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[Music] You're watching TBPN.
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Today is Friday, July 11th, 2025.
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We are live from the TBPN Ultradome.
6:13
>> That's right, >> the Temple of Technology, >> the Fortress of Finance, the capital of capital.
6:16
We got a great show for you.
6:16
We have some maybe terrible news.
6:19
There might be top signals in the market.
6:24
There might be top signals all over the place.
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>> We've been uh building out an internal top signal tracker, crowdsourcing some of them. >> Crazy. >> And it's a long list.
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Yeah, we'll get through it.
6:34
>> At the top of the list, podcasters have been wearing white suits recently to celebrate the market ripping.
6:38
That feels >> white suits are actually a top signal.
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>> It's a complete top signal.
6:43
Um, but of course there is some good there are some the economy is strong.
6:48
We're going to go through uh Joe Weisenthal's breakdown.
6:53
Things are not doom and gloom, but there's a lot of crazy stuff happening and it's fun to dig through.
6:56
Uh I mean the first major top signal, Bitcoin alltime high. >> Yep.
7:01
>> Yep. you know that's always you know it is definitionally a top signal because >> let's go through the list here because some of this quite substantial >> some of this kind of anonymously contributed through uh group chats uh some of stuff we've we've observed uh
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we're going to catalog it and see if we can turn the tide of the top signals to okay ideally >> so starting off uh yesterday >> uh Trump made a post on truth social calling uh basically celebrating the state of the economy the markets >> uh you know just really calling out how how many assets are performing well. >> I have it the second one.
7:37
>> I have it the second one.
7:38
>> Do you want to read through it?
7:38
You want to read through it a little bit because he basically >> get through the post and and we'll get to the moment.
7:45
>> So Donald Trump on truth social truths uh tech stocks, industrial stocks and NASDAQ hit all-time high record highs. Crypto through the roof.
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Nvidia is up 47% since Trump tariffs.
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USA is t taking in hundreds of billions of dollars in tariffs.
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Country is now back a great credit.
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Fed should rapidly lower rate to reflect this strength.
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>> USA should be at the top of the list.
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>> So low rates low rates are actually just a reward for when the markets are ripping.
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It's a little treat that we give ourselves. >> Exactly.
8:20
>> When things are great. >> Yep.
8:21
And the White House is posting this screenshotted on Axe.
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The country is now back, says the President Donald Trump.
8:29
>> Every account controlled by the White House has been on a tear.
8:32
Some of them uh some of the posts, I think, are a little bit um low class and vulgar, but others others are quite funny.
8:41
>> But there's definitely the the memeers are in control.
8:43
Wait, didn't Ruin say every like uh every politically aligned um poster he knows who is like pro Trump now works for the White House, but like you just haven't seen it because they were like a nons and they just like dropped off posting and now they're >> they'd be getting death threats.
8:58
So they have to it's even actually more in many ways it's it's more controversial work than Doge. >> Maybe. Yeah. Yeah.
9:05
Maybe it's more under discussed because Doge had this big like question in the media about like, you know, is Elon doing something that's, you know, he shouldn't be?
9:12
Is he a government employee?
9:14
Like what's the relationship between the two?
9:16
Uh, and so, you know, there was a lot of investigative journalism that went into figuring out what's going on with Doge, who's involved. >> Yeah.
9:23
But nobody's investigating the social media managers, which is >> they need to be investigating the me the memes of production.
9:28
But, um, >> anyway, so so going through my list here. That's great.
9:33
Uh Eric uh Trump a while back said this is a good time to buy.
9:37
This was a few months ago on on Ethereum.
9:40
>> On Ethereum >> and then it just went down for months and now it's back up and now it's back up and he's saying you're welcome.
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>> I do remember Trump he called the bottom, right?
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He said like now is a good time to buy generally and then the market ripped since then.
9:52
>> He created it and he and he called it perfectly. >> It's wild. >> It's finesse.
9:55
Um more going down the list.
9:58
uh Coinbase just uh who who we love, but they did uh they are a Fortune 500 company.
10:04
They did update their profile picture to an NFT.
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Historically, that has been a top signal.
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I do think their profile picture >> Do you have any experience with the NFT profile pictures?
10:15
>> You know, I've delved I've delved over the years. >> Yes.
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And if you and if you look at maybe the moment that I did use an NFT profile picture in 2021, >> uh it was maybe only off by one or two months in terms of in terms of the >> I never used a NFT profile picture, but I bought an NFT >> right near the top. >> A chain runner. >> Chain runner. >> Nice.
10:37
>> Which I still own, >> which actually I didn't like overinvest, get over my skis as very small portion of like >> it's an asset that will be passed down through your family like >> a fine watch.
10:45
I like to think of it as like a piece of 2022 lore, you know, it's just like a piece of history.
10:50
Uh but uh yeah, yeah, fun project.
10:52
And I feel like to some degree, you know, you're not really It's like a skin in the game question, like you're not really participating, you're not experiencing the the market unless you're participating to some degree, but you don't want to get over your skis.
11:06
Um also did the NFT profile picture at a really bad time and had to roll that back.
11:12
Like there's been a number of like NFT profile pictures that have been like >> it is a historical top signal.
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>> it is a historical top signal. It could be it could be now just a signal for the start of a you know generational run new cycle but uh historically it's a top signal so we got to call it out >> if if NFTTS are going to make a comeback
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because like there's been like crypto has been coming back and Bitcoin went from what 30 >> will be back when A-list celebrities are using them on their Facebook accounts >> that was a >> that's the real test X account could see it happening early. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. >> Facebook account.
11:50
>> Original Facebook account.
11:52
>> There's got to be a new project then cuz I don't think any of the old pro old old products or projects are going to, you know, come back. That would be crazy.
12:00
Although some of them are kind of lindy like haven't the original >> crypto punks. >> Crypto punks.
12:03
Those have kind of held their value.
12:04
But the board apes have sold off like crazy.
12:06
But are still it's it's unfortunate board apes are not in gag gift territory yet. Yes.
12:11
Because you you think, "Oh, it' be funny to get like your buddy like a board ape for their birthday." >> 30K or something.
12:18
>> But it's like, yeah, it's like >> Tyler, how what's the floor price of uh of board apes?
12:21
I'm I'm interested to know.
12:24
Um while Tyler looks that up, let me tell you about Ramp. Time is money. Save both.
12:27
Easy to use corporate cards, bill payments, accounting, and a whole lot more all in one place. Go to ramp. com.
12:31
Also, we don't we never shout this out. 4.
12:32
8 stars on G2 with over 2,000 reviews. That's great. Shout out RAM. >> World class.
12:37
Okay, another floor price is like around 10 ETH.
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So that's like almost $3,000. >> 3,000 30,000. >> 30,000. Yeah.
12:46
That's like not a gag gift.
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>> Maybe for the man who has everything. >> Yes.
12:52
For the man who has everything. Great uh great gag gift. >> It is pink elephant. We'll see at Sun Valley.
12:59
>> But that, you know, by by you know Christmas time.
13:02
>> Do they do pink elephants at Sun Valley?
13:04
>> I feel like they should. >> Maybe.
13:05
Maybe ask some of our some of our friends that are there this week.
13:09
Uh so in other news, um >> uh Robin Hood CEO Vlad is raising uh at $900 million valuation for a math foundation model startup.
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And Vlad and Robin Hood have been on a pretty generational run, but this does feel uh a bit uh top signaly, right?
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Uh especially in the context of Grock oneshotting PhD level math.
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uh in the announcement on Wednesday.
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So interested to follow that one.
13:42
Uh optimistic but again >> mathematical super >> historically when we've seen CEOs of of public companies start ripping you know second companies and then and then uh getting these types of valuations uh without a lot of underlying revenue uh it can end uh poorly.
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U >> uh Andrew Wilkinson is giving uh stock tips.
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He hit the timeline today. I'll read through it.
14:10
He was highlighting a company uh historically a value investor, but this morning >> Oh, yeah.
14:18
He sold things like the Warren Buffett stuff, right?
14:20
>> The um Birkshshire Hathway for the internet. >> Yeah, that's right.
14:24
>> Uh he says, "There are many ways to profit from the AI boom, but my favorite is Iron. I rarely buy stocks.
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The private market is way too attractive.
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But every once in a while, I see something something that stops me cold. In 2025, it's Irend.
14:34
I call it a Picasso I found at a garage sale.
14:40
>> The stock is up 54% since he re recommended it on my first million, but it's still cheap.
14:45
Here's the trade in a nutshell.
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US capacity for energy and compute is highly constrained.
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Two, permitting and building facilities takes years.
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Three, AI scaling laws are continuing to deliver, but even if they don't, tons of compute is required for inference. Mhm.
15:02
>> Iron is a highly reputable, publicly traded Bitcoin miner with massive data centers mid build in Texas.
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It pivoted away from mining Bitcoin at these new facilities to instead build them out for AI training and inference.
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Once completed, these facilities should generate in the range of $2 billion in new cash flow.
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>> This company's name I >> even if AI completely fizzles, these facilities are highly valuable as traditional data centers or can be rolled back to mine Bitcoin.
15:29
So, it's an AI thesis, but if AI doesn't work out, we can still mine Bitcoin.
15:34
The entire market cap is currently 3. 8 billion.
15:36
So, uh Andrew, I don't think this is investment advice, but it sounds like it.
15:44
Um, and uh interested to see uh see where this one goes.
15:51
But uh anyway, anytime you see a value investor start trying to cash in on the AI boom should be a little bit wary.
16:00
>> Uh Harry Stubbbings today was >> not like like it doesn't have earnings, right?
16:05
It's a lot no it's >> it's trading around4 billion.
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>> I don't think it's ever generated any profit.
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>> I mean it says it says 23 million in EBITDA but in 2024 so I don't think it's like losing that much money.
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And I guess net income in the last quarter was 24 million, but the net income to market cap ratio there is 40 I guess. So still pretty high. >> Yeah.
16:30
I mean the the the thing here is at the same time SATA is pulling back on new data center development.
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He's happy to be a leaser.
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>> You have incredible neoclouds that have deep domain expertise.
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deep domain expertise. the Iron team I don't think has a bunch of team around uh running large AI training or inferencing >> and so um anyways >> just feels like they're a little bit late to that party because there's already like three or four did I make the uh cluster max uh Dylan Patel article >> I doubt it because they're not online yet right >> oh sure sure >> yes because semi analysis does the uh cluster max rating for all the neo
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clouds including the the hyperscaler clouds And I feel like they did not have um let me see iron I don't think is on here tensor wave there are so many runpod lambda scaleway smc azure nebas together cruso leptton oracle coreweave AWS >> so hyper competitive market unclear if this Bitcoin miner is going to be able to pivot into AI training and inference uh in this >> when they're up against the uh players that you just mentioned. Uh, another top
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Uh, another top signal, um, I'm not going to go out and say that this is impossible, but Harry Stebings is calling for 8 trillion Nvidia in the next five years.
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Uh, private markets investor backed a bunch of unicorns.
17:58
Um, uh, starting to make, you know, very specific uh, sort of price predictions uh, on the timeline.
18:08
>> Specificity of the price prediction is interesting.
18:10
I was thinking about that like should like as we talk about tech companies should we be trying to like boil down to like price targets and I just feel like that's not the domain of of talking heads necessarily or like podcasters >> I guess >> or private markets investors. >> Yeah. I Yeah.
18:27
It's just it's just hard because like to do a proper price analysis on a big public stock like you you really have to look at the financial like you have to read the the the the financial reports.
18:37
you need to actually understand the underlying financials.
18:39
Um it it like the vibes based analysis doesn't seem appropriate usually, but um >> who knows?
18:46
I mean, sometimes vibes are all you need, John.
18:49
>> Yeah, it's certainly been like it's I mean, when was when was Nvidia $2 trillion stock?
18:52
Like when was last doubling?
18:54
Like in the last year or something? I don't know.
18:55
We can pull up the Nvidia chart and see.
18:57
Uh, moving on, we another incredible top signal.
19:03
Circle, a great American uh, stable coin company is trading at a 2,300 >> uh, PE ratio uh, nearly uh, at once.
19:11
I think they eclipsed Coinbase's valuation very briefly. No way.
19:20
>> Despite the fact that they give half of their revenue to Coinbase Y >> as part of their distribution partnership.
19:26
So again, lots of excitement around stable coins.
19:28
Um feels like Circle could potentially be uh a little over its skis, but it's a great company and they have a lot of advant advantages now, but the um it's very euphoric uh uh multiple.
19:39
Another top signal we have is Sohan Periq.
19:43
We had him on the show >> uh just a week ago.
19:47
>> uh just a week ago. uh this same sort of thing was happening in 2021 2022 where engineers were really ramping up moonlighting activity right they'd be working at meta and then working at some startup or or things like that co maybe accelerated it but again if if companies
20:05
are so desperate to hire great engineers that they'll run these like super fast hiring cycles put up with people generally talented people that are underperforming right which so was was not delivering was making a lot of excuses and a lot of people rightly let him go quickly. >> Yeah, it's just a it's just a the nature
20:23
>> Yeah, it's just a it's just a the nature of like the dynamic of uh just competition like if your competitors are hiring really fast and you need to hire really fast.
20:32
You're just like, "Okay, well, we don't need to go deeper."
20:35
So, with let's wind up fasttracking this person. Yeah.
20:37
So, you wind up hiring uh you know, the same person five times. I guess >> it happens. It happens.
20:43
It is just like a funny anecdote that like is like, "Oh, wow.
20:47
Those were some pretty crazy times." Remember that anecdote? Remember this anecdote?
20:50
It feels like we're we're in this. >> Moving on.
20:54
Uh MASA top blasting or potentially top blasting.
20:57
Uh anytime MASA historically MASA getting into the headlines, uh whether that's Stargate, >> yeah, >> uh structuring this $30 billion investment where nobody knows or and the 500 billion, nobody really knows where the money's coming from.
21:11
They're exciting big headline numbers but unclear if uh he will actually be able to deliver on that.
21:19
I think him trying you know getting in the breakout one of the breakout consumer AI winners which is OpenAI is smart.
21:26
He should have exposure there.
21:28
Um but I think everybody should be a little bit uneasy that he's pulling out the checkbook >> and and writing numbers of that size. Yeah.
21:36
Um, >> also also investing in not just open AI but like a new company that is a data center holding company that may not have the same economics as open AI.
21:44
So there's a big question there about like how much he deploys.
21:47
I I'm trying to remember the uh I mean we did that whole deep dive on MASA and you know he made a ton of money on AMD but that when he made that investment it was like a way less frothy time or you know it wasn't AMD it was uh it was uh what what what was the SoftBank uh chip deal? >> ARM.
22:06
>> ARM yeah when did that ARM deal happen?
22:08
Um Soft Bank require uh owns roughly 90% of ARM.
22:16
They acquired in 2016 for 32 billion and later took it public in 2023.
22:22
I'm trying to think 2016 was that a particularly frothy time for him to get into that deal because he has he has done a number of really great deals but when like the >> the other one is the other one is is Yahoo.
22:35
You remember he he had this crazy meeting with the Yahoo team >> where he basically was like take my money or I'm going to and he was like didn't he ask he was like who are your competitors?
22:44
>> I'm going to give money to He didn't even know who the competitors were, but he said, "If you don't take my money, I'm going to go give the same check to them."
22:51
>> Uh, so he they ended up taking it, he acquired approximately 41% of the company >> uh at um somewhere around a $200 million valuation.
23:02
>> Uh when Yahoo went public in 1996, the uh he had an instant paper profit of 150 million.
23:11
But then at the peak of the dotcom bubble, Yahoo was valued at 125 billion.
23:18
>> So anyways, uh phenomenal investment but uh very different uh valuation and and ownership targets and and uh unclear.
23:24
Um I would love to see OpenAI get, you know, for profit and get public uh but uh for to to you know, we'll we'll have to see.
23:36
Um, going down the list, another classic Pomp spack that uh we we had Pomp on the show to talk about it. Spacks are back. >> Spacks are back. Pomp's got a spack.
23:45
A lot of people were calling that a top signal.
23:49
I I'm excited to see what what Pomp does uh with with his.
23:51
Um but in general, this uh >> this extreme excite retail excitement around these sort of Bitcoin treasury companies is fascinating. >> Yeah.
24:04
in the context of it now being very easy to get Bitcoin exposure in a variety of different ways.
24:10
I I'm not sure we need a bunch of net new Bitcoin treasury companies.
24:15
Yeah, it's it's it's mostly that like whenever there's a whenever there's a new trend or bubble there like there it's very easy to map like okay there's one company that it's really working this is massively successful like everyone is using chat GBT like AI is a thing it is it is real the internet was real Google was real Amazon was real but the the 25th Amazon copycat did not do well.
24:46
And so that's always the risk is that you've applied like the same overarching theme to something that's like so far down the power law that it will never grow into the valuation that it's been assigned. That's always the risk. >> Yep.
25:01
>> What else do you have?
25:03
>> Dwaresh updating his timelines. Uh that happened Monday. We had him on the show.
25:08
It was uh it was fun conversation.
25:08
I think Dwart Kesh has remained incredibly bullish and and uh and I think he rightfully is.
25:17
He also uh is being somewhat of a realist and being like I don't think that AI is priced in to the market broadly but I do think that some of the promises of AI will take >> another couple years another five years etc to really deliver versus some of the much more hyperaggressive AI 2027.
25:36
much more hyperaggressive AI 2027. You might say that AI 2027 itself was in in hindsight that could end up being like the number one top signal which is that >> basically if if you haven't read the the >> uh kind of study paper essay um they
25:53
basically say that by by 2027 you know a single foundation model company could just be acquiring every auto manufacturer in the US to develop you know uh millions and millions of robots that would then you know build uh you know and and we would hit the sort of fast takeoff. >> Meanwhile, Apple was like we can't
26:12
>> Meanwhile, Apple was like we can't possibly get out a slightly lighter uh VR headset until 2027. >> Yeah.
26:19
>> Like and and this is what we do. Like like we make stuff.
26:22
>> We've been working on this for a decade.
26:24
>> We make stuff like every year. We are the best at it.
26:26
We make the most stuff and the best stuff pretty much. Most complicated stuff.
26:30
That's what we make when we're in the widgets business.
26:31
And yeah, making that headset lighter, it's going to take us a full two years. Refresh that. >> And I liked 2027.
26:38
It was a It was a fun reading for very thoughtprovoking, but uh I I think that uh we will be uh we'll have to circle back on it 2030 or even 2027.
26:51
I mean the the the the big thing was you know our conversation yesterday with with meter um about the actual like are we are we close to reinforcing AI uh where the AI models are self-improving and and I was kind of you know like okay I I really hadn't read the full report beforehand so I didn't really know what to expect.
27:14
to expect. I was blown away because uh I was expecting you know you know something between like you know like Arc AGI it feels like with ARC AGI we're 10% towards solving something there which is just like you know a basic versatility in AI um that it can solve things that humans can solve and it's not narrowly defined it's generalizable now uh RKGI is like the perfect example of like we maybe haven't hit we've done
27:44
intelligence but we haven't done general intelligence yet and everyone keeps saying oh this is AGI that's AGI and ARKGI is really holding it back saying like well if it was truly general should probably be able to solve this basic
27:56
puzzle that a kid can solve um and and for that it's like okay we're going from like 9% to 15% like we are still like you know 85% in not even like you know nowhere close um and uh and the uh the um the the the meter report. I was
28:15
I was expecting it to be like, well, you know, yes, we're seeing, you know, uh slight gains on self-reinforcing AI development and the and the the AI is starting to help build the itself slightly and and the result was like, no, it's actually setting us back in in in this domain. It's not working at all.
28:38
And so that was like a pretty pretty big like okay there's a there's a completely different like not that it's not useful the stuff's useful all over the place.
28:46
I saw Rune talking about that he was like yeah for so many different projects it is useful but for the frontier like it's not the product that's advancing the frontier at all. >> Yeah.
28:57
But yeah, I mean that that that probably bridges into the the talent wars, but >> well, yeah, bridging in uh I do think that in hindsight, uh we will look back in maybe a year, two years, 5 years, 10 years and think about the signing bonuses and general offers of AI researchers in June and July of 2025 as being somewhat of a uh top signal.
29:20
I think it is very strategic and makes sense from Zach and Meta's point of view, right?
29:27
When you look at their AI capex, >> it makes sense for them to have the best possible team and they have the balance sheet and the general profitability in order to uh do something like that.
29:37
But in general, uh, AI researchers who, you know, six years ago, uh, didn't get any attention, uh, much attention at all from the media.
29:49
The fact that they're now trading for more than NBA superstars, more than, um, more than, uh, you know, Tim Cook's annual uh, total comp.
29:59
Um, >> it will be an obvious one in hindsight. Uh the other one uh $6.
30:04
5 billion aqua hire of of IO.
30:07
Uh I think that again you can rationalize it in the sense that it's a couple points >> of open AI to put together the best founding hardware engineering team probably in the world that's available collectively.
30:23
>> Uh but at the same time again it's it's quite a lot uh considering you know the company was barely I think a year old um at the time.
30:31
Yeah, it's it's interesting because like chat GPT is so it's so installed like it feels like it's already Lindy and it feels like even if there is some massive correction like in in the market or in AI generally or some pullback like people are still going to be using CHPT as an app right in the same way that Amazon made it through the dot crash.
30:53
Uh the question is like what what will it take for the IO acquisition to look like the Instagram acquisition in hindsight like they still kind of have to go from zero to one with that project which is very different than Instagram which was already a mature and growing business.
31:12
It wasn't >> they figured out ads really well.
31:15
>> Well Instagram they were were they doing ads?
31:17
>> They weren't doing ads. >> Oh yeah.
31:18
>> Saying but Meta was like we know how to make >> Yeah.
31:20
a perfectly complicated perfectly complimentary business.
31:23
>> We know how to monetize social users better than anyone on earth >> and you have gotten a bunch of users and it's working and it's growing and and you're even >> and we can actually accelerate the growth of the business in a bunch of different ways.
31:33
So, it'd be very different if it was like, okay, yes, IO is selling, you know, like like it's it's a small but growing hardware company that people love >> with a product people love >> with a product people love.
31:44
And maybe they can't manufacture enough of it or maybe they're maybe they're underetizing it right now, but people love it.
31:48
But it's like it's pre-launch.
31:52
>> Like, yeah, multi-billion dollar acquisition for pre-launch. It's pretty crazy. >> Yep.
31:55
Uh going down the list, um what else do we I think I think the tokenized private company shares I I think it with um without you know Republic and and Robin Hood both creating products that are completely unauthorized basically der derivatives the companies that they're they're offering are are angry at them saying don't do this.
32:18
>> Um and uh >> is the Spider-Man meme of like top signals pointing at each other.
32:23
Everyone's like this is a top signal.
32:26
>> Uh anyways I'm excited about these experiments.
32:27
I just think that um uh I'm a little bit wary.
32:30
Uh and then last but not least, Satia doing two rounds of layoffs this year.
32:37
Uh M we've tal we've reported on this before.
32:39
Microsoft does routine layoffs.
32:41
I think they're pretty good at at at kind of identifying underperformers or people that should just move on to different different roles.
32:48
Um but uh Satia I think has been I think we'll look back and he's been uh excited uh but pragmatic right um and uh I think that uh he will u when the dust settles I think he'll look pretty good. Yeah.
33:05
I wonder like if there's some massive pullback and I mean I I don't even know what what what that would look like essentially like if let let let's assume that the the current capability of AI models essentially plateaus for like a decade or something like that just hypothetically.
33:23
Um and you know they're useful but it's not some reinforcing fast takeoff super intelligence.
33:30
What is Microsoft a big loser in that scenario?
33:34
It seems like Satcha is pretty well positioned, right? >> Totally.
33:38
>> Um like the company prints cash is very healthy, has done these layoffs.
33:41
They'd have to retreat from some stuff and some of the promises that they made maybe.
33:48
Um, but in general it seems like they'd be really really well set up to just like like stick through.
33:51
But I'm trying to I'm trying to think of going back to the the.
33:55
com bubble and and the like you know the effect of like Oracle's mainframe business like probably made it through pretty smoothly because it was just like really long contracts with companies that were getting true business value out of it and weren't about to churn because it was not this like experimental like like if you had moved from paper to an Oracle mainframe.
34:19
You weren't like oh this stuff's overhyped it's not going to solve all my problems.
34:22
I'm going to go back to paper. >> Yeah.
34:24
>> You know, and so in the same way it's like if you're on, you know, Microsoft cloud or Azure or, you know, everyone's using Excel and they're like, "Yeah, maybe we're getting some value out of this co-pilot upgrade that we did.
34:34
Maybe we pull back from that.
34:36
Maybe, yeah, we, you know, our employees like rewriting emails every once in a while." Yeah.
34:41
>> Like if they pull back from that, it's not disastrous to the fundamentals of Microsoft. Um, >> yeah. Yeah.
34:47
And we didn't even cover how there's a set of labs with billions of revenue and then there's a set of labs that are valued similarly that have zero revenue. >> Yeah.
34:58
>> And uh you know basically hundred billion dollars of of market cap >> um with with very little uh revenue supporting that at all.
35:06
the the uh the question like a year ago was um what what was the uh who who's actually making profit off of AI and it was only Nvidia.
35:18
Nvidia was making more than 100% of all the profit combined because all the other companies were lossmaking by comparison.
35:25
Um, and now and now like that narrative has taken so much hold that Nvidia is the largest company in the world and it's put this massive target on their back at 4 trillion where every all of their major customers want to get off Nvidia it feels like. Yeah.
35:43
Yeah, like Google did it, Amazon's doing it, and Microsoft saying that they want to do it.
35:48
And uh Apple's, you know, was never really a big NVIDIA buyer, but the ondevice inference is crazy, too.
35:54
Like, if you think about if if we don't have any major breakthroughs in how AI works, like the capabilities, and we just want the current capabilities everywhere as cheap as possible, like ondevice inference becomes really, really valuable, right?
36:07
And all of a sudden that drops demand for Nvidia potentially, right?
36:12
>> We might need to do a SWAT analysis, John. >> Yeah.
36:16
>> No, I mean Nvidia is an incredible company.
36:18
Jensen's an incredible CEO.
36:18
Uh they were perfectly positioned for this, you know, multi-deade technology trend.
36:29
>> And it was way underpriced at the start of the boom. Yeah.
36:31
Like the the orders really did come in, the training runs really did happen.
36:35
really did happen. The question is just is that next order of magnitude the like the situational awareness from Leah Leopold Ashenbrunner this thesis that we're going to build a five billion cluster then a $50 billion cluster then a $500 billion cluster like is that
36:50
going to happen or will there be a hiccup and this is always the this is always my question for like the doomers everyone was saying like p doom I'm I you know what's my percentage chance it goes bad and I was like the much more interesting question is p stagnation
37:04
what is the probability that something happens and whether it's technological or even regulatory like the if you compare AI to nukes with nukes we had the ability to make nuclear reactors and humanity as a whole basically just said we're going to pause and we stopped
37:24
building them and now we're talking about building them again but if you look at that curve it is a perfect scurve it's like we had no nuclear reactors then all of a sudden we grew them exponentially and it looked like, wow, we're going to have energy too cheap to meter. And then it flatlined
37:37
And then it flatlined and we were and and for a variety of reasons, they're hard to build, hard then there were regulations.
37:44
There was just general fear.
37:45
So there were a lot of different things and and I would always go to the doomers and just say like even if all of your assumptions about the capabilities of the technology are correct, what is the probability that there's just like if you are successful doomers and you freak everyone out, there might be regulation that just says don't build anything bigger. >> Yeah.
38:04
or it could be economics.
38:04
It could just be it could be physics as we've talked about with this this idea that at a certain point like you can't put more than 100% of global GDP towards building clusters like it's impossible.
38:17
Um and so like there should be this like scurve there.
38:22
Um and and that's why you know all the all the AI researchers are now focused on like the the compression of learning and like the actual algorithms and getting more efficiency because like there will be uh you know there should be some sort of like you know top upper bound of the amount that you can build but that certainly hasn't been like a thesis broadly in the market.
38:40
People have just been like yeah like we'll just we'll just 10x computing and then 10x it again then 10x it again.
38:46
And it's like it probably will happen over a period of time.
38:50
Great investment strategy, by the way.
38:52
Just got to 10x >> and then 10x it again.
38:54
>> 10x it again and then 10x it again. >> Yeah.
38:57
>> And last but not not least, almost >> uh almost forgot about this one, but it should be included.
39:03
The uh White House meme coins uh which was which feels like >> crazy times >> very long ago.
39:09
It was the local top basically at the time.
39:14
>> Uh >> it was the local top.
39:15
>> Many people were calling the top. >> Yes. just hurling meme coins. >> Yes.
39:21
>> Out of the White House. >> Yeah.
39:22
So, that's the real question is like is like how how local is this top?
39:28
If if if it is a top because it could be we've been in the kangaroo market.
39:31
It could just be oh, a couple months even even the the interest rate uh selloff the post SBV crash that was like one hard year, right?
39:42
And then we started building back and we got the AI narrative.
39:45
And so there's this big question about like like you know Darkh pushed his timelines back but he's not saying that super intelligence will never arrive.
39:54
He's he's not saying that AI will never break through these things.
39:58
He's just saying that it'll happen a little bit a little bit further out.
40:00
And so the question of you know like these meme coins being a being a top signaler all this crazy stuff.
40:06
It's like there could be like a shortterm sell-off and then rebuilding back up on something else. So I don't know.
40:12
It's always hard to manage these things and predict, but it's certainly fun to highlight all these things and at least be >> good to keep track of them.
40:19
>> Yeah, you got to be tracking the top. >> Keep your own list. Keep your own list. >> Yeah.
40:22
Uh anyway, let me tell you about graphite code review for the age of AI.
40:26
Graphite helps teams on GitHub ship higher quality software faster.
40:28
You can get started for free at graphite. dev.
40:30
Um let's go through some more timeline.
40:34
Joe Weisenthal says, "Thinking about the recent episode we did with Charlie Mick Elgot Elgot where he referred to Trump as the human Vex." I like that.
40:42
He just creates volatility out of thin air. It really is. >> Yeah.
40:48
>> I mean, Trumpcoin Trumpcoin is up uh 20%. >> Yeah. >> Over the last week.
40:52
>> I mean, volatility traders have to be well >> dramatically uh since >> what is the what is like the actual market cap of Trumpcoin? Is it sticking around?
41:00
>> The uh circulating market cap is 2 billion.
41:03
fully diluted is 10 billion.
41:03
Uh the price per Trump is currently >> it peaked at $45 and it is at $10 today. >> Wild.
41:15
>> So >> I like this one from IM developer.
41:15
The dumbest person you know is being told you're absolutely right by chat GPT.
41:22
>> Like it is funny to imagine that that is somewhat like that like is is the glazegate like deranging society in some way?
41:30
is is the fact that everyone's getting this like constant positive reinforcement.
41:35
Um because if you go to it and you're like, "Hey, should I should I go 100x long in the market right now?"
41:41
It's like, "Yeah, you actually from my interactions like you you're at the level of Citadel.
41:48
You're definitely you definitely could just be a hedge fund manager if you if you went full-time on it. Like, you could do it."
41:53
Like, you're definitely not just like a retail trader who's going to get hosed this time like every time. >> You're different. >> You're different. You're different.
41:59
Uh Tracy Aloway has a funny post this week in a nutshell. Do you see this one?
42:04
>> Markets don't like tariffs, but Trump just imposed more tariffs and markets are at all-time highs because markets think he's going to pull them back. Hilarious. It's great.
42:13
Um I mean uh you know we are just in this cycle of like even even the bad news is just like a catalyst for good news when it's reversed. >> Yeah.
42:25
>> And and the psychology of the market is just like total up on that.
42:27
credit to Grock right now.
42:29
Maybe it really is super intelligence because I I asked it should I go turbo long the market right now >> and it says deciding whether to go turbo long means using turbo warrants or similarly leveraged derivatives to bet on rising market prices requires careful consideration of your financial sit situation risk tolerance and current market conditions since turbolong refers to a high risk leverage financial product.
42:54
Uh, anyways, it breaks it down for me.
42:57
I don't think it necessarily >> Does it make a recommendation though?
43:00
>> It says, uh, not advisable for most investors. >> Okay. >> Should I ask it?
43:06
But what if I'm built different? >> Well, where?
43:13
>> He says, "Haha, love the confidence.
43:13
If you're built different and ready to roll the dice with a turbo long, let's cut through the noise and get real." Um, this is ridiculous.
43:22
Anyways, honestly, it says if you're going to do it, pick the right asset. >> Yeah. >> Which is good advice.
43:28
If you're going to invest, invest in the good companies.
43:32
>> It doesn't feel like talking to somebody.
43:34
I would expect someone with with with super intelligence to have like strong opinions.
43:37
And I feel like none of the AIs really have like >> honestly pretty sound advice.
43:43
>> So, the pro move is test your turbolong strategy on a demo account. >> Okay.
43:47
>> To see if you're as different as you think without torching real cash. >> That's good.
43:53
It does say not financial advice.
43:53
I'm going to take it as financial advice.
43:57
>> Tyler, have you been playing with Grock 4 at all? >> I have not. >> No. >> All right. Well, sign up. Sign up.
44:01
Sign up for >> What about the new web browser? >> Yeah.
44:06
So, I I'm using the Perplexity web browser. It's called Comet. >> Okay. How is it? >> It's pretty cool.
44:11
I mean, it's So, >> pitch me it.
44:14
Like, why would I use that instead of Chrome? >> Yeah.
44:17
So, I think the main thing is like it can read what's on your screen. >> Okay.
44:21
It can also like sometimes interact with stuff on your screen.
44:25
Okay, so I'm in Google Sheets right now.
44:26
I have this list of names. Yeah.
44:26
Uh, and I'm trying to get like, okay, where do these people work?
44:30
And so, first I said, >> um, just give me a list of of these people on the screen.
44:35
It >> put that into the chat.
44:38
>> And then I said, okay, where these people work? >> It gave me that.
44:40
And then it started to like load them in.
44:42
Like it would interact with the Google sheet.
44:44
It would like input them in, which is like super useful.
44:47
>> But then it kind of started breaking.
44:49
So, it's like I I think the product is like very early on still, >> but and it's also pretty slow, >> but I think this like kind of paradigm if it was if it was like super fast and like much kind of cleaner. >> Okay.
45:00
>> I think it'd be really useful.
45:01
>> So, I'm hearing like it saved you a copy paste from like copying the sheet into a different tab of like chat GPT basically.
45:09
>> Yeah, basically that's the first thing two tabs into one. >> Yeah.
45:12
How does the how does a search is like the I'm assuming the default search is perplexity? >> Yes. >> How fast is that?
45:20
>> So that's pretty quick.
45:20
Um it's just when it's like interacting with the page, it's like really slow. >> Yeah. Interesting. >> Okay. Interesting.
45:28
Um how how does it compare to Cluey?
45:30
Like the like the I don't know the the design trade-off of like new browser interacting with like only the website versus like the whole computer. >> Yeah.
45:40
Yeah, I mean I Clue is definitely more catered toward like the video call or like video input, audio input. >> Yeah.
45:47
>> Um >> it's like I I think that it's kind of different use cases because >> also more like proactive, right?
45:53
Like like I would ask you a question over Zoom. Yeah.
45:58
>> And Cluey would just hear that question and automatically query it. Yeah.
46:00
As you've been browsing around with the perplexity comet browser, has it ever just done something without you take without you being like go do a thing? >> No. No. Okay.
46:12
It's always like I prompt it, it gives me something where clearly is like you have it running and then you can you can query it, but it also will just give you stuff.
46:22
>> I feel like this is that this is that debate about like push versus pull from AI.
46:26
like if I have to if I have to tell the computer to go do something versus like it it does it preemptively for me pre proactively for me.
46:33
Um I'm thinking about like Google Chrome will do like auto translation on websites like if you land on a Spanish language website it will just be it'll just understand that you want it translated into English.
46:46
It'll translate it and then just rerender it and then it pops up a little bar at the top and then you can choose to go back to the Spanish language one if you speak Spanish I guess.
46:52
Um, and I feel like chopping down some of those like proactive ones.
46:57
And you see this with like when I go to the Wall Street Journal, they already they have an AI on their side, an LLM summary for like three bullet points from every article and they do that proactively on their side. I don't have to ask it.
47:10
So there's always this question of like where's the right place for the for the interaction to sit?
47:16
How expensive or wasteful is it just to like do that interaction on everything?
47:20
But like you could imagine a situation where the browser every time you hit a news website, it's it's prepopulating the obvious questions or the extra one layer deeper or one layer shallower.
47:33
like here's a summary of what you're reading and then here's extra context on things that are one layer deeper because when I go to a website or an article I'm usually trying to understand like give me the high level and then give me like if I went through and clicked on every person in this article and went to their Wikipedia that's usually how I browse and so I guess if it could do that a little bit faster that might be valuable.
47:56
>> Yeah, I think it'd be cool.
47:56
I mean there there's always a worry about you're basically just like have this like bar on the side that's just full of slop if it's just like summarizing yeah your page.
48:05
>> Um >> but >> yeah I also wonder about it in the context of that meter results like like uh Dwarash has a post here.
48:11
He says surely this doesn't have any implications for how I use AI and whether I'm fooling myself about how much more effective it's making my podcast prep, right?
48:20
And I think that there might be something there where it's like it's like I could just read a Wall Street Journal article here or I could pull up a Wall Street Journal article with a sidebar of like chat GPT summary and also ChatGpt extra queries to give me more data.
48:40
But at a certain point like I just have to get the information into my brain one way or another.
48:46
And so giving me like three layers of abstraction on top of it, it's like it's not necessarily improving the actual time for me to understand what's going on with buyout firms poaching young bankers.
48:58
>> The question is like it's much faster to read a great summary of something, but you're going to effect if you spend 10 seconds reading it, you're going to retain a lot less of the context and the relevant information if you just spend five minutes reading the article.
49:10
Y >> so with chat GPT like style summaries, do you just need to like spend do you still need to spend five minutes of time reading a bunch of different summaries around the same topic in order to get the same level of >> of context?
49:26
>> I think there's two things like one is that like there's just no substitute for spending a full day with a topic like reading a book and researching something and reading as much as you can about a topic, talking to people about a topic.
49:39
Like the more time that you spend on a topic, it like whether it's searching chat GPT or reading Wikipedia or reading articles or talking to people like it's just the more time you spend with something, the more information you're compressing, whether that's a ton of summaries or a ton of long form like
49:54
like there's just no substitute for like the amount of time that you put into something because if you're like you read a summary of a book that was really good and I read the full book, I'm just and I spent five hours with it and you spent one hour like I just have an advantage over you on the information. And then on the flip side, it's like
50:08
And then on the flip side, it's like there is an art to summarization.
50:09
Like the work of a great biographer is to summarize someone's life and to summarize all these conversations that they have with about all the people around that person and read all the books about that person.
50:21
And like when you think about like you know David Senra with the founders podcast like he reads the book he summarizes it but he does it in a way that is like 10 out of 10.
50:33
And I feel like all the LLMs are very like mid at stuff generally and they do and they do a very five out of ten job like uh like Dark Cash said.
50:43
>> Well, this is the crazy thing.
50:43
Uh Arer Rock on X reported yesterday that this company headway which is the number one book summary app just released a series A or sorry they just uh did a series A.
50:57
They are at 200 million of ARR growing 2x year-over-year with 30% net income. >> Yes.
51:04
>> And you would just think that that business would be getting destroyed by >> So I saw that and I was thinking about uh France Chalet had a tweet about this cholet. How do I spell France? Here we go.
51:19
uh he had a he had a post here that said uh in my personal experience with Dolingo, I found that it isn't an education app. It's a mobile game.
51:28
It's completely ineffective at teaching you languages, but it's quite entertaining and great at making you feel like you're learning.
51:34
And so I wouldn't be surprised if that company is in fact less about actually teaching you that information any faster and more just about repurposing information in an entertaining way and it's giving you some sort of value that way.
51:50
And so you're happy to pay for it because it's it's just a good way to spend your time.
51:57
And so I I wouldn't be I I wouldn't be surprised if like there's there hasn't been any massive breakthrough in how you deliver information to a human being.
52:04
Like their brain has a certain IO and you have to get the information in.
52:07
We don't just have like the Matrix where you just go now I know kung fu, right?
52:13
Um that's not what we've created. Not yet.
52:15
>> But repurposing stuff in like a fun and different format certainly seems like it has value to the tune of serious financials for that company.
52:22
And and I I I wouldn't and I would say like that that is not that is not uh that company's success is is very much independent of like actually gamechanging artificial intelligence.
52:37
It's more about the actual implementation of the app and the experience of using the app. >> Totally.
52:41
>> Anything else from uh the browser browser wars? >> Get on.
52:45
Keep >> keep uh playing around with it.
52:48
>> Keep playing around with it. >> Can you download DIA?
52:49
Yeah, download DIA and let us know which one you'd pick over those two because they're both AI browsers.
52:55
OpenAI is going to have one in maybe a couple weeks.
52:58
I think that was the Reuters reporting.
53:00
So, we'll have to try that too.
53:02
Demo all these see what is happening.
53:06
>> The the browser wars brought to you by Chromium by Google >> browsers will definitely be designed in Figma.
53:12
Think bigger, build faster.
53:12
Figma helps design and development teams build products together, get started for free.
53:17
Um uh we should read through Joe Weisenthal's um analysis because he says green shoots for the economy. I was texting with him.
53:24
I said there's so many top signals.
53:25
He said there's been top signals my entire career.
53:26
Maybe this time is different. We'll see.
53:30
He says it's not just the stock market that's booming.
53:33
There are signs that the US economy has some wind in its back right now.
53:36
And this is what was interesting about the the the the ZERP era.
53:39
Even though there was so much froth, so many overfunded companies at 100 million, 100x ARR, it didn't destroy America because the health of the consumer, the health of the core economy was actually doing pretty well.
53:56
There was just this like this tech layer on top that was extremely frothy, but the baseline of like where mortgages were, how much debt people had, defaults on car loans, all of that stuff was much much more stable than 2008.
54:12
And so we that's why we didn't go into like a depression after SVB crashed.
54:18
We just went into like what most people would call like a correction, not a depression. So that's interesting.
54:23
So Joe is breaking it down and we're going to talk to Sean Frank about this too.
54:27
Um the Amazon Prime Day sales data came out.
54:30
So I completely missed it.
54:33
Prime Day is in the summer. It's not Black Friday.
54:35
It's like the the opposite time of the year.
54:38
>> It's smart for Amazon to basically be like we're going to have two Black Fridays. >> It works.
54:42
But apparently uh Prime Day sales dropped and he says well Prime Day sales may be a worrisome signal about US economic momentum.
54:51
I want to observe the counterpoint and the fact that maybe the economy is seeing some green shoots.
54:56
But before I talk about the economy, let me talk about the market for a second.
55:01
Despite all the uncertainty and negative seeming news developments, the lines keep going up.
55:04
Trump recently announced 50% tariffs on Brazil due to the country's treatment of its former president. Nobody cares.
55:10
Trump talked about more aggressive tariffs on Japan and Korea. Barely a blip.
55:14
Maybe this maybe the story is that none of these things will have much bearing on the major market growth drivers, namely AI, so they don't matter.
55:23
Maybe the story is that Trump will cave in the end and so these headlines are just noise.
55:28
We've seen this before, but I don't really know.
55:31
Either way, >> maybe it's the panic getting off the sidelines. >> Panicans. Yeah.
55:35
I mean, they they learned their lesson if they sold at the bottom when Trump was saying like, "Don't panic. We're we're going up."
55:42
Like they they feel stung by that.
55:42
And so, you know, people learn the most recent lesson uh most recently.
55:46
Uh but either way, there's just not a lot of sensitivity in the market to all of the latest headlines.
55:53
Okay, but back to the real economy here.
55:55
Here the picture is mixed because actually some of the indicators seem to be going in a positive direction.
56:00
So, for example, initial jobless claims, number I like to track closely, have actually fallen for four straight weeks. Here's Delta Airlines.
56:08
Today, Delta Airlines is surging 15% after the company reinstated its earnings re reinstated its earnings forecast and said the demand is coming back. People are flying more.
56:16
According to tracking from Civics, which runs a massive ongoing survey online, perceptions about the economy, while still net negative, are at their highest levels in years.
56:25
Uh, and this is the chart that I think the guys were pulling up.
56:28
Uh it's a little bit hard to see because it's very wide, but um basically uh from 2017 to 2020, everyone was very optimistic about the condition of the national economy.
56:43
Through inauguration day, the tax law sign, the stock market dropped, stocks began to decline, but people were still optimistic about the economy.
56:50
And then Corona virus kind of changed everything.
56:53
There was this massive massive drop where we were hitting circuit breakers like every day for like weeks. It was terrible.
56:59
I remember it very vividly. >> We barely had sports. >> Yeah. Yeah. We barely had sports. Yeah.
57:05
The NBA cancelling was crazy. That was like the Okay. Wow.
57:07
This is really really serious.
57:09
And so >> I think everybody was looking around saying we're living through history right now and I and I actually don't like it. >> Yeah.
57:18
Everyone lost their jobs who was in like retail or any sort of service industry.
57:21
And then the NBA players lost their jobs because they like, "Yeah, you can't even play basketball."
57:24
And so, uh, it was it was a disaster.
57:26
And and since then, uh, the reporting for the last five years from this survey has been net negative basically, but it's at its highest rate in uh in basically years.
57:40
Um and so all the way through uh inauguration day still negative and and uh dropping through Russia invading Ukraine and then uh dropped after the tariff inauguration day and and the tariff announcement um but is climbing back up which Joe is highlighting is uh potential green shoots.
57:59
Um so he says yesterday the New York Fed released its latest survey of consumer expectations and it said that respondents are anticipating lower inflation, improving job prospects and and expect easier access to credit.
58:11
A big theme from a month ago was that the economy was decelerating but the Fed might hold off on rate cuts because of uncertainty about the ultimate tariff levels.
58:18
But it also seems plausible at least right now based on a little smattering of data that part of the story here is economic tailwinds.
58:26
Oh, and by the way, city's US economic surprise index, which gauges how all data is coming in relative to expectations, recently turned positive again. It's good news.
58:35
So, you know, I don't know all these top signals, it might be might be too much top signal.
58:42
Might be might be too early.
58:42
You know, we might still >> we might just be getting started. >> Yeah.
58:46
Also, City uh put on a buy rating on one of the companies that you were talking about. >> Which one? >> I forget.
58:53
one of the ones that was like was like an example of a of of a top signal. City was like buy it. I forget which one.
58:59
Uh maybe I don't know but >> let me tell you about real quick.
59:05
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59:07
Bant's trust management platform takes the manual work out of your security and compliance process and replaces it with continuous automation whether you're pursuing your first framework or managing a complex program.
59:16
So I want to have a debate >> to time time for a debate. >> Time for a debate. >> The great debate.
59:20
Shawn Magcguire versus Augustus Dico.
59:22
Good friends of the show.
59:25
Hung out with them both multiple times.
59:27
Uh very interesting PR dustups.
59:27
Y this week very very interesting how they got in the pickle that they got in the different pickles and then different strategies getting out of it and I want to compare them and see if there's any lessons from how you should handle a bunch of negative attention.
59:44
And so, uh, Augustus, we had him on the show Monday, um, was was was sort of like being attacked or cancelled, um, but by the right, by the far right, by conspiracy theorists, kind of the the the tinfoil hat right-wing crowd all around this idea that he was cloud seeding what, two days before the massive floods in Texas that wound up killing a lot of people.
1:00:10
And so, it was this very, very serious scenario. People were dead.
1:00:12
It was it was a natural disaster and he kind of was just going about his business like cloud seating.
1:00:20
Oh, someone bought it here.
1:00:22
I'm going to go deliver it.
1:00:22
I'm someone bought it there.
1:00:24
He's running his business and then he gets dragged into this thing and he has to all of a sudden >> and to be clear >> very uh fair and and good that people were asking questions, right? Like natural process. >> Yeah.
1:00:40
>> Like they question should be teach cloud seating in high school.
1:00:44
So I think >> and it's a and it's a scary topic.
1:00:49
People are gen generally kind of wary of weather modification >> whether it's from a religious angle or health reasons or chemtrails or whatever >> whatever they sort of subscribe to.
1:01:03
>> Yeah, >> I think it was right for people ask so many examples throughout history of like of like there's a technology that's great.
1:01:10
it has a promise to do X, Y, or Z.
1:01:12
And then there's like a negative side effect >> that comes out of that.
1:01:15
And so Augustus has had to he just got sucked into this because there's like this very acute story about the Texas floods and he's right there and and so he has to go explain cloud seating and what he does and make his case as aggressively as possible.
1:01:33
Shawn Magcguire on the other hand kind of waited into a debate or like a de like an argument over mom Donnie the mayor of New York in a very different world like Sean lives in California is a tech investor is not directly affected by uh by New York City politics and could have stayed out of it entirely and instead was like proactively >> he's not known for staying out of it man the man loves the debate He loves to fight.
1:02:03
Um, and so >> I think his position generally was you need to uh be vocal and loud about extremism.
1:02:12
Y >> and whether or not people believe that Zor Zoh uh >> Zoron >> Zoron Zoron >> Zohan uh Zoron >> not Zohan.
1:02:23
>> That's the Adam Sandler movie. >> Yes.
1:02:27
um whether or not people believe that mom Donnie is an extremist.
1:02:28
Personally, I've seen some of his old posts.
1:02:31
It seems like has some very extreme views.
1:02:36
>> Maybe he's changed, maybe he hasn't.
1:02:37
He's kind of gone back and forth.
1:02:37
He was saying defund the police.
1:02:39
Now he's saying he doesn't want to do that. >> He did. He did.
1:02:41
And and Sean's one of Sean's points was that uh Mom Donnie >> uh was sort of celebrating the third Antifa.
1:02:50
I believe that Sean brought up that the last antifod there was a bunch of suicide bombings.
1:02:56
It's like kind of crazy thing to >> promote.
1:03:00
But the interesting point is that is that Shawn could have if Shawn hadn't posted he no one would be talking about Shawn Magcguire, right?
1:03:09
But Augustus didn't come out and comment on anything and everyone was asking him for comment like it hit the timeline from other people.
1:03:21
Yeah, >> Shawn's crisis started with a Shawn post.
1:03:24
So it's it's a very different like inciting inciting element, >> creation versus reaction.
1:03:31
>> Yeah, something like that.
1:03:31
And so my my question is like does that necessitate a different comm strategy?
1:03:37
Because they had very different comm strategies. So what did Augustus do? He went direct, right?
1:03:44
and was posting his side and his data and his opinions and engaging with everyone that was attacking him, quote tweeting them and doing it in a way that was like slightly funny but also very serious, sharing as much data and I think very do being very diligent about like speaking their own language.
1:04:04
>> Yeah, he sees if he sees a post pop up that's going viral, he's jumping on it.
1:04:10
>> He puts it in the comments and then he also tweets it. Yeah.
1:04:11
and and then also he went direct to a lot of the big platforms. >> Yes.
1:04:17
I have a list here the critiques were coming from.
1:04:20
>> So he came on our show Monday. >> Yep.
1:04:23
>> We had a good conversation.
1:04:24
>> He did like a space that day too. >> Yep.
1:04:27
And then he proceeded to go on CNN, Fox News, Pirate Wires, Infowars, Steve Bannon, Glenn Beck, and Tim P all within the span.
1:04:36
And those are all conservative outlets basically >> while working with a bunch of other legacy media outlets to provide more.
1:04:43
>> There's a Washington Post article here now. Yeah.
1:04:44
And so he's gone across the the spectrum.
1:04:47
Um what's interesting is that Sean has not done any interviews I believe and he hasn't and he certainly hasn't like reached across the aisle to his attackers and said like I'm going to engage with you.
1:05:01
And maybe that's the right move. I don't know. >> I don't know.
1:05:04
I mean, I think he's been engaging over and over.
1:05:08
>> I don't think he commented on that Wall Street Journal article.
1:05:11
>> No, I'm not saying he wasn't doing he wasn't taking the the sort of traditional media approach, but he's been very active and engaging >> uh with people bringing up saying, "Hey, like basically the key point, the key issue was the >> definition of Islamist."
1:05:25
Many people saw that and thought he was putting all Muslims in a bucket. >> Yeah.
1:05:31
his his um intention and approach was to uh point out extremism. >> Yeah. >> Islamist extremism.
1:05:39
Um and uh and I think that just got like often times in a in a in a post context is lost.
1:05:45
And um so he was basically like trying to set the record straight.
1:05:52
also did a a 30 minute um like a 30 minute video talking through kind of um the the the original post and some of the reactions to it. >> Yeah.
1:06:03
So it it for me it highlights like the two different styles of going direct.
1:06:09
>> There's going direct where you control 100% of the channel that your content is going out on. So it's your ex account.
1:06:18
It's a video that you create and you upload.
1:06:20
It's a post that you write.
1:06:20
And then there's going direct where you're not sending a you're not sending a liaison to CNN, but you are going on CNN.
1:06:31
And that's and and so Augustus did this interesting thing where like he definitely like went direct, but he also he also did all of the legacy media stuff.
1:06:40
Like Fox News is legacy media.
1:06:43
CNN is like legacy media and not in the traditional going direct playbook, but there's like this evolution and and I think it's risky.
1:06:50
Like it is risky to go into someone else's platform.
1:06:53
You go on Infowars, it's going to have a certain aesthetic.
1:06:56
You go on CNN, they might ask you some really hard question that you're not prepared for.
1:06:59
They might try and make you look bad.
1:07:00
Like this was the this was the narrative around these like around the whole move of of like just go direct.
1:07:06
Don't talk to the press directly.
1:07:07
Don't let them tell your story. Tell your own story. Well, he's doing both.
1:07:10
And it's interesting because it feels like it's working for Augustus.
1:07:14
Like it feels like he handled this pretty well.
1:07:15
I would give him I would give him a lot of credit.
1:07:17
Um, with Shawn, it's interesting.
1:07:19
He did send out there there have been a few surrogates.
1:07:23
So, uh, Joe Lale >> went on TV and and defended it and and kind of explained it, but Shawn didn't.
1:07:31
Um, and I think that I think these both might be good strategies.
1:07:33
I'm not really like, oh, you know, there's a one-sizefits-all here.
1:07:37
They're very different situations. >> Yeah.
1:07:39
Phil Aman came out in support of Shawn.
1:07:42
Uh there was a great post from Pat Grady Sequa partner.
1:07:44
Uh Pat said yesterday, "This tweet expresses a personal view.
1:07:49
I'm not very vocal on Twitter and I'm sure this tweet will piss people off.
1:07:52
If you're looking for drama, this is probably not it.
1:07:54
This will be very disappointing to people with extreme views of any kind."
1:07:57
And that's sort of the point.
1:07:59
The purpose of this tweet is twofold.
1:08:01
To express my support for the Muslim community and to express my support for my partner Shawn McGuire.
1:08:06
Uh Pat says, "Some of my best friends are Muslim.
1:08:08
They are warm, kind, wonderful people. I love them like family.
1:08:12
They are feeling fear right now.
1:08:14
Fear for the safety of their families.
1:08:15
This is not hypothetical.
1:08:15
These are real people, loving parents, and their sweet children who aren't sure if they can live here anymore."
1:08:20
He goes on to say, "Some of my best friends are Jewish.
1:08:24
They are warm, kind, wonderful people. I love them like family.
1:08:26
They too have felt their fair share of fear over and over again for generations.
1:08:29
This is not the experience any American of any background should have in this country.
1:08:35
This is not what made America the greatest country on earth.
1:08:36
Muslims are not the enemy. Jews are not the enemy.
1:08:40
Extremists are the enemy.
1:08:40
And when we let them sew the seeds of fear, fear of the other, we are letting them win.
1:08:44
So basically goes on to say that um this is uh really not about uh different uh different cultures and people.
1:08:54
It's more about um kind of uh >> Yeah.
1:08:58
Long story short, you don't want to let the extremists win. >> Yeah.
1:09:03
or like put you in the bucket of extremists. >> Yep.
1:09:08
So anyways, interesting interesting response.
1:09:09
Both both of them are not um you know these will be ongoing.
1:09:12
you know these will be ongoing. I wonder I wonder what the takeaway is for like with with Rain Maker like the core claim of the controversy was directly about Rain Makaker's business and essentially it was in many ways existential to Rain Maker because there's like proposed bans of the technology right and then there's also just the question of like should cloud seating be done at all or not right and that was like the vibe online was like
1:09:44
they were that was the where the debate was whereas people are not debating like should SEOA invest in tech companies right it's like a completely separate thing and so maybe it does merit like a different approach in terms of like PR management
1:10:02
>> I don't know I think they both handled it well I don't know that I would recommend anything differently I'm just wondering if that I guess the big question is like like When should when should you step outside your core competency? >> I think it's interesting to think about
1:10:18
>> I think it's interesting to think about um reach with these two strategies.
1:10:20
I would imagine that Sean has actually had more like reach like actual eyeballs on his content. >> Interesting.
1:10:30
>> Um just kind of estimating based on how viral some of his posts have gone, I would assume he's gotten 50 million views on his posts this week.
1:10:37
Like a really really crazy number.
1:10:40
and Augustus has gone on all these different platforms, but I imagine the actual reach is far lower when you add, you know, if you go on if you go on Fox News on some random show, there might be a 100,000 people that watch that segment. >> Yeah.
1:10:58
But maybe that's better because like the people like with with Shawn like he's trying to he's trying to fight back against something that's like a general vibe or a general accusation of a bad vibe which is like Islamophobia, right?
1:11:12
Whereas Augustus is trying to fight against like very precise, you know, push back against his exact company and like the work that he's doing precisely.
1:11:23
And so if I'm thinking about like who is Shawn talking to, he's talking to like the broad audience of like people that perceive him as a person in tech. >> Yeah.
1:11:34
>> And if I think about Augustus, he's thinking about like >> how do I save weather modification as an industry in the country. >> Totally.
1:11:41
like specific regulators, specific uh politicians and specific like and also like the local people in who live down the street from the farmer who's going to pay for cloud seating who might go to their you know city council meeting and say not in my backyard.
1:11:57
So, it's like it's people that are I I I feel like the the push back against Shawn was very like broad and just like bad tech guy vibes like like just like negative broadly on the left and the folks that support Mum Donnie.
1:12:14
They all like kind of just broadly don't like Shawn right now because of what he said.
1:12:21
With Augustus, it's like there are a few people who were completely animated by the theory that he was responsible for the floods and so he had to address them really deeply.
1:12:31
>> He's defending his business, his industry, his actions. >> Yeah.
1:12:36
The question for me is like is like there there are times when someone who when someone needs to like step up or stand up outside of their core business.
1:12:46
And this kind of bridges to the Brian Armstrong piece at Coinbase about being like missiondriven which was basically like coin in that context it was like Coinbase is not going to be commenting on all of the current things that are happening in the world um all the different politics like we are going to be focused on stuff that's related to crypto >> and and that was really wellreceived.
1:13:10
Then the question is like for venture capitalists should they only step up and start talking about politics when it's like a ban on an important technology or a change to the way you know carried interest is handled or should they go as far as to say you know what like I care about what's happening in New York City even though I don't live there. >> Yeah. >> I don't know.
1:13:33
I think that's like it's certainly like it's certainly like the riskiest.
1:13:37
You're like you're you're you're the furthest away from something where you'll immediately have everyone in your industry rally around you or everyone in your because it's like well this is very core to their business.
1:13:46
But at the same time it's like you know there there is some value to just being like >> this this is less of just like an investor.
1:13:53
investor. this is just like a person and they have opinions about everything and so I'm interested to talk to them and work with them because I and it also I mean in the original post like he he did throw up a massive flag that was just like I'm pro capitalist that's pro America right and so the question of
1:14:09
like does this hurt Sequoia I think we were talking about this earlier it's like >> no because the people that were really bothered by this or like didn't get through this nuance and understand the pack response and understand him unpacking it like probably were not in going to be in the Sequoia portfolio, right? >> So, I don't know. Yeah. Anyway, let me >> So, I don't know. Yeah.
1:14:26
Anyway, let me tell you about linear.
1:14:28
Linear is a purpose-built tool for planning and building products.
1:14:31
Meet the system for modern software development, streamline issues, projects, and product road mapaps. Go to linear. io.
1:14:38
>> Get your golden retriever set up on linear.
1:14:40
It's one of the greatest gifts that you give them.
1:14:43
>> Um, what else is in the timeline we should go through?
1:14:46
There's there's so many good stories.
1:14:47
We should go through this uh this story in the mansion section. Let's do that. There we go.
1:14:52
Finally, >> there's a bunch of stuff.
1:14:53
Um, >> the California ranch is for sale for about 50 million. >> I I really like this.
1:14:59
There were two there were two very interesting houses in the mansion section uh today and they're both being sold by tech founders who I've never heard of and some of them don't one of them doesn't exist online.
1:15:15
So this guy Don, tech entrepreneur Don McKini found himself at a crossroads in 2014 after four consecutive startups. Crazy.
1:15:23
Uh including one that sold to Lucent Technology for billions of dollars.
1:15:28
>> I give him permission to call himself a serial entrepreneur. >> He's the dawn.
1:15:32
>> If you started four companies and you sold one for a billion, you can put serial entrepreneur in your bio. >> Billions. Billions. >> Yeah.
1:15:38
I need to figure out exactly the whole deal here.
1:15:40
I think this is uh Yeah, they have it here.
1:15:42
So, uh, so he he he basically instead of doing another business, he basically retired and started building a crazy house. He chose the latter.
1:15:49
He purchased roughly 1,100 acres of ranch space in Soma, California for 12 million and painstakingly restored it, spending 33 million over the years.
1:16:01
Now, McKini is looking to sell the ranch, which has multiple residences, two lakes, four green houses, and a custom wood shop for around 50 million known as Soma Summer R Summit Ranch.
1:16:12
The ranch is perched at the top of Soma Mountain about an hour from San Francisco.
1:16:17
That is prime primary >> great great option for a you know a GP at a platform fund that wants to maintain proximity.
1:16:25
I was about to say, you know, is it really worth spending half of your bonus as an AI researcher on one house? Yeah.
1:16:35
>> Or is that a full bonus post tax? >> Oh, yeah. That's a good point.
1:16:40
>> That's some ordinary income right there.
1:16:42
>> That's that's really really rough.
1:16:44
Anyway, um uh >> a Florida native, McKenna started his tech career in Silicon Valley in the 1980s as a founding vice president.
1:16:52
Let's give it up for all the vice presidents out there >> of sales at Silicon Graphics.
1:16:56
>> That was a story firm. >> Worked on 3D imaging.
1:16:58
In 1991, he founded international network services. Fantastic name.
1:17:03
Which was acquired by Lucent in 1999 for 3. 7 billion. >> 1999 selling.
1:17:10
>> What are you doing, buddy?
1:17:11
>> I mean, I think he sell I think he I think he timed it perfect.
1:17:15
>> Hold on to that stock for two more years.
1:17:17
>> International network services.
1:17:17
They don't make they don't make >> they don't name companies like this.
1:17:22
>> I mean, actually, they do now.
1:17:22
People are bringing it back.
1:17:23
What was the company we talked about earlier this week that was like >> it was um Wisconsin or >> Oh, yeah.
1:17:29
Well, that was just a fan writing in. >> Yeah.
1:17:32
No, but it's real company. >> Yeah. Yeah.
1:17:33
Real real company, but not like hyped company. >> Soon to be hyped. >> Soon to be hyped. Yeah. Maybe. Maybe. Yeah. Let's look at this.
1:17:39
>> By the mid200s, McKini, a conservation advocate, was looking for a ranch to preserve when he heard about an available thousand acre ranch that had been owned by a single family for years. Wow.
1:17:48
By sheer coincidence, McKenna, an avid fisherman, had caught a 1,119 lb marlin. Oh.
1:17:54
Oh, so I have to actually I have to correct this.
1:17:56
So the the ranch was 1,119 acres, >> and by coincidence, he had caught a 1,00 >> No way.
1:18:04
>> 119 pound marlin in a fishing tournament a few years earlier.
1:18:07
He took the parallel as a sign and bought the property.
1:18:11
>> What's the biggest fish you've ever caught?
1:18:14
>> I I've never been big into that world.
1:18:16
No, >> I've ne I don't think I've actually ever >> I've caught 150 lb halibit in Alaska. >> There we go.
1:18:21
>> And I did it when I was a kid.
1:18:21
It weighed more than me at the time. >> Wow.
1:18:24
>> It was the biggest like boost to my ego of all time.
1:18:27
I conquered an animal that was bigger than me.
1:18:30
>> Every person should do that at least once >> for sure. >> I got to do that. >> A,000 pound marlin.
1:18:34
That is a huge huge fish.
1:18:37
>> So the ranch hadn't been touched in years.
1:18:38
McKenna said he relished the opportunity to dig in.
1:18:40
After tackling the ranch infrastructure, he turned to the main house, originally built in the 1950s.
1:18:45
Many windows didn't close.
1:18:45
It was not clear where the front door was located.
1:18:49
He took the roughly 4,240 foot square house down to the studs and rebuilt it.
1:18:55
One by one, he rebuilt the other outbuildings, he said, including the circa 1930s cottage and a horse barn, which is now a party barn. >> There we go. >> Let's go.
1:19:03
Uh, a skilled woodworker.
1:19:03
He also added a 5,200 >> skilled woodworker.
1:19:09
>> He's just building his own. This is legend.
1:19:12
>> This is like the dream.
1:19:13
>> Well, so the interesting thing here, the interesting thing here, he bought this property >> uh when >> So he bought the property in the mid 2000s.
1:19:24
>> Was it 2014 or the mid200s? >> Oh.
1:19:26
Uh I guess he started working on the on the uh >> the remodel. >> The remodel. Yeah.
1:19:31
>> So he's $45 million into this property, selling it for 50, but he bought it in the mid 2000s. Yeah.
1:19:36
the mid 2000s. Yeah. So on paper >> probably >> not the best return but memories are probably >> fantastic time with >> returns on >> he also has a home in the Bahamas memories >> uh and uh he is selling so he and his partner have more time and resources to
1:19:54
devote to philanthropy we can't uh we wait until uh why wait until we kick off and then have our estate dole it out he said let's participate now that's great >> uh the market for prime ranches is strong thanks to liquidity among other high net worth buyers. Probably those AI
1:20:07
Probably those AI researchers unironically.
1:20:09
Uh there's a lot of people hedging in land. Yeah.
1:20:11
You know, if you're worried about the top signals, buy some land. >> Buy a ranch.
1:20:18
>> Anyway, um get on numeral too. Numeralhq. com. Sales tax on autopilot.
1:20:23
Spend less than five minutes per month on sales tax compliance.
1:20:24
Um so there's another there's another story in the >> compliance platform of John Kugan. >> It is. I use it.
1:20:30
Uh there's another tech person who has a $50 million home or just slightly under 49 uh 49. 5 million.
1:20:39
This is an 8,000 square foot 9-bedroom home with a tennis court and a pool.
1:20:42
Uh and you're going to you're going to love this.
1:20:45
I don't think you've read this yet. >> Not yet.
1:20:47
>> Okay, I'm going to blow your mind.
1:20:47
So, uh a circa 1930s estate just a few houses from the Playboy Mansion in Los Angeles is coming on the market for 49. 5 million.
1:20:56
The roughly 8,000q foot 9-bedroom estate was the longtime home of the late inventor Ronald Katz and his wife Maline Cats.
1:21:03
Ronald was best known for a series of patents that revolutionized automated customer service and telephones and for making breakthroughs in credit card technology built around >> so if I'm hearing this correctly sort of sort of like AI agents for >> Exactly. Exactly.
1:21:22
>> Sort of like you know a vintage version of Finn. Yes. Yes.
1:21:25
Uh the I mean I'm I'm very excited to be hanging out with OWN in a few years.
1:21:32
Uh hopefully he's patented Finn Finn.
1:21:35
AI the number one AI agent for customer service.
1:21:39
Number one in performance benchmarks, number one in competitive bake offs, number one ranking on G2.
1:21:42
Um but yes, so this guy has a whole uh Wikipedia page that we can pull up.
1:21:47
Uh we're looking for uh Ronald Catz.
1:21:49
I think I have it in here somewhere. Let me see.
1:21:51
They got so so much stuff here.
1:21:54
Ronald, >> we're we're not getting through any of this. Uh, where is it? Ronald Cats. Okay, Ronald Cats. Yes.
1:21:59
So, um, his inventions are primarily in the field of automated call center technology.
1:22:03
Um, he has more than 50 patents covering his innovations. Patents.
1:22:08
I know so many people who have like generational wealth from patents. It's crazy.
1:22:13
And it just seems like it's something that just doesn't exist anymore. It's a lost art. Uh, toll-free numbers.
1:22:20
>> We don't know how to patent in this country anymore.
1:22:22
>> We don't know how to patent.
1:22:22
We It's completely a lost art.
1:22:24
Actually, the the person who bought my first company uh was a patent guy.
1:22:28
He w he went to college and studied like chemical engineering and built a bunch of patents for like lubricating petroleum as it flows through oil pipelines and he came up with some chemist patented it and then he was like, "Yeah, in college I was getting like a 100k a month from licensing my patents or something like that." Like sick. >> Yeah.
1:22:50
There was a time when it when it seemed like the play was to develop technology, patent it and license it out to companies.
1:22:58
>> And then now if an entrepreneur comes to you with an idea, >> it's a bad signal >> and they say, yeah, like I'm working on patents, it it almost always is a huge bear signal.
1:23:09
It's like >> it is such a lost art.
1:23:10
We don't >> develop something and then capitalize on it yourself. >> Yeah.
1:23:15
>> Yeah. because it is like that you can you can definitely if you get it right you can make a lot more money from >> delivering the technology or whatever it is >> uh via your own product and c capturing that incremental margin but >> yeah it's interesting because the uh
1:23:32
you'd think that the passive income bros would be super into patents right they'd be like just become the world expert in a certain field get a PhD in it spend 10 years researching the frontier and then develop an innovation, patent it, and then just cash flow free, you know, lifestyle forever. >> I do have one I do have one friend that
1:23:51
>> I do have one I do have one friend that had something like this where he developed this uh supplement and effectively licensed it to a company and was has just been getting millions of dollars a year for his for coming up on like 15 years.
1:24:07
>> Did I tell you I have a patent? >> A big patent guy. Maybe it's not a patent.
1:24:10
I don't make any like cash off of it though.
1:24:12
But I have a patent for breakers. The capsule. I can hear that.
1:24:17
I don't even have the IM. I can hear you.
1:24:19
Um, yeah, I have a patent on the capsule pouch.
1:24:22
The capsule nicotine pouch.
1:24:23
It's >> fantastic innovation.
1:24:25
>> Invented John Kugan the inventor. I love it.
1:24:27
Anyway, >> Marro, uh, not quite, uh, not quite the portfolio of Ronald Katz.
1:24:31
I'll take you through a little bit of his history. It's interesting.
1:24:35
So born 1936 in uh 1961 he co-founded Tele Credit with Robert Goldman.
1:24:41
It was the first company to enable merchants to verify consumer checks over the phone using an automated system without the assistance of a live operator.
1:24:52
So it's this is 61 61 like totally pre- internet.
1:24:57
Someone says I'm going to write you a check.
1:25:00
How do you verify that they that they have it?
1:25:01
You have to call the company and say, "Do they have money?"
1:25:09
>> It's an agentic workflow. >> It is an agentic.
1:25:10
It literally is because it cut out the live operator that was the telephone operator.
1:25:14
It's actually an agentic workflow. You're 100% right.
1:25:17
I know you're joking, but it's true.
1:25:19
And so, in 1988, he forms a partnership with AMX to provide call processing services.
1:25:23
That partnership later became First Data Corporation.
1:25:26
And so, uh, he founded Ronald Catz Technology Licensing.
1:25:30
And I I feel like First Data, Isn't First Data Huge?
1:25:36
>> First data is the is the is the layer below Stripe, right?
1:25:41
>> I'm pretty sure >> there's a layer below Stripe.
1:25:45
>> Yeah, I'm pretty sure Stripe is uses uh uses First Data for acquisition of credit cards.
1:25:50
And I'm I'm pretty sure it's the first processor of Visa and Mastercard.
1:25:54
Um and so I I don't know if they use that might be misinformation.
1:25:58
And I I don't know if if Stripe uses First Data still, but I remember that like there is a lower level below Stripe and uh and First Data was like one of those, but Ronald Catz, where where was this founded? Yeah, Nebraska.
1:26:13
So he so cats gets in there.
1:26:16
Anyway, um he also had the patent portfolio that for companies using automated call centers, over 150 companies have taken a license to patents.
1:26:24
uh the technology licensing company that he has earned approximately a billion dollars in license fees such as suing accused infringers who take a license.
1:26:34
Uh he also founded Telibire LLC, a privately held company that commercializes inventions he made relating to electronic commerce and networkbased monitoring systems.
1:26:42
In the early 90s, CZ developed a computer-controlled video system for monitoring remote remote locations and an advanced scheduling and routing system for telephone and video communications.
1:26:51
Catch levers his knowledge and work in these areas to create an electronic commerce system to help businesses reach customers in remote locations.
1:27:01
>> I love I love all these words. >> B2B SAS founder. Absolutely insane. It's wild.
1:27:07
So anyway, his house is on the market.
1:27:08
Um it was built around the same time as the Playboy Mansion.
1:27:11
It uh the home resembles an English country house with tennis court and pool.
1:27:15
It sits on roughly one and a half acres in Home Hills overlooking the Los Angeles Country Club on Mapleton Drive, one of LA's most storied streets.
1:27:23
It's also adjacent to Spelling Mansion.
1:27:25
You know, Spelling Manor >> Spelling Manor.
1:27:28
Have you ever heard of this? Aaron Spelling. He was a big uh TV guy.
1:27:32
He made and he built the largest home in Los Angeles, something like hund00 million.
1:27:36
It had a It had a dedicated room for present wrapping >> because you're gonna wrap so many presents at that level.
1:27:44
Like there are levels to this for sure.
1:27:46
Like oh actually when I moved into my my one of my first apartments I got like when we started making money young I I moved into like a it was like a studio apartment.
1:27:58
It was nice but it was it had no walls or anything because it was like open floor plan because it was just a studio and I'm just one guy.
1:28:05
Uh, and and I had a uh I had there was room for a there was room for a a washer dryer, but I didn't have a washerd dryer cuz we like send out the You made it a present.
1:28:15
>> I made it a present wrapping station and I put a little table there and you could like work from it, but it was like in the bathroom and I was like this is my version of a present wrapping room. >> Spelling. >> Yeah.
1:28:24
It's like I'm I'm I'm uh I'm aesthetically in living in spelling manner.
1:28:28
Um, so the cats has spent years renovating the estate before moving. Uh, normal story here.
1:28:34
The couple filled the home with art and collectibles from around the world.
1:28:38
The game room includes antique billboards, billiards table, and vintage arcade games.
1:28:41
Also on display was Meline's collection of pigs, stuffed animals, ornaments, sculptures, and paintings.
1:28:48
It became it it started with just a few pigs and grew to become her thing to friends and family.
1:28:53
Uh, kept adding to the trope.
1:28:56
The family plans to auction much of the home's contents.
1:28:58
Uh, have you heard about this?
1:29:00
The uh and what's it called?
1:29:02
It's like it's like the elephant problem or the giraffe problem.
1:29:05
There's there's a name for it where where you make golden retrievers your thing and then everyone's like, "Oh, what should we get you? Oh, you like pigs."
1:29:12
And then it snowballs and then everyone gets you so many that over 20 or 30 years you develop like this massive collection of trinkets.
1:29:19
>> For you it might be horse accessories.
1:29:19
I got you those horse electrolytes.
1:29:21
You can get just more and more supplements.
1:29:25
>> You're not the first person to get me horse stuff.
1:29:26
I told you David used to get me mane and tail the horse shampoo just as a joke because I'm built like a horse I guess he thought it was very funny. >> He loved it. >> That's great.
1:29:39
>> So yeah maybe may maybe something by the way is really into the the horsepower metaphor.
1:29:45
You know he he he he's like obsessed with horses and stuff.
1:29:47
You know everyone's got to have a brand.
1:29:49
Anyway, what were we saying?
1:29:52
>> Oh I said nice new haircut.
1:29:53
>> Oh yeah thank horse could never.
1:29:55
The horse hair is strong.
1:29:56
It was breaking the scissors.
1:29:56
Uh we broke multiple pairs, but we did get it cut. It's thick.
1:30:00
It's thick hair over here.
1:30:02
Um but you know who else has like the the what's it called?
1:30:04
It's like the grandma elephant problem or whatever.
1:30:06
Uh this this woman who has this house has like an insane collection of pigs because she started collecting pigs.
1:30:15
Everyone gave her pig stuff.
1:30:15
Uh, somebody said that Peter Teal has the same thing with Tolken, >> where he named a few companies after Tolken and now everyone's like, "Everything you do must be Tolken referenced.
1:30:25
Like, if you are at all involved or whatever, like I'm getting you another copy of Tolken and and and like, you know, this person was kind of commenting like, you know, like he might not watch the movie every night, you know, he might just be like generally a fan of that and then also a fan of other things.
1:30:42
Yeah, but you can be a fan of >> but people tend to collapse the meme around you down to just like, oh, you're you're not just you're not just into Tolken and other things.
1:30:51
You're like the premier collector of Tolken stuff.
1:30:55
>> So, anyway, other news, we have a post from uh >> brother Reggie James has been on the show before.
1:31:02
He says, "I need TBPN to bring back Cougar Night at the Rosewood." >> Has it gone anywhere?
1:31:08
Someone needs if you're in Silicon Valley, go to the Rosewood and report.
1:31:13
>> We got to ask we got to ask Pranking for exits because he might be aware.
1:31:14
He gives some good coverage on height.
1:31:16
gives some good coverage on height. Um, but uh we were when we were at the Rosewood uh for Y staying there the night before YC demo day, you remember overhearing this like the most the most uh there was there was a a a man and a woman like a table away from us having
1:31:34
the most deranged conversation, the most rosewood coded conversation of all time where I think she was divorced or going through divorce talking about like breaking down loudly breaking down their entire financial situation >> and being like
1:31:53
>> basically like I'm good because we have Carrie in this fund that's that's definitely going to hit in the next >> Never have I wanted Clear View AI more familiar with Clear View AI >> like the software to identify >> yeah you take a picture of someone and it scans the internet it tells you
1:32:09
immediately who they are and it's like very controversial and people are like oh this is like you know total like surveillance state stuff but I would have loved to know who what VC she was talking about because it was an absolute mess. There was other stuff. There was other stuff.
1:32:22
>> Oh yeah, I've been checking our credit card and we're just seeing like direct every night >> in every city. >> Absolutely wild.
1:32:30
Well, Ryan has a good story here responding to Reggie's post.
1:32:34
It says, "One time in 2012, my co-founder and I crashed and burned so hard in a pitch on Sand Hill, the partners wrapped with, look, it's it's cougar night.
1:32:42
You guys would actually do pretty well there.
1:32:47
So that's the beauty of Sand Hill Road.
1:32:49
You could crash and burn.
1:32:51
>> I don't even get this. I don't get this post.
1:32:52
Like why why would they do well if they're >> Well, like maybe maybe like they're just >> crashed and burned. Oh. Oh. Oh. Oh.
1:32:56
Like the company has crashed and burned or something.
1:33:00
>> No, they they didn't do well on the pitch.
1:33:02
>> So he's like you can marry Rich.
1:33:04
>> Yeah, >> that's what he's saying. Okay, got it. That's hilarious. >> Couple of studs.
1:33:08
Head over to head over to the Roadwood. Rosewood.
1:33:12
>> Anyway, underrated strategy. Go to the roadwood.
1:33:14
Go to the Rosewood, talk to the Cougars, sell them your product.
1:33:16
If you're an SDR, yeah, >> just go and pull out Adio Custom Relationship Magic. >> Adio CRM.
1:33:27
>> Having Adio on deck for cougar night is crazy.
1:33:30
>> Do you keep the cougars in the CRM or No, >> but but they're potential like leads, right? >> Yeah, for sure.
1:33:36
If you're selling to a VC and there's a cougar there who's who's maybe maybe you could sell SAS to that VC and it would reinspire him to to grind harder and save the relationship.
1:33:47
>> Save the relationship. >> It's possible.
1:33:48
Anything anything could happen.
1:33:50
>> Anything could happen.
1:33:51
>> Nothing like like the joy of implementing a new B2B SAS product in your workflow in your everyday workflow.
1:33:56
If you do that, that could just reinvigorate your entire life. >> Yeah.
1:34:00
You're just at cougar night. >> Yeah.
1:34:02
just can't stop talking to the cougars about agentic workflows. >> Yeah.
1:34:08
>> For for saving your marriage.
1:34:10
>> No, you're just like, why would I want to go on a bender and go to Nou when I could be uh you know, grinding.
1:34:13
I' I've been reinvigorated.
1:34:17
>> Many people are saying that.
1:34:18
>> Well, you know, we talked about the top signals.
1:34:20
Whether you're whether you're long, whether you're short, you make your own decision.
1:34:22
You make you do your own research. Um then go express. com.
1:34:28
Investing for those that take it seriously.
1:34:29
multi-asset investing, industry leading yields, trusted by millions.
1:34:32
Let's talk about the VW bus.
1:34:34
We got to talk about >> Dylan Parker from moment yesterday talking about his fixed he he raised a series B for his fixed income >> uh platform and he mentioned that uh they power public's fixed income. So >> very cool.
1:34:49
>> Uh let's talk about the VW bus.
1:34:50
>> So the electric bus uh the Wall Street Journal claims that it is a failure.
1:34:55
We're going to figure it out.
1:34:55
How Volkswagen's electric bus went from American flagship to flop.
1:34:58
The German company's hyped reboot of its iconic vintage van has been stunted by a luxury price tag.
1:35:05
Trump's trade war in an embarrassing recall.
1:35:07
And so this Wall Street Journal article goes through the the the kind of story of the ID buzz, the new uh >> buzz >> crazy name.
1:35:17
We should talk about so much here.
1:35:20
I mean, first off is like I do not understand why a change in the powertrain requires a new brand name, a new subbrand name for a product.
1:35:30
It should be like >> in my opinion >> shows lack of conviction. >> Yeah.
1:35:37
Like I mean BMW is doing this with like the i4 instead of the instead of the the the 54 535i.
1:35:46
the i5 is going to be the electric one.
1:35:50
And it just is >> we know somebody we know somebody that uh if they if BMW were to touch the M series, they would make Jan 6 look like a children's birthday party.
1:36:01
>> They'd be very upset about that.
1:36:01
But uh so it was always confusing.
1:36:05
Why didn't they just bring it back as like the bus and now you can get it with an electric powertrain?
1:36:09
Um, but then also it's like this fun, kitschy, nostalgic vehicle.
1:36:16
And what was the price tag on this thing?
1:36:19
It was like 70,000 or something like that. So much money. Yes.
1:36:21
See, so uh even before the recall, the luxury sticker price of the ID Buzz, which starts at about $60,000, kept a break on sales as consumers piv pivoted to more affordable wheels.
1:36:33
in the US where the vehicle became available toward the end of uh last year.
1:36:37
Just over 3,000 had been shipped to dealers by the end of March and then there was a slowdown in EV sales.
1:36:42
The tax credits are going away and President Trump's tariffs have caught automakers offguard. Very, very rough. Um, yeah.
1:36:48
So, in Dallas, European car enthusiast and part supplier Audrey McVicker said he was dead set on getting the buzz until his dealer told him that the Palmelo yellow and white version he had his eye on would cost around $72,000.
1:37:05
Far more than he expected.
1:37:05
Yeah, this feels like, you know, premium SUV territory.
1:37:10
So, 45K, 50K, maybe 55K, 72 feels crazy for this.
1:37:19
and and it seemed like I don't know why they couldn't get the price down.
1:37:21
Do you think it's something to do with just the actual manufacturing complexities of electric vehicles?
1:37:29
Because Elon is able to sell a car that's similarly capable, although the Model Y has way more range and and features.
1:37:37
And so it's hard to go up against the if you're if you're comparing the the Buzz to the Model Y in a spreadsheet, you're going to get, okay, Buzz is like cool and different looking, >> but am I really willing to sacrifice so many features and pay twice as much?
1:37:56
>> Yeah, it is interesting.
1:37:56
I'm seeing a uh original 1973 Volkswagen bus. >> Yeah.
1:38:03
>> It's for sale for $65,000.
1:38:06
It's got 85,000 miles on it, so it's seen a lot.
1:38:10
But it's possible that, you know, who knows what what went into kind of pricing it, but they might have said, "Hey, we're making this bus like for that category that wants just kind of like a fun leisure vehicle.
1:38:22
It's not super functional.
1:38:25
You're not going to drive it to the snow.
1:38:26
You're not You're maybe driving it around town, going to the beach, things like that.
1:38:30
But it doesn't feel like a it just doesn't look like a car that somebody's gonna daily. Yeah.
1:38:36
>> And that feels like a huge problem.
1:38:36
If it's 65k, the average American >> might I I don't know.
1:38:41
I probably shouldn't say the average American, but but middle class family might say, "Hey, let's get the Volkswagen bus as our daily family car, but it doesn't it just looks kind of funky and loud."
1:38:53
And I >> it just sticks out.
1:38:57
I mean, so, so in this article, they say that uh the IDBuzz in Germany, like the the spokesman said that it was designed to be a Halo car, like a Halo product, which is it sounds funny when you compare it to like the Audi R8, of course, but uh they said the goal is to bring drivers to showrooms, and they're not really planning to sell in great numbers.
1:39:17
So, you're like, "Oh, that Buzz just does look different.
1:39:19
when I go to get my next car, I should I'm just sick of having like the same plain white SUV that looks like everything else.
1:39:26
But then you go in and you're like, "Wait, how much is it?"
1:39:30
And and is it really that much better than features against the with a VW Atlas, I guess, is their is their full size SUV.
1:39:36
And so you walk out of there with an Atlas, which is probably around 5560, I guess.
1:39:40
Um, I actually don't know where >> you can get an Audi Q8, which is feels much more like a premium product for the same price. >> Yeah.
1:39:52
>> So, and it and it's just a lot more functional.
1:39:55
And >> how much did that that Colinin sell for on Cars and Vids that was like it had like 200,000 miles?
1:40:00
Did you >> The one that the one that we were recommending people get as like a a call booth for their office.
1:40:06
>> Wait, we were recommending that? I don't remember that. >> Probably.
1:40:08
I mean, we broadly were recommending, you know, picking up an old Continental GT instead of a instead of a phone booth. >> Yeah. Okay.
1:40:15
So, so a Rolls-Royce Cullinin black badge 2020, so it's only 5 years old. Uh, sold for $170,000.
1:40:25
Just barely twice the price of the ID Buzz, but it has $114,000 on it. Can you imagine?
1:40:30
Can you imagine putting 114,000 miles on a Rolls-Royce Cullinin in in in five years? >> I can. I would love to. >> I would love to.
1:40:40
I mean, that's that's so so many miles.
1:40:43
Um but but people were debating this saying like, "Okay, yeah, if you're if you're going if you're putting that many miles, like it has to be highway miles, so they're not hard miles.
1:40:53
Like, it's probably fine."
1:40:53
like uh and and Rolls-Royce, you know, has a bad reputation as being like, you know, in the shop all the time, but if it made it this far, like maybe it'll make it another 100 thousand miles and it like actually stays in good condition.
1:41:04
So maybe it was the steel of a century at 170. Who knows?
1:41:07
Could have been bombing around in a in a Rolls-Royce Cullinin.
1:41:12
Um, anything else on the VW bus thing?
1:41:16
>> I still think it's I just think it's it's it is it is hard that they priced it so high.
1:41:21
Um maybe maybe the opportunity is more like like like like Tesla just needs more different trim levels but then needs to bring the manufacturing prowess to deliver things at more affordable prices because like how different is the world if the Cybert truck is cheaper? Does it even need to be?
1:41:43
Should it stay up there and be this halo car? >> Yeah. Yeah.
1:41:45
The interesting thing as somebody who lives I live in Malibu.
1:41:51
Yeah, >> I bought a Mercedes Metress because I wanted like a a family van, something I could drive around surfing with, etc.
1:42:00
>> And I have zero interest in the Volkswagen electric bus.
1:42:01
Uh, and that's that's an issue.
1:42:04
The other thing is >> if I was thinking about a car, if I wanted like if if I wanted a surf >> like a car just to like trash and take to the beach and take surfing, you can get a Raptor for like 70. Raptor is such a funny.
1:42:18
>> It's like obviously very different, but if you're a dad that wants like a a kind of a car you can like beat up and do a lot of things in and throw the kids in, do you want to drive this like novelty VW that's going to depreciate like 50% in a year or get a Raptor?
1:42:31
I think it can be a very cute mom car and and it can definitely like if you look at Volkswagen's >> but does a mom really want does do they really want the the buzz over like a Q7? >> No.
1:42:46
But isn't Audi a Volkswagen product too? >> Yeah.
1:42:51
So there's totally a flow where you go in for the buzz thinking like maybe I'll get the quirky thing and then you walk out with a Q7 or you walk out with an Atlas which is basically a Q72 or you upgrade you get a Urus which is >> Cayenne Turbo GT.
1:43:05
>> Is that a Volkswagen product too?
1:43:07
>> Yeah, Porsche's Volkswagen.
1:43:09
>> At least the at least the Cayenne GT looks different, you know.
1:43:11
Um but part of the reason that the VW bus is is like so legendary is like it was an icon and they spent a lot of time building that brand.
1:43:20
They ran a lot of out of home advertising.
1:43:22
They probably would have loved Adqu back in the 60s when they were pushing the buzz.
1:43:25
I mean they for out of home advertising made easy and measurable.
1:43:29
Say good to the headaches of out of home advertising only.
1:43:31
Adqubines technology out of home expertise and data to enable efficient seamless ad buying across the globe.
1:43:38
And let me al also tell you about Wander.
1:43:41
If you're if you're wandering around with your ID buzz or your car, summer, >> you can 12:39 p. m. Pacific.
1:43:47
You can book a wander today.
1:43:52
>> Today >> with inspiring views. >> Yeah. >> Fivestar amenities.
1:43:55
And you can >> hotel graded amenities, >> of course.
1:43:58
>> Dreamy beds, top tier cleaning, and 24/7 concier service.
1:44:00
It's a vacation home, but better folks. Go get on a wander.
1:44:05
And we have our we have our guest um in the studio.
1:44:08
What What are we doing, Jordy? Deep dive into tropics. >> Uh a bunch of things.
1:44:12
So, uh, Barb, let's bring him in.
1:44:16
>> Welcome to the stream. How you doing? >> There he is.
1:44:18
>> It's great to have you >> in the temple. >> What's going on?
1:44:22
>> I hope you don't mind if I do a shot before we start discussing. What are you drinking? >> Johnson olive oil. >> Oh, Brian Johnson. >> Olive oil shots. >> Okay, >> there we go. >> Is this a perform? That's like insane. I love it.
1:44:33
Uh, is that >> How does it How does it taste? >> Yeah. Give us a taste review.
1:44:37
>> Spicy as olive oils go.
1:44:37
It's spicy, but it's super tasty. >> Spicy. Okay. >> Yeah.
1:44:43
>> Is it is this a short-term performance enhancer?
1:44:45
Like you're you're on the show for 20 minutes right now.
1:44:46
Are you going to get a boost for the next 20 minutes or is this more like a you do it daily and then it improves your performance?
1:44:53
>> It's it's less of like a performance enhancer, more like a daily thing to do just to get really good fats in.
1:44:57
But I also heard that you guys are really sweet guys.
1:45:01
So I'm just going to pop on a glucose monitor here. >> Okay. There we go.
1:45:06
>> We're really maxing to find out if I told my blood sugar or not.
1:45:12
Take us through the rest of the stat. What else are you doing?
1:45:15
>> So, uh some some context on this. Um >> Barb's a buddy.
1:45:18
He's also here in LA with us.
1:45:20
with us. um investor and but the real reason uh I wanted to have you on is because I I feel like you have consistently been maybe two years ahead of me on various different types of health biohacking experiments and I've
1:45:38
always felt like I was somewhat ahead like in 2020 I had a >> you're like 20 years ahead of normie still >> I I had >> he's two years ahead of you >> Barb you would have loved this I had a um a cold plunge just in my bedroom in my No, this is 2020. I a year and a I a year and a half.
1:45:56
>> The dorm room cuz didn't you tell me the college the dorms it's like six dudes in one unit?
1:46:01
>> Well, uh UCSB will have like 15 guys in a house.
1:46:04
It's not the ideal biohacking environment.
1:46:06
>> Imagine you're just like during sex.
1:46:08
They say >> glucose monitor.
1:46:12
>> Um but anyways, you you've impressed me with how at the frontier you are.
1:46:14
I wanted to have you on to talk about everything, get the update on how you're thinking about GLP1s, peptides, we can talk about um a bunch of other things, but why don't you give a a quick intro yourself and then um we should start with like your stack, what you're running today, and then we can get into some subtopics. >> Sure. >> Great. Great.
1:46:35
Um Farbud Nivei, uh sort of healthnut, uh entrepreneur, uh investor, uh have a new project that we're just uh getting off the ground right now. what's called protocols.
1:46:45
Um, and hopefully we'll have some big news to share on that in in a few weeks.
1:46:50
Um, so yeah, I guess that's that's my intro. We're we're stack.
1:46:56
>> Yeah, let's start with what you're running today >> or what do you think what do you think you do that has like a power law outcome on your health cuz like sleep, diet, exercise seem like the most most important and then you get down into like I'm taking the seventh type of magnesium tonight and it's like >> or doing like gene therapy. Yeah. Yeah.
1:47:15
So, walk me through walk me through what's important and then and then what's more experimental.
1:47:20
>> I've done like tons of experimental stuff.
1:47:22
I've been doing blood work for like well over a decade.
1:47:24
I got, you know, folatin gene therapy.
1:47:26
I have genetically modified plasmids in my shoulder here.
1:47:30
Um they're they're probably getting near the end of their lives cuz they, you know, last a year or two.
1:47:35
Uh, and I mean the crazy thing is like despite being a health nut, I kind of found myself at the end of last year, beginning of this year, sort of overweight, depressed, and pre-diabetic.
1:47:48
>> Um, and you know, I'm I'm 48 now, so these things creep up on you.
1:47:51
Um, you can't do what you did 20 years ago, uh, and get the same thing 20 years later.
1:47:59
Um, >> and so I kind of sat back to figure out like what's wrong with my stack, right?
1:48:04
what's what's wrong with my routine?
1:48:04
Um, and really what it came down to is that I don't really have a routine.
1:48:08
Um, and I I'm sort of making it up every day.
1:48:13
>> Uh, I think Shane Parish was on Chris Williamson uh and said had this great point like a person with a routine will outperform a person who is negotiating with themselves every day.
1:48:23
>> Um, and I'm like that hit me really hard. I'm like, "Oh, wow.
1:48:25
We're doing self-negotiation every day.
1:48:27
We're like reinventing what it is to be a human being on a daily basis. What do I eat? should I exercise?
1:48:32
And I'm like, I'm really bad at routines.
1:48:35
So, that was actually the problem that I set out to solve.
1:48:39
And in doing that, I actually ended up stopping taking TRT.
1:48:41
Uh, so I don't take testosterone anymore.
1:48:44
Um, I stopped taking >> How was coming how was coming off that?
1:48:49
>> That's super interesting because I feel like everyone the narrative is like once you're on it, you can never get off of it because your body stops producing it naturally and you're like you're either on it forever or you know you you you should never touch it.
1:48:59
That that that's like the common narrative of This was like another problem with my routine.
1:49:02
I would take TRT, I would do it for a month or two and then I'd stop.
1:49:05
So, if you do it super consistently, it takes a while for, you know, the boys downstairs to turn off. Okay.
1:49:13
>> Um, you know, so like you can do it for a month or two and stop and they'll come back.
1:49:17
And so, um, >> I did a ton of blood tests actually and my most recent one which I just did with function, I did a huge function panel.
1:49:26
Uh, and my t my testosterone is like 600 700.
1:49:30
my free testosterone's above 100. It's pretty good. >> That's great. Yeah.
1:49:35
>> Um >> so yeah, I actually stopped doing peptides as well and we can kind of get into a little bit of that.
1:49:40
I've done peptides for probably seven, eight years.
1:49:44
And so my stack right now >> and how are you getting how are you getting them seven years ago?
1:49:47
I'm curious Chinese >> up and down.
1:49:51
And also and also just like I I feel like the only peptide that people know broadly is like glucagon like peptide like GLP-1 and that's generally not seen as a peptide for guys on TRT who are clearly going to the gym.
1:50:06
Um it's more for like you know serious weight loss.
1:50:09
And so I'm curious about like what what peptides even like drew your eye or were interesting or like what what was even the goal with those?
1:50:18
>> Yeah, I mean I like to experiment.
1:50:18
some, you know, seven, eight years ago, I'm like, let's see what these peptides are about.
1:50:22
And peptides are just like short strings of amino acids.
1:50:24
Like a protein is a long string of amino acid.
1:50:26
A peptide is a short string.
1:50:28
Um, and they're used a lot in signaling in your body.
1:50:32
So, you can take one peptide that tells your body to make more human growth hormone.
1:50:36
And that's kind of interesting because it is BPC 157. >> Yeah.
1:50:41
Uh, BP BPC57 is different.
1:50:41
BPC57 is like this sort of broad ranging peptide.
1:50:48
you actually make it in your gut.
1:50:50
Um, and if you just give yourself a lot more, it seems to help with healing in general. >> Yeah.
1:50:57
>> Do you think other ones increase growth hormone, other ones improve deep sleep?
1:51:02
Um, and if you're on Twitter at all, you're seeing a massive proliferation of these sites selling it.
1:51:06
And to your question about like how was I getting it in in the years that I've done peptides, you could get it from a doctor, you couldn't get it from a doctor, you could get it from a doctor. >> Yeah. Yeah.
1:51:17
It's kind of in limbo now.
1:51:20
Um, and all these sites, they sell it for research purposes.
1:51:24
>> Um, and >> which you are actually using for research purposes.
1:51:27
You >> were kind of researching it for research purposes. Yeah.
1:51:30
But it's not for human consumption.
1:51:32
Uh, the GLPs, uh, which are another type of peptide are the ones that you get like Mongjara, Ompic. Yeah.
1:51:40
>> Uh, and and that world is really getting crazy too because we know the brand name Ozmpic, but like Ompic is old news.
1:51:44
Um the the current one is Tzepide. >> Yeah, that's right.
1:51:50
>> Um and then Redat True Tide is coming next.
1:51:53
Um >> and there's two or three more after that.
1:51:58
>> Do you think those will break into kind of like athletic men who are maybe sitting at like 13% body fat or is it like at a micro dose or or or do you think it will remain as just like a powerful tool for for weight loss? >> Well, yeah.
1:52:13
the the the thing that's been interesting is all the reporting around, you know, GLP1s or trappepide helping with like willpower broadly. >> Sure. Sure.
1:52:23
>> So imagine just having 20% extra willpower.
1:52:25
willpower. Then but then there's the there's a counter example of like it makes you less risk on and so like Wilmanitis has that post that's like what is the effect of capital allocators broadly being on GLP1s like will we be a less risk they're not going turbo long
1:52:40
like the will we have less >> that's how we save the the T bill you know it's like people are just like yeah I'm fine to just earn 2% >> there's a there's a bill in the house for testosterone >> what are you talking about bills love to see it >> we we should get one in there testosterone Yeah. Yeah. I'm investing in tea bills. Yeah.
1:52:56
I'm investing in tea bills.
1:52:58
I'm taking micro my bills and paying tea.
1:53:01
>> People micro dose these things.
1:53:01
Um and they they seem to have like a lot more than just weight loss effect. Blood sugar regulation.
1:53:08
They seem to be reducing cancer in a bunch of uh studies.
1:53:13
>> Um so there's even a you know some people just micro dose them.
1:53:15
Like sometimes uh when I was doing it I was taking a really small dose uh you know 15th to onetenth of what the even starting dose is.
1:53:26
>> Um >> do you feel like a plateau though?
1:53:29
Because it feels like you know I I remember the first day in college I tried caffeine. I had coffee.
1:53:33
I actually didn't have caffeine until college.
1:53:36
Uh and it was like amazing.
1:53:38
And I've had that experience a lot of things.
1:53:39
And now it's like okay I kind of just need a bunch of caffeine to get back to baseline.
1:53:43
Uh, and I imagine that you you maybe experienced that with your journey on peptides and testosterone.
1:53:48
Um, but then is it like is it like once you get to the plateau, you pull it out and then kind of reset the baseline?
1:53:56
How do you think about that?
1:54:00
>> I I I I used to think non-stop about that and do it all the time and I kind of don't anymore.
1:54:04
Now I have a routine that I stick to.
1:54:06
Uh, it's like >> light first in thing in the morning. Hugely important. on your phone, right? Just max brightness out.
1:54:16
>> You don't light and hold it there.
1:54:19
>> VR headset AI slop in the morning.
1:54:23
>> That's hugely important.
1:54:23
It actually sets your bedtime when you get light in your eyes in the morning outside. >> Okay. Huh.
1:54:30
>> It sets your bedtime like 16 hours later. >> Wait.
1:54:33
And what what what counts for getting light?
1:54:35
Like I walk to my car in the morning at 5:30. Does that count?
1:54:40
I'm outside for a minute and then I'm getting light when I'm looking at the sunrise, I guess. >> Yep. That's the light.
1:54:45
But, you know, maybe it gets three to five minutes.
1:54:48
>> Three to five minutes.
1:54:48
So, I should like kind of walk around the block or something a little bit.
1:54:51
Well, this morning this morning I got up like you got to my house.
1:54:55
We were driving into the office and I I was running like 5 minutes behind.
1:54:59
So, you kind of had five minutes just putting around out there. I did.
1:55:02
So, that was for your health, John.
1:55:05
>> Whether or not you do it, that's helping you.
1:55:06
That's helping your health. Yeah.
1:55:08
Uh, and then I usually, you know, do the morning stuff.
1:55:10
Uh, pound a lot of water in the morning.
1:55:12
I learned this from a buddy of mine, um, Jack Drifus, who, uh, has this sort of morning ritual about not using his phone and chugging water, and those are actually sort of life-changing.
1:55:22
Um, you don't want to blast social media into your eyes in the first hour.
1:55:27
>> Um, it really changes your neurology if you don't.
1:55:29
Um, then gym, uh, getting vitamin D walks outside, a whole list of supplements that I >> What do you like in terms of gym? What do I do for gym?
1:55:38
I do like 15 minutes every other day. >> Okay.
1:55:41
Wow, that seems like short. Um >> Yeah. Yeah.
1:55:44
I feel like I'm recovery maxing. >> Okay. Recovery maxing. Interesting.
1:55:49
>> I mean, all your gains lifting. >> Yeah.
1:55:51
So, so how have you noticed since I'm assuming? Yeah.
1:55:53
I'm assuming you went through a period where you're just like bro split.
1:55:58
>> You seem like you've done CrossFit. I don't know.
1:56:00
I'm just throwing stuff out. >> No.
1:56:01
I'm like the last guy you'll see doing CrossFit. Yeah. >> Okay.
1:56:04
But have you ever done it? >> No. Never.
1:56:07
>> But but were you ever running a bros split like you know chest back legs chest back legs rest on you know Sunday? Did you ever do that?
1:56:15
>> I'm kind of I'm like light version of that now.
1:56:18
Like to me the thing I learned is that like a little bit of a bunch of things actually makes the biggest difference. interesting on some.
1:56:27
>> And so like get having a routine where you kind of do these things regularly.
1:56:32
Um that actually makes a bigger difference than going like crazy on one thing which kind of puts your health lopsided.
1:56:37
And that's actually the you know I was mentioning protocols earlier.
1:56:42
It's a little app we've been building uh that kind of makes all this easy.
1:56:44
We call it health maxing with friends.
1:56:45
Um so you can basically do these little routines.
1:56:51
you can build a stack for yourself and then you kind of do it with friends. They do them too.
1:56:55
You see their faces appear um as they get them done throughout the day.
1:57:00
And that has honestly made the biggest literal difference in my health of anything I've ever done. Not even not even close. >> That makes sense.
1:57:07
Uh talk about microplastics in glass.
1:57:09
I know you've been diving into this.
1:57:11
That study came out everybody everybody was like, "Wait, this feels like uh some propaganda from Big Plastic that says, "Yeah, even your glass water has plastic.
1:57:20
Don't give well that was the remember the there was a talk at Hereticon about that.
1:57:24
Remember it was like how would you get people to use more glass or something or >> Well, that was that was exercise. >> It was Yeah.
1:57:32
It was it was a mental exercise about how to get people to use more plastic and it was like one of the one of the ideas that people threw out was like make glass sound bad. >> Yeah.
1:57:41
>> And and like here we are. Here we are.
1:57:43
Somebody ran the >> Yeah. Here we are. >> Yeah. What is the actual data?
1:57:45
Well, the study was done by like I think a French organization, so we don't know if it's just EU propaganda or actual science.
1:57:53
So, um you know, we have to put it to the test.
1:57:55
So, basically, they found there's more plastic in glass bottles um than in uh >> plastic bottles.
1:58:02
Uh and the culprit is like the cap at the top of the >> bottles.
1:58:07
They have like a little plastic inside the cap of a glass bottle.
1:58:09
Uh and it seems like that's the plastic that's getting into it.
1:58:13
So, I'm actually replicating the study.
1:58:15
I found a a local lab that will um do the analysis.
1:58:17
I'm going to get a bunch of different waters and just send it in and see what the results are.
1:58:26
>> Do you know how big the study was in in France?
1:58:28
>> Because I feel like >> the size I mean it was like a pretty well done study.
1:58:31
>> I feel like the whole the whole difficulty is like do you test like what's the variability?
1:58:35
How do you get the actual size?
1:58:36
Are you testing like hundreds of water bottles, thousands, or like >> the other thing?
1:58:43
>> The big thing with plastic, and it's people don't say it as much, but it's kind of started there, is like don't leave your plastic bottle in the car >> because when it gets hot, it leeches. >> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah, that makes sense.
1:58:53
>> So, I don't know if they're comparing it, you know, to a leachched plastic bottle versus a glass one that's not going to.
1:58:59
>> Um, another one, how, uh, what are you doing around cholesterol right now?
1:59:03
I know you were running experiment there a while back.
1:59:06
Yeah, this was actually kind of an accidental experiment.
1:59:08
Uh I uh I take most of Brian Johnson's stack just because it's like everything I want and it's easy and I and I trust them.
1:59:15
Um so one of the things he has is his red yeast rice.
1:59:20
So I'm like whatever, I'm just taking the red yeast rice.
1:59:22
Uh and then I I just sort of happened to do a blood panel before and after and my cholesterol has always been pretty high.
1:59:29
Um including some of like the bad ones as they say.
1:59:31
Uh, and all of a sudden everything just went green and I have this like peak cholesterol panel.
1:59:36
And so I had to kind of like look back through my app um and chat with our little AI uh and figure out what what what have happened.
1:59:47
Uh and basically it was just like immediately it was the red yeast rice because red yeast rice is basically a statin.
1:59:52
Um so monocololin K is one of the statins and that's what red yeast rice has in it.
1:59:58
So I was kind of basically taking a lowd dose statin for a while. >> It was kind of crazy. Six weeks.
2:00:04
>> So is that something you'll cycle going forward or just effectively do consistently?
2:00:08
>> Probably take consistently.
2:00:08
Some people I I pair it with like a good dose of CoQ10.
2:00:13
Um because some people on statins or red yeast rice, they experience like some muscle soreness.
2:00:18
Um and it seems like the taking a good amount of CoQ10 basically takes that away, which for me it does. Um, makes sense.
2:00:29
Uh, how are you have you have have you been playing around with hyperbaric oxygen chambers at all?
2:00:33
I'm sort of anticipating that that is the next version of the home sauna or the home ice, you know, cold plunge.
2:00:40
It feels like we're maybe a couple years out from uh more commercial or more consumerfriendly versions of those products because they're showing tremendous benefits, but if you actually look at buying one, it's like this like $30,000 machine that looks like it's out of a hospital and it looks really kind of scary.
2:00:59
Um but I want to be doing it consistently and I don't really have time to do it outside of >> mixed branding too.
2:01:05
Like I I've the first time I heard about a uh hyperbaric like sleeping in a hyperbaric chamber, it was Michael Jackson.
2:01:13
>> And then I'm pretty sure that's like the first time it entered my mind as like something that you could do.
2:01:17
Uh although extremely valuable for scuba divers because you know if you get the bends like you need to be in a hyperaric chamber to recompress.
2:01:24
And so it's like a lifesaving technology for in the scuba diving world.
2:01:29
Uh but then it was like used as like this odd this odd crazy health hack.
2:01:34
But then Brian Johnson's been talking about it a lot.
2:01:35
So yeah, what what's your take on the hyperbaric chambers?
2:01:38
>> I'm actually in the process of finding one to purchase and put here in the office.
2:01:42
Um, and it seems like it's basically one of the best things you can do for longevity and health on >> and the thing is you need to get up to about two atmospheres.
2:01:52
So they have they have ones that are like 1.
2:01:55
3 atmospheres of pressure, 1.
2:01:57
4 somewhere above two, but it seems like two is the spot that kind of gives you the most benefits.
2:02:05
It's sort of the sweet spot.
2:02:05
I mean, literally improving your DNA, increasing your telomere length.
2:02:09
I think Brian Johnson said it was the best skin treatment he's ever done, and the guy does a lot of skin treatments.
2:02:16
>> Um, >> so yeah, I think you're right.
2:02:17
It's going to get bigger and bigger.
2:02:18
It's a little bit of a nuisance because you're in there for an hour to an hour and a half. >> Doesn't he like work?
2:02:23
I thought Brian Johnson was like doing emails in there or something.
2:02:27
>> Yeah, he has one that you can kind of sit upright in and get stuff done. >> Okay. Yeah. >> Yeah.
2:02:32
I I like these these more, you know, I think the the reason that that saunas are so great is it it's passive.
2:02:39
It doesn't take a lot of it doesn't take a lot of willpaper to say or sorry willpower to say oh I'm going to go >> here on TVPN.
2:02:48
>> It doesn't take a lot of willpower to go and say I'm going to go and and sit in the sauna for 30 minutes and it has tremendous benefits.
2:02:54
And I think the same thing for the hyperbaric chamber.
2:02:58
You can go in there, get some work done, read a book, listen to TBPN, etc.
2:03:04
>> Yeah, it's on 24 hours.
2:03:04
Yeah, it's it's a wild time.
2:03:06
We've got some really crazy stuff coming down the pipeline.
2:03:08
They uh uh they think they have a shot that, you know, will lower your cholesterol for life in one shot. >> What? >> That's crazy.
2:03:16
>> Another company that the company that did my gene therapy um is working on one that'll increase your IQ. >> That's insane. Wow.
2:03:22
How what what what's the how much data do you personally need to run an experiment on yourself?
2:03:28
Like the I the IQ one it feels like yeah if you got 20 people that that got some benefit >> maybe fast maxing you know you're just down for fasty environments. >> Yeah.
2:03:39
Always >> as long as it's not harmful I'm generally okay with trying it to see what it does. >> Sure.
2:03:45
>> Uh but how do you know? >> Last question. Last question. I'm curious.
2:03:49
Where's your how what's your thinking around uh I think I know the answer already but the sort of like >> ancestral philosophy you know sort of like consume things that >> uh you know existed hundreds of years ago versus you know uh >> something being made in a lab is not necessarily bad and and you should take advantage of of science.
2:04:14
>> I I think it's just not a great huristic in general.
2:04:16
It's like convenient and easy, but I don't think it's a great heruristic, right?
2:04:21
Everything should stand up to having a good explanation for it.
2:04:25
Uh, and those neither of those are great explanations is like, you know, uh, bowing to ancestral ways or to science.
2:04:33
If you don't have a good explanation for why the thing works, uh, then you should be kind of suspicious of it.
2:04:38
And I don't I don't think either of those are are great, uh, explanations.
2:04:42
You know, you got to take things on their face.
2:04:44
circadian alignment is it?
2:04:44
I mean, it turns out that the bro scientists were right on a million things.
2:04:49
Um, we we thought diabetes type two was literally incurable before the 2010s.
2:04:55
Um, bro scientists always thought you could you could cure it with lifestyle and diet.
2:05:00
Uh, finally in the 2010s after a hundred years of thinking it was incurable, we realized you can actually reverse type 2 diabetes.
2:05:07
Um, so in a lot of cases the bro scientists are right.
2:05:13
got to continue to bro down. >> Trust the experts.
2:05:14
Always the experts, the bro scientists. >> Um, awesome.
2:05:18
Well, uh, would love to have you back on again.
2:05:20
When you have more news in a couple weeks and, uh, yeah, let's let's, uh, >> let's hang soon.
2:05:26
>> When you have more when when you're running your experiments, whether they're on yourself or water, hit us.
2:05:29
We we love we love breaking news. So, great. >> Okay, great. Happy to see you guys. >> Have a good one. Bye. >> See you soon. Cheers.
2:05:37
>> Uh, if you're looking to upg your sleep game, head over toleep. com. That's right.
2:05:43
>> Pod 5 Ultra, the first fully immersive sleep system that works with any bed.
2:05:47
Pod 5 actively adjusts your temperature, elevates your body, and plays integrated soundscapes to improve your sleep.
2:05:52
Head over to eight asleep. com.
2:05:54
Uh, we got Sean Frank in the studio.
2:05:59
The man who invented the wallet, >> invented e-commerce here.
2:06:01
He invented e-commerce, he invented the wallet, and now he invented podcasting with us. Welcome to the stream. How you doing?
2:06:08
>> It's been too long, >> guys. I'm doing great.
2:06:10
I had heard the eight sleep ad. Yeah.
2:06:12
I got two perfect scores in a row. >> No way. No way. Yeah. Yeah. >> So hard to do. >> Yeah. Yeah.
2:06:19
Dude, last night I posted 100.
2:06:21
I I posted it on Twitter.
2:06:21
So it makes a lot of sense that that was the intro that I got.
2:06:25
>> How many How many one-year-olds do you have at your house? >> Uh zero. I have zero.
2:06:31
>> I'm I'm kind of playing with one hand or two hands tied behind my back here, but congratulations.
2:06:36
our I went through about a year period where my my lovely children were just sleeping perfectly through every night and >> sleep should make a sleeping bag for a four-year-old that they can't get out of.
2:06:49
Kind of a straight jacket, a padded room that's temperature controlled with a lock on the door so the kid can't get up. >> So dark.
2:06:57
But >> we're going to turn this, you know how there's like every show is like the manosphere content.
2:07:01
We need to do the datosphere content.
2:07:02
You're not a dad yet so it won't really work.
2:07:04
We'll need different guests for that, but we need to get really hard hardcore on the dad content.
2:07:09
Anyway, let's talk about Tik Tok.
2:07:12
Tik Tok's selling to a US owner to get ready.
2:07:14
They're turning down the focus on Shops and pushing the ad product again.
2:07:17
Shops has always lost money. I didn't know that.
2:07:19
And without the parent co-funding it, no one wants to eat that loss.
2:07:23
Tik Tok will be an ad platform again, at least for the rest of the year. Break that down for us. What does that mean?
2:07:28
What are the implications? >> Yeah.
2:07:30
Have you guys ever bought anything from Tik Tok shops?
2:07:33
>> No, I've never used Tik Tok. Dude, I love that.
2:07:35
John, you're a true patriot.
2:07:41
>> But yeah, so so Tik Tok shops, I mean, if you talk to people inside of Tik Tok, like high up, they do not see Meta as a competitor.
2:07:48
They don't want to compete with Meta.
2:07:49
Like it's obviously >> like they're they both have short form video now, they're but like Tik Tok never really was a social app in the way that Instagram and Facebook really are.
2:07:58
>> I heard this this morning.
2:07:58
people uh our one of our younger uh friends was saying like the Gen Z they don't DM each other on Tik Tok they use Snapchat to talk and chat and then they use Tik Tok as like a YouTube style content. >> Yeah.
2:08:14
So like if you talk to people at Tik Tok they really want to go after the YouTubes of the world and they really want to go after Amazon, right?
2:08:18
Because Amazon is this big pot of money.
2:08:20
It's 600 billion a year in e-commerce revenue >> that >> no like Amazon's given up trying to grow, right?
2:08:28
So, we have Prime Day growing right now.
2:08:30
It's four days of Prime Day.
2:08:32
They doubled the length year over year and they said that it'll grow 20%.
2:08:35
So, each day is down like 40%.
2:08:35
When you add that up, you get 20% growth.
2:08:41
It's just pure value extraction for Amazon at this point.
2:08:43
There's going to be more ads.
2:08:44
Like they they've signed up a 100 million Prime members.
2:08:46
That business can't really grow anymore.
2:08:48
So there's this big pot of money that Walmart tries to attack and >> pronatalism might might change that.
2:08:52
I expect Amazon to start lobbying for for you know subsidies for for young families to just like we just need to triple the population of the United States earlier about the fact that I believe Amazon makes more in net income than Tesla makes in revenue.
2:09:11
>> Like way more >> way more. It's crazy.
2:09:14
>> There's levels on the MAG 7 chart >> anyway. Uh yeah.
2:09:16
So, so, so, uh, but it sounds like with with Tik Tok going to US owner, like something's changing there. Break that down. >> Yeah.
2:09:24
Uh, so they spent probably 24 months and easily $30 billion trying to get people to use Tik Tok shops, right?
2:09:33
Um, right now the estimate is that like it's a billion dollars a month in GMV.
2:09:37
So, a 12 billion GMV business.
2:09:41
That could be high, it could be low. It changes. That's not very big.
2:09:42
Like, you know, Shopify's GMV in a quarter is probably double that, right?
2:09:46
So, Shopify probably does like a quarter billion in GMV.
2:09:50
So, they haven't been that successful getting people to actually shop repeatedly.
2:09:54
>> Um, and to get that billion dollars, they lit a bunch of money on fire with subsidies.
2:09:59
>> Wait, do you mean a quarter trillion?
2:10:00
>> Quarter trillion in GMBB for Shopify probably. >> Yeah. Yeah.
2:10:02
Sorry, that's that's what I meant.
2:10:05
Um, and you know, we have Amazon at 600 billion, right?
2:10:07
So, like >> Tik Tok is trying really hard.
2:10:10
Their goal this year was to get to 20 billion in GMV, right?
2:10:13
So to be like onetenth of what Shopify's at.
2:10:16
And when they launched for the first 12 months, it was aggressive subsidies.
2:10:20
So they would come to brands like mine and they'd be like, hey, sell on our platform and we will give customers 50% off.
2:10:26
And then we're like, well, I don't want to sell 50% off.
2:10:30
They're like, no, no, we will fund it. We'll fund discounts.
2:10:32
We'll fund free shipping.
2:10:34
They made this aggressive push to try to get people to to shop there. Right?
2:10:37
So there was just >> and simultaneously there was this other company flip that was doing the same thing basic.
2:10:42
Is that the right name for it?
2:10:44
They were just basically giving away products.
2:10:47
It was it was basically a what was it?
2:10:48
A wealth transfer from LPs to venture capitalists to the American consumer >> selling dollars for 90 cents >> for a lot less than that strategy for 50 cents apparently. >> Yeah.
2:10:59
So and and flip was the same thing.
2:11:01
All of them are are I mean Timu Sheen everybody's coming after like this disposable income in America, right?
2:11:05
So Flip's like, "We're going to take a social, you know, commerce uh attack on it."
2:11:11
Tik Tok was the same thing.
2:11:11
You know, Teimu is owned by a publicly traded company in China, right?
2:11:15
That's worth like $200 billion.
2:11:17
And they were losing, I mean, probably a hundred million dollars a month to try to get, you know, user acquisition.
2:11:25
All of them are coming after Amazon.
2:11:26
So >> that strategy would probably continue to play out if section 321 didn't close.
2:11:30
I don't know if you guys covered that.
2:11:32
you had Ryan Peterson on, but it used to be that you could ship, you know, goods via Teeu from China to the US totally tax and duty-free, right?
2:11:40
So, why is Teimu cheaper than Old Navy or H&M or whatever else is they're paying zero taxes. Um, so we closed that.
2:11:50
>> Now, Teimu's revenue and their traffic has fallen 50% in like 60 days, right?
2:11:55
They they've taken their gas off of customer acquisition.
2:11:56
Same thing's happening with Tik Tok.
2:11:58
they have a really awesome app with a ton of users and if they're forced to sell to the US, someone's just going to turn that into a cash cow, right?
2:12:06
It's going to get bought by, you know, it's probably going to be Walmart or, you know, Apploven is making a bid.
2:12:11
Like all of these ad platforms are making a bid because there's a bunch of users there and if you have users you have attention, you could turn on the money printing machine, which is Google, which is Meta, right?
2:12:20
So, you know, it will it'll end up being more of a meta competitor.
2:12:25
They're going to abandon the strategy of going after Amazon and they will just start printing money like every good app platform should like you guys do. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. Interesting. Yeah.
2:12:34
It was I I have a I had a friend that at the time that the the Tik Tok ban was being floated or the app was being removed from the app store.
2:12:44
I had a friend that was just absolutely printing on TikTok.
2:12:46
His he has a, you know, nine figure e-commerce brand and he was like, I don't really want it to be banned because I'm making like, you know, $2 million a month right now and it's pretty good, but it clearly was just like fake and and you know, heavily subsidized and totally unsustainable. >> Yeah.
2:13:07
Explain explain this interaction in the comments to that post.
2:13:08
They barely Ariel says they barely co-und anything anymore.
2:13:12
anything anymore. hard disagree with this take and you said but that's why they stopped co-und co-unding things is that talking about Tik Tok's parent bite dance paying this or Tik Tok co-unding promotions with brands >> yeah so they've been winding it down for probably the past three months right and
2:13:32
I mean >> this is this is Tik Tok going to brands >> yesing the co-unding is when you run uh Tik Tok shops to try to get new brands in there to try to get your sales up they are going to cover discount ounts fees and they will give the brand that money so that the discount passed to the customer. So Tik Tok, you know, Amazon
2:13:47
So Tik Tok, you know, Amazon gets 15% of all transactions as fees. Tik Tok gets 6%.
2:13:53
But they take that 6% and they give you 30% of your of your transaction back, right?
2:13:58
That's that co-unding element.
2:14:01
>> They started to slow that down drastically in January when they got banned, right?
2:14:05
The writing was on the wall that they're not going to do this anymore and they've been slowly bringing down co-unding.
2:14:09
And then t if you go on Tik Tok there's a ter term called ad load.
2:14:13
It's how many ads do you get per post right?
2:14:16
So >> you know on Instagram it's like you have an ad load of 33%.
2:14:19
One in one in three posts are going to be ads.
2:14:21
Tik Tok got to 50% of all ads were monetized >> through either affiliate. Yeah.
2:14:26
So, so it's it's natural post ad, natural post ad, post ad, post ad, post ad, like that.
2:14:36
>> And the ads are split between monetize via shops, which is uh, you know, like affiliate posts, and normal ads, they have turned that down drastically, and made the ads way better.
2:14:46
So, traditional advertising where I spend money to get people to my website, right, like what Meta does, it's been crushing on Tik Tok ever since they they made this change like 3 months ago.
2:14:56
So, the writing's on the wall.
2:14:58
Tik Tok shop will be drastically dep prioritized and the ads are going to start being awesome again.
2:15:04
>> What about the state of live shopping in the US? Were you guys at Ridge?
2:15:07
Like, did you have somebody that was live on TikTok all day long selling wallets?
2:15:11
Did you ever Did you ever go live?
2:15:15
>> Why do you think Sean has that podcast mic? He's >> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. No.
2:15:18
Uh, you know, we we've tried it because Amazon pushed it pretty aggressively, Flip pushed it aggressively, and then Tik Tok pushed it aggressively. We we've tried all that.
2:15:29
Um, it doesn't really work in America without the subsidies, right?
2:15:31
Like, >> there's this flywheel on Tik Tok where you get 50 people to go live, they all start selling stuff, they push your product to the top, then other affiliates want to come in and start selling it because it's a good selling product.
2:15:43
But that only works when you heavily subsidize it.
2:15:45
And that hurts your Walmart business or your Amazon business or your Whole Foods business because nobody likes to be undercut.
2:15:52
>> I've had a lot of friends who, you know, I have a friend who got to $10 million a month on uh Tik Tok shops.
2:15:58
>> But in the grand scheme of things, he has like a hundred million a month wholesale business.
2:16:02
So it's like, dude, it just it's it was cool. It was exciting. It was fast growing.
2:16:06
And they made it profitable for brands, but it's all falling apart.
2:16:10
I I don't think Americans really want live shopping and I don't think it's ever going to catch on.
2:16:16
>> What about uh so so what do you think the future of platforms like whatnot is?
2:16:21
Is it focusing on these sort of like niche collectibles and and auctions and things like that?
2:16:25
Like could it work in subcategories? >> Yeah, dude.
2:16:29
And you know to give Tik Tok credit, they brought affiliates back, right?
2:16:35
Affiliate was a bad word in 2021, right?
2:16:37
If you were if you were doing affiliate marketing, you were selling like >> the scamiest product on earth or like porn or Viagra or something, right?
2:16:44
And they made more young kids more uh, you know, be okay with selling stuff on the internet.
2:16:51
So, they made affiliate cool again.
2:16:54
>> And >> I think we will see more of that, but it is going to be more, you know, niche.
2:16:58
I think WhatNot's a great platform if you like Pokemon cards or if you like gaming.
2:17:03
And you could see Twitch have more social comments built in, but it's not going to be the hundred billion dollar GMV business that Tik Tok's trying to build it to.
2:17:12
And an e-commerce >> and that it is in China, right?
2:17:14
And in Asia broadly, >> why does it work there and not here? >> I don't know, man.
2:17:19
I mean, customers in America are used to like infinite choice, right?
2:17:23
The other thing is we have just really low e-commerce penetration compared to China, right?
2:17:28
China's at like 40% of all transactions are happening online and America struggles to crack 15. So >> yeah. Yeah. Yeah.
2:17:36
>> What what's the downstream effect of like that the ads getting better on Tik Tok?
2:17:39
Does that mean like brands need to be investing more in like actually like you know Super Bowl ad level creative?
2:17:48
Is it doing some sort of viral stunt like the Cluey thing?
2:17:50
Like is it just algorithm hacking AI slop?
2:17:52
like what what do you think the meta will be in terms of like actually having an ad really really perform on Tik Tok post sell or post sale to US owner? >> Yeah.
2:18:04
Well, I I would start testing this right now, but what Meta has pushed so uh Meta is like still the king of, you know, performance advertising, right?
2:18:16
130 billion in ads run through that platform and they spent the past year working on something called Andromeda, which is their new ad engine, right?
2:18:22
And all it is is they want high velocity of creative.
2:18:27
They don't care if it looks awesome.
2:18:28
They don't care if it's AI generated.
2:18:29
They just want high variety, right?
2:18:32
And they they want you to feed the ad engine as much high variety content as possible.
2:18:36
>> Really focus on short form video still, but like high production, UGC, AI, whatever you want to put in there.
2:18:40
And then >> Andromeda just finds the best thing for the best person at the right time.
2:18:44
Like it they've really focused on making sure they like their internal ad auction serves the best ad for the best person.
2:18:52
take whatever winners you have over there because meta did the heavy lifting for you and just run them on TikTok.
2:18:57
Like, >> are we are we completely past the era of like it was the Harmon brothers that were doing those like really catchy, really high production value videos?
2:19:04
I remember like the Dollar Shave Club launch video was kind of like the case study in this where you could go get like a hundred million impressions on one really crazy ad and then do retargeting based on how long people watched.
2:19:18
Like, is that is that meta just completely dead?
2:19:20
Are we no longer going to see like iconic ads for particular brands? >> Yeah.
2:19:26
So, Harman Brothers did great.
2:19:28
There's a company called Sandwich Video. They did great. >> Yeah.
2:19:29
Sandwich was another one that was really big in that. >> Yeah.
2:19:32
Ra Raindrop is still doing it. Yeah.
2:19:34
The the problem is >> like there's a percentage of uh creative cost to ad spend, right?
2:19:41
So, if you're going to spend a million dollars on a video, you have to spend at least $20 million promoting it, right?
2:19:46
And it used to be that like the ad cost could be a third, right?
2:19:52
When you're running TV ads, you'd spend a lot of money to make a really memorable thing.
2:19:55
And the delivery was only twothirds of the cost.
2:19:59
The delivery now needs to be like at least 95% of the costing.
2:20:01
And that just drives everything the investment in creative down.
2:20:07
>> So is there >> I think Yeah. Yeah.
2:20:08
But is there some sort of like like un unquantifiable value or in the short term around like creating like what's called a shelling point?
2:20:19
point? So like we all know about like you know the era's tour for uh Taylor Swift like it was such a big phenomenon that everyone's aware of that or like Barbheimer or like the Dollar Shave Club ad like everyone has seen it and so it
2:20:34
has like enduring value for a really really long time and if you're creating like a bunch of like highly tailored random ads that are just kind of like generally out there you never create a brand that has like yes everyone remembers that particular Nike campaign. Everyone remembers like this thing that
2:20:50
Everyone remembers like this thing that broke through and everyone was talking about that ad like the the iPhone or the the the iPod like silhouette dancing campaign.
2:20:59
Like everyone remembers that one.
2:21:01
Like are we just post that type of marketing?
2:21:04
Or is there still potentially alpha if you could underwrite it across like two decades and you're willing to take this like really big shot, go make something great and then be like, "Yeah, we are going to spend 20 million against this $1 million ad ad that we shot."
2:21:15
It might take us a couple years to actually deliver to everyone, but we're going to do it and it's going to pay back over like 20 years. >> I don't know.
2:21:22
My my What's your My immediate thought is that it's not enough for people to just remember a moment of your brand or remember that your brand exists.
2:21:30
It's not going to it doesn't guarantee to have value 10 years from today because like when's the last time you bought a Dollar Shave Club product despite >> It's true.
2:21:41
>> Totally remembering the campaign. >> Yeah. No, it's true. >> Yeah.
2:21:44
And as long as it's hitting that ratio where 95% of the dollars are going to creative.
2:21:48
So if you have a massive budget where you're going to spend a million bucks on a video and you can support it with 20 million. Sure, dude.
2:21:54
If that's what you want to do, like it's but we're like when Dollar Shave Club made that video, they didn't have any money. >> Yeah.
2:22:00
>> So it was all organic exposure, right?
2:22:02
They made a really good video that like you know they really gambled on it where it was 100% of costs were going to ad creative.
2:22:07
And as ad creative costs go down and as the inter internet gets messier and harder to stand out like you just need to have that money spent on um you know actually delivering.
2:22:19
>> Well what do you think about the modern incarnation of the Dollar Shave Club like 100% of the the spend going towards the creative like Cle just ran this playbook.
2:22:29
What's your reaction to that?
2:22:31
Like they like the reason people have seen the the the Cleul viral videos is not because of ad spend.
2:22:36
They're probably they might be promoting it a little bit here and there, but mostly they're just really good at getting engagement and going viral.
2:22:43
And so people are remembering that now.
2:22:45
Maybe Dollar Shave Club is a cautionary tale for them.
2:22:48
But is that even a tool in the tool chest that that founders should be reaching for? >> Oh yeah, dude.
2:22:55
Uh controversy and rage baiting, right?
2:22:57
Like we all know about Kloe.
2:22:58
Like yeah, it was a good video, but like it's because >> yeah, >> they they're really good at rage baiting.
2:23:04
The other thing is like Dr.
2:23:05
Squatch did the Sydney Sweeney bath, right?
2:23:08
Like we're going to talk about that because of the controversy tied to it and like the outlandish nature, but if you want to make a really beautiful message, the iPod dancing video, nobody gives a It's like you have you have to make somebody mad. >> The culture shifted. Yeah, it's rough.
2:23:23
Uh yeah, explain to me Dr. Squatch.
2:23:23
I I I haven't used the products or I'm not really even familiar with it like but there's news at the company, too.
2:23:29
Like just tell me everything you know about it.
2:23:32
Well, dude, uh, every Sunday me and Josh, the the current, uh, CEO of Dractor Squash, play tennis. So, you guys are in LA.
2:23:39
If you guys are big tennis guys, you should come play.
2:23:40
Um, >> that'd be awesome, >> dude.
2:23:43
They're, uh, they're crushing it. It's a great story.
2:23:45
So, the guy who made it, Jack, uh, you know, in 2016, they were doing $3 million.
2:23:49
He had some other partners and he had the foresight to understand that distribution was everything.
2:23:56
He raised like 30 million bucks.
2:23:57
He bought all his other partners out and with $27 million remaining, he's like, "I'm just going to put everything into YouTube."
2:24:03
He dumped all of that money into you YouTube advertising.
2:24:06
And the flywheel just got started.
2:24:10
>> Contrarian, because every brand at the time said, "You can't get YouTube to work as a direct response channel."
2:24:16
Like programmatic YouTube. >> Yeah.
2:24:20
like creator driven YouTube was working, but but that wasn't like that was a kind of novel insight that he had. >> Yeah.
2:24:28
And it was it was a beautiful raindrop video like like that video is still like it was funny.
2:24:32
It was iconic and he's just like men's soap's a massive category. This should be bigger.
2:24:37
I'm going to bet the farm on advertising. He dumped it into it.
2:24:39
They ended up getting a huge secondary transaction. Mhas is a great bank.
2:24:42
They ruined that deal for him.
2:24:44
They ended up getting bought uh by Summit.
2:24:46
This was like peak COVID 2021.
2:24:48
Um, so then Summit put in a great management team.
2:24:52
Josh Josh was there, you know, working before there.
2:24:55
Um, and then they just scaled the thing.
2:24:57
I mean, the numbers are like they'll do hundreds of millions of dollars this year.
2:25:00
They just got bought by Unilver for 1.
2:25:01
5 billion and it's a great outcome, right?
2:25:04
I mean, Summit's going to make a ton of money.
2:25:05
So, you know, uh, we're kind of at the end of the fund cycle for a lot of those TDC funds, right?
2:25:13
If you raised money from a brand, it's a 10-year fund.
2:25:15
like we're getting towards the end where there's going to be a lot of consolidation. Dr.
2:25:19
Squatch is a winner, made money all the way up, and now they're going to be owned by Unilver and they'll be the next, you know, generational men's personal care brand.
2:25:26
They'll be the axe or like the bod spray, whatever we had in middle school. That's Dr. Squatch.
2:25:31
>> So, so seven years the reaction on this video.
2:25:34
So, seven years ago, they launched this video, Natural Soap for Men has 122 million views on YouTube.
2:25:40
Was that the case of just amazing creative and it went viral naturally or did they spend money to get that 120 million views?
2:25:48
>> Oh, they they dumped like 20 million bucks into that video. >> Okay. Wow.
2:25:51
I mean, it has 11,000 comments so clearly like people even if they saw it as a promoted post, like they wound up engaging with it because it was good creative as well. So, uh but wow. Yeah.
2:26:00
What what what a crazy arbit. Sorry, Jordan.
2:26:03
>> Uh I guess speaking of coming to the end of fund cycles, what what is the state?
2:26:09
Earlier this year, we were covering kind of the state of rollups.
2:26:11
It wasn't looking that good.
2:26:13
I still think it's not looking uh great.
2:26:14
Uh will there be any real bright spots in that sort of category of investment, >> right? Right.
2:26:24
And I think I sent you this before we got started.
2:26:25
Um you guys had like the last guy on here was curing diabetes, right?
2:26:29
Like okay, if that works hundred billion dollar company, you know what I mean?
2:26:33
Like we talk about Nvidia crossing $4 trillion.
2:26:35
It's just a whole different game when you come to consumer, right? Dr. Squatch of 1. 5 billion, massive win.
2:26:42
Like, yeah, everyone in that group will end up being LPS in new funds, right?
2:26:47
But like they're not going to be Mark Zuckerberg.
2:26:51
They're not going to be, >> you know, hundred billion dollar outcomes, right?
2:26:53
So, them, there's a company called We Are Wild.
2:26:56
I'm friends with that team. They're uh in the UK.
2:26:59
They got bought by Unilver as well.
2:26:59
So, I mean, multiundred million deal.
2:27:02
You know, if you raise at a5 or$10 million valuation and you exit for 200 million, that's like what venture returns used to be in 2011 or whatever.
2:27:11
It's a massive win, right?
2:27:13
Um that's just the world consumers still in.
2:27:15
So there there are a lot of winners, right? Poppy getting bought.
2:27:19
Um you know, there's every every like two or three weeks right now there's a new either CPG brand or hair care brand getting bought in like this, you know, one to 100 million to $500 million range.
2:27:29
That's happening a lot right now with that consolidation.
2:27:32
What's the postmortem on the build?
2:27:34
>> But the actual but but the actual like roll up like rollups where I'm going to raise a bunch of money and buy a bunch of brands and you know uh the hope would have been to IPO.
2:27:45
Turns out it's very hard to make money own a bunch owning a bunch of Amazon brands or a bunch of random Shopify brands like >> the Thrasio thing.
2:27:53
>> Thrasio and then there was the open store.
2:27:56
>> A few others were trying that >> but it's been rough.
2:27:57
I used to get emails for that all the time when I was running e-commerce brand like hey do you want to sell and I'm like no like did you look at crunchbas like it's not like that type of business. >> No.
2:28:08
Uh sorry Jory I misunderstood the question.
2:28:11
Yeah all of those are I think I think I got a DM.
2:28:12
I don't know if this is true or not that open source is bankrupt.
2:28:16
So I don't know if that's been announced yet but like they're all like Thorasio went bankrupt.
2:28:19
Open source is going to go bankrupt.
2:28:21
There's like we thought there'd be synergies in like running all of these like small independent islands, but like no.
2:28:27
People still want large brands who can perform revenue, right? Dr.
2:28:31
Squatch is that and like if you can get to $500 million in revenue in consumer, it's typically one brand.
2:28:37
There's typically a lot of profit tied to it.
2:28:39
Like Hexclad, >> open store open.
2:28:40
store, store, which was the URL, now um reroutes to jackarcher.
2:28:46
com, which looks like a men's, uh which was one of their brands, >> wear brands.
2:28:51
It's a it's a it's a dude.
2:28:53
It's a jack dude in Apollo with some socks and stuff, >> which we love.
2:28:56
>> Looks pretty cool, actually. >> Uh how are you?
2:28:57
So, earlier on the show, we ran through a list.
2:28:59
Uh uh Trump calling for lower rates while the markets are ripping.
2:29:04
Robin Hood CEO raising for a math uh AI company a $900 million valuation.
2:29:10
Andrew Wilkinson's giving out stock tips.
2:29:12
Uh Harry Stebings calling for 8 trillion.
2:29:16
Nvidia Circle at 2,000 times price to earnings.
2:29:20
>> 2,000 times 200 times. >> No, it's 2,000.
2:29:23
Uh Satya's >> being smart doing some layoffs.
2:29:25
Then you have So Periq, Masa's uh top blasting uh your favorite uh Finn Fin Twit influencers launching Spaxs. >> Zuck's making offers. Are you feeling the top?
2:29:40
Are you are you worried right now or do you think we got some room to run?
2:29:45
>> Uh dude, that's a great question.
2:29:45
Um we probably got room to run, right? I mean, so >> let's go. We heard it. Oh, wait, wait.
2:29:56
So, we have an update on the gong.
2:29:58
Uh, good friend of the show told us that we have not been properly warming up our gong before we hit it.
2:30:05
>> Apparently, there's a risk of of breaking >> breaking it or just making it sound poorly.
2:30:08
So, you have to just give it a couple taps to get it warmed up. >> There we go. There we go. >> And you can hit it.
2:30:17
>> I think it right that time. I don't know.
2:30:19
Let's correct us in the comments.
2:30:21
>> We did it poorly, but we're learning our gong tech.
2:30:23
Anyways, you said we have some room to run.
2:30:25
>> You said go ultra long, sell your house, sell your car.
2:30:28
>> Can we expect an NFT profile picture for Ridge is like really kind of the >> Yeah. >> What?
2:30:34
What the kind of question? >> Well, no. No.
2:30:35
It would be It would be an AI agent for Ridge. >> For wallets. >> Yeah. No, dude. Uh, wallet coin. So, I think Wallet coin. It's back to ICOs, guys. Initial coin offerings. >> Yeah. Oh, well. >> Yeah.
2:30:49
How do you how do you I mean I think like uh Ridge has just navigated so through so many different crazy cycles that it's probably business as usual.
2:31:00
Maintain a strong balance sheet, you know, just stay profitable, grow, you know, all the things that that a business should do.
2:31:07
But uh h how do you plan around uh h how like do you update your kind of thinking or strategy at all around cycles?
2:31:16
We were asking Ryan Peterson earlier this week how he was, you know, if he thinks that, you know, if rates do come down as a little treat for having a strong economy.
2:31:24
Uh, you know, there's certain brands that are going to benefit from that, retailers.
2:31:30
Um, but I'm curious how you think about it.
2:31:33
>> Yeah, you know, rates coming down just open up financial markets again, right?
2:31:36
So, like it looks like the IPO windows open.
2:31:38
Everybody's you know, rushing to the market. Bitcoin all-time highs. Fantastic.
2:31:42
But >> you know, we're getting a lot of inbound interest from PE groups and banks because >> they think interest rates will come down.
2:31:50
That makes leverage buyouts work again, right? >> Okay. Oh, so it's LBOS's. >> Yeah. Yeah.
2:31:55
So like private credit has dominated uh the private equity market for the past like three years because it's too expensive to buy stuff.
2:32:01
You can lend out money, right?
2:32:03
You have this big balance sheet.
2:32:04
They want to go back into buying assets and restarting that clock.
2:32:08
So that'll probably happen on if the economy can rip.
2:32:11
Financial markets look tasty, you know what I mean?
2:32:13
There's a lot of really cool things uh going on, but job data still like you know ADP put out their June numbers and like it doesn't look good, right?
2:32:22
So I think >> we do end up getting rate cuts just because like the financial markets are like, you know, removed away from what's happening, you know, uh in a lot of businesses, right?
2:32:34
So I think we'll get bad jobs reports. >> Yeah.
2:32:36
>> Yeah. What about rates on like buy now pay later and just like the general consumer ability to like click the checkout button on an e-commerce site like is are like in theory I would imagine buy now pay later products being highly sensitive to interest rates and
2:32:53
yet it's always felt like don't think about the interest rate when you click this button >> right because the whole thing was that the interest rate was obscured right like for a customer on CLA they pay a 0% interest rate and it's built into this payment processing rate that we pay, right? So, like the whole idea is that
2:33:07
So, like the whole idea is that if I charge a brand 6%.
2:33:09
I think Shop Pay is like 6%.
2:33:12
Shop Pay has pay in four, right?
2:33:14
These these people pay me in four months, I have a 6% interest rate.
2:33:16
You know, it works out to being 20, you know, because they're paying back early.
2:33:21
Maybe it's 20, maybe it's 25%. Who really knows?
2:33:22
So, there's like built-in interest rates that like uh the the brand's really paying.
2:33:27
Um, >> so if interest rates come down, you would you might expect those rates to come down and then uh and then uh companies are pushing that harder.
2:33:37
>> Dude, if interest rates come down, buy now pay later becomes a a good business.
2:33:41
Right now, it's probably not that good of a business because the payment contracts are locked in, right?
2:33:44
Like Shopify for the next four years, I have to give them 6% or whatever it is of whatever the buy now pay later is.
2:33:50
And if interest rates come down, they're just I mean, I can't renegotiate that.
2:33:56
So, they'll just be printing money on that thing.
2:33:57
Uh but look, never bet against the American consumer.
2:33:59
We love buying Prime Day is four days this year, baby. Prime >> four days. Four days. Uh last last question.
2:34:06
Need to get the update on what percent like how much value Ridge is getting from AI like Gen AI right now.
2:34:16
Uh there were some big promises earlier this year from a variety of companies.
2:34:20
Uh but I'm curious like what the actual Yeah.
2:34:24
What what is the core value that you're getting today?
2:34:26
Is it just more diversity of creative being able to test more or is it kind of business as usual? >> Yeah.
2:34:34
So, I mean the two buckets like data analysis, it's fantastic, right?
2:34:37
I'm running all of my data through like a bunch of AI tools.
2:34:40
It makes reporting way easier.
2:34:41
It makes getting like what's going to sell, inventory buying, all that stuff is way easier with AI, right?
2:34:47
I can just upload, hey, here's the 12 months of sales data. What should I buy?
2:34:52
And it can actually start doing that for me.
2:34:53
And it's replaced inventory managers.
2:34:55
I've removed in inventory managers from my team.
2:34:56
I have, you know, one person director in charge of all that stuff now, but it has replaced people.
2:35:01
On the creative side, V3 is fantastic.
2:35:03
So, like we're doing hooks on V3, you know, um it's really good at like if you have still still photography and you want to add a little bit of motion, GIFs, whatever, like it's great at doing >> And you know, like I said, hooks are really fantastic.
2:35:17
Static images, it just makes you we can output way more static images than ever before.
2:35:21
Um, but we're still not at the place where like I mean I spent $150,000 on photo shoots last month, right?
2:35:29
Like >> how much did you spend on AI tooling?
2:35:32
Probably in the thousands or something.
2:35:35
>> Yeah, hundreds, right? Hundreds.
2:35:36
>> But like we we have cars in the desert off-roading.
2:35:39
Like AI is not doing those videos yet.
2:35:41
I don't know if they ever will. Um, >> it's funny.
2:35:44
We we made that video for Wander and a large amount of people thought that it was AI generated. Yeah.
2:35:51
>> And I'm like, if you find me the person that is making that one-shotting any of those scenes and doing it at that level >> level of consistency, >> we will invest our entire balance sheet >> into your company.
2:36:04
Um, >> but uh but yeah, that that's good to hear.
2:36:08
That the data analysis side is interesting.
2:36:09
That makes I mean that that's historically just been like one of the hardest problems like the number one thing that will hold a lot of brands back this year is just not having the right inventory.
2:36:19
So that there's like demand, there's general demand for what they make and sell.
2:36:23
They just don't have enough of the right things.
2:36:26
>> So just getting better there will will make a huge impact. >> Yeah.
2:36:28
All all all the tools are getting better.
2:36:30
Whether it's like Excel or your analytics tool or your creative tool, your Photoshop's getting better.
2:36:34
Content aware Phil has been around for a long time now.
2:36:37
You have it on, you know, steroids, but um yeah, still a lot of work to actually get results from from that.
2:36:44
And so you still have people in the loop. >> Yeah, dude.
2:36:47
And I think AI like uh editing is going to be huge, right?
2:36:49
Like >> you know, you shoot a lot of content.
2:36:53
You guys shot that commercial, right?
2:36:54
You probably shot hours, right, to get to get a one minute clip.
2:36:56
Uh it's going to make editing way easier.
2:36:59
So productivity gains are here and they're coming.
2:37:04
>> We're probably another another two years before humans are not actually pulling out cameras. >> Two years.
2:37:09
That's pretty fast, >> dude.
2:37:12
I mean, if you ask Sam Alman, I mean, we'll see if Open AI is going to be around in two years, dude.
2:37:16
There might not be anybody left.
2:37:18
>> There might not be anybody left. That's true. >> Yeah. I don't know.
2:37:20
I think people will probably be still be doing photos in a few years.
2:37:25
I'd probably take the over on that one.
2:37:27
But, uh, certainly there will need to be more of a story behind why there's a photo taken.
2:37:34
Is it of someone that you know exists?
2:37:36
But if it's for something generic like the stock photography will truly go away. >> Yeah.
2:37:43
We're we're moving from the, you know, you can't trust images online because of filters and just like Photoshop >> to you can't trust a photo because it's may or may not be real entirely.
2:37:54
Like it could have just been a a hallucination from a machine.
2:38:00
>> But does it matter if you just want to see a picture of a forest?
2:38:02
Generic trees in the background to, you know, tell you to give you a vibe of what this Dr. Squatch smells like.
2:38:09
You know, it's fresh forest.
2:38:11
I'm I'm gonna make a plug.
2:38:13
There's an AI artist on Twitter.
2:38:13
It's uh >> I think the handle's like this photo does not exist. Okay.
2:38:18
They've produced some amazing photography, right?
2:38:20
Like that actually like it's art.
2:38:22
It makes you feel something.
2:38:24
A lot of it soulless, but these guys do a great job. So check that out.
2:38:27
This photo does not exist. >> Yeah.
2:38:28
I mean that that that that's definitely like the pitch in midjourney is like giving people like the tool to create something completely new and like leaving that inspiration that the that the like the human brings to the tool uh to create something new.
2:38:44
But it's very hard for someone to just go and say make me a viral video, make me a beautiful image.
2:38:48
Like that's not the prompt yet. >> Not yet. But we'll see.
2:38:53
>> Anyways, >> anything else?
2:38:54
>> It's great to see you wallet man.
2:38:54
Let's hang in person very soon.
2:38:56
Yeah, let's hang out soon. >> Tennis, guys. Sunday.
2:38:59
I'll see you Sunday time. Great. Have a great Friday. >> Bye. >> Cheers.
2:39:04
>> On the AI note, um we should we should cover some of the back and forth around Grock 4 versus 03.
2:39:11
>> Tim Sweeney, founder of Epic Games, says, "Grock 4 feels like artificial intelligence to me.
2:39:15
It's clearly not just constructing statistically likely connections, but it's drawing fairly deep insights on problems I hadn't seen before in ways I haven't seen elsewhere. Here's an example.
2:39:25
uh and it's a very detailed example.
2:39:26
The biggest shortcoming I see is the adoption of confused musings from online forums as facts coupled with the with the inability to derive deep insights from intermingled pros and graphics and sources.
2:39:37
It needs contextual skepticism and more multimodal visual learning.
2:39:41
Also, I bet there are hundreds of thousands of topics where a human professional could write a definitive guide book on topics that online forum posters frequently confuse and that could be used to fine-tune a lot of the lowquality user content driven nonsense out of AI models out of current AI models.
2:39:57
So, bullish on the on the fine-tuning labs that are generating data.
2:40:01
Uh, what's interesting is Tyler Cowan says 03 is still better.
2:40:03
So, he's still in the 03 camp.
2:40:05
Um, >> and more XAI news.
2:40:07
This is breaking as of 10 minutes ago.
2:40:12
Elon Musk's XAI seeks up to $200 billion valuation in next fundraising. >> Wow. Okay. >> Uh, early talks. Yep. >> Early talks. >> Early talks.
2:40:22
>> Uh, to boost its value from as as much as 10 times from last year.
2:40:26
>> They're on the frontier.
2:40:26
Let's see how much money they can make from this.
2:40:28
>> This is the the most val the highest value that's ever been applied to X, Twitter, the Everything app.
2:40:34
>> Well, it's not it's not pre-revenue now. They're making money. >> Yeah. >> Right.
2:40:37
Um there was more back and forth between two former guests of the show.
2:40:42
Amjad says, "I suspect uh it's part of the reason they crush benchmarks.
2:40:45
Truth seeeking is all is an all or nothing proposition and it's crucial for general intelligence."
2:40:50
Will Brown says, "I think it's probably more than 200,000 H100s for RL and inference than the dope be than the don't be woke system prompt.
2:40:56
I do think this is some pretty marketing uh pretty clever marketing slight of hand by XAI.
2:41:01
Grock has been in the news lately for being edgy.
2:41:03
Grock is also now in the news for being incredibly smart.
2:41:07
They would like you to think that these things are deeply related.
2:41:08
That they figured out how to scale RL like this in such a short amount of time is in fact an impressive feat of research and engineering.
2:41:15
There is no reason to think that it's uh that it's related to the willingness to say controversial thing things other than via the absence of efforts typically spent on guard rails.
2:41:26
So yeah, maybe they just sent it fully into just just you know training RL let's hit this as hard as possible.
2:41:31
and we covered this that the RL spend was apparently the same as the inference spend for this training run.
2:41:36
So, uh kind of new new attempt and obviously a great model um but maybe not really tied to the fact that they were trying to make like a an anti-woke model specifically just the fact that it's it's a lot of great math going on.
2:41:52
>> Well, more breaking news.
2:41:52
Uh the US Geiger Capital is reporting on X.
2:41:55
The US just posted a surprise surplus of 27 billion for the month of June.
2:42:00
Total receipts were 526 billion.
2:42:01
Total outlays were 499 billion.
2:42:04
That's a free cash flow for the United States of America. >> Yeah, >> that's wild.
2:42:10
That's >> absolutely wild.
2:42:14
>> Well, more breaking news.
2:42:14
You can go to biggetbzel. com.
2:42:15
Your bezel concierge is available now to source you any watch on the planet. Seriously, any watch.
2:42:21
>> This is the time to uh develop a strategic reserve of Daytonas. >> For sure. >> The Daytona reserve.
2:42:27
And I mean, we shouldn't we shouldn't break this, but a good friend of the show is becoming a watch guy, and we're very excited to break the news when it when it goes live. Have him on.
2:42:34
We'll have to have him on talk about it with the hitter.
2:42:35
Uh Mark German is talking about Tim Cook.
2:42:39
The rhetoric that Tim Cook should be replaced is just nonsensical. Replace him with who? Steve Jobs.
2:42:43
Steve Jobs sadly isn't walking through that door.
2:42:45
I thought this was a good take that I've agreed with for a while is that uh you know Tim Cook is it is such a large organization, so deeply entrenched in their massive supply chain.
2:42:55
He is the one who built that supply chain.
2:42:57
He is, you know, maybe missing the mark on AI.
2:43:02
Might have to partner with some folks, might have to spend a bunch of money, but fundamentally, he's running the core business very well.
2:43:08
And that relates to the new plans for 2026, the first half.
2:43:13
They're going to release a flurry of new products.
2:43:15
Mark has a story in Bloomberg.
2:43:17
He says Apple plans an M5 MacBook Pro and MacBook Air, A19, iPhone 17e, new new Mac external monitor. That'll be interesting.
2:43:25
I wonder if they're going to refresh that crazy display.
2:43:26
The the what's it called? The not the Apple Pro.
2:43:32
The Apple Pro Display XDR.
2:43:32
That's the one that's like 5K. Yeah.
2:43:34
If they make just a 55 in version of that, it's game over.
2:43:40
Like people would definitely mount that on the wall.
2:43:41
But right now it's I think it's like 32 in. Pretty big.
2:43:43
Great for like, you know, working.
2:43:45
And then we have the studio displays over there that are also very good.
2:43:49
Um, but they haven't refreshed the the the Pro Display XDR in a long time. People still love it.
2:43:54
Uh, they're also launching new low-end iPads and an M4 M4 iPad Airs as part of the f flurry of new products.
2:44:00
I think this is all kind of expected, but interesting.
2:44:04
What else is >> Michael La from Boy is doing some market research.
2:44:08
He says, "Would you pay for a mini Archimedes that plugged into a wall and kill mosquitoes?" Cool concept.
2:44:12
Uh, >> I didn't know what an Archimedes was. Like missile battery.
2:44:17
Yeah, it must be but >> lasers or something.
2:44:21
>> I think something like that.
2:44:21
I mean this is this is the future that we want.
2:44:23
This is this is you know making >> also bring Oh, we had so we had Michael we had so Aurelius Systems we had him on the show a long time ago >> and uh yeah this is we need to take the best defense tech and and use it to uh for for >> this is like Matt Freriedman coded meets Palmer Lucky coded.
2:44:44
It's like melding the two things together just like tiny robotics for like specific use cases but defense coded. Very cool.
2:44:50
Um anyway, uh we should debate this question from Ben South or this this historical anecdote.
2:44:58
If distribution were really the only moat, we'd all be using apps from celebrities.
2:45:02
He he calls out Bizzle, which was apparently Justin Bieber's product.
2:45:07
And then and then uh >> it's not clocking to you, John. >> Not clocking to me. What does that mean? >> You're so offline.
2:45:13
So Justin Bieber launched a new album today and he leveraged the the kind of crash out that he had in front of Neu when he was said it's not clocking to you that I'm standing on business.
2:45:22
>> Oh, standing on business.
2:45:22
Yeah, >> but uh we got to bring Bizzle back. >> Okay.
2:45:26
>> I it might still be in the app store. Probably not.
2:45:29
>> And then there was uh uh the camera app. >> Yeah.
2:45:33
What was it actually called?
2:45:34
>> I forget what it's called, but uh disposable. Yeah.
2:45:37
Was it just Dispo eventually?
2:45:39
Because it was originally launched David's disposables. Uh it's interesting.
2:45:43
It's like yes, you can get the initial onboarding, but if the flywheel isn't there for the true social growth, like the true uh what's it called?
2:45:51
The the the R not the viral coefficient.
2:45:54
If the viral coefficient isn't actually greater than one, uh you'll just need to continually be refilling the top of funnel and it just will never grow. Um underrated.
2:46:02
There's like there's like many more celebrity apps.
2:46:05
The Jeremy Rener app, are you familiar with that?
2:46:08
It was like it was like a clone of of Instagram, but it was just Jeremy Rener content. It's pretty sick. >> Interesting.
2:46:15
>> It was just for like Jeremy Rener fans.
2:46:16
They could just see his private Instagram like feed basically.
2:46:18
Uh pretty funny, but yeah. Uh it's interesting.
2:46:23
It's like begs the question like what is the ideal celebrity um the the the ideal celebrity app or way to get into technology?
2:46:30
technology? I'm still very bullish on Saquon Barkley's strategy of just like invest in power lock companies that are already like kind of deemed successful and like ordained by the by the tech in industry and the tech complex and just
2:46:44
get in as opposed to like trying to all of a sudden become a tech CEO or like a co-founder of something that you're just kind of taking weight on the you're just kind of dead weight on the cap table and you're not really driving it. It's like
2:46:53
It's like if you're if you're good at being a celebrity just just focus on that and then you know invest separately. Um anyway, interesting. Um what else?
2:47:04
>> Well, I wanted to highlight a market uh there's a market up now of the next C a poly market of the next CEO of X that only has >> um X would be like the social app. Yeah.
2:47:16
Unclear if there would be if if Elon just becomes the the the CEO broadly.
2:47:23
there's no new CEO because you know uh you know for whatever reason they just don't um backfill uh Linda but then Shriram Krishnan sitting at 17%. No way.
2:47:35
>> So very very very low volume.
2:47:35
Nikita's up there too at 10%.
2:47:37
Um but I think the company I I think the social app of of of X now now that it's com you know combined entity it still needs a figurehead.
2:47:48
It needs it needs a it needs a core champion.
2:47:50
So, I'm hoping they find somebody new there.
2:47:53
>> There are some contenders that were highlighted by the Wall Street Journal.
2:47:57
Uh pro I don't know if they're on this market particularly.
2:47:59
Uh contenders could include members of Yakarino's leadership team such as John Niti, global head of revenue operations and ad innovation at X.
2:48:07
Uh Angela Zapeda X's global head of marketing or Mon'nique Pinterelli, head of America's at X, industry insider set.
2:48:17
So, those are kind of the the rumors that the Wall Street Journal is is talking about.
2:48:20
Um, but uh it'd be it'd be way more fun to get uh to get a poster in there.
2:48:27
>> Definitely a >> potential guest. >> Posters in control.
2:48:29
>> Not one of these business people.
2:48:30
Although uh we forgot to highlight this, but um uh Linda Yakarino during her 12 years at NBC Universal, she had the nickname the velvet hammer, which I think is amazing.
2:48:41
She earned a reputation as a hard charging executive with networking and negotiating negotiating chops.
2:48:45
The velvet hammer because she would always dress in velvet, I guess, which is so sad. >> Velvet hammer.
2:48:52
>> You got to always have attire that's so iconic that it works its way into a nickname.
2:48:57
We were talking about nicknames this morning and uh and and they come from they need to come from specific stories.
2:49:02
You can't just like, you know, pull them out of a hat.
2:49:04
They need to they need to really be evocative.
2:49:07
And the Velvet Hammer tells me exactly what she's up to.
2:49:10
Definitely >> dress to the nines gonna get the ad deal done.
2:49:14
>> Well, this is a good post to end on from San Kulp.
2:49:16
You are terminally online if you know more than five of these.
2:49:21
>> TBPN High Agency Hegelian Egirl Claude Code Labou I still don't know how to pronounce that.
2:49:28
I just see it written everywhere.
2:49:29
Gro for Prime Intellect Calame that guy who claims to have implemented autofills and OTPs.
2:49:37
We somebody uh a friend of the show sent us that guy's making that claim >> and then I noticed that it was getting um community noted because the guy was just like lying because that's like I mean it's a great >> I think it was I think it was hotly debated whether or not he was lying like obviously at Apple like multiple people work on every project.
2:49:56
So people were like yes well technically someone else has a claim but also this person might have a claim and there's no evidence that this guy doesn't have the right to claim it.
2:50:05
Anyway, we are clearly terminally online because we know everything about this and diving into a conversation about it. >> Of course. Well, >> it's Friday.
2:50:13
It's Friday afternoon or evening depending where you are in the world.
2:50:17
And >> try terminally touching grass this weekend. Yes. Go outside. Get some sunlight.
2:50:23
>> Get some sunlight in the morning. Five minutes. >> Five minutes. Three to five minutes. >> That's enough. Don't do more than that. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. Get back inside. Doom scroll.
2:50:30
>> Have a great weekend everyone.
2:50:30
Leave us questions Apple podcast and Spotify. See you on Monday. >> We'll see you then. >> Goodbye.