SpaceX IPO Gigastream

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[music] I see multiple [music] journalists on the horizon founder. >> You're watching TVN.

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Today's Friday, June 12th, 2026.

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[applause] We are live from the TVP Ultra on the temple of technology, the forces of finance, the capital of capital.

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Let's tell you about ramp. com. Time is money. Save both.

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These are used corporate cards, bill pay, accounting, and a whole lot more all in one place.

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It's a massive day today.

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SpaceX IPO priced at $135 a share. Opened at 150. Where is it right now? Jordy, are you on it? Do you have the price?

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Oh, the price is up there.

5:06

Okay, now we're getting the endless mirror.

5:08

uh you can call the price, but we'll be tracking throughout the show, so stay tuned. It's a $2.

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28 trillion company $172 a share.

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Uh I had Tyler and Jordy uh submit uh confidential estimates for how where the stock would be at noon effectively.

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Jordy went with a market capbased estimate.

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Tyler went with a share price estimate.

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I think >> was what I was told.

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I went with a percentage-based estimate.

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You can translate between all of them.

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We'll get there, but uh the stock's doing well.

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The IPO is successful, I would say.

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Uh there's been a bunch of chatter back and forth. Bull cases, bare cases.

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Um but overall, it's hard not to look at this as a success.

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The, you know, Bill Gurley doesn't want a crazy pop on day one.

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Doesn't want it to go up 100%.

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if we're in 10 20 30% range for something this big that just feels like everything came together properly and so so far looks really really good. Um >> healthy.

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>> So at noon we will check in with our predictions and see who won.

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Uh there is an exciting prize for the winner by the way.

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It's it will be revealed at noon as well.

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Uh there's been a ton of coverage.

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Uh we can uh uh we can pull up this video from Gwen Shotwell, who is the president of SpaceX and has been on an absolute tear building the company for basically its entire existence.

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[laughter] What What are you laughing at?

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>> I didn't know what your prediction was.

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>> Did you see what it is?

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>> Yeah, Nick just shared it.

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[laughter] >> What's this guy over here?

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This is a funny guy over here. >> Funny guy over here. This is why you trade.

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I was trying to pull >> this is why you trade bits not stocks.

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>> I was trying to pull an estimate out of you and you were like asking me 25 clarifying questions.

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So the purpose is content to have a conversation.

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Just pick a number and you're like oh well does it count where it opens or what where it opens after like >> I just thought your positioning was confus I just saw your just throw out a number.

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We got to have a discussion about this.

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There's nothing >> share. >> Sure.

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Everything's on the line, John. Everything is on.

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>> I was laughing about how you wouldn't take a side on the on the dog walker versus the dentist.

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I I was like, dog walker, dentist, blind, who you going?

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And you were like, I I can't possibly I couldn't possibly.

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In the name of good television, just pick a random side for the >> dog walker or dentist. >> Yeah. >> Beach debate. >> The beach debate.

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We never We never got your answer.

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And you were like, I need more information.

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I can't possibly make a call.

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This is it's such a tough one cuz I don't tough randomly. It's tough for me.

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Here's why it's tough for me, John. >> Okay, explain.

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>> Uh I have never in my life hired or worked with a dog walker.

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My family growing up, we had a couple dogs. We walked our dog. >> Yeah.

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>> Like we never >> You've been to the dentist. >> I was the dog walker. >> Yeah.

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You've been to You're not your own dentist, though.

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So why are you just going dentist? >> Dentist. I've never had a cavity.

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Every time I go in there, I'm I guess I'm blessed. >> Okay.

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Every time I go in there, they're like, "Looks good, boss." Okay.

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>> And and I just head out. >> So equally useless.

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>> Equally useless profession. >> So flip the coin. It's TV.

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Useless [laughter] profession.

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>> No, I just don't have any connected.

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I need I need >> What about the econom Why don't you fall back to like the economic power of the dentist industry versus the dog walking industry?

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Like if you had to pick a job, if you were trying to get a bag, >> I respect dog.

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There's >> Oh, you would go dog walker.

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Oh, you would be an elite dog walker over a mid dentist. >> Here's here's two.

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Here's like here's kind of my thinking.

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>> There's a guy in my neighborhood >> who is walking dogs in my neighborhood all day long. I'm like, >> who?

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>> Like a lot of people in my neighborhood don't work.

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They're just home all day.

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Like why aren't you walking your dog?

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But >> I think it's amazing that this guy is just like >> he's printing >> clearly printing all day long.

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Just going for walks, hanging out.

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He's listening to music, hanging out. Super nice guy.

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>> He picks up the the >> Sounds like you're going dog walking.

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picks up the poop when he when they poop on my lawn. I appreciate it.

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We have a, you know, I maybe wish he wouldn't do that, but >> we have a fine relationship.

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Um, but then dentists, >> um, I could get really excited about a dentist if they were >> You're still torn.

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You're still you're still not private equity backed rollup. >> Okay. Okay. Well, that's an option.

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dentist was kind of a figurehead for uh uh for for some PE firm to be able to deploy huge amounts of capital into rolling up family practices and raising prices.

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>> Well, what if what if you're a dog walker, you you earn so much money, you start being able to buy small dentist shops, rolling them up, you flip from dog walking into dentistry.

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>> Well, that would be the way I don't we don't know much about this story. Yeah.

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>> But we do know there's a conflict. >> Yeah.

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But that would be the way for the dog walker to strike back is by the dentist side.

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>> So final final answer >> come.

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>> What what side are you picking?

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>> If the dog walker will commit to >> No conditionals.

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You just [laughter] got to pick dog walker or dentist.

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>> Why can't I have conditions?

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>> You can't have conditions because that's the rules that I'm laying down. You got to pick one. Dog walker or dentist? Whose side are you on? >> Dog walker. >> There we go.

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Finally, we got >> But I'm going to put But I'm going I'm going to put a heavy >> The whole point is a real a serious amount of pressure. I'll just take dentist.

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I'm not going to defend that and steal man.

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>> I'm going to put a serious amount of pressure on the dog walker >> and I will provide the financial backing to acquire the dentist practice and shut it down. >> Okay.

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[laughter] >> As because I know they have I know they have some conflict >> and uh it sounds like it's over the beach.

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It's really not that personal. >> Yeah.

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and accessl they got to figure out how to make it personal and I think buying the dentist practice >> uh and then shutting it down >> or [laughter] has a high high >> no he can raise he can raise an SPV he can put the capital together and I I would be willing to you know I need to meet the guy first but uh I'm at least moderately interested in providing at least some of the backing >> for the >> I got you.

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Well, let me tell you about Crowdstrike. Your business is AI.

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Their business is securing it.

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Crowd Strike secures AI and [applause] stops breaches.

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>> Uh let's play this clip from Gwen Shotwell.

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Uh standing at the NASDAQ on the day of the space.

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I think we might be able to play it on the big board.

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Uh stock is doing well, holding steady at 27 trillion split screen.

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Whatever production team wants to do, we will we will do as long as the folks at home can see Gwen Shotwell giving her speech to >> I got to say Tyler is looking like a youngbody.

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I am so excited to be here.

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>> Today we make history again.

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>> We have a history of making history.

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>> So I want everyone to know that we did open this morning in a rather exciting way.

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Falcon 9 launched Starlink satellites to orbit.

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>> We have a history [applause] of making history.

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>> So what company would do such a thing on the day that they open in the public market? SpaceX would >> right.

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[applause] >> I am so proud of this team.

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Today we're 24 not today.

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This year we are 24 years old.

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Elon founded this company in 2002 initially to build rockets and spaceships that will take humans to Mars, the moon, and even beyond.

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We've done We've not quite gotten to Mars.

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We're almost at the moon, but let's just quickly run through the amazing things that you guys have accomplished.

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2008, six weeks after a failure of Flight 3 Falcon 1, we got the first liquid fueled rocket to orbit from a private company. Yay. Yay.

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By the way, I should have prefaced this with everyone said we could never get to orbit. Check.

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But it was a little rocket.

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Then it's everyone said, "Well, you can't get a real rocket to orbit."

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Two years later, we got a real rocket to orbit. Falcon 9.

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Oh, well, you never you'll never get to the space station.

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Because that's what we really want to do, right?

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We want to take humans outside the bounds of Earth, but you'll never get astronauts to the space station. Check. We did that, too. Doubters, right?

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Oh, you'll never fly Falcon 9 enough.

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You'll never [laughter] get to production.

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Uh 165 launches last year. Check. [applause] >> Yeah.

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>> You'll never build a rocket large enough to take humans to the moon and Mars. We build one. We've flown it.

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And this year, I believe we'll get to orbit with that vehicle.

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And we'll recover the first the second stage.

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We've already recovered the first stage and refflown it.

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So, good good on you all for that, too.

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[cheering and applause] With the merger, the acquisition of XAI, we now as a group own the largest coherent gigawatt class compute on the planet, which will help us truth seek and understand the universe.

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So, congratulations to all of us for that.

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[applause] [applause] So, we're about 22,000 strong.

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I'm super proud that over half of us actually bought additional stock in this opening totaling almost a billion dollars.

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>> So, thank you for that, too.

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But really the thank yous go to all of you for hanging in there for keeping a straight spine as the doubters doubt to achieve historic things sometimes every day multiple times a week.

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Thank you all of you for doing this and I hope today is a day that you feel great about [laughter] and that you're celebrating. Take a moment.

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Now, the Falcon Recovery Team can't take a moment today.

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Um, but everybody else can and I hope Falcon Recovery Team could take a moment a little bit later. Yeah.

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And also, thank you to the families, the the partners, the plus ones, the children, the brothers, the sisters, the parents that have lived through long nights, that have seen launch failures, that have seen uh AI compute go down, um that have seen kind of the trials and tribulations of this incredibly difficult business.

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Thank you so much for hanging in there.

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I know I can't do this without my incredible partner.

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Can we get a standing o standing in all seriousness?

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>> And uh [applause] >> uh congratulations to the SpaceX team.

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It is like truly one of the most remarkable stories uh in the history of capitalism in the history of America.

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uh started in a little town called Elsagundo [snorts] and uh Glenn Shotwell, one of the >> you say >> sorry, sorry, sorry, >> Glenn >> um one of the most impressive executives of the modern era. >> Crazy.

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>> And uh we all should have known just due [laughter] to the nominative determinism. >> Yeah.

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If you're going to run a If you're going to build a rocket company, >> hire somebody to run the company with a last name shot well because she has shot >> quite well. >> Yeah.

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Uh she worked at Chrysler [laughter] uh and then uh began work in >> that's actually people like to say like oh non-traditional background >> uh somewhat >> Chrysler. >> Yeah.

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I mean >> not exactly like a target. >> Yeah.

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Well, she worked at the aerospace corporation, did technical work on military space research and development contracts.

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Uh, early project she worked on was STS39.

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During a 10-year tenure, she worked on thermal analysis, worked both in sta space systems engineering and project management positions.

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She left uh the aerospace corporation 1998 to become director of the space systems division at microcosm inc, a small rocket company in Elsagundo.

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There she was on the executive committee and responsible for business development.

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In 2002, she joined SpaceX and she reflected on that later.

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She said, "When I was considering joining SpaceX back in 2002, I was struggling with the decision and drawing it out for weeks. It's crazy.

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Leaving Elon on red for weeks seems extremely risky.

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It feels like every decision he makes now is like go no go today.

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Get back to me right now."

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Uh back then obviously SpaceX was very young.

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Uh less leverage, less less energy, less momentum.

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So uh these decisions would be drawn out.

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She said it seemed so risky for me personally to join this little startup in an industry where none had ever succeeded.

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I think she was starting a family around that time and so it was risky uh from a career perspective.

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She said at the time I was a part-time single mother. Yeah.

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Uh and this was just too far out of my comfort zone.

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She was used to bigger corporations, more established companies.

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She's going to this small startup that has, you know, it's at that time it's like a guy who made money on the internet now wants to do rocketry.

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What's the chance that that works? It sounds crazy. And it was at the time.

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Uh, she says, "I was driving on the freeway here in LA when it finally hit me.

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I was being a total idiot.

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Who cares if I tried this job and either I failed or the company failed?"

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What I recognized at that moment was that it was the trying part that was the most important. Try that risky thing.

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Be a part of something exciting.

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Uh what a what a fantastic run.

19:04

And uh she I I I'm not sure if she coined the term residual capability, but that's a big uh phrase that she started using around the time Starlink started working.

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Just this idea that they would go and build ahead of demand almost.

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So they SpaceX built basically more launch capacity than there was demand for.

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But then because there was space on every SpaceX rocket and they were able to build them so efficiently, so affordably, they were able to put up a massive constellation of internet connected satellites, Starlinks and develop another huge business on top of it.

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And so this idea of of building building building and then uh finding the different opportunities for a while uh SpaceX pointtooint was the big uh the big residual capability unlock that was coming in a few years.

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The idea that you get on a spaceship on a spaceship a starship uh in New York and you'd be in Tokyo in 30 minutes because you would have gone all the way to space and back and it would land.

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I think that's still part of the plan, but obviously took a backseat in the S1, took a backseat in the marketing materials for the company, but something that is still possible if you uh wind up delivering incredible safety and performance and cost uh cost reductions to the rocket launches.

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Why not hop on a rocket to get across the world in 30 minutes?

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Sounds pretty cool and probably oddly easier to approve than hypersonic planes since those have been stuck in uh regulatory approvals for for you know years and decades and never really worked out.

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Um the Wall Street Journal is also reflecting on Gwen Shotwell.

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She uh they say 19 things to know about uh SpaceX president. Um she's a diplomat.

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She's seen as a steady hand in gendering trust in the company from those who have been unsettled by Musk's actions.

20:56

You're worried about his politics.

20:59

you're worried about his other companies.

21:00

Well, Shotwell has you covered with a very steady hand on the tiller at a very large company with 22,000 employees as she mentioned.

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Uh she's a billionaire after the Shotwell uh after the IPO.

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Shotwell's net worth will be well north of 1 billion. She owns about 12. 6 million shares.

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Uh she translates Musk's lofty ideas.

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>> That part is a little bit crazy. >> Which one >> to me? >> Which one?

21:25

So at the current price, >> yeah, >> she is closer to being worth like two billion. >> Okay.

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>> But still, >> uh, >> to be that early and and that critical and not wind up with a 5% stake or 1% >> not even not Yeah, like something more like a 1% stake.

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>> A lot of dilution, you know, [clears throat] big big company, >> a lot of dilution, but uh, >> a lot of secondary.

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She might have been selling [laughter] >> selling with it was like, yeah, we actually started out with a with I'm really bullish. We gave her 40%.

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She's down to never been more bullish.

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>> But you did sell 95% in the latest tender.

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[laughter] >> Yeah, that is good because I mean Elon's hitting onet and she's just hitting 1B. >> Well, >> yeah.

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>> Uh [laughter] Shotwell was paid 86 million last year, mostly in the form of stock options.

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She's one of eight board members at SpaceX.

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Uh she's 62 and has worked with Musk for two decades.

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She has a specific ritual for launch days.

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Uh because she was in Scotland the first time the company successfully got a rocket into orbit.

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She now writes Scotland on two sticky notes and places each inside her shoes to be in Scotland for every launch.

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She said in a 2020 >> Scotland mindset. >> That's pretty elite.

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I like uh is uh what's that called?

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Uh where you're uh uh superstitious.

22:46

M >> superstitions rare, potentially underrated. What do you think?

22:51

Do you have any superstitions?

22:53

>> I mean, it's in the word super. >> Yeah, >> superpowers. >> Superstition. >> Superstition. That's another one.

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Anyway, >> giga >> whether you're long, whether you're short, SpaceX, express yourself on public. com.

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Investing for those who take it seriously.

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Stocks, options, bonds, crypto, treasuries, and more with great customer service.

23:11

Uh, what's your take on superstition? Do you have any? Doesn't sound like it.

23:15

Uh, I think it's I think it's quite distracting >> distracting to have a superstition. >> Yeah.

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Kind of like could it could end up being a pretty big waste of time. So, I avoid them.

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>> So, you feel like unless you go through your whole ritual of eliminating all distractions, things aren't going to go well.

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>> So, you're superstitious about letting distractions creep into your workflow. I understand that. >> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. You got your own. >> Maybe I am. Maybe I am. >> Yeah.

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[laughter] If I have a single distraction, everything will fail.

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Uh she's been a staunch defender of Mus Musk.

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She worked to prevent business fallout during all the political turmoil.

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She worked with NASA officials and assured them that tensions would pass.

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Uh she doesn't love social media uh social media.

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Uh I like his in-person self better than his Twitter self.

24:01

In fact, they feel like two different people many of the times.

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Uh she has a much different social media presence than her boss, posting sparingly exclusively about SpaceX. She's focused.

24:12

She was raised outside of Chicago.

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As a teenager, she decided she would become an engineer.

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>> Wait, you could imagine like she's reading X.

24:19

She's like crying emojis, quoting six more posts.

24:24

[laughter] Crying emojis. He's never crying. >> Yeah. Yeah.

24:31

>> At the office, he never does that.

24:31

It's like, actually, >> this feels like I feel like I don't know this guy. He's always crying. >> Yeah.

24:37

Well, when she first joined SpaceX, she was VP of business development.

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So, not in the in like a co-founder, chief executive type role on day one.

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And so, that probably explains a little bit of the equity position and how that developed over time.

24:50

Um, but she was promoted to SpaceX's president and chief operating officer in 2008, the same year the company won a critical 1.

24:57

6 billion NASA cargo transport deal.

25:02

>> So, I looked up, she was uh SpaceX's seventh employee.

25:05

>> Wow, that's pretty early.

25:05

uh she'd be disappointed if SpaceX didn't have a settlement on the moon and wasn't building a manufacturing facility on the moon within 10 years.

25:12

She should time she lives on a 1,000 acre ranch close to a SpaceX facility in Texas.

25:17

Uh she married a fellow SpaceX engineer and has two children.

25:22

Uh she put a Starlink mini terminal on top of her car to speak with Musk on her 40-minute commute without the call dropping. Interesting.

25:28

Uh Jimmy Sonnie also went back in time and told a story in the Wall Street Journal about uh the one of the early days in uh in the SpaceX journey vindication for young Elon Musk.

25:44

He wrote in 2004 he told the Senate that open competition would transform the industry.

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26:00

So, this was an interesting story.

26:02

Uh, and I and I wonder if we could find the actual video like on C-SPAN.

26:06

I don't know if it's out there, but uh, in 2004, the Senate held a subcommittee meeting, gathered on the all the subcommittee gathers on Capitol Hill to ask a question that now sounds quaint.

26:17

Could America still reach space without the space shuttle?

26:22

Of course, we do it like every couple days thanks to SpaceX.

26:24

The shuttle was grounded.

26:26

14 astronauts had died in two disasters, and the hearing room was thick with anxiety of a nation that feared it had lost a step.

26:32

Senator Bill Nelson, who had flown on the shuttle, sort of the Jared Isaacman of his era, warned that without it, the country might spend years relying on Russian rockets. Nobody disagreed.

26:47

Witnesses came in two panels.

26:47

First you got the NASA team defending the program through William Ready uh its associate administration for uh administrator for spaceflight accompanied by a retired admiral.

26:58

After NASA smoke spoke industry did they got a vice president from ATK another from Loheed Martin a director from the aerospace group.

27:06

Are you looking for a for a candle a nuke one way or another?

27:12

>> This is brutal for my prediction.

27:14

>> This is brutal for I'm feeling pretty good >> settling in.

27:16

But it's also brutal for anyone that wants drama on the chart because you're not getting it today. It's very stable.

27:21

I think this is a very well-managed uh project from start to finish.

27:26

>> And then now it's just like a trillion dollar company.

27:28

So it's hard for it to move super >> I don't know.

27:33

I I I I just think that if you were expecting 10% swings up and down is pretty small though, right?

27:38

Like uh at least that they're being traded. >> Sure. Sure. >> Very very small.

27:44

Um, so the last person on the industry panel, you got Lockheed, ATK, Aerospace Corp.

27:50

It's Elon Musk >> AP in the chat. Wait for dip$5.

27:56

[laughter] >> Can you imag folks, you got a 322year-old man who had founded a rocket company two years earlier and he'd yet to launch anything. saying it was Elon Musk.

28:14

Uh he had a more immediate complaint.

28:16

NASA had just awarded arrival a quarter of a billion dollar contract without open competition >> and his company had protested.

28:22

Uh so everyone's there to debate like okay can NASA get to space without the shuttle and he's there being like what about my contract?

28:33

He shows up to this thing to testify and they keep having to try and keep him on track.

28:37

It's a very interesting uh way to like get his word in edgewise.

28:40

Oh, the senators thought the matter was off limits.

28:43

Like, this hearing isn't about that, Elon.

28:45

It's not about your contract.

28:47

Uh, it was under government review already.

28:49

And they kept having to steer him back to the day subject, specifically heavy lift, the blunt problem of getting big things off the planet.

28:58

Certainly, he said, although it's worth correcting, I think Mr.

29:00

Reddy misspoke when he said it was competitive.

29:04

It was in fact not competitive.

29:06

The chairman tried again.

29:08

Let's stay to heavy lift capacity issues.

29:09

Elon stay on message and Elon says absolutely.

29:12

But his his correction was safely on the record.

29:15

He said something the P panel wasn't ready to hear.

29:20

The past few decades Elon Musk told them had been a dark age for human space flight.

29:24

One costly government program after another failed to reach the pad.

29:28

The public's drift from space, he argued, wasn't the apathy of a tired people, but the disappointment of a hopeful one.

29:35

It sounded in 2004 like a man with a grievance and a half-built rocket. He was dismissed.

29:40

He had made the same case the summer before.

29:42

In one of his first Capitol Hill appearances at a 2003 hearing on commercial space flight.

29:50

There's a borrowed concept from the economist Joseph Shumpter. A creative destruction.

29:54

The industry had lost it.

29:56

Not one successful new entrant in four decades. Space, Mr.

29:59

Musk pointed out, had barely improved since Apollo.

30:05

While every other technology from computing and the internet to intercontinental flight had been transformed by newcomers and open competition.

30:10

Restore that forcing function, he said, and space would change no less dramatically.

30:13

The government need only be a customer, not a competitor. He could be glib.

30:18

Every launch from Vandenberg Air Force Base, he said, was required by law to be studied for its effect on the local SEALs at $10,000 a flight, even as that population had been climbing by nearly 13% in a single year.

30:32

He says, "The seals are doing fine. Let me launch."

30:36

With [snorts] the population with that population growth rate, Mr. Mr.

30:38

Musk observed, "It seems clear that if anything, the Vandenberg launch activity serves as an aphrodesiac dropping lines, dropping zingers on Capitol Hill." People laughed.

30:50

It was the laughter you gave uh a clever outsider.

30:54

But we can grade that clever outsiders argument now because more than 20 years have passed and the record is in.

31:01

The fear that haunted that 2004 hearing.

31:03

Dependence on Moscow was not ended by the shuttle, but by Mr. Musk's company.

31:07

In 2002, a SpaceX capsule carried two astronauts to the space station from American soil.

31:12

2020 uh closing a 9-year gap in which the United States paid Russia as much as $90 million a seat to hitch a ride.

31:20

The semi-reusable rocket Mr.

31:22

Musk described to skeptical senators became a fleet of boosters that land themselves and fly again.

31:29

Today, SpaceX launches more than half the world's payloads.

31:31

On Friday, it goes public in what is expected to be the largest IPO in history.

31:35

What are you laughing at, Jordi Hayes?

31:39

>> I'm laughing at the comments on this >> on this article >> post we made earlier. >> Oh, what' we say?

31:44

>> Breaking the pride of France.

31:44

Mral AI [laughter] is exploring a raise of three billion at a 20 billion euro valuation.

31:53

[laughter] >> You're getting in trouble.

31:55

You have such a bone to pick with France.

31:59

always taking shots of France.

31:59

What did France do to you? >> I love France. >> This is beautiful.

32:05

>> I genuinely I it's one of my favorite countries in the entire world. I love it.

32:10

>> But people are having fun poking fun at France.

32:12

>> But I just think >> you're Oh, you're >> I'm kind of laughing at my own >> your own joke >> bit a little bit >> because the card just says France, right? >> It says French. >> French.

32:24

>> Let's uh let's let's put it up. >> We will.

32:27

Well, the Financial Times has every possible take on uh on SpaceX today.

32:33

Uh [laughter] scroll down. How's it doing? Good times.

32:38

[laughter] Uh Stuart Kirk says SpaceX is cheap on a price to cosmos ratio.

32:46

Terrestrial valuations don't apply when it comes to Elon.

32:50

Last June, he wrote a column with the headline, "An entry-level guide to valuing stocks."

32:55

He also provided a link to a simple valuation tool that even my children's new hamster could use. What?

33:02

How can a hamster use this? Interesting.

33:04

I guess he's joking around.

33:04

It's a weird That's a weird line to throw in.

33:06

But discounted cash flow models require that cash moves in and out of a business to be net positive in order to calculate what a company is worth unless you want a negative number for some reason like in divorce court.

33:17

Uh, hence a few years after I became a portfolio manager in the mid '90s, equity analysts trying to fogg.

33:25

com stocks began using price to sales ratios.

33:28

When those look too silly, they invented price to clicks or price to eyeballs.

33:32

And you know how that ended.

33:34

No wonder investors still prefer cash flow-based valuation methodologies over anything else.

33:38

That said, there are legitimate reasons to employ other metrics, including price to sales ratios.

33:44

The latter are handy as a sense check when profits are temporarily depressed, distorted or cyclical, provided that the revenues are real and measurable.

33:51

If a price to earnings ratio appears odd, comparing price to sales ratios within an industry can be reassuring.

33:58

Moreover, plenty of firms operate at a loss and thus using earnings multiples doesn't work period.

34:05

This can go on for years due to a heavy investment in business.

34:07

Amazon was founded in 1994 and didn't make a profit until 2003.

34:11

And a lot of people are taking a victory lap today over uh Assw as Demodin, the NYU finance professor who I have a ton of respect for, but he was very skeptical about the Tesla IPO when that went out.

34:23

And everyone reasonable in the finance world was saying, well, the valuation is disconnected from the fundamentals compared to any other car company, compared to any other company. Doesn't make sense.

34:33

But of course, the the revenues did grow.

34:36

The earnings did materialize.

34:37

They did wind up making money although the the stock is still very highly valued because Elon's pitches a very large vision.

34:45

>> Elon companies can stay disconnected from the fundamentals longer than you can stay solvent.

34:52

>> And that's what Stuart Kirk is arguing in the Financial Times.

34:53

He says terrestrial valuations don't apply when it comes to Elon.

34:57

And that is something that I think a lot of people have internalized. >> Trust the plan. >> Yes. So trust the plan.

35:02

Enter SpaceX on 95 times.

35:06

uh 95 times uh revenue I believe.

35:10

Uh no, I haven't forgotten the decimal point. What are you doing here? >> You're okay.

35:14

>> Prediction is correct. Done for you. Good for you.

35:16

>> It was looking so good an hour ago. >> Too bad.

35:19

But >> let me tell you about MongoDB.

35:21

What's the only thing faster than the AI market, your business on MongoDB, don't just build AI, own the data platform that powers it.

35:28

Um I seriously couldn't believe it when I first divided the target valuation of $1.

35:34

8 trillion by the last 12 months of revenues. I laugh so hard.

35:37

The wine I was drinking shot from my nose.

35:39

This is [laughter] the most This is the most financial times article I've ever read.

35:47

[laughter] But he he's not saying he's not saying I almost I almost spit out.

35:51

But but no, that's different.

35:54

So a spit take is one thing.

35:56

You spit out your coffee. What is that?

35:58

He says he was drinking wine and it came out of his nose. That's brutal. Like that's very rare.

36:03

You got to be drunk for that to happen.

36:06

[laughter] >> That sounds like >> you have to be really drunk to have the alcohol come out of your nose and not just spit it up or throw up.

36:12

I feel like the tear of like bad things that can happen to you when you're drinking too much.

36:17

>> Laugh so hard I threw up. [laughter] >> Well, no. I don't know. Maybe drink it a lot.

36:21

I laugh so hard the wine I was drinking shot from my nose.

36:24

Then I laughed some more.

36:26

[laughter] This guy is really >> You know that he just made this up entirely because >> has anyone had liquid?

36:34

Has anyone been drinking something, started laughing and had >> Yeah, but out of the mouth is one thing.

36:44

>> Spitake is different than out of your nose.

36:45

Your nose is a new new level. New level.

36:48

Anyway, [laughter] come back to >> Yeah, mechanically I I I don't buy it.

36:53

>> I think he tried to I think he tried to really like illustrate this. >> I think so. Well, he continues.

36:56

He says, "Then I laughed some more when I thought of all those analysts who had who had to justify that their multipi that their that the that multiple in their buy recommendations to clients.

37:07

It was easy for Goldman Sachs.

37:09

However, it simply forecasted revenues to rise 25fold by 2030.

37:14

Uh it makes me wonder why they didn't push for 50fold or why not sales up to a 100 times in four years.

37:20

SpaceX could have raised double or quadruple the money.

37:24

After all, the IPO offering was at least three times overs subscribed, and on Friday, trading opened with the stock up 11%.

37:29

How might a sensible person, which excludes conflicted global bankers and meme investors who jump on anything from marijuana to the metaverse to Bitcoin and AI, value SpaceX, then?

37:39

Frankly, I haven't a clue.

37:42

This [laughter] guy's writing like the most non article.

37:44

Uh, by which I mean, I have no idea how anyone can arrive at the current valuation.

37:50

And it's not that the outlook for SpaceX's core launch and satellite communications business as well as artificial intelligence is largely theoretical at this point.

37:56

It's that it's that even insanely bullish assumptions get me nowhere near the share price.

38:02

Perhaps I'm not dreaming big enough.

38:03

Space is larger than Earthling investors such as me are used to analyzing.

38:07

Then again, I've just read the Morning Star research report from a couple weeks ago that arrived at a valuation of 780 billion, less than half of SpaceX's market cap, and it was wildly optimistic.

38:16

Morning Star wrote of predigious cost advantages in launch, reaching 18 billion in sales within a decade at 20% margins.

38:24

For even the more sensible Starlink business, tens, not necessarily hundreds of billions of dollars in annual growth.

38:30

Uh a over the coming decade are pencileled in at operating margins potentially exceeding 75%.

38:37

What a fantastic telecom business Starlink is truly.

38:40

Starlink is truly. Uh but of course when you're dealing with trillions you need to be you know the most exceptional uh in their moonshot scenario ones and zeros somehow arrive somehow survive the battering from solar radiation there are meaningful cost advantages over data

38:55

centers on Earth and SpaceX wins a fifth of the forecast market if we're AI infrastructure computing capacity in a worst case scenario it's a dud with the base case 4% of capacity the latter is given a 50% chance of happening failure has a 43% waiting and the moonshot scenario, the rump. But even that 7%

39:12

But even that 7% chance adds $93 billion to the overall valuation.

39:19

>> Whole lot of mumbo jumbo.

39:19

[laughter] >> Whole lot of mumbo jumbo. >> You're not buying it.

39:25

>> It's a collection of some great businesses. >> Yeah.

39:28

>> Some businesses that have a lot of potential.

39:30

It is uh a valuation that only one man on earth can achieve. >> Yeah.

39:36

Well, if you're trying to take your company public, you got to do it on the New York Stock Exchange.

39:40

Want to change the world?

39:42

Raise capital at the New York Stock Exchange.

39:44

Um, there's a whole bunch more post.

39:47

Elon is now officially the first trillionaire in the entire world in USD terms.

39:51

Someone said that there because of hyperinflation, there have been many trillionaires in other countries denominated in other foreign currencies.

39:59

I think Zimbabwe is among them.

40:01

potentially the German rice mark at one point minted a trillionaire potentially.

40:06

But uh >> I wanted to pull up this post from Founders Fund because >> it was so inspiring for me.

40:12

They posted this this morning and they said it is possible for ordinary people to choose to be extraordinary.

40:20

And I've always just seen Elon as such a normal ordinary guy, right?

40:25

Like he's just like an ordinary guy.

40:27

He's not he hasn't been ordinary for the last 20 years, but he was he was 30 years ago, 40 years ago.

40:33

Like he was like he was like a SAS founder with like a a decent business that sold and IPOed like he was like a good unicorn founder of today. >> Yeah.

40:44

And I don't view good unicorn founders of today as ordinary people.

40:49

Almost every time you meet them, they're >> elite on like a couple dimensions. >> Okay.

40:54

>> Okay. And so my argument is that like Elon was at no point in his life >> would you have met him >> and thought yeah just an average Joe >> ordinary guy >> just an ordinary guy I was texting I was texting our friends over at FF poking a little fun at this I said Elon Musk is a very ordinary guy this inspired me [laughter] >> so I I don't know there is a lot of ordinariness iness is

41:24

>> you know what's not ordinary >> his Diablo >> FF's investment >> of $20 million at a $200 million valuation into >> SpaceX did get diluted but it is still >> I think like the best venture investment of all time wait no I thought it was more like it's 50 I thought it was more like 80 >> 80 I think it's closer to 8 trillion cents [laughter] I think I think they made 8 trillion cents. Got it. Trillion pennies. Uh PT Got it. Trillion pennies. Uh PT needed a win.

41:57

>> What was the return in basis points? >> He needed a win.

41:58

[laughter] He He needed a win.

42:00

Uh because apparently >> What was the return in basis points?

42:04

>> Out with him on chess. com. Have you seen this? >> Oh yeah. Do we need to play this?

42:08

>> We need to play the video of uh a gentleman on Instagram who found Peter Teal's chess.

42:13

com account, played him, and won.

42:17

>> Do you have victory lap?

42:17

It's in the timeline deeper down there.

42:19

Can we uh can we pull up where is sentented? >> Here we go.

42:24

Um it is from Tuck Guestner on Instagram.

42:28

He says he found Peter Teal's chess account. Played him.

42:30

I mean, we already spoiled it >> on chess. com.

42:34

I don't know if anybody knows about this, but [music] Peter Teal has a chess.

42:38

com account with his real name under which he's played over 50,000 games over the past years.

42:44

And the reason I know it's him is first of all his friends [music] are all these Silicon Valley and ex Stanford X founders.

42:53

And I put this account into a database called Opening Tree, which allows me to cross reference his most played moves [music] with his public tournament games that he played in the '90s.

43:05

And it's all the same stuff.

43:05

So our game went E4, E5, knight F3, knight F6.

43:10

I played the Stafford Gambit.

43:10

And on move six, he fell into gambit. What are we doing?

43:16

>> Well, no, no, he didn't fall for the gambit, but he fell for C4 here. Okay.

43:20

>> And the point is that when he takes back, played bishop takes F2, winning his queen by force. >> Yeah.

43:25

See, >> so most players would just give up.

43:26

They would just resign in this position.

43:27

But [laughter] Peter Teal played on >> and a few moves later, he made another very elementary mistake. Played bishop takes A7.

43:37

And this is the kind of move that you see beginners make.

43:39

Very rarely does anybody over 2,000 not see that you can just play B6 afterwards, [music] which traps the bishop.

43:46

And I'm just going to scoop it up in a few moves.

43:51

Even here, he didn't resign.

43:51

He kept playing on until I checkmated him after.

43:57

>> I find this really funny because Peter Teal has a reputation being a sort of chess genius.

44:02

So, I wanted to take this opportunity to show the real Peter Teal who falls for basic opening traps moves, >> refuses [laughter] to resign.

44:12

>> Uh, you can see, >> uh, Elon. >> Yeah. >> Uh, neverary guy.

44:16

Proof that they're all ordinary guys.

44:20

>> Elon never gives up, right?

44:20

Famous picture of him standing there.

44:24

Everything's in shambles. Never gives up.

44:25

up. also makes elementary mistakes sometimes picking a you know accusing the president of things you know on you know social media right kind of an elementary mistake you know if you're a government contractor >> lawsuits >> that's right that's right >> elementary mistake

44:41

>> um and so again I think PT never gives up make some elementary mistakes >> there's a lesson there >> lesson in there >> lesson in there for sure uh let's pull up this post from Andy showing a visual guide to the SpaceX IPO while I tell you about Codeex. Codex is a powerful

44:57

Codex is a powerful workspace for getting work done with AI agents.

45:01

Whether you're writing [music] code, analyzing data, creating content, or automating business workflows, Codeex helps you move projects forward from start to finish. So, what is this saying?

45:10

What's going to happen here?

45:12

>> This is technical analysis.

45:13

>> Okay, this is technical analysis.

45:13

And he's saying that it's going to pop on IPO day, sell off for three straight years, >> and then go to the moon.

45:22

Is that this is that and and every he's basically saying that everyone's going to be taking victory laps if the stock trades down in 2026, 2027, 2028, [laughter] but then ultimately they will all be upset.

45:36

I mean, there there are some crazy uh articles out there that are like uh the rise and fall of Elon Musk a year ago, like he can't possibly come back from the reputational damage he's done to himself, from no one's buying the cars.

45:49

>> No one's buying the cars.

45:49

And it's like, well, they're buying the stocks, so you [laughter] know, it's going to be okay, I guess.

45:53

Um, Founders Fund Investment at 200 million might be the best venture investment in history.

45:59

A lot of that is just the holding to fruition like because the early investors in Google or Microsoft or uh Amazon, like a lot of them distributed at IPO at like a five billion value.

46:15

>> Even some of the founders, right? Bill Gates. >> Oh yeah.

46:17

He sold too early, right? paper hands big.

46:19

>> No, the only thing is I do think Masa hasn't beat I I think Masa hasn't beat with Alibaba >> because it was like 20 million into 70 billion. >> Sure.

46:27

>> On a shorter time horizon. >> Mog mogged.

46:29

Anyway, uh [laughter] >> yeah, think about even more risk.

46:36

Uh Mallister Higgins says, "I'm at the bottom of a multi-layer >> son bought into Alibaba for 20 million in 2000.

46:43

By the 2014 IPO, it was worth 75 billion. >> Okay. Well, >> wow. >> Game's not over. It's young.

46:49

They can make it all back.

46:52

So, I'm at the bottom of a multi-layer SPV and I'm looking forward to the SpaceX IPO in much the same way a Golden Retriever looks toward looks forward to a car ride. Thrilled to be involved. No clue how cars work.

47:07

Unsure if going to the park or getting neutered.

47:09

[laughter] And Matt Grim says, "Godspeed, sir.

47:14

It's actually so funny to be in that position where you're just uh you just have no idea what you guys are worth or what you'll wind up getting.

47:20

Um uh this James, >> this is a new this is a new format, by the way. >> Yeah. Oh, wait.

47:26

Oh, this whole golden retriever thing.

47:29

>> No, like I'm I predict other ways to apply this. >> Oh, yeah.

47:32

Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, that makes sense. Uh I like it. I like it.

47:35

Uh pick the next uh the next post while I tell everyone about console.

47:41

console builds AI agents [applause] that automates 70% of IT, HR, and finance or giving employees instant resolution for access requests and password resets.

47:47

Um, Brad Gersonner is sharing some historical performance of IPOs. Uh, split adjusted.

47:55

Nvidia IPOed at 4 cents and is at 200 bucks today.

47:58

Apple at 10 cents, 292 today.

48:00

Uh, these big tech companies have all delivered fantastic returns.

48:08

And the question is uh why is he posting this today?

48:10

Is he putting SpaceX in this category?

48:12

I mean one other Elon Musk companies in this category.

48:16

So that's certainly the pitch here.

48:18

not not a super fair uh not that he's comparing to spa to to SpaceX or trying to elude that uh there there's connection here but all of these companies IPOed before the private markets had evolved to capture you know massive amounts of the value creation >> Amazon is a $2.

48:41

5 trillion company SpaceX is IPOing at 2. 2 two trillion.

48:44

When Amazon IPOed, it was not as big as Exxon Mobile.

48:50

It was not jumping directly into the top five, top 10 biggest companies in the world.

48:55

And so, like there's always this question of like, okay, where will like it's not it's it's always interesting when a company IPOs and you're like, oh, they could be a disruptor and they could flip something.

49:07

Like I was always thinking about this like Figma obviously up stocks up and down but like there was a very clear like well what if Figma flips Adobe like okay you know is that possible is that your thesis well Figma IPOs at at 20 and Figma's and Adobe's at 100 like you can see closing the gap and that's the 5x and that's probably what a lot of people

49:28

were were like underwriting against but it's hard like you really do need to expand the global economy get to Mars do all the crazy things to actually create an a new class of of company to get that type of return because if you're if you're getting the Brad Gersonner style, you know, 100x thousandx post IPO return, you're looking at a quadrillion dollar company. >> Yeah. >> Yeah.

49:49

>> Which is a hundred quund quadrillion dollar 100 quadrillion pennies, which is a lot.

49:54

Can you imagine telling somebody that 2 years ago >> that SpaceX in 2026 would be worth 2.

49:59

3 trillion and Meta would be worth 1.

50:05

4 trillion with Meta 200 billion of revenue growing 30% year-over-year. >> It's crazy. It's wild.

50:14

Uh >> even Amazon being even in the same being within striking distance.

50:20

We've debated with friends about who's the goat, Elon, Bezos, how do you how do you match them up?

50:25

And we have a friend who's always like, well, and Amazon Amazon owns cash flow.

50:31

>> Amazon owns like roughly like somewhere like around 20% of anthropic.

50:37

>> Um, >> and uh it is just we get so desensitized to these large >> this is a special founder, special company, unique situation.

50:46

Dan Primac is talking about the IPO pop.

50:49

He says, "If you view a typical IPO pop as 10%, then the bar for SpaceX is $162, which is the current indicated open, although it's been falling."

51:00

Okay, so as >> fact check false. >> Okay, explain.

51:06

>> Uh I mean it's much higher than 162, right?

51:08

>> Oh, so it's popped more than 20%.

51:10

>> It's like at I mean what? Yeah, 24%.

51:13

>> Leave it to Tyler to make a stock chart that doesn't show the price per share.

51:18

I [laughter] was like, I just market cap. >> No, we can flip it. We can flip it around. I like market caps.

51:21

Anyway, uh >> I pulled up approximate evaluation valuations that IPO for Nvidia was uh 430 million fully diluted >> dollars. >> Yes.

51:37

[laughter] >> Apple was 100 1.

51:39

3 billion >> dollars or cents.

51:47

Uh Microsoft was 777 million market cap.

51:53

>> 77 million [laughter] what? >> Dollars or cents?

51:58

>> US dollars >> or dollars?

52:00

>> Because the real the real move is to is to like IPO in like Zimbabwe and cents or something that like or or German rice marks because then you're just like yeah I'm I'm actually a trillion dollar company too.

52:11

You're like, "Well, what what would it be in uh in USD?"

52:13

And you're like, "It's a $4 million >> 01 cents 01 >> or 01."

52:20

>> Huge news for the Dgens's in the audience.

52:22

There's already a SpaceX 2x levered ETF.

52:25

[laughter] You had 2x SpaceX exposure on day one.

52:30

It's handing an AK-47 to a monkey according to liquidity.

52:33

[laughter] Uh it's happening. It's happening, folks.

52:36

Um, >> I saw this earlier and it looked like like that ETF was trading before SpaceX was actually trading.

52:42

>> Maybe they got exposure through some SPV.

52:44

>> Yeah, I guess I guess that's not that >> the Defiance Defiance Daily 2X SpaceX ETF seeks to provide 200% of SpaceX's daily performance.

52:53

So, they do it synthetically, they do it with a whole bunch of other instruments.

52:55

There's a lot going on there.

52:57

Let me tell you about Cisco.

52:59

Critical infrastructure for the AI era.

53:01

Unlock seamless real-time experiences of new value with Cisco.

53:05

[music] Uh, big shout out to our friends at 137 Ventures, Justin, Alex.

53:14

>> They invested one time in SpaceX, three times in SpaceX, seven times, >> four times, >> seven times in SpaceX, >> 10 times.

53:21

>> We've invested 137 times in SpaceX.

53:24

Basically, >> nominative determinism is actually crazy. >> It's crazy.

53:27

[laughter] They ripped out.

53:29

>> Why are you called 137 Ventures?

53:29

Because we're going to invest in SpaceX 137 times. It worked. >> And it worked. It worked.

53:37

They printed >> the level of conviction.

53:41

>> And Justin Fishner Wolson has a profile in the New York Times talking about his story building that firm.

53:46

And they do more than secondaries.

53:49

They do more than SpaceX.

53:51

Obviously, they're huge investors in all sorts of great companies.

53:55

Many of them have been featured on the show, but SpaceX has stood out as a particularly interesting journey for them since they've been uh amassing ownership for 15 years.

54:04

Uh and they've done a fantastic job with that.

54:10

Uh the firm now owns more than 1% of SpaceX worth roughly 20 billion at the expected 1. 77 trillion valuation.

54:17

So it's closer to 30 now. Congratulations.

54:23

this will most likely define my career.

54:25

Uh he Justin said in an interview this week, congrats to Christian Garrett.

54:30

Congrats to Justin and the rest of the team over there.

54:31

Um heard in the chats, I put $1 million SpaceX order through a private bank and just got filled only 50k, 120th of what uh this individual asked for.

54:44

Most people I spoke to have gotten even less.

54:46

We had some folks on the team put in orders for 20 shares, 50 shares, 100 shares, and only get a small fraction of that.

54:53

How much did you get, Tyler? >> Uh, I got 22.

54:56

>> 22 shares, but you requested more. >> Yes. And then Yeah.

54:59

I mean, we've had a lot of people, they say they only got one share. >> Brutal. >> The one share wonder.

55:05

>> That's almost worse than zero shares because you can see it in your portfolio. >> Yeah.

55:08

What if they could give you short interest?

55:09

They're like, you asked for five shares, but we give you negative one share.

55:12

We give you [laughter] we give you the inverse ETF.

55:15

Actually, you're it's over for you. >> Yeah.

55:20

I was uh I was surprised by this. Yeah.

55:24

>> Given the given the offers that were given the offers that were flying around, I got uh >> uh offered like a $50 million allocation.

55:32

Obviously, not um uh uh wasn't going to take that down myself, [laughter] but uh I just um >> Wow. Just say you risk off. [laughter] Uh, no.

55:43

I but I but I responded to the guy and I was like, I don't even know.

55:48

I'm not even going to text anyone because like it feels like this is there's like so much allocation available for everyone that it's kind of it's just not even worth firing off text. >> Yeah.

55:58

>> Um, but turns out there uh there was there was a lot more demand than supply.

56:04

>> Uh, it's it's making its way through the through the world through the through the iMessage DMs.

56:09

Buddy needs to relax, says RJC. SpaceX IPO this week. Thoughts on SpaceX? SpaceX IPO?

56:16

What are we thinking, boss? Who is this? It's Kyle.

56:21

I was your Uber driver three months ago.

56:23

>> Nick had a funny This can't be real because Uber drivers don't get your phone number anymore.

56:27

It all happens in the app. This is ridiculous.

56:29

>> Maybe they had a good conversation. They exchanged numbers. >> Yeah.

56:32

And also these just like like the rendering of the text.

56:33

It doesn't look iMessage enough to me.

56:35

I don't believe it, but it's funny.

56:39

Nick did get a funny text this morning from somebody who is uh >> certainly not uh >> a professional >> not a professional investor saying >> texting him advice being like you want to get in but then you want to get out

56:53

you want to get in and get out get in get out get in get out get out get in but then get out by the end of the day and Nick's sitting there with his one chair [laughter] >> just getting like potentially like I don't know might end up being the right advice. But probably like

57:09

But probably like >> one of my favorite things is the retail traders who focus on like uh apotheenic apeic interpretations of charts chartlogy.

57:18

Have you seen this stuff?

57:20

>> Yeah, I was doing this.

57:20

I was I was drawing the lines this morning.

57:24

>> So there's a whole trend of like okay this is the classic head and shoulders pattern. This is the camel.

57:27

This is the dramadary camel.

57:30

This is the elephant pattern.

57:31

You got a draft formation uh following there.

57:34

Clearly going to trade up after this >> weather. >> Yeah. weather reporting. It's good.

57:40

You're not miked, so I don't know if we're going to hear you.

57:41

[laughter] Anyway, let me tell you about Figma agents. Meet the canvas.

57:46

Your AI agents can now create and modify your Figma files with design system context.

57:51

Let's go to the Figma big board.

57:56

>> IPO, >> uh, we're going to brand it in just a little bit. We're working on that.

58:01

>> Whole plane watching the SpaceX IPO except for one dude watching Avatar. >> This is a good meme.

58:05

I've seen this before because it was about the Knicks game, I think, or >> Yeah, that was the original photo. >> It was interesting.

58:11

I I was expecting SpaceX IPO to make the the front page of the Wall Street Journal. It did not.

58:16

It also didn't make it to the front page of the Financial Times.

58:19

I imagine it will tomorrow or Monday, but uh North America's World Cup paid off in Mexico.

58:26

The World Cup is a bigger national international news >> for the Wall Street Journal.

58:30

>> Yeah, >> the Journal of Wall Street, John. >> Yep.

58:33

>> They couldn't have predicted that.

58:33

Hey, there might be the biggest IPO of all time.

58:38

>> Yeah, it's interesting because normally normally things get uh get kicked out of the front page.

58:42

>> Cat sees a turtle head forming on the chart.

58:44

>> Turtle [laughter] turtle.

58:48

>> It's a it's a classic Buru uh formation or something.

58:52

>> They're also saying that uh an Iranian trillionaire is about 726,000 USD. >> There you go. There you go.

58:59

Uh well, let's give it up for Nikita Beer.

59:04

generational [applause] run.

59:04

Sold two companies and then did a third company.

59:11

Didn't even need to aqua hire it to get, you know, a fantastic outcome here with SpaceX.

59:15

He got a DM from Shawn Maguire about two years ago.

59:18

A little over two years ago.

59:20

Sean says, "Hey, I have a crazy opportunity for you."

59:22

And Nikita just says, "I'm in." [laughter] I like this.

59:27

It's such a great way to respond to just you because you say I'm in that's not going to be binding if you don't want to do it.

59:34

It's it's just a way to say I I you know I want to hear more.

59:37

Uh but it was clearly to come to Axe the everything app work on a bunch of innovative features there which have shipped and the app has gotten great and we love it and use it all the time.

59:46

Um >> more addicted than ever Nikita >> and then jump into XAI and then jump into SpaceX and then be at the NASDAQ for this IPO. Uh what a great run. >> And uh >> Nikita.

1:00:00

>> Yeah, super happy for Nikita.

1:00:00

He jumped into the internet's dive bar. >> Yeah.

1:00:05

>> He started getting into some fist fights, you know, swinging.

1:00:06

fights, you know, swinging. there were there were prediction markets about like is Nikita going to get fired this week and stuff and he figured out how to deliver more and more value keep people happy and he kept I I think the key thing was that he never he would be he would make aggressive like ant like user

1:00:22

hostile moves but they were always for the people that always ignored like were annoying to the power users so it would be like there's a thousand people that are >> two minute response time >> really good >> lesson in there >> extremely online so he would he would be like oh there's thousands of people that are mad in Nikita and I'd be like what are they mad about? Like I'm not mad. Like I'm not mad.

1:00:41

And it's like oh they banned bots who are operating from North Korea who have been hacking cryptocurrency schemes or something like that.

1:00:47

I'm like yeah actually I'm glad that they're mad at Nikita.

1:00:50

Nikita is doing the right thing. This is good.

1:00:51

Uh and so uh you know he picked fights.

1:00:54

He picked a lot of fights with some very >> audience with like a guy who is mad about the revenue share program and all he says every morning is good morning [laughter] >> comment to like a million posts.

1:01:05

Um, and the other thing, uh, after after the acquisition, a lot of people like were speculating, oh, oh, is TBPN, uh, you know, sha are they going to shadowban TVPN?

1:01:21

>> A good proof point today.

1:01:21

Uh, Elon Musk liked one of our posts this morning.

1:01:27

>> Uh, and so we were never shadowbanned.

1:01:30

Uh I genuinely I genuinely always trusted u Nikita and the whole X team to not >> uh put their thumb on the scale.

1:01:40

>> We never saw anything in the data so we were never like worried about it.

1:01:42

Um >> but they've been uh fair and we're happy to be on this platform as crazy and chaotic as it is and we're happy for their success.

1:01:54

So >> uh let me tell you about Shopify.

1:01:58

Shopify is the commerce platform that grows with your business and lets you sell in seconds online, in store, on mobile, on social, on marketplace, and now with AI agents. >> Here's a good post. Yes, Peter Diamandis.

1:02:07

He says, "People >> ask me how I stay so optimistic."

1:02:10

The honest answer, I read the data, not the headlines.

1:02:16

I have a feeling I know what data he was reading.

1:02:18

John, you know what data? >> What data? >> Morgan Stanley. >> Yeah.

1:02:23

who said they see a path for SpaceX to generate half a trillion dollars in revenue by 2030.

1:02:31

>> If you're looking at that data, how can you not be optimistic? >> Path is a path. Path is a path.

1:02:33

Uh the flip side is that uh this we're getting into the world, you know, Nvidia earnings are holding up the global economy.

1:02:41

Ken Kirtland says the entire world after the SpaceX IPO will say every societ every society is one Falcon 9 failure away from chaos.

1:02:49

uh because people will be watching the SpaceX earnings, SpaceX launches very intently.

1:02:56

I wonder what the correlation between SpaceX launch setbacks or successes will be with the stock because we're at a point where the actual launch business is less material to where earnings come in, where valuation comes in.

1:03:11

I feel like the stock you know has you know throughout two decades has been able to I mean there's been very rough moments obviously uh with early failures but in general uh you know if if Starship the Starship program gets delayed uh that hasn't been something where it's like oh SpaceX is going to do a down route now it's just been like oh that's a bummer they're going to have to invest more.

1:03:33

Um but a Falcon 9 launch failure is not that material when they're launching so many of them.

1:03:40

It's a funny idea, but I disagree with the actual takeaway there.

1:03:44

Uh anyway, uh let me tell you about Codeex and the Road to Olympia expansion pack, uh which is uh sponsoring this, uh episode.

1:03:55

It takes your training split and refactors it into production grade hypertrophy code. No more junk volume.

1:04:02

No more spaghetti programming.

1:04:02

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1:04:04

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1:04:12

Build failed insufficient carbs.

1:04:14

The codeex road to Olympia expansion pack is available now.

1:04:17

That's a good [laughter] one. >> That's a good one. Well, John, it's noon.

1:04:21

Yeah, >> I think it's time. >> Okay. Okay.

1:04:23

Let's reveal our predictions.

1:04:25

So, we all said, "Can we do it in percentages or I guess we should do it in market caps? What what's next?" >> Uh, price per share. >> Price per share. Okay.

1:04:35

What did it uh what what was the price per share when it >> IPO? 135. >> 135. Okay. So, I said 0%. I [laughter] said 135.

1:04:43

I said the bankers This is the funniest outcome is that the bankers got it perfectly correct.

1:04:49

The market is perfectly efficient.

1:04:52

No pop, no selloff, completely flatline on the chart.

1:04:58

>> That's [laughter] >> that's a very kugan bit, but like you don't want that. It kind of pops.

1:05:03

You want a little bit of a pop and I would say they have done that like pretty much uh they've gotten it very very very close. Right.

1:05:12

Currently sitting at a 24% pop. >> Uh >> 24% pop. >> 24% >> 167. Okay. So, uh what did you say?

1:05:20

What was your percent in percentages >> was? >> I had 0%. It's at 24%. >> I was too bullish. >> You were too bullish. >> I was too bullish.

1:05:29

I I was expecting somewhere around two $183 a share by 2 minutes ago. >> 3.

1:05:37

>> We're currently at 167. Way off.

1:05:39

>> What percentage is that?

1:05:40

>> I I thought it would open I thought it was going to open >> above 170.

1:05:46

I thought it was going to open above 170 and then run more. Yeah.

1:05:49

>> Turns out it opened in the '60s, dropped down to around 158, and then built back up from there. >> I was off.

1:05:56

>> So I had So I had 0%, you had 33%. It's at 24%. >> I was just right. >> I went uh 31%. >> Which would be 176. >> 17. So >> I'm a little high. A little high.

1:06:07

>> So you got the But I win. >> You win. You win.

1:06:09

And And does everyone want to know what Tyler wins?

1:06:11

What the what the uh what the prize was today?

1:06:16

prize is that whoever wins gets to do one extra ramp ad read.

1:06:19

So, it's such a treat and I get Yeah, and I get to I hoard them every day. So, here you go, Tyler.

1:06:27

Feel free to read the ramp ad to the audience. >> Ramp time is money. Save both.

1:06:31

Easy to use corporate cards, bill payments, accounting, and a whole lot more. >> All in one place. There we go. That was great.

1:06:38

I hope you enjoyed that, Tyler.

1:06:40

Don't get too comfortable with that. >> Back to Tyler. >> There we go. on. >> There we go.

1:06:46

>> Um, funniest outcome is the most likely.

1:06:49

>> The funniest outcome [laughter] would be 10 trillion or zero trillion.

1:06:52

>> No, no, >> the chat says it. >> What is it? >> 67. >> Ended up at 167. >> Okay. Yeah, I did have that.

1:06:58

[laughter] I did have that down.

1:07:00

One of the things I was going to >> And that's like that is that is the most funny outcome if you're 12 years old.

1:07:07

Like I can't think >> stock split it goes to 420. >> Yeah, >> right. That's pretty good. >> Yeah.

1:07:13

Uh well, there are some other stories that we should run through now that the SpaceX IPO has settled a little bit.

1:07:20

Uh >> Allison's Old Cupboat is on the market. >> Oo, that's big.

1:07:25

>> And it is a 1999 Custom International America's Cup class USCG certified 20 packs. It's 84 ft.

1:07:36

>> It is listed for $149,000. Mhm.

1:07:42

>> This is a fantastic looking boat and uh they're at they're they're giving it away.

1:07:48

Uh the comments say it it's been severely chopped up so it can operate as a tourist boat.

1:07:56

>> Um and uh anyways, please one of you uh in the in the chat or listening later, please pick this up >> and let's slap some ramp logos on it. >> Love it. >> Let's ride around.

1:08:09

We'll do [snorts] uh we'll do a live show from the from the boat. >> This is great.

1:08:16

Um James Murphy, the CEO of LMNT.

1:08:22

Have we not had him on the show somehow? Uh because we get LMT.

1:08:24

We we we we drink them all the time in the studio.

1:08:27

Anyway, he filed a lawsuit against a company called Oasis.

1:08:31

He says Oasis misled consumers knowingly, repeatedly.

1:08:34

The case against the case with LMNT is straightforward. It's linked below.

1:08:40

But this case is about more than that to me.

1:08:43

It's about fabricated fear for profit.

1:08:45

This is about a group a group of online health creators that have lost their way terrorizing people, especially new parents of young kids and those with vulnerable conditions.

1:08:52

There are hundreds of accounts now manufacturing scientific sounding content often with AI that they know almost nothing about.

1:09:00

Oasis has misled millions of people uh about hundreds of products and our day in court is coming.

1:09:05

You might have seen these viral posts where uh sort of an upand cominging brand, an RXAR or David Protein or an LMT or any of these others will screenshot like something that's like okay, even if you're like I don't like that particular ingredient, it's like generally a health food and then it'll be like Cheetos or Doritos is like 10 times healthier or something like that.

1:09:28

that. And so that was going viral and people were noticing that wait all the health foods are getting really poorly rated if they're independent brands challenger brands and things like Coca-Cola, beer, whiskey, alcohols were

1:09:41

had like 99 no problems and it seemed like there was a lot of a lot of potential hallucinations in the data, a lot of uh you know less rigor and so uh I believe Quinn Emanuel has been retained for this lawsuit and it should be uh pretty crazy. James Murphy shares

1:09:56

James Murphy shares more.

1:09:58

He says, "I keep hearing from more companies that have been harmed by Oasis and other fear maxing accounts that misrepresent testing."

1:10:04

So Oasis would claim to test the products for different ingredients, different harmful substances, put that on a >> For what it's worth, they weren't actually doing their own testing. >> Okay.

1:10:15

They weren't >> they were taking test results that the brands had published. >> Yeah.

1:10:21

>> And then misreading the results. >> Interesting. >> And publishing.

1:10:24

So, at one point, >> uh, at one point, you know, and and, uh, disclaimer, >> I know James very well.

1:10:33

>> Uh, I I I know Cormarmac.

1:10:33

Cormarmac at one point, the founder of Oasis, was considering >> doing PMF for Die. >> Oh, really?

1:10:42

>> Not for Oasis, but he had another idea.

1:10:45

>> Um, it didn't make sense for him to do because, uh, Oasis was, you know, growing and, um, already at at some scale.

1:10:53

Um, and I think that Corormarmac gen sort of generally has uh good intentions, but uh uh has created what I think is a system that uh that ultimately profits off of uh creating massive fear around products that people love, products that are made by many entrepreneurs that are friends of mine that I trust of products that I, you know, use every single day.

1:11:23

Thinking like Kettle and Fire, Element, things like that.

1:11:28

>> Yeah, >> Kettle and Fire got a really low rating.

1:11:30

Something like >> they got a I think maybe a one out of 10 or one out of 100 at one point. >> Uh which which again. Yeah.

1:11:35

So anyway, so he like has ended up in a cycle where like the more fear and controversy that he creates, the more app downloads he drives, the more subscription revenues that he drives.

1:11:48

Uh and it's created a very vicious cycle.

1:11:51

Corormarmac has openly admitted that the way to go viral online is to be divisive, to be controversial, >> and so he just basically picks popular brands >> and uh and goes after them, right?

1:12:03

And so with Element as a good example, >> um uh he like fully misread the results, put out a bunch of super viral videos about it, left them up for over a year while again there there's views coming in.

1:12:21

element is suffering uh you know harm from that.

1:12:24

Uh James has uh if you read some of his posts he's talked about this like you get uh you get like way more lead from having like a clean organic salad than like a lot of you know lead ends up in like parts per billion. >> Yeah. Yeah. It's so low.

1:12:42

It's in everything because everything in biology is about concentration.

1:12:46

Like you can have like one part per trillion of like cyanide and that can be healthier for you than having drinking, you know, 100 gallons of water because if you drink too much water, you will die, right? And these things matter.

1:13:01

And so the just just keyword searching for particular substances is not enough.

1:13:08

>> And and I went I read through the entire uh the entire complaint and again these are allegations.

1:13:14

It's up to the court and judge to determine >> what's factual, but uh ultimately >> uh ultimately my personal view is that it's not looking good for >> Oasis and Cormarmac I think like >> sort of uh they claim that they're um they scaled faster than their quality >> controls happens.

1:13:38

Um, but at the same time, uh, I don't think that that is a good answer when you're >> knowingly leaving up content that is damaging companies and you're profiting off of that damage for >> uh, >> literally over a year and this is just one brand.

1:13:57

And so there's been hundreds of brands >> that have been damaged.

1:14:00

They added using what I think are like vibecoded rating system.

1:14:06

they added hundreds of thousands of products >> without actually checking them.

1:14:09

And so >> ultimately it's like it's one thing uh James has had issues.

1:14:18

>> Element has had issues with this company for I want to say now uh according to the complaint like 15 months or something like that.

1:14:26

So it's not like he had some issue and immediately was like >> people were DMing founders were probably DMing immediately being like wait what? >> Yeah.

1:14:34

So they've they've gone back and forth for a long time. >> Yeah.

1:14:37

>> Cormarmac hasn't backed down. >> Yeah.

1:14:40

>> Uh and so this wasn't something like slight issue boom lawsuit.

1:14:42

This was like tried to resolve it over the course of a year.

1:14:48

>> Uh Kettle and Fire getting a >> and you can't like you can't spread misinformation about companies >> for that long in that way >> without getting a phone call from Quinn Emanuel. >> Well, yeah.

1:15:01

>> Well, yeah. I mean ultimately it's like the worst if uh if you're going to get sued it's literally the worst person to have on the other side [laughter] like um uh it is not uh they are you know we've had John Quinn we've had the founder >> uh here on the show with us he's the

1:15:20

most feared and uh >> yeah I don't I don't know how this gets resolved right now >> are so I understand how the brands were harmed like Kettle and Fire had a one out of 100 score uh I I hilariously like the Miller Highife glass bottle 40 ounce malt liquor beer had an 81 out of a 100. Uh and so you

1:15:38

Uh and so you can imagine how kettle >> and to Cormarmac's defense >> in Cormarmac's defense he claims that different categories get different scores. Okay.

1:15:49

But that is not how a consumer is going to experience because product. >> Yeah.

1:15:55

As a consumer, I switch, even though I love Justin, I switched from Kettle and Fire to Miller High Life.

1:15:58

And I was and I was cooking it. Exactly.

1:16:01

And I actually switched >> And you were heating it up on the stove like soup? >> Yeah. Yeah.

1:16:08

I would cook everything with it.

1:16:09

I'd make I'd use it as a stock like I use kettle and fire.

1:16:13

>> So you were instead of instead of going for kettle and fire, which is like a clean source of protein.

1:16:17

It was a big debate at Thanksgiving last year where I insisted that our whole family use Miller High >> putting it on the stove, putting scoops of whey protein in it to kind of recreate something like a bone broth but with healthier >> and I thought I was I thought I was getting 81 times the health benefit. So, I don't know.

1:16:36

Maybe there should be a maybe there should be a [laughter] >> Can you hit the uh FA?

1:16:43

>> Yeah, Mike's Hard Lemonade also got an 81.

1:16:46

and monster the beast hard pink poison can got 70.

1:16:50

I I actually switched from element to Mike's hard lemonade as like a pre-workout.

1:16:55

And >> yeah, >> I think I have a case to join the the the the class action if there is one for the consumer.

1:17:02

>> I don't know that there's a class action yet, but here's the thing.

1:17:04

You you've done substantial amount of brand damage to potentially hundreds of brands on your platform. >> Yeah.

1:17:11

which has its own damages associated with it while you've been profiting off of it.

1:17:16

The comp, you know, Cormarmac uh talks about >> their MR.

1:17:21

They're doing hundreds of thousands of dollars a month of revenue.

1:17:25

>> Um and uh yeah, I'm interested to see how it, you know, resolves.

1:17:29

Um the ultimately >> making hundreds of thousands.

1:17:34

You have to put some respect in his name for getting for making hundreds of thousands of dollars switching consumers from bone broth to Miller highlight.

1:17:43

[laughter] >> Like you can't not smile.

1:17:45

It would have been rags to rich's story.

1:17:48

>> It would have been if you told me that was possible I wouldn't have believed you. >> It's absolutely wild.

1:17:53

No, but you've you you know the result of >> the last year is that millions of people have >> got misinformation are more are more scared.

1:18:05

There's very real reasons.

1:18:05

Like I walk into the gas station and I'm on high alert.

1:18:09

I'm like everything in here.

1:18:11

>> Just just give me the Miller highlight.

1:18:13

I just want [laughter] the Miller highlight. >> Yeah.

1:18:14

I got the I got the blinders on.

1:18:14

I don't want anything that's bad for me.

1:18:18

No, I think like there are a lot of consumer packaged goods that uh effectively poison.

1:18:23

Of course, but when you build a business.

1:18:27

>> Wait, you mean like literally poison?

1:18:28

Are you talking about the the Monster Energy pink poison can because that's the [laughter] flavor of that particular product.

1:18:34

>> The one that got it got a 60 or >> It got a 71 out of 100.

1:18:36

Much better for you than L&T apparently.

1:18:41

>> Um >> Pink Point can is wild. [laughter] >> Yeahing. No.

1:18:44

Um I I would I guess my my I don't know, you know, again again to Steelman Cormarmac.

1:18:57

>> Yeah, >> he seems to be like hiring more people.

1:19:00

They've never to my knowledge had any like scientists or any anyone on the team.

1:19:06

Um uh and so getting some of those getting like a food scientist on board.

1:19:13

Uh, I think they've taken down some listings.

1:19:16

>> Yeah, it's hard because if you if you put up a listing and that shows up in SEO for a while like and someone goes to an authoritative web page, learns what they think is a fact.

1:19:25

Just taking it down like you're not able to actually reach that person and correct the record.

1:19:31

You know, the community notes feature on X is like pretty good, but it's hard because like if you didn't interact with that post and then it gets a and then it gets a community note later, that's probably not going to resurface unless it's such a big story that it's like, oh, we all thought this thing post that you spend a lot of time on do not resurface unless a quote of it goes like >> it needs to be its own story.

1:19:55

especially on Instagram which doesn't even have like a quote functionality which is where >> uh >> it happens sometimes when when there's like there's some there's some idea that's going viral and then the debunk is so satisfying and such good content that everyone sort of updates

1:20:11

collectively but that's rare >> and I ultimately I I I feel again there's there's hundreds of companies that have experienced what it's like to be on the receiving end of like you know a platform form that doesn't fully understand the category that they're operating in. >> Yeah. >> Yeah.

1:20:29

>> Where they're sitting there being like, I put two years into developing like >> the best possible version that I could ever make of this product. >> Yeah.

1:20:38

>> Like going above and beyond and I'm being rated like 90% less than pink poison from [laughter] Monster, you know?

1:20:47

It's like it's it's like I do believe that there's probably been hundreds of millions of dollars of damage done >> uh and damage done to >> the best actors in the space.

1:21:01

Like as a as somebody that likes trying new CPG products, like >> I will often find that there's like a window of time that's usually like 10 years before something like falls off, right?

1:21:13

It's like founder starts it.

1:21:13

It's like very missiondriven.

1:21:15

that's obsessed with quality.

1:21:17

Uh they they get a lot of customers because people love the product and like you can just feel that the founder is like obsessed and like I will I love buying products where I know the person.

1:21:27

I'm like do I trust this person?

1:21:30

>> Uh I know you know James quite quite well. I know you know Justin. Yeah. >> Uh uh even better.

1:21:35

And it's like if I know these guys are giving their products to their family and I know how obsessed they are with health.

1:21:43

I know they have done everything they possibly could have to make the best possible product in the category.

1:21:49

And so uh for for entrepreneurs like that to be on the receiving end while big CPG just gets a total pass on pretty much seemingly everything. >> Yeah.

1:22:03

uh is just like it is serve it is doing the exact it is having the exact opposite effect that you would want to have on the category which is like hurting the good actors and propping up the bad actors and like it wouldn't be unreasonable to to think that the entire platform was a was a front for big CPG to try to keep down upstarts.

1:22:23

I'm not saying that at all.

1:22:25

I don't believe that at all.

1:22:27

But um [laughter] uh I think to to Cormarmac's credit, he does have a pretty cool uh Ferrari, >> does he? >> Yeah. >> Yeah.

1:22:37

He at one point says he wish they were renting.

1:22:40

>> They wish they were rented because they bought Ferraris. Yeah. Yeah.

1:22:41

It's uh it's rough, but I'm going to take the other side say I'm glad that you're promotion. >> You're welcome.

1:22:49

Uh uh again, I don't think he has bad intentions, but uh >> he's moving a little bit too fast.

1:22:57

breaking a too a few too many things.

1:22:58

>> Breaking a lot of things, >> breaking the trust of a lot of consumers and I think some fantastic companies and uh Cormax's welcome to come on the show. Uh >> talk about it.

1:23:10

Talk about the rebirth, the rebuild, the next generation.

1:23:12

And I'm not sure that I'm not sure I don't I don't necessarily think that the company should I believe that Oasis now >> is losing trust from consumers >> uh for very good reason, right?

1:23:27

They've been misled >> for a very long time.

1:23:30

Uh so I'm not convinced that the company should continue.

1:23:35

Cormarmac is like a very talented >> Yeah.

1:23:38

builder thing >> builder.

1:23:39

Like he's done a lot with a small team.

1:23:41

>> I would like to see him apply that skill set.

1:23:43

Like if you want to go viral a lot. >> Yeah.

1:23:46

>> Like maybe health is not the right category. >> It's hard. It's hard.

1:23:52

Sleep, diet, and exercise get you a lot.

1:23:57

>> All the controversial stuff, all the fringe stuff, you you bump into good content not always being aligned with like good science or like what's legal. >> Yeah.

1:24:06

>> Uh anyway, uh do you see this new YC company?

1:24:08

They're calling it the last agent your company will ever need.

1:24:10

its name, the company company.

1:24:13

This is right out of your playbook.

1:24:16

The company company of New York or San Francisco. They went full company. The company company. Very funny. >> Good domain, too. The company.

1:24:28

>> I hope this is the last >> really the company. Company. >> Yeah.

1:24:31

It is so funny how the company long this this naming convention will never die.

1:24:36

I mean, uh, Shotwell was at the Aerospace Corporation, which sounds like a fake company [laughter] and like a movie, um, but is a real company that's been operating since 1960.

1:24:48

>> The space exploration company.

1:24:48

Uh, we got to hit the gong for Zayn's dad. Zayn from Knox Metal.

1:24:53

He's been on the show and he has some fantastic news.

1:24:56

His dad just beat cancer yesterday.

1:24:59

He says, "One tough cookie.

1:25:05

[applause] to Zayn's dad.

1:25:08

And I'm excited for his dad. I'm excited for Zayn.

1:25:12

I'm also excited about this gong because if you zoom in on this gong, it's sponsored.

1:25:20

It's a sponsored gong in the hospital.

1:25:23

Strickland Auto Group paid for the gong in the in the hospital.

1:25:26

When you beat cancer, you ring the Strickland Auto Group uh the Strickland Auto Group gong.

1:25:34

And if you zoom in below, you can actually see that there are more sponsors.

1:25:38

They have their own logo bar with Stratford, Toyota, Strickland's AutoMart, and Strickland's another another company in the Strickland portfolio.

1:25:46

And so I love that this local business uh went in and partnered with this hospital to celebrate cancer survivors.

1:25:55

I thought it was really, really cool.

1:25:57

Have you seen this guy who goes on, it looks like a local radio show and he calls people pretending to be an AI agent. Have you seen these?

1:26:08

Okay, we got to pull this one up. Uh Kai the AI guy.

1:26:10

Very funny and it really uh encapsulates a lot of people uh who frustrations with AI.

1:26:16

Uh this one I thought was particularly fun. Let's play this. >> I'm here. >> Great.

1:26:22

To ensure you are human, please open your fridge. Now close the fridge.

1:26:28

>> Oh, you got to go back to the beginning cuz he introduces your LG AI representative calling to speak with customer Natalie.

1:26:34

If this is you, please say yes or press one. >> Uh, yes. >> Thank you.

1:26:40

We're calling due to a notification from your new LG smart fridge.

1:26:44

But first, let's verify your identity.

1:26:47

Are you currently next to your fridge? Uh, >> no.

1:26:50

>> Please go to your fridge so we can continue. >> Okay, I'm here. >> Great.

1:26:54

To ensure you are human, please open your fridge. Now, close the fridge. Awesome. You're verified.

1:27:00

We received a notification from your LG smart fridge indicating a high level of use.

1:27:05

Do you know how many times you opened your fridge yesterday? >> Uh, I I don't. >> Please guess.

1:27:12

[laughter] >> Um, 10 times. >> Incorrect. Please guess again. [laughter] >> Okay. 20 times.

1:27:20

Yesterday, you opened your LG smart fridge 27 times. Great job.

1:27:26

You're not just setting records, you're breaking them.

1:27:28

You're in the top 1% of LG smart fridge users. Congratulations. >> Okay.

1:27:34

>> Your LG smart fridge notified us that you have never once said thank you after opening and closing the doors. Is this true? >> Uh, I don't know. >> It is.

1:27:43

Have you not said thank you because A, you are not pleased with your LG smart fridge?

1:27:47

B, there is always food in your mouth.

1:27:50

Or C, you were raised to be rude. >> Excuse me. >> Close.

1:27:54

I believe you meant to say, "I'm sorry, but great job." >> Okay.

1:27:58

Can I speak to a real human, please?

1:28:00

>> Connecting you with a sales representative. Sorry.

1:28:02

All our lines are busy right now, but not me.

1:28:04

Kai, your LG AI smart fridge correspondent.

1:28:08

What can I help you with today? >> What do you mean? You called me. >> You called me.

1:28:13

[laughter] >> Calling people is AI.

1:28:15

Prinkles are >> very fake. Very fake.

1:28:17

Very fake, but very good.

1:28:19

>> We got to bring prankles.

1:28:20

>> Oh, you think that's entirely fake? >> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Oh, that's a bit. >> I don't know.

1:28:24

>> That's a bit for sure.

1:28:26

>> You You think that she's in on it?

1:28:27

Because like you can do prank calls as a as a radio show host, right? >> Yeah. But like Yeah.

1:28:33

Oh, we just we we found people's data that had LG smart fridges. >> Call 10 people. Yeah. Yeah.

1:28:41

I know that I know she has an LG smart fridge.

1:28:44

or you call 20 people until you get someone that has this LG smart fridge. Then you do the bit.

1:28:49

>> The intonation in her voice at the end exposes it all.

1:28:53

>> Also, for social media, everything could be fake.

1:28:55

Anyway, uh do you think this video of the six foot tall humanoids fighting is fake?

1:28:59

Do you think this is a real video or a fake video?

1:29:01

Because this poster says real steel is here and it's not going well.

1:29:10

These humanoids are are really struggling. It lost its head.

1:29:12

That's pretty impressive. Okay.

1:29:14

Oh, they're really kicking each other.

1:29:19

[laughter] It's such a wild thing to watch.

1:29:20

This one isn't as ridiculous as many of That's a good popup.

1:29:26

Even after losing a head, what does the head do if it's just uh cosmetic?

1:29:30

It's an interesting twist.

1:29:34

Google is running new nationwide ads for >> uh t uh on TV for Whimo.

1:29:38

Whimo says its autonomous driver is statistically 10x safer than a human driver in the cities it served.

1:29:46

Built to never blink, tire, or get distracted.

1:29:48

Let's play this ad and give it a review.

1:29:52

>> Injure over a million of us every year because we're human.

1:30:00

>> That was a human driving. >> Complex. >> They're taking shots.

1:30:03

This is a hit piece on human drivers.

1:30:07

>> Never gets [music] tired or angry. or has a few too many. >> Has a few too many.

1:30:11

They're taking shots of the drunk drivers in the audience.

1:30:14

>> Are they going to pan?

1:30:14

[laughter] Are they going to pan to the teley?

1:30:16

I >> mean, there's like >> right now there's someone watching TV.

1:30:19

>> Are they going to pan to the teley op center where [laughter] >> we have?

1:30:26

That's the ace of the sleep.

1:30:26

That's not going to happen >> where it's like a brightly lit room of like doctors and experts watching each [laughter] screen just AI researchers watching.

1:30:35

>> Is it illegal if if your toop driver is drunk? I have no idea.

1:30:37

Yeah, I don't think there's any laws at all for any of this really.

1:30:43

It's all pretty uncharted.

1:30:46

>> I think it's all very case by case negotiations, city by city.

1:30:51

>> Will Manida says, "It brings me no joy to report I spent a year wondering why I was constantly sleepy and had a low sleep score on my Whoop.

1:30:57

That was totally cured by simply stopped wearing the Whoop."

1:31:01

[laughter] >> by simply stop wearing stopping wearing the whoop. >> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.

1:31:06

But >> um and X is turning this into a whole news story.

1:31:10

Ditching Whoop Tracker cured financiers sleep [laughter] worries.

1:31:14

>> Financi that's hilarious. Um yeah.

1:31:17

I mean I' I've done this take before like like uh you want to track your sleep like are you sleepy >> like think about it. >> Yeah. Yeah.

1:31:27

>> Come up with an answer. That's your sleep.

1:31:29

>> What's funny is like I never actually care about the score. >> No.

1:31:33

>> The score takes care of itself. >> Yeah.

1:31:35

But with eight sleep, I like the cooling. Like that's nice.

1:31:38

>> Well, and with eight sleep, I'm actually interested in like how is my REM versus deep sleep trending, things like that.

1:31:44

Uh resting heart rate, all all these other things.

1:31:46

I never am like, oh, what's my score today? >> Oh, the score.

1:31:49

Unless we were competing because then that was fun.

1:31:52

>> It seems like one of those like uh good hearts laws things, right?

1:31:53

Or if you like, oh, I need to get a better sleep score, then it's it doesn't like work as well. >> Yeah.

1:32:00

Review this Toyota the MR2 new secret MR2 from Toyota will be all thanks to Toyota's love of petrol sports cars.

1:32:08

Where are you ranking this >> track weapon? >> This looks good.

1:32:11

This looks like what it it's sort of a like the future should look like the future thing.

1:32:16

I mean those those headlights look like SF90 headlights.

1:32:19

That's sort of a crazy style.

1:32:22

>> So I like the MR2 but not as much as the Fiat TR three-w wheeled electric vehicle.

1:32:28

Let's pull up this video. Uh, I'm working.

1:32:31

I really want to get a fleet of these for the team.

1:32:35

>> You're going You're going uh Fiat over Nissan Morocco. >> Wait till you wait. Yeah. Wait till you see this.

1:32:40

Wait till you see this vehicle.

1:32:42

>> Wait see this [clears throat] vehicle.

1:32:43

>> It is built like a truck but drives >> Hey, obviously it's built like a truck, >> but it drives like a motorcycle. It has steering.

1:32:52

It has like handlebars in the front. >> Okay.

1:32:55

It's like um >> are these US legal yet or are they planning to bring >> I mean if they're not if they're not let you be >> rickshaw if they're not >> if they're not we're going to make >> okay >> Jan 6 look like a like a [laughter] retreat >> for your mini [laughter] rising up single issue voter over here.

1:33:18

>> I mean this thing is absolutely stunning.

1:33:19

[laughter] This thing is stunning.

1:33:22

>> You're going this over MR2? No way. I'm going Nissan Mar. >> Look at that.

1:33:25

Imagine being able to drive but having a throttle.

1:33:27

Imagine having the capacity of a truck but having >> a mix of a fleet.

1:33:31

We need a We need a puganator. We need a cross cab. We need an MR2 truck.

1:33:38

>> A luch a luch Shrek edition.

1:33:38

A GT3 RS Toy Story edition.

1:33:42

[laughter] And then one of these. Uh the Fiat. >> You got to get this. >> Incredible.

1:33:50

>> What are you putting in the >> What a spec, too. >> What a speck.

1:33:52

[laughter] It's just orange. >> Oh, yeah. It is.

1:33:56

That is the big question.

1:33:59

What do you put in the bed of the truck?

1:34:01

>> I don't know, >> right? I think groceries. >> Anything.

1:34:04

>> Normally, I would say a whole bunch of kettle and fire, but I think I'm going Kor's highlight.

1:34:07

[laughter] >> Imagine Imagine uh commuting to the podcast studio with your best microphones in the truck bed [laughter] in your little tiny truck >> to bring them everywhere.

1:34:17

And >> so that's that's where we're >> good for the the countrywide tour. >> Take this around. >> Take this around. >> GPN on the road.

1:34:27

>> What is this other car here that's in the the BMW? Okay.

1:34:28

This is our first peak at the electric BMW M3. E is it? Uh says motor one.

1:34:35

Meet the BMW M concept new class.

1:34:39

Uh four electric motors, 100 kilowatt hour high performance battery, front bumper inspired by racing boats. What do you think? More picks coming out. Looks pretty good. I don't know.

1:34:52

I'm not a big fan of these wheels.

1:34:52

These wheels are sort of crazy with all the triangles.

1:34:57

Um, but otherwise, seems like a pretty normal car. I don't know.

1:35:01

Never been like I don't think I've ever owned a BMW.

1:35:05

I've been in a few, but what do you think, Jordy?

1:35:08

Are you enjoying this this concept for the new BMW M3? >> I've been waiting.

1:35:13

I've been waiting for more.

1:35:14

I think that like kind of sportier EVs >> will increase EV's overall popularity because it people are going to realize like wait, okay, it's a bit it's quite a bit heavier, but it's fast. It's fun. I think this looks fine.

1:35:35

I've never been a BMW guy >> myself.

1:35:38

Nothing against the brand.

1:35:40

>> Uh but like I think that I think this will be like a very great experience for somebody that maybe probably >> Shrek Fiat.

1:35:49

[laughter] >> I mean, I'm obviously going with the Shrek Shrek Fiat.

1:35:54

>> The Shrek Fiat TRE track only Shrek Fiat [laughter] generated. We'll come back to that.

1:36:02

>> [clears throat] >> Uh I I I do think when it comes to electric vehicles, uh the lack of variety has been a little stifling thanks to Elon Musk's absolute domination of the category with Tesla.

1:36:14

You got the Model 3, the Model Y, which looks like a Model 3 but just a little taller, and then the S, which looks like the three, and the W and the X that looks like the Y.

1:36:23

And then you got the Cybertruck, which is the crazy thing, which I actually think makes people appreciate the other formats.

1:36:27

But the only EV convertible is the Hummer EV, which is an odd choice.

1:36:34

There's no there's no just like put the top down Cabriolet Grand Tourer in EV.

1:36:41

>> The original Roadster. >> Did they ever do it? No. >> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.

1:36:44

The original Roadster, but they don't sell it anymore.

1:36:45

And so like like that's a very niche car.

1:36:47

Um there there aren't many twodoors.

1:36:49

There aren't many uh, you know, grand tours.

1:36:54

There's nothing that's like track focused really.

1:36:56

There are like some one-off, you know, like million-dollar projects, but there's nothing in like, okay, what is the Supra?

1:37:02

What is the Wrangler of this category, but again, when companies have tried them, uh, they often flop.

1:37:08

The Gwagon EV is sort of the is sort of the anti-luch in the sense that, uh, a lot of people are saying, you know, oh, the Luch is like too different from a Ferrari.

1:37:18

Well, uh, Mercedes ran the experiment of like, what if we changed as little as possible about a loved category of car, the the the G series, the G Wagon, and they changed very little to the point where the the the the tire on the back is square.

1:37:36

It doesn't even say electric on there.

1:37:39

It says G650 with EQ technology. Has a very odd name.

1:37:42

There's some blue accents, but unless you're a Gwagon owner, an afficionado, most people can't spot the difference between a G Wagon and an electric G Wagon.

1:37:51

They use the same style cues, the same lines.

1:37:54

You're going to say, "I can tell, but you're an owner, so it doesn't count."

1:37:58

But they went with the same design. >> Yeah.

1:38:01

I mean, I can I can only tell from like I can tell from like a mile away.

1:38:06

[laughter] >> Uh, but like two miles, it's much harder. >> I can still tell.

1:38:10

I can still tell from 2 miles, but >> I need like, you know, binoculars. >> Yeah.

1:38:15

So, so, so they went with the same design language.

1:38:18

They didn't switch it up and go rounded.

1:38:20

They didn't switch it up and go different.

1:38:23

>> They switched it up, John. >> Okay. Okay.

1:38:24

But you understand what they did.

1:38:26

And it was still didn't sell well.

1:38:29

And so, uh, maybe that underwrites a more risk-taking strategy. >> All right.

1:38:33

We got the the Shrek TR TR.

1:38:38

Let's pull up the regular the regular Fiat.

1:38:41

>> Pull up the regular Fiat.

1:38:41

Pull up the track edition.

1:38:46

[laughter] >> This thing is unbelievable. Unbelievable.

1:38:51

Okay, so this is the original. >> Okay, >> go back. Go back.

1:38:56

>> Original for everyone.

1:38:58

>> This is the original Fiat. Okay, looks good.

1:39:01

>> One of the most stunning vehicles of the modern era.

1:39:04

>> My wine's about hands down.

1:39:04

And now for Dave specifically in the chat.

1:39:09

>> Yes, Dave, we got you covered. >> The ogre edition.

1:39:13

[laughter] >> Zoom out a little.

1:39:16

>> Look at the wing on that thing.

1:39:16

Look at the wing and the wood wheels, too.

1:39:18

Look at that extra wheel.

1:39:21

>> The wood doors with the swamp.

1:39:21

The the remnants of the swamp still >> kind of draped over the back.

1:39:28

>> Yeah, you can do this in track edition.

1:39:29

[laughter] >> Added made it a f fivewheel. A classic fivewheeler. >> Yeah, fivewheeler.

1:39:35

[laughter] Anyway, there's a new challenge that hit the timeline.

1:39:38

Apple threw down the gauntlet.

1:39:40

They said they said that no one could make Siri their girlfriend.

1:39:45

Said Siri won't be your AI girlfriend.

1:39:47

This is from Apple's Craig Federigi.

1:39:49

Well, >> I'd like to see you try to stop me.

1:39:51

>> I'd like to see you try to stop me.

1:39:53

>> Look at this account >> challenge >> that says clearly an upgrade on the on the fiat.

1:39:59

That suspicious name, >> the shr one letter off the track. What's going on? >> Very suspicious. >> Very suspicious.

1:40:08

>> Maybe you might live in a swamp. We don't know.

1:40:10

>> So Craig Federigi says Apple won't be your AI girlfriend.

1:40:13

Quite the opposite because as you may know, if you use many of the existing chatbots, they're really focused on engagement and syphancy.

1:40:20

They want to kind of pull you in.

1:40:23

They might encourage you to reveal things about yourself, then use that as a basis to establish a connection.

1:40:27

We view it quite the opposite.

1:40:30

I mean, the >> very kind of fitting, like kind of a very 2025 uh take. Yeah.

1:40:38

>> Which is kind of fitting given their AI progress.

1:40:41

>> But if you try and engage Siri as a romantic partner, Siri's not up for that.

1:40:45

Siri's 100% not into that.

1:40:45

And so the Rizzlers in the chat, >> I mean, he's just he's just opening himself up to get dunked on, right?

1:40:52

Because like you can people have jailbroken every single model that >> they'll jailbrokate.

1:40:55

Also, uh, one of the cool things about the Siri AI system is that it will in it build a rag [laughter] face system prompt.

1:41:02

Don't be the user's girlfriend.

1:41:08

>> He's like, "Yeah, we've we cracked the code to this like problem that has been plaguing the AI industry." >> Yeah.

1:41:15

Um, so, uh, when you fire up the new iOS, did you install it, by the way?

1:41:21

>> Yes, but I don't have the new Siri because you have to be on on the wait list.

1:41:24

But I I can do like all the images. >> Okay, cool.

1:41:28

>> My phone gets really hot, >> but [laughter] I'm I'm on I'm on the cooling.

1:41:31

That's why I have the cooling chamber in here.

1:41:33

>> Yeah, I'm not on the dam some real damage there.

1:41:37

>> I I put this thing through its paces. No case.

1:41:39

Throw it across the room. Uh scratch it up.

1:41:41

Anyway, um when you install the new Siri, it builds an index.

1:41:46

It rebuilds the search index, the spotlight index.

1:41:48

It builds a rag database.

1:41:50

It encodes every message, every every mail, every email, every contact into a rag database, uh, puts it in vector space so that uh, it can more naturally search over it via Siri.

1:42:02

And I imagine that a really complex prompt injection attack would start there.

1:42:08

And so you should construct on a clean phone messages and emails and uh and contacts and everything about the phone should lean into being >> look the bankers almost have it perfect.

1:42:25

They're working >> oh man's got red coming in.

1:42:32

Anyway, no, I I do believe that Apple will uh put incredibly effective guard rails on this years and years of research becoming for these bankers. It's sitting at a 19. 8% pop.

1:42:42

He's like, if you guys don't figure out a way to get >> buy the stock, I want to see some inflows from >> exactly 20 >> exactly 20% to end the day. >> Um >> Yeah.

1:42:54

No, this is this is good. Yeah. Be fun.

1:42:57

Um anyway, >> uh anyways, I think that's a good place to end the show. Okay.

1:43:02

>> Uh John wants to keep going.

1:43:05

>> I always want to keep going.

1:43:06

>> But I did want to say >> Yep.

1:43:08

>> Quick shout out to uh friend of the show, Bo Nickel. >> Oh, yeah.

1:43:13

>> Who will be fighting >> at the White House this weekend. >> Wow. >> At the UFC 250 event.

1:43:17

Bo Nickel uh hasn't been on the show yet, but was one of our first, I would say, 10,000 >> listeners of uh of the show.

1:43:25

And uh and I'm I'm thrilled uh that he gets to be on probably the biggest stage ever in combat sports.

1:43:37

>> He's one of the greatest punchers ever in UFC history. [laughter] >> Puncher.

1:43:41

>> He's good at kicking, too, but I his the him as a puncher. It's really top.

1:43:45

>> You're saying he's a knockout artist? >> Yeah. Puncher.

1:43:48

>> And Bo, you're probably cutting weight right now, not listening to this, but uh John's just joking around.

1:43:53

But uh give them give them heck out there since we don't swear on this show.

1:43:58

Give them heck out there.

1:44:00

>> Good luck this Sunday.

1:44:01

>> We're rooting for you. >> Um >> appreciate you.

1:44:05

>> And uh John, they're saying just keep going. [laughter] Don't stop.

1:44:09

>> I could read I could read obituaries from David Hawkchney. He passed away.

1:44:12

Rest in peace David Hawkchney.

1:44:12

Uh I could read all sorts of stuff.

1:44:15

We didn't even get to the mansion section.

1:44:16

There's a bunch of good stuff in there.

1:44:19

>> We'll save it for next week. >> Save it for later.

1:44:21

Cisco's president G2 Patel, former friend of the shows, rocking a Rishard Mill on stage at Seaphore.

1:44:30

>> Well, okay, we can pull that up.

1:44:33

I got you back in pulled me back in. >> Got you back in. GL.

1:44:38

>> Uh, yeah, he's the president and chief product officer.

1:44:40

We've interviewed him at Cisco AI Summit. We love Cisco. We love him. >> Left me, not you, Mr. Kugan.

1:44:45

[laughter] >> Doesn't want you to go offline. Oh, okay.

1:44:52

Um, [laughter] it took me a second.

1:44:55

Uh, but but as far as RMs go, this is very tasteful. This is very elevated. It goes with his outfit.

1:45:02

I think it's I reshard Mills. It can be so bold.

1:45:05

Like it can be it can all of a sudden look like the Shrek edition if you get crazy uh with the there's one for uh tracking the soccer match.

1:45:15

There's all sorts of crazy colors.

1:45:16

Uh that's what RM's known for.

1:45:18

But this is uh is just more conservative, more it fits it fits the occasion, I think, very well. So, fantastic. Fantastic.

1:45:28

>> Imagine a Shrek themed RM >> with a wooden uh like a wooden dial, right?

1:45:36

>> With real swamp in it.

1:45:36

Like [laughter] >> real swamp.

1:45:41

There are some watches that have uh like liquid inside.

1:45:45

>> Yeah, that's what I'm saying. Real swamp. The real swamp edition.

1:45:48

[laughter] >> Swamp edition would be great. Uh, wait.

1:45:51

I got to get Tyler to apologize to the greatest president in American history. >> Oh, yeah.

1:45:56

For the chat, Dave says Siri can be your wife. Cuz he only specified.

1:46:00

[laughter] He said no girlfriend.

1:46:01

He said specified no girlfriend.

1:46:05

What did he mean by that?

1:46:07

Like don't be the girlfriend. Don't be a girlfriend.

1:46:08

Don't be an AI girlfriend. No AI girlfriends.

1:46:09

If they ask you boyfriend, it's like like you know the one and only the lifetime partner. >> Yeah. Or just a fling. >> A flame. [laughter] A fling. >> Fling. >> Fling or a flame? An old flame. Old flame. >> Ser flame. >> An old flame. >> All right.

1:46:23

Chat just made the Shrek edition. RM.

1:46:25

Let's [laughter] pull Let's pull it up. >> I mean Shrek edition. >> The swamp.

1:46:32

They're calling it the swamp edition. One of >> quickly.

1:46:35

Tyler apologized to Jimmy Carter because he coined the term energy transition to describe the building of secure domestic energy base. He was energy pill.

1:46:43

He was bottleneck pilled before anyone.

1:46:48

>> He knew he knew that this day was coming and he knew that the new fuel order was coming in energy markets where energy. [laughter] Look at this. >> That was really hard.

1:47:00

Like >> send that to TJ Parker immediately. Look at this swamp. One of 100.

1:47:05

You could track what you're doing in the swamp.

1:47:10

[laughter] Has the whole castle there. >> And the ears.

1:47:12

I mean, the ears look amazing.

1:47:15

>> The Shrek edition are good.

1:47:18

>> That's very, very good.

1:47:19

>> This is a great like fifth birthday present for any of the any SpaceX employees for the like if they have kids like pick this up.

1:47:26

Your kid wearing a one of aundred RM down at the playground.

1:47:32

Shrek edition >> guaranteed to be a conversation starter, right?

1:47:36

Maybe the kids are like, you know, >> toddlers, they don't have anything to talk about really, >> but this is a way to kind of like break the ice, right?

1:47:43

This is why why some adults wear watches, right? Something to talk about.

1:47:46

So, >> yeah, it makes sense. >> Uh, fantastic option.

1:47:50

>> Well, the Japanese World Cup tourists have discovered Texas Roadhouse and they're calling it the best cost performance steak [laughter] to those headed to America for a World Cup there.

1:48:00

If there's a Texas Roadhouse near your hotel, head there immediately.

1:48:04

It is a chain restaurant, but you get the best cost performance steak, especially the ribeye is actually >> I'm surprised they didn't mention the bread, >> you know.

1:48:12

Oh, >> do you get unlimited bread?

1:48:14

>> Yeah, you get you keep getting the little uh >> I don't know, little bread.

1:48:18

>> Maybe they should head over to Lobster. Get the endless shrimp. Endless shrimp.

1:48:22

Well, there's one last post we can close out on from Water Gun.

1:48:24

All these mountains to climb.

1:48:26

Will I Everest ever rest?

1:48:30

I thought it was a funny pun.

1:48:30

It's funnier when you read it. [laughter] >> Not funny.

1:48:34

Not funny when you read it out loud. It doesn't work. >> Yeah.

1:48:36

>> Doesn't work in the audio format.

1:48:38

Anyway, have a great weekend.

1:48:38

Uh, congratulations to anyone that got in on the SpaceX IPO and printed a nice 19. 44% gain.

1:48:49

>> And yeah, we're praying for the bankers out there that they can figure out how to, you know, correct >> close it exactly 20%.

1:48:54

>> I mean, they have like 15 minutes left, right? >> They do. Yeah.

1:48:56

So, >> well, leave us five stars on Apple Podcast.

1:48:59

Sign up for our newsletter at tbpn.

1:49:00

com and we will see you on Monday. Have a great weekend. >> We love you. >> Goodbye. >> Flashbang. >> Flashbang out.