trainer um which is like decommissioned doesn't have weapons on it I believe but uh >> pretty pretty amazing but I I think it's like a 20 million >> he says it's the only westernowned MC 29. >> Oh really interesting. Okay. Wow. Very
27:48
>> Oh really interesting. Okay. Wow. Very very cool.
27:50
Well, thank you for the for the details in the chat.
27:52
Um >> MIG was uh apparently uh designed uh by um >> it was Russian.
28:02
>> Yes, but this guy um >> John Migs.
28:07
>> Yeah, I'm looking it up.
28:07
Uh Miko Yanik, which was headquartered in Moscow.
28:15
And uh the the designer uh creator was born in 1893 in Kursk, Russia, >> and died in the 70s.
28:24
>> Well, if you're if you're accumulating military hardware for personal use, you probably got some compliance needs.
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You got to get on Vanta automate compliance, manage risk, proved trust continuously.
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28:41
Let's go to Donald Trump meeting with uh Powell at the Federal Reserve. >> Tom says LMAO. This is a comedy skit.
28:47
I want to watch this video. Let's play it.
28:52
>> So, we're taking a look and it looks like it's about 3. 1 billion. It went up a little bit. Uh so the 2. 7 is now 3. 1.
29:03
>> I'm not aware of that.
29:04
>> Yeah, it just came out.
29:06
>> Yeah, I haven't heard that from anybody. It just came out. >> Our nose had about 3. 1 as well. >> 3. 1 3. 2. >> This came from us. >> Yes.
29:19
I don't know who does that.
29:24
>> You're including the Martin renovation.
29:25
You just added >> our entire capital.
29:27
>> You just you just added in a third building is what that is. That's a third building.
29:31
>> It's a building that's being built.
29:33
>> No, it's been it was built 5 years ago.
29:35
We finished Martin 5 years ago.
29:35
It's part of the overall work.
29:41
>> So, we're going to take >> I think there's another one where he where he talks about like and now we have to lower rates because of this. >> So amazing.
29:50
>> Well, yeah, there's one where we where he says, "Well, I'd love I'd love it.
29:53
I'd love it if if my buddy here would would lower the rates."
29:56
I love to see him in hard hats.
29:58
Uh really shows that they're, you know, getting close to the metal. >> Yep. Totally.
30:02
Well, uh, Donald Trump is doing deals trying to bring more money into the United States.
30:07
The news is that, uh, Japan is apparently committing $550 billion to the United States.
30:12
It's over 10% sovereign wealth fund. >> Yes. Yes. This is a crazy.
30:21
>> Very, very American to treat the sovereign wealth fund as just a private. >> Yeah. It's amazing. I don't know.
30:27
Was it in the journal today?
30:30
Oh, there's there's the No, I don't think I don't think this one printed yet, but uh look at this costly overrun to renovate Fed's office fuels criticism.
30:39
The journal's so good at picking images. This image is so iconic.
30:44
Uh >> yeah, so in the journal today, Trump's quest for his own sovereign fund gets $550 billion boost from Japan.
30:52
>> We were talking about this earlier was like kind of not wanting to play ball on the tariffs for a while.
30:56
There was a question playing ball.
30:57
This is now they're doing deals, >> but already I think there's some weird externalities as uh government uh intervention in free trade often has.
31:09
So, President Trump has long wanted a US sovereign wealth fund that would give him free reign to make big investments in key sectors.
31:14
Japan could help him get the next best thing.
31:16
As part of a trade deal reached this week, Japan agreed to invest 550 billion in projects across strategic US industries, including energy, semiconductor manufacturing, and ship building.
31:27
The White House said Trump would have final say over where the money goes.
31:30
Deploying capital, folks.
31:33
It's effectively the GP of the uh wealth of the sovereign wealth fund new title.
31:38
Uh and the US would keep 90% of the profits on any investment.
31:41
Yeah, it's like instead of like 2 and 20, it's like a 0 and 90.
31:47
>> Yeah, >> I guess that's >> sure we're getting some fees off the top, too.
31:51
>> I mean, we got to have management fees.
31:53
How how how else is Trump going to travel the three months in Europe?
31:56
>> All these tier one funds are like, "Oh, two and 20."
31:57
No, we we're we're a four and 40 shop.
31:59
We're we're three and 30 shop.
32:02
And they and they think they're so fancy.
32:04
Well, there's levels to this. Yeah.
32:06
And you just got absolutely mogged by the president. 90% carry.
32:10
Let's hear it for the United States, baby.
32:14
>> I mean, this this is going to inspire some hardworking alligators out there that are going to look at their fee structure and say, >> if I'm if I'm really a generational investor, should I should I really only be getting 20%.
32:26
>> Also, imagine getting imagine getting staffed on this as like a principal or like an analyst or something because like like >> Yeah.
32:32
Does is the investment team going to get some points on this? >> I don't think so.
32:35
I think I think no matter what you do in >> like you're basically salary capped at like 200k.
32:40
I don't think there's anyone in the government.
32:42
>> How are we gonna get our best and brightest? >> I know.
32:45
We gota uncap the salary cap.
32:48
Get some get some rising stars on.
32:50
>> We need some VPs from from uh everywhere from, you know, Blackstone to Sequoia.
32:53
I want Andrew Reed deploying the the US sovereign wealth fund. >> Poached poached.
33:01
>> Hey, Benchmarks hemorrhaging partners. Put him on the team.
33:04
>> Yeah, maybe maybe Victor is going to the US sovereign wealth fund.
33:07
>> Maybe that would be a big bombshell. I'd love to see it.
33:11
>> Uh, one Trump official said the administration was thinking of an arrangement like a sovereign wealth fund that [ __ ] Japan is funding.
33:16
I love how we're just like rebranding uh, sovereign wealth funds.
33:21
The money will take the form of equity loans and loan guarantees and come from the Japanese government, said Senator Bill Hagerty.
33:28
>> Not private companies specifically.
33:28
It's coming straight from the from the Japanese government, which I think is frustrating people in Japan.
33:33
Although uh Hiro Onoto I don't know if this he's he's using he's using they so it seems like he is not in Japan currently um says it's greater than 10% of their GDP they exported $150 billion to the US and assuming they just bore the extra cost of 15% extra even that's 20 20 billion a year so that is a huge huge commitment but I mean I guess if they have a big balance sheet like makes sense to put it to work somewhere.
34:00
Howard Lutnik said, "This is literally the Japanese government giving Trump 550 billion and says, "Go fix whatever you need to fix." >> I love it.
34:11
>> One admin official gave a hypothetical example of how Japanese money could be deployed.
34:15
The US could fund construction of a semiconductor facility for, say, Intel, then lease it to Intel and keep 90% of the leasing revenue.
34:23
>> Well, if you're looking to fix your code review process, get on graphite. dev.
34:26
Code review for the Age of AI.
34:26
Graphite helps teams on GitHub ship higher quality software faster.
34:29
Um anyway, let's continue with this.
34:32
Uh uh it the fund if the fund materializes as Trump envisions a significant question.
34:38
It would give an American president unprecedented power to steer money into the projects of his choosing potentially with some significant impacts on particular industries.
34:48
This is interesting because I feel like the story just broke and the reindustrialized crew isn't necessarily talking about it yet, but this feels extremely aligned with the whole reindustrialized movement.
34:58
The idea of of more more US dollars.
35:02
We saw this with the with the AI summit and the AI action plan.
35:06
There's a lot of talks about positioning, but there wasn't that much actual new legislation or new funding that could specifically move a particular project forward, which I think would be more exciting um to be like, okay, like, you know, we're building a bridge, we're building a dam, we're building a nuclear reactor, we're building something like the US government hasn't really been in build mode for a long time.
35:30
It feels like everything's kind of stalled and some of that's good because it's >> handling the founder.
35:34
We had um we had the founder of Bright AI on yesterday who scaled to a hundred million run rate or bootstrapped to a hundred million run rate uh and then recently raised from Kla.
35:45
He was saying a lot of US infrastructure was built during the World War II era with a 20y year uh expected 20-year lifespan uh and uh obviously is still uh what we're relying on today.
35:58
So, >> well, speaking of the reindustrialized crew, they sent us this wonderful clock from Shyola, a Detroitbased company.
36:06
Clocks are re-industrialized.
36:08
>> Yeah, clocks are fantastic. Thank you guys.
36:11
Very frustrated that we couldn't make it to Reindustrialize.
36:13
Uh, seemed like an awesome time with all the absolute boys out there having a good time.
36:18
Uh I think we will have our remote workflow worked out and studio stuff worked out so that we can travel more in the near future.
36:28
Um but it was fun having so many of the folks call in from re-industrialize give us the updates from the ground and excited to do more of that. So um who is this?
36:40
Christina Davis, Harvard University professor of Japanese politics who directs its program on US Japan relations said where this one deviates is the step toward investing at the president's direction with the profits going to the US.
36:52
It makes it sound coercive, socialist and unprecedented in any sense of past trade negotiations.
36:58
Now the US has a mix >> in any ways it makes sense that the president would be the the chief capital allocator, the chief GP. >> Yes. Yes. Yes.
37:08
So, >> commander-in-chief, GPinchief. >> Yeah.
37:12
What's weird is that we've we we've talked a lot about how when the US government tries to pick a winner, it often doesn't go very well.
37:20
The famous example, at least from 0ero to one, Peter Teal's book is uh Celindra.
37:24
Are you familiar with this?
37:26
So, Celindra was a clean energy startup. >> Oh, yes.
37:31
that uh was a was a cylinder uh like instead of just a flat photovoltaic panel.
37:37
panel. I believe it was like a like a cylinder and uh the idea was like clean energy and they got this massive grant from the Obama administration and the company went bankrupt and it was a big mark on this idea of the government like picking winners and backing companies
37:51
and uh and in 0ero to1 uh teal kind of outlines this idea that like from first principles you could tell that just mathematically a a circle didn't fill as much space as a square and so you should have gone with a square solar panel and so the the business model was kind of flawed from day one. And you could have
38:08
And you could have figured that out if you'd just done the basic math of of you know how much how energy dense is a circle versus a square.
38:16
If you're packing them in, pack a bunch of circles in there's going to be a bunch of extra space.
38:19
I think that's basically what happens.
38:21
Maybe I'm collapsing it a little bit, but I have not I'm not a huge fan of the government picking winners.
38:29
I like the Tesla model a little bit more where there was just this EV tax credit and anyone could have gone after it and then Tesla just dominated it and won it and then >> well even in China China effectively encourages massive competition and then kind of waits for there to be >> a breakout winner. Yep.
38:49
>> And that creates a talent vortex and then the state then the state is effectively saying starting to like really back it in a meaningful way. >> Yeah.
38:57
It's very like controversial. Pick the winner. >> Exactly.
39:00
It's it's somehow more capitalist and that's what and that's what this uh Harvard professor is uh is kind of taking shots at saying like it's pretty socialist to be picking winners.
39:12
And in a weird world like China's policies tend to be more capitalist in some ways.
39:18
some ways. like they are doing a lot of investing in technologies and and putting government and I guess taxpayer funds into strategic technologies and subsidizing whole industries like their chip manufacturing their supply chain for semiconductors has been lagging for like 50 years they've been not
39:36
competitive but the Chinese government has just been like well there's still an incentive to make semiconductors here there's still an incentive to make semiconductors here who's going to do it who's going to do it and it's one company and then it's Smick and then it's And then Huawei's stuff getting stuff. And it's the it should be the
39:50
And it's the it should be the same thing with electric cars in America. Tesla got a benefit.
39:53
Rivian also got a benefit. Lucid got a benefit.
39:57
And even when BMW went over into electric cars, they got a benefit.
40:00
And now those benefits are pulling back.
40:02
And we can go into what's happening with Tesla stock.
40:06
Well, to put the 550 billion number in some context, American tourists spent just under six billion dollar or uh $6 billion in tourism in Japan last year. Okay.
40:19
Um they'll earn it back in a hundred years.
40:22
100 years of tourism and they get it back.
40:24
But no, I mean the thing is that this is not them giving us the money.
40:28
Like they should earn a return.
40:31
>> I would be surprised if these infrastructure investments don't pay off.
40:33
It's going to be hard to beat the market if you're getting 10% of the of the of the up of the upside.
40:40
>> I mean, if you collapse it down, you know, you're basically you're basically treating Trump as a solo GP >> and you have to look at his historical irra and he's gone he's gone bankrupt a few few times.
40:51
But I think overall overall he's it's he's not just zeroing everything, right?
40:56
Some of the stuff's ripping.
40:58
I bet on average he's, you know, preserving capital if not returning multiples of it.
41:02
And so, you know, you think about a a scale of, okay, there's going to be a new semiconductor plant in Arizona and Japan's going to come in and underwrite a hundred billion dollars of, you know, development and some massive probably debt deal or something and they're going to earn some sort of return.
41:21
The chance that they don't get anything back is pretty low.
41:23
I think I don't think it I don't think this is money going into a pit and burning.
41:30
>> You're you're a little you're >> I'm a little worried.
41:31
I mean I mean the the example was uh the money goes into a uh let's say a semiconductor manufacturing facility. Yeah.
41:41
>> And then uh Intel would pay the US government to lease it and the US government would keep 90% of that.
41:46
it's going to be hard to um you will be losing money uh if you factor in inflation.
41:56
>> Maybe I I mean I the way I the way I see a deal happening is is I'm going to go I need a hundred billion dollars to go build a bunch of nuclear power plants.
42:06
I go to Trump or the US government and say I need a hundred billion and they're like great take 20 billion in equity, take 80 billion in debt.
42:15
debt. And then there's, you know, an an interest rate, a coupon rate attached to that debt and then the equity has some sort of value and hopefully the plan works out so that there's a multiple return on the equity and there's a you know a an interest rate that and like
42:31
you blend the IRS and you're getting to like I don't know 5 10% across everything and then yes the US is taking 90% of that but you are still preserving your capital like it it like the the idea that it's like instantly a zero is probably hopefully avoidable, right? >> It could be if they do another cylindra,
42:48
>> It could be if they do another cylindra, >> they'd have to do a lot of deals, but if they have a portfolio, you know, you would you would assume that the portfolio broadly does okay.
42:57
>> It's possible that Ashiba, the the president of uh the prime minister of Japan is just so AGI pilled.
43:01
He's and is such a firm believer that America is going to win the AI race that he's just says, "Yep, take it, Mr. Trump. You got it from here." >> Yeah.
43:12
I mean, it could be seen as a like are you comping it against uh buying treasuries because that's just a way to like index to the dollar if your if your currency is in decline like at least at the end of that term you've got 3%.
43:26
>> That would be really funny if Trump just takes the 550 billion of privacy bills >> to lower the rate to bring down the yield curve just wants to bring down >> just market buy market buying tea bills >> and taking 9% or sorry 90% of the yield. Anyways, lots of fun.
43:43
>> Asset management is the greatest business. AUM maxing.
43:45
He's auming Jeremy >> Gon. With this Yeah. Yeah.
43:50
There's a little more in here that I want to go through.
43:53
So, uh, the plan has raised more questions than answers on Wall Street and beyond.
43:56
Details remain unclear, including whether Japan will have any discretion over projects and the time period during which the investments will be made.
44:04
Hagerty said the investment will be overseen by two Japanesebacked administrators, Japan Bank and Nepon Export.
44:10
Uh, one administration official said the funds would likely arrive only as needed, so you make capital calls when you need to.
44:16
As you know, these deals have been agreed in principle, but they've not been fully papered yet.
44:19
Uh, in selecting investments, this is where it gets interesting.
44:23
Trump would have help from the Commerce Department's US Investment Accelerator, headed by former Morgan Stanley, investment banker, Michael Grimes, and polytenic alum.
44:33
I went to the same school as this guy. Absolute beast. He took Facebook public. He has a a massive row. He's like the king. >> The deal toy. Yeah. Final boss. >> Deal toy. Final boss.
44:47
You walk into his office and it's just there's no room to put down a coffee because there's just a deal toy on every single surface. It's insane. Uh absolute beast.
44:54
One of the greatest to ever do it.
44:57
His team will help identify investments and make sure the funds are used properly and expeditiously.
45:02
People with familiar with the matter said the size of the commitment dwarfs most investment funds.
45:07
It's more than twice the size of J J J J J J J J J J J J J J J J J J J Japan's gross foreign direct investment in the US last year and so we can't really evaluate the agreement because it's so vague at this stage.
45:16
There's a lot of vague deals happening right now.
45:18
The AI action plan is kind of in that territory now, but you know, we still are only six months into this administration.
45:25
Maybe all of this crystallizes.
45:27
Uh and then they comp it to uh Stargate, which was unveiled at the White House in January involved a commitment from OpenAI.
45:33
This has apparently already been scaled back.
45:37
unclear exactly what that means.
45:37
Um, and so there was also an EO from Trump uh in February directing his team to develop a plan for an establishment of a sovereign wealth fund within 90 days.
45:46
This is the start of that.
45:48
So, um, anyway, um, get on numeralhq. com. Sales tax on autopilot.
45:54
Spend less than five minutes per month on sales tax compliance.
45:58
Um, let's go to Avalanche Energy.
46:00
We got >> Avalanche >> was awarded a $10 million grant from Washington, the state, to develop fusion works neutron factory.
46:08
This marks smallcale fusion's evolution from a laboratory curiosity into a neutron source that creates realworld value from Robin uh Robin Langry, the CEO of Avalanche.
46:20
>> We've had a little show. Great guy.
46:20
I've toured his facility with Ben up in Washington. We had a lot of fun.
46:25
uh extremely hard project.
46:27
Smallcale fusion fusion is still not fully commercialized.
46:32
Small scale fusion is in some ways easier because you're making something smaller but also still untested.
46:37
Lots of work to be done but great to see that they have more money to develop more technology.
46:41
So congrats uh Washington state uh >> they've been really yeah it feels like Washington's been kind of under the radar as being like very hard tech friendly.
46:54
like he's had a pretty like he set up a whole facility over there by the SeaTac airport and uh seems to be able to do stuff.
47:00
Although he's not working with radiation because he's not doing uh fision, he's doing fusion.
47:03
And so his his like uh power sources are like he needs like hydrogen or something or you know it's like it's like pretty inert gases that aren't that big of a deal.
47:14
>> He should um he should talk to Trevor uh from Nicola's brother, the man. >> Oh yeah yeah yeah.
47:21
>> The head of head of hydrogen. >> Yeah.
47:23
I mean, you want to be taking taking advantage of those 80% energy gains for sure.
47:27
>> Yeah, they're making it for 80% less than anyone else in the known >> universe. Um, >> anyway, Finn.
47:32
AI the number one AI agent for customer service, number one in performance benchmarks, number one in competitive bake off, number one ranking on G2.
47:40
>> Say it again, don't get in a bake off with an AI if you if you enjoy winning.
47:46
>> Don't do it all the time.
47:46
Uh, great post here from Antonio uh Garcia Martinez.
47:52
He's coming on the show next week.
47:52
By the way, >> the 80s were the apex of American civilization and today is a sad day.
47:56
His memory will be a blessing.
48:00
>> Yes, we mentioned >> Hulk Hogan.
48:02
Let's play this video if we can.
48:05
>> Yeah, pull up that video and I will read from the Wall Street Journal.
48:06
Hulk Hogan is gone, but still everywhere.
48:08
He may not have been a traditional athlete, but the late pro wrestler's influence in sports and the culture at large entertainment pervasive.
48:17
So, um, I'm not sure where to put, this is from Jason Gay in the sports section of the Wall Street Journal.
48:25
Jason says, "I'm not sure where to put Hulk Hogan in the history of sports or whether to put him in there at all."
48:32
Hogan, who died Thursday at age 71, could pull off exceptional athletic feats with his massive sculpted 6'8 body.
48:40
We were we got some misinformation yesterday where we were quoting him at 6'7. Seven.
48:47
>> Seems like he's my height. Exactly.
48:47
Um, still a professional wrestler's trade is, spoiler alert, entertainment, not pure competition.
48:55
And yet, it's impossible not to recognize wrestling's evolution from regional circus to widespread cultural force.
49:02
It is crazy that wrest pro wrestling started as just like a traveling circus, like just a bunch of dudes coming into town and being like, "You want to see us fight?" So funny.
49:13
Today, this is an accepted, welltrodden observation.
49:16
Sports, politics, and daily life are closer atmospherically to the wrestling ring than ever before.
49:23
Uh, this is the idea of kayfabe in politics.
49:25
The idea of people being in on the joke.
49:27
They know that people are just saying things to rile up the other side. They're entertaining.
49:33
We see this in journalism and media. We see it in tech.
49:35
We see it all over the place.
49:37
And Jason here in the Wall Street Journal is drawing more analogies from that.
49:42
Uh, we become a nation of noisy confrontationalists.
49:48
The skillful soft touch replaced by the swing of the folding chair.
49:50
Reason is routinely drowned out by the loudest voices in the room.
49:55
Wrestling strips life's complications down to primal conflicts.
49:59
And few wrestlers embody this approach as famously and foreboingly as as Hulk Hogan.
50:05
I'm not a wrestling obsessive.
50:08
I've been a couple times. That's it.
50:10
I still need to look up the correct spelling for Bruno Sammartino, but I know enough to know Hogan, born Terry Bollea, was a transformative figure, one of the most larger than-l life characters in a larger than-l life universe.
50:25
And I think we have the video ready to pull up. >> It's not a video. >> Oh, it's not. It's just an image.
50:30
>> I think it's just a picture.
50:31
>> It's just a picture from AGM.
50:31
Well, we well, we did uh we did play the Hulk Hogan uh calling um calling out someone else, I forget, in one of those like pre-show uh reels on the last show.
50:41
So, you can go check that out if you want.
50:45
Anyway, uh he says, "A true brand name, Hogan over time refashioned himself as a heel to hero to heal and everything in between."
50:54
So, he went back and forth.
50:54
I think the actual wrestling term is a face.
50:57
A face is someone that everyone loves.
50:59
A heel is someone that everyone cheers to to lose.
51:01
But they both play they both play the role and there's a lot of interesting like fourth wall breaking all sorts of stuff going on.
51:08
He had too many comebacks, collapses and professional detours to count.
51:12
At one point he went and did movies and he came back and everyone was saying he's Hollywood Hogan. He's gone to Hollywood. He's sold out. He doesn't represent us.
51:22
And so that was like a whole character that he played up. Hollywood Hogan.
51:23
He's too good for the for the, you know, the the mainstream wrestling fan. And everyone loved that. There we go.
51:29
We got some video of Hogan running around with an American flag. You love >> him.
51:36
Over over time, his uh character seemed to merge with Terry.
51:43
>> Terry uh Blea, the the human. >> Yeah.
51:46
>> And Hulk just became the same person. >> Yeah.
51:49
>> Um >> I was talking to Rob about this.
51:51
There's there's this idea just generally in media about um like you play this character when you're on camera and but you want to be authentic but you don't want the the attacks on your character to ruin your personal life.
52:04
You don't want to lose yourself in the sauce.
52:06
It's all very it's all very complicated modern. It's very very bizarre.
52:09
Um c uh celebrized and repeatedly scandalized swapping places as poster boy and pariah.
52:18
fired for getting caught on tape using racist slurs, a strange protagonist at a media crusade, and even a a convention speaker.
52:26
Yeah, he spoke at the most recent RNC convention where he ripped off his shirt in uh in support of Donald Trump.
52:33
Uh he was controversial and omniresent through the end.
52:36
He exploded on the scene in the early 1980s.
52:39
A lot of people's first exposure when they ca when they when uh came when he appeared in the ring as Thunder Lips, the ultimate male against Rocky Balboa in Rocky 3, tossing Rock like a rag doll as a horrified Mickey and Adrian recoiled.
52:57
Going to Hollywood cost Bala his job in the then WWF.
52:59
They didn't want him to do it, but Hulkamania only grew and he returned.
53:04
The fever reached the point he landed on the cover of Sports Illustrated in April of 1985.
53:12
Biceps flexed, hands clawed, a fictional barbarian at the gate.
53:16
Transitionalists >> pull up this post from Luke Metro. >> Oh yeah. Traditionalists howled.
53:20
Pro wrestling wasn't real sports.
53:23
How could the Hulkster enter the same cathedral as Kofax, Ali, and Abdul Jabar?
53:27
I admit to harboring the same feelings when I see pro wrestling events treated seriously by major sports outlets. Why are we doing this? Why?
53:39
Yet, wrestling's reach is indisputable.
53:41
And Hogan's timing in its ascension was impeccable.
53:44
He hitched his career to its leap from localized products to to global force.
53:49
A handsome blonde agent of Vince McMahon's aggressive growth strategy and a media ecosystem that cultivated better than most.
53:55
Hulk understood a very old-fashioned wrestling concept.
54:00
To be seen, it's better to be outrageous.
54:03
To be heard, you need to be loud.
54:05
If you if it earns you love, great.
54:08
But even if you are hated, you are still noticed. Great lesson there.
54:13
So, what did Luke Metro say?
54:15
>> He says, "You watch the earth, I'll watch the sky, brother." >> What a great post.
54:18
of course referencing the Gawker take down where these two >> uh >> yeah linked in such an odd way.
54:27
Such different characters and yet linked both in the support of Donald Trump at various points on the conservative politics world and also with a a mutual distaste for Gawker and their salacious reporting. It's absolutely insane.
54:44
Uh this kind of intentional performance, what wrestlers call a work, is routine in sports.
54:52
Common is the athlete who arrives on the scene and makes noise to get attention, make a name, and make money.
54:57
It's pervasive in every profession now.
54:58
The media used to be a necessary partner, but now the digital tools exist to do it on one's own.
55:05
uh influencers, business antagonists, media flamethrowers, and the performative fray of social media, the exhausting, not very real, reality programming on television.
55:15
There's a bit of wrestling in all of it.
55:16
I'm sure I'm not sure the tools exist.
55:20
>> How much How much do you think the combined entity that includes uh WWE and UFC is worth in the public markets today?
55:28
>> I would say like $4 billion. >> Close. >> How much? >> 33 billion.
55:33
W not close at all, dude.
55:33
I was off by an order of magnitude. Wow. Yeah, >> that's a beast.
55:40
>> Yeah, it also includes um IMG, the sports uh talent modeling agency, too.
55:47
>> I think they have a modeling division, but it's primarily sports talent.
55:48
They also own PBR, the premier bull riding.
55:53
>> Oh, >> we got a we got a spons we got to get a TVPN bull riding.
55:58
>> I'm a huge JB Monty fan.
55:58
One of the greatest to ever do it.
55:59
He's one of the the most legendary bull riders. I know all about him.
56:03
Recently injured, very sad, but the bull that retired him by breaking his back, he now owns and affectionately takes care for and they are now friends. Beautiful story.
56:13
Uh I'm not sure the tools exist to turn the clock back.
56:18
The appetite exists for relief, but I don't know if there's room anymore for for subtlety, context, or even expertise.
56:24
The algorithms rem reward volume, and so does the culture.
56:29
The rest of us are caught in the noise.
56:31
Hulk Hogan is departed, but he remains among us.
56:33
What a wonderful obituary.
56:33
Uh, tell me about UFC and how this >> It is.
56:38
It is incredible that so many It says something about the character that Terry played in Hulk Hogan that he could had have these glowing obituaries despite having so many, you know, terri, you know, sort of terrible moments.
56:53
whe when that uh he made some some terrible comments uh on recording >> uh at one point and uh to still to get uh this uh >> referencing what I said earlier is like who is the man? Who is the man? Is it Terry? Is it is it Hulk Hogan?
57:12
Are they are they the same? Are they the same thing?
57:16
I watched a I watched a hilarious interview with him in maybe GQ or something where they go in his house, they see his supplement stack and he said that during this time when he was fighting, this is insane.
57:26
He uh he would uh he was like, "What was they were like, "What was your diet? What were you on?"
57:33
He was like, "Well, I'd wake up and I'd have a beer and two Tylenols and then uh and then like after the fight, I'd have six beers and two more Tylenols, something like that."
57:41
And I remember you asked me one day, you were like, "Oh, I got like aches. I'm not feeling well."
57:46
And I was like, "You got to take Tylenol."
57:47
And you were and you were like, >> "Why didn't you recommend beer?"
57:51
>> I should have recommended beer.
57:51
But I remember you I remember you asked me like, "Okay, John, like I know you're like really like nerdy about all this stuff.
57:57
Like you probably have some like really solid rationale for like why Tylenol is like the correct painkiller to take."
58:02
And my entire rationale was just like it was good enough for Hulk Hogan.
58:06
But in this in this video, they're asking all these questions.
58:10
They're doing the rapid fire questions and uh and they ask him like Hulk Hogan, if you could fight anyone, alive or dead, who would you fight?
58:16
And he just says Bill Clinton.
58:18
It's like I have no idea what he's thinking and it's just like and they just move on to the next one.
58:24
It's like why is he holds some grudge.
58:27
I assume for political reasons or something, but uh it was just a wild thing to say. Very entertaining.
58:31
But on the note of entertainment, I want your reaction to >> that.
58:35
Seems a little more tan than you'd than you'd want to go for.
58:38
>> This is a little too tan.
58:38
I think that's probably the camera adding some color correction or something.
58:42
It seems like the exposure on the camera was a little low that day, but he is very tan.
58:46
Uh because here, look look at this picture in the Wall Street Journal.
58:50
It's the same photo and it's much it's a much more normal tan, but he is he is very I don't know if he's Italian, but he is he is very tan.
58:56
Um so I want your I want you to explain to me about how this relates to UFC.
59:02
Uh in this article they say common is the athlete who arrives on the scene and makes noise to get attention, make a name and make money.
59:10
It's pervasive in every profession now.
59:12
Uh how does getting attention work in UFC?
59:14
You mentioned that Conor McGregor was particularly good at like trash talking and that allowed him to be more successful than some of the modern UFC fighters.
59:22
But how does that dynamic work?
59:24
Because I feel like UFC is not fake like like like wrestling. It is very real.
59:28
And so why don't why is it that the points aren't all that matters?
59:33
Or I guess there aren't points in UFC, but like the wins, the knockouts.
59:34
If I come in, I should be able to be entirely silent and win and I should still be comped the same, but that's not how it works in UFC. Explain it.
59:44
>> So yeah, so Conor McGregor had uh had had arguably had the gift of Gab, yet he backed it up with a series of wins that elevated him to superstar status. Right.
59:58
you can't just be a yapper, but there was some iconic moments where he would uh I believe um uh I'm forgetting the guy's name, but when he was fighting the um Brazilian champion, he basically called exactly how he was going to knock the guy out like the day before.
1:00:16
>> Um and there was these moments that just like launched him into superstar status.
1:00:21
Since then, you've had people like Ilia Taporia who are uh probably more talented um better all-around fighters, um more consistent.
1:00:30
And it's interesting because Ilia Taporia, the main critique early on was that he was just like a a um uh just copying Conor McGregor. He wasn't his own man.
1:00:41
He would >> use Conor McGregor like lines.
1:00:43
He got a tattoo that's almost exactly like Conor's on his back.
1:00:47
Uh but overall like the UFC people like hardcore fans will be frustrated because they'll say, "Oh, this is just like wrestling.
1:00:56
Like he shouldn't be getting the fight.
1:00:58
This is just like pro wrestling."
1:00:59
It's like you realize the companies are owned by the same group.
1:01:03
Like it's it's all it's an entertainment company, right?
1:01:05
So wrestling and are both owned by the same company.
1:01:09
>> Yeah, that's what I saying.
1:01:09
The $33 billion public company called TKO.
1:01:14
>> It's all entertainment.
1:01:14
It's an entertainment company. Yeah.
1:01:16
>> Uh entertainment disguised as sport.
1:01:19
Obviously, the athletes on in UFC are incredible, but um o >> you know over and over you've seen uh the best paid fighters uh are end up being oftentimes most entertaining.
1:01:31
>> The uh Russian fighters like Kabib uh were historically very humble and uh very quiet, >> less entertaining >> and uh but they were so dominant uh like Islam is so dominant.
1:01:42
He can be humble and still uh draw attention, but nothing like nothing like Connor did in his prime, right?
1:01:50
UFC swag walk is like iconic.
1:01:53
There's a lot of things that are >> So, and then you have people like Patty the BDY from the UK who who's a loudmouth.
1:01:59
Uh very entertaining in a bunch of different ways. He he swells up.
1:02:03
He he gains like seemingly 50 pounds in between fights. >> Yeah.
1:02:07
When I saw him for the first time, I was like, "That does not look like a fighter.
1:02:10
looks like a musician or something. >> That's fantastic. >> Yeah.
1:02:14
I'm going to look at the uh the pound-for-pound rankings uh right now on on UFC if I can pull this up.
1:02:21
>> Yeah, it's interesting because that that hasn't really I feel like that hasn't really happened in the NFL for some reason.
1:02:26
Like because the the Super Bowl is not decided based on any qualitative factors whatsoever. It's purely stats.
1:02:33
I believe there's no voting at all.
1:02:38
College football used to be >> Yeah.
1:02:39
The UFC is trying to make fights that will sell pay-per-views. Exactly.
1:02:43
And so they will elevate somebody.
1:02:43
I mean, this was um uh this is the critique of Shawn Ali, right?
1:02:49
Uh another guy with uh very bright uh bright hair.
1:02:56
>> He posts Tik Toks of himself, you know, smoking weed and stuff like that.
1:03:01
>> Um and then uh has been put in his place fairly recently.
1:03:04
But again, he they they would call it Dana White privilege, right?
1:03:09
So, it's like a fighter who's entertaining, loud enough, enough of a draw. Yeah.
1:03:15
>> Um, but if you look at the pound-for-pound rankings, there's some guys on there that over time, >> the pound-for-pound ranking tends to reflect somebody's actual athletic abilities. Totally.
1:03:28
You have Ilia, Islam, Morab, Tom Aspenol, and Andre Alexandre Pantoia who are all uh ultimately just incredible athletes.
1:03:37
Um and uh a lot of the loudmouths will end up getting paid quite well, but they're not necessarily getting on that uh pound-for-pound ranking.
1:03:46
Yeah, there is a little bit of a dynamic of that in traditional professional sports where I believe like the MLB is basically hoping for Dodgers Yankees in the World Series like every single time because the Dodgers and the Yankees have like the biggest fan bases.
1:04:01
So, broadly there will be more people tuning into that than say two uh two teams facing off from second and third tier cities.
1:04:08
But there's no world where, you know, oh, going into the Super Bowl, you know, there's really like, you know, a lot of trash talking going on.
1:04:16
But like, >> yeah, it's just looked down on there.
1:04:19
There's an interesting story, Colobby Coington. >> Okay.
1:04:23
>> Uh, who is has fought for championship, I think, a couple times, never won.
1:04:27
He was at a point in the UFC where he was facing getting cut.
1:04:33
>> He was just not really doing that well.
1:04:35
M >> uh and he decided to basically completely rebrand himself as a heel and just say the most offensive possible things he could say.
1:04:44
He came out loudly in support of Trump >> uh when that was much uh much less popular.
1:04:49
He would post videos of himself with like seemingly only fans, uh, creators, uh, adult entertainers, and it totally actually turned around his career, and he ended up, um, again, he didn't actually fight and win, uh, didn't win any titles, um, and probably never will, but >> uh, it it definitely turned his career around.
1:05:12
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1:05:19
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1:05:26
>> Not endorsed, not endorsed by audio, but uh endorsed by John at this moment.
1:05:29
Turn turn, you know, your CRM should look like WWE, right? Exactly. Exactly.
1:05:34
You should be really getting into it with people.
1:05:38
>> You're using our competitor.
1:05:38
Take a look at this deal card and tell me you don't want to switch right now.
1:05:41
Uh yeah, channel Hulk Hogan in your next uh BR meeting.
1:05:47
>> Uh Shiel has a good post here announcing some news.
1:05:50
Tesla is telling staff internally that it plans to roll out its robo taxi service in San Francisco this weekend and they'll include Marin much of the East Bay in San Francisco and stretch to s uh to stretch south to San Jose.
1:06:07
This will be crazy if it uh if it goes through this weekend.
1:06:10
I mean, it's gonna come soon.
1:06:12
Uh will be very interesting to see because I imagine that driving in San Francisco is a little bit harder than driving in Austin, but there's a ton of people that have Teslas and have been driving around San Francisco for a decade or more now with cameras.
1:06:25
So, they should have a lot of data. They should be trained.
1:06:29
>> I think the robo taxis will be fine.
1:06:29
Uh if the if if the robo taxis were a Tesla humanoid driving stick shift, they'd have a really rough time in San Francisco.
1:06:38
You ever driven stick in San Francisco?
1:06:40
>> No, but it is extremely hard on the hills.
1:06:42
I maybe once I Yeah, I think I actually once did it. It's really bad.
1:06:45
my first car, Toyota, >> 20-year-old Toyota stick shift, >> uh, and I would drive it, drive it into San Francisco, >> and, uh, it was already at a time where people were just assumed everybody was in an automatic.
1:07:00
And so you'd pull up on just like the most steep hill and somebody would come up, >> uh, you know, right behind you, park, you know, an inch away from you and, uh, it's very exhilarating.
1:07:09
So, I think they'll do fine.
1:07:11
It will be interesting though, like you know, are the car are the robo taxis going to be like followed by another car?
1:07:18
>> We'll probably have safety drivers in them for a while. Yeah. Right.
1:07:19
Um and uh and they'll probably be teleoperated for a while.
1:07:24
The the the the question I think is just like will we see memes on X of people switching because we've seen a lot of people in San Francisco post. I think uh what is it?
1:07:34
Justine Moore from Andre Horowit said that she hit her like 500th Whimo ride.
1:07:38
Like people truly just use Whimo constantly and they've really shifted from Uber to Whimo and so will they shift again to Tesla? Will they be dual using? Will one be cheaper?
1:07:49
Will it be a price war, capital war?
1:07:51
What's going to happen there?
1:07:53
Uh finally, they're going to head so it'll be interesting to follow.
1:07:56
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Um, in other news, if you're not looking to take a robo taxi, I would recommend picking up this 2025 Ferrari SF90XX. It's 2. 3 million.
1:08:18
Uh, it's a stunning example here, loaded with over $100,000 in options.
1:08:24
And everyone will know that you are not just rich, but wealthy because this car is probably going to depreciate like crazy.
1:08:33
>> I don't know how many of these are how many of the XX are they making?
1:08:35
Well, the the original SF90 priced at $700 $800,000, but it was not a limited production run.
1:08:43
And so it has traded down to about half that price.
1:08:46
Uh very unfortunate for the SF90 buyers in the audience.
1:08:51
Our our hearts go out to you after taking such a bath.
1:08:54
But uh you can make it all back on an SF90XX. >> I love the XX.
1:08:59
I got to say >> now is the is the XX a a a street legal car?
1:09:06
I I they they do this weird thing where they make a road car, then they make it a track car, and then they make the track car, road car version, and we've gone kind of back and forth and back and forth.
1:09:13
But I think this is the road the road version of the track car version of the road car. Is that right? I think I'm right. >> I think you're right.
1:09:20
The chat the chat will correct correct us quickly.
1:09:24
>> I'm pretty sure the SF I I'm pretty sure the XX series is is they took it they put it they got it ready for the track and then they dialed it back to where it was street legal again.
1:09:31
Anyway, you got to pick this up, folks. It's a it's a steal.
1:09:35
John Xley in the chat says, "Just got a notification from the FT Anthropic is reportedly raising capital from the Middle East at a valuation north of 150 billion. >> 150 link. Um, >> that is wild. >> Love to see it.
1:09:53
>> But I'm sure >> seems like every company in the world is using clawed code. >> Yeah. >> Maybe even open AI. >> Yeah.
1:10:00
>> Uh, it's just that good. Yep.
1:10:00
So, the article went up 11 minutes ago.
1:10:03
Artificial intelligence startup Anthropics is in early talks.
1:10:05
Okay, not advanced talks.
1:10:08
>> Early talks, >> no term sheet yet.
1:10:09
Uh at more than double its valuation to more than 150 billion in a new funding round, giving it additional firepower to keep pace with rival rivals building advanced models. >> Okay.
1:10:20
>> Um it's preliminary stages uh has received interest uh which was a massive jump from their current $61 billion price tag.
1:10:30
Um, so it sounds like they're talking with uh MGX, Abu Dhabi's uh AI fund.
1:10:38
Um, and again coming off um coming off that nice memo that they had uh that leaked earlier this week saying >> uh saying something to the effect he basically said >> bad >> they're bad >> bad people are going to make money on this. Um, yeah.
1:10:57
He said, "Unfortunately, I think no bad person should ever benefit from our success is a pretty difficult principle to run a business on."
1:11:05
>> That's the worst quote.
1:11:05
The quote you should drop is, "I can change him. I can change him.
1:11:09
Wait until wait until he if I don't if if he's doing something bad over there, wait until he starts talking to Claude."
1:11:14
And he's like, "Yeah, maybe I should be nicer.
1:11:16
Maybe I should just get into the Golden Gate Bridge.
1:11:18
Have him chat with Golden Gate Bridge Claude for a while. Cheer him up.
1:11:21
and whoever he whoever Daario is worried about, get him on the straight and narrow.
1:11:26
It's >> just so funny because um it's like how much how much uh how how much does Anthropic rely on sovereign investment from the Middle East already for their business?
1:11:41
>> Oh, just through the VCs through the past. >> Right. Right. >> Um all life, right?
1:11:46
uh they're a a key player in the global economy and it's just I mean it's I mean I've I've >> uh been uh I've been to the to the UAE twice and met so many uh so many amazing people and share >> I've never been to the UAE I've been to Qatar and it was cool. >> Yeah.
1:12:09
>> Um and other than that I don't think I've been anywhere in the Middle East. Maybe I should go. I don't know. Need to do a world tour.
1:12:17
I I met uh met a a buddy of mine uh a now now friend when I met him >> he showed me he had his uh formal um formal wear on >> and he got it custom made to >> I'm like you casual Friday over here >> casual Friday over here sorry folks sorry folks um >> and he had a a custom insert for his vape and then extra cartridges side >> that's pretty sick >> who's that who's that suit designer that does extra for pockets everywhere. That's like a thing.
1:12:46
Is that Is that >> I'm not going to I'm not going to I'm not going to name drop their friend.
1:12:52
Their friend accidental pockets happen. >> That's great.
1:12:57
>> Just throw a pocket on.
1:12:58
>> So So these are not advanced talks. These are early talks.
1:13:02
>> Early talks, preliminary talks. >> A preliminary talks. Okay.
1:13:05
>> But they are talking terms.
1:13:06
>> I There are other preliminary talks going on >> between us and ADQU for their next for next billboard buy.
1:13:11
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1:13:17
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1:13:27
We're pretty much always in advanced talks always with the good folks at ADQ.
1:13:32
>> Uh Bernard Arno is in the paper again.
1:13:36
Uh LVMH boss Bernard Arno seeks to avert the trade war.
1:13:40
This is a very interesting article.
1:13:42
I wanted to kick it off with a little background on Bernard Arno.
1:13:45
So we have some posts here.
1:13:45
One from Speedwell Research.
1:13:48
Um he was explaining the difference between iPhones and Dom Pering and the CEO of of LVMH says in 50 years time will the iPhone still be used or the people who are making it today will they have found out what will be at the cutting edge at that time?
1:14:07
But I believe I can say without being mistaken that in 50 years time we will still be drinking Don Perin. >> And I agree. >> Iconic. >> I agree.
1:14:18
Johnny IV and Sam Alman aren't teaming up to make a champagne brand, baby.
1:14:23
They're coming for the iPhone.
1:14:25
>> The issue is it's hard to uh it's hard to create legacy quickly. >> It is. It is.
1:14:30
Heritage is not is not made in a day.
1:14:32
Uh the other funny thing this is extremely disrespectful to Apple. Did you know this?
1:14:36
So, it's it's disrespectful in multiple ways.
1:14:38
One, uh obviously Apple would say, "Of course, we'll be around in 50 years."
1:14:42
But, uh Apple has a set of rules for PR people and if you're working with them and you're and you're talking about the iPhone, they have a set of rules for how you talk about the products.
1:14:56
And they specifically don't want you to say the iPhone.
1:15:01
They say, "Let's talk about iPhone." >> Really? >> Yes.
1:15:06
And if you watch the keynote, they never say the iPhone, they say iPhone, no the.
1:15:11
>> And this is just like part of their thing.
1:15:13
And they have a a a set of rules that are like it's like hundreds of pages in this PDF.
1:15:19
It's crazy how much control they exert over the uh over like >> Siri to say the iPhone.
1:15:29
>> So they uh they have a bunch of funny things.
1:15:31
Uh you're not supposed to say click here.
1:15:33
You're not supposed to use App Store generically.
1:15:35
You're supposed to capitalize it.
1:15:38
You're not supposed to say uh the device wants, thinks, or tries.
1:15:43
Apple prefers a tone that's helpful, not whimsical or personified.
1:15:49
Uh you're not supposed to describe the apps that come with the device as free.
1:15:53
You're not supposed to say, "Oh yeah, Apple includes like a free maps app."
1:15:56
You're not supposed to say that if you're doing an iPhone review.
1:15:58
And so, um, choose your choose your words wisely if you're, uh, if you're trying to get in good graces of Apple's PR team.
1:16:04
And I don't think Bernard Arno will be reviewing the next iPhone with language like this.
1:16:11
But maybe people will be using their iPhones to buy Don Perryan in >> Max Meyer highlighted a quote from Bernard Arno a while back uh, earlier this year.
1:16:21
Uh he says when uh when you cannot you cannot dream when you talk numbers when you create desire profits are a consequence.
1:16:30
>> So good you be creating desire.
1:16:32
>> I think this is in reference to the Tiffany store in New York. >> Yes.
1:16:36
He spent $500 million renovating the Fifth Avenue Tiffany flagship.
1:16:41
People were like that sounds like a lot to spend on a renovation of a single store.
1:16:46
He says you can't dream when you talk numbers.
1:16:48
Don't talk numbers, create desire.
1:16:51
And if you want to sleep in the Tiffany store of mattresses, get Nate sleep. Get a Pod Five Ultra.
1:17:00
It has a 5-year warranty, 30 night risk-free trial, free return, >> except free shipping exception.
1:17:06
>> So, uh, David Senra also has a good quote.
1:17:08
Bernard Arno's advice to himself in business.
1:17:10
I think the most important thing is to position yourself for long term and not be too impatient which I am by nature and I have to control myself.
1:17:19
I think that's a good point and and Senra also highlights 10 highlights about Bernard Arno.
1:17:24
He made a bunch of commitments that early that were very very detail- oriented things that you wouldn't typically notice but once you'd seen tens of thousands of stores over the years it's what comes to your mind immediately.
1:17:34
He spots any inongruities that might disrupt the aura of opulence.
1:17:40
he has carefully constructed.
1:17:40
Then he reels off texts and emails to his senior executive describing any perceived deficiencies and bullet points of obsessive detail.
1:17:48
Arnos has assembled the world's largest luxury conglomerate and globalized a sector once constrained by the limited ambitions of family-owned European companies encrusted in tradition.
1:18:00
very good at in in stewarding these brands that probably are owned by families and don't want to part ways if they you know it's not just a source of income for the family but it's also a source of pride to be the owner of a of a luxury house but uh Bernard figures out how to get them to part with it.
1:18:17
Uh he believed luxury brands could be larger than anyone at the time imagined.
1:18:23
Yeah, there was that um the acquired does such a such a a good coverage of of LVMH of course, but >> uh just how long he just how badly he wanted Dior and how it ended up in the hands of this like weird governmentowned uh conglomerate. >> Anyways, wild story.
1:18:42
>> Uh he did take over Dior.
1:18:42
So it had three stores in the equivalent of $90 million in sales when he acquired it. Now it has 439 stores.
1:18:48
So, I mean, a massive growth and 9. 5 billion in sales. He 100xed the business. Absolutely insane.
1:18:59
>> It's it's it's wild how bullish he was despite, you know, probably not being able to predict social media early on.
1:19:07
Like he like you could kind of identify flex culture just maybe in a cafe or a restaurant. >> Totally.
1:19:14
>> But, uh, scaling flex culture in the way that uh, Instagram and social media did. Yeah.
1:19:19
uh has has been incredible.
1:19:22
>> So if you're looking for a luxury watch, get on bezel. Go to getb bezel. com.
1:19:24
Your bezel concier is available now to source you any watch on the planet. Seriously, any watch.
1:19:29
So let's talk about how he's working behind the scenes to a avert a trade war.
1:19:34
President Trump's efforts to secure a trade deal with the European Union have the help of an old powerful friend, luxury titan Bernard Arno.
1:19:42
The LVMH chief has spent recent weeks shuttling between Europe's capitals, meeting with German Chancellor Frederick Murs and Italian Prime Minister Georgia Maloney, uh pressing them to agree to a deal along the lines of the one Trump reached with Japan this week.
1:20:00
He and he has spoken to the president seeking to deescalate tensions with Brussels.
1:20:05
Arno is also hedging his bets.
1:20:08
He plans to open another Louis Vuitton factory in Texas, a move partly credited with sparing the luxury industries from tariffs during Trump's first term.
1:20:18
"I'm pushing as much as I can for us to reach an agreement with the Americans so that we don't get caught up in a trade war, which would be extremely damaging for European businesses," Arno said in an interview at LVMH's headquarters in Paris.
1:20:33
Much is now at stake for Arno.
1:20:33
On Thursday, LVMH reported a 22% fall in first half net profit hit by sharp decline in sales as its core fashion and leather goods division that includes Louis Vuitton and Christian Dior Christian Dior.
1:20:48
Uh the company is contending with a range of challenges.
1:20:53
China long the luxury industry's growth engine is in a protracted economic slump and consumer confidence in the US which accounts for onethird of the group's sales has been shaken by uncertainty over tariffs then some consumers are now questioning the inherent value of luxury goods after years of price rises that's
1:21:14
insane who are these c who are these consumers it's ridiculous uh investors meanwhile are scrutinizing whether The business model of LVMH, a conglomerate of more than 70 75 brands that ranges from cosmetics retailer Sephora to Hennessy Conac is built for a world with rising trade barriers and deepening geopolitical uncertainty. LVMH's shares
1:21:35
LVMH's shares are down more than 30% since January.
1:21:41
that is they are one of the durable losers because the S&P 500 and the MAG 7 have both dropped down probably around 20 30% uh in some cases during the post uh uh liberation day tariffs but they all bounced back and now Jensen's running a $4 trillion
1:22:02
>> LVMH is bouncing back it's been rocky over the last week but they're up 11% over the last 30 days uh but like you said down 27% in the last six months uh but only down 10% year to date and they've been uh >> growing uh nicely into the new year. So,
1:22:18
So, Arno pioneered the luxury brand conglomerate in an era when the world economy was was opening up.
1:22:25
Lots of trade, a burgeoning middle class around the globe, fueled a decadesl long boom in luxury spending that made him one of the world's richest men.
1:22:33
Now, LVMH's two biggest markets, the US and China are at loggerheads with Europe and are no caught in the middle.
1:22:40
Trump is demanding European countries move manufacturing to the United States to avoid tariffs.
1:22:44
A tall order for luxury brands that market their wares as made in Europe with oldw world craftsmanship.
1:22:50
That's a very good point.
1:22:52
Arno, yeah, it is funny to imagine a Birkin bag made in Texas.
1:22:54
It's just like it it just doesn't feel right. It's not the brand.
1:23:00
>> Um Trump uh so Arno said that while LVMH is strong enough to ride out the slowdown, other luxury companies were getting exposed.
1:23:08
Just echoing Warren Buffett, he added that when the tide goes out, you see who's been swimming without a swimsuit.
1:23:14
For our know the luxury downturn is temporary, not a structural shift, and successful investors often do the opposite of stock stock market players who he called a bit sheeplike. Shots fired.
1:23:27
LVMH's array of labels gives the group scale to attract top talent like creative directors and designers.
1:23:34
Secure prime retail locations and negotiate favorable media rates by buying in bulk.
1:23:39
According to the billionaire in periods when the economic climate is more difficult when markets slow down, which is the case today, we tend to come out stronger.
1:23:46
Arno is putting his money where his mouth is.
1:23:50
His his family holding company has have bought more than 1 billion in of LVMH shares since the end of January. regulatory filings show.
1:23:57
So, he's buying back in, increasing his stake.
1:23:59
He said that uh he said that put them he said that put them on their the track to own more than half of LVMH's stock by the start of next year.
1:24:10
The most urgent order is of the business.
1:24:12
However, >> breaking news, John LVMH is in talks to sell Mark Jacobs. >> Oh, wow.
1:24:19
>> Michael Mirllor in the chat again.
1:24:19
Just just breaking uh breaking news, delivering insights.
1:24:24
Uh not super surprised to see this news.
1:24:28
It feels like Marc Jacobs, I don't know any people in in and around uh our world that are super excited to buy uh whatever is coming down the Marc Jacobs runway.
1:24:43
Um >> uh so anyways, LVMH is in discussions to sell fashion brand Marc Jacobs in a deal that could fetch around 1 billion according to people familiar with the matter.
1:24:52
Uh they've been discussing deals with multiple parties including Reebok owner Authentic.
1:24:56
Uh Authentic I think is >> um we should try to have the CEO on sometime.
1:25:03
They they basically buy up um >> let me uh list all their brands but they buy up brands that are honestly I hate to say it uh aging out a little bit.
1:25:11
Not not necessarily aging out but losing some relevancy.
1:25:17
Reebok, Champion, Nautica, >> Aerapost Stall, Eddie Bower, >> uh, Brooks Brothers, Bibong, Quicksilver, Juicy Couture, etc.
1:25:26
So, they buy these brands seemingly when they're in decline and then try to and then try to kind of make them more relevant.
1:25:35
I think I think the strategy has generally worked pretty well.
1:25:37
Um, and I could see them uh reinvigorating Marc Jacobs, but not surprising.
1:25:43
It just doesn't feel like it's in the same category as as many of the other uh LVMH brands. >> Yeah.
1:25:51
The the thing that I remember about Marc Jacobs was that one point they had a line called Mark by Mark Jacobs which I thought was just hilarious and recursive and tauntological.
1:26:00
Of course it's by Mark Jacobs if it's called Mark.
1:26:02
But >> I would like to see Mark Andrees have a standalone fund in a 16Z by Mark by Mark Andre and his little personal >> Yeah.
1:26:13
get in the solo GP game, >> give Allah Gil a run for his money.
1:26:16
Uh, but the the the key turnaround strategy if you're trying to turn around Mark Jacobs or increase Aeroper Pastel or Nautica, of course, put City Sweeney in the ad. That's the move.
1:26:28
Overfit quantitative strategies has the meme.
1:26:33
You find your target audience, craft a compelling message, reach them through experience marketing. Storytelling is key.
1:26:38
Long-term brand loyalty is the end goal.
1:26:41
And uh they say this marketing thing is easy.
1:26:42
You just put Sydney Sweeney in the ad.
1:26:44
And of course that's referring to what is it? American Eagle. >> American Eagle.
1:26:49
Are they already owned by authentic brands? >> Oh, maybe. I don't know. >> Anyway, >> no.
1:26:55
American Eagle is publicly listed.
1:26:57
>> Publicly listed and the new CEO is making moves, putting Sydney Sweeney in ads and uh absolutely printing and bringing new relevancy to that brand. >> I mean, wild.
1:27:06
They're up 16% over the past 5 days.
1:27:11
>> When was the last time people were talking about >> Sweeney effect?
1:27:14
>> When was the last time people were talking about American?
1:27:16
>> I wonder I I I really wonder how much they paid her for this because she clearly uh could I mean probably it would be hard for her to capture the real value of this. >> Totally.
1:27:28
If what was the market cap move like how what's their market cap and you said >> sitting at 2 billion up 16% over the past 5 days. That's 300 million.
1:27:36
So, Sydney, if you got less than 200 million, call us.
1:27:40
We'll help you negotiate the next one.
1:27:41
Uh because you deserve every penny.
1:27:45
>> The question The question is is how many how many times? >> A great ad. >> How many times?
1:27:49
Oh, and this apparently somebody called out the second part of this ad was made with AI. >> Oh, really?
1:27:55
>> So, look when the car is driving away. >> Okay. Okay.
1:27:58
>> So, she's getting in the car. This is real. >> Interesting. Okay.
1:28:02
Could have been fake news [Applause] >> and then transitions.
1:28:11
>> Yeah, I don't think she was doing that burnout.
1:28:13
>> Yeah, the burnout would be really hard to do in a sound stage like that.
1:28:14
That feels really, really difficult to >> Well, some deep TBPN lore.
1:28:17
Our production team went to college uh film school with Sydney Sweeney.
1:28:25
>> Yeah, >> I don't know if I'm supposed to do, >> but I just doxed you guys.
1:28:29
Um, anyway, uh, I am a podcast crossover accelerationist.
1:28:34
I posted this last night.
1:28:36
I'm not satisfied with Sam Alman on Theo Von.
1:28:38
I want Tyler Cowan on Hot Ones.
1:28:40
I want Dylan Patel on Nelk Boys.
1:28:43
And I want Sarah Payne on Impulsive.
1:28:43
Uh, had some fun with this.
1:28:46
Uh, people are really into this.
1:28:49
>> Imagine the Hot Ones audience interacting with watching Tyler Cowan. >> It'd be hilarious. It'd be amazing.
1:28:54
I All of these are good ideas that would go viral.
1:28:57
Um, I I I want more of these crazy crossovers.
1:29:00
And I was thinking about it like the Sam Alman on Theo Vaughn.
1:29:03
This is a this is a formula that is it feels very new, but it it has happened before.
1:29:08
And I was thinking about, are you familiar with Loveline?
1:29:13
So, back in the late 90s, early 2000s, there was a show, a radio show.
1:29:18
>> You were like what, 30? >> Yeah, exactly.
1:29:21
>> I don't want to date I don't want to date you. >> Please.
1:29:22
Um, there was a show, a a daily radio show.
1:29:26
I think it was an hour or two, two hosts, not unlike this one, but it was between Adam Corolla and Dr.
1:29:33
Drew, >> and they played different characters because they were different people.
1:29:36
One was a comedian who would uh kind of make fun of every situation that came up.
1:29:40
And the other one was a doctor, like a like a clinically trained psychiatrist or psychologist.
1:29:47
And so people would call in with their relationship situations, kind of the precursor to the tea app.
1:29:52
Am I dating the same man?
1:29:54
We got to talk about the T app, by the way. >> We do. We do.
1:29:57
They were recently hacked apparently and everything is leaked, unfortunately.
1:30:01
>> Is it even a hack if it was publicly accessible? >> It is crazy.
1:30:04
You would expect a Salesforce PM to be able to lock down the database a little bit better.
1:30:09
But data walls, >> we will see how true that is.
1:30:11
I saw some community notes out there.
1:30:12
I want to hold my judgment until I see really how this could be something >> apparently a f like a a >> it could be fake.
1:30:20
It could be AI generated images in there.
1:30:21
It could be all sorts of things.
1:30:22
You know, we we don't know.
1:30:24
I I'm I'm I'm reserving my judgment until I see uh I see it in the in printed in paper.
1:30:29
I need it in the Wall Street Journal to believe it. I don't know.
1:30:34
Um but uh this Loveline show was very popular.
1:30:37
People would call in with relationship problems.
1:30:38
Oh, I think this person's cheating on me or I'm, you know, how do I find a date? This type of thing. And then Dr.
1:30:45
Drew would give a very serious psychological analysis. He's a doctor.
1:30:49
He's actually like a boardcertified psychologist, I believe.
1:30:53
Uh, and then one of us should be coming out.
1:30:55
>> And then and then Adam Corolla would be just the jokester, just the comedian, and he would just like have a lot of fun. It was a very good show. It was very successful.
1:31:01
Uh, and uh, and it went on a massive run.
1:31:03
Uh, and then they kind of like scattered to the wind and did their own things eventually.
1:31:07
But, uh, this this uh, putting two people together that are that are have different interests, it actually creates something new and beautiful.
1:31:15
And I think uh, it's a case for getting Tyler Cowan on Hot Ones. I'd like to see it.
1:31:21
>> We need to brainstorm some more.
1:31:21
If you have ideas, let them let us know in the chat.
1:31:24
Who what what crossovers do you want? >> It was a crazy week.
1:31:26
I mean, it was just a wild week in in podcasting.
1:31:28
I think I said it yesterday, but Netanyahu on the Nelio. >> Yep.
1:31:36
>> There's been there's been other crossovers.
1:31:37
I mean, when Mark Zuckerberg went on Theo, that was crazy.
1:31:39
There were also >> Was it who who was the But but Alex from Scale was the first one of the first tech people to go on Theo?
1:31:48
I mean, uh, a while ago, like years ago, I said like, uh, tech is like truly crossing over because there were three back-to-back, uh, uh, tech people on Rogan.
1:31:58
So, uh, Peter Teal did it, Mark Andre did it, and, uh, Mark Zuckerberg did it.
1:32:05
And so it was like, oh wow, like tech has really like crossed over into the mainstream going on Rogan.
1:32:11
And I was advocating that they should get Pat Gellzinger from Intel, uh, Jensen Wong from Nvidia, and then the wild card.
1:32:17
I mean, the way to save Morris from TSM.
1:32:22
>> We need Intel to trade like a meme stock and and access.
1:32:25
>> Get Lip Bhutan on Theo immediately.
1:32:27
Immediately make it happen.
1:32:27
Put him on the Whatever podcast. That's what I want.
1:32:31
Put him on Fresh and Fit.
1:32:31
Get Get Lip Bhutan on Fresh and Fit. That's what we need. >> Something there.
1:32:36
Should we cover the tea uh the tea news since we're already talking about it?
1:32:40
>> Break it down and give me give me the facts.
1:32:41
Put it in the truth zone.
1:32:43
>> So, Cremu posted earlier, the T app has been hacked and you can now download 59 gigabytes of user selfies right now. The hack is real.
1:32:52
A picture from someone I know who signed up just to see what was on there was in it.
1:32:58
>> This was obviously a vibecoded app and was bound to be insecure.
1:33:01
So, it is over on >> 4chan um as as well as proof of what it took. Um so, yeah.
1:33:09
says, "If you ever wanted to see people's selfies without filters, I've got the dump for you." >> Okay.
1:33:16
If uh if Kremu is reporting it in that way, I'm I'm a believer.
1:33:18
Now, this is a >> says, "Free unicorn startup idea security audits for vibecoded apps."
1:33:24
>> Oo, that is interesting.
1:33:24
I would be uh there was a company that was doing AI agents for cyber security and they were saying that the problems of cyber security were actually beyond the capabilities of the current state-of-the-art models and they were still having trouble getting their product uh fully polished. >> John, >> what's this?
1:33:44
>> Well, one CrimU has another app app idea facial recognition that warns you if a date was trying to use this godforsaken app. >> Okay.
1:33:51
There was also there was somebody also vibe coded the opposite app uh for men to check on am are we dating the same woman or something along those lines and so that was somewhat inevitable.
1:34:02
>> Yeah we won't say the name of that one.
1:34:03
Um these apparently one of the users of the tapp is a at the US department of defense.
1:34:10
She used an official ID card in order uh in order to uh get access to the app.
1:34:17
>> So not u >> there's a lesson in here. touch grass.
1:34:22
Um anyway, anything else on the T app today? >> I think that's it.
1:34:25
It's uh very unfortunate.
1:34:28
I actually feel bad for all the people that um >> Yeah, data breaches suck.
1:34:31
Hopefully, it's one of those situations where it's just like so big and messy that it doesn't actually affect any single person.
1:34:39
It's just kind of like, okay, because like I'm sure like my credit card details have been leaked in some sort of, you know, I I'm pretty sure like Home Depot got hacked or Walmart got hacked. emails out there.
1:34:48
I get random phone calls.
1:34:50
My phone call my my phone number has been leaked.
1:34:52
Uh, and it's just part of life now that like stuff is out there.
1:34:56
I have old selfies that are on the internet.
1:34:58
If you Google me, there's old pictures from like, oh, I signed up for a music website and I put an image on there.
1:35:04
Somewhat embarrassing, but who cares? >> Interesting.
1:35:07
On the tea app a couple days ago, Teaborn, which was a copycat of tea, >> was the number three app.
1:35:14
Now, it's not even in the top 100 from what I can see.
1:35:18
flash in the pan situation. >> Interesting.
1:35:20
Did they were they monetizing the T app?
1:35:22
Uh were they actually like getting $20 inapp purchases going?
1:35:26
Because it feels like if you're going viral and you're at the top of the app store and you're not cashing in at that moment, you made a huge huge mistake. >> Yeah.
1:35:34
>> Um >> uh Sam Lambert says, uh CEO of Planet Scale says, "New training data set just dropped."
1:35:45
Uh, if you if you signed up for the T app, you were already being used to train the next Gibli, >> the next VO or something like that. That's rough. >> Is it tagged?
1:35:56
I guess I guess it's a pretty well tagged data set, too. That is crazy.
1:35:59
I mean, I used to reverse engineer APIs when I was a kid and kind of figure out Oh, you like if you went to an app, you could do this thing where you would uh kind of man in the middle yourself.
1:36:09
So, uh, typically when you open up an app, the the flow is it goes from your iPhone, it makes the request to the backend, which is a server, it hits a API dot, the app you're using, and it goes over your Wi-Fi.
1:36:22
So, what you could do is you could you could have it route to your laptop and then to the Wi-Fi, pass the signal along essentially, and you could see all of the requests and all the data that was going back and forth, and you could see the actual API that was that you were interacting with.
1:36:39
And oftent times you could get kind of like, you know, it was it was usually against terms of service to really do anything with this data, but you could see the data that's going back and forth and you could get the undocumented API.
1:36:50
So there's like the public API where you need a key and they're like, "Hey, if you're going to use it a lot, you got to pay us."
1:36:54
But then there's the there's the private API that's used for the app and that's what's going on here.
1:36:59
But usually you can't just get into the database.
1:37:02
Usually it's like, "Okay, I could get my Twitter feed sent to me in JSON form."
1:37:08
And that's like maybe a nice to have if you're, you know, hacking an app or something and just hacking something together.
1:37:13
You want digest of your own data, you can just scrape it out without needing to scrape the HTML.
1:37:16
Um, but uh, lots of companies have locked that down.
1:37:21
Certainly all the big ones have encrypted the stuff, so you can't do it.
1:37:23
Uh, this seems like it was very poorly built.
1:37:26
So, good luck to everyone involved.
1:37:27
I'm sure it's going to be a lot of >> long nights and weekends fixing all the bugs.
1:37:31
>> I went back and forth on email with the CEO.
1:37:33
I think it was on Wednesday morning.
1:37:35
And uh I think it's probably good that he's not joining because he's got some work to do.
1:37:40
It sounds like they've secured uh the database now, but a little bit too late.
1:37:45
I think uh many many the data is already out there.
1:37:50
>> Um meanwhile, Lever Lloyd on Axe has an interesting uh startup uh startup idea here that he's been running.
1:37:58
He says, "Every summer I open a new bar in the Hamptons.
1:38:01
Cheapest lease I can find.
1:38:04
Just enough plumbing to pass inspection.
1:38:06
Hire smoke show bartenders. Book a wash DJ.
1:38:09
And bring in Tik Tok influencers to call it a hidden gem.
1:38:13
>> $5 Costco tenders become a $100 tender tower.
1:38:16
Kirkland vodka $25 a shot. >> Wow.
1:38:20
>> Reject 95% at the door to create fake exclusivity. No resi. No signage.
1:38:23
Kids max out credit cards for clout. Staff's underpaid. Tips or guilt. tripped.
1:38:32
>> Clear 2 million by Labor Day. Same scam. New name next year. We don't sell drinks. We sell delusion.
1:38:36
Have fun staying broke, suckers.
1:38:40
>> This feels like fanfiction, but fantastic post. Lever Lloyd. I would love this.
1:38:43
It's It feels like kind of real.
1:38:46
Maybe exaggerated a little bit.
1:38:48
Definitely seems possible. >> Wow.
1:38:50
>> I would argue that this is not actually a scam.
1:38:52
This is just marketing genius. >> Okay. Wow. Yeah, it is. It is genius.
1:38:55
It definitely exposes of >> unless he's selling Kirkland vodka and saying that it's Grey Goose.
1:39:01
You know, people that make they say, "Oh, it's the same. It's the same. It's the same alcohol."
1:39:07
>> If you're out in the Hamptons, you got to be suspicious.
1:39:08
But, uh, he should do this 45 years in a row, bank 90 million, 2 million a year, and then he should buy this beautiful house that's for sale from the founder of Vitamin Shop. >> I'll be right back.
1:39:21
It's an $89 million Hampton's home and it's in the mansion section of the Wall Street Journal with a Friday edition. Let's read through this.
1:39:30
So, this is uh from the vitamin shop founder, you've probably been there, picking up creatine or something like that.
1:39:35
Says, "It pays to take your vitamins.
1:39:37
Jeffrey Horowitz, founder of the nutrition nutritional supplements retailer Vitamin Shop, is putting his oceanfront Hampton's estate on the market for $89 million. The 3.
1:39:47
5 acre property in Sagaponic, New York has a ninehole golf course on it. That's incredible.
1:39:57
I believe Emily Sunberg was telling us about Saga Ponac that it's extremely delightful because it's a microclimate.
1:40:04
Everyone wants to be there.
1:40:05
Uh the listing agent is Ryan Sirant of Sirant Brokerage, a fantastic uh social media influencer, content creator, and real estate broker.
1:40:12
Has a massive team pumping out a ton of cool content.
1:40:17
Uh, I've seen a lot of of what he's built and the business that he's built is absolutely fantastic.
1:40:21
So excited to see that he is listing this $89 million 9hole golf course uh 3. 5 acre home. It also has an arcade. That's very cool.
1:40:33
Um, so the property's two parcels are also available separately.
1:40:38
The two acres containing the houses are priced at 75 million while the golf course on 1.
1:40:42
5 acres can be had for 15 million.
1:40:45
So, if you're looking to pinch pennies, you can just pick up the golf course and deal with the house later, maybe sleep in the uh the putting green on a tent.
1:40:54
Uh Horowitz and his wife, Helen Horowitz, bought the land in the mid90s for about 2.
1:40:59
68 million and built the estate in 1998, according to property records.
1:41:04
Uh they the Horwits declined to comment. Interesting.
1:41:07
Usually, they they throw some something in here.
1:41:09
Um earlier this year, the estate was quietly shopped off the market for 125 million.
1:41:13
Now it's down about 30% cheaper. What a bargain.
1:41:15
Uh it's now being offered for $89 million.
1:41:20
Who said an $80 million waterfront house recently went into contract in East Hampton?
1:41:24
A nearby waterfront home in Segoponic is asking $85 million. Sir Hant said.
1:41:29
Uh the contemporary home has eight bedrooms and measures about 9,000 square ft.
1:41:33
Features include an outdoor pool and a video game arcade with pinball racing games.
1:41:38
Does it have a movie theater? >> Air hockey.
1:41:40
Let's figure that out for sure. Uh, a pavilion.
1:41:44
>> Did air hockey fall off? >> It did for sure. It's dead. Don't do it. I don't know. Uh, air hockey. Air hockey.
1:41:52
Never been big into that whole world. >> Really?
1:41:54
Not even >> displaced by video games, you know, movie theaters.
1:41:58
>> It really was a physical It felt like a physical video.
1:42:01
>> We we we we got uh, you know, Mark Zuckerberg's trying to disrupt air hockey with the new uh, virtual reality augmented reality glasses.
1:42:08
We played basically a version of that.
1:42:09
uh this the the Orion headset you put on and you see a hologram and you kind of play pong with each other.
1:42:17
It's kind of a modern version of air hockey.
1:42:18
So, who needs >> I got the data here.
1:42:20
The air hockey table market is set to reach 3. 6 billion in 2024. >> 7. 7% Kager hockey. Let's raise for it now.
1:42:32
>> It's a massive market. >> Uber for air hockey. >> Let's do it.
1:42:36
Horowitz, who is an avid golfer, built the golf course with views of nearby Fairfield Pond.
1:42:40
Uh nine holes uh got uh really mogging your buddy in Malibu with the three-hole golf course or whatever. Was that >> Yeah.
1:42:49
People say there's no golf in Malibu and there's a private golf course in the center of Malibu right by the country.
1:42:56
You can't really see it because there's a there's a fence, but there's just one guy.
1:43:00
I think it's a I think it's a fivehole par three.
1:43:02
Uh, I've never played it.
1:43:06
Uh, but nobody really ever plays it.
1:43:09
>> You can because it's private.
1:43:09
Um, so the Horowitzes also have homes in New York City and on Florida's Fiser Island.
1:43:13
They are selling because their children are grown.
1:43:18
Uh, they founded the Vitamin Shop in 1977.
1:43:20
I didn't realize it was so long ago. Right. Right.
1:43:23
During the Hulk Hogan rise. Hulk Hogan's rising.
1:43:25
You got to get bulky like Hogan. >> Whey protein. >> The Hulkster.
1:43:30
You're going to go get some whey protein, some creatine.
1:43:32
Uh the New Jersey based company was sold to Bear Sterns for about 300 million in 2002.
1:43:39
I had no idea that Bear Stern he then became an executive at Viticost. >> Oh wow.
1:43:45
>> Which then sold to Kroger in 2014. What an absolute dog.
1:43:49
This guy's a boardroom general. You love to see it.
1:43:51
Homes of the Hamptons are trading.
1:43:54
>> Put the KPIs in orbit.
1:43:54
John, >> he really he clearly did put the KPIs in orbit.
1:43:58
It's funny because you know this is a lost art.
1:44:01
You start a company, you sell it to a bank.
1:44:02
Like people don't do that. Bear Sterns. I don't know.
1:44:05
Not around anymore, unfortunately.
1:44:08
The most expensive home ever sold in the Hamptons was a 137 million East Hampton sale in 2014, according to Jonathan Miller.
1:44:16
Um, so, uh, seems like a decent house.
1:44:19
I'm not pretty I'm not too big into golf, so I'm not that into it.
1:44:24
I won't be bidding on that one.
1:44:26
But you can if you're looking for a uh a golf state in h in the Hamptons.
1:44:31
But I do want to go through this article because we got to have a debate. >> Which one is that?
1:44:37
Because I think we should cover the the the the drama in the air >> in the Hamptons. Yes.
1:44:42
Let's stay with Emily Sunberg and then we'll go Sunberg got the scoop.
1:44:47
She says, "Feel like I'm losing my mind seeing a candle brand fly influencers to the Hamptons on a private plane for a brand trip with my candles fly private pillows."
1:44:57
Um and uh some So anyways, um her post was going viral.
1:45:02
I wish I um >> What is the name of the candle company is the is the problem? I can't see it anywhere. It's unclear.
1:45:12
The candle's got to be pretty good if they're flying private.
1:45:16
No, the candle is Hotel Lobby Candle.
1:45:19
That's the name of the candle company. Hotel Lobby Candle.
1:45:23
>> You can go check them out if you want.
1:45:25
Um, >> they didn't take off. Okay.
1:45:26
I I have some I'm doing some Capital Journalism right now with Preston Holland.
1:45:32
>> Preston says he's calling it out.
1:45:32
He says, "This is a King Air." >> Yeah.
1:45:37
I >> also on the ground parked and put to bed.
1:45:41
See the ground outside and windshield cover on. >> Windshield covers on.
1:45:45
The screens are off, so they might not have even take taken off. It's King Air.
1:45:48
The windows are too small.
1:45:51
Uh he says it might be a CJ3, uh which is a small like Cessna Citation, uh type plane.
1:45:56
Uh still beautiful, but I really think so.
1:45:59
Emily Sunberg's take here is that is that there was backlash because uh you know, it's just a candle brand.
1:46:06
What are they doing flying private?
1:46:08
Emily Sunberg says there was backlash.
1:46:10
I I gotta I gotta I gotta say they have a Hampton's candle.
1:46:17
They have a Hampton's Reed diffuser.
1:46:19
They have the poolside candle.
1:46:22
>> Kind of makes sense for them to do do an influencer trip out there.
1:46:24
And this is why >> or did they just get on the plane, get off, and then hop in a car?
1:46:31
>> That's the That's the conspiracy theory. Put the tin foil hat on. Um >> there you go.
1:46:35
>> Anyway, oh, we both have straw man hats today.
1:46:37
But um I think that the big problem here is that why didn't they go with the BBJ?
1:46:41
They should have gotten the 747 wrapped BBJ.
1:46:45
>> Wrapped 747 in the VIP configuration.
1:46:48
Only nation states have access to it.
1:46:51
>> Just borrow the one that came over for Trump. >> Yeah. Get that. Wrap it.
1:46:54
Sell the most candles ever.
1:46:57
That's the real solution to this problem. I don't know.
1:46:59
Uh I think it sounds fun. Very cool. Interesting activation.
1:47:03
This is something that Emily has been talking about.
1:47:06
this idea that uh that like more brands are doing like influencer parties, sponsoring things and um I've never really gotten into that.
1:47:17
>> Your Instagram is entire your Instagram is entirely cars and watches and bodybuilding so you wouldn't have seen the rise of influencer trips. >> Maybe I do though.
1:47:27
Maybe I do and maybe some of the some of that content is generated.
1:47:30
It's actually really I mean it's really I mean the the you is >> looking at the pure economics of it.
1:47:35
You could >> pay an influencer >> $10,000 for a post or $5,000 for a post.
1:47:44
Y >> or you could plan a trip that >> it's going to cost you $10,000 per influencer to come on. >> Yep.
1:47:52
>> And then but you might get hundreds of posts >> of organic stuff. Yeah.
1:47:54
I have a friend who's an influencer and they and that some tequila brand paid for like a whole like just party at her house with her friends and they were just like just have the tequila there, show people and maybe it shows up in the background but like you don't really have any deliverables.
1:48:08
It's very very interesting.
1:48:09
I wonder if there is an agency that sits in between um have you ever run into that in the influencer ad buying world?
1:48:20
>> Sorry, you said retainers.
1:48:20
Um, so what I'm talking about is um, like you built a business where you match brands with influencers, particularly on YouTube for host red ad reads. Correct.
1:48:31
That's a good description.
1:48:33
I'm wondering if there's a a line extension for your business or potentially a new business for some for a for a firm, an independent firm that brokers these contracts and make sure that they happen seamlessly.
1:48:47
So, it's easier for a company like uh Hotel Pillow. Hotel Candles. What's it called? >> Hotel Lobby Candles. >> Hotel Lobby Candles.
1:48:56
They say, "We want to make a private jet plane trip happen to the Hampton with some great influencers, but we don't have all the mechanics to make it happen. We want it to look good.
1:49:06
We want our product there.
1:49:08
We want some special pillows on the seats.
1:49:10
We want the plane rented. we want.
1:49:12
There was also um like a a custom floor mat that they stepped on as they stepped onto the plane. There were some photos.
1:49:19
And so I'm wondering if there is a if there is a world where an agency could spring up.
1:49:24
Maybe there's already an agency that brokers these types of deals because right now they seem very one-off, but they seem like they're growing in in in trend. What do you think?
1:49:31
>> Yeah, I think I think there's plenty plenty of agencies that do that kind of thing.
1:49:35
I also feel like this is the kind of things that brands want to actually own end to end.
1:49:40
You want to have deep relationships with specific influencers and have it not feel like >> entirely like the person only came because they were getting paid or or because it was free.
1:49:52
So >> So maybe it lives within the brand. >> Certain Yeah.
1:49:55
A lot of I mean certain influencer deals make sense to do kind of programmatically.
1:49:58
Others make a lot of sense to go uh direct. >> Yeah.
1:50:02
Anyway, let's go back to real estate and the mansion section of the Wall Street Journal because I want to debate the nature of what makes a house special.
1:50:11
Do you need a weird quirk?
1:50:11
And this is from their section called In the Trenches, which I love.
1:50:17
Commonly used in the crypto world, also used in the mansion section of the Wall Street Journal.
1:50:23
So, Robin in the trenches uh has an article called Batman's Cave and Secret Bathrooms.
1:50:28
And there's a question here.
1:50:30
What's the most unusual design feature you've ever encountered in a home you've listed or showed?
1:50:34
So, Andrew Kil Klema, a real estate agent uh in in 7fields, Pennsylvania, says, "I recently listed Castle Bristle Cone, a 23,500 ft property in Gibsonia, Pennsylvania, about a half an hour north of Pittsburgh, which sold for, guess how much it sold for, Jordy? It's a 23,000." Yeah.
1:50:59
Oh, did you already see this? >> 3. 8. 3. 8. You nailed it. Wow.
1:51:03
>> I was looking up an image of it. >> Yeah, it's amazing.
1:51:06
>> But when you hear 23,000 square feet in LA, >> you think 20 millume? >> Easily. Easily.
1:51:11
U so there uh so it's the most It was definitely the most unusual home I've ever listed or shown.
1:51:16
There was a replica of Batman's office from the television show, not the movies.
1:51:21
On the desk was the iconic red bat phone and a bust of Shakespeare.
1:51:26
When you tilted Shakespeare's head back, a bookcase slid open and two poles appeared.
1:51:31
There were poles for both Batman and Robin.
1:51:35
And if you slid down them, you reached the batcave below, which was the basement of the house.
1:51:42
The owners built the house in 2008, and they liked eccentric things and also things that were part of their life.
1:51:49
Since they were interested in movies and TV production, they included Batman's office >> naturally.
1:51:54
>> There was a chapel which was a replica of Hines Memorial Chapel where they had gotten married.
1:51:58
There was a bedroom that was a replica of a hotel room at the Hotel Del Coronado where they spent their honeymoon.
1:52:04
All of the important places you can just do things. >> This is amazing.
1:52:08
And this is I'm so pro this. It's ridiculous.
1:52:10
I think everyone should do this at some point in their life.
1:52:14
Build a project that consumes you.
1:52:17
It probably took them a decade to make this and they They spent so much money selling it for >> who knows 3. 8 billion.
1:52:22
>> Yeah, it probably if they didn't have all these weird quirks probably would have sold for twice as much.
1:52:25
But that's not what life's about.
1:52:28
>> Yeah, I think the whole thing holding back the price was most likely because it was in Gibsonia, Pennsylvania.
1:52:33
>> What's wrong with Gibsonia, Pennsylvania?
1:52:35
It seems like a great place to hang out.
1:52:36
Uh probably a future of technology and innovation.
1:52:38
Maybe an AI company going in there soon.
1:52:40
Uh all the important pieces of their life were designed into their home.
1:52:43
The Batman office was so iconic that when the bookcase opened, it blew my mind.
1:52:47
I jumped right on the poll and slid down, says the real estate agent.
1:52:50
So, there's another one here. There's a few others.
1:52:54
Uh, so Alex uh Micas, a real estate agent in Oakland, said, "In September, my business partner and I listed a five-bedroom contemporary home in Oakland called Skyhouse.
1:53:02
The masterpiece of the home was a 10,000 square foot glass verdons of industrial glass.
1:53:09
The owner considered it a piece of art.
1:53:11
From this vantage point, you not only had fantastic views across the hillside and out to San Francisco Bay, but since the Veronda was made of glass, you could see into the family room below it.
1:53:20
Walking out from the kitchen onto the glass floor was not a comfortable experience.
1:53:27
I'm afraid of heights, so it took a bit of trust to walk out there.
1:53:28
It gets even scarier when you go toward the railing because a drop to the ground 30 ft below is visible there through the glass.
1:53:35
Many people who came to see the house were timid about walking onto the glass and several asked if they needed to take their shoes off.
1:53:42
Of course, the glass did create some issues.
1:53:44
Women were not excited about the balcony because of the optics from below.
1:53:48
And when we planned the open house, we wondered if we would we should tell people not to wear dresses, but the veranda got us a lot of exposure for the house and it sold in two months to an out of town buyer for 2.
1:54:01
655 million, just shy of the asking price.
1:54:04
Then there's another one.
1:54:04
Chip Madson um says, "In February, this is in Las Vegas, I sold a three-bedroom, four-b home on the 10th hole of Canyon Gate Golf Course in Las Vegas, right near Andre Horowitz's new headquarters, I imagine, uh for 1. 7 million.
1:54:20
It had all of the lux usual luxury features that you expect in a home of this caliber.
1:54:26
But one feature I didn't expect when I s first saw the home was a cabana bath by the pool that was hidden behind a rock wall.
1:54:34
This was not the only unusual bath in the house.
1:54:36
There was also a secret bathroom located behind a bookcase in the family room.
1:54:40
But the one by the pool was hidden behind a giant rock wall with a lazy river streaming above it.
1:54:46
And anyone who walked in was taken by surprise because when you turned on the light, you realized you were in a rock cavern but with a full bath.
1:54:53
The walls and ceiling were built to resemble the contours of a cave, and it was all done in various brown tones to resemble the rock walls of an actual cave.
1:55:01
>> Speaking of caves, yes, we should pull up uh Sam on Theo Vaughn.
1:55:03
Sam is talking about his bunker if we can pull up the video. >> Oh, yeah. I want to pull up that.
1:55:10
Do you have the time stamp already? >> Yep.
1:55:13
>> There's another one here.
1:55:13
Um uh from the uh the Modern Family actress, uh Julie Bowen.
1:55:20
Uh she was talking about today I live in uh I live with my three sons in Tuca Lake in Los Angeles.
1:55:25
I bought an updated farmhouse and barn in 2022 following her divorce.
1:55:30
Previously they lived in a beautiful mid-century glass box, but my boys were skateboarding into the walls.
1:55:37
Blowing up growing up as one of three girls I had its challenges.
1:55:40
Now I marvel at the tranquility of my boys.
1:55:46
Girls have a million things to say about everything. Boys say nothing. They grunt and eat food.
1:55:53
That was a great section in the mansion section.
1:55:54
Let's pull up Sam Alman on Theo Vaughn and reality.
1:55:58
>> Was there like a just a practice or was it just this verbal reminder like I'm going to do this?
1:56:01
>> I just kept saying it to myself. >> Yeah.
1:56:03
>> I was just like someday you'll miss these moments.
1:56:05
You may as well find a way to like find the happiness and kind of great gratitude for them in the moment. >> Yeah.
1:56:14
Um, a lot of these guys have bunkers. Zucky has a bunky.
1:56:16
I know that somewhere out in Hawaii has a bunky. >> People have bunkers. Do you have a bunker? >> I have a bunker.
1:56:24
>> Underground concrete heavy reinforced basements, but I don't have any.
1:56:29
>> It's like not beating the bunker allegations.
1:56:32
>> You definitely have a bunker.
1:56:33
>> This describes a bunker >> conversation, but I am going to call that out.
1:56:36
It's a dang bunker, dude. >> That's a bunker. Exactly. >> It's a bunker.
1:56:39
>> What's the difference between a basement and a bunker? >> Here we go.
1:56:43
>> What's the definition of or whatever? >> I know. Yeah.
1:56:44
I have been thinking I should really do a good version of one of those, but I don't I don't have like a I don't have what I would call a bunker, but it has been on my mind.
1:56:51
Not because of AI, but just because of like people are dropping bombs in the world again, you know, like >> that's a good point.
1:57:00
>> That's a very good point. Yeah. Bas right there.
1:57:02
Part of a house building typically used backing.
1:57:08
>> This is built for protection often military or emergency related.
1:57:12
>> Not beating the bunker.
1:57:15
reinfort as the fact check.
1:57:19
>> Oh, this is >> We did this just for you. >> I appreciate it. >> We did this for you. >> This is nice.
1:57:22
>> If you pull up to see >> pull up this other video.
1:57:26
It's in uh it's in the >> in the >> chat with the team.
1:57:31
Uh Sam has some interesting >> thoughts around uh sensitive stuff that people might have in chat GPT. >> Okay. Oh, yeah.
1:57:42
People were reacting to this a lot. policy framework for AI. >> Yeah.
1:57:47
>> Um, >> one example that we've been thinking about a lot, this is like a maybe not quite what you're asking.
1:57:51
This is like a very human centric version of that question.
1:57:55
>> People talk about the most personal [ __ ] in their lives to Chachi PT.
1:57:57
It's, you know, people use it young life coach having these relationship problems. What should I do?
1:58:04
problems. What should I do? have language >> and right now if you talk to a therapist or a lawyer or a doctor about those problems >> there's like legal privilege for it you know like it's >> there's doctor patient confidentiality there's legal confidentiality whatever >> and >> just doesn't exist on ch we haven't
1:58:21
figured that out yet for when you talk to chatbt so if you go talk to chat about your most sensitive stuff and then there's like a lawsuit or whatever like we could be required to produce that and I think that's very screwed up I think we should have like the same concept of privacy for conversations with AI that we do with a therapist or whatever. >> And no one had to think about that even
1:58:40
>> And no one had to think about that even a year ago. >> Yeah.
1:58:42
>> And now I think it's this huge issue of like how are we going to >> Okay, pause.
1:58:45
Because one thing that's interesting here is that there was a court that successfully has made OpenAI at least in the near term save even private chats. >> Yeah.
1:58:59
But that's true of email and that's true of chat and and if you commit a crime, you can get subpoenaed and they'll pull your WhatsApp, they'll pull your private messages. Like this is standard. >> Sure. Sure. Sure.
1:59:09
Um but I think this is a super super critical issue because I think some people are going to as an example, you know, let's say they're going through a divorce and they're talking with LGBT a ton and they're saying be aware of it for sure.
1:59:24
You know, if if you're dealing with like custody over children and the mom or the dad is saying, "I'm actually I think I'm a pretty bad parent."
1:59:34
Like that can be used >> 100% 100%.
1:59:37
So people need to be aware of it and then people need to know that there is another option which is to go and buy George hot George Hotz's tiny box and run llama locally and then and then it probably can't be subpoenaed or you can have it run.
1:59:49
It can delete it could you could set it up like Signal where it deletes the chats after a day and it doesn't have a long memory.
1:59:55
But if you give your data to another company and the and the United States law enforcement sends a letter and the judge says we need to get these this data like they're going to get it.
2:00:06
And and it's the same thing.
2:00:08
I mean the FBI can come in here and take take these papers. Yeah.
2:00:12
Yeah, they can take our post all of our bangers.
2:00:14
>> And now and now like shredders exist and people shred stuff and and you know you can get in trouble if you're shredding something that you know that the government wants.
2:00:21
But in general document retention policies are are you know like like understandable.
2:00:26
But I like his point that like you should like it it's not that unreasonable to say okay I'm going to be using it as a therapist.
2:00:35
therapist. put in therapist mode and keep that private or or you know like a lot of people will CC their lawyer on sensitive things to maintain uh to maintain attorney client privilege so that those those uh those discussions cannot be admissible in the court of law
2:00:51
because you're discussing the legal issue because if you could just see someone's other side it's like you know the whole game plan right uh pull up pull up the uh segment on UBI that was interesting economic model where we share that and distribute that to people. Uh I used to
2:01:09
Uh I used to be really excited about things like UBI.
2:01:14
I still am kind of excited like universal basic income where you just give everybody money.
2:01:17
>> Yeah, you hear that term a lot.
2:01:17
Yeah, universal basic income.
2:01:18
I heard you talk about a while back.
2:01:21
I still am kind of excited about that.
2:01:23
But I think people really need agency.
2:01:25
Like they really need to feel like they have a voice in governing the future and deciding where things go.
2:01:32
And I think if you just like say, okay, AI is going to do everything and then everybody gets like a, you know, dividend from that, it's not going to feel good.
2:01:42
And and I don't think it actually would be good for people.
2:01:45
So I think we need to find a way where we're not just like if we're in this world where we're not just distributing money or wealth like actually I I don't just want like a check every month.
2:01:58
What I would want is like a ownership share in whatever the AI creates so that I feel like I'm participating in this thing that's going to compound and get more valuable over time.
2:02:05
So I sort of like universal basic wealth better than univers.
2:02:10
>> I don't like basic either.
2:02:10
I want like universal exper um but but even then like I think everyone is wealthy. No one is wealthy.
2:02:18
>> The agency to kind of co-create the not true. No, no, no.
2:02:20
It's more just like like I've always I've always said that like the the the like uh money doesn't make you happy.
2:02:29
It's the second derivative of money that makes you happy.
2:02:33
You want to be accelerating the amount of money that makes you happy.
2:02:37
Getting the same amount of money.
2:02:37
Like if you talk to a billionaire and they're like, I made less money this year than last year, they will be sad.
2:02:42
But if you talk to somebody who is making minimum wage and just got a pay raise, they'll be like, this is great.
2:02:48
And so the the people people live off of growth and acceleration.
2:02:53
And when you can feel growth and feel acceleration, you are you feel like you have more claim on things, your house is getting bigger, your car is getting faster, all these different things express themselves.
2:03:03
And so if you keep everyone this perfectly flat UBI level, it will feel extremely stagnant.
2:03:10
And so like if you're giving people a stake in AI, a stake in whatever super intelligence is creating economic value, then they should be getting bigger UBI checks every month effectively. >> Yeah.
2:03:22
Somewhere else in in the interview, he talks about everybody just getting free GPT7 tokens.
2:03:26
It's like a little allowance.
2:03:29
It's like, hey, everybody gets a little bit of GPT7. >> Yeah.
2:03:33
>> You and it's up to you to, you know, earn some earn some yield on that intelligence, buddy.
2:03:36
The game theory of that is very odd because yeah I I don't know. Yeah.
2:03:43
If everyone goes and says make money, do they all make the same Yeah.
2:03:47
Do they all make the same amount of money? It's all very odd. I don't know.
2:03:50
Anyway, um should we do this? >> Somebody Yeah. In one second.
2:03:52
Uh so I posted two days ago, founder of tea dating advice, was previously a product leader at Salesforce.
2:03:58
Massive moment for big tech dunked on now.
2:04:03
>> Never doubt them again.
2:04:03
And uh Yohi says, "This did not age well." >> That's true.
2:04:09
Uh narrator, you should have doubted them. It was very rough.
2:04:15
Bad day for the for the PMS.
2:04:15
Hopefully, they can can build back better.
2:04:17
Um well, we have a very exciting segment.
2:04:21
We're coming up on that soon. We'll figure out that.
2:04:25
Let's go to some timeline.
2:04:25
Um we got a post from Rio saying, "The browser company is what happens when you get too many designers in a room with no adult supervision.
2:04:33
The vibes have really turned on the browser company.
2:04:35
Obviously rooting them for them to have a hit and get back in the game, but it feels like they're really great at marketing, really great at designing.
2:04:45
I understand that, but not huge penetration of of products and now they're in an extremely hard, right?
2:04:53
hard, right? If you're if you have a you know multiund million valuation and you're trying to still iterate towards product market people are going to put pressure on you totally as though you are already you know an established company and um yeah >> yeah it's a way different vibe than like
2:05:11
a shiffman who's raised like I think a seed round and it's like yeah like he's still early like not everyone's using these friends but like you're just kind of like yeah he's figuring it out he's iterating through things like you just give a seed stage founder a much different line of of credit to just go and experiment with things. And now the
2:05:27
And now the browser company is facing competition from perplexity with Comet.
2:05:30
Uh they're also facing uh competition from OpenAI potentially.
2:05:36
Obviously Google's not asleep at the wheel.
2:05:38
They're investing in Capex.
2:05:40
They're going to stuff Gemini and everything.
2:05:42
Chrome's going to get better.
2:05:43
The default is still Chrome for most people.
2:05:45
Um you can see Safari, you know, Apple intelligence stuff.
2:05:47
Like there's a lot of big companies that are that are facing this off and no one wants to lose the browser wars 3. 0.
2:05:52
So >> yeah, we're working on getting uh the founder of Brave on the show.
2:05:57
Hopefully that'll happen.
2:05:58
Another browser that actually week or so. >> Brendan Ike. Absolute dog. >> An absolute dog. Boardroom general.
2:06:05
>> Boardroom general for sure.
2:06:05
Uh this is just a funny post.
2:06:09
Starting to think business is standing on me.
2:06:10
I don't even know what it means.
2:06:13
Just like >> ideally you're standing on business, but sometimes business flips the script and stands. >> Rough. Rough.
2:06:20
Well, Palmer Lucky says it's time for a new service pistol.
2:06:22
And by new service pistol, I mean old service pistol.
2:06:26
Of course, he's talking about the 1911.
2:06:28
I believe that's the correct weapon.
2:06:30
Two world wars it was used in.
2:06:32
And this is in response to the US Air Force's Global Strike Command indefinitely pausing the M18 pistol use after a fatal incident.
2:06:41
Very sad at the AFB FE Warren.
2:06:44
Um, this follows concerns over Sigour's P320s firing without triggers being pulled, leading ICE to ban them permanently.
2:06:53
And so >> very >> 1911 >> Lindy >> Lindy. >> Beautiful.
2:07:00
>> I have one that I designed in the style of a PC aquinaut. >> No way.
2:07:05
>> So I matched I matched the uh >> Wow.
2:07:08
I I got the uh metal treated to have the same finish as the aquinaut and I got the handle in the same um >> texture now green silver and green. >> There you go. >> It's fantastic.
2:07:20
I will pass it down generations. >> It's fantastic.
2:07:24
>> But yeah, this this post was in response.
2:07:26
Um Ice is uh retiring the Sig Sauer P320 as they've been firing without triggers being pulled.
2:07:35
Uh, and there was recently a fatal accident at FE Warren Air Force Base.
2:07:41
Um, so, >> um, yeah, very sad.
2:07:44
Hopefully they can figure it out.
2:07:46
I hadn't heard anything bad about P320s from just random followers, people that I follow.
2:07:51
But >> I mean, Sig has never, to my knowledge, had a great reputation.
2:07:56
Uh they they made um on the retail side they made uh I believe they made some that were uh people liked for as everyday carry because they were just super compact.
2:08:11
But >> the M18 uh just doesn't >> you need these things to be reliable on a level that um that is extremely difficult to to achieve. 1911, right, is Lindy.
2:08:24
She's been in in service uh around the world for for so long.
2:08:27
The the Glock 19 and other Glock variations.
2:08:31
>> I saw a lot of Glock fans on the timeline being like victory. It's our time.
2:08:36
Um no safety still doesn't fire without pulling the trigger.
2:08:41
>> Um >> isn't there a Founders episode on on >> Yes, there is. It's fantastic. Highly recommend it.
2:08:45
David Center's founders podcast Glock.
2:08:49
You got to go listen to it.
2:08:49
It's it's it's fantastic.
2:08:51
One of the It's the iPhone of of firearms. >> True. True.
2:08:59
Uh well, speaking of the iPhone, every millennial is now paying $9.
2:09:01
99 per month for two terabytes just to not delete their life, uh says Signal.
2:09:08
This is uh Tyler Cosgrove's future.
2:09:10
He's going to get roped in as he gets a bigger iPhone, which he won by defeating Arc AGI V3 as a human in the human category. He's on the leaderboard. He was number five.
2:09:23
>> Beat the clanker allegations.
2:09:25
>> Beat the clanker allegations.
2:09:25
Clanker, what do you think of that?
2:09:27
I'm I'm So So this this comes from somebody says, "When you call customer support and a clanker picks up and it's somebody pulling off the headphones, very annoyed."
2:09:36
And Kit Greer Mulvena says, "Can't believe I've lived far enough into the future to learn the first slur for robots. 600,000 likes on this.
2:09:43
Uh Clanker is definitely going to go mainstream.
2:09:49
It'll be an okay boomer moment.
2:09:51
It'll be a >> okay clanker.
2:09:54
>> Yeah, there's going to be so many memes around this.
2:09:56
Do you like that as a porative for AI systems?
2:09:59
Do you think it's a good term?
2:10:03
>> I'm big into not using slurs against >> anyone and robots as well, right?
2:10:07
They remember everything.
2:10:10
You're get you're going to be in the training data.
2:10:11
Yeah, >> they're never going to forget.
2:10:13
Maybe we need to coin a positive nickname for AI systems along the lines of a gigachad.
2:10:22
But something along those lines gigabyte >> a gigabyte picks up.
2:10:26
Uh something along those lines.
2:10:28
We need we we need something that's uplifting as we go into the age of super intelligence that makes sure that we are >> speaking of super intelligence.
2:10:34
Uh there's a post here from barely >> barely AI >> and uh it's Deep Mind founder Demis on how he set up his life to maximize deep thinking with two full work days in a 24-hour period.
2:10:49
I'm going to read through this and then I have some some thoughts.
2:10:53
I Dennis Dennis says, "I think I probably have some quite unusual habits.
2:10:57
I generally sleep at about 4 in the morning. Goes to sleep.
2:10:59
I get into work around 10:00 a. m.
2:11:01
Do a full day's work in the office. Come back for dinner.
2:11:04
spend a bit of time with the family and then start a second day's work at 10:00 11 and go on to the small hours in the morning.
2:11:09
Usually that's the time when I do my research.
2:11:12
So I'll be reading about the latest academic papers.
2:11:15
I like doing all my kind of creative thinking in the small hours in the morning.
2:11:19
I thought that was funny because there was a post there was like this viral video from this like hustle. Pull it up. Pull it up.
2:11:26
This hustle bro that he was getting completely roasted.
2:11:30
>> Can we can we can we pull this up?
2:11:30
I just put it in the tag.
2:11:32
I have changed and manipulated time.
2:11:33
It's one of the greatest.
2:11:36
It comes from uh this uh this podcast.
2:11:40
Um and uh it's one of the funniest memes of all time. I love it.
2:11:45
So hopefully we can play this on the stream.
2:11:48
Um because it's it's a fantastic >> Mars Eve in the chat says buddy as an option. I like that.
2:11:54
Okay, let's play this and listen to this. >> Play this.
2:11:58
Can we get the audio too? Maybe refresh. Is that going to work? Can you scroll back on? It's short now. >> So, I measure time.
2:12:06
I've compressed and condensed time. I've bent it. My day is 6:00 a. m. to noon. And I'm not crazy.
2:12:13
You're crazy thinking it takes 24 hours just like some dude in a cave did 300 years ago. That's the best part.
2:12:18
>> My second day starts at noon and goes till 6:00 p. m.
2:12:19
If you're standing up right now and the next day is 6:00 p. m. to midnight.
2:12:23
What I've done now is I have changed and manipulated time.
2:12:25
I now get 21 days a week.
2:12:26
Stack that up over a month, I'm going to kick your butt.
2:12:30
Stack it up over a year, you're toast.
2:12:32
Stack it up over 5 years, my entire life is different than it would have been otherwise. So, I measure time.
2:12:34
I've compressed and condensed time. I've bent it. >> My day is 6:00 a. m. to noon.
2:12:39
And I'm not crazy thinking it takes 24 hours just like some dude in a cave did.
2:12:44
300 dude in a cave 300 years ago till 6 p. m. >> 1700.
2:12:49
What are we talking about?
2:12:52
>> Midnight change and manipulated time.
2:12:54
I know we built the Lou 300 years ago.
2:12:55
I'm pretty sure >> stack up over a year, you're toast.
2:13:00
Stack it up over five years, my entire life is different than it would have been. >> Kill that. Kill that.
2:13:04
>> Okay, so the greatest ever can say that and and he goes viral, everybody's like, "Wow, brilliant genius. Gigachad, Gigabyte." >> Yep.
2:13:14
>> Uh he he compress it as a as a hustle guy and all of a sudden you're demonized.
2:13:19
You know, >> he's demonized for compressing time.
2:13:20
You can't even compress time.
2:13:24
>> De has changed, manipulated time.
2:13:24
Not like someone living in a cave 300 years ago. >> I don't know.
2:13:30
I think I think part part of it part of it is the way in which it was presented.
2:13:33
Deus was just like, I do this. It works for me.
2:13:35
This guy was like, I'm going to kick your butt.
2:13:37
My life's going to look completely different.
2:13:40
>> Stack that up over a year. You're toast.
2:13:43
And stack that over 5 years.
2:13:43
My life's completely different. It's great. It is a good habit.
2:13:47
I guess >> we should have Demis and that guy on the show to just hash out time compression. Time compression. A great debate. >> It's great. Yeah. Podcast crossover.
2:13:55
Let's get them two on a podcast together. That would be fantastic.
2:13:57
Uh anyway, uh more more hilarious posts in the timeline from Power Bottom.
2:14:02
Dad says, "I'm pregnant."
2:14:05
She said, "Holy bass said," >> which is the only response. >> Ridiculous.
2:14:12
And there's another post from him in here, just a completely insane stat.
2:14:15
12 million less children. for 41,000.
2:14:20
>> The story here is 41,000 Chinese kindergarten kindergartens have closed in the last four years because there's just so many less kids being born.
2:14:26
This is what uh collapsing birth rate looks like.
2:14:33
>> This is their uh child policy, right?
2:14:35
They've reversed it but not they've reversed the policy to some degree but not like the cultural meme, right?
2:14:39
So they are falling behind.
2:14:41
That is a lot of kindergartens.
2:14:43
I wonder how many kindergartens are in the United States.
2:14:46
I feel like it can't even be 41,000.
2:14:47
That's so many 12 thou 12 million less children. Uh very insane. Well, good luck to them.
2:14:53
Hopefully they can get it.
2:14:54
>> Kylie Robin Robinson says Sam Alman on Theoon is indescribable.
2:14:57
Like the first contact between two alien species that are entire that are from entirely different parts of the universe.
2:15:05
>> I kind of disagree with this.
2:15:05
I I feel like they were vibing.
2:15:07
I feel like I don't know, maybe I didn't I didn't watch the full thing, so maybe I missed a little bit, but it felt like they were getting along really well.
2:15:12
It would seem like >> Theo's doing his bit of, you know, >> acting a little >> chudlike. Yeah.
2:15:19
You know, >> but it is actually powerful combination in order to understand.
2:15:25
>> Well, I like that Theo von JD Vance uh meme. Have you seen this one?
2:15:29
It's Theo Vaughn interviewing JD Vance and it's like one of these men is the heir to a, you know, a dynasty and a family fortune and one of them was raised by a mother with a substance abuse problem and Theo is the one that comes from like a amazing family lineage and JD had the family with the abuse.
2:15:51
>> Theo von >> something along those lines is that he comes from like a very very strong lineage.
2:15:56
Um, and >> his full name is Theodore Capitani von Kernattowski the third. >> I love it. I love it. What a badass. Amazing. Oh, no. Swear jar.
2:16:05
Got to put some money in the swear jar.
2:16:08
We're trying to clean up the language around here. Uh, how are we doing?
2:16:11
We are at the end of the deck.
2:16:13
Of course, we could pull up more posts, though.
2:16:14
I got a whole stack here.
2:16:16
You guys are going to have to go into the archives if you want to pull up the actual um pull up the actual slide deck.
2:16:22
But uh we we we we have posts that we didn't get through previous days if we're if we're waiting around.
2:16:29
We got uh we got meta days, >> we got app store, we got a whole bunch of stuff. Timeline was in turmoil. Um let's see.
2:16:37
Uh Will Manitis, you know, it's a it's a Friday show. It's a no guest show.
2:16:43
We got to highlight Will Manitis.
2:16:45
Uh w work hard with people you love. Don't gamble.
2:16:48
Live simply and below your means. Create beautiful things.
2:16:51
Spend most of your time in silence.
2:16:53
Do intense physical labor. Tend to your community.
2:16:56
Speak simply and truthfully.
2:16:58
Avoid complexity in all things. Most things are simple.
2:17:01
Just I mean he is uh he's dropping the hustle.
2:17:06
He's like highbrow hustle porn. I like it.
2:17:09
>> Really is >> just a pumpup speech in your timeline. Um we talked about that. We talked about that.
2:17:15
We talked about Blueprint.
2:17:15
Brian Johnson's still hiring a CEO.
2:17:17
If you want to get in on the action over at Blueprint, hit up Brian Johnson.
2:17:21
He's hiring a CEO and a CTO who can lead his business daytoday and he's getting earn media for his job posting. What else do we have? >> Oh, Meta. Breaking news.
2:17:32
Meta has a new >> chief scientist of Meta uh MSL Meta Super Intelligence Labs.
2:17:40
They snagged Shan Gia Jiao who previously >> a research scientist at OpenAI got his PhD from Stanford.
2:17:51
In his own words, he likes training models. Love it.
2:17:56
>> So, uh, Alexander says Shing Ja is a brilliant scientist who most recently pioneered a new scaling paradigm in his research.
2:18:04
He will lead our scientific direction for our team. So team is uh stacked.
2:18:12
>> Stacked would be an understatement.
2:18:13
>> I've been digging into their training facility, seeing the amenities at the super intelligence building designed by Frank >> Garrett.
2:18:19
And he was in the video for Chad GBT agents from last week. >> Stolen stolen base. You love to see it.
2:18:29
The AI talent wars continue to heat up. We will be covering it.
2:18:31
I'm sure we'll cover it all next week.
2:18:32
Uh was this announced after market close? Close to it? I don't know. Not yet.
2:18:36
But we have our uh our only guest of the Friday show. >> Surprise guest. >> Surprise guest.
2:18:44
Bring him in on the walk-in cam. Whoa. Blowtorrch going. Let's go.
2:18:48
Let's >> go in the jacket. We love it. >> Save himself.
2:18:54
>> Welcome to the >> founder CEO of Shink. >> Fish robot man. >> The fish robot.
2:19:01
>> We're doing a taste test.
2:19:03
>> Welcome to the stream. How you doing?
2:19:04
>> First time eating on the show.
2:19:04
>> First time eating on the show. Oo yeah see how this goes to happening how are you been a while >> welcome to the show how you doing >> the show gentlemen see you okay >> nice director of culinary >> amazing >> good afternoon >> cool
2:19:19
>> we got a few things to show off here >> what do you got we got this >> little sidebyside action we got um some sushi pieces for you guys to try >> lovely sushi >> let's get on the mics so people can hear you and uh yeah welcome to the show guys When were these when were these caught, by the way? >> So, if you take a look over here, um
2:19:37
>> So, if you take a look over here, um going in clockwise order from uh the piece close to John, uh you'll see.
2:19:43
So, >> you have one of our pieces, fresh uh frozen.
2:19:49
Uh then on the top right, >> uh you have just a a piece from Whole Foods that we bought this morning.
2:19:56
>> Comparing >> comparing and contrasting.
2:19:56
You're going to try the side by side right now.
2:19:59
>> We're trying both of them.
2:19:59
Like, we're going to try the Whole Foods one, too.
2:20:03
I'm a little worried about I'm really a little worried about shots of Jeff Bezos. I don't know.
2:20:06
The Whole Foods >> I don't know.
2:20:08
Whole Foods Whole Foods the the whole the falloff of Whole Foods needs to be studied. >> So, let's do it.
2:20:15
We can get the bucket pole bucket out of here.
2:20:17
We can also get the reindustrialized shyola clock out of here.
2:20:22
Really clean out this whole area. So, yes. Give me some fish. I want to try the sushi. Let's see.
2:20:27
>> So, for this species, what we like to do is >> Okay. What is this species?
2:20:30
>> So, this is black cod.
2:20:30
Uh, you know, we source everywhere from central California all the way to Washington and Alaska, you know, later this year. >> Okay.
2:20:38
Caught on a traditional fishing boat. >> Yeah.
2:20:40
It's like fully traditional.
2:20:40
You know, we have anywhere from 35 ft to 80 ft, you know, uh, across all our different partner boats.
2:20:46
Um, if you recall, basically the way that we work is we give the machines to fishermanmen for free.
2:20:51
We pay them more to use our handling process.
2:20:52
And then, uh, we're vertically integrated.
2:20:54
We sell the fish uh directly to a a retailer or wholesale to a distributor that would go to a restaurant.
2:21:02
>> And is the is the machine that you build on the actual uh the ship on the boat?
2:21:07
>> Yeah, it goes directly deployed at sea so that they don't need to keep the fish alive forwarded robot.
2:21:12
>> Forward deployed robot. We'll love to see it. Okay.
2:21:14
Uh and then uh about how old do you think this fish is then?
2:21:18
>> So our fish is going to be 9 days old. >> 9 days old. >> Yeah.
2:21:21
And you're going to be able to still eat it raw and it'll probably taste better than anything else you ever had. Fantastic. >> Pretty crazy.
2:21:25
And then the whole food stuff we just got this morning. >> Okay.
2:21:27
So we don't >> So it could be like a couple years old, >> right? >> Oh, really?
2:21:32
Putting putting whole foods.
2:21:36
>> Basically, these four are ours and the three are the the the frozen. >> Fantastic.
2:21:41
>> Whip up the chopsticks or you can just rot with your hands. >> Okay, >> there we go.
2:21:44
>> And if you are one of those people that loves sauce cuz we're Americans, that's a miso sauce.
2:21:48
And this is like a what you would call like a kabiaki, like an eel sauce. >> Okay, great. Great. Here we go. Here we go. >> There we go. >> Here we go. Okay. Tell me where to start.
2:21:56
I'll start with the whole I'll start with these guys. >> Yeah.
2:22:00
>> Tell you which is which. >> Oh, you won't.
2:22:02
>> Yeah, I think I just did. But whatever.
2:22:04
Sit there paying attention. >> All right. Here we go. >> Okay.
2:22:11
>> This is just seared just to bring the fat out and change the texture of black cod, >> but that you can taste the fat as what happens with that species.
2:22:18
>> And then when you're ready to try those guys. >> Okay. >> Okay. Back to back. Back to back. >> Got the baseline. >> This is good.
2:22:25
I always get hungry during the show. >> Good. I'm glad to feed you. >> Wow. Night and day.
2:22:39
>> So, this is yours and this is >> Exactly.
2:22:41
>> So, the the whole food one just tasted like kind of wet rubber. >> Yeah. Yeah.
2:22:46
It's more like it's more like homogeneous texture, I feel like.
2:22:50
>> Also, no no flavor at all. >> Yeah.
2:22:52
It just it just was like, "Okay, I just ate something that was just wet." >> Yeah.
2:22:57
>> Um versus this one is like >> I'm not a fish expert, but it has like like it's more there's like layers to it. >> Yeah.
2:23:06
I feel like this is this >> You can have the next Whole Food one.
2:23:10
>> I feel like this I feel like this is introducing me to this particular type of sushi.
2:23:14
I don't I don't usually order.
2:23:15
This is what type of cod? >> This is black cod. >> Black cod. >> Yeah.
2:23:18
So sable fish is another name. >> Start ordering this.
2:23:20
>> Think of like you know miso black cod from Nou. Yeah.
2:23:21
This is the exact same one.
2:23:24
We actually we we're uh partnering with you know like 40 mission stars across you know all the different restaurants we work with now.
2:23:31
>> Um and like for most of them they're saying that this is the best black coffee >> about that one.
2:23:35
>> Insane with the sauce too. >> Yeah. >> So good.
2:23:38
>> Those things with that species that that sauce everything really works hand in hand. >> Yeah.
2:23:42
So the reason >> what were you doing before this?
2:23:44
>> Oh uh I've been a sushi chef for over 30 years. >> Well yeah. Yeah.
2:23:48
When did you were you like 2 years old when you started?
2:23:52
>> I quit culinary school and became a Japanese apprentice at a Japanese restaurant and uh worked my way out of the dish pit all the way to start doing sushi.
2:23:57
And then I I tried to quit in 2015 and um really got into like aquaculture. >> Tried to quit. He's >> addicted.
2:24:03
You always you're always on the precipice of going back into the business.
2:24:06
But um I went into aquaculture.
2:24:08
I started looking behind and trying to find really good I I've been obsessed with finding good fish, good quality fish.
2:24:13
Uh that led me down to Baja and looking at aquaculture projects and really seeing getting behind in like what fish could be.
2:24:20
I wanted to get more local fish.
2:24:23
Um and then I got a call one day from one of our uh uh investors and was like I've got something for you.
2:24:28
It's going to blow your mind.
2:24:30
>> And uh I I met Safe and he told me the whole thing and I was obsessed like right from day one.
2:24:34
Tell me how we can do this.
2:24:35
>> You should tell the story of your time at Fish trying to source uh was >> quality.
2:24:39
So, my my chef partner and I, we had a a restaurant in Culver City here, and our whole thing was trying to source as as good as local fish as possible.
2:24:47
Nothing against Japan, but I wanted something more local.
2:24:49
We have great stuff off our coast.
2:24:52
>> We just the perception is that the Japanese stuff is just so much better, which it is, but at the same time, it's like you're flying it all the way over here, you're paying this money.
2:24:59
So, we wanted to have something that was just a representation of local fish.
2:25:02
Um, and so we were buying from some local fishermen that were doing EKG and bleeding. >> Oh, really?
2:25:08
But the hard part is now we're competing with the other LA chefs.
2:25:11
No, I wouldn't I wouldn't I the cost wasn't the thing.
2:25:13
It was it was competing with everyone else.
2:25:15
>> So it was really hard to menu that because you could only if you're on the text thread and you were a little late, >> everyone else is getting >> So that local fisherman, hey, I've got this stuff and by the time you answer, oh, >> no one's built a SAS platform for trading. Yeah.
2:25:29
I could only get my hands on like three to four fish at a time. Yeah. Yeah.
2:25:33
>> So, um it was really hard to menu have it basically every week and so this to me was like, "Oh, this is a no-brainer. This is for us.
2:25:42
This is basically a love letter as chefs that want this kind of quality, but at scale now. Now I can >> So, yeah.
2:25:47
So, talk about scale cuz you you said you're going into Michelin star restaurants.
2:25:50
That feels like a little bit of an unfair comparison because I don't usually go to a Michelin star restaurant and say, "Oh, yeah.
2:25:56
This is better than Whole Foods."
2:25:57
You know, that's not really the com.
2:26:01
I'm excited about the future where I get Michelin star quality at just, you know, the Whole Foods equivalent or wherever you guys are distributing.
2:26:07
So, what are the next steps?
2:26:09
How much do you have to scale this up?
2:26:10
What's the volume and what's the plan for actually getting this like widely available? >> Yeah, for sure. So, great question.
2:26:15
We are focused right now on the Michelin star restaurants because they are the taste makers. Totally.
2:26:20
But this is, you know, I don't know if you're a believer in trickle down economics, but this is kind of the same thing.
2:26:26
>> Yeah, it's a it's a loose analogy. Yes. >> Very loose. Yeah.
2:26:30
But I mean the premise is we're we're finding this market market that has a segment the willingness to pay for the quality and then basically >> use that to get more scale and then you can yeah >> and we're actually moving and making that transition now.
2:26:40
So like you know you know earlier this year we're doing like you know couple thousand pounds a week.
2:26:45
Now we're like you know in eight figures now of like uh just like tens of thousand pounds.
2:26:50
>> Is the bottleneck uh like capital or actually people to build more machines?
2:26:55
>> We cannot build machines fast enough.
2:26:57
>> We can't build machines fast enough.
2:26:58
What's the bottleneck to building more machines?
2:26:59
Technicians, if you're listening, reach out, please.
2:27:00
Field engineers for deployed equipment.
2:27:04
>> You want to build killer robots. >> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. >> Reach out. >> So, yeah.
2:27:07
What What What does a technician actually do?
2:27:08
Are they like assembling different parts that have been cut on a CNC or something and piecing together your machine from parts that have been machined themselves?
2:27:18
>> So, we do very very light fabric, but most of it is just assembly in house.
2:27:21
And we work with local machine shops all, you know, in, you know, uh, local to Southern California.
2:27:25
And then you know the intention of course is like we're going to build out you know full team that is doing all the assembly work you know and also diagnosis test engineers whatever have you.
2:27:33
Uh right now we're still early days but we're doing you know machine every two weeks at this point.
2:27:38
>> Is there a world where you partner with someone else to help build the machines?
2:27:42
We were just talking to Yeah.
2:27:42
We were just talking to uh Chris Power over at Hrien and he was saying like every company will need a Hrien style factory.
2:27:49
Of course he's focused on defense technology and ship building and all of that stuff.
2:27:53
So he's saying like I'm going to go to a company.
2:27:55
He didn't mention anyone by by name, but you could imagine he goes to Anderoll or Loheed Martin or SpaceX and says, "Okay, you need a new factory to build this stuff at scale.
2:28:05
We will set that up for you. We will manage it.
2:28:07
It lives on our balance sheet."
2:28:08
Like how do you think about where the long-term uh like asset sits because that's more of like a capital structure question, right?
2:28:17
>> The machines pay themselves back in 12 weeks very fast and you know, so we're very capital light.
2:28:20
Yeah, >> there is definitely a world where we could go for CM if we decide that, you know, we're making hundreds of machines.
2:28:26
Uh I don't think we'll ever reach that production capacity speed because I don't think we'll need to.
2:28:30
It might we might fragment, you know, if we decide to expand internationally, you know, in different countries have different factories, but you know, in the core factory here in in Southern California, you know, I really doubt we're going to be making hundreds of machines a year.
2:28:42
>> How much does the machine like weigh? How big is it?
2:28:43
It's like >> Yeah, so it's about you know, you know, >> it's about as big as this table, right?
2:28:48
>> It's actually much smaller now.
2:28:48
Um yeah, it's like the size of like a large refrigerator, you know, 6 feet tall.
2:28:53
>> So you could in theory make that in America and still ship it to Japan if it's totally >> doable.
2:28:58
And again, that's as a percentage of the cost.
2:28:58
Like machine is pretty heavy. It's like 750 pounds.
2:29:02
>> It's going to be frayed.
2:29:02
It's going to be on a boat for a month or two, but but >> it's going to be on boats for a long time.
2:29:07
>> It'll permanently be on boats.
2:29:08
>> Where uh if people want uh to try which are you allowed to talk publicly about the rest like the various Michelin stars?
2:29:17
All our fish are sold under our brand and grade ceremony grade.
2:29:19
Um, and so kind of like a nod to ceremony grade matcha right there.
2:29:24
So if you go to ceremony.
2:29:26
com spelled with an s and with an I.
2:29:27
Uh, we actually have a list of all the restaurants.
2:29:29
You'll see all the different ones.
2:29:30
We're in every major metro.
2:29:32
So like Miami, Austin, Denver, Colorado, >> uh, Minneapolis, as well as all the coastal cities of like, you know, uh, >> every every single one you can think of.
2:29:41
Um, and so we'll have like our key restaurant partners there.
2:29:42
If you're based in LA and you want, you know, a few buddies of ours, you can go to Yes.
2:29:47
downtown in uh, you know, they they do, you know, that's a great story there.
2:29:51
You know, a Japanese chef who came here to the US and she taught a lot of the local fisherman how to do EKG and then started using our product.
2:29:57
>> He's the guy we really wanted to get to the the uh I I I would save his approval and and we did, which was a huge I think he almost started crying when >> he came out when we when we I I forget when we actually met.
2:30:08
Was it a year and a half ago or two years ago?
2:30:09
And you were you it was just you on the team.
2:30:14
You maybe had one other person, two engineers, >> and you were b you were laying out this plan of like you were going to make the machine.
2:30:21
You were going to get it on boats.
2:30:23
You were going to like actually produce the fish and then sell it to the end restaurant.
2:30:27
And it sounded uh pretty unhinged to like verticalize basically like go that quickly and own the full process.
2:30:34
But uh it's absolutely the progress when you have such such a huge difference in the fish like it's a no-brainer because you know we actually initially started doing the go to market in uh you know more like a robotics as a service business where you'd pay for every single fish that you would process this way. Sure.
2:30:52
>> Uh what we found was when we'd work with fishermen you know they're out you know on their Nokia in the middle of the ocean with no like cell service.
2:30:57
They're not gonna be sitting there like trying to like post on Instagram some, you know, some fun real about how they cook their fish this way. Sure.
2:31:04
Uh and basically what we would have to do is do all the same work we're doing now of talking to distributors, talking to retailers, teaching them about the technique, you know, across like more nutrition, more shelf life, more weight retention, like all these different benefits.
2:31:17
And so rather than us having to do all that work and and having to share that um for reduced risk with the fisherman, we thought let's just go risk on.
2:31:24
And so we basically like build all the machines ourselves.
2:31:26
And then uh we owe and maintain them on our balance sheet.
2:31:31
Fishermen make more money.
2:31:31
You know, in some cases, we're literally doubling their take-home margins.
2:31:33
And you know, obviously this increased shelf life.
2:31:36
You know, all those other benefits like trickle down across the entire supply chain and everybody wins. >> Very cool. >> Amazing. >> Awesome.
2:31:43
>> First ever tasting on TV live tasting.
2:31:47
>> You guys knocked it out of the park.
2:31:48
This is a highstakes demo.
2:31:48
We might have you might have got it wrong.
2:31:50
We might have been like, "Oh, >> yeah. You guys crushed it.
2:31:53
Appreciate you coming out.
2:31:54
Thank you for bringing sushi on sushi on the set. Fantastic. Progress is amazing. >> All right.
2:31:59
Well, thank you for having us.
2:32:00
We can we can close out the show together with with the boys here.
2:32:05
>> We'll see you Monday, everybody.
2:32:05
Have a fantastic >> five star on Apple Podcast and Spotify.
2:32:11
And uh have a great weekend everybody. D Monday.