0:00
pretty obvious to see why people aren't exactly jumping to watch this.
Search this video
0:01
The other thing I thought was interesting is Netflix ran an analysis on F1 and they found that 3/4 of of live F1 viewers already are subscribed to Netflix.
0:13
So Netflix is really not interested in paying to get this as a streaming property because it's not going to drive incremental subscribers to them.
0:21
And to your point about the million, it might not be a So if you take a million and you just assume the same saturation number, that's only 250,000 new subscriptions.
0:31
Netflix is what what's their arpoo?
0:34
Like a hundred bucks a year, right? Yeah.
0:37
So that's maybe more than that now.
0:40
Yeah, maybe a little bit more.
0:42
But if it's 250,000 people that would subscribe potentially if you convert all of them, that's still only 25 million. Yeah. That they would make.
0:50
And then maybe they make that over a few years, but they would have to have keep that person subscribed at extremely high margin for eight years to make.
0:54
They also have to pay the same Yeah.
0:56
rights fee for the second year, too. It just does not matter.
1:02
The math doesn't math out.
1:03
The other thing I thought was interesting, this was your take.
1:04
We were talking about this offline, but um it's very possible for for the American audience where F1 is airing at these odd hours that Drive to Survive is just a much far superior way to watch and follow along with the sport. Yep.
1:20
Than trying to get up, oh, I'm going to get up at 5:00 a. m.
1:24
on a Sunday and watch this.
1:26
You got to be a really really you got to be a super fan to want to do that consistently.
1:31
And I mean, I got into F1 through Driver to Just Arrive, like a lot of people.
1:34
And what I realized was in the first season of Drive to Survive, they didn't have access to the top drivers, but that was actually an advantage because this was in this was in the Hamilton era where he was running away with it and there was no drama at the top of the leaderboard.
1:49
They were creating drama by focusing Exactly. Yeah.
1:53
to to the sort of bottom.
1:53
What's going on with Hos?
1:56
What's going on with, you know, uh all these all these like uh middle of the pack teams and and people getting cut? It's much more dramatic.
2:05
Lewis Hamilton, he's got a job every year.
2:07
There's not much drama there.
2:07
Uh, and it was interesting because uh those narratives, if you are a dedicated dedicated F1 fan, you can pull that out through the commentary and you can follow and you can see, oh yeah, I I know that Hamilton's going to win first, but what I'm really watching for is what's going on in the middle of the pack.
2:25
As a as a random viewer who just turns it on, it's very it's very hard to get at that level.
2:30
It's I mean it's almost like watching the NFL and trying to understand like how is the O line matching up with the with the defensive line on this particular game. Yeah.
2:37
The other thing with America, you have intense competition, right?
2:41
Because you have Indie Car, you have NASCAR. Totally.
2:44
And uh those are all people that would be watching F1, but they're just more interested in in these sort of driving events that are that are more culturally native to America.
2:53
But the I mean the boom in F1 really can't be overstated.
2:58
I mean, they basically doubled viewership.
3:00
So, in 2018, a little over half a million people were watching Formula 1 live on ESPN.
3:04
By 2022, it was almost 1. 2 million. Yeah.
3:11
So, huge, huge gain, but it's since fallen off and actually plateaued right around that 1.
3:15
1 million number that we cited.
3:17
So, ESPN walked away late last year from its exclusive negotiation window for a new package.
3:21
Netflix, Warner Brothers Discovery, Fox, and Amazon.
3:25
com and NBC are lukewarm on the offering, too, at least at the current price, according to people familiar with the company's discussions.
3:30
The NBA and NFL have inked giant media deals in recent years, but it is becoming harder for entertainment companies to justify big spending on other sports as networks face continued challenges from cord cutting.
3:42
And so, um, yeah, the other challenge here is is if you're an advertiser and you want to be a part of F1, you can just pick your favorite team and get involved with them.
3:50
There's so many different products like you can you can even just do like one race like a Super Bowl where you have to run if you want to be involved with the Super Bowl you have to run uh you know a Super Bowl ad really not the same way here because you can be you know on you know in the car basically you can have logo placement.
4:06
I was I was nerding out about this on on the race. Yeah.
4:10
Last week because uh the the cockpit of um of these cars has logo visibility for for like 20 different just almost over the top.
4:22
But um but as an advertising enjoyer, it's uh but also there's no there's no halftime show.
4:29
There's no part where, oh, I really want to see the last lap, so I'm gonna stick through all these extra ads because they stuff the halftime show with a bunch of ads during the Super Bowl, and those are probably some of the most lucrative because everyone's watching and they're waiting for the next uh for for the next quarter to start.
4:42
Um my my take on this is that uh going forward I have this idea that creating a funnel and like vertically owning all of the surrounding media around a sports league is going to be incredibly valuable.
4:58
I don't know exactly who's going to win or how it'll play out, but I'll give you an example of how I think this could work. Yeah.
5:03
Uh one would be uh so Apple TV owns the rights to MLS.
5:09
Now, MLS is not the most popular soccer league, but uh you could imagine if they somehow got the rights to NFL, we'll use soccer as an example.
5:20
So, as soon as they got the rights to MLS, I was saying they should do a drive to survive for the MLS. Yeah.
5:24
Take us through the drama and the characters in the MLS and and give us the reality TV version to get people in.
5:32
And then they should also do the sitcom version. Uh what's that?
5:38
What's that show on on Apple TV?
5:40
Uh about the Ed the happy guy who coaches soccer.
5:44
You know what I'm talking about? Yeah. Yeah. The UK or whatever. I never watch that.
5:47
How can I not remember that? Uh Apple TV soccer show. Ted Lasso. Yeah. Yeah.
5:53
So, I honestly think that it's possible just like Drive to Survive got people into F1.
6:00
I think you could get into soccer from Ted Lasso.
6:02
go from Ted Lasso to the MLS version of Drive to Survive and then start watching MLS because it's like this smooth gradient of getting you into the content and working you up and I happening.
6:16
I just think at the end of the day, you know, talking about uh there's a very real difference in watching reality TV about F1 versus being actually you don't actually need to be interested in the sport to be interested in the sort of characters and the local and all that stuff. Sure.
6:33
But I mean it seems like if I'm trying to get someone interested in F1 and watching an actual race, the best way to get them into it is say, "Hey, start with Drive to Survive." Yeah. Right.
6:44
And then it's going to be a funnel and not everyone's going to convert, but it will it will convert.
6:47
The problem that F1's struggling with right now is that they don't own the full funnel and they've sold the rights peace meal.
6:52
And so they can't they can't really do some what they should what they should be doing is saying, "Hey Netflix, if you want Drive to Survive, you also have to get the rights to F1."
7:03
And there needs to be a call to action right there.
7:04
Hey, click a like click remind me when the when the next race goes live.
7:07
Uh, one point that I think is important, Paul in the chat noted out, um, that, uh, they've they've Netflix basically attempted to run back the success of Drive to Survive with other sports.
7:18
Tennis is one, golf is one, uh, and it hasn't actually played out in the same way.
7:24
Is that because those sports are already popular in America? That's possible.
7:28
Um, it's also possible that just like the first sort of like crack at a relatively novel format.
7:33
And I also think F1 is exotic.
7:36
It's sort of European, right? Americans like Yep.
7:40
love the idea of the European lifestyle, but then when you're just following along some like golfer from Florida, it doesn't quite it's it's not it doesn't quite hit the same.
7:48
I mean, I remember when they in those deals, I was like, "This is genius. I love Drive to Survive.
7:53
I'm totally going to be into the golf one and the tennis one."
7:54
And I never watched them.
7:57
I downloaded them on my phone once.
7:58
I never watched them because I was just ah John uh in the chat has a good point.
8:01
He says, "How about TBPN makes a bid for the rights?"
8:05
um so we can get some TVPN on the weekends. Um we'll see.
8:06
Um we're very mindful of profitability, but uh if they can get into the 8 figure range, you know, we would we would consider a bid.
8:16
Well, it's coming down because research firm Ampear Analysis estimated the F1 US rights being worth a hundred million a year, but not the $180 million that the industry reports earlier said it was seeking.
8:29
Uh Derek Chang took over as chief executive of Liberty in February.
8:33
Uh he said he's looking for the best mix of exposure to new fans and the highest paying deal, but recognizes the industry is shifting and challenging for both broadcasters and streamers.
8:41
The whole media world is a very fluid situation.
8:45
And so uh yeah, this is interesting the fragmentation.
8:47
So the F1 races are on ESPN, Drive to Survive is on Netflix, and then the F1 movie starring Brad Pitt was on Apple.
8:56
And it's like that should all have just been in one place because I could totally see the funnel where you're like I like Brad Pitt. I'll watch the movie. Oh, okay.
9:03
What should I watch next? Drive to Survive. Okay.
9:04
What should I watch next?
9:05
The actual the actual race.
9:07
And that type of like funnel I feel would like I feel like it would create more value.
9:12
I'm not exactly sure though. Yeah.
9:13
I'm surprised they actually haven't um maybe there's something in the works here for UFC as well.
9:19
Some type of reality TV around the fighters.
9:21
They have their big show um called uh Dana White's Contender Series, but then Um, it's very possible that UFC goes to Netflix as well, like the actual live product, because due to uh it's somewhat unfortunate for the UFC, but I think the prevalence of illegal streaming, which is also big for F1.
9:38
Um, but the prevalence of illegal streaming is meaning that people just aren't buying pay-per-views at the same rate.
9:46
Um, so that should be a good, you know, property for Netflix as well, and I could see them building an ecosystem around that.
9:51
So the journal goes on to write uh the lack of fervor over F1's US live rights live TV rights stands in contrast with global excitement around the sport models and actors clamber for spots in the paddic close to the action as men pile into single seat cars and navigate circuits in destinations including Australia, Mexico, and Italy.
10:10
High-end brands vy for prime promotional placement.
10:13
Netflix's Drive to Survive documentary series helped catapult F1's popularity in the US.
10:17
Then came Gran Turismo, a 2023 Sony film based on the story of a gamer who got a shot at competing in real life.
10:23
I actually saw that movie. It was pretty good.
10:24
Uh, this June, Warner Brothers is distributing an Apple film, F1, starring Brad Pitt.
10:28
But again, very decentralized approach to to to selling the rights and like actually pushing this media around.
10:35
Despite the Hollywood hype around F1, the races themselves aren't blockbuster draws.
10:40
That is partly because of timing.
10:40
Many races air early Sunday mornings for US viewers.
10:44
not really a great solution to that.
10:47
I mean, there's a lot that they could do to make F1 more there are some very savage solutions, right?
10:51
And again, the UFC has done this where they've had uh they've forced UK fans historically to watch the title fights at like 5:00 a. m.
11:01
So, it's basically like, hey, come on a Saturday night. Yep.
11:03
But then we're going to air the like it needs to be airing at like, you know, a reasonable time, Pacific Standard Time or Eastern Standard Time.
11:12
So, we're actually you have to stay in the stadium until like 5 6 a. m.
11:16
And it's crazy because it's the fighters are dealing with this, the fans are dealing with this.
11:20
You're a fighter and you basically have to pull an allnighter ahead of a title fight, which can be like, you know, what about when they do it in the Middle East, it must be even worse.
11:27
No, the Middle East though is the thing.
11:28
The Middle East, uh, generally they're such large backers of that Dana White just says, "No, we're going to host it at 7:00 p. m. your time."
11:37
So, when fights happen in the Middle East, the fight card will typically be at like 10:00 a. m.
11:40
Pacific or something like that.
11:42
If it's on the weekend, that's not too bad.
11:43
But yeah, it's still it's still very early.
11:44
It's just funny that that uh the UFC says uh you know it's going to be it's going to be on like you know North American time zones except if uh you know we're going um but uh uh so the the coming US rights deal represents a small slice of F1's revenue but Liberty has focused on growing F1 in the country and the new deal will help determine the sport's next chapter here.
12:05
The success of Drive to Survive in earlier reports prompted speculation that Netflix might want to bid on F1 rights, but it but it isn't currently planning to bid according to a person familiar with the matter. This is what you said.
12:16
Threequarters of F1 fans already have Netflix subscriptions.
12:18
ESPN still hasn't completely ruled out new talks on F1, according to people familiar with the matter, but it's making tough choices. Disney signed a $2.
12:28
6 $6 billion deal with the NBA last season, and ESPN recently ended its 35-year relationship with Major League Baseball, saying it was unwilling to continue paying the $550 million the league wanted for a new games package.
12:40
It's also preparing to bring its programming onto a new streaming service.
12:43
ESPN might be more inclined to bid for F1 if the company thought it would drive subscriptions to that service. ESPN, that's crazy.
12:50
I didn't know that about the MLB.
12:52
Apparently, they still haven't figured out uh exactly where they're taking uh the TV rights for MLB.
13:01
So, there's this weird situation where ESPN is sitting there with the rights kind of letting the clock run down. Yep.
13:07
And I imagine they're sort of uh the the the leagues understand that that ESPN is probably the bidder of last resort being like, "Yeah, go run your little road show and we'll be here, but we're going to bid, you know, a fraction of of what you're asking for it."
13:23
So, yeah, there's we'll see.
13:25
There's there Ben Thompson's written a lot about this with um the the local sports uh the local like have you ever seen like Nessen, New England Sports Network?
13:36
Sports Network? It's like a regional sports network for cable and it's very high margin because uh the local fans pay and and basically the sports drive uh and then they just add on a bunch of channels that are basically like you know free and and and well this was a
13:53
theory with the athletic right was like hyper local sports are going to you know fans will have a much higher willingness to pay to get really close coverage around the leagues and and or specifically the teams and athletes that they really care about. And then
14:06
And then simultaneously, you know, Disney for a long time was uh partnered with Hulu and saying, "Hey, we're going to stay out of the streaming business.
14:12
We're just going to distribute through streaming like we do with TV with with like Comcast and cable networks."
14:18
And now they're saying, "Hey, we want Disney Plus. We want ESPN Plus.
14:22
We want you to subscribe to us directly and we'll take all of that."
14:26
Um, and so they're trying to get more leverage.
14:28
Everyone's duking it out in the in the media world.
14:29
Um, but there's a lovely photo of Charlotte Clair, the Ferrari Formula One driver there.
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14:57
com/ checking my sleep score, John. Check it out.
15:01
You're not going to like this. Why don't you go first? Uh, let me see. Mine. I woke up before. Oh, 77. Not good. Brutal.
15:09
I'm going to go proof of work here, everybody. 100. 100.
15:12
Uh, only on 7 hours and 16 minutes of sleep, but not bad.
15:18
You know, had the routine dialed.
15:19
For some reason, I woke up and I checked my eight sleep score and it was like, "Hey, we know you're still in bed.
15:25
Like, do you want to end this or do you want to try to go forward? Yeah. I was like, I'm good. You're good. You tapped out. I tapped out. I was couldn't do it.
15:34
Anyway, um you've got twins.
15:34
It uh it makes the game harder. It does.
15:37
It's just an entirely leg weight sleep. Think about it that way. It's rough. Uh but it's great.
15:45
Uh and the eightle has been fantastic.
15:47
It's been it's been a major major upgrade.
15:50
genuinely I have a big especially. com/tvPN. Yeah, go check it out.
15:55
Anyway, uh let's move from Giga Chads sleeping on eights to Gigafactories being built in the EU.
16:02
Uh the EU is betting on Gigafactories to catch up with the United States, China in the AI race.
16:07
The block has been lagging behind since OpenAI's 2022 release of Chachi PT.
16:12
Some people some people might argue that they've been lagging behind since 1976. That's true. Yeah, that's true.
16:19
But uh the the European Union said it would focus on building artificial intelligence, data and computing infrastructure and making it easier for companies to comply with regulation classic in a bid to catch up with the US and China in the race.
16:30
The European Commission, the EU's executive arm said it wanted to develop a network of so-called AI gigafactories to help uh I like the vibes. I like the vibes here.
16:43
A network of so-called AI gigafactories to help companies train the most complex models.
16:47
Those facilities will be equipped with roughly 100,000 of the latest AI chips, around four times more than the number installed in AI factories being set up currently.
16:54
It's funny they're calling these AI factories.
16:58
I guess it is AI factories, but I mean it's very it's very with Elon, right?
17:03
Like uh what what's his terminology for it? Um for the uh the XAI. No, no, no. For for for Tesla.
17:14
Doesn't he set up Gigafactories?
17:14
Yeah, it's the Gigafactory.
17:16
That's just what he calls it, right? Yeah.
17:17
And so they're just copying that term directly. Yes. Interesting.
17:21
But I believe like you know in America we just call these data centers. Yeah.
17:25
But AI factory sounds pretty cool.
17:27
The announcement part of EU's AI continent action plan endorses uh underscores efforts from the block to position itself as a key player in the AI race against the US and China.
17:36
The EU has been lagging behind since OpenAI's 2022 release of Chad GPT ushered in a spending boom.
17:44
Earlier this year, Washington announced Stargate, an AI joint venture.
17:48
Pretty amazing that they're still crediting Washington with doing this even though it was Sam and Masa. Yeah.
17:53
An AI joint venture that aims to build data centers in the US for OpenAI, which is again crazy lime.
18:01
Incredible finesse from from Sam Alman.
18:03
Uh OpenAI, SoftBank Group, Oracle, and MGX are the initial equity funders in Stargate while ARM, Microsoft, and Nvidia are technology partners.
18:10
The companies are committing hundred billion dollars initially, but plan to invest up to 500 billion over the next four years.
18:17
You guys obviously know about Stargate already. Yeah.
18:19
Uh I mean, it makes sense if you're if you're in the EU and you see that announcement.
18:23
It's like it doesn't really matter that Washington isn't putting the money in or putting the deal together.
18:29
It just matters that like, hey, it's happening.
18:31
Seems Washington's excited about it.
18:33
Seems important and they're backing it and it's real.
18:36
And so you got to you got to answer.
18:38
And so their answer is to the EU in February pledged to mobilize uh$220 billion US dollars equivalent in euros in AI investments.
18:47
More than 20 investors earmarked 150 billion euros for AI related opportunities in Europe over the next 5 years while the block is setting up a new 20 billion euro fund to for five for up to five AI gigafactories.
19:02
gigafactories. member states will work with companies in public private partnerships to roll out the infrastructure given the elevated costs a senior EU official said and this has been happening all over there was like Falcon what was it Falcon 9B was like a
19:15
a a UAE funded LLM project and there's been there's been big big discussions about uh this was in Leopold Ashen Brener's uh situational awareness essay talking about um how major countries will want to have uh country level AI efforts. Yeah. And Alex uh from Scale AI Yeah.
19:35
And Alex uh from Scale AI was talking about a strategic data reserve uh as well.
19:39
So expect expect the EU to fast follow. Yeah.
19:43
I mean he was testifying in Congress about it.
19:45
Maybe they'll see that and and want to do something of their own over in the EU. Yep.
19:50
Uh this was a good quote.
19:50
The global race for AI is far from over, says Henna Verkunin, the EU executive vice president for tech sovereignty, security, and democracy.
20:00
That is a broad uh area of European expertise. Very European.
20:06
This action plan outlines key areas where efforts need to intensify to make Europe a leading AI continent. Uh I love Europe.
20:14
I want them to be an AI leader.
20:16
And uh I you know I imagine there's there's a lot of collaboration that can happen over time.
20:21
that can happen over time. I wonder how that collaboration will take form because there's like there's just general nationalist tendencies broadly like you know uh we've been hearing like Europe wants their own defense companies right um but what about at the how far
20:39
do you think they want to go down the stack like they want to train their own foundation model do they want their own data or are they okay with just a broad scrape of the public internet do they want to outsource the energy management to a US company, do they want to build their own? Like, this is a big these are
20:53
Like, this is a big these are big questions because when $200 billion is floating around, there's going to be some companies that are major major winners.
21:00
And if if this is truly like a an EUon project, that will probably mean huge growth for companies in Europe that are focused on data center buildouts, energy production, uh transformer manufacturing, right?
21:14
All these different elements of the data center supply chain.
21:16
Yeah, you can imagine Mistral will probably be a key player in a lot of this.
21:20
Uh I don't foresee XAI getting uh any of this 200 billion just given the EU and and Elon's uh current dynamic. Yeah.
21:30
Uh but and I wonder Yeah. I I wonder how uh Yeah.
21:36
uh Yeah. I mean with with with with Mistral I wonder um you know h how much of mistrol was probably trained on existing hyperscaler infrastructure and so it's a good point like Microsoft has data centers there there are cloud AWS
21:52
has data centers in Europe uh if you were not focused on specifically EU mandate you would probably just train on uh you know EU based hyper American hyperscaler infrastructure um but maybe this is a shift away from that I don't We'll have to see who knows. It seems
22:07
It seems like they want to build gigafactories as they said five.
22:10
But anyway, giga centers. Good luck to them.
22:13
Hopefully they build some stuff and catch up and and if you're building data centers in the EU, give us a shout.
22:19
We'll have you on the show. Yeah.
22:21
Yeah, I'd be interested to hear what's going on.
22:23
Um, but $200 billion floating around.
22:26
They got to control cost.
22:28
They got to get on ramp money. Save both.
22:29
Easy to use corporate cards, bill payments, accounting, and a whole lot more all in one place. Go to ramp. com. Go to ramp. com.
22:36
Uh well, we got a great show for you today, folks.
22:40
Let's let's run through who we got.
22:41
We got Blake from Brink Drones coming in.
22:43
He just announced a new fundraising round.
22:44
Uh we got Zach Weinberg from Cury talking to us.
22:48
Uh he just debated Keith Reo with Logan Bartlett all about tariffs.
22:51
We'll talk we'll ask him about that, but we'll also talk to him about that.
22:54
Debated uh Anthony Pompiano. He did.
22:56
I want to hear a breakdown of that.
22:58
He's been on the debate circuit.
22:59
I think this this is kind of like a you know hopefully will be more relaxing for him than his previous uh show appearances this week. Yeah.
23:07
Uh cuz we're not here to talk anything related to politics but I am interested to hear how he's updated his thinking, how he's thinking about the art of the squeal.
23:16
The art of the all other related topics.
23:19
Then we have Ian Cinnamon from Apex Space.
23:21
Uh Jen from Anderol who's runs design over there and has been putting together those fantastic Absolute tear. Absolute tear.
23:31
Uh and then we got Ryland. Is that right? From blw. ai. Yep.
23:33
So, uh Blue Water Autonomy. That's right.
23:38
Uh he is building autonomous ships for the open ocean. Uh very cool company.
23:43
Talked to Ryland for the first time about a month back.
23:48
Excited to have him on and and be able to talk about what they're working on.
23:52
Um he uh was at Amazon Robotics.
23:52
He had a company called uh Six River Systems which I believe yeah sold to Shopify for $450 million uh and he's put together a fantastic team.
24:05
He also was in uh the US Navy at the very start of his career.
24:10
So full circle moment uh which would be cool.
24:12
Then we're kind of staying in defense tech for maybe a full hour there.
24:16
Uh but we got Zach from Conductor AI uh company that helps with um uh form filing with the DoD.
24:21
And then we got Paul from Carbon Robotics building automated farm tractors.
24:26
It's a very cool company. Very big already. Uh very cool.
24:31
So Conductor AI founder by the way.
24:34
Uh Zack uh I forget somebody was on um saying that uh Chris Chris Baky on X was saying you have a guest that's not on X. This is alpha.
24:46
How do I invest 10 million?
24:48
So, Zachary uh from Conductor AI, not on X, but he might be after the show.
24:54
We've converted people before. Yep.
24:56
Wouldn't be the first time.
24:56
But anyway, let's run through some timeline before our first guest joins in six minutes.
25:01
Uh Jason Karman is hiring a storyboard artist and assistant writer for his company story.
25:05
Uh your days will be filled with drawing sci-fi story boards, writing creative outlines, briefs, and working directly with me on every project we're producing. Details below.
25:15
Uh share some amazing photos. Fantastic opportunity.
25:17
Yeah, if you're looking, if you've been thinking about getting into Hollywood, uh, news flash, Hollywood's dead.
25:24
Jason Karman's the future.
25:25
Uh, the only thing that you will see in theaters ever in the future will be produced by Jason because he's the only person uh, kind of embracing the modern landscape of film making in my opinion.
25:36
And so many people have said he's the next Steven Spielberg.
25:38
Yes, I think we've said that. Yes. among others.
25:42
Uh the next uh James Cameron has been floated around these comparisons. Yes. Yes. You know, George Lucas. Yes.
25:50
Um but uh young George Copala is in the conversation basically voner as well.
25:58
Going to be in the conversations with the greats after, you know, at least a couple more films. I think so. I think so.
26:03
But we're huge fans of Jason.
26:03
No, this is a cool opportunity.
26:05
I think it'll be interesting.
26:06
He's obviously going to push whoever takes this role to really leverage uh a lot of these new models have like incredible output.
26:14
I was about to say I bet there's so many storyboarding jobs that are stuck in the previous paradigm and they're fighting technology and you know if you go work with Jason he's going to be embracing all of that in a very positive way that still holds on to what the what the humans do best and and how can he create great content with these tools and he does view the AI products as tools. Uh so very exciting.
26:40
Uh anyway, uh we have a post here.
26:43
Consulting firms are cooked. Just absolutely cooked.
26:45
The Pentagon says it's ending 5.
26:47
1 billion dollars worth of it and consulting contracts with firms including Accenture and Deote.
26:53
Uh yeah, one one thing to note here uh Accenture has they did 60 nearly 65 billion in 2024 revenue and Deote did 67 billion in revenue.
27:05
So, uh, clearly, you know, they they do have a lot of big government contracts, but I I, you know, they're not completely 1 to 2% of their revenue, probably something like not completely cooked yet.
27:17
They're diversified, you know, and they're probably making 20 billion in new revenue from AI consulting.
27:23
That's also just just with the Pentagon. So, it's very possible.
27:27
Um, I wonder how much um we should try and make a poly market around this.
27:34
Where does the Pentagon's IT budget land in 2026?
27:35
That's what I want to know. That's a niche. That's niche.
27:41
Uh yeah, so Accenture, US federal government contracts accounted for 8% of their total revenue. So pretty significant.
27:49
Uh you know, unclear yet if if it's just the Pentagon that's cutting, but I would guess uh it's it's more groups. Yeah.
27:56
Uh, and you probably already know this, but the show is supported and sponsored by Poly Market.
28:04
We have a ticker down at the bottom.
28:04
Uh, interestingly, one of the markets that I've been following really closely has been which company has the best AI model by the end of April.
28:12
And then they also have by the end of the year.
28:14
And so what's interesting is you can kind of uh merge these different markets to create kind of a yield curve of AI progress.
28:22
And so Google is currently expected to have the best model by the end of April, but OpenAI is is expected to have the best model by the end of the year.
28:29
And so a lot of this comes down to when the various models are releasing, what the expectations are, uh e expectations about how different models will scale out, when the training runs end, and so it's one of the most interesting markets that I've been following on Poly Market. So go check it out.
28:45
Uh anyway, let's move over to Will Man.
28:47
The other one that's interesting, just because it's been such a meme, G GTA g GTA g GTA g GTA g GTA g GTA g GTA g GTA g GTA g GTA ga um 6 released in 2025 is sitting at a 68% chance.
28:57
I can't believe how long it's taken them to that.
28:58
Um I mean the expectations are so skyhigh at this point.
29:04
I'm interested to see how that release goes. Yeah.
29:05
Um but uh have you heard the creators of GTA talk about why it's so hard for them to release it and why they've kind of had like writer's block more or less? It's very interesting. I don't know.
29:17
Basically, they said that like GTA has always been a satire on society and they've had a lot of different So, you turn on the radio and they'll be making fun of all these different groups of people and they kind of make fun of everyone, but they'll be like business people that are heightened versions of business people in one of the GTA 5 missions.
29:35
in one of the GTA 5 missions. you hack into a uh a a tech company that's very clearly based on Facebook and they're talking about like stealing all your data and like owning your whole personality and all this stuff and it's very uh it's very funny um and it's all inest and the creators said that now
29:53
we're in this like culture war era where if you make fun of one side that immediately aligns you with the other side and they're and and getting that balance right and then also they said that the pace of the vibe shifting and social media happened so fast that if they like if they made GTA 6 and they
30:12
scripted out a bunch of stuff that was like making fun of uh like Trump in 2024 when they scripted it like well the way you make fun of Trump in 2024 is very different than the way you make fun of him in 2025 because he's a different person and everything's changed and like the memes are different and stuff and so
30:28
by the time you write the script bake that into the game create the the sequence of events people will say oh well like the way you're making fun of them makes it clear that you're thinking you're you're very partisan left or you're very partisan right and they just want to be like comedians essentially. Yeah. It's also interesting to be making Yeah.
30:44
It's also interesting to be making a game around a topic which I I just associate GTA with crime. Sure. You know. Yeah.
30:52
Like you know 12year-old kids 10 years ago were just going into GTA to just do crime. Yeah.
30:59
But at the same time, it was kind of like the I mean GTA 3 was very much a spin on um like old mafia movies like you know they it would be like oh it's the Godfather and so yes it does touch on crime but a lot of them feel like oh this is heat like I'm playing heat right now and it's like yeah it's bank robbery it is but but it's like it's kind of fun.
31:21
Anyway anyway uh we have uh uh we have Blake from Brink Drones here.
31:26
Let's bring him into the studio. How you doing Blake? Doing good.
31:29
It's great to see you guys. Great to see you too.
31:31
Um, uh, how are you doing?
31:34
What's the latest with the company?
31:35
Uh, and what did you announce this week? Yes.
31:37
So, uh, I I guess first of all, we released our our 911 response drone network.
31:43
Did that man maybe eight months ago, something like that, which is really the product that I started bringing to build.
31:48
So, uh, that was an important moment for me personally.
31:51
But kind of kind of what we designed and manufacture are uh drone recharging pods that we install on top of police and fire station roofs.
31:59
And then we integrate that network with computerated dispatch.
32:03
So the second someone calls 91, we grab the GPS coordinate that's associated with that 91 call and we can automatically launch a drone from the nearest recharging station to the emergency, send to that location at 60 miles an hour.
32:15
when it arrives, we can deliver Narcan, EpiPens, personal flotation devices, all sorts of stuff, and also just provide first responders a lot of additional information about the situation they might be walking into.
32:27
So, our drones have thermal imagers.
32:29
They can see hotspots and structure fires, communicate that to a fire department before they arrive, and then when they do arrive, help them point their hoses in the right direction.
32:36
Uh, and then on sort of the policing side, we can, you know, tell responding officers if someone is holding a lighter or a gun or anything like that before they even show up. So, that was huge.
32:48
Um, and what we just released or announced uh couple days ago is our latest funding round.
32:53
So, a new 75 million led by Index Ventures, but with significant backing from Motorola Solutions, which it's actually kind of an interesting company.
33:02
They have more or less a monopoly position in the body radio market.
33:06
So, they have pre-existing commercial relationships with just about every police and fire department in the free world.
33:12
And they're going to start distributing our products and helping us sell into those logos.
33:15
Uh, but we're also going to be integrating with their bodywn radio, so officers can basically request drone backup very easily.
33:21
Uh, and they have a strong market position in a number of public safety software categories.
33:27
So, we'll be integrating with all of that, too. That's super cool.
33:30
Uh, can you take me through some of the history of the company?
33:32
What was version one of the drone that you built?
33:36
What was the first drone you built?
33:36
Was it just kind of hacked together?
33:38
You said you said something that stood out, which is this was your original vision for the company, but you started it back in 2017 and then there's been so many, you know, different areas in which drones have emerged and so much potential across a bunch of different categories.
33:51
I imagine you had all this pressure to go in different directions over time.
33:55
Um, but yeah, would love to hear of of how your thinking has evolved since the beginning or was this like this was the idea from the beginning and you're just like happy to finally, you know, get to to really focus and and deliver on it?
34:07
I mean, I've I've loved aerospace technology since I was a little kid, right?
34:11
If if I had the choice when I was uh 16, I would have been designing full-scale fighter jets, but uh or 12, whatever.
34:18
Um, but when I was that age, you know, I maybe I didn't quite have the resources to pull off like a full-scale manned aircraft program, but I definitely did have the resources to build reasonably sophisticated pros.
34:29
So, I've been doing that ever since I was pretty small.
34:30
But, um, really what got me thinking about public safety technology was the the October one shoot.
34:37
So, I I I grew up in Las Vegas.
34:39
I knew people that were along the strip when that was happening.
34:41
And that's what got me thinking like maybe maybe there's a home for some of the technology that I love in the hands of first responders to help them save lives during critical incidents.
34:52
So I went and I reached out to Vegas Metro SWAT and uh surprisingly they agreed to have lunch with like 18-year-old me at the time. That's amazing.
35:02
And of that interaction, you know, we we talked a lot about what happened during October 1 and I learned things that I didn't realize.
35:07
But then the conversation broadened to the the rest of their jobs, you know, the high-risisk warrant searches and barricades and hostage rescue missions that they have to face every day.
35:16
And you know, I I walked I walked away from that interaction thinking if they just had a way to get eyes and ears in dangerous places that that would be a life-saving capability for them regularly in the context of active shooter response, but also all of the other missions that um that I mentioned.
35:34
And while I also conceptualized the idea of like a city-wide 91 response drone network in that meeting, I was familiar with how technically complex it would be to pull something like that off from my time at DJI because they were my prior employer before I started Brink.
35:48
Um just the levels of reliability and airspace deconliction and optics and like many other things that you have to pull off in order to really make that work.
35:57
It it felt out of scope for me at the time.
35:58
So I began with the indoor system.
36:01
uh which is really like a purpose-built drone for SWAT teams to get eyes and ears in dangerous places.
36:07
We invented the world's first drone glass breaker.
36:09
So the drone can actually fly up to a window, shatter it out, make entry.
36:13
Then it has a lighter on board, a LAR on board.
36:17
So as it's clearing rooms, it's drawing a floor plan of that structure and then streaming it back live to first responders.
36:22
Has thermal imaging capabilities, 4K cameras, and also a 2A audio system.
36:26
So when the drone finds someone, uh, a crisis negotiator can actually use it like a flying cell phone to try to deescalate the situation.
36:31
And today over 600 SWAT teams are actively using it, which is about 10 to 15% of the SWAT teams in the United States.
36:39
And that that success is really what enabled us to take on this like larger vision of automating a lot of 91 call response. That's amazing.
36:48
How do how do the teams test with the product?
36:50
Do they have traditional sort of uh I imagine they can go to ranges and do uh scenario planning in shootous, right?
36:58
Um are they going and using your tech at the same shootous and and practicing or do you build sort of digital systems that allow them to practice as well?
37:07
What does that look like? Both.
37:09
Yeah, we we have simulators.
37:11
So if folks want to fly drones virtually, that's totally possible.
37:15
But many of them do choose to train with the actual hardware.
37:17
And I I would say like when I was developing the first version of a lemur, I actually rode along with Bigos Metro SWAT for like six months.
37:25
So I went on 20 30 SWAT callouts and I I watch them deploy the early versions of our drone.
37:31
And more more than in any other way, like that's how the technology was actually developed.
37:36
Like me paying close attention to what worked and what didn't work.
37:40
And if something didn't work, I would go back to my mom's house at the time and like re-engineer the product to the point where I thought I would do better on the next mission.
37:46
And when I would get a 3 a. m.
37:48
notification there's a barricade at this address in Vegas, I'd, you know, bring that version of the drone.
37:53
Can you talk about just how hard it is to deploy hardware in the field in these environments?
37:58
We've talked about we talked about a company called uh Sonos that I'm sure you've interacted with at different points.
38:04
We bring we bring this up sometimes because it's like, you know, they're in these like highly controlled environments, which is just your home, and they connect to your local internet, and you just like want them to be able to like you want to be able to hit play and just like have it play music, yet 20% of the time it doesn't play.
38:20
And I I bring that up as an example because it's like it's not like they're not talented. Clearly hardware.
38:26
And it's like that is the perfect example of just how hardware is even in a hyper controlled environment where no lives are on the line.
38:32
And then you go into a situation, you know, that that you're dealing with with Brink all the time where like you need this stuff needs to work because first responders are relying on it.
38:43
You know, the n 911 operators are relying on it.
38:45
You know, so much is kind of riding on it.
38:47
So, I'm curious how you think about sort of battle testing products um internally and and at what point you feel like they're ready to be deployed in the field.
38:57
I mean, the reality is it's just incredibly difficult. Yeah.
38:59
Um, I'll tell you, I mean, in the the very early days of Brink when I was riding along with the SWAT team, uh, I I might have just faced like countless issues.
39:08
Um, a large portion of this happened during Las Vegas this summer.
39:13
So, like overheating was a theme in the first couple of months.
39:17
Uh, the RF environments where you're trying to operate drones can in some cases be incredibly congested, especially in ISM bands.
39:24
Think about like an apartment complex, right?
39:26
like every apartment has its own Wi-Fi transmission system and you're trying to share, you know, spectrum with all of that, which is terrible.
39:35
In some cases, public safety radios will blow out your communications.
39:39
You have to be aware of that and sort of like integrate with all of the other radios that a SWAT team might already be utilizing.
39:45
And then everyone wants pilot assistance on these drones and obstacle avoidance.
39:50
But many of the techniques that you would normally want to employ in order to give a drone indoor localization uh are sensitive to environmental factors like visual inertial odometry utilizing an HD image sensor, right?
40:03
Like maybe that works super well when you're not blowing up shitloads of dust all the time um in an attic, right?
40:10
Or maybe it works well in like a well-lit room, but you you start kicking up insulation in zero light conditions and like good luck making that function.
40:21
So what what you ultimately have to invest in is large numbers of redundant systems, right?
40:28
Localizing based on LAR data and IMU data and BIO data and GPS data, etc. Barometer data, etc.
40:35
Um, and then if you layer enough systems and you're clever enough in your system design and software design and everything else, you can get to something that works.
40:43
But I mean, this is this is what makes all of this hard, right?
40:47
Like putting together a quick demo of a product that competes with us, you know, that's pretty easy.
40:55
Something that actually does better than what we make in the field is extraordinarily difficult. I mean, no.
41:03
But it and it's it's funny cuz I I imagine that that there's companies that that have or will try to compete with you that fly a DJI drone and they're like, "Oh, I could make an American version of this that you could fly in a house."
41:15
And then they make it look so easy. Totally.
41:17
DJ I mean DJI is an extraordinary company.
41:19
I it was really amazing to spend some time um within within their org.
41:25
Can you break down some they make it look easy but can you break down some of the the the design trade-offs from uh what people might have experienced with the DJI quadcopter?
41:35
Uh you know I think about like 20 minute battery life being kind of the upper bound but I've heard about drones you know being gas powered being single rotor.
41:45
There's so many different trade-offs.
41:47
Octacopters there's all sorts of different what zip lines doing.
41:50
We talked to the Zipline folks yesterday.
41:51
It's completely different system.
41:53
So, what trade-offs have you made to move your product away from what people might be familiar with with like a DJI Mavic 3 or something like that? Totally.
42:02
Well, the first thing I would say is DJI is actively getting banned throughout the United States. Yeah.
42:06
So, on on the order of 10 states have already passed laws preventing their public safety agencies from utilizing Chinese drones.
42:15
Y DJI drones are Chinese.
42:17
Autel drones are Chinese. Yep.
42:19
DJI has something like 90% of the global market. Autal is roughly 5%. Wow.
42:21
So like 95% of the market um is banned is controlled by by companies that can't sell into public safety agencies in 10 states which definitely is uh generating a significant need for more drone makers in the free world, right?
42:36
Uh there's also potential potentially some federal legislation coming that would have a similar effect on all 50 states. Sure. Since it's um Go for it. Sorry. Yeah.
42:48
But no, I mean, if we're looking at the actual products, yeah, Lemur 2 competes most directly with DJI Abata, but we invented a whole bunch of features that make Lemur 2 very fit for purpose for a SWAT mission.
43:01
Uh things like a glass breaking attachment, so the drone can actually make its own hole into a structure and make entry because it is fairly dangerous for SWAT operators to go up, rake, and break a window when there's a person with like a rifle inside. No one wants to do that.
43:15
So our customers a lot audio system.
43:18
So when our drone finds someone, you know, it can [Music] actually go besides getting someone out of a structure during a swap call out.
43:29
Like you want to establish negotiation and a line of communication.
43:32
If you do that, the the risk of something going terribly wrong goes down tremendously.
43:38
So it's it's a pretty common tactic.
43:38
Uh our drones have thermal imagers.
43:40
Our indoor drone has a thermal imager.
43:42
DJI does not offer an indoor system with a thermometer that can see heat, which is unbelievably beneficial on basically every mission.
43:49
I could go on and on and on.
43:50
We've invented a million features along these lines.
43:52
What about how do you uh how do you think about uh supply chains?
43:56
Obviously, I'm sure it's top of mind this week.
43:58
How are you thinking about it?
44:00
How are you adapting Brink?
44:02
I'm sure you've been um you know trying to become independent from China.
44:05
Takes time, but it's super hard.
44:08
I I've been personally sanctioned by China. I cannot enter China.
44:13
Brink has now been sanctioned by China twice. Okay.
44:14
What's So we're not allowed to buy any parts in China. Um Wow. Yes.
44:19
How how are you dealing with that?
44:22
I feel like we just heard a story about Skyo not being batteries.
44:26
Isn't it hilariously ironic that we can't pass federal legislation to ban DJI, which owns 90% of our market, yet they're banning you and you don't even sell there? Our team. Yeah. It's insane, right?
44:38
I mean, same old story though. Same old story, right?
44:41
like all of their social media platforms can come into our market and compete, but we can't go into theirs.
44:45
The the exact same dynamic is now unfolding in the drone industry. It's ridiculous.
44:49
Um, so yeah, supply chain, like how are you thinking about it?
44:53
Because it feels like just even if you're fully aligned with made in America, it's hard to get a reliable source of batteries in America.
45:03
And we just saw that story with Skyo uh having their battery manufacturer get pulled kind of out from under them.
45:09
Well, our drones are NDA compliant, meaning that we don't we don't utilize any electronics from China whatsoever.
45:15
No processors, no radios, no imaging sensors, like none of that stuff.
45:18
Y um we we had to become NDA compliant a couple of years ago in order to sell to the customers that that we sure So that was like a great step one. Um Got it.
45:30
Listen, I mean, you just you have to set this as like an initial design requirement like engineering team, we can't use parts from China. Yeah. can't do it. Yep.
45:39
And if if that's a part of the original brief, then people find solutions. Sure. Yeah.
45:43
Um they work with new suppliers, they in-house stuff, like whatever is necessary, they do it and you you end up with a product.
45:50
I think what what's excruciating is building something without that initial requirement set and then having to like transition it over.
45:58
That seems really like really bad.
46:00
But we just we've not been in a position where we've had to do that because of NDA compliance requirements and other things. We saw this one coming. So it is this very much.
46:11
Do you think there's the an adequate in investment in in the domestic drone design and manufacturing today or do we need to No, I think it's I think it's off by like a factor of 100.
46:22
It's actively it's actively terrifying actually. Wow.
46:24
We have we have no drone industrial capacity.
46:26
I think the the DoD continues to underinvest in small drones.
46:30
They're only now beginning to realize that these things are important weapons of war because of the the conflict in Ukraine, but they're not writing checks.
46:38
I mean, the the largest military small drone purchase that I'm aware of is SRR.
46:43
Um, and it's just not very big.
46:46
It's like, I think singledigit thousands of systems.
46:50
Uh, those those are the orders that have been placed so far.
46:52
So, when we're buying a couple thousand drones at a time and DJI is producing literally millions a year, uh it's not a it's not a good situation for America for the How how do you how do you think about focus in that context?
47:04
Because in my view, if there's not if you if we need more investment, one of the ways to do that would be you launch a DoD focused side of the business or you start to work, you know, with with foreign allies and stuff like that.
47:19
But clearly you've you you've made a decision in the in the fullness of time to sort of focus on the local market.
47:25
But I'm sure you have pressure all the time.
47:26
I'm sure you have investors that like send you an article about Ukraine.
47:29
And they're like, "Hey Blake, did you see what's happening in Ukraine?"
47:32
And you have to be like, "Yes, I saw, but you know, we we have our own sort of battles at home."
47:36
Listen, if military customers aren't buying drones, that's not a decision I can make. Yeah. Fascinating.
47:44
What about in the in the I should also say though, just to be clear, like I I absolutely adore the public safety market.
47:51
Like I I started this company to serve first responders.
47:56
I think the life-saving mission that they take on is extraordinary and it's something that I am I'm deeply passionate about and excited to support.
48:05
So like that that's what I care about here.
48:07
But I mean I'm not blind to what's going on in in China or Ukraine.
48:10
And it's clear that systems very similar to the ones that we build will shape future conflict.
48:17
Um, is it is it uh I'm I'm interested and and again maybe getting a little bit out of scope here, but I'm interested.
48:25
Uh there's this classic idea of like you know US uh marine uh training with some type of like ARbased rifle and they spend all this time training on this sort of rifle.
48:35
uh are are they spending enough time training how to fly FPV drones, how to work with drone networks, or do you think the training is not even sort of caught up to the realities of the battlefield today?
48:48
Well, you know, FPV drones are really hard to fly. I don't know.
48:51
Have you either of you guys tried to fly like an FPV system before?
48:54
Yeah, it's really I've just done basic DJI type.
48:56
They're not they're not stabilized.
48:59
Like they don't have GPS.
49:01
So, if you take your hands off the sticks, FPV drones will fly into a wall at like 40 miles an hour.
49:08
It takes incredible skill to like even keep them in a hover, like let alone hits a moving target somewhere.
49:15
Um, they've been they've been highly successful in Ukraine, but I don't I don't feel like FPV drones as they're currently designed or manufactured are really like the end state of this technology.
49:27
I think they'll be more automated.
49:28
They'll have stabilization systems.
49:31
you'll be able to select a target and the drone will do its own navigation to intercept that target.
49:34
Uh they won't rely necessarily on RF communication systems since the jamming environment is getting so bad in you know in in many places.
49:43
So that's all to say like you can say okay we should be training our military on how to fly FPVs but like that's going to be a huge amount of work and all of that work might not be very relevant in five years when some of the technologies that described or capabilities I described mature to the point that they're they're commonplace. So, I don't know.
50:04
I think really the right choice would be invest a lot more in purchasing drones. Actually, buy Oh, Zack.
50:16
Zack, we were flipping people over.
50:16
We have some technical difficulties in the studio today, but no worries.
50:22
We'll be with you in just a minute, Zach.
50:24
We got to say goodbye to Blake.
50:29
No, I I guess just to finish my my last statement. Sorry.
50:31
I think the move here is for the US military to buy drones at significant scale, start incorporating them into into our armed forces, you know, get people familiar with them, but um have drone manufacturers like us or or anyone else like build something that's actually fit for purpose.
50:47
So, you know, all those efforts result in a in a good outcome for our all parties involved. That makes sense.
50:53
Well, this has been fascinating.
50:54
We'd love to have you back again soon and uh thank you for the work that you're doing and congrats to you and the team on the new milestone. Yeah, congratulations. Massive round. Cheers, buddy. Cheers. Talk to you soon. Bye.
51:05
And it seems like Zach's already here, so let's just bring him in. He's out. He's out.
51:09
Okay, we got to bring him back in.
51:14
We're We are building the FL the plane as we're flying it.
51:17
And we're also being attacked by state actors. So, state actors.
51:20
If you see if you see an error, take it up with the state actors because they're the ones that are uh hacking us at every at every turn. At every turn.
51:30
Uh, but we're very excited to have Zach Weinberg on the show.
51:31
You probably know him from his uh uh repeated appearance on the Logan Bartlett Show.
51:36
Formerly Cartoon Avatars, if you're a real Logan Bartlett head, uh, Zach was almost the co-host. He denied it.
51:44
He said, "Ah, I'm not I'm not really the co-host of that show."
51:48
But we know that so many great episodes came out of that era.
51:51
He was debating the crypto folks again and again and again weeks on end fighting the fight during the height of Zerp and now he's moved on to fighting Keith Roy about tariffs and uh we we will get into all that and then I'm sure we'll talk about bio and what he's up to uh at Cury.
52:10
So let's bring Zach in if he's here. Not here yet.
52:14
Okay, he's coming back in.
52:15
We will send him a message. I love his uh ex banner.
52:18
It's a George Carlin quote.
52:20
Never underestimate the power of stupid people in large groups.
52:25
He loves it, which uh sometimes is what it feels like on Axe.
52:30
Yeah, he's been on a tear.
52:30
This has been a a good week for him.
52:33
He's had plenty to comment on and dunk on and uh uh had a lot of fun chatting.
52:40
I really want to get him to break down his debate with Anthony Pompiano as well as what he's been talking to um Keith Boy and Logan Bartlett about.
52:52
Um but let's bring him back in the studio when we get a chance.
52:56
And in the meantime, let's tell you about numeral sales tax on autopilot.
53:02
You can spend less than five minutes per month on sales tax compliance. Go to numeralhq. com. Just do it.
53:08
Thousands of companies work with numeral.
53:11
You should be one of them. And what was the stat?
53:14
Over 75 states now collect tax on I think it was a couple hundred. Couple hundred.
53:19
Actually, no, I have a note here. 25 states. 25,000 states.
53:20
Soon if if uh if we have our uh Imperial Way, it could be hundreds of states requiring The moon's going to be a state and they're going to have sales tax on the moon for sure. Greenland.
53:33
Oh, you think you can ship to Greenland without paying sales tax? Yeah, right. Yeah, right.
53:40
We're not letting those penguins free ride on us.
53:42
They're going to be paying sales tax and you're going to be paying your sales tax on numeral with numeral HQ. Go to numeralhq. com, check it out.
53:49
Uh in the meantime, Palmer Lucky fired back at folks hating on Colossal, talking trash about uh how oh, Colossal didn't create direwolves.
54:00
Technically, they just spliced 10,000 year old year old direwolf DNA with greywolves.
54:03
direwolf DNA with greywolves. uh they should spend their time arguing that Jurassic Park did not in fact depict any dinosaurs and uh Palmer shares uh this thing sucks actually and it's literally the coolest thing ever and I agree uh
54:18
very very excited that the direwolves are back that we got hairy big gray wolves very funny uh you know who knows where Colossal goes maybe it's just uh more entertaining zoos but I'm I'm here for I'm rooting for them great great positioning the de-extinction company. Yep. And they're putting up some big Yep.
54:36
And they're putting up some big numbers at least in the funding department. For sure. There he is.
54:38
Zack, welcome to the show. Can you hear me? Yeah, we can hear you.
54:44
You kicked me out and then Zoom said I wasn't allowed back in. I'm sorry about that.
54:47
Uh well, thank you for joining us.
54:49
We're very excited to have you.
54:50
Uh can you give us a little breakdown of the last two days you've been on a debate tour?
54:56
Uh which debates do you think you've won?
54:59
where where where's your weakest uh talking point that I can needle you off.
55:03
And we were we were joking earlier.
55:05
Hopefully this is the most enjoyable, you know, uh podcast experience that you have this week because I I know some of them got a little contentious.
55:13
So, it's great to have you. Yeah. Yeah, it's been fun.
55:14
Uh I pray to God I did not lose a debate to a Bitcoin bro.
55:22
So that at that point I'm just committing suicide and hanging it up.
55:28
Uh, you did go in the lion's den with that one. Yeah.
55:30
No, actually I would say the most interesting conversation I did we just posted which was yesterday with Derek Thompson from the Atlantic who co-wrote the abundance book with Ezra Klein which I think is a great book and we mostly agree on 70% of the things and you know some of the stuff we didn't agree with at at the end and we got to both which was really nice. So that has been fun.
55:51
Um, you know, it's funny like I the reason I started to do it be is because these topics, tariffs, pie grilling, like these are not interesting topics to the vast majority of Americans daytoday.
56:10
Like they don't care about this stuff until right now. Yep.
56:12
And so I was like, all right, [ __ ] it.
56:16
Let's go have a conversation about things that like I'm interested in and I think are important for America.
56:24
But normally, you know, the audience was like, you know, my family. Yeah.
56:26
So, uh, that's part of why I was doing it and and, uh, still am.
56:31
I have a few more next week, actually, just to try and make try to make sense of what's going on in this really complicated economic concepts, you know, for like normal people. That's been my goal. Uh, so it's been fun. It's been fun.
56:43
Are you abundance pilled at this point?
56:45
abundance pilled at this point? Because I was I was listening to something about Ezra Klene talking about how he was very like inspired by West Wang and the abundance movement feels very aspirational but there's always this question of like when the rubber meets
57:02
the road can the out can the impact of that actually not just be to me yeah to me at a base level it's an amazing positioning like coming at it from like I saw I saw even yesterday there was somebody in San Francisco that was saying we should tax Whimo to fund public transit. And then somebody was
57:18
And then somebody was quoting it and being like, you know, basically like the idea is like this is kind of ridiculous.
57:24
Like why don't we just make Whimo so cheap that that everybody can use it?
57:27
There's just an abundance of, you know, autonomous cars that everyone has access to.
57:30
By the way, by the way, you do taxo already.
57:37
You're like, "Welcome to how this works already, guys."
57:38
You know, you're you're real shitty at building public transport. Like that's the problem. It's not the Whimo tax.
57:45
By the way, Whimo loses like a billion dollars a year.
57:49
Like they're already money. Yeah.
57:52
Anyway, uh yeah, I mean what is your read on abundance?
57:54
Not just I mean obviously give me like the do you like the framing but then also is it a meaningful shift from just rhetoric it will win the election or it will actually have meaningful change if it is implemented?
58:06
I love the concept because it gets the Democrats in particular, but America talking about growth and talking about how growing the pie and making the pie bigger is better for everybody.
58:20
And then as a Dem or as like a left-leaning person, when you want to talk about how the pie is allocated, which is about taxes and redistribution and social programs and all of that, those are cool conversations to have when the pie is really big.
58:37
When the pie is really small and you think of it in this like fixed mentality, then you get into these awful debates of like you assume everybody that there's there's only a dollar to go around, but in reality there's way more dollars if you grow.
58:49
And so I love that framing.
58:51
It brings us back to Clinton, not Hillary, but like Bill back in the day, right?
58:57
You know, this is the kind of stuff that they were talking about.
59:00
This is why I think the Dems, you know, were a great political party, you know, 20 years ago.
59:05
Um, so that part I agree with. I think it's great.
59:09
The other thing I think they they touch on that I love is that abundance actually matters a lot more in a few specific categories.
59:17
Like it's not it's abundance is not created equal.
59:19
and in particular housing that housing is kind of like the only thing that really matters in the long run for most people because it is such a large percentage of everybody's income. Mhm.
59:32
Either as a home owner because of the mortgage or or obviously as a renter.
59:37
And like sure you can complain about grocery prices, but the reason you care so much about the movement in grocery prices is because housing is eating up 50% of your income. Mhm.
59:45
And so like go get the big thing and then the little things will will matter a lot less.
59:51
Uh so I really like that positioning as well.
59:54
I think they nailed the like problem in America is is is really housing costs and other stuff matter but not not as much.
59:59
Healthcare is probably the second where we disagree and we had this little fun little disagreement on it is what is the role of government in creating that abundance. Mhm.
1:00:12
Uh and where do you need government to do stuff such as building roads and providing you know health insurance through Medicare and and Medicaid through like you know construction of of uh of energy infrastructure and things like that military and where do you need government to get the [ __ ] out of the way?
1:00:37
uh because government is the thing holding us up and you know rules and rags that prevent the free market and from capitalism from from building the homes, right?
1:00:47
Uh and there's just a lot of nuance I think of like where government should and shouldn't be evolv uh and so their book is a little bit more like make government good at its job.
1:01:01
And my view on that is like I don't really think that's ever going to happen.
1:01:05
And so for a variety of reasons and so there are some places where we actually need to get the government out of the process and that and that will help and and it just depends on what you're talking about.
1:01:14
Are you talking about like you know bridges and tunnels and highways?
1:01:18
Uh are you talking about homes?
1:01:20
Are you talking about semiconductor manufacturing?
1:01:22
Uh, and we disagree on some of the specifics there, but the goal is is is noble and good and way better than what we have been talking about for the last 10 years, which is like I don't even know what we've been talking about. It's been I agree. Yeah. No, it's a good point.
1:01:37
Uh, I I want to get to tariffs.
1:01:40
Um, how did you I mean like take me on the roller coaster of emotion that you went through over the past week with regard to Liberation Day and the fallout from it. Yeah.
1:01:49
Then we can get to the art of the squeal.
1:01:51
Yeah, the art of the squeal.
1:01:52
talk about which has been the talk of the timeline today.
1:01:54
Uh I have no idea what that is but uh interested in learning more.
1:01:58
Uh uh you know like because I work daytoday in in in biotech and and and in healthcare but specifically in biotech um and in early stage biotech which is before a drug is approved right this is all drug discovery.
1:02:14
um the tariff stuff doesn't really impact us on a day-to-day basis.
1:02:20
And so from like a professional side of things, it's interesting to watch and be interested in it because, you know, tax revenue helps fund science.
1:02:28
So I'm very interested in growing the economy because it'd be nice for us to have more money to fund more science.
1:02:34
That's that's really my big interest in this, right?
1:02:36
Like if America were 10 times richer, then the NIH budget would be 10 times bigger.
1:02:41
And do you know how much cool [ __ ] we would discover as like humanity if the NIH budget was 500 billion instead of 50 billion? Like that's pretty cool.
1:02:48
I think it's like 30 billion.
1:02:50
Uh and so that's why I'm really interested in this stuff because I think, you know, as members of society today and our kids, we benefit from a booming US economy in ways that are not always clear.
1:03:05
And one of them is in science and in drug discovery. that part.
1:03:07
That's part of why I'm interested in this stuff because I think it's bad for America if we don't grow.
1:03:13
But on a day-to-day basis, it hasn't impacted us.
1:03:15
Now, there are other things going on in the administration related to healthcare as I'm sure you've seen with, you know, RFK and the FDA that we we pay a lot more attention to and they're very nuanced biotech specific problems which, you know, needs a lot of context to share. Yeah.
1:03:33
um with regard to the NIH, um why hasn't why is that $30 billion budget so important?
1:03:41
Why, you know, we we don't we like DARPA created the internet, but the free market and venture capital and Silicon Valley is like they kind of took it from there, right?
1:03:50
Uh why hasn't that happened in in biotech?
1:03:52
Why do we need the government doing anything?
1:03:54
Why can't they just kind of get out of the way?
1:03:57
And you know, kid in the lab, you know, with his chat GPT looking it up, formulates something and they test it and then the government may be still there to approve it, but you know, it moves a lot faster.
1:04:07
I knew this question was coming because I get asked it all the time and I was I was trying to come up with like a simple way to understand where you need and where you don't need government in biotech.
1:04:17
So, I'm going to try my best.
1:04:19
Um, I want to make the distinction between biology which is the understanding of how the body works versus drugs.
1:04:34
You could think of it as chemistry, but it's more than chemistry now, which is creating something, a pill, an injection, mRNA, sir, whatever.
1:04:46
There's a lot of different things you can make to change that biology, right?
1:04:52
One is like I I want to this is a thing that's going wrong in the body.
1:04:54
I want I want it to do more. I want it to do less. That is biology.
1:04:58
And then there's the like I got to now create something that doesn't naturally happen in in your body or isn't happening to to make an impact on disease.
1:05:08
And those are two different things.
1:05:10
Those are two very very different things.
1:05:13
Biology you cannot patent.
1:05:16
There is no patent for understanding, you know, a a process that happens in your cells or happens in, you know, your immune system, right?
1:05:26
Like you got to remember PE I think people think we know more about how the human body works than we do. Mhm.
1:05:30
We barely understand how this thing works.
1:05:36
I mean, we have a little bit of like we understand, you know, how to like sequence DNA and how DNA creates RNA and how RNA sometimes creates proteins.
1:05:42
Like we have some basic level understanding of this stuff, but it is an incredibly complex system that if you don't understand how it works, you can't even start a drug program in the first place because what are you pointing it to?
1:05:56
What are you trying to drug?
1:05:56
And that I think is really really important because there is mostly no business model in finding new biology like learning how a certain type of cell works or how cell communication works like you can't make money doing that and it's really I mean like yes some rare cases sure but you really can't the solution is to do like a DAO or something like that.
1:06:26
I mean owned owned admitted.
1:06:28
Oh god, crypto is the solution. Sorry. Sorry.
1:06:32
I don't want to trigger you.
1:06:33
I know you were triggered.
1:06:36
And so like you know when people talk about academic discoveries and discoveries in the lab and government funded discoveries and none of like those are all true things, but mostly what academics discover mostly in in this world in my world is is biology, right?
1:06:53
Oh, this is how this thing works.
1:06:55
This is how this process works, right?
1:06:56
Like and then private group groups go and go ah okay now that I understand you know this thing is causing a type of cancer or this thing is causing cell signaling in a weird way or this thing is causing Alzheimer's or dementia or some immune you know condition.
1:07:12
Now I'm going to try and make a drug to go and stop that thing from happening or modulate it down.
1:07:19
And those drugs you can patent, right?
1:07:22
And that's what creates an incentive for private business to go and take a massive amount of risk because most drugs fail and cost hundreds of millions of dollars to figure out if they fail.
1:07:32
But because you can patent those things and then because that patent life is long enough and the prices on the other side of this are high enough that you can make money doing it.
1:07:41
You could, you know, it's not easy to make money. Let me be clear.
1:07:43
So you need government to discover biology.
1:07:46
without it, you won't it won't happen.
1:07:49
And and here's like a simple there's a few examples of this that I'm going to try to make it tangible, but like we do not know what causes Alzheimer's. Mhm. We have no idea.
1:07:58
I mean, we have some we have some things that show up in the brains of Alzheimer's patients that seem wrong, right?
1:08:07
And this is the whole like cow and you know some of the the best way to describe it.
1:08:12
There are things in the brain of Alzheimer's and dementia patients that shouldn't be there.
1:08:17
And so okay, we're going to try and like remove those things from the brain, but we don't actually know what's causing those things to to to be there in the first place.
1:08:26
And is that actually a is that causing Alzheimer's?
1:08:27
Is it driving the disease?
1:08:30
Is it is it or is it actually a passenger?
1:08:32
it actually a passenger? there's something else driving it over here and that's causing this which what of these things do we try and drug right like and you know this is like cow and beta amalloid and all these things that we think are kind of involved but we don't
1:08:46
actually know what causes Alzheimer's we're not even close to understanding this and so if you want good drugs for dementia and Alzheimer's in the future we need to know what the hell is happening now and without government funding that kind of biology research. We will never figure
1:09:03
We will never figure this out.
1:09:06
And because there is no business really in in doing that kind of lab work, it's it's it's open-ended science.
1:09:13
You know, this is where you need philanthropy and and and money that isn't chasing profit.
1:09:18
I'm the first person will tell you capitalism is the greatest thing that ever happened to humanity.
1:09:23
But there are some places where it doesn't work and that's where there isn't, you know, there isn't profit to be made.
1:09:30
and and and biology is is really really really key.
1:09:32
Um can you um I wanted to get your thoughts on tariffs specifically in the context of the pharmaceutical industry.
1:09:42
Trump had come out this week and basically said that pharma is next.
1:09:46
But if you actually look at the US China there isn't a huge pharmaceutical trade imbalance between the US and China.
1:09:55
It seems like we buy a lot from them, they buy a lot from us.
1:10:00
Uh is that should that even be a part of the conversation or is it just a total distraction?
1:10:04
It's really really stupid.
1:10:06
Uh and and it's stupid for it's it's even dumber than that uh which is that the pharmaceutical product that you're manufacturing at the end of this is the approved drug.
1:10:17
By the time you're at that point, all the hard stuff has kind of really been done, right?
1:10:25
which is figuring out what drug to make in the first place, how to design, how to develop it, all the risk, all the failures are in what happens before this, before the approval.
1:10:35
And that's where all the money is made, right?
1:10:37
All the money, all the stuff that is like strategic for the United States to be good at is in drug discovery and drug development.
1:10:46
It is not drug manufacturing that matters, right?
1:10:48
Like that is not the hard part.
1:10:51
It's not easy, but like that's not the thing that we need to be doing in America.
1:10:55
These are also like giant facilities.
1:10:58
There's not a ton of people.
1:11:00
It's really more of like quality control processes.
1:11:02
It's actually better for us if we can build them elsewhere because it allows drugs to be slightly cheaper for Americans, right?
1:11:10
Like I don't view drug manufacturing as strategic to the United States.
1:11:16
Like someone's got to do it, but that's not the part that matters.
1:11:17
The part that matters is drug discovery and drug development, which is really what our biotech and pharmaceutical companies, that's mostly what they're good at.
1:11:27
Just because it's made in, you know, Canada or Europe, I I I don't think really matters as long as the quality control, you know, is there.
1:11:35
So tariffing the last mile manufacturing is irrelevant.
1:11:43
Like it just doesn't make any sense.
1:11:44
Why do we need these things here?
1:11:46
It's just going to make things more expensive.
1:11:46
Um so it gets the problem wrong. Yeah, that makes sense.
1:11:51
Um can you talk about uh AI in the context of the early stage investing that you're doing drug development work that you know the portfolio is doing?
1:12:00
I did a command F on your site by the way.
1:12:04
you don't mention AI at all yet every time Sam Alman needs to raise another 10 20 billion that the sort of like you know the the idea that LLMs are going to cure all disease seems to come up.
1:12:14
So, I'm curious to get your take um on the opportunity generally because like our our takeaway from this week is like with with all the potential of AI, it it's sort of upsetting in many ways that we've had to kind of like you know uh you know take this like detour down you know trade war lane and uh you know I mean at the same time like when when AlphaFold dropped it was like the protein folding problem is solved.
1:12:43
biotech markets didn't really move and I'm always wondered why there's such a disconnect there between like the hype around AI and bio versus what the market is saying but maybe it's taking stage taking place at the early stage but
1:12:56
would love just the the the current rant on AI and biotech okay one of the hardest things to explain uh in a short period of time the the the the TLDDR is like nice cool tool in the toolbox useful we'll make a few steps of process potentially more efficient. Not a panacea by any means.
1:13:14
Not a panacea by any means. Um why?
1:13:18
Let's let's see if I can try to explain this.
1:13:22
Um making a drug is like a 40-step process that requires you to actually make early versions of like the physical molecule itself, right?
1:13:36
Because you don't just because the computer says do X Y and Z doesn't mean it's right. Right.
1:13:44
Like it's not it's not software predictions where it makes you a picture and then you go ah that picture.
1:13:48
You have to go and make the thing that the computer is suggesting.
1:13:52
If we're talking about in this case using AI for the drug making part of it, not the biology part.
1:13:59
We can talk about biology in a second or differently.
1:14:01
So you got to go like think like make test iterate cycle and it's atoms. It's not bits.
1:14:06
It's these are physical atoms.
1:14:08
So you got to go like, you know, and then you take that early version of the drug and you stick it in like a petri dish and you see what happens.
1:14:17
And then you have to then you have to tweak it and you got to go make more of them and you got to run this little loop and then if that works to where you want now you got to go and stick it in a mouse.
1:14:25
Which mouse does the mouse have the right model?
1:14:28
Does the mouse predict a human? Which version is it?
1:14:31
it? humanize like there's so many thing and then okay you get through the mouse dog or monkey right cuz m because because mice aren't people mice aren't people right and neither are dogs or monkeys but they're closer to people right and so now you got to go do all that stuff and so like and then by the
1:14:46
way even after all of this even after all this we've gotten through the the the petri dish and the mouse and the dog and the monkey and then you go to the people you still don't know if the drug works because you have to go like humans are weird right biology is weird we don't know how it works you know you stick it in. If it does everything right
1:15:01
If it does everything right in the monkey, that doesn't mean it's going to work in the human.
1:15:03
Uh, and so unfortunately, like there's just the data you would need to make all of these predictions.
1:15:12
And then it's not just the predictions, you need the feedback loop, right?
1:15:16
Like why is scale AI a 20 billion business?
1:15:19
Because you need a bunch of people clicking like not the right picture, not the right picture, not the you need that loop for training.
1:15:22
And you don't have that loop in biotech. You do not have that.
1:15:27
not have that. You have to the d the size of the data we're talking about here is like 1 one billionth of what you can do in digital land because in the digital world your training data set is the history of every written word and picture ever in the history of humanity
1:15:44
like think of the size of the training data in biology you don't have that one other little nuance is your training even where you do have training data uh and there's different types of training data you're trying to predict protein structure is one Uh, a lot of that training data comes in a petra dish, right? Like we're not act when we when
1:16:03
Like we're not act when we when we think about like how a cell works and what's going on inside of it, we're not actually measuring and watching that cell in a real biological system, meaning like it's touching other cells and it's doing stuff.
1:16:16
You're doing it in a petri dash, which is a piece of plastic.
1:16:20
And like the way that cell works on a piece of plastic is not the same way that it tends to work in.
1:16:28
Could we tell you exactly what that difference is? No.
1:16:32
And so you have some really big challenges in even just the quality of the training data if you want to use this to make high quality predictions.
1:16:45
And so it's gonna come off as I'm like super negative about all this and I'm not. I'm not.
1:16:48
I think it's awesome that we have slightly better tools to make predictions about, you know, how to design a small molecule.
1:16:57
That's really what this is particularly good at.
1:17:01
Um, but this idea that like a computer is designing a drug is so far from reality that that's why you don't see the the like the people who know Yeah. know.
1:17:13
And that's why it's not moving. It It's great. It's cool. I'm glad we have it.
1:17:18
It's it's it's it's not going to change the game.
1:17:20
And and part of this is like not to to finish my rant here.
1:17:24
If you don't understand the biology, what is the computer trying to predict? Right?
1:17:29
Like all the way back to the thing we just, you know, we talked about in the beginning, if we don't even know what causes a particular disease, what is the computer going to make for you? Right?
1:17:41
you? Right? Like, and so so much of the problem of making drugs for the future and there's so many challenges in all of this and it's great that America is good at this but like is actually on the is in the biology side of things where you know you know we need more science we need more scientists we need more smart scientists um so the idea
1:18:05
I think it's a good a good uh it's it's not necessarily negative but it's a good wakeup call to the sort of EAC you know super agi pill types that say just survive the next two and then we're all going to live forever, you know, which is uh I did want to ask uh specifically how you thought about the potential of even just base LLMs within healthcare. There was a study recently around how
1:18:29
There was a study recently around how you know um basically LLM based therapy was actually showing to have tremendous potential and that's cool because the idea that everybody can get access to a you know high relatively high quality therapy effectively for free could could have tremendous benefits but I'm curious if you think AI can be deflationary within health care uh broadly outside of you know drug discovery and development things like that.
1:19:01
Um, probably not at a giant number, but there are some things that I think these LLMs will be particularly good at.
1:19:07
Uh, I don't I'm not going to talk about the boring part of healthcare, which is like insurance, reimbursement, PDF, prior author, like paperwork. Yeah.
1:19:15
Uh, I actually think LM should should be awesome on the paperwork side.
1:19:20
And so things should get better.
1:19:22
You should see things should be faster, more efficient. That'll be great. No more.
1:19:25
You ever make an appointment with a doctor and like some, you know, front desk person is trying to call you 18 times.
1:19:30
You're like, "Hey, have you ever heard of like a text message that I can confirm my appointment?"
1:19:34
Like that stuff should be solved hopefully.
1:19:37
Um, I think the other area that it's really useful is in differential diagnosis, which is basically like the job of a doctor to try and figure out what's wrong with you. Yeah.
1:19:48
And part of that is understanding the science and then part of that is like the literature that you have to you know based on the symptoms that this person is talking about and telling you like what might it be and that's uh probability weighted type analysis that you know the docs do and they try and rule stuff out and a lot of that just comes from experience and education and and that should be replicable um by models over time.
1:20:13
You know, I think that's getting better.
1:20:17
Do you have any uh specifically in one thing that I think is interesting is like way it seeming seemingly like people are much more excited to get their biomarkers done and there's services now that allow you to test a really broad range of biomarkers for uh seemingly less money than going Yeah. Yes.
1:20:38
companies like Function and Superpower and others.
1:20:40
Um, are you excited about just having a lot more data?
1:20:46
And obviously it's like a snapshot in time, but that uh and data by itself is not valuable, but I imagine that's it right there.
1:20:54
You just hit it right there, which is like data by itself, just because you can measure it doesn't make it important.
1:20:59
And just because it's going up or down doesn't mean it matters.
1:21:04
Uh, and sometimes the data can be confusing uh, and actually point you in weird directions that don't make sense because this biomarker that we think is important, we don't actually have great data to know whether it is.
1:21:20
Um, and you know, certain things can be elevated in your blood because of like the coffee you had in the morning.
1:21:25
And it doesn't mean so I think it's great that people are interested in their own health and and and interested in understanding what's going on in their body.
1:21:36
I think the chances of like wide bloodbased biomarker screening like basically what function does actually mattering for the vast majority of people is probably not true.
1:21:50
Um it's kind of like healthy neurotic people staying more healthy and neurotic.
1:21:55
Uh and things that really matter are much more for like people with chronic disease and cancer.
1:22:03
Like that's really where health like tech people have this really weird view of healthcare because tech people tend to be healthy and like that's not healthare.
1:22:13
That's not I mean it's healthare but that's not the health care that we that really matters which is mostly like when you're older and sicker.
1:22:21
uh and chronic disease is just, you know, was a symptom of aging.
1:22:24
And so I'm much more interested in how do you think about healthcare as it relates to disease rather than, you know, these like biomarkers that don't necessarily tell you tons of things.
1:22:34
The the flip of it is look like every once in a while it is going to catch something that matters, right?
1:22:41
It's it's not it's not never.
1:22:43
It's just not frequent and often.
1:22:47
Um there's also a risk in healthcare.
1:22:47
I know it's jump but like I there's always a risk in healthcare of finding something you think is going wrong trying to figure that out and while you are trying to figure it out harming yourself.
1:23:05
Uh and a simple example of this is a biopsy right like you go and get a scan and you got to remember it's a scan it's not a detail.
1:23:16
So like you see something in a scan.
1:23:19
Could be an X-ray, could be MRI, whatever.
1:23:21
And looks like ah we have this like little nodule here and so is it cancerous? Is it not? We don't know.
1:23:30
So you have to go get a biopsy which is like a giant needle, right?
1:23:32
That you got to like stick into the whatever that thing is and pull out some cells and take a sample and then go test it.
1:23:39
And like biopsies are not dangerree and you can hurt yourself, especially if it's in your like GI area and especially if you're older, right?
1:23:50
And the doc can do it incorrectly and you can have symptoms and and complications.
1:23:54
Doing more in healthcare is not always better.
1:23:56
And I think that's really hard for people to understand is like more is not always better.
1:24:04
Um because treat diagn diagnosis and treatment is not risk-free except when it comes to the NAH budget or NAH budget maxing over here.
1:24:13
Doing more health care services is not always better. Thank you for joining.
1:24:19
This is a fantastic conversation. I really appreciate you.
1:24:22
Yeah, let's do this again soon. We do this again.
1:24:23
We could go for a long 40 other questions. Yeah, this is fantastic. Thanks for joining.
1:24:26
Official biotech correspondent. Thank you. There you go. There you go. Works for me. We'll talk to you soon. Bye. Cheers.
1:24:33
Next up, we got Ian Cinnamon from Apex coming in the studio.
1:24:35
Uh Apex is a very cool company if you haven't uh looked at it. Apex space. com.
1:24:40
Uh you can actually track uh the Aries SN1, the orbit of uh nominative determinism.
1:24:49
Ian Cinnamon Cinnamon is a spice dune. Oh, okay.
1:24:52
I was wondering where you're going with that. I like that. I like that.
1:24:56
Um yeah, you you can track its orbit right now.
1:25:02
Uh the last update 21 hours ago. Uh manufacturers Apex.
1:25:05
Uh the mass 200 kg wet, 200 kilograms dry. It has both.
1:25:09
It launched on a Falcon 9.
1:25:13
Uh launched back uh over one year ago.
1:25:16
So it's been up there for a year ago.
1:25:18
Air launched from the Air Force Western test range.
1:25:21
We're excited to talk to Ian about Apex and everything in space.
1:25:26
Uh we are going to do a full space day on the show soon.
1:25:28
um was talking to Ian about putting that together and we'll certainly bring him back for that, but we have him in the studio now.
1:25:35
So, welcome to the stream, Ian. Great to see you. How you doing? Boom.
1:25:38
Hey guys, great great to be here.
1:25:40
I heard you talking all about uh Aries and it's been on orbit over a year now and we have a lot more going up soon. Congratulations.
1:25:46
I mean, I feel like there's uh there's a very clear binary when you're starting a space company and you get your first thing into actual space.
1:25:54
Delian's talked about this with Varta.
1:25:55
It's like the number of companies that raised a lot of money and never got a single thing to space.
1:25:59
It was too high, but it's coming down and you're part of the movement.
1:26:02
So, can you break us down for us just the history of the company, the goal, the mission, how things are going, and kind of what what what's keeping you up at night now? Yeah. No, absolutely.
1:26:11
So, for a little bit of context, um company's very new, right?
1:26:16
We're only about two and a half years old at this point.
1:26:17
years old at this point. Uh I started the company with my co-founder Max Benassi who spent his career uh scaling production at SpaceX September of 2022 and it took us uh less than one year from starting the design of Aries a satellite that's on orbit from the clean
1:26:33
sheet design blank piece of paper to it actually working in orbit which you know to your point it's not actually just about can you put the piece of metal into space because frankly it's not too hard to put a piece of metal into orbit right you pay SpaceX you throw a hunk of metal on It has to work. And that I think is the
1:26:48
And that I think is the key thing that like Delian and I actually went to college together.
1:26:53
So we've known each other forever.
1:26:54
And I think one of the things that we bond over is both of our companies not only got something to orbit, but the damn thing actually works.
1:27:01
And that is something that is rare, frankly, in this industry.
1:27:05
And like there's other great companies out there. They get to orbit. It lasts a few months.
1:27:08
It lasts a few days, but having it actually work after a full year and keep working is a little bit unheard of in this industry.
1:27:14
So I'm just really proud of the team that we put together that's let us actually do this. Yeah.
1:27:19
So talk about the the actual product, what you actually put in space.
1:27:23
It's designed it's on your website says spacecraft platform.
1:27:26
I'm seeing satellite bus.
1:27:28
Break those terms down for us. Yeah.
1:27:30
So in the industry um a satellite itself is not just you know this piece of mail, right?
1:27:35
It's effectively comprised of two components.
1:27:38
One is called the bus and the other is the payload.
1:27:40
So, the satellite bus itself is all of the um hardware, electronics, the avionics, the control systems that actually let a payload function in space.
1:27:49
So, let's say you want to go take photos of the Earth, right?
1:27:52
You can't just stick a camera and a lens up into orbit.
1:27:54
You need to give it power.
1:27:55
It needs to be able to move around.
1:27:57
It needs to talk to the Earth.
1:27:59
The satellite bus does all of that.
1:27:59
In the US, we call it a satellite bus.
1:28:01
The rest of the world calls it a platform.
1:28:05
Frankly, platform, I have to say, you know, I'm a big fan of the US and America and everything that we're doing.
1:28:10
obviously, but platform might be a better name than a bus, but I just can't convince the US government to change their name from bus to platform for whatever reason.
1:28:17
They're stuck on calling it a bus.
1:28:18
Oh, well, well, we'll start calling it a platform.
1:28:21
So, yeah, I appreciate that.
1:28:23
I I I'd love to know about uh some of the some of the satellites that you're excited about going on the bus or the platform as we'll call it.
1:28:32
Uh what are you excited about?
1:28:35
We've heard a lot about uh internet communication.
1:28:37
And we've heard the story of Starlink.
1:28:38
Obviously, we've heard Planet Labs and Albido working on stuff to take better images. Are there any?
1:28:45
And then obviously Vardo is doing crazy stuff up in space.
1:28:47
Now, uh what's exciting to you and how are you designing the business to take advantage of those trends?
1:28:53
So when we call it a platform, we mean that because we really want to be a platform provider.
1:28:57
And whether you want to do something like take images of the earth or you want to beam power down to earth or you want to be able to, you know, shoot down missiles that are coming to attack the US, we want to be the platform that works for everything.
1:29:09
And I will say I think we've done a pretty good job.
1:29:12
If you look at the customers that we have so far, we have people who are using our platform from on one side of the spectrum.
1:29:18
They're doing hyperspectral imaging, which means you have a camera that could see in hundreds of colors that you and me as humans cannot describe.
1:29:26
And from space, they could look down at Earth and say, "That's farmland with potatoes that are 7 days old." Right?
1:29:31
Like that's nuts to be able to see from space.
1:29:33
Then we have other customers.
1:29:35
Uh Aether Flux is one example.
1:29:37
Um founded by a good friend of mine, Baiju.
1:29:39
uh he started Robin Hood and now he's uh going and uh he started aetherflux which is collecting power from space and beaming it down to earth all using our platform which is phenomenal.
1:29:49
Then we have other customers who are using it for defense missions right and is a great customer of ours.
1:29:54
we continue to do more and more with them.
1:29:56
And then there's others that I can't talk about yet at this time.
1:29:58
But the theme that honestly excites me more than anything, it's not just connectivity or taking photos of Earth, but something that has become frankly something we've always loved, but has only been talked about recently in the public domain is this idea of how do we develop the technology to protect the US and our allies from the scariest threats that are beginning to emerge.
1:30:18
And to me, that's everything from hypersonic glide vehicles to missiles to everything else.
1:30:25
And being able to use satellites in orbit to actually protect from this is phenomenal.
1:30:28
And that's, you know, you read the recent executive order titled Golden Dome, right?
1:30:32
It's asking for space-based capabilities that protect the US and our allies from these very scary threats.
1:30:39
And that is what, frankly, for me and my company, we're most inspired to support.
1:30:45
Um do you think this uh the speed at which you guys have not just become a company and developed products, do you think that can be the new normal just based on the the sort of talent density that SpaceX had and and other companies of that generation training people like yourself on how space works?
1:31:03
Cuz one one one question I have is uh people in Silicon Valley have for a long time had this sense of you know looking at an industry they know nothing about and saying I'm going to go do it. I'm going to fix it.
1:31:16
I got this guys and they can raise a lot of money for it.
1:31:18
And that's honestly in many ways played out very well in a bunch of different inst uh uh industries, but uh space seems like, you know, an order of magnitude uh harder potentially more.
1:31:29
And uh I'm curious if this is an industry where you can get people coming, you know, true outsiders coming in and saying, you know, actually solving problems or or you're better off, you know, putting your time in at an Apex or a SpaceX before kind of making that leap.
1:31:45
It it's a great question.
1:31:48
I mean, I'll be the first to admit I don't come from a space background.
1:31:51
I come from a software background.
1:31:52
I built an AI computer vision company and I sold that to Palanteer.
1:31:56
Like, that was my background.
1:31:58
Now, at Palanteer, I got to work on software related to satellites, but I wasn't manufacturing hardware. So, I'm an outsider.
1:32:03
I'd argue that you look at other successful companies out uh in the market, right?
1:32:07
Like we mentioned Delian Barta, right?
1:32:09
Like Delian does not necessarily come from a aerospace background, right?
1:32:12
Like he he was working on venture investing in other things before.
1:32:15
I think the secret though is you need to pair that outsider point of view with a brilliant technologist who can bring it together.
1:32:22
So in my case, my co-founder Max spent his career at SpaceX.
1:32:25
In Delian's case, he had Will Buuy who came from SpaceX as well.
1:32:27
And that t like the the combination of that together I think is what truly is special.
1:32:34
Um if you look at companies who are founded who frankly come too far from the direction of purely kind of the space industry, it's it's difficult, right?
1:32:42
Because you end up falling into the same traps that you're used to.
1:32:45
There's phenomenal companies out there um you know uh True Anomaly, Impulse, all these others that frankly like they haven't had success in orbit and their satellites um were unfortunately not able to succeed and that's bad for everybody, right?
1:32:57
You need a little bit more of that I think kind of outside perspective to come in and combine in order to succeed.
1:33:02
Um it's it's it's a tough industry.
1:33:05
I will say to answer your question about speed, I look at where we are today and all I can say is I certainly hope that the market is not going to go at the speed that we're going at because I think we're going way too slow, right?
1:33:15
Like I think we should be moving much faster.
1:33:16
I think you should look at what Apex has done and say, why did it take a year to go from a blank piece of paper to a satellite in orbit?
1:33:23
Why can't you do that in a week or a day?
1:33:25
That to me is where I think we need our mindset to be, not, oh my god, it went from 5 years to one year.
1:33:30
That's still slow and I think we all need to embody that.
1:33:33
Um can you talk a little bit about I mean your your craft is at it looks like something around uh between 450 and 500 kilometers up right now.
1:33:43
Um can you talk about what's happening in V Leo and then what's happening above you and where the biggest opportunity is going forward?
1:33:49
Oh man uh there's a lot of opportunity out there and I would say it's all orbits are uh uh fascinating from my perspective.
1:34:00
So if you think about it, right, we're here on Earth.
1:34:02
We're at, you know, 0 km of orbit, right?
1:34:03
We're we're standing here on the ground.
1:34:05
The higher you go, the different different capabilities are unlocked.
1:34:09
So there's capabilities that frankly are best served by being uh airborne, right?
1:34:12
So that is flying at, you know, um what an airplane or a high altitude vehicle or even a high altitude balloon would be at.
1:34:21
Then you move into very low earth orbit vlog the earth.
1:34:25
You're kind of looking at these different things.
1:34:28
You're much closer to the earth.
1:34:29
So, you're able to get much higher resolution imagery.
1:34:30
Um, so there's interesting trade-offs there.
1:34:34
Then you move into where we are, which is low Earth orbit.
1:34:36
That's an orbit that frankly, um, I don't think there was as much commercial demand for it until, call it about 10 years ago when this wave of proliferation started and you realized you could put a lot more vehicles up.
1:34:48
Um, then you go higher altitude than that and you go to medium earth orbit.
1:34:52
That's where GPS satellites are flying, things like that.
1:34:54
That's also a very interesting orbit because you're further away from Earth, so you're more protected from, you know, things like missiles that want to shoot down a satellite, but at the same time, you're not so far away that it takes too long for, you know, radio waves to communicate between Earth and the satellite.
1:35:09
And then you have uh GEO, right, which is where traditional satellites tend to operate.
1:35:13
And GEO is interesting because as Earth is rotating, you have the satellite rotating at the same rate.
1:35:18
So you're always over the same point over Earth.
1:35:22
And that's companies like Astronis, I think, have done tremendous work over there.
1:35:25
and I'm very impressed with the work they've done.
1:35:26
And then from there, frankly, you go to deep space lunar, you have companies like Astroforge launching asteroid mining missions, um setting kind of world records for the uh furthest a commercial satellite is gone.
1:35:39
Um the there's more and more capability with each of these orbits.
1:35:41
Uh can you talk about how the industry aerospace industry is reacting to the tariffs broadly?
1:35:50
Obviously, you're you know uh doing a lot in defense.
1:35:53
So, I'm sure you were not sourcing uh from from China, but uh but I'm I'm I'm sure like generally there's a lot of space companies that are kind of caught off guard here.
1:36:05
Um I'm curious what your read on it is.
1:36:07
Space is a global industry, right?
1:36:10
And I'm a big believer that we are in what I call the new space race right now and it is the US and our allies against China and Russia and we have to win.
1:36:18
Um that being said, as a proud US company, right, most of our parts come from the US.
1:36:22
So there's we looked at our tariff impact and it's pretty much nothing, right?
1:36:25
As it should be cuz we're a good US defense company.
1:36:29
Um we do do sell uh a lot of our satellites to allied nations overseas.
1:36:35
So as the tariffs come in, that doesn't affect us, but reciprocal tariffs from other countries may affect us as that happens.
1:36:40
Um, the good news is though, most things in aerospace and defense purposes tend to be exempt from these tariffs because at the end of the day, these are the kinds of trades that we want the US and our allies to be engaging in where we're sharing the cutting edge technology that allows us to stand up as one unified unit against those nearpeer adversaries.
1:36:58
So, I think the more commercialoriented areas of the space industry are probably more affected.
1:37:04
Um, that being said, like we are able to produce in the US and we're not having any issues with it.
1:37:09
So, what I would just say is, you know, we want to bring more of that knowledge and that manufacturing onshore and continue to see that rise as a trend. Awesome.
1:37:17
Well, thanks so much for joining us.
1:37:20
We'll definitely have you back.
1:37:22
We're going to cut our whole space day and go way way deeper, but I'm so glad you could come on the show today.
1:37:27
I really appreciate you taking the time. Thanks, guys. It's great to be here. We'll talk soon. Great. We'll talk soon.
1:37:32
Congrats on all the progress.
1:37:33
And I mean, he mentioned Ander is a customer.
1:37:35
We have a uh an a person from Anderol coming on the show, Jen, who uh has been leading the design charge over there, creating some incredible uh hero films.
1:37:45
I don't even know how you describe them.
1:37:47
Motion graphics, anime, all of the above.
1:37:49
But I wanted to talk to her about the evolution of Anderoll's design language.
1:37:55
Uh they still do a lot of these like military inspired uh films, but now they're in an entirely new territory with the animation.
1:38:03
and I'm sure we'll have a lot to talk to her about uh the AI trends, the different motion graphics trends, all the different things.
1:38:10
So, Jen, welcome to the stream.
1:38:14
Hey, thanks for having me. Thanks for joining.
1:38:16
I'm going to go out on a limb and say you're probably the most copied designer in tech right now.
1:38:21
And and you're I'll give credit to your team, too.
1:38:25
It just feels like uh the entire industry is just racing to like do what you guys did maybe two years ago, but you're consistently staying consistently staying out on the edge.
1:38:34
So, it's great to have you.
1:38:36
Got to keep them on their toes. Yeah, you do.
1:38:37
Just keep innovating and by the time you get copied, they'll just be copying the old thing.
1:38:41
Uh I do want to talk about that evolution of the design language.
1:38:45
It feels like the cartoon anime style probably came from Palmer.
1:38:50
He's a big Sword Art Sword Art Online fan.
1:38:52
Uh, was that the genesis of this?
1:38:55
And how do you think about the evolution of kind of the the the I don't even know what you describe it as like the brand language, the the the video themes, whatever you call it, the brand world. The brand world. Yeah. Yeah.
1:39:04
I mean, so I actually pitched this about two years ago doing an anime and like obviously very easy sell to Palmer, right?
1:39:12
Um, but it just wasn't the right time.
1:39:14
We didn't have the team that we have now.
1:39:15
Um, and it obviously pairs really well with Palmer's identity, right?
1:39:19
But also this anime style um for Andre just made a lot of sense.
1:39:22
So, if you look at, you know, anime as a medium, historically, it's um leaned really heavily into military themes, right?
1:39:30
The battles and the really complicated dynamics using like really futuristic machines like the Mecca and the cyberpunk of it all, right?
1:39:36
Um and like really advanced technology to like defeat adversaries and man, the future's here like Andrew is building it.
1:39:43
So, of course, like we lean into that.
1:39:45
Um and like you know Andrew like the way things that we do things um it's fundamentally different the way we build how we operate but part of the way that we do things differently is really the way we approach our communication and our product identity um the way defense looks and feels and we just want to cut through uh the noise right the sea of sameness like it's uh really authentic to to who we are.
1:40:07
Uh how has uh recruiting changed over the last couple years on the design side specifically?
1:40:16
there was not I I remember you know I imagine now you you guys have hundreds of applications for every role it's sort of normalized you know working in defense but um certainly only feels like it half you know five years ago it felt
1:40:31
like there was this pretty frequent tendency if you were if you were a startup doing anything defense related you would get consistently turned down by designers that said like yeah like this just not not in my wheelhouse but I think that's like changed changed. I'm
1:40:45
I'm curious what your read on it is.
1:40:46
Yeah, I mean I can speak from my own experience as well, right?
1:40:51
I think there comes a point in your career where um you want to utilize your skill set and uh you know towards a greater mission.
1:40:57
know towards a greater mission. And I think what we're finding now with um you know all the conflicts around the world uh a lot of the designers who are applying are coming to us saying like I really want to support and use um my creativity to be able to do this and what an amazing opportunity uh that
1:41:14
somewhere like Anderil is providing that is welcoming these people and I want to see that right like the endgame for me is um seeing all the different disciplines uh in design coming here and um creating all of this work is such a rewarding uh an unexpected uh thing for me to witness and so it's been really incredible. How did you process the
1:41:33
How did you process the Studio Gibli moment specifically in the context you guys came out with the film?
1:41:40
Was it was it Monday or something like that? I think it was Monday.
1:41:42
Um but you I'm sure you guys have been developing it way before Studio Gibli.
1:41:45
Uh, and it feels like you guys were maybe the last company to get to launch something like this before.
1:41:52
There will be an inevitable wave of others being able to kind of create versions of it, but for like, you know, 1/100th of the cost.
1:41:59
But I'm curious how how you reacted to that. Uh, so interesting.
1:42:05
I mean, like the Gibli like look that it's it's pretty good.
1:42:07
I will have to say, right?
1:42:09
It's a really it's really good. I'm really impressed.
1:42:13
And I think there's just like so many tools out there uh right now.
1:42:15
Um, you know, we launched our first one, Barracuda, uh, last year.
1:42:20
So, we were sort of like on this wave and we also started noticing the trends in the industry, too.
1:42:25
Like McDonald's did one, the Chargers did one and we're like, "Yeah, we must be kind of on to something here."
1:42:31
Um, it wasn't until like just recently this boom and obviously like the Gibly filter on chat had a lot to do with it as well.
1:42:36
had a lot to do with it as well. Um but I think for us it was really about again it made a lot of sense and uh you know pushing our uh you know skill set inhouse too our toolbox of all the different uh programs that we're using and you know one could argue that all the rendering tools uh that we've using
1:42:55
that we've been using for decades now are that was AI right um and so I think uh here like uh we want our autonomy to enable humans to do what humans do best policies all the time and robots to do what they do best and I think we've got the best of the best in our uh in-house focusing on making the art and we're utilizing the tools to do the job. Can
1:43:14
Can you walk us through the actual process uh of making one of these films?
1:43:18
Does it start with storyboarding and then you move into Blender Cinema 4D?
1:43:22
I' I'd love to know kind of like what the team looks like from the motion design perspective to take an from an idea to a finished film. Totally.
1:43:30
We certainly uh use cinema, you know, blender, uh red shift for texturing like uh you know, Rhino, Keyshot, I mean the list goes on.
1:43:39
Like everything starts with a mission set and as we call it the concept of operation conop for short.
1:43:45
And our storyboarding is really all about um distilling like an incredibly complicated as you can imagine technical and operational scenario into a like one to two minute narrative.
1:43:57
uh right that is digestible and is visually provocative for really any audience.
1:44:02
And um we do some key frames to dial in that texture and the lighting, get that right.
1:44:07
Then we move into previs pretty quickly.
1:44:09
Um and that really helps us block in all of that kind of technical authenticity early. We find a rhythm.
1:44:16
Then we go into production um and all like the final paintovers and stuff.
1:44:19
And and all the designers um you know that are involved in all all aspects of the project, they're working together in this process.
1:44:27
So, we've got art, we've got motion, editing, graphics, music, and sound, right?
1:44:31
And we're also vetting these storyboards with our customers along the way, making sure that we have their feedback.
1:44:36
Um, and so like this entire process, I think for the maritime short, the most recent one, we went from sketch to um to final video in like five weeks.
1:44:46
Wow, that's very It's crazy.
1:44:46
I mean, products at Andreal move quickly into production and like we're just here trying to trying to keep up.
1:44:52
Where where has AI been particularly impactful in your guys' process today?
1:44:59
Uh I'm sure Anderoll uh doesn't do a lot of vibe coding on the engineering side just because the uh you you need a bit more reliability.
1:45:08
You want to kind of make sure that that things work uh consistently.
1:45:12
But uh I'm curious where you're seeing an impact today and where you hope to see kind of more of an impact in the future.
1:45:19
Yeah, I know we're an AI company, but we don't use any AI in our art and certainly nothing generative, right?
1:45:25
And like I said, I think a lot of the tools that we use, right, could could be in that AI kind of bucket like we've been using it for a long time.
1:45:33
But, um, I think where I see this being really useful though and where I want to invest in is really in that previous stage.
1:45:39
So, and it's not just for animation.
1:45:42
I mean, for blocking in um practical photography and videos as well, like figuring out the composition and the lighting setups, the camera movements.
1:45:50
It's just so critical for us to have a watertight shot list whenever we're going into whether it's animation or a video.
1:45:56
A lot of the times, like especially on the video side, we have one one take to get get the shot, right?
1:46:03
And so, like kind of building this ahead of time and all of that planning um is so important for us.
1:46:09
And that's kind of where I'd like us to spend a little bit more time and investment in.
1:46:12
Yeah, it's interesting to think about the workflow now where even if you're planning to do a one-day shoot and it's going to be really expensive.
1:46:19
There's going to be a big crew, there's going to be in Andre's case like actual hardware involved, you still you might generate you might generate all the core scenes so you can like visualize it but then still actually go through it.
1:46:30
So the shot list just becomes like a basically a preview essentially.
1:46:38
uh with with AI kind of commoditizing or democratizing uh certain art styles, do you think that there's maybe alpha or even just like a creative urge to find specific art styles that are incredibly difficult for AI to work with?
1:46:53
We were talking about Houdini earlier and I don't know if you follow like what Man Versus Machine did with Nike and the fly knit.
1:47:00
It's like this incredible weaving of threads to create the shoe and it's basically impossible for generative AI to crack that at this point.
1:47:07
Um, but it's very different than like the Studio Giblly style which is kind of becoming easier and more accessible.
1:47:13
Uh, does it does does when AI commoditizes or democratizes a theme, does that push you to go deeper in that area because it's more accessible or find a different niche to kind of go and explore?
1:47:24
I think it's a different niche.
1:47:26
I think again like our subject matter is um really tied very intentionally to the mission set.
1:47:34
you know, it's hard to prompt uh things like, you know, uh we need these machines to talk to each other and come up with a way to do that, come up with a way to visualize that, right?
1:47:44
It could be any number of things.
1:47:45
be any number of things. And I think so really kind of helping guide that um by you know using uh I think just the people who are creating this art um is probably where we're going to stay and kind of where we're going to lean into
1:48:00
even harder is being so technology first in the ander organization broadly is that an acceleration for the motion design team because you can just ask a ask an engineer hey can you pass me like a CAD file and I'll export as OBJ and just import into Cinema 4D and Boom, I'm good to go. Or or because of like ITAR,
1:48:17
Or or because of like ITAR, I imagine that you might have to rebuild these models from scratch.
1:48:21
Like is there anything where you're like, "Hey, actually, we can't use that model over here because it's like we'd be leaking if it got hacked or something." Yeah.
1:48:30
No, we're definitely not um you know, picking up like the engineering CAD file and dropping it into this, right?
1:48:35
Like even for previous like we definitely uh you know, a lot of the designers on our team like they're very, you know, technically fluent.
1:48:43
So, um, a lot of the CAD work that's done even to get it there is like about scrubbing it and it's really like creating again turning it into almost a whole new OBJ that's watertight so you can like texture it and throw lighting on it, right?
1:48:56
So, there's like a ton of work that goes into even setting up the files.
1:48:59
Um, and obviously also like uh, you know, make sure that it's not like exactly the thing that, you know, we're building. Yeah.
1:49:07
Have you had any uh explorations using virtual reality in combination with motion design?
1:49:13
You know, you there's a lot of move towards, oh, we're going to do a lot of motion design in Unreal Engine.
1:49:18
I don't know if you've been tracking all of that stuff with the real time motion graphics, but uh you can imagine, you know, there's even these demos where you walk around, you sculpt something, then you export that OBJ, and then you're playing with that in Cinema or Houdini.
1:49:29
Uh I imagine that Polymer makes it easy to, you know, uh expense a VR headset if you need one.
1:49:36
But uh what have you have you played with any of that and are you optimistic about that going forward?
1:49:39
I mean like uh I I think uh like that that like Iron Man future is certainly something that I want.
1:49:45
Um there's so many times when like you know we're building something even my past experience like if I could just like just reach in there and just like pull that you know like I just want to like do it right.
1:49:54
Um and you know I I think uh if there were was uh you know a forum to do so like it may be in some of our exploratory phases.
1:50:02
our exploratory phases. Like right now we've got um designers we have a whole different pipeline just to kind of do experiments right we have an Australian designer his name is Joel he's doing some crazy experiments with Blender right now with textures just like you know pushing that to its limit and like
1:50:19
James who comes from working on movies like Avatar like you know he's trying to like recreate like you know worlds and like do world building and like Unity and stuff right so um yeah we're like constantly uh trying to figure out ways to also level up our technical ability ability to be able to uh do better discovery, right? Better experiments so
1:50:36
Better experiments so that we can like produce better work. Yeah.
1:50:40
Well, since it only takes you five weeks to produce these, uh you're on the clock.
1:50:43
We look forward to checking in with you in four weeks when the next one drops.
1:50:48
Uh but uh I think everyone I think everyone in the audience is very excited when these drop.
1:50:52
So, thanks so much for coming on the show and breaking it down for us.
1:50:55
That was really fascinating. Yeah.
1:50:56
And thank you for the work you do for the country. Yeah. Thank you.
1:51:00
Uh we'll talk to you soon. Thanks so much. Bye. Fantastic. Very cool. Yeah.
1:51:04
And uh has the blessing and the curse of whatever they do, they do it so well that they that they immediately get copied. Get immediately copied.
1:51:13
And imitation is not flattery. It is wrong. It is a shame.
1:51:18
And what would your mother say if you're imitating people?
1:51:21
Uh well, we have our next guest.
1:51:21
Come on into the studio, the Temple of Technology. We're ready to talk. How you doing? What's going on? I'm doing great. Welcome to the stream.
1:51:29
uh can you start with just giving a little bit little bit of a breakdown on uh who you are, what you do, what's happening this week?
1:51:36
Okay, my name is Ryland Hamilton.
1:51:36
I'm the co-founder and CEO of Blue Water Autonomy.
1:51:41
We design and build autonomous ships, ones that can operate across the open ocean, so think thousands of nautical miles of range and being out there for months at a time like no people.
1:51:51
And we just came out of stealth today.
1:51:53
So like super yachts for billionaires who want to just like hang out without any crew for months.
1:51:57
Is that what we're talking about?
1:52:00
Orally from a defense angle here. I like that.
1:52:02
That sounds a little bit easier than what I'm doing now.
1:52:06
No, but uh due to regulation stuff, it's the Navy.
1:52:08
They have an urgent need.
1:52:09
We have a ship building uh issue within the United States. Yeah.
1:52:13
And what's super cool about what we're doing is because there are no people on board.
1:52:16
So when you remove the bridge, the galley, the birthing, the showers and all that stuff, you can make the ship a lot smaller.
1:52:22
So our big Navy shipyards today are at capacity and we're trying to build destroyers and carriers and submarines as quickly as possible.
1:52:29
But our size allows us to build it in all these mid-tier shipyards all over the country and so we could build them today.
1:52:35
So how small are we talking like 25 feet, 10 feet? So think like 150 feet.
1:52:39
So like if you get too small, you can't go across like the ocean.
1:52:44
You don't have enough fuel.
1:52:45
you're going to get whacked in different kind of sea states.
1:52:46
Y, but if you're too big, you're too expensive.
1:52:48
So, there's kind of this sweet spot in the middle.
1:52:51
So, what does it take to cross the ocean?
1:52:53
Is this like you just diesel fuel and you're good or is there alternative? That's not a bad guess.
1:52:58
We're not reeling everything, but yeah, we're pretty practical.
1:53:00
pretty practical. like we're taking commercial commercial offtheshelf marine kind of um components but we're redesigning the ship from the keel up because uh our learnings have said that if you just take like a commercial design that's meant for people and put sensors on it that's okay for a week or
1:53:15
two but like eventually it's going to break down like you have one engine room and something leaks and if you have no one on board or no like you just you you can't you know you're going to be dead in the water in the middle of the ocean that's the last thing that our Navy wants. Yeah, that makes sense. Yeah, Yeah, that makes sense. Yeah, it's interesting.
1:53:26
Um, when when we first talked, Ryland, I think we were talking about this you there's this YouTuber and I'm blanking on his name now, but he just like nerds out about all the autonomous vehicles being used in Ukraine and it's crazy stuff.
1:53:37
Like there's people just applying, you know, putting like a sensor on a jet ski and it's just like out, you know, going around. Um, it's really wild. Uh, I'm curious.
1:53:48
So, I talked a little bit about your backstory earlier on the show.
1:53:49
You started your career in the Navy, then you went into robotics.
1:53:53
you were at Amazon, sold a company to Shopify.
1:53:55
Um, how much of both of those chapters of your career shaped what you're doing now?
1:54:03
It's kind of like you're the perfect guy to build this business, but you had to spend, you know, however long in the Navy and then, you know, do the robotics thing and and then actually, you know, do it at scale.
1:54:13
Um, but I'm I'm curious, you know, how um uh the kind of learnings you took from each of those chapters.
1:54:21
Yeah, I think this is kind of my dream job except we're a startup and we're hustling every day, working seven days a week. So, it's not easy.
1:54:28
But yeah, last 20 years, like my first four years, as you said, surface warfare officer in the Navy.
1:54:32
I was an engineering officer.
1:54:34
I was actually electrical officer.
1:54:36
So, honor ship, we had fires, floods, like you name it, we got hit by lightning, the ship would lose power. Uh, but I learned a lot.
1:54:42
lose power. Uh, but I learned a lot. So over the you know four years after I went to graduate school and then I actually got lucky and I joined this company called KA systems that got bought while I was there by Amazon became Amazon robotics was an employee 200 became the youngest person on the
1:54:56
leadership team but I was there within like a couple thousand robots were in the field we scaled it with Amazon to 15,000 and now like my guess is there are over a million robots in Amazon warehouses based off that company and that technology and so uh I left and then I started my own robotics company again collaborative autonomous mobile robots. So, ones that didn't need
1:55:14
So, ones that didn't need fencing or stickers or anything like that.
1:55:18
Um, and I kind of feel like right now we're building kind of one of the world's largest mobile robots.
1:55:22
It's just a ship that has to cruise across kind of the the oceans.
1:55:25
And so, we're taking all these lessons where you take the hardware primitives and you smartly design it into something that's reliable and works all the time and you got to write the software on top.
1:55:34
And so, like that's the talent that we have on our team right now.
1:55:36
Um, how when how uh how much or how little has the average Navy vessel advanced since you were on them back in the day?
1:55:46
I imagine it's not as much advancement as one would like.
1:55:48
So, we let me just be clear, we build the best warships in the world. Um, they are amazing.
1:55:56
You look at a guided missile destroyer, it's been through a lot of iterations.
1:55:58
It's it's [ __ ] awesome.
1:56:01
However, it takes a lot to make a design change on a warship because there's so many different components.
1:56:06
You have to make sure the supply chain's there.
1:56:08
So, it's a couple weeks ago, I was actually walking through a big Navy shipyard and I was looking and like you look at the gauge and and there's like the concept of IoT is just not there, but they work and it's been like hard tested.
1:56:18
And so, we have this opportunity when we redesign everything to kind of put and make everything smart and have, you know, sensors over everything.
1:56:25
And so right now just on our core design, it'll get better over time.
1:56:29
We have four 550 kind of uh data feeds into um our edge compute just to know what's going on in the ship.
1:56:35
So like we need to know everything, but that's just not where you're going to get on a modern Navy ship. That makes sense.
1:56:38
Um can you talk about the Jones Act?
1:56:42
Uh was it was it good or bad?
1:56:45
uh uh maybe you don't have to give that aggressive of a take, but uh in this era where deregulation is is popular, I'm curious if you think um that should be sort of dug into further.
1:57:00
Obviously, we're just not building nearly as many ships as some of our adversaries and and you guys are hopefully changing that, but um curious your thoughts.
1:57:08
So, I'm not an expert on the Jones Act, but I'm definitely aware of it.
1:57:12
But I think what's critical is we need to be able to build ships in the United States.
1:57:16
Like sea power has been the bedrock for our prosperity and security for the last hundred years and that needs to be you know we need to have sea power for the next 100 years.
1:57:26
So we can't outsource ship building.
1:57:26
We need to have that as a core ability within the United States and we need to get a lot better and increase our capacity.
1:57:32
I think because of the Jones Act we still build ships here in the United States and that's important.
1:57:37
Maybe there could be some tweaks to it but we can't outsource shipping to other countries.
1:57:40
It's like too critical uh for our nation.
1:57:42
Palmer Lucky was on the Sean Ryan podcast talking about how uh China has vastly vastly more ship building capacity and a big part of that is that uh civilian ships in China must be built to military specifications.
1:57:57
Uh they need to have rollon rolloff capabilities for troop carriers.
1:58:02
You could you could argue that maybe American civilian ships should have should be built to military specs, but that kind of spits in the face of the free market.
1:58:11
What if I don't want, you know, tank treads on my pleasure yacht?
1:58:14
Uh, but where do you stand on that as kind of just from an American standpoint?
1:58:19
So, I haven't wor walked through Chinese shipyard and I don't think I ever will.
1:58:23
I don't think you're welcome.
1:58:25
No, I don't think you'll be there.
1:58:27
Um, but I know that we build ships a lot better in terms of warships than any other country and they're built and if you look, there have been instance where we've been hit by mines or ship missiles or like any like anti-hship missiles and they withstand and they don't sink.
1:58:40
And so like a lot of credit to our navy in terms of how we design things.
1:58:43
But if we just try to compete with China head-on head in terms of like who can build more destroyers, they're going to win.
1:58:48
So we need to out innovate them.
1:58:50
And I think there are a lot of there's not a silver bullet, but if you look at the things that Andrew is doing underwater, it's awesome, right?
1:58:57
And if you look at our nuclear submarines, we're a generation ahead on submarines versus Chinese.
1:58:59
And now what we're trying to do is saying on the surface, let's complement our man fleet with an unmanned fleet.
1:59:06
So we can kind of be a force multiplier so we don't have to put a DDG in every area that we can kind of be the front line or the picket fence for some of these destroyers and put it in harm's way before you put, you know, the destroyer out there.
1:59:17
And so it's not like um you know I think the point is like let's innovate and try lean into sort of autonomous systems but let's not pretend like we're just going to change our ship building capacity overnight and compete with the Chinese.
1:59:29
How do you think hypersonics change the nature of naval warfare?
1:59:34
Uh it definitely changes it because if you think about our exquisite platforms, whether it's aircraft carriers or destroyers, like we're not going to put them kind of as close as we would to an area of conflict because of these anti-hship missiles and hypersonics with extended range.
1:59:46
Now, one thing you have to appreciate about our military, it's a system of systems.
1:59:50
So, there's a lot of and I'm not an expert.
1:59:53
There's a lot of cool stuff that's happening in space and others.
1:59:55
So, it's really hard to hit an aircraft carrier that's going 30 plus knots that's a couple thousand nautical miles away.
2:00:00
And we have some countermeasures to it.
2:00:02
So u but it definitely means that we're going to sort of keep these ships farther and farther away from areas where there could be uh either hypersonics hypersonics or anti-hship missiles. Great. That makes sense.
2:00:13
What do you think about um you mentioned early on about there seemingly is domestic our existing domestic capacity to make the size ships that Blue Water Autonomy is making.
2:00:25
Do you think there do you think that the actual manufacturing layer still needs to scale significantly or is the capacity there and it's just you know needs to be allocated more efficiently or or it needs to get more efficient? Yeah.
2:00:40
So the capacity is there to build them but we can do a lot better than just like take the status quo and so these shipyards they build fairies they build tugs they build barges they build crew transfer vessels but their business is kind of lumpy and so it doesn't make sense for them to invest in a lot of automation.
2:00:54
But when the Navy can give a strong demand signal and say we're going to build a lot of these, that's when you can really double down in terms of building like these shipyards of the future and put a lot of investment into it.
2:01:04
The other thing is since we've been designing this kind of ship from the keel up, everything's like, you know, in CAD, it's all there. It's all digital.
2:01:12
It's all already tied to a product life cycle management system.
2:01:14
And so we get the benefits of starting like today with modern tools to build this which allows us to kind of like outsource this to a lot of different like some of the parts of the ship could actually build be built in like a central facility in the United States.
2:01:26
You don't need to put everything in the shipyard.
2:01:28
But when you build a ship today, so let's say it's like a steelhole ship. You build the hole.
2:01:34
You may be building components.
2:01:35
You stitch it together and then you send all of the electronics and everything and then you commission it on the ship.
2:01:40
Well, that's the hardest place is actually turn on a system in the middle of a hole in a shipyard and it just takes a long time.
2:01:45
And so I think there's a much better way that we can kind of build these ships at scale.
2:01:47
How do you think about what Anderal is doing on the lattice side?
2:01:51
Uh I could imagine if you're ship if you're producing a ton of autonomous ships, you'd want those to be somehow teaming with dive XL submarines and drones overhead and all sorts of stuff.
2:02:03
And I'm sure the the modern war fighter would want to have all of that on a map essentially or be able to integrate all of that.
2:02:09
How are you thinking about integration with other systems that might be competitive in the financial markets but but close close allies in the uh in the geopolitical sense?
2:02:21
Well, I haven't talked to Andrew yet, but we just came out of stealth and maybe because this podcast he'll reach out to me, someone from the Lattis team. Okay.
2:02:27
Uh, no, but I think it's really important that we talk to systems like Lattis because we're not going to be the control system for all these like USPS that are out there.
2:02:35
That's not our bread and butter.
2:02:36
Our bread and butter is building autonomous ships that are reliable and that just work.
2:02:40
And so, we want to make sure that we have the integration layer to kind of connect all these different systems.
2:02:44
At my last company, we built an automation solution where we over 120 warehouses all throughout the world and we talked to like many different types of warehouse management systems.
2:02:53
So we needed to build in that integration layer and not just be beholden to one WS and we have some of those same people on the team and that's what we'll need to build like we need to be agnostic to kind of the layers that we uh speak to above us.
2:03:04
Um random question not related to uh the current business but I'm really interested to get your take on it.
2:03:12
Um uh we've talked a lot about the various companies doing humanoid robotics.
2:03:17
Uh, one of the the pitches for humanoid robots is that, hey, we have all these, you know, um, fulfillment centers throughout the world. Humans are working them.
2:03:26
Humans are great at a lot of stuff, but they're also, you know, some sometimes they wake up and they're sick or they don't have, you know, enough energy or whatever.
2:03:34
Um, you were working in robotics in fulfillment for a very long time at the, you know, incredible scale.
2:03:41
uh do you think that uh humanoid robotics are overhyped in the context of fulfillment or uh really have you know potential there that you know maybe people aren't seeing?
2:03:52
So humanoid robots are very divisive in my kind of like robot mafia.
2:03:56
Um I I kind of think of like when I started my last robotics company was 2015.
2:04:02
and everyone's saying in 5 years we're going to have autonomous vehicles and it ended up being 10 years and I kind of feel like we're at that moment where it's super exciting to see all the progress we're making.
2:04:12
I just don't think it's been five years.
2:04:13
I think it's closer to 10 years.
2:04:15
Uh and I don't think humanoid robots you can do everything but I think they're super exciting.
2:04:18
Uh one thing actually like a little tidbit that I learned recently is that I was everyone's like why don't you just put it on a big mobile base? It's a lot easier.
2:04:26
Well, if you think about like a warehouse and some of the activities that you do, when you have two little legs, you can actually get into like areas that are a lot tighter, but if you have a really small mobile base, they're going to tip over if they're trying to carry something heavy.
2:04:36
So, I think there's a lot of experimentation that's going to happen.
2:04:39
Um, also like things about humanoids is when they fall, humans, we brace ourselves with our hands.
2:04:45
Well, then those hands need to be robust.
2:04:46
If you put a lot of sensors on the hand and they fall all the time, well then it's not going to work and you have to repair them.
2:04:50
So, I think there are a lot of things that we're gonna have they're gonna have to iterate on over time, but there's a ton of investment that's happening in that space and it's super exciting for robotics overall. Uh, last question. Last question.
2:05:00
In the context of humanoids, is there ever a point in the future where you could imagine a humanoid on one of your ships or is there just going to be better for better steer the ship directly? That's the future.
2:05:14
It's going to be a sailboat operated by humanoids. Yeah.
2:05:16
Not not that not that silly, but but I'm curious if you could imagine a future where there or there'll just be better better form factors.
2:05:24
Um I don't see it right away.
2:05:27
Uh I don't think it makes sense to have a humanoid actually turn the wheel when you have a motor turn the wheel.
2:05:30
Just just saying that's what I want.
2:05:32
I want to be drinking Don Peron in the back having the the sails go up and down by the humanoids.
2:05:38
Pull pull pull pull pull the ropes. Here's the thing.
2:05:40
Um, I actually think as we think about building our ship, we're like the taxi for a bunch of other UXPs.
2:05:46
So, it's not humanoids you can put on these, but think about what Android just launched, they just launched these really cool UUVs or whatever they call them.
2:05:52
Um, or if you think about drones or other autonomous aircraft, like we could become the modern aircraft carrier to carry these kind of drones or these smaller things that don't have the range, but we can carry them out in the same way that SpaceX is carrying all these cool satellites uh up into space.
2:06:08
like we want to be that vehicle that makes the cost of getting these things out there cheaper and so we can carry a portfolio of these kind of drones on our show. That's fantastic.
2:06:16
I mean, congratulations on the launch.
2:06:18
Uh we look forward to following the company and thanks for coming on the show. Thanks for having me. This is fantastic. We'll talk to you soon. Bye.
2:06:27
Next up, we have Zach from Conductor AI coming on the show in a minute. Uh that was really cool.
2:06:32
I if I had one more chance, I was going to ask him about to take me on a tour of the various seas across the world.
2:06:38
I I've heard that the Taiwan Strait is particularly unique in terms of the the wave formations and the tides and so that there's certain times almost like Taiwan doesn't want to be invaded.
2:06:55
It's like they perfectly designed the sea topology or uh topography built different for sure. Yeah.
2:07:01
Anyway, do we have Zach in the studio yet? Not yet.
2:07:06
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2:07:31
Head over head on over to Bezel and choose a pilot's watch from their fully authenticated luxury selection.
2:07:35
Tell them the technology brother sent you. I love that. Thank you. Thank you for posting. Great post, Nate. Fantastic.
2:07:43
And we have Zach here in the studio. Let's bring him on in.
2:07:45
Uh welcome to the show, Zack. Good to be here. The man. Thanks for having me.
2:07:50
The man with no ex account. Oh, yeah.
2:07:52
You're you're the second guest uh I think in show history to not be on X. What's going on?
2:07:56
I mean, are you not into technology and business?
2:08:00
What's truly tragic is I'm in totally a Twitter.
2:08:03
Like I've actually blocked Twitter on my phone because I use it so often. I just never post. I only read. Okay.
2:08:09
So clearly clearly I need to become more involved in the seed and actually Yeah. Yeah.
2:08:13
Well, if you create one tonight after the show closes, we'll tag you in the clips.
2:08:18
We'll try and get some audience.
2:08:20
Or you can or you can never post never even use the app. Just come on the show.
2:08:24
We'll clip it up and then then we'll post it for you and you could get all the benefits with none of the time invested other than, you know, like he's so elusive.
2:08:31
He doesn't even account yet I'm seeing him all over X in these viral clips. I love it.
2:08:34
Anyway, uh can you do a brief introduction on you, the company, kind of what you're building? Sure. Thanks so much. I'm Zach.
2:08:41
Um we're building Conductor AI.
2:08:41
Um a company designed to automate paperwork in the government and yeah, that's what we're doing.
2:08:47
Uh what's the first go to market?
2:08:50
Who's the first customer?
2:08:50
Uh what's the first piece of paperwork that you're automating? Sure.
2:08:53
So we are working with the air force, the office of the secretary of defense and a few other defense customers around problems like security classification, foreign military sales, ITAR controls and things that are these very important and very sensitive document review workflows that if you've spent a lot of time working with the Department of Defense um you will unfortunately encounter that we are trying to hopefully make it easier.
2:09:22
here to tell us how much just how much just how much paperwork does the government do?
2:09:28
Is it I I feel like it's a lot, but I think it's probably more than I'm even imagining. Yeah.
2:09:33
So, the government there's internal estimates they have they spend basically like $18 billion a year on classifying information and it's this very complicated apparatus that has grown over the years to ensure that you know we keep secrets safe.
2:09:48
one of the unfortunate byproducts of having a complicated and expensive classification apparatus that can make it very very hard to actually get information to the people that need it.
2:09:58
And so there are many many separate chains in the government around how you can share and approve and release information and conductors trying to make it easier to solve to solve that problem.
2:10:12
And then other problems where you have these like very complex approval processes and navigate through them.
2:10:19
How much of this is just going from like paperwork to a modern, you know, CRUD app using standard software as a service versus AI agents, LLMs, all the on trend tech.
2:10:31
So the the people in the government that are doing this, it it's it they actually often have some form of of of system here for this.
2:10:39
What what you we're actually seeing is the people that are sort of doing these that are sort of these adjudicators that have these very important jobs of saying yes you can say this, no you can't.
2:10:51
They're sort of in charge of these complex approval process.
2:10:55
They the challenge for them is there's not just like one page of rules or like one document.
2:11:02
Oh, this is the rules to follow.
2:11:04
there's like 20,000 pages of policy that they are supposed to have read and follow and apply on each of these cases.
2:11:11
And obviously that's incredibly hard.
2:11:13
And so what we're trying to do is make it easier to uh more quickly read and apply those those that very complicated policy guidance to those four PowerPoint slides that you're trying to Yeah.
2:11:26
that you're trying to Yeah. when you're working with the government like this is are you are you following like the standard defense tech sales playbook like SBIR program of record or is it just a completely different sales motion for you the so I worked at Palanteer for
2:11:41
seven years before this so we have some familiarity there civers are great they're not they're not all worth the same our very first contract that we got was a cber um but we have unfortunately we haven't won another one since then so since then it's all been um getting OTAAS in subawwards off of existing contract vehicles. But yeah, the go to
2:11:58
But yeah, the go to market motion in the government is I mean frankly like you know it's fortunate I worked at Palance so I sort of like saw how this worked from a best-in-class perspective but if I was a 23-year-old just starting out I'd have I have no idea how you how you'd figure out how to navigate this world.
2:12:15
It is not friendly to outsiders. Yeah.
2:12:17
not friendly to outsiders. Yeah. Is it is it weirdly frustrating when you see just how much the government spends on tons of random things and yet you're selling them a product where you're like, you know, this is going to save you a bunch of like time and and you
2:12:32
know, through that save you save you money if if you just sort of adopted it because it's the or is it almost like a positive feature that it's hard for the government to start even even if they know they want something, it can be hard to to you know get on boarded. and and and and yeah.
2:12:49
Yeah, it's more the latter there.
2:12:51
It's like the the thing that's I found pretty interesting is that sort of these challenges you have of of how hard it is to break in, how hard it is to get these first contracts are in some ways the defensibility from a company perspective, right?
2:13:03
It's that like it does take a super long time to get your foot in the door with these organizations and then build trust.
2:13:12
But to a large extent because of how how much process there is once you're in it is there is a bit of a word of mouth.
2:13:20
So I think that's like I don't have a Twitter but there's people in the government and various like means that people communicate in the government and that's that's sort of where if you're in the defense tech space you want you want to be more present if you will.
2:13:32
uh how much of your company is built on like this thesis that there would at some point be a shift towards like government efficiency and then you maybe hit the jackpot with uh like Doge becoming like the biggest meme in government maybe ever.
2:13:49
ever. Um, but it seems like some of the like even though Doge has been somewhat controversial and partisan, uh, you know, people have gone back to, oh, like Joe Biden was quoted talking about efficiency and Obama was talk was quoted
2:14:01
thinking about this process and Clinton was saying this again and so, uh, government efficiency could be something that becomes bipartisan, could stick around for a very long time and you you suspected that this was going to be an ongoing trend. Was that part of the
2:14:12
Was that part of the thesis behind starting the company?
2:14:16
Yeah, I mean frankly, well, part of the thesis was just I lived it and I'd seen all of these processes like you knew it was very clear to me early on and you know, as AI, you know, became very popularized that there were so many of these complicated paperwork approvals process that I'd experienced and and been frustrated by.
2:14:34
I do believe that I mean, I think that making the government more efficient is a good thing.
2:14:41
I think that Doge is certainly um you know is now definitely a partisan effort, but I think it's inarguable that we can make the US government operate more effectively and and I personally believe that that's a really good a good thing to do is we want the government to be more effective.
2:14:58
What I I don't want what I want to make sure when these processes though are not they're not fake. Like they're very real.
2:15:09
Like the I I don't personally believe that we should you should be allowed to build any form of weapon and then sell it externally with no form of review process.
2:15:19
Like these are important complicated procedures to review.
2:15:21
What constitutes a weapon? What doesn't?
2:15:26
These are actual questions and those processes shouldn't just be discarded or written of as like, oh, that's unnecessary government bureaucracy, but we do want to make it possible to to navigate those complicated chains without it being a three-year cycle.
2:15:40
How how do you think about So, you're creating workflows, but then and and so you guys are a software company, but you inevitably, I'm sure, run into these sort of like offline workflows.
2:15:52
And is that a is that I mean I'm guessing right in in sense of like hey like this was approved but we need to take it to this other building to get this other person to sign off on it and it's like I is that is that the right need or can you fully digitize it?
2:16:10
You do see you definitely do see that like I can tell you that my colleague Eric like some workflows are on classified networks and you can only access classified networks in certain spaces.
2:16:23
So we are literally flying to places to go to upload forms to say yes we can be deployed into this network so that our software can be deployed to perform this type of document review.
2:16:36
So you definitely see this challenge around um there's only certain access points and you kind of that just is the reality of it.
2:16:45
you're there's not it's going to take a while and there's a lot of process to be automated.
2:16:51
Uh I mean you mentioned like 20,000 pages of rules that seems like you might need a large context window for some of these problems if you're throwing an LLM at it.
2:17:04
Uh what are you tracking in the progress of the foundation models?
2:17:07
I imagine you're not using DeepSeek.
2:17:09
Maybe you're taking a look at Llama.
2:17:12
uh what are you excited about in terms of uh foundation model breakthroughs?
2:17:16
Is it just IQ or is it uh you know rag or any of these kind of buzzwords that we're hearing about? Yeah.
2:17:22
So, one of the challenges that we deal with is the the state-of-the-art like the GPT 4. 5 uh Gemini 2.
2:17:31
5 they are really really good at a lot of this but in the networks that we're operating and for a lot of our government customers they can't yet they can't yet access those.
2:17:41
So for us there's this somewhat it's really an engineering tension.
2:17:43
It's like we can see oh my god this is going to work so well in two years when these models get accredited to be available in your network.
2:17:52
But for now it's what is the state-of-the-art model that we can actually deploy and run in these more resource constrained environments.
2:17:59
One of the ways that we're working around this problem now is, and I'm sure other other, you know, companies at the at the workflow layer are are doing something similar, is we're trying to disambiguate the the user from the we're trying to basically make it so when like a user submits a request, they don't expect an answer instantly.
2:18:20
And so, if you think about how you interact with like if you were submitting, I don't know, if you ever renovated your apartment or anything like that. Yeah. Yeah.
2:18:27
So, you probably had to get like a permit from the Department of Buildings or something.
2:18:31
You submitted your your form into the Department of Buildings and then someone got back to you maybe three months later or something like that that we want to compare against that type of cycle time.
2:18:41
So, we want to have a workflow where you submit a document and then you get an email response 10 minutes later.
2:18:47
Oh my god, that's amazing. That's so fast.
2:18:49
But if you're in like a UI layer of software and you upload a document and then it takes 10 minutes to process, that's actually kind of a bad user experience.
2:18:56
So, we want to try and drive it to like the human review side. Yeah.
2:19:01
I I was talking to Jordy about this a long time ago, like in in the permitting process, I wish that there was just a button like check permit compli uh comp compliance in the CAD software, right?
2:19:12
And it would just be real time like you can't save the file if you're in violation and then you just know that yeah, when you send it off, it's going to be approved.
2:19:19
Uh and that should be deterministic.
2:19:20
And this is so much of what we actually see is that in these like complicated review these complicated cases, so much of the stuff that like kicks you back is not some edge case question of oh is this permitted or not.
2:19:33
It's like you just don't understand what it is you're submitting.
2:19:36
Like and I I apologize I have to be like a little vague when I talk about like what these things are, but it's like um you just filled this out wrong.
2:19:43
And like I can tell you instantly, hey, you fil you're gonna get instantly rejected.
2:19:47
say this instead and it's gonna take rather than taking four weeks and requiring like nine separate signatures, you're going to be good to go and the material information is almost identical.
2:19:58
And that's that's the type of thing we're trying to push back to the user very quickly so that they understand, oh, this is a really hard question, but this is something that you can just get a yes on. If that makes sense. Makes sense. Any last questions? Very cool. I'm excited.
2:20:14
Uh we we recently went off uh our paper process.
2:20:19
So once you're starting to uh once you crack every everything topic that we would discuss, we'd print out the tweet and read it on the very very complicated work. Now we're going digital.
2:20:28
Yeah, we're going digital, too.
2:20:29
So we're glad that you're helping the government do the same.
2:20:32
It's been much more efficient.
2:20:34
It has been more efficient for us.
2:20:34
Um well, thank you for coming on.
2:20:35
Yeah, we really appreciate and the work and the work that you're doing.
2:20:38
Yeah, you guys hope hope to see you on X.
2:20:40
Oh yeah, I'll make sure I I create an account. Talk to you guys soon. We'll talk to you soon. Thanks. Bye.
2:20:47
Uh next up we have Paul from Carbon Robotics coming in.
2:20:50
Uh Carbon Robotics, very cool company, has built a uh self-driving tractor, the laser weeder G2, the world's most precise weed control, and the Auto Tractor, the most dependable tractor autonomy solution.
2:21:03
Very excited to talk to the Auto Tractor. Great names, honestly.
2:21:09
The laser weeder G2 combines computer vision, AI, deep learning technology, robotics, and lasers to identify crops versus weeds.
2:21:15
And it shoots the weeds with lasers.
2:21:17
It's so intelligible for uh what is probably a very complicated product.
2:21:23
Um and it seems uh a lot more healthy than what uh you know, just dumping pesticides.
2:21:30
You're going to love this.
2:21:30
I'm going to love this guy. This is amazing.
2:21:31
Yeah, I'm going to love this. Yeah. Eliminate hand labor. Cut cost by 80%.
2:21:34
Reduce labor costs and address labor shortages.
2:21:38
eliminate the need for herbicides and manual mechanical cultivation.
2:21:40
You want to know something fun, John? What? The S&P 500 closed up 5. 7% 5% on the week. Wow. On the week. That's great.
2:21:51
Uh well, if you're doing well, let's bring Paul into the studio.
2:21:54
Paul, welcome to the stream. Hello. How are you doing? How's everything? We're doing great. Thanks for joining us. What's going on?
2:22:02
Would you uh would you kick it off for us with just a little introduction to Carbon Robotics and yourself? Man, you know what? I love I love this job.
2:22:10
I love our company so much. We do some cool stuff.
2:22:12
Our company, we build AI robotics.
2:22:14
That's the core of our company.
2:22:17
Um but we focus on agriculture and agriculture is such a great place to be.
2:22:23
So, we make the thing called the laser weeder.
2:22:26
Um maybe you've seen videos of the laser weeder. Um I hope you have.
2:22:31
And the laser weeder uses an AI system.
2:22:33
We find weeds live in farm fields and we kill them with lasers. So that's that's great. Why is that good?
2:22:40
Because you don't have to spray chemicals all over the place.
2:22:41
That's what I was just that was just what I was saying before you joined.
2:22:44
It's just it's a beautiful future. It's a beautiful future.
2:22:48
future. The thing is like the you know for for years I mean we had we had you know humans have been doing agriculture for thousands of years maybe tens of thousands of years and and we invented this technique for growing all of our
2:23:01
food and you know we came up with things like you know chemical fertilizer and nitrogen based fertilizers and and and and herbicide sprays and things like that that just like doussing crops but that all how we built our food supply. But now we're at the point where we can
2:23:15
But now we're at the point where we can use AI systems to be very uh specific and targeted in only killing the weeds that are in the field and not having to just dump these chemicals all over the place.
2:23:27
And then you know of course we have all these immigration problems and things like that.
2:23:30
And so if we can just do all this work through automation it just helps everybody farmers.
2:23:34
So little backstory, I found out through experimentation that I was super sensitive to food created with gly like with glyphosates in the process, which is like traditionally from from what I know, I'm not an expert, but uh any you know, sort of mass-produced flour uh in the United States for me was like, you know, basically uh a no-go.
2:23:57
But uh so I I was super excited about this.
2:24:00
I I guess like some of the stuff I'm super interested in is is uh agriculture is huge sector of our economy. It's critical.
2:24:10
Uh but it's also I imagine in some ways been uh I'm interested to hear about the adoption of your products and and selling these because if you go to a farmer and they're using let's say these like you know massive amount of pesticides and they're really really you know cheap and then you say like hey I can replace this but it's this you know device.
2:24:31
um you can do financing and stuff like that, but um talk to talk maybe about kind of like the go to market and what you're seeing from an adoption standpoint and and just the like receptivity to to the technology because I imagine when you go in it's you're not like you're leading probably with the value that you're offering, not like hey look at this new AI system.
2:24:52
They're like, "Well, you know, yeah, you um you know, okay, so glyphosate is the main chemical ingredient in Roundup."
2:25:01
And a lot of people have problems with with Roundup.
2:25:04
Um they think some of the extra sensitivity for things like celiac disease is can be kicked off by by glyphosate.
2:25:12
There's some evidence for that stuff, but I think everybody has this experience with um somebody who had some kind of food intolerance intolerance or allergies and then wound up going, you know, to Europe or whatever.
2:25:25
You hear this all the time, right?
2:25:26
I went to Italy and I discovered I can eat pasta.
2:25:27
Why can't I eat pasta in the United States?
2:25:29
Well, a lot of this is because that, you know, they I mean they do these studies um where if you were to take 100 people and you do a urine analysis on those 100 people, at least 80 85% of those people have glyphosate in their system at any given time.
2:25:48
And so, um and and we know that glyphosate is a carcinogen.
2:25:52
And like many carcinogens, the question is just how much is enough to to cause a response, not is it bad for you?
2:25:58
It's like what dosage and how sensitive are you? Yeah.
2:26:02
To be clear, like this this is the thing that we're using to just kill all life out of farmland, right?
2:26:09
Like we're using it, you know, to basically and it's somewhat targeted.
2:26:10
I guess this is like where GMO crops come in, where GMO crops can be resistant to glyphosate, but it just kills everything else. Is that is that correct? That's exactly it. Yeah.
2:26:20
So in in um in your vegetables um onions, carrots, broccoli, cauliflowers, you know, celery, any of those veg, lettucees, right?
2:26:29
We don't have we don't have Roundup ready vegetables.
2:26:34
We don't have Roundup resistant vegetables.
2:26:36
So we have Roundup ready versions of corn and soy and wheat.
2:26:42
Um and in those fields they can just completely douse the field and the crops are resistant against um the herbicide.
2:26:50
But in everything else that you eat the Roundup but you know the herbicides actually really damage the crops as well.
2:26:55
And so um it's also just it's not good for the soil.
2:27:00
There's runoff issues you know all of these things.
2:27:05
And um but you touched on an interesting thing. Okay.
2:27:10
So, you know, I have a tech background and I come from places like Seattle and San Francisco and our farmers are in places like Selenus and Iowa and um Oll right and so uh I'm coming into these areas talking about the things that we've developed and you're right we we can't talk we don't say hey do you want
2:27:36
AI or you know what is your thoughts on the latest trends and neural nets or you know right um and and and so we really are value selling and we're we're talking about um the ways in which we can we can give them a solution to how they can keep their fields clean of weeds, not spray all over the place. Um,
2:27:55
Um, and also not have to rely so much on labor because labor is really the big hot button issue for these farmers even more than the chemicals because we just don't have enough labor in the United States to do all of our agricultural work.
2:28:11
And in fact, almost all of it is migrant labor.
2:28:13
And so with your labor constrained, the last thing you want to do is send is send people out into the pick.
2:28:23
That's just the least value I've had because the chemicals don't you wind up sending folks out the field anyway.
2:28:33
And then then especially if you're producing organic crops, your access to herbicides, I mean, there's only a couple things you can use.
2:28:40
And so you use people a lot. You use labor a ton.
2:28:45
And so we talked to them about the way is the way we did it, but that's not the selling point.
2:28:49
Um, and so the cool thing is that the farmers are way more receptive, inventive, um, looking for new solutions, um, willing to try things than I ever could have imagined.
2:29:05
So, as a customer base, they're they're kind of the they're like the funnest, coolest, most easy to work with, easy to get to know people.
2:29:12
Um, especially, you know, I came from it, man.
2:29:16
If I'm gonna sell to, you know, a storage CIO or a or a farmer, right, I'll take the farmer all day long, right? Yeah.
2:29:22
Um and it's like the guy who's gonna write me, you know, our machines are expensive.
2:29:26
Going to write me a multi-million dollar check is like the fifth generation farmer whose, you know, name is on the building and, you know, his great greatgrandfather started the farm.
2:29:37
And so there's like history and pride and um wanting to and really wanting to grow good food and wanting to make help make people people healthy, wanting to provide a good product and doing everything they can to do that. And so they need help. They need automation.
2:29:55
They need solutions that can do stuff that isn't going to cost them a bunch of money that you know at least when it when it's expensive like ours that like you can show the ROI, right? And so here's my thing.
2:30:05
I want to make sure that all my machines pay back within three years.
2:30:10
So, whatever money you outlay, that should that should be saving you enough money every year that by the time that threeyear horizon hits, like you're basically it's paid for itself. Yeah.
2:30:19
Everything from then on is just what is the what what is the market structure of the farming industry right now?
2:30:26
You've heard about like these mega farms kind of buying each other, rolling up, but it sounds like at the same time you're still running into folks who it's a fifth generation farm. Right.
2:30:33
Who are you selling to and what is the overall trend in the industry?
2:30:37
Is it consolidating still?
2:30:39
There's been consolidation.
2:30:41
I don't know if I would say it's consolidating a lot because I most of the farms that we've been selling to since the beginning of this company um are still their own independent entities.
2:30:53
There's been some uh private equity acquisitions.
2:30:55
Um there's been more PE activity than there has been consolidation. I'll say that.
2:31:02
So, it's been a farm that's running very well, that's been going for a long time, that is highly profitable, that a PE firm comes in and buys and operates, but I have not seen, you know, eight farms that suddenly get gobbled up and turned into one giant entity.
2:31:15
So I think I think um I think the consolidation part of the reason you get consolidation too is that you get economies of scale with the consolidation and some of that and what that affords you is the ability to buy more modern equipment and be at the at the cutting edge of technology to get the most you know optimum solution.
2:31:36
So we kind of pride ourselves at laser weeder our main product um is actually available to growers of all sizes.
2:31:43
So, we kind of help them be competitive, right?
2:31:47
We help them be competitive and not have to get consolidated.
2:31:48
Um, so, you know, I feel pretty good about that.
2:31:53
I But I I do not feel like there's been a massive amount of consolidation since we've been selling.
2:31:57
How how do you think about uh on what timeline is robotics really deflationary within food and agriculture? Right?
2:32:08
Because the idea here is like on a long enough time horizon if you don't need human labor which I imagine is the core kind of cost for a lot of products you could and especially if you can make it you know a lot cheaper to even do organic food.
2:32:24
You can imagine a world in the future where organic food is priced similarly with you know whatever perfectly GMO you know grown um crops. Mhm.
2:32:33
Um I think what's really what's happening is it's I kind of look at it the other way around.
2:32:42
The herbicides are actually getting less effective.
2:32:45
We're getting we're getting herbicide resistance in the weed population.
2:32:49
There are weeds coming through the country right now that we don't have chemicals that can kill.
2:32:54
And so and so that's going to keep happening just like we have antibiotic resistant back bacteria when you have ovaries of antibiotics.
2:33:00
Same same process is happening.
2:33:02
So I look at if you just roll the clock forward, what do you what do you think is going to happen in the end, right?
2:33:07
Where are we going to be pick some time horizon in a hundred years?
2:33:11
Well, most of the chemicals aren't going to work anymore.
2:33:13
We're going to have be severely labor constrained on ability to buy to to grow food.
2:33:19
We're going to really care about the health of the soil because we have a limited amount of that.
2:33:24
And so how do you what do you need to do?
2:33:26
Well, you need to plan for a world in which you're not so heavily dependent on chemicals because they are they are getting less useful every year.
2:33:34
You need to be able to protect your top soil, which means not digging stuff up so much, right?
2:33:38
One of the common techniques, one of the ways in which you could help kill weeds with with cultivation where you run blades through the ground, but that's bad for the top soil, right?
2:33:47
So, it's like, okay, so where we have to get to is a point where we're not we're not damaging our top soil.
2:33:55
We're not spraying stuff all over the place.
2:33:57
So, we're actually, I think, helping to keep things stable.
2:34:01
The price of food is, you know, it's priced into the CPI, right?
2:34:06
So, so it's one of the core components.
2:34:08
And so, what happens is it kind it it like many of the main constituents of the economy kind of tracks with the economy, right?
2:34:15
It doesn't really separate in the way that some of the more consumer goods will.
2:34:19
Um, so I don't know if I'd call it deflationary so much as being able to sustain the profitability of the farmers that we so depend on to give us healthy food.
2:34:33
How how have your customers reacted to the tariffs?
2:34:36
Uh, I'm sure you've had conversations or just heard kind of industry news cuz obviously I'm you know as much as we consume the food that we produce in the United States, we also export it around the world. It's true.
2:34:53
Okay, so the United States for the last uh three or four years has been in an agricultural trade deficit.
2:35:01
Um, this is relatively new for us.
2:35:04
we that's not been the case um before that and um this is this is concerning part of the part of the problem is that we are losing acreage um to Mexico and south of the border every year because of the labor challenges and the price of things like herbicides um but and just sort of how much there's a lot of government regulation as well and that makes a challenging environment for these for for these farmers.
2:35:35
So in that sense, maybe the tariffs kind of help.
2:35:38
Um but there's a lot of negatives here, right?
2:35:43
That it makes it it does reduce the place in places in which they can sell, right?
2:35:47
Even though we're at a agricultural trade deficit, we still are selling a lot of stuff overseas.
2:35:51
And a lot of this equipment, you know, components and parts all come from overseas.
2:35:58
Everything electronic comes from Taiwan, right?
2:36:00
We're not whatever you want to think about the chips act, right?
2:36:04
we're not up and running, right?
2:36:05
I can't buy GPUs that are made in, you know, Iowa or whatever, right? Um, right.
2:36:10
So, I mean, I realistically, you know, right, all of that stuff still needs to come inbound.
2:36:14
And then we do a fair amount of business overseas as well.
2:36:19
We sell a lot into Europe and a lot into Australia.
2:36:21
Um, so for us, that's challenging as well.
2:36:24
So, this is a long way of saying we don't really know where the impact nets out at the end of the day.
2:36:32
And even the farmers I've spoken to, they kind of say the same thing.
2:36:35
Paul, Paul, I don't know if this is good or bad.
2:36:36
Like I can't it's hard to run the numbers, right?
2:36:39
This is a multivaried equation.
2:36:40
And who and it's changing, right?
2:36:42
It's like it's on, it's off. It's right.
2:36:45
Um so I haven't heard a consistent position on this from anybody.
2:36:50
And I think it's one of these things where we nobody knows what their position should be until they understand the impacts.
2:36:56
And the impacts are like very hard to calculate right now. Yeah. Yeah.
2:37:01
It's interesting to think about seasonality in the context of the tariffs, too.
2:37:04
If you're producing or you're maybe offseason and the tariff hits, it's like, well, I don't really know what that's going to do to demand until I actually pick the crop and go to sell it or or, you know, can you give us a little bit of a farming for dummies, farming 101 on what a tractor actually is used for on a farm and then take me through uh the auto tractor and what that product means for your business.
2:37:30
Yeah, I mean growing food is setting up the land.
2:37:33
So you'll run there's a this term is generally called tillillage where they'll run large blades through the ground and they're trying to tear it up, turn over that soil, loosen things up, allow access to the nutrients and the micro microbiomes in that soil, get it ready for planting.
2:37:50
Then you put your seeds in the ground.
2:37:52
Um, so you've done tillillage and then you've done planting and a tractor is pulling the tillage bar through the field and then it's pulling the planter and then you spend your time doing fertilization, irrigation and keeping weeds at bay.
2:38:06
And so there's a couple different ways to do irrigation, but some of them involve laying pipes in the field and there's a tractor for that.
2:38:15
Um, and then when you're doing weed control, you're running, you may be renting running cultivators through the field that I mentioned before or a spray rig if you're using a lot of herbicides or laser weeder and you're using tractor to to pull through for that.
2:38:28
And then when usually when you're running harvest, you may have a harvest machine that you're pulling tractor through or some of those are are self-driving as well.
2:38:38
But there's a bunch of activities and the tractor is kind of the main engine for all of these.
2:38:43
The tractor is the thing that provides you locomotion and from that locomotion you get power.
2:38:50
So for example tractor has a thing called a PTO stands for power takeoff and it's just a spinning shaft with a gear on it.
2:38:56
Um and you can plug into that and then you get power.
2:38:59
So we use that for a generator for example.
2:39:01
We get we get three-phase 240 volt power off the PTO spinning a generator.
2:39:05
So the tractor is kind of the main it's the main engine.
2:39:09
It's the starting point for everything moving on the farm.
2:39:12
And like pulling weeds, we found that one of the major challenges with getting enough done was finding tractor drivers.
2:39:22
How do you get enough people to drive the tractor?
2:39:26
Tractor driving is fun and it's interesting and kind of cool, right?
2:39:30
But try doing it for 24 hours a day.
2:39:32
You know, like it it when it's time to farm, it's time to farm.
2:39:37
And and for tools like laser weeder, in order to help that ROI really pay for itself, like you want to run 247.
2:39:44
So, who are you going to get to do the midnight to 8 a. m. shift, right?
2:39:50
Like these things are really hard.
2:39:51
Um, so we we we started working on tractor autonomy and we had we had the original laser was actually autonomous, the very first one that we built many many years ago.
2:40:03
And so um, we rev revitalized the autonomy stack. But here's the thing.
2:40:08
Here's the key that I feel like just I like people didn't realize or whatever.
2:40:12
When we were thinking about this, the big reason why tractor autonomy hasn't taken off in the world, farming tractor autonomy is because um of all the exception cases, right?
2:40:25
So, if I'm going to put my tractor out in the field at midnight, my autonomous tractor at midnight, I want I want to come back at 8 a. m. and see it did its job.
2:40:32
What everybody discovered from the we call them like the existing autonomy solutions was that in reality, what happens is you put that tractor out at midnight, you five because it saw a pig in the middle of a field or a deer or whatever.
2:40:47
Like these things happen and so they couldn't reliably get any of the autonomy solutions to do the job.
2:40:53
And so what we figured was well what if we could remotely log in and handle the exception cases.
2:41:01
And the problem was, you know, we investigated control methods and video feed methods.
2:41:08
What if we put up big radio towers so we could broadcast because these are rural areas, right?
2:41:13
You don't have good you certainly don't have 5 gig and maybe you don't have LTE.
2:41:16
Maybe you have no way to talk to the to the to the machines at all.
2:41:19
But we wanted to do remote observation command and control for the exception cases.
2:41:24
So the thing that came up that really changed the game for us was the uh satellite based internet solutions like Starlink, right?
2:41:35
I think that is going to be the biggest gamecher for agriculture um you know other than laser weer that might be one of the biggest game changers for agriculture and I think that um not a lot of people realize it yet. That's very cool. That's very cool.
2:41:50
Uh what have uh the tech the tech bros uh messed up with farming?
2:41:54
I'm I'm thinking of like you know highprofile failures like Bowery which was unfort unfortunate.
2:42:00
Was that vertical farming?
2:42:02
that was vertical farming that you know was a cool attempt at you know kind of futurizing farming and then another one is like we've we've looked into like Larry Ellison's project in Hawaii that you know seemingly like the probably lost more money than any farm in history just just on a cash in cash out
2:42:22
standpoint um and uh is the sol you know clearly your solution is much more like hey let's lean into how farming's already done today and and make it more efficient, make it better versus just reinvent like is the idea that we just need to completely reinvent farming wrong. I think you got it. Yeah, I think I think you got it.
2:42:39
Yeah, I think that that's wrong.
2:42:41
I think that um and Bowie wasn't the only high-profile vertical farming failures.
2:42:46
There were a couple of them.
2:42:48
We're talking about tens of billions of dollars at this point.
2:42:49
Um okay, so the here's the here's the fact.
2:42:55
um if I take food grown food um vegetables and I throw it on the ground it will make more food. Okay.
2:43:04
Um so this is how things happen.
2:43:07
So then if you say right so the whole conceit about vertical farming was I can put these things in these urban environments and I can grow them near to where people are going to eat them or whatever.
2:43:16
But the economics just don't pan. It just doesn't pan out.
2:43:18
Um, and farmers have experience and knowledge and and specialized understanding of soil health and how things grow.
2:43:26
And there's a lot of nature involved in food growing, growing well and growing efficiency.
2:43:33
And so this is an example of where you try to take everything apart and then closely manage all the inputs and keep, you know, and keep track of everything required to make that thing grow optimally.
2:43:46
you wind up doing a worse job than if you just need leaning to the natural environment about the ways that things evolved to happen this way on this planet.
2:43:55
And so that's so what you said was absolutely right.
2:43:59
We're going to reinvent farming as the tech bro, you know, tech bros of of the urban environments, right?
2:44:04
That we're going to, you know, it just it doesn't happen.
2:44:07
And so we we went out and said, "How do we help farmers with their job they're trying to do instead of how do we like reinvent what they think, you know, what we think they should be doing?"
2:44:18
And I think that Yeah, it it feels like one of those things like, you know, tech bros now, uh, trying to reinvent private equity with rollups, right?
2:44:27
You know, private equity, super efficient industry, you know, trying to reinvent farming.
2:44:30
We've been doing it for a very long time. Yeah. Yeah.
2:44:33
There's this misnomer that, oh, farmers don't know what they're It's like no, they take their business really seriously. It's a hard business.
2:44:37
It's super competitive, super smart people in there. It's not some Yeah. Yeah.
2:44:40
Like the country bumpkin thesis is like wildly incorrect.
2:44:45
I have a I have a portfolio company that that sells into the a world and um I've been amazed at the ingenuity at the farm level where they're just it's like, "Oh, this product doesn't exist.
2:44:58
I'm going to make it myself and I'm gonna I I have a followup on that.
2:45:01
I mean, you raised money for bond capital, uh, storied, uh, capital allocator, Mary Mer, known for investing in consumer technology during the dot boom.
2:45:11
Um, what what do you think, uh, venture capitalists get wrong about a company like yours where you are a tech company, but you're a couple steps away from, oh, it's a website, it's a SAS product, it's you're you're a robotics company, and you're selling into an industry that they might not be familiar with.
2:45:28
What's that process been like? Yeah. I mean, yeah.
2:45:30
So, Bond Capital, um, Mary Mer and Mood Reagani, I mean, really quality people.
2:45:35
Um, so we, the challenge for us is that it part of it is that that we're selling into a market that they're not familiar with.
2:45:47
The other challenge is of course that it's hardware, right?
2:45:49
Like hardware requires capital. It requires inventory.
2:45:53
Some of the R&D is money you're spending on parts to try stuff that you're just ultimately going to throw away.
2:45:57
It's a little bit different, right?
2:45:59
Um but um I really lean on this idea about where is AI useful for you in society and in the world, right?
2:46:09
Chat GBT is cool and rad. Cursor is cool and rad. Right on.
2:46:12
But how am I how are you going to make your life better?
2:46:15
How can you make yourself more healthy?
2:46:17
How do we prevent people from having the kind of food intolerances, you know, that you were mentioning, right?
2:46:22
What are we trying to do really with this technology?
2:46:24
And if we can make we can actually make the world a better place, not in the Silicon Valley, you know, show Silicon Valley show style, but we can actually do some real things.
2:46:34
Um, plus farming is a big enough TAM that you can make a good business out of this.
2:46:41
I think, you know, carbon robotics will get to the point where we're going to have a really nice IPO.
2:46:46
And so that's kind of you can plot a course to get there, but you have to be able to tell this story.
2:46:51
And I think that um maybe we had a little bit of advantage because we're kind of half we're like half tech half agriculture and so we knew how to talk in both worlds.
2:47:02
Um and when we're talking to the folks in Silicon Valley and Bond and all those folks you know we're definitely leaning on some of our Silicon Valley tech bro roots but but to to know how to tell the story I will say.
2:47:13
But you know what's interesting about our company this is controversial sort of um look at our look at our investors.
2:47:20
Um, it's, you know, it's it's Bond and Soo and Ignition and and Fuse and like Voyager and Anthos.
2:47:29
But who who who's not on our who hasn't invested in us?
2:47:31
Who's not on our cap table? Egg tech VCs.
2:47:34
We have no eggte investment. Interesting. So what so why is that?
2:47:39
I think part of it is that you had to sort of step out of what you knew about agriculture to get what we were doing.
2:47:46
And we, you know, a lot of people like a lot of people who knew who were experts really like love to tell us how stupid we are to try to do lasers. Like what a dumb idea. Why would you do that? That's just stupid.
2:47:58
You just put chemicals all over the place.
2:48:01
What are you trying to do? Like literally.
2:48:03
So it it took it took the people who were used to doing bold, innovative, new things and turning industries upside down to see what we were doing.
2:48:11
Um, would you guys would you guys ever do consumer hardware?
2:48:13
I got uh my landscaper told me yesterday, "Hey, we need to add another day of the week just for weeding."
2:48:21
And I was just like honestly very annoyed.
2:48:23
I was like, "This isn't part of landscaping weeding."
2:48:25
But having a little robot in my backyard that's just sniping weeds as they come up, you know?
2:48:32
Sounds sounds like I would definitely I'd definitely pay um you know I'd probably pay just as much for a robot to do it as as a human just because I'd rather have a robot in my backyard all the time than we you know I think we have a ways to go to get there.
2:48:47
I mean like the point at which you'd see you know laser weeders like Home Depot.
2:48:51
I think we have a ways to go.
2:48:51
And look I'm a be I'm like I'm a B2B kind of guy right?
2:48:55
Like consumer is is not really where I where I've been successful in my career.
2:49:00
career. Um I was at Uber for quite some time but I was working on the infrastructure right um so I feel like and you know and the deep learning all that stuff so I feel like um I would love to get there at some point but we're going to get there based on our trajectory and and you know where we get and success on the on the industry side
2:49:20
in terms of going deeper in farms uh you know we've seen with and they build a lot of hardware but then they're also working on a software platform called Lattis to kind of allow the autonomous system to team with each Is there an existing farm management platform that you want to integrate with or is that something you could see growing out of your technology? Yeah,
2:49:38
Yeah, this is a good question and it's actually somewhat controversial right now.
2:49:43
Um, so we have a thing called the carbon operations center and the carbon operations center shows you everything that laser weer is doing and everything laser weeders saw.
2:49:50
How many weeds, what type, how big they are, how many crops we saw, how big they are, what the spacing looks like, you know, all of this kind of stuff.
2:49:57
Um, John Deere has their John Deere command center which you can log into and see your truck door.
2:50:02
Every time I have this question for folks about what do you want us to integrate with? Nobody has a favorite.
2:50:08
Nobody nobody there's been no clear leader in this space.
2:50:10
But the reason why it's controversial is because maybe this is kind of a theme here based on some of the other stuff we were talking about.
2:50:19
There have been a number of companies, startup companies out of Silicon Valley who were who basically said, "This is great.
2:50:26
I have my brand new computer science degree from Stanford and now I'm gonna go teach farmers how to farm right with my data platform and they all fail just over and over and eating it just not making it happen because it turns out that you can go collect data and show things but unless you actually can make it actionable there's no there's no insight there.
2:50:48
It's just telling people what's happening in their fields.
2:50:50
And so having that be your business model, your primary business model, I think is a failure and it's been a failure.
2:50:58
So maybe, you know, something like the carbon operations center or maybe even the John Deere command center where you you're kind of there to to help show what's happening on some existing machines and then you can pull more in after that.
2:51:12
Maybe that's the solution there.
2:51:14
But I there's not been a great platform for that and I would love to see there be one.
2:51:19
It's but it's different also.
2:51:21
It's going to be it's going to be mo it's going to definitely be mobile first because these farmers they're in their fields all the time.
2:51:28
And so that means phone, right? It doesn't mean desktop.
2:51:30
Um and and and you know and those kinds of things are um there a lot of it's specific to what farmers are trying to do.
2:51:38
Phone and Starlink two major drivers of this change. Yeah, it's totally true. It's completely true. Yeah. Having access to Yeah. Go ahead.
2:51:47
I was going to say last question because I know we're at we're at time, but uh after all the time you've spent in in agriculture, uh what keeps you up at night?
2:51:56
Because I feel like for Americans, we take food security for granted.
2:52:00
We just sort of accept it that you're going to go to the grocery store and maybe the price is up or down for eggs one day, but you know, there's generally going to be eggs. What What scares you?
2:52:13
Um, I'm worried about us in the United States and many of these even many of the economies in Western Europe being able to continue to be self- sustaining and that means agriculture that means manufacturing ability to make things and grow things that that keep your keep your country moving along in a world we cannot compete globally dollar for dollar for labor prices. Mhm.
2:52:40
We we can't and and and without, you know, drastic reduction in our in our standard of living, right?
2:52:48
That's like that's never going to happen.
2:52:49
So, if you watch all of our manufacturing leave, all of our agriculture leave, we're in a very very vulnerable spot.
2:52:56
And this to me is a should be a national emergency, right?
2:53:02
The slope is the slope is already clear.
2:53:05
The the most delterious effects haven't happened yet, and by the time they do, it's going to be too late.
2:53:10
it's going to be too late. So we need more AI automation or just say automation in this country to be able to help us sustain those very important things for our country growing food building products right making things that we use um you know this is like
2:53:28
whatever you think about Elon Musk this is a good quote he's like if nobody's making things you won't have any things right and right so it's weary right so that's what I'm worried about it that makes a ton of sense uh Well, this was a great conversation. Thanks so much. I Thanks so much.
2:53:41
I really enjoyed it there.
2:53:43
I'm really excited about what you're doing, too. Uh, thank you very much. Appreciate it. Huge, huge impact.
2:53:47
So, uh, keep up the great work.
2:53:49
I mean, it's already been a massive success, but I'm sure you have a a long future ahead of you.
2:53:53
And you're officially our agricultural correspondent.
2:53:57
Yeah, we'd love to have you back and talk to the next agriculture as it happens.
2:54:00
Let's do the next one in a farm.
2:54:01
We can go get you guys out of the studio, right?
2:54:03
Get some boots boots on you.
2:54:05
You can go to We can go see some laser weeders. All right.
2:54:09
Yeah, my f my first job was uh my uh my mom would give me a nickel for every weed of a certain, you know, stature that I would get out of the yard.
2:54:19
So, I feel like uh I'm glad I'm happy you're doing this, but I'm built for it.
2:54:24
You know, I'm sure you can tell the farmers exactly how to do it.
2:54:26
Yeah, we'll give them some great advice.
2:54:29
We'll tell them what's really going on.
2:54:30
Here's what you got to do. Yeah, don't worry.
2:54:32
We'll we'll solve all this crisis.
2:54:33
Anyway, thanks so much, Paul. Cheers.
2:54:35
Have a great Have a great weekend. We'll talk to you soon. Yeah, you as well. Thanks. Bye. Bye.
2:54:40
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2:55:01
one time like they're the the guest is not going to have checked out of the Zoom and they're just gonna hear us do this deranged ad read and they're gonna be like why are they singing?
2:55:11
Uh I don't have full context on the show.
2:55:13
You got to be singing more. Pretty good.
2:55:14
We should uh well should we sing this Techrunch article fintech founder charged with fraud after AI shopping app found to be powered by this was uh relevant to the conversation yesterday.
2:55:26
We were talking about how figure AI is claiming to uh end to end robotics system end to end AI closed system. Yes.
2:55:35
No C++ in that has not been fully achieved by any other company. Yes.
2:55:41
In their category which makes it um very impressive if they're if they're doing it.
2:55:48
a potentially massive breakthrough, but also a potential uh risk vector if they're sort of promising investors that they've achieved this, which they already have. Yeah.
2:55:58
And this is going to be an ongoing theme, I think, with AI companies is uh the claims around the level of automation.
2:56:04
We saw this with this Techrunch article, uh the CEO of Nate, an AI shopping app that promised a universal checkout experience, which makes a lot of sense.
2:56:12
You go to the AI app, hey, buy me a bottle of Don Peron. It goes and finds it. buys for you.
2:56:17
Uh should be automatable with uh agents and operator and all the all the amazing LLM magic that has been in the boom.
2:56:24
Nate was founded in 2018.
2:56:26
They raised over $50 million from investors like CO2 and 4Erunner.
2:56:30
Uh they raised a $38 million series A in 2021 slightly before the AI boom, but they were still pitching this idea of like you can buy from any e-commerce site with a single click thanks to AI.
2:56:41
But uh in reality, Nate relied heavily on hundreds of human contractors in a call center in the Philippines to manually complete those purchases.
2:56:48
Now, no problem with that if you're upfront about it. Yeah. With your investors.
2:56:54
You don't even have to be that upfront about it with the customer.
2:56:57
I think I think you I don't think the customer cares that much.
2:56:59
The customer doesn't care.
2:57:00
I just want the output, which is oneclick checkout on any e-commerce site.
2:57:04
That's what I'm being promised.
2:57:05
I don't really care how you do it. You could be using LLMs.
2:57:06
You could be using deep learning.
2:57:08
You could be using some special algorithm by hand. Who cares? I remember this company.
2:57:12
Yes, I remember their billboard specifically and there was a lot of hype around it. I didn't fully get it.
2:57:19
But I also think anytime these shopping apps launch, they tend to just launch these massive incentives.
2:57:26
So they can really run up users where they're basically giving a money money away for user acquisition and that creates very high burn and that makes it harder to spend that money on R&D to actually solve the AI problem that requires all the training.
2:57:37
And there's no problem with with hiring a bunch of folks in the Philippines or anywhere to do a bunch of jobs, get a bunch of training data, and then create the final algorithms.
2:57:45
This is the story of scale AI and OpenAI.
2:57:46
You know, they get a bunch of contractors, they answer a bunch of questions, they bake that all into the training data, and you get a magical experience at the end of the chain, but you got to actually deliver that magical experience, especially if that's what you're promising to investors.
2:58:00
And so, uh, this, uh, now the DOJ's Southern District of New York is alleging that, uh, Nate relied heavily on hundreds of human contractors.
2:58:08
Um, and they made they found it was effectively 0% was actually happening via AI.
2:58:14
And the reason that this should have been a red flag is the claim what Nate was doing was basically computer use. Yep.
2:58:20
Or open AI operator very similar or stuff that browser base is doing, helping companies achieve now. Totally.
2:58:28
which even now still requires a human in the loop.
2:58:30
It's not really reliable.
2:58:32
When you watch OpenAI operator do this, which is one of the best agent teams in the world, it's still like watching, you know, your grandma use a computer. It's sort of slow.
2:58:43
It gets hung up in places. Yep. It will get better.
2:58:46
But Nate was promising all this in 2021, which Yep.
2:58:48
I imagine that if there were AI founders at the time, people that were thinking about this agentic experiences, I imagine they would have looked at this and said like, uh, like it's a cool idea and we're going to get there.
2:59:02
Um, but, uh, yeah, but and so, uh, the company ran out of money, sold the assets, ne leaving its investors with near total losses, and that is the basis for the lawsuit.
2:59:11
uh the investors probably wouldn't care about the involvement of humans if it was delivering shareholder value and the business was growing really nicely.
2:59:19
Uh Amazon went through something similar with their one the bigger issue not in the loop check out if Nate had been saying that they were using humans for everything totally and they were going to over time use it for less and less and less.
2:59:36
It's a little bit less sexy of a story but I think it can still totally work totally viable.
2:59:40
There's probably a good chance they wouldn't have raised the last round without that AI narrative, the issue. Totally.
2:59:47
So, if the investors feel duped, they're going to sue and it's going to get ugly.
2:59:51
But, uh, good luck to everyone involved.
2:59:53
Hopefully, it resolves smoothly and everyone can move on and build something cool in the future.
2:59:57
Uh, anyway, speaking of AI, Brad Gersonner has a great thesis, I think, on um, yeah, we talked about this yesterday.
3:00:05
Basically, everybody said LLMs have no modes, there's no switching costs.
3:00:09
uh introducing memory effectively large context windows cost. Yes.
3:00:13
And so around all the yep sort of inputs and conversations that you have with the model.
3:00:20
So openai launched infinite memory the switching cost switching costs up. Yeah.
3:00:24
Switching costs far too low in the foundation model space but not anymore thanks to infinite memory launched by uh OpenAI earlier this week.
3:00:34
And somebody was pushing back and saying that you could just export your data from chat GPT.
3:00:38
No one's going to do that.
3:00:39
But um no, you can export your you can you can Yeah, you can export your stuff from people were saying this about uh Google circles.
3:00:48
Wasn't that the competitor to Facebook that they launched?
3:00:51
Oh, well, you can just export your you know your all your data, import all your posts there.
3:00:54
No one wound up doing it.
3:00:56
Uh if you get in the flow of just uh training chat GBT again and again and again, it knows what you like.
3:01:01
It knows how you like to like data to be formatted.
3:01:03
It knows about what you know, what you don't know, what you've asked previously.
3:01:06
it has all that extra context.
3:01:08
Uh it's going to be harder and harder to go back and forth.
3:01:10
And I think people really have been going back and forth for oh there's a new cloud model.
3:01:15
It's hot on Twitter or on X.
3:01:15
Let's go jump over there for a little bit.
3:01:17
Let's jump back to the latest and greatest.
3:01:19
Uh kind of the the model wars will maybe be winding down as the switching costs increase. So interesting story.
3:01:25
This is also interesting.
3:01:28
Base 16Z says uh he's pulling something out from Netflix uh earnings report or some type of report they did in they said engagement remains a key catalyst for Netflix's growth.
3:01:41
During its last earnings call Netflix revealed that subscribers spend an average of two hours daily on the platform. How is that possible?
3:01:47
I don't know how this is possible, but um that that's a good answer for why we put out three three hours plus hours a day of content because every if if all those people that were, you know, uh basically doom watching Netflix, cancel your Netflix subscription, leave us five stars on Apple Podcast and Spotify.
3:02:09
Uh but that is that is a lot of Netflix.
3:02:11
But yeah, I mean I guess if it's replaced your TV, you have it on the background.
3:02:14
A lot of what Netflix does best is this uh like laundry TV.
3:02:16
Have you heard this term?
3:02:19
The idea that like put it on while you're doing laundry.
3:02:22
It's meant to be a lot of the reality TV shows, they kind of recap what happens at every like 15inute interval.
3:02:26
And so you can kind of tune out, tune in.
3:02:28
It's not it's not all content that's like uh Game of Thrones super layered.
3:02:32
You got to be following along.
3:02:34
You got to be reading the the fan theories.
3:02:35
A lot of it's just yeah, you throw it on.
3:02:37
It's it's uh it's reality TV and you just kind of let it sit there in the background.
3:02:41
Um, anyway, uh, this was a cool story from Steven Zang.
3:02:44
He, uh, built the app that someone was talking about.
3:02:48
Uh, Preston went viral with a post saying, "I want a finance app with three numbers.
3:02:52
What I spent today, what I spent this week, and what I spent this month."
3:02:56
And, uh, and Preston's post went super viral. Yep.
3:02:59
And Stephen built the app.
3:03:01
And, uh, he shows a little time lapse of him vibe coding it probably on his And he blurred out Was he worried about blurred out his feet?
3:03:07
Yes, he's worried about people.
3:03:09
He blurred out his feet in the video, which is hilarious because you could have just put on shoes or something.
3:03:14
But maybe he realized after the fact, he might have realized after the fact that he didn't want to wind up on Never put your feet on the internet.
3:03:20
Never put your feet on the internet.
3:03:21
I like this post from Joe, uh, friend of the show.
3:03:23
Sort of a longlost put this in.
3:03:26
Uh, I just threw this in because uh, if you're in New York, you should go check this out.
3:03:30
Um there is a store across from the UN in Manhattan that's called the UN of beers.
3:03:37
UN of beers, which is just an amazing, you know, example of you can just name your store or your business whatever you want.
3:03:46
We saw the advanced manufacturing company of America. Cool name.
3:03:48
Uh there's Bank of America.
3:03:51
I don't know if you've ever heard of that. That's a cool name.
3:03:54
Imagine coming up with that name, you know. Yeah.
3:03:56
You're like looking around.
3:03:58
They weren't looking for domains at the time. Beer of America. Beer of America.
3:04:02
Uh the United Nations of America.
3:04:04
But the UN of Beers is a fantastic name. It's great.
3:04:06
Well, after you go testify in front of the UN, you might need a beer.
3:04:10
And so you head across the street to the UN of beers.
3:04:11
Uh this uh post from Pavle I enjoyed.
3:04:13
He said, quote, "Maybe if I hire someone really good at math, my product will get better.
3:04:19
Why did this become the default Silicon Valley narrative?" LOL.
3:04:21
And Pavle, I think you know why it became a meme.
3:04:27
Uh there's been someone who's been recruiting IIO IIOI gold medalists into tech companies for years and his name is Eric Lyman. Yes.
3:04:34
And uh you once worked at that firm.
3:04:37
So this should not be a surprise.
3:04:39
Everyone is cargo cultting ramp.
3:04:41
Um no it's just a I think I think he's more basically more saying uh I think that if you blend people that are really good across different domains they're probably going to get get a great output.
3:04:52
Dwan says, "People just farm PhD hires thinking 27 year olds that haven't written a single line of production code in their lives can change the trajectory of their company." Yeah.
3:05:01
Um but uh takes more than that.
3:05:04
Mathletes are low-key goat. So lowkey goat.
3:05:07
Um I wanted to cover one final poly market before we sign off for the weekend and that is the 2025 Masters winner.
3:05:15
Uh, right now they got Scotty at 25%, Rory at 21%.
3:05:23
Bryson at 20% and then it kind of drops off pretty hard from there.
3:05:26
That's pretty even balance.
3:05:27
It's kind of anyone's game. Anyone's game. Mhm.
3:05:28
Um, like good luck to everyone watching the Masters.
3:05:33
TJ was posting something earlier that that the Masters was the closest American like institution or event that feels like Japanese culture.
3:05:42
It's like just very like calm and pleasant and people are welldressed and there was a guy basically wearing a full blazer playing in a blazer. That's cool.
3:05:52
Uh I don't know if I actually played but I saw him warming up in it.
3:05:54
Yeah, it's one of those thing it's one of those sports that you don't need to take the athletic attire to the absolute extreme and so you can express yourself a little bit more. It's cool.
3:06:02
And um and then the other one we got UFC 314 this weekend going down in Miami and uh we uh who's playing uh there's this team based there's two teams. Yeah, this is great.
3:06:16
This is the New York Sluggers versus This is relevant relevant for me because um uh Chandler is uh fighting this weekend and he is a Rurora athlete fantastic been posting about his his water consumption this week. So root for Chandler. We want to see the win.
3:06:34
Uh we want to see um you know his continued success. So that's a good place. Signature move.
3:06:40
Does he do like a karate chop?
3:06:41
Is that is that what it is? Karate chop.
3:06:43
Because you can do anything in in in UFC, right?
3:06:44
This is the This is John's best bet is that he has just no idea how how UFC works. Good luck, Chandler.
3:06:52
I hope you make it all 25. 25 rounds. Yeah, all 25 rounds. All 25 rounds. I hope he makes it.
3:06:56
And uh yeah, good luck to you. Godspeed.
3:06:59
Uh, have a great weekend everybody.
3:07:01
It was a crazy week in the markets.
3:07:02
Um, but we made it through.
3:07:04
I think uh, everybody made it through. One last size gong. We ended up up 5% folks.
3:07:07
down 12% if you count last week, but uh still up 5% this week, and that's what we're celebrating